The EU and the US in tandem are going to defeat Putin. This is according to the French who seem confident. I'm not sure where the UK fits in. The only mention I've heard so far is that they won't let battle scarred refugees in.
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
The takeaway from that poll has nothing to do with our home grown pathological liar. It’s that 5% of Ukranians have no opinion of Putin either way and that smaller percentages have either not heard of him or view him positively.
i am actually beginning to seriously worry that people like HY are actually pleased about the war in Ukraine because it has changed the narrative for their beloved "Boris". The really sad thing is that it hasn't. He was shit, is shit and always will be shit. He has to go.
I really hope not as this war sickens one's mind and is quite the most awful situation with war in Europe an unbelievable development
The poll @HYUFD refers to cannot be translated into his comment though it is good to see the UK and Boris being appreciated
Notable that the Ukrainian Ambassador has gone to the Home Affairs Select Committee and politely suggested that we drop the visa program like everyone else...
They are polite and aren't going to roundly attack it, but the irritation is clear.
Yes, we should temporarily drop the visa requirement. And this is something that is entirely at the discretion of the Home Secretary.
But it is also not the most important thing we can do for Ukraine right now. People are successfully leaving the Ukraine, and are finding temporary shelter in Germany, Poland, etc. We can - and should - do more. But Ukrainians are not dying because of Ms Patel's inaction.
I do not think we should cancel Russian culture. We should put it in context, as this wonderful woman did.
If we don't cancel "All the Things She Said" by Tatu can we put it in the context of "would be shit if not for the fact that its a Russian song about lesbian love which is proper edgy"
Well, more specifically relevant, expansionist, militaristic regime seeking to establish an empire by force loses to nation pluckily defending its homeland*
*best not to look too closely at the details of how it did this, mind.
Stillwater - the fact that I disagree with your friend's belief that Gavin Newsom is presidential timber does NOT mean I don't appreciate you reporting your conversation with him. Which I think is pretty interesting.
So thanks for your post! And please post more when the spirit moves you.
Still an issue in some parts of the world. eg South Korea, once the poster boy of Covid control. They have just announced an extraordinary 342,000 new cases in one day, their highest ever, and one of the absolute biggest daily caseloads reported anywhere - eg India peaked about 400,000 a day, Brazil at about 250,000, and they are both vastly bigger than S Korea
it must be Omicron (BA2?) combined with a lack of prior immunity
And it is not some innocent explosion of mild colds, death rates are also shooting up dramatically (158 today, whereas S Korea is used to single digit death rates per day)
Combined with the 5th wave Covid calamity we are seeing in Hong Kong, this is deeply ominous for China.
They have zero prior immunity. As they keep telling us, proudly. If Omicron BA2 gets in to China, then it could be hellish for them; and it must be likely that it will do so, if it can easily cause such havoc in quarantined Hong Kong
Just to add to the joys of the world
When not if.
One of my family just contracted Omicron. Completely isolating (because of caring for an elderly relative) - literal 2 minute conversation at distance with someone who later tested positive.
Everyone is going to get this.....
Not necessarily, if you've been triple-vaxxed.
My own (unscientific) perspective is: The day after my mum died (non-covid), I spent the whole day my brother who was coughing, sneezing and feeling awful the whole time. I fully expected to catch his 'bad cold' but thankfully nothing - not a sniff(!)
Although he tested negative on LFTs, his GP suspected covid and we both think that's right, and that my 3 vaccinations protected me from catching it.
As I said, totally unscientific.
My 11 year old son got covid (almost certainly omicron) over New Year. We didn't engage in any social distancing at home, and neither my wife or I, nor our daughter got it.
We were all triple vaxxed, and were lucky.
Yes, my middle daughter has recently had it (again - it was delta last time). None of the rest of us did. Wife and I are vaxxed but none of the kids are old enough yet to have been. That said, oldest daughter did have a nasty cold. But tested negative throughout. I suspect through vaccination and/or repeated exposure we are all brimming with antibodies at the moment.
Exactly.
I'm sure my wife and I sucked in omicron particles, which were swiftly identified and neutralized.
For us, it acted as an unnoticeable booster shot.
And this is one of the reasons why - even with an R0 of 7 - covid fades fairly quickly in a well vaccinated population.
It was my fervent wish, once it was upon us, that omicron would turn out to be the vaccination for the anti-vaxxers, and a booster for the rest of us, without overwhelming our hospital systems. It seems to have mostly followed that course.
AIUI viruses tend to get better at spreading and less deadly over time. The rationale for this is that if viruses are bad at spreading they die out because they run out of hosts. If they are good at spreading but highly deadly, they kill off their hosts before they can spread. The only way for a virus to survive in the long run is therefore to be good at spreading but less deadly. This seems to be the pattern as Covid-19 develops.
That holds in general but NOT for COVID. For it to hold true, the high IFR has to adversely impact transmission. But SAR-CoV-2 is transmitted before serious morbidity and mortality sets in, so there is virtually no adverse evolutionary pressure from its IFR, and the transmissibility/IFR characteristics of the virus are completely decoupled.
While that's true... a variant of Covid with milder symptoms (like Omicron) is less likely to cause behavioral change in its hosts.
Indeed, humans have been fast-forwarding evolution for millenia now. Its the basis of most agriculture, pets and yes it affects viruses too.
A virus which is causing serious morbidity and mortality before transmission may not prevent transmission from those originally infected but it does cause behavioural changes in others.
A variant that doesn't cause as serious morbidity and mortality causes fewer behavioural changes in others.
The EU and the US in tandem are going to defeat Putin. This is according to the French who seem confident. I'm not sure where the UK fits in. The only mention I've heard so far is that they won't let battle scarred refugees in.
LOL 😂
The UK fits in by being a key supplier of arms already and for years before now, even before the EU got involved.
The fact that Ukraine hasn't been overrun already is in part to the credit of Boris, Theresa May and David Cameron who all deserve credit (and I'm no fan of one of them normally but will give credit where its due).
The fact the French don't want to mention the UK doesn't change things.
Am laughing my ass off - welcome comic relief in these terrible times - at poster who habitually inundates PB with numbers, numbers, numbers, numbers, along with his endless interpretations, analysis, etc., etc., based on pure devotion to "true" facts . . . then whines and whimpers and wails and gnashes,etc., etc. when his numbers are questioned let alone refuted.
As Charlie Brown used to say, good grief!
Maybe he should have done a literature review first.
Or just said, oops I goofed, like several here have already suggested?
After all, confession IS good for the soul . . . a theological wrinkle PB's leading theologian has overlooked?
Talking of Russian culture I watched the Soviet “Soy Cuba” (I am Cuba) - a lot of it is moderately tedious agitprop, but then there are astonishing gems like this insane tracking shot - in those days a practical track - no ILM special effects:
Saw it with a Cuban American some 35 years ago in the Soviet Embassy in Geneva, dubbed in Russian with English subtitles. Super long, boring mostly, but some fascinating parts, including the portrayal (in English) of the American GIs (as they spoke in English, with English subtitles as translations of the Russian translation - the spoken word and the subtitles did not match!)
It is a brilliant film and on MUBI in a restored print. Certainly agitprop, but a remarkable piece of cinematography. Made in the early hopeful days of the Cuban revolution, it makes sense of why so many wanted the fall of the old regime.
Once, ever such a long time ago I read an article about Cuba which extolled the Batista regime, especially how it was friendly with the Americans, and how the Americans loved having such a warm and cuddly place, where one could have such fun, only 90 miles from Florida. I was young and naive then but even so I could sense something wrong and as my leftist views were getting firmed up, when Castro arrived and took over I thought: "Good"!
I do not think we should cancel Russian culture. We should put it in context, as this wonderful woman did.
If we don't cancel "All the Things She Said" by Tatu can we put it in the context of "would be shit if not for the fact that its a Russian song about lesbian love which is proper edgy"
Listening to PMQ’s, At one point Boris added a completely unnecessary “and the leader of the opposition would still have us locked down” to one of his answers to an unrelated question.
It did occur to me, knowing how Boris’s mind works, that he might be processing some bad news on Covid, that wasn’t yet public.
He tends to vocalise his fears in a rather unprompted, revealing way, especially when under scrutiny.
I think he’s worried about where we’re headed re: Covid.
Yes, he did. Leon is freaking out about nothing, its no surprise to see you do the same.
The pandemic is OVER. Its been over for over a year now. Its endemic now, there will be swings and roundabout but needs to be filed under: who gives a fuck?
In #Ukraine, Belarusians have created a separate battalion named after Kastus Kalinouski to defend Kyiv. According to them, more than 200 Belarusians have joined the territorial defense of Ukraine, another 300 intend to go to Ukraine. https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1501571907296104456
I do not think we should cancel Russian culture. We should put it in context, as this wonderful woman did.
If we don't cancel "All the Things She Said" by Tatu can we put it in the context of "would be shit if not for the fact that its a Russian song about lesbian love which is proper edgy"
I do not think we should cancel Russian culture. We should put it in context, as this wonderful woman did.
If we don't cancel "All the Things She Said" by Tatu can we put it in the context of "would be shit if not for the fact that its a Russian song about lesbian love which is proper edgy"
Well, more specifically relevant, expansionist, militaristic regime seeking to establish an empire by force loses to nation pluckily defending its homeland*
*best not to look too closely at the details of how it did this, mind.
This could be my edgiest ever post - half PB think 1812 overture is inappropriate right now, the other half claim it actually represents the Ukrainian struggle against invader.
The EU and the US in tandem are going to defeat Putin. This is according to the French who seem confident. I'm not sure where the UK fits in. The only mention I've heard so far is that they won't let battle scarred refugees in.
LOL 😂
The UK fits in by being a key supplier of arms already and for years before now, even before the EU got involved.
The fact that Ukraine hasn't been overrun already is in part to the credit of Boris, Theresa May and David Cameron who all deserve credit (and I'm no fan of one of them normally but will give credit where its due).
The fact the French don't want to mention the UK doesn't change things.
I wouldn't take Roger too seriously on this one, the French press has - in general - been full of praise for the UK over its Ukraine stance. Indeed, it's amazing how Putin has managed to get the UK and the countries of the EU back on friendly terms again.
Listening to PMQ’s, At one point Boris added a completely unnecessary “and the leader of the opposition would still have us locked down” to one of his answers to an unrelated question.
It did occur to me, knowing how Boris’s mind works, that he might be processing some bad news on Covid, that wasn’t yet public.
He tends to vocalise his fears in a rather revealing way, especially when under scrutiny.
I certainly know, and know of, more people with Covid now than a month or so ago. Mild, but they've got it.
Yes, he did. Leon is freaking out about nothing, its no surprise to see you do the same.
The pandemic is OVER. Its been over for over a year now. Its endemic now, there will be swings and roundabout but needs to be filed under: who gives a fuck?
He's fecking amazing isn't he? That degree in classics has qualified him to do so much, particularly in the minds of the pathologically gullible.
Yes, he did. Leon is freaking out about nothing, its no surprise to see you do the same.
The pandemic is OVER. Its been over for over a year now. Its endemic now, there will be swings and roundabout but needs to be filed under: who gives a fuck?
I am merely supplying data, and noting a tendency. If that is "freaking out" then you should prepare yourself for when I really do freak out. It's a spectacle
There is a cause for concern. That is all. It is dwarfed by the Ukraine crisis but unfortunately it does exist, alongside
Yes, he did. Leon is freaking out about nothing, its no surprise to see you do the same.
The pandemic is OVER. Its been over for over a year now. Its endemic now, there will be swings and roundabout but needs to be filed under: who gives a fuck?
He's fecking amazing isn't he? That degree in classics has qualified him to do so much, particularly in the minds of the pathologically gullible.
I'd put the fact that his government were the first in the world to order and rollout vaccines as more important than his degree, but I know you believe that Boris can do no right so sure, whatever someone as gullible as you wants to believe.
Just because you dislike someone, doesn't mean you shouldn't give them credit where its due. I've done so in this thread, the fact you're unable to do so just shows you to be petty rather than intelligent.
Still an issue in some parts of the world. eg South Korea, once the poster boy of Covid control. They have just announced an extraordinary 342,000 new cases in one day, their highest ever, and one of the absolute biggest daily caseloads reported anywhere - eg India peaked about 400,000 a day, Brazil at about 250,000, and they are both vastly bigger than S Korea
it must be Omicron (BA2?) combined with a lack of prior immunity
And it is not some innocent explosion of mild colds, death rates are also shooting up dramatically (158 today, whereas S Korea is used to single digit death rates per day)
Combined with the 5th wave Covid calamity we are seeing in Hong Kong, this is deeply ominous for China.
They have zero prior immunity. As they keep telling us, proudly. If Omicron BA2 gets in to China, then it could be hellish for them; and it must be likely that it will do so, if it can easily cause such havoc in quarantined Hong Kong
Just to add to the joys of the world
When not if.
One of my family just contracted Omicron. Completely isolating (because of caring for an elderly relative) - literal 2 minute conversation at distance with someone who later tested positive.
Everyone is going to get this.....
Not necessarily, if you've been triple-vaxxed.
My own (unscientific) perspective is: The day after my mum died (non-covid), I spent the whole day my brother who was coughing, sneezing and feeling awful the whole time. I fully expected to catch his 'bad cold' but thankfully nothing - not a sniff(!)
Although he tested negative on LFTs, his GP suspected covid and we both think that's right, and that my 3 vaccinations protected me from catching it.
As I said, totally unscientific.
My 11 year old son got covid (almost certainly omicron) over New Year. We didn't engage in any social distancing at home, and neither my wife or I, nor our daughter got it.
We were all triple vaxxed, and were lucky.
Yes, my middle daughter has recently had it (again - it was delta last time). None of the rest of us did. Wife and I are vaxxed but none of the kids are old enough yet to have been. That said, oldest daughter did have a nasty cold. But tested negative throughout. I suspect through vaccination and/or repeated exposure we are all brimming with antibodies at the moment.
Exactly.
I'm sure my wife and I sucked in omicron particles, which were swiftly identified and neutralized.
For us, it acted as an unnoticeable booster shot.
And this is one of the reasons why - even with an R0 of 7 - covid fades fairly quickly in a well vaccinated population.
It was my fervent wish, once it was upon us, that omicron would turn out to be the vaccination for the anti-vaxxers, and a booster for the rest of us, without overwhelming our hospital systems. It seems to have mostly followed that course.
AIUI viruses tend to get better at spreading and less deadly over time. The rationale for this is that if viruses are bad at spreading they die out because they run out of hosts. If they are good at spreading but highly deadly, they kill off their hosts before they can spread. The only way for a virus to survive in the long run is therefore to be good at spreading but less deadly. This seems to be the pattern as Covid-19 develops.
That holds in general but NOT for COVID. For it to hold true, the high IFR has to adversely impact transmission. But SAR-CoV-2 is transmitted before serious morbidity and mortality sets in, so there is virtually no adverse evolutionary pressure from its IFR, and the transmissibility/IFR characteristics of the virus are completely decoupled.
While that's true... a variant of Covid with milder symptoms (like Omicron) is less likely to cause behavioral change in its hosts.
Absolutely. What I am saying is that, for viruses like COVID that spread before morbidity/mortality, evolutionary pressure is expressed primarily at the level of effective transmission, not morbidity/mortality
The EU and the US in tandem are going to defeat Putin. This is according to the French who seem confident. I'm not sure where the UK fits in. The only mention I've heard so far is that they won't let battle scarred refugees in.
Yes, no idea, all those Ukranian SoF trained by the SAS over the past 7 years, armed with British military equipment, who are primarily credited with the failure of the Russian logistics and inability of VDV to take key airports....what have the UK done to help defeat Putin....or the 2000+ anti-tank missile systems (with another 1600 going out now).
The Germans sent them some party hats and mouldy soviet tech from 1980s that they found in an East Germany warehouse.
We’ve scrapped all rules and most of us have stopped wearing masks or being cautious (see the Tube). It would be amazing if there weren’t a bit of an uptick. But this will immunise the hold outs, and then it will be summer, and then it will be fine.
The EU and the US in tandem are going to defeat Putin. This is according to the French who seem confident. I'm not sure where the UK fits in. The only mention I've heard so far is that they won't let battle scarred refugees in.
Still an issue in some parts of the world. eg South Korea, once the poster boy of Covid control. They have just announced an extraordinary 342,000 new cases in one day, their highest ever, and one of the absolute biggest daily caseloads reported anywhere - eg India peaked about 400,000 a day, Brazil at about 250,000, and they are both vastly bigger than S Korea
it must be Omicron (BA2?) combined with a lack of prior immunity
And it is not some innocent explosion of mild colds, death rates are also shooting up dramatically (158 today, whereas S Korea is used to single digit death rates per day)
Combined with the 5th wave Covid calamity we are seeing in Hong Kong, this is deeply ominous for China.
They have zero prior immunity. As they keep telling us, proudly. If Omicron BA2 gets in to China, then it could be hellish for them; and it must be likely that it will do so, if it can easily cause such havoc in quarantined Hong Kong
Just to add to the joys of the world
When not if.
One of my family just contracted Omicron. Completely isolating (because of caring for an elderly relative) - literal 2 minute conversation at distance with someone who later tested positive.
Everyone is going to get this.....
Not necessarily, if you've been triple-vaxxed.
My own (unscientific) perspective is: The day after my mum died (non-covid), I spent the whole day my brother who was coughing, sneezing and feeling awful the whole time. I fully expected to catch his 'bad cold' but thankfully nothing - not a sniff(!)
Although he tested negative on LFTs, his GP suspected covid and we both think that's right, and that my 3 vaccinations protected me from catching it.
As I said, totally unscientific.
My 11 year old son got covid (almost certainly omicron) over New Year. We didn't engage in any social distancing at home, and neither my wife or I, nor our daughter got it.
We were all triple vaxxed, and were lucky.
Yes, my middle daughter has recently had it (again - it was delta last time). None of the rest of us did. Wife and I are vaxxed but none of the kids are old enough yet to have been. That said, oldest daughter did have a nasty cold. But tested negative throughout. I suspect through vaccination and/or repeated exposure we are all brimming with antibodies at the moment.
Exactly.
I'm sure my wife and I sucked in omicron particles, which were swiftly identified and neutralized.
For us, it acted as an unnoticeable booster shot.
And this is one of the reasons why - even with an R0 of 7 - covid fades fairly quickly in a well vaccinated population.
It was my fervent wish, once it was upon us, that omicron would turn out to be the vaccination for the anti-vaxxers, and a booster for the rest of us, without overwhelming our hospital systems. It seems to have mostly followed that course.
AIUI viruses tend to get better at spreading and less deadly over time. The rationale for this is that if viruses are bad at spreading they die out because they run out of hosts. If they are good at spreading but highly deadly, they kill off their hosts before they can spread. The only way for a virus to survive in the long run is therefore to be good at spreading but less deadly. This seems to be the pattern as Covid-19 develops.
That holds in general but NOT for COVID. For it to hold true, the high IFR has to adversely impact transmission. But SAR-CoV-2 is transmitted before serious morbidity and mortality sets in, so there is virtually no adverse evolutionary pressure from its IFR, and the transmissibility/IFR characteristics of the virus are completely decoupled.
While that's true... a variant of Covid with milder symptoms (like Omicron) is less likely to cause behavioral change in its hosts.
Absolutely. What I am saying is that, for viruses like COVID that spread before morbidity/mortality, evolutionary pressure is expressed primarily at the level of effective transmission, not morbidity/mortality
But for a virus that spreads amongst humans morbidity/mortality changes human behaviour which thus changes effective transmission, so you can't really separate the two.
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
I wonder which would annoy Macron more, that they ignored him or if Boris beat him?
I think Macron can feasibly claim some of the credit for the recent EU stuff, as he is currently chair of the committee, and has done much in the role.
A poll of views of EU countries would be quite interesting, however.
The EU and the US in tandem are going to defeat Putin. This is according to the French who seem confident. I'm not sure where the UK fits in. The only mention I've heard so far is that they won't let battle scarred refugees in.
LOL 😂
The UK fits in by being a key supplier of arms already and for years before now, even before the EU got involved.
The fact that Ukraine hasn't been overrun already is in part to the credit of Boris, Theresa May and David Cameron who all deserve credit (and I'm no fan of one of them normally but will give credit where its due).
The fact the French don't want to mention the UK doesn't change things.
I wouldn't take Roger too seriously on this one, the French press has - in general - been full of praise for the UK over its Ukraine stance. Indeed, it's amazing how Putin has managed to get the UK and the countries of the EU back on friendly terms again.
Barty is Roger's mirror image of extreme Brexity sentiment. Roger naively wishes to believe anything positive about the EU and France, Barty naively wishes to believe anything negative about the EU and France. Neither understand subtle nuance.
I do not think we should cancel Russian culture. We should put it in context, as this wonderful woman did.
If we don't cancel "All the Things She Said" by Tatu can we put it in the context of "would be shit if not for the fact that its a Russian song about lesbian love which is proper edgy"
The EU and the US in tandem are going to defeat Putin. This is according to the French who seem confident. I'm not sure where the UK fits in. The only mention I've heard so far is that they won't let battle scarred refugees in.
Yes, no idea, all those Ukranian SoF trained by the SAS over the past 7 years, armed with British military equipment, who are primarily credited with the failure of the Russian logistics and inability of VDV to take key airports....what have the UK done to help.
The EU and the US in tandem are going to defeat Putin. This is according to the French who seem confident. I'm not sure where the UK fits in. The only mention I've heard so far is that they won't let battle scarred refugees in.
Yes, no idea, all those Ukranian SoF trained by the SAS over the past 7 years, armed with British military equipment, who are primarily credited with the failure of the Russian logistics and inability of VDV to take key airports....what have the UK done to help.
But who supplied the Lepage 344mm Creme Brûlée guns that reduced entire divisions of the Russian Army to Left Bank Existentialists with a single shot, eh?
Malmesbury's summary already shared this. I find it difficult to muster any interest.
I see someone is still using reporting day numbers.
{releases the flying, mutant lawyers} Fly my Pretties!!!!!, Fly!!!!!
If you're referring to me -
"Cases up (46%), deaths up (19.5%), admissions up (12.2%)"
- all those percentages are week-on-week
What is Going on? Is it still Omicron out there causing this? Is it just not national though hotspots where locally the vaccine is wearing off in old people 🤷♀️
It’s not to do with more variation but vaccine waning isn’t it?
I do not think we should cancel Russian culture. We should put it in context, as this wonderful woman did.
If we don't cancel "All the Things She Said" by Tatu can we put it in the context of "would be shit if not for the fact that its a Russian song about lesbian love which is proper edgy"
I do not think we should cancel Russian culture. We should put it in context, as this wonderful woman did.
If we don't cancel "All the Things She Said" by Tatu can we put it in the context of "would be shit if not for the fact that its a Russian song about lesbian love which is proper edgy"
The "man" listened to classical music so it's a near certainty.
I thought he wrote about it in quite candid terms..... And it is something that the current Russian government has tried to edit out of history.
The 1812 Overture isn't my cup of tea, but it does celebrate the success of a plucky nation defending itself against invasion by a powerful aggressor.
Although Prokofiev was born in a small village in the Donetsk oblast, I do not think that his music for the Russian war film Alexander Nevsky would be appropriate to program in a choral concert in current circumstances.
The EU and the US in tandem are going to defeat Putin. This is according to the French who seem confident. I'm not sure where the UK fits in. The only mention I've heard so far is that they won't let battle scarred refugees in.
LOL 😂
The UK fits in by being a key supplier of arms already and for years before now, even before the EU got involved.
The fact that Ukraine hasn't been overrun already is in part to the credit of Boris, Theresa May and David Cameron who all deserve credit (and I'm no fan of one of them normally but will give credit where its due).
The fact the French don't want to mention the UK doesn't change things.
I wouldn't take Roger too seriously on this one, the French press has - in general - been full of praise for the UK over its Ukraine stance. Indeed, it's amazing how Putin has managed to get the UK and the countries of the EU back on friendly terms again.
Barty is Roger's mirror image of extreme Brexity sentiment. Roger naively wishes to believe anything positive about the EU and France, Barty naively wishes to believe anything negative about the EU and France. Neither understand subtle nuance.
Utter bollocks from you as usual.
I've been praising the EU and its constituent nations for their u-turn in recent weeks and for standing firm with the UK and USA in allying with Ukraine and against Russia. I haven't got a bad word to say about any EU nation in this for how they're behaving right now, I have nothing but praise for the entire Western world in standing up for Ukraine at the moment.
You don't understand any nuance, let alone subtle. Thus you speak with absurd absolutes where I become this fictional parody you've invented, or where the PM can do absolutely nothing right because he's a clown or . . . whatever floats your boat. People are complicated and not as simplistic as you like to pretend.
Yes, he did. Leon is freaking out about nothing, its no surprise to see you do the same.
The pandemic is OVER. Its been over for over a year now. Its endemic now, there will be swings and roundabout but needs to be filed under: who gives a fuck?
He's fecking amazing isn't he? That degree in classics has qualified him to do so much, particularly in the minds of the pathologically gullible.
I'd put the fact that his government were the first in the world to order and rollout vaccines as more important than his degree, but I know you believe that Boris can do no right so sure, whatever someone as gullible as you wants to believe.
Just because you dislike someone, doesn't mean you shouldn't give them credit where its due. I've done so in this thread, the fact you're unable to do so just shows you to be petty rather than intelligent.
I have actually grown to quite like the person I think you are Barty, but I think you accusing me of being gullible when you believe in Brexit, and probably fairies at the end of the garden and the moon made of blue cheeses is a little rich.
After today's revelations I have come to the conclusion Patel's days as a minister are numbered
She has been besieged with criticism from across the house and normally any cabinet minister in this situation would be seen next to the Prime Minister at PMQs as evidence of confidence, but Patel was not anywhere to be seen
Reports this morning of cabinet colleagues of Patel pilling into her in cabinet was not unexpected
The announcement that Michael Gove will now take responsibility for the sponsorship visa scheme and former mp, Richard Harrington has been granted a peerage and appointed to the specific office of minister for refugees
Ben Wallace confirmed at the dispatch box that the defence - home - foreign office are meeting this afternoon to coordinate the refugees response
Put all that together and Patel is marginalised
Bring back Theresa May. To the Home Office, that is.
God no - Theresa and her 'Go Home' vans?!
Slightly meant in jest, but TM did seem to be in command of the department. And commanded respect when she was there. PP simply doesn't. May not all be her fault but politics is unforgiving. And her reputation - not high to begin with - is shredded. Needs to go. Dame Priti has a nice ring.
I thought we'd stopped giving peerages to bullies ?
After today's revelations I have come to the conclusion Patel's days as a minister are numbered
She has been besieged with criticism from across the house and normally any cabinet minister in this situation would be seen next to the Prime Minister at PMQs as evidence of confidence, but Patel was not anywhere to be seen
Reports this morning of cabinet colleagues of Patel pilling into her in cabinet was not unexpected
The announcement that Michael Gove will now take responsibility for the sponsorship visa scheme and former mp, Richard Harrington has been granted a peerage and appointed to the specific office of minister for refugees
Ben Wallace confirmed at the dispatch box that the defence - home - foreign office are meeting this afternoon to coordinate the refugees response
Put all that together and Patel is marginalised
Bring back Theresa May. To the Home Office, that is.
God no - Theresa and her 'Go Home' vans?!
Slightly meant in jest, but TM did seem to be in command of the department. And commanded respect when she was there. PP simply doesn't. May not all be her fault but politics is unforgiving. And her reputation - not high to begin with - is shredded. Needs to go. Dame Priti has a nice ring.
I thought we'd stopped giving peerages to bullies ?
I do not think we should cancel Russian culture. We should put it in context, as this wonderful woman did.
If we don't cancel "All the Things She Said" by Tatu can we put it in the context of "would be shit if not for the fact that its a Russian song about lesbian love which is proper edgy"
Well, more specifically relevant, expansionist, militaristic regime seeking to establish an empire by force loses to nation pluckily defending its homeland*
*best not to look too closely at the details of how it did this, mind.
This could be my edgiest ever post - half PB think 1812 overture is inappropriate right now, the other half claim it actually represents the Ukrainian struggle against invader.
I'm with Tchaikovsky - "very loud and noisy, but without artistic merit".
We’ve scrapped all rules and most of us have stopped wearing masks or being cautious (see the Tube). It would be amazing if there weren’t a bit of an uptick. But this will immunise the hold outs, and then it will be summer, and then it will be fine.
Yes, I still believe that is the likely scenario. I am merely pointing out that it is not the only possible scenario
The infectivity of BA2 is insane. Something like twenty times - I have read (not checked) - as infectious as Covid Classic, the original. And some anecdata points to it being more virulent than BA1. And it reinfects
Some reading:
"The Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has rapidly replaced the Delta variant as a dominating SARS-CoV-2 variant because of natural selection, which favors the variant with higher infectivity and stronger vaccine breakthrough ability. Omicron has three lineages or subvariants, BA.1 (B.1.1.529.1), BA.2 (B.1.1.529.2), and BA.3 (B.1.1.529.3).
Among them, BA.1 is the currently prevailing subvariant. BA.2 shares 32 mutations with BA.1 but has 28 distinct ones. BA.3 shares most of its mutations with BA.1 and BA.2 except for one. BA.2 is found to be able to alarmingly reinfect patients originally infected by Omicron BA.1. An important question is whether BA.2 or BA.3 will become a new dominating “variant of concern”. Currently, no experimental data has been reported about BA.2 and BA.3.
We construct a novel algebraic topology-based deep learning model trained with tens of thousands of mutational and deep mutational data to systematically evaluate BA.2’s and BA.3’s infectivity, vaccine breakthrough capability, and antibody resistance. Our comparative analysis of all main variants namely, Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Lambda, Mu, BA.1, BA.2, and BA.3, unveils that BA.2 is about 1.5 and 4.2 times as contagious as BA.1 and Delta, respectively. It is also 30% and 17-fold more capable than BA.1 and Delta, respectively, to escape current vaccines.
Therefore, we project that Omicron BA.2 is on its path to becoming the next dominating variant. We forecast that like Omicron BA.1, BA.2 will also seriously compromise most existing mAbs, except for sotrovimab developed by GlaxoSmithKline."
The EU and the US in tandem are going to defeat Putin. This is according to the French who seem confident. I'm not sure where the UK fits in. The only mention I've heard so far is that they won't let battle scarred refugees in.
LOL 😂
The UK fits in by being a key supplier of arms already and for years before now, even before the EU got involved.
The fact that Ukraine hasn't been overrun already is in part to the credit of Boris, Theresa May and David Cameron who all deserve credit (and I'm no fan of one of them normally but will give credit where its due).
The fact the French don't want to mention the UK doesn't change things.
@Roger is someone who wants to seek out division when most of us want unity and accept UK-EU-US-NATO are all contributing to defeat this child killing monster in the Kremlin
Still an issue in some parts of the world. eg South Korea, once the poster boy of Covid control. They have just announced an extraordinary 342,000 new cases in one day, their highest ever, and one of the absolute biggest daily caseloads reported anywhere - eg India peaked about 400,000 a day, Brazil at about 250,000, and they are both vastly bigger than S Korea
it must be Omicron (BA2?) combined with a lack of prior immunity
And it is not some innocent explosion of mild colds, death rates are also shooting up dramatically (158 today, whereas S Korea is used to single digit death rates per day)
Combined with the 5th wave Covid calamity we are seeing in Hong Kong, this is deeply ominous for China.
They have zero prior immunity. As they keep telling us, proudly. If Omicron BA2 gets in to China, then it could be hellish for them; and it must be likely that it will do so, if it can easily cause such havoc in quarantined Hong Kong
Just to add to the joys of the world
When not if.
One of my family just contracted Omicron. Completely isolating (because of caring for an elderly relative) - literal 2 minute conversation at distance with someone who later tested positive.
Everyone is going to get this.....
Not necessarily, if you've been triple-vaxxed.
My own (unscientific) perspective is: The day after my mum died (non-covid), I spent the whole day my brother who was coughing, sneezing and feeling awful the whole time. I fully expected to catch his 'bad cold' but thankfully nothing - not a sniff(!)
Although he tested negative on LFTs, his GP suspected covid and we both think that's right, and that my 3 vaccinations protected me from catching it.
As I said, totally unscientific.
My 11 year old son got covid (almost certainly omicron) over New Year. We didn't engage in any social distancing at home, and neither my wife or I, nor our daughter got it.
We were all triple vaxxed, and were lucky.
Yes, my middle daughter has recently had it (again - it was delta last time). None of the rest of us did. Wife and I are vaxxed but none of the kids are old enough yet to have been. That said, oldest daughter did have a nasty cold. But tested negative throughout. I suspect through vaccination and/or repeated exposure we are all brimming with antibodies at the moment.
Exactly.
I'm sure my wife and I sucked in omicron particles, which were swiftly identified and neutralized.
For us, it acted as an unnoticeable booster shot.
And this is one of the reasons why - even with an R0 of 7 - covid fades fairly quickly in a well vaccinated population.
It was my fervent wish, once it was upon us, that omicron would turn out to be the vaccination for the anti-vaxxers, and a booster for the rest of us, without overwhelming our hospital systems. It seems to have mostly followed that course.
AIUI viruses tend to get better at spreading and less deadly over time. The rationale for this is that if viruses are bad at spreading they die out because they run out of hosts. If they are good at spreading but highly deadly, they kill off their hosts before they can spread. The only way for a virus to survive in the long run is therefore to be good at spreading but less deadly. This seems to be the pattern as Covid-19 develops.
That holds in general but NOT for COVID. For it to hold true, the high IFR has to adversely impact transmission. But SAR-CoV-2 is transmitted before serious morbidity and mortality sets in, so there is virtually no adverse evolutionary pressure from its IFR, and the transmissibility/IFR characteristics of the virus are completely decoupled.
While that's true... a variant of Covid with milder symptoms (like Omicron) is less likely to cause behavioral change in its hosts.
Absolutely. What I am saying is that, for viruses like COVID that spread before morbidity/mortality, evolutionary pressure is expressed primarily at the level of effective transmission, not morbidity/mortality
But for a virus that spreads amongst humans morbidity/mortality changes human behaviour which thus changes effective transmission, so you can't really separate the two.
Hence my use of the term 'effective transmission', which incorporates the impact of interventions both medical and non-medical.
The EU and the US in tandem are going to defeat Putin. This is according to the French who seem confident. I'm not sure where the UK fits in. The only mention I've heard so far is that they won't let battle scarred refugees in.
LOL 😂
The UK fits in by being a key supplier of arms already and for years before now, even before the EU got involved.
The fact that Ukraine hasn't been overrun already is in part to the credit of Boris, Theresa May and David Cameron who all deserve credit (and I'm no fan of one of them normally but will give credit where its due).
The fact the French don't want to mention the UK doesn't change things.
I wouldn't take Roger too seriously on this one, the French press has - in general - been full of praise for the UK over its Ukraine stance. Indeed, it's amazing how Putin has managed to get the UK and the countries of the EU back on friendly terms again.
Barty is Roger's mirror image of extreme Brexity sentiment. Roger naively wishes to believe anything positive about the EU and France, Barty naively wishes to believe anything negative about the EU and France. Neither understand subtle nuance.
Utter bollocks from you as usual.
I've been praising the EU and its constituent nations for their u-turn in recent weeks and for standing firm with the UK and USA in allying with Ukraine and against Russia. I haven't got a bad word to say about any EU nation in this for how they're behaving right now, I have nothing but praise for the entire Western world in standing up for Ukraine at the moment.
You don't understand any nuance, let alone subtle. Thus you speak with absurd absolutes where I become this fictional parody you've invented, or where the PM can do absolutely nothing right because he's a clown or . . . whatever floats your boat. People are complicated and not as simplistic as you like to pretend.
lol. Calm down dear. You are Roger in a parallel universe. It is an amusing thought n'est pas? In that parallel universe, where everything is a mirror of this one, you would have had the pleasure of being on the winning side in that one too! How cool is that?
This could be my edgiest ever post - half PB think 1812 overture is inappropriate right now, the other half claim it actually represents the Ukrainian struggle against invader.
If they play just the first bit most people wouldn't know it was the 1812
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
I wonder which would annoy Macron more, that they ignored him or if Boris beat him?
I think Macron can feasibly claim some of the credit for the recent EU stuff, as he is currently chair of the committee, and has done much in the role.
A poll of views of EU countries would be quite interesting, however.
I think Macron has realised - first among our Continental cousins - that Putin is quite mad.
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
I wonder which would annoy Macron more, that they ignored him or if Boris beat him?
I think Macron can feasibly claim some of the credit for the recent EU stuff, as he is currently chair of the committee, and has done much in the role.
A poll of views of EU countries would be quite interesting, however.
I think Macron has realised - first among our Continental cousins - that Putin is quite mad.
I don't think he is mad. He is a rational actor with biases. It is just this situation brought out all his biases at once to make a really bad decision.
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
I wonder which would annoy Macron more, that they ignored him or if Boris beat him?
I think Macron can feasibly claim some of the credit for the recent EU stuff, as he is currently chair of the committee, and has done much in the role.
A poll of views of EU countries would be quite interesting, however.
I think Macron has realised - first among our Continental cousins - that Putin is quite mad.
Well he has had to listen to his rantings for hours now, both in person and on the phone.
- Cases up. R is above 1 in all regions, and in all age groups. The younger groups are increasing faster. - In hospital is up a bit. - Admission are up - R above 1 - MV beds is flat(ish) for the moment - Deaths are continuing the downward trajectory - the jump in "reporting day" was partially filling in a "hole" in the day of numbers
Yesterday:
Today
That being said, there are some indications that the long fall in deaths is slowing.
I point people to three sentences in that Michigan University pre-print
"BA.2 is found to be able to alarmingly reinfect patients originally infected by Omicron BA.1"
"BA.2 is about 1.5 and 4.2 times as contagious as BA.1 and Delta, respectively. It is also 30% and 17-fold more capable than BA.1 and Delta, respectively, to escape current vaccines."
"We forecast that like Omicron BA.1, BA.2 will also seriously compromise most existing mAbs, except for sotrovimab developed by GlaxoSmithKline."
I submit - without any *freaking out* - that this could be a problem
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
I wonder which would annoy Macron more, that they ignored him or if Boris beat him?
I think Macron can feasibly claim some of the credit for the recent EU stuff, as he is currently chair of the committee, and has done much in the role.
A poll of views of EU countries would be quite interesting, however.
I think Macron has realised - first among our Continental cousins - that Putin is quite mad.
A doctor I heard online commented that Putin's puffy, glassy appearance strongly reminded him of patients who are on steroids.
A side effect of these can be changes in personality.
Malmesbury's summary already shared this. I find it difficult to muster any interest.
I see someone is still using reporting day numbers.
{releases the flying, mutant lawyers} Fly my Pretties!!!!!, Fly!!!!!
If you're referring to me -
"Cases up (46%), deaths up (19.5%), admissions up (12.2%)"
- all those percentages are week-on-week
What is Going on? Is it still Omicron out there causing this? Is it just not national though hotspots where locally the vaccine is wearing off in old people 🤷♀️
It’s not to do with more variation but vaccine waning isn’t it?
It is nationally and across all age groups - see the R numbers for regions and ages.
The EU and the US in tandem are going to defeat Putin. This is according to the French who seem confident. I'm not sure where the UK fits in. The only mention I've heard so far is that they won't let battle scarred refugees in.
LOL 😂
The UK fits in by being a key supplier of arms already and for years before now, even before the EU got involved.
The fact that Ukraine hasn't been overrun already is in part to the credit of Boris, Theresa May and David Cameron who all deserve credit (and I'm no fan of one of them normally but will give credit where its due).
The fact the French don't want to mention the UK doesn't change things.
I wouldn't take Roger too seriously on this one, the French press has - in general - been full of praise for the UK over its Ukraine stance. Indeed, it's amazing how Putin has managed to get the UK and the countries of the EU back on friendly terms again.
Barty is Roger's mirror image of extreme Brexity sentiment. Roger naively wishes to believe anything positive about the EU and France, Barty naively wishes to believe anything negative about the EU and France. Neither understand subtle nuance.
There is no evidence that they have been seen in the same room at the same time - William Wilson and all that?
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
I wonder which would annoy Macron more, that they ignored him or if Boris beat him?
I think Macron can feasibly claim some of the credit for the recent EU stuff, as he is currently chair of the committee, and has done much in the role.
A poll of views of EU countries would be quite interesting, however.
I think Macron has realised - first among our Continental cousins - that Putin is quite mad.
A doctor I heard online commented that Putin's puffy, glassy appearance strongly reminded him of patients who are on steroids.
A side effect of these can be changes in personality.
What? Is he suddenly going to become all cuddly and start being nice to animals?
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
I wonder which would annoy Macron more, that they ignored him or if Boris beat him?
I think Macron can feasibly claim some of the credit for the recent EU stuff, as he is currently chair of the committee, and has done much in the role.
A poll of views of EU countries would be quite interesting, however.
I think Macron has realised - first among our Continental cousins - that Putin is quite mad.
A doctor I heard online commented that Putin's puffy, glassy appearance strongly reminded him of patients who are on steroids.
A side effect of these can be changes in personality.
What personality? If Putin is known for one thing it's an absence of personality.
I point people to three sentences in that Michigan University pre-print
"BA.2 is found to be able to alarmingly reinfect patients originally infected by Omicron BA.1"
"BA.2 is about 1.5 and 4.2 times as contagious as BA.1 and Delta, respectively. It is also 30% and 17-fold more capable than BA.1 and Delta, respectively, to escape current vaccines."
"We forecast that like Omicron BA.1, BA.2 will also seriously compromise most existing mAbs, except for sotrovimab developed by GlaxoSmithKline."
I submit - without any *freaking out* - that this could be a problem
Why?
Omicron wasn't a problem.
Delta wasn't a problem post vaccines.
Even if Omicron V2 reinfects everyone who already had Omicron V1 (which wasn't a problem first time around) so what if that happens?
The vaccines have worked and vaccine "escape" means for most people having a very mild infection then recovering, it does not mean being totally immuno naive. That is an antivaxx myth.
I'm obviously behind as I havent been done the first time yet.
The boffins say there is a lucky set of people who NEVER get Covid. You may be one of those. I believe they are studying them to find out why they have this natural immunity
I have had it at least once, probably twice, possibly three times
This is common. I know loads of people who've had it more than once
Its fine. They can combine Covid Lockdown with Protect and Survive. Only need to print one leaflet.
"If the air attack warning sounds / you test positive for BA2 you and your family must take cover"
Maybe the fallout radiation will kill off COVID? c.f. The Great Fire of London and the plague
PM Johnson at virtual PMQs from the British embassy in Canberra after Britain has been destroyed:
"The Leader of the Opposition can endlessly be Captain Hindsight and bemoan the nuclear destruction of his constituencies. But can I remind the house that he wanted to keep us locked down when the missiles were launched Mr Speaker and this government had a World Leading plan to deflect the warheads which was a great success. And whats more positive Covid rates have collapsed Mr Speaker, collapsed!"
The EU and the US in tandem are going to defeat Putin. This is according to the French who seem confident. I'm not sure where the UK fits in. The only mention I've heard so far is that they won't let battle scarred refugees in.
LOL 😂
The UK fits in by being a key supplier of arms already and for years before now, even before the EU got involved.
The fact that Ukraine hasn't been overrun already is in part to the credit of Boris, Theresa May and David Cameron who all deserve credit (and I'm no fan of one of them normally but will give credit where its due).
The fact the French don't want to mention the UK doesn't change things.
I wouldn't take Roger too seriously on this one, the French press has - in general - been full of praise for the UK over its Ukraine stance. Indeed, it's amazing how Putin has managed to get the UK and the countries of the EU back on friendly terms again.
Barty is Roger's mirror image of extreme Brexity sentiment. Roger naively wishes to believe anything positive about the EU and France, Barty naively wishes to believe anything negative about the EU and France. Neither understand subtle nuance.
There is no evidence that they have been seen in the same room at the same time - William Wilson and all that?
I keep meaning to read that.
I have had a long fascination with the potential for a novel about parallel mirror universes (though I am sure it has been done many times) ever since I sat next to a man on a night bus arguing with his own reflection when I was a student in London.
I came to the conclusion he was not conversing with a parallel universe when he stood up, belched and then said "pig".
Malmesbury's summary already shared this. I find it difficult to muster any interest.
I see someone is still using reporting day numbers.
{releases the flying, mutant lawyers} Fly my Pretties!!!!!, Fly!!!!!
If you're referring to me -
"Cases up (46%), deaths up (19.5%), admissions up (12.2%)"
- all those percentages are week-on-week
What is Going on? Is it still Omicron out there causing this? Is it just not national though hotspots where locally the vaccine is wearing off in old people 🤷♀️
It’s not to do with more variation but vaccine waning isn’t it?
It is nationally and across all age groups - see the R numbers for regions and ages.
I think I couple of newspapers suggested the South West? And said waning booster?
I point people to three sentences in that Michigan University pre-print
"BA.2 is found to be able to alarmingly reinfect patients originally infected by Omicron BA.1"
"BA.2 is about 1.5 and 4.2 times as contagious as BA.1 and Delta, respectively. It is also 30% and 17-fold more capable than BA.1 and Delta, respectively, to escape current vaccines."
"We forecast that like Omicron BA.1, BA.2 will also seriously compromise most existing mAbs, except for sotrovimab developed by GlaxoSmithKline."
I submit - without any *freaking out* - that this could be a problem
Why?
Omicron wasn't a problem.
Delta wasn't a problem post vaccines.
Even if Omicron V2 reinfects everyone who already had Omicron V1 (which wasn't a problem first time around) so what if that happens?
The vaccines have worked and vaccine "escape" means for most people having a very mild infection then recovering, it does not mean being totally immuno naive. That is an antivaxx myth.
Several reasons it might be a problem - emphasis on MIGHT!
We don't really know the virulence and IFR of BA2 yet.
One pointer is Denmark, where they probably maxed out on BA2 some time ago. Their cases spiked sharply and are now dropping fast, which is excellent news. However they are now reporting their highest daily death rates of the pandemic (60 today). Not so good
- Cases up. R is above 1 in all regions, and in all age groups. The younger groups are increasing faster. - In hospital is up a bit. - Admission are up - R above 1 - MV beds is flat(ish) for the moment - Deaths are continuing the downward trajectory - the jump in "reporting day" was partially filling in a "hole" in the day of numbers
Yesterday:
Today
That being said, there are some indications that the long fall in deaths is slowing.
Presumably some rise was expected after we decided to just shrug our shoulders about Covid and get on with our lives. Anecdotally, a couple of my friends (both double jabbed and boosted) have recently gone down with Covid. That said, do we have any numbers on what proportion are those who have been partially/not jabbed comprise this rise?
The market thinks current prices aren’t permanent/structural. I’m not so sure.
Well, they're not permanent in that there is a lot of gas out there that could be developed, and could be developed commercially at well below current prices.
However...
Taking Russia out of the gas supply market, and returning prices to pre-2021 levels, will take at least three, and probably as long as five years.
Putin might have found his scapegoat and face saving way out. The Russians have had to admit that they did send a large number of conscripts into Ukraine and say the people responsible will be punished.
These new anti-air missiles. Apparently so good we might be at risk of blasting the whole VVS out the sky, with risk of escalation.
Why hadn't we supplied them before now?
These are the Starstreak things?
I think the ceiling is something like 6000-7000m and the pace a rather rapid Mach 4, so what they might do is make the Russian Air Force fly high enough to enforce a change of tactics.
Suprisingly we seem to have quite a lot of these as well. They have been around for quite some time.
Malmesbury's summary already shared this. I find it difficult to muster any interest.
I see someone is still using reporting day numbers.
{releases the flying, mutant lawyers} Fly my Pretties!!!!!, Fly!!!!!
If you're referring to me -
"Cases up (46%), deaths up (19.5%), admissions up (12.2%)"
- all those percentages are week-on-week
What is Going on? Is it still Omicron out there causing this? Is it just not national though hotspots where locally the vaccine is wearing off in old people 🤷♀️
It’s not to do with more variation but vaccine waning isn’t it?
It is nationally and across all age groups - see the R numbers for regions and ages.
I think I couple of newspapers suggested the South West? And said waning booster?
cases are rising faster, now in younger groups. If you were talking about waning immunity, it would be the oldest first....
The regions and nations are closely bunched together
Comments
But it is also not the most important thing we can do for Ukraine right now. People are successfully leaving the Ukraine, and are finding temporary shelter in Germany, Poland, etc. We can - and should - do more. But Ukrainians are not dying because of Ms Patel's inaction.
*best not to look too closely at the details of how it did this, mind.
So thanks for your post! And please post more when the spirit moves you.
A virus which is causing serious morbidity and mortality before transmission may not prevent transmission from those originally infected but it does cause behavioural changes in others.
A variant that doesn't cause as serious morbidity and mortality causes fewer behavioural changes in others.
So evolutionary pressures do exist, even there.
The UK is now definitely in an upswing
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
The UK fits in by being a key supplier of arms already and for years before now, even before the EU got involved.
The fact that Ukraine hasn't been overrun already is in part to the credit of Boris, Theresa May and David Cameron who all deserve credit (and I'm no fan of one of them normally but will give credit where its due).
The fact the French don't want to mention the UK doesn't change things.
After all, confession IS good for the soul . . . a theological wrinkle PB's leading theologian has overlooked?
I was young and naive then but even so I could sense something wrong and as my leftist views were getting firmed up, when Castro arrived and took over I thought: "Good"!
It did occur to me, knowing how Boris’s mind works, that he might be processing some bad news on Covid, that wasn’t yet public.
He tends to vocalise his fears in a rather unprompted, revealing way, especially when under scrutiny.
I think he’s worried about where we’re headed re: Covid.
The pandemic is OVER. Its been over for over a year now. Its endemic now, there will be swings and roundabout but needs to be filed under: who gives a fuck?
https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1501571907296104456
Official White House press release:
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1501583668543897601
*Russian martial art
There is a cause for concern. That is all. It is dwarfed by the Ukraine crisis but unfortunately it does exist, alongside
{releases the flying, mutant lawyers} Fly my Pretties!!!!!, Fly!!!!!
Just because you dislike someone, doesn't mean you shouldn't give them credit where its due. I've done so in this thread, the fact you're unable to do so just shows you to be petty rather than intelligent.
The Germans sent them some party hats and mouldy soviet tech from 1980s that they found in an East Germany warehouse.
"Cases up (46%), deaths up (19.5%), admissions up (12.2%)"
- all those percentages are week-on-week
A poll of views of EU countries would be quite interesting, however.
It’s not to do with more variation but vaccine waning isn’t it?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHylQRVN2Qs
I've been praising the EU and its constituent nations for their u-turn in recent weeks and for standing firm with the UK and USA in allying with Ukraine and against Russia. I haven't got a bad word to say about any EU nation in this for how they're behaving right now, I have nothing but praise for the entire Western world in standing up for Ukraine at the moment.
You don't understand any nuance, let alone subtle. Thus you speak with absurd absolutes where I become this fictional parody you've invented, or where the PM can do absolutely nothing right because he's a clown or . . . whatever floats your boat. People are complicated and not as simplistic as you like to pretend.
Why hadn't we supplied them before now?
The infectivity of BA2 is insane. Something like twenty times - I have read (not checked) - as infectious as Covid Classic, the original. And some anecdata points to it being more virulent than BA1. And it reinfects
Some reading:
"The Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has rapidly replaced the Delta variant as a dominating SARS-CoV-2 variant because of natural selection, which favors the variant with higher infectivity and stronger vaccine breakthrough ability. Omicron has three lineages or subvariants, BA.1 (B.1.1.529.1), BA.2 (B.1.1.529.2), and BA.3 (B.1.1.529.3).
Among them, BA.1 is the currently prevailing subvariant. BA.2 shares 32 mutations with BA.1 but has 28 distinct ones. BA.3 shares most of its mutations with BA.1 and BA.2 except for one. BA.2 is found to be able to alarmingly reinfect patients originally infected by Omicron BA.1. An important question is whether BA.2 or BA.3 will become a new dominating “variant of concern”. Currently, no experimental data has been reported about BA.2 and BA.3.
We construct a novel algebraic topology-based deep learning model trained with tens of thousands of mutational and deep mutational data to systematically evaluate BA.2’s and BA.3’s infectivity, vaccine breakthrough capability, and antibody resistance. Our comparative analysis of all main variants namely, Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Lambda, Mu, BA.1, BA.2, and BA.3, unveils that BA.2 is about 1.5 and 4.2 times as contagious as BA.1 and Delta, respectively. It is also 30% and 17-fold more capable than BA.1 and Delta, respectively, to escape current vaccines.
Therefore, we project that Omicron BA.2 is on its path to becoming the next dominating variant. We forecast that like Omicron BA.1, BA.2 will also seriously compromise most existing mAbs, except for sotrovimab developed by GlaxoSmithKline."
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8887081/
*So handy, because flares and the like don’t matter.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-confirms-plan-announce-10018461
Yesterday, while Pres Zelensky was addressing the House of Commons, she formally offered an apology to witches persecuted in the 16th Century.
Words fail.
Prediction. “3.4/10 - is this all rather calm for a party?”
"If the air attack warning sounds / you test positive for BA2 you and your family must take cover"
https://twitter.com/irnbrudreaming/status/1501474949927690245
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5253318
The market thinks current prices aren’t permanent/structural. I’m not so sure.
- Cases up. R is above 1 in all regions, and in all age groups. The younger groups are increasing faster.
- In hospital is up a bit.
- Admission are up - R above 1
- MV beds is flat(ish) for the moment
- Deaths are continuing the downward trajectory - the jump in "reporting day" was partially filling in a "hole" in the day of numbers
Yesterday:
Today
That being said, there are some indications that the long fall in deaths is slowing.
"BA.2 is found to be able to alarmingly reinfect patients originally infected by Omicron BA.1"
"BA.2 is about 1.5 and 4.2 times as contagious as BA.1 and Delta, respectively. It is also 30% and 17-fold more capable than BA.1 and Delta, respectively, to escape current vaccines."
"We forecast that like Omicron BA.1, BA.2 will also seriously compromise most existing mAbs, except for sotrovimab developed by GlaxoSmithKline."
I submit - without any *freaking out* - that this could be a problem
A side effect of these can be changes in personality.
Omicron wasn't a problem.
Delta wasn't a problem post vaccines.
Even if Omicron V2 reinfects everyone who already had Omicron V1 (which wasn't a problem first time around) so what if that happens?
The vaccines have worked and vaccine "escape" means for most people having a very mild infection then recovering, it does not mean being totally immuno naive. That is an antivaxx myth.
I have had it at least once, probably twice, possibly three times
This is common. I know loads of people who've had it more than once
"The Leader of the Opposition can endlessly be Captain Hindsight and bemoan the nuclear destruction of his constituencies. But can I remind the house that he wanted to keep us locked down when the missiles were launched Mr Speaker and this government had a World Leading plan to deflect the warheads which was a great success. And whats more positive Covid rates have collapsed Mr Speaker, collapsed!"
I'm not sure our strategy of confronting and defeating Putin, but doing so in a way that doesn't unduly upset Putin, is coherent or sustainable.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1501470608227545089?cxt=HHwWgsC9wYTkpdYpAAAA
I have had a long fascination with the potential for a novel about parallel mirror universes (though I am sure it has been done many times) ever since I sat next to a man on a night bus arguing with his own reflection when I was a student in London.
I came to the conclusion he was not conversing with a parallel universe when he stood up, belched and then said "pig".
We don't really know the virulence and IFR of BA2 yet.
One pointer is Denmark, where they probably maxed out on BA2 some time ago. Their cases spiked sharply and are now dropping fast, which is excellent news. However they are now reporting their highest daily death rates of the pandemic (60 today). Not so good
However...
Taking Russia out of the gas supply market, and returning prices to pre-2021 levels, will take at least three, and probably as long as five years.
I think the ceiling is something like 6000-7000m and the pace a rather rapid Mach 4, so what they might do is make the Russian Air Force fly high enough to enforce a change of tactics.
Suprisingly we seem to have quite a lot of these as well. They have been around for quite some time.
I can't tell how easy they are to use.
The regions and nations are closely bunched together