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A poll lead for the Tories in March? – politicalbetting.com
A poll lead for the Tories in March? – politicalbetting.com
Tonight in London at the headquarters of the Smarkets betting exchange there will be the PB 18th birthday party – the first gathering for several years. It is being hosted by Smarkets as part of a big effort by the firm to establish itself as a leading political bookmaker alongside all its other activities.
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The house all stand and applaud the attendance of Ukraine’s Ambassador
Arsenal on Chelsea action.
Specific people being raised for sanctioning.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10568685/Russias-foreign-minister-warns-world-war-NUCLEAR-destructive.html
This is a bit concerning, because these movements on such high-stakes rhetoric suggest to me there could be a power struggle going on.
@KevinASchofield
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2h
EXCL: Former shadow chancellor John McDonnell is set to lose the Labour whip if he goes ahead with a planned appearance at a Stop The War rally in London tonight.
Гаага means The Hague
Them putting their money into our jurisdiction is the way we can then access those funds in order to sanction them. If they weren't in our jurisdiction, then our sanctions would be having considerably less impact than they really are.
The FT had a good explainer recently as to why even liquid Russian assets as well as hard assets are getting caught up now in sanctions: https://mobile.twitter.com/FT/status/1498072586399399937
Are we expecting many to attend?
Mind you I wouldn't be adding names without a valid reason in case I screwed up.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/how-russian-sanctions-work/622940/
"Central-bank sanctions are a weapon so devastating, in fact, that the only question is whether they might do more damage than Western governments might wish. They could potentially bankrupt the entire Russian banking system and push the ruble into worthlessness."
1. Russia will probably win- in the sense that they will be successful in invading Ukraine. They've advanced through a large part of Ukraine in a week. In any normal circumstances (where the opposing side does not control the narrative about the war) it would look like a cakewalk. The danger is that by focusing on well publicised errors we convince ourselves that Russia aren't going to win. They are, they always were. We shouldn't get too disappointed if they eventually do.
2. The problem will come for Russia when they do win. What then? We established yesterday that support for Pro Russian parties was about 16% in the most recent parliamentary election (2019). By hiving off Crimea and the Donbass, Putin has reduced the part of Ukraine favourable to him to a small minority, and the invasion including the attacks on civilians is hardly going to increase this number. How could that ever be the basis of a legitimate government in Ukraine?
I would say that the military losses, financial sanctions and global isolation are just the very beginning of Putins problems.
Will there come a point at which the west, in the form of USA, says to Russia: we will place that same threat on the table unless you desist from X within Y days; or alternatively do so if you do Z now or ever.
On the latter, that it took 4 attempts for Patel to even open an offer to British resident Ukranians to allow them to have their siblings take refuge with them is a shameful misread of the public mood.
I agree fully that we should be doing more regarding those fleeing war.
Signalling your support for allies who are literally fighting for their freedom matters.
Morale matters.
Symbolism matters.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498996144663412740?s=20&t=-MfFCZAfrVBbcTk8VUzHKg
The Tory party are for reasons I don't grasp breaching the the converted while scaring (more accurately horrifying) potential voters away without realising
One for you...
https://www.ft.com/content/bfea0069-4143-4e4b-accb-9712ce95a282
Credit Suisse asks investors to destroy documents linked to oligarch and tycoon yacht loans
Swiss bank issues legal request to stem information leaks after FT story on lending unit
One man’s virtue signalling b*ll*cks, is another country’s morale-boosting show of support.
Dogs are renowned for their loyalty.
Your mate Trump who called this genius is wrong too.
These gestures, backed up by hard munitions like NLAWs and hard sanctions on finance etc, absolutely are not empty.
olexander scherba🇺🇦
@olex_scherba
Reports of UA going in counterattack. The RU-occupied Horlivka is liberated.
#UkraineRussiaWar #ukrainekicksass
12:21 PM · Mar 2, 2022·Twitter for iPhone
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1498996954134720526
These gestures are to assuage your conscience on that matter. We all know that we are standing around watching a defenceless person getting beaten to a pulp by a bunch of bullies.
IF wearing the Ukrainian flag makes you feel better about that, good for you.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct1jpy
Thanks for the articles today, and have a good knees-up without kneejerks this evening.
We are not standing around and Ukraine is not defenceless. Ukraine has had seven years of the UK supplying munitions and offering training and that is coming to light now in just how powerful supposedly-defenceless Ukraine actually is.
If you think we're doing nothing, or Ukraine has no defenders, I think you need to pay more attention to what is going on and have a look at the impact NLAWs and more are having.
If as looks likely if not probable the aim is to enter Kiev and install a puppet government then they are back to Afghan. A huge military presence to subdue a revolting population.
The West might be tempted at that point to sit back and let that situation take its toll. It cannot use NATO-member Poland for any sponsoring of insurgency as that would bring Poland into play and in his current apparent mood Putin might have certain views about that.
I for one absolutely support @Sandpit, his family and all the Ukraine people, and will wear the Ukraine badge with pride until Putin falls
I realise some of this is just Johnson's technique of concealing lies through vacuous boosterism, but what is wrong with e.g. "we believe we are doing the right thing by not sanctioning these individuals" rather than "we have a world-leading response"?
Edit: That is, in the separatist-controlled Donetsk.
Its easy to claim "we're leading the way" and yet the specific examples and measures mentioned are sat there swept aside and ignored. We don't need an alliance to freeze monies and assets sat in the UK. So why don't we?
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russian-convoy-blitzed-by-ukrainian-troops-armed-with-brit-anti-tank-weapons/
"empty gestures"
Rather, for the self congratulatory feebleness of our response.
So sorry, Sandpit.
But they may now be in the minority. The reason why the government had to keep backtracking was because they confidently thought people wanted to keep asylum seekers out. But a stack of Tory MPs disagreed based on feedback from constituents and finally we are being decent.
So there is hope! In all horror situations you can find hope, and positive changes. This may be one of ours. And hopefully not treating the EUSSR as the evil empire will be another.
Edit: and whatever was responsible for that bottom photo it wasn't NLAWs.
I checked the Sentinel images and the latest without cloud cover was from 1a on the 28th Feb
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=14&lat=50.85334&lng=30.01791&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https://services.sentinel-hub.com/ogc/wms/f2068f4f-3c75-42cf-84a1-42948340a846&datasetId=S1_AWS_IW_VVVH&fromTime=2022-02-28T00:00:00.000Z&toTime=2022-02-28T23:59:59.999Z&layerId=8_RGB-RATIO
Looks about 10km long to me, stuck near Fenevychi. There may be other parts to it.
Unfortunately it was cloudy yesterday.
Ukraine are not fighting in vain. The fact that they decided to fight rather than just let Putin waltz in, has turned Putin's likely victory in to a catastrophic, existential long term defeat. What started as an attempt to bully and boss around a neighbour, with the aim of installing a more compliant government, now looks like a descent in to an Iraq/Afghanistan style nightmare that will be the ruin of Russia.
I am cautioning against misreading the 'end' of the war in Ukraine, when the Russian flags are raised in Kiev. It isn't the end of anything, and mustn't be. It will - I hope - be the end of the beginning of the end of Putins regime in Russia.
https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1499002750058876931
On immigration the Cons know the welcoming and generous voter can flip to ‘where are they flocking from’ v. quickly.
Why not join in that debate instead of accusing everyone involved in it of being virtue-signallers?
I think you're actually disappointed at how strongly the West has responded because it gives the lie to your claim that concern about the environment or liberal freedoms had made us weak and effete.
*) Some of the weaponry used in the attack might have been NLAWs. Just not solely. We cannot know.
*) In a war that will be chewing weapons up faster than soldiers, provision of the the NLAWs might have freed up the weapons that did this.
Payrolled employments in the UK by region, industry and nationality, from July 2014 to June 2021
This experimental statistics publication provides counts of payrolled employments in the UK from July 2014 to June 2021, with analysis by geographical region, industrial sector and nationality.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/changes-in-payrolled-employments-held-by-non-uk-nationals-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic-and-eu-exit-periods
Changes in payrolled employments held by non-UK nationals during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and EU Exit periods
Using new Experimental Statistics from HMRC Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information (RTI) data linked to Migrant Worker Scan (MWS) to explore changes in payrolled employments in the labour market by nationality, region and industry from July 2014 to June 2021.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/changes-in-payrolled-employments-held-by-non-uk-nationals-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic-and-eu-exit-periods
I expect Labour will table amendments to make the measures much more aggressive, so it's going to cause some difficulty for the government if they witter on about "world-beating" while whipping against the amendments, unless some genuine reasons can be brought forward.
Expectations of the government's ability to legislate and act at speed have been totally changed by Covid legislation which means the optics of any delay are not great.
Tossers.
I am no expert but ALOW destroys tanks and other armed vehicles, those or Russian Armand vehicles and the Ukrainians have NLAWs supplied by UK.
Can you tell by the type of damage?
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1499004831473844229
Wearing a Ukranian flag sure as hell makes me feel better, if only as a show of support for my Ukranian wife, her family and friends - some of whom are sleeping in the metro in Kiev at the moment.
Shows of support from overseas matter a lot to the Ukranians at the moment, it’s good for them to see that the whole world is standing behind them and wanting them to succeed.
Thankfully it’s not just words though, the West and NATO have responded admirably, sending plenty of weapons and training to the Ukranians over the past eight years, and happy to keep the military supply lines open now, when they are most needed.
Edit: I see your apology upthread. Accepted. For some of us, this war is very personal indeed.
President Biden has ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine and imposing a no fly zone and we will not do anything beyond what the US is doing. Namely economic sanctions.
In terms of confronting Russia and China global realpolitik is that we follow the US lead within NATO, even more so now we have left the EU
I think your country is incredibly brave and noble, but I think all this 'standing with Ukraine' from our leaders when we are standing by watching your cities get turned to rubble, is empty gestures to make them feel better about their choices.
I hope Boris and Starmer find a solution
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/opinion/ukraine-russia-putin.html
For whatever reason the UK didn't give Ukraine Javelin which has a much bigger warhead and longer range. They got a round of applause instead. NHS staff can sympathise.
Because Russia seem to be angling for a fight (which makes little sense given how badly the invasion has gone) the West is having to be very careful when it comes to military matters and spending a lot of time making sure that no theoretical white line is breached that Russia could use as an excuse to escalate things further.
And at the moment we aren't issuing free visas to Ukrainians we are still charging them £100 / £1000s in visa processing fees.
Labour leader Keir Starmer questions effectiveness of Boris Johnson's sanctions package, but the U.K. PM insists they're already having an impact on Russian regime http://bloom.bg/3tmlriC
https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1498998462326751236
'Leading the way..'
Unfortunately this will only push the Russians towards the Grozny solution.
We have to try and make sure every Russian knows what its government is doing. But how? My guess, and this is just a guess, is that someone asked the home office what the quickest way of getting people official temporary visas was, and they thought, I know, fruit picking works, lets do that, even if they aren't actually fruit picking.
Instead of throwing away the bureaucracy as they should, they suggest a workaround.
Same goes for charging people silly money. That's what the process says, and we can't change the process...
I imagine that part of all this is that Ukraine feels insecure as a nation - particularly as Russia is trying to rubbish it (literally) and is saying that it should not exist.
Personally I don't feel particularly comfortable with flag waving - I made my own decision several days ago, I would give significant amounts of money to the war effort and I've stuck with that. I don't object to it though and think it is great.
The challenge however is that there are dark days coming, there is probably not going to be a happy ending any time soon, and we need to be in this for the long term.