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The outcast in Anchorage: A senate storm brews in Alaska – politicalbetting.com

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  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Heathener said:



    Russia's military might was always overrated.

    Russia is never as strong as it seems or as weak as it seems. Metternich or maybe Brian out of Family Guy.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,296
    Andy_JS said:

    Did we discuss this yesterday evening?

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1497270460396015621

    "Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE

    @KwasiKwarteng summoned BP chief Bernard Looney this afternoon to explain why it owns a 20% stake in Rosneft, which provides fuel to Russia army
    - Kwarteng also "uneasy" about the fact that Looney sits alongside Putin on the Russian Geographical Society board"

    Crikey, that’s pretty pathetic from Kwarteng. This is all public knowledge.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,912
    ydoethur said:

    A few things I don't understand. Why haven't the Russians apparently established air superiority? Why are they sending in conscripts who should be held in reserve to occupy territory later? And why does Russia need to ask Kazakhstan for military assistance?

    The last one is truly bizarre. Only a few weeks after the pro-Russian government barely survived a popular revolution, why on earth would you be weakening its military by sending its troops to fight on a different continent?!
    Morning all.

    If thousands are coming back in body bags, perhaps Russia would prefer that they aren't Russians.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,462
    Taz said:

    BA cancels all short haul flights

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60533275

    Tit for tat cyber attack after we blocked Aeroflot?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,934
    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    If thousands are coming back in body bags, perhaps Russia would prefer that they aren't Russians.

    Rumours that the Russians have mobile crematoriums to avoid the body bags for their soldiers
  • Andy_JS said:

    "‘Only isolated pockets’ of Russian troops in Kyiv - UK armed forces minister

    UK armed forces minister, James Heappey said on Saturday that there are only “isolated pockets” of Russian troops in Kyiv - which is a testament to the resistance shown by Ukrainian forces. “The main armoured columns approaching Kyiv are still some way off. That is a testament to the incredible resistance the Ukrainian armoured forces have put up over the last 48 hours or so,” he told Sky News. “Clearly the Russian plan is to take Kyiv but the reality is that the Ukrainians are thwarting them thus far. “It looks like the Russian plan is nowhere near running to schedule. “I think that will be a great cause of concern for President Putin and rather points to the fact that there was a lot of hubris in the Russian plan and that he may be awfully advised.”

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-putin-war-kyiv-invasion-latest-b2022971.html

    I get occasional, but fleeting, moments of bright optimism that we are in the final days of Putin and either his people are going to bring him down or his generals are.

    News that the banking system may be being brought to its knees, possibly by hackers is cheering.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,284
    edited February 2022

    Reports 27 countries are actively providing weapons to Ukraine

    Time for us to unite, stop sniping, and be proud of the response currently on its way from nations across the world

    I'm sorry BigG. We in the West have done next to nothing. There is good reason why we have done next to nothing we don't want Putin to escalate this fiasco to involve the EU and the UK.

    Clinton's biggest regret was he did nothing about the genocide in Rwanda. We are watching, not genocide, but the destruction of a nation. The upshot either way is thousands of innocents are slaughtered whilst we watch on.

    Our declarations "but Ukraine is not in NATO" are sops to ourselves.They are a sovereign nation invaded by an aggressor and we (the West) have sanctioned 70% of Russian banks. Huh, 70%?

    Now I don't want British troops involved, I don't want my children conscripted for a world war, but neither can I sit back with satisfaction and claim leaders representing me have done all they can on my behalf, they haven't. In some cases, their vested interests trump my horror.

    I don't know how to counter Putin, that is not my job. But neither, it seems, do those whose job it is to deal with Putin.

    I am not suggesting a party political or Remainer/ Leave bias here. Whoever they represent, Western leaders have been guilty of dereliction of duty for at least eight years and that includes Starmer and your beloved "Boris".
    When I was calling for us to act against Russia in 2014, 2016 (I think), 2018, etc, etc, where was your voice? Were you in the "Russia's ambitions are detrimental to the world; we need to act hard" camp or the "You're a warmonger risking WWIII" camp?

    Because actions then would have been a damned sight easier than they are now. And we still face a threat of WWIII.
    Yes they would, which is why I have cited eight years of inaction and dereliction of duty by Western leaders.

    And, don't you blame me. I was outraged that we in the West did nothing about a downed airliner. We begged for permission to recover our bodies. That single act was brushed under the carpet. That represents the West sitting on its hands while Putin toyed with us.

    I was with Elwood weeks ago when he demanded NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine. That is recorded here.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,296

    Taz said:

    BA cancels all short haul flights

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60533275

    Tit for tat cyber attack after we blocked Aeroflot?
    That was what I thought, Although it doesn’t say. Cyber attacks work both ways and it is something the Russians seem to be good at.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,270
    edited February 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    If thousands are coming back in body bags, perhaps Russia would prefer that they aren't Russians.

    Rumours that the Russians have mobile crematoriums to avoid the body bags for their soldiers
    Won’t the families get suspicious . Bear in mind also that being cremated is controversial in Orthodox religions.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    AV would maybe have seen Kasich win the Presidency in 2016 or Buttigieg in 2020.

    If multiple candidates from each party can enter the Presidential election rather than merely the party nominee as Alaska has done for the Senate it would be a big change. Also benefiting moderates from both parties as they would not need to appeal so hard to the party’s primary voters to get the nomination but could go straight to the general election and appeal to all voters
  • Andy_JS said:

    Did we discuss this yesterday evening?

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1497270460396015621

    "Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE

    @KwasiKwarteng summoned BP chief Bernard Looney this afternoon to explain why it owns a 20% stake in Rosneft, which provides fuel to Russia army
    - Kwarteng also "uneasy" about the fact that Looney sits alongside Putin on the Russian Geographical Society board"

    Makes it sound like Kwarteng was unaware of this fact until this week. High hypocrisy.
  • F1: Norris down to 15 (having been 26) for the title. Unlikely, but interesting possibility.

    Had a free bet, put it on him to win, each way, Bahrain at 17.
  • Heathener said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Rumors that hackers have taken down Russia biggest bank site Sberbank. Karma is a bitch..
    https://twitter.com/TommyLundn/status/1497413113112666113

    Russians being unable to take money out of their bank accounts would cause national panic....

    Way to go, GCHQ!
    Probably Anonymous. They declared cyber war on Putin's Russia.

    https://www.timesnownews.com/world/anonymous-declares-cyber-war-on-russia-attacks-govt-websites-all-about-the-mysterious-hacker-collective-article-89843798
    Probably the American NSA who have form.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,252
    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    A few things I don't understand. Why haven't the Russians apparently established air superiority? Why are they sending in conscripts who should be held in reserve to occupy territory later? And why does Russia need to ask Kazakhstan for military assistance?

    The last one is truly bizarre. Only a few weeks after the pro-Russian government barely survived a popular revolution, why on earth would you be weakening its military by sending its troops to fight on a different continent?!
    Morning all.

    If thousands are coming back in body bags, perhaps Russia would prefer that they aren't Russians.
    The Napoleon solution.

    As against that, the governments in Nur Sultan and Minsk are precarious at best. Lukashenko barely survived the fallout from his attempt to rig that last election, and he needed Russian help to do it. Tokayev meanwhile has been busily pissing off reformers, by not reforming, Nazarbayev and his allies, by having them arrested, nationalists, by being too close to the Russians, and Russophiles, by being a weak and incompetent fool. Again, without Russian support he would have been out in the last burst of rioting.

    Neither would survive their soldiers coming back in body bags (or urns) for a war fought in another country by a nutcase trying to prove his penis is slightly larger than his brain cell.

    And that would be a far more serious geopolitical reverse for Putin than losing the Donbas, or even Crimea. It would leave him pretty well surrounded by states hostile to him because of the way he's treated them.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,934
    Worth remembering Ukraine's Maidan revolution was sparked by its people's desire for closer trade links with the EU.

    'The Russia-Ukraine crisis has shown Boris Johnson that the EU is not the enemy, Putin is.'


    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/russia-ukraine-war-how-many-brexit-promises-failed-materialise-1484648?ito=twitter_share_article-top
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,252
    HYUFD said:

    AV would maybe have seen Kasich win the Presidency in 2016 or Buttigieg in 2020.

    If multiple candidates from each party can enter the Presidential election rather than merely the party nominee as Alaska has done for the Senate it would be a big change. Also benefiting moderates from both parties as they would not need to appeal so hard to the party’s primary voters to get the nomination but could go straight to the general election and appeal to all voters

    You're making this system sound very attractive.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,284

    Reports 27 countries are actively providing weapons to Ukraine

    Time for us to unite, stop sniping, and be proud of the response currently on its way from nations across the world

    I'm sorry BigG. We in the West have done next to nothing. There is good reason why we have done next to nothing we don't want Putin to escalate this fiasco to involve the EU and the UK.

    Clinton's biggest regret was he did nothing about the genocide in Rwanda. We are watching, not genocide, but the destruction of a nation. The upshot either way is thousands of innocents are slaughtered whilst we watch on.

    Our declarations "but Ukraine is not in NATO" are sops to ourselves.They are a sovereign nation invaded by an aggressor and we (the West) have sanctioned 70% of their banks. Huh, 70%?

    Now I don't want British troops involved, I don't want my children conscripted for a world war, but neither can I sit back with satisfaction and claim leaders representing me have done all they can on my behalf, they haven't. In some cases, their vested interests trump my horror.

    I don't know how to counter Putin, that is not my job. But neither, it seems, do those whose job it is to deal with Putin.

    I am not suggesting a party political or Remainer/ Leave bias here. Whoever they represent, Western leaders have been guilty of dereliction of duty for at least eight years and that includes Starmer and your beloved "Boris".
    Beloved Boris - I cannot understand why a conservative party leadership election taking upto 8 weeks at this time of war could be justified or indeed accepted by the voters

    The time will come to replace Boris but it will not happen yet
    ...because Johnson is not up to the job? A World Statesman at the very least, combs his or her hair.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Did we discuss this yesterday evening?

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1497270460396015621

    "Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE

    @KwasiKwarteng summoned BP chief Bernard Looney this afternoon to explain why it owns a 20% stake in Rosneft, which provides fuel to Russia army
    - Kwarteng also "uneasy" about the fact that Looney sits alongside Putin on the Russian Geographical Society board"

    Kwasi virtue signalling if he has only just raised an eyebrow at this long-established arrangement.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    Scott_xP said:

    Yesterday Dom was denying Russia had any influence over Brexit.

    today...

    Dominic Cummings: the Tory Party has been “financed by Putin’s mates for decades” and Russia has been able to sway the British electorate.
    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/tories-financed-by-putins-mates-for-decades-and-russia-did-influence-uk-votes-dominic-cummings-claims/ar-AAUfK8S?ocid=st

    Corbyn and Salmond and Farage were far more supported by Putin than any Tory leader was. Putin also supported Brexit in 2016 which Cummings backed over Cameron
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,284

    malcolmg said:

    On topic, yay, an AV thread.

    with pineapple?
    I'm currently drinking a glass of pineapple juice.
    ...with a slice of Margarita pizza?
  • Taz said:

    BA cancels all short haul flights

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60533275

    Tit for tat cyber attack after we blocked Aeroflot?
    No, just crap BA IT.
  • Taz said:

    BA cancels all short haul flights

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60533275

    Tit for tat cyber attack after we blocked Aeroflot?
    Possibly but let's have some more mindless cheering for GCHQ and the NCSC.
  • Service has been suspended on Kyiv’s subway system, and the stations will now serve as around-the-clock bomb shelters, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on his Twitter account.

    NY Times blog
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,284

    Andy_JS said:

    Did we discuss this yesterday evening?

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1497270460396015621

    "Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE

    @KwasiKwarteng summoned BP chief Bernard Looney this afternoon to explain why it owns a 20% stake in Rosneft, which provides fuel to Russia army
    - Kwarteng also "uneasy" about the fact that Looney sits alongside Putin on the Russian Geographical Society board"

    What’s there to say beyond observing it’s performative, grandstanding, meaningless bollocks? The government knew all this last week, last month, last year but chose to do absolutely nothing.

    Very succinctly put.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,252

    Service has been suspended on Kyiv’s subway system, and the stations will now serve as around-the-clock bomb shelters, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on his Twitter account.

    NY Times blog

    To be fair, I am astonished they didn't do that 36 hours ago.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,270
    Scott_xP said:

    Worth remembering Ukraine's Maidan revolution was sparked by its people's desire for closer trade links with the EU.

    'The Russia-Ukraine crisis has shown Boris Johnson that the EU is not the enemy, Putin is.'


    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/russia-ukraine-war-how-many-brexit-promises-failed-materialise-1484648?ito=twitter_share_article-top

    What would have been interesting is what no 10 would have said if Ukraine had applied for EU membership .

    Trashing that wouldn’t have been a good look especially as it would have meant he was on the same side as Putin .

  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,912

    Russia is ending its cooperation on space launches and withdrawing all personnel and launch crews from French Guiana.

    https://twitter.com/roscosmos/status/1497456827881172994

    Hmmm. Impact on Oneweb of all this?

    They use launch sites in Russia.
  • If you run a government that is entirely built on lies like Putin, don't be surprised when it turns out your generals were lying to you when they said they could overrun Kyiv in 48 hours.

  • eekeek Posts: 28,230

    malcolmg said:

    On topic, yay, an AV thread.

    with pineapple?
    I'm currently drinking a glass of pineapple juice.
    Ham and cheese pizza 🍕 as a chaser?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,401

    Reports 27 countries are actively providing weapons to Ukraine

    Time for us to unite, stop sniping, and be proud of the response currently on its way from nations across the world

    I'm sorry BigG. We in the West have done next to nothing. There is good reason why we have done next to nothing we don't want Putin to escalate this fiasco to involve the EU and the UK.

    Clinton's biggest regret was he did nothing about the genocide in Rwanda. We are watching, not genocide, but the destruction of a nation. The upshot either way is thousands of innocents are slaughtered whilst we watch on.

    Our declarations "but Ukraine is not in NATO" are sops to ourselves.They are a sovereign nation invaded by an aggressor and we (the West) have sanctioned 70% of Russian banks. Huh, 70%?

    Now I don't want British troops involved, I don't want my children conscripted for a world war, but neither can I sit back with satisfaction and claim leaders representing me have done all they can on my behalf, they haven't. In some cases, their vested interests trump my horror.

    I don't know how to counter Putin, that is not my job. But neither, it seems, do those whose job it is to deal with Putin.

    I am not suggesting a party political or Remainer/ Leave bias here. Whoever they represent, Western leaders have been guilty of dereliction of duty for at least eight years and that includes Starmer and your beloved "Boris".
    When I was calling for us to act against Russia in 2014, 2016 (I think), 2018, etc, etc, where was your voice? Were you in the "Russia's ambitions are detrimental to the world; we need to act hard" camp or the "You're a warmonger risking WWIII" camp?

    Because actions then would have been a damned sight easier than they are now. And we still face a threat of WWIII.
    Yes they would, which is why I have cited eight years of inaction and dereliction of duty by Western leaders.

    And, don't you blame me. I was outraged that we in the West did nothing about a downed airliner. We begged for permission to recover our bodies. That single act was brushed under the carpet. That represents the West sitting on its hands while Putin toyed with us.

    I was with Elwood weeks ago when he demanded NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine. That is recorded here.
    I'm talking about calling for action over the last eight years. This could have been prevented. It should have been prevented. It was predicted.

    And yes, a Conservative / coalition government has been in place for that time. But remember Miliband's hideous backturn over the Syria vote? Remember Corbyn, Labour's leader, who pretended to be rather (ahem) anti-war?

    Putin has gambled that the west's weaknesses would prevent us from stopping his territorial ambitions. The UK's negligence played into it - but the blame lies all over the west. It was too hard to do, so it wasn't done.

    (I'd actually argue May did very well over Salisbury, although it could have been used as a catalyst for firmer actions.)
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited February 2022
    Chelsea could go bust

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10553871/Chelsea-BUST-owner-Roman-Abramovich-hit-sanctions.html

    I've been calling for a clean up of dirty Russian money for years.

    The problem here is that the Premier League is awash with dirty money and so is London. We host the Arms Fair every two years which directly contributes to dirty regimes.

    And whilst I definitely want to ban Abramovich and his fellow Putin-loving Russian mafia, what about Saudi Arabia? What about Qatar?

    I love Qatar Airways but I'm under no illusion about the country behind it.

    Corruption runs deep and money talks. That's why the stock markets soared yesterday. They know our sanctions are feeble.

  • Further to that video I posted earlier of a captured Russian soldier phoning his parents:
    Thread:
    I have seen a lot of videos come out today of captured Russian troops

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497486868149153794

    If this is “fake news” (I don’t think it is) the Ukrainians are many orders of magnitude better at it than the Russians.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    AV would maybe have seen Kasich win the Presidency in 2016 or Buttigieg in 2020.

    If multiple candidates from each party can enter the Presidential election rather than merely the party nominee as Alaska has done for the Senate it would be a big change. Also benefiting moderates from both parties as they would not need to appeal so hard to the party’s primary voters to get the nomination but could go straight to the general election and appeal to all voters

    You're making this system sound very attractive.
    I did vote for AV in 2011 in the referendum on it here
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,401
    MattW said:

    Russia is ending its cooperation on space launches and withdrawing all personnel and launch crews from French Guiana.

    https://twitter.com/roscosmos/status/1497456827881172994

    Hmmm. Impact on Oneweb of all this?

    They use launch sites in Russia.
    And Russian rockets.

    They're in big trouble, sadly.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,912
    Scott_xP said:

    Will he go?
    You're right. He won't. Because the Conservative ecosystem won't stand up to Big Dog. And I recognise that you're no longer a member, but people looking for excuses to delay the necessary is part of the problem.

    Ukraine MP : Pick up a Kalashnikov

    Tory MP : Won't even pick up a pen
    Isn't that a quote from yourself from a few days ago?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,575
    dixiedean said:

    If Google Maps is anything to go by, the Russians have completely penetrated downtown Kyiv.

    Google Maps shows troop positions now?
    It shows current traffic congestion in Kyiv.

    Most roads fairly clear but congestion on the bridge.


  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Reports 27 countries are actively providing weapons to Ukraine

    Time for us to unite, stop sniping, and be proud of the response currently on its way from nations across the world

    I'm sorry BigG. We in the West have done next to nothing. There is good reason why we have done next to nothing we don't want Putin to escalate this fiasco to involve the EU and the UK.

    Clinton's biggest regret was he did nothing about the genocide in Rwanda. We are watching, not genocide, but the destruction of a nation. The upshot either way is thousands of innocents are slaughtered whilst we watch on.

    Our declarations "but Ukraine is not in NATO" are sops to ourselves.They are a sovereign nation invaded by an aggressor and we (the West) have sanctioned 70% of Russian banks. Huh, 70%?

    Now I don't want British troops involved, I don't want my children conscripted for a world war, but neither can I sit back with satisfaction and claim leaders representing me have done all they can on my behalf, they haven't. In some cases, their vested interests trump my horror.

    I don't know how to counter Putin, that is not my job. But neither, it seems, do those whose job it is to deal with Putin.

    I am not suggesting a party political or Remainer/ Leave bias here. Whoever they represent, Western leaders have been guilty of dereliction of duty for at least eight years and that includes Starmer and your beloved "Boris".
    When I was calling for us to act against Russia in 2014, 2016 (I think), 2018, etc, etc, where was your voice? Were you in the "Russia's ambitions are detrimental to the world; we need to act hard" camp or the "You're a warmonger risking WWIII" camp?

    Because actions then would have been a damned sight easier than they are now. And we still face a threat of WWIII.

    And, don't you blame me. I was outraged that we in the West did nothing about a downed airliner. We begged for permission to recover our bodies. That single act was brushed under the carpet. That represents the West sitting on its hands while Putin toyed with us.
    283 innocent civilians including 80 children.

    And we basically did bugger all.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,912
    edited February 2022

    MattW said:

    Russia is ending its cooperation on space launches and withdrawing all personnel and launch crews from French Guiana.

    https://twitter.com/roscosmos/status/1497456827881172994

    Hmmm. Impact on Oneweb of all this?

    They use launch sites in Russia.
    And Russian rockets.

    They're in big trouble, sadly.
    Though they have the network in place for North of 50 degrees, and are offering services iirc.

    The bottleneck being the supply of groundstations, or whatever they are called now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,252

    If you run a government that is entirely built on lies like Putin, don't be surprised when it turns out your generals were lying to you when they said they could overrun Kyiv in 48 hours.

    I am fairly sure they could have done.

    However, they seem to have been trying to minimise damage so far, presumably for political and emotional reasons (We will liberate historic Ukraine which is so much part of Russia by er, flattening it and killing all its people). They have, for example, not put forward all the soldiers they have on the border yet, just a third of them.

    I do not see how Kyiv could hold for long against the full strength of the Russian army committed to seizing it at all costs, but the damage in that scenario would be enormous and even RT would have a hard time explaining it away.

    That is not in any way to minimise the courage or stubbornness of the defence, or to note that the planning by Russia's military doesn't look very smart so far. But at the same time, we need to remember the Russians have constrained themselves somewhat by the approach they have taken.

    I only hope they don't change their minds, but I fear they will. They can't afford not to win now, their military credibility is on the line.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,260
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Yesterday Dom was denying Russia had any influence over Brexit.

    today...

    Dominic Cummings: the Tory Party has been “financed by Putin’s mates for decades” and Russia has been able to sway the British electorate.
    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/tories-financed-by-putins-mates-for-decades-and-russia-did-influence-uk-votes-dominic-cummings-claims/ar-AAUfK8S?ocid=st

    Corbyn and Salmond and Farage were far more supported by Putin than any Tory leader was. Putin also supported Brexit in 2016 which Cummings backed over Cameron
    mental Tory talks mince
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,260
    eek said:

    malcolmg said:

    On topic, yay, an AV thread.

    with pineapple?
    I'm currently drinking a glass of pineapple juice.
    Ham and cheese pizza 🍕 as a chaser?
    Ham and cheese with pineapple would be all right.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,444
    edited February 2022

    If you run a government that is entirely built on lies like Putin, don't be surprised when it turns out your generals were lying to you when they said they could overrun Kyiv in 48 hours.

    Also you'll find it difficult to make progress if most of your soldiers have poor morale, which seems likely.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,989

    Quincel said:

    - “… electoral reform is all the rage these days.”

    I’m sorry Quincel, but you can’t make such a sweeping (and contentious) opening statement and then back in up with three teensy-weensy examples from minor English-speaking jurisdictions (Maine, England and Alaska). That is so parochial it is beyond words (English majors?! - guffaw - c’mon!)

    There is a whole planet out there, speaking thousands of languages. If such a sweeping statement had any basis in reality then it would be easy to cite convincing global examples.

    I think you are interpreting that line more strongly than I meant it when I wrote it. The article is about Alaska and their new electoral system, that's just meant to kick off the topic. If I listed enough examples from all over the world to convince you the article would never get on to anything else.

    (Although, I do think you saying that two US states don't count as 'convincing examples' is rather harsh.)
    I’m easy to convince, and use the “ three examples suffices” rule a lot myself.

    If you are aware of three *significant* examples worldwide of ongoing or recent reform then feel free to enlighten me.

    I realise it’s only an intro, but I was disappointed by the insignificance and flimsinesses of the examples used to support your assertion. Far from “Global Britain”, Brexit seems to be drastically reducing horizons. Do we only see humans who look like and talk like us? Tragic if true.
    Jesus Christ it was a slightly hyperbolic tease of an opener not some psychological symptom of Brexitisis. Not everything is about Brexit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,989
    A successful write in for such a significant position is genuinely remarkable, I'm amazed both that it is an actual legal thing and that it worked.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited February 2022
    Aeroflot Moscow to Athens - before the Polish/Czechia overflight bans took around three and a half hours - now it’s taking five and a quarter. Moscow-Budapest, was 2.20, now 3.40.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,260

    Taz said:

    BA cancels all short haul flights

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60533275

    Tit for tat cyber attack after we blocked Aeroflot?
    No, just crap BA IT.
    They will have been cheapskating no doubt.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,989
    moonshine said:

    James Heappey MP (Armed Forces minister) pretty impressive on Sky News.

    One to watch.

    It has been fascinating watching Tom Tugendhat on the news. A Lieutenant-Colonel with experience in both Iraq and Afghanistan - and then with the civilian administration in the latter. Notably shish-kebabs the Big Dog at every opportunity on his lack of comprehension of foreign affairs. A declared candidate for leader should a contest arise. And he continues to lead from the front, detailed criticism of the PM and our woeful position.

    I know that some people think Ukraine saves the Big Dog, that there can be no move against him now. But remember the facts - the PM is a bumbling incompetent cretin with no grasp for detail. Fucking up this crisis is almost as certain as the sun setting in the west later.

    So could Tugendhat rise from relative obscurity and be a real challenger when a vacancy does occur - or help force one?
    I am told he lacks the personal support of Tory MPs.
    Boris did too, once. Until they got desperate.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,252
    edited February 2022
    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    BA cancels all short haul flights

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60533275

    Tit for tat cyber attack after we blocked Aeroflot?
    No, just crap BA IT.
    They will have been cheapskating no doubt.
    They knew there was a problem but because they are BA they delayed check in.

    Ah, my coat...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,260
    Heathener said:

    Chelsea could go bust

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10553871/Chelsea-BUST-owner-Roman-Abramovich-hit-sanctions.html

    I've been calling for a clean up of dirty Russian money for years.

    The problem here is that the Premier League is awash with dirty money and so is London. We host the Arms Fair every two years which directly contributes to dirty regimes.

    And whilst I definitely want to ban Abramovich and his fellow Putin-loving Russian mafia, what about Saudi Arabia? What about Qatar?

    I love Qatar Airways but I'm under no illusion about the country behind it.

    Corruption runs deep and money talks. That's why the stock markets soared yesterday. They know our sanctions are feeble.

    Hardly soared given they are all well down over the year and dropped like a brick earlier in teh week. If you are going to talk such mince at least try to dress it up as fillet steak.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,989

    Andy_JS said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Yokes said:

    dixiedean said:

    If you'd told me 48 hours ago that there would be even a question about Russia winning this War.

    Depends what winning is considered to be, doesn't it
    Presumably it'd be hard for Russia to not come out ahead in terms of gained territory etc, given the disparities, but the ambition shown by the initial assaults would suggest limited gains (or failure to exact regime change etc) would be a failure?
    But the 'disputed' territory is held by Russia already. Surely everywhere else would face massive resistance?
    The area claimed by the 'independent' republics was not entirely held by them. I'd assumed if a limited goal was intended it was to expand that area so that the entire areas claimed by them would be under their control. Even if that was all they managed, it would still be a gain.
    Not much of one.
    Considering what has been lost.
    Russia has lost all credibility in the civilised world. I really don't know where it goes from here.
    Regime change. It is Putin that is the problem. The Russian people are his victims too.
    Russia is the problem. All of my life they've been threatening my death. This must lead to the end of Russia.
    That is crazy talk. Russia is a geographic fact. Do you plan genocide?
    Craziness is not confined to Russia. Brexit for example was a blatantly crazy movement, and continues to drive its proponents bonkers.

    We should not be surprised when we see people willing on nuclear annihilation. It is going to happen one day. It is inevitable.
    I'm a little concerned that Russia might consider us a combatant in this war because of the weapons we've supplied to Ukraine.
    Given the history of the Cold War, with either sides arming about every country engaged in any conflict, that would be odd.

    However, Putin isn't acting exactly sanely IMO.

    But there's another point: we cannot let fear of his actions to stop us from doing the right thing. For as long as we fear him, he will win.
    In particular the implication from some online with the idea 'if people resist he might do something much worse' is that nothing should ever be done.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,684
    edited February 2022
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    BA cancels all short haul flights

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60533275

    Tit for tat cyber attack after we blocked Aeroflot?
    No, just crap BA IT.
    They will have been cheapskating no doubt.
    They knew there was a problem but because they are BA they delayed check in.

    Ah, my coat...
    They certainly thought they'd wing it.

    Edit: Probably unfair to BA ...
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited February 2022
    Taz said:

    BA cancels all short haul flights

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60533275

    They're denying it's a cyber attack. Just incompetent IT. Dunno?

    Stillwaters: no I don't. There's no need or place to go Ad Hominem with people with whom you have a different Weltenshauung. This site would be a poorer place if we had monochromatic viewpoints and, if we have the good grace and humility, we can learn. For example I really didn't think Putin would be stupid enough to invade. I was wrong, but then didn't reckon on Putin going full tonto. For the most part I respectfully disagree with posters on the Right but try to avoid going Ad Hominem (occasionally I'm riled into it). Suggesting someone sows dissent deliberately is one step removed from calling them a troll, which is the weakest moment in any poster's life. Engage with the issues and play the ball not the lady. Ta.
  • There are quite a few videos of Russian tanks that have run out of fuel or been abandoned. It seems the have problem with logistics and morale.

    I have a colleague in my network who was a Royal Navy captain and really knows his onions.

    He's adamant that Russian forces aren't as strong as they look on paper because their raw material, training, and staff work is highly variable, whereas British forces are tip-top.

    Basically, his argument was that military effectiveness, just as in all other walks of life, comes down to people and organisational culture.
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Yesterday Dom was denying Russia had any influence over Brexit.

    today...

    Dominic Cummings: the Tory Party has been “financed by Putin’s mates for decades” and Russia has been able to sway the British electorate.
    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/tories-financed-by-putins-mates-for-decades-and-russia-did-influence-uk-votes-dominic-cummings-claims/ar-AAUfK8S?ocid=st

    Corbyn and Salmond and Farage were far more supported by Putin than any Tory leader was. Putin also supported Brexit in 2016 which Cummings backed over Cameron
    But what Putin really wants is other countries to be reduced to toxic bickering between terrible people. Then he can point and laugh at how bad democracy is.

    Corbyn, Salmond, Farage may be some of the legs on that stool, but there can easily be others.
  • Reports 27 countries are actively providing weapons to Ukraine

    Time for us to unite, stop sniping, and be proud of the response currently on its way from nations across the world

    I'm sorry BigG. We in the West have done next to nothing. There is good reason why we have done next to nothing we don't want Putin to escalate this fiasco to involve the EU and the UK.

    Clinton's biggest regret was he did nothing about the genocide in Rwanda. We are watching, not genocide, but the destruction of a nation. The upshot either way is thousands of innocents are slaughtered whilst we watch on.

    Our declarations "but Ukraine is not in NATO" are sops to ourselves.They are a sovereign nation invaded by an aggressor and we (the West) have sanctioned 70% of Russian banks. Huh, 70%?

    Now I don't want British troops involved, I don't want my children conscripted for a world war, but neither can I sit back with satisfaction and claim leaders representing me have done all they can on my behalf, they haven't. In some cases, their vested interests trump my horror.

    I don't know how to counter Putin, that is not my job. But neither, it seems, do those whose job it is to deal with Putin.

    I am not suggesting a party political or Remainer/ Leave bias here. Whoever they represent, Western leaders have been guilty of dereliction of duty for at least eight years and that includes Starmer and your beloved "Boris".
    When I was calling for us to act against Russia in 2014, 2016 (I think), 2018, etc, etc, where was your voice? Were you in the "Russia's ambitions are detrimental to the world; we need to act hard" camp or the "You're a warmonger risking WWIII" camp?

    Because actions then would have been a damned sight easier than they are now. And we still face a threat of WWIII.
    Yes they would, which is why I have cited eight years of inaction and dereliction of duty by Western leaders.

    And, don't you blame me. I was outraged that we in the West did nothing about a downed airliner. We begged for permission to recover our bodies. That single act was brushed under the carpet. That represents the West sitting on its hands while Putin toyed with us.

    I was with Elwood weeks ago when he demanded NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine. That is recorded here.
    I'm talking about calling for action over the last eight years. This could have been prevented. It should have been prevented. It was predicted.

    And yes, a Conservative / coalition government has been in place for that time. But remember Miliband's hideous backturn over the Syria vote? Remember Corbyn, Labour's leader, who pretended to be rather (ahem) anti-war?

    Putin has gambled that the west's weaknesses would prevent us from stopping his territorial ambitions. The UK's negligence played into it - but the blame lies all over the west. It was too hard to do, so it wasn't done.

    (I'd actually argue May did very well over Salisbury, although it could have been used as a catalyst for firmer actions.)
    What did we actually *do* about Salisbury, Josias?

    Sorry but I'm with Yokes on this one.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,117
    edited February 2022

    Aeroflot Moscow to Athens - before the Polish/Czechia overflight bans took around three and a half hours - now it’s taking five and a quarter. Moscow-Budapest, was 2.20, now 3.40.

    They might even get banned from there eventually as well. I spoke to two friends from Italy and Greece yesterday and the general upshot was they'd never known such a mood of feeling against Russia. There's traditionally a lot of ambivalence in both countries on this topic, but there's even been demonstations by the far left against Putin in both countries. That almost never happens.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,934
    BREAKING: Poland to boycott their World Cup qualifier against Russia next month. "No more words, time to act! This is the only right decision. We are in talks with the 🇸🇪 and 🇨🇿 federations to present a common position to FIFA." More on @BBCBreakfast https://twitter.com/Czarek_Kulesza/status/1497489152434061315
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Andy_JS said:

    If you run a government that is entirely built on lies like Putin, don't be surprised when it turns out your generals were lying to you when they said they could overrun Kyiv in 48 hours.

    Also you'll find it difficult to make progress if most of your soldiers have poor morale, which seems likely.
    It would be so interesting to know what they really think. Do the Russian military on the ground really believe in this?

    Mind you, at risk of doing a Godwin, plenty of Hitler's Generals knew he was bonkers, hated the man, but still went along with it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,989
    Scott_xP said:

    Worth remembering Ukraine's Maidan revolution was sparked by its people's desire for closer trade links with the EU.

    'The Russia-Ukraine crisis has shown Boris Johnson that the EU is not the enemy, Putin is.'


    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/russia-ukraine-war-how-many-brexit-promises-failed-materialise-1484648?ito=twitter_share_article-top

    The EU was always a friend. The question was about being members. Sadly both sides get caught up in rhetoric of political opposition and act like enemies, including pretty petty shit about not cooperating on things.

    I'd like to believe that will change but it won't. Theyll remember we are close allies for a time they ratchet up the enemy language later.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,934
    You couldn’t make it up. Home Office put out a briefing today explaining how refugees (like Ukrainians) traveling through third countries (like Poland and other adjacent countries) to the UK should be sent back whence they came https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nationality-and-borders-bill-inadmissibility-third-country-connections/nationality-and-borders-bill-inadmissibility-for-those-travelling-through-or-with-a-connection-to-safe-third-countries https://twitter.com/ColinYeo1/status/1497326156336541696/photo/1
  • Dmitry Medvedev in Russia is proposing to reinstate capital punishment.
    The level of domestic repression that this conflict will produce will be unmatched.


    https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1497498675412709378

    I think he means “officially” as they’ve had it extra-judicially for years.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835
    edited February 2022

    There are quite a few videos of Russian tanks that have run out of fuel or been abandoned. It seems the have problem with logistics and morale.

    I have a colleague in my network who was a Royal Navy captain and really knows his onions.

    He's adamant that Russian forces aren't as strong as they look on paper because their raw material, training, and staff work is highly variable, whereas British forces are tip-top.

    Basically, his argument was that military effectiveness, just as in all other walks of life, comes down to people and organisational culture.
    Except that the British military tends to have a hugely inflated perception of its own comparative effectiveness. Cf what we were saying about the Americans when we went in to replace them in Basra, brutally exposed as hubris by subsequent events
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,284
    edited February 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Putin’s main achievement in the last 48 hours is making President Zelensky a global hero. His quote to Americans offering to evacuate him “I need ammunition, not a ride”.
    https://twitter.com/StigAbell/status/1497486155448737794

    Bolstered not just by his bravery but in the heat of battle, his withering put down of Draghi and the contrast when in conversation with the bumbling fool, who could only muster but a rather disappointing "oh dear" contribution to the dialogue.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,260

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Yesterday Dom was denying Russia had any influence over Brexit.

    today...

    Dominic Cummings: the Tory Party has been “financed by Putin’s mates for decades” and Russia has been able to sway the British electorate.
    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/tories-financed-by-putins-mates-for-decades-and-russia-did-influence-uk-votes-dominic-cummings-claims/ar-AAUfK8S?ocid=st

    Corbyn and Salmond and Farage were far more supported by Putin than any Tory leader was. Putin also supported Brexit in 2016 which Cummings backed over Cameron
    But what Putin really wants is other countries to be reduced to toxic bickering between terrible people. Then he can point and laugh at how bad democracy is.

    Corbyn, Salmond, Farage may be some of the legs on that stool, but there can easily be others.
    You miss out all the main suspects I see, you are more a Tory in the grass rather than a snake methinks.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,401

    Reports 27 countries are actively providing weapons to Ukraine

    Time for us to unite, stop sniping, and be proud of the response currently on its way from nations across the world

    I'm sorry BigG. We in the West have done next to nothing. There is good reason why we have done next to nothing we don't want Putin to escalate this fiasco to involve the EU and the UK.

    Clinton's biggest regret was he did nothing about the genocide in Rwanda. We are watching, not genocide, but the destruction of a nation. The upshot either way is thousands of innocents are slaughtered whilst we watch on.

    Our declarations "but Ukraine is not in NATO" are sops to ourselves.They are a sovereign nation invaded by an aggressor and we (the West) have sanctioned 70% of Russian banks. Huh, 70%?

    Now I don't want British troops involved, I don't want my children conscripted for a world war, but neither can I sit back with satisfaction and claim leaders representing me have done all they can on my behalf, they haven't. In some cases, their vested interests trump my horror.

    I don't know how to counter Putin, that is not my job. But neither, it seems, do those whose job it is to deal with Putin.

    I am not suggesting a party political or Remainer/ Leave bias here. Whoever they represent, Western leaders have been guilty of dereliction of duty for at least eight years and that includes Starmer and your beloved "Boris".
    When I was calling for us to act against Russia in 2014, 2016 (I think), 2018, etc, etc, where was your voice? Were you in the "Russia's ambitions are detrimental to the world; we need to act hard" camp or the "You're a warmonger risking WWIII" camp?

    Because actions then would have been a damned sight easier than they are now. And we still face a threat of WWIII.
    Yes they would, which is why I have cited eight years of inaction and dereliction of duty by Western leaders.

    And, don't you blame me. I was outraged that we in the West did nothing about a downed airliner. We begged for permission to recover our bodies. That single act was brushed under the carpet. That represents the West sitting on its hands while Putin toyed with us.

    I was with Elwood weeks ago when he demanded NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine. That is recorded here.
    I'm talking about calling for action over the last eight years. This could have been prevented. It should have been prevented. It was predicted.

    And yes, a Conservative / coalition government has been in place for that time. But remember Miliband's hideous backturn over the Syria vote? Remember Corbyn, Labour's leader, who pretended to be rather (ahem) anti-war?

    Putin has gambled that the west's weaknesses would prevent us from stopping his territorial ambitions. The UK's negligence played into it - but the blame lies all over the west. It was too hard to do, so it wasn't done.

    (I'd actually argue May did very well over Salisbury, although it could have been used as a catalyst for firmer actions.)
    What did we actually *do* about Salisbury, Josias?

    Sorry but I'm with Yokes on this one.
    A good summary.
    https://www.chathamhouse.org/2018/03/britains-response-salisbury-attack-net-assessment

    But yes we could, and should, have done more. But part of the problem was that the world wasn't with us.
  • Reports 27 countries are actively providing weapons to Ukraine

    Time for us to unite, stop sniping, and be proud of the response currently on its way from nations across the world

    I'm sorry BigG. We in the West have done next to nothing. There is good reason why we have done next to nothing we don't want Putin to escalate this fiasco to involve the EU and the UK.

    Clinton's biggest regret was he did nothing about the genocide in Rwanda. We are watching, not genocide, but the destruction of a nation. The upshot either way is thousands of innocents are slaughtered whilst we watch on.

    Our declarations "but Ukraine is not in NATO" are sops to ourselves.They are a sovereign nation invaded by an aggressor and we (the West) have sanctioned 70% of Russian banks. Huh, 70%?

    Now I don't want British troops involved, I don't want my children conscripted for a world war, but neither can I sit back with satisfaction and claim leaders representing me have done all they can on my behalf, they haven't. In some cases, their vested interests trump my horror.

    I don't know how to counter Putin, that is not my job. But neither, it seems, do those whose job it is to deal with Putin.

    I am not suggesting a party political or Remainer/ Leave bias here. Whoever they represent, Western leaders have been guilty of dereliction of duty for at least eight years and that includes Starmer and your beloved "Boris".
    When I was calling for us to act against Russia in 2014, 2016 (I think), 2018, etc, etc, where was your voice? Were you in the "Russia's ambitions are detrimental to the world; we need to act hard" camp or the "You're a warmonger risking WWIII" camp?

    Because actions then would have been a damned sight easier than they are now. And we still face a threat of WWIII.
    Yes they would, which is why I have cited eight years of inaction and dereliction of duty by Western leaders.

    And, don't you blame me. I was outraged that we in the West did nothing about a downed airliner. We begged for permission to recover our bodies. That single act was brushed under the carpet. That represents the West sitting on its hands while Putin toyed with us.

    I was with Elwood weeks ago when he demanded NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine. That is recorded here.
    I'm talking about calling for action over the last eight years. This could have been prevented. It should have been prevented. It was predicted.

    And yes, a Conservative / coalition government has been in place for that time. But remember Miliband's hideous backturn over the Syria vote? Remember Corbyn, Labour's leader, who pretended to be rather (ahem) anti-war?

    Putin has gambled that the west's weaknesses would prevent us from stopping his territorial ambitions. The UK's negligence played into it - but the blame lies all over the west. It was too hard to do, so it wasn't done.

    (I'd actually argue May did very well over Salisbury, although it could have been used as a catalyst for firmer actions.)
    What did we actually *do* about Salisbury, Josias?

    Sorry but I'm with Yokes on this one.
    The UK's official assessment of the incident was supported by 28 other countries which responded similarly. Altogether, an unprecedented 153 Russian diplomats were expelled by the end of March 2018.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,690
    Scott_xP said:

    Head of MI6 endorses @LawDavF's take on why Putin will fail. Which is itself fascinating.
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1497481660400553984
    https://twitter.com/ChiefMI6/status/1497290589360070665

    That's a great article by an expert on warfare, Lawrence Freedman.
    https://samf.substack.com/p/a-reckless-gamble
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,260

    Dmitry Medvedev in Russia is proposing to reinstate capital punishment.
    The level of domestic repression that this conflict will produce will be unmatched.


    https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1497498675412709378

    I think he means “officially” as they’ve had it extra-judicially for years.

    I thought they just chucked people out of hotel windows to save the cash and hassle of capital punishment officially.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,989
    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Worth remembering Ukraine's Maidan revolution was sparked by its people's desire for closer trade links with the EU.

    'The Russia-Ukraine crisis has shown Boris Johnson that the EU is not the enemy, Putin is.'


    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/russia-ukraine-war-how-many-brexit-promises-failed-materialise-1484648?ito=twitter_share_article-top

    What would have been interesting is what no 10 would have said if Ukraine had applied for EU membership .

    Trashing that wouldn’t have been a good look especially as it would have meant he was on the same side as Putin .

    What they should say in that situation is that while EU membership is not best for everyone it would s great thing for Ukraine. I bet usual suspects wouldn't be able to manage that though.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,245
    IanB2 said:

    There are quite a few videos of Russian tanks that have run out of fuel or been abandoned. It seems the have problem with logistics and morale.

    I have a colleague in my network who was a Royal Navy captain and really knows his onions.

    He's adamant that Russian forces aren't as strong as they look on paper because their raw material, training, and staff work is highly variable, whereas British forces are tip-top.

    Basically, his argument was that military effectiveness, just as in all other walks of life, comes down to people and organisational culture.
    Except that the British military tends to have a hugely inflated perception of its own comparative effectiveness. Cf what we were saying about the Americans when we went in to replace them in Basra, brutally exposed as hubris by subsequent events
    That may be true, but that does not mean that CR's colleague is wrong. I think it's quite apparent now, that the Russian army is not performing as it ought. Adam Whitehead has been posting interesting reports about this. One reason why Russian tank losses are so heavy is that they're failing to support them with infantry, which is pretty basic stuff; when you look at old footage from WWII, you almost always see waves of infantry advancing behind Soviet tanks.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,934
    This is Ukrainian President Zelensky’s direct appeal to the Russian people, asking them to help stop #Putin ‘s unprovoked war against #Ukraine. Knowing it will be banned on Russian TV he pleads for his words to be shared on social media . LINK HERE 👉🏽: https://youtu.be/gMghAnt-4K0 https://twitter.com/SangitaMyska/status/1497499518706896901/photo/1
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,835
    edited February 2022
    Alaska used to be part of the Tsarist Empire until the Americans bought it in 1867. That's another chunk of the world we can add to the list of places that Looney Tunes covets from his bunker.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,349
    ydoethur said:

    If you run a government that is entirely built on lies like Putin, don't be surprised when it turns out your generals were lying to you when they said they could overrun Kyiv in 48 hours.

    I am fairly sure they could have done.

    However, they seem to have been trying to minimise damage so far, presumably for political and emotional reasons (We will liberate historic Ukraine which is so much part of Russia by er, flattening it and killing all its people). They have, for example, not put forward all the soldiers they have on the border yet, just a third of them.

    I do not see how Kyiv could hold for long against the full strength of the Russian army committed to seizing it at all costs, but the damage in that scenario would be enormous and even RT would have a hard time explaining it away.

    That is not in any way to minimise the courage or stubbornness of the defence, or to note that the planning by Russia's military doesn't look very smart so far. But at the same time, we need to remember the Russians have constrained themselves somewhat by the approach they have taken.

    I only hope they don't change their minds, but I fear they will. They can't afford not to win now, their military credibility is on the line.
    Russia still has a way out, a peace agreement where it makes territorial advances and gets agreement that Ukraine doesn't join NATO. This will probably be hailed by the world as a positive step and 'peace in our time', sanctions removed, gas back on, etc etc. Win win for everyone, can kicked down the road.

    I don't think Russia needs to 'win'. It only claimed its objectives were the security of certain regions in Ukraine and no NATO membership for Ukraine. It can cash out now and be ahead, and the world goes on as it did before. It is tragic and sad, but the state of the world.
  • Reports 27 countries are actively providing weapons to Ukraine

    Time for us to unite, stop sniping, and be proud of the response currently on its way from nations across the world

    I'm sorry BigG. We in the West have done next to nothing. There is good reason why we have done next to nothing we don't want Putin to escalate this fiasco to involve the EU and the UK.

    Clinton's biggest regret was he did nothing about the genocide in Rwanda. We are watching, not genocide, but the destruction of a nation. The upshot either way is thousands of innocents are slaughtered whilst we watch on.

    Our declarations "but Ukraine is not in NATO" are sops to ourselves.They are a sovereign nation invaded by an aggressor and we (the West) have sanctioned 70% of Russian banks. Huh, 70%?

    Now I don't want British troops involved, I don't want my children conscripted for a world war, but neither can I sit back with satisfaction and claim leaders representing me have done all they can on my behalf, they haven't. In some cases, their vested interests trump my horror.

    I don't know how to counter Putin, that is not my job. But neither, it seems, do those whose job it is to deal with Putin.

    I am not suggesting a party political or Remainer/ Leave bias here. Whoever they represent, Western leaders have been guilty of dereliction of duty for at least eight years and that includes Starmer and your beloved "Boris".
    When I was calling for us to act against Russia in 2014, 2016 (I think), 2018, etc, etc, where was your voice? Were you in the "Russia's ambitions are detrimental to the world; we need to act hard" camp or the "You're a warmonger risking WWIII" camp?

    Because actions then would have been a damned sight easier than they are now. And we still face a threat of WWIII.
    Yes they would, which is why I have cited eight years of inaction and dereliction of duty by Western leaders.

    And, don't you blame me. I was outraged that we in the West did nothing about a downed airliner. We begged for permission to recover our bodies. That single act was brushed under the carpet. That represents the West sitting on its hands while Putin toyed with us.

    I was with Elwood weeks ago when he demanded NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine. That is recorded here.
    I'm talking about calling for action over the last eight years. This could have been prevented. It should have been prevented. It was predicted.

    And yes, a Conservative / coalition government has been in place for that time. But remember Miliband's hideous backturn over the Syria vote? Remember Corbyn, Labour's leader, who pretended to be rather (ahem) anti-war?

    Putin has gambled that the west's weaknesses would prevent us from stopping his territorial ambitions. The UK's negligence played into it - but the blame lies all over the west. It was too hard to do, so it wasn't done.

    (I'd actually argue May did very well over Salisbury, although it could have been used as a catalyst for firmer actions.)
    I think Putin thinks the West is a wet lettuce.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,462
    Barnesian said:

    dixiedean said:

    If Google Maps is anything to go by, the Russians have completely penetrated downtown Kyiv.

    Google Maps shows troop positions now?
    It shows current traffic congestion in Kyiv.

    Most roads fairly clear but congestion on the bridge.


    How weird is seeing that, live from a battlefield?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,260

    Reports 27 countries are actively providing weapons to Ukraine

    Time for us to unite, stop sniping, and be proud of the response currently on its way from nations across the world

    I'm sorry BigG. We in the West have done next to nothing. There is good reason why we have done next to nothing we don't want Putin to escalate this fiasco to involve the EU and the UK.

    Clinton's biggest regret was he did nothing about the genocide in Rwanda. We are watching, not genocide, but the destruction of a nation. The upshot either way is thousands of innocents are slaughtered whilst we watch on.

    Our declarations "but Ukraine is not in NATO" are sops to ourselves.They are a sovereign nation invaded by an aggressor and we (the West) have sanctioned 70% of Russian banks. Huh, 70%?

    Now I don't want British troops involved, I don't want my children conscripted for a world war, but neither can I sit back with satisfaction and claim leaders representing me have done all they can on my behalf, they haven't. In some cases, their vested interests trump my horror.

    I don't know how to counter Putin, that is not my job. But neither, it seems, do those whose job it is to deal with Putin.

    I am not suggesting a party political or Remainer/ Leave bias here. Whoever they represent, Western leaders have been guilty of dereliction of duty for at least eight years and that includes Starmer and your beloved "Boris".
    When I was calling for us to act against Russia in 2014, 2016 (I think), 2018, etc, etc, where was your voice? Were you in the "Russia's ambitions are detrimental to the world; we need to act hard" camp or the "You're a warmonger risking WWIII" camp?

    Because actions then would have been a damned sight easier than they are now. And we still face a threat of WWIII.
    Yes they would, which is why I have cited eight years of inaction and dereliction of duty by Western leaders.

    And, don't you blame me. I was outraged that we in the West did nothing about a downed airliner. We begged for permission to recover our bodies. That single act was brushed under the carpet. That represents the West sitting on its hands while Putin toyed with us.

    I was with Elwood weeks ago when he demanded NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine. That is recorded here.
    I'm talking about calling for action over the last eight years. This could have been prevented. It should have been prevented. It was predicted.

    And yes, a Conservative / coalition government has been in place for that time. But remember Miliband's hideous backturn over the Syria vote? Remember Corbyn, Labour's leader, who pretended to be rather (ahem) anti-war?

    Putin has gambled that the west's weaknesses would prevent us from stopping his territorial ambitions. The UK's negligence played into it - but the blame lies all over the west. It was too hard to do, so it wasn't done.

    (I'd actually argue May did very well over Salisbury, although it could have been used as a catalyst for firmer actions.)
    What did we actually *do* about Salisbury, Josias?

    Sorry but I'm with Yokes on this one.
    The UK's official assessment of the incident was supported by 28 other countries which responded similarly. Altogether, an unprecedented 153 Russian diplomats were expelled by the end of March 2018.
    They should chuck the whole lot of them out now.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,260

    Reports 27 countries are actively providing weapons to Ukraine

    Time for us to unite, stop sniping, and be proud of the response currently on its way from nations across the world

    I'm sorry BigG. We in the West have done next to nothing. There is good reason why we have done next to nothing we don't want Putin to escalate this fiasco to involve the EU and the UK.

    Clinton's biggest regret was he did nothing about the genocide in Rwanda. We are watching, not genocide, but the destruction of a nation. The upshot either way is thousands of innocents are slaughtered whilst we watch on.

    Our declarations "but Ukraine is not in NATO" are sops to ourselves.They are a sovereign nation invaded by an aggressor and we (the West) have sanctioned 70% of Russian banks. Huh, 70%?

    Now I don't want British troops involved, I don't want my children conscripted for a world war, but neither can I sit back with satisfaction and claim leaders representing me have done all they can on my behalf, they haven't. In some cases, their vested interests trump my horror.

    I don't know how to counter Putin, that is not my job. But neither, it seems, do those whose job it is to deal with Putin.

    I am not suggesting a party political or Remainer/ Leave bias here. Whoever they represent, Western leaders have been guilty of dereliction of duty for at least eight years and that includes Starmer and your beloved "Boris".
    When I was calling for us to act against Russia in 2014, 2016 (I think), 2018, etc, etc, where was your voice? Were you in the "Russia's ambitions are detrimental to the world; we need to act hard" camp or the "You're a warmonger risking WWIII" camp?

    Because actions then would have been a damned sight easier than they are now. And we still face a threat of WWIII.
    Yes they would, which is why I have cited eight years of inaction and dereliction of duty by Western leaders.

    And, don't you blame me. I was outraged that we in the West did nothing about a downed airliner. We begged for permission to recover our bodies. That single act was brushed under the carpet. That represents the West sitting on its hands while Putin toyed with us.

    I was with Elwood weeks ago when he demanded NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine. That is recorded here.
    I'm talking about calling for action over the last eight years. This could have been prevented. It should have been prevented. It was predicted.

    And yes, a Conservative / coalition government has been in place for that time. But remember Miliband's hideous backturn over the Syria vote? Remember Corbyn, Labour's leader, who pretended to be rather (ahem) anti-war?

    Putin has gambled that the west's weaknesses would prevent us from stopping his territorial ambitions. The UK's negligence played into it - but the blame lies all over the west. It was too hard to do, so it wasn't done.

    (I'd actually argue May did very well over Salisbury, although it could have been used as a catalyst for firmer actions.)
    I think Putin thinks the West is a wet lettuce.
    So far he has been proven correct in that assessment.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,296
    Heathener said:

    Chelsea could go bust

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10553871/Chelsea-BUST-owner-Roman-Abramovich-hit-sanctions.html

    I've been calling for a clean up of dirty Russian money for years.

    The problem here is that the Premier League is awash with dirty money and so is London. We host the Arms Fair every two years which directly contributes to dirty regimes.

    And whilst I definitely want to ban Abramovich and his fellow Putin-loving Russian mafia, what about Saudi Arabia? What about Qatar?

    I love Qatar Airways but I'm under no illusion about the country behind it.

    Corruption runs deep and money talks. That's why the stock markets soared yesterday. They know our sanctions are feeble.

    It Is nothing to do with U.K. sanctions alone it is Global sanctions. Businesses listed in London are multinational. They respond to global events not U.K. events
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,800
    ydoethur said:

    If you run a government that is entirely built on lies like Putin, don't be surprised when it turns out your generals were lying to you when they said they could overrun Kyiv in 48 hours.

    I am fairly sure they could have done.

    However, they seem to have been trying to minimise damage so far, presumably for political and emotional reasons (We will liberate historic Ukraine which is so much part of Russia by er, flattening it and killing all its people). They have, for example, not put forward all the soldiers they have on the border yet, just a third of them.

    I do not see how Kyiv could hold for long against the full strength of the Russian army committed to seizing it at all costs, but the damage in that scenario would be enormous and even RT would have a hard time explaining it away.

    That is not in any way to minimise the courage or stubbornness of the defence, or to note that the planning by Russia's military doesn't look very smart so far. But at the same time, we need to remember the Russians have constrained themselves somewhat by the approach they have taken.

    I only hope they don't change their minds, but I fear they will. They can't afford not to win now, their military credibility is on the line.
    They could take Kiev which let's face it isn't far from the Belarus border. But what about the other eastern cities? They would need to maintain a very large number of troops in Kiev to quell any insurgency. I don't think he has the troop numbers to hold even half of Ukraine medium term.

    My biggest fear about Putin is that he's become a madman. Will there be anyone in Moscow to give him the vodka and revolver? Will the Russian protests be big enough. I assume Saturday is day off in Moscow/St Petersburg?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    There are quite a few videos of Russian tanks that have run out of fuel or been abandoned. It seems the have problem with logistics and morale.

    I have a colleague in my network who was a Royal Navy captain and really knows his onions.

    He's adamant that Russian forces aren't as strong as they look on paper because their raw material, training, and staff work is highly variable, whereas British forces are tip-top.

    Basically, his argument was that military effectiveness, just as in all other walks of life, comes down to people and organisational culture.
    Yep.

    When I worked for a short while in intelligence (sorry that disappoints you MM) that was very much the prevailing view.

    I admit I'm way out of touch these days, and left that behind long ago, but it did become something of a running joke.

    Russian military might was vastly exaggerated. This may have changed and their intelligence and cyber warfare suggests they are a different entity now.
  • DougSeal said:

    I do wish everyone on U.K. political internet (here and Twitter included) would look at the events in Ukraine outside the prism of our own domestic obsessions. I’ve seen views ranging from “if the U.K. had stopped NATO expanding then Putin would have stuck to his original dream of being an artisanal chocolatier” to “this only happened because of Brexit”. This is deeply narcissistic at best. This has very little, if anything, to do with U.K. action or inaction.

    Kind of true. It does have little to with UK action and inaction but it does have plenty to do with the West being divided both collectively as a group of nations and internally within each country. UK action and inaction plays a part in that, and many of the dilemmas we have faced in the UK have their parallels in other Western countries, so by looking internally we get a reasonable picture of how the West have got into this position.

    For the avoidance of doubt none of this changes it all being Putin's fault and responsibility but if the West had managed to stay as cohesive as it was in 2000 say, then this would not be happening.
  • moonshine said:

    James Heappey MP (Armed Forces minister) pretty impressive on Sky News.

    One to watch.

    It has been fascinating watching Tom Tugendhat on the news. A Lieutenant-Colonel with experience in both Iraq and Afghanistan - and then with the civilian administration in the latter. Notably shish-kebabs the Big Dog at every opportunity on his lack of comprehension of foreign affairs. A declared candidate for leader should a contest arise. And he continues to lead from the front, detailed criticism of the PM and our woeful position.

    I know that some people think Ukraine saves the Big Dog, that there can be no move against him now. But remember the facts - the PM is a bumbling incompetent cretin with no grasp for detail. Fucking up this crisis is almost as certain as the sun setting in the west later.

    So could Tugendhat rise from relative obscurity and be a real challenger when a vacancy does occur - or help force one?
    I am told he lacks the personal support of Tory MPs.
    Remoaner.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,934
    “When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn’t become a king. The palace becomes a circus.” ⁦@RSylvesterTimes⁩ profiles Boris Johnson in the magazine today.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/7964b540-933c-11ec-bcf4-9dde9b8243da?shareToken=f7b29b7bdf733215873a9d59a4042578
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,245
    Heathener said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If you run a government that is entirely built on lies like Putin, don't be surprised when it turns out your generals were lying to you when they said they could overrun Kyiv in 48 hours.

    Also you'll find it difficult to make progress if most of your soldiers have poor morale, which seems likely.
    It would be so interesting to know what they really think. Do the Russian military on the ground really believe in this?

    Mind you, at risk of doing a Godwin, plenty of Hitler's Generals knew he was bonkers, hated the man, but still went along with it.
    Hitler's generals mostly shared his world outlook. Staff officers were well aware of the huge logistical problems of sustaining an advance into the Soviet Union. The top brass basically shared Hitler's belief that the slavs were subhuman, and German racial superiority would carry the day,
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,460
    Kherson, South Ukraine - A video showing a large column of Russian combat engineers that got absolutely annihilated by Ukrainian defenders 🇺🇦.

    The Russian army is taking huge losses.


    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1497500029099118594
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,462

    Taz said:

    BA cancels all short haul flights

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60533275

    Tit for tat cyber attack after we blocked Aeroflot?
    No, just crap BA IT.
    Coincidence then?

    Righto....
  • Reports 27 countries are actively providing weapons to Ukraine

    Time for us to unite, stop sniping, and be proud of the response currently on its way from nations across the world

    I'm sorry BigG. We in the West have done next to nothing. There is good reason why we have done next to nothing we don't want Putin to escalate this fiasco to involve the EU and the UK.

    Clinton's biggest regret was he did nothing about the genocide in Rwanda. We are watching, not genocide, but the destruction of a nation. The upshot either way is thousands of innocents are slaughtered whilst we watch on.

    Our declarations "but Ukraine is not in NATO" are sops to ourselves.They are a sovereign nation invaded by an aggressor and we (the West) have sanctioned 70% of Russian banks. Huh, 70%?

    Now I don't want British troops involved, I don't want my children conscripted for a world war, but neither can I sit back with satisfaction and claim leaders representing me have done all they can on my behalf, they haven't. In some cases, their vested interests trump my horror.

    I don't know how to counter Putin, that is not my job. But neither, it seems, do those whose job it is to deal with Putin.

    I am not suggesting a party political or Remainer/ Leave bias here. Whoever they represent, Western leaders have been guilty of dereliction of duty for at least eight years and that includes Starmer and your beloved "Boris".
    When I was calling for us to act against Russia in 2014, 2016 (I think), 2018, etc, etc, where was your voice? Were you in the "Russia's ambitions are detrimental to the world; we need to act hard" camp or the "You're a warmonger risking WWIII" camp?

    Because actions then would have been a damned sight easier than they are now. And we still face a threat of WWIII.
    Yes they would, which is why I have cited eight years of inaction and dereliction of duty by Western leaders.

    And, don't you blame me. I was outraged that we in the West did nothing about a downed airliner. We begged for permission to recover our bodies. That single act was brushed under the carpet. That represents the West sitting on its hands while Putin toyed with us.

    I was with Elwood weeks ago when he demanded NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine. That is recorded here.
    I'm talking about calling for action over the last eight years. This could have been prevented. It should have been prevented. It was predicted.

    And yes, a Conservative / coalition government has been in place for that time. But remember Miliband's hideous backturn over the Syria vote? Remember Corbyn, Labour's leader, who pretended to be rather (ahem) anti-war?

    Putin has gambled that the west's weaknesses would prevent us from stopping his territorial ambitions. The UK's negligence played into it - but the blame lies all over the west. It was too hard to do, so it wasn't done.

    (I'd actually argue May did very well over Salisbury, although it could have been used as a catalyst for firmer actions.)
    I think Putin thinks the West is a wet lettuce.
    IanB2 said:

    There are quite a few videos of Russian tanks that have run out of fuel or been abandoned. It seems the have problem with logistics and morale.

    I have a colleague in my network who was a Royal Navy captain and really knows his onions.

    He's adamant that Russian forces aren't as strong as they look on paper because their raw material, training, and staff work is highly variable, whereas British forces are tip-top.

    Basically, his argument was that military effectiveness, just as in all other walks of life, comes down to people and organisational culture.
    Except that the British military tends to have a hugely inflated perception of its own comparative effectiveness. Cf what we were saying about the Americans when we went in to replace them in Basra, brutally exposed as hubris by subsequent events
    Yes, there was a bit of arrogance in there.

    He also said that there comes a point where numbers absolutely matter, and the British Army is now tokenistic.

    I'm afraid I think we now have to raise defence spending to the point where can deploy at least one fully armed heavy warfighting division on the continent, permanently. I suspect that will require us to expand the British army by 15-20,000 men back up to about 95-100k strong, and probably an extra £12-16bn per year in defence spending.

    But I think we have to do it.
This discussion has been closed.