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The outcast in Anchorage: A senate storm brews in Alaska – politicalbetting.com
The outcast in Anchorage: A senate storm brews in Alaska – politicalbetting.com
Nobody talks about it, but electoral reform is all the rage these days. Maine adopted AV (or, as they call it, Ranked Choice Voting) in 2018 for all statewide offices. The Tories are changing mayoral elections from SV to FPTP. And in Alaska an unusual system could have big implications for this year’s senate race.
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Kazakhstan, one of Russia's closest allies and a southern neighbor, is denying a request for its troops to join the offensive in Ukraine, officials say.
https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1497368313873133570
Second II-76 downed. That's 300-400 elite troops killed before they could kill. The sunflowers will grow high and be plentiful.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497386638749540353?s=20&t=zBuEeonIMPLYnc3_1pD6qw
https://twitter.com/ChaudharyParvez/status/1497386581157502977?s=20&t=zBuEeonIMPLYnc3_1pD6qw
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497381890386497543?s=20&t=iBwxQ_okg1wfcq6BzehNVA
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497392901029957632
If the Russians do not yet have air superiority (which they don't have), it raises serious questions about how well planned the Russian offensive is. They had the resources to have air superiority via destroying the grounded Ukrainian airforce in the first few minutes of the war.
Meanwhile the assault down 'Victory Avenue' in Kyiv has been repelled.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497394408618184705
Not going to plan.
I’m sorry Quincel, but you can’t make such a sweeping (and contentious) opening statement and then back in up with three teensy-weensy examples from minor English-speaking jurisdictions (Maine, England and Alaska). That is so parochial it is beyond words (English majors?! - guffaw - c’mon!)
There is a whole planet out there, speaking thousands of languages. If such a sweeping statement had any basis in reality then it would be easy to cite convincing global examples.
(Although, I do think you saying that two US states don't count as 'convincing examples' is rather harsh.)
I wish I could share more,but for now I can say it’s pretty obvious to many that something is off with #Putin
He has always been a killer,but his problem now is different & significant
It would be a mistake to assume this Putin would react the same way he would have 5 years ago
https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1497393912821915648
If you are aware of three *significant* examples worldwide of ongoing or recent reform then feel free to enlighten me.
I realise it’s only an intro, but I was disappointed by the insignificance and flimsinesses of the examples used to support your assertion. Far from “Global Britain”, Brexit seems to be drastically reducing horizons. Do we only see humans who look like and talk like us? Tragic if true.
Trump in Putin’s pocket was ok, cos Putin wasn’t insane back then, just a run-of-the-mill killer.
You can hear the fighting on the audio. And that audio is coming from a camera in central Kyiv.
But sometimes 1/5 shots don’t come home. What then? It is a very important question, but impossible to answer. Nobody wants to contemplate the obvious answer: nuclear war.
It seems an astonishing failure. But why? Did Ukraine somehow get just enough warning? Easy to imagine a few Ukraine-friendly folk within Russian organisations (not necessarily military) could cause havoc for the invaders.
Putin likely will achieve the capturing of Kyiv, but the wider objectives remain out of reach, remember thousands of UKR troops have been trained in counter-insurgency and urban warfare by the SAS/CIA [pointedly not traditional army unit]. Putin does not have the capital to 'pacify' Ukraine. And I agree with your conclusion of escalation until the logical endpoint.
We should not be surprised when we see people willing on nuclear annihilation. It is going to happen one day. It is inevitable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ayv7DmYbOg
The ground reporters are probably silent because the fighting is now close.
China is no surprise, with their ongoing genocide. UAE is just another nasty dictatorship, but with cash. But India? C’mon. That is extremely disappointing.
https://twitter.com/IdaTavakoli/status/1496975936159248384?s=20&t=PkUpHSGL8isSh-aDv1ATsQ
Their entire strategy for tonight was to have specialist groups infiltrate and destroy key targets, to be met by the main column of armour in the morning.
The armour has failed, question is how well the specialists did at their decapitation objectives. Even if Zelynskyy was killed (which I doubt from reports and the sudden disappearance of both UK SF I know over the past few days), any proof of it will only galvanise resistance.
As for Stuart's post, today the UAE/Indian ambassadors to the UK should be forced to make a very clear choice.
A former MP and investigative journalist has refused to divulge the sources of his information about the 1974 Birmingham pub bombings in a hearing at the Old Bailey.
Chris Mullin, 74, is challenging an application by West Midlands police to require him to disclose source material dating back to his investigation in 1985 and 1986.
Would a compromise in this case be for Mullin to say if he thought they were IRA bombs? If so, old news, but let us not shed too many tears for the friends of the IRA who were wrongly convicted.
If they weren’t IRA bombs, then let’s hear who perpetrated the crime.
⚡️ Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny: “The enemy has not achieved the previously set strategic goals. His strength is weakening. We are getting stronger every hour! The plan of action is simple: you see, you can - destroy! You can't - give us the location of the enemy!
https://twitter.com/StratCom_AFU/status/1497415342225776641
However the Russian air attacks move west...
Shocking losses for the VDV so far, who will have lost well over 500 between the airport and transpots.
However both live feeds of the main square have just gone down. Going to be a crucial few hours now. It is clear that the Russian armour has been beaten back, but the troops on foot not so much.
do not go to the balconies. Hide indoors, for example in the bathroom, and cover yourself with something that will prevent injury from bullet fragments. If you hear sirens ("Air Alarm" signal) - go to the nearest shelter immediately!" 2/2
https://twitter.com/zoyashef/status/1497427859971121153
⚡️Ukraine’s 101st Brigade destroys a column of Russian forces.
Two cars, two trucks with tanks and another tank were neutralized near the Beresteiska station on Kyiv’s left bank, Ukraine’s Armed Forces reports.
While I'm still young, my taxes in total have paid for a single NLAW, which is a price I'm happy to pay. Armour is getting mauled by our donations.
https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1497434355244978177
Russia's war against Ukraine, day three. Early morning here in Ukraine. Kyiv is standing. Enemy tanks were destroyed in the western part of the city. Sounds of gunfire and street fighting. President Zelensky is in the capital. Brave Ukrainian heroes continue to defend their land
Still reliable reports of plenty of street to street fighting against small groups of Russians.
https://twitter.com/zoyashef/status/1497427858519916549
"Ukrainian police just released alert for Kyiv residents via Telegram: "Active fighting is taking place on the streets of our city. Please stay calm and be as careful as possible! If you are in hiding - do not leave it now. If you are at home - do not go to the windows ..."
https://twitter.com/tweet_matveev/status/1497393053035810817
However, Putin isn't acting exactly sanely IMO.
But there's another point: we cannot let fear of his actions to stop us from doing the right thing. For as long as we fear him, he will win.
I've been continuously asking myself the question - would I fight or would I flee, when confronted with this? People in Ukraine are doing both. I don't think I would know until confronted with the choice.
It is an absolutely horrible decision, but there is no conclusion other than to do everything possible to fight Putin and bring him to justice for what he has done in Ukraine. I dislike the concept that there are 'lessons from history' or that 'history repeats itself', but he has created a situation where we are faced with Hitler 2. His 'resurrection of the Ancient Russian empire' is Anschluss/lebensraum 2 etc. All the provocation was done by him and those around him.
Frankly surprised Kyiv isn't taken yet. I hope they can maintain their defiance against the odds, and that the president manages to survive.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1497459563024445445
He’s going to make a great leader in exile or a martyr for the ages. Either way (and I very much hope the former) he’s won
On a more theoretical level, I have been thinking about this question continously because I have got close family who live in the Baltics. In fact, my son is a dual national and will be conscripted in to the army when he is older, so it is a real possibility that he will have to fight at some point in his lifetime.
Removing the extended family to England is not a good option, even though it is possible and we have the resources to do it. What sort of life is it to be removed from your homeland, whilst you let other people defend it and die in the process of doing so? And if much of Europe folds to a dictatorship, how safe are we in England?
These are just really difficult questions with no simple answer, but my instinctive answer is that I think we should be fighting and supporting everyone who is resisting this tyranny, in Russia and outside of it.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497460239196635137
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1497427971841404935
https://twitter.com/roscosmos/status/1497456827881172994
https://cdn.archiveddit.com/reddit/publicfreakout/t1h7k4.mp4
@ScottGorbach
Wow. Ukrainians wrecking Russian Motorized Infantry with Molotov cocktails at improvised roadblocks on the outskirts of Kyiv:"
https://twitter.com/ScottGorbach/status/1497424391117881347
Astonishing video, but surely the most modern tanks couldn't be so easily attacked? Maybe the Russians are using old-fashioned ones.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIp34wW3k90
For a nationwide roll, like President, they really should move away from a State by State counting mechanism too. The current system makes the votes of the majority of Amercian votes completely pointless with all the effort put in a small number of swing states. If the electoral college votes were split according to shares then every state would be worth campaiging for and winning without winning a majority of the votes would be much more difficult, encouraging parties to be less extreme and more consensual.
https://t.me/insiderUKR/21867
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497466638781800450
(Very interesting though.)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/60524666
Take Oleg Deripaska who owns 45% of the aluminium company EN+, which listed on the London Stock Exchange in 2017, raising $1.5bn (£1.1bn), AND CURRENTLY HAS FORMER CONSERVATIVE ENERGY MINISTER LORD BARKER AS ITS EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN.
Roman Abramovich has faced no sanctions in the UK.
It stinks. Any Conservative on here who tries to take the moral high ground has no leg to stand on. Sort your house out.
Thank you to everyone who has sent messages and likes. We are holding our own here, and much practical work is being done with our allies to try and shore up our defences. My friends are signed up to the Defence League. We are ready and determined if Putin wishes to try our strength.
All of us are truly moved by the incredible courage of the Ukrainian army and people in the face of this outrage. President Zhelinsky may have "had greatness thrust upon him", but his courage and the courage of his nation is undeniable.
By contrast Putin is facing the contempt and hatred of the entire civilised world. Across the planet they are facing diplomatic disaster and even in cyberspace, where previously their lies have sown confusion and fake news, they are stripped bare of any pretence. Russia is being shunned in all spheres, and the utter condemnation of this barbarism is becoming an earthquake that we ultimately hope will lead to regime change in Moscow. The diplomats may still pretend, but the truth is that this only ends with the end of Putin, and this is where the danger still lies.
Even Boris Johnson´s political opponents concede that he has done much good work and President Macron has also been effective and clear. Now we can say that the West is more united than it has been in generations and that is a comfort to us. We have discovered that when the chips are down we do have more that unites us than divides us. Of course, it is worth remembering that many of our divisions and the bitterness involved, have been directed and created in Moscow, like the cyber attacks we now see.
In a way, the hybrid World War Three has been going on for years.
The difference is that now we know it and we know who our enemy really is.
It is a crucial moment to close the long-standing discussion once and for all and decide on Ukraine's membership in the #EU. Discussed with @eucopresident further effective assistance and the heroic struggle of Ukrainians for their free future.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1497469956686028804
This guy is somethig else. We must make sure he gets it.
One to watch.
That will have infuriated and possibly bewildered Putin.
India and UAE also surprising. India less so because it has huge trade links with Russia, including arms and it had threatened to set up a new banking system to by-pass SWIFT if Russia was suspended from it.
The UAE was more surprising and may revolve around concerns that Russia will ally with Iran.
Also, if the reports are true that Kyiv is silent this morning, that surely is very odd? There was clearly intense fighting overnight, within suburbs of the city. Have the Russian generals declared a de facto ceasefire, while they work out what the hell to do next? Or do they command an army of vampires, that can only fight in the dark?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/60528276
We knock the BBC but this is them at their very best
A pause isn't necessarily good news...
@ZelenskyyUa
A new day on the diplomatic frontline began with a conversation with
@EmmanuelMacron
. Weapons and equipment from our partners are on the way to Ukraine. The anti-war coalition is working!"
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1497456125431717888
I fear he won't be and that this could end swiftly.
Would Russia have committed their best forces first? We have to remember that they are keeping quite a bit back at the moment. I was surprised to see reports that Kazakhstan have refused to send troops to Russia's aid. I suppose they have enough problems of their own.
Also these failed Special Ops attempts - because Putin wants a 'clean' victory or is this some kind of weird showing off as one analyst is saying.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497474129393446914
I know that some people think Ukraine saves the Big Dog, that there can be no move against him now. But remember the facts - the PM is a bumbling incompetent cretin with no grasp for detail. Fucking up this crisis is almost as certain as the sun setting in the west later.
So could Tugendhat rise from relative obscurity and be a real challenger when a vacancy does occur - or help force one?
My take is this. I think if Russia stumbles in Ukraine and Putin is seen to be given a bloody nose then Boris comes out looking good.
If Russia crushes Ukraine we all look crap and that reflects badly on Boris too. The west will have failed.
But conflicts are really hard to call. At the outset of the Falklands there was very little appetite for our involvement and Margaret Thatcher was unpopular. As the Task Force set sail so the tabloids got going and soon jingoism flowed. The year after we re-took the islands she won a thumping majority, albeit up against an opponent who was almost as left-wing as Jeremy Corbyn.
But if Big Dog goes there does seem to be something in the idea of a non-Cabinet MP coming to the fore.
I really like Penny Mordaunt. Another with a military background.
That has yet to be determined. Certainly some of the government's early actions - such as giving the Ukrainians NLAWs - were prompt and potentially very useful to Ukrainian forces. And meaningful sanctions are not proving as easy as some suppose for any country.
As with Covid, how the government handled the crisis will only be determined later. Although I fear you will already have made up your mind ...