..I think this whole exercise was Putin becoming tone death to everything and everyone around him. I can’t see how Ukraine just surrenders and accepts a puppet government
As horrific as it might be, it’s perfectly possible for Putin to repress the Ukrainians for a prolonged period of time. It’ll be expensive, from an outside perspective, rather pointless and ultimately futile, but that doesn’t mean he won’t try. And for a period of time, succeed.
There’s also a proportion of the Ukrainian population who are ambivilant about Putin/Russia. For now. They are useful to Russia.
As I said last night, unfortunately, I think Putin basically wins this rather pointless war.
#Breaking Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said he has extended a flight ban meaning “no Russian private jet can fly in UK airspace, or touchdown – effective immediately” https://twitter.com/PA/status/1497312908228841476/photo/1
As I posted this morning - go after the private jets registered under companies etc. demand to know from registries who the Ultimate Beneficial Owner is and ban those planes because the Russians who need targeting don’t register their jets in Russia.
How can we help this actually happen?
Along these lines from this morning.
They shouldn’t just restrict to Russian registered planes.
For example the Isle of Man has a large aircraft registry for private jets. The relevant UK minister should be on the phone to the Manx govt now demanding a list of all planes registered there which are owned by an individual or entity controlled by or individually Russian nationals.
This list should then be added to planes that are not allowed in UK airspace, the list should be shared with the US and EU and they should also stop them.
This should be the same for any territory which has a registry.
Kick the oligarchs and SHNW Russian nationals where it hurts - remove their toys, constrain their freedom. Make it clear they are travelling Ryanair to the south of France for this summer season.
The more wealthy Russian nationals who feel the squeeze will increase pressure on Putin as they will be complaining to the man up the line that they cannot use their cash despite what they had to hand over to Putin and eventually the higher ups will step in.
It is correct on Russian doctrine but without knowing all the objectives and overall strategy its hard to agree completely. Two things look clear.
1. Try to hit the capital and topple the government 2. Try to destroy the heaviest concentration (and probably the best of) of the Ukrainian military which is based in the East of the country via the South North and North South line of attacks.
The rest though is a bit of a mystery like the sizeable group of forces sitting in the West of Belarus and other second echelon forces not yet committed which often happens during breakout after the crack is found.
Where the thread is more speculative is the idea that the Ukrainians are attacking the rear (and indeed possibly aiming to pocket the most the advanced Russian forces). Viable as it may be, we just haven't seen much actual evidence of that approach in action as yet. In fact it might be a bit early in the day for it.
I have been in a deep black dog depression about all this the last 48 hours. Terrible times. But I am starting to feel the tiny glimmer of hope. Putin may have fucked up here and his reign is nearer the end than we thought.
I also think that Putin his miscalculated, but unfortunately he's also an unhinged fascist megalomaniac with an obsession with imperial conquest and an arsenal of many thousands of nuclear warheads. There is a material risk that we're all going to end up dead within the next few months.
I've been thinking and occasionally saying this from the outset. I don't like to keep on about it in case it's just wishful thinking but I can'r resist the thought that he may be bringing about his own downfall and that of the corrupt regime he's been leading for the past twenty years.
#Breaking Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said he has extended a flight ban meaning “no Russian private jet can fly in UK airspace, or touchdown – effective immediately” https://twitter.com/PA/status/1497312908228841476/photo/1
As I posted this morning - go after the private jets registered under companies etc. demand to know from registries who the Ultimate Beneficial Owner is and ban those planes because the Russians who need targeting don’t register their jets in Russia.
How can we help this actually happen?
Along these lines from this morning.
They shouldn’t just restrict to Russian registered planes.
For example the Isle of Man has a large aircraft registry for private jets. The relevant UK minister should be on the phone to the Manx govt now demanding a list of all planes registered there which are owned by an individual or entity controlled by or individually Russian nationals.
This list should then be added to planes that are not allowed in UK airspace, the list should be shared with the US and EU and they should also stop them.
This should be the same for any territory which has a registry.
Kick the oligarchs and SHNW Russian nationals where it hurts - remove their toys, constrain their freedom. Make it clear they are travelling Ryanair to the south of France for this summer season.
The more wealthy Russian nationals who feel the squeeze will increase pressure on Putin as they will be complaining to the man up the line that they cannot use their cash despite what they had to hand over to Putin and eventually the higher ups will step in.
Have you written to your MP or others recommending such a thing?
It seems to me that you'd have pretty universal support here on PB.
I spent the last few hours in conference where it was discussed that keeping Russia in SWIFT may be the worst thing for Russia.
Remaining in SWIFT allows capital flight out of the CCCP, sorry Russia.
14.51 today by yours truly:
"Thinking about the SWIFT issue. Are we more effective by banning Russia from using it, or by keeping them in and encouraging capital flight from the Russian economy?"
Interesting.
Just shows that any news talking point is not always as obvious as the first thoughts are. Nor as obvious as the immediate reaction down at the Dog and Duck.
And another reason why knee-jerk reactions of "this is too weak!" may be wide of the mark. Some effective measures are non-obvious and poorly visible, whilst some ineffective measures may be 'obvious' and do bugger all. To complicate matters, a measure made unilaterally immediately may have less or more effect than one done multilaterally but delayed.
Is there any evidence of a capital flight from Russia? And indeed what practical effect would one have?
#Breaking Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said he has extended a flight ban meaning “no Russian private jet can fly in UK airspace, or touchdown – effective immediately” https://twitter.com/PA/status/1497312908228841476/photo/1
How many of them are actually Registered in Russia?
#Breaking Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said he has extended a flight ban meaning “no Russian private jet can fly in UK airspace, or touchdown – effective immediately” https://twitter.com/PA/status/1497312908228841476/photo/1
As I posted this morning - go after the private jets registered under companies etc. demand to know from registries who the Ultimate Beneficial Owner is and ban those planes because the Russians who need targeting don’t register their jets in Russia.
How can we help this actually happen?
Along these lines from this morning.
They shouldn’t just restrict to Russian registered planes.
For example the Isle of Man has a large aircraft registry for private jets. The relevant UK minister should be on the phone to the Manx govt now demanding a list of all planes registered there which are owned by an individual or entity controlled by or individually Russian nationals.
This list should then be added to planes that are not allowed in UK airspace, the list should be shared with the US and EU and they should also stop them.
This should be the same for any territory which has a registry.
Kick the oligarchs and SHNW Russian nationals where it hurts - remove their toys, constrain their freedom. Make it clear they are travelling Ryanair to the south of France for this summer season.
The more wealthy Russian nationals who feel the squeeze will increase pressure on Putin as they will be complaining to the man up the line that they cannot use their cash despite what they had to hand over to Putin and eventually the higher ups will step in.
Have you written to your MP or others recommending such a thing?
It seems to me that you'd have pretty universal support here on PB.
I don’t have an MP - I am actually a citizen of nowhere.
#Breaking Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said he has extended a flight ban meaning “no Russian private jet can fly in UK airspace, or touchdown – effective immediately” https://twitter.com/PA/status/1497312908228841476/photo/1
As I posted this morning - go after the private jets registered under companies etc. demand to know from registries who the Ultimate Beneficial Owner is and ban those planes because the Russians who need targeting don’t register their jets in Russia.
Aren't most trips by private jets done by charter?
Shame. I think he is actually a very talented actor.
He is.
I thought, initially. This was performance art (like when Joaquin Phoenix became a rapper) but it isn’t. SadLy.
At first he said some dumb things, but not always. Could have been in interesting commentator, treading a line. Instead he seems to have gone the route of the Piers Corbyns of the world and just really enjoys spouting whatever nonsense gets a cheer from certain sections of society, and thrown himself into it whole hog.
I don't think that tweet makes the critical point you seem to think it does.
I've been vocal in dislike of Boris, including that the current situation should not mean he sticks around - quite the opposite in fact.
But that tweet to me shows that he could see things are serious and for once cut out the showmanship and bluster, and made as reasonable a pledge as he could make. NOT seeking to embody the spirit of Churchill in such a moment or indulge in grandiose verbosity would be one of the more professional, serious things Boris will have done as PM.
Zelensky doesn't need a faux-Churchill, he needs help. Boris cannot really give him much, but within the bounds of diplomatic support he's offered what he can.
#Breaking Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said he has extended a flight ban meaning “no Russian private jet can fly in UK airspace, or touchdown – effective immediately” https://twitter.com/PA/status/1497312908228841476/photo/1
As I posted this morning - go after the private jets registered under companies etc. demand to know from registries who the Ultimate Beneficial Owner is and ban those planes because the Russians who need targeting don’t register their jets in Russia.
Aren't most trips by private jets done by charter?
Most are done by charter but not the trips by the people you need to target, the people who prop up the Putin system. Their own jets are owned by companies and trusts and foundations in various jurisdictions because it works for tax but also they don’t want people being able to check the registration number on the plane and say “oh look, that’s that lovely Roman Abramovich’s plane just landed here in Malta/Cyprus/Geneva/Tel Avis…..
They don’t want other people using their planes when they are at that level.
If you'd told me 48 hours ago that there would be even a question about Russia winning this War.
It's the images of every man/woman/babushka in Kyiv being handed a kalashnikov that changed my view.
Assuming that Putin's plan was to send special forces into the city within a day or two, decapitate the government, and force capitulation, in that respect it looks as if he's already failed. It's clear that the Ukrainians are going to fight street by street, block by block, and make the Russians pay for every inch with blood.
The longer this goes on, the more the bodies will start piling up, and the more opposition he will face internally.
So he has two options, either escalate this into a war where he starts indiscriminately shooting, bombing and murdering civilians (making him even less popular at home and abroad) or find a way to back down while saving face. If he has any sense at all, he will back down by, say, retreating to the disputed regions, saying "these are ours now" and declaring "mission accomplished" even if it is a blatant lie.
Unfortunately I do not think we are dealing with a rational man in Putin, so anything could happen, including further escalation.
If you'd told me 48 hours ago that there would be even a question about Russia winning this War.
Depends what winning is considered to be, doesn't it
Presumably it'd be hard for Russia to not come out ahead in terms of gained territory etc, given the disparities, but the ambition shown by the initial assaults would suggest limited gains (or failure to exact regime change etc) would be a failure?
I don't that that tweet makes the critical point you seem to think it does.
I've been vocal in dislike of Boris, including that the current situation should not mean he sticks around - quite the opposite in fact.
But that tweet to me shows that he could see things are serious and for once cut out the showmanship and bluster, and made as reasonable a pledge as he could make. NOT seeking to embody the spirit of Churchill in such a moment or indulge in grandiose verbosity would be one of the more professional, serious things Boris will have done as PM.
Zelensky doesn't need a faux-Churchill, he needs help. Boris cannot really give him much, but within the bounds of diplomatic support he's offered what he can.
I doubt Zelensky wanted to hear funny stories about trips to Peppa Pig world....or false promises about the British coming to fight the Russian on the beaches.
Ultimately Boris reaction will be judged by what kit they get to the Ukrainians and how effective sanctions are.
russia saying relations with west reaching point of no return from telegraph
Russia says relations with West nearing 'point of no return' Moscow says its relations with the West were close to a "point of no return" after several countries imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
"We have reached the line after which the point of no return begins," Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Russian television.
russia saying relations with west reaching point of no return from telegraph
Russia says relations with West nearing 'point of no return' Moscow says its relations with the West were close to a "point of no return" after several countries imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
"We have reached the line after which the point of no return begins," Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Russian television.
If only we could identify how things had come to that point.
#Breaking Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said he has extended a flight ban meaning “no Russian private jet can fly in UK airspace, or touchdown – effective immediately” https://twitter.com/PA/status/1497312908228841476/photo/1
As I posted this morning - go after the private jets registered under companies etc. demand to know from registries who the Ultimate Beneficial Owner is and ban those planes because the Russians who need targeting don’t register their jets in Russia.
How can we help this actually happen?
Along these lines from this morning.
They shouldn’t just restrict to Russian registered planes.
For example the Isle of Man has a large aircraft registry for private jets. The relevant UK minister should be on the phone to the Manx govt now demanding a list of all planes registered there which are owned by an individual or entity controlled by or individually Russian nationals.
This list should then be added to planes that are not allowed in UK airspace, the list should be shared with the US and EU and they should also stop them.
This should be the same for any territory which has a registry.
Kick the oligarchs and SHNW Russian nationals where it hurts - remove their toys, constrain their freedom. Make it clear they are travelling Ryanair to the south of France for this summer season.
The more wealthy Russian nationals who feel the squeeze will increase pressure on Putin as they will be complaining to the man up the line that they cannot use their cash despite what they had to hand over to Putin and eventually the higher ups will step in.
Have you written to your MP or others recommending such a thing?
It seems to me that you'd have pretty universal support here on PB.
I don’t have an MP - I am actually a citizen of nowhere.
Draft your letter. Assuming there's nothing daft I'll send it under my name. I would like to have your name on it too no matter your status. I'd also like to have any and all PBers that agree too. Lawyers, for once, especially welcome.
If you'd told me 48 hours ago that there would be even a question about Russia winning this War.
It's the images of every man/woman/babushka in Kyiv being handed a kalashnikov that changed my view.
Assuming that Putin's plan was to send special forces into the city within a day or two, decapitate the government, and force capitulation, in that respect it looks as if he's already failed. It's clear that the Ukrainians are going to fight street by street, block by block, and make the Russians pay for every inch with blood.
The longer this goes on, the more the bodies will start piling up, and the more opposition he will face internally.
So he has two options, either escalate this into a war where he starts indiscriminately shooting, bombing and murdering civilians (making him even less popular at home and abroad) or find a way to back down while saving face. If he has any sense at all, he will back down by, say, retreating to the disputed regions, saying "these are ours now" and declaring "mission accomplished" even if it is a blatant lie.
Unfortunately I do not think we are dealing with a rational man in Putin, so anything could happen, including further escalation.
Considering the Wests short attention span, if Putin can wrap this up by next week this will all be forgotten by mid-March when we can go back to claiming the world's biggest threat is climate change and the patriarchy. Meanwhile the CCP will make plans for Taiwan. Well why wouldn't they?
Vladimir Putin is the patriarchy.
We all know lesbians are the greatest enemy of the patriarchy,
We should therefore send our lesbians in against Russia.
To prove they are the best, they will send in their best lesbians against ours.
And whilst their male troops are watching the resultant videos, we shall send in the asexuals!
Yes, LGBT will save civilised society!
(runs for cover.)
I've seen a tweet today from the NATO LGBT+ network proclaiming solidarity with Ukraine, with a NATO compass rose on a rainbow flag background.
russia saying relations with west reaching point of no return from telegraph
Russia says relations with West nearing 'point of no return' Moscow says its relations with the West were close to a "point of no return" after several countries imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
"We have reached the line after which the point of no return begins," Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Russian television.
If only we could identify how things had come to that point.
What does it even mean? What are they expecting as a response?
It can either be oh dear or Russian military shit go fuck yourselves.
russia saying relations with west reaching point of no return from telegraph
Russia says relations with West nearing 'point of no return' Moscow says its relations with the West were close to a "point of no return" after several countries imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
"We have reached the line after which the point of no return begins," Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Russian television.
Hopefully she are right. The West should already be well past the point of no return as far as their relationship with Russia is concerned. As long as Putin and his cronies stay in power Russia should be considered a pariah state.
21:33 BREAKING Zelensky - Ukraine ready to discuss ceasefire A spokesman for Ukrainian President Zelensky has just said the country is prepared to hold ceasefire and peace talks with Russia immediately.
He said Russian and Ukrainian officials are currently discussing a time and place for talks to be held.
RT's editor in chief has just tweeted: "If you now feel ashamed to be Russian, don't worry, you're not Russian."
The fact that she's saying that just shows how widespread the feeling is. The Kremlin has made a major miscalculation.
Yes. This is shameful
Free democracies do not attack each other. That's how it works. Russian is meant to be democratic, likewise Ukraine. How much of this is hypocritical cant? - lots - but nonetheless it matters. It is a sign of First World, developed status, and an awful lot of richer Russians feel they are, or should be, part of this advanced world. Better than the heathens
Putin's aggression reduces them to the status of Genghis Khan's Mongols. Or Hitler. The Russian upper classes will not like this one bit. He has rendered them unclubbable
There are one or two seeds of hope: 1) If millions of younger Russians turn out on real Stop the War demos, it will be difficult to silence them without going the full Tiananmen on them 2) Parris may be right when he says the west should believe their own rhetoric about invading being a huge mistake 3) However many Ukrainians leave (and who can blame them) 90%+ will stay, nearly all of whom won't be killed and will live to work for a better day 4) This is the first modern war directly touching the interests of the world we ordinary UK people interact with daily. (In October 2021 Lidl announced plans to expand in Ukraine. Ukrainian HGV drivers turn up on the M6. It's as quotidien as that.) And the first war in our patch in the social media and internet age. In terms of hearts and minds Putin can't win.
The pictures of people in Ukraine are very familiar. They look like us, they wear similar clothes, drive similar cars etc. It could be any European country. Everyday life quickly descending in to a Ballardian nightmare, all recorded on smartphones. Dead people on the street, apartment buildings blown up, people hiding in subway stations.
And this is happening because of an unprovoked assault by Russia, who are also deeply hostile to us.
Hopefully it makes an impression on people. It has deeply affected me.
The pictures of people in Ukraine are very familiar. They look like us, they wear similar clothes, drive similar cars etc. It could be any European country. Everyday life quickly descending in to a Ballardian nightmare, all recorded on smartphones. Dead people on the street, apartment buildings blown up, people hiding in subway stations.
And this is happening because of an unprovoked assault by Russia, who are also deeply hostile to us.
Hopefully it makes an impression on people. It has deeply affected me.
If you'd told me 48 hours ago that there would be even a question about Russia winning this War.
Depends what winning is considered to be, doesn't it
Presumably it'd be hard for Russia to not come out ahead in terms of gained territory etc, given the disparities, but the ambition shown by the initial assaults would suggest limited gains (or failure to exact regime change etc) would be a failure?
But the 'disputed' territory is held by Russia already. Surely everywhere else would face massive resistance?
If you'd told me 48 hours ago that there would be even a question about Russia winning this War.
It's the images of every man/woman/babushka in Kyiv being handed a kalashnikov that changed my view.
Assuming that Putin's plan was to send special forces into the city within a day or two, decapitate the government, and force capitulation, in that respect it looks as if he's already failed. It's clear that the Ukrainians are going to fight street by street, block by block, and make the Russians pay for every inch with blood.
The longer this goes on, the more the bodies will start piling up, and the more opposition he will face internally.
So he has two options, either escalate this into a war where he starts indiscriminately shooting, bombing and murdering civilians (making him even less popular at home and abroad) or find a way to back down while saving face. If he has any sense at all, he will back down by, say, retreating to the disputed regions, saying "these are ours now" and declaring "mission accomplished" even if it is a blatant lie.
Unfortunately I do not think we are dealing with a rational man in Putin, so anything could happen, including further escalation.
well nato has been arming the ukrainians
Good. I approve of this use of my tax dollar.
You a net contributor of taxes in a nato member state? If yes, rejoice.
21:33 BREAKING Zelensky - Ukraine ready to discuss ceasefire A spokesman for Ukrainian President Zelensky has just said the country is prepared to hold ceasefire and peace talks with Russia immediately.
He said Russian and Ukrainian officials are currently discussing a time and place for talks to be held.
Interesting development, given the initial demand of surrendering earlier. Hopefully a sign the Russians are looking for a way to save face, even if that requires some hefty concessions from Ukraine.
Of course, ceasefires are often agreed then immediately breached.
russia saying relations with west reaching point of no return from telegraph
Russia says relations with West nearing 'point of no return' Moscow says its relations with the West were close to a "point of no return" after several countries imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
"We have reached the line after which the point of no return begins," Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Russian television.
If only we could identify how things had come to that point.
What does it even mean? What are they expecting as a response?
It can either be oh dear or Russian military shit go fuck yourselves.
Zakhorova is a known antisemitic nutter. I am shocked that this poster would quote her.
21:33 BREAKING Zelensky - Ukraine ready to discuss ceasefire A spokesman for Ukrainian President Zelensky has just said the country is prepared to hold ceasefire and peace talks with Russia immediately.
He said Russian and Ukrainian officials are currently discussing a time and place for talks to be held.
21:41 Ukraine denies reports it rebuffed offer of peace talks Ukraine has denied reports that it rebuffed a Russian offer to explore peace talks.
The Ukrainian president's spokesman, Serhiy Nykyforov, said on Facebook: "I have to deny statements that we have refused to hold talks.
"Ukraine was and remains ready to talk about the end to fighting and about peace. This is our unchanged position.
"We agreed to the offer by the Russian president. Right at this moment, the sides are consulting on the place and time of holding the negotiating process.
"The sooner the talks begin, the more chances there will be to restore normal life."
If you'd told me 48 hours ago that there would be even a question about Russia winning this War.
Depends what winning is considered to be, doesn't it
Presumably it'd be hard for Russia to not come out ahead in terms of gained territory etc, given the disparities, but the ambition shown by the initial assaults would suggest limited gains (or failure to exact regime change etc) would be a failure?
But the 'disputed' territory is held by Russia already. Surely everywhere else would face massive resistance?
The area claimed by the 'independent' republics was not entirely held by them. I'd assumed if a limited goal was intended it was to expand that area so that the entire areas claimed by them would be under their control. Even if that was all they managed, it would still be a gain.
russia saying relations with west reaching point of no return from telegraph
Russia says relations with West nearing 'point of no return' Moscow says its relations with the West were close to a "point of no return" after several countries imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
"We have reached the line after which the point of no return begins," Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Russian television.
That happened aproximately 2 days ago, when Russian troops moved into Ukraine.
Another nightmare day in Tallinn. Fear and defiance in equal measure, but few of us sleep well.
The brutal threats to Finland this morning were point blank a threat of war, and it really feels like the Kremlin has gone insane and in its death spiral is determined to take as many people out as it can.
There will be another demonstration tomorrow to protest the Russian attack, so many came to the Embassy yesterday that the road was blocked solid. Tomorrow they will hold it in Freedom Square.
People are stoic and the feeling is that if the attack on the Suwalki gap comes, then at least NATO can use its military forces directly, and if we are attacked then de facto Finalnd and Sweden and also what is left of Ukraine are part of NATO and we can directly attack the Russian forces there too.
Yet as always the risk of the use of nuclear weapons remains a constant danger.
In this nightmarish fever dream the only reality is that the Kremlin is in the hands of evil, and quite possibly insane evil.
I guess we are learning that the old Polish slogan "Za naszą i waszą wolność", "for your freedom and for ours" is even more true than we knew. Freedom is indivisible and if you stop calling out tyranny, sooner or later, tyranny will come calling for you.
We are sending as much equipment to Ukraine as we can spare, but we are also conscious that we may be needing it ourselves quite soon.
If you'd told me 48 hours ago that there would be even a question about Russia winning this War.
Depends what winning is considered to be, doesn't it
Presumably it'd be hard for Russia to not come out ahead in terms of gained territory etc, given the disparities, but the ambition shown by the initial assaults would suggest limited gains (or failure to exact regime change etc) would be a failure?
But the 'disputed' territory is held by Russia already. Surely everywhere else would face massive resistance?
The area claimed by the 'independent' republics was not entirely held by them. I'd assumed if a limited goal was intended it was to expand that area so that the entire areas claimed by them would be under their control. Even if that was all they managed, it would still be a gain.
The "disputed territory" is the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. The Republics only control about a third of this. So obtaining the whole oblasts would be a significant gain and one that would not be countenanced by Ukraine. It's not just a few square km.
russia saying relations with west reaching point of no return from telegraph
Russia says relations with West nearing 'point of no return' Moscow says its relations with the West were close to a "point of no return" after several countries imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
"We have reached the line after which the point of no return begins," Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Russian television.
If only we could identify how things had come to that point.
What does it even mean? What are they expecting as a response?
It can either be oh dear or Russian military shit go fuck yourselves.
Zakhorova is a known antisemitic nutter. I am shocked that this poster would quote her.
This lighting up buildings in Ukrainian colours is frankly insulting. What virtue signalling crap
It now the defacto 21st Century response, along with update your social media account with a flag whenever anything bad happens.
Honestly, so long as it is not a constant thing, I think signalling virtue via your social media account is not that aggravating, everyone is all just commenting and signalling in some way anyway. But signalling it via some light show on a building? It's overdone and lame.
If you'd told me 48 hours ago that there would be even a question about Russia winning this War.
Depends what winning is considered to be, doesn't it
Presumably it'd be hard for Russia to not come out ahead in terms of gained territory etc, given the disparities, but the ambition shown by the initial assaults would suggest limited gains (or failure to exact regime change etc) would be a failure?
But the 'disputed' territory is held by Russia already. Surely everywhere else would face massive resistance?
The area claimed by the 'independent' republics was not entirely held by them. I'd assumed if a limited goal was intended it was to expand that area so that the entire areas claimed by them would be under their control. Even if that was all they managed, it would still be a gain.
If you'd told me 48 hours ago that there would be even a question about Russia winning this War.
Depends what winning is considered to be, doesn't it
Presumably it'd be hard for Russia to not come out ahead in terms of gained territory etc, given the disparities, but the ambition shown by the initial assaults would suggest limited gains (or failure to exact regime change etc) would be a failure?
But the 'disputed' territory is held by Russia already. Surely everywhere else would face massive resistance?
The area claimed by the 'independent' republics was not entirely held by them. I'd assumed if a limited goal was intended it was to expand that area so that the entire areas claimed by them would be under their control. Even if that was all they managed, it would still be a gain.
The "disputed territory" is the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. The Republics only control about a third of this. So obtaining the whole oblasts would be a significant gain and one that would not be countenanced by Ukraine. It's not just a few square km.
I'm sure it wouldn't be countenanced by them, but given the scale of what Putin has launched he'd probably be disappointed if that was all he ended up with, even though it wouldn't be insignificant.
If you'd told me 48 hours ago that there would be even a question about Russia winning this War.
Depends what winning is considered to be, doesn't it
Presumably it'd be hard for Russia to not come out ahead in terms of gained territory etc, given the disparities, but the ambition shown by the initial assaults would suggest limited gains (or failure to exact regime change etc) would be a failure?
But the 'disputed' territory is held by Russia already. Surely everywhere else would face massive resistance?
The area claimed by the 'independent' republics was not entirely held by them. I'd assumed if a limited goal was intended it was to expand that area so that the entire areas claimed by them would be under their control. Even if that was all they managed, it would still be a gain.
Not much of one. Considering what has been lost.
Russia has lost all credibility in the civilised world. I really don't know where it goes from here.
21:33 BREAKING Zelensky - Ukraine ready to discuss ceasefire A spokesman for Ukrainian President Zelensky has just said the country is prepared to hold ceasefire and peace talks with Russia immediately.
He said Russian and Ukrainian officials are currently discussing a time and place for talks to be held.
Interesting development, given the initial demand of surrendering earlier. Hopefully a sign the Russians are looking for a way to save face, even if that requires some hefty concessions from Ukraine.
Of course, ceasefires are often agreed then immediately breached.
After the sacrifice of those Ukrainian soldiers on Snake Island, with their "Fuck you, Russian warship" riposte, I can't really see Zelensky giving Putin very much at all. The die well and truly cast now. You can't rewrite something which already has attained a Homeric legendary status.
And then, if the war continues, what is Vlad to do with Zelensky if he remains in Kiev and refuses to flee? Kill him? Imprison him in the Gulag? Another mythic figure.
This lighting up buildings in Ukrainian colours is frankly insulting. What virtue signalling crap
It now the defacto 21st Century response, along with update your social media account with a flag whenever anything bad happens.
Honestly, so long as it is not a constant thing, I think signalling virtue via your social media account is not that aggravating, everyone is all just commenting and signalling in some way anyway. But signalling it via some light show on a building? It's overdone and lame.
Far too many it literally is a constant thing now on their social media, just a different one every week.
If you'd told me 48 hours ago that there would be even a question about Russia winning this War.
Depends what winning is considered to be, doesn't it
Presumably it'd be hard for Russia to not come out ahead in terms of gained territory etc, given the disparities, but the ambition shown by the initial assaults would suggest limited gains (or failure to exact regime change etc) would be a failure?
But the 'disputed' territory is held by Russia already. Surely everywhere else would face massive resistance?
The area claimed by the 'independent' republics was not entirely held by them. I'd assumed if a limited goal was intended it was to expand that area so that the entire areas claimed by them would be under their control. Even if that was all they managed, it would still be a gain.
Not much of one. Considering what has been lost.
Russia has lost all credibility in the civilised world. I really don't know where it goes from here.
This lighting up buildings in Ukrainian colours is frankly insulting. What virtue signalling crap
It now the defacto 21st Century response, along with update your social media account with a flag whenever anything bad happens.
Honestly, so long as it is not a constant thing, I think signalling virtue via your social media account is not that aggravating, everyone is all just commenting and signalling in some way anyway. But signalling it via some light show on a building? It's overdone and lame.
It can be and often is. Generally it is harmless though and may sometimes be helpful.
Apparently the Irish roughed up the Russian Ambassador earlier today. Now that's the kind of virtue signalling I could go for.
This lighting up buildings in Ukrainian colours is frankly insulting. What virtue signalling crap
It now the defacto 21st Century response, along with update your social media account with a flag whenever anything bad happens.
Honestly, so long as it is not a constant thing, I think signalling virtue via your social media account is not that aggravating, everyone is all just commenting and signalling in some way anyway. But signalling it via some light show on a building? It's overdone and lame.
Far too many it literally is a constant thing now on their social media, just a different one every week.
Could be a good game - pick some obscure flags, and when someone looks them up and asks what you've got it up for affect some shocked condescension 'If you have to ask, you're part of the problem' and see how many fellow travellers pretend to agree with the campaign you are showing fake solidarity with.
Wonder why the Russians might be discussing cease fire?
Ukrainian MOD reports that the Russian advance near Konotop is running into supply problems, Russian troops are having to forage for fuel.
Asks Ukrainians to sabotage any Russian fuel with sugar.
"Tankists walk with canisters and try to buy fuel. Soldiers of the occupation forces demand food from the local population. Cases of looting of trade institutions on the side of Russian occupiers have been recorded.".
This lighting up buildings in Ukrainian colours is frankly insulting. What virtue signalling crap
It now the defacto 21st Century response, along with update your social media account with a flag whenever anything bad happens.
Honestly, so long as it is not a constant thing, I think signalling virtue via your social media account is not that aggravating, everyone is all just commenting and signalling in some way anyway. But signalling it via some light show on a building? It's overdone and lame.
It can be and often is. Generally it is harmless though and may sometimes be helpful.
Apparently the Irish roughed up the Russian Ambassador earlier today. Now that's the kind of virtue signalling I could go for.
I'm fine with hassle, though not rough up. Wouldn't want to give a pretext for ambassadors in their areas to be roughed up.
If you'd told me 48 hours ago that there would be even a question about Russia winning this War.
Depends what winning is considered to be, doesn't it
Presumably it'd be hard for Russia to not come out ahead in terms of gained territory etc, given the disparities, but the ambition shown by the initial assaults would suggest limited gains (or failure to exact regime change etc) would be a failure?
But the 'disputed' territory is held by Russia already. Surely everywhere else would face massive resistance?
The area claimed by the 'independent' republics was not entirely held by them. I'd assumed if a limited goal was intended it was to expand that area so that the entire areas claimed by them would be under their control. Even if that was all they managed, it would still be a gain.
Not much of one. Considering what has been lost.
Russia has lost all credibility in the civilised world. I really don't know where it goes from here.
Given they have shot down passenger plane, poisioned innocents on the streets of the UK, knocked off upteem inconvenient individuals, locked up the main opposition figure for no reason (after posioning him), conducted state sponsored drug cheats across sport etc etc etc, not sure they had much credibility to lose.
It will be interesting to see how robust Australia is - Qantas overflies Russia on its direct Darwin-London flights - and reopening the Perth - London route will be a problem while WA has tough COVID restrictions
This lighting up buildings in Ukrainian colours is frankly insulting. What virtue signalling crap
It now the defacto 21st Century response, along with update your social media account with a flag whenever anything bad happens.
Honestly, so long as it is not a constant thing, I think signalling virtue via your social media account is not that aggravating, everyone is all just commenting and signalling in some way anyway. But signalling it via some light show on a building? It's overdone and lame.
"⚡️BREAKING: Kyiv home guard, the 112th Territorial Defense Brigade, now operate British-provided NLAWs. Welcome to hell, motherfuckers."
It's pretty notable how much Russia has been unwilling/unable to make headway into urban areas. If they do it is going to be horrifically bloody for all involved.
It’s interesting and like a horrible bloody Petri dish for weapons - for the US/UK they can provide all sorts of weapons that have never been tried in real life situations, and they could never be otherwise be tested against Russian armour in real life conditions/testing.
If they didn’t work then back to the drawing board but if they are working, and they seem to be, then it changes the balance of NATO/Russian military planning. If Russian tanks are vulnerable then the idea of them sweeping across the Baltic is obsolete and it swings to air power. So HYUFD’s tank requirement might be fighting the last war.
A bit like the Turkish drones proving more than useful and making military planners have to rethink.
Am I right that this is the first time NLAWs have been used in anger? From what I am reading I am getting the impression they are proving remarkably effective
It's not the first time in the sense that they are just latest upgrade in a line that started with PIATs, Bazookas and Panzerfausts. The former two weren't that effective but the latter were, so much so that Allied troops made use of any they could capture intact. The development of hand held AT weapons in WW2 rendered tanks pretty vulnerable in theatres offering any reasonable amount of cover, so tanks had then to be used in tandem with infantry to first flush out opposing industry in places of ambush.
Yes but these things are very different, not least in their ability to manoeuvre over a target vehicle and attack it fro above. There is a good summary of the weapon here:
They are at pains to point out that this is a missile rather than a rocket.
"Cognizant of threats posed by modern active protection systems and reactive armor, the NLAW operator can opt for an overfly top attack mode. This launches the missile toward the tank turret, where it explodes. Its downward-angled HEAT warhead perforates the thin upper armor even if it’s covered with Explosive Reactive Armor (ERA)."
Partly a SAAB product, therefore built like a ... tank.
It has very particular attributes - little blowback so can be used from confined spaces, easy to learn, short minimum range - the width of my garden, light (12kg). can punch through quite thick armour (0.5m), and can hit either directly or from above.
Wonder why the Russians might be discussing cease fire?
Ukrainian MOD reports that the Russian advance near Konotop is running into supply problems, Russian troops are having to forage for fuel.
Asks Ukrainians to sabotage any Russian fuel with sugar.
"Tankists walk with canisters and try to buy fuel. Soldiers of the occupation forces demand food from the local population. Cases of looting of trade institutions on the side of Russian occupiers have been recorded.".
This lighting up buildings in Ukrainian colours is frankly insulting. What virtue signalling crap
It now the defacto 21st Century response, along with update your social media account with a flag whenever anything bad happens.
Honestly, so long as it is not a constant thing, I think signalling virtue via your social media account is not that aggravating, everyone is all just commenting and signalling in some way anyway. But signalling it via some light show on a building? It's overdone and lame.
If you'd told me 48 hours ago that there would be even a question about Russia winning this War.
Depends what winning is considered to be, doesn't it
Presumably it'd be hard for Russia to not come out ahead in terms of gained territory etc, given the disparities, but the ambition shown by the initial assaults would suggest limited gains (or failure to exact regime change etc) would be a failure?
But the 'disputed' territory is held by Russia already. Surely everywhere else would face massive resistance?
The area claimed by the 'independent' republics was not entirely held by them. I'd assumed if a limited goal was intended it was to expand that area so that the entire areas claimed by them would be under their control. Even if that was all they managed, it would still be a gain.
Not much of one. Considering what has been lost.
Russia has lost all credibility in the civilised world. I really don't know where it goes from here.
Regime change. It is Putin that is the problem. The Russian people are his victims too.
"⚡️BREAKING: Kyiv home guard, the 112th Territorial Defense Brigade, now operate British-provided NLAWs. Welcome to hell, motherfuckers."
It's pretty notable how much Russia has been unwilling/unable to make headway into urban areas. If they do it is going to be horrifically bloody for all involved.
It’s interesting and like a horrible bloody Petri dish for weapons - for the US/UK they can provide all sorts of weapons that have never been tried in real life situations, and they could never be otherwise be tested against Russian armour in real life conditions/testing.
If they didn’t work then back to the drawing board but if they are working, and they seem to be, then it changes the balance of NATO/Russian military planning. If Russian tanks are vulnerable then the idea of them sweeping across the Baltic is obsolete and it swings to air power. So HYUFD’s tank requirement might be fighting the last war.
A bit like the Turkish drones proving more than useful and making military planners have to rethink.
Am I right that this is the first time NLAWs have been used in anger? From what I am reading I am getting the impression they are proving remarkably effective
It's not the first time in the sense that they are just latest upgrade in a line that started with PIATs, Bazookas and Panzerfausts. The former two weren't that effective but the latter were, so much so that Allied troops made use of any they could capture intact. The development of hand held AT weapons in WW2 rendered tanks pretty vulnerable in theatres offering any reasonable amount of cover, so tanks had then to be used in tandem with infantry to first flush out opposing industry in places of ambush.
Yes but these things are very different, not least in their ability to manoeuvre over a target vehicle and attack it fro above. There is a good summary of the weapon here:
They are at pains to point out that this is a missile rather than a rocket.
"Cognizant of threats posed by modern active protection systems and reactive armor, the NLAW operator can opt for an overfly top attack mode. This launches the missile toward the tank turret, where it explodes. Its downward-angled HEAT warhead perforates the thin upper armor even if it’s covered with Explosive Reactive Armor (ERA)."
Partly a SAAB product, therefore built like a ... tank.
It has very particular attributes - little blowback so can be used from confined spaces, easy to learn, short minimum range - the width of my garden, light (12kg). can punch through quite thick armour (0.5m), and can hit either directly or from above.
Also cheap - £20k.
If that's right, it may be that Russia suddenly has a lot of tanks that are going to be surplus to requirements.
"Hearing that western diplomats at the Security Council are increasingly confident that they have peeled China away from Russia in the imminent vote, persuading Beijing to abstain rather than vote against the resolution. In the quest to isolate Russia this would be significant."
This lighting up buildings in Ukrainian colours is frankly insulting. What virtue signalling crap
It now the defacto 21st Century response, along with update your social media account with a flag whenever anything bad happens.
Honestly, so long as it is not a constant thing, I think signalling virtue via your social media account is not that aggravating, everyone is all just commenting and signalling in some way anyway. But signalling it via some light show on a building? It's overdone and lame.
If you'd told me 48 hours ago that there would be even a question about Russia winning this War.
Depends what winning is considered to be, doesn't it
Presumably it'd be hard for Russia to not come out ahead in terms of gained territory etc, given the disparities, but the ambition shown by the initial assaults would suggest limited gains (or failure to exact regime change etc) would be a failure?
But the 'disputed' territory is held by Russia already. Surely everywhere else would face massive resistance?
The area claimed by the 'independent' republics was not entirely held by them. I'd assumed if a limited goal was intended it was to expand that area so that the entire areas claimed by them would be under their control. Even if that was all they managed, it would still be a gain.
Not much of one. Considering what has been lost.
Russia has lost all credibility in the civilised world. I really don't know where it goes from here.
Regime change. It is Putin that is the problem. The Russian people are his victims too.
Naturally I agree, but I am not sure how it happens, nor can we assume it would be for the better.
If you'd told me 48 hours ago that there would be even a question about Russia winning this War.
Depends what winning is considered to be, doesn't it
Presumably it'd be hard for Russia to not come out ahead in terms of gained territory etc, given the disparities, but the ambition shown by the initial assaults would suggest limited gains (or failure to exact regime change etc) would be a failure?
But the 'disputed' territory is held by Russia already. Surely everywhere else would face massive resistance?
The area claimed by the 'independent' republics was not entirely held by them. I'd assumed if a limited goal was intended it was to expand that area so that the entire areas claimed by them would be under their control. Even if that was all they managed, it would still be a gain.
Not much of one. Considering what has been lost.
Russia has lost all credibility in the civilised world. I really don't know where it goes from here.
Regime change. It is Putin that is the problem. The Russian people are his victims too.
Russia is the problem. All of my life they've been threatening my death. This must lead to the end of Russia.
"⚡️BREAKING: Kyiv home guard, the 112th Territorial Defense Brigade, now operate British-provided NLAWs. Welcome to hell, motherfuckers."
It's pretty notable how much Russia has been unwilling/unable to make headway into urban areas. If they do it is going to be horrifically bloody for all involved.
It’s interesting and like a horrible bloody Petri dish for weapons - for the US/UK they can provide all sorts of weapons that have never been tried in real life situations, and they could never be otherwise be tested against Russian armour in real life conditions/testing.
If they didn’t work then back to the drawing board but if they are working, and they seem to be, then it changes the balance of NATO/Russian military planning. If Russian tanks are vulnerable then the idea of them sweeping across the Baltic is obsolete and it swings to air power. So HYUFD’s tank requirement might be fighting the last war.
A bit like the Turkish drones proving more than useful and making military planners have to rethink.
Am I right that this is the first time NLAWs have been used in anger? From what I am reading I am getting the impression they are proving remarkably effective
It's not the first time in the sense that they are just latest upgrade in a line that started with PIATs, Bazookas and Panzerfausts. The former two weren't that effective but the latter were, so much so that Allied troops made use of any they could capture intact. The development of hand held AT weapons in WW2 rendered tanks pretty vulnerable in theatres offering any reasonable amount of cover, so tanks had then to be used in tandem with infantry to first flush out opposing industry in places of ambush.
Yes but these things are very different, not least in their ability to manoeuvre over a target vehicle and attack it fro above. There is a good summary of the weapon here:
They are at pains to point out that this is a missile rather than a rocket.
"Cognizant of threats posed by modern active protection systems and reactive armor, the NLAW operator can opt for an overfly top attack mode. This launches the missile toward the tank turret, where it explodes. Its downward-angled HEAT warhead perforates the thin upper armor even if it’s covered with Explosive Reactive Armor (ERA)."
Partly a SAAB product, therefore built like a ... tank.
It has very particular attributes - little blowback so can be used from confined spaces, easy to learn, short minimum range - the width of my garden, light (12kg). can punch through quite thick armour (0.5m), and can hit either directly or from above.
Also cheap - £20k.
If that's right, it may be that Russia suddenly has a lot of tanks that are going to be surplus to requirements.
E-Bay could be flooded with the things.
Mmm... given the number of potholes round my way, could be of interest. How many miles to the gallon? (or is it gallons to the mile?)
Confused by what Mikey Kay said on BBC news. Apparently Russia doesn't have control over Ukraine's eastern airspace. I thought the Ukrainians had virtually no air capability?
Also how are we going to keep supplies of ammunition in to Ukraine if the government falls and the border is closed?
russia saying relations with west reaching point of no return from telegraph
Russia says relations with West nearing 'point of no return' Moscow says its relations with the West were close to a "point of no return" after several countries imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
"We have reached the line after which the point of no return begins," Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Russian television.
If only we could identify how things had come to that point.
What does it even mean? What are they expecting as a response?
It can either be oh dear or Russian military shit go fuck yourselves.
Zakhorova is a known antisemitic nutter. I am shocked that this poster would quote her.
If you'd told me 48 hours ago that there would be even a question about Russia winning this War.
Depends what winning is considered to be, doesn't it
Presumably it'd be hard for Russia to not come out ahead in terms of gained territory etc, given the disparities, but the ambition shown by the initial assaults would suggest limited gains (or failure to exact regime change etc) would be a failure?
I imagine Putin counted on lots of fifth columnists and maybe an uprising against the Ukrainian government.
Many bullies are themselves cowards, so they assume that everyone else is as well. This one seems to have underestimated his victims, so far anyway.
21:33 BREAKING Zelensky - Ukraine ready to discuss ceasefire A spokesman for Ukrainian President Zelensky has just said the country is prepared to hold ceasefire and peace talks with Russia immediately.
He said Russian and Ukrainian officials are currently discussing a time and place for talks to be held.
21:41 Ukraine denies reports it rebuffed offer of peace talks Ukraine has denied reports that it rebuffed a Russian offer to explore peace talks.
The Ukrainian president's spokesman, Serhiy Nykyforov, said on Facebook: "I have to deny statements that we have refused to hold talks.
"Ukraine was and remains ready to talk about the end to fighting and about peace. This is our unchanged position.
"We agreed to the offer by the Russian president. Right at this moment, the sides are consulting on the place and time of holding the negotiating process.
"The sooner the talks begin, the more chances there will be to restore normal life."
I don’t think this means that talks have been agreed - rather that Ukraine has countered Putin’s suggestion of talks, which carried absurd preconditions (effectively unconditional surrender), with their own more rational offer.
If you'd told me 48 hours ago that there would be even a question about Russia winning this War.
Depends what winning is considered to be, doesn't it
Presumably it'd be hard for Russia to not come out ahead in terms of gained territory etc, given the disparities, but the ambition shown by the initial assaults would suggest limited gains (or failure to exact regime change etc) would be a failure?
But the 'disputed' territory is held by Russia already. Surely everywhere else would face massive resistance?
The area claimed by the 'independent' republics was not entirely held by them. I'd assumed if a limited goal was intended it was to expand that area so that the entire areas claimed by them would be under their control. Even if that was all they managed, it would still be a gain.
Not much of one. Considering what has been lost.
Russia has lost all credibility in the civilised world. I really don't know where it goes from here.
Regime change. It is Putin that is the problem. The Russian people are his victims too.
Russia is the problem. All of my life they've been threatening my death. This must lead to the end of Russia.
Perhaps it should be incorporated into a new state with its capital in Kiev.
A friend trapped in Hostomel village, near the airport, says around 50 Russian tanks and 50 grad launchers gathered and moved toward Kyiv at 1800 - there has been heavy exchange of fire in that direction since. He said the airport had been destroyed and could not be used to land.
Confused by what Mikey Kay said on BBC news. Apparently Russia doesn't have control over Ukraine's eastern airspace. I thought the Ukrainians had virtually no air capability?
Does it simply mean that Russian aircraft are being shot down?
Comments
There’s also a proportion of the Ukrainian population who are ambivilant about Putin/Russia. For now. They are useful to Russia.
As I said last night, unfortunately, I think Putin basically wins this rather pointless war.
They shouldn’t just restrict to Russian registered planes.
For example the Isle of Man has a large aircraft registry for private jets. The relevant UK minister should be on the phone to the Manx govt now demanding a list of all planes registered there which are owned by an individual or entity controlled by or individually Russian nationals.
This list should then be added to planes that are not allowed in UK airspace, the list should be shared with the US and EU and they should also stop them.
This should be the same for any territory which has a registry.
Kick the oligarchs and SHNW Russian nationals where it hurts - remove their toys, constrain their freedom. Make it clear they are travelling Ryanair to the south of France for this summer season.
The more wealthy Russian nationals who feel the squeeze will increase pressure on Putin as they will be complaining to the man up the line that they cannot use their cash despite what they had to hand over to Putin and eventually the higher ups will step in.
1. Try to hit the capital and topple the government
2. Try to destroy the heaviest concentration (and probably the best of) of the Ukrainian military which is based in the East of the country via the South North and North South line of attacks.
The rest though is a bit of a mystery like the sizeable group of forces sitting in the West of Belarus and other second echelon forces not yet committed which often happens during breakout after the crack is found.
Where the thread is more speculative is the idea that the Ukrainians are attacking the rear (and indeed possibly aiming to pocket the most the advanced Russian forces). Viable as it may be, we just haven't seen much actual evidence of that approach in action as yet. In fact it might be a bit early in the day for it.
It seems to me that you'd have pretty universal support here on PB.
Zelensky said three columns of tanks were en route to Kyiv & spoke of how Ukrainian troops had been massacred on snake island
Johnson found himself lost for words
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1497317728679563271
Zelensky has found greatness thrust upon him and has risen to the challenge.
And BoZo is a fucking clown
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/leaks-show-russian-oligarchs-registering-jets-in-isle-of-man
The Jewish community evacuating from Odessa.
Johnson, a man who is usually renowned for his verbosity, for once found himself lost for words.
Instead he gave a sigh and said: “Oh dear.”
The prime minister pledged to do all he could to strengthen sanctions and insisted that Putin would ultimately fail
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1497320132607098891
To the people of Russia: I do not believe this war is in your name.
This crisis, this tragedy, can and must come to an end. Because the world needs a free and sovereign Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1497318170671128584
I've been vocal in dislike of Boris, including that the current situation should not mean he sticks around - quite the opposite in fact.
But that tweet to me shows that he could see things are serious and for once cut out the showmanship and bluster, and made as reasonable a pledge as he could make. NOT seeking to embody the spirit of Churchill in such a moment or indulge in grandiose verbosity would be one of the more professional, serious things Boris will have done as PM.
Zelensky doesn't need a faux-Churchill, he needs help. Boris cannot really give him much, but within the bounds of diplomatic support he's offered what he can.
They don’t want other people using their planes when they are at that level.
Assuming that Putin's plan was to send special forces into the city within a day or two, decapitate the government, and force capitulation, in that respect it looks as if he's already failed. It's clear that the Ukrainians are going to fight street by street, block by block, and make the Russians pay for every inch with blood.
The longer this goes on, the more the bodies will start piling up, and the more opposition he will face internally.
So he has two options, either escalate this into a war where he starts indiscriminately shooting, bombing and murdering civilians (making him even less popular at home and abroad) or find a way to back down while saving face. If he has any sense at all, he will back down by, say, retreating to the disputed regions, saying "these are ours now" and declaring "mission accomplished" even if it is a blatant lie.
Unfortunately I do not think we are dealing with a rational man in Putin, so anything could happen, including further escalation.
Ultimately Boris reaction will be judged by what kit they get to the Ukrainians and how effective sanctions are.
from telegraph
Russia says relations with West nearing 'point of no return'
Moscow says its relations with the West were close to a "point of no return" after several countries imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
"We have reached the line after which the point of no return begins," Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Russian television.
It can either be oh dear or Russian military shit go fuck yourselves.
Maybe look at yourself @Scott_xP
BREAKING
Zelensky - Ukraine ready to discuss ceasefire
A spokesman for Ukrainian President Zelensky has just said the country is prepared to hold ceasefire and peace talks with Russia immediately.
He said Russian and Ukrainian officials are currently discussing a time and place for talks to be held.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60517447
And this is happening because of an unprovoked assault by Russia, who are also deeply hostile to us.
Hopefully it makes an impression on people. It has deeply affected me.
You a net contributor of taxes in a nato member state? If yes, rejoice.
Of course, ceasefires are often agreed then immediately breached.
21:41
Ukraine denies reports it rebuffed offer of peace talks
Ukraine has denied reports that it rebuffed a Russian offer to explore peace talks.
The Ukrainian president's spokesman, Serhiy Nykyforov, said on Facebook: "I have to deny statements that we have refused to hold talks.
"Ukraine was and remains ready to talk about the end to fighting and about peace. This is our unchanged position.
"We agreed to the offer by the Russian president. Right at this moment, the sides are consulting on the place and time of holding the negotiating process.
"The sooner the talks begin, the more chances there will be to restore normal life."
Russia
Syria
Nicaragua
Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh)
Transnistria
South Ossetia
Venezuela
Nauru
Another nightmare day in Tallinn. Fear and defiance in equal measure, but few of us sleep well.
The brutal threats to Finland this morning were point blank a threat of war, and it really feels like the Kremlin has gone insane and in its death spiral is determined to take as many people out as it can.
There will be another demonstration tomorrow to protest the Russian attack, so many came to the Embassy yesterday that the road was blocked solid. Tomorrow they will hold it in Freedom Square.
People are stoic and the feeling is that if the attack on the Suwalki gap comes, then at least NATO can use its military forces directly, and if we are attacked then de facto Finalnd and Sweden and also what is left of Ukraine are part of NATO and we can directly attack the Russian forces there too.
Yet as always the risk of the use of nuclear weapons remains a constant danger.
In this nightmarish fever dream the only reality is that the Kremlin is in the hands of evil, and quite possibly insane evil.
I guess we are learning that the old Polish slogan "Za naszą i waszą wolność", "for your freedom and for ours" is even more true than we knew. Freedom is indivisible and if you stop calling out tyranny, sooner or later, tyranny will come calling for you.
We are sending as much equipment to Ukraine as we can spare, but we are also conscious that we may be needing it ourselves quite soon.
Khan - get back to the day job.
https://twitter.com/juliaskripkaser/status/1497023968943161344
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-invasion-boris-johnson-directly-addresses-russian-people-in-their-language-i-do-not-believe-this-war-is-in-your-name-12551719
Considering what has been lost.
And then, if the war continues, what is Vlad to do with Zelensky if he remains in Kiev and refuses to flee? Kill him? Imprison him in the Gulag? Another mythic figure.
Whatever his very many faults Boris has some good points too. He's showing some good points in this.
Apparently the Irish roughed up the Russian Ambassador earlier today. Now that's the kind of virtue signalling I could go for.
Ukrainian MOD reports that the Russian advance near Konotop is running into supply problems, Russian troops are having to forage for fuel.
Asks Ukrainians to sabotage any Russian fuel with sugar.
"Tankists walk with canisters and try to buy fuel. Soldiers of the occupation forces demand food from the local population. Cases of looting of trade institutions on the side of Russian occupiers have been recorded.".
https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1497317763152597004?s=21
It has very particular attributes - little blowback so can be used from confined spaces, easy to learn, short minimum range - the width of my garden, light (12kg). can punch through quite thick armour (0.5m), and can hit either directly or from above.
Also cheap - £20k.
https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1497290555709132811?t=so0j00OhQykS42fjwtLpeQ&s=19
It does sound as if ambushing those supporting convoys might be a very good use of those militias.
Don’t shoot the messenger.
E-Bay could be flooded with the things.
"Hearing that western diplomats at the Security Council are increasingly confident that they have peeled China away from Russia in the imminent vote, persuading Beijing to abstain rather than vote against the resolution. In the quest to isolate Russia this would be significant."
https://twitter.com/Stone_SkyNews/status/1497328792725041152?s=20&t=J3bzr9FeypYVrqs50l6AHw
Also how are we going to keep supplies of ammunition in to Ukraine if the government falls and the border is closed?
Many bullies are themselves cowards, so they assume that everyone else is as well. This one seems to have underestimated his victims, so far anyway.
https://twitter.com/MaxRTucker/status/1497310044123246592