"⚡️BREAKING: Kyiv home guard, the 112th Territorial Defense Brigade, now operate British-provided NLAWs. Welcome to hell, motherfuckers."
It's pretty notable how much Russia has been unwilling/unable to make headway into urban areas. If they do it is going to be horrifically bloody for all involved.
It’s interesting and like a horrible bloody Petri dish for weapons - for the US/UK they can provide all sorts of weapons that have never been tried in real life situations, and they could never be otherwise be tested against Russian armour in real life conditions/testing.
If they didn’t work then back to the drawing board but if they are working, and they seem to be, then it changes the balance of NATO/Russian military planning. If Russian tanks are vulnerable then the idea of them sweeping across the Baltic is obsolete and it swings to air power. So HYUFD’s tank requirement might be fighting the last war.
A bit like the Turkish drones proving more than useful and making military planners have to rethink.
As Russia also has the largest airforce in Europe without heavy US air support the point remains, European NATO powers need more military hardware, whether tanks or fighter jets and bombers
How much of that air force is actually working or doesn't need stripping down after 3 flights?
They have all sorts of things on paper, but the reality doesn't seem to match.
The problem is not their conventional forces. It is what they would do when the conventional forces lose.
As I said earlier: Russia has some forces that are world-class. It also has a lot of very poor quality forces.
If there’s one thing that seems likely to come out of this, it’s a notable jump in the % of GDP that will need to be spent on defence, throughout the west, in the coming decade. That should be enough to knock a few % off the valuation of global stock markets. Instead, they seem to have discounted the war as economically irrelevant.
Why? Defence spending is surely the bees knees for arms exporting economies like the UK, US, France etc?
It's particularly good news for France who, one would note, have not been shy to sell arms to Ukraine.
I hate to use the phrase as I am the first to admit it is shallow and perhaps callous but after a dubious start I think Macron is having a 'good war' so far. He was right to try and find a diplomatic solution to all of this whilst also preparing for failure and his pronouncements and his support for tough sanctions against Russia (which go beyond what is proposed by the EU) as well as supplying the Ukrainians with defence equipment and his move to speed up putting French forces into Romania all show he is taking this seriously and acting accordingly.
Much as I am not a big fan of Macron normally, given a choice between him and his likely opponents, most of whom seem to be Putin apologists, I would choose him every time.
The thing I was most impressed with is that he's allowed French arms manufacturers to use the government export finance facility - that is the Ukrainians don't actually need to hand over money now.
Cynically, of course, this is very good news for France's arms industry. But I also appreciate that - unlike some countries - the French were very willing to change their stance when Russia invaded.
It is of course the case - and I can only say this because @TSE seems not to be here - that the Falklands war was effectively won by the French in that they sold us exocet missiles, and declined to sell thewm to Argentinia.
The nation of collaborators were perfidious during the Falklands.
But Mitterrand's policy of supporting Britain provoked dissent among some senior officials in the French foreign ministry.
In a stinging memo dated 7 April 1982, France's then ambassador to London, Emmanuel de Margerie, described British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as "Victorian, imperialist and obstinate". He went on to add that she had a "tendency to get carried away by combative instincts".
In another document entitled The Falklands: Lessons from a Fiasco, senior French official Bernard Dorin accused Britain of "superpower arrogance" and claimed the country had shown "profound contempt for Latinos".
Behind the scenes, actions were speaking louder than words. In what would appear to be a clear breach of President Mitterrand's embargo, a French technical team - mainly working for a company 51% owned by the French government - stayed in Argentina throughout the war.
In an interview carried out in 1982 by Sunday Times journalist Isabel Hilton, the team's leader, Herve Colin, admitted carrying out one particular test that proved invaluable to Argentinian forces.
"The verification process involves determining if the missile launcher was functioning correctly or not. Three of the launchers failed. We located the source of the problem and that was it. The rest was simple."
The Ukraine crisis likely secures Boris until the local elections. Provided the Tories avoid massive losses there he will likely survive beyond that too.
If he is fined by the Met then it will be hard for him to survive, however if Sunak is also fined his leadership chances would also be over too. That would leave Hunt or Truss as the likely new PM
Clearly, the country needs Hunt in the job asap. Your job is to help make it happen.
Johnson will probably not be fined. Even if he is - no way he is going during this crisis.
Agree. Circumstances, even ghastly ones, keep being on his side. FWIW I, generally a Tory voter, will not vote Tory while he is leader (Patersongate, cover up of Partygate, smearing SKS, obvious terminological inexactitudes) but I think there is a +50% chance he will lead into the next election, a nearly 50% chance that the Tories will form the next government, and a roughly 25% chance that Boris will lead and win. It would be grossly undeserved, but as Napoleon said:
"I would rather have my generals be lucky than able"
If there’s one thing that seems likely to come out of this, it’s a notable jump in the % of GDP that will need to be spent on defence, throughout the west, in the coming decade. That should be enough to knock a few % off the valuation of global stock markets. Instead, they seem to have discounted the war as economically irrelevant.
Certainly struck me as odd. I thought markets dont like uncertainty?
its a mechanical move. Too many people shorted the invasion....market never gives money away that trade was too obvious..those shorts have to be squeezed out...also the market had been falling for weeks before too
I haven’t looked at the stats but always be sceptical about market moves on a Friday as liquidity is lower so small trades move markets disproportionately.
wall street has had 2 days of big rallies now...its the next move that will be telling as stocks are still well down on the year
I'll bet you're a fan of rallies, right?
as in to make money off of...sure who wouldnt be
It's clear the Markets are predicting a quick win for Vlad with fuck all consequences.
I have been in a deep black dog depression about all this the last 48 hours. Terrible times. But I am starting to feel the tiny glimmer of hope. Putin may have fucked up here and his reign is nearer the end than we thought.
He did that years ago when he amassed a dishonest fortune and collected too many evil secrets. He had to arrange to be in power for life knowing when he lost power he lost his freedom and life.
I have been in a deep black dog depression about all this the last 48 hours. Terrible times. But I am starting to feel the tiny glimmer of hope. Putin may have fucked up here and his reign is nearer the end than we thought.
that is rather wishful thinking i think...but if it helps your state of mind thats good
If there’s one thing that seems likely to come out of this, it’s a notable jump in the % of GDP that will need to be spent on defence, throughout the west, in the coming decade. That should be enough to knock a few % off the valuation of global stock markets. Instead, they seem to have discounted the war as economically irrelevant.
Certainly struck me as odd. I thought markets dont like uncertainty?
its a mechanical move. Too many people shorted the invasion....market never gives money away that trade was too obvious..those shorts have to be squeezed out...also the market had been falling for weeks before too
I haven’t looked at the stats but always be sceptical about market moves on a Friday as liquidity is lower so small trades move markets disproportionately.
wall street has had 2 days of big rallies now...its the next move that will be telling as stocks are still well down on the year
I'll bet you're a fan of rallies, right?
as in to make money off of...sure who wouldnt be
It's clear the Markets are predicting a quick win for Vlad with fuck all consequences.
NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg said the alliance was deploying parts of its combat-ready response force and would continue to send weapons to Ukraine, including air defences "We are now deploying the NATO response force for the first time in the context of collective defence" https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1497271044889100292
If Russian plans didn't envisage a full scale occupation but more a strike at the center, an elimination of the best of the Ukrainian military in the east, then a puppet in Kiev then those promised weapons will come in handy. This again poses the question that I raised last night why didn't the Russians drive the most westerly group of forces sitting around Brest in Belarus straight down the border area between Ukraine & Poland. It doesn't take a genius to work out that's where main hub of the moving goods logistic operation to supply weapons is based.
Meanwhile in Kiev there clearly are attempts to disrupt from within the city. It was flagged as something to watch for and its certainly happening, though it appears not to much effect yet. This is a mix of prep work & target acquisition but also an attempt to cause chaos and collapse from within, easing the conventional forces approach.
Strategically more concerning is that the Russians are trying very hard to wipe the Ukrainian air force out this evening and have been launching strikes from distance on airfields. They didn't quite get the job done in days 1-2. Its imperative the Ukrainians maintain some kind of air strike capability. Unconfirmed stories have it that the Ukrainians have in turn launched ballistic missiles against a Russian airbase in the Rostov region but there is strong not enough verification of that yet.
"Furious Putin prepares to use 'father of all bombs' as brave Ukrainians hold up advance: West warns Russia could use terror weapon that vaporizes bodies alongside a massive Amphibious assault as invaders run into fierce resistance in Kyiv"
I rather suspect that the realistic threat of using a (non-nuclear) WMD would be enough for the Kremlin glitterati to cause Mr Putin to have an unfortunate coronary complication brought on by the stress of standing up to the neo-facist Ukrainian terrorists.
Particularly as we might be able to lend the Ukrainians one to use. Indeed, they may already have them. They could probably manage, for example, a one-off mission to Belgorod or even Rostov-na-Donu
Does Germany hate everybody to the East except Russia?
@visegrad24 During a visit to Poland yesterday, German Environment Minister @SteffiLemke (the Green Party) said Germany will take Poland to court if the country tries to build nuclear power plants.
RT's editor in chief has just tweeted: "If you now feel ashamed to be Russian, don't worry, you're not Russian."
The fact that she's saying that just shows how widespread the feeling is. The Kremlin has made a major miscalculation.
Nataliya Vasilyeva @Nat_Vasilyeva Footage on AP Live right now of an anti-war protest in St Petersburg. People are being arrested. This is completely spontaneous. No one even announced those protests.
If there’s one thing that seems likely to come out of this, it’s a notable jump in the % of GDP that will need to be spent on defence, throughout the west, in the coming decade. That should be enough to knock a few % off the valuation of global stock markets. Instead, they seem to have discounted the war as economically irrelevant.
Why? Defence spending is surely the bees knees for arms exporting economies like the UK, US, France etc?
It's particularly good news for France who, one would note, have not been shy to sell arms to Ukraine.
I hate to use the phrase as I am the first to admit it is shallow and perhaps callous but after a dubious start I think Macron is having a 'good war' so far. He was right to try and find a diplomatic solution to all of this whilst also preparing for failure and his pronouncements and his support for tough sanctions against Russia (which go beyond what is proposed by the EU) as well as supplying the Ukrainians with defence equipment and his move to speed up putting French forces into Romania all show he is taking this seriously and acting accordingly.
Much as I am not a big fan of Macron normally, given a choice between him and his likely opponents, most of whom seem to be Putin apologists, I would choose him every time.
The thing I was most impressed with is that he's allowed French arms manufacturers to use the government export finance facility - that is the Ukrainians don't actually need to hand over money now.
Cynically, of course, this is very good news for France's arms industry. But I also appreciate that - unlike some countries - the French were very willing to change their stance when Russia invaded.
It is of course the case - and I can only say this because @TSE seems not to be here - that the Falklands war was effectively won by the French in that they sold us exocet missiles, and declined to sell thewm to Argentinia.
The nation of collaborators were perfidious during the Falklands.
But Mitterrand's policy of supporting Britain provoked dissent among some senior officials in the French foreign ministry.
In a stinging memo dated 7 April 1982, France's then ambassador to London, Emmanuel de Margerie, described British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as "Victorian, imperialist and obstinate". He went on to add that she had a "tendency to get carried away by combative instincts".
In another document entitled The Falklands: Lessons from a Fiasco, senior French official Bernard Dorin accused Britain of "superpower arrogance" and claimed the country had shown "profound contempt for Latinos".
Behind the scenes, actions were speaking louder than words. In what would appear to be a clear breach of President Mitterrand's embargo, a French technical team - mainly working for a company 51% owned by the French government - stayed in Argentina throughout the war.
In an interview carried out in 1982 by Sunday Times journalist Isabel Hilton, the team's leader, Herve Colin, admitted carrying out one particular test that proved invaluable to Argentinian forces.
"The verification process involves determining if the missile launcher was functioning correctly or not. Three of the launchers failed. We located the source of the problem and that was it. The rest was simple."
The railhead at Brest is close to Poland, but also good for a strike south into West Ukraine. Considering how Putin seems to be stalling in Ukraine, I think it unlikely that he wants to take on the Poles (and NATO) at the same time.
NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg said the alliance was deploying parts of its combat-ready response force and would continue to send weapons to Ukraine, including air defences "We are now deploying the NATO response force for the first time in the context of collective defence" https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1497271044889100292
If Russian plans didn't envisage a full scale occupation but more a strike at the center, an elimination of the best of the Ukrainian military in the east, then a puppet in Kiev then those promised weapons will come in handy. This again poses the question that I raised last night why didn't the Russians drive the most westerly group of forces sitting around Brest in Belarus straight down the border area between Ukraine & Poland. It doesn't take a genius to work out that's where main hub of the moving goods logistic operation to supply weapons is based.
Meanwhile in Kiev there clearly are attempts to disrupt from within the city. It was flagged as something to watch for and its certainly happening, though it appears not to much effect yet. This is a mix of prep work & target acquisition but also an attempt to cause chaos and collapse from within, easing the conventional forces approach.
Strategically more concerning is that the Russians are trying very hard to wipe the Ukrainian air force out this evening and have been launching strikes from distance on airfields. They didn't quite get the job done in days 1-2. Its imperative the Ukrainians maintain some kind of air strike capability. Unconfirmed stories have it that the Ukrainians have in turn launched ballistic missiles against a Russian airbase in the Rostov region but there is strong not enough verification of that yet.
He will and the Poles are no rollover but these troops have been around Belarus for weeks in that general position so its not necessarily the case that its new plus its nowhere near enough to take on a full offensive. The wonks in Western capitals are very aware of the possibility that Putin will try something clever somewhere else, though the possibility is not necessarily considered high. This though is why the fighter patrols have been up from the US & UK in Eastern Poland and the troop number in transit are rising.
If there’s one thing that seems likely to come out of this, it’s a notable jump in the % of GDP that will need to be spent on defence, throughout the west, in the coming decade. That should be enough to knock a few % off the valuation of global stock markets. Instead, they seem to have discounted the war as economically irrelevant.
Certainly struck me as odd. I thought markets dont like uncertainty?
its a mechanical move. Too many people shorted the invasion....market never gives money away that trade was too obvious..those shorts have to be squeezed out...also the market had been falling for weeks before too
I haven’t looked at the stats but always be sceptical about market moves on a Friday as liquidity is lower so small trades move markets disproportionately.
wall street has had 2 days of big rallies now...its the next move that will be telling as stocks are still well down on the year
I'll bet you're a fan of rallies, right?
as in to make money off of...sure who wouldnt be
It's clear the Markets are predicting a quick win for Vlad with fuck all consequences.
The railhead at Brest is close to Poland, but also good for a strike south into West Ukraine. Considering how Putin seems to be stalling in Ukraine, I think it unlikely that he wants to take on the Poles (and NATO) at the same time.
if Putin wanted to go for Poland he may well deploy some of his special weapons
If there’s one thing that seems likely to come out of this, it’s a notable jump in the % of GDP that will need to be spent on defence, throughout the west, in the coming decade. That should be enough to knock a few % off the valuation of global stock markets. Instead, they seem to have discounted the war as economically irrelevant.
Certainly struck me as odd. I thought markets dont like uncertainty?
its a mechanical move. Too many people shorted the invasion....market never gives money away that trade was too obvious..those shorts have to be squeezed out...also the market had been falling for weeks before too
I haven’t looked at the stats but always be sceptical about market moves on a Friday as liquidity is lower so small trades move markets disproportionately.
wall street has had 2 days of big rallies now...its the next move that will be telling as stocks are still well down on the year
I'll bet you're a fan of rallies, right?
as in to make money off of...sure who wouldnt be
It's clear the Markets are predicting a quick win for Vlad with fuck all consequences.
Nope.
Rule of Acquisition 34 applies, as does 35.
Energy companies are expected to do well.
Putin would also be wise to heed Quark's counsel - "They have weapons, you have weapons, everyone has weapons; but right now, no one has a clear advantage. So the price of peace is at an all-time low. This is the perfect time to sit down and hammer out an agreement."
NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg said the alliance was deploying parts of its combat-ready response force and would continue to send weapons to Ukraine, including air defences "We are now deploying the NATO response force for the first time in the context of collective defence" https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1497271044889100292
If Russian plans didn't envisage a full scale occupation but more a strike at the center, an elimination of the best of the Ukrainian military in the east, then a puppet in Kiev then those promised weapons will come in handy. This again poses the question that I raised last night why didn't the Russians drive the most westerly group of forces sitting around Brest in Belarus straight down the border area between Ukraine & Poland. It doesn't take a genius to work out that's where main hub of the moving goods logistic operation to supply weapons is based.
Meanwhile in Kiev there clearly are attempts to disrupt from within the city. It was flagged as something to watch for and its certainly happening, though it appears not to much effect yet. This is a mix of prep work & target acquisition but also an attempt to cause chaos and collapse from within, easing the conventional forces approach.
Strategically more concerning is that the Russians are trying very hard to wipe the Ukrainian air force out this evening and have been launching strikes from distance on airfields. They didn't quite get the job done in days 1-2. Its imperative the Ukrainians maintain some kind of air strike capability. Unconfirmed stories have it that the Ukrainians have in turn launched ballistic missiles against a Russian airbase in the Rostov region but there is strong not enough verification of that yet.
Don’t know how accurate this is. (Apart from the Germany bit.)
I can reveal that at least five NATO countries decided to supply “all weapons, Ukraine asks for” to the defending nation, though “it might be too late”. The supply started yesterday. “Germany is not among them”, the senior source tells me. https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1497268944255733770
Russian users who tried to go on PornHub were presented with a message saying the content is blocked along with a Ukrainian flag and a message of support to Ukraine.
RT's editor in chief has just tweeted: "If you now feel ashamed to be Russian, don't worry, you're not Russian."
The fact that she's saying that just shows how widespread the feeling is. The Kremlin has made a major miscalculation.
Yes. This is shameful
Free democracies do not attack each other. That's how it works. Russian is meant to be democratic, likewise Ukraine. How much of this is hypocritical cant? - lots - but nonetheless it matters. It is a sign of First World, developed status, and an awful lot of richer Russians feel they are, or should be, part of this advanced world. Better than the heathens
Putin's aggression reduces them to the status of Genghis Khan's Mongols. Or Hitler. The Russian upper classes will not like this one bit. He has rendered them unclubbable
If. And this is a massive 'if' so big you can see from the moon, Putin has gambled and fecked up, then hats off to Matthew Parris who posted an article to last week's Speccie saying we should not interrupted an enemy while they are making a mistake.
Russian users who tried to go on PornHub were presented with a message saying the content is blocked along with a Ukrainian flag and a message of support to Ukraine.
I spent the last few hours in conference where it was discussed that keeping Russia in SWIFT may be the worst thing for Russia.
Remaining in SWIFT allows capital flight out of the CCCP, sorry Russia.
14.51 today by yours truly:
"Thinking about the SWIFT issue. Are we more effective by banning Russia from using it, or by keeping them in and encouraging capital flight from the Russian economy?"
He will and the Poles are no rollover but these troops have been around Belarus for weeks in that general position so its not necessarily the case that its new plus its nowhere near enough to take on a full offensive. The wonks in Western capitals are very aware of the possibility that Putin will try something clever somewhere else, though the possibility is not necessarily considered high. This though is why the fighter patrols have been up from the US & UK in Eastern Poland and the troop number in transit are rising.
It seems unlikely as it would mean taking on NATO air forces directly. They’d lose quite quickly, I think.
If there’s one thing that seems likely to come out of this, it’s a notable jump in the % of GDP that will need to be spent on defence, throughout the west, in the coming decade. That should be enough to knock a few % off the valuation of global stock markets. Instead, they seem to have discounted the war as economically irrelevant.
Why? Defence spending is surely the bees knees for arms exporting economies like the UK, US, France etc?
It's particularly good news for France who, one would note, have not been shy to sell arms to Ukraine.
I hate to use the phrase as I am the first to admit it is shallow and perhaps callous but after a dubious start I think Macron is having a 'good war' so far. He was right to try and find a diplomatic solution to all of this whilst also preparing for failure and his pronouncements and his support for tough sanctions against Russia (which go beyond what is proposed by the EU) as well as supplying the Ukrainians with defence equipment and his move to speed up putting French forces into Romania all show he is taking this seriously and acting accordingly.
Much as I am not a big fan of Macron normally, given a choice between him and his likely opponents, most of whom seem to be Putin apologists, I would choose him every time.
I would also rate Macron more highly than Johnson, who gives the impression that he is not sure which side he is on.
Russian users who tried to go on PornHub were presented with a message saying the content is blocked along with a Ukrainian flag and a message of support to Ukraine.
Feels like Ukraine has pushed Covid off the agenda just as effectively as Covid itself managed to get everyone to stop talking about Brexit in March 2020.
Russian users who tried to go on PornHub were presented with a message saying the content is blocked along with a Ukrainian flag and a message of support to Ukraine.
If there’s one thing that seems likely to come out of this, it’s a notable jump in the % of GDP that will need to be spent on defence, throughout the west, in the coming decade. That should be enough to knock a few % off the valuation of global stock markets. Instead, they seem to have discounted the war as economically irrelevant.
Why? Defence spending is surely the bees knees for arms exporting economies like the UK, US, France etc?
It's particularly good news for France who, one would note, have not been shy to sell arms to Ukraine.
I hate to use the phrase as I am the first to admit it is shallow and perhaps callous but after a dubious start I think Macron is having a 'good war' so far. He was right to try and find a diplomatic solution to all of this whilst also preparing for failure and his pronouncements and his support for tough sanctions against Russia (which go beyond what is proposed by the EU) as well as supplying the Ukrainians with defence equipment and his move to speed up putting French forces into Romania all show he is taking this seriously and acting accordingly.
Much as I am not a big fan of Macron normally, given a choice between him and his likely opponents, most of whom seem to be Putin apologists, I would choose him every time.
Macron was already the best of the options, this event hasn't made that less true, certainly.
If there’s one thing that seems likely to come out of this, it’s a notable jump in the % of GDP that will need to be spent on defence, throughout the west, in the coming decade. That should be enough to knock a few % off the valuation of global stock markets. Instead, they seem to have discounted the war as economically irrelevant.
Certainly struck me as odd. I thought markets dont like uncertainty?
its a mechanical move. Too many people shorted the invasion....market never gives money away that trade was too obvious..those shorts have to be squeezed out...also the market had been falling for weeks before too
I haven’t looked at the stats but always be sceptical about market moves on a Friday as liquidity is lower so small trades move markets disproportionately.
wall street has had 2 days of big rallies now...its the next move that will be telling as stocks are still well down on the year
I'll bet you're a fan of rallies, right?
as in to make money off of...sure who wouldnt be
It's clear the Markets are predicting a quick win for Vlad with fuck all consequences.
I spent the last few hours in conference where it was discussed that keeping Russia in SWIFT may be the worst thing for Russia.
Remaining in SWIFT allows capital flight out of the CCCP, sorry Russia.
14.51 today by yours truly:
"Thinking about the SWIFT issue. Are we more effective by banning Russia from using it, or by keeping them in and encouraging capital flight from the Russian economy?"
Interesting.
Just shows that any news talking point is not always as obvious as the first thoughts are. Nor as obvious as the immediate reaction down at the Dog and Duck.
I spent the last few hours in conference where it was discussed that keeping Russia in SWIFT may be the worst thing for Russia.
Remaining in SWIFT allows capital flight out of the CCCP, sorry Russia.
14.51 today by yours truly:
"Thinking about the SWIFT issue. Are we more effective by banning Russia from using it, or by keeping them in and encouraging capital flight from the Russian economy?"
Interesting.
Just shows that any news talking point is not always as obvious as the first thoughts are. Nor as obvious as the immediate reaction down at the Dog and Duck.
A good explainer....from somebody who knows what they are talking about.
As usual the media jump on something they don't really understand and it becomes the question to every interview, why not cut off from SWIFT, why not cut off from SWIFT, as if it is a trivial obvious cut and dried decision.
If there’s one thing that seems likely to come out of this, it’s a notable jump in the % of GDP that will need to be spent on defence, throughout the west, in the coming decade. That should be enough to knock a few % off the valuation of global stock markets. Instead, they seem to have discounted the war as economically irrelevant.
Why? Defence spending is surely the bees knees for arms exporting economies like the UK, US, France etc?
It's particularly good news for France who, one would note, have not been shy to sell arms to Ukraine.
I hate to use the phrase as I am the first to admit it is shallow and perhaps callous but after a dubious start I think Macron is having a 'good war' so far. He was right to try and find a diplomatic solution to all of this whilst also preparing for failure and his pronouncements and his support for tough sanctions against Russia (which go beyond what is proposed by the EU) as well as supplying the Ukrainians with defence equipment and his move to speed up putting French forces into Romania all show he is taking this seriously and acting accordingly.
Much as I am not a big fan of Macron normally, given a choice between him and his likely opponents, most of whom seem to be Putin apologists, I would choose him every time.
I would also rate Macron more highly than Johnson, who gives the impression that he is not sure which side he is on.
I think it takes a certain amount of warped partisanship to have that impression of Johnson at the moment, and it doesn't seem to be shared by any Ukrainians.
RT's editor in chief has just tweeted: "If you now feel ashamed to be Russian, don't worry, you're not Russian."
The fact that she's saying that just shows how widespread the feeling is. The Kremlin has made a major miscalculation.
For all the condemnation of RT and RT journalists (Salmond), they can see, they can report, and they can't always be controlled. The Kremlin spokes-lady this afternoon was quite amazing in her resolve and focus. If it didn't slightly eat into her soul doing so I'd be surprised.
The Russians have legitimate grievances. They're very small though. I will never knowingly buy a product ever again from those that have Putin as their head of state. Nor will I sell them anything.
Russia has loomed large over my life. All the time they've threatened me and my family. We've done everything to try to get them to not be arses, but arses they are.
There is no place for anything Russian in our world, and (sadly) no place for Russians. It and they all have to go.
Edit: Of course I mean Russian nationalism rather than the people here.
Russian users who tried to go on PornHub were presented with a message saying the content is blocked along with a Ukrainian flag and a message of support to Ukraine.
I spent the last few hours in conference where it was discussed that keeping Russia in SWIFT may be the worst thing for Russia.
Remaining in SWIFT allows capital flight out of the CCCP, sorry Russia.
14.51 today by yours truly:
"Thinking about the SWIFT issue. Are we more effective by banning Russia from using it, or by keeping them in and encouraging capital flight from the Russian economy?"
Interesting.
Just shows that any news talking point is not always as obvious as the first thoughts are. Nor as obvious as the immediate reaction down at the Dog and Duck.
Russian users who tried to go on PornHub were presented with a message saying the content is blocked along with a Ukrainian flag and a message of support to Ukraine.
Feels like Ukraine has pushed Covid off the agenda just as effectively as Covid itself managed to get everyone to stop talking about Brexit in March 2020.
Indeed. Although it seems obvious that Vlad will go nowhere near anyone who might have covid, so perhaps there is some play still in the plague.
I spent the last few hours in conference where it was discussed that keeping Russia in SWIFT may be the worst thing for Russia.
Remaining in SWIFT allows capital flight out of the CCCP, sorry Russia.
14.51 today by yours truly:
"Thinking about the SWIFT issue. Are we more effective by banning Russia from using it, or by keeping them in and encouraging capital flight from the Russian economy?"
Interesting.
Just shows that any news talking point is not always as obvious as the first thoughts are. Nor as obvious as the immediate reaction down at the Dog and Duck.
And another reason why knee-jerk reactions of "this is too weak!" may be wide of the mark. Some effective measures are non-obvious and poorly visible, whilst some ineffective measures may be 'obvious' and do bugger all. To complicate matters, a measure made unilaterally immediately may have less or more effect than one done multilaterally but delayed.
Feels like Ukraine has pushed Covid off the agenda just as effectively as Covid itself managed to get everyone to stop talking about Brexit in March 2020.
Indeed. Although it seems obvious that Vlad will go nowhere near anyone who might have covid, so perhaps there is some play still in the plague.
COVID-19 began and ended with a Russian operation...
Russian users who tried to go on PornHub were presented with a message saying the content is blocked along with a Ukrainian flag and a message of support to Ukraine.
If there’s one thing that seems likely to come out of this, it’s a notable jump in the % of GDP that will need to be spent on defence, throughout the west, in the coming decade. That should be enough to knock a few % off the valuation of global stock markets. Instead, they seem to have discounted the war as economically irrelevant.
Why? Defence spending is surely the bees knees for arms exporting economies like the UK, US, France etc?
It's particularly good news for France who, one would note, have not been shy to sell arms to Ukraine.
I hate to use the phrase as I am the first to admit it is shallow and perhaps callous but after a dubious start I think Macron is having a 'good war' so far. He was right to try and find a diplomatic solution to all of this whilst also preparing for failure and his pronouncements and his support for tough sanctions against Russia (which go beyond what is proposed by the EU) as well as supplying the Ukrainians with defence equipment and his move to speed up putting French forces into Romania all show he is taking this seriously and acting accordingly.
Much as I am not a big fan of Macron normally, given a choice between him and his likely opponents, most of whom seem to be Putin apologists, I would choose him every time.
I would also rate Macron more highly than Johnson, who gives the impression that he is not sure which side he is on.
I was trying to be nice about Macron. Rating him higher than Johnson is damning with faint praise!
I spent the last few hours in conference where it was discussed that keeping Russia in SWIFT may be the worst thing for Russia.
Remaining in SWIFT allows capital flight out of the CCCP, sorry Russia.
14.51 today by yours truly:
"Thinking about the SWIFT issue. Are we more effective by banning Russia from using it, or by keeping them in and encouraging capital flight from the Russian economy?"
Interesting.
Just shows that any news talking point is not always as obvious as the first thoughts are. Nor as obvious as the immediate reaction down at the Dog and Duck.
And another reason why knee-jerk reactions of "this is too weak!" may be wide of the mark. Some effective measures are non-obvious and poorly visible, whilst some ineffective measures may be 'obvious' and do bugger all. To complicate matters, a measure made unilaterally immediately may have less or more effect than one done multilaterally but delayed.
e.g. Sanctions against Putin personal holdings in Europe. Sounds good, but if you watched the Navalny documentary , it seems highly unlikely he hasn't much (if any). The palace, the vineyard etc, nothing is in his name, then it becomes very complicated very quickly about who owns what and if you can prove legally it is actually Putin.
Feels like Ukraine has pushed Covid off the agenda just as effectively as Covid itself managed to get everyone to stop talking about Brexit in March 2020.
Indeed. Although it seems obvious that Vlad will go nowhere near anyone who might have covid, so perhaps there is some play still in the plague.
I cough in Putin's general direction.
His mother was a hamster and his father smelt of elderberries.
And another reason why knee-jerk reactions of "this is too weak!" may be wide of the mark. Some effective measures are non-obvious and poorly visible, whilst some ineffective measures may be 'obvious' and do bugger all. To complicate matters, a measure made unilaterally immediately may have less or more effect than one done multilaterally but delayed.
The Guardian article posted earlier suggested "alternative" sanctions that might be more effective than targeting oligarchs
#Breaking Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said he has extended a flight ban meaning “no Russian private jet can fly in UK airspace, or touchdown – effective immediately” https://twitter.com/PA/status/1497312908228841476/photo/1
RT's editor in chief has just tweeted: "If you now feel ashamed to be Russian, don't worry, you're not Russian."
The fact that she's saying that just shows how widespread the feeling is. The Kremlin has made a major miscalculation.
Yes. This is shameful
Free democracies do not attack each other. That's how it works. Russian is meant to be democratic, likewise Ukraine. How much of this is hypocritical cant? - lots - but nonetheless it matters. It is a sign of First World, developed status, and an awful lot of richer Russians feel they are, or should be, part of this advanced world. Better than the heathens
Putin's aggression reduces them to the status of Genghis Khan's Mongols. Or Hitler. The Russian upper classes will not like this one bit. He has rendered them unclubbable
"The Russian upper classes" will not like it. Indeed. Because for you Mikhail, the party is over. No more twatting around on massive yachts near Cannes while you daughter studies film and drama at a leading UK university in between nightclubbing with the old marching powder in Soho.
And you can forget your third wife getting occasional access to the Queen's third cousin once removed because of her charitable works.
RT's editor in chief has just tweeted: "If you now feel ashamed to be Russian, don't worry, you're not Russian."
The fact that she's saying that just shows how widespread the feeling is. The Kremlin has made a major miscalculation.
Yes. This is shameful
Free democracies do not attack each other. That's how it works. Russian is meant to be democratic, likewise Ukraine. How much of this is hypocritical cant? - lots - but nonetheless it matters. It is a sign of First World, developed status, and an awful lot of richer Russians feel they are, or should be, part of this advanced world. Better than the heathens
Putin's aggression reduces them to the status of Genghis Khan's Mongols. Or Hitler. The Russian upper classes will not like this one bit. He has rendered them unclubbable
Ukrainian racism already sees Russians as uncivilised Asiatics, mostly Tatar and Mongol. Look at the willingness of ordinary Ukies to queue up to be issued with an AK47 and a militia hat. They will not receive them gently. The Russians raped their way through Berlin in 1945 and they will be expecting the same. While they see Russians on either side of the border as being kin, somehow they see the москалі (Muscovites) as something else.
He will and the Poles are no rollover but these troops have been around Belarus for weeks in that general position so its not necessarily the case that its new plus its nowhere near enough to take on a full offensive. The wonks in Western capitals are very aware of the possibility that Putin will try something clever somewhere else, though the possibility is not necessarily considered high. This though is why the fighter patrols have been up from the US & UK in Eastern Poland and the troop number in transit are rising.
It seems unlikely as it would mean taking on NATO air forces directly. They’d lose quite quickly, I think.
I'd agree on that, Russia in a conventional conflict would take a total kicking but NATO doesn't want to be caught out and the way they are bulking up air and land presence tells you they really are concerned about the whole picture.
As I mentioned downthread too, the Metro report is misleading in its intent.
Russian users who tried to go on PornHub were presented with a message saying the content is blocked along with a Ukrainian flag and a message of support to Ukraine.
If true it would pressage an attack to seize the Suwalki gap and link Belarus to the exclave. Lithuania has declared a state of emergency in order to move troops more rapidly to key positions.
..I think this whole exercise was Putin becoming tone death to everything and everyone around him. I can’t see how Ukraine just surrenders and accepts a puppet government
RT's editor in chief has just tweeted: "If you now feel ashamed to be Russian, don't worry, you're not Russian."
The fact that she's saying that just shows how widespread the feeling is. The Kremlin has made a major miscalculation.
Yes. This is shameful
Free democracies do not attack each other. That's how it works. Russian is meant to be democratic, likewise Ukraine. How much of this is hypocritical cant? - lots - but nonetheless it matters. It is a sign of First World, developed status, and an awful lot of richer Russians feel they are, or should be, part of this advanced world. Better than the heathens
Putin's aggression reduces them to the status of Genghis Khan's Mongols. Or Hitler. The Russian upper classes will not like this one bit. He has rendered them unclubbable
Ukrainian racism already sees Russians as uncivilised Asiatics, mostly Tatar and Mongol. Look at the willingness of ordinary Ukies to queue up to be issued with an AK47 and a militia hat. They will not receive them gently. The Russians raped their way through Berlin in 1945 and they will be expecting the same. While they see Russians on either side of the border as being kin, somehow they see the москалі (Muscovites) as something else.
I knew someone from Poland (half German actually) whose grandparents told stories of when the Red Army liberated Poland. They were worse than the Germans. Did things like pulled a tap out of the wall to take with them because they wanted to take the running water. Completely uneducated rabble.
I have been in a deep black dog depression about all this the last 48 hours. Terrible times. But I am starting to feel the tiny glimmer of hope. Putin may have fucked up here and his reign is nearer the end than we thought.
I also think that Putin his miscalculated, but unfortunately he's also an unhinged fascist megalomaniac with an obsession with imperial conquest and an arsenal of many thousands of nuclear warheads. There is a material risk that we're all going to end up dead within the next few months.
Russian users who tried to go on PornHub were presented with a message saying the content is blocked along with a Ukrainian flag and a message of support to Ukraine.
If there’s one thing that seems likely to come out of this, it’s a notable jump in the % of GDP that will need to be spent on defence, throughout the west, in the coming decade. That should be enough to knock a few % off the valuation of global stock markets. Instead, they seem to have discounted the war as economically irrelevant.
Certainly struck me as odd. I thought markets dont like uncertainty?
its a mechanical move. Too many people shorted the invasion....market never gives money away that trade was too obvious..those shorts have to be squeezed out...also the market had been falling for weeks before too
I haven’t looked at the stats but always be sceptical about market moves on a Friday as liquidity is lower so small trades move markets disproportionately.
wall street has had 2 days of big rallies now...its the next move that will be telling as stocks are still well down on the year
I'll bet you're a fan of rallies, right?
as in to make money off of...sure who wouldnt be
It's clear the Markets are predicting a quick win for Vlad with fuck all consequences.
..I think this whole exercise was Putin becoming tone death to everything and everyone around him. I can’t see how Ukraine just surrenders and accepts a puppet government
RT's editor in chief has just tweeted: "If you now feel ashamed to be Russian, don't worry, you're not Russian."
The fact that she's saying that just shows how widespread the feeling is. The Kremlin has made a major miscalculation.
Yes. This is shameful
Free democracies do not attack each other. That's how it works. Russian is meant to be democratic, likewise Ukraine. How much of this is hypocritical cant? - lots - but nonetheless it matters. It is a sign of First World, developed status, and an awful lot of richer Russians feel they are, or should be, part of this advanced world. Better than the heathens
Putin's aggression reduces them to the status of Genghis Khan's Mongols. Or Hitler. The Russian upper classes will not like this one bit. He has rendered them unclubbable
There are one or two seeds of hope: 1) If millions of younger Russians turn out on real Stop the War demos, it will be difficult to silence them without going the full Tiananmen on them 2) Parris may be right when he says the west should believe their own rhetoric about invading being a huge mistake 3) However many Ukrainians leave (and who can blame them) 90%+ will stay, nearly all of whom won't be killed and will live to work for a better day 4) This is the first modern war directly touching the interests of the world we ordinary UK people interact with daily. (In October 2021 Lidl announced plans to expand in Ukraine. Ukrainian HGV drivers turn up on the M6. It's as quotidien as that.) And the first war in our patch in the social media and internet age. In terms of hearts and minds Putin can't win.
When's the moment the political establishment - govt, opposition, SNP - faces up to reality and tells the public energy policy is a delusional disaster? And COP26 was before Ukraine when geopolitical facts of life changed. Who'll go first? Awkward chat for PM with Carrie Johnson
Comments
"I would rather have my generals be lucky than able"
Biden is not Trump.
He will defend Poland.
Rule of Acquisition 34 applies, as does 35.
Energy companies are expected to do well.
https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1497305210145939464?s=20&t=6zU79TZSNhBXXR5TXygXDQ
Meanwhile in Kiev there clearly are attempts to disrupt from within the city. It was flagged as something to watch for and its certainly happening, though it appears not to much effect yet. This is a mix of prep work & target acquisition but also an attempt to cause chaos and collapse from within, easing the conventional forces approach.
Strategically more concerning is that the Russians are trying very hard to wipe the Ukrainian air force out this evening and have been launching strikes from distance on airfields. They didn't quite get the job done in days 1-2. Its imperative the Ukrainians maintain some kind of air strike capability. Unconfirmed stories have it that the Ukrainians have in turn launched ballistic missiles against a Russian airbase in the Rostov region but there is strong not enough verification of that yet.
Remaining in SWIFT allows capital flight out of the CCCP, sorry Russia.
The fact that she's saying that just shows how widespread the feeling is. The Kremlin has made a major miscalculation.
Nataliya Vasilyeva
@Nat_Vasilyeva
Footage on AP Live right now of an anti-war protest in St Petersburg. People are being arrested.
This is completely spontaneous. No one even announced those protests.
He's gone tonto, to coin a phrase.
Faults and all she was a truly great Briton.
I can’t see how this doesn’t bog down in long, protracted attrition
Russians are shelling power plant right next to me. 6 explosions.
https://twitter.com/NikaMelkozerova/status/1497284141955661827
Klitzschko posted similar news.
Make better choices.
I'm starting to feel some slight optimism. Hope I am not deluded or dulled too much by the Friday night G & T.
(Apart from the Germany bit.)
I can reveal that at least five NATO countries decided to supply “all weapons, Ukraine asks for” to the defending nation, though “it might be too late”. The supply started yesterday.
“Germany is not among them”, the senior source tells me.
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1497268944255733770
Russian users who tried to go on PornHub were presented with a message saying the content is blocked along with a Ukrainian flag and a message of support to Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1497287728911822852
Free democracies do not attack each other. That's how it works. Russian is meant to be democratic, likewise Ukraine. How much of this is hypocritical cant? - lots - but nonetheless it matters. It is a sign of First World, developed status, and an awful lot of richer Russians feel they are, or should be, part of this advanced world. Better than the heathens
Putin's aggression reduces them to the status of Genghis Khan's Mongols. Or Hitler. The Russian upper classes will not like this one bit. He has rendered them unclubbable
"Thinking about the SWIFT issue. Are we more effective by banning Russia from using it, or by keeping them in and encouraging capital flight from the Russian economy?"
They’d lose quite quickly, I think.
Just shows that any news talking point is not always as obvious as the first thoughts are. Nor as obvious as the immediate reaction down at the Dog and Duck.
Why Wasn’t Russia Cut Off From SWIFT?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-SuaO0ZSxw&
As usual the media jump on something they don't really understand and it becomes the question to every interview, why not cut off from SWIFT, why not cut off from SWIFT, as if it is a trivial obvious cut and dried decision.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/20/vladimir-putin-theresa-may-brexit-fulfil-will-of-the-people
The Russians have legitimate grievances. They're very small though. I will never knowingly buy a product ever again from those that have Putin as their head of state. Nor will I sell them anything.
Russia has loomed large over my life. All the time they've threatened me and my family. We've done everything to try to get them to not be arses, but arses they are.
There is no place for anything Russian in our world, and (sadly) no place for Russians. It and they all have to go.
Edit: Of course I mean Russian nationalism rather than the people here.
What a fucking piece of shit = Rudy Giuilani
It occurs to me you can actually estimate the price of a man's soul, by how much they accepted, to work for RT
Livingstone
Salmond
Giuliani
Galloway
Who else?
Let us name them and shame them; let them be banished thereafter
https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1497304143836454921
Maybe Yokes can comment?
Missile I Like to Fire, uses the acronym MILF
His mother was a hamster and his father smelt of elderberries.
The 111 service and the hospital both very good. Both necessary because impossible to get a GP appointment.
I dread watching the news now. Poor poor Ukraine.
And you can forget your third wife getting occasional access to the Queen's third cousin once removed because of her charitable works.
Oh, and by the way, your account is frozen.
and if its any consolation the News on Ukraine is looking a bit more positive than it was 12 hours ago.
Surprised that wasn't the original plan. Perhaps the weaponry crossing the border is proving to be a little too effective.
Something my housemaster (a major in the TA) drummed into me.
As true in civilian life as it is in the military.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1497311131450417155?s=20&t=J5VeBtxA2aNTrmUeefStFg
As I mentioned downthread too, the Metro report is misleading in its intent.
And then photos of Putin, Lavrov, Medvedev, Mishustin and Bortkinov...
https://ria.ru/20220225/oruzhie-1775187553.html
I smell the shite of Russian scum
Shame. I think he is actually a very talented actor.
1) If millions of younger Russians turn out on real Stop the War demos, it will be difficult to silence them without going the full Tiananmen on them
2) Parris may be right when he says the west should believe their own rhetoric about invading being a huge mistake
3) However many Ukrainians leave (and who can blame them) 90%+ will stay, nearly all of whom won't be killed and will live to work for a better day
4) This is the first modern war directly touching the interests of the world we ordinary UK people interact with daily. (In October 2021 Lidl announced plans to expand in Ukraine. Ukrainian HGV drivers turn up on the M6. It's as quotidien as that.) And the first war in our patch in the social media and internet age. In terms of hearts and minds Putin can't win.
Wembley arch shines in colours of Ukrainian flag in solidarity gesture
Wembley will host the Carabao Cup final between Liverpool and Chelsea on Sunday
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2022/02/25/pictured-wembley-arch-shines-colours-ukrainian-flag-solidarity/
When's the moment the political establishment - govt, opposition, SNP - faces up to reality and tells the public energy policy is a delusional disaster? And COP26 was before Ukraine when geopolitical facts of life changed. Who'll go first? Awkward chat for PM with Carrie Johnson
Vlads little helpers.