Anthony Wells making the point that the Opinium "drop" was a methodology change:
YouGov's latest VI here - and a word of warning in the thread below......
So while this latest YouGov poll shows the Labour lead falling, it isn't consist across polls.
Ultimately, we should expect to see some random variation in individual polls - just noise - the thing to look for is a consistent trend across many polls.
Today's wordle was the first I genuinely thought I might not get. Stumped after 4. Had only 2 letters in wrong places. Lucky with the Hail Mary guess on 5. Done in 6.
Labour seem to have a lost 2% of the vote to the Greens on the YouGov poll, which is probably linked with Starmer bashing the 'Stop the War Coalition'. Long-term, Starmer bashing them is a good move, but in the short-term it might well lead to Corbynites switching to the Greens. When you also factor in Partygate being out of news because of Ukraine, as well as 'rally around the government during a time of crisis' effect, that Labour's lead is a bit down probably isn't that surprising.
It happens every time, and seems to have been poor politics. It sounds like Mandelson might be back again with some of the advice ; it got no coverage whatsoever in it outlets like the Mail, where it might have been effective, and plenty in the Guardian.
Starmer has to be very careful he doesn''t go back to some of the theatrical and publicised conflicts with the left of last year, when the trend was generally downwards, otherwise it could start to eat further into his lead and momentum ( no pun intended).
It's a two-storm week: Dudley and Eunice have now been named.
It's notable that they've named Eunice before issuing an Amber warning.
The forecast for Eunice is for more severe winds on Friday (across Ireland and Northern England) than for Dudley on Wednesday night (across Scotland). It will be the greater uncertainty that has the warning at a yellow level for now.
Wildly o/t, but someone (?ydoethur) might know. Could one do Welsh as a School Certificate subject in 1928?
My guess is No.
I have just looked through my paternal grandfather's old School Leaving Certificates from 1930s. He was a fluent Welsh speaker from the Gwendraeth Valley.
Welsh is not listed, but English Language, Literature and the usual etceteras are.
At least we can clutch our blue passports while implementing the latest rules to appear from Brussels.
But it will be OK. Nobody in the UK likes truckers anyway - probably because none of them went to Eton.
"The UK Government has quietly announced the implementation of key legislation included in the European Union's new Mobility Package for road transport.
In a consultation outcome published just over a fortnight ago, The Department for Transport revealed that the UK had agreed to implement the new requirements on operator licences, as well as the rules on the posting of workers"
Anthony Wells making the point that the Opinium "drop" was a methodology change:
YouGov's latest VI here - and a word of warning in the thread below......
So while this latest YouGov poll shows the Labour lead falling, it isn't consist across polls.
Ultimately, we should expect to see some random variation in individual polls - just noise - the thing to look for is a consistent trend across many polls.
At the end of the day Starmer will be PM with a 3% lead or a 10% lead regardless, even after the boundary changes.
The difference is a 10%+ lead means he can form a minority Labour government as largest party without needing the SNP and maybe just LD confidence and supply or maybe even get a narrow Labour majority. Just a 3% lead however means the Tories could even narrowly be largest party in a hung parliament after boundary changes and Starmer would need SNP support to become PM
An exchange official said only about 25% of euro clearing at LCH is between EU counterparties, meaning coming under Brussels' regulatory purview.
Oh good. We are only losing a quarter of a vast sum.
I was worried there for a minute ....
I thought you'd be disappointed we weren't losing 100%.....
I do not really give a d*mn any longer. "We" voted to be poorer, or some such. I lost. I am sucking it up...
In that case why do you keep gleefully posting things that you think are bad news for the UK (but often aren't)?
Because I am a bad person. Why else?
Not a bad person, just a bad loser.
Possibly. One of the things about being a "loser" in any political argument is the opportunity to see that one was generally right with the passage of time. I have largely "got over" Brexit, and while I "respect (if that is not too strong a word) the result, I still get a bit of amusement (though no pleasure) in noticing that it has been one massive balls up as many of us predicted, with virtually no upside whatsoever. I particularly get amusement from the idea of Jacob Rees Mogg desperately looking for those "opportunities" that don't really exist.
Labour seem to have a lost 2% of the vote to the Greens on the YouGov poll, which is probably linked with Starmer bashing the 'Stop the War Coalition'. Long-term, Starmer bashing them is a good move, but in the short-term it might well lead to Corbynites switching to the Greens. When you also factor in Partygate being out of news because of Ukraine, as well as 'rally around the government during a time of crisis' effect, that Labour's lead is a bit down probably isn't that surprising.
It happens every time, and is stupid politics. It sounds like Mandelson is back again with the advice,; it got no coverage whatsoever in it outlets like the Mail, where it might have been effective, and plenty in the Guardian.
Starmer has to be very careful he doesn''t go back to some of the theatrical and publicised conflicts with the left of last year, when his trend was generally downwards, otherwise it could start to eat further into his lead and momentum ( no pun intended).
Its a very difficult line to first map and then walk.
On one hand you have mainstream voters who tend to be pro-our boys / patriotism. On the other hand you have idealised anti-war people who tend to be younger or embittered middle class older people.
You can't balance off both at a time like this. When political idiots like Diane Abbott is going onto zoom meetings saying NATO is the aggressor I don't think Starmer and his team have much choice other than to stamp that approach down and hard.
An exchange official said only about 25% of euro clearing at LCH is between EU counterparties, meaning coming under Brussels' regulatory purview.
Oh good. We are only losing a quarter of a vast sum.
I was worried there for a minute ....
I thought you'd be disappointed we weren't losing 100%.....
I do not really give a d*mn any longer. "We" voted to be poorer, or some such. I lost. I am sucking it up...
In that case why do you keep gleefully posting things that you think are bad news for the UK (but often aren't)?
Because I am a bad person. Why else?
Not a bad person, just a bad loser.
Maybe so, but you have to get your entertainment somewhere these days. TBF, the arrival of the inevitability of Brexit has been eclipsed by the three ring circus that is No.10 Downing St
Note Bloom saying towards the end of the thread that his prior assumptions were likely incorrect. I am still puzzled how you can get that much within-host evolution without losing transmissibility, but it appears at least for #SARSCoV2 it can happen... One of the best and most honest scientists to follow on Covid.
Labour seem to have a lost 2% of the vote to the Greens on the YouGov poll, which is probably linked with Starmer bashing the 'Stop the War Coalition'. Long-term, Starmer bashing them is a good move, but in the short-term it might well lead to Corbynites switching to the Greens. When you also factor in Partygate being out of news because of Ukraine, as well as 'rally around the government during a time of crisis' effect, that Labour's lead is a bit down probably isn't that surprising.
It happens every time, and is stupid politics. It sounds like Mandelson is back again with the advice,; it got no coverage whatsoever in it outlets like the Mail, where it might have been effective, and plenty in the Guardian.
Starmer has to be very careful he doesn''t go back to some of the theatrical and publicised conflicts with the left of last year, when his trend was generally downwards, otherwise it could start to eat further into his lead and momentum ( no pun intended).
Its a very difficult line to first map and then walk.
On one hand you have mainstream voters who tend to be pro-our boys / patriotism. On the other hand you have idealised anti-war people who tend to be younger or embittered middle class older people.
You can't balance off both at a time like this. When political idiots like Diane Abbott is going onto zoom meetings saying NATO is the aggressor I don't think Starmer and his team have much choice other than to stamp that approach down and hard.
I think this was more retrospective, though, trying to distance himself from the Corbyn years with a very pointed statement of difference, rather than by implication, or general political tone. Every time he's done that so far, it hasn't worked out terribly well for him.
An exchange official said only about 25% of euro clearing at LCH is between EU counterparties, meaning coming under Brussels' regulatory purview.
Oh good. We are only losing a quarter of a vast sum.
I was worried there for a minute ....
I thought you'd be disappointed we weren't losing 100%.....
I do not really give a d*mn any longer. "We" voted to be poorer, or some such. I lost. I am sucking it up...
In that case why do you keep gleefully posting things that you think are bad news for the UK (but often aren't)?
Because I am a bad person. Why else?
Not a bad person, just a bad loser.
Possibly. One of the things about being a "loser" in any political argument is the opportunity to see that one was generally right with the passage of time. I have largely "got over" Brexit, and while I "respect (if that is not too strong a word) the result, I still get a bit of amusement (though no pleasure) in noticing that it has been one massive balls up as many of us predicted, with virtually no upside whatsoever. I particularly get amusement from the idea of Jacob Rees Mogg desperately looking for those "opportunities" that don't really exist.
It would have been better if it were a massive balls up. Really the sum total of its effects have just been a series of petty frustrations that are as banal as the progenitors of the entire project and as stupid as the people who voted for it.
Today's wordle was the first I genuinely thought I might not get. Stumped after 4. Had only 2 letters in wrong places. Lucky with the Hail Mary guess on 5. Done in 6.
Sensible from Starmer and clearly targeted at the redwall seats he must win back to become PM.
Tory redwall seats going back to Labour plus Tory Remain seats in London going Labour and Tory Remain seats in the South going LD = Starmer PM.
Leave voting redwall seats will only go back to Labour if Starmer rules out rejoining the EU, Tory Remain seats may go Labour or LD anyway as they have never liked Boris or Brexit, they only held their nose to vote Tory again in 2019 to keep Corbyn out, they are not as negative towards Starmer
Labour seem to have a lost 2% of the vote to the Greens on the YouGov poll, which is probably linked with Starmer bashing the 'Stop the War Coalition'. Long-term, Starmer bashing them is a good move, but in the short-term it might well lead to Corbynites switching to the Greens. When you also factor in Partygate being out of news because of Ukraine, as well as 'rally around the government during a time of crisis' effect, that Labour's lead is a bit down probably isn't that surprising.
It happens every time, and is stupid politics. It sounds like Mandelson is back again with the advice,; it got no coverage whatsoever in it outlets like the Mail, where it might have been effective, and plenty in the Guardian.
Starmer has to be very careful he doesn''t go back to some of the theatrical and publicised conflicts with the left of last year, when his trend was generally downwards, otherwise it could start to eat further into his lead and momentum ( no pun intended).
Its a very difficult line to first map and then walk.
On one hand you have mainstream voters who tend to be pro-our boys / patriotism. On the other hand you have idealised anti-war people who tend to be younger or embittered middle class older people.
You can't balance off both at a time like this. When political idiots like Diane Abbott is going onto zoom meetings saying NATO is the aggressor I don't think Starmer and his team have much choice other than to stamp that approach down and hard.
I think this was more retrospective, though, trying to distance himself from the Corbyn years with a very pointed statement of difference, rather than by implication, or general political tone. Every time he's done that so far, it hasn't worked out terribly well for him.
In the short term, perhaps, but it still has to be done - otherwise, come the election, he'll find it more difficult to get a hearing.
Boris Johnson must apologise or we're going to have another dead MP on our hands. Despicable behaviour.
Starmer is very impressive in how he is handling this. The contrast is vast. The PM would not be intellectually or temperamentally capable of doing what Starmer did as DPP, and this is quite obvious. Leaving aside the issue of the political parties they represent, Starmer would be a better PM than Johnson in almost every respect.
100% agreed. And with me, perhaps because of the ghastly Trump and the almost as ghastly Johnson, it's become more about the competence and character of who leads in politics rather than what their policies are.
Of course I'm strongly in favour of certain things and against others but all of that is merely my personal opinion. Eg I think creating a high quality, strictly egalitarian education system is a virtual silver bullet for about 100 different problems which plague us. However that's just me. Loads of people disagree. Maybe they're right and I'm on a road to nowhere with it. Ditto for stuff I disagree with like tax breaks for 'wealth creators'. Plenty reckon this unlocks growth and everybody benefits. A rising tide lifts all boats bla bla. I consider that to be a swilling bucket of hogwash but so what? I might be wrong. All this stuff is interesting and one can debate it - but who the fuck cares compared to having a PM who is capable and honest and is driven by a sense of public service?
That we have the diametric opposite of such a person as PM is a terrible thing. Not purely because it leads to poor government - although it does and that's very important - but because of the message it sends to people. This, the role model aspect, is imo a much under-recognized negative aspect of having leaders like Johnson. Him being there validates and uplifts the aspects of human nature - selfishness, dishonesty, laziness, pettiness, meanness of spirit - that ought actually to be discouraged rather than aspired to and rewarded. The fact we all have these traits to varying degrees only reinforces this. Society is people, who are impressionable, and if they see an individual like Boris Johnson at the top of the tree they'll be less inclined to work on being better themselves. It's impossible to measure the precise aggregate impact of this but I strongly sense it's significant. With Trump, especially so, and in his case global.
So although I'm about as solid a Labour person as you can get, I'm even a member of the party, I can tell everybody this and mean it - if hypothetically there was a leader swap but all else stayed the same, so it's an electoral choice between a Tory Party with Tory polices led by Keir Starmer and a Labour party with Labour policies led by Boris Johnson, I would vote Tory.
Limelight Liz and her overuse of official photographers. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/feb/12/liz-truss-instagram-diplomacy-five-photos-a-day-foreign-secretary-flickr ...The foreign secretary’s new-found life through a lens has not gone unnoticed by her ministerial colleagues. It has also raised criticisms about the prolific use of official government photographers. Critics say their skills are now helping Tory leadership hopefuls show their best sides. While Truss dominates the government’s official photostream, Sunak actually has his own Treasury Flickr account, though it has only managed about 340 photographs of the chancellor since the September reshuffle that saw Truss arrive at the Foreign Office.
It is not unusual for foreign secretaries to find themselves in front of the camera. Yet some Tories regard her very public outings as a straight-forward attempt to curry favour with party members before a possible leadership election. One minister put it bluntly: “It is an ignorant way to behave.”...
Labour seem to have a lost 2% of the vote to the Greens on the YouGov poll, which is probably linked with Starmer bashing the 'Stop the War Coalition'. Long-term, Starmer bashing them is a good move, but in the short-term it might well lead to Corbynites switching to the Greens. When you also factor in Partygate being out of news because of Ukraine, as well as 'rally around the government during a time of crisis' effect, that Labour's lead is a bit down probably isn't that surprising.
It happens every time, and is stupid politics. It sounds like Mandelson is back again with the advice,; it got no coverage whatsoever in it outlets like the Mail, where it might have been effective, and plenty in the Guardian.
Starmer has to be very careful he doesn''t go back to some of the theatrical and publicised conflicts with the left of last year, when his trend was generally downwards, otherwise it could start to eat further into his lead and momentum ( no pun intended).
Its a very difficult line to first map and then walk.
On one hand you have mainstream voters who tend to be pro-our boys / patriotism. On the other hand you have idealised anti-war people who tend to be younger or embittered middle class older people.
You can't balance off both at a time like this. When political idiots like Diane Abbott is going onto zoom meetings saying NATO is the aggressor I don't think Starmer and his team have much choice other than to stamp that approach down and hard.
I think this was more retrospective, though, trying to distance himself from the Corbyn years with a very pointed statement of difference, rather than by implication, or general political tone. Every time he's done that so far it hasn't worked out terribly well for him.
Because the comments of the likes of Diane Abbott go down like a bucket of cold sick with the general public, outside a tiny clique of hard-left activists.
If Starmer sees himself as a PM-in-waiting (which he does), then he needs to deal with those in his party who see Britian as the enemy and happily parrot Putin’s propoganda.
Labour seem to have a lost 2% of the vote to the Greens on the YouGov poll, which is probably linked with Starmer bashing the 'Stop the War Coalition'. Long-term, Starmer bashing them is a good move, but in the short-term it might well lead to Corbynites switching to the Greens. When you also factor in Partygate being out of news because of Ukraine, as well as 'rally around the government during a time of crisis' effect, that Labour's lead is a bit down probably isn't that surprising.
It happens every time, and is stupid politics. It sounds like Mandelson is back again with the advice,; it got no coverage whatsoever in it outlets like the Mail, where it might have been effective, and plenty in the Guardian.
Starmer has to be very careful he doesn''t go back to some of the theatrical and publicised conflicts with the left of last year, when his trend was generally downwards, otherwise it could start to eat further into his lead and momentum ( no pun intended).
Its a very difficult line to first map and then walk.
On one hand you have mainstream voters who tend to be pro-our boys / patriotism. On the other hand you have idealised anti-war people who tend to be younger or embittered middle class older people.
You can't balance off both at a time like this. When political idiots like Diane Abbott is going onto zoom meetings saying NATO is the aggressor I don't think Starmer and his team have much choice other than to stamp that approach down and hard.
I think this was more retrospective, though, trying to distance himself from the Corbyn years with a very pointed statement of difference, rather than by implication, or general political tone. Every time he's done that so far, it hasn't worked out terribly well for him.
In the short term, perhaps, but it still has to be done - otherwise, come the election, he'll find it more difficult to get a hearing.
The main problem for him with this strategy is that these sort of moves, as last year, aren't really being heard on the right, where he might want to them to be, but mainly on the left.
He's benefitted far more from being seen as the sober, independent and prosecutorial voice from across the board on the centre and left on Partygate, than he has from being seen as the more sectarian anti-left crusader, which again and again seemed to have damaged his position in the polls last year.
Think I've managed to get the wife to agree to spend the day knitting at a London cricket match after buying yarn at one (or two) of the London yarn shops.
An exchange official said only about 25% of euro clearing at LCH is between EU counterparties, meaning coming under Brussels' regulatory purview.
Oh good. We are only losing a quarter of a vast sum.
I was worried there for a minute ....
I thought you'd be disappointed we weren't losing 100%.....
I do not really give a d*mn any longer. "We" voted to be poorer, or some such. I lost. I am sucking it up...
In that case why do you keep gleefully posting things that you think are bad news for the UK (but often aren't)?
Because I am a bad person. Why else?
Not a bad person, just a bad loser.
Possibly. One of the things about being a "loser" in any political argument is the opportunity to see that one was generally right with the passage of time. I have largely "got over" Brexit, and while I "respect (if that is not too strong a word) the result, I still get a bit of amusement (though no pleasure) in noticing that it has been one massive balls up as many of us predicted, with virtually no upside whatsoever. I particularly get amusement from the idea of Jacob Rees Mogg desperately looking for those "opportunities" that don't really exist.
It would have been better if it were a massive balls up. Really the sum total of its effects have just been a series of petty frustrations that are as banal as the progenitors of the entire project and as stupid as the people who voted for it.
I guess it depends on the definition of "massive balls up". Perhaps I could rephrase it as a "massive waste of time and effort"
Labour seem to have a lost 2% of the vote to the Greens on the YouGov poll, which is probably linked with Starmer bashing the 'Stop the War Coalition'. Long-term, Starmer bashing them is a good move, but in the short-term it might well lead to Corbynites switching to the Greens. When you also factor in Partygate being out of news because of Ukraine, as well as 'rally around the government during a time of crisis' effect, that Labour's lead is a bit down probably isn't that surprising.
It happens every time, and is stupid politics. It sounds like Mandelson is back again with the advice,; it got no coverage whatsoever in it outlets like the Mail, where it might have been effective, and plenty in the Guardian.
Starmer has to be very careful he doesn''t go back to some of the theatrical and publicised conflicts with the left of last year, when his trend was generally downwards, otherwise it could start to eat further into his lead and momentum ( no pun intended).
Its a very difficult line to first map and then walk.
On one hand you have mainstream voters who tend to be pro-our boys / patriotism. On the other hand you have idealised anti-war people who tend to be younger or embittered middle class older people.
You can't balance off both at a time like this. When political idiots like Diane Abbott is going onto zoom meetings saying NATO is the aggressor I don't think Starmer and his team have much choice other than to stamp that approach down and hard.
I think this was more retrospective, though, trying to distance himself from the Corbyn years with a very pointed statement of difference, rather than by implication, or general political tone. Every time he's done that so far, it hasn't worked out terribly well for him.
He needs to be a lot clearer - "Jeremy holds a long-standing position with the Stop the War coalition and whilst I respect his commitment I do not share their worldview. It is simply wrong to automatically side with Russia or China or whoever is a threat to our interests."
That kind of thing. The embittered middle class activists will trot off to one of the myriad "left unity" splinter cells if they haven't already. The young will flirt with the Greens but when push comes to shove and they're faced with 5 more years of the Tories they will swing late to Labour as they did in 2017.
Wildly o/t, but someone (?ydoethur) might know. Could one do Welsh as a School Certificate subject in 1928?
I don't believe so (but I may be wrong). My father who was a first language Welsh speaker had to retake his school certificate because he failed the English element at Llanelli Grammar School in 1947.
Labour seem to have a lost 2% of the vote to the Greens on the YouGov poll, which is probably linked with Starmer bashing the 'Stop the War Coalition'. Long-term, Starmer bashing them is a good move, but in the short-term it might well lead to Corbynites switching to the Greens. When you also factor in Partygate being out of news because of Ukraine, as well as 'rally around the government during a time of crisis' effect, that Labour's lead is a bit down probably isn't that surprising.
It happens every time, and is stupid politics. It sounds like Mandelson is back again with the advice,; it got no coverage whatsoever in it outlets like the Mail, where it might have been effective, and plenty in the Guardian.
Starmer has to be very careful he doesn''t go back to some of the theatrical and publicised conflicts with the left of last year, when his trend was generally downwards, otherwise it could start to eat further into his lead and momentum ( no pun intended).
Its a very difficult line to first map and then walk.
On one hand you have mainstream voters who tend to be pro-our boys / patriotism. On the other hand you have idealised anti-war people who tend to be younger or embittered middle class older people.
You can't balance off both at a time like this. When political idiots like Diane Abbott is going onto zoom meetings saying NATO is the aggressor I don't think Starmer and his team have much choice other than to stamp that approach down and hard.
I think this was more retrospective, though, trying to distance himself from the Corbyn years with a very pointed statement of difference, rather than by implication, or general political tone. Every time he's done that so far, it hasn't worked out terribly well for him.
In the short term, perhaps, but it still has to be done - otherwise, come the election, he'll find it more difficult to get a hearing.
The main problem for him with this strategy is that these sort of moves, as last year, aren't really being heard on the right, where he might want to them to be, but mainly on the left.
He's benefitted far more from being seen as the sober, independent and prosecutorial voice from across the board on the centre and left on Partygate, than he has from being seen as an anti-left crusader, which consistently seemed to have damaged his position in the polls last year.
He's rolling the pitch. Most cricket fans don't know what the pitch will be like until the first day of the Test.
Wonderful news for Johnson. Everybody is underestimating him and the Tories massively.
It is encouraging but 34% would still be the lowest Tory voteshare since 2005.
Boris has rallied the Tory core back behind him, however he would still lose the next general election even on the new Yougov and Opinium polls and Starmer would become PM in a hung parliament
Wildly o/t, but someone (?ydoethur) might know. Could one do Welsh as a School Certificate subject in 1928?
My guess is No.
I have just looked through my paternal grandfather's old School Leaving Certificates from 1930s. He was a fluent Welsh speaker from the Gwendraeth Valley.
Welsh is not listed, but English Language, Literature and the usual etceteras are.
Labour seem to have a lost 2% of the vote to the Greens on the YouGov poll, which is probably linked with Starmer bashing the 'Stop the War Coalition'. Long-term, Starmer bashing them is a good move, but in the short-term it might well lead to Corbynites switching to the Greens. When you also factor in Partygate being out of news because of Ukraine, as well as 'rally around the government during a time of crisis' effect, that Labour's lead is a bit down probably isn't that surprising.
It happens every time, and is stupid politics. It sounds like Mandelson is back again with the advice,; it got no coverage whatsoever in it outlets like the Mail, where it might have been effective, and plenty in the Guardian.
Starmer has to be very careful he doesn''t go back to some of the theatrical and publicised conflicts with the left of last year, when his trend was generally downwards, otherwise it could start to eat further into his lead and momentum ( no pun intended).
Its a very difficult line to first map and then walk.
On one hand you have mainstream voters who tend to be pro-our boys / patriotism. On the other hand you have idealised anti-war people who tend to be younger or embittered middle class older people.
You can't balance off both at a time like this. When political idiots like Diane Abbott is going onto zoom meetings saying NATO is the aggressor I don't think Starmer and his team have much choice other than to stamp that approach down and hard.
I think this was more retrospective, though, trying to distance himself from the Corbyn years with a very pointed statement of difference, rather than by implication, or general political tone. Every time he's done that so far, it hasn't worked out terribly well for him.
He needs to be a lot clearer - "Jeremy holds a long-standing position with the Stop the War coalition and whilst I respect his commitment I do not share their worldview. It is simply wrong to automatically side with Russia or China or whoever is a threat to our interests."
That kind of thing. The embittered middle class activists will trot off to one of the myriad "left unity" splinter cells if they haven't already. The young will flirt with the Greens but when push comes to shove and they're faced with 5 more years of the Tories they will swing late to Labour as they did in 2017.
I don' t really agree here. I think this will just result in the "splits" headlines that the press so love, and then the general trend away from Labour of last year up to and including the party conference season ; until Paterson, sleaze and then Partygate, where his due-process, prosecutorial stance has brought him support from both wings of the party.
Labour seem to have a lost 2% of the vote to the Greens on the YouGov poll, which is probably linked with Starmer bashing the 'Stop the War Coalition'. Long-term, Starmer bashing them is a good move, but in the short-term it might well lead to Corbynites switching to the Greens. When you also factor in Partygate being out of news because of Ukraine, as well as 'rally around the government during a time of crisis' effect, that Labour's lead is a bit down probably isn't that surprising.
It happens every time, and is stupid politics. It sounds like Mandelson is back again with the advice,; it got no coverage whatsoever in it outlets like the Mail, where it might have been effective, and plenty in the Guardian.
Starmer has to be very careful he doesn''t go back to some of the theatrical and publicised conflicts with the left of last year, when his trend was generally downwards, otherwise it could start to eat further into his lead and momentum ( no pun intended).
Its a very difficult line to first map and then walk.
On one hand you have mainstream voters who tend to be pro-our boys / patriotism. On the other hand you have idealised anti-war people who tend to be younger or embittered middle class older people.
You can't balance off both at a time like this. When political idiots like Diane Abbott is going onto zoom meetings saying NATO is the aggressor I don't think Starmer and his team have much choice other than to stamp that approach down and hard.
I’m not instinctively of the view the west is always right and Russia always wrong but, in this case, I cannot see how Russia is anything but the aggressor. I would like to see what she said, not been able to find it, but if she has said NATO is the aggressor here then I’m astounded. Not astounded that she would say it but the utter naivety.
James Heappey on five live (he seems quite impressive a performer as an aside) was saying Ukraine joining NATO was a matter for them.
Like I said, you take your entertainment where you find it these days... and recently, the vast bulk of my posts have been on the buffoon and the the sh*tshow that is govt these days.
These stories popped up in my news feed and I thought some people on here might be interested, but it seems it is more fun to have a go at me instead. I guess you have to take whatever entertainment you can find as well
Anyway, the weather here in Brussels is quite pleasant this morning so I will go for a walk before the rain comes in.
Labour seem to have a lost 2% of the vote to the Greens on the YouGov poll, which is probably linked with Starmer bashing the 'Stop the War Coalition'. Long-term, Starmer bashing them is a good move, but in the short-term it might well lead to Corbynites switching to the Greens. When you also factor in Partygate being out of news because of Ukraine, as well as 'rally around the government during a time of crisis' effect, that Labour's lead is a bit down probably isn't that surprising.
It happens every time, and is stupid politics. It sounds like Mandelson is back again with the advice,; it got no coverage whatsoever in it outlets like the Mail, where it might have been effective, and plenty in the Guardian.
Starmer has to be very careful he doesn''t go back to some of the theatrical and publicised conflicts with the left of last year, when his trend was generally downwards, otherwise it could start to eat further into his lead and momentum ( no pun intended).
Its a very difficult line to first map and then walk.
On one hand you have mainstream voters who tend to be pro-our boys / patriotism. On the other hand you have idealised anti-war people who tend to be younger or embittered middle class older people.
You can't balance off both at a time like this. When political idiots like Diane Abbott is going onto zoom meetings saying NATO is the aggressor I don't think Starmer and his team have much choice other than to stamp that approach down and hard.
I think this was more retrospective, though, trying to distance himself from the Corbyn years with a very pointed statement of difference, rather than by implication, or general political tone. Every time he's done that so far, it hasn't worked out terribly well for him.
He needs to be a lot clearer - "Jeremy holds a long-standing position with the Stop the War coalition and whilst I respect his commitment I do not share their worldview. It is simply wrong to automatically side with Russia or China or whoever is a threat to our interests."
That kind of thing. The embittered middle class activists will trot off to one of the myriad "left unity" splinter cells if they haven't already. The young will flirt with the Greens but when push comes to shove and they're faced with 5 more years of the Tories they will swing late to Labour as they did in 2017.
His analysis of STWC was absolutely spot on. It is a hypocrisy reminds me of the LACS and RSPCA who do absolutely nothing about illegal hare coursing in the countryside. Their outrage is not based on the offence or the principle, but far more to do with whether they relate or oppose the people or bodies involved.
Wildly o/t, but someone (?ydoethur) might know. Could one do Welsh as a School Certificate subject in 1928?
My guess is No.
I have just looked through my paternal grandfather's old School Leaving Certificates from 1930s. He was a fluent Welsh speaker from the Gwendraeth Valley.
Welsh is not listed, but English Language, Literature and the usual etceteras are.
Diolch. Thank you! My father is listed as having studied Welsh at Caerphilly Boys School in the late 20's, and was a member of the Urdd, the Welsh Language Youth Group, but his School Certificate makes no mention of a pass in the language.
Like I said, you take your entertainment where you find it these days... and recently, the vast bulk of my posts have been on the buffoon and the the sh*tshow that is govt these days.
These stories popped up in my news feed and I thought some people on here might be interested, but it seems it is more fun to have a go at me instead. I guess you have to take whatever entertainment you can find as well
Anyway, the weather here in Brussels is quite pleasant this morning so I will go for a walk before the rain comes in.
Enjoy your morning.
It’s pissing down in the North East of England although I managed a 2 mile run before work.
The story is relevant to labour trying to reconnect with the red wall. It’s refreshing to see Starmer not telling voters they are wrong and the party knows best.
How that helps him with the rabidly pro FBPE types I don’t know.
So for Johnson, and Johnson alone, the argument that its complicated as No 10 is his home and his workplace is true. Its not impossible to see a situation where lots of FPN's are issued, but none are to Johnson, unpalatable as that would be.
What should bring him down is the obfuscation and lies to parliament afterwards. If, and its a big if, there had been a complete fronting up as soon as this whole farrago started, then its possible it would have been a blip. But the drip of information, with ever more implausible denials, as drained all the pomp from Johnson's authority.
All this stuff is interesting and one can debate it - but who the fuck cares compared to having a PM who is capable and honest and is driven by a sense of public service?
Agreed. The other thing I would look for in a PM is a willingness to look at the evidence and reverse course on occasion. A politician doing things because they believe it benefits the country needs to close the feedback loop by looking at outcomes and adjusting accordingly. (A politician driven by ideology has less need of this, of course.)
Wrong answers provide distance and direction to correct answer. Distance is "centre to centre" - so adjacent countries aren't "zero", which contributed to my stunning performance.
There are a lot of these, and I'm not convinced that Worldle has much of a lifetime. It will be like the process that went on on Pointless learning the countries of the world. Before long they all knew where Tuvalu was located.
There'a another one called Lewdle, which may be of interest to our resident flint-chiseller, but for which I do not have the vocabulary.
So for Johnson, and Johnson alone, the argument that its complicated as No 10 is his home and his workplace is true. Its not impossible to see a situation where lots of FPN's are issued, but none are to Johnson, unpalatable as that would be.
What should bring him down is the obfuscation and lies to parliament afterwards. If, and its a big if, there had been a complete fronting up as soon as this whole farrago started, then its possible it would have been a blip. But the drip of information, with ever more implausible denials, as drained all the pomp from Johnson's authority.
Time to go...
You could not have a gathering in your own home at the time these parties took place.
So it matters not one fecking jot whether it is his home or a workplace imho.
At the end of the day Starmer will be PM with a 3% lead or a 10% lead regardless, even after the boundary changes.
The difference is a 10%+ lead means he can form a minority Labour government as largest party without needing the SNP and maybe just LD confidence and supply or maybe even get a narrow Labour majority.
Tory supporters in England who are committed unionists should therefore vote Labour, right? ;-)
An exchange official said only about 25% of euro clearing at LCH is between EU counterparties, meaning coming under Brussels' regulatory purview.
Oh good. We are only losing a quarter of a vast sum.
I was worried there for a minute ....
No, it just means it won't happen at all and European banks find themselves either locked out of the London one stop shop or opening capitalised branches in London. Unsurprisingly it's the latter.
Even if it did happen and all the EU regulated transactions transferred to Frankfurt London would still be more than twice as big. Wonder which one would enjoy economies of scale?
Economies of scope too. London has the full gamut. Other European financial centres less so.
The job market is indicative - defined skill roles, IT, CQF, ACCA etc etc are hiring like mad in London. In IT the non-finance rates have caught up with the finance. Seem to be a lot of start ups in with the big outfits. Also a lot of projects by the big banks to push back at the market share they've been losing to alt-finance sector.
Generalist managers are not so much in demand - still a number of places flattening the pyramids. Where I am, they are managing expansion by investing in process automation and redeploying (rather than firing) with the resultant increases in productivity.
Labour seem to have a lost 2% of the vote to the Greens on the YouGov poll, which is probably linked with Starmer bashing the 'Stop the War Coalition'. Long-term, Starmer bashing them is a good move, but in the short-term it might well lead to Corbynites switching to the Greens. When you also factor in Partygate being out of news because of Ukraine, as well as 'rally around the government during a time of crisis' effect, that Labour's lead is a bit down probably isn't that surprising.
It happens every time, and is stupid politics. It sounds like Mandelson is back again with the advice,; it got no coverage whatsoever in it outlets like the Mail, where it might have been effective, and plenty in the Guardian.
Starmer has to be very careful he doesn''t go back to some of the theatrical and publicised conflicts with the left of last year, when his trend was generally downwards, otherwise it could start to eat further into his lead and momentum ( no pun intended).
Its a very difficult line to first map and then walk.
On one hand you have mainstream voters who tend to be pro-our boys / patriotism. On the other hand you have idealised anti-war people who tend to be younger or embittered middle class older people.
You can't balance off both at a time like this. When political idiots like Diane Abbott is going onto zoom meetings saying NATO is the aggressor I don't think Starmer and his team have much choice other than to stamp that approach down and hard.
I’m not instinctively of the view the west is always right and Russia always wrong but, in this case, I cannot see how Russia is anything but the aggressor. I would like to see what she said, not been able to find it, but if she has said NATO is the aggressor here then I’m astounded. Not astounded that she would say it but the utter naivety.
James Heappey on five live (he seems quite impressive a performer as an aside) was saying Ukraine joining NATO was a matter for them.
Did anybody else actually listen to the STWC online meeting?
Apart from an interesting speaker who actually lived in the Ukraine, the rest was surreal.
4 weeks ago Johnson was going tomorrow 2 weeks ago is was next week now it's this year
The amount of time left is growing exponentially, like so many Covid cases. Does someone have a vaccine?
I still think it will be next week. My hair shirt of ridicule is available in the (highly possible) event that I have read all the signs wrong
Its interesting. You are not alone in predicting a rapid demise - @MoonRabbit seems similarly convinced. What signs are you seeing that suggest it? From my limited attention span, no more conservative MP's have gone public, its half term so no Parliament, and Ukraine vs Russia is taking the attention.
An exchange official said only about 25% of euro clearing at LCH is between EU counterparties, meaning coming under Brussels' regulatory purview.
Oh good. We are only losing a quarter of a vast sum.
I was worried there for a minute ....
I thought you'd be disappointed we weren't losing 100%.....
I do not really give a d*mn any longer. "We" voted to be poorer, or some such. I lost. I am sucking it up...
In that case why do you keep gleefully posting things that you think are bad news for the UK (but often aren't)?
I’m sure you can think of a constituent part of the UK about which people on here gleefully post things that they think are bad news but often aren’t. Of course I’m sure you deplore that kind of thing.
At the end of the day Starmer will be PM with a 3% lead or a 10% lead regardless, even after the boundary changes.
The difference is a 10%+ lead means he can form a minority Labour government as largest party without needing the SNP and maybe just LD confidence and supply or maybe even get a narrow Labour majority.
Tory supporters in England who are committed unionists should therefore vote Labour, right? ;-)
No, as Boris would still refuse indyref2.
However if Starmer does need SNP confidence and supply he would likely have to allow devomax and then indyref2 too
So for Johnson, and Johnson alone, the argument that its complicated as No 10 is his home and his workplace is true. Its not impossible to see a situation where lots of FPN's are issued, but none are to Johnson, unpalatable as that would be.
What should bring him down is the obfuscation and lies to parliament afterwards. If, and its a big if, there had been a complete fronting up as soon as this whole farrago started, then its possible it would have been a blip. But the drip of information, with ever more implausible denials, as drained all the pomp from Johnson's authority.
Time to go...
You could not have a gathering in your own home at the time these parties took place.
So it matters not one fecking jot whether it is his home or a workplace imho.
Utter bollx from Johnson's lawyers.
You might have been allowed occasional meetings if your home was also the centre of government operations.
So for Johnson, and Johnson alone, the argument that its complicated as No 10 is his home and his workplace is true. Its not impossible to see a situation where lots of FPN's are issued, but none are to Johnson, unpalatable as that would be.
What should bring him down is the obfuscation and lies to parliament afterwards. If, and its a big if, there had been a complete fronting up as soon as this whole farrago started, then its possible it would have been a blip. But the drip of information, with ever more implausible denials, as drained all the pomp from Johnson's authority.
Time to go...
You could not have a gathering in your own home at the time these parties took place.
So it matters not one fecking jot whether it is his home or a workplace imho.
Utter bollx from Johnson's lawyers.
AIUI the prohibition was on (a) being outside one's home; and (b) organising gatherings. If the gathering was (a) in Boris's home; and (b) not organised by him, then there may be a loophole that would leave everyone but him at the gathering liable to an FPN.
So for Johnson, and Johnson alone, the argument that its complicated as No 10 is his home and his workplace is true. Its not impossible to see a situation where lots of FPN's are issued, but none are to Johnson, unpalatable as that would be.
What should bring him down is the obfuscation and lies to parliament afterwards. If, and its a big if, there had been a complete fronting up as soon as this whole farrago started, then its possible it would have been a blip. But the drip of information, with ever more implausible denials, as drained all the pomp from Johnson's authority.
Time to go...
You could not have a gathering in your own home at the time these parties took place.
So it matters not one fecking jot whether it is his home or a workplace imho.
Utter bollx from Johnson's lawyers.
The argument is that he believed they were ALL work events, at his place of work. Now you and I may think that's bollocks, and I do, and basically I think that the No 10 staff behaved in a really poor way throughout. I'm just laying out a possible scenario for a wounded Met Police, that may get them out of a fix...
So for Johnson, and Johnson alone, the argument that its complicated as No 10 is his home and his workplace is true. Its not impossible to see a situation where lots of FPN's are issued, but none are to Johnson, unpalatable as that would be.
What should bring him down is the obfuscation and lies to parliament afterwards. If, and its a big if, there had been a complete fronting up as soon as this whole farrago started, then its possible it would have been a blip. But the drip of information, with ever more implausible denials, as drained all the pomp from Johnson's authority.
Time to go...
You could not have a gathering in your own home at the time these parties took place.
So it matters not one fecking jot whether it is his home or a workplace imho.
Utter bollx from Johnson's lawyers.
Well it does, because you could have meetings at work (although No 10 seems to have had no Covid-security measures). So he could probably explain away all the work meetings even if alcohol is involved. But not private parties in the flat.
4 weeks ago Johnson was going tomorrow 2 weeks ago is was next week now it's this year
The amount of time left is growing exponentially, like so many Covid cases. Does someone have a vaccine?
I still think it will be next week. My hair shirt of ridicule is available in the (highly possible) event that I have read all the signs wrong
Its interesting. You are not alone in predicting a rapid demise - @MoonRabbit seems similarly convinced. What signs are you seeing that suggest it? From my limited attention span, no more conservative MP's have gone public, its half term so no Parliament, and Ukraine vs Russia is taking the attention.
The Ukraine issue is what may force me to the hair shirt position, because if that blows up they will hold back. My sketchy little bit of insider info tells me that a majority of Tory MPs have had enough of him. A lot will depend on what else comes out. If more solid evidence comes out we will probably get to 54. If that happens he is doomed. He will then be fried. The only MPs that genuinely like him are the ones that need his patronage because they are so shit they are unlikely to get a ministerial post once he has gone, eg. Dorries, Mogg.
Labour seem to have a lost 2% of the vote to the Greens on the YouGov poll, which is probably linked with Starmer bashing the 'Stop the War Coalition'. Long-term, Starmer bashing them is a good move, but in the short-term it might well lead to Corbynites switching to the Greens. When you also factor in Partygate being out of news because of Ukraine, as well as 'rally around the government during a time of crisis' effect, that Labour's lead is a bit down probably isn't that surprising.
It happens every time, and is stupid politics. It sounds like Mandelson is back again with the advice,; it got no coverage whatsoever in it outlets like the Mail, where it might have been effective, and plenty in the Guardian.
Starmer has to be very careful he doesn''t go back to some of the theatrical and publicised conflicts with the left of last year, when his trend was generally downwards, otherwise it could start to eat further into his lead and momentum ( no pun intended).
Its a very difficult line to first map and then walk.
On one hand you have mainstream voters who tend to be pro-our boys / patriotism. On the other hand you have idealised anti-war people who tend to be younger or embittered middle class older people.
You can't balance off both at a time like this. When political idiots like Diane Abbott is going onto zoom meetings saying NATO is the aggressor I don't think Starmer and his team have much choice other than to stamp that approach down and hard.
I’m not instinctively of the view the west is always right and Russia always wrong but, in this case, I cannot see how Russia is anything but the aggressor. I would like to see what she said, not been able to find it, but if she has said NATO is the aggressor here then I’m astounded. Not astounded that she would say it but the utter naivety.
James Heappey on five live (he seems quite impressive a performer as an aside) was saying Ukraine joining NATO was a matter for them.
Did anybody else actually listen to the STWC online meeting?
Apart from an interesting speaker who actually lived in the Ukraine, the rest was surreal.
Were they advocating joining the Warsaw Pact and COMECON?
Boris Johnson will not meet senior figures from his own party or the SNP during his visit to Scotland, despite attempts at a charm offensive to save his premiership.
.....They don't want the UK govt to pay Scottish pensions. What they want the UK govt to do is pay them a sum equivalent to the total historic NICs from Scottish workers. That's why they are going on about "contributions" and "assets"....
The obvious counter to this is to demand that ScotGov repay the pensions and benefits historically paid to Scots from the NI Fund and the NHS funding historically provided from Scottish NICs.....
As you know, historic NICs from Scottish workers are approximately equal to the total of historic pensions and benefits paid to Scots plus the NI funding of the Scottish NHS.
Boris Johnson will not meet senior figures from his own party or the SNP during his visit to Scotland, despite attempts at a charm offensive to save his premiership.
4 weeks ago Johnson was going tomorrow 2 weeks ago is was next week now it's this year
The amount of time left is growing exponentially, like so many Covid cases. Does someone have a vaccine?
I still think it will be next week. My hair shirt of ridicule is available in the (highly possible) event that I have read all the signs wrong
Its interesting. You are not alone in predicting a rapid demise - @MoonRabbit seems similarly convinced. What signs are you seeing that suggest it? From my limited attention span, no more conservative MP's have gone public, its half term so no Parliament, and Ukraine vs Russia is taking the attention.
The Ukraine issue is what may force me to the hair shirt position, because if that blows up they will hold back. My sketchy little bit of insider info tells me that a majority of Tory MPs have had enough of him. A lot will depend on what else comes out. If more solid evidence comes out we will probably get to 54. If that happens he is doomed. He will then be fried. The only MPs that genuinely like him are the ones that need his patronage because they are so shit they are unlikely to get a ministerial post once he has gone, eg. Dorries, Mogg.
More evidence? You are having a laugh. I am sure they have had enough of the PM but that does not mean they have the guts to take him on, or even that they have confidence in the party to select a better replacement. We are stuck with him.
Today, 10,000 genomes will be sequenced, 10,000 people will be swabbed for the ONS, 300,000 people will take a PCR. Sewage will be sampled, healthcare workers tested, people quizzed about contacts.
Has the Ukrainian ambassador suggesting that Ukraine may guarantee that it will not join NATO been done? If he hasn’t gone rogue/done a Truss, that seems quite big. The Russkis have leapt upon it with alacrity.
So for Johnson, and Johnson alone, the argument that its complicated as No 10 is his home and his workplace is true. Its not impossible to see a situation where lots of FPN's are issued, but none are to Johnson, unpalatable as that would be.
What should bring him down is the obfuscation and lies to parliament afterwards. If, and its a big if, there had been a complete fronting up as soon as this whole farrago started, then its possible it would have been a blip. But the drip of information, with ever more implausible denials, as drained all the pomp from Johnson's authority.
Time to go...
You could not have a gathering in your own home at the time these parties took place.
So it matters not one fecking jot whether it is his home or a workplace imho.
Utter bollx from Johnson's lawyers.
The argument is that he believed they were ALL work events, at his place of work. Now you and I may think that's bollocks, and I do, and basically I think that the No 10 staff behaved in a really poor way throughout. I'm just laying out a possible scenario for a wounded Met Police, that may get them out of a fix...
Oh, I'm sure he'll grease his way out of it all, some how or other.
So for Johnson, and Johnson alone, the argument that its complicated as No 10 is his home and his workplace is true. Its not impossible to see a situation where lots of FPN's are issued, but none are to Johnson, unpalatable as that would be.
What should bring him down is the obfuscation and lies to parliament afterwards. If, and its a big if, there had been a complete fronting up as soon as this whole farrago started, then its possible it would have been a blip. But the drip of information, with ever more implausible denials, as drained all the pomp from Johnson's authority.
Time to go...
You could not have a gathering in your own home at the time these parties took place.
So it matters not one fecking jot whether it is his home or a workplace imho.
Utter bollx from Johnson's lawyers.
Well it does, because you could have meetings at work (although No 10 seems to have had no Covid-security measures). So he could probably explain away all the work meetings even if alcohol is involved. But not private parties in the flat.
Mixing my metaphors, I see a greased piglet kicking a can down the road.
RUSSIA'S LAWMAKERS AGREE TO SEEK PUTIN'S OPINION ON PROPOSED RESOLUTION CALLING FOR RECOGNITION OF TWO BREAKAWAY REGIONS IN EASTERN UKRAINE AS INDEPENDENT STATES - IFX
Boris Johnson will not meet senior figures from his own party or the SNP during his visit to Scotland, despite attempts at a charm offensive to save his premiership.
Has the Ukraine ambassador suggesting that Ukraine may guarantee that it will not join NATO been done? If he hasn’t gone rogue that seems quite big. The Russkis have leapt upon it with alacrity.
It's a two-storm week: Dudley and Eunice have now been named.
It's notable that they've named Eunice before issuing an Amber warning.
The forecast for Eunice is for more severe winds on Friday (across Ireland and Northern England) than for Dudley on Wednesday night (across Scotland). It will be the greater uncertainty that has the warning at a yellow level for now.
When Storm Dudley arrives it will be Tipton it down with rain.
A balanced assessment of Finland and NATO. “Due to decades-long efforts, Finland’s interoperability with the US, for example, is high, and the two countries currently aim to achieve genuine “day-zero interoperability” for operations in Northern Europe.”
Oh marvellous, tropes about trans people from Mumsnet aka Prosecco Stormfront.
Also, tropes about feminists, from The Green Party motion:
The Green Party accepts that the “Gender Critical” movements in most UK political parties have been infiltrated by hard-line extremists, who advocate for the wholesale removal of virtually all trans rights as currently enshrined in the Equality Act 2010, and routinely share platforms with those who advocate for extremist positions such as the mass sterilization of trans people. These extremists have also been linked with attacks on women’s abortion rights, misinformation designed to provoke hatred towards trans people, and have benefitted from funding from the far-right.
4 weeks ago Johnson was going tomorrow 2 weeks ago is was next week now it's this year
The amount of time left is growing exponentially, like so many Covid cases. Does someone have a vaccine?
I still think it will be next week. My hair shirt of ridicule is available in the (highly possible) event that I have read all the signs wrong
Its interesting. You are not alone in predicting a rapid demise - @MoonRabbit seems similarly convinced. What signs are you seeing that suggest it? From my limited attention span, no more conservative MP's have gone public, its half term so no Parliament, and Ukraine vs Russia is taking the attention.
The Ukraine issue is what may force me to the hair shirt position, because if that blows up they will hold back. My sketchy little bit of insider info tells me that a majority of Tory MPs have had enough of him. A lot will depend on what else comes out. If more solid evidence comes out we will probably get to 54. If that happens he is doomed. He will then be fried. The only MPs that genuinely like him are the ones that need his patronage because they are so shit they are unlikely to get a ministerial post once he has gone, eg. Dorries, Mogg.
More evidence? You are having a laugh. I am sure they have had enough of the PM but that does not mean they have the guts to take him on, or even that they have confidence in the party to select a better replacement. We are stuck with him.
They will get rid of him. Either next week, or immediately after the locals
It's a two-storm week: Dudley and Eunice have now been named.
It's notable that they've named Eunice before issuing an Amber warning.
The forecast for Eunice is for more severe winds on Friday (across Ireland and Northern England) than for Dudley on Wednesday night (across Scotland). It will be the greater uncertainty that has the warning at a yellow level for now.
When Storm Dudley arrives it will be Tipton it down with rain.
(I'll get my waterproof coat)
It'll look Black Country over Bill's mother's........
So for Johnson, and Johnson alone, the argument that its complicated as No 10 is his home and his workplace is true. Its not impossible to see a situation where lots of FPN's are issued, but none are to Johnson, unpalatable as that would be.
What should bring him down is the obfuscation and lies to parliament afterwards. If, and its a big if, there had been a complete fronting up as soon as this whole farrago started, then its possible it would have been a blip. But the drip of information, with ever more implausible denials, as drained all the pomp from Johnson's authority.
Time to go...
You could not have a gathering in your own home at the time these parties took place.
So it matters not one fecking jot whether it is his home or a workplace imho.
Utter bollx from Johnson's lawyers.
The argument is that he believed they were ALL work events, at his place of work. Now you and I may think that's bollocks, and I do, and basically I think that the No 10 staff behaved in a really poor way throughout. I'm just laying out a possible scenario for a wounded Met Police, that may get them out of a fix...
Oh, I'm sure he'll grease his way out of it all, some how or other.
Today, 10,000 genomes will be sequenced, 10,000 people will be swabbed for the ONS, 300,000 people will take a PCR. Sewage will be sampled, healthcare workers tested, people quizzed about contacts.
.....They don't want the UK govt to pay Scottish pensions. What they want the UK govt to do is pay them a sum equivalent to the total historic NICs from Scottish workers. That's why they are going on about "contributions" and "assets"....
The obvious counter to this is to demand that ScotGov repay the pensions and benefits historically paid to Scots from the NI Fund and the NHS funding historically provided from Scottish NICs.....
As you know, historic NICs from Scottish workers are approximately equal to the total of historic pensions and benefits paid to Scots plus the NI funding of the Scottish NHS.
4 weeks ago Johnson was going tomorrow 2 weeks ago is was next week now it's this year
The amount of time left is growing exponentially, like so many Covid cases. Does someone have a vaccine?
I still think it will be next week. My hair shirt of ridicule is available in the (highly possible) event that I have read all the signs wrong
Its interesting. You are not alone in predicting a rapid demise - @MoonRabbit seems similarly convinced. What signs are you seeing that suggest it? From my limited attention span, no more conservative MP's have gone public, its half term so no Parliament, and Ukraine vs Russia is taking the attention.
The Ukraine issue is what may force me to the hair shirt position, because if that blows up they will hold back. My sketchy little bit of insider info tells me that a majority of Tory MPs have had enough of him. A lot will depend on what else comes out. If more solid evidence comes out we will probably get to 54. If that happens he is doomed. He will then be fried. The only MPs that genuinely like him are the ones that need his patronage because they are so shit they are unlikely to get a ministerial post once he has gone, eg. Dorries, Mogg.
More evidence? You are having a laugh. I am sure they have had enough of the PM but that does not mean they have the guts to take him on, or even that they have confidence in the party to select a better replacement. We are stuck with him.
They will get rid of him. Either next week, or immediately after the locals
I hope you are right even though it will cost me a few bob if he does go. My expectations for the willingness of your average MP to do the right thing is pretty low, they generally just accept the path of least resistance and cower to the executive. We shall see.
Today, 10,000 genomes will be sequenced, 10,000 people will be swabbed for the ONS, 300,000 people will take a PCR. Sewage will be sampled, healthcare workers tested, people quizzed about contacts.
Labour seem to have a lost 2% of the vote to the Greens on the YouGov poll, which is probably linked with Starmer bashing the 'Stop the War Coalition'. Long-term, Starmer bashing them is a good move, but in the short-term it might well lead to Corbynites switching to the Greens. When you also factor in Partygate being out of news because of Ukraine, as well as 'rally around the government during a time of crisis' effect, that Labour's lead is a bit down probably isn't that surprising.
It happens every time, and is stupid politics. It sounds like Mandelson is back again with the advice,; it got no coverage whatsoever in it outlets like the Mail, where it might have been effective, and plenty in the Guardian.
Starmer has to be very careful he doesn''t go back to some of the theatrical and publicised conflicts with the left of last year, when his trend was generally downwards, otherwise it could start to eat further into his lead and momentum ( no pun intended).
Its a very difficult line to first map and then walk.
On one hand you have mainstream voters who tend to be pro-our boys / patriotism. On the other hand you have idealised anti-war people who tend to be younger or embittered middle class older people.
You can't balance off both at a time like this. When political idiots like Diane Abbott is going onto zoom meetings saying NATO is the aggressor I don't think Starmer and his team have much choice other than to stamp that approach down and hard.
I think this was more retrospective, though, trying to distance himself from the Corbyn years with a very pointed statement of difference, rather than by implication, or general political tone. Every time he's done that so far, it hasn't worked out terribly well for him.
He needs to be a lot clearer - "Jeremy holds a long-standing position with the Stop the War coalition and whilst I respect his commitment I do not share their worldview. It is simply wrong to automatically side with Russia or China or whoever is a threat to our interests."
That kind of thing. The embittered middle class activists will trot off to one of the myriad "left unity" splinter cells if they haven't already. The young will flirt with the Greens but when push comes to shove and they're faced with 5 more years of the Tories they will swing late to Labour as they did in 2017.
I don' t really agree here. I think this will just result in the "splits" headlines that the press so love, and then the general trend away from Labour of last year up to and including the party conference season ; until Paterson, sleaze and then Partygate, where his due-process, prosecutorial stance has brought him support from both wings of the party.
I can understand your position, but I am looking at the apparent hard shift in the polls and looking at what has changed in the news to drive it. If not Ukraine then what?
#2 Rule of Woke - anyone not woke enough is evil, literally Hitler, and doesn’t deserve to be able to speak or to work.
It is a good meme but if it were true then woke people would not be criticising other woke people for being too woke, which they are doing.
It is more a case of there are sensible and bonkers camps within both woke and the non woke. The bonkers camps in both are much smaller but also generate much more publicity.
Oh marvellous, tropes about trans people from Mumsnet aka Prosecco Stormfront.
Also, tropes about feminists, from The Green Party motion:
The Green Party accepts that the “Gender Critical” movements in most UK political parties have been infiltrated by hard-line extremists, who advocate for the wholesale removal of virtually all trans rights as currently enshrined in the Equality Act 2010, and routinely share platforms with those who advocate for extremist positions such as the mass sterilization of trans people. These extremists have also been linked with attacks on women’s abortion rights, misinformation designed to provoke hatred towards trans people, and have benefitted from funding from the far-right.
This from the same party that had Aimee Challenor as not only a parliamentary candidate but a leading light in its womens branch.
It’s no surprise. Women know your place. It’s classic demonisation of the opposition.
I’ve seen no hatred towards trans people from gender critical feminists. The majority who suffer violence do so from their male partners
4 weeks ago Johnson was going tomorrow 2 weeks ago is was next week now it's this year
The amount of time left is growing exponentially, like so many Covid cases. Does someone have a vaccine?
I still think it will be next week. My hair shirt of ridicule is available in the (highly possible) event that I have read all the signs wrong
Its interesting. You are not alone in predicting a rapid demise - @MoonRabbit seems similarly convinced. What signs are you seeing that suggest it? From my limited attention span, no more conservative MP's have gone public, its half term so no Parliament, and Ukraine vs Russia is taking the attention.
The Ukraine issue is what may force me to the hair shirt position, because if that blows up they will hold back. My sketchy little bit of insider info tells me that a majority of Tory MPs have had enough of him. A lot will depend on what else comes out. If more solid evidence comes out we will probably get to 54. If that happens he is doomed. He will then be fried. The only MPs that genuinely like him are the ones that need his patronage because they are so shit they are unlikely to get a ministerial post once he has gone, eg. Dorries, Mogg.
More evidence? You are having a laugh. I am sure they have had enough of the PM but that does not mean they have the guts to take him on, or even that they have confidence in the party to select a better replacement. We are stuck with him.
They will get rid of him. Either next week, or immediately after the locals
I hope you are right even though it will cost me a few bob if he does go. My expectations for the willingness of your average MP to do the right thing is pretty low, they generally just accept the path of least resistance and cower to the executive. We shall see.
I don't think they will get rid of him in the near future; I think he's dodged it. The Met will prevaricate, and Johnson's lawyers will dissemble and point out loopholes. He himself will stand up in the Commons and lie about being 'cleared' and, to his shame, the Speaker will let him get away with it.
I assume it's now actually properly serious with Ukraine because Sky's rolling news channel has decided it's time to actually be presenting from there.
Comments
YouGov's latest VI here - and a word of warning in the thread below......
So while this latest YouGov poll shows the Labour lead falling, it isn't consist across polls.
Ultimately, we should expect to see some random variation in individual polls - just noise - the thing to look for is a consistent trend across many polls.
Till then, just one poll.
https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1493171585595101184?s=20&t=zDeiA-TtyBFszDhbFJ6p8g
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1493141507179753473?s=20&t=zDeiA-TtyBFszDhbFJ6p8g
Starmer has to be very careful he doesn''t go back to some of the theatrical and publicised conflicts with the left of last year, when the trend was generally downwards, otherwise it could start to eat further into his lead and momentum ( no pun intended).
Of course there is a case for rejoining. He may not agree with it, but that's different.
The forecast for Eunice is for more severe winds on Friday (across Ireland and Northern England) than for Dudley on Wednesday night (across Scotland). It will be the greater uncertainty that has the warning at a yellow level for now.
I have just looked through my paternal grandfather's old School Leaving Certificates from 1930s. He was a fluent Welsh speaker from the Gwendraeth Valley.
Welsh is not listed, but English Language, Literature and the usual etceteras are.
Let's hear from @ydoethur
But it will be OK. Nobody in the UK likes truckers anyway - probably because none of them went to Eton.
"The UK Government has quietly announced the implementation of key legislation included in the European Union's new Mobility Package for road transport.
In a consultation outcome published just over a fortnight ago, The Department for Transport revealed that the UK had agreed to implement the new requirements on operator licences, as well as the rules on the posting of workers"
https://trans.info/en/mobility-package-obligation-273526
The difference is a 10%+ lead means he can form a minority Labour government as largest party without needing the SNP and maybe just LD confidence and supply or maybe even get a narrow Labour majority. Just a 3% lead however means the Tories could even narrowly be largest party in a hung parliament after boundary changes and Starmer would need SNP support to become PM
On one hand you have mainstream voters who tend to be pro-our boys / patriotism. On the other hand you have idealised anti-war people who tend to be younger or embittered middle class older people.
You can't balance off both at a time like this. When political idiots like Diane Abbott is going onto zoom meetings saying NATO is the aggressor I don't think Starmer and his team have much choice other than to stamp that approach down and hard.
https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1492974564904636416
Note Bloom saying towards the end of the thread that his prior assumptions were likely incorrect.
I am still puzzled how you can get that much within-host evolution without losing transmissibility, but it appears at least for #SARSCoV2 it can happen...
One of the best and most honest scientists to follow on Covid.
Tory redwall seats going back to Labour plus Tory Remain seats in London going Labour and Tory Remain seats in the South going LD = Starmer PM.
Leave voting redwall seats will only go back to Labour if Starmer rules out rejoining the EU, Tory Remain seats may go Labour or LD anyway as they have never liked Boris or Brexit, they only held their nose to vote Tory again in 2019 to keep Corbyn out, they are not as negative towards Starmer
Of course I'm strongly in favour of certain things and against others but all of that is merely my personal opinion. Eg I think creating a high quality, strictly egalitarian education system is a virtual silver bullet for about 100 different problems which plague us. However that's just me. Loads of people disagree. Maybe they're right and I'm on a road to nowhere with it. Ditto for stuff I disagree with like tax breaks for 'wealth creators'. Plenty reckon this unlocks growth and everybody benefits. A rising tide lifts all boats bla bla. I consider that to be a swilling bucket of hogwash but so what? I might be wrong. All this stuff is interesting and one can debate it - but who the fuck cares compared to having a PM who is capable and honest and is driven by a sense of public service?
That we have the diametric opposite of such a person as PM is a terrible thing. Not purely because it leads to poor government - although it does and that's very important - but because of the message it sends to people. This, the role model aspect, is imo a much under-recognized negative aspect of having leaders like Johnson. Him being there validates and uplifts the aspects of human nature - selfishness, dishonesty, laziness, pettiness, meanness of spirit - that ought actually to be discouraged rather than aspired to and rewarded. The fact we all have these traits to varying degrees only reinforces this. Society is people, who are impressionable, and if they see an individual like Boris Johnson at the top of the tree they'll be less inclined to work on being better themselves. It's impossible to measure the precise aggregate impact of this but I strongly sense it's significant. With Trump, especially so, and in his case global.
So although I'm about as solid a Labour person as you can get, I'm even a member of the party, I can tell everybody this and mean it - if hypothetically there was a leader swap but all else stayed the same, so it's an electoral choice between a Tory Party with Tory polices led by Keir Starmer and a Labour party with Labour policies led by Boris Johnson, I would vote Tory.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/feb/12/liz-truss-instagram-diplomacy-five-photos-a-day-foreign-secretary-flickr
...The foreign secretary’s new-found life through a lens has not gone unnoticed by her ministerial colleagues. It has also raised criticisms about the prolific use of official government photographers. Critics say their skills are now helping Tory leadership hopefuls show their best sides. While Truss dominates the government’s official photostream, Sunak actually has his own Treasury Flickr account, though it has only managed about 340 photographs of the chancellor since the September reshuffle that saw Truss arrive at the Foreign Office.
It is not unusual for foreign secretaries to find themselves in front of the camera. Yet some Tories regard her very public outings as a straight-forward attempt to curry favour with party members before a possible leadership election. One minister put it bluntly: “It is an ignorant way to behave.”...
If Starmer sees himself as a PM-in-waiting (which he does), then he needs to deal with those in his party who see Britian as the enemy and happily parrot Putin’s propoganda.
He's benefitted far more from being seen as the sober, independent and prosecutorial voice from across the board on the centre and left on Partygate, than he has from being seen as the more sectarian anti-left crusader, which again and again seemed to have damaged his position in the polls last year.
I’m old enough to remember last Tuesday when Michael Gove said a larger, more interventionist government was essential to level up the country https://twitter.com/mirrorpolitics/status/1492830603821174784
Think I've managed to get the wife to agree to spend the day knitting at a London cricket match after buying yarn at one (or two) of the London yarn shops.
Wonderful news for Johnson. Everybody is underestimating him and the Tories massively.
That kind of thing. The embittered middle class activists will trot off to one of the myriad "left unity" splinter cells if they haven't already. The young will flirt with the Greens but when push comes to shove and they're faced with 5 more years of the Tories they will swing late to Labour as they did in 2017.
* Boris Johnson told police to write to his lawyer directly rather than No 10
* He will argue attendance at events was part of working day
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a6a8be26-8d14-11ec-ab9b-59af3878ddff?shareToken=8fab203eb126607b7ab27212c84a6148
Boris has rallied the Tory core back behind him, however he would still lose the next general election even on the new Yougov and Opinium polls and Starmer would become PM in a hung parliament
James Heappey on five live (he seems quite impressive a performer as an aside) was saying Ukraine joining NATO was a matter for them.
These stories popped up in my news feed and I thought some people on here might be interested, but it seems it is more fun to have a go at me instead. I guess you have to take whatever entertainment you can find as well
Anyway, the weather here in Brussels is quite pleasant this morning so I will go for a walk before the rain comes in.
Enjoy your morning.
The story is relevant to labour trying to reconnect with the red wall. It’s refreshing to see Starmer not telling voters they are wrong and the party knows best.
How that helps him with the rabidly pro FBPE types I don’t know.
What should bring him down is the obfuscation and lies to parliament afterwards. If, and its a big if, there had been a complete fronting up as soon as this whole farrago started, then its possible it would have been a blip. But the drip of information, with ever more implausible denials, as drained all the pomp from Johnson's authority.
Time to go...
There'a another one called Lewdle, which may be of interest to our resident flint-chiseller, but for which I do not have the vocabulary.
So it matters not one fecking jot whether it is his home or a workplace imho.
Utter bollx from Johnson's lawyers.
Generalist managers are not so much in demand - still a number of places flattening the pyramids. Where I am, they are managing expansion by investing in process automation and redeploying (rather than firing) with the resultant increases in productivity.
Apart from an interesting speaker who actually lived in the Ukraine, the rest was surreal.
However if Starmer does need SNP confidence and supply he would likely have to allow devomax and then indyref2 too
It looks like YouGov is just noise, Starmer ratings up again
Boris Johnson will not meet senior figures from his own party or the SNP during his visit to Scotland, despite attempts at a charm offensive to save his premiership.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/46bf1c56-8d20-11ec-ab9b-59af3878ddff?shareToken=efaec9ceb44e19fce7c7d10aeeb60613
The obvious counter to this is to demand that ScotGov repay the pensions and benefits historically paid to Scots from the NI Fund and the NHS funding historically provided from Scottish NICs.....
As you know, historic NICs from Scottish workers are approximately equal to the total of historic pensions and benefits paid to Scots plus the NI funding of the Scottish NHS.
https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola/status/1493183584479367177?s=20&t=zDeiA-TtyBFszDhbFJ6p8g
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1493186763594084354?s=20&t=zDeiA-TtyBFszDhbFJ6p8g
Been and gone...
This is starting to remind me of France vs Germany at the start of WWI - the Germans tried blaming the French for *making them start* the war.
Alternatively, they could have tried being nice to their neighbours.
There is an attempt to purge the Green Party of England and Wales of all members who signed a declaration on women's rights. Yes, you read that correctly. https://mumsnet.com/Talk/womens_rights/4479388-green-party-proposed-conference-motion-wdi
https://twitter.com/GreenFemsUK/status/1492806956179935236?s=20&t=zDeiA-TtyBFszDhbFJ6p8g
(I'll get my waterproof coat)
#1 Rule of Woke - it’s impossible to be too woke.
#2 Rule of Woke - anyone not woke enough is evil, literally Hitler, and doesn’t deserve to be able to speak or to work.
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1493188713387597826?s=20&t=zDeiA-TtyBFszDhbFJ6p8g
The Green Party accepts that the “Gender Critical” movements in most UK political parties have been infiltrated by hard-line extremists, who advocate for the wholesale removal of virtually all trans rights as currently enshrined in the Equality Act 2010, and routinely share platforms with those who advocate for extremist positions such as the mass sterilization of trans people. These extremists have also been linked with attacks on women’s abortion rights, misinformation designed to provoke hatred towards trans people, and have benefitted from funding from the far-right.
And so, not with his MPs.
Happy to underestimate him. I know that you CCHQ bots need a job but I do wonder if you guys get drunk and then think "what have we been reduced to?"
Any other Tory PM would have quit in disgrace by now. You're defending disgrace. Which makes you all what exactly?
Mumsnet May be many things but stormfront it isnt.
It is more a case of there are sensible and bonkers camps within both woke and the non woke. The bonkers camps in both are much smaller but also generate much more publicity.
It’s no surprise. Women know your place. It’s classic demonisation of the opposition.
I’ve seen no hatred towards trans people from gender critical feminists. The majority who suffer violence do so from their male partners