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It is still odds-on that Johnson won’t last the year – politicalbetting.com
It is still odds-on that Johnson won’t last the year – politicalbetting.com
This is a market that we have not looked at for a few weeks and as can be seen from the chart the situation remains largely unchanged on the betting markets. Most of the money is going on a Johnson exit in 2022.
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"The Rams"? Who he?
Morning all - did we have an eirenic weekend on PB? I've been busy.
This morning I've been listening to France 24, the French Govt owned news station.
They are talking about "the diplomatic standoff between Russia and Ukraine".
So, the proposal for this week:
Invade and annexe Britanny.
Foment a separatist movement in Alsace, and get say 15k people killed.
Then we can have a 'Diplomatic Standoff' with Paris.
Worth reading the whole thing
What's happening to Boris Johnson's support? A thread based on a talk I gave last week
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1493135620465729537?s=20&t=zDeiA-TtyBFszDhbFJ6p8g
"Changing the PM" may not be the panacea some hope.
The point is that any investment in fracking in the UK has a limited lifetime for political reasons. That could be as short as a couple of years if Labour are the next government.
How long before production quantities of gas are produced ? You have no idea.
FPT:
F1: the McLaren apparently has pull rod suspension. And push rod suspension. One at the front, one at the back.
This is hard to copy and will either work cunningly or embugger the car, apparently.
Current odds are 26 for Norris, Ricciardo 41, McLaren 26 (Ladbrokes, oddly, Betfair has all the odds substantially shorter).
Lengthens to 29 and 46 with boost, and I've put dinky sums on. If you've got a free bet, worth considering.
I don't see Johnson going because of a Fixed Penalty notice, unless defenestrated from behind. If it were a £10k fine, that might be different. Maybe.
The precedent, if it is one, from MPs in Parliament sent to prison is now to stay to the bitter end.
The Red Wall now continues its slow return back to Labour.
The key point was the decision to play on at 4th & 1, 30 yards out with six minutes left. Most would have taken the field goal to close the gap to a single point.
Twitter seems to have liked the half time show of the ageing rappers, as today’s fortysomethings show their kids they know all the words to Dre, Snoop and Em.
Through passports and collected bags by 8.05
Got super lucky with the Heathrow Express. Back in my flat by 8.50
About one hour from landing to sitting at home
Now tell me Heathrow is not impressive!
Here's "WorlDle" - guess a country by its shape:
#Worldle #24 X/6
🟩🟩🟩🟩⬜
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟨
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟨
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟨
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟨
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟨
https://worldle.teuteuf.fr
Wrong answers provide distance and direction to correct answer. Distance is "centre to centre" - so adjacent countries aren't "zero", which contributed to my stunning performance.
I've checked the last three YouGov polls and all three show Labour picking up more support from 2019 Tories than Reform, but Goodwin simply doesn't show that data in favour of showing those who switch to Reform, and implying that the don't knows can be lumped in with them.
This is so that he can push his narrative of the Tories losing voters to their right, rather than them losing voters to their left.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=sPdLWnMy0tU
But I don't have two PhDs, so what would I know.
One side effect of all this is the sharp rise in the share of 2019 Conservative voters who have either drifted back into apathy, who now say they will not vote at all at the next election, or who have switched to Reform. The former is a much bigger group than the latter.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1493139134596136960?s=20&t=1-tpfm4rKe7IH-FNZBTGqw
..what I am fascinated by is just how different these cars are (excluding red bull and then showing the show car). All different interpretations. The Aston Martin looked glorious
If he is found guilty of an offence, then of course he should resign.
Getting the first wave of jetlag and serious tiredness. Do I try and push through to a reasonable hour of the evening? Or give up and crash for a couple of hours now?
Boris Johnson must apologise or we're going to have another dead MP on our hands. Despicable behaviour.
https://globle-game.com/
Edit: oh, and don’t forget it’s Valentine’s Day today, if you need to send flowers to anyone.
LOL.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/14/10-residents-over-100-record-breaking-sardinia-town-perdasdefogu
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eus-mcguinness-says-no-uk-clearing-access-after-june-2025-2022-02-11
The difficulty changing it is important. If they've got it right, it's a difficult-to-copy advantage. If they've screwed it up, they've hobbled their season from the off.
Latest Westminster voting intention (10-11 Feb)
Lab: 37% (-4 from 1-2 Feb)
Con: 34% (+2)
Lib Dem: 10% (n/c)
Green: 8% (+2)
SNP: 5% (n/c)
Reform UK: 4% (n/c)
The contrast is vast. The PM would not be intellectually or temperamentally capable of doing what Starmer did as DPP, and this is quite obvious.
Leaving aside the issue of the political parties they represent, Starmer would be a better PM than Johnson in almost every respect.
I am sure that everyone else will remember the lies and incompetence and I suspect that will be how Boris will go down in history - as a failure, a liar and an incompetent
Whats interesting is that the trends in parts of the red wall were there well before 2019. It didn't come from nowhere. The next election is not a done deal for anyone. For some, who voted conservative for the first time in the North, and perhaps have elected a decent MP, there may well be incumbency effects. Others may feel that 'brexit is over' and its back to business as usual. Ohers might look at Starmer and think 'oh good, another private school* posho'. Its not clear.
One thing is clear - the Conservatives really should lance the boil of the Johnson, but too many of them are calculating that he might be odious, but he might also help them keep their seat. They may be right too.
*That's the perception, not the reality. I think we agree on PB that while Starmer attended a Private School, he didn't inhale.
Did something happen while I was flying home?!
I was worried there for a minute ....
The trouble in practice is that this strategy leads to problems in its more affluent southern base, as revealed most notably by Chesham and Amersham which fell to the LDs.
https://twitter.com/pipmadeley/status/1493163116682780672?s=21
And yes I've seen Heathrow when the e-gates are down. Not pretty
with just 22% thinking him competent.
The constant mantra of his achievements is a poor technique
And that there's been a 10% drop (if from a high level) in the number of Tories now thinking Brexit was a mistake
Had no idea that the pro-Putin Stop the War Labourites were that damaging...
And they are just 3 points behind the Opposition?
Quite frankly, that is remarkable. Might be an outlier but the Opinium poll suggests not. Starmer has a long way to go to seal the deal
The EU think they're the mountain, but the financial services market has made it clear for a long time that London is. The EU can cut off their own nose as often as they like, that's not changing.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1493168798773481477?s=20&t=u9FbGWMP1pEw00dUoRuTkQ
The things to look out for are how much of the damage to Tory polling is recovered, and whether the Tories plumb new depths when there is a fresh development, or a new mistake.
France and Germany have spent decades trying to get financial services out of London, but all that’s happened is more consolidation among their own financial centres as London has got bigger.
The UK covid industrial complex is a marvel. What next? https://thetimes.co.uk/article/britain-built-the-best-covid-surveillance-system-in-the-world-what-could-it-be-used-for-next-x0zmlwrf0…
https://twitter.com/whippletom/status/1492957952478752781?s=20&t=zDeiA-TtyBFszDhbFJ6p8g
On headline voting intention behaviour, Con & Lab are pretty well matched:
2019 GE % Vote same party again:
Con: 77
Lab: 78
However, if you look at the unadjusted voting figures, a slightly different picture emerges:
2019 GE % Vote same party again:
Con: 57
Lab: 62
Don't know:
Con: 19
Lab: 13
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7wtwbh2xah/TheTimes_VI_Results_220211_w.pdf