I’ve been convinced since mid December that the RU invasion of UKR is very likely. But I recognize that a lot of people disagree (not least of all, many in UKR government — at least publicly)
It is always good to reevaluate your assumptions so let’s red team the alternatives 🧵
I think it might have been an attempt to win concessions without war at first, but the West hasn’t budged so Putin will fight rather than back down.
Olympics end Feb 20. Week of 21-28 is the one to watch
Macron seems to have given Putin what he wants at this stage: serious talks about implementing the Minsk agreement.
Writers in both Newstatesman and Telegraph in last few days have warned that this is what Putin really wants - a dysfunctional Ukr because the eastern, pro-Russia areas are in some kind of federation with rest of Ukraine.
Partygate is now so bloody boring. Is anyone - literally anyone (apart from @Scott_xP) excited by that latest photo?
The damage is done. Boris needs to go. But hurry up this is arse-achingly dull, now
Exactly my sentiments
It needs one final, breathtaking revelation, like the last few explosions of a big fireworks display. Cocaine snorting off a downing street official's back, say, or a naked conga.
Then on to more pressing matters like inflation and falling real wages.
What makes anyone think that Boris Johnson can deal effectively with inflation, falling real wages and all the other economic fundamentals about to hit the fan?
Even if he didn’t have an appalling track record on a wide range of issues, he has never shown any aptitude nor interest in the topic of economics. In fact he appears to neither know about nor care about the field. Beyond “Fuck business”, I cannot recall a single significant contribution by Johnson to economic discourse.
That contrasts with many PMs, who often appeared to be very interested in economics. Thatcher for example was always banging on about it. She clearly loved the topic: it stimulated her mind. Whatever stimulates Boris Johnson, or whatever passes for his “mind”, it is certainly not inflation or falling real wages.
I don’t think that we are going to be witnessing the downfall of Boris Johnson anytime soon (barring the Clowning Street cocaine snorting scenario you paint), so we are all about to find out just how big an economics genius Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is.
Johnson, of course, is interested in only one topic: Johnson.
The core vote needs more and more pension spending and more and more healthcare, and they don't want to pay for it. It'll be left to Sunak to deal with that problem, and we can already see from the Old Gits' Arse-Wiping Tax Health and Social Care Levy how he intends to go about that: put up taxes on earned incomes until half the entire population is dependent on food banks.
So long as the rich elderly and their heirs are sufficiently bribed, nothing else matters. The only flaw in that particular plan is the impending collapse of the NHS - driven largely by the fact that the Government visits poor conditions and, in most cases, low wages upon a pissed off and depleted workforce, who will be sorely tempted to jack it in and go to work for private hospitals, hospitals abroad, or get a stress-free shift at Aldi.
Private healthcare is in finite supply and is very expensive: the opportunities for queue jumping are limited. If a sufficient number of olds with dodgy joints find themselves joining the back of a five-year waiting list for operations, then the Government might finally be under serious threat.
They need to get everyone they possibly can out of the NHS - I would suggest a reversal of of the income tax BIK charge for private healthcare provided by employers might be a good start, and let the employer offset it against corporation tax too.
Then go on a hiring spree. Send a recruitment team out worldwide to find healthcare staff, and fast-track visas for them and their families. There will be many already in the NHS that are totally broken by the past two years, and desparately need some R&R downtime.
Oh, and a scrapping of any and all posts with words like “diversity” or “equality” in the job title.
Great idea!!
It is fortunate that Asian and African nations have no requirement to retain the medical staff they have trained at great expense.
A bit of a flyer I know, but why don't we train enough of our own staff domestically and make terms and conditions attractive enough so they are not minded to bugger off to Australia and New Zealand as soon as they can?
One issue is that healthcare professionals have a long training period; a young person who, at 16/17 decides on medicine as a career won't be in the workforce for some 10 years. It's less for nursing, pharmacy, physiotherapy and so on but still 6-7 years. And they are, and should be, encouraged to gain experience on qualification by working world-wide. Young people don't often enter these professions without some sort of wish, however vague, to 'do good'.
I'm seeing increasing signs of the war drums being rolled out in the grocery industry. Sales are contracting, prices are rising and consumers are the most pessimistic about food prices since 2013. More worrying is that the commodity prices being quoted going forward in some cases are catastrophic.
There has been enough food price inflation for people to notice, and thats despite a lot of it being absorbed by manufacturers and retailers. The next wave of inflationary pressures look more severe and there is no absorption left - prices will have to be passed on and that means people having to make some stark choices as prices go up as the money they can spend goes down.
I think the sunny optimist / amoral remaining Boris boosters don't understand just how bad April is going to be. Forget your sad attempts at boosterism, people are going to get absolutely slammed by the price of everything shooting up just as taxes go up and inflation makes them poorer.
I suspect that will kill Sunak's chances of ever being PM. His only hope lies in prising Johnson out of Number 10 and then using the change of management as an excuse for ameliorating the cost of living increases by reversing some of the tax decisions.
Sunak screwed up by not forcing a VONC last week - now by the time the election comes round the pain will be obvious (higher fuel costs, higher food costs) and then made worse as the April pay pocket arrives with less rather than more money in it.
I agree. The pain that a lot of people are going to feel will be harsh and their reaction will be visceral. Note the "loanshark chancellor" jibe by Starmer - Sunak laughed it off but it will stick as people find themselves struggling to make ends meet being told they are liable for loans to bail out BP.
Why did these people say peadophile protector to Gove when they surrounded him in October?
Perhaps ask them rather than us.
I doubt you will get a sane answer though, just the sub-QAnon stuff that is taking hold of the British Right.
It’s actually a work of Satanic genius to have lighted upon paedophilia as the g spot of the disaffected and radicalised. Even reasonable people might feel uncomfortable if accused of being insufficiently disapproving of paedophiles by not going along with these people’s conspiracy theories. C4 News had an interesting interview the other night with the folk that mobbed Starmer including Corbyn P. One youngish bloke virtually admitted it was a strategy rather than a belief - we don’t necessarily think these people are paedos but it’s a metaphor for the power that they pursue and hold (I paraphrase). Expect a lot more of this crap.
The bit that quite a lot of people in politics refuse to understand is that people were selling the peado conspiracy stuff for years. Then the big cases (Saville etc) finally got investigated. Then May opened a carefully shut floodgate - believe the victims. Which completely by accident revealed Rotherham el. al....
People in political circles like to believe that the giant peado conspiracy was disproved. But to many ordinary people Rotherham was exactly that - a vast, long running conspiracy, protected by all the power brokers.
Note that while the perpetrators are getting their just deserts, those that protected them have been completely immune to any sanction.
And the attempts at push back have been noted - remember the attempt to label a victim as racist because she wasn't happy with the daughter of one of those involved having access to the victims records?
Of course this wasn't the vast conspiracy that was wanted - didn't involve enough Tories, for a start. So the political world has kind of forgotten about it.
But it has entered the public consciousness as a metaphor for "They really, really don't care about us. And will allow *anything* to happen to us if it is convenient".
Affordability is very much a reason why they have give up so much
It's almost like falling long term rates push up the nominal value of assets.
I wonder what happens if rates need to rise?
I think that the effect will be relatively moderate so long as we continue to have 0.25% rises. Interest rate volatility was much greater in the past. And it may be again in the future of course. But an increase to 1 or 1.5% is unlikely to deflate the bubble on its own.
Just as a matter of interest, what's the highest interest rate you remember?
I remember the day I drove to WIck for a case. When I left Dundee my mortgage was 12% but by the time it arrived it was 15%. There wasn't so much talk radio in those days but I listened to the news bulletins every hour with increasing disbelief. Black Wednesday it was called. Thankfully, the interest rate came down again the next day but only to 14% as I recall. That was genuinely scary and something I remember vividly when people talk about being worried by a 0.25% increase.
Friends (and lots of other people who might normally vote Conservative) had to give their keys back to the building society. They made the sacrifices but the government showed it was for nothing. Partygate on steroids.
Partygate is now so bloody boring. Is anyone - literally anyone (apart from @Scott_xP) excited by that latest photo?
The damage is done. Boris needs to go. But hurry up this is arse-achingly dull, now
Exactly my sentiments
It needs one final, breathtaking revelation, like the last few explosions of a big fireworks display. Cocaine snorting off a downing street official's back, say, or a naked conga.
Then on to more pressing matters like inflation and falling real wages.
What makes anyone think that Boris Johnson can deal effectively with inflation, falling real wages and all the other economic fundamentals about to hit the fan?
Even if he didn’t have an appalling track record on a wide range of issues, he has never shown any aptitude nor interest in the topic of economics. In fact he appears to neither know about nor care about the field. Beyond “Fuck business”, I cannot recall a single significant contribution by Johnson to economic discourse.
That contrasts with many PMs, who often appeared to be very interested in economics. Thatcher for example was always banging on about it. She clearly loved the topic: it stimulated her mind. Whatever stimulates Boris Johnson, or whatever passes for his “mind”, it is certainly not inflation or falling real wages.
I don’t think that we are going to be witnessing the downfall of Boris Johnson anytime soon (barring the Clowning Street cocaine snorting scenario you paint), so we are all about to find out just how big an economics genius Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is.
Johnson, of course, is interested in only one topic: Johnson.
The core vote needs more and more pension spending and more and more healthcare, and they don't want to pay for it. It'll be left to Sunak to deal with that problem, and we can already see from the Old Gits' Arse-Wiping Tax Health and Social Care Levy how he intends to go about that: put up taxes on earned incomes until half the entire population is dependent on food banks.
So long as the rich elderly and their heirs are sufficiently bribed, nothing else matters. The only flaw in that particular plan is the impending collapse of the NHS - driven largely by the fact that the Government visits poor conditions and, in most cases, low wages upon a pissed off and depleted workforce, who will be sorely tempted to jack it in and go to work for private hospitals, hospitals abroad, or get a stress-free shift at Aldi.
Private healthcare is in finite supply and is very expensive: the opportunities for queue jumping are limited. If a sufficient number of olds with dodgy joints find themselves joining the back of a five-year waiting list for operations, then the Government might finally be under serious threat.
They need to get everyone they possibly can out of the NHS - I would suggest a reversal of of the income tax BIK charge for private healthcare provided by employers might be a good start, and let the employer offset it against corporation tax too.
Then go on a hiring spree. Send a recruitment team out worldwide to find healthcare staff, and fast-track visas for them and their families. There will be many already in the NHS that are totally broken by the past two years, and desparately need some R&R downtime.
Oh, and a scrapping of any and all posts with words like “diversity” or “equality” in the job title.
Great idea!!
It is fortunate that Asian and African nations have no requirement to retain the medical staff they have trained at great expense.
A bit of a flyer I know, but why don't we train enough of our own staff domestically and make terms and conditions attractive enough so they are not minded to bugger off to Australia and New Zealand as soon as they can?
For many, many years, the NHS has had projection of the numbers of staff they need for the next 5-10 years. They publish an annual report on the projections,
For all of this time, the number of places in university and training for doctors, nurses, medical technicians etc have been far below these numbers.
As an accidental byproduct of the exam screwup during COVID, some University courses are at 130%+ places.
1) When the increased number of potential doctors and nurses fall out of the other end of the sausage machine in a couple of years, will there be training places for them?
2) Will the increased number of places be maintained?
I was told that the BMA has already asked, quietly, that the number of medical degrees be returned to "normal"....
Scottish Covid powers to be extended by six months - this is interesting because if Scotland & England diverge, and England opens up, we’ll be able to see whether this works well for England or results in thousands more deaths.
Why did these people say peadophile protector to Gove when they surrounded him in October?
Perhaps ask them rather than us.
I doubt you will get a sane answer though, just the sub-QAnon stuff that is taking hold of the British Right.
It’s actually a work of Satanic genius to have lighted upon paedophilia as the g spot of the disaffected and radicalised. Even reasonable people might feel uncomfortable if accused of being insufficiently disapproving of paedophiles by not going along with these people’s conspiracy theories. C4 News had an interesting interview the other night with the folk that mobbed Starmer including Corbyn P. One youngish bloke virtually admitted it was a strategy rather than a belief - we don’t necessarily think these people are paedos but it’s a metaphor for the power that they pursue and hold (I paraphrase). Expect a lot more of this crap.
The bit that quite a lot of people in politics refuse to understand is that people were selling the peado conspiracy stuff for years. Then the big cases (Saville etc) finally got investigated. Then May opened a carefully shut floodgate - believe the victims. Which completely by accident revealed Rotherham el. al....
People in political circles like to believe that the giant peado conspiracy was disproved. But to many ordinary people Rotherham was exactly that - a vast, long running conspiracy, protected by all the power brokers.
Note that while the perpetrators are getting their just deserts, those that protected them have been completely immune to any sanction.
And the attempts at push back have been noted - remember the attempt to label a victim as racist because she wasn't happy with the daughter of one of those involved having access to the victims records?
Of course this wasn't the vast conspiracy that was wanted - didn't involve enough Tories, for a start. So the political world has kind of forgotten about it.
But it has entered the public consciousness as a metaphor for "They really, really don't care about us. And will allow *anything* to happen to us if it is convenient".
And our PM is on record as thinking investigating historic allegations of paedophilia is a '*waste of time and money'.
Sadly - is anyone surprised? The presence of the Russian Team, sorry Russian Olympic Committee, no, no connection to the Russian state, no sirree is a joke, and was at the Summer games too.
There are an awful lot of rumours going around about this story. Apparently the atmosphere in the team is about as good as it was in the US ice skating team circa 1994.
Looks like the end of the line for fracking in the UK. Cuadrilla reveals it’s been ordered to ‘plug and abandon’ its shale gas wells in Lancashire- the only two in the country
Why did these people say peadophile protector to Gove when they surrounded him in October?
I think we already dealt with that. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/08/no-10-chernobyl-boris-johnson-keir-starmer-mob ...Anyway: we go again. One calendar week after Johnson tried to wriggle off the “partygate” hook by shouting something grim about Keir Starmer and Jimmy Savile, Keir Starmer was beset in the street by a mob shouting something grim about him and Jimmy Savile. It’s important to be clear that they were shouting a load of other grim stuff, too – but I’m afraid that isn’t the get-out Downing Street seems to think it is. In fact, it just underlines why no prime minister, ever, should be feeding dangerous conspiracy theories, which run the gamut from anti-vax all the way to antisemitism, via a selection of paedophile-based nonsense and much else besides. If recent rallies and demos have taught us anything, it’s that there is, increasingly, plenty of overlap. These days, all sorts of persuasions are fellow travellers.
You need to be against ALL this stuff, elementally, not just the bits that can’t get you out of a hole in the House of Commons. It’s the same with mobs: the mob that targeted Jacob Rees-Mogg and his son a while back was just as bad as the mob that surrounded Starmer and David Lammy on Monday, as was the mob that repeatedly abused Dominic Cummings in his own street. They’re all a pox and a signpost of worse to come, and no politician who truly cares about their country should pander to them....
Affordability is very much a reason why they have give up so much
It's almost like falling long term rates push up the nominal value of assets.
I wonder what happens if rates need to rise?
I think that the effect will be relatively moderate so long as we continue to have 0.25% rises. Interest rate volatility was much greater in the past. And it may be again in the future of course. But an increase to 1 or 1.5% is unlikely to deflate the bubble on its own.
Just as a matter of interest, what's the highest interest rate you remember?
I remember the day I drove to WIck for a case. When I left Dundee my mortgage was 12% but by the time it arrived it was 15%. There wasn't so much talk radio in those days but I listened to the news bulletins every hour with increasing disbelief. Black Wednesday it was called. Thankfully, the interest rate came down again the next day but only to 14% as I recall. That was genuinely scary and something I remember vividly when people talk about being worried by a 0.25% increase.
Friends (and lots of other people who might normally vote Conservative) had to give their keys back to the building society. They made the sacrifices but the government showed it was for nothing. Partygate on steroids.
They did but it was the three years before Black Wednesday's ejection of sterling from the ERM when the job losses and repossessions happened.
The BoE base rate fell from 10% to 6% in the four months afterwards.
I’ve been convinced since mid December that the RU invasion of UKR is very likely. But I recognize that a lot of people disagree (not least of all, many in UKR government — at least publicly)
It is always good to reevaluate your assumptions so let’s red team the alternatives 🧵
I think it might have been an attempt to win concessions without war at first, but the West hasn’t budged so Putin will fight rather than back down.
Olympics end Feb 20. Week of 21-28 is the one to watch
Within that thread/analysis is a point made here previously: that Russia is too big to defend even with its massive armed forces. In moving forces away from the Far East, Putin needs to be sure China will not start sailing up to Siberia, and it is possible he has secured some sort of agreement with President Xi.
With over 50% of BTGs already deployed near Ukraine—and, most importantly, a lot of equipment (much of it moved out of the Eastern District in the far east)—Russia is not well prepared for other potential security eventualities that might arise up elsewhere https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1491636753882566657
Scottish Covid powers to be extended by six months - this is interesting because if Scotland & England diverge, and England opens up, we’ll be able to see whether this works well for England or results in thousands more deaths.
Yes, without a definite opinion on the extent of restrictions still needed (if any) I'm concerned that the relaxation is being made as part of BJ's charm offensive to backbenchers. I'd prefer it if he limited himself to reshuffles and speeches than to public health issues.
It's possible but seems unlikely that it's wise to have no restrictions whatsoever, and it would be helpful to see the opinion of the sientific advisers on this - has it been published?
Sadly - is anyone surprised? The presence of the Russian Team, sorry Russian Olympic Committee, no, no connection to the Russian state, no sirree is a joke, and was at the Summer games too.
I don't disagree.
But, if it's true, then I am still surprised considering she is a 15 year old. If proven then adults involved could be prosecuted.
It's very disappointing because figure skating has largely seemed free of doping. It's not a sport for muscle mass. Unlike athletics which I'm afraid I can no longer watch, and cycling which is equally disappointing.
But please don't think TeamGB are saints. British Cycling still has a LOT of unanswered questions as the likes of David Walsh have been keen to point out.
Affordability is very much a reason why they have give up so much
It's almost like falling long term rates push up the nominal value of assets.
I wonder what happens if rates need to rise?
I think that the effect will be relatively moderate so long as we continue to have 0.25% rises. Interest rate volatility was much greater in the past. And it may be again in the future of course. But an increase to 1 or 1.5% is unlikely to deflate the bubble on its own.
Just as a matter of interest, what's the highest interest rate you remember?
I remember the day I drove to WIck for a case. When I left Dundee my mortgage was 12% but by the time it arrived it was 15%. There wasn't so much talk radio in those days but I listened to the news bulletins every hour with increasing disbelief. Black Wednesday it was called. Thankfully, the interest rate came down again the next day but only to 14% as I recall. That was genuinely scary and something I remember vividly when people talk about being worried by a 0.25% increase.
Friends (and lots of other people who might normally vote Conservative) had to give their keys back to the building society. They made the sacrifices but the government showed it was for nothing. Partygate on steroids.
They did but it was the three years before Black Wednesday's ejection of sterling from the ERM when the job losses and repossessions happened.
The BoE base rate fell from 10% to 6% in the four months afterwards.
Yes but it was Black Wednesday which showed voters that their earlier sacrifices had all been for naught, and in the first general election afterwards, the Conservatives were removed from power. That is the point.
Sadly - is anyone surprised? The presence of the Russian Team, sorry Russian Olympic Committee, no, no connection to the Russian state, no sirree is a joke, and was at the Summer games too.
I don't disagree.
But, if it's true, then I am still surprised considering she is a 15 year old. If proven then adults involved could be prosecuted.
It's very disappointing because figure skating has largely seemed free of doping. It's not a sport for muscle mass. Unlike athletics which I'm afraid I can no longer watch, and cycling which is equally disappointing.
But please don't think TeamGB are saints. British Cycling still has a LOT of unanswered questions as the likes of David Walsh have been keen to point out.
The hideous record of USSR professional sport lives on it seems. That included giving drugs to minors, without they consent or the consent of their parents.
Entirely unsurprising given that Putin & Co. believe that the Goode Olde Days *were* good.
Looking forward to seeing everyone at the March 2nd event - it should be fun and I can confirm there will be a lot of interesting people attending. If anyone wants to bring a guest with them, please let me know (via the politics@smarkets.com email) and we will try to accommodate.
Looking forward to seeing everyone at the March 2nd event - it should be fun and I can confirm there will be a lot of interesting people attending. If anyone wants to bring a guest with them, please let me know (via the politics@smarkets.com email) and we will try to accommodate.
Should we email you using "real" names or our handles here?
Scottish Covid powers to be extended by six months - this is interesting because if Scotland & England diverge, and England opens up, we’ll be able to see whether this works well for England or results in thousands more deaths.
Yes, without a definite opinion on the extent of restrictions still needed (if any) I'm concerned that the relaxation is being made as part of BJ's charm offensive to backbenchers. I'd prefer it if he limited himself to reshuffles and speeches than to public health issues.
It's possible but seems unlikely that it's wise to have no restrictions whatsoever, and it would be helpful to see the opinion of the sientific advisers on this - has it been published?
It is not just a healthcare issue. It is an economic and social as well as healthcare issue. And the healthcare issue isn't just Covid.
And that is absolutely the government's job.
It would be helpful to see the opinion of the scientific advisors on smoking or eating Terry's Chocolate Oranges. But it shouldn't determine policy.
Partygate is now so bloody boring. Is anyone - literally anyone (apart from @Scott_xP) excited by that latest photo?
The damage is done. Boris needs to go. But hurry up this is arse-achingly dull, now
Exactly my sentiments
It needs one final, breathtaking revelation, like the last few explosions of a big fireworks display. Cocaine snorting off a downing street official's back, say, or a naked conga.
Then on to more pressing matters like inflation and falling real wages.
What makes anyone think that Boris Johnson can deal effectively with inflation, falling real wages and all the other economic fundamentals about to hit the fan?
Even if he didn’t have an appalling track record on a wide range of issues, he has never shown any aptitude nor interest in the topic of economics. In fact he appears to neither know about nor care about the field. Beyond “Fuck business”, I cannot recall a single significant contribution by Johnson to economic discourse.
That contrasts with many PMs, who often appeared to be very interested in economics. Thatcher for example was always banging on about it. She clearly loved the topic: it stimulated her mind. Whatever stimulates Boris Johnson, or whatever passes for his “mind”, it is certainly not inflation or falling real wages.
I don’t think that we are going to be witnessing the downfall of Boris Johnson anytime soon (barring the Clowning Street cocaine snorting scenario you paint), so we are all about to find out just how big an economics genius Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is.
Johnson, of course, is interested in only one topic: Johnson.
The core vote needs more and more pension spending and more and more healthcare, and they don't want to pay for it. It'll be left to Sunak to deal with that problem, and we can already see from the Old Gits' Arse-Wiping Tax Health and Social Care Levy how he intends to go about that: put up taxes on earned incomes until half the entire population is dependent on food banks.
So long as the rich elderly and their heirs are sufficiently bribed, nothing else matters. The only flaw in that particular plan is the impending collapse of the NHS - driven largely by the fact that the Government visits poor conditions and, in most cases, low wages upon a pissed off and depleted workforce, who will be sorely tempted to jack it in and go to work for private hospitals, hospitals abroad, or get a stress-free shift at Aldi.
Private healthcare is in finite supply and is very expensive: the opportunities for queue jumping are limited. If a sufficient number of olds with dodgy joints find themselves joining the back of a five-year waiting list for operations, then the Government might finally be under serious threat.
The 'depleted' NHS workforce is at its highest ever at 1.848 million:
Given the money now spent on the NHS I do wonder why it hasn't 'collapsed' many times previously:
Expenditure on the NHS has risen rapidly and consistently since it was established on 5th July 1948. In the first full year of its operation, the Government spent around £11.4 billion in today’s prices on health in the UK. In 2018/19 the figure was over ten times that amount at £152.9 billion. Growth in health expenditure has far outpaced the rise in both GDP and total public expenditure; each increased by a factor of around 4.8 over this period.
One thing is for certain is that spending on the NHS has increased at a far greater rate than either life expectancy or general health levels of the population.
Looking forward to seeing everyone at the March 2nd event - it should be fun and I can confirm there will be a lot of interesting people attending. If anyone wants to bring a guest with them, please let me know (via the politics@smarkets.com email) and we will try to accommodate.
Will there be an Albanian interpreter there by any chance as I have a very good source on global geo-politics.
I’ve been convinced since mid December that the RU invasion of UKR is very likely. But I recognize that a lot of people disagree (not least of all, many in UKR government — at least publicly)
It is always good to reevaluate your assumptions so let’s red team the alternatives 🧵
But NPXMP thinks it's a bluff. Nothing to worry about.
That is nothing compared to his eyepopping claim the other day that Taiwan has been crying wolf about China for decades and nobody believes them any more. Not sure which is more remarkable - still believing in Communism or believing it still resides in Russia or China.
Sadly - is anyone surprised? The presence of the Russian Team, sorry Russian Olympic Committee, no, no connection to the Russian state, no sirree is a joke, and was at the Summer games too.
I don't disagree.
But, if it's true, then I am still surprised considering she is a 15 year old. If proven then adults involved could be prosecuted.
It's very disappointing because figure skating has largely seemed free of doping. It's not a sport for muscle mass. Unlike athletics which I'm afraid I can no longer watch, and cycling which is equally disappointing.
But please don't think TeamGB are saints. British Cycling still has a LOT of unanswered questions as the likes of David Walsh have been keen to point out.
Looking forward to seeing everyone at the March 2nd event - it should be fun and I can confirm there will be a lot of interesting people attending. If anyone wants to bring a guest with them, please let me know (via the politics@smarkets.com email) and we will try to accommodate.
Should we email you using "real" names or our handles here?
Affordability is very much a reason why they have give up so much
It's almost like falling long term rates push up the nominal value of assets.
I wonder what happens if rates need to rise?
I think that the effect will be relatively moderate so long as we continue to have 0.25% rises. Interest rate volatility was much greater in the past. And it may be again in the future of course. But an increase to 1 or 1.5% is unlikely to deflate the bubble on its own.
Just as a matter of interest, what's the highest interest rate you remember?
I remember the day I drove to WIck for a case. When I left Dundee my mortgage was 12% but by the time it arrived it was 15%. There wasn't so much talk radio in those days but I listened to the news bulletins every hour with increasing disbelief. Black Wednesday it was called. Thankfully, the interest rate came down again the next day but only to 14% as I recall. That was genuinely scary and something I remember vividly when people talk about being worried by a 0.25% increase.
Friends (and lots of other people who might normally vote Conservative) had to give their keys back to the building society. They made the sacrifices but the government showed it was for nothing. Partygate on steroids.
They did but it was the three years before Black Wednesday's ejection of sterling from the ERM when the job losses and repossessions happened.
The BoE base rate fell from 10% to 6% in the four months afterwards.
Yes but it was Black Wednesday which showed voters that their earlier sacrifices had all been for naught, and in the first general election afterwards, the Conservatives were removed from power. That is the point.
Indeed - the slogan used was "if it isn't hurting it isn't working".
And then it was revealed that it was hurting but not working.
Looking forward to seeing everyone at the March 2nd event - it should be fun and I can confirm there will be a lot of interesting people attending. If anyone wants to bring a guest with them, please let me know (via the politics@smarkets.com email) and we will try to accommodate.
Should we email you using "real" names or our handles here?
Bytes are cheap. Send both.
You've never programmed a ZX81 with only the original memory, have you? :-)
Looking forward to seeing everyone at the March 2nd event - it should be fun and I can confirm there will be a lot of interesting people attending. If anyone wants to bring a guest with them, please let me know (via the politics@smarkets.com email) and we will try to accommodate.
Will there be an Albanian interpreter there by any chance as I have a very good source on global geo-politics.
If all the SeanTs attend, we would need to move the event to the Blind Beggar pub or the Balcony at the Iranian Embassy.
Scottish Covid powers to be extended by six months - this is interesting because if Scotland & England diverge, and England opens up, we’ll be able to see whether this works well for England or results in thousands more deaths.
Yes, without a definite opinion on the extent of restrictions still needed (if any) I'm concerned that the relaxation is being made as part of BJ's charm offensive to backbenchers. I'd prefer it if he limited himself to reshuffles and speeches than to public health issues.
It's possible but seems unlikely that it's wise to have no restrictions whatsoever, and it would be helpful to see the opinion of the sientific advisers on this - has it been published?
It is not just a healthcare issue. It is an economic and social as well as healthcare issue. And the healthcare issue isn't just Covid.
And that is absolutely the government's job.
It would be helpful to see the opinion of the scientific advisors on smoking or eating Terry's Chocolate Oranges. But it shouldn't determine policy.
All the current measures (cases, various hospital stats, deaths) are down and have been for a substantial period of time.
What restrictions are actually left and what is their effect on R?
Sadly - is anyone surprised? The presence of the Russian Team, sorry Russian Olympic Committee, no, no connection to the Russian state, no sirree is a joke, and was at the Summer games too.
I don't disagree.
But, if it's true, then I am still surprised considering she is a 15 year old. If proven then adults involved could be prosecuted.
It's very disappointing because figure skating has largely seemed free of doping. It's not a sport for muscle mass. Unlike athletics which I'm afraid I can no longer watch, and cycling which is equally disappointing.
But please don't think TeamGB are saints. British Cycling still has a LOT of unanswered questions as the likes of David Walsh have been keen to point out.
Interesting to see how many are left standing, untainted.
I semi-seriously think we should split the Olympics into clean vs take whatever the hell you want, with the penalty for doping in the clean jacked up to amputation of a limb. It's just silly to pretend the 100m record is anything other than 7.79 seconds.
"The protesters who toppled the statues of Queen Victoria and Queen Elizabeth II in central Canada last summer will not face criminal charges, authorities said last night.
The monuments, which stood outside the provincial parliament in Manitoba, were pulled down on Canada Day last July during heated protests over the country’s colonial past and historic mistreatment of indigenous people." (£)
Looking forward to seeing everyone at the March 2nd event - it should be fun and I can confirm there will be a lot of interesting people attending. If anyone wants to bring a guest with them, please let me know (via the politics@smarkets.com email) and we will try to accommodate.
Should we email you using "real" names or our handles here?
I have given my real name but said I am @malcolmg. Should buy me some respect if they do lapel badges.
Scottish Covid powers to be extended by six months - this is interesting because if Scotland & England diverge, and England opens up, we’ll be able to see whether this works well for England or results in thousands more deaths.
Yes, without a definite opinion on the extent of restrictions still needed (if any) I'm concerned that the relaxation is being made as part of BJ's charm offensive to backbenchers. I'd prefer it if he limited himself to reshuffles and speeches than to public health issues.
It's possible but seems unlikely that it's wise to have no restrictions whatsoever, and it would be helpful to see the opinion of the sientific advisers on this - has it been published?
It is not just a healthcare issue. It is an economic and social as well as healthcare issue. And the healthcare issue isn't just Covid.
And that is absolutely the government's job.
It would be helpful to see the opinion of the scientific advisors on smoking or eating Terry's Chocolate Oranges. But it shouldn't determine policy.
All the current measures (cases, various hospital stats, deaths) are down and have been for a substantial period of time.
What restrictions are actually left and what is their effect on R?
I would put supermarket mask wearing at around 70-80% and this is with guidance only (and store "policy"). Which includes, as far as I have seen, people arriving and leaving in their cars alone wearing masks. I think there will be a rump 20-30% who will continue to wear masks for some time. Perhaps NPXMP is one of those.
"It's possible but seems unlikely that it's wise to have no restrictions whatsoever" is the sentiment of someone both privileged and anxious. There will be many just like Nick I'm sure.
Looking forward to seeing everyone at the March 2nd event - it should be fun and I can confirm there will be a lot of interesting people attending. If anyone wants to bring a guest with them, please let me know (via the politics@smarkets.com email) and we will try to accommodate.
Should we email you using "real" names or our handles here?
I have given my real name but said I am @malcolmg. Should buy me some respect if they do lapel badges.
There will be a headbutting range exclusion zone around you all night so it might not be too social for you, that said.
Sadly - is anyone surprised? The presence of the Russian Team, sorry Russian Olympic Committee, no, no connection to the Russian state, no sirree is a joke, and was at the Summer games too.
I don't disagree.
But, if it's true, then I am still surprised considering she is a 15 year old. If proven then adults involved could be prosecuted.
It's very disappointing because figure skating has largely seemed free of doping. It's not a sport for muscle mass. Unlike athletics which I'm afraid I can no longer watch, and cycling which is equally disappointing.
But please don't think TeamGB are saints. British Cycling still has a LOT of unanswered questions as the likes of David Walsh have been keen to point out.
Interesting to see how many are left standing, untainted.
I semi-seriously think we should split the Olympics into clean vs take whatever the hell you want, with the penalty for doping in the clean jacked up to amputation of a limb. It's just silly to pretend the 100m record is anything other than 7.79 seconds.
The problem is a function of money and prestige that goes with the sport.
It is noticeable that the sports that don't have this problem are the ones where fame and fortune are not the result.
It is also noticeable that when fame and fortune come to a sport, the problem appears.
The Ancient Greeks knew this.
The film Chariots of Fire makes interesting viewing, to me, since all of this. The portrayal of "the powers that be" as muddy duddies and a bit racist for not liking professional sport has aged like milk.....
But please don't think TeamGB are saints. British Cycling still has a LOT of unanswered questions as the likes of David Walsh have been keen to point out.
Cycling is and always has been very, very dopey. I did loads of injectables when I competed seriously in the late 80s/early 90s.
There are guys in my cycling club doing Clen, Anavar, Trenbolone cycles and testosterone gel caps just to chase Strava KoMs!
The ones competing at a serious level are doing oxygen vector doping and, where possible, blood doping on top of the normal thermogenesis like Clen.
Just stumbled across a pretty good substack blog page on politics and current affairs. Never heard of the writer before. Has anyone else been reading this? Doesn't seem particularly partisan.
Looking forward to seeing everyone at the March 2nd event - it should be fun and I can confirm there will be a lot of interesting people attending. If anyone wants to bring a guest with them, please let me know (via the politics@smarkets.com email) and we will try to accommodate.
Should we email you using "real" names or our handles here?
I have given my real name but said I am @malcolmg. Should buy me some respect if they do lapel badges.
You will be asked to prove your identity by swearing and drinking some cash strength turnip juice on the door.
Scottish Covid powers to be extended by six months - this is interesting because if Scotland & England diverge, and England opens up, we’ll be able to see whether this works well for England or results in thousands more deaths.
Yes, without a definite opinion on the extent of restrictions still needed (if any) I'm concerned that the relaxation is being made as part of BJ's charm offensive to backbenchers. I'd prefer it if he limited himself to reshuffles and speeches than to public health issues.
It's possible but seems unlikely that it's wise to have no restrictions whatsoever, and it would be helpful to see the opinion of the sientific advisers on this - has it been published?
It is not just a healthcare issue. It is an economic and social as well as healthcare issue. And the healthcare issue isn't just Covid.
And that is absolutely the government's job.
It would be helpful to see the opinion of the scientific advisors on smoking or eating Terry's Chocolate Oranges. But it shouldn't determine policy.
All the current measures (cases, various hospital stats, deaths) are down and have been for a substantial period of time.
What restrictions are actually left and what is their effect on R?
I would put supermarket mask wearing at around 70-80% and this is with guidance only (and store "policy"). Which includes, as far as I have seen, people arriving and leaving in their cars alone wearing masks. I think there will be a rump 20-30% who will continue to wear masks for some time. Perhaps NPXMP is one of those.
"It's possible but seems unlikely that it's wise to have no restrictions whatsoever" is the sentiment of someone both privileged and anxious. There will be many just like Nick I'm sure.
Mask wearing in shops seems to have pretty much ended in Yorkshire in my experience - it was only about 50% even before the restrictions ended.
Looking forward to seeing everyone at the March 2nd event - it should be fun and I can confirm there will be a lot of interesting people attending. If anyone wants to bring a guest with them, please let me know (via the politics@smarkets.com email) and we will try to accommodate.
Should we email you using "real" names or our handles here?
Bytes are cheap. Send both.
You've never programmed a ZX81 with only the original memory, have you? :-)
We once had a programmer from that vintage who we found religiously going through the source tree and deleting spaces at the ends of lines.
Scottish Covid powers to be extended by six months - this is interesting because if Scotland & England diverge, and England opens up, we’ll be able to see whether this works well for England or results in thousands more deaths.
Yes, without a definite opinion on the extent of restrictions still needed (if any) I'm concerned that the relaxation is being made as part of BJ's charm offensive to backbenchers. I'd prefer it if he limited himself to reshuffles and speeches than to public health issues.
It's possible but seems unlikely that it's wise to have no restrictions whatsoever, and it would be helpful to see the opinion of the sientific advisers on this - has it been published?
I doubt Johnson's travails led the Guernsey government to remove all* restrictions from a week today.
Fraser Nelson has some thoughts on SAGE scenarios:
A few quotes today from SAGE advisers saying that they weren't consulted over decision to abolish restrictions (so no charts predicting surge in deaths, etc).
Here's what SAGE said about summer reopening last year. Like Omicron, every scenario was wrong.
Why did these people say peadophile protector to Gove when they surrounded him in October?
I think we already dealt with that. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/08/no-10-chernobyl-boris-johnson-keir-starmer-mob ...Anyway: we go again. One calendar week after Johnson tried to wriggle off the “partygate” hook by shouting something grim about Keir Starmer and Jimmy Savile, Keir Starmer was beset in the street by a mob shouting something grim about him and Jimmy Savile. It’s important to be clear that they were shouting a load of other grim stuff, too – but I’m afraid that isn’t the get-out Downing Street seems to think it is. In fact, it just underlines why no prime minister, ever, should be feeding dangerous conspiracy theories, which run the gamut from anti-vax all the way to antisemitism, via a selection of paedophile-based nonsense and much else besides. If recent rallies and demos have taught us anything, it’s that there is, increasingly, plenty of overlap. These days, all sorts of persuasions are fellow travellers.
You need to be against ALL this stuff, elementally, not just the bits that can’t get you out of a hole in the House of Commons. It’s the same with mobs: the mob that targeted Jacob Rees-Mogg and his son a while back was just as bad as the mob that surrounded Starmer and David Lammy on Monday, as was the mob that repeatedly abused Dominic Cummings in his own street. They’re all a pox and a signpost of worse to come, and no politician who truly cares about their country should pander to them....
That only works, though, if there was outrage at the time it happened to Gove.
Sadly - is anyone surprised? The presence of the Russian Team, sorry Russian Olympic Committee, no, no connection to the Russian state, no sirree is a joke, and was at the Summer games too.
I don't disagree.
But, if it's true, then I am still surprised considering she is a 15 year old. If proven then adults involved could be prosecuted.
It's very disappointing because figure skating has largely seemed free of doping. It's not a sport for muscle mass. Unlike athletics which I'm afraid I can no longer watch, and cycling which is equally disappointing.
But please don't think TeamGB are saints. British Cycling still has a LOT of unanswered questions as the likes of David Walsh have been keen to point out.
Interesting to see how many are left standing, untainted.
I semi-seriously think we should split the Olympics into clean vs take whatever the hell you want, with the penalty for doping in the clean jacked up to amputation of a limb. It's just silly to pretend the 100m record is anything other than 7.79 seconds.
The irony is that doping to an extent levels the playing field away from those who can afford the expensive coaching (human and equipment) infrastructure. Or at least it would if it did not have to be so sophisticated these days. It is also why I smile at gold medallists like Sky the skateboarder learning new moves from Youtube (as she commuted between Japan and America).
Scottish Covid powers to be extended by six months - this is interesting because if Scotland & England diverge, and England opens up, we’ll be able to see whether this works well for England or results in thousands more deaths.
Yes, without a definite opinion on the extent of restrictions still needed (if any) I'm concerned that the relaxation is being made as part of BJ's charm offensive to backbenchers. I'd prefer it if he limited himself to reshuffles and speeches than to public health issues.
It's possible but seems unlikely that it's wise to have no restrictions whatsoever, and it would be helpful to see the opinion of the sientific advisers on this - has it been published?
It is not just a healthcare issue. It is an economic and social as well as healthcare issue. And the healthcare issue isn't just Covid.
And that is absolutely the government's job.
It would be helpful to see the opinion of the scientific advisors on smoking or eating Terry's Chocolate Oranges. But it shouldn't determine policy.
All the current measures (cases, various hospital stats, deaths) are down and have been for a substantial period of time.
What restrictions are actually left and what is their effect on R?
I would put supermarket mask wearing at around 70-80% and this is with guidance only (and store "policy"). Which includes, as far as I have seen, people arriving and leaving in their cars alone wearing masks. I think there will be a rump 20-30% who will continue to wear masks for some time. Perhaps NPXMP is one of those.
"It's possible but seems unlikely that it's wise to have no restrictions whatsoever" is the sentiment of someone both privileged and anxious. There will be many just like Nick I'm sure.
Mask wearing in shops seems to have pretty much ended in Yorkshire in my experience - it was only about 50% even before the restrictions ended.
Incidentally, note the spike in R for Wales and Scotland in my graph above - anyone have ideas on why?
Sadly - is anyone surprised? The presence of the Russian Team, sorry Russian Olympic Committee, no, no connection to the Russian state, no sirree is a joke, and was at the Summer games too.
I don't disagree.
But, if it's true, then I am still surprised considering she is a 15 year old. If proven then adults involved could be prosecuted.
It's very disappointing because figure skating has largely seemed free of doping. It's not a sport for muscle mass. Unlike athletics which I'm afraid I can no longer watch, and cycling which is equally disappointing.
But please don't think TeamGB are saints. British Cycling still has a LOT of unanswered questions as the likes of David Walsh have been keen to point out.
Interesting to see how many are left standing, untainted.
I semi-seriously think we should split the Olympics into clean vs take whatever the hell you want, with the penalty for doping in the clean jacked up to amputation of a limb. It's just silly to pretend the 100m record is anything other than 7.79 seconds.
That was the late ‘80s, before the IOC got better at detection. It led to things like the women’s 100m winner dying of a heart attack aged 38.
But at least her dodgy-as-hell world record still stands today. That record is so dodgy, I wouldn’t be surprised if someone was to go back to that track today and find it’s only 95m long.
Scottish Covid powers to be extended by six months - this is interesting because if Scotland & England diverge, and England opens up, we’ll be able to see whether this works well for England or results in thousands more deaths.
Yes, without a definite opinion on the extent of restrictions still needed (if any) I'm concerned that the relaxation is being made as part of BJ's charm offensive to backbenchers. I'd prefer it if he limited himself to reshuffles and speeches than to public health issues.
It's possible but seems unlikely that it's wise to have no restrictions whatsoever, and it would be helpful to see the opinion of the sientific advisers on this - has it been published?
It is not just a healthcare issue. It is an economic and social as well as healthcare issue. And the healthcare issue isn't just Covid.
And that is absolutely the government's job.
It would be helpful to see the opinion of the scientific advisors on smoking or eating Terry's Chocolate Oranges. But it shouldn't determine policy.
All the current measures (cases, various hospital stats, deaths) are down and have been for a substantial period of time.
What restrictions are actually left and what is their effect on R?
I would put supermarket mask wearing at around 70-80% and this is with guidance only (and store "policy"). Which includes, as far as I have seen, people arriving and leaving in their cars alone wearing masks. I think there will be a rump 20-30% who will continue to wear masks for some time. Perhaps NPXMP is one of those.
"It's possible but seems unlikely that it's wise to have no restrictions whatsoever" is the sentiment of someone both privileged and anxious. There will be many just like Nick I'm sure.
Mask wearing in shops seems to have pretty much ended in Yorkshire in my experience - it was only about 50% even before the restrictions ended.
Mask-wearing at Sainsbury's on Monday and on the bus yesterday remained at a high level.
Scottish Covid powers to be extended by six months - this is interesting because if Scotland & England diverge, and England opens up, we’ll be able to see whether this works well for England or results in thousands more deaths.
Yes, without a definite opinion on the extent of restrictions still needed (if any) I'm concerned that the relaxation is being made as part of BJ's charm offensive to backbenchers. I'd prefer it if he limited himself to reshuffles and speeches than to public health issues.
It's possible but seems unlikely that it's wise to have no restrictions whatsoever, and it would be helpful to see the opinion of the sientific advisers on this - has it been published?
I doubt Johnson's travails led the Guernsey government to remove all* restrictions from a week today.
Fraser Nelson has some thoughts on SAGE scenarios:
A few quotes today from SAGE advisers saying that they weren't consulted over decision to abolish restrictions (so no charts predicting surge in deaths, etc).
Here's what SAGE said about summer reopening last year. Like Omicron, every scenario was wrong.
I think it's entirely wise to have no restrictions whatsoever. That should be the default. And there is nothing to suggest what we have now is worse than bad flu seasons in previous years.
And I think given their record over the last two years, the views of sage are entirely irrelevant.
Looking forward to seeing everyone at the March 2nd event - it should be fun and I can confirm there will be a lot of interesting people attending. If anyone wants to bring a guest with them, please let me know (via the politics@smarkets.com email) and we will try to accommodate.
Should we email you using "real" names or our handles here?
Bytes are cheap. Send both.
You've never programmed a ZX81 with only the original memory, have you? :-)
We once had a programmer from that vintage who we found religiously going through the source tree and deleting spaces at the ends of lines.
On a serious note, I shocked some infrastructure people by a demo of what switching to Alpine in the Docker containers would do to resource usage....
Always good to think about what you get for the memory, CPU and disc space you "spend".
Sadly - is anyone surprised? The presence of the Russian Team, sorry Russian Olympic Committee, no, no connection to the Russian state, no sirree is a joke, and was at the Summer games too.
I don't disagree.
But, if it's true, then I am still surprised considering she is a 15 year old. If proven then adults involved could be prosecuted.
It's very disappointing because figure skating has largely seemed free of doping. It's not a sport for muscle mass. Unlike athletics which I'm afraid I can no longer watch, and cycling which is equally disappointing.
But please don't think TeamGB are saints. British Cycling still has a LOT of unanswered questions as the likes of David Walsh have been keen to point out.
Interesting to see how many are left standing, untainted.
I semi-seriously think we should split the Olympics into clean vs take whatever the hell you want, with the penalty for doping in the clean jacked up to amputation of a limb. It's just silly to pretend the 100m record is anything other than 7.79 seconds.
The problem is a function of money and prestige that goes with the sport.
It is noticeable that the sports that don't have this problem are the ones where fame and fortune are not the result.
It is also noticeable that when fame and fortune come to a sport, the problem appears.
The Ancient Greeks knew this.
The film Chariots of Fire makes interesting viewing, to me, since all of this. The portrayal of "the powers that be" as muddy duddies and a bit racist for not liking professional sport has aged like milk.....
You'd be surprised. 3 or 4 years ago I did the Atlantic Rally for Cruisers - 200 yachts sailing Canaries - caribbean. Most are just cruising, about 25 are in the "racing" division. It's completely amateur, no serious yacht taking part, 50p prize money, dog with the waggiest tail stuff. Nonetheless one owner begged his crew, just before reaching St Lucia, to go along with his claim they hadn't motored at all when they had. They had had 2 weeks to decide how much they disliked him and told him to piss off. St Lucia is not a large island, and there was a dozen drunk yachties telling this story in every bar on the island to anyone who would listen
Scottish Covid powers to be extended by six months - this is interesting because if Scotland & England diverge, and England opens up, we’ll be able to see whether this works well for England or results in thousands more deaths.
Yes, without a definite opinion on the extent of restrictions still needed (if any) I'm concerned that the relaxation is being made as part of BJ's charm offensive to backbenchers. I'd prefer it if he limited himself to reshuffles and speeches than to public health issues.
It's possible but seems unlikely that it's wise to have no restrictions whatsoever, and it would be helpful to see the opinion of the sientific advisers on this - has it been published?
I doubt Johnson's travails led the Guernsey government to remove all* restrictions from a week today.
Fraser Nelson has some thoughts on SAGE scenarios:
A few quotes today from SAGE advisers saying that they weren't consulted over decision to abolish restrictions (so no charts predicting surge in deaths, etc).
Here's what SAGE said about summer reopening last year. Like Omicron, every scenario was wrong.
I think the people in this country have had enough of experts from organisations with acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong.
Has anyone thought of a PB North gathering? Taz, Gallowgate, Pulpstar (?), Cyclefree, eek, cookie, Mr.Ed (?), Another Richard, TSE, Barty, even Big G, maybe, flatlander, etc...? Apologies to anyone I have missed. BJO too? And Valiant.
Has anyone thought of a PB North gathering? Taz, Gallowgate, Pulpstar (?), Cyclefree, eek, cookie, Mr.Ed (?), Another Richard, TSE, Barty, even Big G, maybe, flatlander, etc...? Apologies to anyone I have missed. BJO too? And Valiant.
Great idea.
I would be up for a meeting in the north of England too. As I say in 2016 I went to Manchester but London is just too far.
Scott, have you never had an illness in your life up to now? Never had flu, or a bad cold. Its common to have illness, typically 4 times a year for colds. Sometimes you can have fevers.
Its time to trust the public, not legally mandate people isolating.
Why did these people say peadophile protector to Gove when they surrounded him in October?
I think we already dealt with that. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/08/no-10-chernobyl-boris-johnson-keir-starmer-mob ...Anyway: we go again. One calendar week after Johnson tried to wriggle off the “partygate” hook by shouting something grim about Keir Starmer and Jimmy Savile, Keir Starmer was beset in the street by a mob shouting something grim about him and Jimmy Savile. It’s important to be clear that they were shouting a load of other grim stuff, too – but I’m afraid that isn’t the get-out Downing Street seems to think it is. In fact, it just underlines why no prime minister, ever, should be feeding dangerous conspiracy theories, which run the gamut from anti-vax all the way to antisemitism, via a selection of paedophile-based nonsense and much else besides. If recent rallies and demos have taught us anything, it’s that there is, increasingly, plenty of overlap. These days, all sorts of persuasions are fellow travellers.
You need to be against ALL this stuff, elementally, not just the bits that can’t get you out of a hole in the House of Commons. It’s the same with mobs: the mob that targeted Jacob Rees-Mogg and his son a while back was just as bad as the mob that surrounded Starmer and David Lammy on Monday, as was the mob that repeatedly abused Dominic Cummings in his own street. They’re all a pox and a signpost of worse to come, and no politician who truly cares about their country should pander to them....
That only works, though, if there was outrage at the time it happened to Gove.
Which there wasn't.
tbf I do vaguely recall Gove making the news. Where there is a problem imo is the discrepancy between probably harmless lone drunk halfwits putting their arms round Professor Chris Whitty, and hostile mobs. The first was gaoled; the second for the most part can go about their business, even if there are one or two token arrests.
ETA damn! Sucked into whataboutery. We must not forget Boris's role in spreading dangerous conspiracy theories to rile up the men with pitch forks.
Nothing startling about that. The cold or flu which Covid now is akin to post vaccines causes the same damned thing too. No requirement to have restrictions for them either.
The fact he didn't need intubation is because the vaccines work. Stop spreading antivaxx myths to justify continuing restrictions.
A tweet alleging that the photo of Boris + tinsel + champagne bottle was faked: photoshopped
I am skeptical. The bottle does look a tiny bit suspect, but the tinsel? Maybe the first photo is the fake?
DYOR
Edit: actually I am sure that it is the more innocent pic which is the deceptive one. Which makes it all murkier. Dom Cummings eking out the evidence slooooooooowly?
Has anyone thought of a PB North gathering? Taz, Gallowgate, Pulpstar (?), Cyclefree, eek, cookie, Mr.Ed (?), Another Richard, TSE, Barty, even Big G, maybe, flatlander, etc...? Apologies to anyone I have missed. BJO too? And Valiant.
Great idea.
I would be up for a meeting in the north of England too. As I say in 2016 I went to Manchester but London is just too far.
Do London and Millom on the same night, with a video link between them so everyone can introduce themselves to each other.
Has anyone thought of a PB North gathering? Taz, Gallowgate, Pulpstar (?), Cyclefree, eek, cookie, Mr.Ed (?), Another Richard, TSE, Barty, even Big G, maybe, flatlander, etc...? Apologies to anyone I have missed. BJO too? And Valiant.
Great idea.
Says something about the state of the union that no Scottish posters appear in that list. We all think North = North of England and regard the border as almost unnegotiable.
Has anyone thought of a PB North gathering? Taz, Gallowgate, Pulpstar (?), Cyclefree, eek, cookie, Mr.Ed (?), Another Richard, TSE, Barty, even Big G, maybe, flatlander, etc...? Apologies to anyone I have missed. BJO too? And Valiant.
A tweet alleging that the photo of Boris + tinsel + champagne bottle was faked: photoshopped
I am skeptical. The bottle does look a tiny bit suspect, but the tinsel? Maybe the first photo is the fake?
DYOR
Edit: actually I am sure that it is the more innocent pic which is the deceptive one. Which makes it all murkier. Dom Cummings eking out the evidence slooooooooowly?
Ooh if that was faked, which the Mirror have form for, then that is serious.
Interesting comment on that link, if the bottle were genuine then where are the glasses? A bit weird to have an open bottle but no glasses on the table. 🥂
Sadly - is anyone surprised? The presence of the Russian Team, sorry Russian Olympic Committee, no, no connection to the Russian state, no sirree is a joke, and was at the Summer games too.
I don't disagree.
But, if it's true, then I am still surprised considering she is a 15 year old. If proven then adults involved could be prosecuted.
It's very disappointing because figure skating has largely seemed free of doping. It's not a sport for muscle mass. Unlike athletics which I'm afraid I can no longer watch, and cycling which is equally disappointing.
But please don't think TeamGB are saints. British Cycling still has a LOT of unanswered questions as the likes of David Walsh have been keen to point out.
Interesting to see how many are left standing, untainted.
I semi-seriously think we should split the Olympics into clean vs take whatever the hell you want, with the penalty for doping in the clean jacked up to amputation of a limb. It's just silly to pretend the 100m record is anything other than 7.79 seconds.
The problem is a function of money and prestige that goes with the sport.
It is noticeable that the sports that don't have this problem are the ones where fame and fortune are not the result.
It is also noticeable that when fame and fortune come to a sport, the problem appears.
The Ancient Greeks knew this.
The film Chariots of Fire makes interesting viewing, to me, since all of this. The portrayal of "the powers that be" as muddy duddies and a bit racist for not liking professional sport has aged like milk.....
You'd be surprised. 3 or 4 years ago I did the Atlantic Rally for Cruisers - 200 yachts sailing Canaries - caribbean. Most are just cruising, about 25 are in the "racing" division. It's completely amateur, no serious yacht taking part, 50p prize money, dog with the waggiest tail stuff. Nonetheless one owner begged his crew, just before reaching St Lucia, to go along with his claim they hadn't motored at all when they had. They had had 2 weeks to decide how much they disliked him and told him to piss off. St Lucia is not a large island, and there was a dozen drunk yachties telling this story in every bar on the island to anyone who would listen
I don't think I would be surprised. The reason that one plonker got his just deserts was related (probably) to the fact that there was only sporting pride involved.
Imagine if everyone on that boat would be getting 7 figures for the lie....
Scott, have you never had an illness in your life up to now? Never had flu, or a bad cold.
Never one that left me struggling to breathe, with a temperature of 39.5 degrees and nearly intubated in hospital, no.
Then you've been lucky. Perhaps that's why you are so fearful? I guess you are not asthmatic. Colds etc can be a huge problem if you have asthmatic. Did you miss the nearly part of the story. He wasn't intubated.
I am not seeking to suggest that covid is not a nasty nasty virus, because it is. But we now have virtually every adult in the nation with antibodies (>98% I think?). There are far fewer people on MV beds now as omicron is milder in the vaccinated and recovered.
I ask the question - when would YOU end restrictions? For some, its seems that point is never.
A tweet alleging that the photo of Boris + tinsel + champagne bottle was faked: photoshopped
I am skeptical. The bottle does look a tiny bit suspect, but the tinsel? Maybe the first photo is the fake?
DYOR
Edit: actually I am sure that it is the more innocent pic which is the deceptive one. Which makes it all murkier. Dom Cummings eking out the evidence slooooooooowly?
Why bother faking it? It wasn't particularly damning in my opinion, just more of the same.
I was expecting to see him dancing naked on the dancefloor with a bottle in one hand and a girl in the other that he was snogging. I was really disappointed.
Has anyone thought of a PB North gathering? Taz, Gallowgate, Pulpstar (?), Cyclefree, eek, cookie, Mr.Ed (?), Another Richard, TSE, Barty, even Big G, maybe, flatlander, etc...? Apologies to anyone I have missed. BJO too? And Valiant.
Great idea.
I would be up for a meeting in the north of England too. As I say in 2016 I went to Manchester but London is just too far.
I'm not the most voluminous of posters, but I would be keen to go to a bash oop north.
Yorkshire would, obviously, be the best place, rather than the rainy post-industrial hellholes to be found to the west of the Pennines.
I'm only joking... IRL I'm actually quite a nice and engaging person. Or so my mam tells me.
A tweet alleging that the photo of Boris + tinsel + champagne bottle was faked: photoshopped
I am skeptical. The bottle does look a tiny bit suspect, but the tinsel? Maybe the first photo is the fake?
DYOR
Edit: actually I am sure that it is the more innocent pic which is the deceptive one. Which makes it all murkier. Dom Cummings eking out the evidence slooooooooowly?
Photoshopped out I think, but who can tell these days? There was a daft bint the other day touting an obvious photoshop of the Andrew/Virginia photo with him photoshopped *out* claiming that he was photoshopped *in.*
Has anyone thought of a PB North gathering? Taz, Gallowgate, Pulpstar (?), Cyclefree, eek, cookie, Mr.Ed (?), Another Richard, TSE, Barty, even Big G, maybe, flatlander, etc...? Apologies to anyone I have missed. BJO too? And Valiant.
Great idea.
I would be up for a meeting in the north of England too. As I say in 2016 I went to Manchester but London is just too far.
Do London and Millom on the same night, with a video link between them so everyone can introduce themselves to each other.
Yes, like Live Aid in 85, Wembley and Maddison Square Garden, it worked well.
Has anyone thought of a PB North gathering? Taz, Gallowgate, Pulpstar (?), Cyclefree, eek, cookie, Mr.Ed (?), Another Richard, TSE, Barty, even Big G, maybe, flatlander, etc...? Apologies to anyone I have missed. BJO too? And Valiant.
Great idea.
Says something about the state of the union that no Scottish posters appear in that list. We all think North = North of England and regard the border as almost unnegotiable.
The 'north' and indeed 'northeast' etc are indeed apt to be ambiguous. But in fairness @dixiedean shouldn't feel bad about it, simply on practical terms. The hills of the borderlands are quite a barrier. It's quite a long way for most PBers in Scotland - pretty much a 4 hour drive one way from the central belt conurbations, never mind those of us who like RP are in what I think of as the north-east (Doric- rather than Geordie-speaking). And when it's snowy and icy, like now ...
Scott, have you never had an illness in your life up to now? Never had flu, or a bad cold.
Never one that left me struggling to breathe, with a temperature of 39.5 degrees and nearly intubated in hospital, no.
Then you've been lucky. Perhaps that's why you are so fearful? I guess you are not asthmatic. Colds etc can be a huge problem if you have asthmatic. Did you miss the nearly part of the story. He wasn't intubated.
I am not seeking to suggest that covid is not a nasty nasty virus, because it is. But we now have virtually every adult in the nation with antibodies (>98% I think?). There are far fewer people on MV beds now as omicron is milder in the vaccinated and recovered.
I ask the question - when would YOU end restrictions? For some, its seems that point is never.
Some sensible questions
1) What is the cost of the remaining restrictions to society? 2) What is the estimated effect on R of those restrictions?
A tweet alleging that the photo of Boris + tinsel + champagne bottle was faked: photoshopped
I am skeptical. The bottle does look a tiny bit suspect, but the tinsel? Maybe the first photo is the fake?
DYOR
Edit: actually I am sure that it is the more innocent pic which is the deceptive one. Which makes it all murkier. Dom Cummings eking out the evidence slooooooooowly?
Ooh if that was faked, which the Mirror have form for, then that is serious.
Interesting comment on that link, if the bottle were genuine then where are the glasses? A bit weird to have an open bottle but no glasses on the table. 🥂
There is more than one photo of the tinsel. I am pretty sure that is real. But of course tinsel is nothing. No rule broken
The bottle DOES look odd, slightly oversized and tilted, and it suddenly appears. Why was it not in the first photos?
It seems big. It looks like a magnum of Veuve Clicquot?
But it could also be an odd angle and just this Sainsbury's prosecco?
Scottish Covid powers to be extended by six months - this is interesting because if Scotland & England diverge, and England opens up, we’ll be able to see whether this works well for England or results in thousands more deaths.
Hanza Yusef chipped up on Today this morning to explain that the Scottish decision will be driven by medical and scientific advice rather than the PM's need for a dead cat. He must have said that about 3 times but when asked whether he accepted that the restrictions had to be withdrawn he admitted that he was "bloody sick" of them. On the economic implications he was, typically, mute. Oh and a dead cat. Again.
Has anyone thought of a PB North gathering? Taz, Gallowgate, Pulpstar (?), Cyclefree, eek, cookie, Mr.Ed (?), Another Richard, TSE, Barty, even Big G, maybe, flatlander, etc...? Apologies to anyone I have missed. BJO too? And Valiant.
Great idea.
I would be up for a meeting in the north of England too. As I say in 2016 I went to Manchester but London is just too far.
Do London and Millom on the same night, with a video link between them so everyone can introduce themselves to each other.
Yes, like Live Aid in 85, Wembley and Maddison Square Garden, it worked well.
(pedant mode)
JFK Stadium in Philadelphia But at least you didn't pluralise MSG.
(/pedant mode)
But, yes, with Zoom and the like this would be feasible.
A tweet alleging that the photo of Boris + tinsel + champagne bottle was faked: photoshopped
I am skeptical. The bottle does look a tiny bit suspect, but the tinsel? Maybe the first photo is the fake?
DYOR
Edit: actually I am sure that it is the more innocent pic which is the deceptive one. Which makes it all murkier. Dom Cummings eking out the evidence slooooooooowly?
I'm a bit confused. Why does the picture without the bottle and the tinsel have the 'Mirror Exclusive' caption? Did The Mirror accidentally post the undoctored picture and someone captured it before they realized?
A tweet alleging that the photo of Boris + tinsel + champagne bottle was faked: photoshopped
I am skeptical. The bottle does look a tiny bit suspect, but the tinsel? Maybe the first photo is the fake?
DYOR
Edit: actually I am sure that it is the more innocent pic which is the deceptive one. Which makes it all murkier. Dom Cummings eking out the evidence slooooooooowly?
I'm a bit confused. Why does the picture without the bottle and the tinsel have the 'Mirror Exclusive' caption? Did The Mirror accidentally post the undoctored picture and someone captured it before they realized?
Has anyone thought of a PB North gathering? Taz, Gallowgate, Pulpstar (?), Cyclefree, eek, cookie, Mr.Ed (?), Another Richard, TSE, Barty, even Big G, maybe, flatlander, etc...? Apologies to anyone I have missed. BJO too? And Valiant.
Great idea.
I would be up for a meeting in the north of England too. As I say in 2016 I went to Manchester but London is just too far.
I'm not the most voluminous of posters, but I would be keen to go to a bash oop north.
Yorkshire would, obviously, be the best place, rather than the rainy post-industrial hellholes to be found to the west of the Pennines.
I'm only joking... IRL I'm actually quite a nice and engaging person. Or so my mam tells me.
You just keep believing her and ignore all those others!
A tweet alleging that the photo of Boris + tinsel + champagne bottle was faked: photoshopped
I am skeptical. The bottle does look a tiny bit suspect, but the tinsel? Maybe the first photo is the fake?
DYOR
Edit: actually I am sure that it is the more innocent pic which is the deceptive one. Which makes it all murkier. Dom Cummings eking out the evidence slooooooooowly?
Ooh if that was faked, which the Mirror have form for, then that is serious.
Interesting comment on that link, if the bottle were genuine then where are the glasses? A bit weird to have an open bottle but no glasses on the table. 🥂
There is a glass right in front of the man with the tinsel with what looks like bubbly or water in it.
We have entered a new phase of government where almost everything the Prime Minister does is aimed at placating his MPs. Everything — from staff changes at No. 10 to the makeup of the whips’ office — is designed to show that he is listening to backbenchers https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/boriss-bunker-the-pms-defensive-strategy
A tweet alleging that the photo of Boris + tinsel + champagne bottle was faked: photoshopped
I am skeptical. The bottle does look a tiny bit suspect, but the tinsel? Maybe the first photo is the fake?
DYOR
Edit: actually I am sure that it is the more innocent pic which is the deceptive one. Which makes it all murkier. Dom Cummings eking out the evidence slooooooooowly?
Why bother faking it? It wasn't particularly damning in my opinion, just more of the same.
I was expecting to see him dancing naked on the dancefloor with a bottle in one hand and a girl in the other that he was snogging. I was really disappointed.
Has anyone thought of a PB North gathering? Taz, Gallowgate, Pulpstar (?), Cyclefree, eek, cookie, Mr.Ed (?), Another Richard, TSE, Barty, even Big G, maybe, flatlander, etc...? Apologies to anyone I have missed. BJO too? And Valiant.
Great idea.
I would be up for a meeting in the north of England too. As I say in 2016 I went to Manchester but London is just too far.
Do London and Millom on the same night, with a video link between them so everyone can introduce themselves to each other.
I shall be in London on March 2.
Glasgow or Manchester would be better places for a Northern gathering. Good bars in each.
A tweet alleging that the photo of Boris + tinsel + champagne bottle was faked: photoshopped
I am skeptical. The bottle does look a tiny bit suspect, but the tinsel? Maybe the first photo is the fake?
DYOR
Edit: actually I am sure that it is the more innocent pic which is the deceptive one. Which makes it all murkier. Dom Cummings eking out the evidence slooooooooowly?
Ooh if that was faked, which the Mirror have form for, then that is serious.
Interesting comment on that link, if the bottle were genuine then where are the glasses? A bit weird to have an open bottle but no glasses on the table. 🥂
There is more than one photo of the tinsel. I am pretty sure that is real. But of course tinsel is nothing. No rule broken
The bottle DOES look odd, slightly oversized and tilted, and it suddenly appears. Why was it not in the first photos?
It seems big. It looks like a magnum of Veuve Clicquot?
But it could also be an odd angle and just this Sainsbury's prosecco?
Without the bottle the photo has zero meaning, PM in background of man looking at the computer, PM fiddling with his top button. The bottle creates the agenda that it is a picture of a party. The bottle is oddly big and is at the wrong angle compared to the sanitiser
Comments
Writers in both Newstatesman and Telegraph in last few days have warned that this is what Putin really wants - a dysfunctional Ukr because the eastern, pro-Russia areas are in some kind of federation with rest of Ukraine.
And they are, and should be, encouraged to gain experience on qualification by working world-wide. Young people don't often enter these professions without some sort of wish, however vague, to 'do good'.
C’est officiel : l’Indonésie commande 42 Rafale
https://twitter.com/florence_parly/status/1491665111676772354?s=20&t=ZXGaem1YiEIn2zirH0jrLQ
People in political circles like to believe that the giant peado conspiracy was disproved. But to many ordinary people Rotherham was exactly that - a vast, long running conspiracy, protected by all the power brokers.
Note that while the perpetrators are getting their just deserts, those that protected them have been completely immune to any sanction.
And the attempts at push back have been noted - remember the attempt to label a victim as racist because she wasn't happy with the daughter of one of those involved having access to the victims records?
Of course this wasn't the vast conspiracy that was wanted - didn't involve enough Tories, for a start. So the political world has kind of forgotten about it.
But it has entered the public consciousness as a metaphor for "They really, really don't care about us. And will allow *anything* to happen to us if it is convenient".
It'll be the same old, stinky, rancid hell.
For all of this time, the number of places in university and training for doctors, nurses, medical technicians etc have been far below these numbers.
As an accidental byproduct of the exam screwup during COVID, some University courses are at 130%+ places.
1) When the increased number of potential doctors and nurses fall out of the other end of the sausage machine in a couple of years, will there be training places for them?
2) Will the increased number of places be maintained?
I was told that the BMA has already asked, quietly, that the number of medical degrees be returned to "normal"....
https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/1491698970439172097?s=20&t=ZXGaem1YiEIn2zirH0jrLQ
*Actually he used a more colourful phrase!
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1491694980938805249?s=20&t=ijbR6wYMzzAN7gELizH_tg
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/08/no-10-chernobyl-boris-johnson-keir-starmer-mob
...Anyway: we go again. One calendar week after Johnson tried to wriggle off the “partygate” hook by shouting something grim about Keir Starmer and Jimmy Savile, Keir Starmer was beset in the street by a mob shouting something grim about him and Jimmy Savile. It’s important to be clear that they were shouting a load of other grim stuff, too – but I’m afraid that isn’t the get-out Downing Street seems to think it is. In fact, it just underlines why no prime minister, ever, should be feeding dangerous conspiracy theories, which run the gamut from anti-vax all the way to antisemitism, via a selection of paedophile-based nonsense and much else besides. If recent rallies and demos have taught us anything, it’s that there is, increasingly, plenty of overlap. These days, all sorts of persuasions are fellow travellers.
You need to be against ALL this stuff, elementally, not just the bits that can’t get you out of a hole in the House of Commons. It’s the same with mobs: the mob that targeted Jacob Rees-Mogg and his son a while back was just as bad as the mob that surrounded Starmer and David Lammy on Monday, as was the mob that repeatedly abused Dominic Cummings in his own street. They’re all a pox and a signpost of worse to come, and no politician who truly cares about their country should pander to them....
The BoE base rate fell from 10% to 6% in the four months afterwards.
With over 50% of BTGs already deployed near Ukraine—and, most importantly, a lot of equipment (much of it moved out of the Eastern District in the far east)—Russia is not well prepared for other potential security eventualities that might arise up elsewhere
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1491636753882566657
It's possible but seems unlikely that it's wise to have no restrictions whatsoever, and it would be helpful to see the opinion of the sientific advisers on this - has it been published?
Best Saints have played in years although Spurs (apart from their front 3) are woeful.
The stadium is sight to behold, it is simply epic.
But, if it's true, then I am still surprised considering she is a 15 year old. If proven then adults involved could be prosecuted.
It's very disappointing because figure skating has largely seemed free of doping. It's not a sport for muscle mass. Unlike athletics which I'm afraid I can no longer watch, and cycling which is equally disappointing.
But please don't think TeamGB are saints. British Cycling still has a LOT of unanswered questions as the likes of David Walsh have been keen to point out.
Entirely unsurprising given that Putin & Co. believe that the Goode Olde Days *were* good.
And that is absolutely the government's job.
It would be helpful to see the opinion of the scientific advisors on smoking or eating Terry's Chocolate Oranges. But it shouldn't determine policy.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/timeseries/g7fg/lms
Given the money now spent on the NHS I do wonder why it hasn't 'collapsed' many times previously:
Expenditure on the NHS has risen rapidly and consistently since it was established on 5th July 1948. In the first full year of its operation, the Government spent around £11.4 billion in today’s prices on health in the UK. In 2018/19 the figure was over ten times that amount at £152.9 billion. Growth in health expenditure has far outpaced the rise in both GDP and total public expenditure; each increased by a factor of around 4.8 over this period.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn00724/
One thing is for certain is that spending on the NHS has increased at a far greater rate than either life expectancy or general health levels of the population.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athletics_at_the_1988_Summer_Olympics_–_Men%27s_100_metres#Final
Interesting to see how many are left standing, untainted.
And then it was revealed that it was hurting but not working.
What restrictions are actually left and what is their effect on R?
The monuments, which stood outside the provincial parliament in Manitoba, were pulled down on Canada Day last July during heated protests over the country’s colonial past and historic mistreatment of indigenous people." (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/canadians-who-toppled-statues-of-queen-victoria-and-queen-elizabeth-to-face-no-charges-lstq5678c
"It's possible but seems unlikely that it's wise to have no restrictions whatsoever" is the sentiment of someone both privileged and anxious. There will be many just like Nick I'm sure.
It is noticeable that the sports that don't have this problem are the ones where fame and fortune are not the result.
It is also noticeable that when fame and fortune come to a sport, the problem appears.
The Ancient Greeks knew this.
The film Chariots of Fire makes interesting viewing, to me, since all of this. The portrayal of "the powers that be" as muddy duddies and a bit racist for not liking professional sport has aged like milk.....
There are guys in my cycling club doing Clen, Anavar, Trenbolone cycles and testosterone gel caps just to chase Strava KoMs!
The ones competing at a serious level are doing oxygen vector doping and, where possible, blood doping on top of the normal thermogenesis like Clen.
Fraser Nelson has some thoughts on SAGE scenarios:
A few quotes today from SAGE advisers saying that they weren't consulted over decision to abolish restrictions (so no charts predicting surge in deaths, etc).
Here's what SAGE said about summer reopening last year. Like Omicron, every scenario was wrong.
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1491673879676346373?s=20&t=5j8ytgO8JphcM8--UcPJMA
*all as in literally, everything
Which there wasn't.
But at least her dodgy-as-hell world record still stands today. That record is so dodgy, I wouldn’t be surprised if someone was to go back to that track today and find it’s only 95m long.
And I think given their record over the last two years, the views of sage are entirely irrelevant.
Always good to think about what you get for the memory, CPU and disc space you "spend".
Then says we don't need restrictions any more...
Its time to trust the public, not legally mandate people isolating.
ETA damn! Sucked into whataboutery. We must not forget Boris's role in spreading dangerous conspiracy theories to rile up the men with pitch forks.
The fact he didn't need intubation is because the vaccines work. Stop spreading antivaxx myths to justify continuing restrictions.
A tweet alleging that the photo of Boris + tinsel + champagne bottle was faked: photoshopped
I am skeptical. The bottle does look a tiny bit suspect, but the tinsel? Maybe the first photo is the fake?
DYOR
Edit: actually I am sure that it is the more innocent pic which is the deceptive one. Which makes it all murkier. Dom Cummings eking out the evidence slooooooooowly?
https://twitter.com/Ann06957684/status/1491545566928584711?s=20
Interesting comment on that link, if the bottle were genuine then where are the glasses? A bit weird to have an open bottle but no glasses on the table. 🥂
Imagine if everyone on that boat would be getting 7 figures for the lie....
I am not seeking to suggest that covid is not a nasty nasty virus, because it is. But we now have virtually every adult in the nation with antibodies (>98% I think?). There are far fewer people on MV beds now as omicron is milder in the vaccinated and recovered.
I ask the question - when would YOU end restrictions? For some, its seems that point is never.
I was expecting to see him dancing naked on the dancefloor with a bottle in one hand and a girl in the other that he was snogging. I was really disappointed.
Yorkshire would, obviously, be the best place, rather than the rainy post-industrial hellholes to be found to the west of the Pennines.
I'm only joking... IRL I'm actually quite a nice and engaging person. Or so my mam tells me.
1) What is the cost of the remaining restrictions to society?
2) What is the estimated effect on R of those restrictions?
The bottle DOES look odd, slightly oversized and tilted, and it suddenly appears. Why was it not in the first photos?
It seems big. It looks like a magnum of Veuve Clicquot?
But it could also be an odd angle and just this Sainsbury's prosecco?
https://www.sainsburys.co.uk/gol-ui/product/buy-6/canti-prosecco-75cl
JFK Stadium in Philadelphia
(/pedant mode)
But, yes, with Zoom and the like this would be feasible.
Glasgow or Manchester would be better places for a Northern gathering. Good bars in each.
This is *quite* convincing. The bottle is at the wrong angle.
https://twitter.com/DomMgy1/status/1491697814946131974?s=20
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/the-brahmos-deal-and-indias-defence-exports/article38395523.ece