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Graying Out – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Can someone give me a breakdown of why Wales and Scotland's Covid numbers are substantially lower than England's? What combination of restrictions and reporting differences has caused it, as it appears rather stark on the maps.

    It's all to do with the Great Scottish Central Desert and the lack of population apart from a few sheep, acc to the PBTories of old. (Ignorant of the density and interconnectedness of population where it does occur.)
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    That’s that then, no VONC. Cowards.

    Actually it's not cowardice per se.

    Think about it, they try and VONC him, and he survives and then he's either charged or fined, he'll try and brazen it out, safe in the knowledge the party cannot oust him for 12 months.

    Better to wait until he's charged/fined.
    The threshold to remove him keeps moving up for arbitrary reasons. It now seems to be that he be found to have committed a criminal offence.
    Yes I noticed that too. Whereas until a few days ago it was about misleading (lying to) the House. Which he obviously did.
    The problem is that the Conservative Party has to find somebody to replace him who will not plunge it into a costly civil war whilst at the same time appearing plausible to the public at large. It needs to buy time to arrange this. This is the only explanation for its delay in removing the oaf.


    He's a goner, but what comes next is far from clear. If it goes badly for them, the Party could soon be replacing the LibDems as the third largest Party in Westminster.
    The LDs will never win more seats than the Tories.

    Only party that might is RefUK if they overtook the Tories as the main party of the right as Labour overtook the Liberals as the main party of the centre left early last century.

    The LDs are now split between centre right Orange Bookers and centre left social democrats
    You are describing the party 10 years ago. 11 of the party’s 13 MPs weren’t even in Parliament when The Orange Book came out.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Boris delenda est.

    For the good of the country and the Conservative Party if it wants to exist for the long term.

    Aaaargh. Please. Delendus. Unless Mrs J has self-identified as female, like 'sailor' in Latin.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Admittedly I don't have a huge amount of friends in the real world, but I don't have any left who will admit to intending to vote Conservative after this. The last man standing, previously a total loyalist, has said he will vote for Starmer.
  • Carnyx said:

    Boris delenda est.

    For the good of the country and the Conservative Party if it wants to exist for the long term.

    Aaaargh. Please. Delendus. Unless Mrs J has self-identified as female, like 'sailor' in Latin.
    I’m blaming autocorrect.

    Fixed now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    Roger said:

    Shocking story coming out of Afghanistan. Only 3% of the population living above the poverty line. They are in serious danger of starvation. The UK government have a serious responsibility for whats going on. A good opportunity for Johnson to change the habit of a lifetime and try to do some good.

    Is that relative or absolute poverty? Makes a mockery of the word poverty to have it chopped and changed like that.

    In my humble opinion we should wash our hands of Afghanistan and have absolutely no responsibility for the nation and absolutely no aid should be going there. We tried to be responsible for them, they rejected us an installed the Taliban instead.

    Let the Taliban take responsibility. You don't get to reject our help then say "but keep sending us money and food".
    This is the most morally bankrupt comment that I recall seeing on PB. Victim blaming at its worst.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    Interesting. I think Raab protested too much. I don't think he was trying to defend him at all. He just went through the motions. He seemed a little to pleased with the way the questioning was going!
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    I could still vote Conservative. There are definetly greater dangers lurking in the ideas of the labour party, than a repeat of partygate or cakegate. Starmer is easily the better PM, but how secure is he in his party?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    Boris delendus est.

    For the good of the country and the Conservative Party if it wants to exist for the long term.

    99% of the Tory MPs with common sense and decency were culled by Boris before the last election.

    All that is left are people who apart from Aaron Bell have a lot of explaining and apologising to do as they scrabble round for votes at the next election.
  • Cynics have previously suggested this smear had been trialled for use at the general election. That might be why Boris had it on his mind.
  • Not sure if it was commented on here yesterday or not, but absolute genius from the spin doctors to pick transfer deadline day to release the report snippet.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited February 2022
    eek said:

    Jonathan said:

    PMQs remains difficult. Same question, same non answer. Hard to find a new angle, but you can’t let it go. Maybe asking about the call with Putin.

    Will Boris be at PMQs tomorrow it seems unlikely given that he is in the Ukraine today.
    Rayner will eat Raab for breakfast.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Carnyx said:

    Can someone give me a breakdown of why Wales and Scotland's Covid numbers are substantially lower than England's? What combination of restrictions and reporting differences has caused it, as it appears rather stark on the maps.

    It's all to do with the Great Scottish Central Desert and the lack of population apart from a few sheep, acc to the PBTories of old. (Ignorant of the density and interconnectedness of population where it does occur.)
    It seems that the testing usage is different. Whether this is structural/cultural/policy is another question.

    The raw positivity numbers show this - they have shown a similar pattern for a long, long time.

    image
  • Hard to believe Dominic Raab is a lawyer.


  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Takes a peek. Sees that we are all still talking about birthday cake. goes back to lurking for a few more days.

    Meanwhile, apropos of nothing, the PM is in Kiev today for a meeting with President Zelensky. Ukraine is getting worried that US interests and media are unnecessarily talking up the chances of a Russian invasion this month. There’s a fine line to tread between being supportive of an ally, and antagonising the Russians which makes the conflict more likely to happen.

    Putin needs permission and political coverage from Xi to invade Ukraine. That isn't going to be forthcoming while it will fuck up the Winter Olympics so no invasion until the 21st.
    Covid is doing a pretty good job of that anyway. Maybe Xi will authorise the invasion to draw attention away from the games and the inevitable disastrous consequences of going ahead with them.
    My big fear is that Xi makes a play for Taiwan at the same time - i.e. during the Olympics. The US, UK and allies will not be able to put substantial aid to both Ukraine and Taiwan, and China will have lots of hostages guests staying for the Olympics.

    It's unlikely, but would be a good way for both to achieve their goals.
    A Xi invasion of Taiwan could be
    coordinated with a Putin invasion of Ukraine.

    It makes sense for them as they know the West will not go to war to defend Ukraine or Taiwan, only a NATO nation, South Korea or Japan.


    Yougov finds meanwhile a majority of Germans and a plurality of voters in most other NATO nations oppose going to war with Russia if it invades Ukraine. Only a plurality of Americans and Danes favour going to war with Russia over the Ukraine but even then only 38% of Danes and 35% of Russians back war. Britons are split

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1488111850017406976?s=20&t=eh6ET0EsIAeXxNtKWoTyaQ
    It is absolutely insane that 30% of Britons want a war with Russia if they invade Ukraine. Apart from the risk of nuclear escalation we simply don't have the forces to do so.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    eek said:

    Boris delendus est.

    For the good of the country and the Conservative Party if it wants to exist for the long term.

    99% of the Tory MPs with common sense and decency were culled by Boris before the last election.

    All that is left are people who apart from Aaron Bell have a lot of explaining and apologising to do as they scrabble round for votes at the next election.
    His story about his grandmother's funeral and the question of whether he was a fool not to attend tea afterwards was an impressive example of the absurdity of this. Surely, surely there will be a VONC today.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747

    Cynics have previously suggested this smear had been trialled for use at the general election. That might be why Boris had it on his mind.
    Yes it’s clear that Johnson intends to fight the next election on the basis of fake news and ugliness. And he still thinks he will be fighting it.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Shocking story coming out of Afghanistan. Only 3% of the population living above the poverty line. They are in serious danger of starvation. The UK government have a serious responsibility for whats going on. A good opportunity for Johnson to change the habit of a lifetime and try to do some good.

    Is that relative or absolute poverty? Makes a mockery of the word poverty to have it chopped and changed like that.

    In my humble opinion we should wash our hands of Afghanistan and have absolutely no responsibility for the nation and absolutely no aid should be going there. We tried to be responsible for them, they rejected us an installed the Taliban instead.

    Let the Taliban take responsibility. You don't get to reject our help then say "but keep sending us money and food".
    This is the most morally bankrupt comment that I recall seeing on PB. Victim blaming at its worst.
    What BR has said is effectively what the UK and US decided to do. Its not victim blaming, it's just reality. Any 'aid' to the taliban should be tied to the achievement of policy objectives. It isn't wise to give the taliban aid under the guise of 'poverty reduction' if its effect is to stablise their regime.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    Roger said:

    Interesting. I think Raab protested too much. I don't think he was trying to defend him at all. He just went through the motions. He seemed a little to pleased with the way the questioning was going!

    The attacks on Starmer over Saville were a disgrace.

    Starmer can be rightly criticised for the prosecutions of journalists. But this was irrelevant to the issues the government is facing.

    One of the points raised by Gray was access to offices and control and oversight of this, as well as poor whistleblowing practices.

    Interesting in this regard to note this change made yesterday but little noted - https://twitter.com/emilythornberry/status/1488291899618344964?s=21.

    The government has removed a requirement for officials to flag concerns about security concerns.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    That’s that then, no VONC. Cowards.

    Actually it's not cowardice per se.

    Think about it, they try and VONC him, and he survives and then he's either charged or fined, he'll try and brazen it out, safe in the knowledge the party cannot oust him for 12 months.

    Better to wait until he's charged/fined.
    The threshold to remove him keeps moving up for arbitrary reasons. It now seems to be that he be found to have committed a criminal offence.
    Yes I noticed that too. Whereas until a few days ago it was about misleading (lying to) the House. Which he obviously did.
    Was glad to see Blackford saying what needed to be said. Others need to do the same and keep doing so until the message sinks in.
    It was no doubt a somewhat contrived departure and normally I don't care for silly theatricals in the Commons but I think this may have served some useful purpose.

    The convention that you don't call a fellow Member a liar only works if you can generally take it for granted that MPs do not lie to the House. The convention rather collapses when you have a PM who is a serial liar and has so obviously lied to and misled the house that only a fool would think otherwise.

    Blackford was thrown out for stating the obvious. It's time the convention was binned. It has become obsolete.
    Disagree with the last part - with so many brainless morons in the house (think Tory and Labour back bench cannon fodder like Sultana and Young) we can't give the OK to shouting LIAR as they will never stop.

    It should be a simple basis of fact that members do not knowingly mislead - lie - to the house. As you say the disgrace cannot stop lying and needs to be called out for it.

    What I think would be powerful is if we see a succession of members standing up and calling him a liar. Mr Speaker will remove the first few, but very quickly the whole house will grind to a stop - he'd probably have to suspend the sitting. Then a point of order - as the PM is demonstrably lying why are you suspending the sitting?

    Think about the coverage. You want to slam the message home hard to the public, go do it. Which is why Blackford did. Elections coming up remember, and Dross and his colleagues want people to vote for the party of the disgrace.
    Unfortunately when the speaker is a wimpy servile nob it would make no difference
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812

    Hard to believe Dominic Raab is a lawyer.


    The PM, like any accused person, has a right to silence. I think he should be making excellent use of it. Maybe 5 years worth?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    eek said:

    Jonathan said:

    PMQs remains difficult. Same question, same non answer. Hard to find a new angle, but you can’t let it go. Maybe asking about the call with Putin.

    Will Boris be at PMQs tomorrow it seems unlikely given that he is in the Ukraine today.
    He is out buying Fridges.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    There’s much protesting that the PM has survived this latest saga..

    I just can’t see a situation where this doesn’t rumble on. Raab already backtracking on the report this morning. Evidently worse to come from the publication of the full report.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Takes a peek. Sees that we are all still talking about birthday cake. goes back to lurking for a few more days.

    Meanwhile, apropos of nothing, the PM is in Kiev today for a meeting with President Zelensky. Ukraine is getting worried that US interests and media are unnecessarily talking up the chances of a Russian invasion this month. There’s a fine line to tread between being supportive of an ally, and antagonising the Russians which makes the conflict more likely to happen.

    Putin needs permission and political coverage from Xi to invade Ukraine. That isn't going to be forthcoming while it will fuck up the Winter Olympics so no invasion until the 21st.
    Covid is doing a pretty good job of that anyway. Maybe Xi will authorise the invasion to draw attention away from the games and the inevitable disastrous consequences of going ahead with them.
    My big fear is that Xi makes a play for Taiwan at the same time - i.e. during the Olympics. The US, UK and allies will not be able to put substantial aid to both Ukraine and Taiwan, and China will have lots of hostages guests staying for the Olympics.

    It's unlikely, but would be a good way for both to achieve their goals.
    A Xi invasion of Taiwan could be
    coordinated with a Putin invasion of Ukraine.

    It makes sense for them as they know the West will not go to war to defend Ukraine or Taiwan, only a NATO nation, South Korea or Japan.


    Yougov finds meanwhile a majority of Germans and a plurality of voters in most other NATO nations oppose going to war with Russia if it invades Ukraine. Only a plurality of Americans and Danes favour going to war with Russia over the Ukraine but even then only 38% of Danes and 35% of Russians back war. Britons are split

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1488111850017406976?s=20&t=eh6ET0EsIAeXxNtKWoTyaQ
    It is absolutely insane that 30% of Britons want a war with Russia if they invade Ukraine. Apart from the risk of nuclear escalation we simply don't have the forces to do so.
    We do with the Americans and Danes, a plurality of both would go to war with Russia over Ukraine, even if Britons are split.

    If Putin invaded Poland then a plurality of French and Swedes would also back going to war with Russia the poll finds and would join too
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    Shocking story coming out of Afghanistan. Only 3% of the population living above the poverty line. They are in serious danger of starvation. The UK government have a serious responsibility for whats going on. A good opportunity for Johnson to change the habit of a lifetime and try to do some good.

    Is that relative or absolute poverty? Makes a mockery of the word poverty to have it chopped and changed like that...
    The reported rates of malnutrition and severe malnutrition make a mockery of that question.
    What you are seeing in Afghanistan is simply the Goode Olde Days. Implemented by people who don't actually know how the Goode Olde Days worked, mind you.

    Feudal agriculture plus a bunch of warlords with the whole setup held together with religion. What does that remind you of?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Takes a peek. Sees that we are all still talking about birthday cake. goes back to lurking for a few more days.

    Meanwhile, apropos of nothing, the PM is in Kiev today for a meeting with President Zelensky. Ukraine is getting worried that US interests and media are unnecessarily talking up the chances of a Russian invasion this month. There’s a fine line to tread between being supportive of an ally, and antagonising the Russians which makes the conflict more likely to happen.

    Putin needs permission and political coverage from Xi to invade Ukraine. That isn't going to be forthcoming while it will fuck up the Winter Olympics so no invasion until the 21st.
    Covid is doing a pretty good job of that anyway. Maybe Xi will authorise the invasion to draw attention away from the games and the inevitable disastrous consequences of going ahead with them.
    My big fear is that Xi makes a play for Taiwan at the same time - i.e. during the Olympics. The US, UK and allies will not be able to put substantial aid to both Ukraine and Taiwan, and China will have lots of hostages guests staying for the Olympics.

    It's unlikely, but would be a good way for both to achieve their goals.
    A Xi invasion of Taiwan could be
    coordinated with a Putin invasion of Ukraine.

    It makes sense for them as they know the West will not go to war to defend Ukraine or Taiwan, only a NATO nation, South Korea or Japan.


    Yougov finds meanwhile a majority of Germans and a plurality of voters in most other NATO nations oppose going to war with Russia if it invades Ukraine. Only a plurality of Americans and Danes favour going to war with Russia over the Ukraine but even then only 38% of Danes and 35% of Russians back war. Britons are split

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1488111850017406976?s=20&t=eh6ET0EsIAeXxNtKWoTyaQ
    It is absolutely insane that 30% of Britons want a war with Russia if they invade Ukraine. Apart from the risk of nuclear escalation we simply don't have the forces to do so.
    What's your answer then? Let Putin's evil take over Ukraine, and cast a pall over Eastern Europe?

    Of course, you can always go over there and do one of the 'non-violent' protests you've trained for. That'd be fun to see. ;)
  • Justice Sec Dominic Raab refuses to repeat Boris Johnson’s false allegation - made under parliamentary privilege - that Keir Starmer as DPP protected Jimmy Savile.

    He describes it as the “normal cut and thrust of politics” but admits: “I can’t substantiate that claim”. #Today


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1488429760711639041?s=20&t=Y6r2wi2Vjfwjsq79dNDXHQ
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    Carnyx said:

    Can someone give me a breakdown of why Wales and Scotland's Covid numbers are substantially lower than England's? What combination of restrictions and reporting differences has caused it, as it appears rather stark on the maps.

    It's all to do with the Great Scottish Central Desert and the lack of population apart from a few sheep, acc to the PBTories of old. (Ignorant of the density and interconnectedness of population where it does occur.)
    I'm unsure that's the whole story. There's some of that, but AFAICR the maps have not been as starkly different in the past as they were today.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    edited February 2022

    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    Shocking story coming out of Afghanistan. Only 3% of the population living above the poverty line. They are in serious danger of starvation. The UK government have a serious responsibility for whats going on. A good opportunity for Johnson to change the habit of a lifetime and try to do some good.

    Is that relative or absolute poverty? Makes a mockery of the word poverty to have it chopped and changed like that...
    The reported rates of malnutrition and severe malnutrition make a mockery of that question.
    What you are seeing in Afghanistan is simply the Goode Olde Days. Implemented by people who don't actually know how the Goode Olde Days worked, mind you.

    Feudal agriculture plus a bunch of warlords with the whole setup held together with religion. What does that remind you of?
    The Conservative Party and the C of E. One of us was positively lauding the feudal landowner lord of the manor plus peasants social structure as a recommendation for modern England during the Shropshire by-election.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    The confusion between law and guidance is one it seems we need to learn over and over again. The police for one really do not like it if people point it out.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Roger said:

    Shocking story coming out of Afghanistan. Only 3% of the population living above the poverty line. They are in serious danger of starvation. The UK government have a serious responsibility for whats going on. A good opportunity for Johnson to change the habit of a lifetime and try to do some good.

    Is that relative or absolute poverty? Makes a mockery of the word poverty to have it chopped and changed like that.

    In my humble opinion we should wash our hands of Afghanistan and have absolutely no responsibility for the nation and absolutely no aid should be going there. We tried to be responsible for them, they rejected us an installed the Taliban instead.

    Let the Taliban take responsibility. You don't get to reject our help then say "but keep sending us money and food".
    It is outright terrible poverty. A Biblical Famine is emerging in Afghanistan

    However half of me, at least, feels like you. Enough. You want a mad Islamist government that hates the world? Here you go. This is what happens
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited February 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    That’s that then, no VONC. Cowards.

    Actually it's not cowardice per se.

    Think about it, they try and VONC him, and he survives and then he's either charged or fined, he'll try and brazen it out, safe in the knowledge the party cannot oust him for 12 months.

    Better to wait until he's charged/fined.
    The threshold to remove him keeps moving up for arbitrary reasons. It now seems to be that he be found to have committed a criminal offence.
    Yes I noticed that too. Whereas until a few days ago it was about misleading (lying to) the House. Which he obviously did.
    The problem is that the Conservative Party has to find somebody to replace him who will not plunge it into a costly civil war whilst at the same time appearing plausible to the public at large. It needs to buy time to arrange this. This is the only explanation for its delay in removing the oaf.


    He's a goner, but what comes next is far from clear. If it goes badly for them, the Party could soon be replacing the LibDems as the third largest Party in Westminster.
    The LDs will never win more seats than the Tories.

    Only party that might is RefUK if they overtook the Tories as the main party of the right as Labour overtook the Liberals as the main party of the centre left early last century.

    The LDs are now split between centre right Orange Bookers and centre left social democrats
    You are describing the party 10 years ago. 11 of the party’s 13 MPs weren’t even in Parliament when The Orange Book came out.
    Davey is LD leader and was a Cabinet Minister in Cameron's government and even helped write the Orange Book.

    Boris of course never served in Cameron's Cabinet unlike Ed Davey
  • Unpopular said:

    Unpopular said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Boris intent on taking the Union down with him.

    Don't get this line at all.

    If you want the Union to stay, is BJ having his drinks parties going to make you think "you know what, I'll vote for independence?". Especially given all the question marks over Nicola S's own behaviour and what was exposed in the Salmond case? Yes, people might vote for another party as the main Unionist party but their #1 motivation factor is the...Union, not BJ.

    As poster Unpopular, a Unionist living in Scotland, put it on the previous thread:

    - “He, and notables around him, seem to go out their way to prove everything the SNP say about Westminster.”
    And is Unpopular going to now vote for independence off the back of BJ's behaviour?
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Boris intent on taking the Union down with him.

    Don't get this line at all.

    If you want the Union to stay, is BJ having his drinks parties going to make you think "you know what, I'll vote for independence?". Especially given all the question marks over Nicola S's own behaviour and what was exposed in the Salmond case? Yes, people might vote for another party as the main Unionist party but their #1 motivation factor is the...Union, not BJ.

    As poster Unpopular, a Unionist living in Scotland, put it on the previous thread:

    - “He, and notables around him, seem to go out their way to prove everything the SNP say about Westminster.”
    And is Unpopular going to now vote for independence off the back of BJ's behaviour?
    No, I'm a diehard Unionist. I can't really think of a realistic scenario under which I wouldn't vote to retain the Union. But that view is probably not the majority of Scots. The parties (or work events) aren't going to drive a vote for independence themselves but the impression that this government is acting as though the rules don't apply to them feeds into a narrative of unfairness and distance, which can be exploited by others offering an alternative. They can point to them and say 'These people are not like you, these people don't care about you.' In Scotland, because of the political dividing lines, this narrative is uniquely problematic for the Union.

    At the end of the day, if people don't feel included in the Union, if they feel that they are being taken for granted, or for fools, they won't stand it. Regardless of the economic benefits.
    You’re a new poster, and I like your style.

    Why are you still a Unionist?
    Is it sentiment, economics, both?
    Why thank you, long time lurker, but thought I'd get stuck in a bit. Would post more, but it takes me ages to think and then write what I mean.

    It's a bit of both, though I'm mainly a Unionist for sentiment, I guess. I'm not actually Scottish but Gisella Stewart's words on this really sums it up. She said she could never feel English, but she could be British (in a national sense). I think there's something to that, this shared identity (not universally felt, I know). I also think the Union is bigger than a single Government or political party. The United Kingdom is stronger and more influential in the world than it would be as its constituent parts. The economic benefits are, of course a part of it. I think we're richer together too and the economic opportunities the Union affords to English, Scottish, Welsh and Irish people are also greater than those that are afforded in the Nations.

    I try to be clear eyed about the future of the Union, and a Scottish partner helps with that. I think Westminster generally, and the Conservative Party in particular, are very complacent about the continued existence of the United Kingdom. Even though I support it, I know that the Union cannot long endure without the consent of the people of the four nations.
    Important post. Food for thought. @HYUFD ahem.

    I’m curious to know how the Conservative & Unionist Party plan to make the Union less unpopular/more popular. How (and when) are you lot actually going to start winning hearts and minds?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Shocking story coming out of Afghanistan. Only 3% of the population living above the poverty line. They are in serious danger of starvation. The UK government have a serious responsibility for whats going on. A good opportunity for Johnson to change the habit of a lifetime and try to do some good.

    Is that relative or absolute poverty? Makes a mockery of the word poverty to have it chopped and changed like that.

    In my humble opinion we should wash our hands of Afghanistan and have absolutely no responsibility for the nation and absolutely no aid should be going there. We tried to be responsible for them, they rejected us an installed the Taliban instead.

    Let the Taliban take responsibility. You don't get to reject our help then say "but keep sending us money and food".
    It is outright terrible poverty. A Biblical Famine is emerging in Afghanistan

    However half of me, at least, feels like you. Enough. You want a mad Islamist government that hates the world? Here you go. This is what happens
    “Want” seems an odd choice of word. The Taliban were not elected. It’s been a long time since anyone asked the people of Afghanistan what they wanted.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    moonshine said:

    Justice Sec Dominic Raab refuses to repeat Boris Johnson’s false allegation - made under parliamentary privilege - that Keir Starmer as DPP protected Jimmy Savile.

    He describes it as the “normal cut and thrust of politics” but admits: “I can’t substantiate that claim”. #Today


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1488429760711639041?s=20&t=Y6r2wi2Vjfwjsq79dNDXHQ

    I’m confused. The parliamentary rules allow you to slander another MP by falsely accusing him of aiding and abetting a paedophile? But not to say than an MP has misled the house, when any objective reading of the facts is that he did?

    The whole system is a joke.
    The whole Jimmy Saville rubbish was the final straw in a long line of mishaps for many.

    Good luck to his loyal cabinet defending it. At least they have the Boris they love back
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Carnyx said:

    Can someone give me a breakdown of why Wales and Scotland's Covid numbers are substantially lower than England's? What combination of restrictions and reporting differences has caused it, as it appears rather stark on the maps.

    It's all to do with the Great Scottish Central Desert and the lack of population apart from a few sheep, acc to the PBTories of old. (Ignorant of the density and interconnectedness of population where it does occur.)
    I'm unsure that's the whole story. There's some of that, but AFAICR the maps have not been as starkly different in the past as they were today.
    I was being sarcastic about past comments - not yours, though! One does need to bear in mind that red on the map of say Highlands health board versus Lothian health board means many times fewer people per square mmm of red ink despite the geographical size, but from memory we have had periods before with similar differences (and others with differences the other way). There was certainly a wave in rural areas of Scotland when the tourist season began last summer, for instance.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    I think the point about half hearted they were about the rules, even to the point of really knowing what they were, is a critical one. As it says many of us did the same, but naively we expected a bit more from senior officialdom.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Takes a peek. Sees that we are all still talking about birthday cake. goes back to lurking for a few more days.

    Meanwhile, apropos of nothing, the PM is in Kiev today for a meeting with President Zelensky. Ukraine is getting worried that US interests and media are unnecessarily talking up the chances of a Russian invasion this month. There’s a fine line to tread between being supportive of an ally, and antagonising the Russians which makes the conflict more likely to happen.

    Putin needs permission and political coverage from Xi to invade Ukraine. That isn't going to be forthcoming while it will fuck up the Winter Olympics so no invasion until the 21st.
    Covid is doing a pretty good job of that anyway. Maybe Xi will authorise the invasion to draw attention away from the games and the inevitable disastrous consequences of going ahead with them.
    My big fear is that Xi makes a play for Taiwan at the same time - i.e. during the Olympics. The US, UK and allies will not be able to put substantial aid to both Ukraine and Taiwan, and China will have lots of hostages guests staying for the Olympics.

    It's unlikely, but would be a good way for both to achieve their goals.
    A Xi invasion of Taiwan could be
    coordinated with a Putin invasion of Ukraine.

    It makes sense for them as they know the West will not go to war to defend Ukraine or Taiwan, only a NATO nation, South Korea or Japan.


    Yougov finds meanwhile a majority of Germans and a plurality of voters in most other NATO nations oppose going to war with Russia if it invades Ukraine. Only a plurality of Americans and Danes favour going to war with Russia over the Ukraine but even then only 38% of Danes and 35% of Russians back war. Britons are split

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1488111850017406976?s=20&t=eh6ET0EsIAeXxNtKWoTyaQ
    It is absolutely insane that 30% of Britons want a war with Russia if they invade Ukraine. Apart from the risk of nuclear escalation we simply don't have the forces to do so.
    What's your answer then? Let Putin's evil take over Ukraine, and cast a pall over Eastern Europe?

    Of course, you can always go over there and do one of the 'non-violent' protests you've trained for. That'd be fun to see. ;)
    No, I think it is reasonable to oppose by non military means, for example the sanctions package that Truss was announcing yesterday. I am actually in line with government on this, at least so far.

    Do you really want British troops there, fighting Russians face to face in the snow and mud?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited February 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    Shocking story coming out of Afghanistan. Only 3% of the population living above the poverty line. They are in serious danger of starvation. The UK government have a serious responsibility for whats going on. A good opportunity for Johnson to change the habit of a lifetime and try to do some good.

    Is that relative or absolute poverty? Makes a mockery of the word poverty to have it chopped and changed like that...
    The reported rates of malnutrition and severe malnutrition make a mockery of that question.
    What you are seeing in Afghanistan is simply the Goode Olde Days. Implemented by people who don't actually know how the Goode Olde Days worked, mind you.

    Feudal agriculture plus a bunch of warlords with the whole setup held together with religion. What does that remind you of?
    The Conservative Party and the C of E. One of us was positively lauding the feudal landowner lord of the manor plus peasants social structure as a recommendation for modern England during the Shropshire by-election.
    Last time I checked C of E priests were not stoning women for adultery and with the government throwing homosexuals off buildings and denouncing the US as Satan.

    Justin Welby has also yet to issue a Fatwa against apostates and non Anglicans!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    moonshine said:

    Justice Sec Dominic Raab refuses to repeat Boris Johnson’s false allegation - made under parliamentary privilege - that Keir Starmer as DPP protected Jimmy Savile.

    He describes it as the “normal cut and thrust of politics” but admits: “I can’t substantiate that claim”. #Today


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1488429760711639041?s=20&t=Y6r2wi2Vjfwjsq79dNDXHQ

    I’m confused. The parliamentary rules allow you to slander another MP by falsely accusing him of aiding and abetting a paedophile? But not to say than an MP has misled the house, when any objective reading of the facts is that he did?

    The whole system is a joke.
    And to be thrown out even when he offers to suggest that Mr Johnson had "inadvertently" misled the House.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Shocking story coming out of Afghanistan. Only 3% of the population living above the poverty line. They are in serious danger of starvation. The UK government have a serious responsibility for whats going on. A good opportunity for Johnson to change the habit of a lifetime and try to do some good.

    Is that relative or absolute poverty? Makes a mockery of the word poverty to have it chopped and changed like that.

    In my humble opinion we should wash our hands of Afghanistan and have absolutely no responsibility for the nation and absolutely no aid should be going there. We tried to be responsible for them, they rejected us an installed the Taliban instead.

    Let the Taliban take responsibility. You don't get to reject our help then say "but keep sending us money and food".
    It is outright terrible poverty. A Biblical Famine is emerging in Afghanistan

    However half of me, at least, feels like you. Enough. You want a mad Islamist government that hates the world? Here you go. This is what happens
    It's hard to resist isn't it? You didn't want to be ruled by incompetent lunatics? Why didn't you resist the takeover? Why didn't your army fight?

    But do we really want another couple of million Afghan refugees destabilising neighbouring countries and, inevitably, coming west?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    That’s that then, no VONC. Cowards.

    Actually it's not cowardice per se.

    Think about it, they try and VONC him, and he survives and then he's either charged or fined, he'll try and brazen it out, safe in the knowledge the party cannot oust him for 12 months.

    Better to wait until he's charged/fined.
    The threshold to remove him keeps moving up for arbitrary reasons. It now seems to be that he be found to have committed a criminal offence.
    Yes I noticed that too. Whereas until a few days ago it was about misleading (lying to) the House. Which he obviously did.
    The problem is that the Conservative Party has to find somebody to replace him who will not plunge it into a costly civil war whilst at the same time appearing plausible to the public at large. It needs to buy time to arrange this. This is the only explanation for its delay in removing the oaf.


    He's a goner, but what comes next is far from clear. If it goes badly for them, the Party could soon be replacing the LibDems as the third largest Party in Westminster.
    The LDs will never win more seats than the Tories.

    Only party that might is RefUK if they overtook the Tories as the main party of the right as Labour overtook the Liberals as the main party of the centre left early last century.

    The LDs are now split between centre right Orange Bookers and centre left social democrats
    You are describing the party 10 years ago. 11 of the party’s 13 MPs weren’t even in Parliament when The Orange Book came out.
    Davey is LD leader and was a Cabinet Minister in Cameron's government and even helped write the Orange Book.

    Boris of course never served in Cameron's Cabinet unlike Ed Davey
    Indeed. But how does that demonstrate your contention that the party is now split between Orange Bookers and social democrats?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Would someone with good knowledge re the Brady letters situation be able to clarify if, for example, he received the required number of letters this morning would he have to act immediately or does he have the agency to delay announcing?

    I’m just interested as with Boris in Ukraine one side of me thinks it would look terrible if our PM is away shoring up a country on the brink of invasion that he’s told he’s going to be VOC’d - wouldn’t look good to the world except Putin who would be laughing his head off.

    Alternatively it would look good as a message that it doesn’t matter who you are - if you fuck up in the UK you pay (ok not really….) and show that democratic countries are better than dictatorships….

    I’m going with the first view personally.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Cyclefree said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Can't make head or tail of Ms Cyclefree's last paragraph.

    She's already known to be an anti-Boris zealot so if it's aimed at stopping a war in Ukraine...

    Well at she's got good motives.

    Cyclefree is placing her faith, or at least her hope, in Priti, who can tell the Met to get a wriggle on. Then there's a bit of Macbeth (by Shakespeare).
    The hope is a very faint one indeed.

    But I would like Boris, Priti and Cressida Dick gone from public life.

    I believe that @Cyclefree was suggesting that Priti Patel should tell Cressida Dick that either the report is done by the wend of the week, or that Cressida Dick would be given a posting to the Falkland Islands.

    I would oppose that. A friend visited the place and found that the locals seem to like their police force and think it does a good job.

    A much better idea would be to send Cressida to America. She can mismanage the shootings of immigrant electricians on a daily basis there. And promoting her afterwards would seem perfectly normal.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Shocking story coming out of Afghanistan. Only 3% of the population living above the poverty line. They are in serious danger of starvation. The UK government have a serious responsibility for whats going on. A good opportunity for Johnson to change the habit of a lifetime and try to do some good.

    Is that relative or absolute poverty? Makes a mockery of the word poverty to have it chopped and changed like that.

    In my humble opinion we should wash our hands of Afghanistan and have absolutely no responsibility for the nation and absolutely no aid should be going there. We tried to be responsible for them, they rejected us an installed the Taliban instead.

    Let the Taliban take responsibility. You don't get to reject our help then say "but keep sending us money and food".
    It is outright terrible poverty. A Biblical Famine is emerging in Afghanistan

    However half of me, at least, feels like you. Enough. You want a mad Islamist government that hates the world? Here you go. This is what happens
    It's hard to resist isn't it? You didn't want to be ruled by incompetent lunatics? Why didn't you resist the takeover? Why didn't your army fight?

    But do we really want another couple of million Afghan refugees destabilising neighbouring countries and, inevitably, coming west?
    The army didn't fight because it barely existed because all the funds directed to it were fraudulently diverted, as was well known and widely reported in the US press throughout.
  • Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    That’s that then, no VONC. Cowards.

    Actually it's not cowardice per se.

    Think about it, they try and VONC him, and he survives and then he's either charged or fined, he'll try and brazen it out, safe in the knowledge the party cannot oust him for 12 months.

    Better to wait until he's charged/fined.
    The threshold to remove him keeps moving up for arbitrary reasons. It now seems to be that he be found to have committed a criminal offence.
    Yes I noticed that too. Whereas until a few days ago it was about misleading (lying to) the House. Which he obviously did.
    The problem is that the Conservative Party has to find somebody to replace him who will not plunge it into a costly civil war whilst at the same time appearing plausible to the public at large. It needs to buy time to arrange this. This is the only explanation for its delay in removing the oaf.


    He's a goner, but what comes next is far from clear. If it goes badly for them, the Party could soon be replacing the LibDems as the third largest Party in Westminster.
    The LibDems are the fourth largest party in Westminster but I take your point.
    Correct. I should of course have said in England.

    Noted with thanks and apologies to the SNP and its supporters.
    There’s a sentiment you don’t often see on PB 😉

    Cheers!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Shocking story coming out of Afghanistan. Only 3% of the population living above the poverty line. They are in serious danger of starvation. The UK government have a serious responsibility for whats going on. A good opportunity for Johnson to change the habit of a lifetime and try to do some good.

    Is that relative or absolute poverty? Makes a mockery of the word poverty to have it chopped and changed like that.

    In my humble opinion we should wash our hands of Afghanistan and have absolutely no responsibility for the nation and absolutely no aid should be going there. We tried to be responsible for them, they rejected us an installed the Taliban instead.

    Let the Taliban take responsibility. You don't get to reject our help then say "but keep sending us money and food".
    It is outright terrible poverty. A Biblical Famine is emerging in Afghanistan

    However half of me, at least, feels like you. Enough. You want a mad Islamist government that hates the world? Here you go. This is what happens
    It's hard to resist isn't it? You didn't want to be ruled by incompetent lunatics? Why didn't you resist the takeover? Why didn't your army fight?

    But do we really want another couple of million Afghan refugees destabilising neighbouring countries and, inevitably, coming west?
    Yes. The easy response is that a lot of Afghans must support or accept the Taliban or theyd not have remained strong enough to win after 20 years, and that's very frustrating, but it wont help us to not help them either.
  • Carnyx said:

    moonshine said:

    Justice Sec Dominic Raab refuses to repeat Boris Johnson’s false allegation - made under parliamentary privilege - that Keir Starmer as DPP protected Jimmy Savile.

    He describes it as the “normal cut and thrust of politics” but admits: “I can’t substantiate that claim”. #Today


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1488429760711639041?s=20&t=Y6r2wi2Vjfwjsq79dNDXHQ

    I’m confused. The parliamentary rules allow you to slander another MP by falsely accusing him of aiding and abetting a paedophile? But not to say than an MP has misled the house, when any objective reading of the facts is that he did?

    The whole system is a joke.
    And to be thrown out even when he offers to suggest that Mr Johnson had "inadvertently" misled the House.
    The whole point of the exchange was to end up getting thrown out. Guarantees reasonable coverage and makes the point effectively, but would not have been interesting outside the bubble if the speaker had let him stay.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    Shocking story coming out of Afghanistan. Only 3% of the population living above the poverty line. They are in serious danger of starvation. The UK government have a serious responsibility for whats going on. A good opportunity for Johnson to change the habit of a lifetime and try to do some good.

    Is that relative or absolute poverty? Makes a mockery of the word poverty to have it chopped and changed like that...
    The reported rates of malnutrition and severe malnutrition make a mockery of that question.
    What you are seeing in Afghanistan is simply the Goode Olde Days. Implemented by people who don't actually know how the Goode Olde Days worked, mind you.

    Feudal agriculture plus a bunch of warlords with the whole setup held together with religion. What does that remind you of?
    The Conservative Party and the C of E. One of us was positively lauding the feudal landowner lord of the manor plus peasants social structure as a recommendation for modern England during the Shropshire by-election.
    Last time I checked C of E priests were not stoning women for adultery and with the government throwing homosexuals off buildings and denouncing the US as Satan.

    Justin Welby has also yet to issue a Fatwa against apostates and non Anglicans!
    I didn't say they were. But now you mention it, I haven't seen him complaining about the fact that only C of E bishops get seats in the Lords, or have I missed something and he was advocating it for Jedi Knights, Buddhists, the Episcopal Church of Scotland, and the Moderator of the Free Church of Scotland (Continuing)?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    Unpopular said:

    Unpopular said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Boris intent on taking the Union down with him.

    Don't get this line at all.

    If you want the Union to stay, is BJ having his drinks parties going to make you think "you know what, I'll vote for independence?". Especially given all the question marks over Nicola S's own behaviour and what was exposed in the Salmond case? Yes, people might vote for another party as the main Unionist party but their #1 motivation factor is the...Union, not BJ.

    As poster Unpopular, a Unionist living in Scotland, put it on the previous thread:

    - “He, and notables around him, seem to go out their way to prove everything the SNP say about Westminster.”
    And is Unpopular going to now vote for independence off the back of BJ's behaviour?
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Boris intent on taking the Union down with him.

    Don't get this line at all.

    If you want the Union to stay, is BJ having his drinks parties going to make you think "you know what, I'll vote for independence?". Especially given all the question marks over Nicola S's own behaviour and what was exposed in the Salmond case? Yes, people might vote for another party as the main Unionist party but their #1 motivation factor is the...Union, not BJ.

    As poster Unpopular, a Unionist living in Scotland, put it on the previous thread:

    - “He, and notables around him, seem to go out their way to prove everything the SNP say about Westminster.”
    And is Unpopular going to now vote for independence off the back of BJ's behaviour?
    No, I'm a diehard Unionist. I can't really think of a realistic scenario under which I wouldn't vote to retain the Union. But that view is probably not the majority of Scots. The parties (or work events) aren't going to drive a vote for independence themselves but the impression that this government is acting as though the rules don't apply to them feeds into a narrative of unfairness and distance, which can be exploited by others offering an alternative. They can point to them and say 'These people are not like you, these people don't care about you.' In Scotland, because of the political dividing lines, this narrative is uniquely problematic for the Union.

    At the end of the day, if people don't feel included in the Union, if they feel that they are being taken for granted, or for fools, they won't stand it. Regardless of the economic benefits.
    You’re a new poster, and I like your style.

    Why are you still a Unionist?
    Is it sentiment, economics, both?
    Why thank you, long time lurker, but thought I'd get stuck in a bit. Would post more, but it takes me ages to think and then write what I mean.

    It's a bit of both, though I'm mainly a Unionist for sentiment, I guess. I'm not actually Scottish but Gisella Stewart's words on this really sums it up. She said she could never feel English, but she could be British (in a national sense). I think there's something to that, this shared identity (not universally felt, I know). I also think the Union is bigger than a single Government or political party. The United Kingdom is stronger and more influential in the world than it would be as its constituent parts. The economic benefits are, of course a part of it. I think we're richer together too and the economic opportunities the Union affords to English, Scottish, Welsh and Irish people are also greater than those that are afforded in the Nations.

    I try to be clear eyed about the future of the Union, and a Scottish partner helps with that. I think Westminster generally, and the Conservative Party in particular, are very complacent about the continued existence of the United Kingdom. Even though I support it, I know that the Union cannot long endure without the consent of the people of the four nations.
    Important post. Food for thought. @HYUFD ahem.

    I’m curious to know how the Conservative & Unionist Party plan to make the Union less unpopular/more popular. How (and when) are you lot actually going to start winning hearts and minds?
    As long as there is a Conservative government it will refuse indyref2.

    If Starmer becomes PM it will be up to him to win hearts and minds for the Union if he allows indyref2
  • Can someone give me a breakdown of why Wales and Scotland's Covid numbers are substantially lower than England's? What combination of restrictions and reporting differences has caused it, as it appears rather stark on the maps.

    Two competent governments and one incompetent one.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    Carnyx said:

    moonshine said:

    Justice Sec Dominic Raab refuses to repeat Boris Johnson’s false allegation - made under parliamentary privilege - that Keir Starmer as DPP protected Jimmy Savile.

    He describes it as the “normal cut and thrust of politics” but admits: “I can’t substantiate that claim”. #Today


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1488429760711639041?s=20&t=Y6r2wi2Vjfwjsq79dNDXHQ

    I’m confused. The parliamentary rules allow you to slander another MP by falsely accusing him of aiding and abetting a paedophile? But not to say than an MP has misled the house, when any objective reading of the facts is that he did?

    The whole system is a joke.
    And to be thrown out even when he offers to suggest that Mr Johnson had "inadvertently" misled the House.
    Well, in fairness, that was a false accusation.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    Cyclefree said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Can't make head or tail of Ms Cyclefree's last paragraph.

    She's already known to be an anti-Boris zealot so if it's aimed at stopping a war in Ukraine...

    Well at she's got good motives.

    Cyclefree is placing her faith, or at least her hope, in Priti, who can tell the Met to get a wriggle on. Then there's a bit of Macbeth (by Shakespeare).
    The hope is a very faint one indeed.

    But I would like Boris, Priti and Cressida Dick gone from public life.

    I believe that @Cyclefree was suggesting that Priti Patel should tell Cressida Dick that either the report is done by the wend of the week, or that Cressida Dick would be given a posting to the Falkland Islands.

    I would oppose that. A friend visited the place and found that the locals seem to like their police force and think it does a good job.

    A much better idea would be to send Cressida to America. She can mismanage the shootings of immigrant electricians on a daily basis there. And promoting her afterwards would seem perfectly normal.
    There has to be a US police department who need a new Police Chief. And her fire first approach as demonstrated back in July 2005 should answer any problems they have with the UK police not all having guns.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Carnyx said:

    moonshine said:

    Justice Sec Dominic Raab refuses to repeat Boris Johnson’s false allegation - made under parliamentary privilege - that Keir Starmer as DPP protected Jimmy Savile.

    He describes it as the “normal cut and thrust of politics” but admits: “I can’t substantiate that claim”. #Today


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1488429760711639041?s=20&t=Y6r2wi2Vjfwjsq79dNDXHQ

    I’m confused. The parliamentary rules allow you to slander another MP by falsely accusing him of aiding and abetting a paedophile? But not to say than an MP has misled the house, when any objective reading of the facts is that he did?

    The whole system is a joke.
    And to be thrown out even when he offers to suggest that Mr Johnson had "inadvertently" misled the House.
    The whole point of the exchange was to end up getting thrown out. Guarantees reasonable coverage and makes the point effectively, but would not have been interesting outside the bubble if the speaker had let him stay.
    No doubt; but I am still puzzled why his offer was not taken up.
  • HYUFD said:

    Unpopular said:

    Unpopular said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Boris intent on taking the Union down with him.

    Don't get this line at all.

    If you want the Union to stay, is BJ having his drinks parties going to make you think "you know what, I'll vote for independence?". Especially given all the question marks over Nicola S's own behaviour and what was exposed in the Salmond case? Yes, people might vote for another party as the main Unionist party but their #1 motivation factor is the...Union, not BJ.

    As poster Unpopular, a Unionist living in Scotland, put it on the previous thread:

    - “He, and notables around him, seem to go out their way to prove everything the SNP say about Westminster.”
    And is Unpopular going to now vote for independence off the back of BJ's behaviour?
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Boris intent on taking the Union down with him.

    Don't get this line at all.

    If you want the Union to stay, is BJ having his drinks parties going to make you think "you know what, I'll vote for independence?". Especially given all the question marks over Nicola S's own behaviour and what was exposed in the Salmond case? Yes, people might vote for another party as the main Unionist party but their #1 motivation factor is the...Union, not BJ.

    As poster Unpopular, a Unionist living in Scotland, put it on the previous thread:

    - “He, and notables around him, seem to go out their way to prove everything the SNP say about Westminster.”
    And is Unpopular going to now vote for independence off the back of BJ's behaviour?
    No, I'm a diehard Unionist. I can't really think of a realistic scenario under which I wouldn't vote to retain the Union. But that view is probably not the majority of Scots. The parties (or work events) aren't going to drive a vote for independence themselves but the impression that this government is acting as though the rules don't apply to them feeds into a narrative of unfairness and distance, which can be exploited by others offering an alternative. They can point to them and say 'These people are not like you, these people don't care about you.' In Scotland, because of the political dividing lines, this narrative is uniquely problematic for the Union.

    At the end of the day, if people don't feel included in the Union, if they feel that they are being taken for granted, or for fools, they won't stand it. Regardless of the economic benefits.
    You’re a new poster, and I like your style.

    Why are you still a Unionist?
    Is it sentiment, economics, both?
    Why thank you, long time lurker, but thought I'd get stuck in a bit. Would post more, but it takes me ages to think and then write what I mean.

    It's a bit of both, though I'm mainly a Unionist for sentiment, I guess. I'm not actually Scottish but Gisella Stewart's words on this really sums it up. She said she could never feel English, but she could be British (in a national sense). I think there's something to that, this shared identity (not universally felt, I know). I also think the Union is bigger than a single Government or political party. The United Kingdom is stronger and more influential in the world than it would be as its constituent parts. The economic benefits are, of course a part of it. I think we're richer together too and the economic opportunities the Union affords to English, Scottish, Welsh and Irish people are also greater than those that are afforded in the Nations.

    I try to be clear eyed about the future of the Union, and a Scottish partner helps with that. I think Westminster generally, and the Conservative Party in particular, are very complacent about the continued existence of the United Kingdom. Even though I support it, I know that the Union cannot long endure without the consent of the people of the four nations.
    Important post. Food for thought. @HYUFD ahem.

    I’m curious to know how the Conservative & Unionist Party plan to make the Union less unpopular/more popular. How (and when) are you lot actually going to start winning hearts and minds?
    As long as there is a Conservative government it will refuse indyref2.

    If Starmer becomes PM it will be up to him to win hearts and minds for the Union if he allows indyref2
    Should not that be WHEN ?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    boulay said:

    Would someone with good knowledge re the Brady letters situation be able to clarify if, for example, he received the required number of letters this morning would he have to act immediately or does he have the agency to delay announcing?

    I’m just interested as with Boris in Ukraine one side of me thinks it would look terrible if our PM is away shoring up a country on the brink of invasion that he’s told he’s going to be VOC’d - wouldn’t look good to the world except Putin who would be laughing his head off.

    Alternatively it would look good as a message that it doesn’t matter who you are - if you fuck up in the UK you pay (ok not really….) and show that democratic countries are better than dictatorships….

    I’m going with the first view personally.

    There aren't anything close to 54 letters so it's not an actual problem.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Takes a peek. Sees that we are all still talking about birthday cake. goes back to lurking for a few more days.

    Meanwhile, apropos of nothing, the PM is in Kiev today for a meeting with President Zelensky. Ukraine is getting worried that US interests and media are unnecessarily talking up the chances of a Russian invasion this month. There’s a fine line to tread between being supportive of an ally, and antagonising the Russians which makes the conflict more likely to happen.

    Putin needs permission and political coverage from Xi to invade Ukraine. That isn't going to be forthcoming while it will fuck up the Winter Olympics so no invasion until the 21st.
    Covid is doing a pretty good job of that anyway. Maybe Xi will authorise the invasion to draw attention away from the games and the inevitable disastrous consequences of going ahead with them.
    My big fear is that Xi makes a play for Taiwan at the same time - i.e. during the Olympics. The US, UK and allies will not be able to put substantial aid to both Ukraine and Taiwan, and China will have lots of hostages guests staying for the Olympics.

    It's unlikely, but would be a good way for both to achieve their goals.
    A Xi invasion of Taiwan could be
    coordinated with a Putin invasion of Ukraine.

    It makes sense for them as they know the West will not go to war to defend Ukraine or Taiwan, only a NATO nation, South Korea or Japan.


    Yougov finds meanwhile a majority of Germans and a plurality of voters in most other NATO nations oppose going to war with Russia if it invades Ukraine. Only a plurality of Americans and Danes favour going to war with Russia over the Ukraine but even then only 38% of Danes and 35% of Russians back war. Britons are split

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1488111850017406976?s=20&t=eh6ET0EsIAeXxNtKWoTyaQ
    It is absolutely insane that 30% of Britons want a war with Russia if they invade Ukraine. Apart from the risk of nuclear escalation we simply don't have the forces to do so.
    Mmm, that 30% figure is remarkably similar to the Conservative vote at the moment. Wonder if there is an overlap 😊 ?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Shocking story coming out of Afghanistan. Only 3% of the population living above the poverty line. They are in serious danger of starvation. The UK government have a serious responsibility for whats going on. A good opportunity for Johnson to change the habit of a lifetime and try to do some good.

    Is that relative or absolute poverty? Makes a mockery of the word poverty to have it chopped and changed like that.

    In my humble opinion we should wash our hands of Afghanistan and have absolutely no responsibility for the nation and absolutely no aid should be going there. We tried to be responsible for them, they rejected us an installed the Taliban instead.

    Let the Taliban take responsibility. You don't get to reject our help then say "but keep sending us money and food".
    It is outright terrible poverty. A Biblical Famine is emerging in Afghanistan

    However half of me, at least, feels like you. Enough. You want a mad Islamist government that hates the world? Here you go. This is what happens
    It's hard to resist isn't it? You didn't want to be ruled by incompetent lunatics? Why didn't you resist the takeover? Why didn't your army fight?

    But do we really want another couple of million Afghan refugees destabilising neighbouring countries and, inevitably, coming west?
    The army didn't fight because it barely existed because all the funds directed to it were fraudulently diverted, as was well known and widely reported in the US press throughout.
    No, it existed. What didn't exist was belief in the system that the Americans et al had constructed. So the top people did a deal with the Taliban to get out of town with some bags of money. They gave stand down orders as part of the game.

    This caused a rapid chain reaction as people down the chain tried to make their own deals or simply ran. The soldiers on the front line found that either their commanders were telling them not to fight, or that all support and re-supply was cut off. Or both.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    The absolute tragedy of Afghanistan is that in the last 20 years America, the UK and other western allies have poured ONE TRILLION dollars in military and other aid, into Afghanistan

    Afghanistan has a population of 38 million

    So let's say the population has averaged 35 million in the last 20 years.

    We could have given each Afghani $30,000 instead, every man woman child baby. That's almost half a lifetime's salary, for every single person, in a country with a per capita income of $2000

    Or we could have given each household (they are large) $300,000. Enormous wealth. Enough to buy livestock, land, machines, everything

    And now Afghanistan would be prosperous. Or at least they would not be fucking starving
  • HYUFD said:

    Unpopular said:

    Unpopular said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Boris intent on taking the Union down with him.

    Don't get this line at all.

    If you want the Union to stay, is BJ having his drinks parties going to make you think "you know what, I'll vote for independence?". Especially given all the question marks over Nicola S's own behaviour and what was exposed in the Salmond case? Yes, people might vote for another party as the main Unionist party but their #1 motivation factor is the...Union, not BJ.

    As poster Unpopular, a Unionist living in Scotland, put it on the previous thread:

    - “He, and notables around him, seem to go out their way to prove everything the SNP say about Westminster.”
    And is Unpopular going to now vote for independence off the back of BJ's behaviour?
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Boris intent on taking the Union down with him.

    Don't get this line at all.

    If you want the Union to stay, is BJ having his drinks parties going to make you think "you know what, I'll vote for independence?". Especially given all the question marks over Nicola S's own behaviour and what was exposed in the Salmond case? Yes, people might vote for another party as the main Unionist party but their #1 motivation factor is the...Union, not BJ.

    As poster Unpopular, a Unionist living in Scotland, put it on the previous thread:

    - “He, and notables around him, seem to go out their way to prove everything the SNP say about Westminster.”
    And is Unpopular going to now vote for independence off the back of BJ's behaviour?
    No, I'm a diehard Unionist. I can't really think of a realistic scenario under which I wouldn't vote to retain the Union. But that view is probably not the majority of Scots. The parties (or work events) aren't going to drive a vote for independence themselves but the impression that this government is acting as though the rules don't apply to them feeds into a narrative of unfairness and distance, which can be exploited by others offering an alternative. They can point to them and say 'These people are not like you, these people don't care about you.' In Scotland, because of the political dividing lines, this narrative is uniquely problematic for the Union.

    At the end of the day, if people don't feel included in the Union, if they feel that they are being taken for granted, or for fools, they won't stand it. Regardless of the economic benefits.
    You’re a new poster, and I like your style.

    Why are you still a Unionist?
    Is it sentiment, economics, both?
    Why thank you, long time lurker, but thought I'd get stuck in a bit. Would post more, but it takes me ages to think and then write what I mean.

    It's a bit of both, though I'm mainly a Unionist for sentiment, I guess. I'm not actually Scottish but Gisella Stewart's words on this really sums it up. She said she could never feel English, but she could be British (in a national sense). I think there's something to that, this shared identity (not universally felt, I know). I also think the Union is bigger than a single Government or political party. The United Kingdom is stronger and more influential in the world than it would be as its constituent parts. The economic benefits are, of course a part of it. I think we're richer together too and the economic opportunities the Union affords to English, Scottish, Welsh and Irish people are also greater than those that are afforded in the Nations.

    I try to be clear eyed about the future of the Union, and a Scottish partner helps with that. I think Westminster generally, and the Conservative Party in particular, are very complacent about the continued existence of the United Kingdom. Even though I support it, I know that the Union cannot long endure without the consent of the people of the four nations.
    Important post. Food for thought. @HYUFD ahem.

    I’m curious to know how the Conservative & Unionist Party plan to make the Union less unpopular/more popular. How (and when) are you lot actually going to start winning hearts and minds?
    As long as there is a Conservative government it will refuse indyref2.

    If Starmer becomes PM it will be up to him to win hearts and minds for the Union if he allows indyref2
    Why is it exclusively Labour’s responsibility to nurture the Union? When did Tories stop caring?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    moonshine said:

    Justice Sec Dominic Raab refuses to repeat Boris Johnson’s false allegation - made under parliamentary privilege - that Keir Starmer as DPP protected Jimmy Savile.

    He describes it as the “normal cut and thrust of politics” but admits: “I can’t substantiate that claim”. #Today


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1488429760711639041?s=20&t=Y6r2wi2Vjfwjsq79dNDXHQ

    I’m confused. The parliamentary rules allow you to slander another MP by falsely accusing him of aiding and abetting a paedophile? But not to say than an MP has misled the house, when any objective reading of the facts is that he did?

    The whole system is a joke.
    And to be thrown out even when he offers to suggest that Mr Johnson had "inadvertently" misled the House.
    Well, in fairness, that was a false accusation.
    Ah, I suppose so, yes: that the PM didn't know what he was saying? But that would delete the mens rea element and obviate the 'liar' accusation anyway. I thought also from what someone said on PB that it was still OK to say someone had inadvertently misled the house.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572

    Can someone give me a breakdown of why Wales and Scotland's Covid numbers are substantially lower than England's? What combination of restrictions and reporting differences has caused it, as it appears rather stark on the maps.

    Two competent governments and one incompetent one.
    That's very harsh on Sturgeon.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Tories must ditch disastrous, doomed Johnson, says @HCH_Hill of @ConHome on Reaction @reactionlife. Are Tory MPs really going to spend two years sitting behind him, like a gallery of haunted paintings, as he heads for defeat in the next election? https://reaction.life/tories-must-ditch-disastrous-doomed-johnson/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,630
    edited February 2022
    Professionally, when I want to accuse someone of lying I use the term ‘fundamental inaccuracy’.

    Sir, your evidence in your statement from December 8th contains a plethora of fundamental inaccuracies.

    Should be fine in The Commons.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Takes a peek. Sees that we are all still talking about birthday cake. goes back to lurking for a few more days.

    Meanwhile, apropos of nothing, the PM is in Kiev today for a meeting with President Zelensky. Ukraine is getting worried that US interests and media are unnecessarily talking up the chances of a Russian invasion this month. There’s a fine line to tread between being supportive of an ally, and antagonising the Russians which makes the conflict more likely to happen.

    Putin needs permission and political coverage from Xi to invade Ukraine. That isn't going to be forthcoming while it will fuck up the Winter Olympics so no invasion until the 21st.
    Covid is doing a pretty good job of that anyway. Maybe Xi will authorise the invasion to draw attention away from the games and the inevitable disastrous consequences of going ahead with them.
    My big fear is that Xi makes a play for Taiwan at the same time - i.e. during the Olympics. The US, UK and allies will not be able to put substantial aid to both Ukraine and Taiwan, and China will have lots of hostages guests staying for the Olympics.

    It's unlikely, but would be a good way for both to achieve their goals.
    A Xi invasion of Taiwan could be
    coordinated with a Putin invasion of Ukraine.

    It makes sense for them as they know the West will not go to war to defend Ukraine or Taiwan, only a NATO nation, South Korea or Japan.


    Yougov finds meanwhile a majority of Germans and a plurality of voters in most other NATO nations oppose going to war with Russia if it invades Ukraine. Only a plurality of Americans and Danes favour going to war with Russia over the Ukraine but even then only 38% of Danes and 35% of Russians back war. Britons are split

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1488111850017406976?s=20&t=eh6ET0EsIAeXxNtKWoTyaQ
    It is absolutely insane that 30% of Britons want a war with Russia if they invade Ukraine. Apart from the risk of nuclear escalation we simply don't have the forces to do so.
    I think this is an example of people answering a different question to that asked, and it's really about demonstrating worry and concern about the situation.

    Ultimately Ukraine is on it's own in any invasion scenario and everyone knows it.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    edited February 2022
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Takes a peek. Sees that we are all still talking about birthday cake. goes back to lurking for a few more days.

    Meanwhile, apropos of nothing, the PM is in Kiev today for a meeting with President Zelensky. Ukraine is getting worried that US interests and media are unnecessarily talking up the chances of a Russian invasion this month. There’s a fine line to tread between being supportive of an ally, and antagonising the Russians which makes the conflict more likely to happen.

    Putin needs permission and political coverage from Xi to invade Ukraine. That isn't going to be forthcoming while it will fuck up the Winter Olympics so no invasion until the 21st.
    Covid is doing a pretty good job of that anyway. Maybe Xi will authorise the invasion to draw attention away from the games and the inevitable disastrous consequences of going ahead with them.
    My big fear is that Xi makes a play for Taiwan at the same time - i.e. during the Olympics. The US, UK and allies will not be able to put substantial aid to both Ukraine and Taiwan, and China will have lots of hostages guests staying for the Olympics.

    It's unlikely, but would be a good way for both to achieve their goals.
    A Xi invasion of Taiwan could be
    coordinated with a Putin invasion of Ukraine.

    It makes sense for them as they know the West will not go to war to defend Ukraine or Taiwan, only a NATO nation, South Korea or Japan.


    Yougov finds meanwhile a majority of Germans and a plurality of voters in most other NATO nations oppose going to war with Russia if it invades Ukraine. Only a plurality of Americans and Danes favour going to war with Russia over the Ukraine but even then only 38% of Danes and 35% of Russians back war. Britons are split

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1488111850017406976?s=20&t=eh6ET0EsIAeXxNtKWoTyaQ
    It is absolutely insane that 30% of Britons want a war with Russia if they invade Ukraine. Apart from the risk of nuclear escalation we simply don't have the forces to do so.
    @HYFUD's point is a fair one though. Get the Beijing Olympics out of the way and then two coordinated attacks. There will be never be a better time for either - doddering US President, split EU etc. The only thing that would probably both stop both would be nuclear weapons and both leaders will be betting on (probably correctly) that the public does not want to go to that stage.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited February 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Email sent this morning

    Dear Sir Geoffrey

    After yesterday's Commons performance I have to tell you that I shall never vote Conservative while Boris Johnson remains in office, and never vote for any candidate currently taking the Conservative whip unless Johnson is forced out by the party by the end of this month.

    I have voted Conservative in every GE since 1979 with one exception, and my principal interest in life is trail hunting. I am therefore fairly representative of a fairly large part of your core vote.

    Ishmael xx

    Full marks for optimism triumphing over expectation.

    And Brownie points for the 2 kisses. Why no hug?
  • boulay said:

    Would someone with good knowledge re the Brady letters situation be able to clarify if, for example, he received the required number of letters this morning would he have to act immediately or does he have the agency to delay announcing?

    I’m just interested as with Boris in Ukraine one side of me thinks it would look terrible if our PM is away shoring up a country on the brink of invasion that he’s told he’s going to be VOC’d - wouldn’t look good to the world except Putin who would be laughing his head off.

    Alternatively it would look good as a message that it doesn’t matter who you are - if you fuck up in the UK you pay (ok not really….) and show that democratic countries are better than dictatorships….

    I’m going with the first view personally.

    A country (and political party) that can change PMs in the middle of World Wars and ditch a long-serving and very influential one with British troops on the ground in the Middle East within living memory is more than capable of ditching the current incompetent. I hope.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    Professionally, when I want to accuse someone of lying I use the term ‘fundamental inaccuracy’.

    Sir, your evidence in your statement from December contains a plethora of fundamental inaccuracies.

    Should be fine in The Commons.

    Good one. All should share their euphemisms.

    If I want to say something is bollocks I say it "does not withstand reasonable analysis'.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Can't make head or tail of Ms Cyclefree's last paragraph.

    She's already known to be an anti-Boris zealot so if it's aimed at stopping a war in Ukraine...

    Well at she's got good motives.

    Cyclefree is placing her faith, or at least her hope, in Priti, who can tell the Met to get a wriggle on. Then there's a bit of Macbeth (by Shakespeare).
    The hope is a very faint one indeed.

    But I would like Boris, Priti and Cressida Dick gone from public life.

    I believe that @Cyclefree was suggesting that Priti Patel should tell Cressida Dick that either the report is done by the wend of the week, or that Cressida Dick would be given a posting to the Falkland Islands.

    I would oppose that. A friend visited the place and found that the locals seem to like their police force and think it does a good job.

    A much better idea would be to send Cressida to America. She can mismanage the shootings of immigrant electricians on a daily basis there. And promoting her afterwards would seem perfectly normal.
    There has to be a US police department who need a new Police Chief. And her fire first approach as demonstrated back in July 2005 should answer any problems they have with the UK police not all having guns.
    To be fair, the her demonstrated rate of fucked up shooting is so low, that she would probably be supported by BLM for any such job.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Shocking story coming out of Afghanistan. Only 3% of the population living above the poverty line. They are in serious danger of starvation. The UK government have a serious responsibility for whats going on. A good opportunity for Johnson to change the habit of a lifetime and try to do some good.

    Is that relative or absolute poverty? Makes a mockery of the word poverty to have it chopped and changed like that.

    In my humble opinion we should wash our hands of Afghanistan and have absolutely no responsibility for the nation and absolutely no aid should be going there. We tried to be responsible for them, they rejected us an installed the Taliban instead.

    Let the Taliban take responsibility. You don't get to reject our help then say "but keep sending us money and food".
    It is outright terrible poverty. A Biblical Famine is emerging in Afghanistan

    However half of me, at least, feels like you. Enough. You want a mad Islamist government that hates the world? Here you go. This is what happens
    It's hard to resist isn't it? You didn't want to be ruled by incompetent lunatics? Why didn't you resist the takeover? Why didn't your army fight?

    But do we really want another couple of million Afghan refugees destabilising neighbouring countries and, inevitably, coming west?
    To be honest, I don't see any good answer

    Afghanistan is hurtling towards disaster. Ideally we should help. But we've just spent 20 years "helping", at vast expense and with many western lives lost, and its ended like this

    Why on earth should a single British penny or American cent go to the Taliban to be "distributed" to the poor, with most of it inevitably siphoned off to buy guns for the Taliban (and gold taps, and trafficked girls)? Because that is the only way it can be done and that is what will happen, and in the end the guns they buy will be turned on US

    This may be one famine we just have to watch. Horrified. But paralysed.

    And perhaps it is time for China to step up
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    Scott_xP said:

    Tories must ditch disastrous, doomed Johnson, says @HCH_Hill of @ConHome on Reaction @reactionlife. Are Tory MPs really going to spend two years sitting behind him, like a gallery of haunted paintings, as he heads for defeat in the next election? https://reaction.life/tories-must-ditch-disastrous-doomed-johnson/

    Remarkable if they do. Saddling themselves with Johnson as leader in the first place was bad enough, but leaving him there in the present circumstances, in the moral certainty that the report when published is going to be scathing, suggests a party that has lost the will to live.
  • boulay said:

    Would someone with good knowledge re the Brady letters situation be able to clarify if, for example, he received the required number of letters this morning would he have to act immediately or does he have the agency to delay announcing?

    From vague memory of the May regime, Brady would get his deputy to check the count but also would contact each sender to check their letter (that might have been sent weeks or months ago) was still current. Announcement would come after the Prime Minister had been informed. What is mobile reception like inside a Ukrainian fridge? Others closer to the Conservative Party or who pay attention will be better informed as to 1922 procedures.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Takes a peek. Sees that we are all still talking about birthday cake. goes back to lurking for a few more days.

    Meanwhile, apropos of nothing, the PM is in Kiev today for a meeting with President Zelensky. Ukraine is getting worried that US interests and media are unnecessarily talking up the chances of a Russian invasion this month. There’s a fine line to tread between being supportive of an ally, and antagonising the Russians which makes the conflict more likely to happen.

    Putin needs permission and political coverage from Xi to invade Ukraine. That isn't going to be forthcoming while it will fuck up the Winter Olympics so no invasion until the 21st.
    Covid is doing a pretty good job of that anyway. Maybe Xi will authorise the invasion to draw attention away from the games and the inevitable disastrous consequences of going ahead with them.
    My big fear is that Xi makes a play for Taiwan at the same time - i.e. during the Olympics. The US, UK and allies will not be able to put substantial aid to both Ukraine and Taiwan, and China will have lots of hostages guests staying for the Olympics.

    It's unlikely, but would be a good way for both to achieve their goals.
    A Xi invasion of Taiwan could be
    coordinated with a Putin invasion of Ukraine.

    It makes sense for them as they know the West will not go to war to defend Ukraine or Taiwan, only a NATO nation, South Korea or Japan.


    Yougov finds meanwhile a majority of Germans and a plurality of voters in most other NATO nations oppose going to war with Russia if it invades Ukraine. Only a plurality of Americans and Danes favour going to war with Russia over the Ukraine but even then only 38% of Danes and 35% of Russians back war. Britons are split

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1488111850017406976?s=20&t=eh6ET0EsIAeXxNtKWoTyaQ
    It is absolutely insane that 30% of Britons want a war with Russia if they invade Ukraine. Apart from the risk of nuclear escalation we simply don't have the forces to do so.
    @HYFUD's point is a fair one though. Get the Beijing Olympics out of the way and then two coordinated attacks. There will be never be a better time for either - doddering US President, split EU etc. The only thing that would probably both stop both would be nuclear weapons and both leaders will be betting on (probably correctly) that the public does not want to go to that stage.
    Indeed, if Poland and Japan are invaded the West would have to go to War.

    If Ukraine and Taiwan are invaded however, Putin and Xi are probably correct neither Biden nor the rest of the West would go to war to defend them
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Takes a peek. Sees that we are all still talking about birthday cake. goes back to lurking for a few more days.

    Meanwhile, apropos of nothing, the PM is in Kiev today for a meeting with President Zelensky. Ukraine is getting worried that US interests and media are unnecessarily talking up the chances of a Russian invasion this month. There’s a fine line to tread between being supportive of an ally, and antagonising the Russians which makes the conflict more likely to happen.

    Putin needs permission and political coverage from Xi to invade Ukraine. That isn't going to be forthcoming while it will fuck up the Winter Olympics so no invasion until the 21st.
    Covid is doing a pretty good job of that anyway. Maybe Xi will authorise the invasion to draw attention away from the games and the inevitable disastrous consequences of going ahead with them.
    My big fear is that Xi makes a play for Taiwan at the same time - i.e. during the Olympics. The US, UK and allies will not be able to put substantial aid to both Ukraine and Taiwan, and China will have lots of hostages guests staying for the Olympics.

    It's unlikely, but would be a good way for both to achieve their goals.
    A Xi invasion of Taiwan could be
    coordinated with a Putin invasion of Ukraine.

    It makes sense for them as they know the West will not go to war to defend Ukraine or Taiwan, only a NATO nation, South Korea or Japan.


    Yougov finds meanwhile a majority of Germans and a plurality of voters in most other NATO nations oppose going to war with Russia if it invades Ukraine. Only a plurality of Americans and Danes favour going to war with Russia over the Ukraine but even then only 38% of Danes and 35% of Russians back war. Britons are split

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1488111850017406976?s=20&t=eh6ET0EsIAeXxNtKWoTyaQ
    It is absolutely insane that 30% of Britons want a war with Russia if they invade Ukraine. Apart from the risk of nuclear escalation we simply don't have the forces to do so.
    I think this is an example of people answering a different question to that asked, and it's really about demonstrating worry and concern about the situation.

    Ultimately Ukraine is on it's own in any invasion scenario and everyone knows it.
    On its own, apart from a mountain of state of the art weaponry.

    And satellite intel on where every single Russian troop is positioned.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Chris said:

    Saddling themselves with Johnson as leader in the first place was bad enough, but leaving him there in the present circumstances, in the moral certainty that the report when published is going to be scathing, suggests a party that has lost the will to live.

    Which is why Raab is doing the rounds this morning saying the report may never be published
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Is there a chance yesterday's "update" is all we get?

    Dominic Raab said this morning it is "not clear" whether anything else would be added to a further report from Sue Gray - and tried to claim on Sky News the report had already been published "in full"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/02/01/boris-johnson-sue-gray-report-parties-met-police-ukraine/
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    The smear made against Keir Starmer relating to Jimmy Saville yesterday is wrong & cannot be defended. It should be withdrawn. False and baseless personal slurs are dangerous, corrode trust & can't just be accepted as part of the cut & thrust of parliamentary debate.
    https://twitter.com/JulianSmithUK/status/1488436899215818753
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Takes a peek. Sees that we are all still talking about birthday cake. goes back to lurking for a few more days.

    Meanwhile, apropos of nothing, the PM is in Kiev today for a meeting with President Zelensky. Ukraine is getting worried that US interests and media are unnecessarily talking up the chances of a Russian invasion this month. There’s a fine line to tread between being supportive of an ally, and antagonising the Russians which makes the conflict more likely to happen.

    Putin needs permission and political coverage from Xi to invade Ukraine. That isn't going to be forthcoming while it will fuck up the Winter Olympics so no invasion until the 21st.
    Covid is doing a pretty good job of that anyway. Maybe Xi will authorise the invasion to draw attention away from the games and the inevitable disastrous consequences of going ahead with them.
    My big fear is that Xi makes a play for Taiwan at the same time - i.e. during the Olympics. The US, UK and allies will not be able to put substantial aid to both Ukraine and Taiwan, and China will have lots of hostages guests staying for the Olympics.

    It's unlikely, but would be a good way for both to achieve their goals.
    A Xi invasion of Taiwan could be
    coordinated with a Putin invasion of Ukraine.

    It makes sense for them as they know the West will not go to war to defend Ukraine or Taiwan, only a NATO nation, South Korea or Japan.


    Yougov finds meanwhile a majority of Germans and a plurality of voters in most other NATO nations oppose going to war with Russia if it invades Ukraine. Only a plurality of Americans and Danes favour going to war with Russia over the Ukraine but even then only 38% of Danes and 35% of Russians back war. Britons are split

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1488111850017406976?s=20&t=eh6ET0EsIAeXxNtKWoTyaQ
    It is absolutely insane that 30% of Britons want a war with Russia if they invade Ukraine. Apart from the risk of nuclear escalation we simply don't have the forces to do so.
    Define going to war

    - declaring war
    - declaring war and sanctions
    - declaring war and sending more military aid
    - declaring war and send only ships and aircraft
    - declaring war and sending a token number of troops, plus ships and aircraft
    - declaring war and sending a meaningful ground forces.

    I suspect that people on that survey were thinking of one of those options.

    That and the sad fact that if Putin goes on tour, again, he will have another territorial demand beyond that. And he is running out places that aren't in NATO/EU to go on tour in.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Takes a peek. Sees that we are all still talking about birthday cake. goes back to lurking for a few more days.

    Meanwhile, apropos of nothing, the PM is in Kiev today for a meeting with President Zelensky. Ukraine is getting worried that US interests and media are unnecessarily talking up the chances of a Russian invasion this month. There’s a fine line to tread between being supportive of an ally, and antagonising the Russians which makes the conflict more likely to happen.

    Putin needs permission and political coverage from Xi to invade Ukraine. That isn't going to be forthcoming while it will fuck up the Winter Olympics so no invasion until the 21st.
    Covid is doing a pretty good job of that anyway. Maybe Xi will authorise the invasion to draw attention away from the games and the inevitable disastrous consequences of going ahead with them.
    My big fear is that Xi makes a play for Taiwan at the same time - i.e. during the Olympics. The US, UK and allies will not be able to put substantial aid to both Ukraine and Taiwan, and China will have lots of hostages guests staying for the Olympics.

    It's unlikely, but would be a good way for both to achieve their goals.
    A Xi invasion of Taiwan could be
    coordinated with a Putin invasion of Ukraine.

    It makes sense for them as they know the West will not go to war to defend Ukraine or Taiwan, only a NATO nation, South Korea or Japan.


    Yougov finds meanwhile a majority of Germans and a plurality of voters in most other NATO nations oppose going to war with Russia if it invades Ukraine. Only a plurality of Americans and Danes favour going to war with Russia over the Ukraine but even then only 38% of Danes and 35% of Russians back war. Britons are split

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1488111850017406976?s=20&t=eh6ET0EsIAeXxNtKWoTyaQ
    It is absolutely insane that 30% of Britons want a war with Russia if they invade Ukraine. Apart from the risk of nuclear escalation we simply don't have the forces to do so.
    I think this is an example of people answering a different question to that asked, and it's really about demonstrating worry and concern about the situation.

    Ultimately Ukraine is on it's own in any invasion scenario and everyone knows it.
    On its own, apart from a mountain of state of the art weaponry.

    And satellite intel on where every single Russian troop is positioned.
    The answer was in the context of a question about sharing in the fighting itself.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Dominic Raab tells @TimesRadio that Boris Johnson's claim that Keir Starmer failed to prosecute Jimmy Savile is part of the 'cut and thrust' of debate

    He says it's right that there's scrutiny of Starmer's time as DPP

    @JulianSmithUK - a former chief whip - says this is a smear


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1488437903516704769
    https://twitter.com/JulianSmithUK/status/1488436899215818753
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Shocking story coming out of Afghanistan. Only 3% of the population living above the poverty line. They are in serious danger of starvation. The UK government have a serious responsibility for whats going on. A good opportunity for Johnson to change the habit of a lifetime and try to do some good.

    Is that relative or absolute poverty? Makes a mockery of the word poverty to have it chopped and changed like that.

    In my humble opinion we should wash our hands of Afghanistan and have absolutely no responsibility for the nation and absolutely no aid should be going there. We tried to be responsible for them, they rejected us an installed the Taliban instead.

    Let the Taliban take responsibility. You don't get to reject our help then say "but keep sending us money and food".
    It is outright terrible poverty. A Biblical Famine is emerging in Afghanistan

    However half of me, at least, feels like you. Enough. You want a mad Islamist government that hates the world? Here you go. This is what happens
    It's hard to resist isn't it? You didn't want to be ruled by incompetent lunatics? Why didn't you resist the takeover? Why didn't your army fight?

    But do we really want another couple of million Afghan refugees destabilising neighbouring countries and, inevitably, coming west?
    To be honest, I don't see any good answer

    Afghanistan is hurtling towards disaster. Ideally we should help. But we've just spent 20 years "helping", at vast expense and with many western lives lost, and its ended like this

    Why on earth should a single British penny or American cent go to the Taliban to be "distributed" to the poor, with most of it inevitably siphoned off to buy guns for the Taliban (and gold taps, and trafficked girls)? Because that is the only way it can be done and that is what will happen, and in the end the guns they buy will be turned on US

    This may be one famine we just have to watch. Horrified. But paralysed.

    And perhaps it is time for China to step up
    For a bunch of muslims?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Takes a peek. Sees that we are all still talking about birthday cake. goes back to lurking for a few more days.

    Meanwhile, apropos of nothing, the PM is in Kiev today for a meeting with President Zelensky. Ukraine is getting worried that US interests and media are unnecessarily talking up the chances of a Russian invasion this month. There’s a fine line to tread between being supportive of an ally, and antagonising the Russians which makes the conflict more likely to happen.

    Putin needs permission and political coverage from Xi to invade Ukraine. That isn't going to be forthcoming while it will fuck up the Winter Olympics so no invasion until the 21st.
    Covid is doing a pretty good job of that anyway. Maybe Xi will authorise the invasion to draw attention away from the games and the inevitable disastrous consequences of going ahead with them.
    My big fear is that Xi makes a play for Taiwan at the same time - i.e. during the Olympics. The US, UK and allies will not be able to put substantial aid to both Ukraine and Taiwan, and China will have lots of hostages guests staying for the Olympics.

    It's unlikely, but would be a good way for both to achieve their goals.
    A Xi invasion of Taiwan could be
    coordinated with a Putin invasion of Ukraine.

    It makes sense for them as they know the West will not go to war to defend Ukraine or Taiwan, only a NATO nation, South Korea or Japan.


    Yougov finds meanwhile a majority of Germans and a plurality of voters in most other NATO nations oppose going to war with Russia if it invades Ukraine. Only a plurality of Americans and Danes favour going to war with Russia over the Ukraine but even then only 38% of Danes and 35% of Russians back war. Britons are split

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1488111850017406976?s=20&t=eh6ET0EsIAeXxNtKWoTyaQ
    It is absolutely insane that 30% of Britons want a war with Russia if they invade Ukraine. Apart from the risk of nuclear escalation we simply don't have the forces to do so.
    What's your answer then? Let Putin's evil take over Ukraine, and cast a pall over Eastern Europe?

    Of course, you can always go over there and do one of the 'non-violent' protests you've trained for. That'd be fun to see. ;)
    No, I think it is reasonable to oppose by non military means, for example the sanctions package that Truss was announcing yesterday. I am actually in line with government on this, at least so far.

    Do you really want British troops there, fighting Russians face to face in the snow and mud?
    No, I don't want it. Only a fool wants war. But neither am I willing to say 'never'.

    However, the person threatening war is Putin, not us. He invades other countries. He jails or murders journalists. He poisons people in other countries. He enriches himself and his friends as his country descends down into the mire. (*)

    We are facing an evil in the form of Putin's expansionism. Many times in the past we have seen people back down from evil, and evil expand. There comes a time to say 'no more'. The question is when that time is.

    People like you - so keen to have pathetic little non-violent protests in a liberal country - should be the first to argue against real evils.

    (*) I'm expecting certain parallels about this... ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    That’s that then, no VONC. Cowards.

    Actually it's not cowardice per se.

    Think about it, they try and VONC him, and he survives and then he's either charged or fined, he'll try and brazen it out, safe in the knowledge the party cannot oust him for 12 months.

    Better to wait until he's charged/fined.
    The threshold to remove him keeps moving up for arbitrary reasons. It now seems to be that he be found to have committed a criminal offence.
    Yes I noticed that too. Whereas until a few days ago it was about misleading (lying to) the House. Which he obviously did.
    The problem is that the Conservative Party has to find somebody to replace him who will not plunge it into a costly civil war whilst at the same time appearing plausible to the public at large. It needs to buy time to arrange this. This is the only explanation for its delay in removing the oaf.


    He's a goner, but what comes next is far from clear. If it goes badly for them, the Party could soon be replacing the LibDems as the third largest Party in Westminster.
    The LDs will never win more seats than the Tories.

    Only party that might is RefUK if they overtook the Tories as the main party of the right as Labour overtook the Liberals as the main party of the centre left early last century.

    The LDs are now split between centre right Orange Bookers and centre left social democrats
    You are describing the party 10 years ago. 11 of the party’s 13 MPs weren’t even in Parliament when The Orange Book came out.
    Davey is LD leader and was a Cabinet Minister in Cameron's government and even helped write the Orange Book.

    Boris of course never served in Cameron's Cabinet unlike Ed Davey
    Indeed. But how does that demonstrate your contention that the party is now split between Orange Bookers and social democrats?
    Ed Davey is an Orange Booker, his opponent for LD leader in 2020 was Layla Moran, a social democrat
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    IshmaelZ said:

    Email sent this morning

    Dear Sir Geoffrey

    After yesterday's Commons performance I have to tell you that I shall never vote Conservative while Boris Johnson remains in office, and never vote for any candidate currently taking the Conservative whip unless Johnson is forced out by the party by the end of this month.

    I have voted Conservative in every GE since 1979 with one exception, and my principal interest in life is trail hunting. I am therefore fairly representative of a fairly large part of your core vote.

    Ishmael xx

    I'm sure it's fun riding on horses after a strange smell of fox urine, that dogs seem to like, laid down by people pretending to be foxes, but I rather doubt that people who enjoy this are "fairly representative of a fairly large part of Boris' core vote"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Scott_xP said:

    The smear made against Keir Starmer relating to Jimmy Saville yesterday is wrong & cannot be defended. It should be withdrawn. False and baseless personal slurs are dangerous, corrode trust & can't just be accepted as part of the cut & thrust of parliamentary debate.
    https://twitter.com/JulianSmithUK/status/1488436899215818753

    He wont withdraw it as he shares the common political view that admitting any error or mistake (at least when it cannot be done jovially) makes you weak. The result is even blatant mistakes or errors are defended as if your life depends on it, no matter how ridiculous it is to defend it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Email sent this morning

    Dear Sir Geoffrey

    After yesterday's Commons performance I have to tell you that I shall never vote Conservative while Boris Johnson remains in office, and never vote for any candidate currently taking the Conservative whip unless Johnson is forced out by the party by the end of this month.

    I have voted Conservative in every GE since 1979 with one exception, and my principal interest in life is trail hunting. I am therefore fairly representative of a fairly large part of your core vote.

    Ishmael xx

    Full marks for optimism triumphing over expectation.

    And Brownie points for the 2 kisses. Why no hug?
    Charm offensives work in stages..
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Scott_xP said:

    Tories must ditch disastrous, doomed Johnson, says @HCH_Hill of @ConHome on Reaction @reactionlife. Are Tory MPs really going to spend two years sitting behind him, like a gallery of haunted paintings, as he heads for defeat in the next election? https://reaction.life/tories-must-ditch-disastrous-doomed-johnson/

    This whole Tory MP "mood" thing is hilariously overblown. Between 6pm and 10pm yesterday the "mood" was reported as having gone from wholesale mutiny to "the good old" Johnson is back. That cycle has been repeating for over a year since the Dec 2020 restrictions vote. The idea that Conservative MPs ruthlessly defenistrate PMs is also overblown. In the second half of the 21st Century we only saw Eden and Thatcher go. Not Major when the party was polling considerably worse than it is now, not May when she nearly lost an unnessessary election, and certainly not Johnson now.

    This is as good as it gets for anti-Tories/Anti-Johnsonites. He's weakened and will stumble on until he either goes of his own volition or the electorate kicks him out - remember that the last two years have been two of only four since 1996 when the Tories have had a workable majority. He won't be thrown out by his party. Zero chance.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Shocking story coming out of Afghanistan. Only 3% of the population living above the poverty line. They are in serious danger of starvation. The UK government have a serious responsibility for whats going on. A good opportunity for Johnson to change the habit of a lifetime and try to do some good.

    Is that relative or absolute poverty? Makes a mockery of the word poverty to have it chopped and changed like that.

    In my humble opinion we should wash our hands of Afghanistan and have absolutely no responsibility for the nation and absolutely no aid should be going there. We tried to be responsible for them, they rejected us an installed the Taliban instead.

    Let the Taliban take responsibility. You don't get to reject our help then say "but keep sending us money and food".
    It is outright terrible poverty. A Biblical Famine is emerging in Afghanistan

    However half of me, at least, feels like you. Enough. You want a mad Islamist government that hates the world? Here you go. This is what happens
    It's hard to resist isn't it? You didn't want to be ruled by incompetent lunatics? Why didn't you resist the takeover? Why didn't your army fight?

    But do we really want another couple of million Afghan refugees destabilising neighbouring countries and, inevitably, coming west?
    To be honest, I don't see any good answer

    Afghanistan is hurtling towards disaster. Ideally we should help. But we've just spent 20 years "helping", at vast expense and with many western lives lost, and its ended like this

    Why on earth should a single British penny or American cent go to the Taliban to be "distributed" to the poor, with most of it inevitably siphoned off to buy guns for the Taliban (and gold taps, and trafficked girls)? Because that is the only way it can be done and that is what will happen, and in the end the guns they buy will be turned on US

    This may be one famine we just have to watch. Horrified. But paralysed.

    And perhaps it is time for China to step up
    For a bunch of muslims?
    Fair point

    But it would be a good way to counter the Uighur stuff

    If China wants to be top dog (and have access to all the minerals in Afghanistan) it is time for China to shoulder responsibility. The white man is laying down his burden, after 200 years
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Takes a peek. Sees that we are all still talking about birthday cake. goes back to lurking for a few more days.

    Meanwhile, apropos of nothing, the PM is in Kiev today for a meeting with President Zelensky. Ukraine is getting worried that US interests and media are unnecessarily talking up the chances of a Russian invasion this month. There’s a fine line to tread between being supportive of an ally, and antagonising the Russians which makes the conflict more likely to happen.

    Putin needs permission and political coverage from Xi to invade Ukraine. That isn't going to be forthcoming while it will fuck up the Winter Olympics so no invasion until the 21st.
    Covid is doing a pretty good job of that anyway. Maybe Xi will authorise the invasion to draw attention away from the games and the inevitable disastrous consequences of going ahead with them.
    My big fear is that Xi makes a play for Taiwan at the same time - i.e. during the Olympics. The US, UK and allies will not be able to put substantial aid to both Ukraine and Taiwan, and China will have lots of hostages guests staying for the Olympics.

    It's unlikely, but would be a good way for both to achieve their goals.
    A Xi invasion of Taiwan could be
    coordinated with a Putin invasion of Ukraine.

    It makes sense for them as they know the West will not go to war to defend Ukraine or Taiwan, only a NATO nation, South Korea or Japan.


    Yougov finds meanwhile a majority of Germans and a plurality of voters in most other NATO nations oppose going to war with Russia if it invades Ukraine. Only a plurality of Americans and Danes favour going to war with Russia over the Ukraine but even then only 38% of Danes and 35% of Russians back war. Britons are split

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1488111850017406976?s=20&t=eh6ET0EsIAeXxNtKWoTyaQ
    It is absolutely insane that 30% of Britons want a war with Russia if they invade Ukraine. Apart from the risk of nuclear escalation we simply don't have the forces to do so.
    I think this is an example of people answering a different question to that asked, and it's really about demonstrating worry and concern about the situation.

    Ultimately Ukraine is on it's own in any invasion scenario and everyone knows it.
    On its own, apart from a mountain of state of the art weaponry.

    And satellite intel on where every single Russian troop is positioned.
    A friend works in the space industry. Apparently, there was an a weird attempt, sort of half hearted, from certain countries to stop Ukraine buying commercial satellite imagery of the potential conflict area from European companies. This fell over when people pointed out that such imagery is available from world wide sources.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Takes a peek. Sees that we are all still talking about birthday cake. goes back to lurking for a few more days.

    Meanwhile, apropos of nothing, the PM is in Kiev today for a meeting with President Zelensky. Ukraine is getting worried that US interests and media are unnecessarily talking up the chances of a Russian invasion this month. There’s a fine line to tread between being supportive of an ally, and antagonising the Russians which makes the conflict more likely to happen.

    Putin needs permission and political coverage from Xi to invade Ukraine. That isn't going to be forthcoming while it will fuck up the Winter Olympics so no invasion until the 21st.
    Covid is doing a pretty good job of that anyway. Maybe Xi will authorise the invasion to draw attention away from the games and the inevitable disastrous consequences of going ahead with them.
    My big fear is that Xi makes a play for Taiwan at the same time - i.e. during the Olympics. The US, UK and allies will not be able to put substantial aid to both Ukraine and Taiwan, and China will have lots of hostages guests staying for the Olympics.

    It's unlikely, but would be a good way for both to achieve their goals.
    A Xi invasion of Taiwan could be
    coordinated with a Putin invasion of Ukraine.

    It makes sense for them as they know the West will not go to war to defend Ukraine or Taiwan, only a NATO nation, South Korea or Japan.


    Yougov finds meanwhile a majority of Germans and a plurality of voters in most other NATO nations oppose going to war with Russia if it invades Ukraine. Only a plurality of Americans and Danes favour going to war with Russia over the Ukraine but even then only 38% of Danes and 35% of Russians back war. Britons are split

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1488111850017406976?s=20&t=eh6ET0EsIAeXxNtKWoTyaQ
    It is absolutely insane that 30% of Britons want a war with Russia if they invade Ukraine. Apart from the risk of nuclear escalation we simply don't have the forces to do so.
    Define going to war

    - declaring war
    - declaring war and sanctions
    - declaring war and sending more military aid
    - declaring war and send only ships and aircraft
    - declaring war and sending a token number of troops, plus ships and aircraft
    - declaring war and sending a meaningful ground forces.

    I suspect that people on that survey were thinking of one of those options.

    That and the sad fact that if Putin goes on tour, again, he will have another territorial demand beyond that. And he is running out places that aren't in NATO/EU to go on tour in.
    The "war" poll seems moot.

    All the key countries have already said that they will not militarily intervene in Ukraine itself. Biden said that in early December iirc.

    AFAICS the only military intervention that could possibly make sense would be something like a traditional no-fly zone.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Takes a peek. Sees that we are all still talking about birthday cake. goes back to lurking for a few more days.

    Meanwhile, apropos of nothing, the PM is in Kiev today for a meeting with President Zelensky. Ukraine is getting worried that US interests and media are unnecessarily talking up the chances of a Russian invasion this month. There’s a fine line to tread between being supportive of an ally, and antagonising the Russians which makes the conflict more likely to happen.

    Putin needs permission and political coverage from Xi to invade Ukraine. That isn't going to be forthcoming while it will fuck up the Winter Olympics so no invasion until the 21st.
    Covid is doing a pretty good job of that anyway. Maybe Xi will authorise the invasion to draw attention away from the games and the inevitable disastrous consequences of going ahead with them.
    My big fear is that Xi makes a play for Taiwan at the same time - i.e. during the Olympics. The US, UK and allies will not be able to put substantial aid to both Ukraine and Taiwan, and China will have lots of hostages guests staying for the Olympics.

    It's unlikely, but would be a good way for both to achieve their goals.
    A Xi invasion of Taiwan could be
    coordinated with a Putin invasion of Ukraine.

    It makes sense for them as they know the West will not go to war to defend Ukraine or Taiwan, only a NATO nation, South Korea or Japan.


    Yougov finds meanwhile a majority of Germans and a plurality of voters in most other NATO nations oppose going to war with Russia if it invades Ukraine. Only a plurality of Americans and Danes favour going to war with Russia over the Ukraine but even then only 38% of Danes and 35% of Russians back war. Britons are split

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1488111850017406976?s=20&t=eh6ET0EsIAeXxNtKWoTyaQ
    It is absolutely insane that 30% of Britons want a war with Russia if they invade Ukraine. Apart from the risk of nuclear escalation we simply don't have the forces to do so.
    @HYFUD's point is a fair one though. Get the Beijing Olympics out of the way and then two coordinated attacks. There will be never be a better time for either - doddering US President, split EU etc. The only thing that would probably both stop both would be nuclear weapons and both leaders will be betting on (probably correctly) that the public does not want to go to that stage.
    You just said that it's "probably" correct that the public doesn't want a nuclear war. Are you positing that it is possible that they do?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @StigAbell @TimesRadio from 2016,beware the sweary words but straight to the point https://twitter.com/pritanirebel/status/1488421472523759616/photo/1
  • Anecdata:

    Went to the local pub at 7 tonight. Monday evening. Quiet. There is a corner where a group of peeps meet whatever day of week - mainly young lads. 3 or 4 middle aged. I think they are something to do with 5-a-side football or golf.

    The entire hour I was there they banged on about Johnson and basically what a lying twat he is. All of them sharing one mobile phone picture, tweet, joke, meem after another. They can't decide whether to laugh at the lying fat twat or be upset that things have come to this.

    Middle England.

    Bet the Tories long after the days when their PM waffled on about the Middle England of long shadows on county grounds, warm beer, invincible green suburbs, dog lovers, pools fillers and cones hotlines.
    That part of Middle England is currently drowning in Focus leaflets promising action on potholes and pointing out that Sir Henry Bufton-Tufton MP has done nothing to stop Thames Water filling the River Lovelybourne with sewage.
    I note that the Lib Dems are now above 20% in the South West (yesterday’s Redfield & Wilton). If those voters are in the right seats, there will be many fewer Sir Henry Bufton-Tuftons. His party is on an eye-watering 25%!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    I have reluctantly reached the conclusion that Boris has to go, if only because this scandal is now just so fucking BORING
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Anecdata:

    Went to the local pub at 7 tonight. Monday evening. Quiet. There is a corner where a group of peeps meet whatever day of week - mainly young lads. 3 or 4 middle aged. I think they are something to do with 5-a-side football or golf.

    The entire hour I was there they banged on about Johnson and basically what a lying twat he is. All of them sharing one mobile phone picture, tweet, joke, meem after another. They can't decide whether to laugh at the lying fat twat or be upset that things have come to this.

    Middle England.

    Bet the Tories long after the days when their PM waffled on about the Middle England of long shadows on county grounds, warm beer, invincible green suburbs, dog lovers, pools fillers and cones hotlines.
    That part of Middle England is currently drowning in Focus leaflets promising action on potholes and pointing out that Sir Henry Bufton-Tufton MP has done nothing to stop Thames Water filling the River Lovelybourne with sewage.
    I note that the Lib Dems are now above 20% in the South West (yesterday’s Redfield & Wilton). If those voters are in the right seats, there will be many fewer Sir Henry Bufton-Tuftons. His party is on an eye-watering 25%!
    Oh rly? Excellent, making sir G Cox's flesh creep may be easier than I thought. He took this seat off LD in 2005
This discussion has been closed.