Allies of PM point suggest that if suspected law breaches are taken out of Sue Gray - “they take out the juicier stuff and we just hear the residue” as one minister put it, the full details may never come out, as police won’t provide narrative of who knew what when issuing fine…
Impressive. @Leon For your writing do you just need a laptop so can travel anywhere? Do you travel alone? I ask because I like my own company and like being alone at times (I am at the moment while my wife is away), but I think I would get lonely if I traveled alone or go to events alone, but I know lots do. It is something I dread if that ever happened to me. If you are alone, you seem to thrive on it and I am very jealous.
We all know what happens next: some minion will be led away in cuffs while Boris announces 'more in sorrow than anger' that some of his staff fell short of public expectations but lessons will be learnt.
I said the storm would blow over. A pretty good week for Johnson.
He’s going to survive isn’t he?
I still think he should go - morally - but I can’t deny it will be amusing to watch the raging apoplexy of his enemies, if he does survive
Yes - people will get bored with it. But possibly in the same way that you get bored with perpetually suspecting that your spouse is cheating on you and laughing at you behind your back.
I said the storm would blow over. A pretty good week for Johnson.
He’s going to survive isn’t he?
I still think he should go - morally - but I can’t deny it will be amusing to watch the raging apoplexy of his enemies, if he does survive
Yes - people will get bored with it. But possibly in the same way that you get bored with perpetually suspecting that your spouse is cheating on you and laughing at you behind your back.
Regarding Covid: I am very sure that we are not at the end of the pandemic. The end of the pandemic has been claimed many times before. The reality is that we just don't know what the virus will do next.
However it is also quite easy to see that the current system of managing the pandemic is inappropriate and disproportionate to the actual threat posed by the virus. The problems being faced by society and in the economy are predominantly caused by the public health rules initiated as a consequence of the virus, and not the virus itself.
The sheer scale of the project of managing the pandemic, and the time it has been going on, has created a problem of producer interest. There are a vast amount of jobs and investments that rely on the continued management of the pandemic as at present.
The challenge is to wind down the system, whilst keeping the essential infrastructure and systems in place, so they can be quickly wound back up when needed. Thats not an easy task.
Why should we not be at the end of the pandemic? Pandemics do end. Spanish flu ended. Hong Kong flu ended. Even bubonic plague ended. Even AIDS “ended” tho it took ages and needed better treatments
Unless this virus was so brilliantly engineered in the lab that it is superior to all other pathogens and can keep evolving to defeat us, covid will end
Incidentally, on that note of lab leak, there are some non-idiots on Twitter asking about the origin of Omicron. It’s lineage is odd, apparently
Various theories abound. One is that it came from an animal reservoir, hence its apparently mysterious mutations. Another is that it was engineered - again - in a lab, and deliberately released to end delta and be milder. So a GOOD “lab leak”
Who knows.
Omicron comes out of an earlier lineage.
Typically*, you'd expect each strain to come under its own selection pressure and mutate, so the graph moves rather like all the other variants - a relatively regular drift upwards in differences/amino acid changes with time . Omicron, as I understand it, comes from a branch of variants which first split off in ca. Autumn 2020.
I said the storm would blow over. A pretty good week for Johnson.
He’s going to survive isn’t he?
I still think he should go - morally - but I can’t deny it will be amusing to watch the raging apoplexy of his enemies, if he does survive
If you count surviving as everyone thinking he is a lowlife cheating lying criminal clown. At least that would mean an absolute thrashing for the nasty party at next election.
So says the man that is the no1 fanboy with undying adulation and love for a man that was described by his own QC as "a bully and a sex pest".
And on that non-bombshell, I am going to have some lunch. Hope you are well Malc. 😂😂😂😂😂😂
The Coronavirus regulations were made under the provisions of the Public Health (Control of Diseases) Act 1984. The relevant bit, as it stood in May 2020 is: 64ATime limits for prosecutions (1)Notwithstanding anything in section 127(1) of the Magistrates' Courts Act 1980, a magistrates' court may try an information (or written charge) relating to an offence created by or under this Act if the information is laid (or the charge is issued)— (a)before the end of the period of 3 years beginning with the date of the commission of the offence, and (b)before the end of the period of 6 months beginning with the date on which evidence which the prosecutor thinks is sufficient to justify the proceedings comes to the prosecutor's knowledge. (2)For the purposes of subsection (1)(b)— (a)a certificate signed by or on behalf of the prosecutor and stating the date on which such evidence came to the prosecutor's knowledge is conclusive evidence of that fact, and (b)a certificate stating that matter and purporting to be so signed is to be treated as so signed unless the contrary is proved.
So to bring a prosecution in the event of not paying a fixed penalty the prosecutor has to certify that he did not know of the information that would be the basis of the charge more than 6 months before the charge is issued. But if police were present at the party of 20th May 2020 how can they certify that? The 6 month time limit usually arises in the context of motoring offences where the police have either stopped someone or they have been caught on camera. That is because the police know at the time that the offence has been committed (because they were there) or when the camera took the picture.
If the evidence indicates that, for security reasons, the police were aware of the comings and goings add, for example, the consumption of alcohol in the garden, I think that is a problem. If there cannot be a prosecution then there surely cannot be any basis for issuing a fixed penalty. A FP has to be based on a prosecutable offence.
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
I said the storm would blow over. A pretty good week for Johnson.
He’s going to survive isn’t he?
I still think he should go - morally - but I can’t deny it will be amusing to watch the raging apoplexy of his enemies, if he does survive
If you count surviving as everyone thinking he is a lowlife cheating lying criminal clown. At least that would mean an absolute thrashing for the nasty party at next election.
So says the man that is the no1 fanboy with undying adulation and love for a man that was described by his own QC as "a bully and a sex pest".
And on that non-bombshell, I am going to have some lunch. Hope you are well Malc. 😂😂😂😂😂😂
F Off scumbag
You need more of the cask strength turnip juice - that really isn't up to your standards for insults.
Impressive. @Leon For your writing do you just need a laptop so can travel anywhere? Do you travel alone? I ask because I like my own company and like being alone at times (I am at the moment while my wife is away), but I think I would get lonely if I traveled alone or go to events alone, but I know lots do. It is something I dread if that ever happened to me. If you are alone, you seem to thrive on it and I am very jealous.
All i need is a chisel for my flints, yes
And as for tolerating loneliness, yes absolutely. I have discovered after decades of travel that if you travel alone you can actually have MORE interesting experiences, in general. Because you are forced to - you meet other people, you fall into conversation, you have adventures
It’s not an iron law. I’ve had truly wonderful experiences in a couple or a group, but many of the best have been solitary
The internet really helps of course. If i am feeling lonely - and that definitely happens, it is the price you pay - I can WhatsApp or email or whatever with friends and most of it disappears. Or i can come on here and argue myself stupid over gin.
Try it! And of course if you are alone you do EXACTLY what you want
The Coronavirus regulations were made under the provisions of the Public Health (Control of Diseases) Act 1984. The relevant bit, as it stood in May 2020 is: 64ATime limits for prosecutions (1)Notwithstanding anything in section 127(1) of the Magistrates' Courts Act 1980, a magistrates' court may try an information (or written charge) relating to an offence created by or under this Act if the information is laid (or the charge is issued)— (a)before the end of the period of 3 years beginning with the date of the commission of the offence, and (b)before the end of the period of 6 months beginning with the date on which evidence which the prosecutor thinks is sufficient to justify the proceedings comes to the prosecutor's knowledge. (2)For the purposes of subsection (1)(b)— (a)a certificate signed by or on behalf of the prosecutor and stating the date on which such evidence came to the prosecutor's knowledge is conclusive evidence of that fact, and (b)a certificate stating that matter and purporting to be so signed is to be treated as so signed unless the contrary is proved.
So to bring a prosecution in the event of not paying a fixed penalty the prosecutor has to certify that he did not know of the information that would be the basis of the charge more than 6 months before the charge is issued. But if police were present at the party of 20th May 2020 how can they certify that? The 6 month time limit usually arises in the context of motoring offences where the police have either stopped someone or they have been caught on camera. That is because the police know at the time that the offence has been committed (because they were there) or when the camera took the picture.
If the evidence indicates that, for security reasons, the police were aware of the comings and goings add, for example, the consumption of alcohol in the garden, I think that is a problem. If there cannot be a prosecution then there surely cannot be any basis for issuing a fixed penalty. A FP has to be based on a prosecutable offence.
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
That's 11,500 per year, right? So ~23k over the ~2 years of the pandemic?
(Now expecting to be told I've missed something obvious...)
There was quite a good piece on more or less about this. Basically there are only 17k death certificates which narrate Covid alone as the cause of death. In roughly 9x that there are other causes but these may be subsidiary to Covid. Eg, they may have caught pneumonia as a result of Covid, had a heart attack, other organ failure etc.
Sometimes, the other cause will be the main cause of death so the person has died with Covid rather than of it but their position was that in at least 150k cases so far Covid had played a major part in the death.
A hat trick for the Tories: Con hold on Kent CC -Wilmington.
Surprisingly robust Tory performance. I read somewhere that this area is pretty similar, and close to, Old Bexley and Sidcup where, again, there was a better-than-expected performance in the by-election. Presume its solid middle-class, oldish, with none of the accoutrements that lend themselves to LibDem tendencies.
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
I think that an over estimate, as prevalence of covid has been highest in the young, and deaths in the elderly, but as a quick and dirty estimate not too far off.
Worth noting of course that many covid deaths have happened after 28 days.
Please tell me that the whole coastline hasn't been trashed by condos, hotels etc.
Exactly. In the photo there’s the sea and a type of sky that isn’t uncommonly seen from all around the British coast. There are a few palm trees. Then there’s not particularly attractive hotel building with a swimming pool, which is likely a negative as far as the scenery is concerned.
The Coronavirus regulations were made under the provisions of the Public Health (Control of Diseases) Act 1984. The relevant bit, as it stood in May 2020 is: 64ATime limits for prosecutions (1)Notwithstanding anything in section 127(1) of the Magistrates' Courts Act 1980, a magistrates' court may try an information (or written charge) relating to an offence created by or under this Act if the information is laid (or the charge is issued)— (a)before the end of the period of 3 years beginning with the date of the commission of the offence, and (b)before the end of the period of 6 months beginning with the date on which evidence which the prosecutor thinks is sufficient to justify the proceedings comes to the prosecutor's knowledge. (2)For the purposes of subsection (1)(b)— (a)a certificate signed by or on behalf of the prosecutor and stating the date on which such evidence came to the prosecutor's knowledge is conclusive evidence of that fact, and (b)a certificate stating that matter and purporting to be so signed is to be treated as so signed unless the contrary is proved.
So to bring a prosecution in the event of not paying a fixed penalty the prosecutor has to certify that he did not know of the information that would be the basis of the charge more than 6 months before the charge is issued. But if police were present at the party of 20th May 2020 how can they certify that? The 6 month time limit usually arises in the context of motoring offences where the police have either stopped someone or they have been caught on camera. That is because the police know at the time that the offence has been committed (because they were there) or when the camera took the picture.
If the evidence indicates that, for security reasons, the police were aware of the comings and goings add, for example, the consumption of alcohol in the garden, I think that is a problem. If there cannot be a prosecution then there surely cannot be any basis for issuing a fixed penalty. A FP has to be based on a prosecutable offence.
One word - chaos
Indeed. Last night I went out for a drink with a couple of pals, also advocates. One also sits as a JP. The first pub we went to was shut. It opens today when, in Scotland, there is a relaxation of the rules. The second had a desk at the door which was clearly controlling numbers and we were told that there was no vacancy. The third had nothing at all and we got our pints whilst standing at the bar having ordered there.
I did remark that the fact that 3 advocates had no idea what the law was as of yesterday and how it was changing today and which pub was actually right is the sort of thing that brings the law into disrepute. Its a farce.
The Coronavirus regulations were made under the provisions of the Public Health (Control of Diseases) Act 1984. The relevant bit, as it stood in May 2020 is: 64ATime limits for prosecutions (1)Notwithstanding anything in section 127(1) of the Magistrates' Courts Act 1980, a magistrates' court may try an information (or written charge) relating to an offence created by or under this Act if the information is laid (or the charge is issued)— (a)before the end of the period of 3 years beginning with the date of the commission of the offence, and (b)before the end of the period of 6 months beginning with the date on which evidence which the prosecutor thinks is sufficient to justify the proceedings comes to the prosecutor's knowledge. (2)For the purposes of subsection (1)(b)— (a)a certificate signed by or on behalf of the prosecutor and stating the date on which such evidence came to the prosecutor's knowledge is conclusive evidence of that fact, and (b)a certificate stating that matter and purporting to be so signed is to be treated as so signed unless the contrary is proved
So to bring a prosecution in the event of not paying a fixed penalty the prosecutor has to certify that he did not know of the information that would be the basis of the charge more than 6 months before the charge is issued. But if police were present at the party of 20th May 2020 how can they certify that? The 6 month time limit usually arises in the context of motoring offences where the police have either stopped someone or they have been caught on camera. That is because the police know at the time that the offence has been committed (because they were there) or when the camera took the picture.
If the evidence indicates that, for security reasons, the police were aware of the comings and goings add, for example, the consumption of alcohol in the garden, I think that is a problem. If there cannot be a prosecution then there surely cannot be any basis for issuing a fixed penalty. A FP has to be based on a prosecutable offence.
I would have thought and on whether you can regard the whole of the Met as one entity deemed to know everything any part of it knows. Bear in mind ds cops are part of a specialist unit
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
I think that an over estimate, as prevalence of covid has been highest in the young, and deaths in the elderly, but as a quick and dirty estimate not too far off.
Worth noting of course that many covid deaths have happened after 28 days.
Which of course goes back to the idea that we will never know how many died of covid. Every measure that you try to use has its own pitfalls. The within 28 days measure gives quick answers and it has been believed that the erroneous ones ('run over by a bus on the way back from the testing site') have been balanced by the 'died on day 29' ones. Its possible that this rough and ready measure, great for early indication of how many are dying, is wrong in either direction. Its also possibly wrong in different directions at different time points. For instance in March/April 2020 it would likely have undercounted due to the restrictions on tests, while currently with the higher level of incidental covid cases in hospital, it may be over counting.
Using death certificates is not conclusive either - not all the factors mentioned may have been causal, and its slower to get answers.
Even excess death is not rock solid - yes measuring against a 5 year average will smooth things out but it certainly doesn't guarantee accuracy.
Please tell me that the whole coastline hasn't been trashed by condos, hotels etc.
Exactly. In the photo there’s the sea and a type of sky that isn’t uncommonly seen from all around the British coast. There are a few palm trees. Then there’s not particularly attractive hotel building with a swimming pool, which is likely a negative as far as the scenery is concerned.
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
I think that an over estimate, as prevalence of covid has been highest in the young, and deaths in the elderly, but as a quick and dirty estimate not too far off.
Worth noting of course that many covid deaths have happened after 28 days.
Which of course goes back to the idea that we will never know how many died of covid. Every measure that you try to use has its own pitfalls. The within 28 days measure gives quick answers and it has been believed that the erroneous ones ('run over by a bus on the way back from the testing site') have been balanced by the 'died on day 29' ones. Its possible that this rough and ready measure, great for early indication of how many are dying, is wrong in either direction. Its also possibly wrong in different directions at different time points. For instance in March/April 2020 it would likely have undercounted due to the restrictions on tests, while currently with the higher level of incidental covid cases in hospital, it may be over counting.
Using death certificates is not conclusive either - not all the factors mentioned may have been causal, and its slower to get answers.
Even excess death is not rock solid - yes measuring against a 5 year average will smooth things out but it certainly doesn't guarantee accuracy.
So, like so much else, its complicated.
One thing is certain. Counting only deaths where COVID is the sole cause on the death certificate as COVID deaths, is bollocks.
The Coronavirus regulations were made under the provisions of the Public Health (Control of Diseases) Act 1984. The relevant bit, as it stood in May 2020 is: 64ATime limits for prosecutions (1)Notwithstanding anything in section 127(1) of the Magistrates' Courts Act 1980, a magistrates' court may try an information (or written charge) relating to an offence created by or under this Act if the information is laid (or the charge is issued)— (a)before the end of the period of 3 years beginning with the date of the commission of the offence, and (b)before the end of the period of 6 months beginning with the date on which evidence which the prosecutor thinks is sufficient to justify the proceedings comes to the prosecutor's knowledge. (2)For the purposes of subsection (1)(b)— (a)a certificate signed by or on behalf of the prosecutor and stating the date on which such evidence came to the prosecutor's knowledge is conclusive evidence of that fact, and (b)a certificate stating that matter and purporting to be so signed is to be treated as so signed unless the contrary is proved
So to bring a prosecution in the event of not paying a fixed penalty the prosecutor has to certify that he did not know of the information that would be the basis of the charge more than 6 months before the charge is issued. But if police were present at the party of 20th May 2020 how can they certify that? The 6 month time limit usually arises in the context of motoring offences where the police have either stopped someone or they have been caught on camera. That is because the police know at the time that the offence has been committed (because they were there) or when the camera took the picture.
If the evidence indicates that, for security reasons, the police were aware of the comings and goings add, for example, the consumption of alcohol in the garden, I think that is a problem. If there cannot be a prosecution then there surely cannot be any basis for issuing a fixed penalty. A FP has to be based on a prosecutable offence.
I would have thought and on whether you can regard the whole of the Met as one entity deemed to know everything any part of it knows. Bear in mind ds cops are part of a specialist unit
And the cops are on the door ffs. All they are aware of is people and unsearchable suitcases entering the building. They have no idea what happens thereafter
Some may allege that he might see it at some point before he dies of old age, but that he shouldn't expect it to emerge any time soon. It's just a matter of what excuse or excuses will be used to keep it secret.
Of course, openness and transparency is important in Britain, so such allegations should be ignored.
Impressive. @Leon For your writing do you just need a laptop so can travel anywhere? Do you travel alone? I ask because I like my own company and like being alone at times (I am at the moment while my wife is away), but I think I would get lonely if I traveled alone or go to events alone, but I know lots do. It is something I dread if that ever happened to me. If you are alone, you seem to thrive on it and I am very jealous.
All i need is a chisel for my flints, yes
And as for tolerating loneliness, yes absolutely. I have discovered after decades of travel that if you travel alone you can actually have MORE interesting experiences, in general. Because you are forced to - you meet other people, you fall into conversation, you have adventures
It’s not an iron law. I’ve had truly wonderful experiences in a couple or a group, but many of the best have been solitary
The internet really helps of course. If i am feeling lonely - and that definitely happens, it is the price you pay - I can WhatsApp or email or whatever with friends and most of it disappears. Or i can come on here and argue myself stupid over gin.
Try it! And of course if you are alone you do EXACTLY what you want
However well you get on, travel as a pair or group is inevitably a negotiation; on your own there is a remarkable freedom to go and do whatever you want, whenever you want. And do things that you’d screen out if you had to impose them on someone else or, indeed, to decide to do nothing and see what turns up, with no expectations, because there’s no-one asking ‘what are we doing today?’, and you don’t have to worry about trying to turn an aimless day into a purposeful one.
You just need the self reliance to be able to enjoy doing stuff because you’re doing it, without needing someone to tell that you’re doing it. Or use PB, of course, like Sean does.
Impressive. @Leon For your writing do you just need a laptop so can travel anywhere? Do you travel alone? I ask because I like my own company and like being alone at times (I am at the moment while my wife is away), but I think I would get lonely if I traveled alone or go to events alone, but I know lots do. It is something I dread if that ever happened to me. If you are alone, you seem to thrive on it and I am very jealous.
All i need is a chisel for my flints, yes
And as for tolerating loneliness, yes absolutely. I have discovered after decades of travel that if you travel alone you can actually have MORE interesting experiences, in general. Because you are forced to - you meet other people, you fall into conversation, you have adventures
It’s not an iron law. I’ve had truly wonderful experiences in a couple or a group, but many of the best have been solitary
The internet really helps of course. If i am feeling lonely - and that definitely happens, it is the price you pay - I can WhatsApp or email or whatever with friends and most of it disappears. Or i can come on here and argue myself stupid over gin.
Try it! And of course if you are alone you do EXACTLY what you want
yes, I have done a fair amount of solo travel, and also with Mrs Foxy. When solo it is true that you meet more people than as a couple, though being a gregarious sort Mrs Foxy is quite good at engaging with strangers.
Phones and social media have affected this though, as people stare into screens rather than interacting with others.
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
That's 11,500 per year, right? So ~23k over the ~2 years of the pandemic?
(Now expecting to be told I've missed something obvious...)
No, you don't need to double it, because the 1/4 of the population is over the whole pandemic, so the estimate of deaths is as well.
As an even rougher rule of thumb, you can say that the probability of anyone dying in a given year is about 1%, and in a given month about 0.1%. It's much smaller than the ratio of the death rate to positive tests before most people were vaccinated, and even before Omicron. But it's more comparable now.
The Coronavirus regulations were made under the provisions of the Public Health (Control of Diseases) Act 1984. The relevant bit, as it stood in May 2020 is: 64ATime limits for prosecutions (1)Notwithstanding anything in section 127(1) of the Magistrates' Courts Act 1980, a magistrates' court may try an information (or written charge) relating to an offence created by or under this Act if the information is laid (or the charge is issued)— (a)before the end of the period of 3 years beginning with the date of the commission of the offence, and (b)before the end of the period of 6 months beginning with the date on which evidence which the prosecutor thinks is sufficient to justify the proceedings comes to the prosecutor's knowledge. (2)For the purposes of subsection (1)(b)— (a)a certificate signed by or on behalf of the prosecutor and stating the date on which such evidence came to the prosecutor's knowledge is conclusive evidence of that fact, and (b)a certificate stating that matter and purporting to be so signed is to be treated as so signed unless the contrary is proved
So to bring a prosecution in the event of not paying a fixed penalty the prosecutor has to certify that he did not know of the information that would be the basis of the charge more than 6 months before the charge is issued. But if police were present at the party of 20th May 2020 how can they certify that? The 6 month time limit usually arises in the context of motoring offences where the police have either stopped someone or they have been caught on camera. That is because the police know at the time that the offence has been committed (because they were there) or when the camera took the picture.
If the evidence indicates that, for security reasons, the police were aware of the comings and goings add, for example, the consumption of alcohol in the garden, I think that is a problem. If there cannot be a prosecution then there surely cannot be any basis for issuing a fixed penalty. A FP has to be based on a prosecutable offence.
I would have thought and on whether you can regard the whole of the Met as one entity deemed to know everything any part of it knows. Bear in mind ds cops are part of a specialist unit
Some are already out of the picture, eg a local authority can only issue FPNs for certain contraventions which are not relevant. But generally, certainly in traffic matters the prosecutor is deemed to know what the police know because the police should have done something about it. I have no idea what the police actually knew here and it may be that some of the "parties" within the building just didn't come to their attention but I really struggle to see how the garden party escaped their attention.
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
I think that an over estimate, as prevalence of covid has been highest in the young, and deaths in the elderly, but as a quick and dirty estimate not too far off.
Worth noting of course that many covid deaths have happened after 28 days.
Which of course goes back to the idea that we will never know how many died of covid. Every measure that you try to use has its own pitfalls. The within 28 days measure gives quick answers and it has been believed that the erroneous ones ('run over by a bus on the way back from the testing site') have been balanced by the 'died on day 29' ones. Its possible that this rough and ready measure, great for early indication of how many are dying, is wrong in either direction. Its also possibly wrong in different directions at different time points. For instance in March/April 2020 it would likely have undercounted due to the restrictions on tests, while currently with the higher level of incidental covid cases in hospital, it may be over counting.
Using death certificates is not conclusive either - not all the factors mentioned may have been causal, and its slower to get answers.
Even excess death is not rock solid - yes measuring against a 5 year average will smooth things out but it certainly doesn't guarantee accuracy.
So, like so much else, its complicated.
One thing is certain. Counting only deaths where COVID is the sole cause on the death certificate as COVID deaths, is bollocks.
If the AIDS parallel applies, then aren't "deaths where COVID is the sole cause on the death certificate" just deaths where the certifying doctor didn't bother to put on the actual direct cause of death?
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
I think that an over estimate, as prevalence of covid has been highest in the young, and deaths in the elderly, but as a quick and dirty estimate not too far off.
Worth noting of course that many covid deaths have happened after 28 days.
Which of course goes back to the idea that we will never know how many died of covid. Every measure that you try to use has its own pitfalls. The within 28 days measure gives quick answers and it has been believed that the erroneous ones ('run over by a bus on the way back from the testing site') have been balanced by the 'died on day 29' ones. Its possible that this rough and ready measure, great for early indication of how many are dying, is wrong in either direction. Its also possibly wrong in different directions at different time points. For instance in March/April 2020 it would likely have undercounted due to the restrictions on tests, while currently with the higher level of incidental covid cases in hospital, it may be over counting.
Using death certificates is not conclusive either - not all the factors mentioned may have been causal, and its slower to get answers.
Even excess death is not rock solid - yes measuring against a 5 year average will smooth things out but it certainly doesn't guarantee accuracy.
So, like so much else, its complicated.
One thing is certain. Counting only deaths where COVID is the sole cause on the death certificate as COVID deaths, is bollocks.
If the AIDS parallel applies, then aren't "deaths where COVID is the sole cause on the death certificate" just deaths where the certifying doctor didn't bother to put on the actual direct cause of death?
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
I think that an over estimate, as prevalence of covid has been highest in the young, and deaths in the elderly, but as a quick and dirty estimate not too far off.
Worth noting of course that many covid deaths have happened after 28 days.
Which of course goes back to the idea that we will never know how many died of covid. Every measure that you try to use has its own pitfalls. The within 28 days measure gives quick answers and it has been believed that the erroneous ones ('run over by a bus on the way back from the testing site') have been balanced by the 'died on day 29' ones. Its possible that this rough and ready measure, great for early indication of how many are dying, is wrong in either direction. Its also possibly wrong in different directions at different time points. For instance in March/April 2020 it would likely have undercounted due to the restrictions on tests, while currently with the higher level of incidental covid cases in hospital, it may be over counting.
Using death certificates is not conclusive either - not all the factors mentioned may have been causal, and its slower to get answers.
Even excess death is not rock solid - yes measuring against a 5 year average will smooth things out but it certainly doesn't guarantee accuracy.
So, like so much else, its complicated.
One thing is certain. Counting only deaths where COVID is the sole cause on the death certificate as COVID deaths, is bollocks.
If the AIDS parallel applies, then aren't "deaths where COVID is the sole cause on the death certificate" just deaths where the certifying doctor didn't bother to put on the actual direct cause of death?
I believe that there are cases where COVID directly (and possibly solely) causes death - blood clots, I think got mentioned
I said the storm would blow over. A pretty good week for Johnson.
He’s going to survive isn’t he?
I still think he should go - morally - but I can’t deny it will be amusing to watch the raging apoplexy of his enemies, if he does survive
When Starmer becomes PM after "trying to subvert democracy", you'll probably work yourself up into a stroke. I can't be sure, but I'm guessing there will be some amusement at your expense.
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
The meme that DD is repeating is the one about COVID being the sole recorded cause of death.....
If we're going on that basis, noone has ever died from AIDS.
I'm slightly surprised that it's as high as 17000. Maybe people who actually fill out death certificates in England can correct me, but this sounds like there have been 17000 Covid deaths where there were no other contributory factors - including "old age" according to this guidance:
"If the immediate cause of death was Covid-19 or its consequences, and the patient had no specific pre-existing health conditions, but appears to have been especially vulnerable to Covid-19 or its effects because of old age or frailty, it is appropriate to state old age or frailty as contributing to the death."
Impressive. @Leon For your writing do you just need a laptop so can travel anywhere? Do you travel alone? I ask because I like my own company and like being alone at times (I am at the moment while my wife is away), but I think I would get lonely if I traveled alone or go to events alone, but I know lots do. It is something I dread if that ever happened to me. If you are alone, you seem to thrive on it and I am very jealous.
All i need is a chisel for my flints, yes
And as for tolerating loneliness, yes absolutely. I have discovered after decades of travel that if you travel alone you can actually have MORE interesting experiences, in general. Because you are forced to - you meet other people, you fall into conversation, you have adventures
It’s not an iron law. I’ve had truly wonderful experiences in a couple or a group, but many of the best have been solitary
The internet really helps of course. If i am feeling lonely - and that definitely happens, it is the price you pay - I can WhatsApp or email or whatever with friends and most of it disappears. Or i can come on here and argue myself stupid over gin.
Try it! And of course if you are alone you do EXACTLY what you want
However well you get on, travel as a pair or group is inevitably a negotiation; on your own there is a remarkable freedom to go and do whatever you want, whenever you want. And do things that you’d screen out if you had to impose them on someone else or, indeed, to decide to do nothing and see what turns up, with no expectations, because there’s no-one asking ‘what are we doing today?’, and you don’t have to worry about trying to turn an aimless day into a purposeful one.
You just need the self reliance to be able to enjoy doing stuff because you’re doing it, without needing someone to tell that you’re doing it. Or use PB, of course, like Sean does.
I remember one holiday in Malta, when Mrs Foxy and the boys chose the swimming pool on a roasting day, rather than the neolithic sites. On another occasion while at the World Cup in St Petersberg, I couldnt get the boys interested in the Museum of Artillery. There really is no accounting for some peoples idea of a holiday...
"Total rhubarb." What does this over emphatic wannabe comic denial remind me of?
Ah yes. "An inverted pyramid of piffle." Which turned out to be a denial of something that was absolutely true.
We can't say we were not warned.
It's clever because it sounds like a denial but it really isn't. Yet another example of how Johnson uses his constructed comic persona to avoid abiding by the same rules as everyone else.
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
I think that an over estimate, as prevalence of covid has been highest in the young, and deaths in the elderly, but as a quick and dirty estimate not too far off.
Worth noting of course that many covid deaths have happened after 28 days.
Which of course goes back to the idea that we will never know how many died of covid. Every measure that you try to use has its own pitfalls. The within 28 days measure gives quick answers and it has been believed that the erroneous ones ('run over by a bus on the way back from the testing site') have been balanced by the 'died on day 29' ones. Its possible that this rough and ready measure, great for early indication of how many are dying, is wrong in either direction. Its also possibly wrong in different directions at different time points. For instance in March/April 2020 it would likely have undercounted due to the restrictions on tests, while currently with the higher level of incidental covid cases in hospital, it may be over counting.
Using death certificates is not conclusive either - not all the factors mentioned may have been causal, and its slower to get answers.
Even excess death is not rock solid - yes measuring against a 5 year average will smooth things out but it certainly doesn't guarantee accuracy.
So, like so much else, its complicated.
The "run over by a bus" coincidental deaths (Or more likely, would have simply died anyway) are somewhere between 5,000 (My estimate when I age stratified the peak of the Omicron pandemic) and 11,500 (No age stratification).
Any argument in my view is between the following figures
Death cert @ 176,513 28 day deaths @ 155,040 Excess Deaths UK implied @ 134,670*
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
I think that an over estimate, as prevalence of covid has been highest in the young, and deaths in the elderly, but as a quick and dirty estimate not too far off.
Worth noting of course that many covid deaths have happened after 28 days.
Which of course goes back to the idea that we will never know how many died of covid. Every measure that you try to use has its own pitfalls. The within 28 days measure gives quick answers and it has been believed that the erroneous ones ('run over by a bus on the way back from the testing site') have been balanced by the 'died on day 29' ones. Its possible that this rough and ready measure, great for early indication of how many are dying, is wrong in either direction. Its also possibly wrong in different directions at different time points. For instance in March/April 2020 it would likely have undercounted due to the restrictions on tests, while currently with the higher level of incidental covid cases in hospital, it may be over counting.
Using death certificates is not conclusive either - not all the factors mentioned may have been causal, and its slower to get answers.
Even excess death is not rock solid - yes measuring against a 5 year average will smooth things out but it certainly doesn't guarantee accuracy.
So, like so much else, its complicated.
The "run over by a bus" coincidental deaths (Or more likely, would have simply died anyway) are somewhere between 5,000 (My estimate when I age stratified the peak of the Omicron pandemic) and 11,500 (No age stratification).
Any argument in my view is between the following figures
Death cert @ 176,513 28 day deaths @ 155,040 Excess Deaths UK implied @ 134,670*
Regarding Covid: I am very sure that we are not at the end of the pandemic. The end of the pandemic has been claimed many times before. The reality is that we just don't know what the virus will do next.
However it is also quite easy to see that the current system of managing the pandemic is inappropriate and disproportionate to the actual threat posed by the virus. The problems being faced by society and in the economy are predominantly caused by the public health rules initiated as a consequence of the virus, and not the virus itself.
The sheer scale of the project of managing the pandemic, and the time it has been going on, has created a problem of producer interest. There are a vast amount of jobs and investments that rely on the continued management of the pandemic as at present.
The challenge is to wind down the system, whilst keeping the essential infrastructure and systems in place, so they can be quickly wound back up when needed. Thats not an easy task.
Why should we not be at the end of the pandemic? Pandemics do end. Spanish flu ended. Hong Kong flu ended. Even bubonic plague ended. Even AIDS “ended” tho it took ages and needed better treatments
Depends what you mean by "ended". Most epidemiologists would say the HIV/AIDS pandemic is still ongoing.
Allies of PM point suggest that if suspected law breaches are taken out of Sue Gray - “they take out the juicier stuff and we just hear the residue” as one minister put it, the full details may never come out, as police won’t provide narrative of who knew what when issuing fine…
Yes, exactly. If we never get to know what Martin Reynolds says he told Johnson about the May 20th party it will look beyond fishy. This looks to be going one of 2 ways. He survives. Or he gets kicked out in utter disgrace under a haze of rank corruption.
"Total rhubarb." What does this over emphatic wannabe comic denial remind me of?
Ah yes. "An inverted pyramid of piffle." Which turned out to be a denial of something that was absolutely true.
We can't say we were not warned.
It's clever because it sounds like a denial but it really isn't. Yet another example of how Johnson uses his constructed comic persona to avoid abiding by the same rules as everyone else.
Yes, those of us who looked it up quickly found that 'piffle' did not mean 'nonsense', but meant 'unimportant talk'. See also 'a fulsome apology' - which did not mean 'a full apology' but meant 'an over the top and not particularly sincere apology'.
There was quite a good piece on more or less about this. Basically there are only 17k death certificates which narrate Covid alone as the cause of death. In roughly 9x that there are other causes but these may be subsidiary to Covid. Eg, they may have caught pneumonia as a result of Covid, had a heart attack, other organ failure etc.
Sometimes, the other cause will be the main cause of death so the person has died with Covid rather than of it but their position was that in at least 150k cases so far Covid had played a major part in the death.
But that 150K is already known to be rubbish. People are dying of causes completely unrelated to Covid where it is not even a contributory factor - such as my cousin who had terminal cancer - and because they had Covid in the last 28 days it is recorded as a cause of death even though it was clear he had recovered from that. The idea that all 150,000 recorded Covid deaths to date were with Covid as a contributory factor is clearly bollocks.
What is sad, is that hotel could be anywhere - default modern holiday hotel architecture, complete with mood lighting.
Just drop from orbit, next to a random beach....
Because, you know, you’ve been here?
It’s quite a famous hotel designed by Sri Lankan architects. They have incorporated Sri Lankan art, pottery, stylings, sculptures, woods, even brickwork, throughout
I’ve seen some shocking hotels in my time. Some of the worst can be the 5 star jobs. Generic, oversized and sterile
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
I think that an over estimate, as prevalence of covid has been highest in the young, and deaths in the elderly, but as a quick and dirty estimate not too far off.
Worth noting of course that many covid deaths have happened after 28 days.
Which of course goes back to the idea that we will never know how many died of covid. Every measure that you try to use has its own pitfalls. The within 28 days measure gives quick answers and it has been believed that the erroneous ones ('run over by a bus on the way back from the testing site') have been balanced by the 'died on day 29' ones. Its possible that this rough and ready measure, great for early indication of how many are dying, is wrong in either direction. Its also possibly wrong in different directions at different time points. For instance in March/April 2020 it would likely have undercounted due to the restrictions on tests, while currently with the higher level of incidental covid cases in hospital, it may be over counting.
Using death certificates is not conclusive either - not all the factors mentioned may have been causal, and its slower to get answers.
Even excess death is not rock solid - yes measuring against a 5 year average will smooth things out but it certainly doesn't guarantee accuracy.
So, like so much else, its complicated.
One thing is certain. Counting only deaths where COVID is the sole cause on the death certificate as COVID deaths, is bollocks.
If the AIDS parallel applies, then aren't "deaths where COVID is the sole cause on the death certificate" just deaths where the certifying doctor didn't bother to put on the actual direct cause of death?
Everyone dies of cardiac arrest etc. etc.
That wouldnt really qualify, as it is a mode of death rather than a cause.
There is quite a lot of variation in what is listed as primary and underlying cause.
Impressive. @Leon For your writing do you just need a laptop so can travel anywhere? Do you travel alone? I ask because I like my own company and like being alone at times (I am at the moment while my wife is away), but I think I would get lonely if I traveled alone or go to events alone, but I know lots do. It is something I dread if that ever happened to me. If you are alone, you seem to thrive on it and I am very jealous.
I have discovered after decades of travel that if you travel alone you can actually ...
... sit around on a UK political betting forum trolling people.
Seriously Sean, if it's so great then spend a little less time boasting to people on here about this or that and, worse, discussing UK politics and spend more time engaging with the local culture (by which I don't mean sleeping with their teenagers).
I've travelled the globe and may do so again when covid abates and I feel it'll be fun again. But I've never gone to far flung countries and felt the need to park myself on a UK forum.
Or maybe just be honest and tell people you're lonely out there. We'd be more sympathetic than when you go all alpha-male bombast.
Just had political pamphlets from MSP's , not a mention anywhere that they were Labour and Tory. What a bunch of no marks, Labour one was a Baroness , PMSL.
Did the Tory one say anything about No to Indy? Used to be all 'Say No Surrender for Ruthie" even in local council elections. I was very surprised by my last a week or two back - that sort of thing was dropped even by my list MSP. Obvs ashamed of pushing the notion of rule by No 10.
Allies of PM point suggest that if suspected law breaches are taken out of Sue Gray - “they take out the juicier stuff and we just hear the residue” as one minister put it, the full details may never come out, as police won’t provide narrative of who knew what when issuing fine…
Yes, exactly. If we never get to know what Martin Reynolds says he told Johnson about the May 20th party it will look beyond fishy. This looks to be going one of 2 ways. He survives. Or he gets kicked out in utter disgrace under a haze of rank corruption.
Well, except we will all clamour for the release of Gray *eventually.* I will anyway
Of course if you are purely looking to buy time, no matter the consequences down the road, you take the most damaging evidence and make a deliberately obvious and ham fisted attempt to suppress it, to ensure it becomes part of the police investigation.
“A luxury seafront boutique hotel in Galle with a personal feel, contemporary styling, excellent food and luxuriously appointed rooms facing the Indian Ocean or the town’s 17th-century Dutch fort.”
Impressive. @Leon For your writing do you just need a laptop so can travel anywhere? Do you travel alone? I ask because I like my own company and like being alone at times (I am at the moment while my wife is away), but I think I would get lonely if I traveled alone or go to events alone, but I know lots do. It is something I dread if that ever happened to me. If you are alone, you seem to thrive on it and I am very jealous.
All i need is a chisel for my flints, yes
And as for tolerating loneliness, yes absolutely. I have discovered after decades of travel that if you travel alone you can actually have MORE interesting experiences, in general. Because you are forced to - you meet other people, you fall into conversation, you have adventures
It’s not an iron law. I’ve had truly wonderful experiences in a couple or a group, but many of the best have been solitary
The internet really helps of course. If i am feeling lonely - and that definitely happens, it is the price you pay - I can WhatsApp or email or whatever with friends and most of it disappears. Or i can come on here and argue myself stupid over gin.
Try it! And of course if you are alone you do EXACTLY what you want
However well you get on, travel as a pair or group is inevitably a negotiation; on your own there is a remarkable freedom to go and do whatever you want, whenever you want. And do things that you’d screen out if you had to impose them on someone else or, indeed, to decide to do nothing and see what turns up, with no expectations, because there’s no-one asking ‘what are we doing today?’, and you don’t have to worry about trying to turn an aimless day into a purposeful one.
You just need the self reliance to be able to enjoy doing stuff because you’re doing it, without needing someone to tell that you’re doing it. Or use PB, of course, like Sean does.
I remember one holiday in Malta, when Mrs Foxy and the boys chose the swimming pool on a roasting day, rather than the neolithic sites. On another occasion while at the World Cup in St Petersberg, I couldnt get the boys interested in the Museum of Artillery. There really is no accounting for some peoples idea of a holiday...
I've very rarely travelled alone - I've never really been single - but on the few occasions I have, I've loved it. Never felt bereft of company. And conversation has ALWAYS turned up. If you are travelling in a couple of a group you seem to send out a force field which wards off external company and conversation - some gets through but little does; as soon as you are on your own, this force field drops away and suddenly you get into conversations.
Please tell me that the whole coastline hasn't been trashed by condos, hotels etc.
Most of it is untouched
That's good. But for how long?
Several years ago I was in Crete - beautiful - but I was dismayed by the number of estate agents offering coastal sites for sale. They were all English-language promotions so clearly going after Brits seeking the good life. It was pretty clear that the remaining undeveloped coastline was likely to be wrecked before long.
Fortunately the Cretan interior is pretty dramatic and for most of the holiday that's where we headed. White Mountains etc. Just such a shame about the fate of the coast.
The Coronavirus regulations were made under the provisions of the Public Health (Control of Diseases) Act 1984. The relevant bit, as it stood in May 2020 is: 64ATime limits for prosecutions (1)Notwithstanding anything in section 127(1) of the Magistrates' Courts Act 1980, a magistrates' court may try an information (or written charge) relating to an offence created by or under this Act if the information is laid (or the charge is issued)— (a)before the end of the period of 3 years beginning with the date of the commission of the offence, and (b)before the end of the period of 6 months beginning with the date on which evidence which the prosecutor thinks is sufficient to justify the proceedings comes to the prosecutor's knowledge. (2)For the purposes of subsection (1)(b)— (a)a certificate signed by or on behalf of the prosecutor and stating the date on which such evidence came to the prosecutor's knowledge is conclusive evidence of that fact, and (b)a certificate stating that matter and purporting to be so signed is to be treated as so signed unless the contrary is proved.
So to bring a prosecution in the event of not paying a fixed penalty the prosecutor has to certify that he did not know of the information that would be the basis of the charge more than 6 months before the charge is issued. But if police were present at the party of 20th May 2020 how can they certify that? The 6 month time limit usually arises in the context of motoring offences where the police have either stopped someone or they have been caught on camera. That is because the police know at the time that the offence has been committed (because they were there) or when the camera took the picture.
If the evidence indicates that, for security reasons, the police were aware of the comings and goings add, for example, the consumption of alcohol in the garden, I think that is a problem. If there cannot be a prosecution then there surely cannot be any basis for issuing a fixed penalty. A FP has to be based on a prosecutable offence.
Yes. WTF were the number 10 police doing? They’ve seriously fked up.
Allies of PM point suggest that if suspected law breaches are taken out of Sue Gray - “they take out the juicier stuff and we just hear the residue” as one minister put it, the full details may never come out, as police won’t provide narrative of who knew what when issuing fine…
Yes, exactly. If we never get to know what Martin Reynolds says he told Johnson about the May 20th party it will look beyond fishy. This looks to be going one of 2 ways. He survives. Or he gets kicked out in utter disgrace under a haze of rank corruption.
What it needs is for Sue Gray to make clear that what she is publishing now is only an interim report until after the Police have finished their enquiries and then she will insist on the whole thing being published.
Either that or someone will hopefully leak the bloody thing.
Sri Lanka is beautiful, although I'm not sure that picture really does it justice. In fact, Sri Lanka isn't that great as a beach holiday destination IMHO, certainly compared to the Maldives or the Caribbean. The best stuff in SL is inland.
There was quite a good piece on more or less about this. Basically there are only 17k death certificates which narrate Covid alone as the cause of death. In roughly 9x that there are other causes but these may be subsidiary to Covid. Eg, they may have caught pneumonia as a result of Covid, had a heart attack, other organ failure etc.
Sometimes, the other cause will be the main cause of death so the person has died with Covid rather than of it but their position was that in at least 150k cases so far Covid had played a major part in the death.
But that 150K is already known to be rubbish. People are dying of causes completely unrelated to Covid where it is not even a contributory factor - such as my cousin who had terminal cancer - and because they had Covid in the last 28 days it is recorded as a cause of death even though it was clear he had recovered from that. The idea that all 150,000 recorded Covid deaths to date were with Covid as a contributory factor is clearly bollocks.
I think it is very hard to say Richard. Clearly in some cases, like your cousin's it will be. Equally clearly quite a few people die with Covid at least a major contributing factor more than 28 days later, possibly because of the damage that has been done.
What I would agree and I think is beyond doubt is that Omicron means the proportion dying with rather than of Covid is increasing, especially for the fully vaccinated. It is also beyond doubt whatever the actual figure is it is not 17k or anything like it.
I've slept in hundreds and hundreds of hotels around the world, many rated as luxury but, end of the day, they're still hotels. It amuses, and irritates, me that Sean seems to think he's a guru on travel on behalf of the poor little pb underlings.
Most of the great ones haven't been concrete blocks but more akin to luxury villas with privacy and views. But, then, I'm a nature lover and like to get away.
One of the best experiences was a little tree house on the Gulf of Thailand. No one around and just the waves rolling onto the beach day and night. Cost a few dollars and was far better than the most luxurious I've stayed in costing hundreds a night.
A hat trick for the Tories: Con hold on Kent CC -Wilmington.
Surprisingly robust Tory performance. I read somewhere that this area is pretty similar, and close to, Old Bexley and Sidcup where, again, there was a better-than-expected performance in the by-election. Presume its solid middle-class, oldish, with none of the accoutrements that lend themselves to LibDem tendencies.
I worked in the area for many years - it's more lower m/c and aspirational w/c to be fair. In my view these are among the more solid Tory voters which resemble many parts of the so-called Red Wall parts of the north. Dartford and Gravesend were both Labour seats duringt the Blair years and earlier would often see-saw. Nowadays they're pretty safe Tory areas with little sign of any big changes despite all of the recent kerfuffles which have excited so many on here.
Impressive. @Leon For your writing do you just need a laptop so can travel anywhere? Do you travel alone? I ask because I like my own company and like being alone at times (I am at the moment while my wife is away), but I think I would get lonely if I traveled alone or go to events alone, but I know lots do. It is something I dread if that ever happened to me. If you are alone, you seem to thrive on it and I am very jealous.
I have discovered after decades of travel that if you travel alone you can actually ...
... sit around on a UK political betting forum trolling people.
Seriously Sean, if it's so great then spend a little less time boasting to people on here about this or that and, worse, discussing UK politics and spend more time engaging with the local culture (by which I don't mean sleeping with their teenagers).
I've travelled the globe and may do so again when covid abates and I feel it'll be fun again. But I've never gone to far flung countries and felt the need to park myself on a UK forum.
Or maybe just be honest and tell people you're lonely out there. We'd be more sympathetic than when you go all alpha-male bombast.
Wary of white knighting this, in fact he has talked about PB helping with isolation during lockdown etc.
Let's all just ignore the things that irritate us, i assume that's what people do with most of my posts.
“A luxury seafront boutique hotel in Galle with a personal feel, contemporary styling, excellent food and luxuriously appointed rooms facing the Indian Ocean or the town’s 17th-century Dutch fort.”
I've stayed in many places exactly like that seems to be*. All very nice. Modern, polished, minimalist. Some local decoration added to the basic design. Cocktails and food reliable.
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
That's 11,500 per year, right? So ~23k over the ~2 years of the pandemic?
(Now expecting to be told I've missed something obvious...)
No, you don't need to double it, because the 1/4 of the population is over the whole pandemic, so the estimate of deaths is as well.
As an even rougher rule of thumb, you can say that the probability of anyone dying in a given year is about 1%, and in a given month about 0.1%. It's much smaller than the ratio of the death rate to positive tests before most people were vaccinated, and even before Omicron. But it's more comparable now.
The answer to 'how many deaths did covid cause' is very difficult to pin down. Not many people who died did not have other conditions. But having - say - asthma is not a death sentence by itself. You can ask how long the individual would have lived had they not caught covid. It's impossible to answer of course - would they have caught flu if not covid? - would they have been hit by the proverbial bus the next day? - but you can ask it. But even if you can estimate an answer, there is a question of where you draw the line. My next door neighbour, for example, died of covid last August, I think - but he also had an unusual variant of Parkinson's disease, which 18 months previously had given him 12 months to live. He was already on borrowed time. It would have been a major surprise had he made it through another winter. So do you include him in the 'killed by covid' figures? I would argue probably not. But I am sure there are countless examples of those with co-morbidities where covid finished them off but who might have reasonably expected another 5, 10 years. It's hard to say in those cases that they would have died anyway. Where do you draw the line? Another 6 months? Another 2 years? 5?
As always, I'd say the key figure of interest in excess deaths.
A hat trick for the Tories: Con hold on Kent CC -Wilmington.
Surprisingly robust Tory performance. I read somewhere that this area is pretty similar, and close to, Old Bexley and Sidcup where, again, there was a better-than-expected performance in the by-election. Presume its solid middle-class, oldish, with none of the accoutrements that lend themselves to LibDem tendencies.
I worked in the area for many years - it's more lower m/c and aspirational w/c to be fair. In my view these are among the more solid Tory voters which resemble many parts of the so-called Red Wall parts of the north. Dartford and Gravesend were both Labour seats duringt the Blair years and earlier would often see-saw. Nowadays they're pretty safe Tory areas with little sign of any big changes despite all of the recent kerfuffles which have excited so many on here.
Dartford has the longest running record of choosing the government party. Back to 1964. It is the bellwether seat. For now anyway. I suspect that will change with the next non-Tory government, however.
I've slept in hundreds and hundreds of hotels around the world, many rated as luxury but, end of the day, they're still hotels. It amuses, and irritates, me that Sean seems to think he's a guru on travel on behalf of the poor little pb underlings.
Most of the great ones haven't been concrete blocks but more akin to luxury villas with privacy and views. But, then, I'm a nature lover and like to get away.
One of the best experiences was a little tree house on the Gulf of Thailand. No one around and just the waves rolling onto the beach day and night. Cost a few dollars and was far better than the most luxurious I've stayed in costing hundreds a night.
The majority of expensive hotels aren't worth the money. Often they have smaller rooms than budget hotels.
“A luxury seafront boutique hotel in Galle with a personal feel, contemporary styling, excellent food and luxuriously appointed rooms facing the Indian Ocean or the town’s 17th-century Dutch fort.”
I've stayed in many places exactly like that seems to be*. All very nice. Modern, polished, minimalist. Some local decoration added to the basic design. Cocktails and food reliable.
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
That's 11,500 per year, right? So ~23k over the ~2 years of the pandemic?
(Now expecting to be told I've missed something obvious...)
No, you don't need to double it, because the 1/4 of the population is over the whole pandemic, so the estimate of deaths is as well.
As an even rougher rule of thumb, you can say that the probability of anyone dying in a given year is about 1%, and in a given month about 0.1%. It's much smaller than the ratio of the death rate to positive tests before most people were vaccinated, and even before Omicron. But it's more comparable now.
The answer to 'how many deaths did covid cause' is very difficult to pin down. Not many people who died did not have other conditions. But having - say - asthma is not a death sentence by itself. You can ask how long the individual would have lived had they not caught covid. It's impossible to answer of course - would they have caught flu if not covid? - would they have been hit by the proverbial bus the next day? - but you can ask it. But even if you can estimate an answer, there is a question of where you draw the line. My next door neighbour, for example, died of covid last August, I think - but he also had an unusual variant of Parkinson's disease, which 18 months previously had given him 12 months to live. He was already on borrowed time. It would have been a major surprise had he made it through another winter. So do you include him in the 'killed by covid' figures? I would argue probably not. But I am sure there are countless examples of those with co-morbidities where covid finished them off but who might have reasonably expected another 5, 10 years. It's hard to say in those cases that they would have died anyway. Where do you draw the line? Another 6 months? Another 2 years? 5?
As always, I'd say the key figure of interest in excess deaths.
Excess deaths is pretty clearly the best estimate we have, and not just because it's the most reliable comparisobn between countries. It'll be too high, but hopefully not by much.
A hat trick for the Tories: Con hold on Kent CC -Wilmington.
Surprisingly robust Tory performance. I read somewhere that this area is pretty similar, and close to, Old Bexley and Sidcup where, again, there was a better-than-expected performance in the by-election. Presume its solid middle-class, oldish, with none of the accoutrements that lend themselves to LibDem tendencies.
I worked in the area for many years - it's more lower m/c and aspirational w/c to be fair. In my view these are among the more solid Tory voters which resemble many parts of the so-called Red Wall parts of the north. Dartford and Gravesend were both Labour seats duringt the Blair years and earlier would often see-saw. Nowadays they're pretty safe Tory areas with little sign of any big changes despite all of the recent kerfuffles which have excited so many on here.
Dartford has the longest running record of choosing the government party. Back to 1964. It is the bellwether seat. For now anyway. I suspect that will change with the next non-Tory government, however.
“A luxury seafront boutique hotel in Galle with a personal feel, contemporary styling, excellent food and luxuriously appointed rooms facing the Indian Ocean or the town’s 17th-century Dutch fort.”
I've stayed in many places exactly like that seems to be*. All very nice. Modern, polished, minimalist. Some local decoration added to the basic design. Cocktails and food reliable.
Every touristic country has them now.
*The children like them.
You’re a tough crowd
Not really. If you spend money on holidays, for a family, you tend to end up in something like that. Unless you really fight the demand for luxury bathrooms etc.
I have stayed in that hotel. Pleasant but not world-class.
I agree with travelling alone - best holiday I had in recent times was in Mexico. I visted historical sites in the day and did things at night that SeanT would be proud of.
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
That's 11,500 per year, right? So ~23k over the ~2 years of the pandemic?
(Now expecting to be told I've missed something obvious...)
No, you don't need to double it, because the 1/4 of the population is over the whole pandemic, so the estimate of deaths is as well.
As an even rougher rule of thumb, you can say that the probability of anyone dying in a given year is about 1%, and in a given month about 0.1%. It's much smaller than the ratio of the death rate to positive tests before most people were vaccinated, and even before Omicron. But it's more comparable now.
The answer to 'how many deaths did covid cause' is very difficult to pin down. Not many people who died did not have other conditions. But having - say - asthma is not a death sentence by itself. You can ask how long the individual would have lived had they not caught covid. It's impossible to answer of course - would they have caught flu if not covid? - would they have been hit by the proverbial bus the next day? - but you can ask it. But even if you can estimate an answer, there is a question of where you draw the line. My next door neighbour, for example, died of covid last August, I think - but he also had an unusual variant of Parkinson's disease, which 18 months previously had given him 12 months to live. He was already on borrowed time. It would have been a major surprise had he made it through another winter. So do you include him in the 'killed by covid' figures? I would argue probably not. But I am sure there are countless examples of those with co-morbidities where covid finished them off but who might have reasonably expected another 5, 10 years. It's hard to say in those cases that they would have died anyway. Where do you draw the line? Another 6 months? Another 2 years? 5?
As always, I'd say the key figure of interest in excess deaths.
Excess deaths is pretty clearly the best estimate we have, and not just because it's the most reliable comparisobn between countries. It'll be too high, but hopefully not by much.
Excess deaths does, of course, include people killed by lockdown. But I'd say that is of interest too.
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
That's 11,500 per year, right? So ~23k over the ~2 years of the pandemic?
(Now expecting to be told I've missed something obvious...)
No, you don't need to double it, because the 1/4 of the population is over the whole pandemic, so the estimate of deaths is as well.
As an even rougher rule of thumb, you can say that the probability of anyone dying in a given year is about 1%, and in a given month about 0.1%. It's much smaller than the ratio of the death rate to positive tests before most people were vaccinated, and even before Omicron. But it's more comparable now.
The answer to 'how many deaths did covid cause' is very difficult to pin down. Not many people who died did not have other conditions. But having - say - asthma is not a death sentence by itself. You can ask how long the individual would have lived had they not caught covid. It's impossible to answer of course - would they have caught flu if not covid? - would they have been hit by the proverbial bus the next day? - but you can ask it. But even if you can estimate an answer, there is a question of where you draw the line. My next door neighbour, for example, died of covid last August, I think - but he also had an unusual variant of Parkinson's disease, which 18 months previously had given him 12 months to live. He was already on borrowed time. It would have been a major surprise had he made it through another winter. So do you include him in the 'killed by covid' figures? I would argue probably not. But I am sure there are countless examples of those with co-morbidities where covid finished them off but who might have reasonably expected another 5, 10 years. It's hard to say in those cases that they would have died anyway. Where do you draw the line? Another 6 months? Another 2 years? 5?
As always, I'd say the key figure of interest in excess deaths.
Excess deaths is pretty clearly the best estimate we have, and not just because it's the most reliable comparisobn between countries. It'll be too high, but hopefully not by much.
Is it true that excess deaths have been less than usual recently? Seem to remember reading this somewhere.
I have stayed in that hotel. Pleasant but not world-class.
I agree with travelling alone - best holiday I had in recent times was in Mexico. I visted historical sites in the day and did things at night that SeanT would be proud of.
It’s not the Four Seasons Firenze but what marks it out is the location. In my truly HUMBLE opinion
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
That's 11,500 per year, right? So ~23k over the ~2 years of the pandemic?
(Now expecting to be told I've missed something obvious...)
No, you don't need to double it, because the 1/4 of the population is over the whole pandemic, so the estimate of deaths is as well.
As an even rougher rule of thumb, you can say that the probability of anyone dying in a given year is about 1%, and in a given month about 0.1%. It's much smaller than the ratio of the death rate to positive tests before most people were vaccinated, and even before Omicron. But it's more comparable now.
The answer to 'how many deaths did covid cause' is very difficult to pin down. Not many people who died did not have other conditions. But having - say - asthma is not a death sentence by itself. You can ask how long the individual would have lived had they not caught covid. It's impossible to answer of course - would they have caught flu if not covid? - would they have been hit by the proverbial bus the next day? - but you can ask it. But even if you can estimate an answer, there is a question of where you draw the line. My next door neighbour, for example, died of covid last August, I think - but he also had an unusual variant of Parkinson's disease, which 18 months previously had given him 12 months to live. He was already on borrowed time. It would have been a major surprise had he made it through another winter. So do you include him in the 'killed by covid' figures? I would argue probably not. But I am sure there are countless examples of those with co-morbidities where covid finished them off but who might have reasonably expected another 5, 10 years. It's hard to say in those cases that they would have died anyway. Where do you draw the line? Another 6 months? Another 2 years? 5?
As always, I'd say the key figure of interest in excess deaths.
Excess deaths is pretty clearly the best estimate we have, and not just because it's the most reliable comparisobn between countries. It'll be too high, but hopefully not by much.
Excess deaths does, of course, include people killed by lockdown. But I'd say that is of interest too.
The average age of people dying from Covid-19 is apparently 82.5, which is slightly higher than the overall average age.
I've slept in hundreds and hundreds of hotels around the world, many rated as luxury but, end of the day, they're still hotels. It amuses, and irritates, me that Sean seems to think he's a guru on travel on behalf of the poor little pb underlings.
Most of the great ones haven't been concrete blocks but more akin to luxury villas with privacy and views. But, then, I'm a nature lover and like to get away.
One of the best experiences was a little tree house on the Gulf of Thailand. No one around and just the waves rolling onto the beach day and night. Cost a few dollars and was far better than the most luxurious I've stayed in costing hundreds a night.
The majority of expensive hotels aren't worth the money. Often they have smaller rooms than budget hotels.
The front part of the Hotel was genuinely old. At the back was a horrid block of modern stuff. I had a room in the old part. Lots of lovely old wood, elegant ceilings etc. Probably all trashed now.
The barman could build a good Stinger, and the coffee was excellent.
There was a mad restaurant down the road, where a local genius created incredible food. What you ordered and what you got was barely related.... but no-one cared.
Walk a bit further and you could see the dome of the Cathedral, down the via D'Oriuolo (I think)
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
That's 11,500 per year, right? So ~23k over the ~2 years of the pandemic?
(Now expecting to be told I've missed something obvious...)
No, you don't need to double it, because the 1/4 of the population is over the whole pandemic, so the estimate of deaths is as well.
As an even rougher rule of thumb, you can say that the probability of anyone dying in a given year is about 1%, and in a given month about 0.1%. It's much smaller than the ratio of the death rate to positive tests before most people were vaccinated, and even before Omicron. But it's more comparable now.
The answer to 'how many deaths did covid cause' is very difficult to pin down. Not many people who died did not have other conditions. But having - say - asthma is not a death sentence by itself. You can ask how long the individual would have lived had they not caught covid. It's impossible to answer of course - would they have caught flu if not covid? - would they have been hit by the proverbial bus the next day? - but you can ask it. But even if you can estimate an answer, there is a question of where you draw the line. My next door neighbour, for example, died of covid last August, I think - but he also had an unusual variant of Parkinson's disease, which 18 months previously had given him 12 months to live. He was already on borrowed time. It would have been a major surprise had he made it through another winter. So do you include him in the 'killed by covid' figures? I would argue probably not. But I am sure there are countless examples of those with co-morbidities where covid finished them off but who might have reasonably expected another 5, 10 years. It's hard to say in those cases that they would have died anyway. Where do you draw the line? Another 6 months? Another 2 years? 5?
As always, I'd say the key figure of interest in excess deaths.
Excess deaths is pretty clearly the best estimate we have, and not just because it's the most reliable comparisobn between countries. It'll be too high, but hopefully not by much.
Excess deaths does, of course, include people killed by lockdown. But I'd say that is of interest too.
Indeed so, that's what I meant when I said "it'll be too high" - it would be nice to know the number of people killed by lockdown as a separate figure, though, not lumped in with all the people killed by the virus. It would be pretty difficult to measure, though.
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
That's 11,500 per year, right? So ~23k over the ~2 years of the pandemic?
(Now expecting to be told I've missed something obvious...)
No, you don't need to double it, because the 1/4 of the population is over the whole pandemic, so the estimate of deaths is as well.
As an even rougher rule of thumb, you can say that the probability of anyone dying in a given year is about 1%, and in a given month about 0.1%. It's much smaller than the ratio of the death rate to positive tests before most people were vaccinated, and even before Omicron. But it's more comparable now.
The answer to 'how many deaths did covid cause' is very difficult to pin down. Not many people who died did not have other conditions. But having - say - asthma is not a death sentence by itself. You can ask how long the individual would have lived had they not caught covid. It's impossible to answer of course - would they have caught flu if not covid? - would they have been hit by the proverbial bus the next day? - but you can ask it. But even if you can estimate an answer, there is a question of where you draw the line. My next door neighbour, for example, died of covid last August, I think - but he also had an unusual variant of Parkinson's disease, which 18 months previously had given him 12 months to live. He was already on borrowed time. It would have been a major surprise had he made it through another winter. So do you include him in the 'killed by covid' figures? I would argue probably not. But I am sure there are countless examples of those with co-morbidities where covid finished them off but who might have reasonably expected another 5, 10 years. It's hard to say in those cases that they would have died anyway. Where do you draw the line? Another 6 months? Another 2 years? 5?
As always, I'd say the key figure of interest in excess deaths.
Excess deaths is pretty clearly the best estimate we have, and not just because it's the most reliable comparisobn between countries. It'll be too high, but hopefully not by much.
Excess deaths does, of course, include people killed by lockdown. But I'd say that is of interest too.
The average age of people dying from Covid-19 is apparently 82.5, which is slightly higher than the overall average age.
Yes, but life expectancy aged 82 years is not zero!
The actuarial estimate is that the average covid death lost 10 years of life.
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
That's 11,500 per year, right? So ~23k over the ~2 years of the pandemic?
(Now expecting to be told I've missed something obvious...)
No, you don't need to double it, because the 1/4 of the population is over the whole pandemic, so the estimate of deaths is as well.
As an even rougher rule of thumb, you can say that the probability of anyone dying in a given year is about 1%, and in a given month about 0.1%. It's much smaller than the ratio of the death rate to positive tests before most people were vaccinated, and even before Omicron. But it's more comparable now.
The answer to 'how many deaths did covid cause' is very difficult to pin down. Not many people who died did not have other conditions. But having - say - asthma is not a death sentence by itself. You can ask how long the individual would have lived had they not caught covid. It's impossible to answer of course - would they have caught flu if not covid? - would they have been hit by the proverbial bus the next day? - but you can ask it. But even if you can estimate an answer, there is a question of where you draw the line. My next door neighbour, for example, died of covid last August, I think - but he also had an unusual variant of Parkinson's disease, which 18 months previously had given him 12 months to live. He was already on borrowed time. It would have been a major surprise had he made it through another winter. So do you include him in the 'killed by covid' figures? I would argue probably not. But I am sure there are countless examples of those with co-morbidities where covid finished them off but who might have reasonably expected another 5, 10 years. It's hard to say in those cases that they would have died anyway. Where do you draw the line? Another 6 months? Another 2 years? 5?
As always, I'd say the key figure of interest in excess deaths.
Excess deaths is pretty clearly the best estimate we have, and not just because it's the most reliable comparisobn between countries. It'll be too high, but hopefully not by much.
Excess deaths does, of course, include people killed by lockdown. But I'd say that is of interest too.
Indeed so, that's what I meant when I said "it'll be too high" - it would be nice to know the number of people killed by lockdown as a separate figure, though, not lumped in with all the people killed by the virus. It would be pretty difficult to measure, though.
We know that excess deaths have mostly occurred at the same time as 28 day deaths, and certificated deaths. Those due to lockdown would be spread more evenly. Indeed excess deaths have gone negative at times during lockdown away from the peaks.
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
That's 11,500 per year, right? So ~23k over the ~2 years of the pandemic?
(Now expecting to be told I've missed something obvious...)
No, you don't need to double it, because the 1/4 of the population is over the whole pandemic, so the estimate of deaths is as well.
As an even rougher rule of thumb, you can say that the probability of anyone dying in a given year is about 1%, and in a given month about 0.1%. It's much smaller than the ratio of the death rate to positive tests before most people were vaccinated, and even before Omicron. But it's more comparable now.
The answer to 'how many deaths did covid cause' is very difficult to pin down. Not many people who died did not have other conditions. But having - say - asthma is not a death sentence by itself. You can ask how long the individual would have lived had they not caught covid. It's impossible to answer of course - would they have caught flu if not covid? - would they have been hit by the proverbial bus the next day? - but you can ask it. But even if you can estimate an answer, there is a question of where you draw the line. My next door neighbour, for example, died of covid last August, I think - but he also had an unusual variant of Parkinson's disease, which 18 months previously had given him 12 months to live. He was already on borrowed time. It would have been a major surprise had he made it through another winter. So do you include him in the 'killed by covid' figures? I would argue probably not. But I am sure there are countless examples of those with co-morbidities where covid finished them off but who might have reasonably expected another 5, 10 years. It's hard to say in those cases that they would have died anyway. Where do you draw the line? Another 6 months? Another 2 years? 5?
As always, I'd say the key figure of interest in excess deaths.
Excess deaths is pretty clearly the best estimate we have, and not just because it's the most reliable comparisobn between countries. It'll be too high, but hopefully not by much.
Excess deaths does, of course, include people killed by lockdown. But I'd say that is of interest too.
Indeed so, that's what I meant when I said "it'll be too high" - it would be nice to know the number of people killed by lockdown as a separate figure, though, not lumped in with all the people killed by the virus. It would be pretty difficult to measure, though.
We know that excess deaths have mostly occurred at the same time as 28 day deaths, and certificated deaths. Those due to lockdown would be spread more evenly. Indeed excess deaths have gone negative at times during lockdown away from the peaks.
Among other things.... Am I right in saying that it's been a mild flu season?
Just had political pamphlets from MSP's , not a mention anywhere that they were Labour and Tory. What a bunch of no marks, Labour one was a Baroness , PMSL.
Did the Tory one say anything about No to Indy? Used to be all 'Say No Surrender for Ruthie" even in local council elections. I was very surprised by my last a week or two back - that sort of thing was dropped even by my list MSP. Obvs ashamed of pushing the notion of rule by No 10.
I had a leaflet in the last few days from a Conservative list MSP. Barely any mention of Conservatives on it, but barely any mention of indyref either. One of the best Tory leaflets I've had in a long, long time.
“A luxury seafront boutique hotel in Galle with a personal feel, contemporary styling, excellent food and luxuriously appointed rooms facing the Indian Ocean or the town’s 17th-century Dutch fort.”
I've stayed in many places exactly like that seems to be*. All very nice. Modern, polished, minimalist. Some local decoration added to the basic design. Cocktails and food reliable.
Every touristic country has them now.
*The children like them.
You’re a tough crowd
Yes, there are many reasons to give you a hard time. This doesn't really seem to be one of them; enjoy your stay.
A hat trick for the Tories: Con hold on Kent CC -Wilmington.
Surprisingly robust Tory performance. I read somewhere that this area is pretty similar, and close to, Old Bexley and Sidcup where, again, there was a better-than-expected performance in the by-election. Presume its solid middle-class, oldish, with none of the accoutrements that lend themselves to LibDem tendencies.
I worked in the area for many years - it's more lower m/c and aspirational w/c to be fair. In my view these are among the more solid Tory voters which resemble many parts of the so-called Red Wall parts of the north. Dartford and Gravesend were both Labour seats duringt the Blair years and earlier would often see-saw. Nowadays they're pretty safe Tory areas with little sign of any big changes despite all of the recent kerfuffles which have excited so many on here.
Dartford has the longest running record of choosing the government party. Back to 1964. It is the bellwether seat. For now anyway. I suspect that will change with the next non-Tory government, however.
Almost 20k majority last time. So yes!
Is the field for most bellwether seat seriously narrowed by seats being created and abolished, so only seats with full succession from 1964 can be considered?
That being so, I wonder if there are any geographies - wards or, given that wards change as well, parts of wards - that have tracked for longer.
I'm sure there are a decent number of geographies that have been blue forever or red since the first Labour government in terms of MPs, but I wonder how many places have been red/blue at all levels, I.e. councils and MPs, forever? I mean even Liverpool was LD run at one stage.
Tough one to find out at that granularity, but something I have wondered about at times.
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
That's 11,500 per year, right? So ~23k over the ~2 years of the pandemic?
(Now expecting to be told I've missed something obvious...)
No, you don't need to double it, because the 1/4 of the population is over the whole pandemic, so the estimate of deaths is as well.
As an even rougher rule of thumb, you can say that the probability of anyone dying in a given year is about 1%, and in a given month about 0.1%. It's much smaller than the ratio of the death rate to positive tests before most people were vaccinated, and even before Omicron. But it's more comparable now.
The answer to 'how many deaths did covid cause' is very difficult to pin down. Not many people who died did not have other conditions. But having - say - asthma is not a death sentence by itself. You can ask how long the individual would have lived had they not caught covid. It's impossible to answer of course - would they have caught flu if not covid? - would they have been hit by the proverbial bus the next day? - but you can ask it. But even if you can estimate an answer, there is a question of where you draw the line. My next door neighbour, for example, died of covid last August, I think - but he also had an unusual variant of Parkinson's disease, which 18 months previously had given him 12 months to live. He was already on borrowed time. It would have been a major surprise had he made it through another winter. So do you include him in the 'killed by covid' figures? I would argue probably not. But I am sure there are countless examples of those with co-morbidities where covid finished them off but who might have reasonably expected another 5, 10 years. It's hard to say in those cases that they would have died anyway. Where do you draw the line? Another 6 months? Another 2 years? 5?
As always, I'd say the key figure of interest in excess deaths.
Excess deaths is pretty clearly the best estimate we have, and not just because it's the most reliable comparisobn between countries. It'll be too high, but hopefully not by much.
Excess deaths does, of course, include people killed by lockdown. But I'd say that is of interest too.
The average age of people dying from Covid-19 is apparently 82.5, which is slightly higher than the overall average age.
Yes, but life expectancy aged 82 years is not zero!
The actuarial estimate is that the average covid death lost 10 years of life.
So not "people who were about to die anyway" as we've been repeatedly assure on here by the more hawkish antivaxxers and antimaskers?
There is a quick calculation for working out "coincidental" deaths within 28 days of a positive test which is remarkably simple.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid. 600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK. 28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
That's 11,500 per year, right? So ~23k over the ~2 years of the pandemic?
(Now expecting to be told I've missed something obvious...)
No, you don't need to double it, because the 1/4 of the population is over the whole pandemic, so the estimate of deaths is as well.
As an even rougher rule of thumb, you can say that the probability of anyone dying in a given year is about 1%, and in a given month about 0.1%. It's much smaller than the ratio of the death rate to positive tests before most people were vaccinated, and even before Omicron. But it's more comparable now.
The answer to 'how many deaths did covid cause' is very difficult to pin down. Not many people who died did not have other conditions. But having - say - asthma is not a death sentence by itself. You can ask how long the individual would have lived had they not caught covid. It's impossible to answer of course - would they have caught flu if not covid? - would they have been hit by the proverbial bus the next day? - but you can ask it. But even if you can estimate an answer, there is a question of where you draw the line. My next door neighbour, for example, died of covid last August, I think - but he also had an unusual variant of Parkinson's disease, which 18 months previously had given him 12 months to live. He was already on borrowed time. It would have been a major surprise had he made it through another winter. So do you include him in the 'killed by covid' figures? I would argue probably not. But I am sure there are countless examples of those with co-morbidities where covid finished them off but who might have reasonably expected another 5, 10 years. It's hard to say in those cases that they would have died anyway. Where do you draw the line? Another 6 months? Another 2 years? 5?
As always, I'd say the key figure of interest in excess deaths.
Excess deaths is pretty clearly the best estimate we have, and not just because it's the most reliable comparisobn between countries. It'll be too high, but hopefully not by much.
Is it true that excess deaths have been less than usual recently? Seem to remember reading this somewhere.
Yes slightly so in January 2022, though it does vary by region etc. London isnt much different for example, but the peaks clearly are at times of maximum pandemic, and the lows in the post pandemic periods of lockdown.
Comments
ONS debunks ‘spurious’ Covid deaths claim shared by David Davis
Suggestion true number of deaths in England and Wales could be as low as 17,000 is factually incorrect, says ONS
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/28/ons-debunks-spurious-covid-deaths-claim-shared-by-david-davis
Typically*, you'd expect each strain to come under its own selection pressure and mutate, so the graph moves rather like all the other variants - a relatively regular drift upwards in differences/amino acid changes with time . Omicron, as I understand it, comes from a branch of variants which first split off in ca. Autumn 2020.
*I actually don't know how 'typical' it is, tbh.
The Coronavirus regulations were made under the provisions of the Public Health (Control of Diseases) Act 1984.
The relevant bit, as it stood in May 2020 is:
64ATime limits for prosecutions
(1)Notwithstanding anything in section 127(1) of the Magistrates' Courts Act 1980, a magistrates' court may try an information (or written charge) relating to an offence created by or under this Act if the information is laid (or the charge is issued)—
(a)before the end of the period of 3 years beginning with the date of the commission of the offence, and
(b)before the end of the period of 6 months beginning with the date on which evidence which the prosecutor thinks is sufficient to justify the proceedings comes to the prosecutor's knowledge.
(2)For the purposes of subsection (1)(b)—
(a)a certificate signed by or on behalf of the prosecutor and stating the date on which such evidence came to the prosecutor's knowledge is conclusive evidence of that fact, and
(b)a certificate stating that matter and purporting to be so signed is to be treated as so signed unless the contrary is proved.
So to bring a prosecution in the event of not paying a fixed penalty the prosecutor has to certify that he did not know of the information that would be the basis of the charge more than 6 months before the charge is issued.
But if police were present at the party of 20th May 2020 how can they certify that? The 6 month time limit usually arises in the context of motoring offences where the police have either stopped someone or they have been caught on camera. That is because the police know at the time that the offence has been committed (because they were there) or when the camera took the picture.
If the evidence indicates that, for security reasons, the police were aware of the comings and goings add, for example, the consumption of alcohol in the garden, I think that is a problem.
If there cannot be a prosecution then there surely cannot be any basis for issuing a fixed penalty. A FP has to be based on a prosecutable offence.
1/4 of the population has had a positive test for Covid.
600,000 people give or take die every year normally in the UK.
28 days is 28/365ths of the year
1/4 * 600,000 * 28/365 = 11,500.
And as for tolerating loneliness, yes absolutely. I have discovered after decades of travel that if you travel alone you can actually have MORE interesting experiences, in general. Because you are forced to - you meet other people, you fall into conversation, you have adventures
It’s not an iron law. I’ve had truly wonderful experiences in a couple or a group, but many of the best have been solitary
The internet really helps of course. If i am feeling lonely - and that definitely happens, it is the price you pay - I can WhatsApp or email or whatever with friends and most of it disappears. Or i can come on here and argue myself stupid over gin.
Try it! And of course if you are alone you do EXACTLY what you want
(Now expecting to be told I've missed something obvious...)
Sometimes, the other cause will be the main cause of death so the person has died with Covid rather than of it but their position was that in at least 150k cases so far Covid had played a major part in the death.
Our country faces huge challenges and it’s offensive that the Government’s sole focus is on cleaning up after themselves.
Britain deserves better. The Prime Minister is unfit for office and must resign.
https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1487058595216863233
Worth noting of course that many covid deaths have happened after 28 days.
I did remark that the fact that 3 advocates had no idea what the law was as of yesterday and how it was changing today and which pub was actually right is the sort of thing that brings the law into disrepute. Its a farce.
I would have thought and on whether you can regard the whole of the Met as one entity deemed to know everything any part of it knows. Bear in mind ds cops are part of a specialist unit
Using death certificates is not conclusive either - not all the factors mentioned may have been causal, and its slower to get answers.
Even excess death is not rock solid - yes measuring against a 5 year average will smooth things out but it certainly doesn't guarantee accuracy.
So, like so much else, its complicated.
The other previous DPP, Lord Macdonald, was on WATO just a few minutes ago, calling the goings-on "disproportionate".
Genuine lol
Of course, openness and transparency is important in Britain, so such allegations should be ignored.
You just need the self reliance to be able to enjoy doing stuff because you’re doing it, without needing someone to tell that you’re doing it. Or use PB, of course, like Sean does.
Phones and social media have affected this though, as people stare into screens rather than interacting with others.
As an even rougher rule of thumb, you can say that the probability of anyone dying in a given year is about 1%, and in a given month about 0.1%. It's much smaller than the ratio of the death rate to positive tests before most people were vaccinated, and even before Omicron. But it's more comparable now.
Not one of my most challenging diagnoses, this one.
@Foxy ??
Ah yes. "An inverted pyramid of piffle." Which turned out to be a denial of something that was absolutely true.
We can't say we were not warned.
"If the immediate cause of death was Covid-19 or its consequences, and the patient had no specific pre-existing health conditions, but appears to have been especially vulnerable to Covid-19 or its effects because of old age or frailty, it is appropriate to state old age or frailty as contributing to the death."
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877302/guidance-for-doctors-completing-medical-certificates-of-cause-of-death-covid-19.pdf
It seems quite a lot of deaths of people who weren't suffering from "old age", or any other contributory conditions.
(My goodness politics is still depressing. Why won't the bugger go and we can all get on with things)
Just drop from orbit, next to a random beach....
Any argument in my view is between the following figures
Death cert @ 176,513
28 day deaths @ 155,040
Excess Deaths UK implied @ 134,670*
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9
(Excess deaths @ 113,527 (England - so divide by 0.843) to transpose to UK)
None of them are anywhere near the 17,000 bollocks spouted.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/asia/sri-lanka/galle/hotels/le-grand-hotel/
Note, PB, that I am giving you fucking excellent travel advice
As that review notes, the hotel is normally £500 a night in high season.
I am in a superior sea-and-fort-view room (so presumably more expensive) and I am paying £135 a night
Sri Lanka, right now, is just the most incredible bargain. If you want hot winter sun, this is the place to come
Because, you know, you’ve been here?
It’s quite a famous hotel designed by Sri Lankan architects. They have incorporated Sri Lankan art, pottery, stylings, sculptures, woods, even brickwork, throughout
I’ve seen some shocking hotels in my time. Some of the worst can be the 5 star jobs. Generic, oversized and sterile
This isn’t one of those
There is quite a lot of variation in what is listed as primary and underlying cause.
So someone dying of renal failure while on a ventilator might have covid as the underlying cause rather than the primary cause, or altenatively might be listed as dying of covid as the main cause. Tere is government guidance here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877302/guidance-for-doctors-completing-medical-certificates-of-cause-of-death-covid-19.pdf
Edit - this is from the actual hotel website... https://www.legrandgalle.lk/gallery.html#gallery-37
And this one... LOL
Seriously Sean, if it's so great then spend a little less time boasting to people on here about this or that and, worse, discussing UK politics and spend more time engaging with the local culture (by which I don't mean sleeping with their teenagers).
I've travelled the globe and may do so again when covid abates and I feel it'll be fun again. But I've never gone to far flung countries and felt the need to park myself on a UK forum.
Or maybe just be honest and tell people you're lonely out there. We'd be more sympathetic than when you go all alpha-male bombast.
Of course if you are purely looking to buy time, no matter the consequences down the road, you take the most damaging evidence and make a deliberately obvious and ham fisted attempt to suppress it, to ensure it becomes part of the police investigation.
Telegraph expert rating
“A luxury seafront boutique hotel in Galle with a personal feel, contemporary styling, excellent food and luxuriously appointed rooms facing the Indian Ocean or the town’s 17th-century Dutch fort.”
Several years ago I was in Crete - beautiful - but I was dismayed by the number of estate agents offering coastal sites for sale. They were all English-language promotions so clearly going after Brits seeking the good life. It was pretty clear that the remaining undeveloped coastline was likely to be wrecked before long.
Fortunately the Cretan interior is pretty dramatic and for most of the holiday that's where we headed. White Mountains etc. Just such a shame about the fate of the coast.
Either that or someone will hopefully leak the bloody thing.
What I would agree and I think is beyond doubt is that Omicron means the proportion dying with rather than of Covid is increasing, especially for the fully vaccinated.
It is also beyond doubt whatever the actual figure is it is not 17k or anything like it.
Most of the great ones haven't been concrete blocks but more akin to luxury villas with privacy and views. But, then, I'm a nature lover and like to get away.
One of the best experiences was a little tree house on the Gulf of Thailand. No one around and just the waves rolling onto the beach day and night. Cost a few dollars and was far better than the most luxurious I've stayed in costing hundreds a night.
Let's all just ignore the things that irritate us, i assume that's what people do with most of my posts.
Every touristic country has them now.
*The children like them.
Not many people who died did not have other conditions. But having - say - asthma is not a death sentence by itself.
You can ask how long the individual would have lived had they not caught covid. It's impossible to answer of course - would they have caught flu if not covid? - would they have been hit by the proverbial bus the next day? - but you can ask it. But even if you can estimate an answer, there is a question of where you draw the line. My next door neighbour, for example, died of covid last August, I think - but he also had an unusual variant of Parkinson's disease, which 18 months previously had given him 12 months to live. He was already on borrowed time. It would have been a major surprise had he made it through another winter. So do you include him in the 'killed by covid' figures? I would argue probably not.
But I am sure there are countless examples of those with co-morbidities where covid finished them off but who might have reasonably expected another 5, 10 years. It's hard to say in those cases that they would have died anyway.
Where do you draw the line? Another 6 months? Another 2 years? 5?
As always, I'd say the key figure of interest in excess deaths.
It is the bellwether seat. For now anyway. I suspect that will change with the next non-Tory government, however.
I agree with travelling alone - best holiday I had in recent times was in Mexico. I visted historical sites in the day and did things at night that SeanT would be proud of.
But I'd say that is of interest too.
https://www.monnalisa.it/en/home-page
The front part of the Hotel was genuinely old. At the back was a horrid block of modern stuff. I had a room in the old part. Lots of lovely old wood, elegant ceilings etc. Probably all trashed now.
The barman could build a good Stinger, and the coffee was excellent.
There was a mad restaurant down the road, where a local genius created incredible food. What you ordered and what you got was barely related.... but no-one cared.
Walk a bit further and you could see the dome of the Cathedral, down the via D'Oriuolo (I think)
The actuarial estimate is that the average covid death lost 10 years of life.
This doesn't really seem to be one of them; enjoy your stay.
That being so, I wonder if there are any geographies - wards or, given that wards change as well, parts of wards - that have tracked for longer.
I'm sure there are a decent number of geographies that have been blue forever or red since the first Labour government in terms of MPs, but I wonder how many places have been red/blue at all levels, I.e. councils and MPs, forever? I mean even Liverpool was LD run at one stage.
Tough one to find out at that granularity, but something I have wondered about at times.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/excess-mortality-in-england-weekly-reports