If seems noticeable how Sky and BBC are spending less time on this furore this morning
They are reporting on it but not the same obsessing about it
I am very disappointed that the report was not released before the Met got involved
You seemed positively giddy about it up till this post. Not quite to HYUFD levels, but above Sandpit on the Borisometer.
"Politics eh"
Whatever happened to Squareroot2? That bloke used to wank himself off over Johnson until his cock looked like a red jelly baby.
It's been quite a fall from grace when HYUFD, Sandpit and Big G are the only three Johnson defenders remaining unbowed. At the going down of the polls we will remember the fallen.
I do not defend Boris
You clearly have not read my posts over the last 3 months as I promote Rishi who I want as PM asap
I wonder whether we'll see her on her feet in Parliament next week. As an ex-PM, and an MP for a safe seat she's untouchable. And I don't think she owes Boris anything. She gave him a chance and as far as she is concerned, he blew it.
A colleague just suggested that May would be a good choice to replace Johnson. If that happened I might actually die laughing.
Paxlovid deployed in the UK from 10th February. Will be given to highest-risk groups including 'people who are immunocompromised, cancer patients or those with Down’s Syndrome', DHSC says. Will be delivered to homes of people who test +ve for covid or collected from NHS unit.
That is major news, and fantastic news. I wonder how much publicity it will get?
It's the actual end of the pandemic in the UK. The personal risk factors are non-existent once this is rolled out in a couple of weeks. People who can be vaccinated have that option and 91% of eligible people have done so, Omicron is less able to hospitalise us and now for those people who are unable to get vaccines or have additional risk factors we have two anti-virals that work pretty well. The UK is very well placed to be the first major country to exit the pandemic and live with the virus. It's going to be time to end mandatory isolation on positive tests soon and allow people to use their own judgement on how sick they are. As it should be.
I think I'd stop mass-testing altogether now. Keep the ONS survey going. Test admissions to hospital, and possibly hospital staff.
I don't see what is gained by mass-testing. Given the incidence rates we're clearly not motivated to make an effort to suppress transmission. So mass-testing is a waste of time and money.
That's a fair point, actually. Our strategy is de facto now to allow transmission and accept it as a fact of life. Hence, why mass-test? There's not much point finding out what we already know and accept I suppose.
Too early and too many vulnerable folk to stop mass testing. There is real value in being able to LFT to protect other people around oneself (whatever the Typhoid Mary enthusiasts might assert).
Well I'll ignore the hyperbolic language (which is uncharacteristic of you).
I'm undecided, but what is the rationale for mass-testing when we are not trying to restrict transmission?
Fair enough; perhaps not so much mass testing as the ability to test oneself in certain situations if one is worried about having covid (for one's onw sake, or for relatives/contacts). Which means keeping the LFTs available.
Ian Dunt @IanDunt · 1h They'd have failed to intervene to stop an illegal gathering, failed to launch an investigation when news of it emerged, forced the civil service to conduct an inquiry due to their reticence & then undermined the release of its findings by belatedly initiating their own.
Or more realistically, succeeded in protecting the people who appointed them and kept them in position after other repeated failures.
Time for Keir Starmer, Sadiq Khan and Yvette Cooper to make clear their complete lack of confidence in Cressida Dick, call for her resignation and to make it clear that she'd be out of the door the moment they're in a position to make it happen.
Paxlovid deployed in the UK from 10th February. Will be given to highest-risk groups including 'people who are immunocompromised, cancer patients or those with Down’s Syndrome', DHSC says. Will be delivered to homes of people who test +ve for covid or collected from NHS unit.
That is major news, and fantastic news. I wonder how much publicity it will get?
It's the actual end of the pandemic in the UK. The personal risk factors are non-existent once this is rolled out in a couple of weeks. People who can be vaccinated have that option and 91% of eligible people have done so, Omicron is less able to hospitalise us and now for those people who are unable to get vaccines or have additional risk factors we have two anti-virals that work pretty well. The UK is very well placed to be the first major country to exit the pandemic and live with the virus. It's going to be time to end mandatory isolation on positive tests soon and allow people to use their own judgement on how sick they are. As it should be.
I think I'd stop mass-testing altogether now. Keep the ONS survey going. Test admissions to hospital, and possibly hospital staff.
I don't see what is gained by mass-testing. Given the incidence rates we're clearly not motivated to make an effort to suppress transmission. So mass-testing is a waste of time and money.
That's a fair point, actually. Our strategy is de facto now to allow transmission and accept it as a fact of life. Hence, why mass-test? There's not much point finding out what we already know and accept I suppose.
Too early and too many vulnerable folk to stop mass testing. There is real value in being able to LFT to protect other people around oneself (whatever the Typhoid Mary enthusiasts might assert).
I've always been a bit sceptical that what amounts to a risk segmentation approach can be successful. This is why, pre-vaccines, I was of the view that we had to aim towards zero-Covid.
You say "too early", but it's not clear to me what threshold that hasn't been passed already, could be passed in the future to bring an end to mass-testing, if it is still necessary now. What do you have in mind?
More making sure that people could still test easily if concerned with reason. For instance if they have vulnerable relatives.
Which is hugely ironic because it was a CFTC (Chicago-based commodities regulator) investigation into LIBOR rigging by banks in the U.K. which triggered the whole LIBOR investigation in the first place.
Hasn't there been some suggestion that the UK banks were being encouraged by the BoE?
Biggest fish getting through the nets?
How I recall it is that the BoE manipulated LIBOR to the low side in the aftermath of the Crash. But their motive was a public interest one as opposed to the traders at banks who were doing it to boost their profits.
So if it is in the public interest to break into a house.....?
It can be, yes. But I wasn't particularly defending them, just making the distinction in motive between them and (eg) Tom Hayes.
Paxlovid deployed in the UK from 10th February. Will be given to highest-risk groups including 'people who are immunocompromised, cancer patients or those with Down’s Syndrome', DHSC says. Will be delivered to homes of people who test +ve for covid or collected from NHS unit.
That is major news, and fantastic news. I wonder how much publicity it will get?
It's the actual end of the pandemic in the UK. The personal risk factors are non-existent once this is rolled out in a couple of weeks. People who can be vaccinated have that option and 91% of eligible people have done so, Omicron is less able to hospitalise us and now for those people who are unable to get vaccines or have additional risk factors we have two anti-virals that work pretty well. The UK is very well placed to be the first major country to exit the pandemic and live with the virus. It's going to be time to end mandatory isolation on positive tests soon and allow people to use their own judgement on how sick they are. As it should be.
I think I'd stop mass-testing altogether now. Keep the ONS survey going. Test admissions to hospital, and possibly hospital staff.
I don't see what is gained by mass-testing. Given the incidence rates we're clearly not motivated to make an effort to suppress transmission. So mass-testing is a waste of time and money.
That's a fair point, actually. Our strategy is de facto now to allow transmission and accept it as a fact of life. Hence, why mass-test? There's not much point finding out what we already know and accept I suppose.
Too early and too many vulnerable folk to stop mass testing. There is real value in being able to LFT to protect other people around oneself (whatever the Typhoid Mary enthusiasts might assert).
Its not clear that all the testing is achieving anything though. It seems impossible to realistically suppress omicron (and maybe even worse for BA2). Far better to vaccinate, use antivirals and I'm afraid to say, if someone is vulnerable, the onus is on them to take sensible precautions. That's not me being callous, its about being practical. in the face of the prevalence of such a transmissible virus.
Those precautions do include having contacts who are willing but also able to get hands on LFTs - not mass testing though, I agree, so my wording was not good.
If seems noticeable how Sky and BBC are spending less time on this furore this morning
They are reporting on it but not the same obsessing about it
I am very disappointed that the report was not released before the Met got involved
You seemed positively giddy about it up till this post. Not quite to HYUFD levels, but above Sandpit on the Borisometer.
"Politics eh"
I am not the least bit giddy, but I do comment as I see things and while I want Rishi as PM, I do not want Starmer so that may help to understand where I am coming from
Starmer won't be PM any time soon, it's either Boris or A N Other Tory. So your whataboutery regarding Starmer is a bit odd.
Starmer could well be PM and Rishi is the best hope to prevent it
I wonder whether we'll see her on her feet in Parliament next week. As an ex-PM, and an MP for a safe seat she's untouchable. And I don't think she owes Boris anything. She gave him a chance and as far as she is concerned, he blew it.
I agree. The only thing is she will know it will look like sour grapes. She will need something more though than we have at present. I think if she, David Cameron and John Major all called for his resignation it would be pretty powerful. They will only do this if it becomes obvious that some serious wrong doing has taken place that is a bit more than singing happy birthday
All this obsessing over Gray is the mother of all distractions. Conservative MPs should have booted Boris into the sea weeks ago. Unbelievable and unforgivable cowardice from the party.
"There is a choice that has to be made by every supporter of the current governing party of the United Kingdom.
In essence the choice is: what price partisanship?
By ‘price’ is meant: what will need to be exchanged for maintaining support for the current Prime Minister?
The price currently on offer is the integrity of the constitution."
The other price is the right to be taken seriously at a future time when they complain about similar behaviour from others. The Conservatives are not only spaffing their legitimacy to govern, they are spaffing their legitimacy to be the Opposition. Why would you listen to any of these people about anything ever again?
For instance, if they don't care about maintaining the constitution, what about, say, Welsh independence? Or abolishing the Royal Family? HoL? FPTP? The 'established' nature of the C of E? Telling PC that "The constitution says you can't have a vote for independence" takes on a new meaning in the context of current matters.
My guess is a copy will be leaked to the press in time for the Sunday papers.
But they won't be able to publish it, legal issues.
Not so. It isn't sub judice unless they've charged someone by then
I just cannot believe how disgusting this is
And yet the opposition lead by Labour were demanding a police investigation and maybe they had not thought through the consequences
I have no idea how Starmer, especially with his lawyer hat on, deals with this
"As a former head of public prosecutions I am on the side of those seeking to bring bad guys to justice. If the Met have grounds for suspecting serious criminal activity in 10 Downing Street, I support that activity being fully investigated even if means a delay in Sue Gray's report."
Did he really call it "serious criminal activity"?
Starmer hasn't said this, but he could take this approach - in response to @Big_G_NorthWales' remark about Starmer being caught in a situation difficult to get out of. Basically imply that if the Met is blocking Sue Gray's report, it's because the situation is much more serious than we know about.
Or rather, unless they are investigating serious criminal activity, then this is a coverup.
The question is why the sudden change of mind? For two days the Met were briefing that there was no need to hold back Gray's report and then suddenly at 10am today complete volte face.
Someone put a call in to PC Dick?
My instinct is that there is something more serious. If Sue Gray suspects people have been wiping evidence then this could get much more serious. If she is, as many of us suspect, is from one of the security services then she has a pretty good chance of uncovering such behaviour. One of the fundamental problems with having a PM that thinks the rules are there to be bent is the risk that one day he tries to bend them too far. It might be getting too hyperbolic to suggest a Watergate type scandal, but it is perfectly possible that such a thing could happen here, and probably rather more likely while we have a serial liar in the most senior position in the land
On reflection I am pleased that I chose to spend my career doing things that actually make a difference in the real world, and not writing reports like this one.
Regarding Covid: I am very sure that we are not at the end of the pandemic. The end of the pandemic has been claimed many times before. The reality is that we just don't know what the virus will do next.
However it is also quite easy to see that the current system of managing the pandemic is inappropriate and disproportionate to the actual threat posed by the virus. The problems being faced by society and in the economy are predominantly caused by the public health rules initiated as a consequence of the virus, and not the virus itself.
The sheer scale of the project of managing the pandemic, and the time it has been going on, has created a problem of producer interest. There are a vast amount of jobs and investments that rely on the continued management of the pandemic as at present.
The challenge is to wind down the system, whilst keeping the essential infrastructure and systems in place, so they can be quickly wound back up when needed. Thats not an easy task.
Why should we not be at the end of the pandemic? Pandemics do end. Spanish flu ended. Hong Kong flu ended. Even bubonic plague ended. Even AIDS “ended” tho it took ages and needed better treatments
Unless this virus was so brilliantly engineered in the lab that it is superior to all other pathogens and can keep evolving to defeat us, covid will end
Incidentally, on that note of lab leak, there are some non-idiots on Twitter asking about the origin of Omicron. It’s lineage is odd, apparently
Various theories abound. One is that it came from an animal reservoir, hence its apparently mysterious mutations. Another is that it was engineered - again - in a lab, and deliberately released to end delta and be milder. So a GOOD “lab leak”
Paxlovid deployed in the UK from 10th February. Will be given to highest-risk groups including 'people who are immunocompromised, cancer patients or those with Down’s Syndrome', DHSC says. Will be delivered to homes of people who test +ve for covid or collected from NHS unit.
That is major news, and fantastic news. I wonder how much publicity it will get?
It's the actual end of the pandemic in the UK. The personal risk factors are non-existent once this is rolled out in a couple of weeks. People who can be vaccinated have that option and 91% of eligible people have done so, Omicron is less able to hospitalise us and now for those people who are unable to get vaccines or have additional risk factors we have two anti-virals that work pretty well. The UK is very well placed to be the first major country to exit the pandemic and live with the virus. It's going to be time to end mandatory isolation on positive tests soon and allow people to use their own judgement on how sick they are. As it should be.
I think I'd stop mass-testing altogether now. Keep the ONS survey going. Test admissions to hospital, and possibly hospital staff.
I don't see what is gained by mass-testing. Given the incidence rates we're clearly not motivated to make an effort to suppress transmission. So mass-testing is a waste of time and money.
That's a fair point, actually. Our strategy is de facto now to allow transmission and accept it as a fact of life. Hence, why mass-test? There's not much point finding out what we already know and accept I suppose.
Too early and too many vulnerable folk to stop mass testing. There is real value in being able to LFT to protect other people around oneself (whatever the Typhoid Mary enthusiasts might assert).
Well I'll ignore the hyperbolic language (which is uncharacteristic of you).
I'm undecided, but what is the rationale for mass-testing when we are not trying to restrict transmission?
Fair enough; perhaps not so much mass testing as the ability to test oneself in certain situations if one is worried about having covid (for one's onw sake, or for relatives/contacts). Which means keeping the LFTs available.
I wonder whether we'll see her on her feet in Parliament next week. As an ex-PM, and an MP for a safe seat she's untouchable. And I don't think she owes Boris anything. She gave him a chance and as far as she is concerned, he blew it.
A colleague just suggested that May would be a good choice to replace Johnson. If that happened I might actually die laughing.
I even suggested that to my mp as a stop gap pending a succession campaign to Boris, but the answer was 'unlikely'
Ian Dunt @IanDunt · 1h They'd have failed to intervene to stop an illegal gathering, failed to launch an investigation when news of it emerged, forced the civil service to conduct an inquiry due to their reticence & then undermined the release of its findings by belatedly initiating their own.
Or more realistically, succeeded in protecting the people who appointed them and kept them in position after other repeated failures.
Time for Keir Starmer, Sadiq Khan and Yvette Cooper to make clear their complete lack of confidence in Cressida Dick, call for her resignation and to make it clear that she'd be out of the door the moment they're in a position to make it happen.
Ian Dunt @IanDunt · 1h They'd have failed to intervene to stop an illegal gathering, failed to launch an investigation when news of it emerged, forced the civil service to conduct an inquiry due to their reticence & then undermined the release of its findings by belatedly initiating their own.
Or more realistically, succeeded in protecting the people who appointed them and kept them in position after other repeated failures.
Time for Keir Starmer, Sadiq Khan and Yvette Cooper to make clear their complete lack of confidence in Cressida Dick, call for her resignation and to make it clear that she'd be out of the door the moment they're in a position to make it happen.
To start a war with the police before you get into government would be stupid.
The way to do it is to wait until you are in government. Then arrange a meeting with all the Chief Constables etc*.
Then hand their their dismissal notices on the spot.
If seems noticeable how Sky and BBC are spending less time on this furore this morning
They are reporting on it but not the same obsessing about it
I am very disappointed that the report was not released before the Met got involved
You seemed positively giddy about it up till this post. Not quite to HYUFD levels, but above Sandpit on the Borisometer.
"Politics eh"
Whatever happened to Squareroot2? That bloke used to wank himself off over Johnson until his cock looked like a red jelly baby.
It's been quite a fall from grace when HYUFD, Sandpit and Big G are the only three Johnson defenders remaining unbowed. At the going down of the polls we will remember the fallen.
I do not defend Boris
You clearly have not read my posts over the last 3 months as I promote Rishi who I want as PM asap
I guess the big question is, if Boris clings on and there's a general election, whom will you vote for? Boris is relying on people like you voting for him anyway. And you will, won't you?
I would just prefer to be spared months of theatrical and largely illusory soul searching beforehand.
If seems noticeable how Sky and BBC are spending less time on this furore this morning
They are reporting on it but not the same obsessing about it
I am very disappointed that the report was not released before the Met got involved
You seemed positively giddy about it up till this post. Not quite to HYUFD levels, but above Sandpit on the Borisometer.
"Politics eh"
Whatever happened to Squareroot2? That bloke used to wank himself off over Johnson until his cock looked like a red jelly baby.
It's been quite a fall from grace when HYUFD, Sandpit and Big G are the only three Johnson defenders remaining unbowed. At the going down of the polls we will remember the fallen.
I do not defend Boris
You clearly have not read my posts over the last 3 months as I promote Rishi who I want as PM asap
I guess the big question is, if Boris clings on and there's a general election, whom will you vote for? Boris is relying on people like you voting for him anyway. And you will, won't you?
The birthday gathering with cake was an article in The Times and no one even noticed.
LOL. No-one cared at the time, because there was really nothing to care about. It’s only a story now, because of Cummings being vindictive and the Lobby trying to find a story. So we have this rubbish leading the news for a week, and the Leader of the Opposition calling for the PM to resign because his wife bought a cake to the office on his birthday.
You really are living up to the second part of your name this morning Mr Sandpit.
It really matters because most of this country went through hell during the lockdowns. We weren't able to visit loved ones. We weren't able to have birthday parties. In some cases we even had to endure loved ones dying alone.
Do you really not understand why this matters so much to us all or are you just trying the hardest to be the nastiest person on the forum?
I understand why people are angry, I’m saying that the anger specifically about the government is misplaced, and that events are being re-cast with the benefit of hindsight and a lack of knowledge as to what were actually the regulations at various times.
Talking of Times, the newspaper of record mentioned that the PM received a birthday cake, the day after it happened. Why didn’t everyone jump up and down about it at the time? Because at the time there was actually nothing wrong with it.
Regarding Covid: I am very sure that we are not at the end of the pandemic. The end of the pandemic has been claimed many times before. The reality is that we just don't know what the virus will do next.
However it is also quite easy to see that the current system of managing the pandemic is inappropriate and disproportionate to the actual threat posed by the virus. The problems being faced by society and in the economy are predominantly caused by the public health rules initiated as a consequence of the virus, and not the virus itself.
The sheer scale of the project of managing the pandemic, and the time it has been going on, has created a problem of producer interest. There are a vast amount of jobs and investments that rely on the continued management of the pandemic as at present.
The challenge is to wind down the system, whilst keeping the essential infrastructure and systems in place, so they can be quickly wound back up when needed. Thats not an easy task.
Why should we not be at the end of the pandemic? Pandemics do end. Spanish flu ended. Hong Kong flu ended. Even bubonic plague ended. Even AIDS “ended” tho it took ages and needed better treatments
Unless this virus was so brilliantly engineered in the lab that it is superior to all other pathogens and can keep evolving to defeat us, covid will end
Incidentally, on that note of lab leak, there are some non-idiots on Twitter asking about the origin of Omicron. It’s lineage is odd, apparently
Various theories abound. One is that it came from an animal reservoir, hence its apparently mysterious mutations. Another is that it was engineered - again - in a lab, and deliberately released to end delta and be milder. So a GOOD “lab leak”
Who knows.
The last idea is funny, but surely a conspiracy theory too far?
Perhaps a rogue, but good intentioned old South African scientist working for Dr Angelique Coetzee (pbuh) cooked it up in his garden shed in Pretoria, then had a few healthy young people over for cheese and 'wine'??
If seems noticeable how Sky and BBC are spending less time on this furore this morning
They are reporting on it but not the same obsessing about it
I am very disappointed that the report was not released before the Met got involved
You seemed positively giddy about it up till this post. Not quite to HYUFD levels, but above Sandpit on the Borisometer.
"Politics eh"
Whatever happened to Squareroot2? That bloke used to wank himself off over Johnson until his cock looked like a red jelly baby.
It's been quite a fall from grace when HYUFD, Sandpit and Big G are the only three Johnson defenders remaining unbowed. At the going down of the polls we will remember the fallen.
I do not defend Boris
You clearly have not read my posts over the last 3 months as I promote Rishi who I want as PM asap
I guess the big question is, if Boris clings on and there's a general election, whom will you vote for? Boris is relying on people like you voting for him anyway. And you will, won't you?
My position is abstain or vote lib dem
This triggers both admiration and scepticism in me.
I should say I do not expect it to arise as I do not see Boris leading into the next GE
Either the Met is seeking to unduly influence the cabinet office investigation to protect political patrons.
Or since the start of the week, it has become clear that the Met investigation is leading in a direction that is more serious than just fixed penalty notices, perhaps obstruction of justice.
I actually start to lean towards option 2, because it would be brazen and foolish on the part of the Met to think that option 1 could succeed for long and the upside for them personally doesn’t seem worth the risk.
If seems noticeable how Sky and BBC are spending less time on this furore this morning
They are reporting on it but not the same obsessing about it
I am very disappointed that the report was not released before the Met got involved
You seemed positively giddy about it up till this post. Not quite to HYUFD levels, but above Sandpit on the Borisometer.
"Politics eh"
Whatever happened to Squareroot2? That bloke used to wank himself off over Johnson until his cock looked like a red jelly baby.
It's been quite a fall from grace when HYUFD, Sandpit and Big G are the only three Johnson defenders remaining unbowed. At the going down of the polls we will remember the fallen.
I do not defend Boris
You clearly have not read my posts over the last 3 months as I promote Rishi who I want as PM asap
I guess the big question is, if Boris clings on and there's a general election, whom will you vote for? Boris is relying on people like you voting for him anyway. And you will, won't you?
My position is abstain or vote lib dem
This triggers both admiration and scepticism in me.
I don't think it should trigger scepticism. It is largely consistent with Big G's position. I think he is a bit of a late arrival to the "Right of Centre Boris is Shit Club", but he seems sincere.
Ian Dunt @IanDunt · 1h They'd have failed to intervene to stop an illegal gathering, failed to launch an investigation when news of it emerged, forced the civil service to conduct an inquiry due to their reticence & then undermined the release of its findings by belatedly initiating their own.
Or more realistically, succeeded in protecting the people who appointed them and kept them in position after other repeated failures.
Time for Keir Starmer, Sadiq Khan and Yvette Cooper to make clear their complete lack of confidence in Cressida Dick, call for her resignation and to make it clear that she'd be out of the door the moment they're in a position to make it happen.
Starmer has just endorsed her on Sky
Does make one wonder whether Dick is actually some kind of Machiavellian mastermind, too busy weaving webs of intrigue and building dossiers on her political and potential masters to be used to cow them into submission to actually focus on the supposed day job.
Regarding Covid: I am very sure that we are not at the end of the pandemic. The end of the pandemic has been claimed many times before. The reality is that we just don't know what the virus will do next.
However it is also quite easy to see that the current system of managing the pandemic is inappropriate and disproportionate to the actual threat posed by the virus. The problems being faced by society and in the economy are predominantly caused by the public health rules initiated as a consequence of the virus, and not the virus itself.
The sheer scale of the project of managing the pandemic, and the time it has been going on, has created a problem of producer interest. There are a vast amount of jobs and investments that rely on the continued management of the pandemic as at present.
The challenge is to wind down the system, whilst keeping the essential infrastructure and systems in place, so they can be quickly wound back up when needed. Thats not an easy task.
Why should we not be at the end of the pandemic? Pandemics do end. Spanish flu ended. Hong Kong flu ended. Even bubonic plague ended. Even AIDS “ended” tho it took ages and needed better treatments
Unless this virus was so brilliantly engineered in the lab that it is superior to all other pathogens and can keep evolving to defeat us, covid will end
Incidentally, on that note of lab leak, there are some non-idiots on Twitter asking about the origin of Omicron. It’s lineage is odd, apparently
Various theories abound. One is that it came from an animal reservoir, hence its apparently mysterious mutations. Another is that it was engineered - again - in a lab, and deliberately released to end delta and be milder. So a GOOD “lab leak”
Who knows.
Well, you cant say it has ended except in retrospect, IE after it has definetly ended. The end has been declared many times on PB, but Omicron proved otherwise. I'm in favour of removing all the restrictions, but not claiming the end of Covid. It has to be managed and we also have to accept that measures to control it (including testing, contact tracing, vaccination, self isolation, right up to lockdowns) may need to come back, so we should definetely not dispense with the structures that we have.
Regarding Covid: I am very sure that we are not at the end of the pandemic. The end of the pandemic has been claimed many times before. The reality is that we just don't know what the virus will do next.
However it is also quite easy to see that the current system of managing the pandemic is inappropriate and disproportionate to the actual threat posed by the virus. The problems being faced by society and in the economy are predominantly caused by the public health rules initiated as a consequence of the virus, and not the virus itself.
The sheer scale of the project of managing the pandemic, and the time it has been going on, has created a problem of producer interest. There are a vast amount of jobs and investments that rely on the continued management of the pandemic as at present.
The challenge is to wind down the system, whilst keeping the essential infrastructure and systems in place, so they can be quickly wound back up when needed. Thats not an easy task.
Why should we not be at the end of the pandemic? Pandemics do end. Spanish flu ended. Hong Kong flu ended. Even bubonic plague ended. Even AIDS “ended” tho it took ages and needed better treatments
Unless this virus was so brilliantly engineered in the lab that it is superior to all other pathogens and can keep evolving to defeat us, covid will end
Incidentally, on that note of lab leak, there are some non-idiots on Twitter asking about the origin of Omicron. It’s lineage is odd, apparently
Various theories abound. One is that it came from an animal reservoir, hence its apparently mysterious mutations. Another is that it was engineered - again - in a lab, and deliberately released to end delta and be milder. So a GOOD “lab leak”
Who knows.
Well, you cant say it has ended except in retrospect, IE after it has definetly ended. The end has been declared many times on PB, but Omicron proved otherwise. I'm in favour of removing all the restrictions, but not claiming the end of Covid. It has to be managed and we also have to accept that measures to control it (including testing, contact tracing, vaccination, self isolation, right up to lockdowns) may need to come back, so we should definetely not dispense with the structures that we have.
I don’t think anyone is claiming the end of covid. That might never happen. But covid as a legitimate public health emergency does look to have ended in the UK roughly a year ago.
This is why Boris Johnson should resign/be forced out.
First official estimate puts French growth in 2021 at 7% - the highest annual figure for half a century! And ahead of the previous forecast of 6.7 or 6.8%. If confirmed this would make France the fastest growing G7 country last year
The UK data, when they are published, will probably show UK GDP growth in 2021 as slightly higher than that - around 7.3% I would expect - although UK GDP fell more than French GDP in 2020 (-9.4% vs - 8.0%). Both the decline and recovery in the UK are likely over-stated by the way the data are calculated. The big picture, as is often the case, is that differences between the two countries are much exaggerated, but France is probably marginally ahead taking 2020 and 2021 together, and that is probably down to Brexit.
That's a fair summary, I took the IMF projections forwards and it looks like at the end of 2023 the UK will have lost around 2.8% in growth potential and France around 2.6% in lost growth potential. Both countries have had almost identical pandemic responses, poor early decision making and Macron is very much in the "keep everything open" camp despite huge infection numbers like Boris.
The most interesting of them all is Germany which didn't have as big a fall as the UK or France but also having little to no bounceback and it seems as though they are already heading to trend growth so their lost potential could be significantly higher than both France or the UK. The other one I've seen that's gone a bit unnoticed is that the city consensus has downgraded all three countries' trend growth rate post pandemic which is probably a much, much bigger concern for governments than what this year's bounce back looks like. That will change long term tax growth expectations meaning structurally lower spending or higher taxes will be required.
That's roughly how I read. Though I think you may be underplaying German underperformance during 2021. Their investment figures suffered badly.
Despite the interminable blathering about Brexit, we are all more or less in lockstep at this time.
One other factor not often mentioned is different timings of the Omicron wave.
Even the most pessimistic of post-Brexit forecasts had UK and EU growth differing by levels which pale to insignifance in comparison with the impact of covid. Brexit may well have a negative impact on UK growth (though my own view is, in the medium term, not). But any impact will be dwarfed by the impact of covid.
I'm not convinced of that. Forecasts have been a Brexit cost to the UK economy of 1%-10%, and 3-4% in GDP, summarised here:
Surveys of economists in 2016 showed overwhelming agreement that Brexit would likely reduce the UK's real per-capita income level. 2019 and 2017 surveys of existing academic research found that the credible estimates ranged between GDP losses of 1.2–4.5% for the UK and a cost of between 1%–10% of the UK's income per capita. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit#Long-term_impact_on_the_UK_economy
In reality UK 2021 growth is down as 6.9%, and France now at 7% according to latest figures. Virtually no difference.
That really does not drown out the Brexit forecasts that we were peddled, never mind such as the collapsing house prices and soaring unemployment.
I'd say that current evidence suggests that such forecasts from various remain campaign groups were a tissue of bollocks.
Regarding Covid: I am very sure that we are not at the end of the pandemic. The end of the pandemic has been claimed many times before. The reality is that we just don't know what the virus will do next.
However it is also quite easy to see that the current system of managing the pandemic is inappropriate and disproportionate to the actual threat posed by the virus. The problems being faced by society and in the economy are predominantly caused by the public health rules initiated as a consequence of the virus, and not the virus itself.
The sheer scale of the project of managing the pandemic, and the time it has been going on, has created a problem of producer interest. There are a vast amount of jobs and investments that rely on the continued management of the pandemic as at present.
The challenge is to wind down the system, whilst keeping the essential infrastructure and systems in place, so they can be quickly wound back up when needed. Thats not an easy task.
Why should we not be at the end of the pandemic? Pandemics do end. Spanish flu ended. Hong Kong flu ended. Even bubonic plague ended. Even AIDS “ended” tho it took ages and needed better treatments
Unless this virus was so brilliantly engineered in the lab that it is superior to all other pathogens and can keep evolving to defeat us, covid will end
Incidentally, on that note of lab leak, there are some non-idiots on Twitter asking about the origin of Omicron. It’s lineage is odd, apparently
Various theories abound. One is that it came from an animal reservoir, hence its apparently mysterious mutations. Another is that it was engineered - again - in a lab, and deliberately released to end delta and be milder. So a GOOD “lab leak”
Who knows.
The last idea is funny, but surely a conspiracy theory too far?
Perhaps a rogue, but good intentioned old South African scientist working for Dr Angelique Coetzee (pbuh) cooked it up in his garden shed in Pretoria, then had a few healthy young people over for cheese and 'wine'??
Lol. Leon has the advantage of zero knowledge in science to help him with his belief that such a thing is possible. Dan Brown could probably use that for a ripping yarn airport best seller. "The Omicron Code"
If seems noticeable how Sky and BBC are spending less time on this furore this morning
They are reporting on it but not the same obsessing about it
I am very disappointed that the report was not released before the Met got involved
You seemed positively giddy about it up till this post. Not quite to HYUFD levels, but above Sandpit on the Borisometer.
"Politics eh"
Whatever happened to Squareroot2? That bloke used to wank himself off over Johnson until his cock looked like a red jelly baby.
It's been quite a fall from grace when HYUFD, Sandpit and Big G are the only three Johnson defenders remaining unbowed. At the going down of the polls we will remember the fallen.
I do not defend Boris
You clearly have not read my posts over the last 3 months as I promote Rishi who I want as PM asap
I guess the big question is, if Boris clings on and there's a general election, whom will you vote for? Boris is relying on people like you voting for him anyway. And you will, won't you?
vote lib dem
I had no idea they were still on the go. It's like that faint feeling of surprise you get when you hear the Bay City Rollers are still touring.
Ian Dunt @IanDunt · 1h They'd have failed to intervene to stop an illegal gathering, failed to launch an investigation when news of it emerged, forced the civil service to conduct an inquiry due to their reticence & then undermined the release of its findings by belatedly initiating their own.
Or more realistically, succeeded in protecting the people who appointed them and kept them in position after other repeated failures.
Time for Keir Starmer, Sadiq Khan and Yvette Cooper to make clear their complete lack of confidence in Cressida Dick, call for her resignation and to make it clear that she'd be out of the door the moment they're in a position to make it happen.
Regarding Covid: I am very sure that we are not at the end of the pandemic. The end of the pandemic has been claimed many times before. The reality is that we just don't know what the virus will do next.
However it is also quite easy to see that the current system of managing the pandemic is inappropriate and disproportionate to the actual threat posed by the virus. The problems being faced by society and in the economy are predominantly caused by the public health rules initiated as a consequence of the virus, and not the virus itself.
The sheer scale of the project of managing the pandemic, and the time it has been going on, has created a problem of producer interest. There are a vast amount of jobs and investments that rely on the continued management of the pandemic as at present.
The challenge is to wind down the system, whilst keeping the essential infrastructure and systems in place, so they can be quickly wound back up when needed. Thats not an easy task.
Why should we not be at the end of the pandemic? Pandemics do end. Spanish flu ended. Hong Kong flu ended. Even bubonic plague ended. Even AIDS “ended” tho it took ages and needed better treatments
Unless this virus was so brilliantly engineered in the lab that it is superior to all other pathogens and can keep evolving to defeat us, covid will end
Incidentally, on that note of lab leak, there are some non-idiots on Twitter asking about the origin of Omicron. It’s lineage is odd, apparently
Various theories abound. One is that it came from an animal reservoir, hence its apparently mysterious mutations. Another is that it was engineered - again - in a lab, and deliberately released to end delta and be milder. So a GOOD “lab leak”
Who knows.
The last idea is funny, but surely a conspiracy theory too far?
Perhaps a rogue, but good intentioned old South African scientist working for Dr Angelique Coetzee (pbuh) cooked it up in his garden shed in Pretoria, then had a few healthy young people over for cheese and 'wine'??
It’s certainly a fascinating idea, even if it sounds far-fetched. And serious people were suggesting this at the height of Delta - “we need a new variant which is more transmissible but less serious - make it in a lab quick”
Prof Francois Balloux alludes to it here and in adjacent threads
“Option B feels highly implausible to me, but when Omicron emerged, where the lineage fits in the tree, and when BA.1 and BA.2 (and BA.3) split remains very murky.”
Ian Dunt @IanDunt · 1h They'd have failed to intervene to stop an illegal gathering, failed to launch an investigation when news of it emerged, forced the civil service to conduct an inquiry due to their reticence & then undermined the release of its findings by belatedly initiating their own.
Or more realistically, succeeded in protecting the people who appointed them and kept them in position after other repeated failures.
Time for Keir Starmer, Sadiq Khan and Yvette Cooper to make clear their complete lack of confidence in Cressida Dick, call for her resignation and to make it clear that she'd be out of the door the moment they're in a position to make it happen.
Either the Met is seeking to unduly influence the cabinet office investigation to protect political patrons.
Or since the start of the week, it has become clear that the Met investigation is leading in a direction that is more serious than just fixed penalty notices, perhaps obstruction of justice.
I actually start to lean towards option 2, because it would be brazen and foolish on the part of the Met to think that option 1 could succeed for long and the upside for them personally doesn’t seem worth the risk.
The selective withholding, then release, of criminal evidence in pursuit of a personal vendetta could possibly be construed as obstruction of justice?
If seems noticeable how Sky and BBC are spending less time on this furore this morning
They are reporting on it but not the same obsessing about it
I am very disappointed that the report was not released before the Met got involved
You seemed positively giddy about it up till this post. Not quite to HYUFD levels, but above Sandpit on the Borisometer.
"Politics eh"
Whatever happened to Squareroot2? That bloke used to wank himself off over Johnson until his cock looked like a red jelly baby.
It's been quite a fall from grace when HYUFD, Sandpit and Big G are the only three Johnson defenders remaining unbowed. At the going down of the polls we will remember the fallen.
I do not defend Boris
You clearly have not read my posts over the last 3 months as I promote Rishi who I want as PM asap
I guess the big question is, if Boris clings on and there's a general election, whom will you vote for? Boris is relying on people like you voting for him anyway. And you will, won't you?
My position is abstain or vote lib dem
This triggers both admiration and scepticism in me.
I should say I do not expect it to arise as I do not see Boris leading into the next GE
This is why Boris Johnson should resign/be forced out.
First official estimate puts French growth in 2021 at 7% - the highest annual figure for half a century! And ahead of the previous forecast of 6.7 or 6.8%. If confirmed this would make France the fastest growing G7 country last year
The UK data, when they are published, will probably show UK GDP growth in 2021 as slightly higher than that - around 7.3% I would expect - although UK GDP fell more than French GDP in 2020 (-9.4% vs - 8.0%). Both the decline and recovery in the UK are likely over-stated by the way the data are calculated. The big picture, as is often the case, is that differences between the two countries are much exaggerated, but France is probably marginally ahead taking 2020 and 2021 together, and that is probably down to Brexit.
That's a fair summary, I took the IMF projections forwards and it looks like at the end of 2023 the UK will have lost around 2.8% in growth potential and France around 2.6% in lost growth potential. Both countries have had almost identical pandemic responses, poor early decision making and Macron is very much in the "keep everything open" camp despite huge infection numbers like Boris.
The most interesting of them all is Germany which didn't have as big a fall as the UK or France but also having little to no bounceback and it seems as though they are already heading to trend growth so their lost potential could be significantly higher than both France or the UK. The other one I've seen that's gone a bit unnoticed is that the city consensus has downgraded all three countries' trend growth rate post pandemic which is probably a much, much bigger concern for governments than what this year's bounce back looks like. That will change long term tax growth expectations meaning structurally lower spending or higher taxes will be required.
That's roughly how I read. Though I think you may be underplaying German underperformance during 2021. Their investment figures suffered badly.
Despite the interminable blathering about Brexit, we are all more or less in lockstep at this time.
One other factor not often mentioned is different timings of the Omicron wave.
Even the most pessimistic of post-Brexit forecasts had UK and EU growth differing by levels which pale to insignifance in comparison with the impact of covid. Brexit may well have a negative impact on UK growth (though my own view is, in the medium term, not). But any impact will be dwarfed by the impact of covid.
I'm not convinced of that. Forecasts have been a Brexit cost to the UK economy of 1%-10%, and 3-4% in GDP, summarised here:
Surveys of economists in 2016 showed overwhelming agreement that Brexit would likely reduce the UK's real per-capita income level. 2019 and 2017 surveys of existing academic research found that the credible estimates ranged between GDP losses of 1.2–4.5% for the UK and a cost of between 1%–10% of the UK's income per capita. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit#Long-term_impact_on_the_UK_economy
In reality UK 2021 growth is down as 6.9%, and France now at 7% according to latest figures. Virtually no difference.
That really does not drown out the Brexit forecasts that we were peddled, never mind such as the collapsing house prices and soaring unemployment.
I'd say that current evidence suggests that such forecasts from various remain campaign groups were a tissue of bollocks.
What is a credible estimate?
I do them for a living and, imo, a long list of caveats indicates credibility, even if that undermines the confidence you can place on the figure.
Just had political pamphlets from MSP's , not a mention anywhere that they were Labour and Tory. What a bunch of no marks, Labour one was a Baroness , PMSL.
If seems noticeable how Sky and BBC are spending less time on this furore this morning
They are reporting on it but not the same obsessing about it
I am very disappointed that the report was not released before the Met got involved
You seemed positively giddy about it up till this post. Not quite to HYUFD levels, but above Sandpit on the Borisometer.
"Politics eh"
Whatever happened to Squareroot2? That bloke used to wank himself off over Johnson until his cock looked like a red jelly baby.
It's been quite a fall from grace when HYUFD, Sandpit and Big G are the only three Johnson defenders remaining unbowed. At the going down of the polls we will remember the fallen.
I do not defend Boris
You clearly have not read my posts over the last 3 months as I promote Rishi who I want as PM asap
I guess the big question is, if Boris clings on and there's a general election, whom will you vote for? Boris is relying on people like you voting for him anyway. And you will, won't you?
I would just prefer to be spared months of theatrical and largely illusory soul searching beforehand.
I believe the word is "performative"
Was it you who mentioned you had never heard the word performative before the pandemic?
It recently occurred to me that I know the first time I heard the word. And it was before the pandemic. It was by Joe Thomas, and was on series 8 of Taskmaster, which was in 2019 - so not long before.
I do agree that it is one of the words of the pandemic though.
The birthday gathering with cake was an article in The Times and no one even noticed.
LOL. No-one cared at the time, because there was really nothing to care about. It’s only a story now, because of Cummings being vindictive and the Lobby trying to find a story. So we have this rubbish leading the news for a week, and the Leader of the Opposition calling for the PM to resign because his wife bought a cake to the office on his birthday.
You really are living up to the second part of your name this morning Mr Sandpit.
It really matters because most of this country went through hell during the lockdowns. We weren't able to visit loved ones. We weren't able to have birthday parties. In some cases we even had to endure loved ones dying alone.
Do you really not understand why this matters so much to us all or are you just trying the hardest to be the nastiest person on the forum?
I understand why people are angry, I’m saying that the anger specifically about the government is misplaced, and that events are being re-cast with the benefit of hindsight and a lack of knowledge as to what were actually the regulations at various times.
Talking of Times, the newspaper of record mentioned that the PM received a birthday cake, the day after it happened. Why didn’t everyone jump up and down about it at the time? Because at the time there was actually nothing wrong with it.
Are you related to a certain Mr Icke
The Times at the time seems to have said
"Boris Johnson celebrated his 56th birthday yesterday with a small gathering in the cabinet room. Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, and a group of aides sang him Happy Birthday before they tucked into a Union Jack cake."
Which may or may not have been within the rules at the time.
"Up to 30 people attended, sang Happy Birthday and were served cake, according to ITV News. As well as Downing Street staff, the interior designer Lulu Lytle - who was not a member of No 10 staff - was present."
It's not exactly the same thing is it? At that time "small gathering" would have made me think 5 or 6 people. And Lulu Lytle can't be described as an "aide".
According to the same article, at the time
"Gatherings of more than two people inside were banned by law. An exception was allowed if the gathering "was reasonably necessary" for work purposes."
Not sure why Sandpit is so confident that there was nothing wrong with the birthday party. Sounds quite likely that it broke the law to me.
If seems noticeable how Sky and BBC are spending less time on this furore this morning
They are reporting on it but not the same obsessing about it
I am very disappointed that the report was not released before the Met got involved
You seemed positively giddy about it up till this post. Not quite to HYUFD levels, but above Sandpit on the Borisometer.
"Politics eh"
Whatever happened to Squareroot2? That bloke used to wank himself off over Johnson until his cock looked like a red jelly baby.
It's been quite a fall from grace when HYUFD, Sandpit and Big G are the only three Johnson defenders remaining unbowed. At the going down of the polls we will remember the fallen.
I do not defend Boris
You clearly have not read my posts over the last 3 months as I promote Rishi who I want as PM asap
I guess the big question is, if Boris clings on and there's a general election, whom will you vote for? Boris is relying on people like you voting for him anyway. And you will, won't you?
I would just prefer to be spared months of theatrical and largely illusory soul searching beforehand.
I believe the word is "performative"
Was it you who mentioned you had never heard the word performative before the pandemic?
It recently occurred to me that I know the first time I heard the word. And it was before the pandemic. It was by Joe Thomas, and was on series 8 of Taskmaster, which was in 2019 - so not long before.
I do agree that it is one of the words of the pandemic though.
I'm sure I saw it in Private Eye - which collected a whole series of examples, in the vein of their lists of usages of "Solutions"
11:46am Top civil servant says he gave incorrect evidence over animal airlift The Foreign Office's top mandarin has apologised for misleading MPs in the row over the evacuation of animals from Afghanistan.
Sir Philip Barton, the Foreign Office's permanent under-secretary, had told the Foreign Affairs Committee that Nigel Casey, the Prime Minister's special representative for Afghanistan, had not received any correspondence referring to any intervention by Boris Johnson in the evacuation from the country of animals from the Nowzad charity.
But in emails revealed by Newsnight, Mr Casey was seen to have asked an official "to seek clear guidance for us from No 10 asap on what they would like us to do" in the case.
Sir Philip has now written to the committee's chairman, Tory MP Tom Tugendhat, to apologise.
He said he had given "inadvertently inaccurate answers"
The birthday gathering with cake was an article in The Times and no one even noticed.
LOL. No-one cared at the time, because there was really nothing to care about. It’s only a story now, because of Cummings being vindictive and the Lobby trying to find a story. So we have this rubbish leading the news for a week, and the Leader of the Opposition calling for the PM to resign because his wife bought a cake to the office on his birthday.
You really are living up to the second part of your name this morning Mr Sandpit.
It really matters because most of this country went through hell during the lockdowns. We weren't able to visit loved ones. We weren't able to have birthday parties. In some cases we even had to endure loved ones dying alone.
Do you really not understand why this matters so much to us all or are you just trying the hardest to be the nastiest person on the forum?
I understand why people are angry, I’m saying that the anger specifically about the government is misplaced, and that events are being re-cast with the benefit of hindsight and a lack of knowledge as to what were actually the regulations at various times.
Talking of Times, the newspaper of record mentioned that the PM received a birthday cake, the day after it happened. Why didn’t everyone jump up and down about it at the time? Because at the time there was actually nothing wrong with it.
Are you related to a certain Mr Icke
The Times at the time seems to have said
"Boris Johnson celebrated his 56th birthday yesterday with a small gathering in the cabinet room. Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, and a group of aides sang him Happy Birthday before they tucked into a Union Jack cake."
Which may or may not have been within the rules at the time.
"Up to 30 people attended, sang Happy Birthday and were served cake, according to ITV News. As well as Downing Street staff, the interior designer Lulu Lytle - who was not a member of No 10 staff - was present."
It's not exactly the same thing is it? At that time "small gathering" would have made me think 5 or 6 people. And Lulu Lytle can't be described as an "aide".
According to the same article, at the time
"Gatherings of more than two people inside were banned by law. An exception was allowed if the gathering "was reasonably necessary" for work purposes."
Not sure why Sandpit is so confident that there was nothing wrong with the birthday party. Sounds quite likely that it broke the law to me.
He is a fanatical cult member and thinks every crime reported on the Tories is them taking us to the sunny uplands and Saint Boris can do no wrong..
Regarding Covid: I am very sure that we are not at the end of the pandemic. The end of the pandemic has been claimed many times before. The reality is that we just don't know what the virus will do next.
However it is also quite easy to see that the current system of managing the pandemic is inappropriate and disproportionate to the actual threat posed by the virus. The problems being faced by society and in the economy are predominantly caused by the public health rules initiated as a consequence of the virus, and not the virus itself.
The sheer scale of the project of managing the pandemic, and the time it has been going on, has created a problem of producer interest. There are a vast amount of jobs and investments that rely on the continued management of the pandemic as at present.
The challenge is to wind down the system, whilst keeping the essential infrastructure and systems in place, so they can be quickly wound back up when needed. Thats not an easy task.
Why should we not be at the end of the pandemic? Pandemics do end. Spanish flu ended. Hong Kong flu ended. Even bubonic plague ended. Even AIDS “ended” tho it took ages and needed better treatments
Unless this virus was so brilliantly engineered in the lab that it is superior to all other pathogens and can keep evolving to defeat us, covid will end
Incidentally, on that note of lab leak, there are some non-idiots on Twitter asking about the origin of Omicron. It’s lineage is odd, apparently
Various theories abound. One is that it came from an animal reservoir, hence its apparently mysterious mutations. Another is that it was engineered - again - in a lab, and deliberately released to end delta and be milder. So a GOOD “lab leak”
Who knows.
The last idea is funny, but surely a conspiracy theory too far?
Perhaps a rogue, but good intentioned old South African scientist working for Dr Angelique Coetzee (pbuh) cooked it up in his garden shed in Pretoria, then had a few healthy young people over for cheese and 'wine'??
Lol. Leon has the advantage of zero knowledge in science to help him with his belief that such a thing is possible. Dan Brown could probably use that for a ripping yarn airport best seller. "The Omicron Code"
Let me guess the plot - Prof Robert Langford is visiting an archeological site in _____ when approached by a lovely young woman who warns him of ________. They then hide on the run using clues from a historical scroll from the ________ period and uncover a rogue department in the _______ govt which they expose and destroy saving millions of lives
(Insert words where appropriate and publish novel)
Keir Starmer: “The Government is paralysed because of the Prime Minister’s behaviour in Downing Street and the attempts of his Cabinet to save his skin.
11:46am Top civil servant says he gave incorrect evidence over animal airlift The Foreign Office's top mandarin has apologised for misleading MPs in the row over the evacuation of animals from Afghanistan.
Sir Philip Barton, the Foreign Office's permanent under-secretary, had told the Foreign Affairs Committee that Nigel Casey, the Prime Minister's special representative for Afghanistan, had not received any correspondence referring to any intervention by Boris Johnson in the evacuation from the country of animals from the Nowzad charity.
But in emails revealed by Newsnight, Mr Casey was seen to have asked an official "to seek clear guidance for us from No 10 asap on what they would like us to do" in the case.
Sir Philip has now written to the committee's chairman, Tory MP Tom Tugendhat, to apologise.
He said he had given "inadvertently inaccurate answers"
Do these guys spend all their time making up bizarre statements to admit how they LIARS. They always seem to remember the truth when they are proven to be liars. It is endemic with government and top civil servants.
Keir Starmer: “The Government is paralysed because of the Prime Minister’s behaviour in Downing Street and the attempts of his Cabinet to save his skin.
Ian Dunt @IanDunt · 1h They'd have failed to intervene to stop an illegal gathering, failed to launch an investigation when news of it emerged, forced the civil service to conduct an inquiry due to their reticence & then undermined the release of its findings by belatedly initiating their own.
Or more realistically, succeeded in protecting the people who appointed them and kept them in position after other repeated failures.
Time for Keir Starmer, Sadiq Khan and Yvette Cooper to make clear their complete lack of confidence in Cressida Dick, call for her resignation and to make it clear that she'd be out of the door the moment they're in a position to make it happen.
Keir Starmer: “The Government is paralysed because of the Prime Minister’s behaviour in Downing Street and the attempts of his Cabinet to save his skin.
I thought Johnson's remark, though not very well delivered was quite funny, particularly as he is a bit of a porker himself. If he had been skinny that would have been bad.
I said the storm would blow over. A pretty good week for Johnson.
He’s going to survive isn’t he?
I still think he should go - morally - but I can’t deny it will be amusing to watch the raging apoplexy of his enemies, if he does survive
If you count surviving as everyone thinking he is a lowlife cheating lying criminal clown. At least that would mean an absolute thrashing for the nasty party at next election.
Either the Met is seeking to unduly influence the cabinet office investigation to protect political patrons.
Or since the start of the week, it has become clear that the Met investigation is leading in a direction that is more serious than just fixed penalty notices, perhaps obstruction of justice.
I actually start to lean towards option 2, because it would be brazen and foolish on the part of the Met to think that option 1 could succeed for long and the upside for them personally doesn’t seem worth the risk.
That seems rational to me, but there is the 3rd option and that is the Met is being seriously stupid and doing a pointless investigation that results in nothing or a few fines and buggers up the whole process for weeks, months, years. It is not like they don't have a reputation for this sort of thing to uphold.
Is the generous take - for the Met - that Gray found something much more significant than party attendance?
Hard to keep up.
Sky just saying that
Some people have alleged that, having discovered that the Gray report is not a whitewash and the lady herself cannot be nobbled, the Government has turned to its pet police force to make sure that none of the juicy bits ever see the light of day.
Of course, such allegations are baseless and should definitely be rejected.
'This whole mess, this whole paralysing of politics, has been caused by the PM and his wrongdoing'
@Keir_Starmer says the Sue Gray and police investigations into partygate must conclude as soon as possible because the 'whole of government is paralysed'
Seems like the Dartford by-elections were pretty comfy Con holds - little suggestion thatr my old neck of the woods are up in arms about anything at the moment. When the baying mob on here gets into a tither about things they invariably go ott pretty quickly and it usually ends up in a massive pile -up on HYUFD & sometimes Big G. I notice this time poor old Sandpit also got a fait bit merely for suggesting another view. All a bit silly - I remain confident that Boris's days are numbered and that Starmer is not going to do it for Labour.
Allies of PM point suggest that if suspected law breaches are taken out of Sue Gray - “they take out the juicier stuff and we just hear the residue” as one minister put it, the full details may never come out, as police won’t provide narrative of who knew what when issuing fine…
Is the generous take - for the Met - that Gray found something much more significant than party attendance?
Hard to keep up.
Sky just saying that
Some people have alleged that, having discovered that the Gray report is not a whitewash and the lady herself cannot be nobbled, the Government has turned to its pet police force to make sure that none of the juicy bits ever see the light of day.
Of course, such allegations are baseless and should definitely be rejected.
My guess is a copy will be leaked to the press in time for the Sunday papers.
But they won't be able to publish it, legal issues.
Not so. It isn't sub judice unless they've charged someone by then
I just cannot believe how disgusting this is
And yet the opposition lead by Labour were demanding a police investigation and maybe they had not thought through the consequences
I have no idea how Starmer, especially with his lawyer hat on, deals with this
"As a former head of public prosecutions I am on the side of those seeking to bring bad guys to justice. If the Met have grounds for suspecting serious criminal activity in 10 Downing Street, I support that activity being fully investigated even if means a delay in Sue Gray's report."
Did he really call it "serious criminal activity"?
Starmer hasn't said this, but he could take this approach - in response to @Big_G_NorthWales' remark about Starmer being caught in a situation difficult to get out of. Basically imply that if the Met is blocking Sue Gray's report, it's because the situation is much more serious than we know about.
Or rather, unless they are investigating serious criminal activity, then this is a coverup.
The question is why the sudden change of mind? For two days the Met were briefing that there was no need to hold back Gray's report and then suddenly at 10am today complete volte face.
Someone put a call in to PC Dick?
My instinct is that there is something more serious. If Sue Gray suspects people have been wiping evidence then this could get much more serious. If she is, as many of us suspect, is from one of the security services then she has a pretty good chance of uncovering such behaviour. One of the fundamental problems with having a PM that thinks the rules are there to be bent is the risk that one day he tries to bend them too far. It might be getting too hyperbolic to suggest a Watergate type scandal, but it is perfectly possible that such a thing could happen here, and probably rather more likely while we have a serial liar in the most senior position in the land
The trouble with this is that the PM’s fingerprints won’t be on any order to delete evidence.
Unless whoever takes the rap for it is prepared to testify that Boris told them to.
I said the storm would blow over. A pretty good week for Johnson.
He’s going to survive isn’t he?
I still think he should go - morally - but I can’t deny it will be amusing to watch the raging apoplexy of his enemies, if he does survive
If you count surviving as everyone thinking he is a lowlife cheating lying criminal clown. At least that would mean an absolute thrashing for the nasty party at next election.
So says the man that is the no1 fanboy with undying adulation and love for a man that was described by his own QC as "a bully and a sex pest".
And on that non-bombshell, I am going to have some lunch. Hope you are well Malc. 😂😂😂😂😂😂
Allies of PM point suggest that if suspected law breaches are taken out of Sue Gray - “they take out the juicier stuff and we just hear the residue” as one minister put it, the full details may never come out, as police won’t provide narrative of who knew what when issuing fine…
Starmer is obviously deeply suspicious that something like this is what's going on, judging by his statement below. Maybe he'll get even more confident and open about challenging it, although I expect that would carry further risks, too.
Some people have alleged that, having discovered that the Gray report is not a whitewash and the lady herself cannot be nobbled, the Government has turned to its pet police force to make sure that none of the juicy bits ever see the light of day.
Of course, such allegations are baseless and should definitely be rejected.
The dam holds for another day.
When BoZo finally does go, I wonder how much sleaze will be exposed
Allies of PM point suggest that if suspected law breaches are taken out of Sue Gray - “they take out the juicier stuff and we just hear the residue” as one minister put it, the full details may never come out, as police won’t provide narrative of who knew what when issuing fine…
Impressive. @Leon For your writing do you just need a laptop so can travel anywhere? Do you travel alone? I ask because I like my own company and like being alone at times (I am at the moment while my wife is away), but I think I would get lonely if I traveled alone or go to events alone, but I know lots do. It is something I dread if that ever happened to me. If you are alone, you seem to thrive on it and I am very jealous.
We all know what happens next: some minion will be led away in cuffs while Boris announces 'more in sorrow than anger' that some of his staff fell short of public expectations but lessons will be learnt.
I said the storm would blow over. A pretty good week for Johnson.
He’s going to survive isn’t he?
I still think he should go - morally - but I can’t deny it will be amusing to watch the raging apoplexy of his enemies, if he does survive
Yes - people will get bored with it. But possibly in the same way that you get bored with perpetually suspecting that your spouse is cheating on you and laughing at you behind your back.
I said the storm would blow over. A pretty good week for Johnson.
He’s going to survive isn’t he?
I still think he should go - morally - but I can’t deny it will be amusing to watch the raging apoplexy of his enemies, if he does survive
Yes - people will get bored with it. But possibly in the same way that you get bored with perpetually suspecting that your spouse is cheating on you and laughing at you behind your back.
Comments
You clearly have not read my posts over the last 3 months as I promote Rishi who I want as PM asap
Unless this virus was so brilliantly engineered in the lab that it is superior to all other pathogens and can keep evolving to defeat us, covid will end
Incidentally, on that note of lab leak, there are some non-idiots on Twitter asking about the origin of Omicron. It’s lineage is odd, apparently
Various theories abound. One is that it came from an animal reservoir, hence its apparently mysterious mutations. Another is that it was engineered - again - in a lab, and deliberately released to end delta and be milder. So a GOOD “lab leak”
Who knows.
This is what Big Bad Dom can do
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-60161533
https://twitter.com/susie_dent/status/1487025736301125641
The way to do it is to wait until you are in government. Then arrange a meeting with all the Chief Constables etc*.
Then hand their their dismissal notices on the spot.
*Prehaps a party at No. 10?
Sparple is so much better
And NPXMP is, I am afraid, a catchfart
Sorry Nick
Perhaps a rogue, but good intentioned old South African scientist working for Dr Angelique Coetzee (pbuh) cooked it up in his garden shed in Pretoria, then had a few healthy young people over for cheese and 'wine'??
Either the Met is seeking to unduly influence the cabinet office investigation to protect political patrons.
Or since the start of the week, it has become clear that the Met investigation is leading in a direction that is more serious than just fixed penalty notices, perhaps obstruction of justice.
I actually start to lean towards option 2, because it would be brazen and foolish on the part of the Met to think that option 1 could succeed for long and the upside for them personally doesn’t seem worth the risk.
Would explain a lot
Hard to keep up.
Surveys of economists in 2016 showed overwhelming agreement that Brexit would likely reduce the UK's real per-capita income level. 2019 and 2017 surveys of existing academic research found that the credible estimates ranged between GDP losses of 1.2–4.5% for the UK and a cost of between 1%–10% of the UK's income per capita.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit#Long-term_impact_on_the_UK_economy
In reality UK 2021 growth is down as 6.9%, and France now at 7% according to latest figures. Virtually no difference.
That really does not drown out the Brexit forecasts that we were peddled, never mind such as the collapsing house prices and soaring unemployment.
I'd say that current evidence suggests that such forecasts from various remain campaign groups were a tissue of bollocks.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pfizer-trials-tailored-omicron-vaccine-trw2zk2gt
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-10093137/Brits-masturbated-25-lockdown-study-suggests.html
Well, first off, a majority disagree the current govt deserves to be re-elected. Up 10 pts from Sept.
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1487041855992778763/photo/1
Prof Francois Balloux alludes to it here and in adjacent threads
“Option B feels highly implausible to me, but when Omicron emerged, where the lineage fits in the tree, and when BA.1 and BA.2 (and BA.3) split remains very murky.”
https://twitter.com/ballouxfrancois/status/1485980425369567233?s=21
Have to be careful to not launch certain websites on the work VM...
I do them for a living and, imo, a long list of caveats indicates credibility, even if that undermines the confidence you can place on the figure.
It recently occurred to me that I know the first time I heard the word. And it was before the pandemic. It was by Joe Thomas, and was on series 8 of Taskmaster, which was in 2019 - so not long before.
I do agree that it is one of the words of the pandemic though.
"Boris Johnson celebrated his 56th birthday yesterday with a small gathering in the cabinet room. Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, and a group of aides sang him Happy Birthday before they tucked into a Union Jack cake."
Which may or may not have been within the rules at the time.
Recent reports (eg https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-59577129) say:
"Up to 30 people attended, sang Happy Birthday and were served cake, according to ITV News. As well as Downing Street staff, the interior designer Lulu Lytle - who was not a member of No 10 staff - was present."
It's not exactly the same thing is it? At that time "small gathering" would have made me think 5 or 6 people. And Lulu Lytle can't be described as an "aide".
According to the same article, at the time
"Gatherings of more than two people inside were banned by law. An exception was allowed if the gathering "was reasonably necessary" for work purposes."
Not sure why Sandpit is so confident that there was nothing wrong with the birthday party. Sounds quite likely that it broke the law to me.
Nobody is happy with this
Top civil servant says he gave incorrect evidence over animal airlift
The Foreign Office's top mandarin has apologised for misleading MPs in the row over the evacuation of animals from Afghanistan.
Sir Philip Barton, the Foreign Office's permanent under-secretary, had told the Foreign Affairs Committee that Nigel Casey, the Prime Minister's special representative for Afghanistan, had not received any correspondence referring to any intervention by Boris Johnson in the evacuation from the country of animals from the Nowzad charity.
But in emails revealed by Newsnight, Mr Casey was seen to have asked an official "to seek clear guidance for us from No 10 asap on what they would like us to do" in the case.
Sir Philip has now written to the committee's chairman, Tory MP Tom Tugendhat, to apologise.
He said he had given "inadvertently inaccurate answers"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/01/28/sue-gray-report-boris-johnson-downing-street-party-release/
https://youtu.be/243jDt9xxws
(Insert words where appropriate and publish novel)
The Gray report must be published in full as soon as possible and the police have to get on with their investigation.”
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1487049851821076487
I still think he should go - morally - but I can’t deny it will be amusing to watch the raging apoplexy of his enemies, if he does survive
My feeling is Johnson has overreached himself. He has been shown a draft of Gray and it is so terminal for him that he is now out of control
Doggate is also terminal, it's just that one thing is obscuring the other. Philip Barton now admits lying to fac
But I’d still take Sri Lanka. Certainly in January. TBH
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1487049063618990088
Of course, such allegations are baseless and should definitely be rejected.
@Keir_Starmer says the Sue Gray and police investigations into partygate must conclude as soon as possible because the 'whole of government is paralysed'
https://www.itv.com/news/2022-01-28/police-asked-sue-gray-to-remove-details-of-parties-under-criminal-investigation https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1487051471845740550/video/1
All a bit silly - I remain confident that Boris's days are numbered and that Starmer is not going to do it for Labour.
Boris has a pair of nines, he has made you think he has 4 aces, and Gray is a straight flush anyway.
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1487052804241903617
Unless whoever takes the rap for it is prepared to testify that Boris told them to.
And on that non-bombshell, I am going to have some lunch. Hope you are well Malc. 😂😂😂😂😂😂
When BoZo finally does go, I wonder how much sleaze will be exposed
ONS debunks ‘spurious’ Covid deaths claim shared by David Davis
Suggestion true number of deaths in England and Wales could be as low as 17,000 is factually incorrect, says ONS
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/28/ons-debunks-spurious-covid-deaths-claim-shared-by-david-davis