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The great cover up continues – politicalbetting.com

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  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190

    AlistairM said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    AlistairM said:

    Just seen this Tweet:

    So this was just out there the whole time then?
    image
    https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1486982533690855424

    Just did a quick Google and saw this article in The Times to confirm:
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-settles-in-as-downing-sts-captain-sensible-t7xr2689g

    The birthday gathering with cake was an article in The Times and no one even noticed.

    LOL. No-one cared at the time, because there was really nothing to care about. It’s only a story now, because of Cummings being vindictive and the Lobby trying to find a story. So we have this rubbish leading the news for a week, and the Leader of the Opposition calling for the PM to resign because his wife bought a cake to the office on his birthday.
    You really are living up to the second part of your name this morning Mr Sandpit.

    It really matters because most of this country went through hell during the lockdowns. We weren't able to visit loved ones. We weren't able to have birthday parties. In some cases we even had to endure loved ones dying alone.

    Do you really not understand why this matters so much to us all or are you just trying the hardest to be the nastiest person on the forum?
    Genuine questions. If you had known about this at the time from reading the article, would you have been outraged? Can you explain why there is outrage now but not back then?

    I have felt recently that Boris ought to go. I am beginning to think that I have fallen to spin. I do not understand why it is apparently a resignation matter now but a story not even commented on 18 months ago.
    The birthday cake one is irrelevant. Most of the others bar the Prince Philip one an early sincere apology would have been fine. The Philip one, the PM was not there so could have sacked the organiser and job done.

    The real issue for me is the constant, obvious lying. Trust (not Truss) is vital, and if we accept a Trumpian world view of alternate realities for every event democracy itself will not last. The lying is why he should go.
    And the attitude
    "if you can get away with something, that proves you were right"
  • DavidL said:

    There is a significant issue in relation to the police investigation which seems to be getting little attention. The penalty for breaches of the Covid regulations was a fixed penalty fine in the first instance. Pre-Covid the police/procurator fiscal/CPS had 6 months in which to intiate proceedings in respect of a fixed penalty. In Scotland, and presumably in England as well, that period was extended to 12 months in the Covid regulations.

    This means, for example, that the police cannot charge anyone or issue any fixed penalties in relation to the alleged party on 20th May 2020. It is simply time barred. In which event why are the police investigating this at all and why is the supposed police investigation being allowed to interfere with Gray's report.

    Interesting and is that why the Met declined to investigate previously, and maybe only serious breaches of the law will now be investigated
  • It's probably in Labour's strategic interest for Johnson to stumble on into 2023 but not necessarily to fight the next election. He might even still have some magic with sections of the electorate but the Tory party would likely be paralysed if he lasts another year.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424

    It's probably in Labour's strategic interest for Johnson to stumble on into 2023 but not necessarily to fight the next election. He might even still have some magic with sections of the electorate but the Tory party would likely be paralysed if he lasts another year.

    Posters all over the place with Johnson with his pants on fire?
  • Cyclefree said:

    AlistairM said:

    Just seen this Tweet:

    So this was just out there the whole time then?
    image
    https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1486982533690855424

    Just did a quick Google and saw this article in The Times to confirm:
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-settles-in-as-downing-sts-captain-sensible-t7xr2689g

    The birthday gathering with cake was an article in The Times and no one even noticed.

    Also singing Happy Birthday or eating a cake in the office was not, sigh, a breach of the rules at the time.
    Indeed.

    The party late into the night with bottles of wine is a serious breach.

    This nonsense is just demeaning and belittles the whole story.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    FPT

    The Met Police is a complete and utter disgrace. Never been their biggest fan, but my god somehow my opinion of them has managed to get even lower than it was before.

    Hope Sue Gray just released the report tbh and tells the Met to go and do one.

    I think she'll be happy with this. It's a more comfortable position for her now.
    No, her name will be associated with cover up for the rest of her life. A career ruined.

    I'd just resign with a short explanation.
    If she feels frustrated by what she sees as a cover up she ought to do something like that, yes.
  • Sandpit said:

    RobD said:
    As with the PM’s birthday cake, the test serial numbers issue was something that was first mentioned a few weeks ago. Does look like the BBC have gone for a deep dive on it though.

    How does Mr Djokovic ever get a visa for any country, at least until the end of all Covid regulations?
    Of the four Opens two of them require vaccinations.

    He might be able to do the US Open and Wimbledon, but he can surely write off the French Open.
  • Re Cummings I believe he has a blog and maybe it would interesting to see how he is responding to all this, even if he is saying anything
  • Cookie said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    AlistairM said:

    Just seen this Tweet:

    So this was just out there the whole time then?
    image
    https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1486982533690855424

    Just did a quick Google and saw this article in The Times to confirm:
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-settles-in-as-downing-sts-captain-sensible-t7xr2689g

    The birthday gathering with cake was an article in The Times and no one even noticed.

    LOL. No-one cared at the time, because there was really nothing to care about. It’s only a story now, because of Cummings being vindictive and the Lobby trying to find a story. So we have this rubbish leading the news for a week, and the Leader of the Opposition calling for the PM to resign because his wife bought a cake to the office on his birthday.
    You really are living up to the second part of your name this morning Mr Sandpit.

    It really matters because most of this country went through hell during the lockdowns. We weren't able to visit loved ones. We weren't able to have birthday parties. In some cases we even had to endure loved ones dying alone.

    Do you really not understand why this matters so much to us all or are you just trying the hardest to be the nastiest person on the forum?
    I understand why people are angry, I’m saying that the anger specifically about the government is misplaced, and that events are being re-cast with the benefit of hindsight and a lack of knowledge as to what were actually the regulations at various times.

    Talking of Times, the newspaper of record mentioned that the PM received a birthday cake, the day after it happened. Why didn’t everyone jump up and down about it at the time? Because at the time there was actually nothing wrong with it.
    If that's the case, why do we have supporters of the PM suggest there wasn't a cake? Or that Boris "popped in" to that party or this party, or was ambushed? That the obvious garden party was a work meeting?
    Who said there wasn’t a cake?

    ‘Ambushed’ is an interesting word, but I think it’s fair to say that the birthday gathering in No.10 was organised for Mr Johnson, rather than by Mr Johnson.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/01/27/boris-johnson-tells-allies-no-ambush-cake-no-10-lockdown-birthday/

    I post this simply to answer the question of 'who said?', rather than as some sort of proof that there wasn't a cake.

    The issue of whether or not there is a cake seems a hilariously minor detail in the wider question of whether Boris should or should not be replaced as PM.
    Cake-gate was clearly a no 10 leak to obfuscate and get people talking about the wrong things. Playing Cummings at his own games.
    I think you could be right. Boris saying 'We're dealing with the vital issues - Covid, levelling up and restarting the British economy - while all the Right Honourable Gentleman has to talk about is cake...' pretty much writes itself.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    FPT

    The Met Police is a complete and utter disgrace. Never been their biggest fan, but my god somehow my opinion of them has managed to get even lower than it was before.

    Hope Sue Gray just released the report tbh and tells the Met to go and do one.

    I think she'll be happy with this. It's a more comfortable position for her now.
    No, her name will be associated with cover up for the rest of her life. A career ruined.

    Nah. Playing ball and keeping schtum would be a reason for advancement.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Pulpstar said:

    A police investigation on this, with all the resources of he Met shouldn't take more than a couple of weeks; and those couple of weeks should have started a while back.
    These are not, in the grand scheme of things, particularly large crimes that have been potentially committed. They are somewhere between speeding and shoplifting. Absolubtely enough for the PM to go (With the lies about it all) but not worth wasting time investigating something that probably falls down - certainly for the PM - as it was technically perhaps his property.
    The Met is off it's trolley here.

    Perverting the course of justice

    Think about it: there's 100 people here being given instructions to destroy by a lazy, panicking liar with an inadequate grasp of how IT works. In examining evidence for parties SG will *inevitably* have come across mismatches (messages on sender's device but not recipients and vv) and possibly written instructions to destroy evidence

    I am embarrassed not to have seen this for myself this morning, but the theory has now been widely aired and is almost certainly right. This is no longer about parties just as Huhne was not about speeding

    BJ to be destroyed by DPP, just not the one we thought
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Your daily dose of panic:

    Really worried about the direction things are moving in globally. BA.2 and BA.1.1. seem to be sweeping to dominance in different regions rapidly. Pandemic growth has also resumed in many places including England, & more recently Gauteng. A thread looking at the current evidence.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1487008788016205830?s=20&t=Z8J9CSc7jicE1E2OdBrcUg

    Oddly enough she neglects to mention that UK ICU occupancy is the lowest since July.....an oversight, I'm sure....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:
    As with the PM’s birthday cake, the test serial numbers issue was something that was first mentioned a few weeks ago. Does look like the BBC have gone for a deep dive on it though.

    How does Mr Djokovic ever get a visa for any country, at least until the end of all Covid regulations?
    Of the four Opens two of them require vaccinations.

    He might be able to do the US Open and Wimbledon, but he can surely write off the French Open.
    My thinking wasn’t particularly about the vaccination requirements, but whether any country would welcome him with a visa after the shenanigans in Australia? The US will certainly ask him if he’s ever been deported or refused a visa before.

    He can probably turn up at the Baku Invitational, or the Doha Masters though.
  • Starmer is in a compromised position re the Met

    Lawyer not leader rings true, ironic really
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    AlistairM said:

    Just seen this Tweet:

    So this was just out there the whole time then?
    image
    https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1486982533690855424

    Just did a quick Google and saw this article in The Times to confirm:
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-settles-in-as-downing-sts-captain-sensible-t7xr2689g

    The birthday gathering with cake was an article in The Times and no one even noticed.

    As a matter of interest, what were the 2 u turns and back bench unrest at that time?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited January 2022
    The Met want us to believe that a report which if published in full would bring down the PM has to be altered because it would otherwise prejudice their issuing of fixed penalty notices.

    Disgraceful. The Met is literally worse than useless. And yes, a cover up.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 882

    It's probably in Labour's strategic interest for Johnson to stumble on into 2023 but not necessarily to fight the next election. He might even still have some magic with sections of the electorate but the Tory party would likely be paralysed if he lasts another year.

    I don't know if you want to be fighting an election during a new leader's honeymoon... Then again, the campaign seemed to actively end TM's so you could be onto something. Risky. If they're good, Labour is stuffed, if they have campaigning deficits then Labour might win, but Boris is a known quantity. How could you trust anything he says in a GE?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited January 2022

    This is why Boris Johnson should resign/be forced out.

    First official estimate puts French growth in 2021 at 7% - the highest annual figure for half a century! And ahead of the previous forecast of 6.7 or 6.8%. If confirmed this would make France the fastest growing G7 country last year

    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1486991744524640258

    The UK data, when they are published, will probably show UK GDP growth in 2021 as slightly higher than that - around 7.3% I would expect - although UK GDP fell more than French GDP in 2020 (-9.4% vs - 8.0%). Both the decline and recovery in the UK are likely over-stated by the way the data are calculated. The big picture, as is often the case, is that differences between the two countries are much exaggerated, but France is probably marginally ahead taking 2020 and 2021 together, and that is probably down to Brexit.
    Not at the moment leading to a Macron landslide though except against Zemmour. (who is now a poor 4th in first round polls)

    Latest French runoff poll from Harris:

    Macron 54%
    Pecresse 46%

    Macron 54%
    Le Pen 46%

    Macron 63%
    Zemmour 37%
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1486459576908193793?s=20&t=Mn4m6ZdU1LNxEi3n8eY6Rw
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1486455376212115465?s=20&t=Mn4m6ZdU1LNxEi3n8eY6Rw
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1486454840997912579?s=20&t=Mn4m6ZdU1LNxEi3n8eY6Rw

    Elabe has it closer for Pecresse, 52% Macron 48% Pecresse and its previous poll was 50% 50%
    https://elabe.fr/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/20220126_elabe_bfmtv_lexpress_sfr_les-francais-lelection-presidentielle-2022-et-la-primaire-populaire.pdf
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    DavidL said:

    There is a significant issue in relation to the police investigation which seems to be getting little attention. The penalty for breaches of the Covid regulations was a fixed penalty fine in the first instance. Pre-Covid the police/procurator fiscal/CPS had 6 months in which to intiate proceedings in respect of a fixed penalty. In Scotland, and presumably in England as well, that period was extended to 12 months in the Covid regulations.

    This means, for example, that the police cannot charge anyone or issue any fixed penalties in relation to the alleged party on 20th May 2020. It is simply time barred. In which event why are the police investigating this at all and why is the supposed police investigation being allowed to interfere with Gray's report.

    Interesting and is that why the Met declined to investigate previously, and maybe only serious breaches of the law will now be investigated
    Destroying evidence and ordering same, for a start.

    Once again - if Sue Gray found evidence of possible illegality, did she have any other option than reporting to the police? And the police have no other option, but to ask that evidence is not published until they have completed their investigation.....
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:
    As with the PM’s birthday cake, the test serial numbers issue was something that was first mentioned a few weeks ago. Does look like the BBC have gone for a deep dive on it though.

    How does Mr Djokovic ever get a visa for any country, at least until the end of all Covid regulations?
    Of the four Opens two of them require vaccinations.

    He might be able to do the US Open and Wimbledon, but he can surely write off the French Open.
    Ironically the French Open is the only one he can turn up to without a visa nowadays.
  • Shocked to find out that novax pcr tests look a little irregular...

    BBC News - Novak Djokovic: Doubts over timing of Covid test
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/59999541
  • Its the cover up that gets ya......
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    IshmaelZ said:

    Think about it: there's 100 people here being given instructions to destroy by a lazy, panicking liar with an inadequate grasp of how IT works. In examining evidence for parties SG will *inevitably* have come across mismatches (messages on sender's device but not recipients and vv) and possibly written instructions to destroy evidence

    And Sue Gray, of course, is very accustomed to trawling for electronic evidence across No 10 and the Cabinet Office, because that's what she had to do in her previous role as FOI gatekeeper.
  • Foxy said:

    AlistairM said:

    Just seen this Tweet:

    So this was just out there the whole time then?
    image
    https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1486982533690855424

    Just did a quick Google and saw this article in The Times to confirm:
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-settles-in-as-downing-sts-captain-sensible-t7xr2689g

    The birthday gathering with cake was an article in The Times and no one even noticed.

    As a matter of interest, what were the 2 u turns and back bench unrest at that time?
    Free school meals and the Covid app possibly:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/8-u-turns-in-8-months-from-boris-johnsons-government/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    While we are on the subject of investigations - and perhaps cheekily trying to get Ms @Cyclefree to comment on an F1 post - have a guess who was the chairman at last week’s F1 teams meeting with their governing body?

    ”The FIA's secretary general for motorsport and executive director of single-seaters Peter Bayer last week took part in a meeting of the teams' sporting directors, which the FIA says was part of the inquiry into Abu Dhabi.

    “Masi chaired the meeting, but insiders say he recused himself when the subject turned to the operation of the safety car in Abu Dhabi and the consequences and ramifications of that.

    “It was agreed at the meeting that, in future, the race director's actions have to be predictable - it was Masi's improvisations around and failure to follow the rules in Abu Dhabi that led to the outcry after the race.


    https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/60160969

    How is he not suspended from any role with the FIA, while the investigation is to his bizzare conduct at the last race is still underway?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited January 2022

    Starmer is in a compromised position re the Met

    Lawyer not leader rings true, ironic really

    Utter nonsense, no he's not. However, the relationship between Downing Street, the Home Office and the Commissioner smells very unpleasant.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    A police investigation on this, with all the resources of he Met shouldn't take more than a couple of weeks; and those couple of weeks should have started a while back.
    These are not, in the grand scheme of things, particularly large crimes that have been potentially committed. They are somewhere between speeding and shoplifting. Absolubtely enough for the PM to go (With the lies about it all) but not worth wasting time investigating something that probably falls down - certainly for the PM - as it was technically perhaps his property.
    The Met is off it's trolley here.

    Perverting the course of justice

    Think about it: there's 100 people here being given instructions to destroy by a lazy, panicking liar with an inadequate grasp of how IT works. In examining evidence for parties SG will *inevitably* have come across mismatches (messages on sender's device but not recipients and vv) and possibly written instructions to destroy evidence

    I am embarrassed not to have seen this for myself this morning, but the theory has now been widely aired and is almost certainly right. This is no longer about parties just as Huhne was not about speeding

    BJ to be destroyed by DPP, just not the one we thought
    From the CPS website -

    "
    The offence of Perverting the Course of Justice is committed when an accused:

    does an act or series of acts;
    which has or have a tendency to pervert; and
    which is or are intended to pervert;
    the course of public justice.
    The offence is contrary to common law and triable only on indictment. It carries a maximum penalty of life imprisonment and/or a fine. The course of justice must be in existence at the time of the act(s). The course of justice starts when:

    - an event has occurred, from which it can reasonably be expected that an investigation will follow; or
    - investigations which could/might bring proceedings have actually started; or
    - proceedings have started or are about to start."

    Note the first bullet point.

    Given what the Met said publicly at the start of all this farrago and the fact that some of the potential offences may be time barred in any case (see the post from @DavidL upthread) it is quite possible that instructions to wipe phones might not be caught by this offence.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited January 2022
    Further swing away from Labour with Yougov

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (-1)
    CON: 32% (=)
    LDM: 11% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 26-27 Jan.
    Changes w/ 20-21 Jan.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1487008778742550530?s=20&t=oQp2ZULDsTDqWYbcdIfb8g
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    The Met want us to believe that a report which if published in full would bring down the PM has to be altered because it would otherwise prejudice their issuing of fixed penalty notices.

    Disgraceful. The Met is literally worse than useless. And yes, a cover up.

    Unless this is about perverting the course of justice

    There's serious grounds to think it is. And if it is, that - delightfully - very likely implies porridge for Boris
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Labour need to go in hard on the corruption angle here. Show that after numerous failures in her role Dick was given a stay of execution by the Home Secretary and now Dick is returning the favour. Starmer needs to fight this with actual passion, not lawyerly boring technicalities.

    Starmer is not going to accuse the Met Commissioner of corruption. He publicly stood by her after one of her previous cock ups last year. Big mistake in my view.
    How did the tactical commander who gave the erroneous order to blow away a Brazilian electrician going about his business on a crowded tube train, avoid having to clear her desk the following day?
    Because it was unclear whether the surveillance team had given her a positive identification of the suspect. Either she or they were lying. On the balance of probabilites I thought it was the surveillance team. The fact that her career prospered subsequently suggests this was a widely held view.
    The police management played the classic game.

    1) The Police on the ground were left in front of the bus, inches from the wheels.
    2) The people on the ground were informed that "we are all in this together".
    3) With a subtext of "In my case I get early retirement on a full pension and write a book. You might go to prison and/or get fucked by lawyers for years"
    4) Evidence starts vanishing. People at the shape end get memory problems.

    Apparently the control room was a bit noisy, which confused things. Which apparently meant that any mistakes were forgivable.

    The ability to shout "EVERYONE SHUT THE FUCK UP!" was not included in Police Senior Management capabilities, evidently.

    I have very considerable sympathy for the team that actually shot De Mendes - they were given what they honestly thought was a lawful order, issued with due authority, in a matter of grave importance.

    The fact that the game was played that "If you accuse anyone of incompetence, the front line guys *have* to get it in the neck" was disgusting.
    They didn't like Dick, that's for sure.

    The whole unhappy saga commenced with the surveillance officer [there was only one?] watching the suspect going for a call of nature at just the very moment when the suspect left the building. What followed was a farcical chase with confused messages back and forth to the control room.

    The inquiry couldn't find a clear culprit and I'm not going to say I can but if I had to take a wild stab at what happened I should say that there was a certain amount of messing about amongst the surveillance boys and when it got serious they tried to mess her around too. In the end she felt she had enough of an identification to issue an unambigous order which of course they obeyed.

    The fact she kept contemporary notes helped her a lot but it will always be guesswork as to what really happened.
    Her subsequent performance in office does not incline me to give her the benefit of the doubt.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Your daily dose of panic:

    Really worried about the direction things are moving in globally. BA.2 and BA.1.1. seem to be sweeping to dominance in different regions rapidly. Pandemic growth has also resumed in many places including England, & more recently Gauteng. A thread looking at the current evidence.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1487008788016205830?s=20&t=Z8J9CSc7jicE1E2OdBrcUg

    Oddly enough she neglects to mention that UK ICU occupancy is the lowest since July.....an oversight, I'm sure....

    And growth in the UK is mainly (exclusively?) in school ages. Who went back to school after two weeks off...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,032
    edited January 2022

    The Met want us to believe that a report which if published in full would bring down the PM has to be altered because it would otherwise prejudice their issuing of fixed penalty notices.

    Disgraceful. The Met is literally worse than useless. And yes, a cover up.

    If you have read this thread there is a lot more to this and allegations against some civil servants could be very serious and at Crown Court level

    Maybe this is Starmer's moment to attack Cressida Dick and the Met !!!!!!
  • HYUFD said:

    Further swing away from Labour with Yougov

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (-1)
    CON: 32% (=)
    LDM: 11% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 26-27 Jan.
    Changes w/ 20-21 Jan.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1487008778742550530?s=20&t=oQp2ZULDsTDqWYbcdIfb8g

    No one please explain !
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    Your daily dose of panic:

    Really worried about the direction things are moving in globally. BA.2 and BA.1.1. seem to be sweeping to dominance in different regions rapidly. Pandemic growth has also resumed in many places including England, & more recently Gauteng. A thread looking at the current evidence.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1487008788016205830?s=20&t=Z8J9CSc7jicE1E2OdBrcUg

    Oddly enough she neglects to mention that UK ICU occupancy is the lowest since July.....an oversight, I'm sure....

    Yes, the pressure in the UK health system is in other areas than ICU this time. My department has taken down a lot of activity today, it isn't only me off with it.

    In other bits of the world it has potential to be quite nasty still, not least in China and Africa.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310

    The Met want us to believe that a report which if published in full would bring down the PM has to be altered because it would otherwise prejudice their issuing of fixed penalty notices.

    Disgraceful. The Met is literally worse than useless. And yes, a cover up.

    If you have read this thread there is a lot more to this and allegations against some civil servants could be very serious and at Crown Court level
    Can I suggest that people read what the CPS has said re perverting the course of justice before jumping to conclusions.

    The link is here - https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/public-justice-offences-incorporating-charging-standard.
  • Nice to see the lad getting back to a normal existence.

    https://twitter.com/thisiskyler/status/1486847706815512579?s=21
  • DavidL said:

    There is a significant issue in relation to the police investigation which seems to be getting little attention. The penalty for breaches of the Covid regulations was a fixed penalty fine in the first instance. Pre-Covid the police/procurator fiscal/CPS had 6 months in which to intiate proceedings in respect of a fixed penalty. In Scotland, and presumably in England as well, that period was extended to 12 months in the Covid regulations.

    This means, for example, that the police cannot charge anyone or issue any fixed penalties in relation to the alleged party on 20th May 2020. It is simply time barred. In which event why are the police investigating this at all and why is the supposed police investigation being allowed to interfere with Gray's report.

    Interesting and is that why the Met declined to investigate previously, and maybe only serious breaches of the law will now be investigated
    Destroying evidence and ordering same, for a start.

    Once again - if Sue Gray found evidence of possible illegality, did she have any other option than reporting to the police? And the police have no other option, but to ask that evidence is not published until they have completed their investigation.....
    Sue Gray seems to have been exemplary in this
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    7 day incidence in Germany appears to have slightly fallen today for the first time in a month. I say appears, because in parts of Germany the labs can no longer process all the PCR tests quickly enough, so people are being advised to self-isolate just on a positive antigen test without necessarily getting the PCR confirmation. I'm not sure how such cases are being counted, but I think it is a couple of weeks too early to have reached the peak in cases.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    Your daily dose of panic:

    Really worried about the direction things are moving in globally. BA.2 and BA.1.1. seem to be sweeping to dominance in different regions rapidly. Pandemic growth has also resumed in many places including England, & more recently Gauteng. A thread looking at the current evidence.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1487008788016205830?s=20&t=Z8J9CSc7jicE1E2OdBrcUg

    Oddly enough she neglects to mention that UK ICU occupancy is the lowest since July.....an oversight, I'm sure....

    She says: "To make things worse, UKHSA vaccine report paints a dire picture with vaccine efficacy"

    Really? "Dire"? This is just disinformation now surely?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    Starmer is in a compromised position re the Met

    Lawyer not leader rings true, ironic really

    Utter nonsense, no he's not. However, the relationship between Downing Street, the Home Office and the Commissioner smells very unpleasant.
    Sadly, if Starmer actually went for the police, it is a simple fact that every decision that he took as DPP that could look slightly imperfect would be "bigged up " & leaked within hours. Probably some of the "allegations" would be entirely made up.

    Probably would include an accusation that he called someone a "Pleb" - complete with an attestation* from a member of the public** that it happened.

    * A photocopy of the police report.
    ** Retired policeman
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    The Met want us to believe that a report which if published in full would bring down the PM has to be altered because it would otherwise prejudice their issuing of fixed penalty notices.

    Disgraceful. The Met is literally worse than useless. And yes, a cover up.

    I doubt the report would bring him down regardless. But it is still nonsense.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    Further swing away from Labour with Yougov

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (-1)
    CON: 32% (=)
    LDM: 11% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 26-27 Jan.
    Changes w/ 20-21 Jan.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1487008778742550530?s=20&t=oQp2ZULDsTDqWYbcdIfb8g

    But a whopping swing to the LDs...next.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    With all the talk of people being asked to delete messages, I find it rather amusing that actually deleting them is even technically possible. There should be backups of backups of every message ever sent through government IT systems.

    Unless we are talking about WhatsApp messages on personal phones, but why are those allowed near No.10 in the first place?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    HYUFD said:

    Further swing away from Labour with Yougov

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (-1)
    CON: 32% (=)
    LDM: 11% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 26-27 Jan.
    Changes w/ 20-21 Jan.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1487008778742550530?s=20&t=oQp2ZULDsTDqWYbcdIfb8g

    Meh. Lab -1, LD +3 is not good for the Conservatives.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:
    As with the PM’s birthday cake, the test serial numbers issue was something that was first mentioned a few weeks ago. Does look like the BBC have gone for a deep dive on it though.

    How does Mr Djokovic ever get a visa for any country, at least until the end of all Covid regulations?
    Of the four Opens two of them require vaccinations.

    He might be able to do the US Open and Wimbledon, but he can surely write off the French Open.
    My thinking wasn’t particularly about the vaccination requirements, but whether any country would welcome him with a visa after the shenanigans in Australia? The US will certainly ask him if he’s ever been deported or refused a visa before.

    He can probably turn up at the Baku Invitational, or the Doha Masters though.
    The US will ask him but money talks in the USA.

    If he was a random Joe then he'd be stuffed. Multimillionaire tennis star going to a multimillion dollar tournament with sponsorship money on the line ... He'll get in.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:
    As with the PM’s birthday cake, the test serial numbers issue was something that was first mentioned a few weeks ago. Does look like the BBC have gone for a deep dive on it though.

    How does Mr Djokovic ever get a visa for any country, at least until the end of all Covid regulations?
    Of the four Opens two of them require vaccinations.

    He might be able to do the US Open and Wimbledon, but he can surely write off the French Open.
    My thinking wasn’t particularly about the vaccination requirements, but whether any country would welcome him with a visa after the shenanigans in Australia? The US will certainly ask him if he’s ever been deported or refused a visa before.

    He can probably turn up at the Baku Invitational, or the Doha Masters though.
    The US will ask him but money talks in the USA.

    If he was a random Joe then he'd be stuffed. Multimillionaire tennis star going to a multimillion dollar tournament with sponsorship money on the line ... He'll get in.
    The market at work.
  • HYUFD said:

    Further swing away from Labour with Yougov

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (-1)
    CON: 32% (=)
    LDM: 11% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 26-27 Jan.
    Changes w/ 20-21 Jan.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1487008778742550530?s=20&t=oQp2ZULDsTDqWYbcdIfb8g

    Bigger Con>LDs swing also? Vive le vote tactique!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Does the phrase "rule breaking events" (as denied by Johnson in Parliament) mean illegal or does it include the guidance? Or was all the relevant guidance also in law?

    Because I note the latest iteration is he wasn't aware of any events which "broke the law".
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    This is why Boris Johnson should resign/be forced out.

    First official estimate puts French growth in 2021 at 7% - the highest annual figure for half a century! And ahead of the previous forecast of 6.7 or 6.8%. If confirmed this would make France the fastest growing G7 country last year

    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1486991744524640258

    The UK data, when they are published, will probably show UK GDP growth in 2021 as slightly higher than that - around 7.3% I would expect - although UK GDP fell more than French GDP in 2020 (-9.4% vs - 8.0%). Both the decline and recovery in the UK are likely over-stated by the way the data are calculated. The big picture, as is often the case, is that differences between the two countries are much exaggerated, but France is probably marginally ahead taking 2020 and 2021 together, and that is probably down to Brexit.
    That's a fair summary, I took the IMF projections forwards and it looks like at the end of 2023 the UK will have lost around 2.8% in growth potential and France around 2.6% in lost growth potential. Both countries have had almost identical pandemic responses, poor early decision making and Macron is very much in the "keep everything open" camp despite huge infection numbers like Boris.

    The most interesting of them all is Germany which didn't have as big a fall as the UK or France but also having little to no bounceback and it seems as though they are already heading to trend growth so their lost potential could be significantly higher than both France or the UK. The other one I've seen that's gone a bit unnoticed is that the city consensus has downgraded all three countries' trend growth rate post pandemic which is probably a much, much bigger concern for governments than what this year's bounce back looks like. That will change long term tax growth expectations meaning structurally lower spending or higher taxes will be required.
  • DavidL said:

    There is a significant issue in relation to the police investigation which seems to be getting little attention. The penalty for breaches of the Covid regulations was a fixed penalty fine in the first instance. Pre-Covid the police/procurator fiscal/CPS had 6 months in which to intiate proceedings in respect of a fixed penalty. In Scotland, and presumably in England as well, that period was extended to 12 months in the Covid regulations.

    This means, for example, that the police cannot charge anyone or issue any fixed penalties in relation to the alleged party on 20th May 2020. It is simply time barred. In which event why are the police investigating this at all and why is the supposed police investigation being allowed to interfere with Gray's report.

    Interesting and is that why the Met declined to investigate previously, and maybe only serious breaches of the law will now be investigated
    Destroying evidence and ordering same, for a start.

    Once again - if Sue Gray found evidence of possible illegality, did she have any other option than reporting to the police? And the police have no other option, but to ask that evidence is not published until they have completed their investigation.....
    Sue Gray seems to have been exemplary in this
    Yes, if the aim is an establishment stitch up which Sir Humphrey would have been proud of, then exemplary indeed.
  • Cyclefree said:

    The Met want us to believe that a report which if published in full would bring down the PM has to be altered because it would otherwise prejudice their issuing of fixed penalty notices.

    Disgraceful. The Met is literally worse than useless. And yes, a cover up.

    If you have read this thread there is a lot more to this and allegations against some civil servants could be very serious and at Crown Court level
    Can I suggest that people read what the CPS has said re perverting the course of justice before jumping to conclusions.

    The link is here - https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/public-justice-offences-incorporating-charging-standard.
    I would just like to thank you for your interventions in this whole sorry saga

    They are very useful to us lay persons and indeed, very helpful
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    edited January 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Further swing away from Labour with Yougov

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (-1)
    CON: 32% (=)
    LDM: 11% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 26-27 Jan.
    Changes w/ 20-21 Jan.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1487008778742550530?s=20&t=oQp2ZULDsTDqWYbcdIfb8g

    You really are utterly ridiculous. You blather about opinion polls incessantly, but you expect us to believe you're so ignorant about them that you think a 1% change in one party's rating is evidence of a "swing"?

    You don't believe the rubbish you write any more than anyone else does.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310

    DavidL said:

    There is a significant issue in relation to the police investigation which seems to be getting little attention. The penalty for breaches of the Covid regulations was a fixed penalty fine in the first instance. Pre-Covid the police/procurator fiscal/CPS had 6 months in which to intiate proceedings in respect of a fixed penalty. In Scotland, and presumably in England as well, that period was extended to 12 months in the Covid regulations.

    This means, for example, that the police cannot charge anyone or issue any fixed penalties in relation to the alleged party on 20th May 2020. It is simply time barred. In which event why are the police investigating this at all and why is the supposed police investigation being allowed to interfere with Gray's report.

    Interesting and is that why the Met declined to investigate previously, and maybe only serious breaches of the law will now be investigated
    Destroying evidence and ordering same, for a start.

    Once again - if Sue Gray found evidence of possible illegality, did she have any other option than reporting to the police? And the police have no other option, but to ask that evidence is not published until they have completed their investigation.....
    I feel like I'm banging my head against a brick wall here. But once again - deleting stuff from your phone or email before any police investigation has started does not generally amount to perverting the course of justice. See what the CPS has to say on the topic.

    After it may do.

    People are jumping to conclusions. And if the offence was time barred so no prosecution could have happened in any case what "course of justice" could anyone have been perverting anyway? These are complicated matters.
  • Your daily dose of panic:

    Really worried about the direction things are moving in globally. BA.2 and BA.1.1. seem to be sweeping to dominance in different regions rapidly. Pandemic growth has also resumed in many places including England, & more recently Gauteng. A thread looking at the current evidence.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1487008788016205830?s=20&t=Z8J9CSc7jicE1E2OdBrcUg

    Oddly enough she neglects to mention that UK ICU occupancy is the lowest since July.....an oversight, I'm sure....

    She says: "To make things worse, UKHSA vaccine report paints a dire picture with vaccine efficacy"

    Really? "Dire"? This is just disinformation now surely?
    Horseshoe in action again. The only way the lockdown hawks can keep going with their spiel is to adopt antivaxx lies to pretend vaccines don't work.

    The animals looked from lockdown hawks to antivaxxers, from antivaxxers to lockdown hawks, and lockdown hawks to antivaxxers again but it was impossible to tell the difference.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Sandpit said:

    With all the talk of people being asked to delete messages, I find it rather amusing that actually deleting them is even technically possible. There should be backups of backups of every message ever sent through government IT systems.

    Unless we are talking about WhatsApp messages on personal phones, but why are those allowed near No.10 in the first place?

    I don't think it is, but people in a panic are very likely to have an easily detected stab at it

    Apart from not understanding the tech, people have an odd delusion that what they do on computers is inaccessible in the same way the contents of their brain are. In the last 6 months people have been convicted of murder and of having sex with a dog, largely because they kept photos of the act on their phones

    I think whatsapp keeps backups in the background
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    HYUFD said:

    Further swing away from Labour with Yougov

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (-1)
    CON: 32% (=)
    LDM: 11% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 26-27 Jan.
    Changes w/ 20-21 Jan.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1487008778742550530?s=20&t=oQp2ZULDsTDqWYbcdIfb8g

    Gosh, yes. That's a huge swing away from Labour to the Tories, isn't it?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    Re Cummings I believe he has a blog and maybe it would interesting to see how he is responding to all this, even if he is saying anything

    He’ll be keeping his head very much down, and saying nothing to anyone except through a lawyer.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    Your daily dose of panic:

    Really worried about the direction things are moving in globally. BA.2 and BA.1.1. seem to be sweeping to dominance in different regions rapidly. Pandemic growth has also resumed in many places including England, & more recently Gauteng. A thread looking at the current evidence.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1487008788016205830?s=20&t=Z8J9CSc7jicE1E2OdBrcUg

    Oddly enough she neglects to mention that UK ICU occupancy is the lowest since July.....an oversight, I'm sure....

    She says: "To make things worse, UKHSA vaccine report paints a dire picture with vaccine efficacy"

    Really? "Dire"? This is just disinformation now surely?
    Repost. Short version - CDC study proves that boosters are awesome against Omicron.

    Since the US has a large population of unvaccinated*, this is a very useful study.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/01/unvaccinated-5x-more-likely-to-get-omicron-than-those-boosted-cdc-reports/

    image
    image
    image

    image
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    kinabalu said:

    Does the phrase "rule breaking events" (as denied by Johnson in Parliament) mean illegal or does it include the guidance? Or was all the relevant guidance also in law?

    Because I note the latest iteration is he wasn't aware of any events which "broke the law".

    Guidance is not the law. But he has I think said in Parliament that all the guidelines were followed. I strongly suspect that he - along with most of the police, many journalists and most of the country - doesn't understand the difference.
  • HYUFD said:

    Further swing away from Labour with Yougov

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (-1)
    CON: 32% (=)
    LDM: 11% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 26-27 Jan.
    Changes w/ 20-21 Jan.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1487008778742550530?s=20&t=oQp2ZULDsTDqWYbcdIfb8g

    Meh. Lab -1, LD +3 is not good for the Conservatives.
    Traffic light alliance at 56% so fairly clear what's likely to happen at next GE if that stays around the same level.

    It's a Goldilocks poll for Starmer - good enough to keep him on course but not so good that the conservatives would feel obliged to remove the man at the top.
  • HYUFD said:

    Further swing away from Labour with Yougov

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (-1)
    CON: 32% (=)
    LDM: 11% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 26-27 Jan.
    Changes w/ 20-21 Jan.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1487008778742550530?s=20&t=oQp2ZULDsTDqWYbcdIfb8g

    Gosh, yes. That's a huge swing away from Labour to the Tories, isn't it?
    I'm wondering why he didn't mention the thrice larger Con to LD swing?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    There is a significant issue in relation to the police investigation which seems to be getting little attention. The penalty for breaches of the Covid regulations was a fixed penalty fine in the first instance. Pre-Covid the police/procurator fiscal/CPS had 6 months in which to intiate proceedings in respect of a fixed penalty. In Scotland, and presumably in England as well, that period was extended to 12 months in the Covid regulations.

    This means, for example, that the police cannot charge anyone or issue any fixed penalties in relation to the alleged party on 20th May 2020. It is simply time barred. In which event why are the police investigating this at all and why is the supposed police investigation being allowed to interfere with Gray's report.

    Interesting and is that why the Met declined to investigate previously, and maybe only serious breaches of the law will now be investigated
    Destroying evidence and ordering same, for a start.

    Once again - if Sue Gray found evidence of possible illegality, did she have any other option than reporting to the police? And the police have no other option, but to ask that evidence is not published until they have completed their investigation.....
    I feel like I'm banging my head against a brick wall here. But once again - deleting stuff from your phone or email before any police investigation has started does not generally amount to perverting the course of justice. See what the CPS has to say on the topic.

    After it may do.

    People are jumping to conclusions. And if the offence was time barred so no prosecution could have happened in any case what "course of justice" could anyone have been perverting anyway? These are complicated matters.
    I have seen thinner defences than your "underlying defence is timebarred" one, but I haven't seen one succeed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited January 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Further swing away from Labour with Yougov

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (-1)
    CON: 32% (=)
    LDM: 11% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 26-27 Jan.
    Changes w/ 20-21 Jan.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1487008778742550530?s=20&t=oQp2ZULDsTDqWYbcdIfb8g

    Meh. Lab -1, LD +3 is not good for the Conservatives.
    It is in 95% of constituencies and certainly those outside of Remain areas in the South and SW London
  • Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Further swing away from Labour with Yougov

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (-1)
    CON: 32% (=)
    LDM: 11% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 26-27 Jan.
    Changes w/ 20-21 Jan.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1487008778742550530?s=20&t=oQp2ZULDsTDqWYbcdIfb8g

    You really are utterly ridiculous. You blather about opinion polls incessantly, but you expect us to believe you're so ignorant about them that you think a 1% change in one party's rating is evidence of a "swing"?

    You don't believe the rubbish you write any more than anyone else does.
    Actually it is his bible and yes, he does believe this nonsense
  • kinabalu said:

    Does the phrase "rule breaking events" (as denied by Johnson in Parliament) mean illegal or does it include the guidance? Or was all the relevant guidance also in law?

    Because I note the latest iteration is he wasn't aware of any events which "broke the law".

    Guidance is guidance not rules.

    The rules are the law.

    @Cyclefree and others have been excellent at that point throughout the pandemic.

    Forget about the pandemic for a second and think about eg alcohol. Guidance says don't drink more than 21 units per week for men. The law says don't have blood alcohol above a certain limit while driving. Drinking 22 units in a week is not a breach of the rules. Driving while intoxicated is.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    HYUFD said:

    Further swing away from Labour with Yougov

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (-1)
    CON: 32% (=)
    LDM: 11% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 26-27 Jan.
    Changes w/ 20-21 Jan.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1487008778742550530?s=20&t=oQp2ZULDsTDqWYbcdIfb8g

    But a whopping swing to the LDs...next.
    38% for Labour after the last 3 months is very poor
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310

    DavidL said:

    There is a significant issue in relation to the police investigation which seems to be getting little attention. The penalty for breaches of the Covid regulations was a fixed penalty fine in the first instance. Pre-Covid the police/procurator fiscal/CPS had 6 months in which to intiate proceedings in respect of a fixed penalty. In Scotland, and presumably in England as well, that period was extended to 12 months in the Covid regulations.

    This means, for example, that the police cannot charge anyone or issue any fixed penalties in relation to the alleged party on 20th May 2020. It is simply time barred. In which event why are the police investigating this at all and why is the supposed police investigation being allowed to interfere with Gray's report.

    Interesting and is that why the Met declined to investigate previously, and maybe only serious breaches of the law will now be investigated
    Destroying evidence and ordering same, for a start.

    Once again - if Sue Gray found evidence of possible illegality, did she have any other option than reporting to the police? And the police have no other option, but to ask that evidence is not published until they have completed their investigation.....
    Sue Gray seems to have been exemplary in this
    She's probably wishing she was back in that pub in Newry giving drinks to IRA men.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    Your daily dose of panic:

    Really worried about the direction things are moving in globally. BA.2 and BA.1.1. seem to be sweeping to dominance in different regions rapidly. Pandemic growth has also resumed in many places including England, & more recently Gauteng. A thread looking at the current evidence.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1487008788016205830?s=20&t=Z8J9CSc7jicE1E2OdBrcUg

    Oddly enough she neglects to mention that UK ICU occupancy is the lowest since July.....an oversight, I'm sure....

    She says: "To make things worse, UKHSA vaccine report paints a dire picture with vaccine efficacy"

    Really? "Dire"? This is just disinformation now surely?
    Repost. Short version - CDC study proves that boosters are awesome against Omicron.

    Since the US has a large population of unvaccinated*, this is a very useful study.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/01/unvaccinated-5x-more-likely-to-get-omicron-than-those-boosted-cdc-reports/

    image
    image
    image

    image
    She claims a VE of 80% against omicron - which is not the figure in your graph unless I am missing something.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    DavidL said:

    There is a significant issue in relation to the police investigation which seems to be getting little attention. The penalty for breaches of the Covid regulations was a fixed penalty fine in the first instance. Pre-Covid the police/procurator fiscal/CPS had 6 months in which to intiate proceedings in respect of a fixed penalty. In Scotland, and presumably in England as well, that period was extended to 12 months in the Covid regulations.

    This means, for example, that the police cannot charge anyone or issue any fixed penalties in relation to the alleged party on 20th May 2020. It is simply time barred. In which event why are the police investigating this at all and why is the supposed police investigation being allowed to interfere with Gray's report.

    Interesting and is that why the Met declined to investigate previously, and maybe only serious breaches of the law will now be investigated
    Destroying evidence and ordering same, for a start.

    Once again - if Sue Gray found evidence of possible illegality, did she have any other option than reporting to the police? And the police have no other option, but to ask that evidence is not published until they have completed their investigation.....
    Sue Gray seems to have been exemplary in this
    Yes, if the aim is an establishment stitch up which Sir Humphrey would have been proud of, then exemplary indeed.
    So Sue Gray should, potentially, break the law, to publish?

    It is my understanding that knowingly publishing material that may derail a prosecution like that, is itself an offence... PB lawyers?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    HYUFD said:

    Further swing away from Labour with Yougov

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (-1)
    CON: 32% (=)
    LDM: 11% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 26-27 Jan.
    Changes w/ 20-21 Jan.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1487008778742550530?s=20&t=oQp2ZULDsTDqWYbcdIfb8g

    But a whopping swing to the LDs...next.
    38% for Labour after the last 3 months is very poor
    Which is why the Tories, despite everything, can salvage a majority in 2024 with a new leader. Labour haven't sealed the deal with voters, but they don't want Boris to stay as PM.
  • Your daily dose of panic:

    Really worried about the direction things are moving in globally. BA.2 and BA.1.1. seem to be sweeping to dominance in different regions rapidly. Pandemic growth has also resumed in many places including England, & more recently Gauteng. A thread looking at the current evidence.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1487008788016205830?s=20&t=Z8J9CSc7jicE1E2OdBrcUg

    Oddly enough she neglects to mention that UK ICU occupancy is the lowest since July.....an oversight, I'm sure....

    She says: "To make things worse, UKHSA vaccine report paints a dire picture with vaccine efficacy"

    Really? "Dire"? This is just disinformation now surely?
    Repost. Short version - CDC study proves that boosters are awesome against Omicron.

    Since the US has a large population of unvaccinated*, this is a very useful study.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/01/unvaccinated-5x-more-likely-to-get-omicron-than-those-boosted-cdc-reports/

    image
    image
    image

    image
    She claims a VE of 80% against omicron - which is not the figure in your graph unless I am missing something.
    She's dishonest.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Sandpit said:

    With all the talk of people being asked to delete messages, I find it rather amusing that actually deleting them is even technically possible. There should be backups of backups of every message ever sent through government IT systems.

    Unless we are talking about WhatsApp messages on personal phones, but why are those allowed near No.10 in the first place?

    It is the request that would be the offence, it doesn't matter that the deleted item can be recovered later.

    I suspect that despite compelling evidence it will be determined that the threshold for a probable successful prosecution will be just missed. Not through conspiracy, but because that is the way the mechanics of the CPS work.
  • Paxlovid deployed in the UK from 10th February. Will be given to highest-risk groups including 'people who are immunocompromised, cancer patients or those with Down’s Syndrome', DHSC says. Will be delivered to homes of people who test +ve for covid or collected from NHS unit.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1487019768116822026?t=GIamVa3uIag02xUan1XeCw&s=19
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    edited January 2022

    Your daily dose of panic:

    Really worried about the direction things are moving in globally. BA.2 and BA.1.1. seem to be sweeping to dominance in different regions rapidly. Pandemic growth has also resumed in many places including England, & more recently Gauteng. A thread looking at the current evidence.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1487008788016205830?s=20&t=Z8J9CSc7jicE1E2OdBrcUg

    Oddly enough she neglects to mention that UK ICU occupancy is the lowest since July.....an oversight, I'm sure....

    She says: "To make things worse, UKHSA vaccine report paints a dire picture with vaccine efficacy"

    Really? "Dire"? This is just disinformation now surely?
    Repost. Short version - CDC study proves that boosters are awesome against Omicron.

    Since the US has a large population of unvaccinated*, this is a very useful study.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/01/unvaccinated-5x-more-likely-to-get-omicron-than-those-boosted-cdc-reports/

    image
    image
    image

    image
    She claims a VE of 80% against omicron - which is not the figure in your graph unless I am missing something.
    I have no idea - I am just pointing out what the CDC found. Given that this was a massive study, with a background of huge numbers of unvaccinated and partially vaccinated people to compare against, conducted by a highly respected medical organisation.....

    EDIT - I presume you are referring to the 5x for infections. Well, the CDC data seems to be showing that infections were about 250/100K for boosted, versus 1300/1000K for unvaccinated...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213
    edited January 2022
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    There is a significant issue in relation to the police investigation which seems to be getting little attention. The penalty for breaches of the Covid regulations was a fixed penalty fine in the first instance. Pre-Covid the police/procurator fiscal/CPS had 6 months in which to intiate proceedings in respect of a fixed penalty. In Scotland, and presumably in England as well, that period was extended to 12 months in the Covid regulations.

    This means, for example, that the police cannot charge anyone or issue any fixed penalties in relation to the alleged party on 20th May 2020. It is simply time barred. In which event why are the police investigating this at all and why is the supposed police investigation being allowed to interfere with Gray's report.

    Interesting and is that why the Met declined to investigate previously, and maybe only serious breaches of the law will now be investigated
    Destroying evidence and ordering same, for a start.

    Once again - if Sue Gray found evidence of possible illegality, did she have any other option than reporting to the police? And the police have no other option, but to ask that evidence is not published until they have completed their investigation.....
    I feel like I'm banging my head against a brick wall here. But once again - deleting stuff from your phone or email before any police investigation has started does not generally amount to perverting the course of justice. See what the CPS has to say on the topic.

    After it may do.

    People are jumping to conclusions. And if the offence was time barred so no prosecution could have happened in any case what "course of justice" could anyone have been perverting anyway? These are complicated matters.
    At a speed awareness course I attended, it was commented by the trainer that flashing your lights to warn an oncoming motorist of a speed trap ahead was illegal because it was perverting the course of justice. Smelling bullshit I asked if a man was running towards the trainer with a knife should I refrain from stopping him because I would be perverting the course of justice?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    DavidL said:

    There is a significant issue in relation to the police investigation which seems to be getting little attention. The penalty for breaches of the Covid regulations was a fixed penalty fine in the first instance. Pre-Covid the police/procurator fiscal/CPS had 6 months in which to intiate proceedings in respect of a fixed penalty. In Scotland, and presumably in England as well, that period was extended to 12 months in the Covid regulations.

    This means, for example, that the police cannot charge anyone or issue any fixed penalties in relation to the alleged party on 20th May 2020. It is simply time barred. In which event why are the police investigating this at all and why is the supposed police investigation being allowed to interfere with Gray's report.

    Interesting and is that why the Met declined to investigate previously, and maybe only serious breaches of the law will now be investigated
    Destroying evidence and ordering same, for a start.

    Once again - if Sue Gray found evidence of possible illegality, did she have any other option than reporting to the police? And the police have no other option, but to ask that evidence is not published until they have completed their investigation.....
    Sue Gray seems to have been exemplary in this
    Yes, if the aim is an establishment stitch up which Sir Humphrey would have been proud of, then exemplary indeed.
    So Sue Gray should, potentially, break the law, to publish?

    It is my understanding that knowingly publishing material that may derail a prosecution like that, is itself an offence... PB lawyers?
    More complicated than that. The rule doesn't apply until there's an arrest or a warrant or a charge against someone
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited January 2022

    Your daily dose of panic:

    Really worried about the direction things are moving in globally. BA.2 and BA.1.1. seem to be sweeping to dominance in different regions rapidly. Pandemic growth has also resumed in many places including England, & more recently Gauteng. A thread looking at the current evidence.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1487008788016205830?s=20&t=Z8J9CSc7jicE1E2OdBrcUg

    Oddly enough she neglects to mention that UK ICU occupancy is the lowest since July.....an oversight, I'm sure....

    She says: "To make things worse, UKHSA vaccine report paints a dire picture with vaccine efficacy"

    Really? "Dire"? This is just disinformation now surely?
    Repost. Short version - CDC study proves that boosters are awesome against Omicron.

    Since the US has a large population of unvaccinated*, this is a very useful study.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/01/unvaccinated-5x-more-likely-to-get-omicron-than-those-boosted-cdc-reports/

    image
    image
    image

    image
    She claims a VE of 80% against omicron - which is not the figure in your graph unless I am missing something.
    I have no idea - I am just pointing out what the CDC found. Given that this was a massive study, with a background of huge numbers of unvaccinated and partially vaccinated people to compare against, conducted by a highly respected medical organisation.....
    The claim is based on HSA report against the new Omicron sublineage, but the data is very preliminary and wide confidenc intervals.

    The iSAGE crowd still act as if you can realistically prevent the inevitable which is everybody is going to get exposed.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    HYUFD said:

    Further swing away from Labour with Yougov

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (-1)
    CON: 32% (=)
    LDM: 11% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 26-27 Jan.
    Changes w/ 20-21 Jan.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1487008778742550530?s=20&t=oQp2ZULDsTDqWYbcdIfb8g

    But a whopping swing to the LDs...next.
    38% for Labour after the last 3 months is very poor
    Oh of course, swing back to plus 12 for Johnson's Tories is on the way. Sorry, I forgot.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    IshmaelZ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    There is a significant issue in relation to the police investigation which seems to be getting little attention. The penalty for breaches of the Covid regulations was a fixed penalty fine in the first instance. Pre-Covid the police/procurator fiscal/CPS had 6 months in which to intiate proceedings in respect of a fixed penalty. In Scotland, and presumably in England as well, that period was extended to 12 months in the Covid regulations.

    This means, for example, that the police cannot charge anyone or issue any fixed penalties in relation to the alleged party on 20th May 2020. It is simply time barred. In which event why are the police investigating this at all and why is the supposed police investigation being allowed to interfere with Gray's report.

    Interesting and is that why the Met declined to investigate previously, and maybe only serious breaches of the law will now be investigated
    Destroying evidence and ordering same, for a start.

    Once again - if Sue Gray found evidence of possible illegality, did she have any other option than reporting to the police? And the police have no other option, but to ask that evidence is not published until they have completed their investigation.....
    I feel like I'm banging my head against a brick wall here. But once again - deleting stuff from your phone or email before any police investigation has started does not generally amount to perverting the course of justice. See what the CPS has to say on the topic.

    After it may do.

    People are jumping to conclusions. And if the offence was time barred so no prosecution could have happened in any case what "course of justice" could anyone have been perverting anyway? These are complicated matters.
    I have seen thinner defences than your "underlying defence is timebarred" one, but I haven't seen one succeed.
    Agreed. Which is why it is complicated. But the better point may be the first bullet point in the CPS extract I posted. If there was no investigation underway and no reasonable expectation of one because any offence was time barred, is there a "course of justice". Without one, the offence is not made out as a matter of law. You could not even charge.

    As I say complicated. A lot will depend on what was said, by whom and, crucially, when. And what the normal rules on deletion were. Plus what the people concerned routinely did re cleaning up phones / emails etc.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Off Topic, but good news. The ramping up of offshore wind in China is truly impressive:

    China now has nearly half of the world’s offshore wind capacity from TheEconomist https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/01/27/china-now-has-nearly-half-of-the-worlds-offshore-wind-capacity

    Still producing a lot of electricity from fossil fuels, but alongside their mass solar building, truly good news for the environment.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    edited January 2022
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    There is a significant issue in relation to the police investigation which seems to be getting little attention. The penalty for breaches of the Covid regulations was a fixed penalty fine in the first instance. Pre-Covid the police/procurator fiscal/CPS had 6 months in which to intiate proceedings in respect of a fixed penalty. In Scotland, and presumably in England as well, that period was extended to 12 months in the Covid regulations.

    This means, for example, that the police cannot charge anyone or issue any fixed penalties in relation to the alleged party on 20th May 2020. It is simply time barred. In which event why are the police investigating this at all and why is the supposed police investigation being allowed to interfere with Gray's report.

    Interesting and is that why the Met declined to investigate previously, and maybe only serious breaches of the law will now be investigated
    Destroying evidence and ordering same, for a start.

    Once again - if Sue Gray found evidence of possible illegality, did she have any other option than reporting to the police? And the police have no other option, but to ask that evidence is not published until they have completed their investigation.....
    Sue Gray seems to have been exemplary in this
    She's probably wishing she was back in that pub in Newry giving drinks to IRA men.
    Presumably not in "Magennis' Bar" - though the toilets are very spacious there, I understand.

    If you don't get the joke - it refers to another coverup.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Stocky said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    There is a significant issue in relation to the police investigation which seems to be getting little attention. The penalty for breaches of the Covid regulations was a fixed penalty fine in the first instance. Pre-Covid the police/procurator fiscal/CPS had 6 months in which to intiate proceedings in respect of a fixed penalty. In Scotland, and presumably in England as well, that period was extended to 12 months in the Covid regulations.

    This means, for example, that the police cannot charge anyone or issue any fixed penalties in relation to the alleged party on 20th May 2020. It is simply time barred. In which event why are the police investigating this at all and why is the supposed police investigation being allowed to interfere with Gray's report.

    Interesting and is that why the Met declined to investigate previously, and maybe only serious breaches of the law will now be investigated
    Destroying evidence and ordering same, for a start.

    Once again - if Sue Gray found evidence of possible illegality, did she have any other option than reporting to the police? And the police have no other option, but to ask that evidence is not published until they have completed their investigation.....
    I feel like I'm banging my head against a brick wall here. But once again - deleting stuff from your phone or email before any police investigation has started does not generally amount to perverting the course of justice. See what the CPS has to say on the topic.

    After it may do.

    People are jumping to conclusions. And if the offence was time barred so no prosecution could have happened in any case what "course of justice" could anyone have been perverting anyway? These are complicated matters.
    At a speed awareness course I attended, it was commented by the trainer that flashing your lights to warn an oncoming motorist of a speed trap ahead was illegal because it was perverting the course of justice. Smelling bullshit I asked if a man was running towards the trainer with a knife should I refrain from stopping him because I would be perverting the course of justice?
    He was right, there is a decision on the point

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1343959/Driver-flashed-headlights-warn-motorists-speed-trap-fined.html

    thoroughly bad decision in my view because flashing your lights should be parsed as an instruction to stick to the speed limit, and what is wrong with that?
  • Hmm.

    "Nazir Afzal, a former chief Crown prosecutor for the North West, said on Twitter: 'This is absolute nonsense from the Met Police. A purely factual report by Sue Gray cannot possibly prejudice a police investigation.

    'They just have to follow the evidence, of which the report will be a part.'

    Human rights barrister Adam Wagner, who has spent the pandemic interpreting complex coronavirus laws and explaining them to the public on social media, said on Twitter: 'I am not a criminal lawyer so perhaps I am missing something. How would a factual civil service report about events the police is investigating 'prejudice' their investigation?'

    The anonymous lawyer and author known as The Secret Barrister then added: 'I am a criminal lawyer, and I too must be missing something, because there is no reason I can see as to why an independent police criminal investigation would in any way be influenced by, or would seek to influence, a civil service report.'

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    HYUFD said:

    Further swing away from Labour with Yougov

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (-1)
    CON: 32% (=)
    LDM: 11% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 26-27 Jan.
    Changes w/ 20-21 Jan.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1487008778742550530?s=20&t=oQp2ZULDsTDqWYbcdIfb8g

    Meh. Lab -1, LD +3 is not good for the Conservatives.
    Traffic light alliance at 56% so fairly clear what's likely to happen at next GE if that stays around the same level.

    It's a Goldilocks poll for Starmer - good enough to keep him on course but not so good that the conservatives would feel obliged to remove the man at the top.
    Almost always Peter your words are very wise and insightful but, in this case, I think your analysis was wrong.

    First of all, what you are saying about it is good for Labour that BJ is kept in place is exactly the same sort of stuff that was being said about Starmer by the Tories 12 months post-the Batley and Spen by-election. More to the point, Johnson has a history of coming back from events that would kill off the careers of most others so you want him permanently gone, not just written off.

    Secondly, 38% for Labour at this point is absolutely dire given the circumstances, the flak Johnson has got etc etc. I haven't seen the sub-splits but what is becoming increasingly clear is that there is a small but crucial element of the Labour vote that has defected to the Greens post-Corbyn (as @BJO has said) on one hand and that Labour cannot convince much beyond its core base that it is worth voting for.


  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Some public spirited soul in Whitehall needs to take one for the team and leak Gray to the Daily Star.

    This fiasco has dragged on far too long already.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Some public spirited soul in Whitehall needs to take one for the team and leak Gray to the Daily Star.

    This fiasco has dragged on far too long already.

    Yes but - and the lawyers would know more here - presumably they would face the risk of prosecution for endangering an investigation?
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    There is a significant issue in relation to the police investigation which seems to be getting little attention. The penalty for breaches of the Covid regulations was a fixed penalty fine in the first instance. Pre-Covid the police/procurator fiscal/CPS had 6 months in which to intiate proceedings in respect of a fixed penalty. In Scotland, and presumably in England as well, that period was extended to 12 months in the Covid regulations.

    This means, for example, that the police cannot charge anyone or issue any fixed penalties in relation to the alleged party on 20th May 2020. It is simply time barred. In which event why are the police investigating this at all and why is the supposed police investigation being allowed to interfere with Gray's report.

    Interesting and is that why the Met declined to investigate previously, and maybe only serious breaches of the law will now be investigated
    Destroying evidence and ordering same, for a start.

    Once again - if Sue Gray found evidence of possible illegality, did she have any other option than reporting to the police? And the police have no other option, but to ask that evidence is not published until they have completed their investigation.....
    I feel like I'm banging my head against a brick wall here. But once again - deleting stuff from your phone or email before any police investigation has started does not generally amount to perverting the course of justice. See what the CPS has to say on the topic.

    After it may do.

    People are jumping to conclusions. And if the offence was time barred so no prosecution could have happened in any case what "course of justice" could anyone have been perverting anyway? These are complicated matters.
    At a speed awareness course I attended, it was commented by the trainer that flashing your lights to warn an oncoming motorist of a speed trap ahead was illegal because it was perverting the course of justice. Smelling bullshit I asked if a man was running towards the trainer with a knife should I refrain from stopping him because I would be perverting the course of justice?
    He was right, there is a decision on the point

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1343959/Driver-flashed-headlights-warn-motorists-speed-trap-fined.html

    thoroughly bad decision in my view because flashing your lights should be parsed as an instruction to stick to the speed limit, and what is wrong with that?
    Do we add this to the list of crap decisions by the Starmer led CPS?

    (For the avoidance of doubt I am obviously joking).
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Some public spirited soul in Whitehall needs to take one for the team and leak Gray to the Daily Star.

    This fiasco has dragged on far too long already.

    It'll be booby trapped so a leaker can be identified
  • Stocky said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    There is a significant issue in relation to the police investigation which seems to be getting little attention. The penalty for breaches of the Covid regulations was a fixed penalty fine in the first instance. Pre-Covid the police/procurator fiscal/CPS had 6 months in which to intiate proceedings in respect of a fixed penalty. In Scotland, and presumably in England as well, that period was extended to 12 months in the Covid regulations.

    This means, for example, that the police cannot charge anyone or issue any fixed penalties in relation to the alleged party on 20th May 2020. It is simply time barred. In which event why are the police investigating this at all and why is the supposed police investigation being allowed to interfere with Gray's report.

    Interesting and is that why the Met declined to investigate previously, and maybe only serious breaches of the law will now be investigated
    Destroying evidence and ordering same, for a start.

    Once again - if Sue Gray found evidence of possible illegality, did she have any other option than reporting to the police? And the police have no other option, but to ask that evidence is not published until they have completed their investigation.....
    I feel like I'm banging my head against a brick wall here. But once again - deleting stuff from your phone or email before any police investigation has started does not generally amount to perverting the course of justice. See what the CPS has to say on the topic.

    After it may do.

    People are jumping to conclusions. And if the offence was time barred so no prosecution could have happened in any case what "course of justice" could anyone have been perverting anyway? These are complicated matters.
    At a speed awareness course I attended, it was commented by the trainer that flashing your lights to warn an oncoming motorist of a speed trap ahead was illegal because it was perverting the course of justice. Smelling bullshit I asked if a man was running towards the trainer with a knife should I refrain from stopping him because I would be perverting the course of justice?
    Interesting ethical conundrum. Suppose a serial killer has killed nine people. It's only when he kills a tenth victim - getting careless and leaving some giveaway evidence - that he's apprehended by the police and convicted. If he hadn't killed the tenth he'd have gotten away Scot free. Is it ethically preferable for him to have killed the tenth victim or not?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Your daily dose of panic:

    Really worried about the direction things are moving in globally. BA.2 and BA.1.1. seem to be sweeping to dominance in different regions rapidly. Pandemic growth has also resumed in many places including England, & more recently Gauteng. A thread looking at the current evidence.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1487008788016205830?s=20&t=Z8J9CSc7jicE1E2OdBrcUg

    Oddly enough she neglects to mention that UK ICU occupancy is the lowest since July.....an oversight, I'm sure....

    And actually 'cases' in England are falling fractionally – not rising as she claims.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213
    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    There is a significant issue in relation to the police investigation which seems to be getting little attention. The penalty for breaches of the Covid regulations was a fixed penalty fine in the first instance. Pre-Covid the police/procurator fiscal/CPS had 6 months in which to intiate proceedings in respect of a fixed penalty. In Scotland, and presumably in England as well, that period was extended to 12 months in the Covid regulations.

    This means, for example, that the police cannot charge anyone or issue any fixed penalties in relation to the alleged party on 20th May 2020. It is simply time barred. In which event why are the police investigating this at all and why is the supposed police investigation being allowed to interfere with Gray's report.

    Interesting and is that why the Met declined to investigate previously, and maybe only serious breaches of the law will now be investigated
    Destroying evidence and ordering same, for a start.

    Once again - if Sue Gray found evidence of possible illegality, did she have any other option than reporting to the police? And the police have no other option, but to ask that evidence is not published until they have completed their investigation.....
    I feel like I'm banging my head against a brick wall here. But once again - deleting stuff from your phone or email before any police investigation has started does not generally amount to perverting the course of justice. See what the CPS has to say on the topic.

    After it may do.

    People are jumping to conclusions. And if the offence was time barred so no prosecution could have happened in any case what "course of justice" could anyone have been perverting anyway? These are complicated matters.
    At a speed awareness course I attended, it was commented by the trainer that flashing your lights to warn an oncoming motorist of a speed trap ahead was illegal because it was perverting the course of justice. Smelling bullshit I asked if a man was running towards the trainer with a knife should I refrain from stopping him because I would be perverting the course of justice?
    He was right, there is a decision on the point

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1343959/Driver-flashed-headlights-warn-motorists-speed-trap-fined.html

    thoroughly bad decision in my view because flashing your lights should be parsed as an instruction to stick to the speed limit, and what is wrong with that?
    Magistrates hmmm. Legally speaking, can this be used as a precedent in other cases?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    Your daily dose of panic:

    Really worried about the direction things are moving in globally. BA.2 and BA.1.1. seem to be sweeping to dominance in different regions rapidly. Pandemic growth has also resumed in many places including England, & more recently Gauteng. A thread looking at the current evidence.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1487008788016205830?s=20&t=Z8J9CSc7jicE1E2OdBrcUg

    Oddly enough she neglects to mention that UK ICU occupancy is the lowest since July.....an oversight, I'm sure....

    She says: "To make things worse, UKHSA vaccine report paints a dire picture with vaccine efficacy"

    Really? "Dire"? This is just disinformation now surely?
    Repost. Short version - CDC study proves that boosters are awesome against Omicron.

    Since the US has a large population of unvaccinated*, this is a very useful study.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/01/unvaccinated-5x-more-likely-to-get-omicron-than-those-boosted-cdc-reports/

    image
    image
    image

    image
    She claims a VE of 80% against omicron - which is not the figure in your graph unless I am missing something.
    I have no idea - I am just pointing out what the CDC found. Given that this was a massive study, with a background of huge numbers of unvaccinated and partially vaccinated people to compare against, conducted by a highly respected medical organisation.....
    The claim is based on HSA report against the new Omicron sublineage, but the data is very preliminary and wide confidenc intervals.

    The iSAGE crowd still act as if you can realistically prevent the inevitable which is everybody is going to get exposed.
    Which is why the CDC report is very useful - lots of unvaxxed people to gather data on. Hence smaller error bars. We seem to be a bit low on the unvaxxed in this country....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    Your daily dose of panic:

    Really worried about the direction things are moving in globally. BA.2 and BA.1.1. seem to be sweeping to dominance in different regions rapidly. Pandemic growth has also resumed in many places including England, & more recently Gauteng. A thread looking at the current evidence.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1487008788016205830?s=20&t=Z8J9CSc7jicE1E2OdBrcUg

    Oddly enough she neglects to mention that UK ICU occupancy is the lowest since July.....an oversight, I'm sure....

    And actually 'cases' in England are falling fractionally – not rising as she claims.
    Indeed

    image
    image
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Stocky said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    There is a significant issue in relation to the police investigation which seems to be getting little attention. The penalty for breaches of the Covid regulations was a fixed penalty fine in the first instance. Pre-Covid the police/procurator fiscal/CPS had 6 months in which to intiate proceedings in respect of a fixed penalty. In Scotland, and presumably in England as well, that period was extended to 12 months in the Covid regulations.

    This means, for example, that the police cannot charge anyone or issue any fixed penalties in relation to the alleged party on 20th May 2020. It is simply time barred. In which event why are the police investigating this at all and why is the supposed police investigation being allowed to interfere with Gray's report.

    Interesting and is that why the Met declined to investigate previously, and maybe only serious breaches of the law will now be investigated
    Destroying evidence and ordering same, for a start.

    Once again - if Sue Gray found evidence of possible illegality, did she have any other option than reporting to the police? And the police have no other option, but to ask that evidence is not published until they have completed their investigation.....
    I feel like I'm banging my head against a brick wall here. But once again - deleting stuff from your phone or email before any police investigation has started does not generally amount to perverting the course of justice. See what the CPS has to say on the topic.

    After it may do.

    People are jumping to conclusions. And if the offence was time barred so no prosecution could have happened in any case what "course of justice" could anyone have been perverting anyway? These are complicated matters.
    At a speed awareness course I attended, it was commented by the trainer that flashing your lights to warn an oncoming motorist of a speed trap ahead was illegal because it was perverting the course of justice. Smelling bullshit I asked if a man was running towards the trainer with a knife should I refrain from stopping him because I would be perverting the course of justice?
    He was right, there is a decision on the point

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1343959/Driver-flashed-headlights-warn-motorists-speed-trap-fined.html

    thoroughly bad decision in my view because flashing your lights should be parsed as an instruction to stick to the speed limit, and what is wrong with that?
    Magistrates hmmm. Legally speaking, can this be used as a precedent in other cases?
    Has persuasive but not binding authority I think
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779
    Stocky said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    There is a significant issue in relation to the police investigation which seems to be getting little attention. The penalty for breaches of the Covid regulations was a fixed penalty fine in the first instance. Pre-Covid the police/procurator fiscal/CPS had 6 months in which to intiate proceedings in respect of a fixed penalty. In Scotland, and presumably in England as well, that period was extended to 12 months in the Covid regulations.

    This means, for example, that the police cannot charge anyone or issue any fixed penalties in relation to the alleged party on 20th May 2020. It is simply time barred. In which event why are the police investigating this at all and why is the supposed police investigation being allowed to interfere with Gray's report.

    Interesting and is that why the Met declined to investigate previously, and maybe only serious breaches of the law will now be investigated
    Destroying evidence and ordering same, for a start.

    Once again - if Sue Gray found evidence of possible illegality, did she have any other option than reporting to the police? And the police have no other option, but to ask that evidence is not published until they have completed their investigation.....
    I feel like I'm banging my head against a brick wall here. But once again - deleting stuff from your phone or email before any police investigation has started does not generally amount to perverting the course of justice. See what the CPS has to say on the topic.

    After it may do.

    People are jumping to conclusions. And if the offence was time barred so no prosecution could have happened in any case what "course of justice" could anyone have been perverting anyway? These are complicated matters.
    At a speed awareness course I attended, it was commented by the trainer that flashing your lights to warn an oncoming motorist of a speed trap ahead was illegal because it was perverting the course of justice. Smelling bullshit I asked if a man was running towards the trainer with a knife should I refrain from stopping him because I would be perverting the course of justice?
    In your example, it would be more akin to warning the knife wielder that the police are outside after he has stabbed the trainer.
    I love the phrase "speed trap" BTW, as if enforcing the law is a form of entrapment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited January 2022
    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    Further swing away from Labour with Yougov

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (-1)
    CON: 32% (=)
    LDM: 11% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 26-27 Jan.
    Changes w/ 20-21 Jan.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1487008778742550530?s=20&t=oQp2ZULDsTDqWYbcdIfb8g

    Meh. Lab -1, LD +3 is not good for the Conservatives.
    Traffic light alliance at 56% so fairly clear what's likely to happen at next GE if that stays around the same level.

    It's a Goldilocks poll for Starmer - good enough to keep him on course but not so good that the conservatives would feel obliged to remove the man at the top.
    Almost always Peter your words are very wise and insightful but, in this case, I think your analysis was wrong.

    First of all, what you are saying about it is good for Labour that BJ is kept in place is exactly the same sort of stuff that was being said about Starmer by the Tories 12 months post-the Batley and Spen by-election. More to the point, Johnson has a history of coming back from events that would kill off the careers of most others so you want him permanently gone, not just written off.

    Secondly, 38% for Labour at this point is absolutely dire given the circumstances, the flak Johnson has got etc etc. I haven't seen the sub-splits but what is becoming increasingly clear is that there is a small but crucial element of the Labour vote that has defected to the Greens post-Corbyn (as @BJO has said) on one hand and that Labour cannot convince much beyond its core base that it is worth voting for.


    Yes, still near zero chance of a Labour majority under Starmer.

    He may still become PM in a hung parliament with the support of the LDs or SNP or both, however clearly voters are not making a positive vote for Starmer Labour as they did for Blair and New Labour pre 1997. Voters will not vote against Starmer as they did against Corbyn but they will not vote for Starmer either as they did for Blair.

    If he gets in it will be because of an anti Tory vote, not a pro Starmer vote, a bit like Biden-Harris got in in 2020 on an anti Trump vote and are already declining in popularity
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    HYUFD said:

    Further swing away from Labour with Yougov

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (-1)
    CON: 32% (=)
    LDM: 11% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 26-27 Jan.
    Changes w/ 20-21 Jan.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1487008778742550530?s=20&t=oQp2ZULDsTDqWYbcdIfb8g

    Gosh, yes. That's a huge swing away from Labour to the Tories, isn't it?

    Swing to the Liberals if anything! As @NickPalmer has insightfully noted, there's a real opportunity to being back tactical voting in a huge way as long as Labour and the Libs can resist the urge to be mean to each other and gloat when they score discrete victories.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    edited January 2022
    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Does the phrase "rule breaking events" (as denied by Johnson in Parliament) mean illegal or does it include the guidance? Or was all the relevant guidance also in law?

    Because I note the latest iteration is he wasn't aware of any events which "broke the law".

    Guidance is not the law. But he has I think said in Parliament that all the guidelines were followed. I strongly suspect that he - along with most of the police, many journalists and most of the country - doesn't understand the difference.
    It's an interesting point.

    With the enormous caveat of this being up to Tory MPs - and I doubt they'll remove him unless polls say they need to for their electoral prospects - I think the technical legalistic way to get him, if it does have a chance, is the Lying To Parliament angle.

    He told the House he had no prior knowledge of rule-breaking events. This (for me) includes guidance since in common parlance guidance + law = "the Rules".

    So unless Martin Reynolds is prepared to say either (i) that he didn't check the May 20th party with Johnson, or (ii) that he did but misrepresented it as being within the Rules, the Lying To Parliament charge sticks.

    This point won't be dropped by Starmer regardless of the shenanigans with Gray and the Met.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Paxlovid deployed in the UK from 10th February. Will be given to highest-risk groups including 'people who are immunocompromised, cancer patients or those with Down’s Syndrome', DHSC says. Will be delivered to homes of people who test +ve for covid or collected from NHS unit.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1487019768116822026?t=GIamVa3uIag02xUan1XeCw&s=19


    That is major news, and fantastic news. I wonder how much publicity it will get?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    kinabalu said:

    Does the phrase "rule breaking events" (as denied by Johnson in Parliament) mean illegal or does it include the guidance? Or was all the relevant guidance also in law?

    Because I note the latest iteration is he wasn't aware of any events which "broke the law".

    It seems to be an ever moveable feast, but without cake.
This discussion has been closed.