More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
This is becoming a very serious and divisive crisis for the EU
The EU has no security responsibility for the territorial integrity of member states because that's what Madeline Albright insisted on with the famous 'Three Ds' when she laid down the law to Blair and Chirac.
This crisis is just another crooked milestone, like Afghanistan and Trump's second term, on the road to the demise of NATO.
If NATO were wound down there'd need to be a Common European Defence capability, wouldn't there?
"NATO without the US and UK" is an interesting concept.
It's just the US, really, isn't it. If they pulled the plug I think we'd link with Europe. Can't see how we wouldn't. Not that I'm agreeing NATO is toast btw. I remain bullish on America detrumping and pulling itself together.
No chance, if the US decides it's done with NATO the UK would quickly follow suit.
I am not so sure that is true. We know that in a modern world the sorts of military threats that NATO was designed to challenge cannot generally be dealt with by one country. I suspect we would push for the rump NATO to be reconfigured and continue outside the EU structure perhaps still including Canada. There would also be the consideration that, as with the aberration that was the Trump administration, whichever President withdrew the US from NATO, would not be around for ever and that if NATO in some form still existed they could be tempted to rejoin.
NATO without the US is a wholly pointless organisation. Doesn't make sense at all for us at all. We'd be more likely to reformulate a mutual defence pact with Pacific allies and let the EU deal with Russia.
Defend the Pacific but not our own continent? This would be perverse.
I know! What are these people smoking? They must be high on Brexit.
European security is essential to British security. Cutting the continent free would be foolishness of the highest order.
Posting a bit early, before morning check going stick and non runners, I might sleep in if I get comfortable. I have fallen off horses so many times my back and hip not happy from time to time.
All three PB Racing Shrewdies tipped a winner last week, yours truly 2/4
I appreciate not every gambler loves sharing and sharing publicly. I suspect though some reading PB may be betting on horse racing regular particularly the Saturday coverage, I will be placing at least Lucky 15 today and means a degree of “due diligence” on my choices - I’m a open and honest girl I don’t mind sharing what led to my decision even if it likely a illegal mix of chemicals 😵💫
It’s my chance of contributing something back to the site actually 🙂 as I know nothing about anti tank drones, Epidemiology, chimpanzee testicles, or how 200 conservative PMs can collectively lose their spines at the same time.
My Lucky 15 today and my reasons
ASCOT - 13:45 - Stellar Magic (NAP) Secret weapon on my betting slip. Just the 4 races under rules in career so far, 2 wins at this distance.
HAYDOCK - 14:00 - Hunters Call Has form, but not like the favourite of this race, I’m betting against Tommys Oscar managing 4 in a row. I do such things sometimes. Maybe today it will work.
ASCOT - 14:55 - Amour De Nuit (LONG SHOT) Based on form in last race, and previous history for being there or thereabouts.
ASCOT - 15:35 - Amoola Gold (THE GIRLS LOST IT) Alcohol, Tranquillisers, pickled eggs, a bad back and bad night means I am overlooking its priced at 100-1? With a bit of looking into its history and there is no way it should be priced at that in this small field.
Good luck 🙋♀️
Good luck. Amour de Nuit is a non-runner btw. Hunters Call is 12 and Amoola Gold is, well, good luck.
My own tentative itv yankee is as follows but is subject to change:- Ascot 1.45 Fils d'Oudaries so against you there Ascot 2.20 Anything for Love Haydock 2.35 Empire Steel Ascot 2.55 Knight in Dubai
Thanks for mentioning the NR John.
I’ve gone with a clown to complete my Luck15. I might just leave it at that today as I can’t get my head round it. 🥱
But adding your itv Yankee to the usual Shrewdies there’s plenty of 🐎 tips in this thread today 🙂
Reynolds, two well-placed sources say, has been candid with Gray. “Reynolds is not willing to be the fall guy in all of this,” one government source said. “He’s talking and making his position very clear.” While the prime minister may feel determined to fight on, those around him are preparing for the fact that they may need to leave No 10.
I don't disagree with the historical complexities Nick but the fact is that a pusillaminous Germany is very likely to cause a hot war to break out in central Europe. If Germany was clear that the EU would back the Ukraine whatever it takes, SWIFT, munitions etc, it would be much less likely to happen. Of course Biden wittering about minor incursions being ok doesn't exactly help either.
Yes, Biden's comment was weird and dangerous - I can't imagine what he was thinking.
That said, the Russian strategic paranoia (which I think goes far beyond Putin's circle) is that the West wants to have an armed presence right up to their (shrunken) border, and they correctly note that Gorbachev was assured that we wouldn't expand Nato eastwards, and then we did it anyway. If we shovel weapons into Ukraine (which are hardly going to make a difference if Russia really does invade) and refuse to promise not to add Ukraine to Nato, it feeds the paranoia.
I absolutely think Nordstream should not be opened before the Russians pull back, and if they do it should be clear that it will be closed again if they resume menacing behaviour. But I don't think sending arms is sensible - the threat of economic sanctions, just starting with Nordstream, should be both more effective and less inflammatory. It would be good if Germany said that Nordstream will *never* be opened (not merely delayed) if Russia attacks Ukraine, but otherwise the German policy looks about right.
You have perfectly re-stated the position of those against re-armament in the 1930s.
Reynolds, two well-placed sources say, has been candid with Gray. “Reynolds is not willing to be the fall guy in all of this,” one government source said. “He’s talking and making his position very clear.” While the prime minister may feel determined to fight on, those around him are preparing for the fact that they may need to leave No 10.
More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
This is becoming a very serious and divisive crisis for the EU
The EU has no security responsibility for the territorial integrity of member states because that's what Madeline Albright insisted on with the famous 'Three Ds' when she laid down the law to Blair and Chirac.
This crisis is just another crooked milestone, like Afghanistan and Trump's second term, on the road to the demise of NATO.
If NATO were wound down there'd need to be a Common European Defence capability, wouldn't there?
"NATO without the US and UK" is an interesting concept.
It's just the US, really, isn't it. If they pulled the plug I think we'd link with Europe. Can't see how we wouldn't. Not that I'm agreeing NATO is toast btw. I remain bullish on America detrumping and pulling itself together.
No chance, if the US decides it's done with NATO the UK would quickly follow suit.
I am not so sure that is true. We know that in a modern world the sorts of military threats that NATO was designed to challenge cannot generally be dealt with by one country. I suspect we would push for the rump NATO to be reconfigured and continue outside the EU structure perhaps still including Canada. There would also be the consideration that, as with the aberration that was the Trump administration, whichever President withdrew the US from NATO, would not be around for ever and that if NATO in some form still existed they could be tempted to rejoin.
NATO without the US is a wholly pointless organisation. Doesn't make sense at all for us at all. We'd be more likely to reformulate a mutual defence pact with Pacific allies and let the EU deal with Russia.
Defend the Pacific but not our own continent? This would be perverse.
I know! What are these people smoking? They must be high on Brexit.
European security is essential to British security. Cutting the continent free would be foolishness of the highest order.
If Germany blocks defending Eastern Europe, then what should we do? It would seem rude to interfere in the transactions between Berlin and Moscow.
Basically its a mess. The Greens are constitutionally opposed to the deployment of German weapons abroad. The US is getting seriously impatient with both the Secretary of State and the head of the CIA delivering increasingly blunt messages. The Chancellor seems out of his depth and more focused on divisions in the SPD. The Germans are still dependent upon Russia for 45% of their gas. They have no LPG port and the Greens have serious reservations about importing gas gained from fracking anyway.
Leaderless, policy free, trying to please everyone but in fact pleasing no one.
I think we too easily attribute it mostly to worries about gas. The closer one is to the issue the more the historical complexities become apparent. Nationalist Ukranians see history as a long struggle for independence, finally achieved and now threatened once again. Nationalist Russians see Ukraine as separatists, and are baffled by talk of Crimea or East Ukraine themselves being separatists. Russians with family memories of WWII remember early Ukranian collaboration with the Nazis, and point to the toleration of armed neo-Nazi militia in Ukraine (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion). Ukranians with family memories of the 30s think of Stalin's Holodomor and near-national starvation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor).
Germans are conscious of the their history of genocidal aggression against both, and are really reluctant to get involved. It's hard to blame them.
Except they are getting involved to some extent - by putting roadblocks in the way if aid to Ukraine.
The fact stands that Putin is set to violate the UN Charter, again. This is not really a 'both sides' situation.
It reminds me of the Yugoslav wars - since the Serbians inherited much of the equipment of the Yugoslav Army, they were winning.
Thatcher was told, by the "diplomacy experts" that supplying are to the Croats etc would just be "Levelling the killing field".
So the futile talks carried on, while more and more territory was seized and more and more "ethnic cleansing" went on.
'Last week, I came across a scent called Stercus. Made by perfumer Allessandro Gualtieri, Stercus is Latin for dung. “He [Gualtieri] is eccentric to say the least,” said Daniel Williams of the PR agency. “You’resitting there at a press launch and when you ask him what the smell is based around, he tells you it’s his anus.”'
Curiously specific on the anus front. One wonders how he whittled it down to that specific pong.
More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
This is becoming a very serious and divisive crisis for the EU
The EU has no security responsibility for the territorial integrity of member states because that's what Madeline Albright insisted on with the famous 'Three Ds' when she laid down the law to Blair and Chirac.
This crisis is just another crooked milestone, like Afghanistan and Trump's second term, on the road to the demise of NATO.
If NATO were wound down there'd need to be a Common European Defence capability, wouldn't there?
"NATO without the US and UK" is an interesting concept.
It's just the US, really, isn't it. If they pulled the plug I think we'd link with Europe. Can't see how we wouldn't. Not that I'm agreeing NATO is toast btw. I remain bullish on America detrumping and pulling itself together.
No chance, if the US decides it's done with NATO the UK would quickly follow suit.
I am not so sure that is true. We know that in a modern world the sorts of military threats that NATO was designed to challenge cannot generally be dealt with by one country. I suspect we would push for the rump NATO to be reconfigured and continue outside the EU structure perhaps still including Canada. There would also be the consideration that, as with the aberration that was the Trump administration, whichever President withdrew the US from NATO, would not be around for ever and that if NATO in some form still existed they could be tempted to rejoin.
NATO without the US is a wholly pointless organisation. Doesn't make sense at all for us at all. We'd be more likely to reformulate a mutual defence pact with Pacific allies and let the EU deal with Russia.
Methinks your antipathy towards the EU is rather clouding your views here. Pragmatically when faced with an aggressive Eastern neighbour we have to engage with the EU countries in some form of defensive pact. That does not preclude also being involved in the Pacific but defending New Zealand against China does not help us defend ourselves against Russia.
More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
This is becoming a very serious and divisive crisis for the EU
The EU has no security responsibility for the territorial integrity of member states because that's what Madeline Albright insisted on with the famous 'Three Ds' when she laid down the law to Blair and Chirac.
This crisis is just another crooked milestone, like Afghanistan and Trump's second term, on the road to the demise of NATO.
If NATO were wound down there'd need to be a Common European Defence capability, wouldn't there?
"NATO without the US and UK" is an interesting concept.
It's just the US, really, isn't it. If they pulled the plug I think we'd link with Europe. Can't see how we wouldn't. Not that I'm agreeing NATO is toast btw. I remain bullish on America detrumping and pulling itself together.
No chance, if the US decides it's done with NATO the UK would quickly follow suit.
No we won't, that would be idiotic.
We would continue it with Canada, France, Poland, Turkey, Italy etc to contain Russia.
Though the Biden administration at least has committed the US to NATO again anyway
Biden's SECDEF Lloyd Austin has said the EU has to take the lead on the security of Europe, changing 20+ years of US policy on EU defence capabilities. They are a hell of lot more polite about it than the giant orange haemorrhoid but the long term strategy is similar: decouple from Europe and focus on challenging China in the Pacific.
Of course European taxpayers (like British ones) show little inclination to pay for such defence capabilities and the European politicians (like British ones) evince little competence or will to implement them.
Basically its a mess. The Greens are constitutionally opposed to the deployment of German weapons abroad. The US is getting seriously impatient with both the Secretary of State and the head of the CIA delivering increasingly blunt messages. The Chancellor seems out of his depth and more focused on divisions in the SPD. The Germans are still dependent upon Russia for 45% of their gas. They have no LPG port and the Greens have serious reservations about importing gas gained from fracking anyway.
Leaderless, policy free, trying to please everyone but in fact pleasing no one.
I think we too easily attribute it mostly to worries about gas. The closer one is to the issue the more the historical complexities become apparent. Nationalist Ukranians see history as a long struggle for independence, finally achieved and now threatened once again. Nationalist Russians see Ukraine as separatists, and are baffled by talk of Crimea or East Ukraine themselves being separatists. Russians with family memories of WWII remember early Ukranian collaboration with the Nazis, and point to the toleration of armed neo-Nazi militia in Ukraine (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion). Ukranians with family memories of the 30s think of Stalin's Holodomor and near-national starvation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor).
Germans are conscious of the their history of genocidal aggression against both, and are really reluctant to get involved. It's hard to blame them.
Except they are getting involved to some extent - by putting roadblocks in the way if aid to Ukraine.
The fact stands that Putin is set to violate the UN Charter, again. This is not really a 'both sides' situation.
It reminds me of the Yugoslav wars - since the Serbians inherited much of the equipment of the Yugoslav Army, they were winning.
Thatcher was told, by the "diplomacy experts" that supplying are to the Croats etc would just be "Levelling the killing field".
So the futile talks carried on, while more and more territory was seized and more and more "ethnic cleansing" went on.
Yes, I think Nick is being naive about Putin's aims, which appear to be the return of an independent nation to Russian vassal status.
NATO is a defensive organisation, which has never invaded a neighbour. Post soviet Russia, not so much.
Posting a bit early, before morning check going stick and non runners, I might sleep in if I get comfortable. I have fallen off horses so many times my back and hip not happy from time to time.
All three PB Racing Shrewdies tipped a winner last week, yours truly 2/4
I appreciate not every gambler loves sharing and sharing publicly. I suspect though some reading PB may be betting on horse racing regular particularly the Saturday coverage, I will be placing at least Lucky 15 today and means a degree of “due diligence” on my choices - I’m a open and honest girl I don’t mind sharing what led to my decision even if it likely a illegal mix of chemicals 😵💫
It’s my chance of contributing something back to the site actually 🙂 as I know nothing about anti tank drones, Epidemiology, chimpanzee testicles, or how 200 conservative PMs can collectively lose their spines at the same time.
My Lucky 15 today and my reasons
ASCOT - 13:45 - Stellar Magic (NAP) Secret weapon on my betting slip. Just the 4 races under rules in career so far, 2 wins at this distance.
HAYDOCK - 14:00 - Hunters Call Has form, but not like the favourite of this race, I’m betting against Tommys Oscar managing 4 in a row. I do such things sometimes. Maybe today it will work.
ASCOT - 14:55 - Amour De Nuit (LONG SHOT) Based on form in last race, and previous history for being there or thereabouts.
ASCOT - 15:35 - Amoola Gold (THE GIRLS LOST IT) Alcohol, Tranquillisers, pickled eggs, a bad back and bad night means I am overlooking its priced at 100-1? With a bit of looking into its history and there is no way it should be priced at that in this small field.
Good luck 🙋♀️
Good luck. Amour de Nuit is a non-runner btw. Hunters Call is 12 and Amoola Gold is, well, good luck.
My own tentative itv yankee is as follows but is subject to change:- Ascot 1.45 Fils d'Oudaries so against you there Ascot 2.20 Anything for Love Haydock 2.35 Empire Steel Ascot 2.55 Knight in Dubai
Thanks for mentioning the NR John.
I’ve gone with a clown to complete my Luck15. I might just leave it at that today as I can’t get my head round it. 🥱
But adding your itv Yankee to the usual Shrewdies there’s plenty of 🐎 tips in this thread today 🙂
Went for a walk on he beach to avoid reading the tedious cyclist-baiting that I felt certain would follow the earlier discussion. Right decision.
I once was very nearly hit by a cyclist at a pedestrian crossing near Elephant & Castle. The pedestrian phase was definitely green, but the cyclist didn't stop!
I don't disagree with the historical complexities Nick but the fact is that a pusillaminous Germany is very likely to cause a hot war to break out in central Europe. If Germany was clear that the EU would back the Ukraine whatever it takes, SWIFT, munitions etc, it would be much less likely to happen. Of course Biden wittering about minor incursions being ok doesn't exactly help either.
Yes, Biden's comment was weird and dangerous - I can't imagine what he was thinking.
That said, the Russian strategic paranoia (which I think goes far beyond Putin's circle) is that the West wants to have an armed presence right up to their (shrunken) border, and they correctly note that Gorbachev was assured that we wouldn't expand Nato eastwards, and then we did it anyway. If we shovel weapons into Ukraine (which are hardly going to make a difference if Russia really does invade) and refuse to promise not to add Ukraine to Nato, it feeds the paranoia.
I absolutely think Nordstream should not be opened before the Russians pull back, and if they do it should be clear that it will be closed again if they resume menacing behaviour. But I don't think sending arms is sensible - the threat of economic sanctions, just starting with Nordstream, should be both more effective and less inflammatory. It would be good if Germany said that Nordstream will *never* be opened (not merely delayed) if Russia attacks Ukraine, but otherwise the German policy looks about right.
100,000 Russian troops on the Ukraine border -- no problem! "Shovelling" weapons into Ukraine -- a provocation!
More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
This is becoming a very serious and divisive crisis for the EU
The EU has no security responsibility for the territorial integrity of member states because that's what Madeline Albright insisted on with the famous 'Three Ds' when she laid down the law to Blair and Chirac.
This crisis is just another crooked milestone, like Afghanistan and Trump's second term, on the road to the demise of NATO.
If NATO were wound down there'd need to be a Common European Defence capability, wouldn't there?
"NATO without the US and UK" is an interesting concept.
It's just the US, really, isn't it. If they pulled the plug I think we'd link with Europe. Can't see how we wouldn't. Not that I'm agreeing NATO is toast btw. I remain bullish on America detrumping and pulling itself together.
No chance, if the US decides it's done with NATO the UK would quickly follow suit.
No we won't, that would be idiotic.
We would continue it with Canada, France, Poland, Turkey, Italy etc to contain Russia.
Though the Biden administration at least has committed the US to NATO again anyway
Without the US, NATO is finished
To a reasonable first approximation, NATO is "the US, plus other like-minded countries it can persuade to go along" (or possibly, "the US and UK, plus...). NATO without the US is an absurdity.
Similarly, the EU to a reasonable first approximation, is "France and Germany, plus..." which is why "Frexit" is an absurdity.
Basically its a mess. The Greens are constitutionally opposed to the deployment of German weapons abroad. The US is getting seriously impatient with both the Secretary of State and the head of the CIA delivering increasingly blunt messages. The Chancellor seems out of his depth and more focused on divisions in the SPD. The Germans are still dependent upon Russia for 45% of their gas. They have no LPG port and the Greens have serious reservations about importing gas gained from fracking anyway.
Leaderless, policy free, trying to please everyone but in fact pleasing no one.
I think we too easily attribute it mostly to worries about gas. The closer one is to the issue the more the historical complexities become apparent. Nationalist Ukranians see history as a long struggle for independence, finally achieved and now threatened once again. Nationalist Russians see Ukraine as separatists, and are baffled by talk of Crimea or East Ukraine themselves being separatists. Russians with family memories of WWII remember early Ukranian collaboration with the Nazis, and point to the toleration of armed neo-Nazi militia in Ukraine (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion). Ukranians with family memories of the 30s think of Stalin's Holodomor and near-national starvation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor).
Germans are conscious of the their history of genocidal aggression against both, and are really reluctant to get involved. It's hard to blame them.
Except they are getting involved to some extent - by putting roadblocks in the way if aid to Ukraine.
The fact stands that Putin is set to violate the UN Charter, again. This is not really a 'both sides' situation.
It reminds me of the Yugoslav wars - since the Serbians inherited much of the equipment of the Yugoslav Army, they were winning.
Thatcher was told, by the "diplomacy experts" that supplying are to the Croats etc would just be "Levelling the killing field".
So the futile talks carried on, while more and more territory was seized and more and more "ethnic cleansing" went on.
Major surely?
Thatcher raised the issue quite forcefully - it was after she left office. Lord Turd was the one gassing on about killing fields. But backed by the Proper People across Europe.
Clinton was the one who said "fuck it" and armed the opposition to the Serbs.
More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
This is becoming a very serious and divisive crisis for the EU
The EU has no security responsibility for the territorial integrity of member states because that's what Madeline Albright insisted on with the famous 'Three Ds' when she laid down the law to Blair and Chirac.
This crisis is just another crooked milestone, like Afghanistan and Trump's second term, on the road to the demise of NATO.
If NATO were wound down there'd need to be a Common European Defence capability, wouldn't there?
"NATO without the US and UK" is an interesting concept.
It's just the US, really, isn't it. If they pulled the plug I think we'd link with Europe. Can't see how we wouldn't. Not that I'm agreeing NATO is toast btw. I remain bullish on America detrumping and pulling itself together.
No chance, if the US decides it's done with NATO the UK would quickly follow suit.
No US = No NATO and the question then is - would we turn away from the defence of Europe or be part of the European alternative? I think the latter. But I also think NATO still has legs.
No, I don't think we'd be part of any European defence pact. Firstly, I don't think we'd get the invite and secondly, it would be seen domestically as British taxpayers paying new money for defending rich European countries who don't want to pay for it.
If NATO is dissolved our interest in defending the Eastern border of Europe goes with it, we're not in the EU and that is now their problem. They like to tell us how much economic might they have, time for them to spend some of it on defending themselves.
Went for a walk on he beach to avoid reading the tedious cyclist-baiting that I felt certain would follow the earlier discussion. Right decision.
You saw 'cyclist-baiting'?
I saw a relatively polite discussion on the way a limited resource should be split between disparate users, and the rights and responsibilities each of those users have, and should show others.
Which is actually at the heart of much of politics.
Yes, the "what lights" and "the rest were on the pavement". Silliness, really, in response to an honest quantification of the problem.
Well, those are both problems with some cyclists, aren't they? I regularly see both (and (ahem) often do the latter, carefully).
Reynolds, two well-placed sources say, has been candid with Gray. “Reynolds is not willing to be the fall guy in all of this,” one government source said. “He’s talking and making his position very clear.” While the prime minister may feel determined to fight on, those around him are preparing for the fact that they may need to leave No 10.
If Reynolds is coming clean, actum est de cane magno, because the FFS don't have a party email was to him, and the danger was he would say Yebbut I decided not to trouble PM with such trivia.
More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
This is becoming a very serious and divisive crisis for the EU
The EU has no security responsibility for the territorial integrity of member states because that's what Madeline Albright insisted on with the famous 'Three Ds' when she laid down the law to Blair and Chirac.
This crisis is just another crooked milestone, like Afghanistan and Trump's second term, on the road to the demise of NATO.
If NATO were wound down there'd need to be a Common European Defence capability, wouldn't there?
"NATO without the US and UK" is an interesting concept.
It's just the US, really, isn't it. If they pulled the plug I think we'd link with Europe. Can't see how we wouldn't. Not that I'm agreeing NATO is toast btw. I remain bullish on America detrumping and pulling itself together.
No chance, if the US decides it's done with NATO the UK would quickly follow suit.
No we won't, that would be idiotic.
We would continue it with Canada, France, Poland, Turkey, Italy etc to contain Russia.
Though the Biden administration at least has committed the US to NATO again anyway
Biden's SECDEF Lloyd Austin has said the EU has to take the lead on the security of Europe, changing 20+ years of US policy on EU defence capabilities. They are a hell of lot more polite about it than the giant orange haemorrhoid but the long term strategy is similar: decouple from Europe and focus on challenging China in the Pacific.
Of course European taxpayers (like British ones) show little inclination to pay for such defence capabilities and the European politicians (like British ones) evince little competence or will to implement them.
Yes, hence European nations led by France and the UK as the greatest European military powers and aided by Poland, Turkey and Italy have to take the lead in containing Putin through NATO. That includes more defence spending.
We cannot rely on the US alone to do it. Even the Biden administration is focused more on containing China as you say, hence AUKUS. Trump if he wins in 2024 would focus solely on taking an aggressive stance with Communist China, Trump actually gets on with Putin however
More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
This is becoming a very serious and divisive crisis for the EU
The EU has no security responsibility for the territorial integrity of member states because that's what Madeline Albright insisted on with the famous 'Three Ds' when she laid down the law to Blair and Chirac.
This crisis is just another crooked milestone, like Afghanistan and Trump's second term, on the road to the demise of NATO.
If NATO were wound down there'd need to be a Common European Defence capability, wouldn't there?
"NATO without the US and UK" is an interesting concept.
It's just the US, really, isn't it. If they pulled the plug I think we'd link with Europe. Can't see how we wouldn't. Not that I'm agreeing NATO is toast btw. I remain bullish on America detrumping and pulling itself together.
No chance, if the US decides it's done with NATO the UK would quickly follow suit.
I am not so sure that is true. We know that in a modern world the sorts of military threats that NATO was designed to challenge cannot generally be dealt with by one country. I suspect we would push for the rump NATO to be reconfigured and continue outside the EU structure perhaps still including Canada. There would also be the consideration that, as with the aberration that was the Trump administration, whichever President withdrew the US from NATO, would not be around for ever and that if NATO in some form still existed they could be tempted to rejoin.
NATO without the US is a wholly pointless organisation. Doesn't make sense at all for us at all. We'd be more likely to reformulate a mutual defence pact with Pacific allies and let the EU deal with Russia.
Defend the Pacific but not our own continent? This would be perverse.
I know! What are these people smoking? They must be high on Brexit.
European security is essential to British security. Cutting the continent free would be foolishness of the highest order.
Johnson has civil servants working on a scheme to relocate the UK to approximately 23 deg S, 168 deg E between Australia and New Zealand. As usual, the Six Counties are a problem but Johnson has assured everyone that no British PM will put a border down the Tasman Sea.
More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
This is becoming a very serious and divisive crisis for the EU
The EU has no security responsibility for the territorial integrity of member states because that's what Madeline Albright insisted on with the famous 'Three Ds' when she laid down the law to Blair and Chirac.
This crisis is just another crooked milestone, like Afghanistan and Trump's second term, on the road to the demise of NATO.
If NATO were wound down there'd need to be a Common European Defence capability, wouldn't there?
"NATO without the US and UK" is an interesting concept.
It's just the US, really, isn't it. If they pulled the plug I think we'd link with Europe. Can't see how we wouldn't. Not that I'm agreeing NATO is toast btw. I remain bullish on America detrumping and pulling itself together.
No chance, if the US decides it's done with NATO the UK would quickly follow suit.
I am not so sure that is true. We know that in a modern world the sorts of military threats that NATO was designed to challenge cannot generally be dealt with by one country. I suspect we would push for the rump NATO to be reconfigured and continue outside the EU structure perhaps still including Canada. There would also be the consideration that, as with the aberration that was the Trump administration, whichever President withdrew the US from NATO, would not be around for ever and that if NATO in some form still existed they could be tempted to rejoin.
NATO without the US is a wholly pointless organisation. Doesn't make sense at all for us at all. We'd be more likely to reformulate a mutual defence pact with Pacific allies and let the EU deal with Russia.
Methinks your antipathy towards the EU is rather clouding your views here. Pragmatically when faced with an aggressive Eastern neighbour we have to engage with the EU countries in some form of defensive pact. That does not preclude also being involved in the Pacific but defending New Zealand against China does not help us defend ourselves against Russia.
Pragmatically I think the calculation is that what happens on the continent is no longer our problem. They've made it clear that it isn't our problem either, all throughout the Brexit negotiations they made it clear.
Went for a walk on he beach to avoid reading the tedious cyclist-baiting that I felt certain would follow the earlier discussion. Right decision.
I once was very nearly hit by a cyclist at a pedestrian crossing near Elephant & Castle. The pedestrian phase was definitely green, but the cyclist didn't stop!
Me too (though not in London). Same thing has happened with cars as well.
Johnson is thought to have sounded out Sir Lynton Crosby, who masterminded his two successful London mayoral campaigns. The pair fell out in 2019 in part, it was claimed, over Crosby’s concern at the “strong influence” of Johnson’s then girlfriend Carrie Symonds. Johnson is understood to have assured Crosby that if he came into government he would have a free hand to oversee the government’s political operations and would subject himself to “general election-style discipline”.
Crosby is understood to have reservations about leaving his business and is concerned that Johnson cannot be taken at his word. “Nobody thinks he would be disciplined in the long term so they’re worried about any commitment he makes,” said one source. “Changing how he operates is the number one thing he has to do. ‘It’s time to shit or get off the pot’ is how Lynton has put it to friends.” Crosby is also understood to have concerns that Johnson “may not survive” his current travails.
Is Crosby not really an expert in running electoral campaigns rather than government? A bit like Cummings in that respect. Not sure that is the answer. Boris needs a Peter Mandelson in the same way as Brown did. I am struggling to think who that could be, however. The best option would probably be Osborne but there is no chance he would do it.
Osborne ???
I know you're a fan but given his trail of fuckups and troughing ...
What you need is someone with common sense and a willingness to say NO.
You could start with seeing which Conservative MPs were opposed to the Paterson disaster.
Osborne was the key player in the coalition which gave this country excellent governance in very difficult times. He had no problem saying no either, indeed most criticisms were that he was rather too prone to do so. But its academic, he is making far too much money to be tempted back into politics.
Osborne was the Shadow Chancellor who failed to predict a recession which happened and the Chancellor whose budgets had a habit of disintegrating from a lack of proper presentation.
And when did Osborne ever say NO to anything he wanted to do ?
As to 'excellent governance' - it did some things well and made some useful changes but it also made many mistakes and sowed the sees of other problems.
Just like every other government to varying extents.
I am trying to recall any Chancellor ever who predicted a recession before it happened. Or a governor of the BoE either. It just isn't in the DNA of either the Treasury or the Bank to forecast things are going to go wrong.
Its standard practice for a SHADOW Chancellor to predict a recession and say that the government is following the wrong economic policies.
And that's what Osborne failed to do before 2008 - instead the recession and bank crash had him looking like a fawn in the headlights.
Reynolds, two well-placed sources say, has been candid with Gray. “Reynolds is not willing to be the fall guy in all of this,” one government source said. “He’s talking and making his position very clear.” While the prime minister may feel determined to fight on, those around him are preparing for the fact that they may need to leave No 10.
More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
This is becoming a very serious and divisive crisis for the EU
The EU has no security responsibility for the territorial integrity of member states because that's what Madeline Albright insisted on with the famous 'Three Ds' when she laid down the law to Blair and Chirac.
This crisis is just another crooked milestone, like Afghanistan and Trump's second term, on the road to the demise of NATO.
If NATO were wound down there'd need to be a Common European Defence capability, wouldn't there?
"NATO without the US and UK" is an interesting concept.
It's just the US, really, isn't it. If they pulled the plug I think we'd link with Europe. Can't see how we wouldn't. Not that I'm agreeing NATO is toast btw. I remain bullish on America detrumping and pulling itself together.
No chance, if the US decides it's done with NATO the UK would quickly follow suit.
No US = No NATO and the question then is - would we turn away from the defence of Europe or be part of the European alternative? I think the latter. But I also think NATO still has legs.
No, I don't think we'd be part of any European defence pact. Firstly, I don't think we'd get the invite and secondly, it would be seen domestically as British taxpayers paying new money for defending rich European countries who don't want to pay for it.
If NATO is dissolved our interest in defending the Eastern border of Europe goes with it, we're not in the EU and that is now their problem. They like to tell us how much economic might they have, time for them to spend some of it on defending themselves.
Russia is far more of a threat to us than China in terms of invasion.
On a forced choice I would pull out of AUKUS not NATO and let the US, Australia and Japan contain China.
Morning all in news that will delight @Dura_Ace and be no surprise at all to @IshmaelZ I am currently in A&E with a very large bump where my shoulder and collarbone usually are.
Given that I am dressed like a posho twat I fully expected them to refuse me treatment. But before I had finished the first draft of this post they had called me in to be triaged.
Painkillers with a reassuringly high street value mean that all is well in the world.
Texting facilities unaffected. And no one asked me for my vaccination status.
Went for a walk on he beach to avoid reading the tedious cyclist-baiting that I felt certain would follow the earlier discussion. Right decision.
I once was very nearly hit by a cyclist at a pedestrian crossing near Elephant & Castle. The pedestrian phase was definitely green, but the cyclist didn't stop!
Me too (though not in London). Same thing has happened with cars as well.
I have very rarely seen motor vehicles go through the middle of the red light sequence (or, indeed, more than a couple of seconds after the red light has come on.
'Last week, I came across a scent called Stercus. Made by perfumer Allessandro Gualtieri, Stercus is Latin for dung. “He [Gualtieri] is eccentric to say the least,” said Daniel Williams of the PR agency. “You’resitting there at a press launch and when you ask him what the smell is based around, he tells you it’s his anus.”'
Curiously specific on the anus front. One wonders how he whittled it down to that specific pong.
And how he managed to smell it for comparative purposes. Urgh.
More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
I get how the optics are terrible in making it look like Germany is taking Russia's side on this, but should we have requested flight paths over rather heavily populated northern Germany for planes stuffed with explosives?
Surely such flights should take the least populated route, just in case? If the Germans were sending similarly loaded planes to Dublin for some reason, I'd prefer them not to fly right over London.
There were plenty of ways the Germans could have assisted, but they chose not to.
Yes, it does look like they’re taking Putin’s side, being at best ambivalent to Russia advancing right to the border of the EU and NATO, if it means the gas for German heavy industry keeps flowing.
I just realised that the story linked to isn't about our flight paths; it's about Germany blocking weapons they sold to Estonia being supplied to Ukraine.
German naval chief says "need to do more" re offering alternatives & not just ltd resources or convincing govts re human rights.
"because China is giving money whether to dictators, to killers, to criminals. It doesn’t matter -- as long as they give their resources to China" "Russia threaten its neighbors with military force to prevent them leaving the Russian sphere of influence"
In Q&A says "Putin is probably putting pressure on [Ukraine] because he can do it," to split Europe & for respect What [Putin] really wants is respect...and, my God, giving someone respect is low cost, even no cost. So if I was asked...it is easy to even give him the respect he really demands and probably also deserves"
@tanvi_madan German naval chief: "we need Russia because we need Russia against China...From my perspective, I’m a very radical Roman Catholic. I’m believing in God & I believe in Christianity. & there we have a Christian country; even Putin, he’s an atheist but it doesn't matter" https://twitter.com/tanvi_madan/status/1484642943499649026
I believe that there’s even a multi faceted poster on here who has bummed up the defender of family values and scourge of woke Putin. Mad…
Morning all in news that will delight @Dura_Ace and be no surprise at all to @IshmaelZ I am currently in A&E with a very large bump where my shoulder and collarbone usually are.
Given that I am dressed like a posho twat I fully expected them to refuse me treatment. But before I had finished the first draft of this post they had called me in to be triaged.
Painkillers with a reassuringly high street value mean that all is well in the world.
Texting facilities unaffected. And no one asked me for my vaccination status.
Oh fuck, could be worse, collar bones are basically sacrificial parts
I had one of my twice yearly hedges days yesterday, happily intact.
Morning all in news that will delight @Dura_Ace and be no surprise at all to @IshmaelZ I am currently in A&E with a very large bump where my shoulder and collarbone usually are.
Given that I am dressed like a posho twat I fully expected them to refuse me treatment. But before I had finished the first draft of this post they had called me in to be triaged.
Painkillers with a reassuringly high street value mean that all is well in the world.
Texting facilities unaffected. And no one asked me for my vaccination status.
Oh fuck, could be worse, collar bones are basically sacrificial parts
I had one of my twice yearly hedges days yesterday, happily intact.
Excellent. It was one of those with a ditch away that did for me.
Morning all in news that will delight @Dura_Ace and be no surprise at all to @IshmaelZ I am currently in A&E with a very large bump where my shoulder and collarbone usually are.
Given that I am dressed like a posho twat I fully expected them to refuse me treatment. But before I had finished the first draft of this post they had called me in to be triaged.
Painkillers with a reassuringly high street value mean that all is well in the world.
Texting facilities unaffected. And no one asked me for my vaccination status.
Oh fuck, could be worse, collar bones are basically sacrificial parts
I had one of my twice yearly hedges days yesterday, happily intact.
Excellent. It was one of those with a ditch away that did for me.
They can be buggers
If you get grief over the dress tell them you are a historical reenactment enthusiast.
Difficult to see what the upside is for a potential new leader and their supporters to depose Johnson before the May elections.
The upside is it gets rid of Boris and gets the new leader in place. The paradox is that if the wannabe new leader waits for the party's ratings to rebound, then that upswing will help cement the old leader in place.
And they were right to try.
But they have failed. The coup smashed into a brick wall of just how popular Boris still is on the back benches,
Did I wake up in another time zone?
You have decided that it has already failed on the basis that Boris is so popular 'still' on the back benches? Then I'm afraid you have no knowledge of the Conservative Party in parliament. He has never been popular on the back benches and he's deeply unpopular among them right now. Throwing Owen Paterson under the bus was the final straw for those few left who were still loyal.
Most tory MPs know it's only a matter of time until Johnson is ousted.
While I would tend to doubt that Johnson is popular on the backbenches, how can you claim with such confidence that you ‘know’ it and @MoonRabbit ’knows nothing about the [Tories]?’
Are you one yourself? Or married to one? Or a member of Brady’s staff?
If not I would advise you to consider the far more sensible comment of @pigeon above: ‘We can't know exactly what's going on with vacillating Conservative backbenchers.’
“how can you claim with such confidence that you ‘know’ it and @MoonRabbit ’knows nothing about the [Tories]?’”
Thank you Doctor Y. Tories gave birth to me and I go to bed with one.
My original post got no likes, and all those attacking it got lots 😆
Despite reading all replies, I stand by my original post. To my mind, the letters haven’t gone in because they are not nearly close enough to winning the VONC. We all need to consider this as the main reason for the stalemate. Add to that, since Sunak sat next to Boris at PMQs we have heard little from Cummings and nothing from Norman. Moment of peak danger May even have passed.
Those who don’t like it don’t want to hear the idea that this attack will blow over and Boris recover to majority retaining levels at the GE. We don’t want to hear this, but no one knows for certain it isn’t true. For the voters who backed him last time, Brexit delivered, covid beaten, levelling up ongoing. Add in uneasiness about switching to an opposition parties economic ideas and running the country - that’s why next election result can still be 1992 all over again.
I stand by my reasoning why a coup was tried (nothing to do with parties. And why it failed - a manufactured attack like this crashed into the fact his time isn’t up yet, because he is not under any pressure at all from back benchers, voters, cabinet colleagues or his newspapers for lack of delivery.
We need to see past Partygate to see Boris underlying appeal is still there.
More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
This is becoming a very serious and divisive crisis for the EU
The EU has no security responsibility for the territorial integrity of member states because that's what Madeline Albright insisted on with the famous 'Three Ds' when she laid down the law to Blair and Chirac.
This crisis is just another crooked milestone, like Afghanistan and Trump's second term, on the road to the demise of NATO.
If NATO were wound down there'd need to be a Common European Defence capability, wouldn't there?
"NATO without the US and UK" is an interesting concept.
It's just the US, really, isn't it. If they pulled the plug I think we'd link with Europe. Can't see how we wouldn't. Not that I'm agreeing NATO is toast btw. I remain bullish on America detrumping and pulling itself together.
No chance, if the US decides it's done with NATO the UK would quickly follow suit.
I am not so sure that is true. We know that in a modern world the sorts of military threats that NATO was designed to challenge cannot generally be dealt with by one country. I suspect we would push for the rump NATO to be reconfigured and continue outside the EU structure perhaps still including Canada. There would also be the consideration that, as with the aberration that was the Trump administration, whichever President withdrew the US from NATO, would not be around for ever and that if NATO in some form still existed they could be tempted to rejoin.
NATO without the US is a wholly pointless organisation. Doesn't make sense at all for us at all. We'd be more likely to reformulate a mutual defence pact with Pacific allies and let the EU deal with Russia.
Methinks your antipathy towards the EU is rather clouding your views here. Pragmatically when faced with an aggressive Eastern neighbour we have to engage with the EU countries in some form of defensive pact. That does not preclude also being involved in the Pacific but defending New Zealand against China does not help us defend ourselves against Russia.
Pragmatically I think the calculation is that what happens on the continent is no longer our problem. They've made it clear that it isn't our problem either, all throughout the Brexit negotiations they made it clear.
But why is the Pacific or anywhere else our problem? If this is the mindset the logical policy is surely to opt out, slash the military, be neutral.
Morning all in news that will delight @Dura_Ace and be no surprise at all to @IshmaelZ I am currently in A&E with a very large bump where my shoulder and collarbone usually are.
Given that I am dressed like a posho twat I fully expected them to refuse me treatment. But before I had finished the first draft of this post they had called me in to be triaged.
Painkillers with a reassuringly high street value mean that all is well in the world.
Texting facilities unaffected. And no one asked me for my vaccination status.
Oh fuck, could be worse, collar bones are basically sacrificial parts
I had one of my twice yearly hedges days yesterday, happily intact.
Excellent. It was one of those with a ditch away that did for me.
They can be buggers
If you get grief over the dress tell them you are a historical reenactment enthusiast.
More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
I get how the optics are terrible in making it look like Germany is taking Russia's side on this, but should we have requested flight paths over rather heavily populated northern Germany for planes stuffed with explosives?
Surely such flights should take the least populated route, just in case? If the Germans were sending similarly loaded planes to Dublin for some reason, I'd prefer them not to fly right over London.
There were plenty of ways the Germans could have assisted, but they chose not to.
Yes, it does look like they’re taking Putin’s side, being at best ambivalent to Russia advancing right to the border of the EU and NATO, if it means the gas for German heavy industry keeps flowing.
I just realised that the story linked to isn't about our flight paths; it's about Germany blocking weapons they sold to Estonia being supplied to Ukraine.
German naval chief says "need to do more" re offering alternatives & not just ltd resources or convincing govts re human rights.
"because China is giving money whether to dictators, to killers, to criminals. It doesn’t matter -- as long as they give their resources to China" "Russia threaten its neighbors with military force to prevent them leaving the Russian sphere of influence"
In Q&A says "Putin is probably putting pressure on [Ukraine] because he can do it," to split Europe & for respect What [Putin] really wants is respect...and, my God, giving someone respect is low cost, even no cost. So if I was asked...it is easy to even give him the respect he really demands and probably also deserves"
@tanvi_madan German naval chief: "we need Russia because we need Russia against China...From my perspective, I’m a very radical Roman Catholic. I’m believing in God & I believe in Christianity. & there we have a Christian country; even Putin, he’s an atheist but it doesn't matter" https://twitter.com/tanvi_madan/status/1484642943499649026
I believe that there’s even a multi faceted poster on here who has bummed up the defender of family values and scourge of woke Putin. Mad…
Morning all in news that will delight @Dura_Ace and be no surprise at all to @IshmaelZ I am currently in A&E with a very large bump where my shoulder and collarbone usually are.
Given that I am dressed like a posho twat I fully expected them to refuse me treatment. But before I had finished the first draft of this post they had called me in to be triaged.
Painkillers with a reassuringly high street value mean that all is well in the world.
Texting facilities unaffected. And no one asked me for my vaccination status.
Oh fuck, could be worse, collar bones are basically sacrificial parts
I had one of my twice yearly hedges days yesterday, happily intact.
Excellent. It was one of those with a ditch away that did for me.
I happily send get well hugs Topping 🤗 But like Dura Ace, your tough as old boots and don’t need restorative hugs from me?
Morning all in news that will delight @Dura_Ace and be no surprise at all to @IshmaelZ I am currently in A&E with a very large bump where my shoulder and collarbone usually are.
Given that I am dressed like a posho twat I fully expected them to refuse me treatment. But before I had finished the first draft of this post they had called me in to be triaged.
Painkillers with a reassuringly high street value mean that all is well in the world.
Texting facilities unaffected. And no one asked me for my vaccination status.
Oh fuck, could be worse, collar bones are basically sacrificial parts
I had one of my twice yearly hedges days yesterday, happily intact.
Excellent. It was one of those with a ditch away that did for me.
I happily send get well hugs Topping 🤗 But like Dura Ace, your tough as old boots and don’t need restorative hugs from me?
Went for a walk on he beach to avoid reading the tedious cyclist-baiting that I felt certain would follow the earlier discussion. Right decision.
I once was very nearly hit by a cyclist at a pedestrian crossing near Elephant & Castle. The pedestrian phase was definitely green, but the cyclist didn't stop!
Me too (though not in London). Same thing has happened with cars as well.
I have very rarely seen motor vehicles go through the middle of the red light sequence (or, indeed, more than a couple of seconds after the red light has come on.
Cyclists? Not so rare.
Really? You should get out more. I've seen it aplenty. And even more so zebra crossings, if we can move away from just red lights.
To reiterate the fact that I dropped in earlier: 71% of injuries to pedestrians at crossings are caused by cars. 4% by cyclists. There's probably lots of analysis you could do here about passenger miles etc, but at the least it shows that yes, cars do run lights and similar, and with consequences too. The problem is people going when they should stop. Anyone trying to pretend it's all just one group of people like cyclists or car drivers is engaging in low-quality trolling rather than being helpful.
Basically its a mess. The Greens are constitutionally opposed to the deployment of German weapons abroad. The US is getting seriously impatient with both the Secretary of State and the head of the CIA delivering increasingly blunt messages. The Chancellor seems out of his depth and more focused on divisions in the SPD. The Germans are still dependent upon Russia for 45% of their gas. They have no LPG port and the Greens have serious reservations about importing gas gained from fracking anyway.
Leaderless, policy free, trying to please everyone but in fact pleasing no one.
I think we too easily attribute it mostly to worries about gas. The closer one is to the issue the more the historical complexities become apparent. Nationalist Ukranians see history as a long struggle for independence, finally achieved and now threatened once again. Nationalist Russians see Ukraine as separatists, and are baffled by talk of Crimea or East Ukraine themselves being separatists. Russians with family memories of WWII remember early Ukranian collaboration with the Nazis, and point to the toleration of armed neo-Nazi militia in Ukraine (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion). Ukranians with family memories of the 30s think of Stalin's Holodomor and near-national starvation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor).
Germans are conscious of the their history of genocidal aggression against both, and are really reluctant to get involved. It's hard to blame them.
Except they are getting involved to some extent - by putting roadblocks in the way if aid to Ukraine.
The fact stands that Putin is set to violate the UN Charter, again. This is not really a 'both sides' situation.
By comparuson the UK and Canada have trained around 30k Ukranian personnel in toto between 2015 and now with a staff of several hundred in theatre.
They continued with the contract *after* Ukraine and been invaded and occupied in 2014, and it was only stopped by EU sanctions later.
There have been other contracts.
Meanwhile, whilst Ukrainian soldiers are being killed by cross-border drone attacks and sniping, they have been stopping shipment of anti-drone and anti-sniper systems to Ukraine by other NATO allies. Under a policy of 'preventing escalation by keeping arms out of the area'.
So, Germany has been equipping the aggressor, and weakening the victim. Plus taking many steps during Merkel's time which made them weaker and weaker vis a vis Russia.
Which is hard to forgive imo.
To me an historical analogy is the UK and French Governments withdrawing support from the Czech Govt in 1938 because of our own political / military position, and forcing them to accept German invasion of the Sudetenland.
At least we have arguably learnt the damned lesson.
Posting a bit early, before morning check going stick and non runners, I might sleep in if I get comfortable. I have fallen off horses so many times my back and hip not happy from time to time.
All three PB Racing Shrewdies tipped a winner last week, yours truly 2/4
I appreciate not every gambler loves sharing and sharing publicly. I suspect though some reading PB may be betting on horse racing regular particularly the Saturday coverage, I will be placing at least Lucky 15 today and means a degree of “due diligence” on my choices - I’m a open and honest girl I don’t mind sharing what led to my decision even if it likely a illegal mix of chemicals 😵💫
It’s my chance of contributing something back to the site actually 🙂 as I know nothing about anti tank drones, Epidemiology, chimpanzee testicles, or how 200 conservative PMs can collectively lose their spines at the same time.
My Lucky 15 today and my reasons
ASCOT - 13:45 - Stellar Magic (NAP) Secret weapon on my betting slip. Just the 4 races under rules in career so far, 2 wins at this distance.
HAYDOCK - 14:00 - Hunters Call Has form, but not like the favourite of this race, I’m betting against Tommys Oscar managing 4 in a row. I do such things sometimes. Maybe today it will work.
ASCOT - 14:55 - Amour De Nuit (LONG SHOT) Based on form in last race, and previous history for being there or thereabouts.
ASCOT - 15:35 - Amoola Gold (THE GIRLS LOST IT) Alcohol, Tranquillisers, pickled eggs, a bad back and bad night means I am overlooking its priced at 100-1? With a bit of looking into its history and there is no way it should be priced at that in this small field.
Good luck 🙋♀️
Good luck. Amour de Nuit is a non-runner btw. Hunters Call is 12 and Amoola Gold is, well, good luck.
My own tentative itv yankee is as follows but is subject to change:- Ascot 1.45 Fils d'Oudaries so against you there Ascot 2.20 Anything for Love Haydock 2.35 Empire Steel Ascot 2.55 Knight in Dubai
Thanks for mentioning the NR John.
I’ve gone with a clown to complete my Luck15. I might just leave it at that today as I can’t get my head round it. 🥱
But adding your itv Yankee to the usual Shrewdies there’s plenty of 🐎 tips in this thread today 🙂
More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
I get how the optics are terrible in making it look like Germany is taking Russia's side on this, but should we have requested flight paths over rather heavily populated northern Germany for planes stuffed with explosives?
Surely such flights should take the least populated route, just in case? If the Germans were sending similarly loaded planes to Dublin for some reason, I'd prefer them not to fly right over London.
There were plenty of ways the Germans could have assisted, but they chose not to.
Yes, it does look like they’re taking Putin’s side, being at best ambivalent to Russia advancing right to the border of the EU and NATO, if it means the gas for German heavy industry keeps flowing.
I just realised that the story linked to isn't about our flight paths; it's about Germany blocking weapons they sold to Estonia being supplied to Ukraine.
German naval chief says "need to do more" re offering alternatives & not just ltd resources or convincing govts re human rights.
"because China is giving money whether to dictators, to killers, to criminals. It doesn’t matter -- as long as they give their resources to China" "Russia threaten its neighbors with military force to prevent them leaving the Russian sphere of influence"
In Q&A says "Putin is probably putting pressure on [Ukraine] because he can do it," to split Europe & for respect What [Putin] really wants is respect...and, my God, giving someone respect is low cost, even no cost. So if I was asked...it is easy to even give him the respect he really demands and probably also deserves"
@tanvi_madan German naval chief: "we need Russia because we need Russia against China...From my perspective, I’m a very radical Roman Catholic. I’m believing in God & I believe in Christianity. & there we have a Christian country; even Putin, he’s an atheist but it doesn't matter" https://twitter.com/tanvi_madan/status/1484642943499649026
I believe that there’s even a multi faceted poster on here who has bummed up the defender of family values and scourge of woke Putin. Mad…
Yes indeed. He might be an existential threat to peace in Europe but he's a cultural commentator of astonishing range and power.
I thought Brexiteers loved Europe, just not the EU... or at least so they proclaimed during the referendum. Yet they seem happy to leave it to Russia's devices.
This is a more serious matter still than the PM lying to Parliament. It's outright corruption.
When you quoted the law on blackmail, I didn't read it properly and posted a nonsensical kneejerk reaction.
Just out of interest, did anyone manage to explain how it was possible to convict, except purely through the jury being convinced the defendant was lying?
I don't disagree with the historical complexities Nick but the fact is that a pusillaminous Germany is very likely to cause a hot war to break out in central Europe. If Germany was clear that the EU would back the Ukraine whatever it takes, SWIFT, munitions etc, it would be much less likely to happen. Of course Biden wittering about minor incursions being ok doesn't exactly help either.
Yes, Biden's comment was weird and dangerous - I can't imagine what he was thinking.
That said, the Russian strategic paranoia (which I think goes far beyond Putin's circle) is that the West wants to have an armed presence right up to their (shrunken) border, and they correctly note that Gorbachev was assured that we wouldn't expand Nato eastwards, and then we did it anyway. If we shovel weapons into Ukraine (which are hardly going to make a difference if Russia really does invade) and refuse to promise not to add Ukraine to Nato, it feeds the paranoia.
I absolutely think Nordstream should not be opened before the Russians pull back, and if they do it should be clear that it will be closed again if they resume menacing behaviour. But I don't think sending arms is sensible - the threat of economic sanctions, just starting with Nordstream, should be both more effective and less inflammatory. It would be good if Germany said that Nordstream will *never* be opened (not merely delayed) if Russia attacks Ukraine, but otherwise the German policy looks about right.
100,000 Russian troops on the Ukraine border -- no problem! "Shovelling" weapons into Ukraine -- a provocation!
Yes, there are some surprising takes on this story which buy, seemingly unintentionally, into Russian propaganda points, by treating responses like Ukraine seeking help arming itself against attack as equivalent to Russia already having invaded several parts of Ukraine, and building up massive forces on the border which, at the very least, is a threat to invade even more. Those things are not equivalent, but that is the implication - that will be denied, but the style is always the same 'Oh, X is wrong...but lesser thing Y in response to Y is about the same as doing X'.
It's analogous as to when people talk about not escalating things with China, which is all very well and good, and reference Imperial activities from the late 19th and and early 20th centuries, which is just repeating CCP talking points and, while history is important, are not relevant as a defence of China taking hostile or provocative stances now.
I thought Brexiteers loved Europe, just not the EU... or at least so they proclaimed during the referendum. Yet they seem happy to leave it to Russia's devices.
Which Brexiteers are these?
UK Brexit Government doesn't seem to be doing that...
More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
I get how the optics are terrible in making it look like Germany is taking Russia's side on this, but should we have requested flight paths over rather heavily populated northern Germany for planes stuffed with explosives?
Surely such flights should take the least populated route, just in case? If the Germans were sending similarly loaded planes to Dublin for some reason, I'd prefer them not to fly right over London.
There were plenty of ways the Germans could have assisted, but they chose not to.
Yes, it does look like they’re taking Putin’s side, being at best ambivalent to Russia advancing right to the border of the EU and NATO, if it means the gas for German heavy industry keeps flowing.
I just realised that the story linked to isn't about our flight paths; it's about Germany blocking weapons they sold to Estonia being supplied to Ukraine.
German naval chief says "need to do more" re offering alternatives & not just ltd resources or convincing govts re human rights.
"because China is giving money whether to dictators, to killers, to criminals. It doesn’t matter -- as long as they give their resources to China" "Russia threaten its neighbors with military force to prevent them leaving the Russian sphere of influence"
In Q&A says "Putin is probably putting pressure on [Ukraine] because he can do it," to split Europe & for respect What [Putin] really wants is respect...and, my God, giving someone respect is low cost, even no cost. So if I was asked...it is easy to even give him the respect he really demands and probably also deserves"
@tanvi_madan German naval chief: "we need Russia because we need Russia against China...From my perspective, I’m a very radical Roman Catholic. I’m believing in God & I believe in Christianity. & there we have a Christian country; even Putin, he’s an atheist but it doesn't matter" https://twitter.com/tanvi_madan/status/1484642943499649026
I believe that there’s even a multi faceted poster on here who has bummed up the defender of family values and scourge of woke Putin. Mad…
Is that a cryptic crossword clue ?
Alone, headless and disorganised in Spain (4 letters)
Difficult to see what the upside is for a potential new leader and their supporters to depose Johnson before the May elections.
The upside is it gets rid of Boris and gets the new leader in place. The paradox is that if the wannabe new leader waits for the party's ratings to rebound, then that upswing will help cement the old leader in place.
And they were right to try.
But they have failed. The coup smashed into a brick wall of just how popular Boris still is on the back benches,
Did I wake up in another time zone?
You have decided that it has already failed on the basis that Boris is so popular 'still' on the back benches? Then I'm afraid you have no knowledge of the Conservative Party in parliament. He has never been popular on the back benches and he's deeply unpopular among them right now. Throwing Owen Paterson under the bus was the final straw for those few left who were still loyal.
Most tory MPs know it's only a matter of time until Johnson is ousted.
While I would tend to doubt that Johnson is popular on the backbenches, how can you claim with such confidence that you ‘know’ it and @MoonRabbit ’knows nothing about the [Tories]?’
Are you one yourself? Or married to one? Or a member of Brady’s staff?
If not I would advise you to consider the far more sensible comment of @pigeon above: ‘We can't know exactly what's going on with vacillating Conservative backbenchers.’
“how can you claim with such confidence that you ‘know’ it and @MoonRabbit ’knows nothing about the [Tories]?’”
Thank you Doctor Y. Tories gave birth to me and I go to bed with one.
My original post got no likes, and all those attacking it got lots 😆
Despite reading all replies, I stand by my original post. To my mind, the letters haven’t gone in because they are not nearly close enough to winning the VONC. We all need to consider this as the main reason for the stalemate. Add to that, since Sunak sat next to Boris at PMQs we have heard little from Cummings and nothing from Norman. Moment of peak danger May even have passed.
Those who don’t like it don’t want to hear the idea that this attack will blow over and Boris recover to majority retaining levels at the GE. We don’t want to hear this, but no one knows for certain it isn’t true. For the voters who backed him last time, Brexit delivered, covid beaten, levelling up ongoing. Add in uneasiness about switching to an opposition parties economic ideas and running the country - that’s why next election result can still be 1992 all over again.
I stand by my reasoning why a coup was tried (nothing to do with parties. And why it failed - a manufactured attack like this crashed into the fact his time isn’t up yet, because he is not under any pressure at all from back benchers, voters, cabinet colleagues or his newspapers for lack of delivery.
We need to see past Partygate to see Boris underlying appeal is still there.
Forget stalemate, the relevant metaphor is bridge. Cummings is finessing cards out of bojo and gray by openly stating that he will spill further beans after Gray reports
We are in a phoney war, to be followed by a real one. Gray is bojo straw clutching.
Morning all in news that will delight @Dura_Ace and be no surprise at all to @IshmaelZ I am currently in A&E with a very large bump where my shoulder and collarbone usually are.
Given that I am dressed like a posho twat I fully expected them to refuse me treatment. But before I had finished the first draft of this post they had called me in to be triaged.
Painkillers with a reassuringly high street value mean that all is well in the world.
Texting facilities unaffected. And no one asked me for my vaccination status.
Oh fuck, could be worse, collar bones are basically sacrificial parts
I had one of my twice yearly hedges days yesterday, happily intact.
Excellent. It was one of those with a ditch away that did for me.
I happily send get well hugs Topping 🤗 But like Dura Ace, your tough as old boots and don’t need restorative hugs from me?
Very kind thank you.
Wishing you well.
By hedges, do you mean cutting hedges, or bicycling into a hedge, or being pushed into a hedge by a version of Dura_Ace going past at 823 mph in a Hoon Wagon or on a Superman Bike?
On cyclists for better or worse in London I can say that 90% go through red lights routinely. When I did a daily Boris bike commute 40 mins each way through the centre of London it was so rare for cyclists to stop at red lights that when another did (I always do) it was a conversation starter.
No idea what if any accidents it causes and needless to say zero cars did the same.
More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
I get how the optics are terrible in making it look like Germany is taking Russia's side on this, but should we have requested flight paths over rather heavily populated northern Germany for planes stuffed with explosives?
Surely such flights should take the least populated route, just in case? If the Germans were sending similarly loaded planes to Dublin for some reason, I'd prefer them not to fly right over London.
There were plenty of ways the Germans could have assisted, but they chose not to.
Yes, it does look like they’re taking Putin’s side, being at best ambivalent to Russia advancing right to the border of the EU and NATO, if it means the gas for German heavy industry keeps flowing.
I just realised that the story linked to isn't about our flight paths; it's about Germany blocking weapons they sold to Estonia being supplied to Ukraine.
German naval chief says "need to do more" re offering alternatives & not just ltd resources or convincing govts re human rights.
"because China is giving money whether to dictators, to killers, to criminals. It doesn’t matter -- as long as they give their resources to China" "Russia threaten its neighbors with military force to prevent them leaving the Russian sphere of influence"
In Q&A says "Putin is probably putting pressure on [Ukraine] because he can do it," to split Europe & for respect What [Putin] really wants is respect...and, my God, giving someone respect is low cost, even no cost. So if I was asked...it is easy to even give him the respect he really demands and probably also deserves"
@tanvi_madan German naval chief: "we need Russia because we need Russia against China...From my perspective, I’m a very radical Roman Catholic. I’m believing in God & I believe in Christianity. & there we have a Christian country; even Putin, he’s an atheist but it doesn't matter" https://twitter.com/tanvi_madan/status/1484642943499649026
I believe that there’s even a multi faceted poster on here who has bummed up the defender of family values and scourge of woke Putin. Mad…
Is that a cryptic crossword clue ?
Alone, headless and disorganised in Spain (4 letters)
Morning all in news that will delight @Dura_Ace and be no surprise at all to @IshmaelZ I am currently in A&E with a very large bump where my shoulder and collarbone usually are.
Given that I am dressed like a posho twat I fully expected them to refuse me treatment. But before I had finished the first draft of this post they had called me in to be triaged.
Painkillers with a reassuringly high street value mean that all is well in the world.
Texting facilities unaffected. And no one asked me for my vaccination status.
Oh fuck, could be worse, collar bones are basically sacrificial parts
I had one of my twice yearly hedges days yesterday, happily intact.
Excellent. It was one of those with a ditch away that did for me.
Morning all in news that will delight @Dura_Ace and be no surprise at all to @IshmaelZ I am currently in A&E with a very large bump where my shoulder and collarbone usually are.
Given that I am dressed like a posho twat I fully expected them to refuse me treatment. But before I had finished the first draft of this post they had called me in to be triaged.
Painkillers with a reassuringly high street value mean that all is well in the world.
Texting facilities unaffected. And no one asked me for my vaccination status.
Oh fuck, could be worse, collar bones are basically sacrificial parts
I had one of my twice yearly hedges days yesterday, happily intact.
Excellent. It was one of those with a ditch away that did for me.
On cyclists for better or worse in London I can say that 90% go through red lights routinely. When I did a daily Boris bike commute 40 mins each way through the centre of London it was so rare for cyclists to stop at red lights that when another did (I always do) it was a conversation starter.
No idea what if any accidents it causes and needless to say zero cars did the same.
On a lot of the new cycle lanes they have to stop at lights for self preservation. My impression is that over the last few years that has also improved adherence at other lights where they could generally get away with it.
Morning all in news that will delight @Dura_Ace and be no surprise at all to @IshmaelZ I am currently in A&E with a very large bump where my shoulder and collarbone usually are.
Given that I am dressed like a posho twat I fully expected them to refuse me treatment. But before I had finished the first draft of this post they had called me in to be triaged.
Painkillers with a reassuringly high street value mean that all is well in the world.
Texting facilities unaffected. And no one asked me for my vaccination status.
Oh fuck, could be worse, collar bones are basically sacrificial parts
I had one of my twice yearly hedges days yesterday, happily intact.
Excellent. It was one of those with a ditch away that did for me.
I happily send get well hugs Topping 🤗 But like Dura Ace, your tough as old boots and don’t need restorative hugs from me?
Very kind thank you.
Wishing you well.
By hedges, do you mean cutting hedges, or bicycling into a hedge, or being pushed into a hedge by a version of Dura_Ace going past at 823 mph in a Hoon Wagon or on a Superman Bike?
A Posho Twat in a Posho Hat. It rhymes.
Thanks v much. Jumping over them. Or not. And yes it's s good rhyme. Dammit.
I might have seen Dura out this morning but he was on foot and in his black from head to toe outfit if so.
Basically its a mess. The Greens are constitutionally opposed to the deployment of German weapons abroad. The US is getting seriously impatient with both the Secretary of State and the head of the CIA delivering increasingly blunt messages. The Chancellor seems out of his depth and more focused on divisions in the SPD. The Germans are still dependent upon Russia for 45% of their gas. They have no LPG port and the Greens have serious reservations about importing gas gained from fracking anyway.
Leaderless, policy free, trying to please everyone but in fact pleasing no one.
I think we too easily attribute it mostly to worries about gas. The closer one is to the issue the more the historical complexities become apparent. Nationalist Ukranians see history as a long struggle for independence, finally achieved and now threatened once again. Nationalist Russians see Ukraine as separatists, and are baffled by talk of Crimea or East Ukraine themselves being separatists. Russians with family memories of WWII remember early Ukranian collaboration with the Nazis, and point to the toleration of armed neo-Nazi militia in Ukraine (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion). Ukranians with family memories of the 30s think of Stalin's Holodomor and near-national starvation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor).
Germans are conscious of the their history of genocidal aggression against both, and are really reluctant to get involved. It's hard to blame them.
Except they are getting involved to some extent - by putting roadblocks in the way if aid to Ukraine.
The fact stands that Putin is set to violate the UN Charter, again. This is not really a 'both sides' situation.
It reminds me of the Yugoslav wars - since the Serbians inherited much of the equipment of the Yugoslav Army, they were winning.
Thatcher was told, by the "diplomacy experts" that supplying are to the Croats etc would just be "Levelling the killing field".
So the futile talks carried on, while more and more territory was seized and more and more "ethnic cleansing" went on.
Yes, I think Nick is being naive about Putin's aims, which appear to be the return of an independent nation to Russian vassal status.
NATO is a defensive organisation, which has never invaded a neighbour. Post soviet Russia, not so much.
Haven't see one for a while, but see also when there is talk of how the West intrudes into the 'Russian Sphere', which may well be inadvisable from a pragmatic point, but in actuality is saying that some nations are not allowed to take certain stances if they want because it would upset Russia, that Ukraine and others are not allowed to be free.
The other one is suggesting a decision not to act is not taking a side, when it is (perhaps the least worse option sometime, but siad choice should not be presented as less than it is).
I thought Brexiteers loved Europe, just not the EU... or at least so they proclaimed during the referendum. Yet they seem happy to leave it to Russia's devices.
Which Brexiteers are these?
UK Brexit Government doesn't seem to be doing that...
I presume we are only days away from a principled stand from the Tory party on Rouble Stream 1?
Morning all in news that will delight @Dura_Ace and be no surprise at all to @IshmaelZ I am currently in A&E with a very large bump where my shoulder and collarbone usually are.
Given that I am dressed like a posho twat I fully expected them to refuse me treatment. But before I had finished the first draft of this post they had called me in to be triaged.
Painkillers with a reassuringly high street value mean that all is well in the world.
Texting facilities unaffected. And no one asked me for my vaccination status.
Oh fuck, could be worse, collar bones are basically sacrificial parts
I had one of my twice yearly hedges days yesterday, happily intact.
Excellent. It was one of those with a ditch away that did for me.
I happily send get well hugs Topping 🤗 But like Dura Ace, your tough as old boots and don’t need restorative hugs from me?
Very kind thank you.
Wishing you well.
By hedges, do you mean cutting hedges, or bicycling into a hedge, or being pushed into a hedge by a version of Dura_Ace going past at 823 mph in a Hoon Wagon or on a Superman Bike?
A Posho Twat in a Posho Hat. It rhymes.
Thanks v much. Jumping over them. Or not. And yes it's s good rhyme. Dammit.
I might have seen Dura out this morning but he was on foot and in his black from head to toe outfit if so.
More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
I get how the optics are terrible in making it look like Germany is taking Russia's side on this, but should we have requested flight paths over rather heavily populated northern Germany for planes stuffed with explosives?
Surely such flights should take the least populated route, just in case? If the Germans were sending similarly loaded planes to Dublin for some reason, I'd prefer them not to fly right over London.
There were plenty of ways the Germans could have assisted, but they chose not to.
Yes, it does look like they’re taking Putin’s side, being at best ambivalent to Russia advancing right to the border of the EU and NATO, if it means the gas for German heavy industry keeps flowing.
On the flight paths, both UK and Germany have stated that there is no diplomatic spat. UK did not ask to overfly Germany.
Whether it was a "don't ask, so they don't say no" case is a separate question.
On cyclists for better or worse in London I can say that 90% go through red lights routinely. When I did a daily Boris bike commute 40 mins each way through the centre of London it was so rare for cyclists to stop at red lights that when another did (I always do) it was a conversation starter.
No idea what if any accidents it causes and needless to say zero cars did the same.
On a lot of the new cycle lanes they have to stop at lights for self preservation. My impression is that over the last few years that has also improved adherence at other lights where they could generally get away with it.
Interesting. I haven't done that commute for a couple of years.
Morning all in news that will delight @Dura_Ace and be no surprise at all to @IshmaelZ I am currently in A&E with a very large bump where my shoulder and collarbone usually are.
Given that I am dressed like a posho twat I fully expected them to refuse me treatment. But before I had finished the first draft of this post they had called me in to be triaged.
Painkillers with a reassuringly high street value mean that all is well in the world.
Texting facilities unaffected. And no one asked me for my vaccination status.
Oh fuck, could be worse, collar bones are basically sacrificial parts
I had one of my twice yearly hedges days yesterday, happily intact.
Excellent. It was one of those with a ditch away that did for me.
I happily send get well hugs Topping 🤗 But like Dura Ace, your tough as old boots and don’t need restorative hugs from me?
Very kind thank you.
I know who I want on my team when the Zombie apocalypse kicks off!
Even Broken shoulders heal quickly in about 6 weeks. But it’s important when it’s tucked up in a sling not to be getting it out all the time.
More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
I get how the optics are terrible in making it look like Germany is taking Russia's side on this, but should we have requested flight paths over rather heavily populated northern Germany for planes stuffed with explosives?
Surely such flights should take the least populated route, just in case? If the Germans were sending similarly loaded planes to Dublin for some reason, I'd prefer them not to fly right over London.
There were plenty of ways the Germans could have assisted, but they chose not to.
Yes, it does look like they’re taking Putin’s side, being at best ambivalent to Russia advancing right to the border of the EU and NATO, if it means the gas for German heavy industry keeps flowing.
On the flight paths, both UK and Germany have stated that there is no diplomatic spat. UK did not ask to overfly Germany.
Whether it was a "don't ask, so they don't say no" case is a separate question.
Presumably we had to ask Denmark to fly over their airspace. That we're not going the direct route tells us everything we need to know about the German position.
This is a more serious matter still than the PM lying to Parliament. It's outright corruption.
When you quoted the law on blackmail, I didn't read it properly and posted a nonsensical kneejerk reaction.
Just out of interest, did anyone manage to explain how it was possible to convict, except purely through the jury being convinced the defendant was lying?
Pretty much all convictions depend on the jury thinking the d is lying, and many of them on drawing conclusions about his state of mind.
There's a reason the EU will never have a coherent foreign policy, and that is because Germany's position has always been inconsistent with other nations with large militaries such as France and Poland.
The UK should continue to work with like-minded allies on the Continent regardless of the fallout from Brexit.
Morning all in news that will delight @Dura_Ace and be no surprise at all to @IshmaelZ I am currently in A&E with a very large bump where my shoulder and collarbone usually are.
Given that I am dressed like a posho twat I fully expected them to refuse me treatment. But before I had finished the first draft of this post they had called me in to be triaged.
Painkillers with a reassuringly high street value mean that all is well in the world.
Texting facilities unaffected. And no one asked me for my vaccination status.
Oh fuck, could be worse, collar bones are basically sacrificial parts
I had one of my twice yearly hedges days yesterday, happily intact.
Excellent. It was one of those with a ditch away that did for me.
I happily send get well hugs Topping 🤗 But like Dura Ace, your tough as old boots and don’t need restorative hugs from me?
Very kind thank you.
Wishing you well.
By hedges, do you mean cutting hedges, or bicycling into a hedge, or being pushed into a hedge by a version of Dura_Ace going past at 823 mph in a Hoon Wagon or on a Superman Bike?
A Posho Twat in a Posho Hat. It rhymes.
Thanks v much. Jumping over them. Or not. And yes it's s good rhyme. Dammit.
I might have seen Dura out this morning but he was on foot and in his black from head to toe outfit if so.
This is a more serious matter still than the PM lying to Parliament. It's outright corruption.
When you quoted the law on blackmail, I didn't read it properly and posted a nonsensical kneejerk reaction.
Just out of interest, did anyone manage to explain how it was possible to convict, except purely through the jury being convinced the defendant was lying?
Pretty much all convictions depend on the jury thinking the d is lying, and many of them on drawing conclusions about his state of mind.
Of course most convictions depend on the jury being convinced by other evidence that the defendant is lying, but it's unusual for guilt to depend entirely on whether the defendant really thought what he was doing was OK.
On cyclists for better or worse in London I can say that 90% go through red lights routinely. When I did a daily Boris bike commute 40 mins each way through the centre of London it was so rare for cyclists to stop at red lights that when another did (I always do) it was a conversation starter.
No idea what if any accidents it causes and needless to say zero cars did the same.
On a lot of the new cycle lanes they have to stop at lights for self preservation. My impression is that over the last few years that has also improved adherence at other lights where they could generally get away with it.
Interesting. I haven't done that commute for a couple of years.
Under the basically good changes to the Highway Code, people on foot or bike now have priority crossing the unsigned entrances to side roads over other vehicles on the road.
I have even heard MPs alleging that the prime minister himself has been doing this,” Bryant told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme. “What I have said to all of those people is that that is misconduct in public office. The people who should be dealing with such allegations are the police.
“It is illegal. We are meant to operate as MPs without fear or favour. The allocation of taxpayer funding to constituencies should be according to need, not according to the need to keep the prime minister in his job.”
He described the government’s levelling up fund as “an open opportunity for government ministers to corruptly hand out money to some MPs and not to others”.
More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
This is becoming a very serious and divisive crisis for the EU
The EU has no security responsibility for the territorial integrity of member states because that's what Madeline Albright insisted on with the famous 'Three Ds' when she laid down the law to Blair and Chirac.
This crisis is just another crooked milestone, like Afghanistan and Trump's second term, on the road to the demise of NATO.
The demise of NATO is about as prophesied as the demise of the EU.
In the case of NATO, there is already a number of examples where members.... er... drop out? for various crises when they feel like it.
There has been no attack from an foreign state yet on any part of NATO territory within the area covered by the agreement. That is a massive success and a huge strength, making NATO value for money among other things.
Then demise of the EU while unlikely is more possible than that of NATO. The EU members of what looks like an EU state but isn't do not have common defence alliances. What, for example, would be German policy following a Russian incursion into Finland is complete guesswork.
Look back eighty years for a rather sinister precedent ...
This is a more serious matter still than the PM lying to Parliament. It's outright corruption.
When you quoted the law on blackmail, I didn't read it properly and posted a nonsensical kneejerk reaction.
Just out of interest, did anyone manage to explain how it was possible to convict, except purely through the jury being convinced the defendant was lying?
I'm not familiar with any blackmail case law, but I would assume there is a reasonably high hurdle for a defendant to prove that they genuinely believed that they were acting reasonably in their own view. The burden of proof for a particular legal defence to a crime sometimes means that the onus is on the defendant to prove it, I think (while the beyond reasonable doubt test applies to the case as a whole).
I don't disagree with the historical complexities Nick but the fact is that a pusillaminous Germany is very likely to cause a hot war to break out in central Europe. If Germany was clear that the EU would back the Ukraine whatever it takes, SWIFT, munitions etc, it would be much less likely to happen. Of course Biden wittering about minor incursions being ok doesn't exactly help either.
Yes, Biden's comment was weird and dangerous - I can't imagine what he was thinking.
That said, the Russian strategic paranoia (which I think goes far beyond Putin's circle) is that the West wants to have an armed presence right up to their (shrunken) border, and they correctly note that Gorbachev was assured that we wouldn't expand Nato eastwards, and then we did it anyway. If we shovel weapons into Ukraine (which are hardly going to make a difference if Russia really does invade) and refuse to promise not to add Ukraine to Nato, it feeds the paranoia.
I absolutely think Nordstream should not be opened before the Russians pull back, and if they do it should be clear that it will be closed again if they resume menacing behaviour. But I don't think sending arms is sensible - the threat of economic sanctions, just starting with Nordstream, should be both more effective and less inflammatory. It would be good if Germany said that Nordstream will *never* be opened (not merely delayed) if Russia attacks Ukraine, but otherwise the German policy looks about right.
Biden’s as dangerous as Trump, possibly even worse as Putin would have been worried about the unpredictability of Trump’s response.
If Russia takes Ukraine, there will definitely be an armed NATO presence right on their border.
Western nations shovelling weapons to Ukraine, will make a massive difference to their ability to defend themselves.
Germany right now are looking like appeasers of Putin. Someone, maybe even a deniable group of Westerners, are about to put a big hole in that pipeline if Putin tries to march to Kiev.
Morning all in news that will delight @Dura_Ace and be no surprise at all to @IshmaelZ I am currently in A&E with a very large bump where my shoulder and collarbone usually are.
Given that I am dressed like a posho twat I fully expected them to refuse me treatment. But before I had finished the first draft of this post they had called me in to be triaged.
Painkillers with a reassuringly high street value mean that all is well in the world.
Texting facilities unaffected. And no one asked me for my vaccination status.
Oh fuck, could be worse, collar bones are basically sacrificial parts
I had one of my twice yearly hedges days yesterday, happily intact.
Excellent. It was one of those with a ditch away that did for me.
I happily send get well hugs Topping 🤗 But like Dura Ace, your tough as old boots and don’t need restorative hugs from me?
Very kind thank you.
I know who I want on my team when the Zombie apocalypse kicks off!
Even Broken shoulders heal quickly in about 6 weeks. But it’s important when it’s tucked up in a sling not to be getting it out all the time.
More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
This is becoming a very serious and divisive crisis for the EU
The EU has no security responsibility for the territorial integrity of member states because that's what Madeline Albright insisted on with the famous 'Three Ds' when she laid down the law to Blair and Chirac.
This crisis is just another crooked milestone, like Afghanistan and Trump's second term, on the road to the demise of NATO.
If NATO were wound down there'd need to be a Common European Defence capability, wouldn't there?
"NATO without the US and UK" is an interesting concept.
It's just the US, really, isn't it. If they pulled the plug I think we'd link with Europe. Can't see how we wouldn't. Not that I'm agreeing NATO is toast btw. I remain bullish on America detrumping and pulling itself together.
No chance, if the US decides it's done with NATO the UK would quickly follow suit.
I am not so sure that is true. We know that in a modern world the sorts of military threats that NATO was designed to challenge cannot generally be dealt with by one country. I suspect we would push for the rump NATO to be reconfigured and continue outside the EU structure perhaps still including Canada. There would also be the consideration that, as with the aberration that was the Trump administration, whichever President withdrew the US from NATO, would not be around for ever and that if NATO in some form still existed they could be tempted to rejoin.
NATO without the US is a wholly pointless organisation. Doesn't make sense at all for us at all. We'd be more likely to reformulate a mutual defence pact with Pacific allies and let the EU deal with Russia.
Methinks your antipathy towards the EU is rather clouding your views here. Pragmatically when faced with an aggressive Eastern neighbour we have to engage with the EU countries in some form of defensive pact. That does not preclude also being involved in the Pacific but defending New Zealand against China does not help us defend ourselves against Russia.
Pragmatically I think the calculation is that what happens on the continent is no longer our problem. They've made it clear that it isn't our problem either, all throughout the Brexit negotiations they made it clear.
But why is the Pacific or anywhere else our problem? If this is the mindset the logical policy is surely to opt out, slash the military, be neutral.
Because China actually does pose a threat to the free nations of Asia and the Pacific. Russia doesn't, or at least the EU doesn't have the will to do what is necessary to hand Russia an economic defeat big enough to drive Putin back.
From the perspective of a UK taxpayer, what's in it for us to spend our blood and treasure for the EU? In Asia there is significant potential upside, in the EU I can see none.
I'm not suggesting we make that calculation and I'm supportive of the action that the government has taken to try and prevent Ukraine being conquered and ultimately protect the Eastern border, yet that is done alongside the US. If the US decides it's had enough of German hand wringing and two facedness the situation changes. Our commitment will have to multiples larger, and we'll essentially be standing the bill for Germany deciding that having Russian gas is more important than freedom in Ukraine and eventually preventing Russian expansion into the EU itself.
Why should we pay the price for Germany having an appeasement based foreign policy? Our Asian allies are all stepping up to help contain China, our major EU "ally" has decided it doesn't want to. That's the difference.
This is a more serious matter still than the PM lying to Parliament. It's outright corruption.
When you quoted the law on blackmail, I didn't read it properly and posted a nonsensical kneejerk reaction.
Just out of interest, did anyone manage to explain how it was possible to convict, except purely through the jury being convinced the defendant was lying?
Pretty much all convictions depend on the jury thinking the d is lying, and many of them on drawing conclusions about his state of mind.
Of course most convictions depend on the jury being convinced by other evidence that the defendant is lying, but it's unusual for guilt to depend entirely on whether the defendant really thought what he was doing was OK.
Not in practice difficult in the majority of cases. Nobody thinks running a protection racket is reasonable and if they say they do it takes about a second to conclude they are lying.
What is difficult is insanity defences. How a jury is meant to reach a useful conclusion on those I have no idea
Morning all in news that will delight @Dura_Ace and be no surprise at all to @IshmaelZ I am currently in A&E with a very large bump where my shoulder and collarbone usually are.
Given that I am dressed like a posho twat I fully expected them to refuse me treatment. But before I had finished the first draft of this post they had called me in to be triaged.
Painkillers with a reassuringly high street value mean that all is well in the world.
Texting facilities unaffected. And no one asked me for my vaccination status.
Oh fuck, could be worse, collar bones are basically sacrificial parts
I had one of my twice yearly hedges days yesterday, happily intact.
Excellent. It was one of those with a ditch away that did for me.
I happily send get well hugs Topping 🤗 But like Dura Ace, your tough as old boots and don’t need restorative hugs from me?
Very kind thank you.
Wishing you well.
By hedges, do you mean cutting hedges, or bicycling into a hedge, or being pushed into a hedge by a version of Dura_Ace going past at 823 mph in a Hoon Wagon or on a Superman Bike?
A Posho Twat in a Posho Hat. It rhymes.
Thanks v much. Jumping over them. Or not. And yes it's s good rhyme. Dammit.
I might have seen Dura out this morning but he was on foot and in his black from head to toe outfit if so.
More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
I get how the optics are terrible in making it look like Germany is taking Russia's side on this, but should we have requested flight paths over rather heavily populated northern Germany for planes stuffed with explosives?
Surely such flights should take the least populated route, just in case? If the Germans were sending similarly loaded planes to Dublin for some reason, I'd prefer them not to fly right over London.
There were plenty of ways the Germans could have assisted, but they chose not to.
Yes, it does look like they’re taking Putin’s side, being at best ambivalent to Russia advancing right to the border of the EU and NATO, if it means the gas for German heavy industry keeps flowing.
I just realised that the story linked to isn't about our flight paths; it's about Germany blocking weapons they sold to Estonia being supplied to Ukraine.
German naval chief says "need to do more" re offering alternatives & not just ltd resources or convincing govts re human rights.
"because China is giving money whether to dictators, to killers, to criminals. It doesn’t matter -- as long as they give their resources to China" "Russia threaten its neighbors with military force to prevent them leaving the Russian sphere of influence"
In Q&A says "Putin is probably putting pressure on [Ukraine] because he can do it," to split Europe & for respect What [Putin] really wants is respect...and, my God, giving someone respect is low cost, even no cost. So if I was asked...it is easy to even give him the respect he really demands and probably also deserves"
@tanvi_madan German naval chief: "we need Russia because we need Russia against China...From my perspective, I’m a very radical Roman Catholic. I’m believing in God & I believe in Christianity. & there we have a Christian country; even Putin, he’s an atheist but it doesn't matter" https://twitter.com/tanvi_madan/status/1484642943499649026
I believe that there’s even a multi faceted poster on here who has bummed up the defender of family values and scourge of woke Putin. Mad…
Is that a cryptic crossword clue ?
Alone, headless and disorganised in Spain (4 letters)
On cyclists for better or worse in London I can say that 90% go through red lights routinely. When I did a daily Boris bike commute 40 mins each way through the centre of London it was so rare for cyclists to stop at red lights that when another did (I always do) it was a conversation starter.
No idea what if any accidents it causes and needless to say zero cars did the same.
On a lot of the new cycle lanes they have to stop at lights for self preservation. My impression is that over the last few years that has also improved adherence at other lights where they could generally get away with it.
Interesting. I haven't done that commute for a couple of years.
Actually another thing that is improving adherence is that a lot of traffic lights in central London now give cyclists 2-3 seconds head starts over cars when the lights turn green.
Morning all in news that will delight @Dura_Ace and be no surprise at all to @IshmaelZ I am currently in A&E with a very large bump where my shoulder and collarbone usually are.
Given that I am dressed like a posho twat I fully expected them to refuse me treatment. But before I had finished the first draft of this post they had called me in to be triaged.
Painkillers with a reassuringly high street value mean that all is well in the world.
Texting facilities unaffected. And no one asked me for my vaccination status.
Oh fuck, could be worse, collar bones are basically sacrificial parts
I had one of my twice yearly hedges days yesterday, happily intact.
Excellent. It was one of those with a ditch away that did for me.
I happily send get well hugs Topping 🤗 But like Dura Ace, your tough as old boots and don’t need restorative hugs from me?
Very kind thank you.
I know who I want on my team when the Zombie apocalypse kicks off!
Even Broken shoulders heal quickly in about 6 weeks. But it’s important when it’s tucked up in a sling not to be getting it out all the time.
I don't disagree with the historical complexities Nick but the fact is that a pusillaminous Germany is very likely to cause a hot war to break out in central Europe. If Germany was clear that the EU would back the Ukraine whatever it takes, SWIFT, munitions etc, it would be much less likely to happen. Of course Biden wittering about minor incursions being ok doesn't exactly help either.
Yes, Biden's comment was weird and dangerous - I can't imagine what he was thinking.
That said, the Russian strategic paranoia (which I think goes far beyond Putin's circle) is that the West wants to have an armed presence right up to their (shrunken) border, and they correctly note that Gorbachev was assured that we wouldn't expand Nato eastwards, and then we did it anyway. If we shovel weapons into Ukraine (which are hardly going to make a difference if Russia really does invade) and refuse to promise not to add Ukraine to Nato, it feeds the paranoia.
I absolutely think Nordstream should not be opened before the Russians pull back, and if they do it should be clear that it will be closed again if they resume menacing behaviour. But I don't think sending arms is sensible - the threat of economic sanctions, just starting with Nordstream, should be both more effective and less inflammatory. It would be good if Germany said that Nordstream will *never* be opened (not merely delayed) if Russia attacks Ukraine, but otherwise the German policy looks about right.
Biden’s as dangerous as Trump, possibly even worse as Putin would have been worried about the unpredictability of Trump’s response.
If Russia takes Ukraine, there will definitely be an armed NATO presence right on their border.
Western nations shovelling weapons to Ukraine, will make a massive difference to their ability to defend themselves.
Germany right now are looking like appeasers of Putin. Someone, maybe even a deniable group of Westerners, are about to put a big hole in that pipeline if Putin tries to march to Kiev.
Arming the Ukrainians will absolutely make a difference. Every Russian that goes home in a bodybag is another distraught mama and more pressure on the regime.
On cyclists for better or worse in London I can say that 90% go through red lights routinely. When I did a daily Boris bike commute 40 mins each way through the centre of London it was so rare for cyclists to stop at red lights that when another did (I always do) it was a conversation starter.
No idea what if any accidents it causes and needless to say zero cars did the same.
On a lot of the new cycle lanes they have to stop at lights for self preservation. My impression is that over the last few years that has also improved adherence at other lights where they could generally get away with it.
Interesting. I haven't done that commute for a couple of years.
Actually another thing that is improving adherence is that a lot of traffic lights in central London now give cyclists 2-3 seconds head starts over cars when the lights turn green.
Yes those mini lights are pretty good especially when quite often there are cars in the cycle area at the front.
Morning all in news that will delight @Dura_Ace and be no surprise at all to @IshmaelZ I am currently in A&E with a very large bump where my shoulder and collarbone usually are.
Given that I am dressed like a posho twat I fully expected them to refuse me treatment. But before I had finished the first draft of this post they had called me in to be triaged.
Painkillers with a reassuringly high street value mean that all is well in the world.
Texting facilities unaffected. And no one asked me for my vaccination status.
Oh fuck, could be worse, collar bones are basically sacrificial parts
I had one of my twice yearly hedges days yesterday, happily intact.
Excellent. It was one of those with a ditch away that did for me.
I happily send get well hugs Topping 🤗 But like Dura Ace, your tough as old boots and don’t need restorative hugs from me?
Very kind thank you.
Wishing you well.
By hedges, do you mean cutting hedges, or bicycling into a hedge, or being pushed into a hedge by a version of Dura_Ace going past at 823 mph in a Hoon Wagon or on a Superman Bike?
A Posho Twat in a Posho Hat. It rhymes.
Thanks v much. Jumping over them. Or not. And yes it's s good rhyme. Dammit.
I might have seen Dura out this morning but he was on foot and in his black from head to toe outfit if so.
p.s. I realise that this is lighting a blue touch paper to a few of you hardiest freedom-at-all-costs folk on here who think the Meatloaf approach to control is the right example
ha! It sounds like you deliberately set-up a rumble though ! Shall I bite? ermm - I will go this far- I have done the odd triathlon in the past and have of course worn a helmet (in the bike bit) as its the rules - fair enough. When i trained for it , I sometimes wore one and sometimes did not depending on my own risk assessment (did not actually fill in a form!) of where i was cycling. So (like facemasks ) I think it should be up to the individual to decide and I woudl have thought if Chris Boardman read your post he woudl find the name calling a bit tedious and disrespectful as would any human on the end of a judging insult like that. As you quote Meat Loaf - Isn't the line " will you hose me down with holy water if I get to hot" just about the best line in any rock song?
Yes, I'll bite too. I know a bit about Chris Boardman's position on this. Which is that if we are hoping for cycling to become the norm, like in the Netherlands, we shouldn't be putting obstacles to people cycling in place. It's not the responsibility of the cyclist to armour himself up against careless drivers. Cycling should be as unremarkable a way of getting about as walking. When Chris Boardman had this role in Mamchester, he was very deliberate that promotional material should not show helmeted cyclists, but that cycling should be a normal, unremarkable way of getting about. Also, it doesn't help as much as you think it does. Cyclists with helmets take more risks, and drivers take more risks with helmeted cyclists. It's a zero sum game: the safer you make people, the more risks they will take. Also, Chris Boardman's mum was killed while cycling (by a lorry, I think). He is tragically aware of the risks.
For years I commuted to work by bike, though no longer due to a change in duties. The key to safe cycling is safe routes in cities more than anything and few British cities have safe cycle routes. In Leicester there were a number that just disappeared at the point that they were needed, such as complex junctions and roundabouts.
Certainly there are lots of anti-social cyclists breaking the rules of the road, and also unlit in dark clothes, but we cannot base policy on them.
Why can't we have a registration scheme and insurance for cyclists over the age of 16? Mandatory uniquely numbered hi-viz tops and mandatory third party insurance for when the undertaking cyclist accidentally tears off a £500 to replace door mirror before they anonymously disappear into the ether, like a jet black lycra ghost.
I'm not a fan of cycling and have the usual experiences with aggressive cyclists but of course it's valuable both for health and pollution reduction, and the reasons why cyclists have to worry about careless drivers are obvious. I'm dstruck by the total contrast in attitudes here compared with Denmark (where cycling is something nearly everyone does sometimes - I used to know a Supreme Court judge who cycled to work), and as Foxy suggests the obvious difference is ubiquitous cycle lanes, so the main reason for motorist-cyclist and cyclist-pedestrian aggro evaporates.
Cycling without a helmet is like driving without a seatbelt - both are both mildly liberating and utterly stupid. I don't think it's proven that drivers take more risks with helmeted cyclists, and that sounds really unlikely - does anyone think, even subconsciously, "I'll risk driving over this fellow because he's wearing a helmet?" A dangerously-driving prat will be the same prat regardless.
I'm a car driver, cyclist, and pedestrian in a big city, so therefore am completely objective. What I see on a daily basis out of the three groups, drivers by far do the most aggressive and dangerous acts. Pedestrians are the next biggest group of people doing stupid things (usually not aggressive, but just looking at their phones while walking into traffic), then cyclists.
I am absolutely certain that the minority of drivers who drive dangerously with cyclists change their behaviour depending on the type of cyclist - since I cycle with a bakfiets type bicycle with a hefty wooden box in front I almost never experience drivers deliberately cutting me up - something that happened at least once every day before even when I had a small child in a child seat on the bicycle. I just assume they are more careful with the cargo bike because they don't want a big dent in their Audi.
The cycling helmets rhetoric is a classic red herring. Insurance perhaps less so.
The best research we have shows no clear safety benefit of helmet wearing, and some evidence that it encourages more dangerous behaviour (eg close passes) from drivers.
But it *does* show that compulsory helmets reduces cycling significantly.
If you want 3rd Party Insurance, it comes free with the £30 or so membership of various cycling bodies.
(You also get 3rd party liability insurance for injuries caused by your dog if you are a member of the Dogs Trust for a similar amount.)
I have even heard MPs alleging that the prime minister himself has been doing this,” Bryant told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme. “What I have said to all of those people is that that is misconduct in public office. The people who should be dealing with such allegations are the police.
“It is illegal. We are meant to operate as MPs without fear or favour. The allocation of taxpayer funding to constituencies should be according to need, not according to the need to keep the prime minister in his job.”
He described the government’s levelling up fund as “an open opportunity for government ministers to corruptly hand out money to some MPs and not to others”.
Comments
European security is essential to British security. Cutting the continent free would be foolishness of the highest order.
Reynolds, two well-placed sources say, has been candid with Gray. “Reynolds is not willing to be the fall guy in all of this,” one government source said. “He’s talking and making his position very clear.” While the prime minister may feel determined to fight on, those around him are preparing for the fact that they may need to leave No 10.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/poisonous-atmosphere-spreads-through-no-10-nest-of-adders-f5wg9pq6m
It's a good job that's not on the cards this...ah.
Bojo-is-toasters need to hold their nerve, because Bojo is toast
Of course European taxpayers (like British ones) show little inclination to pay for such defence capabilities and the European politicians (like British ones) evince little competence or will to implement them.
NATO is a defensive organisation, which has never invaded a neighbour. Post soviet Russia, not so much.
"Shovelling" weapons into Ukraine -- a provocation!
Similarly, the EU to a reasonable first approximation, is "France and Germany, plus..." which is why "Frexit" is an absurdity.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Brest-Litovsk_(Ukraine–Central_Powers)
Note that this was an earlier and less famous Treaty than the one with Soviet Russia.
Clinton was the one who said "fuck it" and armed the opposition to the Serbs.
If NATO is dissolved our interest in defending the Eastern border of Europe goes with it, we're not in the EU and that is now their problem. They like to tell us how much economic might they have, time for them to spend some of it on defending themselves.
Boris is toast.
We cannot rely on the US alone to do it. Even the Biden administration is focused more on containing China as you say, hence AUKUS. Trump if he wins in 2024 would focus solely on taking an aggressive stance with Communist China, Trump actually gets on with Putin however
And that's what Osborne failed to do before 2008 - instead the recession and bank crash had him looking like a fawn in the headlights.
Maybe he IS toast! Please make it so.
On a forced choice I would pull out of AUKUS not NATO and let the US, Australia and Japan contain China.
Though ideally we would stay in both
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/22/about-a-dozen-tory-mps-said-to-have-accused-party-whips-of-blackmail
This is a more serious matter still than the PM lying to Parliament. It's outright corruption.
Given that I am dressed like a posho twat I fully expected them to refuse me treatment. But before I had finished the first draft of this post they had called me in to be triaged.
Painkillers with a reassuringly high street value mean that all is well in the world.
Texting facilities unaffected. And no one asked me for my vaccination status.
Cyclists? Not so rare.
I had one of my twice yearly hedges days yesterday, happily intact.
And even if it was you'd expect fat boy to be the one to push the system beyond the limits
If you get grief over the dress tell them you are a historical reenactment enthusiast.
Thank you Doctor Y. Tories gave birth to me and I go to bed with one.
My original post got no likes, and all those attacking it got lots 😆
Despite reading all replies, I stand by my original post. To my mind, the letters haven’t gone in because they are not nearly close enough to winning the VONC. We all need to consider this as the main reason for the stalemate. Add to that, since Sunak sat next to Boris at PMQs we have heard little from Cummings and nothing from Norman. Moment of peak danger May even have passed.
Those who don’t like it don’t want to hear the idea that this attack will blow over and Boris recover to majority retaining levels at the GE. We don’t want to hear this, but no one knows for certain it isn’t true. For the voters who backed him last time, Brexit delivered, covid beaten, levelling up ongoing. Add in uneasiness about switching to an opposition parties economic ideas and running the country - that’s why next election result can still be 1992 all over again.
I stand by my reasoning why a coup was tried (nothing to do with parties. And why it failed - a manufactured attack like this crashed into the fact his time isn’t up yet, because he is not under any pressure at all from back benchers, voters, cabinet colleagues or his newspapers for lack of delivery.
We need to see past Partygate to see Boris underlying appeal is still there.
Its outright incompetence.
The Mogg -Spencer combo seem seriously inept.
But like Dura Ace, your tough as old boots and don’t need restorative hugs from me?
And even more so zebra crossings, if we can move away from just red lights.
To reiterate the fact that I dropped in earlier: 71% of injuries to pedestrians at crossings are caused by cars. 4% by cyclists. There's probably lots of analysis you could do here about passenger miles etc, but at the least it shows that yes, cars do run lights and similar, and with consequences too.
The problem is people going when they should stop. Anyone trying to pretend it's all just one group of people like cyclists or car drivers is engaging in low-quality trolling rather than being helpful.
But Germany *is* involved. They are involved up to their necks.
When Russia invaded and occupied part of Ukraine in 2014, the German company Rheinmetall, who ran the German Army training centres, had a 140m Euro contract to develop a state of the art training / combat simulation facility for the Russian Army. In place I think since 2011/12. Capacity 30k personnel per year.
https://www.defenceweb.co.za/land/land-land/russian-army-orders-training-centre-from-rheinmetall-as-military-modernises/
By comparuson the UK and Canada have trained around 30k Ukranian personnel in toto between 2015 and now with a staff of several hundred in theatre.
They continued with the contract *after* Ukraine and been invaded and occupied in 2014, and it was only stopped by EU sanctions later.
There have been other contracts.
Meanwhile, whilst Ukrainian soldiers are being killed by cross-border drone attacks and sniping, they have been stopping shipment of anti-drone and anti-sniper systems to Ukraine by other NATO allies. Under a policy of 'preventing escalation by keeping arms out of the area'.
So, Germany has been equipping the aggressor, and weakening the victim. Plus taking many steps during Merkel's time which made them weaker and weaker vis a vis Russia.
Which is hard to forgive imo.
To me an historical analogy is the UK and French Governments withdrawing support from the Czech Govt in 1938 because of our own political / military position, and forcing them to accept German invasion of the Sudetenland.
At least we have arguably learnt the damned lesson.
Just out of interest, did anyone manage to explain how it was possible to convict, except purely through the jury being convinced the defendant was lying?
It's analogous as to when people talk about not escalating things with China, which is all very well and good, and reference Imperial activities from the late 19th and and early 20th centuries, which is just repeating CCP talking points and, while history is important, are not relevant as a defence of China taking hostile or provocative stances now.
UK Brexit Government doesn't seem to be doing that...
We are in a phoney war, to be followed by a real one. Gray is bojo straw clutching.
By hedges, do you mean cutting hedges, or bicycling into a hedge, or being pushed into a hedge by a version of Dura_Ace going past at 823 mph in a Hoon Wagon or on a Superman Bike?
A Posho Twat in a Posho Hat.
No idea what if any accidents it causes and needless to say zero cars did the same.
I might have seen Dura out this morning but he was on foot and in his black from head to toe outfit if so.
The other one is suggesting a decision not to act is not taking a side, when it is (perhaps the least worse option sometime, but siad choice should not be presented as less than it is).
Whether it was a "don't ask, so they don't say no" case is a separate question.
Even Broken shoulders heal quickly in about 6 weeks. But it’s important when it’s tucked up in a sling not to be getting it out all the time.
The UK should continue to work with like-minded allies on the Continent regardless of the fallout from Brexit.
Boris, astonishingly, is in 100x as much shit as he was this time last week
I have even heard MPs alleging that the prime minister himself has been doing this,” Bryant told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme. “What I have said to all of those people is that that is misconduct in public office. The people who should be dealing with such allegations are the police.
“It is illegal. We are meant to operate as MPs without fear or favour. The allocation of taxpayer funding to constituencies should be according to need, not according to the need to keep the prime minister in his job.”
He described the government’s levelling up fund as “an open opportunity for government ministers to corruptly hand out money to some MPs and not to others”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/22/about-a-dozen-tory-mps-said-to-have-accused-party-whips-of-blackmail
Sunak needs to move very fast indeed
BJ: ha ha, got away with it again, onwards and upwards!
The burden of proof for a particular legal defence to a crime sometimes means that the onus is on the defendant to prove it, I think (while the beyond reasonable doubt test applies to the case as a whole).
If Russia takes Ukraine, there will definitely be an armed NATO presence right on their border.
Western nations shovelling weapons to Ukraine, will make a massive difference to their ability to defend themselves.
Germany right now are looking like appeasers of Putin. Someone, maybe even a deniable group of Westerners, are about to put a big hole in that pipeline if Putin tries to march to Kiev.
Get well soon Topping.
From the perspective of a UK taxpayer, what's in it for us to spend our blood and treasure for the EU? In Asia there is significant potential upside, in the EU I can see none.
I'm not suggesting we make that calculation and I'm supportive of the action that the government has taken to try and prevent Ukraine being conquered and ultimately protect the Eastern border, yet that is done alongside the US. If the US decides it's had enough of German hand wringing and two facedness the situation changes. Our commitment will have to multiples larger, and we'll essentially be standing the bill for Germany deciding that having Russian gas is more important than freedom in Ukraine and eventually preventing Russian expansion into the EU itself.
Why should we pay the price for Germany having an appeasement based foreign policy? Our Asian allies are all stepping up to help contain China, our major EU "ally" has decided it doesn't want to. That's the difference.
What is difficult is insanity defences. How a jury is meant to reach a useful conclusion on those I have no idea
If the latter, then kudos.
The best research we have shows no clear safety benefit of helmet wearing, and some evidence that it encourages more dangerous behaviour (eg close passes) from drivers.
But it *does* show that compulsory helmets reduces cycling significantly.
If you want 3rd Party Insurance, it comes free with the £30 or so membership of various cycling bodies.
(You also get 3rd party liability insurance for injuries caused by your dog if you are a member of the Dogs Trust for a similar amount.)
You can lay bojo to leave 2023 or later at 3.4 on smarkets exit date by quarter market if you want some free money