David (Lord) Frost’s resignation as Johnson’s Brexit minister is a highly significant telltale of the way the wind is blowing among the Brexiteers and former members of the ERG (the so-called European Research Group) . Liz Truss has been wooing them assiduously and it’s rumoured that should she become prime minister Frost wants to serve as her foreign secretary. I suspect Jacob Rees-Mogg would develop an ambition to be her chancellor.
A truly chilling sentence from Parris there. I read that in the actual paper and when I put it down my clammy prints were clear to see.
Then again, the Tories trying to double down on the populist nonsense they’ve inflicted on us these past few years, without the clown’s previously deft touch with the audience, raises the chance that once the people get our say they’ll be put out on their ear for a generation.
Indeed Truss as PM. With Frost, JRM and, presumably, Patel in the 3 great offices of State, may actually confirm the view that the Conservative Party is simply utterly unrepresentative of the views of Britain in the 2020's.
Has a GOOS holder been in the Lords since ww2? Ww1?
Lord Home. Admittedly briefly.
Did he have a choice about being Lord Home? If you had a choice can you do better than Lord Godmanchester?
Bailie Vass's Sunday name originally was Earl of Home. That was a inherited peerage. Then as one of us put it earlier he delorded himself (I imagine with one of those tools shepherds use) and became a commoner and MP. The Lord Home of the Hirsel [in Berwickshire] was the consolation Sunday name when he gave up being a MP. So he was just going back to his roots [edit] and chose accordingly. Like Lord George-Brown.
What I find amazing is there are clearly people around Boris who think if Sue Gray says “technically no rules were broken” that will draw a line under all this. It’s not her opinion that matters. It’s the public’s opinion that matters. How can they not see this. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1482344827840827399
Because they possibly have a more realistic understanding than public opinion and hope for a bit of perspective?
So, yes of course Boris lied through his teeth and allowed/organised work parties at No 10 whilst telling us we couldn't.
But he also got Brexit done. He got the vaccines right. He is quite keen on me going to the pub now, certainly keener than anyone else. My wages are rising quite fast. I have my choice of jobs right now. SKS is a boring, pompous prat.
So, on balance, its still Boris. Never did believe he told the truth anyway, that wasn't really the point.
Now they may be being wildly optimistic about all of this. Probably are. But it is not the no brainer Hodges seems to think it is. My guess, FWIW, is that May will not be the disaster some are predicting, not least because the Tories got hammered in the areas voting in 2019. I have not bet on this but if I had I would still be laying 2022 as an exit date.
Ummm...
It's the 2018 locals that get rerun this time, where the Conservatives did reasonably well.
Next year (2023) is when we replay the 2019 elections (when the Conservatives got mullered).
Boris is undoubtedly unfit to be PM, but Tories agitating for him to go need to reflect on whether he is still the best leader they have.
Is there any reason to expect a successor to command as much deference in the party? Major did not have the respect of his peers or rivals.
Somehow I expect neither Sunak nor Truss will be able to command the party in the same way as Boris. It could be majoresque.
I would not be surprised if there were not leadership rumours before 2024. Boris should go, but the grass may not be greener.
What? WTAF?
That was then. This is now.
Never mind that the deference was never there, they went along with him because he was electable. You seriously think he commands anyone or anything any more?
Lynton Crosby is on the case now.
All restrictions lifted by the end of January. Junior and Senior Civil Servants publicly defesnestrated and Big Dog is saved.
I predict much use of "he needs better people around him".
Just laid an exit by 31 March at 3.7.
Senior Tories are now batting for a May-June exit. Almost everyone else wants him out now.
Thus the almost free money appears to be on Johnson going in 2022. The only way you lose is if senior Tories keep him on until May and somehow the Tory councillors dodge their already scripted role of going down to electoral slaughter.
BF rules state that if Johnson lost a confidence vote or jacked it but agreed to stay on until a successor is found the market settles at the end of this interim period. So no way he goes for the purposes of this market prior to 1 April, as replacement process will drag on longer than this, unless he literally ups sticks and walks.
A Lay of first quarter exit at around 4 with BF is a great bet.
Q1 end is as far in the future as the Paterson vote is in the past. If more than 25% as much shit happens in the future as has happened since then, he is gone
Brave call
Approx ten weeks away. 54 letters plus VONC plus pondering candidates if BJ loses, plus campaigning and whittling down. Then canvassing the membership then membership vote. Is this possible within ten weeks?
Doubt it, but the instant resignation possibility is not worth laying at 4/1.
Boris is undoubtedly unfit to be PM, but Tories agitating for him to go need to reflect on whether he is still the best leader they have.
Is there any reason to expect a successor to command as much deference in the party? Major did not have the respect of his peers or rivals.
Somehow I expect neither Sunak nor Truss will be able to command the party in the same way as Boris. It could be majoresque.
I would not be surprised if there were not leadership rumours before 2024. Boris should go, but the grass may not be greener.
What? WTAF?
That was then. This is now.
Never mind that the deference was never there, they went along with him because he was electable. You seriously think he commands anyone or anything any more?
Lynton Crosby is on the case now.
All restrictions lifted by the end of January. Junior and Senior Civil Servants publicly defesnestrated and Big Dog is saved.
I predict much use of "he needs better people around him".
Just laid an exit by 31 March at 3.7.
Senior Tories are now batting for a May-June exit. Almost everyone else wants him out now.
Thus the almost free money appears to be on Johnson going in 2022. The only way you lose is if senior Tories keep him on until May and somehow the Tory councillors dodge their already scripted role of going down to electoral slaughter.
You also lose if the plan to dispose of him until May is merely an example of procrastination, and becomes a plan to dispose of him by September, or November, then after next winter.
If they really wanted rid of him he would have now gone. They didn't wait until after the Gulf War to push out Thatcher.
I'm a procrastinator. I know it when I see it. They're procrastinating. There's no way of knowing when they will eventually act - but it will be certain that by the time they do they will regret not having acted earlier.
Agreed. If they want to get rid, now is the time. Anything else simply makes them more complicit, and risks him wriggling on the hook for longer and longer.
And if any of them aspire to lead, then some indication of actual leadership might be a good idea...
Sunak's careful statement, effectively "Thank god he finally apologized but, ok, I guess we should just wait for this report" was interesting. One reading of it is he calculates if the contest is now he's the favourite and so is girding up to act. But just what 'act' would mean there, I'm not sure. He can't write 54 letters.
Boris is undoubtedly unfit to be PM, but Tories agitating for him to go need to reflect on whether he is still the best leader they have.
Is there any reason to expect a successor to command as much deference in the party? Major did not have the respect of his peers or rivals.
Somehow I expect neither Sunak nor Truss will be able to command the party in the same way as Boris. It could be majoresque.
I would not be surprised if there were not leadership rumours before 2024. Boris should go, but the grass may not be greener.
What? WTAF?
That was then. This is now.
Never mind that the deference was never there, they went along with him because he was electable. You seriously think he commands anyone or anything any more?
Lynton Crosby is on the case now.
All restrictions lifted by the end of January. Junior and Senior Civil Servants publicly defesnestrated and Big Dog is saved.
I predict much use of "he needs better people around him".
Just laid an exit by 31 March at 3.7.
Senior Tories are now batting for a May-June exit. Almost everyone else wants him out now.
Thus the almost free money appears to be on Johnson going in 2022. The only way you lose is if senior Tories keep him on until May and somehow the Tory councillors dodge their already scripted role of going down to electoral slaughter.
BF rules state that if Johnson lost a confidence vote or jacked it but agreed to stay on until a successor is found the market settles at the end of this interim period. So no way he goes for the purposes of this market prior to 1 April, as replacement process will drag on longer than this, unless he literally ups sticks and walks.
A Lay of first quarter exit at around 4 with BF is a great bet.
Q1 end is as far in the future as the Paterson vote is in the past. If more than 25% as much shit happens in the future as has happened since then, he is gone
Brave call
Approx ten weeks away. 54 letters plus VONC plus pondering candidates if BJ loses, plus campaigning and whittling down. Then canvassing the membership then membership vote. Is this possible within ten weeks?
Doubt it, but the instant resignation possibility is not worth laying at 4/1.
This has been going on for a while now. DeSsntis has particularly been gaining support amongst the anti-lockdown crowd. Personally, I still think he ends up as Trump’s running mate.
Only possible if one of them leaves the State of Florida, or at least registers to vote in another state.
Because US Constitution prohibits election of POTUS and VP from same state.
EDIT - Same applies re: Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL)
Personally think DeSantis is a busted flush. But time will tell.
David (Lord) Frost’s resignation as Johnson’s Brexit minister is a highly significant telltale of the way the wind is blowing among the Brexiteers and former members of the ERG (the so-called European Research Group) . Liz Truss has been wooing them assiduously and it’s rumoured that should she become prime minister Frost wants to serve as her foreign secretary. I suspect Jacob Rees-Mogg would develop an ambition to be her chancellor.
A truly chilling sentence from Parris there. I read that in the actual paper and when I put it down my clammy prints were clear to see.
Then again, the Tories trying to double down on the populist nonsense they’ve inflicted on us these past few years, without the clown’s previously deft touch with the audience, raises the chance that once the people get our say they’ll be put out on their ear for a generation.
Indeed Truss as PM. With Frost, JRM and, presumably, Patel in the 3 great offices of State, may actually confirm the view that the Conservative Party is simply utterly unrepresentative of the views of Britain in the 2020's.
Has a GOOS holder been in the Lords since ww2? Ww1?
Lord Home. Admittedly briefly.
Did he have a choice about being Lord Home? If you had a choice can you do better than Lord Godmanchester?
Bailie Vass's Sunday name originally was Earl of Home. That was a inherited peerage. Then as one of us put it earlier he delorded himself (I imagine with one of those tools shepherds use) and became a commoner and MP. The Lord Home of the Hirsel [in Berwickshire] was the consolation Sunday name when he gave up being a MP. So he was just going back to his roots [edit] and chose accordingly. Like Lord George-Brown.
Boris is undoubtedly unfit to be PM, but Tories agitating for him to go need to reflect on whether he is still the best leader they have.
Is there any reason to expect a successor to command as much deference in the party? Major did not have the respect of his peers or rivals.
Somehow I expect neither Sunak nor Truss will be able to command the party in the same way as Boris. It could be majoresque.
I would not be surprised if there were not leadership rumours before 2024. Boris should go, but the grass may not be greener.
What? WTAF?
That was then. This is now.
Never mind that the deference was never there, they went along with him because he was electable. You seriously think he commands anyone or anything any more?
Lynton Crosby is on the case now.
All restrictions lifted by the end of January. Junior and Senior Civil Servants publicly defesnestrated and Big Dog is saved.
I predict much use of "he needs better people around him".
Just laid an exit by 31 March at 3.7.
Senior Tories are now batting for a May-June exit. Almost everyone else wants him out now.
Thus the almost free money appears to be on Johnson going in 2022. The only way you lose is if senior Tories keep him on until May and somehow the Tory councillors dodge their already scripted role of going down to electoral slaughter.
BF rules state that if Johnson lost a confidence vote or jacked it but agreed to stay on until a successor is found the market settles at the end of this interim period. So no way he goes for the purposes of this market prior to 1 April, as replacement process will drag on longer than this, unless he literally ups sticks and walks.
A Lay of first quarter exit at around 4 with BF is a great bet.
Q1 end is as far in the future as the Paterson vote is in the past. If more than 25% as much shit happens in the future as has happened since then, he is gone
Brave call
Approx ten weeks away. 54 letters plus VONC plus pondering candidates if BJ loses, plus campaigning and whittling down. Then canvassing the membership then membership vote. Is this possible within ten weeks?
Although May's resignation as party leader was pre-announced by a couple of weeks. her stepping down to Boris becoming leader was done in 6 weeks and 4 days.
After a party VONC, I suspect there would be an additional few days at least for the nomination phase, so 8 weeks is a realistic timeline, and there is always the possibility of Boris stepping down immediately as well.
David (Lord) Frost’s resignation as Johnson’s Brexit minister is a highly significant telltale of the way the wind is blowing among the Brexiteers and former members of the ERG (the so-called European Research Group) . Liz Truss has been wooing them assiduously and it’s rumoured that should she become prime minister Frost wants to serve as her foreign secretary. I suspect Jacob Rees-Mogg would develop an ambition to be her chancellor.
See Emily Sheffield’s comments in the Standard last night. The ERG is already teeming up with newly elected MPs worried about their seats and others. They have the numbers so why would they support something like Truss who, to many, backed Remain and has May v 2.0 stamped all over her? Why not put in your own person?
Despite his wealth and upper-class persona, Rees-Mogg does have something of a knack for understanding the cost of living issues for average people. He’s also a successful money person from his previous life, there could be a lot worse people out there as Chancellor candidates.
Rees Mogg would, as leader, be an IDS option. He’d doom the Tories to opposition. They’d be mad to go for him.
If I end up having to root FOR Donald Trump in the battle for the GOP nomination I'm going to take it very badly indeed. Nobody of my ilk and temperament should be put in that position. It could unhinge me.
Boris is the personification of the pandemic. Just as Churchill embodied WWII. He literally is the pandemic. When it is over, all the hurt and grief comes out. Nobody wants to hear about it ever again. The evidence? Tory MP started burbling about vaccines on Any Questions. The reaction? Groans and visceral, gutteral shouts of outrage. And the mere sight of the person acts as a traumatic flashback. Best decision of the week was his going into hiding.
If I end up having to root FOR Donald Trump in the battle for the GOP nomination I'm going to take it very badly indeed. Nobody of my ilk and temperament should be put in that position. It could unhinge me.
I refuse to choose. It is, after all, not our job.
Part of the problem for Boris is his cabinet is selected for loyalty. That leaves a *lot* of disgruntled MPs who dont feel like they have much buy-in. He needed people like Hunt in the cabinet. Too late now.
Boris is undoubtedly unfit to be PM, but Tories agitating for him to go need to reflect on whether he is still the best leader they have.
Is there any reason to expect a successor to command as much deference in the party? Major did not have the respect of his peers or rivals.
Somehow I expect neither Sunak nor Truss will be able to command the party in the same way as Boris. It could be majoresque.
I would not be surprised if there were not leadership rumours before 2024. Boris should go, but the grass may not be greener.
What? WTAF?
That was then. This is now.
Never mind that the deference was never there, they went along with him because he was electable. You seriously think he commands anyone or anything any more?
Lynton Crosby is on the case now.
All restrictions lifted by the end of January. Junior and Senior Civil Servants publicly defesnestrated and Big Dog is saved.
I predict much use of "he needs better people around him".
Just laid an exit by 31 March at 3.7.
Senior Tories are now batting for a May-June exit. Almost everyone else wants him out now.
Thus the almost free money appears to be on Johnson going in 2022. The only way you lose is if senior Tories keep him on until May and somehow the Tory councillors dodge their already scripted role of going down to electoral slaughter.
BF rules state that if Johnson lost a confidence vote or jacked it but agreed to stay on until a successor is found the market settles at the end of this interim period. So no way he goes for the purposes of this market prior to 1 April, as replacement process will drag on longer than this, unless he literally ups sticks and walks.
A Lay of first quarter exit at around 4 with BF is a great bet.
Q1 end is as far in the future as the Paterson vote is in the past. If more than 25% as much shit happens in the future as has happened since then, he is gone
Brave call
Approx ten weeks away. 54 letters plus VONC plus pondering candidates if BJ loses, plus campaigning and whittling down. Then canvassing the membership then membership vote. Is this possible within ten weeks?
24th May 2019: announces that she will stand down as party leader on 7th June 7th June: resigns as party leader, contest starts. 10th June: nominations closed. 13th-20th June: MP ballots 6th July: postal votes sent to members 22nd July: deadline for ballots to be returned 23rd July: ballots counted and Johnson appointed party leader 24th July: May resigns as PM and Johnson kisses the Queen’s hand.
What I find amazing is there are clearly people around Boris who think if Sue Gray says “technically no rules were broken” that will draw a line under all this. It’s not her opinion that matters. It’s the public’s opinion that matters. How can they not see this. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1482344827840827399
Because they possibly have a more realistic understanding than public opinion and hope for a bit of perspective?
So, yes of course Boris lied through his teeth and allowed/organised work parties at No 10 whilst telling us we couldn't.
But he also got Brexit done. He got the vaccines right. He is quite keen on me going to the pub now, certainly keener than anyone else. My wages are rising quite fast. I have my choice of jobs right now. SKS is a boring, pompous prat.
So, on balance, its still Boris. Never did believe he told the truth anyway, that wasn't really the point.
Now they may be being wildly optimistic about all of this. Probably are. But it is not the no brainer Hodges seems to think it is. My guess, FWIW, is that May will not be the disaster some are predicting, not least because the Tories got hammered in the areas voting in 2019. I have not bet on this but if I had I would still be laying 2022 as an exit date.
Ummm...
It's the 2018 locals that get rerun this time, where the Conservatives did reasonably well.
Next year (2023) is when we replay the 2019 elections (when the Conservatives got mullered).
They did lost 1000+ councillors but that's because it was both the 'big round' of local elections and that the Conservatives were starting from the high point of 2015.
That Labour and the LibDems performed so weakly in May 2019 was an indicator of what a general election could be and indeed would be.
What might be different this May is the Conservatives really being mullered on the NEV.
David (Lord) Frost’s resignation as Johnson’s Brexit minister is a highly significant telltale of the way the wind is blowing among the Brexiteers and former members of the ERG (the so-called European Research Group) . Liz Truss has been wooing them assiduously and it’s rumoured that should she become prime minister Frost wants to serve as her foreign secretary. I suspect Jacob Rees-Mogg would develop an ambition to be her chancellor.
See Emily Sheffield’s comments in the Standard last night. The ERG is already teeming up with newly elected MPs worried about their seats and others. They have the numbers so why would they support something like Truss who, to many, backed Remain and has May v 2.0 stamped all over her? Why not put in your own person?
Despite his wealth and upper-class persona, Rees-Mogg does have something of a knack for understanding the cost of living issues for average people. He’s also a successful money person from his previous life, there could be a lot worse people out there as Chancellor candidates.
Rees Mogg would, as leader, be an IDS option. He’d doom the Tories to opposition. They’d be mad to go for him.
The suggestion is that he goes for the Chancellor position under Truss, rather than the leadership position. I agree he’d be the wrong choice as PM.
Due to data lag it looks like SA deaths may have peaked in week 52, not now (week 2). When I stopped tracking week 52 they had recorded 704 deaths for the week. Two weeks later and week 52 now stands a 996 deaths.
This does demonstrate the problem with trying to extrapolate things from SA data.
Donald Trump: MY NAME IS DONALD TRUMP, I PLAN TO STEAL THE NEXT ELECTION *Cut to 2024* American Pundits: It is absolutely astounding that Trump has stolen the election, no-one saw it coming. Completely blindsided us.
This has been going on for a while now. DeSsntis has particularly been gaining support amongst the anti-lockdown crowd. Personally, I still think he ends up as Trump’s running mate.
Only possible if one of them leaves the State of Florida, or at least registers to vote in another state.
Because US Constitution prohibits election of POTUS and VP from same state.
EDIT - Same applies re: Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL)
Personally think DeSantis is a busted flush. But time will tell.
Trump could readily register in New York, if he isn't already, I imagine?
Boris is undoubtedly unfit to be PM, but Tories agitating for him to go need to reflect on whether he is still the best leader they have.
Is there any reason to expect a successor to command as much deference in the party? Major did not have the respect of his peers or rivals.
Somehow I expect neither Sunak nor Truss will be able to command the party in the same way as Boris. It could be majoresque.
I would not be surprised if there were not leadership rumours before 2024. Boris should go, but the grass may not be greener.
What? WTAF?
That was then. This is now.
Never mind that the deference was never there, they went along with him because he was electable. You seriously think he commands anyone or anything any more?
Lynton Crosby is on the case now.
All restrictions lifted by the end of January. Junior and Senior Civil Servants publicly defesnestrated and Big Dog is saved.
I predict much use of "he needs better people around him".
Just laid an exit by 31 March at 3.7.
Senior Tories are now batting for a May-June exit. Almost everyone else wants him out now.
Thus the almost free money appears to be on Johnson going in 2022. The only way you lose is if senior Tories keep him on until May and somehow the Tory councillors dodge their already scripted role of going down to electoral slaughter.
BF rules state that if Johnson lost a confidence vote or jacked it but agreed to stay on until a successor is found the market settles at the end of this interim period. So no way he goes for the purposes of this market prior to 1 April, as replacement process will drag on longer than this, unless he literally ups sticks and walks.
A Lay of first quarter exit at around 4 with BF is a great bet.
Q1 end is as far in the future as the Paterson vote is in the past. If more than 25% as much shit happens in the future as has happened since then, he is gone
Brave call
Approx ten weeks away. 54 letters plus VONC plus pondering candidates if BJ loses, plus campaigning and whittling down. Then canvassing the membership then membership vote. Is this possible within ten weeks?
24th May 2019: announces that she will stand down as party leader on 7th June 7th June: resigns as party leader, contest starts. 10th June: nominations closed. 13th-20th June: MP ballots 6th July: postal votes sent to members 22nd July: deadline for ballots to be returned 23rd July: ballots counted and Johnson appointed party leader 24th July: May resigns as PM and Johnson kisses the Queen’s hand.
Exactly two months, 61 days, start to finish.
Who says it is going to get anywhere near the members, this time?
Comments
It's the 2018 locals that get rerun this time, where the Conservatives did reasonably well.
Next year (2023) is when we replay the 2019 elections (when the Conservatives got mullered).
Edit: BF 4 - so 3/1 not 4/1 BTW
Because US Constitution prohibits election of POTUS and VP from same state.
EDIT - Same applies re: Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL)
Personally think DeSantis is a busted flush. But time will tell.
😂
After a party VONC, I suspect there would be an additional few days at least for the nomination phase, so 8 weeks is a realistic timeline, and there is always the possibility of Boris stepping down immediately as well.
Just as Churchill embodied WWII.
He literally is the pandemic.
When it is over, all the hurt and grief comes out.
Nobody wants to hear about it ever again. The evidence? Tory MP started burbling about vaccines on Any Questions. The reaction? Groans and visceral, gutteral shouts of outrage.
And the mere sight of the person acts as a traumatic flashback.
Best decision of the week was his going into hiding.
It is, after all, not our job.
Keep your enemies closer, and all that.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Conservative_Party_leadership_election
24th May 2019: announces that she will stand down as party leader on 7th June
7th June: resigns as party leader, contest starts.
10th June: nominations closed.
13th-20th June: MP ballots
6th July: postal votes sent to members
22nd July: deadline for ballots to be returned
23rd July: ballots counted and Johnson appointed party leader
24th July: May resigns as PM and Johnson kisses the Queen’s hand.
Exactly two months, 61 days, start to finish.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections
They did lost 1000+ councillors but that's because it was both the 'big round' of local elections and that the Conservatives were starting from the high point of 2015.
That Labour and the LibDems performed so weakly in May 2019 was an indicator of what a general election could be and indeed would be.
What might be different this May is the Conservatives really being mullered on the NEV.
Due to data lag it looks like SA deaths may have peaked in week 52, not now (week 2). When I stopped tracking week 52 they had recorded 704 deaths for the week. Two weeks later and week 52 now stands a 996 deaths.
This does demonstrate the problem with trying to extrapolate things from SA data.
*Cut to 2024*
American Pundits: It is absolutely astounding that Trump has stolen the election, no-one saw it coming. Completely blindsided us.
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1482355548565745670