What, for example, would it say about our perennial brag that we are a society subject to the rule of law that the man who sets the rules is allowed to break them and break them so egregiously?
What will it say about the supposedly unbreakable convention that a minister who lies to or misleads the House of Commons has to resign? Johnson was guilty of that on Wednesday with that “work event” nonsense, but it was hardly the first time.
Johnson’s fate will be decided not by [Gray] but by politics: initially by MPs and, if necessary, by the people. Johnson’s former editor at the Telegraph, Max Hastings, once wrote that if Johnson, a man he believed “would not recognise truth if confronted by it in an identity parade” became prime minister, it would demonstrate that Britain was no longer “a serious country”. If we allow Johnson to stay as prime minister, given all that he’s done and all that we’ve seen, it would say something far, far worse.
This fails to take account of the fact of choice. Unless Max Hastings thinks that PM Jezza would show us as a serious country (!) he has to take account of the fact that the serious voter had to choose between two sub optimal people, one touched by a sort of flawed genius, the other a passive aggressive anti Semite.
And as for "we" allowing him to remain....that is not in the gift of "we" until a GE. So it says nothing about "we" at all.
David (Lord) Frost’s resignation as Johnson’s Brexit minister is a highly significant telltale of the way the wind is blowing among the Brexiteers and former members of the ERG (the so-called European Research Group) . Liz Truss has been wooing them assiduously and it’s rumoured that should she become prime minister Frost wants to serve as her foreign secretary. I suspect Jacob Rees-Mogg would develop an ambition to be her chancellor.
See Emily Sheffield’s comments in the Standard last night. The ERG is already teeming up with newly elected MPs worried about their seats and others. They have the numbers so why would they support something like Truss who, to many, backed Remain and has May v 2.0 stamped all over her? Why not put in your own person?
Despite his wealth and upper-class persona, Rees-Mogg does have something of a knack for understanding the cost of living issues for average people. He’s also a successful money person from his previous life, there could be a lot worse people out there as Chancellor candidates.
What I find amazing is there are clearly people around Boris who think if Sue Gray says “technically no rules were broken” that will draw a line under all this. It’s not her opinion that matters. It’s the public’s opinion that matters. How can they not see this. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1482344827840827399
Because they possibly have a more realistic understanding than public opinion and hope for a bit of perspective?
So, yes of course Boris lied through his teeth and allowed/organised work parties at No 10 whilst telling us we couldn't.
But he also got Brexit done. He got the vaccines right. He is quite keen on me going to the pub now, certainly keener than anyone else. My wages are rising quite fast. I have my choice of jobs right now. SKS is a boring, pompous prat.
So, on balance, its still Boris. Never did believe he told the truth anyway, that wasn't really the point.
Now they may be being wildly optimistic about all of this. Probably are. But it is not the no brainer Hodges seems to think it is. My guess, FWIW, is that May will not be the disaster some are predicting, not least because the Tories got hammered in the areas voting in 2019. I have not bet on this but if I had I would still be laying 2022 as an exit date.
Wow!
Not saying that is my view. Just what I think Boris will be hoping for. I would have forgiven the misjudgements about allowing people to drink after work quite readily. The fact he lied and lied and lied about it is deeply troubling.
What I find unacceptable is the level of stupidity of those involved.
The Paterson saga was another example.
Nor does there seem any willingness or ability to learn from their mistakes.
Making mistakes might be acceptable but not learning from them never is.
Yeah, stupidity is always annoying. Hypocrite that I am.
It would be interesting to know the backgrounds of everyone involved.
I suspect that certain schools and two universities will dominate.
I'm beginning to think that having been to either of those universities should now preclude people from any senior position.
David (Lord) Frost’s resignation as Johnson’s Brexit minister is a highly significant telltale of the way the wind is blowing among the Brexiteers and former members of the ERG (the so-called European Research Group) . Liz Truss has been wooing them assiduously and it’s rumoured that should she become prime minister Frost wants to serve as her foreign secretary. I suspect Jacob Rees-Mogg would develop an ambition to be her chancellor.
See Emily Sheffield’s comments in the Standard last night. The ERG is already teeming up with newly elected MPs worried about their seats and others. They have the numbers so why would they support something like Truss who, to many, backed Remain and has May v 2.0 stamped all over her? Why not put in your own person?
Despite his wealth and upper-class persona, Rees-Mogg does have something of a knack for understanding the cost of living issues for average people. He’s also a successful money person from his previous life, there could be a lot worse people out there as Chancellor candidates.
Rees-Mogg the populist. LOL
You have to admit, there is something positively Dickensian about the image.
David (Lord) Frost’s resignation as Johnson’s Brexit minister is a highly significant telltale of the way the wind is blowing among the Brexiteers and former members of the ERG (the so-called European Research Group) . Liz Truss has been wooing them assiduously and it’s rumoured that should she become prime minister Frost wants to serve as her foreign secretary. I suspect Jacob Rees-Mogg would develop an ambition to be her chancellor.
A truly chilling sentence from Parris there. I read that in the actual paper and when I put it down my clammy prints were clear to see.
Then again, the Tories trying to double down on the populist nonsense they’ve inflicted on us these past few years, without the clown’s previously deft touch with the audience, raises the chance that once the people get our say they’ll be put out on their ear for a generation.
Indeed Truss as PM. With Frost, JRM and, presumably, Patel in the 3 great offices of State, may actually confirm the view that the Conservative Party is simply utterly unrepresentative of the views of Britain in the 2020's.
Has a GOOS holder been in the Lords since ww2? Ww1?
Lord Home. Admittedly briefly.
Did he have a choice about being Lord Home? If you had a choice can you do better than Lord Godmanchester?
"For all his faults, there is no other Tory politician who has Boris Johnson's political reach The Prime Minister's chief policy is turning out to be a success. MPs should not force him to resign merely as an act of fury CHARLES MOORE"
"For all his faults, there is no other Tory politician who has Boris Johnson's political reach The Prime Minister's chief policy is turning out to be a success. MPs should not force him to resign merely as an act of fury CHARLES MOORE"
That is really interesting. He thinks Dom has only recently realised that partygate is the way to slay the dragon - ie by implication that it isn't what Dom had over him at eye test time
Mind you there's the illegal commuting DSt to Chequers which came out yesterday, perhaps it was that
Barnard Castle is also to some degree an answer to Dan Hodges question earlier. How do they think they can get away with it? Cos they did before.
David (Lord) Frost’s resignation as Johnson’s Brexit minister is a highly significant telltale of the way the wind is blowing among the Brexiteers and former members of the ERG (the so-called European Research Group) . Liz Truss has been wooing them assiduously and it’s rumoured that should she become prime minister Frost wants to serve as her foreign secretary. I suspect Jacob Rees-Mogg would develop an ambition to be her chancellor.
A truly chilling sentence from Parris there. I read that in the actual paper and when I put it down my clammy prints were clear to see.
Then again, the Tories trying to double down on the populist nonsense they’ve inflicted on us these past few years, without the clown’s previously deft touch with the audience, raises the chance that once the people get our say they’ll be put out on their ear for a generation.
Indeed Truss as PM. With Frost, JRM and, presumably, Patel in the 3 great offices of State, may actually confirm the view that the Conservative Party is simply utterly unrepresentative of the views of Britain in the 2020's.
Has a GOOS holder been in the Lords since ww2? Ww1?
Last was Lord Carrington, 1982.
Previously Home (Foreign Secretary 1961-63).
Several in the 1920s - Curzon, Halifax both spring to mind. (Edit - also the Marquess of Reading.)
Can't think of anyone other than a Foreign Secretary who has been in the Lords since 1902, however, with the 48 hour exception of Home.
OK, name the ERG candidate that has a batter chance of winning the membership vote than Truss?
I mentioned McVey the other day as a good outside bet because she combines both the ERG and Red Wall Tories wings (and has been consistently anti-restrictions). Harper probably could be considered a candidate (less chance I think because I’m not sure new Tory MPs consider him attractive to the RW).
But, just to check, you think everyone on the ERG are essentially Mark Francois?
"For all his faults, there is no other Tory politician who has Boris Johnson's political reach The Prime Minister's chief policy is turning out to be a success. MPs should not force him to resign merely as an act of fury CHARLES MOORE"
David (Lord) Frost’s resignation as Johnson’s Brexit minister is a highly significant telltale of the way the wind is blowing among the Brexiteers and former members of the ERG (the so-called European Research Group) . Liz Truss has been wooing them assiduously and it’s rumoured that should she become prime minister Frost wants to serve as her foreign secretary. I suspect Jacob Rees-Mogg would develop an ambition to be her chancellor.
A truly chilling sentence from Parris there. I read that in the actual paper and when I put it down my clammy prints were clear to see.
Then again, the Tories trying to double down on the populist nonsense they’ve inflicted on us these past few years, without the clown’s previously deft touch with the audience, raises the chance that once the people get our say they’ll be put out on their ear for a generation.
Indeed Truss as PM. With Frost, JRM and, presumably, Patel in the 3 great offices of State, may actually confirm the view that the Conservative Party is simply utterly unrepresentative of the views of Britain in the 2020's.
Has a GOOS holder been in the Lords since ww2? Ww1?
Last was Lord Carrington, 1982.
Previously Home (Foreign Secretary 1961-63).
Several in the 1920s - Curzon, Halifax both spring to mind. (Edit - also the Marquess of Reading.)
Can't think of anyone other than a Foreign Secretary who has been in the Lords since 1902, however, with the 48 hour exception of Home.
Boris is undoubtedly unfit to be PM, but Tories agitating for him to go need to reflect on whether he is still the best leader they have.
Is there any reason to expect a successor to command as much deference in the party? Major did not have the respect of his peers or rivals.
Somehow I expect neither Sunak nor Truss will be able to command the party in the same way as Boris. It could be majoresque.
I would not be surprised if there were not leadership rumours before 2024. Boris should go, but the grass may not be greener.
What? WTAF?
That was then. This is now.
Never mind that the deference was never there, they went along with him because he was electable. You seriously think he commands anyone or anything any more?
Lynton Crosby is on the case now.
All restrictions lifted by the end of January. Junior and Senior Civil Servants publicly defesnestrated and Big Dog is saved.
I predict much use of "he needs better people around him".
Just laid an exit by 31 March at 3.7.
Senior Tories are now batting for a May-June exit. Almost everyone else wants him out now.
Thus the almost free money appears to be on Johnson going in 2022. The only way you lose is if senior Tories keep him on until May and somehow the Tory councillors dodge their already scripted role of going down to electoral slaughter.
BF rules state that if Johnson lost a confidence vote or jacked it but agreed to stay on until a successor is found the market settles at the end of this interim period. So no way he goes for the purposes of this market prior to 1 April, as replacement process will drag on longer than this, unless he literally ups sticks and walks.
A Lay of first quarter exit at around 4 with BF is a great bet.
Q1 end is as far in the future as the Paterson vote is in the past. If more than 25% as much shit happens in the future as has happened since then, he is gone
Brave call
Approx ten weeks away. 54 letters plus VONC plus pondering candidates if BJ loses, plus campaigning and whittling down. Then canvassing the membership then membership vote. Is this possible within ten weeks?
So party gate is now at year 1 primary school level of cut through. @ThatRyanChap
But everyone (Primary aged children excepted) has known that BoJo is a liar, basically forever.
It's just that the standard response was to either ignore it, or even celebrate it as part of getting one over on The Man.
So what's different now?
I think dixiedean's explanation for this is spot on - Boris Johnson has offered himself up as a scapegoat for everyone's pain, hurt, grief, loss, annoyance and anger that they have stored up over the 22 months of the pandemic, and now that the pandemic is over (thanks to vaccination and a milder variant), they finally have some time and space to come to terms with what they've suffered. And now it is all Boris Johnson's fault. And by extension the Conservative Party's fault for having such a useless and dishonest leader at a time of national crisis.
If this is right, then it's an epochal shift in political sentiment to rank alongside the Winter of Discontent, Black Wednesday and "There's No Money Left".
The next election would also be an opportunity to test how much Tony Blair contributed to the landslide of 1997, or whether John Smith would likely have won a similar scale of victory.
Thanks, my friend. I wondered if anyone had read, let alone understood, the point I've been trying to make.
"For all his faults, there is no other Tory politician who has Boris Johnson's political reach The Prime Minister's chief policy is turning out to be a success. MPs should not force him to resign merely as an act of fury CHARLES MOORE"
What I find amazing is there are clearly people around Boris who think if Sue Gray says “technically no rules were broken” that will draw a line under all this. It’s not her opinion that matters. It’s the public’s opinion that matters. How can they not see this. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1482344827840827399
Because they possibly have a more realistic understanding than public opinion and hope for a bit of perspective?
So, yes of course Boris lied through his teeth and allowed/organised work parties at No 10 whilst telling us we couldn't.
But he also got Brexit done. He got the vaccines right. He is quite keen on me going to the pub now, certainly keener than anyone else. My wages are rising quite fast. I have my choice of jobs right now. SKS is a boring, pompous prat.
So, on balance, its still Boris. Never did believe he told the truth anyway, that wasn't really the point.
Now they may be being wildly optimistic about all of this. Probably are. But it is not the no brainer Hodges seems to think it is. My guess, FWIW, is that May will not be the disaster some are predicting, not least because the Tories got hammered in the areas voting in 2019. I have not bet on this but if I had I would still be laying 2022 as an exit date.
Wow!
Not saying that is my view. Just what I think Boris will be hoping for. I would have forgiven the misjudgements about allowing people to drink after work quite readily. The fact he lied and lied and lied about it is deeply troubling.
What I find unacceptable is the level of stupidity of those involved.
The Paterson saga was another example.
Nor does there seem any willingness or ability to learn from their mistakes.
Making mistakes might be acceptable but not learning from them never is.
Yeah, stupidity is always annoying. Hypocrite that I am.
It would be interesting to know the backgrounds of everyone involved.
I suspect that certain schools and two universities will dominate.
I'm beginning to think that having been to either of those universities should now preclude people from any senior position.
I think it is more to do with individuals with half a brain from those institutions don't entertain the idea of going into politics, there are so many better options.
David (Lord) Frost’s resignation as Johnson’s Brexit minister is a highly significant telltale of the way the wind is blowing among the Brexiteers and former members of the ERG (the so-called European Research Group) . Liz Truss has been wooing them assiduously and it’s rumoured that should she become prime minister Frost wants to serve as her foreign secretary. I suspect Jacob Rees-Mogg would develop an ambition to be her chancellor.
A truly chilling sentence from Parris there. I read that in the actual paper and when I put it down my clammy prints were clear to see.
Then again, the Tories trying to double down on the populist nonsense they’ve inflicted on us these past few years, without the clown’s previously deft touch with the audience, raises the chance that once the people get our say they’ll be put out on their ear for a generation.
Indeed Truss as PM. With Frost, JRM and, presumably, Patel in the 3 great offices of State, may actually confirm the view that the Conservative Party is simply utterly unrepresentative of the views of Britain in the 2020's.
Has a GOOS holder been in the Lords since ww2? Ww1?
Lord Home. Admittedly briefly.
Did he have a choice about being Lord Home? If you had a choice can you do better than Lord Godmanchester?
Bailie Vass's Sunday name originally was Earl of Home. That was a inherited peerage. Then as one of us put it earlier he delorded himself (I imagine with one of those tools shepherds use) and became a commoner and MP. The Lord Home of the Hirsel [in Berwickshire] was the consolation Sunday name when he gave up being a MP. So he was just going back to his roots [edit] and chose accordingly. Like Lord George-Brown.
What I find amazing is there are clearly people around Boris who think if Sue Gray says “technically no rules were broken” that will draw a line under all this. It’s not her opinion that matters. It’s the public’s opinion that matters. How can they not see this. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1482344827840827399
Because they possibly have a more realistic understanding than public opinion and hope for a bit of perspective?
So, yes of course Boris lied through his teeth and allowed/organised work parties at No 10 whilst telling us we couldn't.
But he also got Brexit done. He got the vaccines right. He is quite keen on me going to the pub now, certainly keener than anyone else. My wages are rising quite fast. I have my choice of jobs right now. SKS is a boring, pompous prat.
So, on balance, its still Boris. Never did believe he told the truth anyway, that wasn't really the point.
Now they may be being wildly optimistic about all of this. Probably are. But it is not the no brainer Hodges seems to think it is. My guess, FWIW, is that May will not be the disaster some are predicting, not least because the Tories got hammered in the areas voting in 2019. I have not bet on this but if I had I would still be laying 2022 as an exit date.
Ummm...
It's the 2018 locals that get rerun this time, where the Conservatives did reasonably well.
Next year (2023) is when we replay the 2019 elections (when the Conservatives got mullered).
Boris is undoubtedly unfit to be PM, but Tories agitating for him to go need to reflect on whether he is still the best leader they have.
Is there any reason to expect a successor to command as much deference in the party? Major did not have the respect of his peers or rivals.
Somehow I expect neither Sunak nor Truss will be able to command the party in the same way as Boris. It could be majoresque.
I would not be surprised if there were not leadership rumours before 2024. Boris should go, but the grass may not be greener.
What? WTAF?
That was then. This is now.
Never mind that the deference was never there, they went along with him because he was electable. You seriously think he commands anyone or anything any more?
Lynton Crosby is on the case now.
All restrictions lifted by the end of January. Junior and Senior Civil Servants publicly defesnestrated and Big Dog is saved.
I predict much use of "he needs better people around him".
Just laid an exit by 31 March at 3.7.
Senior Tories are now batting for a May-June exit. Almost everyone else wants him out now.
Thus the almost free money appears to be on Johnson going in 2022. The only way you lose is if senior Tories keep him on until May and somehow the Tory councillors dodge their already scripted role of going down to electoral slaughter.
BF rules state that if Johnson lost a confidence vote or jacked it but agreed to stay on until a successor is found the market settles at the end of this interim period. So no way he goes for the purposes of this market prior to 1 April, as replacement process will drag on longer than this, unless he literally ups sticks and walks.
A Lay of first quarter exit at around 4 with BF is a great bet.
Q1 end is as far in the future as the Paterson vote is in the past. If more than 25% as much shit happens in the future as has happened since then, he is gone
Brave call
Approx ten weeks away. 54 letters plus VONC plus pondering candidates if BJ loses, plus campaigning and whittling down. Then canvassing the membership then membership vote. Is this possible within ten weeks?
Doubt it, but the instant resignation possibility is not worth laying at 4/1.
Boris is undoubtedly unfit to be PM, but Tories agitating for him to go need to reflect on whether he is still the best leader they have.
Is there any reason to expect a successor to command as much deference in the party? Major did not have the respect of his peers or rivals.
Somehow I expect neither Sunak nor Truss will be able to command the party in the same way as Boris. It could be majoresque.
I would not be surprised if there were not leadership rumours before 2024. Boris should go, but the grass may not be greener.
What? WTAF?
That was then. This is now.
Never mind that the deference was never there, they went along with him because he was electable. You seriously think he commands anyone or anything any more?
Lynton Crosby is on the case now.
All restrictions lifted by the end of January. Junior and Senior Civil Servants publicly defesnestrated and Big Dog is saved.
I predict much use of "he needs better people around him".
Just laid an exit by 31 March at 3.7.
Senior Tories are now batting for a May-June exit. Almost everyone else wants him out now.
Thus the almost free money appears to be on Johnson going in 2022. The only way you lose is if senior Tories keep him on until May and somehow the Tory councillors dodge their already scripted role of going down to electoral slaughter.
You also lose if the plan to dispose of him until May is merely an example of procrastination, and becomes a plan to dispose of him by September, or November, then after next winter.
If they really wanted rid of him he would have now gone. They didn't wait until after the Gulf War to push out Thatcher.
I'm a procrastinator. I know it when I see it. They're procrastinating. There's no way of knowing when they will eventually act - but it will be certain that by the time they do they will regret not having acted earlier.
Agreed. If they want to get rid, now is the time. Anything else simply makes them more complicit, and risks him wriggling on the hook for longer and longer.
And if any of them aspire to lead, then some indication of actual leadership might be a good idea...
Sunak's careful statement, effectively "Thank god he finally apologized but, ok, I guess we should just wait for this report" was interesting. One reading of it is he calculates if the contest is now he's the favourite and so is girding up to act. But just what 'act' would mean there, I'm not sure. He can't write 54 letters.
Boris is undoubtedly unfit to be PM, but Tories agitating for him to go need to reflect on whether he is still the best leader they have.
Is there any reason to expect a successor to command as much deference in the party? Major did not have the respect of his peers or rivals.
Somehow I expect neither Sunak nor Truss will be able to command the party in the same way as Boris. It could be majoresque.
I would not be surprised if there were not leadership rumours before 2024. Boris should go, but the grass may not be greener.
What? WTAF?
That was then. This is now.
Never mind that the deference was never there, they went along with him because he was electable. You seriously think he commands anyone or anything any more?
Lynton Crosby is on the case now.
All restrictions lifted by the end of January. Junior and Senior Civil Servants publicly defesnestrated and Big Dog is saved.
I predict much use of "he needs better people around him".
Just laid an exit by 31 March at 3.7.
Senior Tories are now batting for a May-June exit. Almost everyone else wants him out now.
Thus the almost free money appears to be on Johnson going in 2022. The only way you lose is if senior Tories keep him on until May and somehow the Tory councillors dodge their already scripted role of going down to electoral slaughter.
BF rules state that if Johnson lost a confidence vote or jacked it but agreed to stay on until a successor is found the market settles at the end of this interim period. So no way he goes for the purposes of this market prior to 1 April, as replacement process will drag on longer than this, unless he literally ups sticks and walks.
A Lay of first quarter exit at around 4 with BF is a great bet.
Q1 end is as far in the future as the Paterson vote is in the past. If more than 25% as much shit happens in the future as has happened since then, he is gone
Brave call
Approx ten weeks away. 54 letters plus VONC plus pondering candidates if BJ loses, plus campaigning and whittling down. Then canvassing the membership then membership vote. Is this possible within ten weeks?
Doubt it, but the instant resignation possibility is not worth laying at 4/1.
This has been going on for a while now. DeSsntis has particularly been gaining support amongst the anti-lockdown crowd. Personally, I still think he ends up as Trump’s running mate.
Only possible if one of them leaves the State of Florida, or at least registers to vote in another state.
Because US Constitution prohibits election of POTUS and VP from same state.
EDIT - Same applies re: Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL)
Personally think DeSantis is a busted flush. But time will tell.
David (Lord) Frost’s resignation as Johnson’s Brexit minister is a highly significant telltale of the way the wind is blowing among the Brexiteers and former members of the ERG (the so-called European Research Group) . Liz Truss has been wooing them assiduously and it’s rumoured that should she become prime minister Frost wants to serve as her foreign secretary. I suspect Jacob Rees-Mogg would develop an ambition to be her chancellor.
A truly chilling sentence from Parris there. I read that in the actual paper and when I put it down my clammy prints were clear to see.
Then again, the Tories trying to double down on the populist nonsense they’ve inflicted on us these past few years, without the clown’s previously deft touch with the audience, raises the chance that once the people get our say they’ll be put out on their ear for a generation.
Indeed Truss as PM. With Frost, JRM and, presumably, Patel in the 3 great offices of State, may actually confirm the view that the Conservative Party is simply utterly unrepresentative of the views of Britain in the 2020's.
Has a GOOS holder been in the Lords since ww2? Ww1?
Lord Home. Admittedly briefly.
Did he have a choice about being Lord Home? If you had a choice can you do better than Lord Godmanchester?
Bailie Vass's Sunday name originally was Earl of Home. That was a inherited peerage. Then as one of us put it earlier he delorded himself (I imagine with one of those tools shepherds use) and became a commoner and MP. The Lord Home of the Hirsel [in Berwickshire] was the consolation Sunday name when he gave up being a MP. So he was just going back to his roots [edit] and chose accordingly. Like Lord George-Brown.
Boris is undoubtedly unfit to be PM, but Tories agitating for him to go need to reflect on whether he is still the best leader they have.
Is there any reason to expect a successor to command as much deference in the party? Major did not have the respect of his peers or rivals.
Somehow I expect neither Sunak nor Truss will be able to command the party in the same way as Boris. It could be majoresque.
I would not be surprised if there were not leadership rumours before 2024. Boris should go, but the grass may not be greener.
What? WTAF?
That was then. This is now.
Never mind that the deference was never there, they went along with him because he was electable. You seriously think he commands anyone or anything any more?
Lynton Crosby is on the case now.
All restrictions lifted by the end of January. Junior and Senior Civil Servants publicly defesnestrated and Big Dog is saved.
I predict much use of "he needs better people around him".
Just laid an exit by 31 March at 3.7.
Senior Tories are now batting for a May-June exit. Almost everyone else wants him out now.
Thus the almost free money appears to be on Johnson going in 2022. The only way you lose is if senior Tories keep him on until May and somehow the Tory councillors dodge their already scripted role of going down to electoral slaughter.
BF rules state that if Johnson lost a confidence vote or jacked it but agreed to stay on until a successor is found the market settles at the end of this interim period. So no way he goes for the purposes of this market prior to 1 April, as replacement process will drag on longer than this, unless he literally ups sticks and walks.
A Lay of first quarter exit at around 4 with BF is a great bet.
Q1 end is as far in the future as the Paterson vote is in the past. If more than 25% as much shit happens in the future as has happened since then, he is gone
Brave call
Approx ten weeks away. 54 letters plus VONC plus pondering candidates if BJ loses, plus campaigning and whittling down. Then canvassing the membership then membership vote. Is this possible within ten weeks?
Although May's resignation as party leader was pre-announced by a couple of weeks. her stepping down to Boris becoming leader was done in 6 weeks and 4 days.
After a party VONC, I suspect there would be an additional few days at least for the nomination phase, so 8 weeks is a realistic timeline, and there is always the possibility of Boris stepping down immediately as well.
David (Lord) Frost’s resignation as Johnson’s Brexit minister is a highly significant telltale of the way the wind is blowing among the Brexiteers and former members of the ERG (the so-called European Research Group) . Liz Truss has been wooing them assiduously and it’s rumoured that should she become prime minister Frost wants to serve as her foreign secretary. I suspect Jacob Rees-Mogg would develop an ambition to be her chancellor.
See Emily Sheffield’s comments in the Standard last night. The ERG is already teeming up with newly elected MPs worried about their seats and others. They have the numbers so why would they support something like Truss who, to many, backed Remain and has May v 2.0 stamped all over her? Why not put in your own person?
Despite his wealth and upper-class persona, Rees-Mogg does have something of a knack for understanding the cost of living issues for average people. He’s also a successful money person from his previous life, there could be a lot worse people out there as Chancellor candidates.
Rees Mogg would, as leader, be an IDS option. He’d doom the Tories to opposition. They’d be mad to go for him.
If I end up having to root FOR Donald Trump in the battle for the GOP nomination I'm going to take it very badly indeed. Nobody of my ilk and temperament should be put in that position. It could unhinge me.
Boris is the personification of the pandemic. Just as Churchill embodied WWII. He literally is the pandemic. When it is over, all the hurt and grief comes out. Nobody wants to hear about it ever again. The evidence? Tory MP started burbling about vaccines on Any Questions. The reaction? Groans and visceral, gutteral shouts of outrage. And the mere sight of the person acts as a traumatic flashback. Best decision of the week was his going into hiding.
If I end up having to root FOR Donald Trump in the battle for the GOP nomination I'm going to take it very badly indeed. Nobody of my ilk and temperament should be put in that position. It could unhinge me.
I refuse to choose. It is, after all, not our job.
Part of the problem for Boris is his cabinet is selected for loyalty. That leaves a *lot* of disgruntled MPs who dont feel like they have much buy-in. He needed people like Hunt in the cabinet. Too late now.
Boris is undoubtedly unfit to be PM, but Tories agitating for him to go need to reflect on whether he is still the best leader they have.
Is there any reason to expect a successor to command as much deference in the party? Major did not have the respect of his peers or rivals.
Somehow I expect neither Sunak nor Truss will be able to command the party in the same way as Boris. It could be majoresque.
I would not be surprised if there were not leadership rumours before 2024. Boris should go, but the grass may not be greener.
What? WTAF?
That was then. This is now.
Never mind that the deference was never there, they went along with him because he was electable. You seriously think he commands anyone or anything any more?
Lynton Crosby is on the case now.
All restrictions lifted by the end of January. Junior and Senior Civil Servants publicly defesnestrated and Big Dog is saved.
I predict much use of "he needs better people around him".
Just laid an exit by 31 March at 3.7.
Senior Tories are now batting for a May-June exit. Almost everyone else wants him out now.
Thus the almost free money appears to be on Johnson going in 2022. The only way you lose is if senior Tories keep him on until May and somehow the Tory councillors dodge their already scripted role of going down to electoral slaughter.
BF rules state that if Johnson lost a confidence vote or jacked it but agreed to stay on until a successor is found the market settles at the end of this interim period. So no way he goes for the purposes of this market prior to 1 April, as replacement process will drag on longer than this, unless he literally ups sticks and walks.
A Lay of first quarter exit at around 4 with BF is a great bet.
Q1 end is as far in the future as the Paterson vote is in the past. If more than 25% as much shit happens in the future as has happened since then, he is gone
Brave call
Approx ten weeks away. 54 letters plus VONC plus pondering candidates if BJ loses, plus campaigning and whittling down. Then canvassing the membership then membership vote. Is this possible within ten weeks?
24th May 2019: announces that she will stand down as party leader on 7th June 7th June: resigns as party leader, contest starts. 10th June: nominations closed. 13th-20th June: MP ballots 6th July: postal votes sent to members 22nd July: deadline for ballots to be returned 23rd July: ballots counted and Johnson appointed party leader 24th July: May resigns as PM and Johnson kisses the Queen’s hand.
What I find amazing is there are clearly people around Boris who think if Sue Gray says “technically no rules were broken” that will draw a line under all this. It’s not her opinion that matters. It’s the public’s opinion that matters. How can they not see this. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1482344827840827399
Because they possibly have a more realistic understanding than public opinion and hope for a bit of perspective?
So, yes of course Boris lied through his teeth and allowed/organised work parties at No 10 whilst telling us we couldn't.
But he also got Brexit done. He got the vaccines right. He is quite keen on me going to the pub now, certainly keener than anyone else. My wages are rising quite fast. I have my choice of jobs right now. SKS is a boring, pompous prat.
So, on balance, its still Boris. Never did believe he told the truth anyway, that wasn't really the point.
Now they may be being wildly optimistic about all of this. Probably are. But it is not the no brainer Hodges seems to think it is. My guess, FWIW, is that May will not be the disaster some are predicting, not least because the Tories got hammered in the areas voting in 2019. I have not bet on this but if I had I would still be laying 2022 as an exit date.
Ummm...
It's the 2018 locals that get rerun this time, where the Conservatives did reasonably well.
Next year (2023) is when we replay the 2019 elections (when the Conservatives got mullered).
They did lost 1000+ councillors but that's because it was both the 'big round' of local elections and that the Conservatives were starting from the high point of 2015.
That Labour and the LibDems performed so weakly in May 2019 was an indicator of what a general election could be and indeed would be.
What might be different this May is the Conservatives really being mullered on the NEV.
David (Lord) Frost’s resignation as Johnson’s Brexit minister is a highly significant telltale of the way the wind is blowing among the Brexiteers and former members of the ERG (the so-called European Research Group) . Liz Truss has been wooing them assiduously and it’s rumoured that should she become prime minister Frost wants to serve as her foreign secretary. I suspect Jacob Rees-Mogg would develop an ambition to be her chancellor.
See Emily Sheffield’s comments in the Standard last night. The ERG is already teeming up with newly elected MPs worried about their seats and others. They have the numbers so why would they support something like Truss who, to many, backed Remain and has May v 2.0 stamped all over her? Why not put in your own person?
Despite his wealth and upper-class persona, Rees-Mogg does have something of a knack for understanding the cost of living issues for average people. He’s also a successful money person from his previous life, there could be a lot worse people out there as Chancellor candidates.
Rees Mogg would, as leader, be an IDS option. He’d doom the Tories to opposition. They’d be mad to go for him.
The suggestion is that he goes for the Chancellor position under Truss, rather than the leadership position. I agree he’d be the wrong choice as PM.
Due to data lag it looks like SA deaths may have peaked in week 52, not now (week 2). When I stopped tracking week 52 they had recorded 704 deaths for the week. Two weeks later and week 52 now stands a 996 deaths.
This does demonstrate the problem with trying to extrapolate things from SA data.
Donald Trump: MY NAME IS DONALD TRUMP, I PLAN TO STEAL THE NEXT ELECTION *Cut to 2024* American Pundits: It is absolutely astounding that Trump has stolen the election, no-one saw it coming. Completely blindsided us.
This has been going on for a while now. DeSsntis has particularly been gaining support amongst the anti-lockdown crowd. Personally, I still think he ends up as Trump’s running mate.
Only possible if one of them leaves the State of Florida, or at least registers to vote in another state.
Because US Constitution prohibits election of POTUS and VP from same state.
EDIT - Same applies re: Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL)
Personally think DeSantis is a busted flush. But time will tell.
Trump could readily register in New York, if he isn't already, I imagine?
Boris is undoubtedly unfit to be PM, but Tories agitating for him to go need to reflect on whether he is still the best leader they have.
Is there any reason to expect a successor to command as much deference in the party? Major did not have the respect of his peers or rivals.
Somehow I expect neither Sunak nor Truss will be able to command the party in the same way as Boris. It could be majoresque.
I would not be surprised if there were not leadership rumours before 2024. Boris should go, but the grass may not be greener.
What? WTAF?
That was then. This is now.
Never mind that the deference was never there, they went along with him because he was electable. You seriously think he commands anyone or anything any more?
Lynton Crosby is on the case now.
All restrictions lifted by the end of January. Junior and Senior Civil Servants publicly defesnestrated and Big Dog is saved.
I predict much use of "he needs better people around him".
Just laid an exit by 31 March at 3.7.
Senior Tories are now batting for a May-June exit. Almost everyone else wants him out now.
Thus the almost free money appears to be on Johnson going in 2022. The only way you lose is if senior Tories keep him on until May and somehow the Tory councillors dodge their already scripted role of going down to electoral slaughter.
BF rules state that if Johnson lost a confidence vote or jacked it but agreed to stay on until a successor is found the market settles at the end of this interim period. So no way he goes for the purposes of this market prior to 1 April, as replacement process will drag on longer than this, unless he literally ups sticks and walks.
A Lay of first quarter exit at around 4 with BF is a great bet.
Q1 end is as far in the future as the Paterson vote is in the past. If more than 25% as much shit happens in the future as has happened since then, he is gone
Brave call
Approx ten weeks away. 54 letters plus VONC plus pondering candidates if BJ loses, plus campaigning and whittling down. Then canvassing the membership then membership vote. Is this possible within ten weeks?
24th May 2019: announces that she will stand down as party leader on 7th June 7th June: resigns as party leader, contest starts. 10th June: nominations closed. 13th-20th June: MP ballots 6th July: postal votes sent to members 22nd July: deadline for ballots to be returned 23rd July: ballots counted and Johnson appointed party leader 24th July: May resigns as PM and Johnson kisses the Queen’s hand.
Exactly two months, 61 days, start to finish.
Who says it is going to get anywhere near the members, this time?
Comments
And as for "we" allowing him to remain....that is not in the gift of "we" until a GE. So it says nothing about "we" at all.
His wife is worth a packet btw
I suspect that certain schools and two universities will dominate.
I'm beginning to think that having been to either of those universities should now preclude people from any senior position.
The Prime Minister's chief policy is turning out to be a success. MPs should not force him to resign merely as an act of fury
CHARLES MOORE"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/14/faults-no-tory-politician-has-boris-johnsons-political-reach/
The Prime Minister's chief policy is turning out to be a success. MPs should not force him to resign merely as an act of fury
CHARLES MOORE"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/14/faults-no-tory-politician-has-boris-johnsons-political-reach/
Further evidence of his political nous.
It's the 2018 locals that get rerun this time, where the Conservatives did reasonably well.
Next year (2023) is when we replay the 2019 elections (when the Conservatives got mullered).
Edit: BF 4 - so 3/1 not 4/1 BTW
Because US Constitution prohibits election of POTUS and VP from same state.
EDIT - Same applies re: Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL)
Personally think DeSantis is a busted flush. But time will tell.
😂
After a party VONC, I suspect there would be an additional few days at least for the nomination phase, so 8 weeks is a realistic timeline, and there is always the possibility of Boris stepping down immediately as well.
Just as Churchill embodied WWII.
He literally is the pandemic.
When it is over, all the hurt and grief comes out.
Nobody wants to hear about it ever again. The evidence? Tory MP started burbling about vaccines on Any Questions. The reaction? Groans and visceral, gutteral shouts of outrage.
And the mere sight of the person acts as a traumatic flashback.
Best decision of the week was his going into hiding.
It is, after all, not our job.
Keep your enemies closer, and all that.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Conservative_Party_leadership_election
24th May 2019: announces that she will stand down as party leader on 7th June
7th June: resigns as party leader, contest starts.
10th June: nominations closed.
13th-20th June: MP ballots
6th July: postal votes sent to members
22nd July: deadline for ballots to be returned
23rd July: ballots counted and Johnson appointed party leader
24th July: May resigns as PM and Johnson kisses the Queen’s hand.
Exactly two months, 61 days, start to finish.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections
They did lost 1000+ councillors but that's because it was both the 'big round' of local elections and that the Conservatives were starting from the high point of 2015.
That Labour and the LibDems performed so weakly in May 2019 was an indicator of what a general election could be and indeed would be.
What might be different this May is the Conservatives really being mullered on the NEV.
Due to data lag it looks like SA deaths may have peaked in week 52, not now (week 2). When I stopped tracking week 52 they had recorded 704 deaths for the week. Two weeks later and week 52 now stands a 996 deaths.
This does demonstrate the problem with trying to extrapolate things from SA data.
*Cut to 2024*
American Pundits: It is absolutely astounding that Trump has stolen the election, no-one saw it coming. Completely blindsided us.
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1482355548565745670