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The worst political bet on the market today? – politicalbetting.com
The worst political bet on the market today? – politicalbetting.com
In betting, both sides have intrinsic advantages. Punters get to pick and choose their bets, waiting for the bookie to make an error. The bookie gets to write the terms of the bet, from odds to wording and so on. Importantly, they can offer bets on only half of a market – letting people bet on some outcomes but not others.
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Slightly more seriously, your article is interesting (as per usual) and informative (ditto). My own view has always been, that when the Koreas reunify, it will be sudden and surprising. Akin to the last major national reunification - Germany.
So putting a few bucks (or bob if you prefer) on One Korea by 2024 is like buying a lottery ticket at the gas station next time you fill 'er up. Less likely than getting crushed to death by a falling piano (or is it, you tell me!) But with a HUGE payoff IF it does happen.
> When James II took the thrown, JC was his longtime supporter AND protege, and he took a major role in suppressing Monmouth's (premature) Rebellion.
> When the "Protestant Wind" carried William of Orange (husband of James's daughter Mary) over from Holland to England, JC took the field with King James to face the invader
> But JC was increasingly disturbed, both by James's overt, intensifying Catholic agenda AND by the King's growing, expanding unpopularity in England, if not (most) of Ireland
> So when it was clear that the bulk of establishment & public opinion was behind William, JC chose his moment . . . and galloped over to William's camp.
Where JC > Duke of Marlborough remained with considerable personal & professional success - to put it most mildly. Until that is his wife Sarah pissed off W's successor & sister in law Queen Anne BIG time.
But THAT's a whole other soap opera / Masterpiece Theater special.
Choosing the right moment to abandon ship for safer haven, is a skill developed to at least some extent by all successful politicos under just about any political system. Esp. true for top-to-mid level British parliamentarians.
They exist out there. Nothing going to shake his faith, not that I tried.
And yes reader, he got a tip!
And the forecast here is dry, although the clouds seem to have rolled over.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgszepU0rAE
https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/commons-catering/transparency/catering-services-opening-times-and-access---jul-2021.pdf
I've never liked it particularly, but it doesn't bother me and I wouldn't want to stop it. The issue is doing it in a lockdown, when you made up the rules that you are imposing on the rest of the country. That is inexcusable.
Many large companies nowadays have ‘no alcohol on duty’ rules, which includes a drink out at lunchtime as well as in the office.
Suitcase Cocktail
1 Jack Daniels
1 Passion fruit
Instructions:
pour jack daniels and passion fruit into seperate shooters and chase the jack with the passion fruit
“The problem is that he has in no way accepted that himself,” says one senior Tory adviser with knowledge of the prime minister’s inner circle.
And so began a period of what one Conservative minister described as prime ministerial “purgatory” – the gap between a leader being politically done for and the moment of their stepping down.
One person present at cabinet on Tuesday said the mood in No 10 was “total denial” about the seriousness of the situation that Johnson faces. Describing a “bizarre” and “farcical” virtual meeting, they said not a single cabinet minister mentioned the political peril that Johnson is facing.
I was wrong to expect the PM to find some means of 'chickening out' of PMQ's on Wednesday, but I'm prepared to try another forecast; that in a storm of faux outrage several senior Downing St staff will be sacked.
Although they will quietly be promised, and found, comfortable jobs elsewhere. After politics has moved on.
Cricket fans should be more concerned by the culture of racism in the sport than how much a team lose a match.
PB posts recently about Ashes must number thousands
PB posts about racism in the sport… er…
Boris Johnson is jealous. If only his PB team were that effective.
The consequences if an au pair fecks up big time can be horrific and life-changing. Both employer and employee need to approach the contract in a somber and serious manner. Quality costs. £10k sounds ridiculously low. Must be for 20 hours pw.
Cf Boris Johnson: thousands of Conservatives did try to warn the party about the man’s character flaws. What happened? The party forced out the messengers and appointed the man sacked from several high profile jobs for mendacity.
What is Scottish cricket doing to investigate institutional racism in the game?
ETA maybe he spilled wine on the old sofa and then needed to replace it.
At least the Paddy Power ploy was planned. Unlike that other “unusual” behaviour currently gathering attention, eg the “Minister for the Union” (sic) and the “Earl of Inverness” (sic).
I like the (somewhat true) story that the French had some incredible intelligence on the plans of the Allied armies. Except for JCs plans, strangely. The intelligence was always wrong about those.... Or not so strangely - since JC was (so they claim) selling the other generals plans. This gave JC another income stream, allowed him to manipulate the French plans and be the most successful general.... You are aware that this articles are designed, by experts, to boil your piss?
Much as the Daily Heil articles on immigrants are designed to boil the piss of another group?
Which in turn allows other papers to write articles about the Dail Heils articles about immigrants to boil the piss of another group....
Anger keeps the newspapers rolling.....
It happens everywhere - seen it in France, Germany, Ireland, US, Canada....
In fact, the number of times that shooting the messenger isn't the offhand response of the Big Boss... hmm I'm trying to think.
I've tried introducing Just Culture in a few places. The reactions are interesting... "But if we don't have someone to lynch, how can we prove we are dealing with the issue?"
SNP 53%
SCon 21%
SLD 10%
SLab 10%
Grn 3%
Ref 1%
oth 1%
(YouGov are the only pollster to routinely correctly weight geographical sub-samples; Fieldwork: 12th - 13th January 2022; Weighted sample = 145)
I’m sure HY will be along in a minute to hail this as a victory for the Union, again.
The 10K will be a combination of the pocket money they get per week and things like the cost of paying for the au pair to come on the family holidays....
Mr. Malmesbury, reminds me of the foolish conduct of Tigranes the Great.
Would be rather different for Holyrood of course - a lot more Green, though whether that comes from SNP, Labour, SLD and/or all of them is a good question.
But subsamples.
The SOP in the Civil Service is of course, find the most junior person involved and scapegoat them.
All the bigger outfits seem to have "Open containers in the office = sacking" rules in the contracts, these days
To be accurate, they tend to scapegoat the most senior person *outside the magic circle* of Top People.
I doubt it’s out and out racism more xenophobic.
The others are walking a tightrope - no fingerprints on the knife, but nothing to suggest afterwards that they condoned the behaviour that will surely bring the clown down.
“Boss, lockdown party. Drop in, say few words?”
TB: Bad, bad idea. Talk to JP/PM/AC. No.
GB: If I see hint of party I will kill you. Work on global vaccination. Get @POTUS on phone, now.
DC: WTF? Talk to Ed: you’ll be happy in Mongolia.
https://twitter.com/TFletcher/status/1482089635010465792
Of course, given that we don't actually know either of these people, we have no idea how much of this is based on deep-rooted biases and how much is just done to provoke a response. A work colleague of mine once admitted that he sometimes went on social media, when bored, drunk or both, to join conversations full of very earnest far left types and troll them. It was done for (low quality) entertainment and to provoke a response.
I don't know if either the England bashing or the Tory shilling is done out of conviction or to get people to bite, but it tells us nothing useful regardless.
As for worst political bet ever?
Publicity Shy Paddy Power once had a betting market on whether a porn video featuring Donald Trump would be released in his first term (offering only one side of the bet.)
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/09/14/porn-in-the-u-s-a/
People don’t get fired for honest mistakes in high-performing industries such as F1 teams, airlines and nuclear power plants, which is why we see reducing numbers of accidents in these industries over time.
I am out today so have done horses based on a quick 5 minute look, good luck to you
Trixie
Earth Company 15:50 Kempton
Our Jet 12:27 Wetherby
Fransham 14:12 Wetherby
Single EW
Gelino Bello 2:40 Kempton
One of the questions I still haven't resolved in my own mind is, when an NHS Trust, or similar is 'fined', who pays? It's clearly not the people at the top who, generally speaking move on somewhere else.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1482272829718552582
Like Watergate, Partygate reveals the character traits that have long defined Johnson, but that, until the scandal, were seen as either irrelevant or even positive when dealing with Brexit. Now, applied to the pandemic, they are seen as disqualifying.
The great irony of Johnson is that he seems to understand his own weaknesses better than most politicians do, yet he remains unable to do anything about them, drawn like some giant blond moth to the flame of his own political undoing...it’s clear that Johnson was always aware that his lifelong quest to become prime minister would leave him and all his character flaws exposed for the world to see.
If humans are creatures of the imagination, as Johnson says [in a past interview], they do not let their leader off on some technicality when the basic truth is that he didn’t think the rules everybody else was following applied to him. Whether he likes it or not, Johnson is now the evil king in the great Partygate scandal. That story has been written. As such, he is now close to his end, for the sake of a national rebirth from this sordid tale of contempt.
Johnson can only hope that he survives long enough to eventually distract voters with a different story altogether. That won’t be easy.
🚫 Boris Johnson isn't getting away with it this time - @adamboultonTABB:
https://reaction.life/boris-johnson-isnt-getting-away-with-it-this-time/
Why are we ever discussing anything without simultaneously talking about ingrained social or racial issues surrounding that thing?
https://www.gov.uk/au-pairs-employment-law/au-pairs
Did that walk a few months back myself. And very nice indeed it was.
https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics