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So what should CON MPs and members do now? – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Leon said:

    Yes, good point

    Time will show that the Colston verdict was deeply pernicious and irresponsible
    The more it happens the less I suspect juries will be willing to let it slide.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    pigeon said:

    Except, do we see any significant likelihood of a Scottish Prime Minister again as things currently stand? The wonky structure of devolution already mitigates against it, and nobody is interested in fixing it with full federalism because (a) of the problem of the size of England and (b) the English electorate isn't interested in making the change.

    A political arrangement in which sister parties run separately in different states or provinces within one country, with their own manifestos and accommodating differences in policy and outlook, is not unprecedented. It could work.

    Insofar as I can see from down here, the SNP has two trump cards to play with the electorate: independence, and standing up for Scotland. The Scottish Conservatives can make a much more plausible pitch on the latter point if they repudiate the English party and strike out on their own.

    Scottish Unionists would clearly rather that devolution had never happened, but they are where they are. They would, one assumes, infinitely prefer Home Rule to the end of Britain, and such a half-in, half-out arrangement could retail well with the kind of middle-class voters who don't particularly love the Union or rule from London, but can recognise some benefits to the arrangement and are afraid that outright separation would make Brexit look like a cake walk and leave them significantly poorer.

    It would also be harder for the Nationalists to argue that outright independence is essential if the Scottish Parliament were to end up with control of most of its own tax revenues as well as domestic policy, and a rupture therefore entailed abandoning a common defence, a common currency (and contingent system of transfer payments,) a seamless and borderless free trade area, but not very much else.

    Some distance from their political brethren down South would give the Unionists the time and the space to move towards such a position.
    Ever heard of the Declaration of Perth?

    Scottish Tories are always swinging their willies in the wind, but whenever push comes to shove they always go for the meekest, most cringeworthy, cowardly position.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    Have we discussed this apology. I'm glad they resigned, good riddance imo.

    ..wanted to express "how sorry I am for my breach of rules that I ask all of us to follow".

    they said: "I want to be clear that regardless of the circumstances, I was in the wrong. There are no excuses.

    "These rules do apply to me, just as they do to everyone else, and the rules really matter.

    "I am kicking myself very hard - possibly harder than my worst critic ever could - but more importantly I'll be making sure I don't drop my guard again."
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    I hope that he stays because I am now convinced he's an electoral liability and tories have a particular knack for thinking past success is an indication of future performance.

    However, my guess is that they will remove him. If he was competent I'd think differently but he isn't. He's inept as PM so they will oust him this year.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    Asymmetric devolution didn't stop SLAB MPs becoming PM or getting positions in the Cabinet - even ones whose responsibilities had been devolved to the Scottish Parliament (i.e. John Reid as Health Secretary).
    Things have changed quite a lot since the early 2000s.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    Churchill's Tory government never did, only Attlee's Labour government did
    You’d never guess you’re a Franco fan.
  • Cookie said:

    Really? I'd have thought the Guardian would be cheering him on.
    I though it is rather telling the immediate reaction of the BBC journalist is well yes everybody know he did terrible things, but is this the way. I very much doubt the general reaction to Colston statue being ripped down was such a nuanced stance.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292
    edited January 2022

    What's damaged the Tory party is the absence of anyone in Number Ten with the sense and influence over Johnson to have prevented him from trashing his Premiership with the Paterson fiasco.

    There are no Johnson loyalists who will fight a civil war in the party on his behalf if he is pushed out, and I don't see what significant change of policy would follow from a change of PM at this stage. No new PM is going to make a drastic change of policy on Brexit - this is very different from 1990 when it was felt that Thatcher was brought down by the pro-Europeans.
    If it leads to a more pro restrictions approach from a new PM, perfectly possible under Gove or Hunt or Javid or even Sunak, then that certainly would see a civil war
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914

    I am certainly not arguing this, but I did say the other week, slippery slope of such decisions, where people will argue about the individuals and the politics, not the criminal act of vandalising a statue.

    The likes of the Guardian fully on the side of ripping down Colston statue will be firmly against this guy smashing up this statue.
    I suppose you could argue there is a moral difference between a statue erected to commemorate an evil man, and a statue of something else, carved by an evil man (or a painting painted, or a song sung, etc)

    Yet we don't apply this differentiation when it comes to Gary Glitter. You won't now hear his songs on British radios. Yet you will still hear Michael Jackson. And Wagner

    We are in a total confused mess on this issue. My stance is nothing should be criminally damaged, and any artwork must in itself be offensive (outwith the moral profile of the artist) for it to be banned

    Gary Glitter wrote a couple of quite excellent pop anthems
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Leon said:

    Yes, good point

    Time will show that the Colston verdict was deeply pernicious and irresponsible
    No it was excellent.

    We have a right to decide whom we venerate in our own towns. A slave trader isn't one of them.

    The only people I know who are upset over this are middle-aged white men. And Alison Pearson, obvs.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    HYUFD said:

    Churchill's Tory government never did, only Attlee's Labour government did
    Come on, answer my question, were Labour right to give India independence, please? I'm trying to work out youir limits, seeing as you support independence for Wales and Antrim (the former in the UK, the latter still sort of).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292

    Churchill did not lead a Conservative government till after Indian independence.
    It was as Conservative a government as Cameron's from 2010-15, in fact even more so as the Tories had a majority of Commons seats
  • WOW.

    Prince Andrew wouldn't be that stupid surely?

    The judge has now rejected that argument, forcing Andrew to either fight the case or seek a settlement with his accuser. Some observers have also speculated that he will stop engaging with the case now that a judge has signalled that it will go ahead, leaving him open to a default judgment.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-loses-bid-to-dismiss-virginia-giuffre-sex-assault-case-9xfs2vdhl
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TOPPING said:

    Have we discussed this apology. I'm glad they resigned, good riddance imo.

    ..wanted to express "how sorry I am for my breach of rules that I ask all of us to follow".

    they said: "I want to be clear that regardless of the circumstances, I was in the wrong. There are no excuses.

    "These rules do apply to me, just as they do to everyone else, and the rules really matter.

    "I am kicking myself very hard - possibly harder than my worst critic ever could - but more importantly I'll be making sure I don't drop my guard again."

    Took her mask off at a wake

    Burn her
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,961
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    I suppose you could argue there is a moral difference between a statue erected to commemorate an evil man, and a statue of something else, carved by an evil man (or a painting painted, or a song sung, etc)

    Yet we don't apply this differentiation when it comes to Gary Glitter. You won't now hear his songs on British radios. Yet you will still hear Michael Jackson. And Wagner

    We are in a total confused mess on this issue. My stance is nothing should be criminally damaged, and any artwork must in itself be offensive (outwith the moral profile of the artist) for it to be banned

    Gary Glitter wrote a couple of quite excellent pop anthems
    If the mob hadn't ripped down Colston, rather protested against it, I am 99.9% certain the council would have taken action anyway and everybody could have claimed the moral high ground.

    As you say though, the people who decide what can be shown are totally inconsistent when it comes to what they believe should result in being cancelled or not. The list is as long as your arm, where a blind eye is turned to their crimes and others straight on the naughty list.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,838

    Farrar changed his mind from 70/30 to 50/50 so over time thought it less likely. If you ask him today he might give a different percentage again. In five years time yet another percentage. I doubt even he will get to 100/0 so yes for the likes of you and I it is unknowable. Perhaps a few people in the CCP or the Wuhan lab do really know.
    Even if it was entirely zoonotic in origin, we will probably never know, because you can't prove it didn't escape from the Wuhan lab.

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119

    "Outside BBC right now a man is trying to smash up Eric Gill statue while another man live streams talking about paedophiles. Gill’s horrific crimes are well known. But is this the way?"
    https://twitter.com/katierazz/status/1481307310534402049?s=20

    Suspect that a jury will show this guy that the previous jury didn't create a precedent, and he is going to spend time in jail.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    Ever heard of the Declaration of Perth?

    Scottish Tories are always swinging their willies in the wind, but whenever push comes to shove they always go for the meekest, most cringeworthy, cowardly position.
    BTW did you see my comment earlier on the apparent junking of the No Surrender to Indy in Auchenshuggle Cooncil leaflet strategy?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    IshmaelZ said:

    Took her mask off at a wake

    Burn her
    Principle, innit. She set the rules and broke them.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838
    HYUFD said:

    No, it would be as damaging longer term to the party as removing Thatcher was in 1990 and set in motion a civil war which would in effect last for almost 2 decades. Most of which we would again spend in opposition
    Hear hear!

    Stand fast, you gallant, stalwart Tories.

    And keep Boris as your brave standard-bearer into the next general election (and maybe even beyond it, if loonies like you are representative)!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    Heathener said:

    No it was excellent.

    We have a right to decide whom we venerate in our own towns. A slave trader isn't one of them.

    The only people I know who are upset over this are middle-aged white men. And Alison Pearson, obvs.
    Polls show that you are absolutely wrong. Most people are open to controversial statues being taken down by democratic consent, they do NOT like it done in an hour by a mob

    Just 13% in this poll approved of the mob

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/philosophy/survey-results/daily/2020/06/08/1ab21/1
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    Boris hasn't bought himself much time with this 'wait for Sue Gray's report' line, has he? As always with him, he's bought a short-term respite at the cost of more trouble thereafter. This is because the report will now act as a specific trigger for action.

    Boris's viewpoint seems to always be what can I use to get out of this mess. The problem is that he is rapidly running out of road as his previous statements catch up with him leaving him fewer and fewer options that don't contradict what he's already said.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292
    Carnyx said:

    Come on, answer my question, were Labour right to give India independence, please? I'm trying to work out youir limits, seeing as you support independence for Wales and Antrim (the former in the UK, the latter still sort of).
    No I don't, I voted for more Tory candidates than Plaid even in that town council election and I want to keep NI in the UK, just Antrim may prefer UDI to joining Ireland.

    Churchill did oppose Indian independence at the time, so had I been a Tory MP from say 1935 to 1945 then I probably would have opposed Indian independence at the time. However India did go independent and we have to accept it is now an independent nation, albeit still within the Commonwealth.

    However India is a different case from Scotland as it was a colony without MPs, Scotland is part of the UK with MPs and its own parliament.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,692
    Scott_xP said:

    Calling for PM to go on BBC, William Wragg makes an interesting point about the significance being piled onto Gray's report:

    "I don't believe it should be left to the findings of a civil servant to determine the future of the prime minister and indeed who governs this country."

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1481314932239089665

    Exactly this. Tory MPs need to "man up" and do the right thing

    1922 Committee starting to move? He's pretty senior on the 1922 isn't he?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    Scottish MSPs are in Holyrood, not even Westminster.

    Though yes I think a VONC may now occur, albeit I still think Boris could win it about 55% to 45%
    As we know, that margin of victory kills rebellions stone dead. Titter.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,089
    GIN1138 said:

    1922 Committee starting to move? He's pretty senior on the 1922 isn't he?

    Vice-chair
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    Ever heard of the Declaration of Perth?

    Scottish Tories are always swinging their willies in the wind, but whenever push comes to shove they always go for the meekest, most cringeworthy, cowardly position.
    Not until you mentioned it, though one's bound to point out that 1968 was rather a long time ago, and things have changed a bit since.

    Perhaps the Scottish Tories will surprise you this time? Though most likely they'll do nothing and you'll be proven right. Anyway, I'm just showing a casual interest and floating some ideas. I don't have a dog in this particular fight.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,212

    Face palm.
    Given that you're not even part of the Scottish electorate, your response isn't looked for, thanks anyway.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    IshmaelZ said:

    Took her mask off at a wake

    Burn her
    As I understand it, she was talking to an elderly person who couldn't hear her properly - indeed quite likely to be a partial lipreader. (This is also probably at the root of that incident with Jack Straw and the lady with the veil years ago).
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    WOW.

    Prince Andrew wouldn't be that stupid surely?

    The judge has now rejected that argument, forcing Andrew to either fight the case or seek a settlement with his accuser. Some observers have also speculated that he will stop engaging with the case now that a judge has signalled that it will go ahead, leaving him open to a default judgment.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-loses-bid-to-dismiss-virginia-giuffre-sex-assault-case-9xfs2vdhl

    Depends how big a bill Virginia is presenting him with to settle before court.

    If she is desperate for a day in court than a default judgment may be the best Prince Andrew can hope for.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,292
    HYUFD said:

    No, it would be as damaging longer term to the party as removing Thatcher was in 1990 and set in motion a civil war which would in effect last for almost 2 decades. Most of which we would again spend in opposition
    Oh dear. How sad. Never mind,
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    kle4 said:

    The more it happens the less I suspect juries will be willing to let it slide.
    Again, the jury were offered a binary choice: give these young people – who in every other respect had made and will likely continue to make a good contribution to society – a criminal record and possible custodial term or acquit them.

    On balance, ten of twelve jurors decided the latter was the lesser of two wrongs. If we continue to propose punishments that are disproportionate to the crime, we shouldn't be surprised if juries opt to nullify.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    Word on the provincial taxi driver's, er, street car, in no particular order:

    1) what were the rules then in any case
    2) at least he got us through Brexit
    3) didn't Nicola Sturgeon break the rules also (this from her husband so they had discussed)
    4) what about the other people at the party - they also knew it was against the rules if it was and all attended nevertheless.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,760

    The Prince Andrew ruling is a victory for women

    The effect is a ‘win’ for Virginia Roberts Giuffre – she can continue her quest for justice in open court

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/prince-andrew-ruling-virginia-roberts-giuffre-b1991666.html

    As I have repeatedly said I am not an American lawyer but the decision of the Judge is bewildering. He said:

    "In a similar vein and for similar reasons, it is not open to the court now to decide, as a matter of fact, just what the parties to the release in the 2009 settlement agreement signed by Ms Giuffre and Jeffrey Epstein actually meant."

    The question of whether the agreement is binding on the claimant is not a matter of the parties' subjective intentions or wishes. It is a matter of the legal interpretation of a legal document. In the UK evidence as to intention is simply not admissible. It is possible in some circumstances to have evidence about the background circumstances of the agreement but in general this is only permissible if there is an inherent ambiguity in it.

    I would be very surprised if American law was different to this. The Judge should either have determined that the agreement was irrelevant on the basis that Andrew was not a party to it or determined that the natural construction is that he was a potential defendant and therefore had the benefit of it. He has dodged the issue.

    The BBC are reporting that a right of appeal on this point requires the leave of the Judge and that he is unlikely to grant that. I think we shall see. Most courts would want a determination on such a preliminary issue before the parties went to the cost and inconvenience of proof.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    HYUFD said:

    No I don't, I voted for more Tory candidates than Plaid even in that town council election and I want to keep NI in the UK, just Antrim may prefer UDI to joining Ireland.

    Churchill did oppose Indian independence at the time, so had I been a Tory MP from say 1935 to 1945 then I probably would have opposed Indian independence at the time. However India did go independent and we have to accept it is now an independent nation, albeit still within the Commonwealth.

    However India is a different case from Scotland as it was a colony without MPs, Scotland is part of the UK with MPs and its own parliament.
    You're still not answeing my question, but blaming everyone and everything else.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,961
    edited January 2022

    Suspect that a jury will show this guy that the previous jury didn't create a precedent, and he is going to spend time in jail.
    Well we have seen this before. Pissy man went to jail for handing himself in and apologising for being a total dickhead of having a pee next to a memorial, man who set like to Union Flag at the Cenotaph, not jailed.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    As I say a big part of the reason it is unknowable is that we can't trust analysis of it. Saying that scientists were not honest about it is hardly going to make me change my mind that we will never know.
    You seem to have very little faith in your own inquisitive and analytic powers, rightly or not I couldn't say. I know all sorts of shit on the basis of an assessment of the evidence and the probabilities, you obviously not. The world must be mysterious and confusing to you. Sympathies.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Boris hasn't bought himself much time with this 'wait for Sue Gray's report' line, has he? As always with him, he's bought a short-term respite at the cost of more trouble thereafter. This is because the report will now act as a specific trigger for action.

    Do we know when Gray is due to report?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    Carnyx said:

    As I understand it, she was talking to an elderly person who couldn't hear her properly - indeed quite likely to be a partial lipreader. (This is also probably at the root of that incident with Jack Straw and the lady with the veil years ago).
    Of course there is a valid excuse. And I'm sure Scottish plod would have listened to each and everyone's valid excuse also if they were pulled up on it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Do we know when Gray is due to report?
    Laura K guessing week to 10 days on WATO
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838
    HYUFD said:

    However India did go independent and we have to accept it is now an independent nation ...

    Come on, admit you are a (beyond) parody account!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    I think HYUFD cares more about independence not happening under the Tories watch, rather than actually trying to keep the union together.
    Indeed.
    He’s said as much.

    One wonders why FUDHY is a member of a political party at all. He seems to lack a purpose. A compass. It’s all just a game for him.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099
    Anyone got a view on how long we will have to wait for Sue Gray's report?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,089
    brilliant point by @EvanHD that the PM has with a straight face used the defence that Allegra Stratton realised she could not deliver from the Downing Street podium - that a party was a business meeting...
    https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1481319825834229762
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,378
    edited January 2022
    pigeon said:

    Things have changed quite a lot since the early 2000s.
    Maybe for the Conservative Party. But I'd hope Labour being an actual, real unionist party would ignore any frothing at the mouth by the Faragistas and actually offer ministerial positions to any competent newly elected SLAB MPs.
  • Boris hasn't bought himself much time with this 'wait for Sue Gray's report' line, has he? As always with him, he's bought a short-term respite at the cost of more trouble thereafter. This is because the report will now act as a specific trigger for action.

    I have come to that conclusion as well

    I very much doubt Boris will see the month out
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,089
    Ominous from Lancashire's first Tory MP to respond to our enquiries today https://twitter.com/LiveLancs/status/1481289692742094857
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556

    I have come to that conclusion as well

    I very much doubt Boris will see the month out
    Shall we have a bet on that Big G.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cookie said:

    The thing which most disturbed me was the Great Barrington Declaration. Not the thing itself, but Google and Facebook's response to it. If you Googled Great Barrington Declaration, you just got a site saying why it was wrong. What used to be considered neutral players in information were doing their best to suppress things they found inconvenient.
    It's understandable when the CCP are doing it. We know they're an autocracy. But when Google and Facebook are doing it it's almost more sinister. It's considerably more puzzling.
    Reading it again, the Lancet letter is a straw man.

    [condemn the view] “ Covid does not have a natural origin”

    “this coronavirus originated in nature”

    Of course it did. It’s not a synthetic virus. But that doesn’t exclude modification of a naturally originating virus in a lab
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    When even Grant Shapps shows reluctance to defend the indefensible then you know that the writing is on the wall.
    Michael Green takes the moral high ground.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    IshmaelZ said:

    Laura K guessing week to 10 days on WATO
    Not long enough to be in power longer than Theresa or Gordon. Tory MPs need to feel the public mood and get those letters in now.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    BTW did you see my comment earlier on the apparent junking of the No Surrender to Indy in Auchenshuggle Cooncil leaflet strategy?
    Yes I did. Thank you.

    I agree with you that this is a sign of the rusty cogs slowly grinding into action among the SCon strategy bods. They’re in trouble and they know it. Their internal polling must be dire.

    But it does beg the question: if they abandon Ruthie’s No Surrender strategy, what on earth is going to replace it? No dog poo on pavements? No to potholes? Haggis and kilts all round? The mind boggles.
  • Encouraged by the judgement the other week, I presume this guy will now argue that because Eric Gill did some really sick shit it must be removed and the corporation won't do so, so he is going to.

    https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2017/apr/09/eric-gill-the-body-ditchling-exhibition-rachel-cooke
    That is a really good and interesting article. Thanks for that. The Guardian long articles really are great reading.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Scott_xP said:

    Ominous from Lancashire's first Tory MP to respond to our enquiries today https://twitter.com/LiveLancs/status/1481289692742094857

    First tory mp for burnley since 1910

    Bye.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,857
    Just saw some wag on Linkedin mocked up a Boris avatar with the little #OpenToWork green swoosh on it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    TOPPING said:

    Of course there is a valid excuse. And I'm sure Scottish plod would have listened to each and everyone's valid excuse also if they were pulled up on it.
    Not an excuse; an entire justification, if you recall, when communication with a deaf person is/was involved.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    DavidL said:

    As I have repeatedly said I am not an American lawyer but the decision of the Judge is bewildering. He said:

    "In a similar vein and for similar reasons, it is not open to the court now to decide, as a matter of fact, just what the parties to the release in the 2009 settlement agreement signed by Ms Giuffre and Jeffrey Epstein actually meant."

    Don't see that in the judgment - It's here and fully searchable https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/21177493/21cv6702-jan-11-2022-0900.pdf
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,089
    Taking the temperature of Tories:
    - Cabinet circling wagons but Rishi Sunak still not said anything supportive
    - Lots of MPs saying they aren’t happy with the qualified apology
    - At least 1 MP tells me they’ve written to Sit Graham Brady today

    - https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1481321307262402560
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Carnyx said:

    Remember that pretty much those arguments were put to them in 2011 and were smashed down and Murdo Fraser's career never recovered. It's not what is good for Scotland or the UK that counts here but what is good for the Scottish Unionists, and that is a huge psychological barrier. It would be a hell of a psychological shift from being a MP in the monolithic Labour-destroying Tory Party to the equivalent of the DUP.
    OTOH it might eventually dawn on them that Labour isn't their main opposition anymore, and that there has now been a very, very long run of general elections in which they've failed dismally at getting elected as part of the Tory monolith at Westminster. Even the most bone-headed organisations occasionally manage to absorb the lessons of the past. Eventually.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    Anyone got a view on how long we will have to wait for Sue Gray's report?

    However long Sue Gray decides.
  • I have come to that conclusion as well

    I very much doubt Boris will see the month out
    Maybe especially not if Cummings has some more gourmet deliveries lined up before then.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    Charles said:

    Reading it again, the Lancet letter is a straw man.

    [condemn the view] “ Covid does not have a natural origin”

    “this coronavirus originated in nature”

    Of course it did. It’s not a synthetic virus. But that doesn’t exclude modification of a naturally originating virus in a lab
    Oh good god. You seriously think they weren't trying to crush the lab leak hypothesis? By spinning the word "nature". Everybody read "natural origin" = "Not Lab Leak"

    Everyone

    "Two months earlier, on Feb. 1, 2020, Comer and Jordan claim, Fauci and Collins took part in a conference call with at least 11 other scientists in which they were warned that COVID-19 may have leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, but “it is unclear if either Dr. Fauci or Dr. Collins ever passed these warnings along to other government officials or if they simply ignored them.”

    "One participant in the call, Tulane University virologist Robert F. Garry, wrote in a follow-up email that “I really can’t think of a plausible natural scenario” for the emergence of the virus.

    "However, Garry later signed his name to a paper called “The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2,” a draft of which was sent to Collins and Fauci before it was to be published in Nature Medicine. This was the paper to which Collins referred in his April 16 email to Fauci and it stated: “Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus""

    “After speaking with Drs. Fauci and Collins, the authors abandoned their belief COVID-19 was the result of a laboratory leak. It is also unclear if Drs. Fauci or Collins edited the paper prior to publication,” the Republicans’ letter says."

    https://nypost.com/2022/01/11/fauci-called-wuhan-lab-leak-theory-shiny-object-in-april-2020-email/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292

    Indeed.
    He’s said as much.

    One wonders why FUDHY is a member of a political party at all. He seems to lack a purpose. A compass. It’s all just a game for him.
    More the point even if there is an indyref2 it is more likely to be won under a Labour PM offering devomax than any Tory PM
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,760
    edited January 2022
    eek said:

    Don't see that in the judgment - It's here and fully searchable https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/21177493/21cv6702-jan-11-2022-0900.pdf
    Its quoted on the BBC.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59871514
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    IshmaelZ said:

    First tory mp for burnley since 1910

    Bye.
    This is the group that will do BJ in - they are not the deferential, Home Counties MPs of Tory-shire but used to taking the view that there is no point putting a problem off.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    DavidL said:

    Its quoted on the BBC.
    Misquoted by the BBC - go and read the judgment - you can see why things were rejected...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,304
    HYUFD said:

    No, it would be as damaging longer term to the party as removing Thatcher was in 1990 and set in motion a civil war which would in effect last for almost 2 decades. Most of which we would again spend in opposition
    Would that be so bad? I could certainly live with 2 decades of the Conservatives in opposition. Point is, you'd have a clean conscience. You can't put a price on that.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,857
    I sort of want Boris to stay now just so we get to see how the split with the SCons plays out.

    Only sort of though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292
    edited January 2022

    Hang on, the man that you are defending from "treachery" was the main architect of his predecessor's demise. He is the most disloyal individual probably ever to have held the office of PM in this country. He is not even loyal to his new wife (the buyers remorse comment). He doesn't deserve yours or anyone else's loyalty. I hope Theresa is thinking of ways she can get her justified revenge.
    Boris never personally challenged May, he only stood after she had resigned after the Tories were polling below 25% and had lost over 1,000 councillors and got just 9% in the European elections of 2019.

    Boris' differences with Theresa were also on policy ie over getting Brexit done and the nature of her deal, not personal vendetta like the attempted Cummings coup is. Same with Heseltine, his disagreements with Thatcher were over the poll tax and Europe, not personal as such.

    The only possible policy disagreement could be if Cummings and Sunak and Gove want tighter restrictions than Boris is imposing, which really would be a recipe for Tory civil war
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Leon said:

    Polls show that you are absolutely wrong. Most people are open to controversial statues being taken down by democratic consent, they do NOT like it done in an hour by a mob

    Just 13% in this poll approved of the mob

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/philosophy/survey-results/daily/2020/06/08/1ab21/1
    "We have a right to decide whom we venerate in our own towns" is a very silly comment because the thing about mobs is they are not exactly a perfect method of determining who the town wants to venerate or not. Perhaps no way is perfect, but being frustrated by slow bureaucracy in removing something when there is support for removing it does not mean you should just start smashing something up mob justice style. Mobs are dumb.

    I disagreed with the jury verdict but support their right to make that verdict, but 'having a right' about veneration has little to do with having a simultaneous right to smashing things down - not all participants will find so sympathetic a jury. Now people are more alive to these issues local politicians can and will push for action if there is support, and in Bristol as well as other places there is probably support and votes in such action.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Scott_xP said:

    Taking the temperature of Tories:
    - Cabinet circling wagons but Rishi Sunak still not said anything supportive
    - Lots of MPs saying they aren’t happy with the qualified apology
    - At least 1 MP tells me they’ve written to Sit Graham Brady today

    - https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1481321307262402560

    Rishi running the risk of looking like a back-stabber. I suspect @HYUFD's view of his "treachery" (if true) will be shared by other members

    (personally, I always found Rishi a bit too smarmy)
  • HYUFD said:

    No I don't, I voted for more Tory candidates than Plaid even in that town council election and I want to keep NI in the UK, just Antrim may prefer UDI to joining Ireland.

    Churchill did oppose Indian independence at the time, so had I been a Tory MP from say 1935 to 1945 then I probably would have opposed Indian independence at the time. However India did go independent and we have to accept it is now an independent nation, albeit still within the Commonwealth.

    However India is a different case from Scotland as it was a colony without MPs, Scotland is part of the UK with MPs and its own parliament.
    We had just fought a war ostensibly against tyranny. We spilt much blood to make sure Europe, and large parts of the rest of the world, were free and could enjoy democracy. Why is it so hard for you to say that granting those same freedoms to India was a good thing?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    Yes I did. Thank you.

    I agree with you that this is a sign of the rusty cogs slowly grinding into action among the SCon strategy bods. They’re in trouble and they know it. Their internal polling must be dire.

    But it does beg the question: if they abandon Ruthie’s No Surrender strategy, what on earth is going to replace it? No dog poo on pavements? No to potholes? Haggis and kilts all round? The mind boggles.
    "That chap in No 10 is just who we want ruling Scotland never mind how few there are of us, and never mind I don't want to be seen on the same side of the street as him."

    The other thing that boggles the mind is the idea of calling themselves the Unionist Party. Brings back memories of the good old days of the nativist Protestant Supremacy and that chap preaching at the foot of the Mound in Edinburgh.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,089
    I guess in the end most of the cabinet will be forced into backing Johnson on social media, but it is striking how long it is taking some who are not normally reticent about tweeting to get round to it.
    https://twitter.com/robertshrimsley/status/1481322893904683024
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    DavidL said:

    As I have repeatedly said I am not an American lawyer but the decision of the Judge is bewildering. He said:

    "In a similar vein and for similar reasons, it is not open to the court now to decide, as a matter of fact, just what the parties to the release in the 2009 settlement agreement signed by Ms Giuffre and Jeffrey Epstein actually meant."

    The question of whether the agreement is binding on the claimant is not a matter of the parties' subjective intentions or wishes. It is a matter of the legal interpretation of a legal document. In the UK evidence as to intention is simply not admissible. It is possible in some circumstances to have evidence about the background circumstances of the agreement but in general this is only permissible if there is an inherent ambiguity in it.

    I would be very surprised if American law was different to this. The Judge should either have determined that the agreement was irrelevant on the basis that Andrew was not a party to it or determined that the natural construction is that he was a potential defendant and therefore had the benefit of it. He has dodged the issue.

    The BBC are reporting that a right of appeal on this point requires the leave of the Judge and that he is unlikely to grant that. I think we shall see. Most courts would want a determination on such a preliminary issue before the parties went to the cost and inconvenience of proof.
    Of course it's a dodge. Do Scottish courts never indulge in such things?

    Possible background: Andrew's lawyers said something about the intention of the parties (over and above what can be deduced from the Agreement itself): Judge says Aha, you want parol evidence, a full trial is the place for that. Not the most farfetched possibility in the world that judge is mildly prejudiced against A in the first place. I am.Judge
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099
    So, what sort of dead cat do we think Johnson's team are likely digging up ready to chuck on the table?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585

    Does anyone remember the Covid Wardens – local busybodies the government tried to hire to shop neighbours who broke the rules?

    Could have done with one in Number 11.

    Which diminutive Covid Warden do you think took all the photos?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    Carnyx said:

    Not an excuse; an entire justification, if you recall, when communication with a deaf person is/was involved.
    Yeah. An excuse as I said. But an SNP excuse so all good.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,692
    edited January 2022
    MrEd said:

    Rishi running the risk of looking like a back-stabber. I suspect @HYUFD's view of his "treachery" (if true) will be shared by other members

    (personally, I always found Rishi a bit too smarmy)
    Backstabber maybe? Or perhaps he has principles and doesn't want to defend in the indefensible?

    Even Michael Green MP doesn't think Boris's behaviour can be defended? It's that bad! ;)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MrEd said:

    Rishi running the risk of looking like a back-stabber. I suspect @HYUFD's view of his "treachery" (if true) will be shared by other members

    (personally, I always found Rishi a bit too smarmy)
    The more I look at Truss the more I warm to him
  • TOPPING said:

    Shall we have a bet on that Big G.
    I do not want to be a spoilsport but I am not a betting person

    However, I do generally have a good instinct and I think it is very possible
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    Maybe for the Conservative Party. But I'd hope Labour being an actual, real unionist party would ignore any frothing at the mouth by the Faragistas and actually offer ministerial positions to any competent newly elected SLAB MPs.
    That wouldn't be a problem for them, I'm sure. There's always the Scotland Office, the Foreign Office and the MoD.

    But, in all seriousness, having a PM representing a Scottish constituency in this day and age would pose not just constitutional questions but also significant presentational problems. They'd spend most of their time dealing with business that was irrelevant to their own constituents who, for most purposes, were represented by a completely separate Government that said leader had nothing at all to do with. It's more than a little bit silly.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,089
    Jacob Rees-Mogg suggests civil servant heads could roll in Sue Gray report while the PM keeps job

    "Politicians are subject to elections. Civil servants are subject to HR. HR does not apply to ministers because they have to retain confidence of the British people"

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1481323556906717186
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292

    We had just fought a war ostensibly against tyranny. We spilt much blood to make sure Europe, and large parts of the rest of the world, were free and could enjoy democracy. Why is it so hard for you to say that granting those same freedoms to India was a good thing?
    We went to war with Hitler only when he invaded Poland, not when he merged Germany with Austria and much of Czechoslovakia
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Bozo made it to top story on CNN for a bit before the Nato/Russia presser.

    Also noticed that Sky News decided to give him a kicking before and after PMQs.

    I've said it before and I'll say it again; I like the hair.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119

    So, what sort of dead cat do we think Johnson's team are likely digging up ready to chuck on the table?

    Prince Andrew has done the job for them, dutiful Royal that he is.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Suspect that a jury will show this guy that the previous jury didn't create a precedent, and he is going to spend time in jail.
    As one Tweet below says, he doesn't look like a Milo or a Sage so he is probably in trouble.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    TOPPING said:

    Yeah. An excuse as I said. But an SNP excuse so all good.
    A legal exception. But because it's SNP involved it can't be in your view. The reason I'm a bit short on this is that I have a deaf person in my family, and an elderly partly deaf relative - so I do know how and why these things happen.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    GIN1138 said:

    Backstabber maybe? Or perhaps he has principles and doesn't want to defend in the indefensible?

    Even Michael Green MP doesn't think Boris's behaviour can be defended? It's that bad! ;)
    Then he should say so. Whatever you think of Snapps, he was at least willing to come out in the open to show his unease. Rishi won't even do that.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    Scott_xP said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg suggests civil servant heads could roll in Sue Gray report while the PM keeps job

    "Politicians are subject to elections. Civil servants are subject to HR. HR does not apply to ministers because they have to retain confidence of the British people"

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1481323556906717186

    Ye Gods has JRM got any Press Relations skills or humanity at all.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714
    HYUFD said:

    35% of voters say they knowingly broke Covid rules during lockdown
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1481296627235229697?s=20

    100% of Prime Ministers of the UK knowingly broke Covid rules during lockdown.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    pigeon said:


    But, in all seriousness, having a PM representing a Scottish constituency in this day and age would pose not just constitutional questions but also significant presentational problems. They'd spend most of their time dealing with business that was irrelevant to their own constituents who, for most purposes, were represented by a completely separate Government that said leader had nothing at all to do with. It's more than a little bit silly.
    Just another reason to #AbolishHolyrood
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,484

    Well we have seen this before. Pissy man went to jail for handing himself in and apologising for being a total dickhead of having a pee next to a memorial, man who set like to Union Flag at the Cenotaph, not jailed.
    I presume the Union Flag was his own property, so he is entitled to burn it.
  • That is a really good and interesting article. Thanks for that. The Guardian long articles really are great reading.
    I’ve been reading The Grauniad for years, and yes there is a lot of hand-wringing middle class bollocks in there, no doubt. But, for me, on balance, it’s the best of the papers. They do a lot of very good stuff that far outweighs the shite for me. But I’m of the left so I would say that.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    Carnyx said:

    A legal exception. But because it's SNP involved it can't be in your view. The reason I'm a bit short on this is that I have a deaf person in my family, and an elderly partly deaf relative - so I do know how and why these things happen.
    Yes indeed I have a (stone) deaf person in my family also (mother) so spare me the feel my pain bit.

    If it was a legal exception to be able to take your mask off in the presence of a deaf person then I am gobsmacked and shows the idiocy of the whole thing. You said "an elderly person who couldn't hear her properly" so I know what let's remove the only thing that is preventing me infecting this elderly person and bellow into her face.

    She will have heard what Nicola said but might easily have caught Covid and dropped dead two weeks later.

    But this is fine in your book.
  • HYUFD said:

    Boris never personally challenged May, he only stood after she had resigned after the Tories were polling below 25% and had lost over 1,000 councillors and got just 9% in the European elections of 2019.

    Boris' differences with Theresa were also on policy ie over getting Brexit done and the nature of her deal, not personal vendetta like the attempted Cummings coup is. Same with Heseltine, his disagreements with Thatcher were over the poll tax and Europe, not personal as such.

    The only possible policy disagreement could be if Cummings and Sunak and Gove want tighter restrictions than Boris is imposing, which really would be a recipe for Tory civil war
    Rishi wants less restrictions and 5 day isolation

    I am surprised you did not know that
  • TOPPING said:

    Yes indeed I have a (stone) deaf person in my family also (mother) so spare me the feel my pain bit.

    If it was a legal exception to be able to take your mask off in the presence of a deaf person then I am gobsmacked and shows the idiocy of the whole thing. You said "an elderly person who couldn't hear her properly" so I know what let's remove the only thing that is preventing me infecting this elderly person and bellow into her face.

    She will have heard what Nicola said but might easily have caught Covid and dropped dead two weeks later.

    But this is fine in your book.
    Yep it was straight out of the Boris Johnson Pinocchio play book. She would have been better to have said she forgot to put it on.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838

    100% of Prime Ministers of the UK knowingly broke Covid rules during lockdown.
    I think you mean - something like - they are sorry if they did but maybe they didn't and we'll have to wait and see - or maybe the police will look at it and then we'll have to wait so long that everyone will have forgotten about it.
This discussion has been closed.