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So what should CON MPs and members do now? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 12 in General
imageSo what should CON MPs and members do now? – politicalbetting.com

Undoubtedly today’s PMQs was the toughest for Johnson since he became prime minister in July 2019. His attempts on previous occasions to minimise what happened at various gatherings during the strictest lockdown 2020 might have moved the dial in his favour a touch or it might not.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,175
    edited January 12
    First.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,262
    edited January 12
    Pray that Sue Gray's report says that Boris didn't do anything wrong.

    But I can't see how that can occur as clearly a party sorry a "Work Event" did occur.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,327
    Looks like Boris has found the real victim of this saga

    Laura Kuenssberg
    @bbclaurak
    ·
    6m
    Another Tory MP told me that in the tearoom the PM told him and colleagues 'it's not his fault and he's bravely taking the blame for others' - 'caused much consternation among colleagues' given that he'd just given a public apology
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,144
    So what should CON MPs and members do now?

    They should put BoZo out of their misery...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,467
    Put their heads in their hands and weep.
  • My decision to rejoin the Tory party and take part in a 2022 leadership election is proving very wise.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735
    fpt for Mister Formain, and other skeptics




    Did you see this?

    "Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab - but feared debate could hurt ‘international harmony’

    "Emails to Dr Anthony Fauci show ‘likely’ explanation identified at start of coronavirus pandemic, but there were worries about saying so"

    "Leading British and US scientists thought it was likely that Covid accidentally leaked from a laboratory but were concerned that further debate would harm science in China, emails show.

    "An email from Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, on February 2 2020 said that “a likely explanation” was that Covid had rapidly evolved from a Sars-like virus inside human tissue in a low-security lab.

    "The email, to Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Francis Collins of the US National Institutes of Health, went on to say that such evolution may have “accidentally created a virus primed for rapid transmission between humans”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/11/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-lab-feared-debate-could/

    It probably came from the lab, as I have been telling you for 18 months. This was also the opinion of many leading scientists right from the start, as I have been telling you for 18 months. it was probably engineered in the lab to be more transmissible, as I have been telling you for 18 months. But for various reasons there was a high level conspiracy to cover this up and crush an extremely plausible hypothesis: lab leak. As I have been telling you for 18 months.


  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,053

    My decision to rejoin the Tory party and take part in a 2022 leadership election is proving very wise.

    Who will you be backing?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,467
    I think this is a very smart take:

    Theo Bertram @theobertram

    Prediction: Sue Gray will wait to see if the politicians can clear up this mess without her but if they fail then eventually she will supply the ammunition (what choice does she have?) and then hand a perfectly loaded gun back to the politicians to pull the trigger.


    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1481292740906430468
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,144
    So far the defence of BoZo has come from those cabinet ministers who will never see office again when he goes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,015
    maaarsh said:

    Looks like Boris has found the real victim of this saga

    Laura Kuenssberg
    @bbclaurak
    ·
    6m
    Another Tory MP told me that in the tearoom the PM told him and colleagues 'it's not his fault and he's bravely taking the blame for others' - 'caused much consternation among colleagues' given that he'd just given a public apology

    Brave Boris setting up a few more fall guys, then.
    Was he "shocked and disgusted" at the way they's let him down ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,024
    They need to get rid of him. He has become a liability, and I cannot see a realistic way he can turn it around.

    So the question becomes one of timing. Do you get rid of him immediately, and hopefully staunch the flow of bad stories (or remove their effect); or do you wait a while? Is Covid a factor in the timing? Do you really want to change PM in the middle (well, hopefully tail-end) of such a big crisis?

    IMO they should get rid immediately. But I would have said that right before he called GE 2019, so my view might not be the best... ;)
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,917
    Leon said:

    fpt for Mister Formain, and other skeptics




    Did you see this?

    "Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab - but feared debate could hurt ‘international harmony’

    "Emails to Dr Anthony Fauci show ‘likely’ explanation identified at start of coronavirus pandemic, but there were worries about saying so"

    "Leading British and US scientists thought it was likely that Covid accidentally leaked from a laboratory but were concerned that further debate would harm science in China, emails show.

    "An email from Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, on February 2 2020 said that “a likely explanation” was that Covid had rapidly evolved from a Sars-like virus inside human tissue in a low-security lab.

    "The email, to Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Francis Collins of the US National Institutes of Health, went on to say that such evolution may have “accidentally created a virus primed for rapid transmission between humans”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/11/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-lab-feared-debate-could/

    It probably came from the lab, as I have been telling you for 18 months. This was also the opinion of many leading scientists right from the start, as I have been telling you for 18 months. it was probably engineered in the lab to be more transmissible, as I have been telling you for 18 months. But for various reasons there was a high level conspiracy to cover this up and crush an extremely plausible hypothesis: lab leak. As I have been telling you for 18 months.


    You are repeating repeating repeating yourself again old chap. The Wuhan lab as a possible source is a "no shit Sherlock" theory. Much more interested in your aliens stuff, or the many "we are all going to die" stories.
  • My decision to rejoin the Tory party and take part in a 2022 leadership election is proving very wise.

    Who will you be backing?
    Hunt, Sunak, or Truss.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,474
    kinabalu said:

    Aslan said:

    kinabalu said:

    So amused that AC Grayling thought that Rosie Holt was a real MP when he watched this..

    Rosie Holt
    @RosieisaHolt
    MP doesn’t know whether she attended Downing St Party
    https://twitter.com/RosieisaHolt/status/1480932023929823244

    TBF it can be hard to tell the spoof from the real these days.
    It is hard to think of someone who has destroyed a reputation for intelligence more over the last decade. He was once seen as a heavyweight intellectual, but he has been driven mad by Brexit. He has got so blinkered in his state of perpetual anger, he can't even tell an obviously humorous spoof right before his eyes.
    Still, I can relate. Not to being a heavyweight intellectual Remainiac (since I'm not a Remainiac) but to how hard it can be to spot a spoof. Like, the other day I saw this bloke on the the telly - crazy blond wig, bizarrio voice & facial expressions, coming out with one lurid cartoonishly reactionary statement after another with barely a pause for breath. What a great send-up, I thought, making a mental note of the name, Fabricant, with a view to checking out some of his stuff on YouTube.
    Thanks. I needed that. I’ll stop chuckling in a minute.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,262

    I think this is a very smart take:

    Theo Bertram @theobertram

    Prediction: Sue Gray will wait to see if the politicians can clear up this mess without her but if they fail then eventually she will supply the ammunition (what choice does she have?) and then hand a perfectly loaded gun back to the politicians to pull the trigger.


    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1481292740906430468

    Yep Sue Gray has an incredibly poisoned chalice to deal with - one that you hope disappears before you have to hand the finished report over because it's going to be a lot of words that say - yes there was a party and no there shouldn't have been one.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,144
    Scottish Tory Douglas Ross says Boris Johnson should resign - and says he will write to the 1922 Committee to express no confidence in his leadership. "It's his government that put these rules in place, and he has to be held to account for his actions."
    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1481294784652324871
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,144
    North East Conservative MSP and former co-leader of @AberdeenCC Douglas Lumsden joins Douglas Ross in calls for the PM to resign. https://twitter.com/dlumsden/status/1481293925025566724
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,024
    q: "SO WHAT SHOULD CON MPS AND MEMBERS DO NOW?"

    a: have a party?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 703
    I can't think of any previous Prime Minister who would have not resigned in this situation. Boris is desperate to last longer than Theresa and Gordon but it shouldn't be dragged out. The Tory MPs need to make the decision for him. Get the letters in now.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,262

    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    2m
    Douglas Ross, via
    @jamesmatthewsky


    “Regrettably, I have to say his position is no longer tenable. I spoke to the PM this afternoon & I set out my reasons and I explained to him my position.”

    Asked how the PM responded, Ross said their discussions would “remain between us.”
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,945
    If 53/54 do write in, with the additional damage reaching that threshold will engender, is there any prospect whatsoever of the resulting VOC locking him in for another year, or is it going to be like Delboy's masonic lodge application?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,500
    Leon said:

    fpt for Mister Formain, and other skeptics




    Did you see this?

    "Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab - but feared debate could hurt ‘international harmony’

    "Emails to Dr Anthony Fauci show ‘likely’ explanation identified at start of coronavirus pandemic, but there were worries about saying so"

    "Leading British and US scientists thought it was likely that Covid accidentally leaked from a laboratory but were concerned that further debate would harm science in China, emails show.

    "An email from Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, on February 2 2020 said that “a likely explanation” was that Covid had rapidly evolved from a Sars-like virus inside human tissue in a low-security lab.

    "The email, to Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Francis Collins of the US National Institutes of Health, went on to say that such evolution may have “accidentally created a virus primed for rapid transmission between humans”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/11/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-lab-feared-debate-could/

    It probably came from the lab, as I have been telling you for 18 months. This was also the opinion of many leading scientists right from the start, as I have been telling you for 18 months. it was probably engineered in the lab to be more transmissible, as I have been telling you for 18 months. But for various reasons there was a high level conspiracy to cover this up and crush an extremely plausible hypothesis: lab leak. As I have been telling you for 18 months.


    So they found one senior scientist who thought it was 50/50 and another 60/40. Not exactly conclusive? Unknowable this one.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564
    Scott_xP said:

    Scottish Tory Douglas Ross says Boris Johnson should resign - and says he will write to the 1922 Committee to express no confidence in his leadership. "It's his government that put these rules in place, and he has to be held to account for his actions."
    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1481294784652324871

    This one sounds significant.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564
    Pro_Rata said:

    If 53/54 do write in, with the additional damage reaching that threshold will engender, is there any prospect whatsoever of the resulting VOC locking him in for another year, or is it going to be like Delboy's masonic lodge application?

    May wasn't safe for 12 months after her VONC.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,144
    I fully support @Douglas4Moray in this call. I’m afraid the Prime Minister’s position is no longer tenable, he has lost public trust, and in the interests of the country and the Conservative Party he should step down.
    https://twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/1481295253529317379
    https://twitter.com/bbcscotlandnews/status/1481293718904840196
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564

    Leon said:

    fpt for Mister Formain, and other skeptics




    Did you see this?

    "Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab - but feared debate could hurt ‘international harmony’

    "Emails to Dr Anthony Fauci show ‘likely’ explanation identified at start of coronavirus pandemic, but there were worries about saying so"

    "Leading British and US scientists thought it was likely that Covid accidentally leaked from a laboratory but were concerned that further debate would harm science in China, emails show.

    "An email from Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, on February 2 2020 said that “a likely explanation” was that Covid had rapidly evolved from a Sars-like virus inside human tissue in a low-security lab.

    "The email, to Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Francis Collins of the US National Institutes of Health, went on to say that such evolution may have “accidentally created a virus primed for rapid transmission between humans”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/11/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-lab-feared-debate-could/

    It probably came from the lab, as I have been telling you for 18 months. This was also the opinion of many leading scientists right from the start, as I have been telling you for 18 months. it was probably engineered in the lab to be more transmissible, as I have been telling you for 18 months. But for various reasons there was a high level conspiracy to cover this up and crush an extremely plausible hypothesis: lab leak. As I have been telling you for 18 months.


    So they found one senior scientist who thought it was 50/50 and another 60/40. Not exactly conclusive? Unknowable this one.
    Is it? I naively think it would be as simple as comparing the genome of the virus in early cases to the samples they were studying in the lab.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,945
    RobD said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    If 53/54 do write in, with the additional damage reaching that threshold will engender, is there any prospect whatsoever of the resulting VOC locking him in for another year, or is it going to be like Delboy's masonic lodge application?

    May wasn't safe for 12 months after her VONC.
    I know.....but still....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735

    Leon said:

    fpt for Mister Formain, and other skeptics




    Did you see this?

    "Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab - but feared debate could hurt ‘international harmony’

    "Emails to Dr Anthony Fauci show ‘likely’ explanation identified at start of coronavirus pandemic, but there were worries about saying so"

    "Leading British and US scientists thought it was likely that Covid accidentally leaked from a laboratory but were concerned that further debate would harm science in China, emails show.

    "An email from Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, on February 2 2020 said that “a likely explanation” was that Covid had rapidly evolved from a Sars-like virus inside human tissue in a low-security lab.

    "The email, to Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Francis Collins of the US National Institutes of Health, went on to say that such evolution may have “accidentally created a virus primed for rapid transmission between humans”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/11/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-lab-feared-debate-could/

    It probably came from the lab, as I have been telling you for 18 months. This was also the opinion of many leading scientists right from the start, as I have been telling you for 18 months. it was probably engineered in the lab to be more transmissible, as I have been telling you for 18 months. But for various reasons there was a high level conspiracy to cover this up and crush an extremely plausible hypothesis: lab leak. As I have been telling you for 18 months.


    You are repeating repeating repeating yourself again old chap. The Wuhan lab as a possible source is a "no shit Sherlock" theory. Much more interested in your aliens stuff, or the many "we are all going to die" stories.
    You denied this for many many months, you silly twit. And described it as a mad "conspiracy theory". To be fair, you were hardly alone. The mass delusional stupidity on this issue has been quite something to witness

    A few frightened scientists, politicians, bureaucrats and editors of the Lancet, scared of upsetting China and scared that science would get the blame for killing ~20m people, hoodwinked the entire world, for a year, until it all fell apart
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,144
    Somewhere, in a corner of the Palace of Westminster, Mr Graham Brady counts his letters. https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1481295257866313730
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,144
    This is the killer

    Douglas Ross says he spoke to the PM this afternoon, and the PM ‘believes he has done nothing wrong’. So much for not pre-judging the Sue Gray inquiry.
    https://twitter.com/HRwritesnews/status/1481294303808917507
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,474

    Put their heads in their hands and weep.

    Have you rejoined the party yet Richard?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564
    Scott_xP said:

    Somewhere, in a corner of the Palace of Westminster, Mr Graham Brady counts his letters. https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1481295257866313730

    It would be cool for us nerds if Brady released a chart of letter count vs. date after the threshold is reached. Then we could see how accurate those repeated claims are.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    If Labour are over 10% ahead in the next round of polls then yes there will almost certainly be a VONC sooner than later.

    If however Boris has kept the Labour lead under 10% despite the media and opposition onslaught after the attempted Cummings coup I think he will survive. He should then be safe until the next general election, in May he can probably point to a few key Tory holds in the likes of Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea in the locals and in the 2023 locals the Tories did so awfully in 2019 anyway there is little further for them to fall.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,474
    Scott_xP said:

    North East Conservative MSP and former co-leader of @AberdeenCC Douglas Lumsden joins Douglas Ross in calls for the PM to resign. https://twitter.com/dlumsden/status/1481293925025566724

    Their internal polling must be dire.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,831
    Absolute lols at the Scottish case figures. Down almost 50% week on week.

    Everyone is going to shit their pants tomorrow.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,890
    Scott_xP said:

    Somewhere, in a corner of the Palace of Westminster, Mr Graham Brady counts his letters. https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1481295257866313730

    Difficult decision whether or not to send a letter now given he’s protected from another VONC for 12-months if he wins this one.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,262
    Scott_xP said:

    This is the killer

    Douglas Ross says he spoke to the PM this afternoon, and the PM ‘believes he has done nothing wrong’. So much for not pre-judging the Sue Gray inquiry.
    https://twitter.com/HRwritesnews/status/1481294303808917507

    likewise from below

    Laura Kuenssberg
    @bbclaurak
    ·
    6m
    Another Tory MP told me that in the tearoom the PM told him and colleagues 'it's not his fault and he's bravely taking the blame for others' - 'caused much consternation among colleagues' given that he'd just given a public apology

    The other point to add is that you are the boss of those others and the boss often takes responsibility for the actions of their staff.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    Scott_xP said:

    Scottish Tory Douglas Ross says Boris Johnson should resign - and says he will write to the 1922 Committee to express no confidence in his leadership. "It's his government that put these rules in place, and he has to be held to account for his actions."
    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1481294784652324871

    Scottish Tory MPs are less than 2% of Tory MPs overall
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,500
    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    fpt for Mister Formain, and other skeptics




    Did you see this?

    "Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab - but feared debate could hurt ‘international harmony’

    "Emails to Dr Anthony Fauci show ‘likely’ explanation identified at start of coronavirus pandemic, but there were worries about saying so"

    "Leading British and US scientists thought it was likely that Covid accidentally leaked from a laboratory but were concerned that further debate would harm science in China, emails show.

    "An email from Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, on February 2 2020 said that “a likely explanation” was that Covid had rapidly evolved from a Sars-like virus inside human tissue in a low-security lab.

    "The email, to Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Francis Collins of the US National Institutes of Health, went on to say that such evolution may have “accidentally created a virus primed for rapid transmission between humans”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/11/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-lab-feared-debate-could/

    It probably came from the lab, as I have been telling you for 18 months. This was also the opinion of many leading scientists right from the start, as I have been telling you for 18 months. it was probably engineered in the lab to be more transmissible, as I have been telling you for 18 months. But for various reasons there was a high level conspiracy to cover this up and crush an extremely plausible hypothesis: lab leak. As I have been telling you for 18 months.


    So they found one senior scientist who thought it was 50/50 and another 60/40. Not exactly conclusive? Unknowable this one.
    Is it? I naively think it would be as simple as comparing the genome of the virus in early cases to the samples they were studying in the lab.
    Do you trust the Chinese to be honest with you? Do you trust anti-Chinese interests to be honest with you? There will be many millions spent by lobbyists on both sides spinning this, even if just for clicks and advertising revenue from the likes of Leon.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,887
    My take with the obvious caveat that I am not a Tory MP nor even a supporter.

    What I think the Tory MPs want to have happen is for them to be able to hang on until after the May elections and then dump Johnson. What I suspect they fear the most is Starmer or someone else calling for a vote of No Confidence in Johnson where they are forced to back him. They will have to back him because they don't want an election before the new seat boundaries are in place and whilst the party as a whole is on the back foot. They want to be able to get rid of Johnson in their own time -and sooner rather than later - and replace him with someone they hope will be able to put all this stuff behind them.

    I am not sure if this is either possible or practical but it seems to me to be the only way they even start to recover.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,467

    Put their heads in their hands and weep.

    Have you rejoined the party yet Richard?
    No. I certainly won't until it comes to its senses, which it is nowhere near doing. Ditching Boris is of course a necessary condition for that, but it's far from being a sufficient one.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 703
    Covid - 129K cases, 2,049 admissions, 398 deaths

    New cases seem to be plummeting. Admissions flat with possible decline starting. Deaths up but a lot of backdating in the 398. MV beds lowest since 15th October.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,107

    My decision to rejoin the Tory party and take part in a 2022 leadership election is proving very wise.

    Who will you be backing?
    I took it to mean TSE would be standing himself :wink:
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,474
    HYUFD said:

    If Labour are over 10% ahead in the next round of polls then yes there will almost certainly be a VONC sooner than later.

    If however Boris has kept the Labour lead under 10% despite the media and opposition onslaught after the attempted Cummings coup I think he will survive. He should then be safe until the next general election, in May he can probably point to a few key Tory holds in the likes of Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea in the locals and in the 2023 locals the Tories did so awfully in 2019 anyway there is little further for them to fall.

    You’re making it up as you go along.
  • Selebian said:

    My decision to rejoin the Tory party and take part in a 2022 leadership election is proving very wise.

    Who will you be backing?
    I took it to mean TSE would be standing himself :wink:
    I am happy to serve as Prime Minister & Conservative Leader from the House of Lords.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,474
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scottish Tory Douglas Ross says Boris Johnson should resign - and says he will write to the 1922 Committee to express no confidence in his leadership. "It's his government that put these rules in place, and he has to be held to account for his actions."
    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1481294784652324871

    Scottish Tory MPs are less than 2% of Tory MPs overall
    Must be because the Union is so tremendously popular north of the border.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,890
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scottish Tory Douglas Ross says Boris Johnson should resign - and says he will write to the 1922 Committee to express no confidence in his leadership. "It's his government that put these rules in place, and he has to be held to account for his actions."
    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1481294784652324871

    Scottish Tory MPs are less than 2% of Tory MPs overall
    Just step away from the screen for a bit. I do it every so often when I find I’m spouting bollocks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    RobD said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    If 53/54 do write in, with the additional damage reaching that threshold will engender, is there any prospect whatsoever of the resulting VOC locking him in for another year, or is it going to be like Delboy's masonic lodge application?

    May wasn't safe for 12 months after her VONC.
    Only because of losing over 1,000 Tory councillors and falling below 30% of the vote in opinion polls and in the 2019 locals and getting just 9% in the 2019 Euros. The Euro elections are no more and the Tories are unlikely to do as badly as they did in the 2019 locals
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735

    Leon said:

    fpt for Mister Formain, and other skeptics




    Did you see this?

    "Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab - but feared debate could hurt ‘international harmony’

    "Emails to Dr Anthony Fauci show ‘likely’ explanation identified at start of coronavirus pandemic, but there were worries about saying so"

    "Leading British and US scientists thought it was likely that Covid accidentally leaked from a laboratory but were concerned that further debate would harm science in China, emails show.

    "An email from Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, on February 2 2020 said that “a likely explanation” was that Covid had rapidly evolved from a Sars-like virus inside human tissue in a low-security lab.

    "The email, to Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Francis Collins of the US National Institutes of Health, went on to say that such evolution may have “accidentally created a virus primed for rapid transmission between humans”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/11/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-lab-feared-debate-could/

    It probably came from the lab, as I have been telling you for 18 months. This was also the opinion of many leading scientists right from the start, as I have been telling you for 18 months. it was probably engineered in the lab to be more transmissible, as I have been telling you for 18 months. But for various reasons there was a high level conspiracy to cover this up and crush an extremely plausible hypothesis: lab leak. As I have been telling you for 18 months.


    So they found one senior scientist who thought it was 50/50 and another 60/40. Not exactly conclusive? Unknowable this one.
    That's Jeremy Farrar, the leader of the Wellcome Trust, who thought it was 70/30 lab leak, and said so

    Also this, from the earliest emails:


    "In the emails, Sir Jeremy said that other scientists also believed the virus could not have evolved naturally. One such scientist was Professor Mike Farzan, of Scripps Research, the expert who discovered how the original Sars virus binds to human cells.

    Scientists were particularly concerned by a part of Covid-19 called the furin cleavage site, a section of the spike protein which helps it enter cells and makes it so infectious to humans.

    Summarising Professor Farzan’s concerns in an email, Sir Jeremy said: “He is bothered by the furin site and has a hard time (to) explain that as an event outside the lab, though there are possible ways in nature but highly unlikely."

    And these guys

    "The emails also show that Bob Garry, of the University of Texas, was unconvinced that Covid-19 emerged naturally.

    “I just can’t figure out how this gets accomplished in nature,” he said.

    "Professor Andrew Rambaut, from the University of Edinburgh, also said that furin cleavage site “strikes me as unusual”. "


    And there are dozens more if you look at what is being revealed, right now, in the USA, it is all spilling out

    But of course you know better, but also you know that all this is "unknowable" so let's not bother trying to know. But you still somehow know. Is that right?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,435
    AlistairM said:

    Covid - 129K cases, 2,049 admissions, 398 deaths

    New cases seem to be plummeting. Admissions flat with possible decline starting. Deaths up but a lot of backdating in the 398. MV beds lowest since 15th October.

    The death figures are a bit daft, 398 people did not die of Omicron, they need to seperate the of and with numbers.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,474

    Put their heads in their hands and weep.

    Have you rejoined the party yet Richard?
    No. I certainly won't until it comes to its senses, which it is nowhere near doing. Ditching Boris is of course a necessary condition for that, but it's far from being a sufficient one.
    Sounds principled.

    Less principled folk seem to have re-joined a little early.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 18,982
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    fpt for Mister Formain, and other skeptics

    Did you see this?

    "Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab - but feared debate could hurt ‘international harmony’

    "Emails to Dr Anthony Fauci show ‘likely’ explanation identified at start of coronavirus pandemic, but there were worries about saying so"

    "Leading British and US scientists thought it was likely that Covid accidentally leaked from a laboratory but were concerned that further debate would harm science in China, emails show.

    "An email from Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, on February 2 2020 said that “a likely explanation” was that Covid had rapidly evolved from a Sars-like virus inside human tissue in a low-security lab.

    "The email, to Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Francis Collins of the US National Institutes of Health, went on to say that such evolution may have “accidentally created a virus primed for rapid transmission between humans”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/11/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-lab-feared-debate-could/

    It probably came from the lab, as I have been telling you for 18 months. This was also the opinion of many leading scientists right from the start, as I have been telling you for 18 months. it was probably engineered in the lab to be more transmissible, as I have been telling you for 18 months. But for various reasons there was a high level conspiracy to cover this up and crush an extremely plausible hypothesis: lab leak. As I have been telling you for 18 months.


    You are repeating repeating repeating yourself again old chap. The Wuhan lab as a possible source is a "no shit Sherlock" theory. Much more interested in your aliens stuff, or the many "we are all going to die" stories.
    You denied this for many many months, you silly twit. And described it as a mad "conspiracy theory". To be fair, you were hardly alone. The mass delusional stupidity on this issue has been quite something to witness

    A few frightened scientists, politicians, bureaucrats and editors of the Lancet, scared of upsetting China and scared that science would get the blame for killing ~20m people, hoodwinked the entire world, for a year, until it all fell apart
    "...you silly twit."

    You can tell it's way before Rioja-time ;-)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scottish Tory Douglas Ross says Boris Johnson should resign - and says he will write to the 1922 Committee to express no confidence in his leadership. "It's his government that put these rules in place, and he has to be held to account for his actions."
    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1481294784652324871

    Scottish Tory MPs are less than 2% of Tory MPs overall
    Must be because the Union is so tremendously popular north of the border.
    Opinion north of the border does not matter to a Tory government which would have a big majority even with 0 Scottish MPs and can refuse indyref2 indefinitely.

    Otherwise Scots have Holyrood for most of their domestic policy anyway
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 1,104
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This is the killer

    Douglas Ross says he spoke to the PM this afternoon, and the PM ‘believes he has done nothing wrong’. So much for not pre-judging the Sue Gray inquiry.
    https://twitter.com/HRwritesnews/status/1481294303808917507

    likewise from below

    Laura Kuenssberg
    @bbclaurak
    ·
    6m
    Another Tory MP told me that in the tearoom the PM told him and colleagues 'it's not his fault and he's bravely taking the blame for others' - 'caused much consternation among colleagues' given that he'd just given a public apology

    The other point to add is that you are the boss of those others and the boss often takes responsibility for the actions of their staff.
    I think he will have to go. But, at the end of the day, this so-called party is hardly Suez or, for that matter, Iraq, is it?
    Pretty small beer for a political beast the size of Boris to be finally toppled by something so inconsequential.
  • They should make Rishi Sunak PM. Partially my book speaking. 😉

    Earlier this week I said that the chance of Boris being replaced before the next election is 1/6 - I'd now uprate that to 4/6 I think its more likely he will be replaced than not.

    Who is more toast today, Boris or Prince Andrew? And is HYUFD still fighting the brave fight for both of them?
  • Any collapse in Peppa's final line of defence was going to start with someone proffering the pearl-handled revolver. Whilst he is a backbencher in Westminster and thus less box office than a serving cabinet minister, he IS the leader of the Scottish Conservatives. He isn't nobody.

    So, as Geoffrey Howe famously told the Commons, it is time for others to consider their positions...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646

    They should make Rishi Sunak PM. Partially my book speaking. 😉

    Earlier this week I said that the chance of Boris being replaced before the next election is 1/6 - I'd now uprate that to 4/6 I think its more likely he will be replaced than not.

    Who is more toast today, Boris or Prince Andrew? And is HYUFD still fighting the brave fight for both of them?

    Strange however still no action against all the other celebrities linked to Epstein bar Andrew from US law
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,217

    Put their heads in their hands and weep.

    Have you rejoined the party yet Richard?
    No. I certainly won't until it comes to its senses, which it is nowhere near doing. Ditching Boris is of course a necessary condition for that, but it's far from being a sufficient one.
    Sounds principled.

    Less principled folk seem to have re-joined a little early.
    All the really principled among us never left in the first place, because we didn't need to...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,467
    edited January 12

    Put their heads in their hands and weep.

    Have you rejoined the party yet Richard?
    No. I certainly won't until it comes to its senses, which it is nowhere near doing. Ditching Boris is of course a necessary condition for that, but it's far from being a sufficient one.
    Sounds principled.

    Less principled folk seem to have re-joined a little early.
    Well, to be fair, I can understand wanting to have a say in the next leader contest. It's just that I don't think the next leader contest is going to mark the end of the issues which caused me to resign; it wasn't just the choice of Boris (though that was bad enough), it was more the reasons behind that choice.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,262
    edited January 12

    Put their heads in their hands and weep.

    Have you rejoined the party yet Richard?
    No. I certainly won't until it comes to its senses, which it is nowhere near doing. Ditching Boris is of course a necessary condition for that, but it's far from being a sufficient one.
    Sounds principled.

    Less principled folk seem to have re-joined a little early.
    As a Tory party member you only really get 1 say in the party's leadership every X years - I can see why you may rejoin earlier to get your say.

    However I think the current Tory party membership are going to vote for the "truest" leader who is probably not TSE's choice.

    It's like me voting for Kendall in the 2015 leadership election - best of a poor selection of options when it was obvious as things went on who was going to win.

    Now in theory Tory MPs should remove the worst candidates but you can't always be so sure of that - see for example how the 2016 election ended up with the final 2...
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,366
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scottish Tory Douglas Ross says Boris Johnson should resign - and says he will write to the 1922 Committee to express no confidence in his leadership. "It's his government that put these rules in place, and he has to be held to account for his actions."
    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1481294784652324871

    Scottish Tory MPs are less than 2% of Tory MPs overall
    Must be because the Union is so tremendously popular north of the border.
    Opinion north of the border does not matter to a Tory government which would have a big majority even with 0 Scottish MPs and can refuse indyref2 indefinitely.

    Otherwise Scots have Holyrood for most of their domestic policy anyway
    "Domestic". Implying that Westminster is, what, foreign?
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 1,104
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scottish Tory Douglas Ross says Boris Johnson should resign - and says he will write to the 1922 Committee to express no confidence in his leadership. "It's his government that put these rules in place, and he has to be held to account for his actions."
    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1481294784652324871

    Scottish Tory MPs are less than 2% of Tory MPs overall
    Must be because the Union is so tremendously popular north of the border.
    Opinion north of the border does not matter to a Tory government which would have a big majority even with 0 Scottish MPs and can refuse indyref2 indefinitely.

    Otherwise Scots have Holyrood for most of their domestic policy anyway
    Wrong. Constitutional instability does matter to a Tory Govt. If there is a good reason for getting rid of Boris it's that he is catnip to the SNP. It's not at all surprising that Ruth Davidson and Douglas Ross have been so uncompromising. They know how we plays to Scottish public opinion.
  • Put their heads in their hands and weep.

    Have you rejoined the party yet Richard?
    No. I certainly won't until it comes to its senses, which it is nowhere near doing. Ditching Boris is of course a necessary condition for that, but it's far from being a sufficient one.
    Sounds principled.

    Less principled folk seem to have re-joined a little early.
    Oh Stuart.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 97
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scottish Tory Douglas Ross says Boris Johnson should resign - and says he will write to the 1922 Committee to express no confidence in his leadership. "It's his government that put these rules in place, and he has to be held to account for his actions."
    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1481294784652324871

    Scottish Tory MPs are less than 2% of Tory MPs overall
    Must be because the Union is so tremendously popular north of the border.
    Opinion north of the border does not matter to a Tory government which would have a big majority even with 0 Scottish MPs and can refuse indyref2 indefinitely.

    Otherwise Scots have Holyrood for most of their domestic policy anyway
    I know this topic is a well worn track, but surely opinion opinion on the Union north of the border should matter to all who wish to preserve the Union. Otherwise that neglect may come back to haunt the Union's supporters, maybe not tomorrow, maybe not this side of 2023/2024 but some day.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 4,141

    My take with the obvious caveat that I am not a Tory MP nor even a supporter.

    What I think the Tory MPs want to have happen is for them to be able to hang on until after the May elections and then dump Johnson. What I suspect they fear the most is Starmer or someone else calling for a vote of No Confidence in Johnson where they are forced to back him. They will have to back him because they don't want an election before the new seat boundaries are in place and whilst the party as a whole is on the back foot. They want to be able to get rid of Johnson in their own time -and sooner rather than later - and replace him with someone they hope will be able to put all this stuff behind them.

    I am not sure if this is either possible or practical but it seems to me to be the only way they even start to recover.

    It seems to me the time to move against him is now, rather than wait.

    The reason is that we are (hopefully) reaching the end of the tunnel when it comes to Covid and the restrictions it has caused. If that's the case, then a new leader will get a double boost - one from BJ going and one from the fact we are likely to be leading essentially free lives while a lot of the world continues to live under restrictions and education suffers terribly.

    If BJ stays when we are coming out of the lockdown, that bonus is lost. People will say "yes the Govt did a good job and, ok, so did Boris but he's still a lying sh1t". Far better to get rid of him now, that new leader to be installed and it is they who leads the country out of lockdown. Certainly would put the Tory party in a better position, especially coming into May.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,801
    UK cases by specimen date

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,801
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K

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  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,105
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scottish Tory Douglas Ross says Boris Johnson should resign - and says he will write to the 1922 Committee to express no confidence in his leadership. "It's his government that put these rules in place, and he has to be held to account for his actions."
    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1481294784652324871

    Scottish Tory MPs are less than 2% of Tory MPs overall
    Must be because the Union is so tremendously popular north of the border.
    Opinion north of the border does not matter to a Tory government which would have a big majority even with 0 Scottish MPs and can refuse indyref2 indefinitely.

    Otherwise Scots have Holyrood for most of their domestic policy anyway
    You really prefer to go that way just to save the neck of Boris?
  • My decision to rejoin the Tory party and take part in a 2022 leadership election is proving very wise.

    I might do the same but how does it work regarding the three months for rejoining? Is that three months before the vacancy is announced, or three months before the ballot?

    Unless he gets replaced after the May elections, it seems unlikely I'd be able to rejoin and still get a vote for a 2022 election since its looking like a 2022 election will be before May.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,801
    UK R

    image
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scottish Tory Douglas Ross says Boris Johnson should resign - and says he will write to the 1922 Committee to express no confidence in his leadership. "It's his government that put these rules in place, and he has to be held to account for his actions."
    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1481294784652324871

    Scottish Tory MPs are less than 2% of Tory MPs overall
    Must be because the Union is so tremendously popular north of the border.
    Opinion north of the border does not matter to a Tory government which would have a big majority even with 0 Scottish MPs and can refuse indyref2 indefinitely.

    Otherwise Scots have Holyrood for most of their domestic policy anyway
    Lets pick this apart:
    "Opinion north of the border does not matter to a Tory government"

    So the opinion of elected Scottish Conservative MPs doesn't matter? The opinion of the leader of the party in Scotland doesn't matter?

    "and can refuse indyref2 indefinitely"

    As you have no respect for party colleagues north of the border and do not think their opinions matter, I can understand why you keep reposting this.

    Unionist my arse. You vote for Welsh Nationalists, provide succour to Scottish Nationalists and only care about England.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,262
    HYUFD said:

    They should make Rishi Sunak PM. Partially my book speaking. 😉

    Earlier this week I said that the chance of Boris being replaced before the next election is 1/6 - I'd now uprate that to 4/6 I think its more likely he will be replaced than not.

    Who is more toast today, Boris or Prince Andrew? And is HYUFD still fighting the brave fight for both of them?

    Strange however still no action against all the other celebrities linked to Epstein bar Andrew from US law
    Do you know that - most people had enough sense to settle quietly...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,801
    Case summary

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  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 1,104

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This is the killer

    Douglas Ross says he spoke to the PM this afternoon, and the PM ‘believes he has done nothing wrong’. So much for not pre-judging the Sue Gray inquiry.
    https://twitter.com/HRwritesnews/status/1481294303808917507

    likewise from below

    Laura Kuenssberg
    @bbclaurak
    ·
    6m
    Another Tory MP told me that in the tearoom the PM told him and colleagues 'it's not his fault and he's bravely taking the blame for others' - 'caused much consternation among colleagues' given that he'd just given a public apology

    The other point to add is that you are the boss of those others and the boss often takes responsibility for the actions of their staff.
    I think he will have to go. But, at the end of the day, this so-called party is hardly Suez or, for that matter, Iraq, is it?
    Pretty small beer for a political beast the size of Boris to be finally toppled by something so inconsequential.
    Those who make the laws should not break the laws. It seems pretty fundamental to me.
    Well, I agree. But, actually, I don't think the event on the 20th was quite so black and white as that, although, 18 months later the optics are terrible.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,801
    Hospitals

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,801
    Deaths

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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,968

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This is the killer

    Douglas Ross says he spoke to the PM this afternoon, and the PM ‘believes he has done nothing wrong’. So much for not pre-judging the Sue Gray inquiry.
    https://twitter.com/HRwritesnews/status/1481294303808917507

    likewise from below

    Laura Kuenssberg
    @bbclaurak
    ·
    6m
    Another Tory MP told me that in the tearoom the PM told him and colleagues 'it's not his fault and he's bravely taking the blame for others' - 'caused much consternation among colleagues' given that he'd just given a public apology

    The other point to add is that you are the boss of those others and the boss often takes responsibility for the actions of their staff.
    I think he will have to go. But, at the end of the day, this so-called party is hardly Suez or, for that matter, Iraq, is it?
    Pretty small beer for a political beast the size of Boris to be finally toppled by something so inconsequential.
    Karma's a bitch. That's what happens.

    For the want of a nail etc etc ad nauseam.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scottish Tory Douglas Ross says Boris Johnson should resign - and says he will write to the 1922 Committee to express no confidence in his leadership. "It's his government that put these rules in place, and he has to be held to account for his actions."
    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1481294784652324871

    Scottish Tory MPs are less than 2% of Tory MPs overall
    Must be because the Union is so tremendously popular north of the border.
    Opinion north of the border does not matter to a Tory government which would have a big majority even with 0 Scottish MPs and can refuse indyref2 indefinitely.

    Otherwise Scots have Holyrood for most of their domestic policy anyway
    Lets pick this apart:
    "Opinion north of the border does not matter to a Tory government"

    So the opinion of elected Scottish Conservative MPs doesn't matter? The opinion of the leader of the party in Scotland doesn't matter?

    "and can refuse indyref2 indefinitely"

    As you have no respect for party colleagues north of the border and do not think their opinions matter, I can understand why you keep reposting this.

    Unionist my arse. You vote for Welsh Nationalists, provide succour to Scottish Nationalists and only care about England.
    Not compared to the majority of the Party that is not Scottish, it does not have a veto in the Tory Party as it does not have a veto UK wide either.

    England does not even have its own parliament unlike Scotland however so Scots should stop whinging
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,390
    Alistair said:

    Absolute lols at the Scottish case figures. Down almost 50% week on week.

    Everyone is going to shit their pants tomorrow.

    Why? Because of the change in reporting of tests?
  • eekeek Posts: 17,262
    Adam Payne
    @adampayne26
    ·
    2m
    I’m told the post-PMQs mood among Tory MPs elected in 2019 is “dark and subdued” with many feeling that they will lose their seats at the next election as things stand


    I suspect many of them are looking at the leadership options and finally grasping how screwed they actually are come the next election..

    The Red Wall seats may not be returning 100% red but they won't be very much blue left.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,801
    Age related data

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    Unpopular said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scottish Tory Douglas Ross says Boris Johnson should resign - and says he will write to the 1922 Committee to express no confidence in his leadership. "It's his government that put these rules in place, and he has to be held to account for his actions."
    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1481294784652324871

    Scottish Tory MPs are less than 2% of Tory MPs overall
    Must be because the Union is so tremendously popular north of the border.
    Opinion north of the border does not matter to a Tory government which would have a big majority even with 0 Scottish MPs and can refuse indyref2 indefinitely.

    Otherwise Scots have Holyrood for most of their domestic policy anyway
    I know this topic is a well worn track, but surely opinion opinion on the Union north of the border should matter to all who wish to preserve the Union. Otherwise that neglect may come back to haunt the Union's supporters, maybe not tomorrow, maybe not this side of 2023/2024 but some day.
    Maybe to a future Labour government, hence it is considering devomax.

    Not to a Tory government which can refuse indyref2 forever as long as it is in power
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 4,141
    eek said:

    Adam Payne
    @adampayne26
    ·
    2m
    I’m told the post-PMQs mood among Tory MPs elected in 2019 is “dark and subdued” with many feeling that they will lose their seats at the next election as things stand


    I suspect many of them are looking at the leadership options and finally grasping how screwed they actually are come the next election..

    The Red Wall seats may not be returning 100% red but they won't be very much blue left.

    And which candidates will appeal to RW voters? Not Rishi or Truss nor the present Cabinet.

    Look beyond them for the value bets.

  • HYUFD said:

    If Labour are over 10% ahead in the next round of polls then yes there will almost certainly be a VONC sooner than later.

    If however Boris has kept the Labour lead under 10% despite the media and opposition onslaught after the attempted Cummings coup I think he will survive. He should then be safe until the next general election, in May he can probably point to a few key Tory holds in the likes of Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea in the locals and in the 2023 locals the Tories did so awfully in 2019 anyway there is little further for them to fall.

    This is not a Cummings coup

    Boris is responsible for wallpapergate, partygate, Paterson debacle, and sleeze and as my son ( who is a conservative) said Carrie has been at the heart of this with her extravagant entitled attitude and love of parties

    You need to accept Boris is totally self inflicted toast
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646

    HYUFD said:

    If Labour are over 10% ahead in the next round of polls then yes there will almost certainly be a VONC sooner than later.

    If however Boris has kept the Labour lead under 10% despite the media and opposition onslaught after the attempted Cummings coup I think he will survive. He should then be safe until the next general election, in May he can probably point to a few key Tory holds in the likes of Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea in the locals and in the 2023 locals the Tories did so awfully in 2019 anyway there is little further for them to fall.

    This is not a Cummings coup

    Boris is responsible for wallpapergate, partygate, Paterson debacle, and sleeze and as my son ( who is a conservative) said Carrie has been at the heart of this with her extravagant entitled attitude and love of parties

    You need to accept Boris is totally self inflicted toast
    No, this is a Cummings coup with leaks done to advance his agenda
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735
    "Whatever the truth of covid origins, and whether or not the truth ever emerges, this is starting to look like a scientific scandal of the greatest magnitude"

    https://twitter.com/Heresy_Corner/status/1481299494482419718?s=20

    "Why did scientists suppress the lab-leak theory? | In private, they said it was plausible. In public, they called it a conspiracy theory."

    https://twitter.com/mattwridley/status/1481286692455821314?s=20


    This is indeed the greatest scientific scandal of our time, and this is true EVEN IF IT DIDN'T COME FROM THE LAB

    Tho of course it almost certainly did
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,474
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scottish Tory Douglas Ross says Boris Johnson should resign - and says he will write to the 1922 Committee to express no confidence in his leadership. "It's his government that put these rules in place, and he has to be held to account for his actions."
    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1481294784652324871

    Scottish Tory MPs are less than 2% of Tory MPs overall
    Must be because the Union is so tremendously popular north of the border.
    Opinion north of the border does not matter to a Tory government which would have a big majority even with 0 Scottish MPs and can refuse indyref2 indefinitely.

    Otherwise Scots have Holyrood for most of their domestic policy anyway
    I wish I could share all the love that's in my heart
    Remove all the bars that keep us apart
    I wish you could know what it means to be me
    Then you'd see and agree
    That every man should be free
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,899
    HYUFD said:

    If Labour are over 10% ahead in the next round of polls then yes there will almost certainly be a VONC sooner than later.

    If however Boris has kept the Labour lead under 10% despite the media and opposition onslaught after the attempted Cummings coup I think he will survive. He should then be safe until the next general election, in May he can probably point to a few key Tory holds in the likes of Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea in the locals and in the 2023 locals the Tories did so awfully in 2019 anyway there is little further for them to fall.

    What do think happens if there are further stories, pictures etc, and a gradual erosion of the lead? A sudden jump back to a 10% Labour lead next week would maybe create enough panic, but would a drip of 1-2% with each revelation, evidence of further lies in the House, and abject non-apology ever be enough to give the party courage to act.

    Assuming, of course, that any kind of principled stand is too much expect from Tory MPs and it's all down to the polls.
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scottish Tory Douglas Ross says Boris Johnson should resign - and says he will write to the 1922 Committee to express no confidence in his leadership. "It's his government that put these rules in place, and he has to be held to account for his actions."
    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1481294784652324871

    Scottish Tory MPs are less than 2% of Tory MPs overall
    You are a disgrace to the conservative party and an utter embarrassment for those of us who want a decent and honest party
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,105

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This is the killer

    Douglas Ross says he spoke to the PM this afternoon, and the PM ‘believes he has done nothing wrong’. So much for not pre-judging the Sue Gray inquiry.
    https://twitter.com/HRwritesnews/status/1481294303808917507

    likewise from below

    Laura Kuenssberg
    @bbclaurak
    ·
    6m
    Another Tory MP told me that in the tearoom the PM told him and colleagues 'it's not his fault and he's bravely taking the blame for others' - 'caused much consternation among colleagues' given that he'd just given a public apology

    The other point to add is that you are the boss of those others and the boss often takes responsibility for the actions of their staff.
    I think he will have to go. But, at the end of the day, this so-called party is hardly Suez or, for that matter, Iraq, is it?
    Pretty small beer for a political beast the size of Boris to be finally toppled by something so inconsequential.
    If it was his first strike, effectively - you'd be right, I reckon. But it's more like death by a thousand cuts.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,015

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This is the killer

    Douglas Ross says he spoke to the PM this afternoon, and the PM ‘believes he has done nothing wrong’. So much for not pre-judging the Sue Gray inquiry.
    https://twitter.com/HRwritesnews/status/1481294303808917507

    likewise from below

    Laura Kuenssberg
    @bbclaurak
    ·
    6m
    Another Tory MP told me that in the tearoom the PM told him and colleagues 'it's not his fault and he's bravely taking the blame for others' - 'caused much consternation among colleagues' given that he'd just given a public apology

    The other point to add is that you are the boss of those others and the boss often takes responsibility for the actions of their staff.
    I think he will have to go. But, at the end of the day, this so-called party is hardly Suez or, for that matter, Iraq, is it?
    Pretty small beer for a political beast the size of Boris to be finally toppled by something so inconsequential.
    Those who make the laws should not break the laws. It seems pretty fundamental to me.
    Well, I agree. But, actually, I don't think the event on the 20th was quite so black and white as that, although, 18 months later the optics are terrible.
    I'm not sure the nature of any of the individual events is entirely clearcut.
    But the PM was quite happy to declare himself outraged over some of them, and watch underlings resign while denying any knowledge. It is that which makes his position utterly indefensible.
  • pingping Posts: 1,645
    MrEd said:

    eek said:

    Adam Payne
    @adampayne26
    ·
    2m
    I’m told the post-PMQs mood among Tory MPs elected in 2019 is “dark and subdued” with many feeling that they will lose their seats at the next election as things stand


    I suspect many of them are looking at the leadership options and finally grasping how screwed they actually are come the next election..

    The Red Wall seats may not be returning 100% red but they won't be very much blue left.

    And which candidates will appeal to RW voters? Not Rishi or Truss nor the present Cabinet.

    Look beyond them for the value bets.

    I’ve been thinking along those lines.

    My first suggestion is Robert Halfon. Come on PB, let’s brainstorm…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scottish Tory Douglas Ross says Boris Johnson should resign - and says he will write to the 1922 Committee to express no confidence in his leadership. "It's his government that put these rules in place, and he has to be held to account for his actions."
    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1481294784652324871

    Scottish Tory MPs are less than 2% of Tory MPs overall
    You are a disgrace to the conservative party and an utter embarrassment for those of us who want a decent and honest party
    Says the man who does not even vote Tory at many general elections
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,036

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This is the killer

    Douglas Ross says he spoke to the PM this afternoon, and the PM ‘believes he has done nothing wrong’. So much for not pre-judging the Sue Gray inquiry.
    https://twitter.com/HRwritesnews/status/1481294303808917507

    likewise from below

    Laura Kuenssberg
    @bbclaurak
    ·
    6m
    Another Tory MP told me that in the tearoom the PM told him and colleagues 'it's not his fault and he's bravely taking the blame for others' - 'caused much consternation among colleagues' given that he'd just given a public apology

    The other point to add is that you are the boss of those others and the boss often takes responsibility for the actions of their staff.
    I think he will have to go. But, at the end of the day, this so-called party is hardly Suez or, for that matter, Iraq, is it?
    Pretty small beer for a political beast the size of Boris to be finally toppled by something so inconsequential.
    Those who make the laws should not break the laws. It seems pretty fundamental to me.
    Well, I agree. But, actually, I don't think the event on the 20th was quite so black and white as that, although, 18 months later the optics are terrible.
    It's more than the law, really.
    Those who launch fearmongering campaigns against the population attempting to terrify them into submission shouldn't be having parties when they think no-one can see.

    Or - my preference - if you don't want people to mind about you having a few drinks after work, don't be trying to terrify your population into submission.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,500
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    fpt for Mister Formain, and other skeptics




    Did you see this?

    "Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab - but feared debate could hurt ‘international harmony’

    "Emails to Dr Anthony Fauci show ‘likely’ explanation identified at start of coronavirus pandemic, but there were worries about saying so"

    "Leading British and US scientists thought it was likely that Covid accidentally leaked from a laboratory but were concerned that further debate would harm science in China, emails show.

    "An email from Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, on February 2 2020 said that “a likely explanation” was that Covid had rapidly evolved from a Sars-like virus inside human tissue in a low-security lab.

    "The email, to Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Francis Collins of the US National Institutes of Health, went on to say that such evolution may have “accidentally created a virus primed for rapid transmission between humans”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/11/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-lab-feared-debate-could/

    It probably came from the lab, as I have been telling you for 18 months. This was also the opinion of many leading scientists right from the start, as I have been telling you for 18 months. it was probably engineered in the lab to be more transmissible, as I have been telling you for 18 months. But for various reasons there was a high level conspiracy to cover this up and crush an extremely plausible hypothesis: lab leak. As I have been telling you for 18 months.


    So they found one senior scientist who thought it was 50/50 and another 60/40. Not exactly conclusive? Unknowable this one.
    That's Jeremy Farrar, the leader of the Wellcome Trust, who thought it was 70/30 lab leak, and said so

    Also this, from the earliest emails:


    "In the emails, Sir Jeremy said that other scientists also believed the virus could not have evolved naturally. One such scientist was Professor Mike Farzan, of Scripps Research, the expert who discovered how the original Sars virus binds to human cells.

    Scientists were particularly concerned by a part of Covid-19 called the furin cleavage site, a section of the spike protein which helps it enter cells and makes it so infectious to humans.

    Summarising Professor Farzan’s concerns in an email, Sir Jeremy said: “He is bothered by the furin site and has a hard time (to) explain that as an event outside the lab, though there are possible ways in nature but highly unlikely."

    And these guys

    "The emails also show that Bob Garry, of the University of Texas, was unconvinced that Covid-19 emerged naturally.

    “I just can’t figure out how this gets accomplished in nature,” he said.

    "Professor Andrew Rambaut, from the University of Edinburgh, also said that furin cleavage site “strikes me as unusual”. "


    And there are dozens more if you look at what is being revealed, right now, in the USA, it is all spilling out

    But of course you know better, but also you know that all this is "unknowable" so let's not bother trying to know. But you still somehow know. Is that right?
    Farrar changed his mind from 70/30 to 50/50 so over time thought it less likely. If you ask him today he might give a different percentage again. In five years time yet another percentage. I doubt even he will get to 100/0 so yes for the likes of you and I it is unknowable. Perhaps a few people in the CCP or the Wuhan lab do really know.
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