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So what should CON MPs and members do now? – politicalbetting.com
So what should CON MPs and members do now? – politicalbetting.com
Undoubtedly today’s PMQs was the toughest for Johnson since he became prime minister in July 2019. His attempts on previous occasions to minimise what happened at various gatherings during the strictest lockdown 2020 might have moved the dial in his favour a touch or it might not.
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But I can't see how that can occur as clearly a party sorry a "Work Event" did occur.
Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
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6m
Another Tory MP told me that in the tearoom the PM told him and colleagues 'it's not his fault and he's bravely taking the blame for others' - 'caused much consternation among colleagues' given that he'd just given a public apology
They should put BoZo out of their misery...
Did you see this?
"Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab - but feared debate could hurt ‘international harmony’
"Emails to Dr Anthony Fauci show ‘likely’ explanation identified at start of coronavirus pandemic, but there were worries about saying so"
"Leading British and US scientists thought it was likely that Covid accidentally leaked from a laboratory but were concerned that further debate would harm science in China, emails show.
"An email from Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, on February 2 2020 said that “a likely explanation” was that Covid had rapidly evolved from a Sars-like virus inside human tissue in a low-security lab.
"The email, to Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Francis Collins of the US National Institutes of Health, went on to say that such evolution may have “accidentally created a virus primed for rapid transmission between humans”.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/11/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-lab-feared-debate-could/
It probably came from the lab, as I have been telling you for 18 months. This was also the opinion of many leading scientists right from the start, as I have been telling you for 18 months. it was probably engineered in the lab to be more transmissible, as I have been telling you for 18 months. But for various reasons there was a high level conspiracy to cover this up and crush an extremely plausible hypothesis: lab leak. As I have been telling you for 18 months.
Theo Bertram @theobertram
Prediction: Sue Gray will wait to see if the politicians can clear up this mess without her but if they fail then eventually she will supply the ammunition (what choice does she have?) and then hand a perfectly loaded gun back to the politicians to pull the trigger.
https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1481292740906430468
Was he "shocked and disgusted" at the way they's let him down ?
So the question becomes one of timing. Do you get rid of him immediately, and hopefully staunch the flow of bad stories (or remove their effect); or do you wait a while? Is Covid a factor in the timing? Do you really want to change PM in the middle (well, hopefully tail-end) of such a big crisis?
IMO they should get rid immediately. But I would have said that right before he called GE 2019, so my view might not be the best...
https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1481294784652324871
a: have a party?
Beth Rigby
@BethRigby
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2m
Douglas Ross, via
@jamesmatthewsky
“Regrettably, I have to say his position is no longer tenable. I spoke to the PM this afternoon & I set out my reasons and I explained to him my position.”
Asked how the PM responded, Ross said their discussions would “remain between us.”
https://twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/1481295253529317379
https://twitter.com/bbcscotlandnews/status/1481293718904840196
A few frightened scientists, politicians, bureaucrats and editors of the Lancet, scared of upsetting China and scared that science would get the blame for killing ~20m people, hoodwinked the entire world, for a year, until it all fell apart
Douglas Ross says he spoke to the PM this afternoon, and the PM ‘believes he has done nothing wrong’. So much for not pre-judging the Sue Gray inquiry.
https://twitter.com/HRwritesnews/status/1481294303808917507
If however Boris has kept the Labour lead under 10% despite the media and opposition onslaught after the attempted Cummings coup I think he will survive. He should then be safe until the next general election, in May he can probably point to a few key Tory holds in the likes of Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea in the locals and in the 2023 locals the Tories did so awfully in 2019 anyway there is little further for them to fall.
Everyone is going to shit their pants tomorrow.
Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
·
6m
Another Tory MP told me that in the tearoom the PM told him and colleagues 'it's not his fault and he's bravely taking the blame for others' - 'caused much consternation among colleagues' given that he'd just given a public apology
The other point to add is that you are the boss of those others and the boss often takes responsibility for the actions of their staff.
What I think the Tory MPs want to have happen is for them to be able to hang on until after the May elections and then dump Johnson. What I suspect they fear the most is Starmer or someone else calling for a vote of No Confidence in Johnson where they are forced to back him. They will have to back him because they don't want an election before the new seat boundaries are in place and whilst the party as a whole is on the back foot. They want to be able to get rid of Johnson in their own time -and sooner rather than later - and replace him with someone they hope will be able to put all this stuff behind them.
I am not sure if this is either possible or practical but it seems to me to be the only way they even start to recover.
New cases seem to be plummeting. Admissions flat with possible decline starting. Deaths up but a lot of backdating in the 398. MV beds lowest since 15th October.
Also this, from the earliest emails:
"In the emails, Sir Jeremy said that other scientists also believed the virus could not have evolved naturally. One such scientist was Professor Mike Farzan, of Scripps Research, the expert who discovered how the original Sars virus binds to human cells.
Scientists were particularly concerned by a part of Covid-19 called the furin cleavage site, a section of the spike protein which helps it enter cells and makes it so infectious to humans.
Summarising Professor Farzan’s concerns in an email, Sir Jeremy said: “He is bothered by the furin site and has a hard time (to) explain that as an event outside the lab, though there are possible ways in nature but highly unlikely."
And these guys
"The emails also show that Bob Garry, of the University of Texas, was unconvinced that Covid-19 emerged naturally.
“I just can’t figure out how this gets accomplished in nature,” he said.
"Professor Andrew Rambaut, from the University of Edinburgh, also said that furin cleavage site “strikes me as unusual”. "
And there are dozens more if you look at what is being revealed, right now, in the USA, it is all spilling out
But of course you know better, but also you know that all this is "unknowable" so let's not bother trying to know. But you still somehow know. Is that right?
Less principled folk seem to have re-joined a little early.
You can tell it's way before Rioja-time ;-)
Otherwise Scots have Holyrood for most of their domestic policy anyway
Pretty small beer for a political beast the size of Boris to be finally toppled by something so inconsequential.
Earlier this week I said that the chance of Boris being replaced before the next election is 1/6 - I'd now uprate that to 4/6 I think its more likely he will be replaced than not.
Who is more toast today, Boris or Prince Andrew? And is HYUFD still fighting the brave fight for both of them?
So, as Geoffrey Howe famously told the Commons, it is time for others to consider their positions...
However I think the current Tory party membership are going to vote for the "truest" leader who is probably not TSE's choice.
It's like me voting for Kendall in the 2015 leadership election - best of a poor selection of options when it was obvious as things went on who was going to win.
Now in theory Tory MPs should remove the worst candidates but you can't always be so sure of that - see for example how the 2016 election ended up with the final 2...
The reason is that we are (hopefully) reaching the end of the tunnel when it comes to Covid and the restrictions it has caused. If that's the case, then a new leader will get a double boost - one from BJ going and one from the fact we are likely to be leading essentially free lives while a lot of the world continues to live under restrictions and education suffers terribly.
If BJ stays when we are coming out of the lockdown, that bonus is lost. People will say "yes the Govt did a good job and, ok, so did Boris but he's still a lying sh1t". Far better to get rid of him now, that new leader to be installed and it is they who leads the country out of lockdown. Certainly would put the Tory party in a better position, especially coming into May.
Unless he gets replaced after the May elections, it seems unlikely I'd be able to rejoin and still get a vote for a 2022 election since its looking like a 2022 election will be before May.
"Opinion north of the border does not matter to a Tory government"
So the opinion of elected Scottish Conservative MPs doesn't matter? The opinion of the leader of the party in Scotland doesn't matter?
"and can refuse indyref2 indefinitely"
As you have no respect for party colleagues north of the border and do not think their opinions matter, I can understand why you keep reposting this.
Unionist my arse. You vote for Welsh Nationalists, provide succour to Scottish Nationalists and only care about England.
For the want of a nail etc etc ad nauseam.
Boris attending a party really should be nothing other than tiddle-tattle in normal circumstances but since he'd made gatherings illegal it quite simply isn't.
Had he not taken away all our liberties then this wouldn't be an issue. But he did, and if he broke his own rules, he needs to go.
There's no ifs or buts about that. Its a matter of right or wrong.
England does not even have its own parliament unlike Scotland however so Scots should stop whinging
@adampayne26
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2m
I’m told the post-PMQs mood among Tory MPs elected in 2019 is “dark and subdued” with many feeling that they will lose their seats at the next election as things stand
I suspect many of them are looking at the leadership options and finally grasping how screwed they actually are come the next election..
The Red Wall seats may not be returning 100% red but they won't be very much blue left.
Not to a Tory government which can refuse indyref2 forever as long as it is in power
Look beyond them for the value bets.
Boris is responsible for wallpapergate, partygate, Paterson debacle, and sleeze and as my son ( who is a conservative) said Carrie has been at the heart of this with her extravagant entitled attitude and love of parties
You need to accept Boris is totally self inflicted toast
https://twitter.com/Heresy_Corner/status/1481299494482419718?s=20
"Why did scientists suppress the lab-leak theory? | In private, they said it was plausible. In public, they called it a conspiracy theory."
https://twitter.com/mattwridley/status/1481286692455821314?s=20
This is indeed the greatest scientific scandal of our time, and this is true EVEN IF IT DIDN'T COME FROM THE LAB
Tho of course it almost certainly did
Remove all the bars that keep us apart
I wish you could know what it means to be me
Then you'd see and agree
That every man should be free
Assuming, of course, that any kind of principled stand is too much expect from Tory MPs and it's all down to the polls.
But the PM was quite happy to declare himself outraged over some of them, and watch underlings resign while denying any knowledge. It is that which makes his position utterly indefensible.
My first suggestion is Robert Halfon. Come on PB, let’s brainstorm…
If Boris broke his own rules he needs to resign, no ifs or buts. What his wife did or didn't do is immaterial to that. He is responsible for his own actions - not Cummings, not Carrie or anyone else.
The buck stops with him, nobody else.
Those who launch fearmongering campaigns against the population attempting to terrify them into submission shouldn't be having parties when they think no-one can see.
Or - my preference - if you don't want people to mind about you having a few drinks after work, don't be trying to terrify your population into submission.