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Four months of the weekly local by-election bet – politicalbetting.com
Four months of the weekly local by-election bet – politicalbetting.com
Last September, the politics team at Smarkets decided to start offering a market on one local by-election every week. We’ve had a look back at the results to see if we could learn anything about whether the betting markets provided any useful information about the outcomes.
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https://youtu.be/t-33w1Kf0Mg
"if it was a planned coup, it was the worst one ever"
It didn't succeed because one man, Mike Pence, refused to do Trump's bidding. He wanted to and consulted Dan Quayle (of all people) and was told he didn;t have any option but to do his ceremonial duty.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIGik9MJzcs
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/i-stand-with-novak-djokovic
It’s still not clear this was a directed insurrection, ie one consciously planned by Trump and/or his consiglieres. Trump’s rhetoric was inflammatory, but was it consciously inciting a coup?
I do find it weird though that some of the insurrectionists seemed to decide that Pence needed to be dealt with, though. I thought Pence was considered “one of us”, until the moment he decided he wasn’t.
U.S. Catches Kremlin Insider Who May Have Secrets of 2016 Hack
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-03/kremlin-insider-klyushin-is-said-to-have-2016-hack-details
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-fear-insider-extradited-from-switzerland-to-us-may-have-defected/ar-AASo7Kv
Has Nadine Dorries tweeted anything about Stoke’s decision to lay off its curatorial staff yet?
Levelling up? More like giving up.
The legal analysis in Sumption's first paragraph would be liable to receive a failing grade if it appeared in a first year undergraduate law essay. Simply put, he does not acknowledge the existence of excuses in the law of criminal damage, which were argued and put to the jury.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/08/make-no-mistake-colston-four-verdict-undermined-rule-law/
https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1479805731733970950
Assuming that Cheyne was PNG to the Trumpists as would be democrat VPs, then Quayle sounds like a sensible choice for a second opinion
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/tennis/2022/01/08/novak-djokovic-granted-vaccine-exemption-getting-covid-last/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-59917300
I would have been better betting on pond life today.
Malcs early strike, again doesn’t go winless. And two seconds Malc, do you get anything for them?
And even the sharpest decline.
I saw it with my Grandfather. A sharp man and a successful farmer. But a man
whose biases seemed to become more entrenched and harder to shake as he aged.
Looks like the mirrors have deployed successfully.
Although I think you are both missing another key point - Quayle and Pence knew each other well as prominent Indiana Republicans and ardent evangelical conservatives. So from that point of view perhaps this was less 'seeking advice from a former Veep' than 'seeking advice from a political friend and ally.'
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England
Interestingly, peak hospitalisation seems to correspond to peak positive tests - which I suppose is not unexpected if large numbers of hospitalisations are incidentals.
Verizon promised I’d have it last Wednesday.
Various things seem a bit backward here, though I’ll wait a while to give a definitive report…
I understand that this is looking for images that date to the earliest stars in the universe which have had to travel billions of light years to reach us, which explains why we can essentially "look back in time" to the first stars in the universe.
But what I don't understand is why that light hasn't passed us by already?
Unless we've been travelling from the origins of the universe at either the speed of light or faster than it, why haven't we already missed those images?
It's fortuitous that we haven't but that's the one bit I don't understand so if someone who understands astrophysics better could answer that question I'd be very curious.
Losing to Cambridge
I once tried to ask Brian Cox something similar at a huge conference where he was the guest speaker. Probably fortunately for me, the 'audience questions' microphone never came my way. I am sure I would have ended up hashing the question and looking very silly ;-)
But I would genuinely love to know the answer.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00057m8
His other stuff is a bit meh.
I think
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expansion_of_the_universe
e.g. 5:30
What you needed today - pond life, with 8 legs for extra speed.
World's richest club indeed.
06/01 16,058
07/01 16,163
08/01 16,034
New infections seem to be on a definite downward path with the peak being 29/12.
Time to talk about removing restrictions.
I was surprised to see the total in hospital has also dropped very slightly today! it feels too soon, and I suspect will be revised up slightly in the next few days.
Time now, or very soon, to drop the last of the restrictions, in particular the 7 day minimum isolation even for non-symptomatic and masks in schools
- Cases are up, but slowing. R is massively down everywhere. London is now flat. NI is getting hit pretty hard.
- Admissions - going up, but the R is, again, dropping.
- Mechanical ventilator beds - even taking not account missing data for Scotland & NI, definitely down.
- Deaths. We are seeing the long expected rise, sadly. Gradual - but I wonder if we are going to see coming thing like London, which was hit early -
I can understand eg if we're traveling at 0.7c in one direction and something else is traveling at 0.7c in another direction then relatively that is expansion of faster than the speed of light, without actually traveling faster than it.
But we aren't looking for where those stars are now, we are looking for where they were then.
These stars we are looking for I would have thought wouldn't have had relatively that much time to travel in the opposite direction by when they emitted the light we are looking for. What am I missing?
As I'm besmirching the intelligence of our elderly judges. I would like to put myself forward for the next supreme court vacancy.
Why you ask. Well I've been playing Wordle and managed to find the word in two.
I'll accept attorney general as I feel two would be beyond the current occupant and I may return some rigour to the office.
Wordle 203 2/6
🟨🟨⬜⬜⬜
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
https://www.powerlanguage.co.uk/wordle/
That’s dangerous because you then fall into the “we have to destroy democracy to protect democracy” trap. What I find most fascinating - and worrying - is that no one (and I mean no one) who has commented on the argument - has seen it fit to condemn that one Presidential candidate deliberately presenting false evidence to a special court to have the FBI spy on their opponent. And nor have they said that’s a “crock of sh1t” so we can at least get into the argument of showing data sources and evidence. It’s almost as though your belief in the other side as uniquely evil means that any means, fair or foul, is legitimate.
Similarly, the situation in the NHS coupled with the implosion of the testing system means isolation for the asymptomatic is likely to be a dead letter within about a fortnight.
I don't really understand your second question.
We can be slightly more confident in London, which had the outbreak earlier.
Not clear that Plan B has made much difference, other than to trash the hospitality sector before Christmas.
But its interesting that the number on ventilators has been falling - which suggests that those being hospitalised with Omicron are less seriously ill and so are likely to be leaving hospital sooner.
There's also the possibility that the number of anti-vaxxers not previously infected has now reached such minimal levels that they're having less of an effect on hospital numbers.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expansion_of_the_universe
The other point is that while nothing can travel through spacetime faster than light, spacetime itself can expand faster than light (because spacetime is stretching, not travelling through itself)
but if you are someone else altogether then I am deeply sorry and hereby undertake never to repeat the allegations complained about from now until the last syllable of recorded time.
The second question was that I'd have thought we'd be looking at the universe as it had expanded when the light was emitted, not as expanded as it is now.
But it seems like despite the light travelling towards us it is still expanding away from us as time goes on too. Despite the fact the expansion took place after the light leaving it's point of origin, which seems counterintuitive to me.
When Walker's crisps first did their books for schools tokens they called it NATIONAL YEAR OF READING. I briefly wondered wtf Reading could have done to deserve its own "national year"!
So A->B may have only been (say) 1,000 light years when it was emitted, but the universe expanded by a factor of (say) 1,000,000 in a year (these are just made up numbers), so it now has to travel for a billion years to traverse that distance.
Its why most people who were pushing the Russiagate narrative most strongly are now running away from it as though it’s got anthrax and one or two have even apologised. The indictments have already been going out on deliberately presenting false evidence