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Introducing the LAB-LD “pact” that doesn’t exist and won’t – politicalbetting.com

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    AlistairM said:

    I find this article from Australia fascinating with the difference in mindset from us.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-08/how-to-prepare-for-a-household-covid-19-infection/100742322

    It is all about how to prepare for Covid in your household and how to stop others in it contracting it too. Compare with us where if someone gets it we are now almost entirely relaxed about others in the household getting it too.

    In terms of cases they are closing in on us. In mindset they are 18 months behind.

    "When it comes to symptom management, Professor Bennett says what will be most needed will be different for everyone. Some basics include pain medication, like Panadol or Nurofen, Hydralyte or iceblocks, a thermometer to monitor fevers, and a pulse oximeter to measure oxygen levels."

    How many people have died because no idea what their oxygen levels were. Sky just ran a piece where some unvaccinated lady nearly died because by the time she got to hospital her oxygen sat level was 70.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,164

    Nigelb said:

    Did someone mention Beardsley. Perfect to bring up in this discussion (I think that’s the right (phrase). I ❤️Aubrey’s work. Everything he done really. In so few brushstrokes he doesn’t just so capture sauciness, he created magical worlds to live in. I don’t use G word often, but he was a true genius. Dead at 26 😢

    “Lysistrata was first produced in 411 BC, when the Peloponnesian War had been devastating Greece for 20 years.Lysistrata assembles women from all of Greece, and they agree that they will not have sex until the men make peace.” That’s your plot for the next Carry On film!

    https://victorianweb.org/art/illustration/beardsley/57.html

    We love Carry On PB don’t we?

    Carry On PB would be a great film.
    I think we all know who Sid James would play.
    Now this is a game to take my mind off Swindon losing on tv. Who gets to play @Cyclefree?
    Maggie Smith.
    That's, er, bold casting. Maggie Smith is 87......
    Don’t tell @Cyclefree then...
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,137
    alex_ said:

    .

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    Are we not taxed in Wales?
    Welsh govt has very limited tax raising powers. If Welsh Govt policy leads to increased unemployment then the costs are largely met from Westminster and (if met from taxation) it is from taxes raised in Westminster. Welsh taxpayers will pay along with anyone else, but who gets the blame from increases in Westminster taxes?

    The point is that if the Welsh government implements economically destructive policies (lets ignore Covid and speak generally) then they may bear a political price if people link the policy to the economic disruption, but if the UK Govt steps in (out of choice or necessity) to limit the impact, and raises taxes to do so, then the blame for raising the taxes will likely fall on Westminster.
    So long as my UK taxes are being spent wisely on Michelle Mone's PPE contracts I'm as happy as a sandboy.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952

    Alistair said:
    The US is heading up S*** Street.

    If this Government try to survive with Suella's anti-woke judicial interference or Priti's earlier, hanging and flogging narrative in order to harvest RedWall votes we won't be too far behind.
    Strip immigration out and there is no evidence that the Red Wall is any more socially conservative than the country as a whole.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Charles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    An interesting article that has recently appeared on the Spectator front page.

    "What the Capitol riots and the plot to stop Brexit have in common" (£)
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-the-capitol-riots-and-the-plot-to-stop-brexit-have-in-common

    What laughable bollocks that is.
    The Capitol riots - an attempted coup.
    The 2017 parliament - the democratically elected government

    What is it about Brexit that makes some people think that it uniquely has to bind the hands of future parliaments? Even now there is no legal reason at all why the 2024 parliament couldn't overthow Brexit and rejoin.
    It would be a democratic outrage. Not illegal but outrageous.

    MPs are elected as representatives. However the electorate instructed them they wished to leave the EU. To rejoin without a referendum would be to ignore that instruction
    Don't be so bloody pompous. A referendum cooked up by a smarmy self important fifth rate old Etonian c-ck g-bbler for party political advantage was a constitutional embarrassment no matter what the outcome.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,663
    edited January 2022
    darkage said:

    pigeon said:

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    A lot of truth to this; however, once again, the fact that the devolved governments are administrative heavyweights but fiscal pygmies is entirely the fault of Westminster.
    Surely it is the fault of the politicians that devised the system of devolution, not the current government or 'westminster' . Perhaps this will come to be regarded as the worst legacy of new labour.

    Mr Cameron had a chance to revise it substantially with all his promises, aided by Mr Brown, during the 2014 referendum. He did not.
  • Options
    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    AlistairM said:

    I find this article from Australia fascinating with the difference in mindset from us.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-08/how-to-prepare-for-a-household-covid-19-infection/100742322

    It is all about how to prepare for Covid in your household and how to stop others in it contracting it too. Compare with us where if someone gets it we are now almost entirely relaxed about others in the household getting it too.

    In terms of cases they are closing in on us. In mindset they are 18 months behind.

    In many ways it's quite amusing watching the way that Covid has been reported in NZ/australia over the last 3-6 months. We complain in this country about how we ignore what is going on in the rest of the world, but reading the news in these countries really does genuinely make one feel like transporting yourself back to April 2020.
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244

    AlistairM said:

    I find this article from Australia fascinating with the difference in mindset from us.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-08/how-to-prepare-for-a-household-covid-19-infection/100742322

    It is all about how to prepare for Covid in your household and how to stop others in it contracting it too. Compare with us where if someone gets it we are now almost entirely relaxed about others in the household getting it too.

    In terms of cases they are closing in on us. In mindset they are 18 months behind.

    "When it comes to symptom management, Professor Bennett says what will be most needed will be different for everyone. Some basics include pain medication, like Panadol or Nurofen, Hydralyte or iceblocks, a thermometer to monitor fevers, and a pulse oximeter to measure oxygen levels."

    How many people have died because no idea what their oxygen levels were. Sky just ran a piece where some unvaccinated lady nearly died because by the time she got to hospital her oxygen sat level was 70.
    I feel intuitively like there would have been no better cost to outcome measure that could have been introduced than oximeters posted to every household. And this isn’t a new thought, thanks to Dr Foxy most of us here owned one by March 2020.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,663
    moonshine said:

    AlistairM said:

    I find this article from Australia fascinating with the difference in mindset from us.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-08/how-to-prepare-for-a-household-covid-19-infection/100742322

    It is all about how to prepare for Covid in your household and how to stop others in it contracting it too. Compare with us where if someone gets it we are now almost entirely relaxed about others in the household getting it too.

    In terms of cases they are closing in on us. In mindset they are 18 months behind.

    "When it comes to symptom management, Professor Bennett says what will be most needed will be different for everyone. Some basics include pain medication, like Panadol or Nurofen, Hydralyte or iceblocks, a thermometer to monitor fevers, and a pulse oximeter to measure oxygen levels."

    How many people have died because no idea what their oxygen levels were. Sky just ran a piece where some unvaccinated lady nearly died because by the time she got to hospital her oxygen sat level was 70.
    I feel intuitively like there would have been no better cost to outcome measure that could have been introduced than oximeters posted to every household. And this isn’t a new thought, thanks to Dr Foxy most of us here owned one by March 2020.
    Hear hear. I got a digital thermometer at the same time. Happily neither has had to be used, except once in a blue moon out of curiosity/check the battery.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,970
    edited January 2022
    As someone not familiar with Erdington, would those that are classify it as red wall, big city labour, both or neither?
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,538
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    An interesting article that has recently appeared on the Spectator front page.

    "What the Capitol riots and the plot to stop Brexit have in common" (£)
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-the-capitol-riots-and-the-plot-to-stop-brexit-have-in-common

    Not my cup of tea, but it certainly seems to have made Remainers REALLY angry, almost as if being compared to Trumpites is their worst nightmare, and the author had that in mind

    Hmm
    The author of that article, whoever he is (never heard of him), asks the following question in reference to whether there is any difference between the Capitol riot and the failed attempt to overturn the result of the Brexit referendum (52:48 remember):

    Is there some fundamental difference, beyond the absence of nooses and QAnon conspiracies on this side of the pond?

    The answer to the question is clearly yes, as can be adduced by the reference to nooses and QAnon conspiracies in the author's own question.
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,385
    Charles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    An interesting article that has recently appeared on the Spectator front page.

    "What the Capitol riots and the plot to stop Brexit have in common" (£)
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-the-capitol-riots-and-the-plot-to-stop-brexit-have-in-common

    What laughable bollocks that is.
    The Capitol riots - an attempted coup.
    The 2017 parliament - the democratically elected government

    What is it about Brexit that makes some people think that it uniquely has to bind the hands of future parliaments? Even now there is no legal reason at all why the 2024 parliament couldn't overthow Brexit and rejoin.
    It would be a democratic outrage. Not illegal but outrageous.

    MPs are elected as representatives. However the electorate instructed them they wished to leave the EU. To rejoin without a referendum would be to ignore that instruction
    Outrageous as a concept is very subjective.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited January 2022
    moonshine said:

    AlistairM said:

    I find this article from Australia fascinating with the difference in mindset from us.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-08/how-to-prepare-for-a-household-covid-19-infection/100742322

    It is all about how to prepare for Covid in your household and how to stop others in it contracting it too. Compare with us where if someone gets it we are now almost entirely relaxed about others in the household getting it too.

    In terms of cases they are closing in on us. In mindset they are 18 months behind.

    "When it comes to symptom management, Professor Bennett says what will be most needed will be different for everyone. Some basics include pain medication, like Panadol or Nurofen, Hydralyte or iceblocks, a thermometer to monitor fevers, and a pulse oximeter to measure oxygen levels."

    How many people have died because no idea what their oxygen levels were. Sky just ran a piece where some unvaccinated lady nearly died because by the time she got to hospital her oxygen sat level was 70.
    I feel intuitively like there would have been no better cost to outcome measure that could have been introduced than oximeters posted to every household. And this isn’t a new thought, thanks to Dr Foxy most of us here owned one by March 2020.
    That's what I mean, it was pretty clear early on Silent Hypoxia was a real potential with COVID. Instead we had this weird wait it out until you are absolutely in a total mess approach, and this has continued for 2 years.

    There is now supposed to be a "virtual patient" idea they are deploying, where vulnerable people get a meter and somebody phones them to ask for their stats. The government should be doing just as that article suggests, have a "plan" ready for when you get it.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,970

    Nigelb said:

    Did someone mention Beardsley. Perfect to bring up in this discussion (I think that’s the right (phrase). I ❤️Aubrey’s work. Everything he done really. In so few brushstrokes he doesn’t just so capture sauciness, he created magical worlds to live in. I don’t use G word often, but he was a true genius. Dead at 26 😢

    “Lysistrata was first produced in 411 BC, when the Peloponnesian War had been devastating Greece for 20 years.Lysistrata assembles women from all of Greece, and they agree that they will not have sex until the men make peace.” That’s your plot for the next Carry On film!

    https://victorianweb.org/art/illustration/beardsley/57.html

    We love Carry On PB don’t we?

    Carry On PB would be a great film.
    I think we all know who Sid James would play.
    Now this is a game to take my mind off Swindon losing on tv. Who gets to play @Cyclefree?
    Maggie Smith.
    That's, er, bold casting. Maggie Smith is 87......
    Is that older or younger than @Cyclefree?
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,617
    moonshine said:

    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    I’m probably late to the party here. But did it ever get discussed here what the envelopes to all the living presidents were about at George Bush Senior’s funeral? Not including Carter, apparently he didn’t get one!

    Jeb’s face when he sees his brother’s is a picture.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cHYbphiulKc&feature=youtu.be

    Something that can be read in 2 seconds but that provokes a gut punch reaction. Of course they may have all got something different.

    See we haven't stopped getting sucked into conspiracies then.
    Well it’s not a conspiracy that they were all given envelopes. It’s in the video. Probably they were from Trump, given it’s a serving secret service member that passed it to W. What weird shit would he have written in it! Could also have been an instruction from George Senior I suppose.
    So JUST because they all HAPPENED to receive SIMILAR LOOKING envelopes you've weaved this TIN FOIL FANTASY about it being deliberate!
    Kjh is so out of touch with reality he/she shouts CONSPIRACY at anything that moves. He/she is really quite bonkers.

    It can’t have been anything too top secret. Poor old Joe Biden drops his on the floor without realising he was holding it.
    Lol. It is only you (occasionally Leon, but mainly only you) that gets called out and by everyone not just me and it is me that is out of touch with reality? Talk about out of touch; you are in a league of your own. I mean did you not get that since my post several others have called you out as a nutter or do you not see the fun they are making of you. UFOs, COVID conspiracies, now seeing perfectly innocent stuff at a funerals as some wild stuff. You truly are completely nuts.
    Tee hee. Are you still calling rationale debate about the origin of sarscov2 a conspiracy still? Catch up.

    Are you really so triggered by me posting an amusing video of all the presidents and their wives at a presidents funeral getting given an envelope looking like they’d trodden in a dog doodoo and shooting the shit at what it might have said? Trump does weird stuff, wouldn’t you like to know what he wrote to them all that was so socially awkward? (Assuming it was he).

    What a humourless and incurious oaf you are.
    World of your own. You really don't even get the piss others are taking out of you do you. Suggest you reread the thread, but I suspect you are too tied up in your conspiracy imagination that you don't get it. You even replied to a post making fun of you not realising they were making fun of you. As I said you are completely nuts.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,412
    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    His point about Daszak - the creepy scientist at Wuhan - successfully avoiding all questions (let alone arrest/trial etc) is bang on. The Americans can’t do much about Chinese labs and Chinese boffins, but Daszak is a US citizen, who got US funding, and he lives in the USA

    He could be hauled in front of a Senate committee/courtroom tomorrow. Yet they don’t do it

    Which strongly suggests plenty of important people in the USA are worried as F about their possible guilt, and are quite content for the whole Covid-origin question to be airily waved away as “unknowable”

    Which is even more reason to investigate it

    Did you see this? A suspected Delta lab-leak from a BSL3 laboratory in Taiwan.

    https://fortune.com/2021/12/10/taiwan-investigates-covid-lab-leak-scientist-tests-positive-bite-infected-mouse/

    Far too many people act as though lab-leaks of dangerous viruses can't happen.
    Yes indeed. Which makes the successful suppression of the lab leak hypothesis - as a “racist conspiracy” - for at least a year, all the more remarkable, and outrageous

    They acted like it was an insane concept - a virus leaking from a lab! No way! - and anyone who voiced the possibility was a crackpot Trumpite

    Quintessential gaslighting

    I confess it worked on me, for a while. My initial assumption when the virus first emerged was Oh it must have come from the lab. The coincidence was just too much. This was, let it be noted, the initial assumption of the Chinese scientist who runs the lab - batwoman Shi - she thought “Christ what if it got out of my lab” and she rushed back from Shanghai to “check”. So it was not an absurd theory to HER

    Then the Lancet letter came out and everyone denounced the hypothesis and I thought “well they must know what they’re talking about”

    A couple of months later the doubts began. THAT virus in THAT city with THAT lab? Etc
    The point you make is a good one. No way should that lab leak theory (lol) have been laughed at. At least nobody's laughing now but I guess you'd say that doesn't make it all alright because it should never have been laughed at in the first place. And again you'd be right.

    However I'd like to add a point of my own and it's this. Time management. None of us are able to check out properly the merits of every point of view we come across about something interesting & important in the field of world events. If we tried to do so we'd be doing nothing else and still couldn't cover but a fraction.

    So what do we do? We use shortcuts, one of which is to place weight (or not) on something based on who & where it's coming from. I do this, you do this, we all do this. Ok, some do more digging than others and some are less biased than others (these 2 things not necessarily being correlated, btw, since you can be lazy but not prone to bias or a dervish researcher but only look for what you want) nevertheless it's true in general that people form opinions on something based largely on other people's opinions of it.

    Given the frequent necessity to take this shortcut, it's good news that there's one rule of thumb which is just incredibly efficient in terms of the time it saves and the near zero error rate it leads to for those who follow it. The rule is - Anything that come out of the mouth of an ardent Trumpite MAGA follower is complete & utter horsehit.

    Seems that here - just this once - it might have let us down. But I'll be sticking with it. Life's too short not to.
    The problem - as I am sure you and Leon know - is that the lab leak theory became politicised. If you believed it, you were Trump-ist and so the polite classes didn't want to go near the theory with a barge pole.

    That distaste should have been put to one side and the facts investigated. And, if the horror of being associated with a "Trumpy" view was too much, then at least tell yourself even a broken clock is right twice a day.
    Yes, fair point from you there. Is it a leap year?

    The 'Authorities" shouldn't be letting politics skew how they treat something like that. I was more talking about how 'ordinary' people make their minds up on issues in the general flow of things. Who is saying what is important there, very important.

    Eg, if you switched the people backing Remain and Leave, I'd have voted Leave. No need to spin any wheels on it. Leave.
    Really?

    I was on the leave side, but never had much time for most of the politicians on the leave side, Gisela Stuart and Kate Hoey aside. (Though I also lost a lot of respect for some of the Remainier politicians whose campaign was so utterly brainless and full of holes it my me want to weep. Not that I am saying the leave campaign was a picture of intelligent debate - but there were few politicians I respected to start with there.)
    And pretty much everyone I knew in my middle class urban public sector environment was on the Remain side.
    If you'd swapped all the people around, I'd have been entirely comfortable with Leave (unless - and there is this possibility - I am by nature just a massive contrarian.)
    Leave was very much a head-over-heart for me.
    Blokes almost ALWAYS claim it's 'head over heart' on political stuff.

    But, yes, I'm serious. If the sort of politicians and public figures generally who were supporting Leave and Remain were flipped, I'd have voted Leave.
    Normally, blokes claim its head AND heart. Take HYUFD, for example. In his heart, he's Conservative. And in his head he's Conservative.

    But I don't fully believe you. You're a clever and thoughtful and most importantly self-aware individual, as this discussion shows. So I don't believe you'd simply do what the politicians you like best told you to. I think what you've done is set out one of those 'this sentence is a lie' paradoxes which by stating you disprove. Or something.
    What I mean is on stuff above my paygrade - most things - I take great account of my assessment of the quality of those offering opinions.

    Eg my dad in the original Ref voted 'In' to the Common Market mainly because the likes of Jenkins and Heath were for and the likes of Powell and Benn were against.

    Like father like son on this if on little else.
    Hm. I honestly don't think I do. At least, I try not to. When a new issue arises, I like to think I consider it afresh. It's fun sometimes to end up on the same side as people you have disagreed with on other issues.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,164

    Nigelb said:

    Did someone mention Beardsley. Perfect to bring up in this discussion (I think that’s the right (phrase). I ❤️Aubrey’s work. Everything he done really. In so few brushstrokes he doesn’t just so capture sauciness, he created magical worlds to live in. I don’t use G word often, but he was a true genius. Dead at 26 😢

    “Lysistrata was first produced in 411 BC, when the Peloponnesian War had been devastating Greece for 20 years.Lysistrata assembles women from all of Greece, and they agree that they will not have sex until the men make peace.” That’s your plot for the next Carry On film!

    https://victorianweb.org/art/illustration/beardsley/57.html

    We love Carry On PB don’t we?

    Carry On PB would be a great film.
    I think we all know who Sid James would play.
    Now this is a game to take my mind off Swindon losing on tv. Who gets to play @Cyclefree?
    Maggie Smith.
    That's, er, bold casting. Maggie Smith is 87......
    Is that older or younger than @Cyclefree?
    Off to con home with for even asking!
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Nigelb said:

    Did someone mention Beardsley. Perfect to bring up in this discussion (I think that’s the right (phrase). I ❤️Aubrey’s work. Everything he done really. In so few brushstrokes he doesn’t just so capture sauciness, he created magical worlds to live in. I don’t use G word often, but he was a true genius. Dead at 26 😢

    “Lysistrata was first produced in 411 BC, when the Peloponnesian War had been devastating Greece for 20 years.Lysistrata assembles women from all of Greece, and they agree that they will not have sex until the men make peace.” That’s your plot for the next Carry On film!

    https://victorianweb.org/art/illustration/beardsley/57.html

    We love Carry On PB don’t we?

    Carry On PB would be a great film.
    I think we all know who Sid James would play.
    Now this is a game to take my mind off Swindon losing on tv. Who gets to play @Cyclefree?
    Maggie Smith. OGH would surely be played by Julian Fellowes.
    Malkovitch
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244

    moonshine said:

    AlistairM said:

    I find this article from Australia fascinating with the difference in mindset from us.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-08/how-to-prepare-for-a-household-covid-19-infection/100742322

    It is all about how to prepare for Covid in your household and how to stop others in it contracting it too. Compare with us where if someone gets it we are now almost entirely relaxed about others in the household getting it too.

    In terms of cases they are closing in on us. In mindset they are 18 months behind.

    "When it comes to symptom management, Professor Bennett says what will be most needed will be different for everyone. Some basics include pain medication, like Panadol or Nurofen, Hydralyte or iceblocks, a thermometer to monitor fevers, and a pulse oximeter to measure oxygen levels."

    How many people have died because no idea what their oxygen levels were. Sky just ran a piece where some unvaccinated lady nearly died because by the time she got to hospital her oxygen sat level was 70.
    I feel intuitively like there would have been no better cost to outcome measure that could have been introduced than oximeters posted to every household. And this isn’t a new thought, thanks to Dr Foxy most of us here owned one by March 2020.
    That's what I mean, it was pretty clear early on Silent Hypoxia was a real potential with COVID. Instead we had this weird wait it out until you are absolutely in a total mess approach, and this has continued for 2 years.
    The only thing I can think of was that someone at 111 didn’t want to have to field calls about how to use them.

    It’s the same perplexing thing as the refusal to recommend FFP3 masks to medical professionals and the vulnerable. Chris Witty last week “they’re not much fun to wear”. Well neither is a body bag and for some people in the highly vulnerable category, they might have made all the difference.

    Instead we still get the inanity about washing your hands.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847
    pigeon said:

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    A lot of truth to this; however, once again, the fact that the devolved governments are administrative heavyweights but fiscal pygmies is entirely the fault of Westminster.
    Is Scotland really a fiscal pygmy?
    I believe the Scottish government collects 40% of total tax raised in that nation.
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,385
    moonshine said:

    AlistairM said:

    I find this article from Australia fascinating with the difference in mindset from us.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-08/how-to-prepare-for-a-household-covid-19-infection/100742322

    It is all about how to prepare for Covid in your household and how to stop others in it contracting it too. Compare with us where if someone gets it we are now almost entirely relaxed about others in the household getting it too.

    In terms of cases they are closing in on us. In mindset they are 18 months behind.

    "When it comes to symptom management, Professor Bennett says what will be most needed will be different for everyone. Some basics include pain medication, like Panadol or Nurofen, Hydralyte or iceblocks, a thermometer to monitor fevers, and a pulse oximeter to measure oxygen levels."

    How many people have died because no idea what their oxygen levels were. Sky just ran a piece where some unvaccinated lady nearly died because by the time she got to hospital her oxygen sat level was 70.
    I feel intuitively like there would have been no better cost to outcome measure that could have been introduced than oximeters posted to every household. And this isn’t a new thought, thanks to Dr Foxy most of us here owned one by March 2020.
    Agreed, well done foxy.
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    alex_ said:

    Carnyx said:

    pigeon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Applicant said:

    England is a “global outlier” in the fight against the Omicron wave of coronavirus because of its anti-restrictions stance, Wales’s First Minister Mark Drakeford has said.

    He isn't very bright is he....if you are going to make some shit up, you as well make it hard to check.

    Outlier in a purely good way. Drakeford should be taking notes.
    The way that the four nations have had different sets of Covid - for purely internal political point-scoring - should have been squashed at the very outset.
    How, though? There's too much benefit to the Scottish and Welsh administrations to pander to Anglophobic sentiment.

    Even with a symmetric devolution settlement, a federal UK government would have struggled to get consistency between the four nations' governments.
    Also. Is it really that important?
    USA, Canada, Germany have had devolved COVID responses.
    Not sure why it is so viscerally vital the UK has to have a single approach.
    It isn't, though OTOH nor is the UK exactly alone in seeing spats between the centre and the component parts over Covid policy.
    Carnyx said:

    Applicant said:

    England is a “global outlier” in the fight against the Omicron wave of coronavirus because of its anti-restrictions stance, Wales’s First Minister Mark Drakeford has said.

    He isn't very bright is he....if you are going to make some shit up, you as well make it hard to check.

    Outlier in a purely good way. Drakeford should be taking notes.
    The way that the four nations have had different sets of Covid - for purely internal political point-scoring - should have been squashed at the very outset.
    How, though? There's too much benefit to the Scottish and Welsh administrations to pander to Anglophobic sentiment.

    Even with a symmetric devolution settlement, a federal UK government would have struggled to get consistency between the four nations' governments.
    Not Anglophobic: just feeling they can do it better, and/or more suited to their own areas. It's a common mistake to confuse racism with not wanting to toe the London line.
    True.

    OTOH, It'd be interesting to know how often the SNP administration, Welsh Labour or the English Tories have conceded that something was done better elsewhere than it was under their own aegis.

    One of the advantages of devolution was, we were told, that the component parts of the UK could act as a laboratory, in which various things were done differently and best practice in one nation could inform better policy in the others. Does this happen? Ever?
    Prescriptions. The Scots realised that the admin costs of means testing accounted for much of the difference between means testing and free prescriptions, and the rest was pretty much covered once one added also the costs of not giving people the medicine they needed but couldn't afford as they were over the border [it happens all right as I know from English friends with chronic conditions] ... followed by Wales.


    Is the real issue/purpose behind prescription charges actually the cost of prescriptions, or the cost of drugs? So focussing on the direct cost saving of removing the administration of means testing is slightly missing the point?



    I thought the real purpose of prescription charges was to reduce moral hazard, not contribute revenue.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited January 2022
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    AlistairM said:

    I find this article from Australia fascinating with the difference in mindset from us.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-08/how-to-prepare-for-a-household-covid-19-infection/100742322

    It is all about how to prepare for Covid in your household and how to stop others in it contracting it too. Compare with us where if someone gets it we are now almost entirely relaxed about others in the household getting it too.

    In terms of cases they are closing in on us. In mindset they are 18 months behind.

    "When it comes to symptom management, Professor Bennett says what will be most needed will be different for everyone. Some basics include pain medication, like Panadol or Nurofen, Hydralyte or iceblocks, a thermometer to monitor fevers, and a pulse oximeter to measure oxygen levels."

    How many people have died because no idea what their oxygen levels were. Sky just ran a piece where some unvaccinated lady nearly died because by the time she got to hospital her oxygen sat level was 70.
    I feel intuitively like there would have been no better cost to outcome measure that could have been introduced than oximeters posted to every household. And this isn’t a new thought, thanks to Dr Foxy most of us here owned one by March 2020.
    That's what I mean, it was pretty clear early on Silent Hypoxia was a real potential with COVID. Instead we had this weird wait it out until you are absolutely in a total mess approach, and this has continued for 2 years.
    The only thing I can think of was that someone at 111 didn’t want to have to field calls about how to use them.

    It’s the same perplexing thing as the refusal to recommend FFP3 masks to medical professionals and the vulnerable. Chris Witty last week “they’re not much fun to wear”. Well neither is a body bag and for some people in the highly vulnerable category, they might have made all the difference.

    Instead we still get the inanity about washing your hands.
    Best thing I purchased early on was a FFP3 respirator mask. Really wasn't very expensive either and just have to buy new filters for it.

    Surely not rocket science to do a video for how to use a oximeter and spam it out via tv, social media etc.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,502

    Nigelb said:

    Did someone mention Beardsley. Perfect to bring up in this discussion (I think that’s the right (phrase). I ❤️Aubrey’s work. Everything he done really. In so few brushstrokes he doesn’t just so capture sauciness, he created magical worlds to live in. I don’t use G word often, but he was a true genius. Dead at 26 😢

    “Lysistrata was first produced in 411 BC, when the Peloponnesian War had been devastating Greece for 20 years.Lysistrata assembles women from all of Greece, and they agree that they will not have sex until the men make peace.” That’s your plot for the next Carry On film!

    https://victorianweb.org/art/illustration/beardsley/57.html

    We love Carry On PB don’t we?

    Carry On PB would be a great film.
    I think we all know who Sid James would play.
    Now this is a game to take my mind off Swindon losing on tv. Who gets to play @Cyclefree?
    Maggie Smith. OGH would surely be played by Julian Fellowes.
    Not sure you’re quite capturing the Carry On vibe there.
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    I’m probably late to the party here. But did it ever get discussed here what the envelopes to all the living presidents were about at George Bush Senior’s funeral? Not including Carter, apparently he didn’t get one!

    Jeb’s face when he sees his brother’s is a picture.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cHYbphiulKc&feature=youtu.be

    Something that can be read in 2 seconds but that provokes a gut punch reaction. Of course they may have all got something different.

    See we haven't stopped getting sucked into conspiracies then.
    Well it’s not a conspiracy that they were all given envelopes. It’s in the video. Probably they were from Trump, given it’s a serving secret service member that passed it to W. What weird shit would he have written in it! Could also have been an instruction from George Senior I suppose.
    So JUST because they all HAPPENED to receive SIMILAR LOOKING envelopes you've weaved this TIN FOIL FANTASY about it being deliberate!
    Kjh is so out of touch with reality he/she shouts CONSPIRACY at anything that moves. He/she is really quite bonkers.

    It can’t have been anything too top secret. Poor old Joe Biden drops his on the floor without realising he was holding it.
    Lol. It is only you (occasionally Leon, but mainly only you) that gets called out and by everyone not just me and it is me that is out of touch with reality? Talk about out of touch; you are in a league of your own. I mean did you not get that since my post several others have called you out as a nutter or do you not see the fun they are making of you. UFOs, COVID conspiracies, now seeing perfectly innocent stuff at a funerals as some wild stuff. You truly are completely nuts.
    Tee hee. Are you still calling rationale debate about the origin of sarscov2 a conspiracy still? Catch up.

    Are you really so triggered by me posting an amusing video of all the presidents and their wives at a presidents funeral getting given an envelope looking like they’d trodden in a dog doodoo and shooting the shit at what it might have said? Trump does weird stuff, wouldn’t you like to know what he wrote to them all that was so socially awkward? (Assuming it was he).

    What a humourless and incurious oaf you are.
    World of your own. You really don't even get the piss others are taking out of you do you. Suggest you reread the thread, but I suspect you are too tied up in your conspiracy imagination that you don't get it. You even replied to a post making fun of you not realising they were making fun of you. As I said you are completely nuts.
    I shall follow the sterling example set by Leon last night and politely disengage from you, as you are not adding anything to my understanding of the world nor providing anything in the way of entertainment.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited January 2022

    I think it pretty irresponsible for Sky News to make the doctor there headline story. I know the media always love to make a politician look awkward after speaking to a member of the public, but we don't need any highlighting of anti-vaxxer talk and having a doctor do it just gives even more ammo for the antivaxxers.

    It pushes the falsehood if you have ever had COVID no need to get vaccinated. When actually, had COVID, get jabbed, and you are f##king super human levels of protection.

    I agree. Media outlets should kill the darlings a lot more to be responsible not just hungry for attention.

    TimT explained to us out the science that knocks out the anaesthetist. Charles pointed out not good for politicians to engage in front of camera. But Sky could have done the nation the service of asking afterwards why he won’t get vaccinated? We would like to know why wouldn’t we? Is it extreme religion? Reptile invasion. Sky could have let him undermine himself in his own words rather than give anti vaxx nutters succour I agree.
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    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,132
    darkage said:

    pigeon said:

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    A lot of truth to this; however, once again, the fact that the devolved governments are administrative heavyweights but fiscal pygmies is entirely the fault of Westminster.
    Surely it is the fault of the politicians that devised the system of devolution, not the current government or 'westminster' . Perhaps this will come to be regarded as the worst legacy of new labour.
    The constitution is reserved: the Government of the day could reform devolution to give the devolved administrations control of a significant chunk of the tax base and substantial (though not limitless) borrowing powers.

    This would enable the devolved governments to raise (or even lower - no laughing at the back please) domestic public spending per capita relative to England, and to adjust their own taxation and borrowing policies accordingly to pay for it.

    Funding by bloc grant (as if Holyrood, for example, were just an outsized county council) is a very bad idea. There should still be transfer payments, to adjust for the relative economic strength or weakness of the four nations, but really the bulk of revenue spent by the devolved governments should also be raised by them from within their own borders.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,024
    IshmaelZ said:

    Charles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    An interesting article that has recently appeared on the Spectator front page.

    "What the Capitol riots and the plot to stop Brexit have in common" (£)
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-the-capitol-riots-and-the-plot-to-stop-brexit-have-in-common

    What laughable bollocks that is.
    The Capitol riots - an attempted coup.
    The 2017 parliament - the democratically elected government

    What is it about Brexit that makes some people think that it uniquely has to bind the hands of future parliaments? Even now there is no legal reason at all why the 2024 parliament couldn't overthow Brexit and rejoin.
    It would be a democratic outrage. Not illegal but outrageous.

    MPs are elected as representatives. However the electorate instructed them they wished to leave the EU. To rejoin without a referendum would be to ignore that instruction
    Don't be so bloody pompous. A referendum cooked up by a smarmy self important fifth rate old Etonian c-ck g-bbler for party political advantage was a constitutional embarrassment no matter what the outcome.
    I agree

    But, literally no one went into that voting booth in 2016 thinking "oh, this is just an advisory referendum, the government will listen to me or maybe not, up to them, but it's good to take part in this minor test of opinion". Indeed the idea is insane. "Advisory" my fucking arse

    If Remain had won, would ANY of them have said, Wait it was "advisory" we can still Leave?

    FFS

    We all knew "This Is It". The government *will* enact what we choose. A leaflet was sent to every single UK household telling us exactly this. The government simply had no expectation of defeat

    The Remainer spin on this shows that they know their shenanigans were utter bollocks, anti democratic shite on a par with Trumpite crap, and they are now eager to sneak away from What They Did, and they get angry to a telling extent when they are reminded



  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,137

    .

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    Are we not taxed in Wales?
    I seem to remember Sunak announcing an increase in national insurance not Drakeford.
    A rise that I will also be paying.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189

    I think it pretty irresponsible for Sky News to make the doctor there headline story. I know the media always love to make a politician look awkward after speaking to a member of the public, but we don't need any highlighting of anti-vaxxer talk and having a doctor do it just gives even more ammo for the antivaxxers.

    It pushes the falsehood if you have ever had COVID no need to get vaccinated. When actually, had COVID, get jabbed, and you are f##king super human levels of protection.

    I agree. Media outlets should kill the darlings a lot more to be responsible not just hungry for attention.

    TimT explained to us out the science that knocks out the anaesthetist. Charles pointed out not good for politicians to engage in front of camera. But Sky could have done the nation the service of asking afterwards why he won’t get vaccinated? We would like to know why wouldn’t we? Is it extreme religion? Reptile invasion. Sky could have let him undermine himself in his own words rather than give anti vaxx nutters succour I agree.
    I saw the doctor on London news tonight and I thought he came across as a complete knob.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,970
    Looking at Travelling Tabby, English infection rates are currently lower than those of the other UK nations. Proof that additional restrictions are a waste of time? https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,100

    Nigelb said:

    Did someone mention Beardsley. Perfect to bring up in this discussion (I think that’s the right (phrase). I ❤️Aubrey’s work. Everything he done really. In so few brushstrokes he doesn’t just so capture sauciness, he created magical worlds to live in. I don’t use G word often, but he was a true genius. Dead at 26 😢

    “Lysistrata was first produced in 411 BC, when the Peloponnesian War had been devastating Greece for 20 years.Lysistrata assembles women from all of Greece, and they agree that they will not have sex until the men make peace.” That’s your plot for the next Carry On film!

    https://victorianweb.org/art/illustration/beardsley/57.html

    We love Carry On PB don’t we?

    Carry On PB would be a great film.
    I think we all know who Sid James would play.
    Now this is a game to take my mind off Swindon losing on tv. Who gets to play @Cyclefree?
    Maggie Smith.
    That's, er, bold casting. Maggie Smith is 87......
    Don’t tell @Cyclefree then...
    It was more a concern about the production costs of insuring Dame Maggie.....
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,385
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Charles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    An interesting article that has recently appeared on the Spectator front page.

    "What the Capitol riots and the plot to stop Brexit have in common" (£)
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-the-capitol-riots-and-the-plot-to-stop-brexit-have-in-common

    What laughable bollocks that is.
    The Capitol riots - an attempted coup.
    The 2017 parliament - the democratically elected government

    What is it about Brexit that makes some people think that it uniquely has to bind the hands of future parliaments? Even now there is no legal reason at all why the 2024 parliament couldn't overthow Brexit and rejoin.
    It would be a democratic outrage. Not illegal but outrageous.

    MPs are elected as representatives. However the electorate instructed them they wished to leave the EU. To rejoin without a referendum would be to ignore that instruction
    Don't be so bloody pompous. A referendum cooked up by a smarmy self important fifth rate old Etonian c-ck g-bbler for party political advantage was a constitutional embarrassment no matter what the outcome.
    I agree

    But, literally no one went into that voting booth in 2016 thinking "oh, this is just an advisory referendum, the government will listen to me or maybe not, up to them, but it's good to take part in this minor test of opinion". Indeed the idea is insane. "Advisory" my fucking arse

    If Remain had won, would ANY of them have said, Wait it was "advisory" we can still Leave?

    FFS

    We all knew "This Is It". The government *will* enact what we choose. A leaflet was sent to every single UK household telling us exactly this. The government simply had no expectation of defeat

    The Remainer spin on this shows that they know their shenanigans were utter bollocks, anti democratic shite on a par with Trumpite crap, and they are now eager to sneak away from What They Did, and they get angry to a telling extent when they are reminded



    Are you p****d, again?
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did someone mention Beardsley. Perfect to bring up in this discussion (I think that’s the right (phrase). I ❤️Aubrey’s work. Everything he done really. In so few brushstrokes he doesn’t just so capture sauciness, he created magical worlds to live in. I don’t use G word often, but he was a true genius. Dead at 26 😢

    “Lysistrata was first produced in 411 BC, when the Peloponnesian War had been devastating Greece for 20 years.Lysistrata assembles women from all of Greece, and they agree that they will not have sex until the men make peace.” That’s your plot for the next Carry On film!

    https://victorianweb.org/art/illustration/beardsley/57.html

    We love Carry On PB don’t we?

    Carry On PB would be a great film.
    I think we all know who Sid James would play.
    Now this is a game to take my mind off Swindon losing on tv. Who gets to play @Cyclefree?
    Maggie Smith. OGH would surely be played by Julian Fellowes.
    Not sure you’re quite capturing the Carry On vibe there.
    Maggie Smith and Williams I think were good friends, and she used to say “you aren’t doing another one of those ruddy things!” 🙂

    How did Williams reply do we think?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,100

    Looking at Travelling Tabby, English infection rates are currently lower than those of the other UK nations. Proof that additional restrictions are a waste of time? https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

    Or proof that the English really don't give a shit about cancelling a party. Whereas.....
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited January 2022

    Nigelb said:

    Did someone mention Beardsley. Perfect to bring up in this discussion (I think that’s the right (phrase). I ❤️Aubrey’s work. Everything he done really. In so few brushstrokes he doesn’t just so capture sauciness, he created magical worlds to live in. I don’t use G word often, but he was a true genius. Dead at 26 😢

    “Lysistrata was first produced in 411 BC, when the Peloponnesian War had been devastating Greece for 20 years.Lysistrata assembles women from all of Greece, and they agree that they will not have sex until the men make peace.” That’s your plot for the next Carry On film!

    https://victorianweb.org/art/illustration/beardsley/57.html

    We love Carry On PB don’t we?

    Carry On PB would be a great film.
    I think we all know who Sid James would play.
    Now this is a game to take my mind off Swindon losing on tv. Who gets to play @Cyclefree?
    Maggie Smith.
    That's, er, bold casting. Maggie Smith is 87......
    Don’t tell @Cyclefree then...
    It was more a concern about the production costs of insuring Dame Maggie.....
    As opposed to getting Cyclefree to ‘smoke’? 😆

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36m2jLl0Me4
  • Options
    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    .

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    Are we not taxed in Wales?
    I seem to remember Sunak announcing an increase in national insurance not Drakeford.
    A rise that I will also be paying.
    Missing the point. The issue in this case is not whether English taxpayers are paying for Welsh policy. It is that UK (and that includes Welsh) taxpayers are (potentially) paying for Welsh policy. And when UK taxes rise, it is the UK Govt that will be held responsible for it. By English and Welsh voters alike. So the potential political cost for Drakeford of implementing restrictions is lower than it might be for Johnson. Not non-existent, but slightly lower. Which could tip the balance when restrictions to "protect public health" are apparently popular. Which politician wouldn't pursue short term popularity if they don't bear the political price of the longer term consequences (higher taxation)?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,663
    edited January 2022

    .

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    Are we not taxed in Wales?
    I seem to remember Sunak announcing an increase in national insurance not Drakeford.
    A rise that I will also be paying.
    That's right. PBTories often have this curious notion that only the non-devolved nation pays taxes of any kind. It often spills over into their explicit language. Often at the same time as others are berating the Scottish Gmt for its high tax policy.

    My favourite was the Conservative Gmt giving more money to senior ranks in the armed forces to compensate those unfortunate enough to be stationed in Scotland. But did they give more money to the lower ranks unfortunate enough to be stationed in England? No, they did not. Which says a great deal about the centre/other mentality discussed here the other day.
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    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,796

    As someone not familiar with Erdington, would those that are classify it as red wall, big city labour, both or neither?

    Others know Birmingham better than I do but I would say that it has elements of both red wall (ie working class suburbia with cheapish housing) and big city labour, being just a few miles away from Birmingham City centre.
  • Options

    As someone not familiar with Erdington, would those that are classify it as red wall, big city labour, both or neither?

    Its a safe Labour seat which the Conservatives have overachieved in at local elections because of an active local party - one of their councillors now being MP for Birmingham Northfield.

    Its not inner city so there's enough Conservative support to give them a solid vote without threatening to win.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited January 2022
    I've been tardy on my SA updates

    Week 52 final figures
    Admissions down 16%
    Deaths up 20%

    Week 1 projection
    Admissions down 0.02% (not a typo - projected to be flat)
    Deaths up 14%

    Admissions projection figure is a bit surprising to be honest - Gauteng seems to be levelling off this week.
    Ventilation and Oxygenation is no change from the last couple of weeks.
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,132

    Looking at Travelling Tabby, English infection rates are currently lower than those of the other UK nations. Proof that additional restrictions are a waste of time? https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

    The case is certainly less than convincing. See also the similar trajectory of the Omicron outbreak in the UK (fewer restrictions) versus France (more restrictions,) and what increasingly appears to be the failure of the Dutch hard lockdown.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    The anti vaccine mandate story would have been more problematic for the government if a vaccinated member of staff raised concerns about staffing numbers. Instead, the anti-vaxxer doctor just looked like a selfish idiot.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    Looking at Travelling Tabby, English infection rates are currently lower than those of the other UK nations. Proof that additional restrictions are a waste of time? https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

    But just think how much lower we could get them if we banned parkrun.
  • Options

    I remember when Warwick university was respected:

    https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios

    Predicted English hospitalisations 8,691
    Actual English hospitalisations 2,139

    Very close, given all the uncertainties. Kudos to Warwick.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,914
    Charles said:

    TimT said:

    "The science isn't strong enough".

    Watch the moment an unvaccinated hospital consultant challenges Health Secretary Sajid Javid over the government's policy of compulsory COVID jabs for NHS staff.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1479532922952732672?s=20

    Rather worried about this consultants lack of knowledge of the science....if he sticks with this stance, I think he will be finding the only place willing to employ him will be in the developing world.

    Rather worried that anyone faced with such nonsense doesn't automatically ask: "Why are you focused solely on antibodies and infections? Why don't you consider the science of T-cells and reduced morbidity? Do you doubt the science on that? If so, on what basis and where is the peer-reviewed evidence to back up your skepticism? If not, why don't you take a remedial course in immunology? You're a physician, FFS!!!"
    Because you are probably faced with a fanatic and it’s bad for politicians to get get into arguments on TV
    Nah, didn't do Prescott any harm
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,538
    alex_ said:

    .

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    Are we not taxed in Wales?
    I seem to remember Sunak announcing an increase in national insurance not Drakeford.
    A rise that I will also be paying.
    Missing the point. The issue in this case is not whether English taxpayers are paying for Welsh policy. It is that UK (and that includes Welsh) taxpayers are (potentially) paying for Welsh policy. And when UK taxes rise, it is the UK Govt that will be held responsible for it. By English and Welsh voters alike. So the potential political cost for Drakeford of implementing restrictions is lower than it might be for Johnson. Not non-existent, but slightly lower. Which could tip the balance when restrictions to "protect public health" are apparently popular. Which politician wouldn't pursue short term popularity if they don't bear the political price of the longer term consequences (higher taxation)?
    But that's missing my original point, isn't it? Restrictions aren't popular, so Drakeford isn't pursuing short-term popularity - if he was, he'd lift all the restrictions, wouldn't he? You may not agree with him, and nor may I, but he's been consistent.

    Could it be possible that Drakeford is doing what he thinks is right, regardless of popularity? It seems to me that it's the English PM who is more obsessed with popularity. I think the tax issue is a bit of a red herring.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    Charles said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did someone mention Beardsley. Perfect to bring up in this discussion (I think that’s the right (phrase). I ❤️Aubrey’s work. Everything he done really. In so few brushstrokes he doesn’t just so capture sauciness, he created magical worlds to live in. I don’t use G word often, but he was a true genius. Dead at 26 😢

    “Lysistrata was first produced in 411 BC, when the Peloponnesian War had been devastating Greece for 20 years.Lysistrata assembles women from all of Greece, and they agree that they will not have sex until the men make peace.” That’s your plot for the next Carry On film!

    https://victorianweb.org/art/illustration/beardsley/57.html

    We love Carry On PB don’t we?

    Carry On PB would be a great film.
    I think we all know who Sid James would play.
    Now this is a game to take my mind off Swindon losing on tv. Who gets to play @Cyclefree?
    Maggie Smith. OGH would surely be played by Julian Fellowes.
    Malkovitch
    Charles Hawtry
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,024

    I remember when Warwick university was respected:

    https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios

    Predicted English hospitalisations 8,691
    Actual English hospitalisations 2,139

    Very close, given all the uncertainties. Kudos to Warwick.
    This incites the obvious question, has any - ANY - respected "model" ever modelled on the downside. ie, predicted fewer cases, hospitalisations and deaths than actually occurred?

    If none have done so, then this strongly suggests they all need putting-into-the-toilet
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,617
    moonshine said:

    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    I’m probably late to the party here. But did it ever get discussed here what the envelopes to all the living presidents were about at George Bush Senior’s funeral? Not including Carter, apparently he didn’t get one!

    Jeb’s face when he sees his brother’s is a picture.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cHYbphiulKc&feature=youtu.be

    Something that can be read in 2 seconds but that provokes a gut punch reaction. Of course they may have all got something different.

    See we haven't stopped getting sucked into conspiracies then.
    Well it’s not a conspiracy that they were all given envelopes. It’s in the video. Probably they were from Trump, given it’s a serving secret service member that passed it to W. What weird shit would he have written in it! Could also have been an instruction from George Senior I suppose.
    So JUST because they all HAPPENED to receive SIMILAR LOOKING envelopes you've weaved this TIN FOIL FANTASY about it being deliberate!
    Kjh is so out of touch with reality he/she shouts CONSPIRACY at anything that moves. He/she is really quite bonkers.

    It can’t have been anything too top secret. Poor old Joe Biden drops his on the floor without realising he was holding it.
    Lol. It is only you (occasionally Leon, but mainly only you) that gets called out and by everyone not just me and it is me that is out of touch with reality? Talk about out of touch; you are in a league of your own. I mean did you not get that since my post several others have called you out as a nutter or do you not see the fun they are making of you. UFOs, COVID conspiracies, now seeing perfectly innocent stuff at a funerals as some wild stuff. You truly are completely nuts.
    Tee hee. Are you still calling rationale debate about the origin of sarscov2 a conspiracy still? Catch up.

    Are you really so triggered by me posting an amusing video of all the presidents and their wives at a presidents funeral getting given an envelope looking like they’d trodden in a dog doodoo and shooting the shit at what it might have said? Trump does weird stuff, wouldn’t you like to know what he wrote to them all that was so socially awkward? (Assuming it was he).

    What a humourless and incurious oaf you are.
    World of your own. You really don't even get the piss others are taking out of you do you. Suggest you reread the thread, but I suspect you are too tied up in your conspiracy imagination that you don't get it. You even replied to a post making fun of you not realising they were making fun of you. As I said you are completely nuts.
    I shall follow the sterling example set by Leon last night and politely disengage from you, as you are not adding anything to my understanding of the world nor providing anything in the way of entertainment.
    Funny that because Leon and I have been conversing quite well since last night over numerous topics all day (you seem to have missed that) and have done so for years beforehand under his previous nom de plums for over a decade. Leon as he will admit himself has his quirks that we all appreciate and make fun of.

    I appreciate I will add nothing to your world because you inhabit a world that nobody else does. It is people like you that allow people like Trump to gain power. I could have just made fun of you like so many others on here do, but you clearly don't get their posts and in the long run people like you are potential dangerous.

    You do know that people here are laughing at you don't you?
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    tlg86 said:

    The anti vaccine mandate story would have been more problematic for the government if a vaccinated member of staff raised concerns about staffing numbers. Instead, the anti-vaxxer doctor just looked like a selfish idiot.

    I get a bit confused when people are bandying about reinfection stats with omicron as being 15% or whatever the latest number is. Presumably that means reinfection with sarscov2 rather than reinfection with omicron?

    Presumably given the waning effect of antibodies, we can expect in time the reinfection with omicron rate to be quite high. It will be an interesting day when the govt has to pivot and say, no more routine testing and hence no mandatory isolation for positive cases. I wonder if they’ll be brave enough to do that this year or will want another winter under their belt.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,970

    alex_ said:

    .

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    Are we not taxed in Wales?
    I seem to remember Sunak announcing an increase in national insurance not Drakeford.
    A rise that I will also be paying.
    Missing the point. The issue in this case is not whether English taxpayers are paying for Welsh policy. It is that UK (and that includes Welsh) taxpayers are (potentially) paying for Welsh policy. And when UK taxes rise, it is the UK Govt that will be held responsible for it. By English and Welsh voters alike. So the potential political cost for Drakeford of implementing restrictions is lower than it might be for Johnson. Not non-existent, but slightly lower. Which could tip the balance when restrictions to "protect public health" are apparently popular. Which politician wouldn't pursue short term popularity if they don't bear the political price of the longer term consequences (higher taxation)?
    But that's missing my original point, isn't it? Restrictions aren't popular, so Drakeford isn't pursuing short-term popularity - if he was, he'd lift all the restrictions, wouldn't he? You may not agree with him, and nor may I, but he's been consistent.

    Could it be possible that Drakeford is doing what he thinks is right, regardless of popularity? It seems to me that it's the English PM who is more obsessed with popularity. I think the tax issue is a bit of a red herring.
    If voters are generally in favour of restrictions, maybe he is pursuing popularity.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did someone mention Beardsley. Perfect to bring up in this discussion (I think that’s the right (phrase). I ❤️Aubrey’s work. Everything he done really. In so few brushstrokes he doesn’t just so capture sauciness, he created magical worlds to live in. I don’t use G word often, but he was a true genius. Dead at 26 😢

    “Lysistrata was first produced in 411 BC, when the Peloponnesian War had been devastating Greece for 20 years.Lysistrata assembles women from all of Greece, and they agree that they will not have sex until the men make peace.” That’s your plot for the next Carry On film!

    https://victorianweb.org/art/illustration/beardsley/57.html

    We love Carry On PB don’t we?

    Carry On PB would be a great film.
    I think we all know who Sid James would play.
    Now this is a game to take my mind off Swindon losing on tv. Who gets to play @Cyclefree?
    Maggie Smith. OGH would surely be played by Julian Fellowes.
    Not sure you’re quite capturing the Carry On vibe there.
    Maggie Smith and Williams I think were good friends, and she used to say “you aren’t doing another one of those ruddy things!” 🙂

    How did Williams reply do we think?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FOv-XCWUck
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,914

    alex_ said:

    .

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    Are we not taxed in Wales?
    I seem to remember Sunak announcing an increase in national insurance not Drakeford.
    A rise that I will also be paying.
    Missing the point. The issue in this case is not whether English taxpayers are paying for Welsh policy. It is that UK (and that includes Welsh) taxpayers are (potentially) paying for Welsh policy. And when UK taxes rise, it is the UK Govt that will be held responsible for it. By English and Welsh voters alike. So the potential political cost for Drakeford of implementing restrictions is lower than it might be for Johnson. Not non-existent, but slightly lower. Which could tip the balance when restrictions to "protect public health" are apparently popular. Which politician wouldn't pursue short term popularity if they don't bear the political price of the longer term consequences (higher taxation)?
    But that's missing my original point, isn't it? Restrictions aren't popular, so Drakeford isn't pursuing short-term popularity - if he was, he'd lift all the restrictions, wouldn't he? You may not agree with him, and nor may I, but he's been consistent.

    Could it be possible that Drakeford is doing what he thinks is right, regardless of popularity? It seems to me that it's the English PM who is more obsessed with popularity. I think the tax issue is a bit of a red herring.
    Doesn't polling show otherwise ?
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,132

    pigeon said:

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    A lot of truth to this; however, once again, the fact that the devolved governments are administrative heavyweights but fiscal pygmies is entirely the fault of Westminster.
    Is Scotland really a fiscal pygmy?
    I believe the Scottish government collects 40% of total tax raised in that nation.
    That's interesting - Scottish Parliamentary control over income tax policy is still only partial, but greater than I had realised.

    According to the 2022-23 Scottish budget, about one-third of devolved revenue would now appear to be under Scottish control - though, given that the vast majority of this is income tax receipts, the options of the devolved government are still limited. It has limited or no latitude to, for example, cut taxes on incomes and compensate for this by raising them on wealth, property or business profits (or vice versa.)
  • Options

    Did someone mention Beardsley. Perfect to bring up in this discussion (I think that’s the right (phrase). I ❤️Aubrey’s work. Everything he done really. In so few brushstrokes he doesn’t just so capture sauciness, he created magical worlds to live in. I don’t use G word often, but he was a true genius. Dead at 26 😢

    “Lysistrata was first produced in 411 BC, when the Peloponnesian War had been devastating Greece for 20 years.Lysistrata assembles women from all of Greece, and they agree that they will not have sex until the men make peace.” That’s your plot for the next Carry On film!

    https://victorianweb.org/art/illustration/beardsley/57.html

    We love Carry On PB don’t we?

    Carry On PB would be a great film.
    Matron! Take him away!
    (Re: "Carry on PB") Correction - "Monitor! Take him way!"
    Correction - "Moderator! Take him away!"
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,538
    Leon said:

    I remember when Warwick university was respected:

    https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios

    Predicted English hospitalisations 8,691
    Actual English hospitalisations 2,139

    Very close, given all the uncertainties. Kudos to Warwick.
    This incites the obvious question, has any - ANY - respected "model" ever modelled on the downside. ie, predicted fewer cases, hospitalisations and deaths than actually occurred?

    If none have done so, then this strongly suggests they all need putting-into-the-toilet
    Not sure about respected 'models', but lots of respected pundits on here were telling us throughout the summer and autumn that herd immunity had been reached and it was all over bar the shouting.
  • Options

    .

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    Are we not taxed in Wales?
    I seem to remember Sunak announcing an increase in national insurance not Drakeford.
    A rise that I will also be paying.
    So ?

    When people look for someone to blame when taxes rise its the person who announced it who gets the blame not the person spending the money the tax rise raises.

    Now you can blame Drakeford if you want.

    But I doubt Welsh Labour will be boasting that national insurance is increasing because Drakeford wanted to put 'public health first' with extra restrictions.
  • Options
    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    alex_ said:

    .

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    Are we not taxed in Wales?
    I seem to remember Sunak announcing an increase in national insurance not Drakeford.
    A rise that I will also be paying.
    Missing the point. The issue in this case is not whether English taxpayers are paying for Welsh policy. It is that UK (and that includes Welsh) taxpayers are (potentially) paying for Welsh policy. And when UK taxes rise, it is the UK Govt that will be held responsible for it. By English and Welsh voters alike. So the potential political cost for Drakeford of implementing restrictions is lower than it might be for Johnson. Not non-existent, but slightly lower. Which could tip the balance when restrictions to "protect public health" are apparently popular. Which politician wouldn't pursue short term popularity if they don't bear the political price of the longer term consequences (higher taxation)?
    But that's missing my original point, isn't it? Restrictions aren't popular, so Drakeford isn't pursuing short-term popularity - if he was, he'd lift all the restrictions, wouldn't he? You may not agree with him, and nor may I, but he's been consistent.

    Could it be possible that Drakeford is doing what he thinks is right, regardless of popularity? It seems to me that it's the English PM who is more obsessed with popularity. I think the tax issue is a bit of a red herring.
    Polling consistently shows depressingly high support for restrictions (particularly on restrictions that affect other people).
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,617
    IshmaelZ said:

    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    I’m probably late to the party here. But did it ever get discussed here what the envelopes to all the living presidents were about at George Bush Senior’s funeral? Not including Carter, apparently he didn’t get one!

    Jeb’s face when he sees his brother’s is a picture.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cHYbphiulKc&feature=youtu.be

    Something that can be read in 2 seconds but that provokes a gut punch reaction. Of course they may have all got something different.

    See we haven't stopped getting sucked into conspiracies then.
    Well it’s not a conspiracy that they were all given envelopes. It’s in the video. Probably they were from Trump, given it’s a serving secret service member that passed it to W. What weird shit would he have written in it! Could also have been an instruction from George Senior I suppose.
    So JUST because they all HAPPENED to receive SIMILAR LOOKING envelopes you've weaved this TIN FOIL FANTASY about it being deliberate!
    Kjh is so out of touch with reality he/she shouts CONSPIRACY at anything that moves. He/she is really quite bonkers.

    It can’t have been anything too top secret. Poor old Joe Biden drops his on the floor without realising he was holding it.
    Lol. It is only you (occasionally Leon, but mainly only you) that gets called out and by everyone not just me and it is me that is out of touch with reality? Talk about out of touch; you are in a league of your own. I mean did you not get that since my post several others have called you out as a nutter or do you not see the fun they are making of you. UFOs, COVID conspiracies, now seeing perfectly innocent stuff at a funerals as some wild stuff. You truly are completely nuts.
    Sorry but you are monumentally wrong about this. Your witless mantra of "Conspiracy theory" in the face of the evidence that covid was a lab escape, is conclusive proof that you lack the capacity for independent analytical thought.

    Don't feel bad about this.
    @IshmaelZ I have done no such thing. Just look at my posts of early today and last night. I have not disregarded the possibility of a lab escape. On the contrary I specifically quoted such escapes that happed in the UK in recent history eg Smallpox, Birmingham and Foot and Mouth, Pirbright to show it it not unreasonable. Not sure where you got that from. It is the completely nutty extrapolation stuff that @moonshine then comes out with that I object to.

    I suggest you read those posts and retract because you are misrepresenting me spectacularly.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,538
    Pulpstar said:

    alex_ said:

    .

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    Are we not taxed in Wales?
    I seem to remember Sunak announcing an increase in national insurance not Drakeford.
    A rise that I will also be paying.
    Missing the point. The issue in this case is not whether English taxpayers are paying for Welsh policy. It is that UK (and that includes Welsh) taxpayers are (potentially) paying for Welsh policy. And when UK taxes rise, it is the UK Govt that will be held responsible for it. By English and Welsh voters alike. So the potential political cost for Drakeford of implementing restrictions is lower than it might be for Johnson. Not non-existent, but slightly lower. Which could tip the balance when restrictions to "protect public health" are apparently popular. Which politician wouldn't pursue short term popularity if they don't bear the political price of the longer term consequences (higher taxation)?
    But that's missing my original point, isn't it? Restrictions aren't popular, so Drakeford isn't pursuing short-term popularity - if he was, he'd lift all the restrictions, wouldn't he? You may not agree with him, and nor may I, but he's been consistent.

    Could it be possible that Drakeford is doing what he thinks is right, regardless of popularity? It seems to me that it's the English PM who is more obsessed with popularity. I think the tax issue is a bit of a red herring.
    Doesn't polling show otherwise ?
    I suspect such polling as there is, is now out of date. I'm picking up that now most people have decided that Omicron is mild(er), restrictions are unpopular. Not a scientific analysis, I grant you, but that feels like the public mood.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,914

    Leon said:

    I remember when Warwick university was respected:

    https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios

    Predicted English hospitalisations 8,691
    Actual English hospitalisations 2,139

    Very close, given all the uncertainties. Kudos to Warwick.
    This incites the obvious question, has any - ANY - respected "model" ever modelled on the downside. ie, predicted fewer cases, hospitalisations and deaths than actually occurred?

    If none have done so, then this strongly suggests they all need putting-into-the-toilet
    Not sure about respected 'models', but lots of respected pundits on here were telling us throughout the summer and autumn that herd immunity had been reached and it was all over bar the shouting.
    Can't really remember anyone other than the prior incarnation of St Bart pushing that particular line. I remember, because I told him he was wrong at the time.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,663
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    A lot of truth to this; however, once again, the fact that the devolved governments are administrative heavyweights but fiscal pygmies is entirely the fault of Westminster.
    Is Scotland really a fiscal pygmy?
    I believe the Scottish government collects 40% of total tax raised in that nation.
    That's interesting - Scottish Parliamentary control over income tax policy is still only partial, but greater than I had realised.

    According to the 2022-23 Scottish budget, about one-third of devolved revenue would now appear to be under Scottish control - though, given that the vast majority of this is income tax receipts, the options of the devolved government are still limited. It has limited or no latitude to, for example, cut taxes on incomes and compensate for this by raising them on wealth, property or business profits (or vice versa.)
    One exception is the tax when houses are sold; but it did also make that more rational than the UK original, in being more graduated. IIRC the UKG soon followed that model, but I may be misremembering.
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244

    Leon said:

    I remember when Warwick university was respected:

    https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios

    Predicted English hospitalisations 8,691
    Actual English hospitalisations 2,139

    Very close, given all the uncertainties. Kudos to Warwick.
    This incites the obvious question, has any - ANY - respected "model" ever modelled on the downside. ie, predicted fewer cases, hospitalisations and deaths than actually occurred?

    If none have done so, then this strongly suggests they all need putting-into-the-toilet
    Not sure about respected 'models', but lots of respected pundits on here were telling us throughout the summer and autumn that herd immunity had been reached and it was all over bar the shouting.
    Yes Michael Levitt was arguing excess deaths had peaked in the US in summer 2020. Absent alpha and then delta I suppose it’s possible he would have been right. But this probably speaks to why we need a wider range of professional inputs than go in to a lot of those models.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,940
    Is The Drake a rugby fan? I can’t imagine the patriotic rugby-loving Nicola would countenance Scotland playing their home games at St James’ Park, but dunno about The Drake - he’s a man of mystery, an international playboy, an enigma wrapped in a riddle.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,617
    moonshine said:

    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    I’m probably late to the party here. But did it ever get discussed here what the envelopes to all the living presidents were about at George Bush Senior’s funeral? Not including Carter, apparently he didn’t get one!

    Jeb’s face when he sees his brother’s is a picture.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cHYbphiulKc&feature=youtu.be

    Something that can be read in 2 seconds but that provokes a gut punch reaction. Of course they may have all got something different.

    See we haven't stopped getting sucked into conspiracies then.
    Well it’s not a conspiracy that they were all given envelopes. It’s in the video. Probably they were from Trump, given it’s a serving secret service member that passed it to W. What weird shit would he have written in it! Could also have been an instruction from George Senior I suppose.
    Gosh they were given envelopes. How many times have I attend something and been given an envelope? Must be from Trump. Why? You are absolutely nuts.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,137
    alex_ said:

    .

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    Are we not taxed in Wales?
    I seem to remember Sunak announcing an increase in national insurance not Drakeford.
    A rise that I will also be paying.
    Missing the point. The issue in this case is not whether English taxpayers are paying for Welsh policy. It is that UK (and that includes Welsh) taxpayers are (potentially) paying for Welsh policy. And when UK taxes rise, it is the UK Govt that will be held responsible for it. By English and Welsh voters alike. So the potential political cost for Drakeford of implementing restrictions is lower than it might be for Johnson. Not non-existent, but slightly lower. Which could tip the balance when restrictions to "protect public health" are apparently popular. Which politician wouldn't pursue short term popularity if they don't bear the political price of the longer term consequences (higher taxation)?
    I knew exactly what you were saying and I was being mischievous.

    I find it somewhat worrying that the fanbois are more concerned by political fallout for the big man than they are for following the safest advice of the moment.

    I find it strange that if it is optimal for the Conservative Government, money can be found and justified for almost ANYTHING!

    Anyway thanks for subbing me for Drakeford's folly. It's much appreciated.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    I remember when Warwick university was respected:

    https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios

    Predicted English hospitalisations 8,691
    Actual English hospitalisations 2,139

    Very close, given all the uncertainties. Kudos to Warwick.
    This incites the obvious question, has any - ANY - respected "model" ever modelled on the downside. ie, predicted fewer cases, hospitalisations and deaths than actually occurred?

    If none have done so, then this strongly suggests they all need putting-into-the-toilet
    Usually action has been taken, or behaviour has changed, to ensure that the worst outcomes have been avoided. That's kinda the purpose of the models, is it not?
  • Options

    alex_ said:

    .

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    Are we not taxed in Wales?
    I seem to remember Sunak announcing an increase in national insurance not Drakeford.
    A rise that I will also be paying.
    Missing the point. The issue in this case is not whether English taxpayers are paying for Welsh policy. It is that UK (and that includes Welsh) taxpayers are (potentially) paying for Welsh policy. And when UK taxes rise, it is the UK Govt that will be held responsible for it. By English and Welsh voters alike. So the potential political cost for Drakeford of implementing restrictions is lower than it might be for Johnson. Not non-existent, but slightly lower. Which could tip the balance when restrictions to "protect public health" are apparently popular. Which politician wouldn't pursue short term popularity if they don't bear the political price of the longer term consequences (higher taxation)?
    But that's missing my original point, isn't it? Restrictions aren't popular, so Drakeford isn't pursuing short-term popularity - if he was, he'd lift all the restrictions, wouldn't he? You may not agree with him, and nor may I, but he's been consistent.

    Could it be possible that Drakeford is doing what he thinks is right, regardless of popularity? It seems to me that it's the English PM who is more obsessed with popularity. I think the tax issue is a bit of a red herring.
    Restrictions have been popular.

    Perhaps disturbingly so.

    For example:

    The majority of UK adults would support the idea of a two-week national lockdown starting in December to combat omicron, new polling suggests.

    Some 51 per cent backed the idea of lockdown over Christmas to halt the Covid variant’s rapid spread across the country, according to the latest Savanta ComRes survey.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/omicron-two-week-lockdown-poll-b1976727.html

    and

    Two thirds of people in Britain think at least some coronavirus restrictions should stay in place after July 19 when Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to do away with them in England, according to an opinion poll published on Thursday.

    Sixty-six percent of people taking part in the poll by Kantar Public wanted some, most or all of the restrictions to remain and 60% thought everyone should continue to wear face masks in shops and on public transport.


    https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/most-britons-want-covid-restrictions-remain-poll-2021-07-14/
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,024

    Leon said:

    I remember when Warwick university was respected:

    https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios

    Predicted English hospitalisations 8,691
    Actual English hospitalisations 2,139

    Very close, given all the uncertainties. Kudos to Warwick.
    This incites the obvious question, has any - ANY - respected "model" ever modelled on the downside. ie, predicted fewer cases, hospitalisations and deaths than actually occurred?

    If none have done so, then this strongly suggests they all need putting-into-the-toilet
    Usually action has been taken, or behaviour has changed, to ensure that the worst outcomes have been avoided. That's kinda the purpose of the models, is it not?
    Yes, I get that, but surely the government must see kinder, opposing models that say Well, it may not be so bad, actually it could be OK, let's just wear random bandanas for a few months

    If they are receiving these more optimistic prognoses, the people sure aren't. And, for the purposes of equilibrium, it would be good if we did get them, and if they were published

    And if the scientists aren't even making these positive models: then we have an issue
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,164

    Leon said:

    I remember when Warwick university was respected:

    https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios

    Predicted English hospitalisations 8,691
    Actual English hospitalisations 2,139

    Very close, given all the uncertainties. Kudos to Warwick.
    This incites the obvious question, has any - ANY - respected "model" ever modelled on the downside. ie, predicted fewer cases, hospitalisations and deaths than actually occurred?

    If none have done so, then this strongly suggests they all need putting-into-the-toilet
    Usually action has been taken, or behaviour has changed, to ensure that the worst outcomes have been avoided. That's kinda the purpose of the models, is it not?
    That’s an interesting take, and suggests why the models are as wrong as they are. Partly there is an element of getting the scary message out there so that behaviour change occurs.
    However I don’t think that is enough to explain why every time, it seems the reality is lower than the nest case scenarios.
  • Options

    Leon said:

    I remember when Warwick university was respected:

    https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios

    Predicted English hospitalisations 8,691
    Actual English hospitalisations 2,139

    Very close, given all the uncertainties. Kudos to Warwick.
    This incites the obvious question, has any - ANY - respected "model" ever modelled on the downside. ie, predicted fewer cases, hospitalisations and deaths than actually occurred?

    If none have done so, then this strongly suggests they all need putting-into-the-toilet
    Usually action has been taken, or behaviour has changed, to ensure that the worst outcomes have been avoided. That's kinda the purpose of the models, is it not?
    Well it certainly didn't in the case of the current Warwick model failure.

    And the "if we're right we're right and if we're wrong we're still right" lacks a little academic rigour.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983

    alex_ said:

    .

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    Are we not taxed in Wales?
    I seem to remember Sunak announcing an increase in national insurance not Drakeford.
    A rise that I will also be paying.
    Missing the point. The issue in this case is not whether English taxpayers are paying for Welsh policy. It is that UK (and that includes Welsh) taxpayers are (potentially) paying for Welsh policy. And when UK taxes rise, it is the UK Govt that will be held responsible for it. By English and Welsh voters alike. So the potential political cost for Drakeford of implementing restrictions is lower than it might be for Johnson. Not non-existent, but slightly lower. Which could tip the balance when restrictions to "protect public health" are apparently popular. Which politician wouldn't pursue short term popularity if they don't bear the political price of the longer term consequences (higher taxation)?
    But that's missing my original point, isn't it? Restrictions aren't popular, so Drakeford isn't pursuing short-term popularity - if he was, he'd lift all the restrictions, wouldn't he? You may not agree with him, and nor may I, but he's been consistent.

    Could it be possible that Drakeford is doing what he thinks is right, regardless of popularity? It seems to me that it's the English PM who is more obsessed with popularity. I think the tax issue is a bit of a red herring.
    If voters are generally in favour of restrictions, maybe he is pursuing popularity.
    More restrictions are popular with Labour voters, unpopular with Conservative voters. Both Drakeford and Boris are playing to their base
  • Options
    pigeon said:

    England is a “global outlier” in the fight against the Omicron wave of coronavirus because of its anti-restrictions stance, Wales’s First Minister Mark Drakeford has said.

    He isn't very bright is he....if you are going to make some shit up, you as well make it hard to check.

    He is quite extraordinarily out of touch and increasingly sounding so

    How this plays out for him I really do not know
    Attacking English policy is, of course, a smart move. It's not going to convince people like you who think he's called it wrong, but consider:

    1. It reinforces the justification for his own policy (I was being responsible, Johnson was being reckless)
    2. 'Wales was right, the English got it wrong' is always a message that's going to play well with Drakeford's core support
    3. An awful lot of people have been, and many still are, very frightened and adore restrictions (especially on things that other people enjoy but which they consider frivolous, expendable and, in some cases, would like to see banned permanently)

    If Wales had the necessary fiscal autonomy to have declared another hard lockdown before Christmas then Drakeford would almost certainly have done so, and all those receptive to the above arguments would've been delighted. I doubt very much that his handling of the pandemic is going to do him any harm at all.
    It's the lack of fiscal autonomy that is incentivising the devolved administration's to play up "caution" which makes them seem "responsible" while the Treasury pay the bills or get the blame.

    If the bill for such caution was being paid from their own budget then let's see how popular it remains.

    About the only decent devolved leader who has really shown true leadership in this entire pandemic is Andy Burnham. He's been surprisingly good!
  • Options

    Leon said:

    I remember when Warwick university was respected:

    https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios

    Predicted English hospitalisations 8,691
    Actual English hospitalisations 2,139

    Very close, given all the uncertainties. Kudos to Warwick.
    This incites the obvious question, has any - ANY - respected "model" ever modelled on the downside. ie, predicted fewer cases, hospitalisations and deaths than actually occurred?

    If none have done so, then this strongly suggests they all need putting-into-the-toilet
    Usually action has been taken, or behaviour has changed, to ensure that the worst outcomes have been avoided. That's kinda the purpose of the models, is it not?
    That’s an interesting take, and suggests why the models are as wrong as they are. Partly there is an element of getting the scary message out there so that behaviour change occurs.
    However I don’t think that is enough to explain why every time, it seems the reality is lower than the nest case scenarios.
    Indeed.

    Its not just that the reality is so different from the middle forecast its that the reality is way lower than the huge prediction spread that the model gave.

    When you have a prediction between 6k and 13k hospitalisations and the actual number is 2k then the model has been proven wrong.
  • Options

    Nigelb said:

    Did someone mention Beardsley. Perfect to bring up in this discussion (I think that’s the right (phrase). I ❤️Aubrey’s work. Everything he done really. In so few brushstrokes he doesn’t just so capture sauciness, he created magical worlds to live in. I don’t use G word often, but he was a true genius. Dead at 26 😢

    “Lysistrata was first produced in 411 BC, when the Peloponnesian War had been devastating Greece for 20 years.Lysistrata assembles women from all of Greece, and they agree that they will not have sex until the men make peace.” That’s your plot for the next Carry On film!

    https://victorianweb.org/art/illustration/beardsley/57.html

    We love Carry On PB don’t we?

    Carry On PB would be a great film.
    I think we all know who Sid James would play.
    Now this is a game to take my mind off Swindon losing on tv. Who gets to play @Cyclefree?
    Maggie Smith.
    That's, er, bold casting. Maggie Smith is 87......
    Is that older or younger than @Cyclefree?
    I've met Cyclefree. She is considerably younger and better looking than Maggie Smith.

    Probably a better actress too.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,538
    Gosh, this is hard work. All I'm suggesting is that people consider the possibility that Drakeford is doing what he thinks is the right thing to do (in light of scientific/medical advice) rather than doing what he thinks may be popular, and that he's done this all through the pandemic - which he has, warts and all.

    I'm a bit of an old-fashioned chap, but I find it quite appealing that a leader is not swayed by opinion polls or social media in enacting policy during a crisis, but tries to do the right thing. Even if it's wrong. I suspect that's where Drakeford belongs.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,550
    Telegraph: 4th jab not necessary, say experts.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Did someone mention Beardsley. Perfect to bring up in this discussion (I think that’s the right (phrase). I ❤️Aubrey’s work. Everything he done really. In so few brushstrokes he doesn’t just so capture sauciness, he created magical worlds to live in. I don’t use G word often, but he was a true genius. Dead at 26 😢

    “Lysistrata was first produced in 411 BC, when the Peloponnesian War had been devastating Greece for 20 years.Lysistrata assembles women from all of Greece, and they agree that they will not have sex until the men make peace.” That’s your plot for the next Carry On film!

    https://victorianweb.org/art/illustration/beardsley/57.html

    We love Carry On PB don’t we?

    Carry On PB would be a great film.
    Matron! Take him away!
    (Re: "Carry on PB") Correction - "Monitor! Take him way!"
    Correction - "Moderator! Take him away!"
    That’s why I didn’t get it the first time! 😆
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,192
    Oh FFS.


    Tracy Webb
    @TracyWebb007
    ·
    1h
    I worry about this quite alot - if the NHS becomes the service of emergency care only, the path to greater inequalities is paved.


    Charlotte Augst
    @CharlotteAugst
    The NHS is at risk of becoming an emergency only service. This is the least sustainable way of running a health service and it will exacerbate inequalities.


    ===

    NHS core budget is £160b (King's fund figures) for 21-22.

    If they can only run an emergency service then something is utterly wrong.
  • Options
    This thread has been shut down like Drakeford's Wales....
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,796

    alex_ said:

    .

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    Are we not taxed in Wales?
    I seem to remember Sunak announcing an increase in national insurance not Drakeford.
    A rise that I will also be paying.
    Missing the point. The issue in this case is not whether English taxpayers are paying for Welsh policy. It is that UK (and that includes Welsh) taxpayers are (potentially) paying for Welsh policy. And when UK taxes rise, it is the UK Govt that will be held responsible for it. By English and Welsh voters alike. So the potential political cost for Drakeford of implementing restrictions is lower than it might be for Johnson. Not non-existent, but slightly lower. Which could tip the balance when restrictions to "protect public health" are apparently popular. Which politician wouldn't pursue short term popularity if they don't bear the political price of the longer term consequences (higher taxation)?
    But that's missing my original point, isn't it? Restrictions aren't popular, so Drakeford isn't pursuing short-term popularity - if he was, he'd lift all the restrictions, wouldn't he? You may not agree with him, and nor may I, but he's been consistent.

    Could it be possible that Drakeford is doing what he thinks is right, regardless of popularity? It seems to me that it's the English PM who is more obsessed with popularity. I think the tax issue is a bit of a red herring.
    If voters are generally in favour of restrictions, maybe he is pursuing popularity.
    One political lesson of the pandemic is that voters will happily trade freedom for safety. It is part of a trajectory set by the rise of surveillance technology over the past two decades, which people have allowed to encroach significantly in to their personal freedoms. Opposition to this is ultimately just an elite hobby horse.

    Drakeford and Sturgeon are politicians exploiting this sad human tendency to shore up their own popularity.
    It has very little to do with public health and everything to do with politics.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,940

    As someone not familiar with Erdington, would those that are classify it as red wall, big city labour, both or neither?

    I ended up in someone’s flat there after a belting night clubbing in Brum in the late 1990s. I know nothing more about the place. Seemed okay, from what I remember.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952
    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    .

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    Are we not taxed in Wales?
    I seem to remember Sunak announcing an increase in national insurance not Drakeford.
    A rise that I will also be paying.
    Missing the point. The issue in this case is not whether English taxpayers are paying for Welsh policy. It is that UK (and that includes Welsh) taxpayers are (potentially) paying for Welsh policy. And when UK taxes rise, it is the UK Govt that will be held responsible for it. By English and Welsh voters alike. So the potential political cost for Drakeford of implementing restrictions is lower than it might be for Johnson. Not non-existent, but slightly lower. Which could tip the balance when restrictions to "protect public health" are apparently popular. Which politician wouldn't pursue short term popularity if they don't bear the political price of the longer term consequences (higher taxation)?
    But that's missing my original point, isn't it? Restrictions aren't popular, so Drakeford isn't pursuing short-term popularity - if he was, he'd lift all the restrictions, wouldn't he? You may not agree with him, and nor may I, but he's been consistent.

    Could it be possible that Drakeford is doing what he thinks is right, regardless of popularity? It seems to me that it's the English PM who is more obsessed with popularity. I think the tax issue is a bit of a red herring.
    If voters are generally in favour of restrictions, maybe he is pursuing popularity.
    More restrictions are popular with Labour voters, unpopular with Conservative voters. Both Drakeford and Boris are playing to their base
    You keep saying that. But the difference is minor.
  • Options
    Carnyx said:

    .

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    Are we not taxed in Wales?
    I seem to remember Sunak announcing an increase in national insurance not Drakeford.
    A rise that I will also be paying.
    That's right. PBTories often have this curious notion that only the non-devolved nation pays taxes of any kind. It often spills over into their explicit language. Often at the same time as others are berating the Scottish Gmt for its high tax policy.

    My favourite was the Conservative Gmt giving more money to senior ranks in the armed forces to compensate those unfortunate enough to be stationed in Scotland. But did they give more money to the lower ranks unfortunate enough to be stationed in England? No, they did not. Which says a great deal about the centre/other mentality discussed here the other day.
    Considering the devolved nations have been so extremely eager for restrictions, could you name the top tax rises the devolved nations have put in that match eg the National Insurance tax rise that Sunak inflicted upon us all?

    Action without taxation responsibility is an extremely bizarre constitutional mess we are in.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,502
    Rewatched In the Heat of the Night for the first time in decades tonight.
    Poitier really was remarkable.
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    I remember when Warwick university was respected:

    https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios

    Predicted English hospitalisations 8,691
    Actual English hospitalisations 2,139

    Very close, given all the uncertainties. Kudos to Warwick.
    This incites the obvious question, has any - ANY - respected "model" ever modelled on the downside. ie, predicted fewer cases, hospitalisations and deaths than actually occurred?

    If none have done so, then this strongly suggests they all need putting-into-the-toilet
    Not sure about respected 'models', but lots of respected pundits on here were telling us throughout the summer and autumn that herd immunity had been reached and it was all over bar the shouting.
    Can't really remember anyone other than the prior incarnation of St Bart pushing that particular line. I remember, because I told him he was wrong at the time.
    We did have herd immunity. R was at 1 without restrictions that is the definition of herd immunity.

    The virus mutated so we no longer have it, but we did.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Nigelb said:

    Did someone mention Beardsley. Perfect to bring up in this discussion (I think that’s the right (phrase). I ❤️Aubrey’s work. Everything he done really. In so few brushstrokes he doesn’t just so capture sauciness, he created magical worlds to live in. I don’t use G word often, but he was a true genius. Dead at 26 😢

    “Lysistrata was first produced in 411 BC, when the Peloponnesian War had been devastating Greece for 20 years.Lysistrata assembles women from all of Greece, and they agree that they will not have sex until the men make peace.” That’s your plot for the next Carry On film!

    https://victorianweb.org/art/illustration/beardsley/57.html

    We love Carry On PB don’t we?

    Carry On PB would be a great film.
    I think we all know who Sid James would play.
    Now this is a game to take my mind off Swindon losing on tv. Who gets to play @Cyclefree?
    Maggie Smith.
    That's, er, bold casting. Maggie Smith is 87......
    Is that older or younger than @Cyclefree?
    I've met Cyclefree. She is considerably younger and better looking than Maggie Smith.

    Probably a better actress too.
    Gillian Anderson to play Cyclefree you seem to be saying?

    I’m more than happy for Angelina Jolie to play me. 😘
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,940

    .

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    Are we not taxed in Wales?
    I seem to remember Sunak announcing an increase in national insurance not Drakeford.
    A rise that I will also be paying.
    So ?

    When people look for someone to blame when taxes rise its the person who announced it who gets the blame not the person spending the money the tax rise raises.

    Now you can blame Drakeford if you want.

    But I doubt Welsh Labour will be boasting that national insurance is increasing because Drakeford wanted to put 'public health first' with extra restrictions.
    Is public mental health considered part of public health? It should be, of course.
  • Options
    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    I’m probably late to the party here. But did it ever get discussed here what the envelopes to all the living presidents were about at George Bush Senior’s funeral? Not including Carter, apparently he didn’t get one!

    Jeb’s face when he sees his brother’s is a picture.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cHYbphiulKc&feature=youtu.be

    Something that can be read in 2 seconds but that provokes a gut punch reaction. Of course they may have all got something different.

    See we haven't stopped getting sucked into conspiracies then.
    Well it’s not a conspiracy that they were all given envelopes. It’s in the video. Probably they were from Trump, given it’s a serving secret service member that passed it to W. What weird shit would he have written in it! Could also have been an instruction from George Senior I suppose.
    Gosh they were given envelopes. How many times have I attend something and been given an envelope? Must be from Trump. Why? You are absolutely nuts.
    Breathless reportage re: The Envelopes at GHWB's funeral is certainly worthy of mirth.

    On the other hand, the Presidency IS the Presidency. Meaning that, as with the Monarchy, virtually everything is potential (often actual) fodder for historical-cultural legend.

    From President Taft getting stuck in the White House bathtub, to Edward VII smashing statues of John Brown littering the landscape at Balmoral.

    Plenty more examples, from nearlyevery administration and reign (also visa versa).

    Bet ya way more Americans can identify "Lemonade Lucy" than current US Secretary of State.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,940
    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    .

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    Are we not taxed in Wales?
    I seem to remember Sunak announcing an increase in national insurance not Drakeford.
    A rise that I will also be paying.
    Missing the point. The issue in this case is not whether English taxpayers are paying for Welsh policy. It is that UK (and that includes Welsh) taxpayers are (potentially) paying for Welsh policy. And when UK taxes rise, it is the UK Govt that will be held responsible for it. By English and Welsh voters alike. So the potential political cost for Drakeford of implementing restrictions is lower than it might be for Johnson. Not non-existent, but slightly lower. Which could tip the balance when restrictions to "protect public health" are apparently popular. Which politician wouldn't pursue short term popularity if they don't bear the political price of the longer term consequences (higher taxation)?
    But that's missing my original point, isn't it? Restrictions aren't popular, so Drakeford isn't pursuing short-term popularity - if he was, he'd lift all the restrictions, wouldn't he? You may not agree with him, and nor may I, but he's been consistent.

    Could it be possible that Drakeford is doing what he thinks is right, regardless of popularity? It seems to me that it's the English PM who is more obsessed with popularity. I think the tax issue is a bit of a red herring.
    Polling consistently shows depressingly high support for restrictions (particularly on restrictions that affect other people).
    That’s been the case since the start - people support restrictions on things they don’t do. At one point ISTR some 25% of those polled supported the permanent - permanent! - closure of nightclubs.
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    Oh FFS.


    Tracy Webb
    @TracyWebb007
    ·
    1h
    I worry about this quite alot - if the NHS becomes the service of emergency care only, the path to greater inequalities is paved.


    Charlotte Augst
    @CharlotteAugst
    The NHS is at risk of becoming an emergency only service. This is the least sustainable way of running a health service and it will exacerbate inequalities.


    ===

    NHS core budget is £160b (King's fund figures) for 21-22.

    If they can only run an emergency service then something is utterly wrong.

    And employs about 1.7m.
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    New Thread

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    edited January 2022
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    .

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    Are we not taxed in Wales?
    I seem to remember Sunak announcing an increase in national insurance not Drakeford.
    A rise that I will also be paying.
    Missing the point. The issue in this case is not whether English taxpayers are paying for Welsh policy. It is that UK (and that includes Welsh) taxpayers are (potentially) paying for Welsh policy. And when UK taxes rise, it is the UK Govt that will be held responsible for it. By English and Welsh voters alike. So the potential political cost for Drakeford of implementing restrictions is lower than it might be for Johnson. Not non-existent, but slightly lower. Which could tip the balance when restrictions to "protect public health" are apparently popular. Which politician wouldn't pursue short term popularity if they don't bear the political price of the longer term consequences (higher taxation)?
    But that's missing my original point, isn't it? Restrictions aren't popular, so Drakeford isn't pursuing short-term popularity - if he was, he'd lift all the restrictions, wouldn't he? You may not agree with him, and nor may I, but he's been consistent.

    Could it be possible that Drakeford is doing what he thinks is right, regardless of popularity? It seems to me that it's the English PM who is more obsessed with popularity. I think the tax issue is a bit of a red herring.
    If voters are generally in favour of restrictions, maybe he is pursuing popularity.
    More restrictions are popular with Labour voters, unpopular with Conservative voters. Both Drakeford and Boris are playing to their base
    You keep saying that. But the difference is minor.
    But it is there.

    As I showed you Tory voters want to keep large events open, Labour voters want to close them. Labour voters want to return to rule of 6 indoors, Tory voters oppose a return to rule of 6 indoors
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    .

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    Are we not taxed in Wales?
    I seem to remember Sunak announcing an increase in national insurance not Drakeford.
    A rise that I will also be paying.
    So ?

    When people look for someone to blame when taxes rise its the person who announced it who gets the blame not the person spending the money the tax rise raises.

    Now you can blame Drakeford if you want.

    But I doubt Welsh Labour will be boasting that national insurance is increasing because Drakeford wanted to put 'public health first' with extra restrictions.
    Is public mental health considered part of public health? It should be, of course.
    Indeed.

    Many of the restrictions have actually damaged people's health.

    Not just their mental health but restricting people's activities can also worsen their physical health and fitness.

    And its the most vulnerable who are most at risk of having their health damaged by having restrictions placed upon them.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,940

    pigeon said:

    England is a “global outlier” in the fight against the Omicron wave of coronavirus because of its anti-restrictions stance, Wales’s First Minister Mark Drakeford has said.

    He isn't very bright is he....if you are going to make some shit up, you as well make it hard to check.

    He is quite extraordinarily out of touch and increasingly sounding so

    How this plays out for him I really do not know
    Attacking English policy is, of course, a smart move. It's not going to convince people like you who think he's called it wrong, but consider:

    1. It reinforces the justification for his own policy (I was being responsible, Johnson was being reckless)
    2. 'Wales was right, the English got it wrong' is always a message that's going to play well with Drakeford's core support
    3. An awful lot of people have been, and many still are, very frightened and adore restrictions (especially on things that other people enjoy but which they consider frivolous, expendable and, in some cases, would like to see banned permanently)

    If Wales had the necessary fiscal autonomy to have declared another hard lockdown before Christmas then Drakeford would almost certainly have done so, and all those receptive to the above arguments would've been delighted. I doubt very much that his handling of the pandemic is going to do him any harm at all.
    It's the lack of fiscal autonomy that is incentivising the devolved administration's to play up "caution" which makes them seem "responsible" while the Treasury pay the bills or get the blame.

    If the bill for such caution was being paid from their own budget then let's see how popular it remains.

    About the only decent devolved leader who has really shown true leadership in this entire pandemic is Andy Burnham. He's been surprisingly good!
    Yes, Burnham has been excellent. An interesting dovish voice that reflects the views of most urban Labourites - and of course many non-Labour voters too.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847

    Carnyx said:

    .

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    Are we not taxed in Wales?
    I seem to remember Sunak announcing an increase in national insurance not Drakeford.
    A rise that I will also be paying.
    That's right. PBTories often have this curious notion that only the non-devolved nation pays taxes of any kind. It often spills over into their explicit language. Often at the same time as others are berating the Scottish Gmt for its high tax policy.

    My favourite was the Conservative Gmt giving more money to senior ranks in the armed forces to compensate those unfortunate enough to be stationed in Scotland. But did they give more money to the lower ranks unfortunate enough to be stationed in England? No, they did not. Which says a great deal about the centre/other mentality discussed here the other day.
    Considering the devolved nations have been so extremely eager for restrictions, could you name the top tax rises the devolved nations have put in that match eg the National Insurance tax rise that Sunak inflicted upon us all?

    Action without taxation responsibility is an extremely bizarre constitutional mess we are in.
    Possibly the only sensible BR post ever?

    I might try to write a thread on this.
    The union is unsustainable in its current form, and rather geeky details about fiscal arrangements are now (or should be) critical matters of statecraft.
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