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The trend here should seriously concern Downing Street – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 23 in General
imageThe trend here should seriously concern Downing Street – politicalbetting.com

The preferred PM/Chancellor team question is not one that gets included much in political polling but it was part of the latest MoS/Deltapoll at the weekend. To put the latest findings in context, I thought it useful to look back at previous Deltapolls where this has been included.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    edited January 3
    1st, like the UK's covid cases on a per capita basis.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited January 3
    Going into 12 years of the Tories in power, only 5% behind Labour is not that bad. Even Kinnock and John Smith and Ed Miliband and Ed Balls had bigger leads over the Tories midterm than that.

    Blair and Brown and Cameron and Osborne certainly had bigger leads over the government midterm than just 5%
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Bit of a gimmick polling these teams? What's the point?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,651
    Afternoon all :)

    I'm impressed by Rachel Reeves as Shadow CoE. She has completely abandoned the absurdity of the McDonnell era and has returned Labour to policy positions not, it has to be said, too far removed from spendthrift Sunak.

    Anyone who worried about voting Labour from an economic viewpoint has little to worry about - there are other reasons (perhaps) for not voting Labour.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,059
    HYUFD said:

    Going into 12 years of the Tories in power, only 5% behind Labour is not that bad. Even Kinnock and John Smith and Ed Miliband and Ed Balls had bigger leads over the Tories midterm than that.

    Blair and Brown and Cameron and Osborne certainly had bigger leads over the government midterm than just 5%

    When?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,059
    IshmaelZ said:

    Bit of a gimmick polling these teams? What's the point?

    You could say that about all polling. Generally the more polling numbers are disliked by someone then the more likely that are to say that the findings are irrelevant.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,651
    As for the latest pronouncements on the virus, it's probably far too late for any restrictions for have a meaningful effect.

    All we can do is ride out the storm and hope any rises in hospitalisations are short-lived and that disruptions to services through staff absenteeism can be minimised.

    The next question is at what point will fourth vaccinations be considered. Presumably efficacy levels are being constantly monitored and while it seems three vaccinations hasn't stopped people contracting the Omicron variant, the evidence I've seen is it's a mild infection. Nonetheless, there must be a concern for older people with other health issues whose protection from three vaccinations may start to wane while Omicron is still moving through the population.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 139
    The only thing standing between Johnson and a leadership challenge now is the narrative of 'tories fight among themselves amid pandemic.'

    When COVID subsides the rebels will attack. They won't wait until next year, or even May.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    IshmaelZ said:

    Bit of a gimmick polling these teams? What's the point?

    You could say that about all polling. Generally the more polling numbers are disliked by someone then the more likely that are to say that the findings are irrelevant.

    IshmaelZ said:

    Bit of a gimmick polling these teams? What's the point?

    You could say that about all polling. Generally the more polling numbers are disliked by someone then the more likely that are to say that the findings are irrelevant.
    Well, not by me. The more seriously anything concerns Downing Street atm the happier I am. I just wonder if you would get a different result in this or most other cases if you polled best pm, or best chancellor, and we could both work out the net result, and see if there was a marked favouring/disfavouring of one of the 4 individuals.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,081
    Pulpstar said:

    1st, like the UK's covid cases on a per capita basis.

    Er no, that's Andorra. We're 11th. Although admittedly the only largish country ahead of us is Czechia.

    But that's if you believe all countries have detected and reported cases equally, and believe Worldometer, of course.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 35,025
    FPT
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    » show previous quotes
    Yes! This is the man that is still a fan of Alex Salmond, the only politician that I am aware of that has been described by his own QC as "a bully and a sex pest", and also described IIRC as similar by his successor.

    Scumbags are out now I see, the bottom feeder of bottom feeders, Back under your rock you sad cretinous 10lb of shit in a 5lb bag
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 35,025
    FPT @kjh
    malcolmg said:

    kjh said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    FFS, our media are utterly useless:

    Covid: English secondary pupils to be tested before starting term
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59854920

    This was announced back in November.

    Moreover, it isn’t accurate. They’re not to be tested *before* starting back, they are to be tested *on* starting back. Given the numbers to be tested that will have to go ahead as stated because there is no time to make changes (most schools starting back tomorrow).

    I am very rapidly coming to the conclusion that every single member of the DfE is actively out to destroy education, rather than just being thick as mince. The whole thing is spinning to try and look as if they’re doing something to conceal the fact they have completely failed to take the only two measures that would work - smaller classes and air filters.

    And yet the media aren’t even asking the basic questions about this.

    Yep. I wasn't paying close attention TBH but they were interviewing Zahawi on the TV a few minutes ago, and most of the discussion seemed to revolve around masks, before it moved on to generic stuff about the NHS and staff absences.

    Leaky cotton or paper masks are almost certainly useless against Omicron and, therefore, constitute futile something-must-be-done-ism, but they are also highly visible and a nuisance, divisive imposition which therefore attracts a lot of media attention and argument. Ventilation is boring so nobody's interested in talking about it.
    They had a go on R4, but Zahawi rather determinedly avoided the awkward questions.
    What questions did they ask, can you remember?

    So far nothing from my school, but they may simply have been caught by surprise.
    Something along the lines of are basic masks if any utility against Omicron, but Zahawi just moved on to other stuff and ignored the attempt at a follow up question.
    Thanks for the reply but - Hmph. That says a lot. Not in a good way.

    I had hopes when Zahawi was appointed that he would finally kick some arse at the DfE. So far, he has mostly been a disappointment.
    Just another windbag chancer, none of this lot have any talent. Just a large team of grifters and /or dumplings.
    Yes but TBF Malc you think that of every politician except Alex Salmond, Ken Clarke and possibly Joanna Cherry.
    I occasionally get the (slightly unfair) impression that malcolm despises anyone who isn't him.
    I seem to get on with him ok. He has made some very pleasant responses to some of my posts. Should I be worried?
    kjh, you should just realise that makes you a normal decent chap , I only respond in kind to arseholes, hence why I have convivial responses with yourself.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 35,025
    FPT @Carnyx


    Carnyx said:

    » show previous quotes
    Hello Malky. It is indeed dreich and I don't have Covid! Edit: weather's grey enough in itself without that as well, I mean ...

    Hello Carnyx, yes but buds are already out, will soon be spring
    Flag Quote · Off Topic Like
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,681
    Pulpstar said:

    1st, like the UK's covid cases on a per capita basis.

    Does that also mean we are first in the race to herd immunity?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 5,083
    fpt

    Just googled 'pressure hospitals London' and all the stories are from some time ago. How much longer do we give Omicron to make a real impact?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    edited January 3
    Odd story - seemingly Daniel Kawczynski has had state subsidised polish lessons. I'm trying to work out
    i) Is it true.
    ii) Why on earth they would be a state subsidised expense.
    iii) Can't he speak it already ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    Ha, am I late to the party in just noticing that the PoliticsForAll guy finally got kicked off Twitter?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,681
    malcolmg said:

    FPT @Carnyx


    Carnyx said:

    » show previous quotes
    Hello Malky. It is indeed dreich and I don't have Covid! Edit: weather's grey enough in itself without that as well, I mean ...

    Hello Carnyx, yes but buds are already out, will soon be spring
    Flag Quote · Off Topic Like

    We have primroses out. Snowdrops are almost out.

    Fat buds on many things.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673

    malcolmg said:

    FPT @Carnyx


    Carnyx said:

    » show previous quotes
    Hello Malky. It is indeed dreich and I don't have Covid! Edit: weather's grey enough in itself without that as well, I mean ...

    Hello Carnyx, yes but buds are already out, will soon be spring
    Flag Quote · Off Topic Like

    We have primroses out. Snowdrops are almost out.

    Fat buds on many things.
    Didn't think that was legal in this country yet
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited January 3
    Sandpit said:

    Ha, am I late to the party in just noticing that the PoliticsForAll guy finally got kicked off Twitter?

    The whole network of accounts and personal accounts got torpedoed.

    My presumption is there has to be more to the story. They don't normally nuke all your accounts like that if say it was a copyright issue or claims of an inaccurate statement.

    There has always been a bit of something off about that setup, that they were able to go from nothing to being more prominent than mainstream media accounts in no time. I always wondered if they have found some growth hack against TOS.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349

    Pulpstar said:

    1st, like the UK's covid cases on a per capita basis.

    Does that also mean we are first in the race to herd immunity?
    That'll be a function of vaccination numbers, recency, type; covid numbers, covid type, covid recency; behaviour.
    We're probably there or thereabouts near the lead.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 35,025
    edited January 3

    malcolmg said:

    FPT @Carnyx


    Carnyx said:

    » show previous quotes
    Hello Malky. It is indeed dreich and I don't have Covid! Edit: weather's grey enough in itself without that as well, I mean ...

    Hello Carnyx, yes but buds are already out, will soon be spring
    Flag Quote · Off Topic Like

    We have primroses out. Snowdrops are almost out.

    Fat buds on many things.
    You do have an advantage of 500 miles or so though. You will be sunbathing soon. Sounds very pleasant, we will have snowdrops out soon as well.
    PS: All the best for 2022, did not see you on here as much in 20221.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    edited January 3

    Sandpit said:

    Ha, am I late to the party in just noticing that the PoliticsForAll guy finally got kicked off Twitter?

    The whole network of accounts and personal accounts got torpedoed.

    My presumption is there has to be more to the story. They don't normally nuke all your accounts like that if say it was a copyright issue or claims of an inaccurate statement.
    I’m surprised it took so long.

    It was clearly a bot that scraped headlines from news websites as they were published, and reprinted the headline unattributed, then had hundreds of likes within seconds, manipulating Twitter’s platform in order to be seen as the original source of the story on Twitter.

    I would have thought that all the genuine press sources were complaining to Twitter about the copyright infringement, which was quite deliberate and widespread. The correct etiquette is to link to the source of the story, which he was making a point of not doing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    It would appear that the DfE did not mean tests should be taken 'before' rejoining lessons, but rather, 'when returning to school.'

    Which is completely different, and is what they said back in November.

    So why have they reannounced it today and got it completely wrong?

    Because they are totally fucking stupid and unfit to run a village fete.

    Somebody please just lock them up in a lunatic asylum where they belong.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited January 3
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ha, am I late to the party in just noticing that the PoliticsForAll guy finally got kicked off Twitter?

    The whole network of accounts and personal accounts got torpedoed.

    My presumption is there has to be more to the story. They don't normally nuke all your accounts like that if say it was a copyright issue or claims of an inaccurate statement.
    I’m surprised it took so long.

    It was clearly a bot that scraped headlines from news websites as they were published, and reprinted the headline unattributed, then had hundreds of likes within seconds, manipulating Twitter’s platform in order to be seen as the original source of the story on Twitter.

    I would have thought that all the genuine press sources were completing to Twitter about the copyright infringement, which was quite deliberate and widespread. The correct etiquette is to link to the source of the story, which he was making a point of not doing.
    I believe they recently registered as a business, I wonder if that also triggered it, as now there is a legal entity trying to monetarise this approach.

    The conspiracy theory was it was really some sort of covert Tory plan to do (non) independent news, but that always seemed rubbish to me. The guy behind it might have been a Tory voter, but it spammed out all sorts of headlines that were not exactly in the interests of the Tories to be widely disseminated.

    I think it is might more like as you say there was botting going on and the guy had found an exploit within the twitter algorithm that meant those account always got lots of spread. The speed of their growth, even if they did early get some plugs by established journalists, just seemed unrealistic. It was nowhere to everywhere in a no time. Most new brands can only dream of doing this.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380
    ydoethur said:

    It would appear that the DfE did not mean tests should be taken 'before' rejoining lessons, but rather, 'when returning to school.'

    Which is completely different, and is what they said back in November.

    So why have they reannounced it today and got it completely wrong?

    Because they are totally fucking stupid and unfit to run a village fete.

    Somebody please just lock them up in a lunatic asylum where they belong.

    "Somebody please just lock them up in a lunatic asylum where they belong" - seems a bit harsh towards the lunatics already in the lunatic asylum?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617

    Pulpstar said:

    1st, like the UK's covid cases on a per capita basis.

    Er no, that's Andorra. We're 11th. Although admittedly the only largish country ahead of us is Czechia.

    But that's if you believe all countries have detected and reported cases equally, and believe Worldometer, of course.
    Cases and deaths are all over the shop. Looking at the current stats for the UK and Germany, as reported by ourworldindata.org, the UK has over eight times the per capita case rate of Germany yet Germany has about 40% more Covid deaths per capita. Most likely this is because Germany's testing regime is rubbish and they're not picking up the true scale of the pandemic there.

    As for the cumulative death stats, if you believe that, for example, Russia has had fewer casualties per capita than either us or the Belgians, then I've got a bridge, etc., etc.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    edited January 3

    ydoethur said:

    It would appear that the DfE did not mean tests should be taken 'before' rejoining lessons, but rather, 'when returning to school.'

    Which is completely different, and is what they said back in November.

    So why have they reannounced it today and got it completely wrong?

    Because they are totally fucking stupid and unfit to run a village fete.

    Somebody please just lock them up in a lunatic asylum where they belong.

    "Somebody please just lock them up in a lunatic asylum where they belong" - seems a bit harsh towards the lunatics already in the lunatic asylum?
    ~You're right.

    I withdraw that suggestion.

    Anybody got any other ideas as to what we could do with these - people?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Bit of a gimmick polling these teams? What's the point?

    You could say that about all polling. Generally the more polling numbers are disliked by someone then the more likely that are to say that the findings are irrelevant.

    IshmaelZ said:

    Bit of a gimmick polling these teams? What's the point?

    You could say that about all polling. Generally the more polling numbers are disliked by someone then the more likely that are to say that the findings are irrelevant.
    Well, not by me. The more seriously anything concerns Downing Street atm the happier I am. I just wonder if you would get a different result in this or most other cases if you polled best pm, or best chancellor, and we could both work out the net result, and see if there was a marked favouring/disfavouring of one of the 4 individuals.
    PBers and similar aside, I doubt if most people have a detailed opinion about Rachel Reeves. Why the polling is important is that, as Stodge observes, it shows that the "Labour will bankrupt you" attack has lost its sting.

    HYUFD is quite right that 5% isn't a huge lead, and I could imagine it drifting down towards zero. But the strategic position of the Tories is bad. They have no allies, large numbers of their supporters don't trust them, like them or think their policies are good, and there is a settled bloc of 40% of the voters who are implacably waiting for the chance to get them out, not because they hate Conservatives but because they feel they've been in power too long, they are hugely complacent and are now basically taking the piss. The differences between Labour and LibDem policies are obscure since neither party has any to speak of, so willingness to vote tactically is at record heights.

    As a socialist I'm not entirely thrilled by all of this - I'd rather we had a splendid left-wing platform attracting 50% of the vote. But I'm a realist, and I think they're on course to lose at the moment.
    If there was a general election tomorrow then yes the Tories would likely lose and Starmer would become PM with Labour winning most seats in a hung parliament. However, a long way to go yet
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    It's starting to look like the Toon are actually going to sign Trippier. Fantastic signing if so.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 31,040
    The royalists are at the don't let rotten Andy spoil our barrel of superb apples stage.



    Pretty sure that HMQ is the only obstacle stopping 'the Firm' indulging in one of its periodic acts of self preservation by leaving the colonel of the Grenadier Guards to hang out to dry.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582

    It's starting to look like the Toon are actually going to sign Trippier. Fantastic signing if so.

    Why would Trippier sign for them.....oh wait, lots of wonga?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380
    Pulpstar said:

    Odd story - seemingly Daniel Kawczynski has had state subsidised polish lessons. I'm trying to work out
    i) Is it true.
    ii) Why on earth they would be a state subsidised expense.
    iii) Can't he speak it already ?

    Plenty of people can't speak (very well) the language of their minority origin.

    The question comes back to something I've raised before - what is the career path for an MP? What skills should they have/develop?

    For example - doing a law degree, part time. Sounds like an idea for legislators. Or management training. Sounds like an idea for would be minsters..... Project management training? Computer science? etc etc

    Being an MP seems to be stuck in the old give-em-a-job-and-see-if-they-sink-or-swim methods.

    I have worked at several companies where they paid for people to do night classes in various languages - generally French/Spanish - as part of a plan of personal/skill development.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673

    It's starting to look like the Toon are actually going to sign Trippier. Fantastic signing if so.

    Why would Trippier sign for them.....oh wait, lots of wonga?
    Wonga was a good few years ago mate
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    It would appear that the DfE did not mean tests should be taken 'before' rejoining lessons, but rather, 'when returning to school.'

    Which is completely different, and is what they said back in November.

    So why have they reannounced it today and got it completely wrong?

    Because they are totally fucking stupid and unfit to run a village fete.

    Somebody please just lock them up in a lunatic asylum where they belong.

    "Somebody please just lock them up in a lunatic asylum where they belong" - seems a bit harsh towards the lunatics already in the lunatic asylum?
    ~You're right.

    I withdraw that suggestion.

    Anybody got any other ideas as to what we could do with these - people?
    I understand the summer on Pluto is quite nice this year.

    Perhaps they could act as councillors to the dwarf planet for the shock of having lost its status as a proper planet?

    It seems just like the kind of futile gesture politics nonsense that the DfE specialises in.

    Elon Musk to the red courtesy phone, please, Elon Musk to the red courtesy phone.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited January 3

    The royalists are at the don't let rotten Andy spoil our barrel of superb apples stage.



    Pretty sure that HMQ is the only obstacle stopping 'the Firm' indulging in one of its periodic acts of self preservation by leaving the colonel of the Grenadier Guards to hang out to dry.

    Not really an accurate article given even Harry and his children with Meghan are now higher in the line of succession than Prince Andrew.

    Andrew is now only 9th in line to the throne, he is far less relevant to the future of the monarchy than he was in 1980 when he was 2nd in line behind Charles before William and Harry and their children were born
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    Pulpstar said:

    Odd story - seemingly Daniel Kawczynski has had state subsidised polish lessons. I'm trying to work out
    i) Is it true.
    ii) Why on earth they would be a state subsidised expense.
    iii) Can't he speak it already ?

    I can't see how one can justify learning another language, however commendable it is and more British people should, on the public purse. Translation services that Dennis McGabble got done for fiddling, I can see how that could be a legit expense, but learning to speak the language, on what grounds should that be able to stuck on expenses?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ha, am I late to the party in just noticing that the PoliticsForAll guy finally got kicked off Twitter?

    The whole network of accounts and personal accounts got torpedoed.

    My presumption is there has to be more to the story. They don't normally nuke all your accounts like that if say it was a copyright issue or claims of an inaccurate statement.
    I’m surprised it took so long.

    It was clearly a bot that scraped headlines from news websites as they were published, and reprinted the headline unattributed, then had hundreds of likes within seconds, manipulating Twitter’s platform in order to be seen as the original source of the story on Twitter.

    I would have thought that all the genuine press sources were completing to Twitter about the copyright infringement, which was quite deliberate and widespread. The correct etiquette is to link to the source of the story, which he was making a point of not doing.
    I believe they recently registered as a business, I wonder if that also triggered it, as now there is a legal entity trying to monetarise this approach.

    The conspiracy theory was it was really some sort of covert Tory plan to do (non) independent news, but that always seemed rubbish to me. The guy behind it might have been a Tory voter, but it spammed out all sorts of headlines that were not exactly in the interests of the Tories to be widely disseminated.

    I think it is might more like as you say there was botting going on and the guy had found an exploit within the twitter algorithm that meant those account always got lots of spread. The speed of their growth, even if they did early get some plugs by established journalists, just seemed unrealistic. It was nowhere to everywhere in a no time. Most new brands can only dream of doing this.
    I’m not sure it was any particular political opinion or side, it was just picking up every single story and Tweeting it before anyone else did, including the original source of the story, backed up with a bot network to immediately like it. So all the journalists following politics, see that account at the top of the feed all the time.

    It was said to be a student doing it, but if he was running multiple accounts and then registered a company, he was clearly guilty of platform manipulation and copyright infringement. It’s a bit like the definition of pornography, that one knows it when one sees it. Doing what he was doing, but commercially, clearly sends the dubious behaviour over the line.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 31,040
    edited January 3

    Pulpstar said:

    Odd story - seemingly Daniel Kawczynski has had state subsidised polish lessons. I'm trying to work out
    i) Is it true.
    ii) Why on earth they would be a state subsidised expense.
    iii) Can't he speak it already ?

    Plenty of people can't speak (very well) the language of their minority origin.

    The question comes back to something I've raised before - what is the career path for an MP? What skills should they have/develop?

    For example - doing a law degree, part time. Sounds like an idea for legislators. Or management training. Sounds like an idea for would be minsters..... Project management training? Computer science? etc etc

    Being an MP seems to be stuck in the old give-em-a-job-and-see-if-they-sink-or-swim methods.

    I have worked at several companies where they paid for people to do night classes in various languages - generally French/Spanish - as part of a plan of personal/skill development.
    Kawczynski was born in Poland and lived there till age six, and also claims to be a fluent speaker of Polish. Of course one can't rule out the possibility that he's a boastful bullshitter, but £20k+ on the public tab seems quite a lot to confirm that.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660
    edited January 3
    MISTY said:

    The only thing standing between Johnson and a leadership challenge now is the narrative of 'tories fight among themselves amid pandemic.'

    When COVID subsides the rebels will attack. They won't wait until next year, or even May.

    There's that narrative to avoid, yes. It rules out anything until Spring. But there are other factors mitigating against ousting him. As yet the polls don't show definitively that Johnson himself is the reason the Cons are trailing. Also there needs to be a match between those willing to bring him down and their preferred alternative being likely to win. You won't want to trigger a contest if there's a good chance you'll get someone even less to your taste. For me it's about a 3/1 shot he goes this year.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,303
    IshmaelZ said:

    Bit of a gimmick polling these teams? What's the point?

    Adds to general information.

    Something may not be hugely relevant as a sole critical factor, but that doesn't mean it is entirely irrelevant as part of a wider context either.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited January 3

    HYUFD said:

    Going into 12 years of the Tories in power, only 5% behind Labour is not that bad. Even Kinnock and John Smith and Ed Miliband and Ed Balls had bigger leads over the Tories midterm than that.

    Blair and Brown and Cameron and Osborne certainly had bigger leads over the government midterm than just 5%

    When?
    In late 1990 Kinnock Labour was over 10% ahead of Thatcher's Tories in most polls. Miliband Labour was 10%+ ahead in polls in 2012, early 2013. New Labour was 20%+ ahead of Major's Tories by late 1994, early 1995 and Cameron's Tories led Brown Labour by 10%+ by late 2008
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited January 3
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ha, am I late to the party in just noticing that the PoliticsForAll guy finally got kicked off Twitter?

    The whole network of accounts and personal accounts got torpedoed.

    My presumption is there has to be more to the story. They don't normally nuke all your accounts like that if say it was a copyright issue or claims of an inaccurate statement.
    I’m surprised it took so long.

    It was clearly a bot that scraped headlines from news websites as they were published, and reprinted the headline unattributed, then had hundreds of likes within seconds, manipulating Twitter’s platform in order to be seen as the original source of the story on Twitter.

    I would have thought that all the genuine press sources were completing to Twitter about the copyright infringement, which was quite deliberate and widespread. The correct etiquette is to link to the source of the story, which he was making a point of not doing.
    I believe they recently registered as a business, I wonder if that also triggered it, as now there is a legal entity trying to monetarise this approach.

    The conspiracy theory was it was really some sort of covert Tory plan to do (non) independent news, but that always seemed rubbish to me. The guy behind it might have been a Tory voter, but it spammed out all sorts of headlines that were not exactly in the interests of the Tories to be widely disseminated.

    I think it is might more like as you say there was botting going on and the guy had found an exploit within the twitter algorithm that meant those account always got lots of spread. The speed of their growth, even if they did early get some plugs by established journalists, just seemed unrealistic. It was nowhere to everywhere in a no time. Most new brands can only dream of doing this.
    I’m not sure it was any particular political opinion or side, it was just picking up every single story and Tweeting it before anyone else did, including the original source of the story, backed up with a bot network to immediately like it. So all the journalists following politics, see that account at the top of the feed all the time.

    It was said to be a student doing it, but if he was running multiple accounts and then registered a company, he was clearly guilty of platform manipulation and copyright infringement. It’s a bit like the definition of pornography, that one knows it when one sees it. Doing what he was doing, but commercially, clearly sends the dubious behaviour over the line.
    Its very smart exploit in some senses. We all know the journalists these days just circle jerk tweets from other media outlets, and somebody has just short circuited that process for them, inserted himself into middle by putting it all in one place so they can get their direction from a single account, leading to even more engagement, leading to wider spread.....

    I believe the Spectator hired him to aid their social media, which is a bit awkward if the basis of his operation is all botted accounts. But I imagine other companies would be very interested in seeing what he can do for their brands (makes you wonder if he is already doing so).
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482
    When do we expect the Work From Home If You Can to be lifted?

    I am thinking end of Jan? Need to get a cheapo motor for station runs before it’s lifted.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 332

    Pulpstar said:

    Odd story - seemingly Daniel Kawczynski has had state subsidised polish lessons. I'm trying to work out
    i) Is it true.
    ii) Why on earth they would be a state subsidised expense.
    iii) Can't he speak it already ?

    Plenty of people can't speak (very well) the language of their minority origin.
    He grew up in Poland until he was 6 and has previously described himself as fluent in the language.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 317
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Bit of a gimmick polling these teams? What's the point?

    You could say that about all polling. Generally the more polling numbers are disliked by someone then the more likely that are to say that the findings are irrelevant.

    IshmaelZ said:

    Bit of a gimmick polling these teams? What's the point?

    You could say that about all polling. Generally the more polling numbers are disliked by someone then the more likely that are to say that the findings are irrelevant.
    Well, not by me. The more seriously anything concerns Downing Street atm the happier I am. I just wonder if you would get a different result in this or most other cases if you polled best pm, or best chancellor, and we could both work out the net result, and see if there was a marked favouring/disfavouring of one of the 4 individuals.
    PBers and similar aside, I doubt if most people have a detailed opinion about Rachel Reeves. Why the polling is important is that, as Stodge observes, it shows that the "Labour will bankrupt you" attack has lost its sting.

    HYUFD is quite right that 5% isn't a huge lead, and I could imagine it drifting down towards zero. But the strategic position of the Tories is bad. They have no allies, large numbers of their supporters don't trust them, like them or think their policies are good, and there is a settled bloc of 40% of the voters who are implacably waiting for the chance to get them out, not because they hate Conservatives but because they feel they've been in power too long, they are hugely complacent and are now basically taking the piss. The differences between Labour and LibDem policies are obscure since neither party has any to speak of, so willingness to vote tactically is at record heights.

    As a socialist I'm not entirely thrilled by all of this - I'd rather we had a splendid left-wing platform attracting 50% of the vote. But I'm a realist, and I think they're on course to lose at the moment.
    If there was a general election tomorrow then yes the Tories would likely lose and Starmer would become PM with Labour winning most seats in a hung parliament. However, a long way to go yet
    I honestly do not know what will happen at the next election TBH. I would say anything between Labour getting 300 seats and an exact rerun of 2019 is entirely plausible. It depends on who the Tories are led by.

    My main concern about Starmer is his mediocre performance in real elections (locals and by elections) even if that has slightly changed recently and his lacklustre PM rating even if he is ahead in that category at the moment.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499
    @stodge @Stocky

    Forget restrictions. The international evidence suggests they don’t work, the public have got the memo that Omicron is mild, and support for lockdowns and masking is sliding away.

    The policy challenge should now be around the seven day isolation penalty, which is crippling services and private businesses. We have millions sitting at home with nothing much wrong with them.

    Three days test and release seems a sensible compromise to me.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499
    @Nigel_Foremain FPT

    I’m a socialist/social democrat/centrist (delete as HYUFD deems appropriate) who believes in public services.

    PUBLIC SERVICES. The clue is in the name. The grand vision of the NHS was to serve the public.

    We seem to have entered some bizarre twilight zone whereby the public is supposed to serve the NHS.

    It’s not a charity. That’s the point. It’s a socialist state body that was built to serve the people.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Bit of a gimmick polling these teams? What's the point?

    You could say that about all polling. Generally the more polling numbers are disliked by someone then the more likely that are to say that the findings are irrelevant.

    IshmaelZ said:

    Bit of a gimmick polling these teams? What's the point?

    You could say that about all polling. Generally the more polling numbers are disliked by someone then the more likely that are to say that the findings are irrelevant.
    Well, not by me. The more seriously anything concerns Downing Street atm the happier I am. I just wonder if you would get a different result in this or most other cases if you polled best pm, or best chancellor, and we could both work out the net result, and see if there was a marked favouring/disfavouring of one of the 4 individuals.
    PBers and similar aside, I doubt if most people have a detailed opinion about Rachel Reeves. Why the polling is important is that, as Stodge observes, it shows that the "Labour will bankrupt you" attack has lost its sting.

    HYUFD is quite right that 5% isn't a huge lead, and I could imagine it drifting down towards zero. But the strategic position of the Tories is bad. They have no allies, large numbers of their supporters don't trust them, like them or think their policies are good, and there is a settled bloc of 40% of the voters who are implacably waiting for the chance to get them out, not because they hate Conservatives but because they feel they've been in power too long, they are hugely complacent and are now basically taking the piss. The differences between Labour and LibDem policies are obscure since neither party has any to speak of, so willingness to vote tactically is at record heights.

    As a socialist I'm not entirely thrilled by all of this - I'd rather we had a splendid left-wing platform attracting 50% of the vote. But I'm a realist, and I think they're on course to lose at the moment.
    If there was a general election tomorrow then yes the Tories would likely lose and Starmer would become PM with Labour winning most seats in a hung parliament. However, a long way to go yet
    I honestly do not know what will happen at the next election TBH. I would say anything between Labour getting 300 seats and an exact rerun of 2019 is entirely plausible. It depends on who the Tories are led by.

    My main concern about Starmer is his mediocre performance in real elections (locals and by elections) even if that has slightly changed recently and his lacklustre PM rating even if he is ahead in that category at the moment.
    Starmer certainly needs a better performance in this May's local elections than he had last year. Though on present polling he is likely to be lucky and Labour should have their best local election performance and make their most gains from the Tories since 2012 when Ed Miliband's Labour was 7% ahead of Cameron's Tories and gained 823 council seats
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    Evergrande's shares suspended in HK. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59855881

    The dominos are starting to fall. Just as well we have plenty in the piggy bank to get us through the disruption of the next year. Sorry, what's that? We spent it all on Covid? Ahh...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 35,025

    The royalists are at the don't let rotten Andy spoil our barrel of superb apples stage.



    Pretty sure that HMQ is the only obstacle stopping 'the Firm' indulging in one of its periodic acts of self preservation by leaving the colonel of the Grenadier Guards to hang out to dry.

    They will bring in a law that makes him immune, these parasites always look after themselves.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,649
    Pulpstar said:

    Odd story - seemingly Daniel Kawczynski has had state subsidised polish lessons. I'm trying to work out
    i) Is it true.
    ii) Why on earth they would be a state subsidised expense.
    iii) Can't he speak it already ?

    The Mail ran the story in November so it would be fairly amazing if not true. Obviously bluffed/exaggerated/lied about speaking it already, not much of a surprise given his politics.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 35,025

    @stodge @Stocky

    Forget restrictions. The international evidence suggests they don’t work, the public have got the memo that Omicron is mild, and support for lockdowns and masking is sliding away.

    The policy challenge should now be around the seven day isolation penalty, which is crippling services and private businesses. We have millions sitting at home with nothing much wrong with them.

    Three days test and release seems a sensible compromise to me.

    I was still testing positive after 8 days
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,649
    DavidL said:

    Evergrande's shares suspended in HK. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59855881

    The dominos are starting to fall. Just as well we have plenty in the piggy bank to get us through the disruption of the next year. Sorry, what's that? We spent it all on Covid? Ahh...

    Stock markets rising today.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 35,025

    Pulpstar said:

    Odd story - seemingly Daniel Kawczynski has had state subsidised polish lessons. I'm trying to work out
    i) Is it true.
    ii) Why on earth they would be a state subsidised expense.
    iii) Can't he speak it already ?

    Plenty of people can't speak (very well) the language of their minority origin.
    He grew up in Poland until he was 6 and has previously described himself as fluent in the language.
    He is a Tory, why would anyone expect he was not be robbing the public
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 332

    Pulpstar said:

    Odd story - seemingly Daniel Kawczynski has had state subsidised polish lessons. I'm trying to work out
    i) Is it true.
    ii) Why on earth they would be a state subsidised expense.
    iii) Can't he speak it already ?

    The Mail ran the story in November so it would be fairly amazing if not true. Obviously bluffed/exaggerated/lied about speaking it already, not much of a surprise given his politics.
    Or bluffed/exaggerated/lied about is expenses.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ha, am I late to the party in just noticing that the PoliticsForAll guy finally got kicked off Twitter?

    The whole network of accounts and personal accounts got torpedoed.

    My presumption is there has to be more to the story. They don't normally nuke all your accounts like that if say it was a copyright issue or claims of an inaccurate statement.
    I’m surprised it took so long.

    It was clearly a bot that scraped headlines from news websites as they were published, and reprinted the headline unattributed, then had hundreds of likes within seconds, manipulating Twitter’s platform in order to be seen as the original source of the story on Twitter.

    I would have thought that all the genuine press sources were completing to Twitter about the copyright infringement, which was quite deliberate and widespread. The correct etiquette is to link to the source of the story, which he was making a point of not doing.
    I believe they recently registered as a business, I wonder if that also triggered it, as now there is a legal entity trying to monetarise this approach.

    The conspiracy theory was it was really some sort of covert Tory plan to do (non) independent news, but that always seemed rubbish to me. The guy behind it might have been a Tory voter, but it spammed out all sorts of headlines that were not exactly in the interests of the Tories to be widely disseminated.

    I think it is might more like as you say there was botting going on and the guy had found an exploit within the twitter algorithm that meant those account always got lots of spread. The speed of their growth, even if they did early get some plugs by established journalists, just seemed unrealistic. It was nowhere to everywhere in a no time. Most new brands can only dream of doing this.
    I’m not sure it was any particular political opinion or side, it was just picking up every single story and Tweeting it before anyone else did, including the original source of the story, backed up with a bot network to immediately like it. So all the journalists following politics, see that account at the top of the feed all the time.

    It was said to be a student doing it, but if he was running multiple accounts and then registered a company, he was clearly guilty of platform manipulation and copyright infringement. It’s a bit like the definition of pornography, that one knows it when one sees it. Doing what he was doing, but commercially, clearly sends the dubious behaviour over the line.
    Its very smart exploit in some senses. We all know the journalists these days just circle jerk tweets from other media outlets, and somebody has just short circuited that process for them, inserted himself into the process by putting it all in one place so they can get their direction from a single account, leading to even more engagement, leading to wider spread.....

    I believe the Spectator hired him to aid their social media, which is a bit awkward if the basis of his operation is all botted accounts. But I imagine other companies would be very interested in seeing what he can do for their brands (makes you wonder if he is already doing so).
    I’m sure if he’s now working for an actual media org, they might appreciate him actually linking to their stories rather than simply putting “Breaking” in front of a scraped headline, several hundred times a day :D

    Nonetheless, maybe a good way of getting noticed in a crowded field, and the Speccie are well known for taking unconventionally-qualified people on for internships. Everyone in the political media will now know of him.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617
    moonshine said:

    When do we expect the Work From Home If You Can to be lifted?

    I am thinking end of Jan? Need to get a cheapo motor for station runs before it’s lifted.

    I don't think that any of the relatively modest restrictions we've got will be lifted until it is obvious both that the case wave has peaked and that the hospitals are over the worst of it (exception: the self-isolation rules might be reviewed again if they're preventing society from continuing to function.) That'd put us some distance into February at least. It's all about optics, of course: lifting any of the rules before that would make it look as if the Government wasn't taking the situation seriously and didn't care about the suffering of the NHS or the patients, even if the rules themselves were demonstrably useless.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    edited January 3

    Pulpstar said:

    Odd story - seemingly Daniel Kawczynski has had state subsidised polish lessons. I'm trying to work out
    i) Is it true.
    ii) Why on earth they would be a state subsidised expense.
    iii) Can't he speak it already ?

    Plenty of people can't speak (very well) the language of their minority origin.
    He grew up in Poland until he was 6 and has previously described himself as fluent in the language.
    And he has no official role relating to Poland. I'd have thought his Polish was good enough to communicate with Poles in his constituency who may have limited English, but if that's the reason then you could justify it - and more so - to almost every MP in the entire country.
    The reasoning of personal development simply does not cut it here, particularly when the costs are considered - they are far far higher than other MPs language development e.g. Shadow Commons leader Thangam Debonnaire took £3,411 worth of Arabic classes in 2020-21, saying it 'helps me communicate with the diverse population' in her Bristol West constituency.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,649

    Pulpstar said:

    Odd story - seemingly Daniel Kawczynski has had state subsidised polish lessons. I'm trying to work out
    i) Is it true.
    ii) Why on earth they would be a state subsidised expense.
    iii) Can't he speak it already ?

    The Mail ran the story in November so it would be fairly amazing if not true. Obviously bluffed/exaggerated/lied about speaking it already, not much of a surprise given his politics.
    Or bluffed/exaggerated/lied about is expenses.
    True. Or both!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    The royalists are at the don't let rotten Andy spoil our barrel of superb apples stage.



    Pretty sure that HMQ is the only obstacle stopping 'the Firm' indulging in one of its periodic acts of self preservation by leaving the colonel of the Grenadier Guards to hang out to dry.

    No dog in the fight but the republicans don't come out of this smelling of roses. Not even the Democrat republicans.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    Naughty....

    Glasses For All
    @Specsavers

    Please don’t suspend us Twitter
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660

    fpt

    Just googled 'pressure hospitals London' and all the stories are from some time ago. How much longer do we give Omicron to make a real impact?

    It's having a big impact but not of the 'ICUs overwhelmed' sort which would trigger a lockdown - although it wouldn't since it's too late now. 4 to 6 weeks of disruption due to mass (mainly mild) sickness & isolation, a grim time for the NHS and those needing it, then we're there. Post pandemic UK dawns.

    The big picture is our rope-a-dope approach to Omicron is going to work out ok.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 39,240
    :lol:

    image
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482
    pigeon said:

    moonshine said:

    When do we expect the Work From Home If You Can to be lifted?

    I am thinking end of Jan? Need to get a cheapo motor for station runs before it’s lifted.

    I don't think that any of the relatively modest restrictions we've got will be lifted until it is obvious both that the case wave has peaked and that the hospitals are over the worst of it (exception: the self-isolation rules might be reviewed again if they're preventing society from continuing to function.) That'd put us some distance into February at least. It's all about optics, of course: lifting any of the rules before that would make it look as if the Government wasn't taking the situation seriously and didn't care about the suffering of the NHS or the patients, even if the rules themselves were demonstrably useless.
    Yes I should learn my lesson from their reticence to lift in 2021 shouldn’t I.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,081
    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Odd story - seemingly Daniel Kawczynski has had state subsidised polish lessons. I'm trying to work out
    i) Is it true.
    ii) Why on earth they would be a state subsidised expense.
    iii) Can't he speak it already ?

    Plenty of people can't speak (very well) the language of their minority origin.
    He grew up in Poland until he was 6 and has previously described himself as fluent in the language.
    He is a Tory, why would anyone expect he was not be robbing the public
    If he hasn't spoken Polish daily since he was six, he may have found himself getting very rusty. Even if they spoke Polish in the family home, he wouldn't have had much opportunity since leaving home.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited January 3
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ha, am I late to the party in just noticing that the PoliticsForAll guy finally got kicked off Twitter?

    The whole network of accounts and personal accounts got torpedoed.

    My presumption is there has to be more to the story. They don't normally nuke all your accounts like that if say it was a copyright issue or claims of an inaccurate statement.
    I’m surprised it took so long.

    It was clearly a bot that scraped headlines from news websites as they were published, and reprinted the headline unattributed, then had hundreds of likes within seconds, manipulating Twitter’s platform in order to be seen as the original source of the story on Twitter.

    I would have thought that all the genuine press sources were completing to Twitter about the copyright infringement, which was quite deliberate and widespread. The correct etiquette is to link to the source of the story, which he was making a point of not doing.
    I believe they recently registered as a business, I wonder if that also triggered it, as now there is a legal entity trying to monetarise this approach.

    The conspiracy theory was it was really some sort of covert Tory plan to do (non) independent news, but that always seemed rubbish to me. The guy behind it might have been a Tory voter, but it spammed out all sorts of headlines that were not exactly in the interests of the Tories to be widely disseminated.

    I think it is might more like as you say there was botting going on and the guy had found an exploit within the twitter algorithm that meant those account always got lots of spread. The speed of their growth, even if they did early get some plugs by established journalists, just seemed unrealistic. It was nowhere to everywhere in a no time. Most new brands can only dream of doing this.
    I’m not sure it was any particular political opinion or side, it was just picking up every single story and Tweeting it before anyone else did, including the original source of the story, backed up with a bot network to immediately like it. So all the journalists following politics, see that account at the top of the feed all the time.

    It was said to be a student doing it, but if he was running multiple accounts and then registered a company, he was clearly guilty of platform manipulation and copyright infringement. It’s a bit like the definition of pornography, that one knows it when one sees it. Doing what he was doing, but commercially, clearly sends the dubious behaviour over the line.
    Its very smart exploit in some senses. We all know the journalists these days just circle jerk tweets from other media outlets, and somebody has just short circuited that process for them, inserted himself into the process by putting it all in one place so they can get their direction from a single account, leading to even more engagement, leading to wider spread.....

    I believe the Spectator hired him to aid their social media, which is a bit awkward if the basis of his operation is all botted accounts. But I imagine other companies would be very interested in seeing what he can do for their brands (makes you wonder if he is already doing so).
    I’m sure if he’s now working for an actual media org, they might appreciate him actually linking to their stories rather than simply putting “Breaking” in front of a scraped headline, several hundred times a day :D

    Nonetheless, maybe a good way of getting noticed in a crowded field, and the Speccie are well known for taking unconventionally-qualified people on for internships. Everyone in the political media will now know of him.
    What I find slightly odd is I can see media organisations being pissed of with him, although it seems a lot of journalists didn't seem to be at all (as I say, I think its because it made their job easier). There is a fair number of supportive messages from blue checkmarks.

    But [email protected], especially the lefty ones, seem to detest him. I guess it was because he said he voted Brexit and Tory, when the scraped headlines weren't even remotely one sided in say the way Guido Fawkes is. I am not sure why they would be so angry about a bot account just retweeting the national newspaper headlines.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499
    pigeon said:

    moonshine said:

    When do we expect the Work From Home If You Can to be lifted?

    I am thinking end of Jan? Need to get a cheapo motor for station runs before it’s lifted.

    I don't think that any of the relatively modest restrictions we've got will be lifted until it is obvious both that the case wave has peaked and that the hospitals are over the worst of it (exception: the self-isolation rules might be reviewed again if they're preventing society from continuing to function.) That'd put us some distance into February at least. It's all about optics, of course: lifting any of the rules before that would make it look as if the Government wasn't taking the situation seriously and didn't care about the suffering of the NHS or the patients, even if the rules themselves were demonstrably useless.
    Which is the big problem with bringing in rules without evidence: they tend to hang around even though they are useless.

    So theatregoers and fashion shopping trips will remain under masks until February? I hope you are wrong, but I fear you could be right.
  • mickydroymickydroy Posts: 35

    :lol:

    image

    Dull, but trustworthy beats incompetent liar, if there is any justice
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069

    DavidL said:

    Evergrande's shares suspended in HK. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59855881

    The dominos are starting to fall. Just as well we have plenty in the piggy bank to get us through the disruption of the next year. Sorry, what's that? We spent it all on Covid? Ahh...

    Stock markets rising today.
    The UK markets are officially closed today but the BBC has very modestly negative figures for the FTSE and FTSE 250.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Watched Don't Look Up last night. It is properly entertaining, and a clever premise - comet as allegory for climate change. And there are some brilliant moments, especially at the start, when the astronomers encounter outrageous NORMALCY BIAS

    But then it becomes uneven in tone, sometimes low farce, sometimes witty comedy, sometimes sentimental drama, and they jar, and the parochial Americanism is tedious, especially the laboured, lazy assaults on Trumpism and silly white people. Yes yes yes we know they are awful but it's such a crappy obvious target, and it is annoying and boring.

    It's a film that wants to be Doctor Strangelove for global warming but lacks the Southern/Kubrick Strangelove script - and it lacks Peter Sellers - one star to bring together a stellar cast. Something of a missed opportunity. Coulda been a masterpiece




  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,081
    malcolmg said:

    @stodge @Stocky

    Forget restrictions. The international evidence suggests they don’t work, the public have got the memo that Omicron is mild, and support for lockdowns and masking is sliding away.

    The policy challenge should now be around the seven day isolation penalty, which is crippling services and private businesses. We have millions sitting at home with nothing much wrong with them.

    Three days test and release seems a sensible compromise to me.

    I was still testing positive after 8 days
    They advise you not to test for 90 days because of the possibility of false positives. It's unclear whether this includes LFTs but a bit of Google research found some govt advice to care home owners which advised that their staff shouldn't have to test within 90 days of infection and that included LFTs.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582

    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Odd story - seemingly Daniel Kawczynski has had state subsidised polish lessons. I'm trying to work out
    i) Is it true.
    ii) Why on earth they would be a state subsidised expense.
    iii) Can't he speak it already ?

    Plenty of people can't speak (very well) the language of their minority origin.
    He grew up in Poland until he was 6 and has previously described himself as fluent in the language.
    He is a Tory, why would anyone expect he was not be robbing the public
    If he hasn't spoken Polish daily since he was six, he may have found himself getting very rusty. Even if they spoke Polish in the family home, he wouldn't have had much opportunity since leaving home.
    This might be true and very commendable to learn to speak the language of your birth fluently...but not sure how it is justifiable to charge the public purse for this. I don't see how it is essential to his ability to be an MP.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited January 3
    Leon said:

    Watched Don't Look Up last night. It is properly entertaining, and a clever premise - comet as allegory for climate change. And there are some brilliant moments, especially at the start, when the astronomers encounter outrageous NORMALCY BIAS

    But then it becomes uneven in tone, sometimes low farce, sometimes witty comedy, sometimes sentimental drama, and they jar, and the parochial Americanism is tedious, especially the laboured, lazy assaults on Trumpism and silly white people. Yes yes yes we know they are awful but it's such a crappy obvious target, and it is annoying and boring.

    It's a film that wants to be Doctor Strangelove for global warming but lacks the Southern/Kubrick Strangelove script - and it lacks Peter Sellers - one star to bring together a stellar cast. Something of a missed opportunity. Coulda been a masterpiece




    For all the talk among the "right on" lefty comedians that one should only punch up and speak truth to power, it does seem thick (British / American) white working class (Brexit / Trump voter) have become the go to punch line of lazy joke in the way the "thick" Irish were at one point for right wing comedians.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,081
    malcolmg said:

    The royalists are at the don't let rotten Andy spoil our barrel of superb apples stage.



    Pretty sure that HMQ is the only obstacle stopping 'the Firm' indulging in one of its periodic acts of self preservation by leaving the colonel of the Grenadier Guards to hang out to dry.

    They will bring in a law that makes him immune, these parasites always look after themselves.
    Surely it's not clear there is evidence of an offence being committed. She was 17 at the time and they would have to show he was aware she was trafficked, or was a minor engaging in prostitution.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    Leon said:

    Watched Don't Look Up last night. It is properly entertaining, and a clever premise - comet as allegory for climate change. And there are some brilliant moments, especially at the start, when the astronomers encounter outrageous NORMALCY BIAS

    But then it becomes uneven in tone, sometimes low farce, sometimes witty comedy, sometimes sentimental drama, and they jar, and the parochial Americanism is tedious, especially the laboured, lazy assaults on Trumpism and silly white people. Yes yes yes we know they are awful but it's such a crappy obvious target, and it is annoying and boring.

    It's a film that wants to be Doctor Strangelove for global warming but lacks the Southern/Kubrick Strangelove script - and it lacks Peter Sellers - one star to bring together a stellar cast. Something of a missed opportunity. Coulda been a masterpiece




    I really liked it although I would agree the first half was stronger than the second.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 332

    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Odd story - seemingly Daniel Kawczynski has had state subsidised polish lessons. I'm trying to work out
    i) Is it true.
    ii) Why on earth they would be a state subsidised expense.
    iii) Can't he speak it already ?

    Plenty of people can't speak (very well) the language of their minority origin.
    He grew up in Poland until he was 6 and has previously described himself as fluent in the language.
    He is a Tory, why would anyone expect he was not be robbing the public
    If he hasn't spoken Polish daily since he was six, he may have found himself getting very rusty. Even if they spoke Polish in the family home, he wouldn't have had much opportunity since leaving home.
    He claimed £22k in language learning expenses. The best place to learn Polish in the UK is probably SSEES. They have six courses from beginner to Higher Advanced Plus: https://www.ucl.ac.uk/ssees/evening-courses/polish Each course costs £820. For less than £5k, you could do all six courses. Yet Kawczynski, who grew up speaking Polish, who described himself as fluent in the language, needed £22k to brush up?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Leon said:

    Watched Don't Look Up last night. It is properly entertaining, and a clever premise - comet as allegory for climate change. And there are some brilliant moments, especially at the start, when the astronomers encounter outrageous NORMALCY BIAS

    But then it becomes uneven in tone, sometimes low farce, sometimes witty comedy, sometimes sentimental drama, and they jar, and the parochial Americanism is tedious, especially the laboured, lazy assaults on Trumpism and silly white people. Yes yes yes we know they are awful but it's such a crappy obvious target, and it is annoying and boring.

    It's a film that wants to be Doctor Strangelove for global warming but lacks the Southern/Kubrick Strangelove script - and it lacks Peter Sellers - one star to bring together a stellar cast. Something of a missed opportunity. Coulda been a masterpiece

    I watched Strangelove for the first time a couple of days ago. Not as funny as I thought it would be - admittedly not trying to be merely funny - but Sellers not nearly as good in any of those roles as he is as Clouseau, and the Strangelove character's mein fuhrer and involuntary salutes stuff is surely equally lazy?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617
    moonshine said:

    pigeon said:

    moonshine said:

    When do we expect the Work From Home If You Can to be lifted?

    I am thinking end of Jan? Need to get a cheapo motor for station runs before it’s lifted.

    I don't think that any of the relatively modest restrictions we've got will be lifted until it is obvious both that the case wave has peaked and that the hospitals are over the worst of it (exception: the self-isolation rules might be reviewed again if they're preventing society from continuing to function.) That'd put us some distance into February at least. It's all about optics, of course: lifting any of the rules before that would make it look as if the Government wasn't taking the situation seriously and didn't care about the suffering of the NHS or the patients, even if the rules themselves were demonstrably useless.
    Yes I should learn my lesson from their reticence to lift in 2021 shouldn’t I.
    Indeed, although OTOH the restrictions now in force are evidently a pale shadow of last January's horror, and I'm reasonably confident now that we're not going to see too much heel-dragging coming out of them either.

    The refusal of the Government to gold plate plan B (save for masks in schools, which IMHO they've only done for PR reasons and because it imposes zero economic cost,) is also mildly encouraging. I won't be completely satisfied that there won't be any further backsliding into restrictions until we're through Omicron and out the other side, but it really does appear that they want to manage without them this time around.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499

    pigeon said:

    moonshine said:

    When do we expect the Work From Home If You Can to be lifted?

    I am thinking end of Jan? Need to get a cheapo motor for station runs before it’s lifted.

    I don't think that any of the relatively modest restrictions we've got will be lifted until it is obvious both that the case wave has peaked and that the hospitals are over the worst of it (exception: the self-isolation rules might be reviewed again if they're preventing society from continuing to function.) That'd put us some distance into February at least. It's all about optics, of course: lifting any of the rules before that would make it look as if the Government wasn't taking the situation seriously and didn't care about the suffering of the NHS or the patients, even if the rules themselves were demonstrably useless.
    Which is the big problem with bringing in rules without evidence: they tend to hang around even though they are useless.

    So theatregoers and fashion shopping trips will remain under masks until February? I hope you are wrong, but I fear you could be right.
    OTOH, think Plan B has a sunset clause on 26 Jan. Would require a fresh vote and continued Labour C&S. Let’s see where we are on the data.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    malcolmg said:

    FPT @Carnyx


    Carnyx said:

    » show previous quotes
    Hello Malky. It is indeed dreich and I don't have Covid! Edit: weather's grey enough in itself without that as well, I mean ...

    Hello Carnyx, yes but buds are already out, will soon be spring
    Flag Quote · Off Topic Like

    Not immediately obvious from the office window, but we are a bit exposed anyway where we live.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 11,474

    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Odd story - seemingly Daniel Kawczynski has had state subsidised polish lessons. I'm trying to work out
    i) Is it true.
    ii) Why on earth they would be a state subsidised expense.
    iii) Can't he speak it already ?

    Plenty of people can't speak (very well) the language of their minority origin.
    He grew up in Poland until he was 6 and has previously described himself as fluent in the language.
    He is a Tory, why would anyone expect he was not be robbing the public
    If he hasn't spoken Polish daily since he was six, he may have found himself getting very rusty. Even if they spoke Polish in the family home, he wouldn't have had much opportunity since leaving home.
    This might be true and very commendable to learn to speak the language of your birth fluently...but not sure how it is justifiable to charge the public purse for this. I don't see how it is essential to his ability to be an MP.
    According to the Times, it is part of an obscure parliamentary scheme for language lessons so that bit's legit. There was a discussion of Kawczynski's costs on the last thread.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    malcolmg said:

    @stodge @Stocky

    Forget restrictions. The international evidence suggests they don’t work, the public have got the memo that Omicron is mild, and support for lockdowns and masking is sliding away.

    The policy challenge should now be around the seven day isolation penalty, which is crippling services and private businesses. We have millions sitting at home with nothing much wrong with them.

    Three days test and release seems a sensible compromise to me.

    I was still testing positive after 8 days
    They advise you not to test for 90 days because of the possibility of false positives. It's unclear whether this includes LFTs but a bit of Google research found some govt advice to care home owners which advised that their staff shouldn't have to test within 90 days of infection and that included LFTs.
    But the advice now is 2 negative tests on day 6 and 7 and you are free. Are you supposed to have PCR?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,920
    HYUFD said:

    The royalists are at the don't let rotten Andy spoil our barrel of superb apples stage.



    Pretty sure that HMQ is the only obstacle stopping 'the Firm' indulging in one of its periodic acts of self preservation by leaving the colonel of the Grenadier Guards to hang out to dry.

    Not really an accurate article given even Harry and his children with Meghan are now higher in the line of succession than Prince Andrew.

    Andrew is now only 9th in line to the throne, he is far less relevant to the future of the monarchy than he was in 1980 when he was 2nd in line behind Charles before William and Harry and their children were born
    Mm. But the point about monarchy is that we don't get to choose. If things had turned out slightly differently, we'd now have King Andrew I, and we would have to suck it up.

    That's why the system is ridiculous.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    malcolmg said:

    The royalists are at the don't let rotten Andy spoil our barrel of superb apples stage.



    Pretty sure that HMQ is the only obstacle stopping 'the Firm' indulging in one of its periodic acts of self preservation by leaving the colonel of the Grenadier Guards to hang out to dry.

    They will bring in a law that makes him immune, these parasites always look after themselves.
    Surely it's not clear there is evidence of an offence being committed. She was 17 at the time and they would have to show he was aware she was trafficked, or was a minor engaging in prostitution.
    Dunno how relevant that is. He is being sued for assault not prosecuted for anything

    Will be rivetting to see the Epstein release agreement he says gets him off the hook. Due today apparently.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited January 3

    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Odd story - seemingly Daniel Kawczynski has had state subsidised polish lessons. I'm trying to work out
    i) Is it true.
    ii) Why on earth they would be a state subsidised expense.
    iii) Can't he speak it already ?

    Plenty of people can't speak (very well) the language of their minority origin.
    He grew up in Poland until he was 6 and has previously described himself as fluent in the language.
    He is a Tory, why would anyone expect he was not be robbing the public
    If he hasn't spoken Polish daily since he was six, he may have found himself getting very rusty. Even if they spoke Polish in the family home, he wouldn't have had much opportunity since leaving home.
    This might be true and very commendable to learn to speak the language of your birth fluently...but not sure how it is justifiable to charge the public purse for this. I don't see how it is essential to his ability to be an MP.
    According to the Times, it is part of an obscure parliamentary scheme for language lessons so that bit's legit. There was a discussion of Kawczynski's costs on the last thread.
    You would hope if this is the case, there would be an upper bound of the cost on any such scheme.

    I once worked for a company that had a very generous scheme that allowed you to claim for personal development i.e. it could be any sort of random night school course from basket weaving to language courses, but there was a cap on how much you could claim every year, so you couldn't a) just get your mate to charge £100 / hr to teach you car mechanics and b) you couldn't just sign up for a different class every night of the week.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    ydoethur said:

    It would appear that the DfE did not mean tests should be taken 'before' rejoining lessons, but rather, 'when returning to school.'

    Which is completely different, and is what they said back in November.

    So why have they reannounced it today and got it completely wrong?

    Because they are totally fucking stupid and unfit to run a village fete.

    Somebody please just lock them up in a lunatic asylum where they belong.

    Running a village fete is not easy, as anyone who has done will confirm. The back-biting, personal hostility and general spite could reasonably be compared with Westminster.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Watched Don't Look Up last night. It is properly entertaining, and a clever premise - comet as allegory for climate change. And there are some brilliant moments, especially at the start, when the astronomers encounter outrageous NORMALCY BIAS

    But then it becomes uneven in tone, sometimes low farce, sometimes witty comedy, sometimes sentimental drama, and they jar, and the parochial Americanism is tedious, especially the laboured, lazy assaults on Trumpism and silly white people. Yes yes yes we know they are awful but it's such a crappy obvious target, and it is annoying and boring.

    It's a film that wants to be Doctor Strangelove for global warming but lacks the Southern/Kubrick Strangelove script - and it lacks Peter Sellers - one star to bring together a stellar cast. Something of a missed opportunity. Coulda been a masterpiece

    I watched Strangelove for the first time a couple of days ago. Not as funny as I thought it would be - admittedly not trying to be merely funny - but Sellers not nearly as good in any of those roles as he is as Clouseau, and the Strangelove character's mein fuhrer and involuntary salutes stuff is surely equally lazy?
    Perhaps, but Strangelove will live on as iconic cinema, and Don't Look Up will not. Yet it could have. Frustrating

    I read a critique on Rotten Tomatoes which said it should have been directed by Armando Iannuci. Which seems bang on. If he could have brought the brilliant satirical tone of Death of Stalin to this idea, then wow

    The politics should have been much more layered and nuanced. Attack the liberals as well, for worrrying more about animals than humans, for obsessing about gender during the apocalypse

    Imagine if they'd tried that: subtly satirise everyone. Instead they went for an all out one-way assault on - FFS - Donald Trump. Played by the secular saint of Woke Liberal Hollywood, Meryl Streep

    Hollywood has lost its way, but the movie also shows it still has ideas and energy, at least
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617

    pigeon said:

    moonshine said:

    When do we expect the Work From Home If You Can to be lifted?

    I am thinking end of Jan? Need to get a cheapo motor for station runs before it’s lifted.

    I don't think that any of the relatively modest restrictions we've got will be lifted until it is obvious both that the case wave has peaked and that the hospitals are over the worst of it (exception: the self-isolation rules might be reviewed again if they're preventing society from continuing to function.) That'd put us some distance into February at least. It's all about optics, of course: lifting any of the rules before that would make it look as if the Government wasn't taking the situation seriously and didn't care about the suffering of the NHS or the patients, even if the rules themselves were demonstrably useless.
    Which is the big problem with bringing in rules without evidence: they tend to hang around even though they are useless.

    So theatregoers and fashion shopping trips will remain under masks until February? I hope you are wrong, but I fear you could be right.
    OTOH, think Plan B has a sunset clause on 26 Jan. Would require a fresh vote and continued Labour C&S. Let’s see where we are on the data.
    This is nothing more than a half-educated guess on my part, but I suspect that the end of January may coincide with the peak of hospital admissions and that the headline figures for those will be horrendous (the large majority of them will be incidental admissions, but that fine distinction won't make it through the media filter - only horrified screaming about 6k-7k patients a day.) The Government should have no trouble ramming through an extension under those circumstances.

    How long the extension may last for, and whether the rules will remain in force for all of it or be repealed early, is a different matter.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,081

    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Odd story - seemingly Daniel Kawczynski has had state subsidised polish lessons. I'm trying to work out
    i) Is it true.
    ii) Why on earth they would be a state subsidised expense.
    iii) Can't he speak it already ?

    Plenty of people can't speak (very well) the language of their minority origin.
    He grew up in Poland until he was 6 and has previously described himself as fluent in the language.
    He is a Tory, why would anyone expect he was not be robbing the public
    If he hasn't spoken Polish daily since he was six, he may have found himself getting very rusty. Even if they spoke Polish in the family home, he wouldn't have had much opportunity since leaving home.
    He claimed £22k in language learning expenses. The best place to learn Polish in the UK is probably SSEES. They have six courses from beginner to Higher Advanced Plus: https://www.ucl.ac.uk/ssees/evening-courses/polish Each course costs £820. For less than £5k, you could do all six courses. Yet Kawczynski, who grew up speaking Polish, who described himself as fluent in the language, needed £22k to brush up?
    MPs in general seem to think it is reasonable to spend much more on stuff than us ordinary mortals would dream of, and then claim it back on expenses.

    I always thought second home expenses should be limited to the cost of running, say, a modest 2 bed flat. If they want a big family home they can fund it out of their own resources.

    But yes I was spending £300 a term for online Russian lessons during lockdown and I am sure he could have got a much better deal with an online tutor living in Poland, for example.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    edited January 3

    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Odd story - seemingly Daniel Kawczynski has had state subsidised polish lessons. I'm trying to work out
    i) Is it true.
    ii) Why on earth they would be a state subsidised expense.
    iii) Can't he speak it already ?

    Plenty of people can't speak (very well) the language of their minority origin.
    He grew up in Poland until he was 6 and has previously described himself as fluent in the language.
    He is a Tory, why would anyone expect he was not be robbing the public
    If he hasn't spoken Polish daily since he was six, he may have found himself getting very rusty. Even if they spoke Polish in the family home, he wouldn't have had much opportunity since leaving home.
    This might be true and very commendable to learn to speak the language of your birth fluently...but not sure how it is justifiable to charge the public purse for this. I don't see how it is essential to his ability to be an MP.
    According to the Times, it is part of an obscure parliamentary scheme for language lessons so that bit's legit. There was a discussion of Kawczynski's costs on the last thread.
    You would hope if this is the case, there would be an upper bound of the cost on any such scheme.

    I once worked for a company that had a very generous scheme that allowed you to claim for personal development i.e. it could be any sort of random night school course from basket weaving to language courses, but there was a cap on how much you could claim every year, so you couldn't a) just get your mate to charge £100 / hr to teach you car mechanics and b) you couldn't just sign up for a different class every night of the week.
    For £22k he could have had a qualified English teacher from Poland accompany him everywhere he went for a year.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    HYUFD said:

    The royalists are at the don't let rotten Andy spoil our barrel of superb apples stage.



    Pretty sure that HMQ is the only obstacle stopping 'the Firm' indulging in one of its periodic acts of self preservation by leaving the colonel of the Grenadier Guards to hang out to dry.

    Not really an accurate article given even Harry and his children with Meghan are now higher in the line of succession than Prince Andrew.

    Andrew is now only 9th in line to the throne, he is far less relevant to the future of the monarchy than he was in 1980 when he was 2nd in line behind Charles before William and Harry and their children were born
    Mm. But the point about monarchy is that we don't get to choose. If things had turned out slightly differently, we'd now have King Andrew I, and we would have to suck it up.

    That's why the system is ridiculous.
    Whereas we could have elected a president who would never go near Epstein? I doubt the counterfactual that Andrew as king would have been allowed even to meet him. It is precisely because he is peripheral that he could get involved. Seriously, the fault on the part of Trump and Clinton is a million times more grave than anything Andrew has done, much as I dislike him. This is all about power corrupting, whether it's royal or presidential power.

    I assume you aren't in favour of pinning stuff Piers does, onto Jeremy?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,920
    Pulpstar said:

    Odd story - seemingly Daniel Kawczynski has had state subsidised polish lessons. I'm trying to work out
    i) Is it true.
    ii) Why on earth they would be a state subsidised expense.
    iii) Can't he speak it already ?

    When I was on the European Affairs Select Committee, I asked if I could subscribe on expenses to a weekly Danish newspaper to contribute the Scandinavian viewpoint on current developments, though I admitted I'd enjoy it too. It was turned down as a legitimate expense: the official said, "You'd have probably got it if you hadn't admitted you'd enjoy it."

    The same department later turned out to be approving giant TVs and luxury rugs. All these systems have an element of personal judgement, I suppose.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,681
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT @Carnyx


    Carnyx said:

    » show previous quotes
    Hello Malky. It is indeed dreich and I don't have Covid! Edit: weather's grey enough in itself without that as well, I mean ...

    Hello Carnyx, yes but buds are already out, will soon be spring
    Flag Quote · Off Topic Like

    We have primroses out. Snowdrops are almost out.

    Fat buds on many things.
    You do have an advantage of 500 miles or so though. You will be sunbathing soon. Sounds very pleasant, we will have snowdrops out soon as well.
    PS: All the best for 2022, did not see you on here as much in 20221.
    Good wishes to you and your good lady, malc. Been rather busy lately with a number of projects, one of which is a children's/inner child animation based in London and another an interesting opportunity with a couple of guys in your neck of the woods. Look forward to finding some time this year to butt heads though!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Leon said:

    Watched Don't Look Up last night. It is properly entertaining, and a clever premise - comet as allegory for climate change. And there are some brilliant moments, especially at the start, when the astronomers encounter outrageous NORMALCY BIAS

    But then it becomes uneven in tone, sometimes low farce, sometimes witty comedy, sometimes sentimental drama, and they jar, and the parochial Americanism is tedious, especially the laboured, lazy assaults on Trumpism and silly white people. Yes yes yes we know they are awful but it's such a crappy obvious target, and it is annoying and boring.

    It's a film that wants to be Doctor Strangelove for global warming but lacks the Southern/Kubrick Strangelove script - and it lacks Peter Sellers - one star to bring together a stellar cast. Something of a missed opportunity. Coulda been a masterpiece




    For all the talk among the "right on" lefty comedians that one should only punch up and speak truth to power, it does seem thick (British / American) white working class (Brexit / Trump voter) have become the go to punch line of lazy joke in the way the "thick" Irish were at one point for right wing comedians.
    Yes, exactly. Laughing at Maga hat wearers is like laughing at Mother in Law Jokes in the 70s. Pathetically feeble comedy

    If you have to do it find a new and stealthy way, at least. The racist old school pilot was cringeworthy
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited January 3

    Pulpstar said:

    Odd story - seemingly Daniel Kawczynski has had state subsidised polish lessons. I'm trying to work out
    i) Is it true.
    ii) Why on earth they would be a state subsidised expense.
    iii) Can't he speak it already ?

    When I was on the European Affairs Select Committee, I asked if I could subscribe on expenses to a weekly Danish newspaper to contribute the Scandinavian viewpoint on current developments, though I admitted I'd enjoy it too. It was turned down as a legitimate expense: the official said, "You'd have probably got it if you hadn't admitted you'd enjoy it."

    The same department later turned out to be approving giant TVs and luxury rugs. All these systems have an element of personal judgement, I suppose.
    For what its worth, I think expensing high brow foreign language newspapers / magazines when in such a position seems reasonable.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Watched Don't Look Up last night. It is properly entertaining, and a clever premise - comet as allegory for climate change. And there are some brilliant moments, especially at the start, when the astronomers encounter outrageous NORMALCY BIAS

    But then it becomes uneven in tone, sometimes low farce, sometimes witty comedy, sometimes sentimental drama, and they jar, and the parochial Americanism is tedious, especially the laboured, lazy assaults on Trumpism and silly white people. Yes yes yes we know they are awful but it's such a crappy obvious target, and it is annoying and boring.

    It's a film that wants to be Doctor Strangelove for global warming but lacks the Southern/Kubrick Strangelove script - and it lacks Peter Sellers - one star to bring together a stellar cast. Something of a missed opportunity. Coulda been a masterpiece

    I watched Strangelove for the first time a couple of days ago. Not as funny as I thought it would be - admittedly not trying to be merely funny - but Sellers not nearly as good in any of those roles as he is as Clouseau, and the Strangelove character's mein fuhrer and involuntary salutes stuff is surely equally lazy?
    Perhaps, but Strangelove will live on as iconic cinema, and Don't Look Up will not. Yet it could have. Frustrating

    I read a critique on Rotten Tomatoes which said it should have been directed by Armando Iannuci. Which seems bang on. If he could have brought the brilliant satirical tone of Death of Stalin to this idea, then wow

    The politics should have been much more layered and nuanced. Attack the liberals as well, for worrrying more about animals than humans, for obsessing about gender during the apocalypse

    Imagine if they'd tried that: subtly satirise everyone. Instead they went for an all out one-way assault on - FFS - Donald Trump. Played by the secular saint of Woke Liberal Hollywood, Meryl Streep

    Hollywood has lost its way, but the movie also shows it still has ideas and energy, at least
    Trouble with that is I am watching Veep (dir Iannuci, A) for exactly that reason and it isn't really doing much for me. Pale imitation of Stalin/Thick.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 35,025

    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Odd story - seemingly Daniel Kawczynski has had state subsidised polish lessons. I'm trying to work out
    i) Is it true.
    ii) Why on earth they would be a state subsidised expense.
    iii) Can't he speak it already ?

    Plenty of people can't speak (very well) the language of their minority origin.
    He grew up in Poland until he was 6 and has previously described himself as fluent in the language.
    He is a Tory, why would anyone expect he was not be robbing the public
    If he hasn't spoken Polish daily since he was six, he may have found himself getting very rusty. Even if they spoke Polish in the family home, he wouldn't have had much opportunity since leaving home.
    John, we did not elect him to the Polish parliament , if he cannot remember his native language he should pay for his own lessons, creep of the first order.
This discussion has been closed.