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Keeping Score: My 2021 Roundup – politicalbetting.com
Keeping Score: My 2021 Roundup – politicalbetting.com
As regular readers will know, I’m very much a disciple of Philip Tetlock and his Superforecasting approach. Forecasting is hard, and human beings are bad at it. But we can get better and more clear-eyed about the future by following a proper approach.
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Sure it will be better than the last 2. Would be going some tbf.
There are fireworks after all in London.
ETA Big Ben is still wrapped in scaffolding.
Please may 2022 be good. Come on it would be a nice surprise.
I think all can give thanks that at the end of 2021 absolutely everyone knows how to pronounce Ghislaine.
Edit: wp Quincel.
So good, looking back it seems obvious. But was unlikely at the time. All the clues were there though.
The best kind of bet.
Switched to Jools Holland on BBC2 and this is much, much better. No idea why that crap was on "one" and this is on the second channel.
Spent NYE in my friend's glorified shed. Wonderfully, around 30 other people were there too. I'll never take such frivolities for granted again. Pushed our luck and our daughters saw the NY in too - in retrospect, it was 45 minutes over budget for our 7 year old, though the older two (10 and 11) had a lovely time.
In the spirit of the header, best bets of the year were anything to do with the C&A by-election, particularly Tories sub 35%. Which was always on the cards due to the number of people standing.
I'd like to think of something suitably celebratory and valedictory but am far far, far too drunk. Goodnight all and happy 2022.
As usual, we didn't stay up until midnight.
It was a surprise, but a pleasant one to be sure, that I actually nudged into the green for the 2021 F1 season. A combination of poor judgement and rotten luck made that seems highly improbable early on.
But then, 2020 was riddled with flukes and good judgement, so these things do vary.
As last year, top resolution is to see the morning of Jan 1st 2023! At least!
And, for those who recall my beef of a few days ago, the missing bag of presents has turned up!
So they will be 'formally' distributed on Sunday morning! (They're all from one household and for another).
Spent NYE day out in Oxford for the panto and lunch. Pleased to report the panto was almost completely full but with all adults wearing masks. Oxford itself seemed very busy. Spent the evening at a friend's party. Lots of people there but all took LFTs beforehand which picked up on one Covid case. All my 3 kids made it to midnight including the 4yo who seemed to have more energy than anyone! It did feel slightly strange to have a mostly normal NYE despite the very large number of Covid cases.
I am optimistic that the current Covid wave will be the final one. So many people are being exposed to it that many will develop immunity. I know I was exposed to Omicron on Boxing Day at my sister in law's but so far we have all avoided getting it (we all previously had Delta and are jabbed up).
I wish everyone on here a good 2022. Let us all hope we can return to discussing politics rather than lockdowns!
As a spectator you are barely complicit
Happy New Year to everyone!
Hopefully we'll see a new PM before 2022 is done...
https://www.pinterest.se/pin/396176098449869305/
Gott nytt år!
A guid New Year to ane an' a'
An' mony may ye see,
An' during a' the years to come,
O happy may ye be.
And happy new year everyone/guid new year ane an a/Bliadhna Mhath Ùr*
*pronunciation here if needed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ATU5uJiDE7g&t=1s
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ensign_of_the_Russian_Navy
Great for your party and mine.
Appalling for our countries.
Then we can move briskly on and shift the focus of performative pedantry onto the question of whether 'kids' or 'guys' is the better translation for 'ребята'.
And it makes sense to let Boris own as much of the blame for it as possible.
https://weaponsandwarfare.com/2017/07/11/scots-in-russian-naval-service/amp/
https://www.undiscoveredscotland.co.uk/usbiography/j/johnpauljones.html
And the Order of St Andrew ranks above the Order of St George.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_St._Andrew
The missing bit is how much he staked on each outcome. Putting more on winners and less on losers is as important as having fewer losers.
Let's hope 2022 is better than 2021. Tories polling 20 points behind will help make this year better of course!
A good Belizean flag?
A good Antiguan flag?
A good English flag?
I suppose so. At a pinch. But only if you also acknowledge the UN flag as your proud birthright.
Interesting piece; for instance some of the yoga industry is closing down rather than 'operate under Aotearoa’s “traffic light” system, which requires teachers and students alike to be double vaccinated.'
But not all gloom: a happy ending, modern equivalent of Cromwell praising the Lord but keeping the powder dry:
'Eventually science, and some helpful words from her brother overseas, brought her over the line. With help from her meditation teacher doing a sermon on radical acceptance over the car speakers, she got her vaccine at a drive through clinic in South Auckland.
“I took my beads that I got in Utah that were cedar berries for protective energy and I was just saying to myself, ‘I’m divinely protected’,” said Griffen.
“And I got the Pfizer protection too, because I believe in that as well.”'
http://nen.press/2015/03/08/edinburgh-flies-the-flag-to-mark-commonwealth-day/
I remember when the Labour-run Edinburgh city council permanently flew lots of Saltires, Union flags and EU flags all along Princes St. I look forward to when two of those are our legitimate flags, and one is consigned to history.
Easy peasy lemon squeezy. Tory majority governments on a minority vote consigned to history.
The mathematical method that could offer a fairer way to vote from TheEconomist https://www.economist.com/christmas-specials/2021/12/18/the-mathematical-method-that-could-offer-a-fairer-way-to-vote
https://www.economist.com/QuadraticPoll
My predictions for the New Year? Haven't a clue. Anything could happen and probably will.
Heja Finland! 🇫🇮
I’m intrigued by your new profile picture. The lion rampant taking the central role; two St Georges, an Irish harp and a Saltire. Bugger the taffs?
It is feasible, but I suspect that wiser Tory heads will absolutely dread the vicious civil war which will ensue when the Reign of the Clown is over.
It is starting to look like a Lose-Lose situation for Tory strategists. There are vanishingly few good options left.
My advice, which will of course be comprehensively dismissed, is ditch Johnson immediately and install Truss. It’s a huge gamble, but the only trump card I can see in their extraordinarily poor hand.
Ignore - Blanche L got it ...
Morning, it's interesting to note which countries in Europe still have conscription.
Eastern Edge Countries, Scandinavia, Greece, Turkey, Austria and Switzerland. May have missed a couple.
Meeks on good form - not especially long, just lucid:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-seven-year-itch-the-new-political-challenge-for-brexit-f5a36b080851
Heck if JRM got into the last 2 I suspect he would win, equally so would Steve Baker were he to make the final 2.
Secondly, a central driver of Brexit, fixing immigration, is conspicuously falling apart. [...] Right now the government is failing and is palpably out of ideas as to what to do. The best it has come up with, setting up detention centres in places like Albania, has been officially denied in every country so far mentioned."
Who got the CBE? Shamefully it seems that I have been overlooked again. Perhaps supporting historical regicide went against me 🤔
Paging as usual @Malky @Stodge (both not afraid at times to post tips) and anyone who wants to share love of the sport this day.
I appreciate not every gambler loves sharing, and sharing publicly. I suspect though some people reading PB may be betting horse racing regular particularly the Saturday I will be placing bets today and means a degree of “due diligence” on my choices I don’t mind sharing what led to my decision 🙂
I tend to go hurdles, as is I think large risk to any horse getting up and landing over the bigger fences. Especially last week, after my homework to find horses in a good place at business end of race so many fell in the first few fences which is a frustrating thing to feel.
MoonRabbits tips for today.
1:25 CHELTENHAM - Come On Teddy
Staying power and has won a chase on officially soft. And someone has to spoil L'Homme Presse form book some point.
2:35 CHELTENHAM - Dolphin Square
Right distance, right going, right form. Right for my long shot tip from open looking race.
2:50 MUSSELBURGH - Amour De Nuit
Off to Scotland for a stone cold sober (NAP) the pick of the five runners has won over fences at this distance.
3:10 CHELTENHAM - Brewin'upastorm
Classy horse with plenty of wins over fences and hurdles including last time out.
Best of luck everyone. Take care and enjoy ongoing holidays!