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Poll suggests that the LAB lead would be just 3% with PM Sunak – politicalbetting.com

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  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    COVID: More than 500 children admitted to hospital with coronavirus in England in week to Boxing Day

    A total of 512 children were admitted to hospital with COVID in England in the week leading up to Boxing Day, figures have revealed.

    The numbers, released on the government's coronavirus dashboard, also show that 59 children under five were admitted to hospital between Christmas Day and Boxing Day alone.

    A further 50 children in the same age bracket were admitted in the 24 hours prior.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-more-than-500-children-admitted-to-hospital-with-coronavirus-in-england-in-week-to-boxing-day-12505306

    This is where we need to know with or because of....
    I put the up every day... and then someone "breaks the news".... sigh....

    image
    It's almost as if someone dares to post on here without reading every other post on the thread first. Outrageous! ;-)
    Farmer Tupac to the red courtesy phone, Farmer Tupac to the red courtesy phone.....
    What?

    I was startled by CHB's post, because I look at but don't particularly understand graphs. I would concede that that's because I am stupid, except that I am about 4 SDs out to the right on the IQ bell curve. So, lovely work with the graphics, but a purely verbal commentary would help, and relieve you of the obligation to post incomprehensible sarkiness like this.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,155
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not to turn this into a love-in with @HYUFD but at least he doesn't pretend to not be anything other than a Tory unlike some others who seem to spend their whole time trying to pretend they're not, or that they're just about to quit the party for the third time this week...

    Anyway, I just thought @HYUFD deserved some support, I really wish people would stop jumping on him. We don't hear a lot about him beyond his political POV (something which I respect) but there is somebody behind that keyboard and it can't be easy to have sometimes a lot of abuse coming your way.

    I'm leaving this topic to one side, I have a delicious bolognese that is on the menu for this evening

    Thanks, of course your first paragraph certainly does not apply to BigG at all, no connection whatsoever....
    It cannot apply to me as I have already quit the party and demanded from my mp that he seeks the replacement of Boris
    If I got a pound for the amount of times you have said you have quit the party and will not vote for it again, then come back and done so, I would be a millionaire
    And then you'd almost be able to pay for your own tank force...
    To be fair, Carson’s Ulster Volunteers had its own Air Force and tanks, although that was funded by public subscription rather than personally
    Are you sure?

    AFAIK the UVs didn't have their own tanks. Only the UKG did postwar unless you are suggesting that the UKG was, erm, bent. And nobody had them pre-1916.

    Don't recall armoured cars either. They did have unarmoured cars carring medium machine guns -

    https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-a6a-1bv_Za4/TrxYuJPtFpI/AAAAAAAAC3s/D8_N92l9rwo/s1600/Ford-T-MG-Carrier-Ulster-Volunteers.jpg
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Friend of a very close friend committed suicide this week. 28 years old. A young woman, in France, despairing of ever having a life again, because of Covid

    I do not seek personal sympathy. I never knew her (tho she was very close to MY friend, as I say)

    Just illustrating that, even tho the epidemic seems to ebb in some ways, it is quietly doing some devastating damage to mental health, everywhere. By all accounts this woman was not the suicidal type beforehand, but prolonged separation from friends, family, and future did her in

    RIP

    Sorry to hear that Leon. One of my wife’s co workers lost her husband last year for the same reason.
    I reckon the ill-effects on mental health, from Covid, could become a bigger story than the physical effects of ill-health, quite soon. And they will ripple down the years, even the decades, in ways we do not know, but we can predict they will often be very sad.

    A lot of damaged kids, for a start
    Whilst acknowledging that for some the effects of lockdown have been literally tragic, I'd caution about assuming too much will 'ripple down the years'.

    Humans are incredibly resilient overall. Look at how people recovered after the deprivations of WW2.
    Yeah, except for the 85m who died outright, and the god knows how many who survived but were destroyed forever after from a mental health pov. Survivorship bias is puzzlingly hard to avoid.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704
    pigeon said:

    Taz said:
    Grimly satisfying. Each blow struck against the arguments of the lockdown ultras is one tiny step closer to the end of this nightmare.
    Yet the media still defer to them as experts inspite of their many many similar statements. Not just gurdasani but others too.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Charles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Not to turn this into a love-in with @HYUFD but at least he doesn't pretend to not be anything other than a Tory unlike some others who seem to spend their whole time trying to pretend they're not, or that they're just about to quit the party for the third time this week...

    Anyway, I just thought @HYUFD deserved some support, I really wish people would stop jumping on him. We don't hear a lot about him beyond his political POV (something which I respect) but there is somebody behind that keyboard and it can't be easy to have sometimes a lot of abuse coming your way.

    I'm leaving this topic to one side, I have a delicious bolognese that is on the menu for this evening

    Yes, I have more respect for the consistent tribalism of HYUFD TBH than the behaviour of a lot of other PB commentators. I find his loyalty to Johnson/the Tories quite admirable in a funny way TBH. He is taking the rough with the smooth. I find a lot of so called centre/centre right commentators on Politicalbetting rather hypocritical and irritating TBH.

    Most of his predictions/analysis since 2019 has been pretty reasonable on GB politics at least even he talks nonsense about some other countries like Germany.

    Hi Gary, hope you are keeping well.

    HYUFD is one of the few people here to not have underestimated Starmer from the day he was elected. That has to mean something.
    Underestimated Starmer? Are you selling some sort of story that Boris has fallen into SKS's cunning trap? All Starmer has done is maintain a constant position at 87 in the charts, while Johnson has plummeted from No 1 to no 100. He had one good PMQ and that's it.
    That’s a better analogy than your apartment block one. I never quite understood what you were aiming at (apart from the pavement, obviously)
    I thought the penthouse suite analogy was one of my all time peaks, but there you go.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Taz said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    I live in a red wall seat and Labour offer me nothing. Correct Horse Battery was simply on another planet saying New Labour did more for people like me between 1997 and 2010 really? Free movement reducing wages in return for more sure start buildings the hall mark of New Labour between 1997 and 2010. What is Starmers offer? Vote Labour get more free movement?

    I assume that wages rose a tad. Poverty fell, schools and hospitals rebuilt etc etc. I know it wasn't enough but "nothing" just demonstrates that you are of the Don't Look Up mentality ignoring what is in front of you.
    Wages may have rose a tad and relative poverty may have fallen but in comparison to the south and London it was negligible. The gap accelerated. Hospitals and schools rebuilt. All PFI which we will be paying for years. It’s merely robbing Peter to pay Paul.
    Wages grew a lot - the days of £2.20 an hour are the past. Absolute grinding poverty fell away. And the hospitals and schools that were literally crumbling away needed replacing - its not as if borrowing to do so was on the agenda. So what was the alternative?

    I do agree that the economy is heavily imbalanced to the SE. The problem is that nobody is offering a solution. The Tories are demonstrating that "levelling up" doesn't really extend beyond window dressing and a slogan. Brexit has made it worse not better for manufacturing. So what else is there?

    The sad reality is that in England there seems to be no idea - none at all - about how to fix the structural problems. As an advocate for federalism and regionalism I can see how it could be done, but neither option for government is interested so the decline will continue.
    FWIW for the last 10 years we have been pursuing regional development through partnering with museums and local councils in Blackburn, Macclesfield, Hartlepool, Sheffield, Cornwall, Walthamstow and other places. Persuading local politicians to see them as income and footfall generators to help revive town centres rather than a cost centre.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Taz said:



    It wasn’t just the 1980s dismantling of manufacturing. Look what happened to manufacturing as a share of GDP and employment from 97-2010. New labour did little to arrest the decline and, at least, Osborne recognised we needed a manufacturing base. His reforms were insignificant and gave the north east a grade a plank as a metro mayor. I agree neither party has any solutions and the point I’m making is labour needs to get one rather than just saying ‘vote for us, we’re not Tories’ while holding these communities in a barely disguised contempt.

    I don't think that's actually true of many in Labour - we got the message when the wall crumbled. I agree that we need to have some concrete proposals to cinsder rather than just rely on not being Tories. Those will come, just as nationally, but mid-pandemic two years from thre election isn't the time to make them. Suspend judgement for now?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,089
    Taz said:

    pigeon said:

    Taz said:
    Grimly satisfying. Each blow struck against the arguments of the lockdown ultras is one tiny step closer to the end of this nightmare.
    Yet the media still defer to them as experts inspite of their many many similar statements. Not just gurdasani but others too.
    On the one hand, they'll want to represent a range of views. On the other, the temptation to go straight to the iSAGE types at the first sign of trouble must be enormous.

    Catastrophism = clicks.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    IshmaelZ said:

    COVID: More than 500 children admitted to hospital with coronavirus in England in week to Boxing Day

    A total of 512 children were admitted to hospital with COVID in England in the week leading up to Boxing Day, figures have revealed.

    The numbers, released on the government's coronavirus dashboard, also show that 59 children under five were admitted to hospital between Christmas Day and Boxing Day alone.

    A further 50 children in the same age bracket were admitted in the 24 hours prior.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-more-than-500-children-admitted-to-hospital-with-coronavirus-in-england-in-week-to-boxing-day-12505306

    This is where we need to know with or because of....
    I put the up every day... and then someone "breaks the news".... sigh....

    image
    It's almost as if someone dares to post on here without reading every other post on the thread first. Outrageous! ;-)
    Farmer Tupac to the red courtesy phone, Farmer Tupac to the red courtesy phone.....
    What?

    I was startled by CHB's post, because I look at but don't particularly understand graphs. I would concede that that's because I am stupid, except that I am about 4 SDs out to the right on the IQ bell curve. So, lovely work with the graphics, but a purely verbal commentary would help, and relieve you of the obligation to post incomprehensible sarkiness like this.
    Young people today. Having no idea who Farmer Tupac was... his dedication to PB was such as to make Mike Smithson look like an occasional.....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,284
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Friend of a very close friend committed suicide this week. 28 years old. A young woman, in France, despairing of ever having a life again, because of Covid

    I do not seek personal sympathy. I never knew her (tho she was very close to MY friend, as I say)

    Just illustrating that, even tho the epidemic seems to ebb in some ways, it is quietly doing some devastating damage to mental health, everywhere. By all accounts this woman was not the suicidal type beforehand, but prolonged separation from friends, family, and future did her in

    RIP

    Sorry to hear that Leon. One of my wife’s co workers lost her husband last year for the same reason.
    I reckon the ill-effects on mental health, from Covid, could become a bigger story than the physical effects of ill-health, quite soon. And they will ripple down the years, even the decades, in ways we do not know, but we can predict they will often be very sad.

    A lot of damaged kids, for a start
    Whilst acknowledging that for some the effects of lockdown have been literally tragic, I'd caution about assuming too much will 'ripple down the years'.

    Humans are incredibly resilient overall. Look at how people recovered after the deprivations of WW2.
    You can’t compare a plague to a war. Plagues are worse. Plagues just bring a lot of purposeless suffering and terrible isolation, there is no no uplifting heroism or victory. Merely a slow, bitter end

    Schools and pubs didn’t shut in WW2, for example

    That said, if I had to compare Covid to any war it would be World War One, the intense futility, the sense of idiotic waste

    And I do think the Great War ramified down the ages, generally in grisly ways (tho it can be argued that ultimately it broke ossified class structures in the West, etc)
    WW1 was immediately followed by the Spanish Flu pandemic of course so a double whammy.

    I'd argue that in WW2 the threat of bombs falling nightly, conscription, families torn apart, young children evacuated, rationing, etc. etc. was worse than this pandemic by a long chalk for most.

    Western civilisation, an may the human species as a whole, has become much softer in recent decades. I don't say that necessarily a bad thing, indeed it may well be a very good thing if we are less cruel and more caring.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    pigeon said:

    Taz said:
    Grimly satisfying. Each blow struck against the arguments of the lockdown ultras is one tiny step closer to the end of this nightmare.
    You really are a complete, entire and utter fing cckskr. It isn't about what hebephrenic dweebs like you think is going to happen, it is about what actually happens, and we don't know what will happen, until it does. How hard is it to understand that if a future narrative is simple enough for someone as stupid as you to understand, it is almost certainly also too simple to be true? The nightmare is not about "lockdown ultras", it is about the wholly unpredictable evolution of a virus.

    I am now going to watch the second half of Don't Look Up. I am worried that if I stayed on PB I might find myself being ruder to you than is strictly necessary.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,284
    edited December 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Friend of a very close friend committed suicide this week. 28 years old. A young woman, in France, despairing of ever having a life again, because of Covid

    I do not seek personal sympathy. I never knew her (tho she was very close to MY friend, as I say)

    Just illustrating that, even tho the epidemic seems to ebb in some ways, it is quietly doing some devastating damage to mental health, everywhere. By all accounts this woman was not the suicidal type beforehand, but prolonged separation from friends, family, and future did her in

    RIP

    Sorry to hear that Leon. One of my wife’s co workers lost her husband last year for the same reason.
    I reckon the ill-effects on mental health, from Covid, could become a bigger story than the physical effects of ill-health, quite soon. And they will ripple down the years, even the decades, in ways we do not know, but we can predict they will often be very sad.

    A lot of damaged kids, for a start
    Whilst acknowledging that for some the effects of lockdown have been literally tragic, I'd caution about assuming too much will 'ripple down the years'.

    Humans are incredibly resilient overall. Look at how people recovered after the deprivations of WW2.
    Yeah, except for the 85m who died outright, and the god knows how many who survived but were destroyed forever after from a mental health pov. Survivorship bias is puzzlingly hard to avoid.
    Of course. The 85m who died evidence my point that WW2 was a much larger catastrophe than this pandemic. But by and large people who survived were clearly not 'destroyed forever' by mental health issues - civilisation and society recovered and carried on thriving.

    Likewise, I do not expect Covid to cast a shadow that ropples down the years. It will leave a cultural mark of course but the vast majority will, whilst not forgetting, move on.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    COVID: More than 500 children admitted to hospital with coronavirus in England in week to Boxing Day

    A total of 512 children were admitted to hospital with COVID in England in the week leading up to Boxing Day, figures have revealed.

    The numbers, released on the government's coronavirus dashboard, also show that 59 children under five were admitted to hospital between Christmas Day and Boxing Day alone.

    A further 50 children in the same age bracket were admitted in the 24 hours prior.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-more-than-500-children-admitted-to-hospital-with-coronavirus-in-england-in-week-to-boxing-day-12505306

    This is where we need to know with or because of....
    I put the up every day... and then someone "breaks the news".... sigh....

    image
    It's almost as if someone dares to post on here without reading every other post on the thread first. Outrageous! ;-)
    Farmer Tupac to the red courtesy phone, Farmer Tupac to the red courtesy phone.....
    Sorry - you've lost me there.
    Framer Tupac (aka "tim") formerly of this parish, had read every single posting in every single thread on PB since it began. And commented on them.....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Friend of a very close friend committed suicide this week. 28 years old. A young woman, in France, despairing of ever having a life again, because of Covid

    I do not seek personal sympathy. I never knew her (tho she was very close to MY friend, as I say)

    Just illustrating that, even tho the epidemic seems to ebb in some ways, it is quietly doing some devastating damage to mental health, everywhere. By all accounts this woman was not the suicidal type beforehand, but prolonged separation from friends, family, and future did her in

    RIP

    Sorry to hear that Leon. One of my wife’s co workers lost her husband last year for the same reason.
    I reckon the ill-effects on mental health, from Covid, could become a bigger story than the physical effects of ill-health, quite soon. And they will ripple down the years, even the decades, in ways we do not know, but we can predict they will often be very sad.

    A lot of damaged kids, for a start
    Whilst acknowledging that for some the effects of lockdown have been literally tragic, I'd caution about assuming too much will 'ripple down the years'.

    Humans are incredibly resilient overall. Look at how people recovered after the deprivations of WW2.
    Yeah, except for the 85m who died outright, and the god knows how many who survived but were destroyed forever after from a mental health pov. Survivorship bias is puzzlingly hard to avoid.
    When people ask what WWII did to people, I think of this...

    https://youtu.be/NXZF6DwKvCI?t=90
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    COVID: More than 500 children admitted to hospital with coronavirus in England in week to Boxing Day

    A total of 512 children were admitted to hospital with COVID in England in the week leading up to Boxing Day, figures have revealed.

    The numbers, released on the government's coronavirus dashboard, also show that 59 children under five were admitted to hospital between Christmas Day and Boxing Day alone.

    A further 50 children in the same age bracket were admitted in the 24 hours prior.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-more-than-500-children-admitted-to-hospital-with-coronavirus-in-england-in-week-to-boxing-day-12505306

    This is where we need to know with or because of....
    I put the up every day... and then someone "breaks the news".... sigh....

    image
    It's almost as if someone dares to post on here without reading every other post on the thread first. Outrageous! ;-)
    Farmer Tupac to the red courtesy phone, Farmer Tupac to the red courtesy phone.....
    What?

    I was startled by CHB's post, because I look at but don't particularly understand graphs. I would concede that that's because I am stupid, except that I am about 4 SDs out to the right on the IQ bell curve. So, lovely work with the graphics, but a purely verbal commentary would help, and relieve you of the obligation to post incomprehensible sarkiness like this.
    Young people today. Having no idea who Farmer Tupac was... his dedication to PB was such as to make Mike Smithson look like an occasional.....
    I know exactly who tim was. I still don't see what you are on about tho.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,089
    Farooq said:
    Historically the French have managed to do a bit better than us through not making a pigs ear of applying unavoidable restrictions - more so when Johnson was doing the lockdown hokey-cokey last Winter than at the start of all of this.

    However, the past is another country. The French casedemic is following the same trajectory as ours and their per capita corpse count is now significantly higher. Contrary to Dr Gurdasani's recent entreaties, sellotaping pieces of blue paper to children's faces and bringing in vaccine passports everywhere hasn't spared them.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited December 2021
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Friend of a very close friend committed suicide this week. 28 years old. A young woman, in France, despairing of ever having a life again, because of Covid

    I do not seek personal sympathy. I never knew her (tho she was very close to MY friend, as I say)

    Just illustrating that, even tho the epidemic seems to ebb in some ways, it is quietly doing some devastating damage to mental health, everywhere. By all accounts this woman was not the suicidal type beforehand, but prolonged separation from friends, family, and future did her in

    RIP

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Friend of a very close friend committed suicide this week. 28 years old. A young woman, in France, despairing of ever having a life again, because of Covid

    I do not seek personal sympathy. I never knew her (tho she was very close to MY friend, as I say)

    Just illustrating that, even tho the epidemic seems to ebb in some ways, it is quietly doing some devastating damage to mental health, everywhere. By all accounts this woman was not the suicidal type beforehand, but prolonged separation from friends, family, and future did her in

    RIP

    Sorry to hear that Leon. One of my wife’s co workers lost her husband last year for the same reason.
    I reckon the ill-effects on mental health, from Covid, could become a bigger story than the physical effects of ill-health, quite soon. And they will ripple down the years, even the decades, in ways we do not know, but we can predict they will often be very sad.

    A lot of damaged kids, for a start
    We discussed this before and noted the oddly low rates of suicide during the pandemic.

    I mentioned this to a mental health professional I know following that convo and she reckoned it was because a lot of people actually do better during a lockdown (social anxiety?).

    The other brutal reason was that a lot of men do it spontaneously following a break up or after alcohol abuse, and there have been fewer opportunities for that.
    Any “damaged kids rippling down decades” parallels with the Second World War, which if anything was further years of disruption and greater trauma? 🤔

    Unless/despite evacuated out among farming folk.

    That must have been the life for them. 🙂
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Leon said:

    Friend of a very close friend committed suicide this week. 28 years old. A young woman, in France, despairing of ever having a life again, because of Covid

    I do not seek personal sympathy. I never knew her (tho she was very close to MY friend, as I say)

    Just illustrating that, even tho the epidemic seems to ebb in some ways, it is quietly doing some devastating damage to mental health, everywhere. By all accounts this woman was not the suicidal type beforehand, but prolonged separation from friends, family, and future did her in

    RIP

    That's awful. One of my more distant relatives committed suicide last lockdown when there was no end date to it, the family gossip is that he was already depressed but then the lockdown pushed him over the edge because he lived alone and had broken up with his boyfriend just before the pandemic started. Overdosed on painkillers and left a video message saying he couldn't take the feeling of being trapped any longer and not knowing when he would be free. The family were understandably devastated as they'd asked him to move back home a few times but he didn't get on with his dad who didn't agree with his, err, lifestyle.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,089
    IshmaelZ said:

    pigeon said:

    Taz said:
    Grimly satisfying. Each blow struck against the arguments of the lockdown ultras is one tiny step closer to the end of this nightmare.
    You really are a complete, entire and utter fing cckskr. It isn't about what hebephrenic dweebs like you think is going to happen, it is about what actually happens, and we don't know what will happen, until it does. How hard is it to understand that if a future narrative is simple enough for someone as stupid as you to understand, it is almost certainly also too simple to be true? The nightmare is not about "lockdown ultras", it is about the wholly unpredictable evolution of a virus.

    I am now going to watch the second half of Don't Look Up. I am worried that if I stayed on PB I might find myself being ruder to you than is strictly necessary.
    Calm down dear.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Friend of a very close friend committed suicide this week. 28 years old. A young woman, in France, despairing of ever having a life again, because of Covid

    I do not seek personal sympathy. I never knew her (tho she was very close to MY friend, as I say)

    Just illustrating that, even tho the epidemic seems to ebb in some ways, it is quietly doing some devastating damage to mental health, everywhere. By all accounts this woman was not the suicidal type beforehand, but prolonged separation from friends, family, and future did her in

    RIP

    Sorry to hear that Leon. One of my wife’s co workers lost her husband last year for the same reason.
    I reckon the ill-effects on mental health, from Covid, could become a bigger story than the physical effects of ill-health, quite soon. And they will ripple down the years, even the decades, in ways we do not know, but we can predict they will often be very sad.

    A lot of damaged kids, for a start
    Whilst acknowledging that for some the effects of lockdown have been literally tragic, I'd caution about assuming too much will 'ripple down the years'.

    Humans are incredibly resilient overall. Look at how people recovered after the deprivations of WW2.
    Yeah, except for the 85m who died outright, and the god knows how many who survived but were destroyed forever after from a mental health pov. Survivorship bias is puzzlingly hard to avoid.
    Of course. The 85m who died evidence my point that WW2 was a much larger catastrophe than this pandemic. But by and large people who survived were clearly not 'destroyed forever' by mental health issues - civilisation and society recovered and carried on thriving.

    Likewise, I do not expect Covid to cast a shadow that ropples down the years. It will leave a cultural mark of course but the vast majority will, whilst not forgetting, move on.
    Really?
    Of course, by and large, folk got on with it. But it wasn't normal. It couldn't be because people had abnormal experiences. Not least several years of absence from their kids.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Leicester 1-0 Money Bastards FT

    excellent
  • pigeon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    pigeon said:

    Taz said:
    Grimly satisfying. Each blow struck against the arguments of the lockdown ultras is one tiny step closer to the end of this nightmare.
    You really are a complete, entire and utter fing cckskr. It isn't about what hebephrenic dweebs like you think is going to happen, it is about what actually happens, and we don't know what will happen, until it does. How hard is it to understand that if a future narrative is simple enough for someone as stupid as you to understand, it is almost certainly also too simple to be true? The nightmare is not about "lockdown ultras", it is about the wholly unpredictable evolution of a virus.

    I am now going to watch the second half of Don't Look Up. I am worried that if I stayed on PB I might find myself being ruder to you than is strictly necessary.
    Calm down dear.
    You did basically say that people dying in France would be a good thing if it validated your view to stop lockdowns
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,284

    COVID: More than 500 children admitted to hospital with coronavirus in England in week to Boxing Day

    A total of 512 children were admitted to hospital with COVID in England in the week leading up to Boxing Day, figures have revealed.

    The numbers, released on the government's coronavirus dashboard, also show that 59 children under five were admitted to hospital between Christmas Day and Boxing Day alone.

    A further 50 children in the same age bracket were admitted in the 24 hours prior.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-more-than-500-children-admitted-to-hospital-with-coronavirus-in-england-in-week-to-boxing-day-12505306

    This is where we need to know with or because of....
    I put the up every day... and then someone "breaks the news".... sigh....

    image
    It's almost as if someone dares to post on here without reading every other post on the thread first. Outrageous! ;-)
    Farmer Tupac to the red courtesy phone, Farmer Tupac to the red courtesy phone.....
    Sorry - you've lost me there.
    Framer Tupac (aka "tim") formerly of this parish, had read every single posting in every single thread on PB since it began. And commented on them.....
    Ah, I see. Sorry.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,284
    IshmaelZ said:

    Charles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Not to turn this into a love-in with @HYUFD but at least he doesn't pretend to not be anything other than a Tory unlike some others who seem to spend their whole time trying to pretend they're not, or that they're just about to quit the party for the third time this week...

    Anyway, I just thought @HYUFD deserved some support, I really wish people would stop jumping on him. We don't hear a lot about him beyond his political POV (something which I respect) but there is somebody behind that keyboard and it can't be easy to have sometimes a lot of abuse coming your way.

    I'm leaving this topic to one side, I have a delicious bolognese that is on the menu for this evening

    Yes, I have more respect for the consistent tribalism of HYUFD TBH than the behaviour of a lot of other PB commentators. I find his loyalty to Johnson/the Tories quite admirable in a funny way TBH. He is taking the rough with the smooth. I find a lot of so called centre/centre right commentators on Politicalbetting rather hypocritical and irritating TBH.

    Most of his predictions/analysis since 2019 has been pretty reasonable on GB politics at least even he talks nonsense about some other countries like Germany.

    Hi Gary, hope you are keeping well.

    HYUFD is one of the few people here to not have underestimated Starmer from the day he was elected. That has to mean something.
    Underestimated Starmer? Are you selling some sort of story that Boris has fallen into SKS's cunning trap? All Starmer has done is maintain a constant position at 87 in the charts, while Johnson has plummeted from No 1 to no 100. He had one good PMQ and that's it.
    That’s a better analogy than your apartment block one. I never quite understood what you were aiming at (apart from the pavement, obviously)
    I thought the penthouse suite analogy was one of my all time peaks, but there you go.
    It was right up there at the top. For sure.
  • What happened to Tim please?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,748
    edited December 2021

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Friend of a very close friend committed suicide this week. 28 years old. A young woman, in France, despairing of ever having a life again, because of Covid

    I do not seek personal sympathy. I never knew her (tho she was very close to MY friend, as I say)

    Just illustrating that, even tho the epidemic seems to ebb in some ways, it is quietly doing some devastating damage to mental health, everywhere. By all accounts this woman was not the suicidal type beforehand, but prolonged separation from friends, family, and future did her in

    RIP

    Sorry to hear that Leon. One of my wife’s co workers lost her husband last year for the same reason.
    I reckon the ill-effects on mental health, from Covid, could become a bigger story than the physical effects of ill-health, quite soon. And they will ripple down the years, even the decades, in ways we do not know, but we can predict they will often be very sad.

    A lot of damaged kids, for a start
    Whilst acknowledging that for some the effects of lockdown have been literally tragic, I'd caution about assuming too much will 'ripple down the years'.

    Humans are incredibly resilient overall. Look at how people recovered after the deprivations of WW2.
    Yeah, except for the 85m who died outright, and the god knows how many who survived but were destroyed forever after from a mental health pov. Survivorship bias is puzzlingly hard to avoid.
    Of course. The 85m who died evidence my point that WW2 was a much larger catastrophe than this pandemic. But by and large people who survived were clearly not 'destroyed forever' by mental health issues - civilisation and society recovered and carried on thriving.

    Likewise, I do not expect Covid to cast a shadow that ropples down the years. It will leave a cultural mark of course but the vast majority will, whilst not forgetting, move on.
    I would say that; from a historical perspective, the response to COVID reveals the extremes advanced modern societies will go to in pursuit of safety. There is no WW2 style die off, the excess deaths are not particularly high, and are mostly old people with existing health conditions.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    IshmaelZ said:

    pigeon said:

    Taz said:
    Grimly satisfying. Each blow struck against the arguments of the lockdown ultras is one tiny step closer to the end of this nightmare.
    You really are a complete, entire and utter fing cckskr. It isn't about what hebephrenic dweebs like you think is going to happen, it is about what actually happens, and we don't know what will happen, until it does. How hard is it to understand that if a future narrative is simple enough for someone as stupid as you to understand, it is almost certainly also too simple to be true? The nightmare is not about "lockdown ultras", it is about the wholly unpredictable evolution of a virus.

    I am now going to watch the second half of Don't Look Up. I am worried that if I stayed on PB I might find myself being ruder to you than is strictly necessary.
    “Don’t look up don’t look up”

    Don’t bother, you have already seen better half of the film. When she got all shouty and taken off grid. 🙂
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,089

    pigeon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    pigeon said:

    Taz said:
    Grimly satisfying. Each blow struck against the arguments of the lockdown ultras is one tiny step closer to the end of this nightmare.
    You really are a complete, entire and utter fing cckskr. It isn't about what hebephrenic dweebs like you think is going to happen, it is about what actually happens, and we don't know what will happen, until it does. How hard is it to understand that if a future narrative is simple enough for someone as stupid as you to understand, it is almost certainly also too simple to be true? The nightmare is not about "lockdown ultras", it is about the wholly unpredictable evolution of a virus.

    I am now going to watch the second half of Don't Look Up. I am worried that if I stayed on PB I might find myself being ruder to you than is strictly necessary.
    Calm down dear.
    You did basically say that people dying in France would be a good thing if it validated your view to stop lockdowns
    I did no such thing. I merely pointed out that the relative trajectories of the French and British pandemics implied that the additional restrictions in force in France may no longer be adequate to contain the virus.

    Ishmael appears to have flown off the handle because he's currently in the scared witless camp. My flippant response probably hasn't helped, but equally neither does the torrent of screaming abuse.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Farooq said:

    Leicester 1-0 Money Bastards FT

    excellent

    Ex-Everton player scores.
    Another one let go on the cheap for no good reason...
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    pigeon said:

    Farooq said:
    Historically the French have managed to do a bit better than us through not making a pigs ear of applying unavoidable restrictions - more so when Johnson was doing the lockdown hokey-cokey last Winter than at the start of all of this.

    However, the past is another country. The French casedemic is following the same trajectory as ours and their per capita corpse count is now significantly higher. Contrary to Dr Gurdasani's recent entreaties, sellotaping pieces of blue paper to children's faces and bringing in vaccine passports everywhere hasn't spared them.
    "The past is another country" = let's not count anything apart from the last three weeks?

    I don't think you're searching for an honest epidemiological assessment of policy choices, you're just pushing a simplistic point. It's Jackanory with graphs.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,089
    Farooq said:

    pigeon said:

    Farooq said:
    Historically the French have managed to do a bit better than us through not making a pigs ear of applying unavoidable restrictions - more so when Johnson was doing the lockdown hokey-cokey last Winter than at the start of all of this.

    However, the past is another country. The French casedemic is following the same trajectory as ours and their per capita corpse count is now significantly higher. Contrary to Dr Gurdasani's recent entreaties, sellotaping pieces of blue paper to children's faces and bringing in vaccine passports everywhere hasn't spared them.
    "The past is another country" = let's not count anything apart from the last three weeks?

    I don't think you're searching for an honest epidemiological assessment of policy choices, you're just pushing a simplistic point. It's Jackanory with graphs.
    You posted the graphs.
  • pigeon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    pigeon said:

    Taz said:
    Grimly satisfying. Each blow struck against the arguments of the lockdown ultras is one tiny step closer to the end of this nightmare.
    You really are a complete, entire and utter fing cckskr. It isn't about what hebephrenic dweebs like you think is going to happen, it is about what actually happens, and we don't know what will happen, until it does. How hard is it to understand that if a future narrative is simple enough for someone as stupid as you to understand, it is almost certainly also too simple to be true? The nightmare is not about "lockdown ultras", it is about the wholly unpredictable evolution of a virus.

    I am now going to watch the second half of Don't Look Up. I am worried that if I stayed on PB I might find myself being ruder to you than is strictly necessary.
    Calm down dear.
    You did basically say that people dying in France would be a good thing if it validated your view to stop lockdowns
    More people are going to die this winter across the continent because countries didn't learn to live with the virus in the summer. Its what was grimly forecast for many months here while idiots were banging on about "plague island" but that doesn't mean anyone draws any satisfaction from it or views it as being a good thing.

    In an ideal world Omicron will mitigate much of the worst damage of what could have been under a Delta winter wave instead.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    What happened to Tim please?

    Farmer Tupac was taken out by Bigger G?

    PB is like joining a soap you havn’t paid attention to before.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    pigeon said:

    Charles said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    The number of people in hospital with COVID in England has risen to 9,546, according to latest figures.

    This is up 38% from a week earlier and is the highest number since 3 March.

    The latest figure compares to 8,474 yesterday, according to NHS England and indicates a 12% rise in the number of people in hospital in a single day.

    During the second wave of coronavirus, the number peaked at 34,336 on 18 January.

    In London, there are 3,024 people in hospital with COVID - up 59% on last week and the highest since 19 February.

    Last winter's peak for the capital was 7,917 on 18 January.

    On Monday, it was revealed the number of people in hospital with the virus in England was at its highest level since March.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-number-of-people-with-coronavirus-in-hospital-in-england-rises-to-9-546-12505307

    Some of which will be with covid rather than due to covid (not that this is benign, there are major risks of anaesthesia in covid, so hip fracture and asymptomatic covid could be bad news indeed).

    This is broadly to be expected in a high prevalence situation, as those due to covid generally require a few days to a week before they get ill.

    I would caution over interpreting these stats as they are likely to be incomplete due to the holidays etc.
    Incomplete and/or distorted by the holiday effects, presumably?

    Some of the UK numbers that BigG has just quoted down thread are badly backdated as they're reported at the speed of the slowest contributing nation. The English admissions and total patient data are both now current and show a substantial rise over the last few days, but as you say we have no indication from these figures as to what percentage of those patients are sick from Covid or merely carrying it, and these numbers tell us nothing about the severity of the actual Covid cases - we'll presumably have to wait and see if the admissions feed through into a rise in ventilator bed occupancy to gauge that? - or whether the amount of time the less difficult cases are spending in hospital is falling.

    This will all be very frustrating to the pro and anti restriction factions alike, but it looks as though we still need more data - which, presumably, is what the UK Government has elected to keep waiting for?

    It'll also be interesting to see if the unvaccinated continue to account for a very high proportion of the most seriously ill. If the hospital situation does get a lot more difficult then the Government may soon be confronted with awkward choices about whether to impose more Covid crap on everyone, or to go easy on most of the population and opt for Draconian curbs on the refusers.
    No it's option 3, deprioritise COVID treatment for vaccine refusers but don't say anything. Even if they go to the media about not getting NHS treatment there will be little sympathy for people who have refused the vaccine.
    I have some sympathy for your frustration with the buggers, but hospital doctors are not going to euthanise them by stealth. They've consistently prioritised Covid care over everything else *and* shown no inclination to treat people in any way differently depending on vaccination status. The NHS is perfectly happy to hook refusers up to ventilators whilst abandoning other seriously ill people to die to make room for them.

    If the Government wants refusers wheeled off into a tent in the hospital car park and put down then it will have to issue explicit orders to that effect, which the medical profession will disobey and the courts would most likely strike down in any event.

    There are only two ways to approach the refuser problem: persist with gentle persuasion, which is agonizingly slow and probably won't do very much good, or find ways to make their lives so difficult that they give in. Except that measures so extreme that they would have the desired effect - basically stripping refusers of the right to work without vaccine certification - would almost certainly be vetoed by an alliance of Opposition parties and Tory libertarians.

    So we're back to persuasion, or persuasion plus useless gestures like vaxports for restaurants, which will only provoke more heel digging without really hurting the refusers and, therefore, make the situation worse rather than better. Sadly, I think that patiently listening to their "concerns" and/or talking them out of their apathy is all we've got.
    In the first wave there was a minor kerfuffle over a triage scorecard determining who would receive treatment for Covid. You would get points for various factors on an infirmity scale, and the higher your score the more likely it would be that you would not be treated, if there was someone more likely to benefit from treatment (with a lower score).

    Pretty sure it would be possible for the government and NHS to put together a similar set of triage guidelines that would prioritise care for cancer, and heart disease over Covid care for vaccine refusers, on the basis that the former were more likely to benefit from treatment that those who reject modern medical science. Also, if you were to open some specific standalone Covid wards (whether in a car park tent or not) then it's a simple matter of moving people to the appropriate wards and providing more resources to other wards in the hospital.

    The NHS has always operated by rationing care with a system of queueing. It would not be difficult to change the prioritisation order for the queue to prioritise other patients above Covid patients. It's been done before to prioritise speedy cancer diagnostics and treatment ahead of other conditions. How many people will be demanding that vaccine refusers jump ahead of them in the queue for hospital treatment?
    It undermines one of the founding principles of the NHS
    If you're trying to imply that prioritisation and care rationing would undermine those principles then you are way, way too late. Leaving aside the plain fact that there have always been waiting lists, postcode lotteries, and that people have always been denied some treatments on the grounds of value for money, prioritisation and care rationing are both basic features of the NHS approach to Covid care. Covid patients are prioritised and care for many other conditions is rationed as a consequence.

    As to the specific case of deprioritising treatment for vaccine refusers, there is ample precedent for this as well. Patients suffering from a variety of conditions are routinely denied surgery until they lose a prescribed amount of weight, and let's not even get started on alcoholics and liver transplants...

    Or is it your contention that it's the responsibility of the state to save one particular group of its citizens from all the consequences of their bad decisions, regardless of the fact that so doing heaps misery and death upon others? Each intensive care bed blocked by a refuser could mean permanent disability or death for people whose treatment is delayed as a result. And then there's the enormous burden of emergency panic restrictions if the hospitals start to buckle under the weight of Covid patients - the sickest of whom are now predominantly unvaccinated.

    So, why should we regard the welfare of the refusers as sacrosanct, whilst breezily dismissing the collateral damage caused to everybody else by their choices?
    Prioritisation and care rationing happens on the basis of likely outcomes and QALY calculations. They aren’t decided on the basis of a moral judgement. Thus someone in a car accident is treated the same regardless of whether they are drunk, sober, speeding or whatever. Obesity and transplants are 100% in the outcomes bucket.

    To change that to one which is based on “I disapprove of your decision” opens up a whole different can of worms.
  • https://twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/1475849390157934601
    An Englishman, an Englishman and an Englishman walk into a bar....

    LOL.
  • pigeon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    pigeon said:

    Taz said:
    Grimly satisfying. Each blow struck against the arguments of the lockdown ultras is one tiny step closer to the end of this nightmare.
    You really are a complete, entire and utter fing cckskr. It isn't about what hebephrenic dweebs like you think is going to happen, it is about what actually happens, and we don't know what will happen, until it does. How hard is it to understand that if a future narrative is simple enough for someone as stupid as you to understand, it is almost certainly also too simple to be true? The nightmare is not about "lockdown ultras", it is about the wholly unpredictable evolution of a virus.

    I am now going to watch the second half of Don't Look Up. I am worried that if I stayed on PB I might find myself being ruder to you than is strictly necessary.
    Calm down dear.
    You did basically say that people dying in France would be a good thing if it validated your view to stop lockdowns
    More people are going to die this winter across the continent because countries didn't learn to live with the virus in the summer. Its what was grimly forecast for many months here while idiots were banging on about "plague island" but that doesn't mean anyone draws any satisfaction from it or views it as being a good thing.

    In an ideal world Omicron will mitigate much of the worst damage of what could have been under a Delta winter wave instead.
    What a grim undertone in this post. Shameful
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Friend of a very close friend committed suicide this week. 28 years old. A young woman, in France, despairing of ever having a life again, because of Covid

    I do not seek personal sympathy. I never knew her (tho she was very close to MY friend, as I say)

    Just illustrating that, even tho the epidemic seems to ebb in some ways, it is quietly doing some devastating damage to mental health, everywhere. By all accounts this woman was not the suicidal type beforehand, but prolonged separation from friends, family, and future did her in

    RIP

    Sorry to hear that Leon. One of my wife’s co workers lost her husband last year for the same reason.
    I reckon the ill-effects on mental health, from Covid, could become a bigger story than the physical effects of ill-health, quite soon. And they will ripple down the years, even the decades, in ways we do not know, but we can predict they will often be very sad.

    A lot of damaged kids, for a start
    Whilst acknowledging that for some the effects of lockdown have been literally tragic, I'd caution about assuming too much will 'ripple down the years'.

    Humans are incredibly resilient overall. Look at how people recovered after the deprivations of WW2.
    Yeah, except for the 85m who died outright, and the god knows how many who survived but were destroyed forever after from a mental health pov. Survivorship bias is puzzlingly hard to avoid.
    Of course. The 85m who died evidence my point that WW2 was a much larger catastrophe than this pandemic. But by and large people who survived were clearly not 'destroyed forever' by mental health issues - civilisation and society recovered and carried on thriving.

    Likewise, I do not expect Covid to cast a shadow that ropples down the years. It will leave a cultural mark of course but the vast majority will, whilst not forgetting, move on.
    Really?
    Of course, by and large, folk got on with it. But it wasn't normal. It couldn't be because people had abnormal experiences. Not least several years of absence from their kids.
    There is a big social theory in Germany that the generation AFTER the war all had abnormal social development because they were raised by parents who didn't talk about their pasts, due to the immense collective guilt of compliance with the Nazis.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    IshmaelZ said:

    pigeon said:

    Taz said:
    Grimly satisfying. Each blow struck against the arguments of the lockdown ultras is one tiny step closer to the end of this nightmare.
    You really are a complete, entire and utter fing cckskr. It isn't about what hebephrenic dweebs like you think is going to happen, it is about what actually happens, and we don't know what will happen, until it does. How hard is it to understand that if a future narrative is simple enough for someone as stupid as you to understand, it is almost certainly also too simple to be true? The nightmare is not about "lockdown ultras", it is about the wholly unpredictable evolution of a virus.

    I am now going to watch the second half of Don't Look Up. I am worried that if I stayed on PB I might find myself being ruder to you than is strictly necessary.
    “Don’t look up don’t look up”

    Don’t bother, you have already seen better half of the film. When she got all shouty and taken off grid. 🙂
    Seen death to 2021 yet?

    What did you learn in 2021?

    “I learn’t where my tonsils are so I could swab them. They were in a jar in the spare room.”
  • pigeon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    pigeon said:

    Taz said:
    Grimly satisfying. Each blow struck against the arguments of the lockdown ultras is one tiny step closer to the end of this nightmare.
    You really are a complete, entire and utter fing cckskr. It isn't about what hebephrenic dweebs like you think is going to happen, it is about what actually happens, and we don't know what will happen, until it does. How hard is it to understand that if a future narrative is simple enough for someone as stupid as you to understand, it is almost certainly also too simple to be true? The nightmare is not about "lockdown ultras", it is about the wholly unpredictable evolution of a virus.

    I am now going to watch the second half of Don't Look Up. I am worried that if I stayed on PB I might find myself being ruder to you than is strictly necessary.
    Calm down dear.
    You did basically say that people dying in France would be a good thing if it validated your view to stop lockdowns
    More people are going to die this winter across the continent because countries didn't learn to live with the virus in the summer. Its what was grimly forecast for many months here while idiots were banging on about "plague island" but that doesn't mean anyone draws any satisfaction from it or views it as being a good thing.

    In an ideal world Omicron will mitigate much of the worst damage of what could have been under a Delta winter wave instead.
    What a grim undertone in this post. Shameful
    This is a grim situation and not learning to live with the virus is shameful indeed. The summer and autumn were the time to do so and now there's going to be a crash course of having to do so in the winter which was entirely avoidable and forecast.

    You're right its grim, but the only people who should feel ashamed are the Zero Covidiots like Pagel and co and the continental leaders who so badly mismanaged the pandemic and refused to learn how to live with the virus during the summer.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    What happened to Tim please?


    Emperor Turhan: I would very much like to have seen a Vorlon.

    [he closes his eyes; when he reopens them, Kosh is standing over him]

    Emperor Turhan: How will this end?

    Kosh: In fire.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    pigeon said:

    Farooq said:

    pigeon said:

    Farooq said:
    Historically the French have managed to do a bit better than us through not making a pigs ear of applying unavoidable restrictions - more so when Johnson was doing the lockdown hokey-cokey last Winter than at the start of all of this.

    However, the past is another country. The French casedemic is following the same trajectory as ours and their per capita corpse count is now significantly higher. Contrary to Dr Gurdasani's recent entreaties, sellotaping pieces of blue paper to children's faces and bringing in vaccine passports everywhere hasn't spared them.
    "The past is another country" = let's not count anything apart from the last three weeks?

    I don't think you're searching for an honest epidemiological assessment of policy choices, you're just pushing a simplistic point. It's Jackanory with graphs.
    You posted the graphs.
    Taz posted the tweet of a graph which was subset to the last month to give a one-sided view.
    I posted the link to the full graph with no story, not pushing an ideology.
    The Jackanory bit, that was you. Treating a month ago as the dim and distant because it doesn't fit your story. Dishonest.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Alistair said:

    I don't know if people have seen that a handful of red states are subsidising people to be unvaccinated.

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1475889284192165891?t=FRv9Xi_Mtf1nu5TCIRIVsQ&s=19

    Just to be clear you mean paying unemployment benefits to people without jobs?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    edited December 2021

    pigeon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    pigeon said:

    Taz said:
    Grimly satisfying. Each blow struck against the arguments of the lockdown ultras is one tiny step closer to the end of this nightmare.
    You really are a complete, entire and utter fing cckskr. It isn't about what hebephrenic dweebs like you think is going to happen, it is about what actually happens, and we don't know what will happen, until it does. How hard is it to understand that if a future narrative is simple enough for someone as stupid as you to understand, it is almost certainly also too simple to be true? The nightmare is not about "lockdown ultras", it is about the wholly unpredictable evolution of a virus.

    I am now going to watch the second half of Don't Look Up. I am worried that if I stayed on PB I might find myself being ruder to you than is strictly necessary.
    Calm down dear.
    You did basically say that people dying in France would be a good thing if it validated your view to stop lockdowns
    More people are going to die this winter across the continent because countries didn't learn to live with the virus in the summer. Its what was grimly forecast for many months here while idiots were banging on about "plague island" but that doesn't mean anyone draws any satisfaction from it or views it as being a good thing.

    In an ideal world Omicron will mitigate much of the worst damage of what could have been under a Delta winter wave instead.
    On the other hand.
    If everyone in Europe gets omicron over the next few months, yet suffer relatively few deaths and long-term issues in a largely vaccinated population, could they be said to have been right all along?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Aslan said:

    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Friend of a very close friend committed suicide this week. 28 years old. A young woman, in France, despairing of ever having a life again, because of Covid

    I do not seek personal sympathy. I never knew her (tho she was very close to MY friend, as I say)

    Just illustrating that, even tho the epidemic seems to ebb in some ways, it is quietly doing some devastating damage to mental health, everywhere. By all accounts this woman was not the suicidal type beforehand, but prolonged separation from friends, family, and future did her in

    RIP

    Sorry to hear that Leon. One of my wife’s co workers lost her husband last year for the same reason.
    I reckon the ill-effects on mental health, from Covid, could become a bigger story than the physical effects of ill-health, quite soon. And they will ripple down the years, even the decades, in ways we do not know, but we can predict they will often be very sad.

    A lot of damaged kids, for a start
    Whilst acknowledging that for some the effects of lockdown have been literally tragic, I'd caution about assuming too much will 'ripple down the years'.

    Humans are incredibly resilient overall. Look at how people recovered after the deprivations of WW2.
    Yeah, except for the 85m who died outright, and the god knows how many who survived but were destroyed forever after from a mental health pov. Survivorship bias is puzzlingly hard to avoid.
    Of course. The 85m who died evidence my point that WW2 was a much larger catastrophe than this pandemic. But by and large people who survived were clearly not 'destroyed forever' by mental health issues - civilisation and society recovered and carried on thriving.

    Likewise, I do not expect Covid to cast a shadow that ropples down the years. It will leave a cultural mark of course but the vast majority will, whilst not forgetting, move on.
    Really?
    Of course, by and large, folk got on with it. But it wasn't normal. It couldn't be because people had abnormal experiences. Not least several years of absence from their kids.
    There is a big social theory in Germany that the generation AFTER the war all had abnormal social development because they were raised by parents who didn't talk about their pasts, due to the immense collective guilt of compliance with the Nazis.
    A must read....

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/They-Thought-Were-Free-Germans/dp/0226511928
  • New thread (with no feuding so far).
  • Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    I don't know if people have seen that a handful of red states are subsidising people to be unvaccinated.

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1475889284192165891?t=FRv9Xi_Mtf1nu5TCIRIVsQ&s=19

    Just to be clear you mean paying unemployment benefits to people without jobs?
    To people that shouldn't be eligible for those benefits I think is the point.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    I don't know if people have seen that a handful of red states are subsidising people to be unvaccinated.

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1475889284192165891?t=FRv9Xi_Mtf1nu5TCIRIVsQ&s=19

    Just to be clear you mean paying unemployment benefits to people without jobs?
    And free doughnuts.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Friend of a very close friend committed suicide this week. 28 years old. A young woman, in France, despairing of ever having a life again, because of Covid

    I do not seek personal sympathy. I never knew her (tho she was very close to MY friend, as I say)

    Just illustrating that, even tho the epidemic seems to ebb in some ways, it is quietly doing some devastating damage to mental health, everywhere. By all accounts this woman was not the suicidal type beforehand, but prolonged separation from friends, family, and future did her in

    RIP

    Sorry to hear that Leon. One of my wife’s co workers lost her husband last year for the same reason.
    I reckon the ill-effects on mental health, from Covid, could become a bigger story than the physical effects of ill-health, quite soon. And they will ripple down the years, even the decades, in ways we do not know, but we can predict they will often be very sad.

    A lot of damaged kids, for a start
    Whilst acknowledging that for some the effects of lockdown have been literally tragic, I'd caution about assuming too much will 'ripple down the years'.

    Humans are incredibly resilient overall. Look at how people recovered after the deprivations of WW2.
    Yeah, except for the 85m who died outright, and the god knows how many who survived but were destroyed forever after from a mental health pov. Survivorship bias is puzzlingly hard to avoid.
    Stockton said that it effected the rest of his life
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199

    pigeon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    pigeon said:

    Taz said:
    Grimly satisfying. Each blow struck against the arguments of the lockdown ultras is one tiny step closer to the end of this nightmare.
    You really are a complete, entire and utter fing cckskr. It isn't about what hebephrenic dweebs like you think is going to happen, it is about what actually happens, and we don't know what will happen, until it does. How hard is it to understand that if a future narrative is simple enough for someone as stupid as you to understand, it is almost certainly also too simple to be true? The nightmare is not about "lockdown ultras", it is about the wholly unpredictable evolution of a virus.

    I am now going to watch the second half of Don't Look Up. I am worried that if I stayed on PB I might find myself being ruder to you than is strictly necessary.
    Calm down dear.
    You did basically say that people dying in France would be a good thing if it validated your view to stop lockdowns
    More people are going to die this winter across the continent because countries didn't learn to live with the virus in the summer. Its what was grimly forecast for many months here while idiots were banging on about "plague island" but that doesn't mean anyone draws any satisfaction from it or views it as being a good thing.

    In an ideal world Omicron will mitigate much of the worst damage of what could have been under a Delta winter wave instead.
    What a grim undertone in this post. Shameful
    This is a grim situation and not learning to live with the virus is shameful indeed. The summer and autumn were the time to do so and now there's going to be a crash course of having to do so in the winter which was entirely avoidable and forecast.

    You're right its grim, but the only people who should feel ashamed are the Zero Covidiots like Pagel and co and the continental leaders who so badly mismanaged the pandemic and refused to learn how to live with the virus during the summer.
    Aren't you the same troll who was insisting for weeks during the summer that there weren't fewer cases on the continent just no testing?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Aslan said:

    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Friend of a very close friend committed suicide this week. 28 years old. A young woman, in France, despairing of ever having a life again, because of Covid

    I do not seek personal sympathy. I never knew her (tho she was very close to MY friend, as I say)

    Just illustrating that, even tho the epidemic seems to ebb in some ways, it is quietly doing some devastating damage to mental health, everywhere. By all accounts this woman was not the suicidal type beforehand, but prolonged separation from friends, family, and future did her in

    RIP

    Sorry to hear that Leon. One of my wife’s co workers lost her husband last year for the same reason.
    I reckon the ill-effects on mental health, from Covid, could become a bigger story than the physical effects of ill-health, quite soon. And they will ripple down the years, even the decades, in ways we do not know, but we can predict they will often be very sad.

    A lot of damaged kids, for a start
    Whilst acknowledging that for some the effects of lockdown have been literally tragic, I'd caution about assuming too much will 'ripple down the years'.

    Humans are incredibly resilient overall. Look at how people recovered after the deprivations of WW2.
    Yeah, except for the 85m who died outright, and the god knows how many who survived but were destroyed forever after from a mental health pov. Survivorship bias is puzzlingly hard to avoid.
    Of course. The 85m who died evidence my point that WW2 was a much larger catastrophe than this pandemic. But by and large people who survived were clearly not 'destroyed forever' by mental health issues - civilisation and society recovered and carried on thriving.

    Likewise, I do not expect Covid to cast a shadow that ropples down the years. It will leave a cultural mark of course but the vast majority will, whilst not forgetting, move on.
    Really?
    Of course, by and large, folk got on with it. But it wasn't normal. It couldn't be because people had abnormal experiences. Not least several years of absence from their kids.
    There is a big social theory in Germany that the generation AFTER the war all had abnormal social development because they were raised by parents who didn't talk about their pasts, due to the immense collective guilt of compliance with the Nazis.
    Indeed. And Wartime has been postulated as an explanation for the characteristics of Boomers. And their kids.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    IshmaelZ said:

    pigeon said:

    Taz said:
    Grimly satisfying. Each blow struck against the arguments of the lockdown ultras is one tiny step closer to the end of this nightmare.
    You really are a complete, entire and utter fing cckskr. It isn't about what hebephrenic dweebs like you think is going to happen, it is about what actually happens, and we don't know what will happen, until it does. How hard is it to understand that if a future narrative is simple enough for someone as stupid as you to understand, it is almost certainly also too simple to be true? The nightmare is not about "lockdown ultras", it is about the wholly unpredictable evolution of a virus.

    I am now going to watch the second half of Don't Look Up. I am worried that if I stayed on PB I might find myself being ruder to you than is strictly necessary.
    “Don’t look up don’t look up”

    Don’t bother, you have already seen better half of the film. When she got all shouty and taken off grid. 🙂
    Seen death to 2021 yet?

    What did you learn in 2021?

    “I learn’t where my tonsils are so I could swab them. They were in a jar in the spare room.”
    I can’t believe they will get away with saying some of that stuff. The Duke Of Deadinburg. 🤭
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    What happened to Tim please?

    Farmer Tupac was taken out by Bigger G?

    PB is like joining a soap you havn’t paid attention to before.
    PB is a very long running Telenovela...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,586
    Tempted to devote this one to @Leon

    You Have No Idea How Hard It Is to Get a Hamster Drunk
    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/12/alcohol-consumption-hamster-drunk/621125
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    dixiedean said:

    pigeon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    pigeon said:

    Taz said:
    Grimly satisfying. Each blow struck against the arguments of the lockdown ultras is one tiny step closer to the end of this nightmare.
    You really are a complete, entire and utter fing cckskr. It isn't about what hebephrenic dweebs like you think is going to happen, it is about what actually happens, and we don't know what will happen, until it does. How hard is it to understand that if a future narrative is simple enough for someone as stupid as you to understand, it is almost certainly also too simple to be true? The nightmare is not about "lockdown ultras", it is about the wholly unpredictable evolution of a virus.

    I am now going to watch the second half of Don't Look Up. I am worried that if I stayed on PB I might find myself being ruder to you than is strictly necessary.
    Calm down dear.
    You did basically say that people dying in France would be a good thing if it validated your view to stop lockdowns
    More people are going to die this winter across the continent because countries didn't learn to live with the virus in the summer. Its what was grimly forecast for many months here while idiots were banging on about "plague island" but that doesn't mean anyone draws any satisfaction from it or views it as being a good thing.

    In an ideal world Omicron will mitigate much of the worst damage of what could have been under a Delta winter wave instead.
    On the other hand.
    If everyone in Europe gets omicron over the next few months, yet suffer relatively few deaths and long-term issues in a largely vaccinated population, could they be said to have been right all along?
    Could very well be the case. Good preprint yesterday showing excellent immunity against delta conferred by omicron infection/recovery. It’s just possible that omicron will help, on balance. Lives will still be lost to it though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Farooq said:

    Leicester 1-0 Money Bastards FT

    excellent

    How shit they must be, we kept a clean sheet!

    🤣🤣🤣
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    I don't know if people have seen that a handful of red states are subsidising people to be unvaccinated.

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1475889284192165891?t=FRv9Xi_Mtf1nu5TCIRIVsQ&s=19

    Just to be clear you mean paying unemployment benefits to people without jobs?
    People fired from their jobs, which isn't usually grounds for unemployment benefit in the US.
This discussion has been closed.