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Poll suggests that the LAB lead would be just 3% with PM Sunak – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 23 in General
imagePoll suggests that the LAB lead would be just 3% with PM Sunak – politicalbetting.com

With just the possibility of a Tory leadership election then we should expect more “named leader” polling as featured in the Guardian this morning. This, I should state, is a very controversial form of polling that is likely to come under fire from supporters of those Tory figures, including Johnson, who come out of this badly.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    edited December 2021
    Doesn’t anybody want a first?

    Cool. I can cuddle up in bed now. 👩‍❤️‍💋‍👩

    PS would be rude of me not to comment on the header. I understand Mike, but I can hear Bruce Forsyth saying, just a bit of fun, just a bit of fun.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    China reports 182 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since early 2020, as officials try to contain Xian outbreak

    I presume we translate these figures by adding a zero or two on the end....no way they would be going full wuhan repeat for couple hundred cases. Only one family member allowed out for food every other day and that's it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,332
    You can argue that simply by asking the questions in this form makes them leading.
    Can, or must ?

    It's very dodgy polling - but at the same time carries great persuasive weight.

    If those numbers are repeated in a month's time, Johnson is likely to be gone quite soon.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,301
    Can we strip the England cricket team of their citizenship and not let them back in the country?
  • And so the fun begins. We are always inundated with this type of “named leader” polls whenever a current leader is living on borrowed time. They are of course total nonsense, but tremendous fun for everyone who dislikes Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, which apparently includes at least 80% of the Conservative Party.
  • tlg86 said:

    Can we strip the England cricket team of their citizenship and not let them back in the country?

    As Patel refuses to inform us on the criteria she requires to remove citizenship, the frightening thing is that your jest could become reality in a future dystopian England. Promptly revoking dangerous Tory legislation which enables the rebirth of fascism must be a priority for the incoming government.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    tlg86 said:

    Can we strip the England cricket team of their citizenship and not let them back in the country?

    Sentence them to transportation.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    edited December 2021
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Can we strip the England cricket team of their citizenship and not let them back in the country?

    Sentence them to transportation.
    We could do with a market on the next England captain as well.

    Trouble is there is no obvious candidate. Assuming Buttler will now (finally) be replaced by Foakes the latter might be a possibility. But all the senior players in the current side are surely ruled out as it’s unlikely many of them other than Root (set to resign) and Stokes (too busy, not too well) will be playing next summer.

    Edit - and yes, this is a leading question but the results are very striking. Johnson nearly as unpopular as Gove is pretty damning.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,748
    edited December 2021

    China reports 182 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since early 2020, as officials try to contain Xian outbreak

    I presume we translate these figures by adding a zero or two on the end....no way they would be going full wuhan repeat for couple hundred cases. Only one family member allowed out for food every other day and that's it.

    Disagree, the point of the zero-covid type of responses is that you nip the outbreaks in the bud. The logic of it is that if you have to do what's necessary to bring the spread of the virus down below 1, it's less disruptive to do that for a relatively small contained area early on than to do the same for the entire country when your hospital system is about to fall over. It also has the benefit that you avoid killing a load of people in the meantime.

    What's hard about this kind of response is that the government needs to get people to change their behaviour even though the chances of you as an individual getting sick are very low. So you for it to work you need the population to either be irrationally hypochondriac, very considerate, or government-controllable.

    The other implication is that the policy is easier to implement if people think they're more likely to get sick, so if you were going to lie about the scale of the outbreak, you'd be better lying on the upside than lying on the downside.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482
    edited December 2021
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Can we strip the England cricket team of their citizenship and not let them back in the country?

    Sentence them to transportation.
    We could do with a market on the next England captain as well.

    Trouble is there is no obvious candidate. Assuming Buttler will now (finally) be replaced by Foakes the latter might be a possibility. But all the senior players in the current side are surely ruled out as it’s unlikely many of them other than Root (set to resign) and Stokes (too busy, not too well) will be playing next summer.

    Edit - and yes, this is a leading question but the results are very striking. Johnson nearly as unpopular as Gove is pretty damning.
    We all already knew that about Gove. And the other way about Sunak. The striking thing about this poll is Truss, who also seems to be the favourite among members. MPs would be wise to keep her out the final two.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    edited December 2021
    On topic, how much of this is just name recognition?

    The general public don’t follow politics as much as those on a politics forum. They’ll likely know of Johnson, Sunak, Javid, and Gove, but not anyone else in the cabinet. Truss is popular with the Conservative members for her work on trade, but not particularly well known generally.

    I’m expecting Sunak’s star to fall pretty quickly in the new year, once handouts and tax cuts are replaced with tax rises, spending cuts, mortgage rate rises and utility bill rises.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    Good morning everybody. Unseasonably warm; something for which I suspect we'll pay in one way or another.

    On topic, Gove is a known known to many, and it's pretty obvious he's 'marmite'. Slightly surprised about Truss, but she does strike me at any rate as a somewhat likely to follow, not lead. And I think the comments about 'lazy British' will come back to haunt her.
    Sunak, however, hasn't really been challenged in public debate, nor has he been in a position where he's been at risk of having to make unpopular decisions. PrO the he has, he's made popular ones.
  • tlg86 said:

    Can we strip the England cricket team of their citizenship and not let them back in the country?

    We should definitely do that to Chris Silverwood and Ashley Giles.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Can we strip the England cricket team of their citizenship and not let them back in the country?

    Sentence them to transportation.
    We could do with a market on the next England captain as well.

    Trouble is there is no obvious candidate. Assuming Buttler will now (finally) be replaced by Foakes the latter might be a possibility. But all the senior players in the current side are surely ruled out as it’s unlikely many of them other than Root (set to resign) and Stokes (too busy, not too well) will be playing next summer.

    Edit - and yes, this is a leading question but the results are very striking. Johnson nearly as unpopular as Gove is pretty damning.
    There’s a few sporting vacancies, some of which haven’t even been announced yet, that we could have markets on.

    Next F1 race director is probably a dead cert for January, and next Man Utd manager for the end of the season. England cricket will be looking for a new captain and a new head coach.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    Off-topic:

    We (or at least I...) often go on about the cost of infrastructure here in the UK. The video below is technical, but shows quite how costs can escalate as you examine existing structures for reuse.

    As part of the East-West Rail project between Bletchley and Oxford, the Bletchley flyover needed updating. This was a concrete structure in the centre of Bletchley, crossing the West Coast Main Line and local roads. Whilst it had been mothballed for long periods in the past, until recently it was carrying heavy freight trains. The project started off as an attempt to renovate the structure, but eventually became a full-scale project to replace large sections of it - with the cost increasing accordingly. The decision to rebuild large parts of it garnered criticism - but from watching the video, it is hard to disagree with it.

    The reasons portions of it had to be rebuilt:
    *) Improved standards and structural knowledge over sixty years
    *) Poor construction
    *) Age deterioration despite maintenance
    *) Increased risks from and to the railway underneath the structure.

    Working with old structures is difficult. Working with old concrete structures is really difficult, especially in constrained localities.

    Also interestingly, I don't think Covid was mentioned as a difficulty wrt the work, despite it all the work being done during the crisis.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uaLN875LJ8I
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108

    tlg86 said:

    Can we strip the England cricket team of their citizenship and not let them back in the country?

    We should definitely do that to Chris Silverwood and Ashley Giles.
    Odd isn't it. Essex, County Champions, were rather sorry when 'Spoons' left. He'd been regarded as a successful coach.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139

    China reports 182 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since early 2020, as officials try to contain Xian outbreak

    I presume we translate these figures by adding a zero or two on the end....no way they would be going full wuhan repeat for couple hundred cases. Only one family member allowed out for food every other day and that's it.

    Disagree, the point of the zero-covid type of responses is that you nip the outbreaks in the bud. The logic of it is that if you have to do what's necessary to bring the spread of the virus down below 1, it's less disruptive to do that for a relatively small contained area early on than to do the same for the entire country when your hospital system is about to fall over. It also has the benefit that you avoid killing a load of people in the meantime.

    What's hard about this kind of response is that the government needs to get people to change their behaviour even though the chances of you as an individual getting sick are very low. So you for it to work you need the population to either be irrationally hypochondriac, very considerate, or government-controllable.

    The other implication is that the policy is easier to implement if people think they're more likely to get sick, so if you were going to lie about the scale of the outbreak, you'd be better lying on the upside than lying on the downside.
    I'd agree with that, but it should be noted that in the Chinese context, a "relatively small contained area early on" is millions of people. The latest city to undergo this has 13 million ...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    Cases by specimen date here - crikey
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330

    tlg86 said:

    Can we strip the England cricket team of their citizenship and not let them back in the country?

    As Patel refuses to inform us on the criteria she requires to remove citizenship, the frightening thing is that your jest could become reality in a future dystopian England. Promptly revoking dangerous Tory legislation which enables the rebirth of fascism must be a priority for the incoming government.
    The 'future dystopian England' is already here, we just don't necessarily want to see it. The idea that citizenship should be something that can be revoked by the arbitrary whims of politicians, without recourse to a meaningful legal process or published criteria, crosses a rubicon. It was crossed unnoticed by many, as the nation sleepwalks in to tyranny and madness in a deranged pursuit of safety.

    I've said before that the only thing that politicians may understand is the threat to use the same legislation against them. So perhaps someone should start a campaign to revoke the citizenship of the cabinet with foreign ancestry, after they have left office.

  • tlg86 said:

    Can we strip the England cricket team of their citizenship and not let them back in the country?

    We should definitely do that to Chris Silverwood and Ashley Giles.
    Odd isn't it. Essex, County Champions, were rather sorry when 'Spoons' left. He'd been regarded as a successful coach.
    I did flag up at the time it was a huge mistake to get rid of Ed Smith and give his role to Silverwood, as Ray Illingworth proved, a football style manager doesn't work for English cricket.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Cases by specimen date here - crikey

    Regional tiers to make a comeback?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/heavens-above-nasa-hires-priest-to-prepare-for-an-alien-discovery-sdczvwgqm

    This story has now been picked up widely. Nasa has sponsored 24 theologians to study societal reaction to a hypothetical discovery of intelligent alien life.

    Story comes after Nasa Administrator Bill Nelson’s startling recent comments when asked what he thought UAP were.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Cases by specimen date here - crikey

    Pure casedemic.

    Meanwhile "deaths" are still trending down according to latest data though that may be disrupted by the holidays.

    As a leading indicator, patients in MV beds is still trending down too. As first spotted by @Alistair in SA weeks ago I think that's still the case here.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139

    Pulpstar said:

    Cases by specimen date here - crikey

    Pure casedemic.

    Meanwhile "deaths" are still trending down according to latest data though that may be disrupted by the holidays.

    As a leading indicator, patients in MV beds is still trending down too. As first spotted by @Alistair in SA weeks ago I think that's still the case here.
    I hope you're correct - and there are indications that is the case.

    But if you're wrong, it's going to be really, really nasty.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,653
    edited December 2021
    Indeed and a reminder also that scenarios can change over a very short period, the interval being just one month in that example. There is an awful lot of economic pain to come during the first half of 2022, and I doubt whether the present Chancellor will be able to come out of it all still smelling of roses.
  • Good morning everybody. Unseasonably warm; something for which I suspect we'll pay in one way or another.

    On topic, Gove is a known known to many, and it's pretty obvious he's 'marmite'. Slightly surprised about Truss, but she does strike me at any rate as a somewhat likely to follow, not lead. And I think the comments about 'lazy British' will come back to haunt her.
    Sunak, however, hasn't really been challenged in public debate, nor has he been in a position where he's been at risk of having to make unpopular decisions. PrO the he has, he's made popular ones.

    The Chancellor's potentially unpopular decisions already made include ending the triple lock and cutting foreign aid, both of which broke manifesto pledges. The tax take is at a record high. And while he has supported firms through the pandemic, he has been criticised for not doing enough (see pb passim for northern restaurant news) and for losing billions to fraud.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108

    Good morning everybody. Unseasonably warm; something for which I suspect we'll pay in one way or another.

    On topic, Gove is a known known to many, and it's pretty obvious he's 'marmite'. Slightly surprised about Truss, but she does strike me at any rate as a somewhat likely to follow, not lead. And I think the comments about 'lazy British' will come back to haunt her.
    Sunak, however, hasn't really been challenged in public debate, nor has he been in a position where he's been at risk of having to make unpopular decisions. PrO the he has, he's made popular ones.

    The Chancellor's potentially unpopular decisions already made include ending the triple lock and cutting foreign aid, both of which broke manifesto pledges. The tax take is at a record high. And while he has supported firms through the pandemic, he has been criticised for not doing enough (see pb passim for northern restaurant news) and for losing billions to fraud.
    Very true; I don't think they've worked through yet, though. April, when tax rises bite and energy costs rise is when Sunak's chickens start to come home.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,096
    I am expecting a spike in cases in the vulnerable groups and over 60s soon. They hunkered down with the rise of Omicron prior to Christmas but then obviously and naturally met up with family and friends during the festive period.

    Then you probably will see a spike when the school's go back, Omicron can easily 'reinfect' and there are million of kids out there to spread it about.

    Some difficult days ahead for sure.
  • But the poll question with Johnson as Tory leader isn't hypothetical, or at least it's no more hypothetical than all mid term opinion polling (which asks how respondents would vote if a general election were held imminently). What should we make of the 5pp difference between the generic and the with Johnson results? Have some people forgotten that Johnson is PM? Do some think Johnson will be replaced before the next election? Or does naming Johnson make it a leading question, prompting respondents that voting Tory is the "wrong" answer? It's a pertinent question since if the first two scenarios are correct and Johnson does lead the Tories into the next election it suggests that Labour's polling lead is generally underestimated.
  • Sandpit said:

    On topic, how much of this is just name recognition?

    The general public don’t follow politics as much as those on a politics forum. They’ll likely know of Johnson, Sunak, Javid, and Gove, but not anyone else in the cabinet. Truss is popular with the Conservative members for her work on trade, but not particularly well known generally.

    I’m expecting Sunak’s star to fall pretty quickly in the new year, once handouts and tax cuts are replaced with tax rises, spending cuts, mortgage rate rises and utility bill rises.

    Sunak has been working very hard on name recognition. We've all watched agog as to how he has put his name and his brand onto so much nationally. He is also doing the same locally in the red wall. Going on visits to see people like Dehenna Davison, telling people where his build back better money will be spent

    I've been saying for ages that Sunak is the Tories only shot at winning the next election and this just for fun poll backs that up. And don't worry about the tax rises of death coming up. He'll blame Peppa and take the edge off them with shiny shiny aimed specifically at red wall grafters.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,653
    edited December 2021
    On topic:

    While Kellner's comment is made in relation to Johnson, he could just as easily have used the same data to conclude that Starmer is now in general a significant benefit to Labour fortunes, given that named leader polling substantially increases the Labour lead against all but one actual or potential Conservative PM
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    darkage said:

    tlg86 said:

    Can we strip the England cricket team of their citizenship and not let them back in the country?

    As Patel refuses to inform us on the criteria she requires to remove citizenship, the frightening thing is that your jest could become reality in a future dystopian England. Promptly revoking dangerous Tory legislation which enables the rebirth of fascism must be a priority for the incoming government.
    The 'future dystopian England' is already here, we just don't necessarily want to see it. The idea that citizenship should be something that can be revoked by the arbitrary whims of politicians, without recourse to a meaningful legal process or published criteria, crosses a rubicon. It was crossed unnoticed by many, as the nation sleepwalks in to tyranny and madness in a deranged pursuit of safety.

    I've said before that the only thing that politicians may understand is the threat to use the same legislation against them. So perhaps someone should start a campaign to revoke the citizenship of the cabinet with foreign ancestry, after they have left office.

    BJ… wasn’t he born in the US to an American mother(?)… right to claim US citizenship… Turkish ancestry…
  • Most damning stat ever.




    Extras for captain when Root stands down?
  • Jesus fecking Christ and the wee donkey.

    I've just seen Scott Boland's bowling figures.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 99,680
    edited December 2021
    Charles said:

    darkage said:

    tlg86 said:

    Can we strip the England cricket team of their citizenship and not let them back in the country?

    As Patel refuses to inform us on the criteria she requires to remove citizenship, the frightening thing is that your jest could become reality in a future dystopian England. Promptly revoking dangerous Tory legislation which enables the rebirth of fascism must be a priority for the incoming government.
    The 'future dystopian England' is already here, we just don't necessarily want to see it. The idea that citizenship should be something that can be revoked by the arbitrary whims of politicians, without recourse to a meaningful legal process or published criteria, crosses a rubicon. It was crossed unnoticed by many, as the nation sleepwalks in to tyranny and madness in a deranged pursuit of safety.

    I've said before that the only thing that politicians may understand is the threat to use the same legislation against them. So perhaps someone should start a campaign to revoke the citizenship of the cabinet with foreign ancestry, after they have left office.

    BJ… wasn’t he born in the US to an American mother(?)… right to claim US citizenship… Turkish ancestry…
    He was born in America to British born parents and citizens.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108

    Most damning stat ever.




    Extras for captain when Root stands down?

    Part of the rise in Extras is due to TV picking up bowlers overstepping, is it not? Very difficult for the bowlers end umpire to pick up a small over-step with everything else that has to be watched for.
  • Have we ever lost the Ashes before halftime?
  • Most damning stat ever.




    Extras for captain when Root stands down?

    Part of the rise in Extras is due to TV picking up bowlers overstepping, is it not? Very difficult for the bowlers end umpire to pick up a small over-step with everything else that has to be watched for.
    I thought they'd missed a load of them this series because they were only checking the wicket taking balls?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074

    Jesus fecking Christ and the wee donkey.

    I've just seen Scott Boland's bowling figures.

    Four overs, one maiden, seven runs, six wickets.

    (Pretty much any other way of writing it out gets ambiguous)
  • Have we ever lost the Ashes before halftime?

    I've repressed the 2006/07 and 2013/14 Ashes but I'm going to say no.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482
    jonny83 said:

    I am expecting a spike in cases in the vulnerable groups and over 60s soon. They hunkered down with the rise of Omicron prior to Christmas but then obviously and naturally met up with family and friends during the festive period.

    Then you probably will see a spike when the school's go back, Omicron can easily 'reinfect' and there are million of kids out there to spread it about.

    Some difficult days ahead for sure.

    Know someone who came down with rona a couple of months ago while double vaxxed. Since had a booster. Tested positive again a week or so ago, after a bet with his wife that he couldn’t possibly have it again, this time only with a scratchy throat that wouldn’t have interfered with his day were it not for govt mandated isolation requirements.

    The only way out of this looks to me to totally let rip in a boosted population, by stopping the continual testing and the self isolation of positive cases and removing all other mandates like masks. Otherwise we’re going to be talking about this forever. And just treat this as another annoying virus that you get every year or so.

    Sensible precautions ahead of time should be made, for what is largely a reverse psyops campaign given the low hospital stats caused by omicron. FFP3 masks for the clinically vulnerable that want them, 4th doses for them if they’re past 12 weeks, anti virals and oximeters already sitting in their bathroom cabinets.

    It wouldn’t go down well with the scaredy cats (you know who you are). But so what. Time to rip off the plaster.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    Pulpstar said:

    Cases by specimen date here - crikey

    Where? Do you have a link?
  • But the poll question with Johnson as Tory leader isn't hypothetical, or at least it's no more hypothetical than all mid term opinion polling (which asks how respondents would vote if a general election were held imminently). What should we make of the 5pp difference between the generic and the with Johnson results? Have some people forgotten that Johnson is PM? Do some think Johnson will be replaced before the next election? Or does naming Johnson make it a leading question, prompting respondents that voting Tory is the "wrong" answer? It's a pertinent question since if the first two scenarios are correct and Johnson does lead the Tories into the next election it suggests that Labour's polling lead is generally underestimated.
    The most profound polling I've ever seen (and it had a huge impact on David Cameron and many in the Tory Party) was the 2005 Ashcroft polling which showed a policy became unpopular the moment the voters realised it was a Tory policy.

    This is merely an extension of that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    It’s just been pointed out that the 13 playing days it took England to lose the Ashes, was shorter than the 14 days the team had to quarantine when they entered Australia.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Sandpit said:

    Jesus fecking Christ and the wee donkey.

    I've just seen Scott Boland's bowling figures.

    Four overs, one maiden, seven runs, six wickets.

    (Pretty much any other way of writing it out gets ambiguous)
    That's a wicket every 4 balls.
  • Have we ever lost the Ashes before halftime?

    I've repressed the 2006/07 and 2013/14 Ashes but I'm going to say no.
    I'm pretty sure we made it at least to day 4 in the third test in both those series
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    edited December 2021
    Australia doing things better differently ...

    "Australia: Hundreds given false Covid results in Sydney lab error"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-59752091

    Well, it's one way of making your positive test figures look better...
  • But the poll question with Johnson as Tory leader isn't hypothetical, or at least it's no more hypothetical than all mid term opinion polling (which asks how respondents would vote if a general election were held imminently). What should we make of the 5pp difference between the generic and the with Johnson results? Have some people forgotten that Johnson is PM? Do some think Johnson will be replaced before the next election? Or does naming Johnson make it a leading question, prompting respondents that voting Tory is the "wrong" answer? It's a pertinent question since if the first two scenarios are correct and Johnson does lead the Tories into the next election it suggests that Labour's polling lead is generally underestimated.
    The most profound polling I've ever seen (and it had a huge impact on David Cameron and many in the Tory Party) was the 2005 Ashcroft polling which showed a policy became unpopular the moment the voters realised it was a Tory policy.

    This is merely an extension of that.
    Trust is critical in politics. Many of the trot loons stuck with "look how popular our policies are!" and they were right! But as nobody trusted said trot loons, the anti-semite leader and the Maoist shadow chancellor with them it didn't matter.

    You need the policies AND the trust.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Cases by specimen date here - crikey

    Pure casedemic.

    Meanwhile "deaths" are still trending down according to latest data though that may be disrupted by the holidays.

    As a leading indicator, patients in MV beds is still trending down too. As first spotted by @Alistair in SA weeks ago I think that's still the case here.
    I hope you're correct - and there are indications that is the case.

    But if you're wrong, it's going to be really, really nasty.
    However much Doctor Death says "let them die" it isn't just about his personal quest for bodies. Omicron presents a significant and growing threat to business and services due to staff absence. When you are infected with Covid, you are not going to work. Cases are well past 100k a day, we'll see 150k and then some. That's a lot of people not going to work for a week...
    Yes, people (even PBers) forget that staff being off sick or in isolation is a major factor. To some extent, this has already been mitigated by reducing the isolation period from 10 days to seven, and we may soon follow the American CDC in a further reduction to five days (if only Boris had not already told us there will be no new announcements this year, or this week as it is also known).
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    Sandpit said:

    On topic, how much of this is just name recognition?

    The general public don’t follow politics as much as those on a politics forum. They’ll likely know of Johnson, Sunak, Javid, and Gove, but not anyone else in the cabinet. Truss is popular with the Conservative members for her work on trade, but not particularly well known generally.

    I’m expecting Sunak’s star to fall pretty quickly in the new year, once handouts and tax cuts are replaced with tax rises, spending cuts, mortgage rate rises and utility bill rises.

    Sunak has been working very hard on name recognition. We've all watched agog as to how he has put his name and his brand onto so much nationally. He is also doing the same locally in the red wall. Going on visits to see people like Dehenna Davison, telling people where his build back better money will be spent

    I've been saying for ages that Sunak is the Tories only shot at winning the next election and this just for fun poll backs that up. And don't worry about the tax rises of death coming up. He'll blame Peppa and take the edge off them with shiny shiny aimed specifically at red wall grafters.
    And remember that the NI increases weren’t even announced by Sunak but by Boris while Sunak was elsewhere well away from the crime scene.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    darkage said:

    tlg86 said:

    Can we strip the England cricket team of their citizenship and not let them back in the country?

    As Patel refuses to inform us on the criteria she requires to remove citizenship, the frightening thing is that your jest could become reality in a future dystopian England. Promptly revoking dangerous Tory legislation which enables the rebirth of fascism must be a priority for the incoming government.
    The 'future dystopian England' is already here, we just don't necessarily want to see it. The idea that citizenship should be something that can be revoked by the arbitrary whims of politicians, without recourse to a meaningful legal process or published criteria, crosses a rubicon. It was crossed unnoticed by many, as the nation sleepwalks in to tyranny and madness in a deranged pursuit of safety.

    I've said before that the only thing that politicians may understand is the threat to use the same legislation against them. So perhaps someone should start a campaign to revoke the citizenship of the cabinet with foreign ancestry, after they have left office.

    BJ… wasn’t he born in the US to an American mother(?)… right to claim US citizenship… Turkish ancestry…
    He was born in America to British born parents and citizens.
    Then how come he had US citizenship?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    darkage said:

    tlg86 said:

    Can we strip the England cricket team of their citizenship and not let them back in the country?

    As Patel refuses to inform us on the criteria she requires to remove citizenship, the frightening thing is that your jest could become reality in a future dystopian England. Promptly revoking dangerous Tory legislation which enables the rebirth of fascism must be a priority for the incoming government.
    The 'future dystopian England' is already here, we just don't necessarily want to see it. The idea that citizenship should be something that can be revoked by the arbitrary whims of politicians, without recourse to a meaningful legal process or published criteria, crosses a rubicon. It was crossed unnoticed by many, as the nation sleepwalks in to tyranny and madness in a deranged pursuit of safety.

    I've said before that the only thing that politicians may understand is the threat to use the same legislation against them. So perhaps someone should start a campaign to revoke the citizenship of the cabinet with foreign ancestry, after they have left office.

    BJ… wasn’t he born in the US to an American mother(?)… right to claim US citizenship… Turkish ancestry…
    He was born in America to British born parents and citizens.
    Then how come he had US citizenship?
    By being born there
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108

    Have we ever lost the Ashes before halftime?

    I've repressed the 2006/07 and 2013/14 Ashes but I'm going to say no.
    I'm pretty sure we made it at least to day 4 in the third test in both those series
    I did wonder about the 1948 series, but checked and the third test was drawn. England were all out for 52 in their first innings of the fifth test, though with opener Len Hutton last out for 30.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,094
    Can Sunak bat?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572
    Chris Hopson talking on bbc1 now about the change in Covid admissions, explicitly pointing out that the increase looks to be mainly patients with Covid, not for Covid.
    Just like SA.
    Just sayin.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    edited December 2021
    Nigelb said:

    You can argue that simply by asking the questions in this form makes them leading.
    Can, or must ?

    It's very dodgy polling - but at the same time carries great persuasive weight.

    If those numbers are repeated in a month's time, Johnson is likely to be gone quite soon.

    Especially as the statistic, for what it is worth, aligns with a load of anecdotal evidence, including the majority of comments on ConHome over the holiday period which have been very negative about the PM.

    The perhaps more interesting finding is that Truss appears to do even worse!

    Gove also, but then that’s less unexpected. Gove is one of those politicians who, however capable a minister they might be, is never going to appeal to voters in a media age.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, if you ever feel down, just remember the 2021 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix and it'll soon soothe your troubled spirit.
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    darkage said:

    tlg86 said:

    Can we strip the England cricket team of their citizenship and not let them back in the country?

    As Patel refuses to inform us on the criteria she requires to remove citizenship, the frightening thing is that your jest could become reality in a future dystopian England. Promptly revoking dangerous Tory legislation which enables the rebirth of fascism must be a priority for the incoming government.
    The 'future dystopian England' is already here, we just don't necessarily want to see it. The idea that citizenship should be something that can be revoked by the arbitrary whims of politicians, without recourse to a meaningful legal process or published criteria, crosses a rubicon. It was crossed unnoticed by many, as the nation sleepwalks in to tyranny and madness in a deranged pursuit of safety.

    I've said before that the only thing that politicians may understand is the threat to use the same legislation against them. So perhaps someone should start a campaign to revoke the citizenship of the cabinet with foreign ancestry, after they have left office.

    BJ… wasn’t he born in the US to an American mother(?)… right to claim US citizenship… Turkish ancestry…
    He was born in America to British born parents and citizens.
    Then how come he had US citizenship?
    IIRC because of birth and living there for five years thereafter.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    Jonathan said:

    Can Sunak bat?

    Larry the Downing St cat, could bat better than this bunch of muppets.
  • Fascinating interview with George Eustice, England’s Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs on R4 Today.

    Farmers are not happy bunnies regarding, among other things, the free trade deal with Australia.

    Can’t see many farmers switching straight to Labour, but could we see widespread protest via:

    - abstaining?
    - voting LibDem in England and Wales?
    - voting SNP in Scotland?
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    Probably complately irrelevant here but if you are using LastPass as your password management tool change your master password.

    LastPass users getting alerted of random logins using CORRECT master passwords from foreign IPs

    - Possibly credential stuffing from old LastPass breach

    - Possibly Log4j fallout

    https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29705957

    And yes you do need a password management tool as every one of your online passwords should be different but there are tools beyond LasPass. Bitwarden is free
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108

    Pulpstar said:

    Cases by specimen date here - crikey

    Pure casedemic.

    Meanwhile "deaths" are still trending down according to latest data though that may be disrupted by the holidays.

    As a leading indicator, patients in MV beds is still trending down too. As first spotted by @Alistair in SA weeks ago I think that's still the case here.
    I hope you're correct - and there are indications that is the case.

    But if you're wrong, it's going to be really, really nasty.
    However much Doctor Death says "let them die" it isn't just about his personal quest for bodies. Omicron presents a significant and growing threat to business and services due to staff absence. When you are infected with Covid, you are not going to work. Cases are well past 100k a day, we'll see 150k and then some. That's a lot of people not going to work for a week...
    Yes, people (even PBers) forget that staff being off sick or in isolation is a major factor. To some extent, this has already been mitigated by reducing the isolation period from 10 days to seven, and we may soon follow the American CDC in a further reduction to five days (if only Boris had not already told us there will be no new announcements this year, or this week as it is also known).
    Ydoethur has often remarked on the pressures on schools due to staff sicknesses. And Dr F has reiterated the point with regard to hospitals, especially ICU's.
    Difficult to replace the specialists in these circumstances.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    Sandpit said:

    It’s just been pointed out that the 13 playing days it took England to lose the Ashes, was shorter than the 14 days the team had to quarantine when they entered Australia.

    It’s a shame the quarantine wasn’t four weeks rather than two.
  • eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    On topic, how much of this is just name recognition?

    The general public don’t follow politics as much as those on a politics forum. They’ll likely know of Johnson, Sunak, Javid, and Gove, but not anyone else in the cabinet. Truss is popular with the Conservative members for her work on trade, but not particularly well known generally.

    I’m expecting Sunak’s star to fall pretty quickly in the new year, once handouts and tax cuts are replaced with tax rises, spending cuts, mortgage rate rises and utility bill rises.

    Sunak has been working very hard on name recognition. We've all watched agog as to how he has put his name and his brand onto so much nationally. He is also doing the same locally in the red wall. Going on visits to see people like Dehenna Davison, telling people where his build back better money will be spent

    I've been saying for ages that Sunak is the Tories only shot at winning the next election and this just for fun poll backs that up. And don't worry about the tax rises of death coming up. He'll blame Peppa and take the edge off them with shiny shiny aimed specifically at red wall grafters.
    And remember that the NI increases weren’t even announced by Sunak but by Boris while Sunak was elsewhere well away from the crime scene.
    I simply don't understand the "Sunak is Chancellor, there are tax rises coming, Sunak will take the blame" argument.

    If Peppa remains Prime Minister then yes of course that is what Number 10 will try to do. But we're talking about Peppa having been hounded out of office in disgrace. Everything humanly possible will be strapped to him as he is thrown out of office. Every unpopular policy, every questionable decision, they will all have been the doing of Peppa or preferably Carrie.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, if you ever feel down, just remember the 2021 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix and it'll soon soothe your troubled spirit.

    It's a hubris nemesis thing. The gods of sport noted tse's reaction to the knife edge finale they had crafted for him there, and said OK, so you don't like our knife edge finales....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cases by specimen date here - crikey

    Where? Do you have a link?
    Govt dashboard
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572

    Most damning stat ever.




    Extras for captain when Root stands down?

    Part of the rise in Extras is due to TV picking up bowlers overstepping, is it not? Very difficult for the bowlers end umpire to pick up a small over-step with everything else that has to be watched for.
    Yes but that not the point. In reality most extras in tests will be leg byes. Very hard to get wides, and no balls aren’t huge, even with the increased calling.
    That no other English batsman is within 1100 runs is astonishing and damning.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    Fascinating interview with George Eustice, England’s Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs on R4 Today.

    Farmers are not happy bunnies regarding, among other things, the free trade deal with Australia.

    Can’t see many farmers switching straight to Labour, but could we see widespread protest via:

    - abstaining?
    - voting LibDem in England and Wales?
    - voting SNP in Scotland?

    Why do you think the Lib Dems were given a free(ish) run in North Staffordshire?

    I pointed out a couple of weeks ago the impact the Australia deal (and CAP replacement schemes) would be and that impact is only beginning to be noticed and felt by farmers. They won’t by themselves change a seat but the farmer / rural vote is way more than the 0.5% HYUFD claims it to be.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108

    Fascinating interview with George Eustice, England’s Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs on R4 Today.

    Farmers are not happy bunnies regarding, among other things, the free trade deal with Australia.

    Can’t see many farmers switching straight to Labour, but could we see widespread protest via:

    - abstaining?
    - voting LibDem in England and Wales?
    - voting SNP in Scotland?

    Have a look at the article in Guardian yesterday from the new LD MP for Shropshire N. She reported widespread farming discontent, and as I was reminded, although the actual farmer numbers may be small many other voters see themselves as part of the wider 'farming community'.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572

    Pulpstar said:

    Cases by specimen date here - crikey

    Pure casedemic.

    Meanwhile "deaths" are still trending down according to latest data though that may be disrupted by the holidays.

    As a leading indicator, patients in MV beds is still trending down too. As first spotted by @Alistair in SA weeks ago I think that's still the case here.
    I hope you're correct - and there are indications that is the case.

    But if you're wrong, it's going to be really, really nasty.
    However much Doctor Death says "let them die" it isn't just about his personal quest for bodies. Omicron presents a significant and growing threat to business and services due to staff absence. When you are infected with Covid, you are not going to work. Cases are well past 100k a day, we'll see 150k and then some. That's a lot of people not going to work for a week...
    Very true, and it will be challenging. I wonder though what the ‘normal’ rate of absence is in a bad winter? Not suggesting this is just that, but people do go off sick.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, if you ever feel down, just remember the 2021 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix and it'll soon soothe your troubled spirit.

    It's a hubris nemesis thing. The gods of sport noted tse's reaction to the knife edge finale they had crafted for him there, and said OK, so you don't like our knife edge finales....
    2019 was the sporting peak for me.

    England winning the cricket world cup in those nerve shredding circumstances I can recall and Liverpool winning the Champions League, one year after losing the final in heart breaking circumstances.

    2019 - Corner taken quickly and I was there.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321

    On topic:

    While Kellner's comment is made in relation to Johnson, he could just as easily have used the same data to conclude that Starmer is now in general a significant benefit to Labour fortunes, given that named leader polling substantially increases the Labour lead against all but one actual or potential Conservative PM

    For very many people who don’t think about politics on a day to day basis, and only pay any attention to it when an election is called, being phoned/emailed/stopped in the street and asked how they would vote elicits a retrospective answer - the instinctive reaction is to think back to the last time you were engaged in politics and say how you voted last time.

    Naming the leaders is a reminder about the present, and prompts people to re-evaluate depending on those leaders and any recent events with which they’ve been associated in the news.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,130
    moonshine said:

    jonny83 said:

    I am expecting a spike in cases in the vulnerable groups and over 60s soon. They hunkered down with the rise of Omicron prior to Christmas but then obviously and naturally met up with family and friends during the festive period.

    Then you probably will see a spike when the school's go back, Omicron can easily 'reinfect' and there are million of kids out there to spread it about.

    Some difficult days ahead for sure.

    Know someone who came down with rona a couple of months ago while double vaxxed. Since had a booster. Tested positive again a week or so ago, after a bet with his wife that he couldn’t possibly have it again, this time only with a scratchy throat that wouldn’t have interfered with his day were it not for govt mandated isolation requirements.
    My eldest son had Covid in July, long after being double jabbed. He felt rough at the time but experienced no long term consequences and his double-jabbed partner avoided catching it from him. They were both boosted in November, so were surprised when the partner produced a vaguely positive LFT last Wednesday. They were scheduled to join us for Christmas, so both went for PCRs on Thursday. Their results didn't come back until late yesterday, and both were positive. Neither have any symptoms.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    Off-topic:

    Last night I watched the first episode of this year's Worlds Strongest Man (a Christmas tradition in our family). Travis Ortmayer was one of the competitors, the first time he had appeared in ten years. It turns out he has had quite a battle with addiction to painkillers and crystal meth.

    It could happen to any of us...

    https://muscleandhealth.com/the-painkiller-subscription-that-turned-travis-ortmayer-into-a-homeless-meth-addict/
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572

    But the poll question with Johnson as Tory leader isn't hypothetical, or at least it's no more hypothetical than all mid term opinion polling (which asks how respondents would vote if a general election were held imminently). What should we make of the 5pp difference between the generic and the with Johnson results? Have some people forgotten that Johnson is PM? Do some think Johnson will be replaced before the next election? Or does naming Johnson make it a leading question, prompting respondents that voting Tory is the "wrong" answer? It's a pertinent question since if the first two scenarios are correct and Johnson does lead the Tories into the next election it suggests that Labour's polling lead is generally underestimated.
    The most profound polling I've ever seen (and it had a huge impact on David Cameron and many in the Tory Party) was the 2005 Ashcroft polling which showed a policy became unpopular the moment the voters realised it was a Tory policy.

    This is merely an extension of that.
    I used to car share with a typical ‘our family has always voted labour and always will’ woman. I tested her on some policies, without saying which party they were. She liked them. I told them they were Tory policies. She was non-plussed.
    I think this is common to a lot of the tribal, non political voters, of all political flavours. Most people do not engage with politics. That’s why when a story breaks out of the geeks and pundits and into the real world, you know it’s big.
    My family, unprompted, have been slaughtering Johnson over Christmas.
    It’s over for him, just the end game to play out.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    Pulpstar said:

    Cases by specimen date here - crikey

    Pure casedemic.

    Meanwhile "deaths" are still trending down according to latest data though that may be disrupted by the holidays.

    As a leading indicator, patients in MV beds is still trending down too. As first spotted by @Alistair in SA weeks ago I think that's still the case here.
    I hope you're correct - and there are indications that is the case.

    But if you're wrong, it's going to be really, really nasty.
    However much Doctor Death says "let them die" it isn't just about his personal quest for bodies. Omicron presents a significant and growing threat to business and services due to staff absence. When you are infected with Covid, you are not going to work. Cases are well past 100k a day, we'll see 150k and then some. That's a lot of people not going to work for a week...
    Very true, and it will be challenging. I wonder though what the ‘normal’ rate of absence is in a bad winter? Not suggesting this is just that, but people do go off sick.
    Absences due to covid currently are double normal absences in my Trust. Higher still in inner London it seems.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    edited December 2021

    Fascinating interview with George Eustice, England’s Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs on R4 Today.

    Farmers are not happy bunnies regarding, among other things, the free trade deal with Australia.

    Can’t see many farmers switching straight to Labour, but could we see widespread protest via:

    - abstaining?
    - voting LibDem in England and Wales?
    - voting SNP in Scotland?

    Add the fisherfolk and it could be hard on the more ruraql/coastal [edit] Tories in Scotland. Though I can't find a recent assessment of e.g. the Eyemouth export trade (which was sucking its teeth very unhappily earlier in the year).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108

    Most damning stat ever.




    Extras for captain when Root stands down?

    Part of the rise in Extras is due to TV picking up bowlers overstepping, is it not? Very difficult for the bowlers end umpire to pick up a small over-step with everything else that has to be watched for.
    Yes but that not the point. In reality most extras in tests will be leg byes. Very hard to get wides, and no balls aren’t huge, even with the increased calling.
    That no other English batsman is within 1100 runs is astonishing and damning.
    Just looked at the scorecards for this game; England conceded 5 no-balls and 4 leg-byes. The Aussies 1 no-ball and 9 leg-byes.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    On topic, how much of this is just name recognition?

    The general public don’t follow politics as much as those on a politics forum. They’ll likely know of Johnson, Sunak, Javid, and Gove, but not anyone else in the cabinet. Truss is popular with the Conservative members for her work on trade, but not particularly well known generally.

    I’m expecting Sunak’s star to fall pretty quickly in the new year, once handouts and tax cuts are replaced with tax rises, spending cuts, mortgage rate rises and utility bill rises.

    Sunak has been working very hard on name recognition. We've all watched agog as to how he has put his name and his brand onto so much nationally. He is also doing the same locally in the red wall. Going on visits to see people like Dehenna Davison, telling people where his build back better money will be spent

    I've been saying for ages that Sunak is the Tories only shot at winning the next election and this just for fun poll backs that up. And don't worry about the tax rises of death coming up. He'll blame Peppa and take the edge off them with shiny shiny aimed specifically at red wall grafters.
    And remember that the NI increases weren’t even announced by Sunak but by Boris while Sunak was elsewhere well away from the crime scene.
    I simply don't understand the "Sunak is Chancellor, there are tax rises coming, Sunak will take the blame" argument.

    If Peppa remains Prime Minister then yes of course that is what Number 10 will try to do. But we're talking about Peppa having been hounded out of office in disgrace. Everything humanly possible will be strapped to him as he is thrown out of office. Every unpopular policy, every questionable decision, they will all have been the doing of Peppa or preferably Carrie.
    Oh I know that - my point was that Sunak wasn’t anywhere near the crime scenario, which is remarkable trick for a large tax increase
  • Fascinating interview with George Eustice, England’s Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs on R4 Today.

    Farmers are not happy bunnies regarding, among other things, the free trade deal with Australia.

    Can’t see many farmers switching straight to Labour, but could we see widespread protest via:

    - abstaining?
    - voting LibDem in England and Wales?
    - voting SNP in Scotland?

    A lot will depend on how the Tory party responds.

    At the moment they have patronising lickspittles like David Duguid telling farmers and fishermen that actually Brexit has been brilliant and actually naysayer voices like Banff and Buchan famers and fishermen are ignoring all the amazing things he and his government are doing. Unsurprisingly this seat will fall to the SNP according to the polls.

    If the government keep saying Don't Look Up to businesses and rural communities they are going to get pummelled. They know that we remain completely aligned to the single market and customs union and that it is only the government tying them in knots and threatening their subsidies threatening their way of life. They will vote for parties who will fix this.

    Or, the government wakes up. Realises the ERG have led them down the garden path. And take a giant pair of scissors to "european" red tape and claim victory as they free business and farmers and fishermen from pointless red tape done by that failed lying clown who has just been fired.
  • Most damning stat ever.




    Extras for captain when Root stands down?

    The horror of the stat is slightly tempered by the fact Root has played 29 innings, next highest for a batsman is the 20 by Sibley.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572

    Most damning stat ever.




    Extras for captain when Root stands down?

    The horror of the stat is slightly tempered by the fact Root has played 29 innings, next highest for a batsman is the 20 by Sibley.
    I’d argue if Malan had played 20 innings he would be second on the list.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108

    Most damning stat ever.




    Extras for captain when Root stands down?

    The horror of the stat is slightly tempered by the fact Root has played 29 innings, next highest for a batsman is the 20 by Sibley.
    And Sibley didn't make that list! Might be a different sort of horror.
  • Most damning stat ever.




    Extras for captain when Root stands down?

    The horror of the stat is slightly tempered by the fact Root has played 29 innings, next highest for a batsman is the 20 by Sibley.
    I’d argue if Malan had played 20 innings he would be second on the list.
    I think he's the only one to average in the 30s. Apart from that, the only respectable batting average is Woakes's.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    edited December 2021

    Fascinating interview with George Eustice, England’s Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs on R4 Today.

    Farmers are not happy bunnies regarding, among other things, the free trade deal with Australia.

    Can’t see many farmers switching straight to Labour, but could we see widespread protest via:

    - abstaining?
    - voting LibDem in England and Wales?
    - voting SNP in Scotland?

    A lot will depend on how the Tory party responds.

    At the moment they have patronising lickspittles like David Duguid telling farmers and fishermen that actually Brexit has been brilliant and actually naysayer voices like Banff and Buchan famers and fishermen are ignoring all the amazing things he and his government are doing. Unsurprisingly this seat will fall to the SNP according to the polls.

    If the government keep saying Don't Look Up to businesses and rural communities they are going to get pummelled. They know that we remain completely aligned to the single market and customs union and that it is only the government tying them in knots and threatening their subsidies threatening their way of life. They will vote for parties who will fix this.

    Or, the government wakes up. Realises the ERG have led them down the garden path. And take a giant pair of scissors to "european" red tape and claim victory as they free business and farmers and fishermen from pointless red tape done by that failed lying clown who has just been fired.
    An interesting piece here, if slightly dated and in a generally emphatically Unionist newspaper btw: does suggest that the SNP might srtruggle to get some votes from the hard Breixters even if the latter abstain (or indeed vote LD, but then the LDs are against Brexit too).

    https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/scotland/2190229/without-a-doubt-some-will-call-it-a-day-warns-east-neuk-prawn-fisherman-as-covid-19-and-brexit-impact-bites/
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    Fascinating interview with George Eustice, England’s Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs on R4 Today.

    Farmers are not happy bunnies regarding, among other things, the free trade deal with Australia.

    Can’t see many farmers switching straight to Labour, but could we see widespread protest via:

    - abstaining?
    - voting LibDem in England and Wales?
    - voting SNP in Scotland?

    A lot will depend on how the Tory party responds.

    At the moment they have patronising lickspittles like David Duguid telling farmers and fishermen that actually Brexit has been brilliant and actually naysayer voices like Banff and Buchan famers and fishermen are ignoring all the amazing things he and his government are doing. Unsurprisingly this seat will fall to the SNP according to the polls.

    If the government keep saying Don't Look Up to businesses and rural communities they are going to get pummelled. They know that we remain completely aligned to the single market and customs union and that it is only the government tying them in knots and threatening their subsidies threatening their way of life. They will vote for parties who will fix this.

    Or, the government wakes up. Realises the ERG have led them down the garden path. And take a giant pair of scissors to "european" red tape and claim victory as they free business and farmers and fishermen from pointless red tape done by that failed lying clown who has just been fired.
    Subsidises have been cut in half and the criteria for them has completely changed. I don’t have the details as that’s a wormhole I don’t wish to go down and something that it’s easier to deny knowledge about given Mrs Eek’s areas
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, if you ever feel down, just remember the 2021 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix and it'll soon soothe your troubled spirit.

    It's a hubris nemesis thing. The gods of sport noted tse's reaction to the knife edge finale they had crafted for him there, and said OK, so you don't like our knife edge finales....
    2019 was the sporting peak for me.

    England winning the cricket world cup in those nerve shredding circumstances I can recall and Liverpool winning the Champions League, one year after losing the final in heart breaking circumstances.

    2019 - Corner taken quickly and I was there.
    2005 has to garner an honourable mention too surely?

    First Ashes triumph I'd seen, plus the Istanbul Champions League Final.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    On topic, how much of this is just name recognition?

    The general public don’t follow politics as much as those on a politics forum. They’ll likely know of Johnson, Sunak, Javid, and Gove, but not anyone else in the cabinet. Truss is popular with the Conservative members for her work on trade, but not particularly well known generally.

    I’m expecting Sunak’s star to fall pretty quickly in the new year, once handouts and tax cuts are replaced with tax rises, spending cuts, mortgage rate rises and utility bill rises.

    Sunak has been working very hard on name recognition. We've all watched agog as to how he has put his name and his brand onto so much nationally. He is also doing the same locally in the red wall. Going on visits to see people like Dehenna Davison, telling people where his build back better money will be spent

    I've been saying for ages that Sunak is the Tories only shot at winning the next election and this just for fun poll backs that up. And don't worry about the tax rises of death coming up. He'll blame Peppa and take the edge off them with shiny shiny aimed specifically at red wall grafters.
    And remember that the NI increases weren’t even announced by Sunak but by Boris while Sunak was elsewhere well away from the crime scene.
    I simply don't understand the "Sunak is Chancellor, there are tax rises coming, Sunak will take the blame" argument.

    If Peppa remains Prime Minister then yes of course that is what Number 10 will try to do. But we're talking about Peppa having been hounded out of office in disgrace. Everything humanly possible will be strapped to him as he is thrown out of office. Every unpopular policy, every questionable decision, they will all have been the doing of Peppa or preferably Carrie.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Scapegoat_(painting)#/media/File:William_Holman_Hunt_-_The_Scapegoat.jpg
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 166
    Gadfly said:


    My eldest son had Covid in July, long after being double jabbed. He felt rough at the time but experienced no long term consequences and his double-jabbed partner avoided catching it from him. They were both boosted in November, so were surprised when the partner produced a vaguely positive LFT last Wednesday. They were scheduled to join us for Christmas, so both went for PCRs on Thursday. Their results didn't come back until late yesterday, and both were positive. Neither have any symptoms.

    This kind of anecdote does make me wonder how much flu and the common cold also circulate more or less asymptomatically (ie is covid odd for its tendency to spread in the asymptomatic, or is that just normal for a respiratory disease?). I wonder if anybody's done any research...
  • moonshine said:

    jonny83 said:

    I am expecting a spike in cases in the vulnerable groups and over 60s soon. They hunkered down with the rise of Omicron prior to Christmas but then obviously and naturally met up with family and friends during the festive period.

    Then you probably will see a spike when the school's go back, Omicron can easily 'reinfect' and there are million of kids out there to spread it about.

    Some difficult days ahead for sure.

    Know someone who came down with rona a couple of months ago while double vaxxed. Since had a booster. Tested positive again a week or so ago, after a bet with his wife that he couldn’t possibly have it again, this time only with a scratchy throat that wouldn’t have interfered with his day were it not for govt mandated isolation requirements.

    The only way out of this looks to me to totally let rip in a boosted population, by stopping the continual testing and the self isolation of positive cases and removing all other mandates like masks. Otherwise we’re going to be talking about this forever. And just treat this as another annoying virus that you get every year or so.

    Sensible precautions ahead of time should be made, for what is largely a reverse psyops campaign given the low hospital stats caused by omicron. FFP3 masks for the clinically vulnerable that want them, 4th doses for them if they’re past 12 weeks, anti virals and oximeters already sitting in their bathroom cabinets.

    It wouldn’t go down well with the scaredy cats (you know who you are). But so what. Time to rip off the plaster.
    The basic problem with "rip off the plaster" is this. "a scratchy throat that wouldn’t have interfered with his day" is perfectly capable of making someone seriously ill or dead. Or scores of people ill enough to not be at work. People with critical jobs.

    When people have Covid - even if they are lucky enough to only have a scratchy throat - they need to self-isolate to protect *other people*.

    I really struggle with how this rather basic consideration seems to pass some of you by.
  • 2002/03 Ashes were lost on day 3 of the third Test, but that year we made it past Tea.

    That was Silverwood's last ever game for England. He was "Absent, hurt" for the second innings.
  • eek said:

    Fascinating interview with George Eustice, England’s Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs on R4 Today.

    Farmers are not happy bunnies regarding, among other things, the free trade deal with Australia.

    Can’t see many farmers switching straight to Labour, but could we see widespread protest via:

    - abstaining?
    - voting LibDem in England and Wales?
    - voting SNP in Scotland?

    A lot will depend on how the Tory party responds.

    At the moment they have patronising lickspittles like David Duguid telling farmers and fishermen that actually Brexit has been brilliant and actually naysayer voices like Banff and Buchan famers and fishermen are ignoring all the amazing things he and his government are doing. Unsurprisingly this seat will fall to the SNP according to the polls.

    If the government keep saying Don't Look Up to businesses and rural communities they are going to get pummelled. They know that we remain completely aligned to the single market and customs union and that it is only the government tying them in knots and threatening their subsidies threatening their way of life. They will vote for parties who will fix this.

    Or, the government wakes up. Realises the ERG have led them down the garden path. And take a giant pair of scissors to "european" red tape and claim victory as they free business and farmers and fishermen from pointless red tape done by that failed lying clown who has just been fired.
    Subsidises have been cut in half and the criteria for them has completely changed. I don’t have the details as that’s a wormhole I don’t wish to go down and something that it’s easier to deny knowledge about given Mrs Eek’s areas
    That sounds like a Brexit positive then. 👍

    So not only are we not paying subsidies to French farmers anymore, we've rid ourselves of half the burden of subsidising British ones too. Fantastic!
  • Pulpstar said:

    Cases by specimen date here - crikey

    Pure casedemic.

    Meanwhile "deaths" are still trending down according to latest data though that may be disrupted by the holidays.

    As a leading indicator, patients in MV beds is still trending down too. As first spotted by @Alistair in SA weeks ago I think that's still the case here.
    I hope you're correct - and there are indications that is the case.

    But if you're wrong, it's going to be really, really nasty.
    However much Doctor Death says "let them die" it isn't just about his personal quest for bodies. Omicron presents a significant and growing threat to business and services due to staff absence. When you are infected with Covid, you are not going to work. Cases are well past 100k a day, we'll see 150k and then some. That's a lot of people not going to work for a week...
    Not going to work for a week is better than not going to work for three months.

    Though its worth remembering too as to whether its people not going to work for a week because they're actually sick and bed bound, or not going to work for a week due to regulations. If its the latter, that's fixable.
  • eek said:

    Fascinating interview with George Eustice, England’s Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs on R4 Today.

    Farmers are not happy bunnies regarding, among other things, the free trade deal with Australia.

    Can’t see many farmers switching straight to Labour, but could we see widespread protest via:

    - abstaining?
    - voting LibDem in England and Wales?
    - voting SNP in Scotland?

    A lot will depend on how the Tory party responds.

    At the moment they have patronising lickspittles like David Duguid telling farmers and fishermen that actually Brexit has been brilliant and actually naysayer voices like Banff and Buchan famers and fishermen are ignoring all the amazing things he and his government are doing. Unsurprisingly this seat will fall to the SNP according to the polls.

    If the government keep saying Don't Look Up to businesses and rural communities they are going to get pummelled. They know that we remain completely aligned to the single market and customs union and that it is only the government tying them in knots and threatening their subsidies threatening their way of life. They will vote for parties who will fix this.

    Or, the government wakes up. Realises the ERG have led them down the garden path. And take a giant pair of scissors to "european" red tape and claim victory as they free business and farmers and fishermen from pointless red tape done by that failed lying clown who has just been fired.
    Subsidises have been cut in half and the criteria for them has completely changed. I don’t have the details as that’s a wormhole I don’t wish to go down and something that it’s easier to deny knowledge about given Mrs Eek’s areas
    That sounds like a Brexit positive then. 👍

    So not only are we not paying subsidies to French farmers anymore, we've rid ourselves of half the burden of subsidising British ones too. Fantastic!
    Most British farms will no longer be economically viable and will stop producing food! Fantastic!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    edited December 2021

    moonshine said:

    jonny83 said:

    I am expecting a spike in cases in the vulnerable groups and over 60s soon. They hunkered down with the rise of Omicron prior to Christmas but then obviously and naturally met up with family and friends during the festive period.

    Then you probably will see a spike when the school's go back, Omicron can easily 'reinfect' and there are million of kids out there to spread it about.

    Some difficult days ahead for sure.

    Know someone who came down with rona a couple of months ago while double vaxxed. Since had a booster. Tested positive again a week or so ago, after a bet with his wife that he couldn’t possibly have it again, this time only with a scratchy throat that wouldn’t have interfered with his day were it not for govt mandated isolation requirements.

    The only way out of this looks to me to totally let rip in a boosted population, by stopping the continual testing and the self isolation of positive cases and removing all other mandates like masks. Otherwise we’re going to be talking about this forever. And just treat this as another annoying virus that you get every year or so.

    Sensible precautions ahead of time should be made, for what is largely a reverse psyops campaign given the low hospital stats caused by omicron. FFP3 masks for the clinically vulnerable that want them, 4th doses for them if they’re past 12 weeks, anti virals and oximeters already sitting in their bathroom cabinets.

    It wouldn’t go down well with the scaredy cats (you know who you are). But so what. Time to rip off the plaster.
    The basic problem with "rip off the plaster" is this. "a scratchy throat that wouldn’t have interfered with his day" is perfectly capable of making someone seriously ill or dead. Or scores of people ill enough to not be at work. People with critical jobs.

    When people have Covid - even if they are lucky enough to only have a scratchy throat - they need to self-isolate to protect *other people*.

    I really struggle with how this rather basic consideration seems to pass some of you by.
    Some of the sentiment expressed on PB concerning the elderly - not by moonshine here, I stress - has sounded uncomfortably like something Dr Shipman might express in a police interview (though, in reality, IIRC he kept shtum). Unintentional, I trust.

    Edit: I'm sure it was in the heat of the debate, but even so ...
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114

    eek said:

    Fascinating interview with George Eustice, England’s Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs on R4 Today.

    Farmers are not happy bunnies regarding, among other things, the free trade deal with Australia.

    Can’t see many farmers switching straight to Labour, but could we see widespread protest via:

    - abstaining?
    - voting LibDem in England and Wales?
    - voting SNP in Scotland?

    A lot will depend on how the Tory party responds.

    At the moment they have patronising lickspittles like David Duguid telling farmers and fishermen that actually Brexit has been brilliant and actually naysayer voices like Banff and Buchan famers and fishermen are ignoring all the amazing things he and his government are doing. Unsurprisingly this seat will fall to the SNP according to the polls.

    If the government keep saying Don't Look Up to businesses and rural communities they are going to get pummelled. They know that we remain completely aligned to the single market and customs union and that it is only the government tying them in knots and threatening their subsidies threatening their way of life. They will vote for parties who will fix this.

    Or, the government wakes up. Realises the ERG have led them down the garden path. And take a giant pair of scissors to "european" red tape and claim victory as they free business and farmers and fishermen from pointless red tape done by that failed lying clown who has just been fired.
    Subsidises have been cut in half and the criteria for them has completely changed. I don’t have the details as that’s a wormhole I don’t wish to go down and something that it’s easier to deny knowledge about given Mrs Eek’s areas
    That sounds like a Brexit positive then. 👍

    So not only are we not paying subsidies to French farmers anymore, we've rid ourselves of half the burden of subsidising British ones too. Fantastic!
    Most British farms will no longer be economically viable and will stop producing food! Fantastic!
    We really need to be producing more food here not less.

    Subsidies are a fact of life.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    eek said:

    Fascinating interview with George Eustice, England’s Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs on R4 Today.

    Farmers are not happy bunnies regarding, among other things, the free trade deal with Australia.

    Can’t see many farmers switching straight to Labour, but could we see widespread protest via:

    - abstaining?
    - voting LibDem in England and Wales?
    - voting SNP in Scotland?

    A lot will depend on how the Tory party responds.

    At the moment they have patronising lickspittles like David Duguid telling farmers and fishermen that actually Brexit has been brilliant and actually naysayer voices like Banff and Buchan famers and fishermen are ignoring all the amazing things he and his government are doing. Unsurprisingly this seat will fall to the SNP according to the polls.

    If the government keep saying Don't Look Up to businesses and rural communities they are going to get pummelled. They know that we remain completely aligned to the single market and customs union and that it is only the government tying them in knots and threatening their subsidies threatening their way of life. They will vote for parties who will fix this.

    Or, the government wakes up. Realises the ERG have led them down the garden path. And take a giant pair of scissors to "european" red tape and claim victory as they free business and farmers and fishermen from pointless red tape done by that failed lying clown who has just been fired.
    Subsidises have been cut in half and the criteria for them has completely changed. I don’t have the details as that’s a wormhole I don’t wish to go down and something that it’s easier to deny knowledge about given Mrs Eek’s areas
    That sounds like a Brexit positive then. 👍

    So not only are we not paying subsidies to French farmers anymore, we've rid ourselves of half the burden of subsidising British ones too. Fantastic!
    Most British farms will no longer be economically viable and will stop producing food! Fantastic!
    Which terrifies me. Seaman's strike? Fuel crisis? Hostile action? Sabotage in the docks? A huge dereliction of elementary responsibility.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Cases by specimen date here - crikey

    Pure casedemic.

    Meanwhile "deaths" are still trending down according to latest data though that may be disrupted by the holidays.

    As a leading indicator, patients in MV beds is still trending down too. As first spotted by @Alistair in SA weeks ago I think that's still the case here.
    I hope you're correct - and there are indications that is the case.

    But if you're wrong, it's going to be really, really nasty.
    However much Doctor Death says "let them die" it isn't just about his personal quest for bodies. Omicron presents a significant and growing threat to business and services due to staff absence. When you are infected with Covid, you are not going to work. Cases are well past 100k a day, we'll see 150k and then some. That's a lot of people not going to work for a week...
    Not going to work for a week is better than not going to work for three months.

    Though its worth remembering too as to whether its people not going to work for a week because they're actually sick and bed bound, or not going to work for a week due to regulations. If its the latter, that's fixable.
    They're not going to work because they're not sociopathic twunts. You want to kill people, they don't.
This discussion has been closed.