Categories
Poll suggests that the LAB lead would be just 3% with PM Sunak – politicalbetting.com
Poll suggests that the LAB lead would be just 3% with PM Sunak – politicalbetting.com
With just the possibility of a Tory leadership election then we should expect more “named leader” polling as featured in the Guardian this morning. This, I should state, is a very controversial form of polling that is likely to come under fire from supporters of those Tory figures, including Johnson, who come out of this badly.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Cool. I can cuddle up in bed now. 👩❤️💋👩
PS would be rude of me not to comment on the header. I understand Mike, but I can hear Bruce Forsyth saying, just a bit of fun, just a bit of fun.
I presume we translate these figures by adding a zero or two on the end....no way they would be going full wuhan repeat for couple hundred cases. Only one family member allowed out for food every other day and that's it.
Can, or must ?
It's very dodgy polling - but at the same time carries great persuasive weight.
If those numbers are repeated in a month's time, Johnson is likely to be gone quite soon.
Trouble is there is no obvious candidate. Assuming Buttler will now (finally) be replaced by Foakes the latter might be a possibility. But all the senior players in the current side are surely ruled out as it’s unlikely many of them other than Root (set to resign) and Stokes (too busy, not too well) will be playing next summer.
Edit - and yes, this is a leading question but the results are very striking. Johnson nearly as unpopular as Gove is pretty damning.
What's hard about this kind of response is that the government needs to get people to change their behaviour even though the chances of you as an individual getting sick are very low. So you for it to work you need the population to either be irrationally hypochondriac, very considerate, or government-controllable.
The other implication is that the policy is easier to implement if people think they're more likely to get sick, so if you were going to lie about the scale of the outbreak, you'd be better lying on the upside than lying on the downside.
The general public don’t follow politics as much as those on a politics forum. They’ll likely know of Johnson, Sunak, Javid, and Gove, but not anyone else in the cabinet. Truss is popular with the Conservative members for her work on trade, but not particularly well known generally.
I’m expecting Sunak’s star to fall pretty quickly in the new year, once handouts and tax cuts are replaced with tax rises, spending cuts, mortgage rate rises and utility bill rises.
On topic, Gove is a known known to many, and it's pretty obvious he's 'marmite'. Slightly surprised about Truss, but she does strike me at any rate as a somewhat likely to follow, not lead. And I think the comments about 'lazy British' will come back to haunt her.
Sunak, however, hasn't really been challenged in public debate, nor has he been in a position where he's been at risk of having to make unpopular decisions. PrO the he has, he's made popular ones.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/12/01/your-regular-reminder-that-hypothetical-polls-can-be-as-accurate-as-an-american-war-film/
Next F1 race director is probably a dead cert for January, and next Man Utd manager for the end of the season. England cricket will be looking for a new captain and a new head coach.
We (or at least I...) often go on about the cost of infrastructure here in the UK. The video below is technical, but shows quite how costs can escalate as you examine existing structures for reuse.
As part of the East-West Rail project between Bletchley and Oxford, the Bletchley flyover needed updating. This was a concrete structure in the centre of Bletchley, crossing the West Coast Main Line and local roads. Whilst it had been mothballed for long periods in the past, until recently it was carrying heavy freight trains. The project started off as an attempt to renovate the structure, but eventually became a full-scale project to replace large sections of it - with the cost increasing accordingly. The decision to rebuild large parts of it garnered criticism - but from watching the video, it is hard to disagree with it.
The reasons portions of it had to be rebuilt:
*) Improved standards and structural knowledge over sixty years
*) Poor construction
*) Age deterioration despite maintenance
*) Increased risks from and to the railway underneath the structure.
Working with old structures is difficult. Working with old concrete structures is really difficult, especially in constrained localities.
Also interestingly, I don't think Covid was mentioned as a difficulty wrt the work, despite it all the work being done during the crisis.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uaLN875LJ8I
I've said before that the only thing that politicians may understand is the threat to use the same legislation against them. So perhaps someone should start a campaign to revoke the citizenship of the cabinet with foreign ancestry, after they have left office.
This story has now been picked up widely. Nasa has sponsored 24 theologians to study societal reaction to a hypothetical discovery of intelligent alien life.
Story comes after Nasa Administrator Bill Nelson’s startling recent comments when asked what he thought UAP were.
Meanwhile "deaths" are still trending down according to latest data though that may be disrupted by the holidays.
As a leading indicator, patients in MV beds is still trending down too. As first spotted by @Alistair in SA weeks ago I think that's still the case here.
But if you're wrong, it's going to be really, really nasty.
Then you probably will see a spike when the school's go back, Omicron can easily 'reinfect' and there are million of kids out there to spread it about.
Some difficult days ahead for sure.
I've been saying for ages that Sunak is the Tories only shot at winning the next election and this just for fun poll backs that up. And don't worry about the tax rises of death coming up. He'll blame Peppa and take the edge off them with shiny shiny aimed specifically at red wall grafters.
While Kellner's comment is made in relation to Johnson, he could just as easily have used the same data to conclude that Starmer is now in general a significant benefit to Labour fortunes, given that named leader polling substantially increases the Labour lead against all but one actual or potential Conservative PM
Extras for captain when Root stands down?
I've just seen Scott Boland's bowling figures.
(Pretty much any other way of writing it out gets ambiguous)
The only way out of this looks to me to totally let rip in a boosted population, by stopping the continual testing and the self isolation of positive cases and removing all other mandates like masks. Otherwise we’re going to be talking about this forever. And just treat this as another annoying virus that you get every year or so.
Sensible precautions ahead of time should be made, for what is largely a reverse psyops campaign given the low hospital stats caused by omicron. FFP3 masks for the clinically vulnerable that want them, 4th doses for them if they’re past 12 weeks, anti virals and oximeters already sitting in their bathroom cabinets.
It wouldn’t go down well with the scaredy cats (you know who you are). But so what. Time to rip off the plaster.
This is merely an extension of that.
"Australia: Hundreds given false Covid results in Sydney lab error"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-59752091
Well, it's one way of making your positive test figures look better...
You need the policies AND the trust.
Just like SA.
Just sayin.
The perhaps more interesting finding is that Truss appears to do even worse!
Gove also, but then that’s less unexpected. Gove is one of those politicians who, however capable a minister they might be, is never going to appeal to voters in a media age.
Mr. Eagles, if you ever feel down, just remember the 2021 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix and it'll soon soothe your troubled spirit.
Farmers are not happy bunnies regarding, among other things, the free trade deal with Australia.
Can’t see many farmers switching straight to Labour, but could we see widespread protest via:
- abstaining?
- voting LibDem in England and Wales?
- voting SNP in Scotland?
LastPass users getting alerted of random logins using CORRECT master passwords from foreign IPs
- Possibly credential stuffing from old LastPass breach
- Possibly Log4j fallout
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29705957
And yes you do need a password management tool as every one of your online passwords should be different but there are tools beyond LasPass. Bitwarden is free
Difficult to replace the specialists in these circumstances.
If Peppa remains Prime Minister then yes of course that is what Number 10 will try to do. But we're talking about Peppa having been hounded out of office in disgrace. Everything humanly possible will be strapped to him as he is thrown out of office. Every unpopular policy, every questionable decision, they will all have been the doing of Peppa or preferably Carrie.
That no other English batsman is within 1100 runs is astonishing and damning.
I pointed out a couple of weeks ago the impact the Australia deal (and CAP replacement schemes) would be and that impact is only beginning to be noticed and felt by farmers. They won’t by themselves change a seat but the farmer / rural vote is way more than the 0.5% HYUFD claims it to be.
England winning the cricket world cup in those nerve shredding circumstances I can recall and Liverpool winning the Champions League, one year after losing the final in heart breaking circumstances.
2019 - Corner taken quickly and I was there.
Naming the leaders is a reminder about the present, and prompts people to re-evaluate depending on those leaders and any recent events with which they’ve been associated in the news.
Last night I watched the first episode of this year's Worlds Strongest Man (a Christmas tradition in our family). Travis Ortmayer was one of the competitors, the first time he had appeared in ten years. It turns out he has had quite a battle with addiction to painkillers and crystal meth.
It could happen to any of us...
https://muscleandhealth.com/the-painkiller-subscription-that-turned-travis-ortmayer-into-a-homeless-meth-addict/
I think this is common to a lot of the tribal, non political voters, of all political flavours. Most people do not engage with politics. That’s why when a story breaks out of the geeks and pundits and into the real world, you know it’s big.
My family, unprompted, have been slaughtering Johnson over Christmas.
It’s over for him, just the end game to play out.
At the moment they have patronising lickspittles like David Duguid telling farmers and fishermen that actually Brexit has been brilliant and actually naysayer voices like Banff and Buchan famers and fishermen are ignoring all the amazing things he and his government are doing. Unsurprisingly this seat will fall to the SNP according to the polls.
If the government keep saying Don't Look Up to businesses and rural communities they are going to get pummelled. They know that we remain completely aligned to the single market and customs union and that it is only the government tying them in knots and threatening their subsidies threatening their way of life. They will vote for parties who will fix this.
Or, the government wakes up. Realises the ERG have led them down the garden path. And take a giant pair of scissors to "european" red tape and claim victory as they free business and farmers and fishermen from pointless red tape done by that failed lying clown who has just been fired.
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/scotland/2190229/without-a-doubt-some-will-call-it-a-day-warns-east-neuk-prawn-fisherman-as-covid-19-and-brexit-impact-bites/
First Ashes triumph I'd seen, plus the Istanbul Champions League Final.
When people have Covid - even if they are lucky enough to only have a scratchy throat - they need to self-isolate to protect *other people*.
I really struggle with how this rather basic consideration seems to pass some of you by.
That was Silverwood's last ever game for England. He was "Absent, hurt" for the second innings.
So not only are we not paying subsidies to French farmers anymore, we've rid ourselves of half the burden of subsidising British ones too. Fantastic!
Though its worth remembering too as to whether its people not going to work for a week because they're actually sick and bed bound, or not going to work for a week due to regulations. If its the latter, that's fixable.
Edit: I'm sure it was in the heat of the debate, but even so ...
Subsidies are a fact of life.