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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Half of those who told YouGov that they’ll vote UKIP in the May Euros supported the Tories at GE210

UKIP WAS included in the opening prompt for YouGov's EP2014 poll & firm indicates possible change for Westminster http://t.co/J61mBrOrCf

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Ah this explains Ed's leaking today.

A senior Labour figure today warned Ed Miliband that his plan to reset his party’s relationship with the unions is a "disaster waiting to happen".

He predicted the Labour leader was likely to “get a kicking” regardless of whether or not he can strike a deal with union chiefs. And the prospect of any agreement weakened today when GMB union leader Paul Kenny said discussions with Labour on reform had “broken down”.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband-set-for-a-kicking-over-his-union-reform-plan-9063998.html

DaemonBarber

What was the equivalent before the last Euros? Is this a jump up or in line with past performance?

TheScreamingEagles

I suspect the Euros (and locals) will be even more of a bloodbath for the Tories than I expected

TheScreamingEagles

Interesting that the headline figure and the certain to vote figure shows Lab ahead

Labour 13/8 with William Hill for Labour to win the Euros has to be value?

Socrates

@SouthamObserver

That's a terrible system. It's ripe for ethnic interest groups managing to get special approvals for a month plus, because schools in such areas need to be "culturally sensitive", while those in more integrated areas wanting far less time off (just a two week holiday), don't get this option. Particularly for kids who already are falling behind/with special needs, it hurts their prospects further. There are ten weeks of school holiday a year, including six weeks in the summer. That's plenty of time to visit family. Anyone else should be treated equally, whether or not they get to buy off the headmaster.

RichardNabavi

TheScreamingEagles said:

A senior Labour figure today warned Ed Miliband that his plan to reset his party’s relationship with the unions is a "disaster waiting to happen".

Well, what a surprise. A very non-senior and definitely not Labour figure, namely me, said much the same in these august pages, as did many others.

They'll find some formula for fudging it, and of course voters won't care a fig anyway, but it will add to the strains within the Labour Party and weaken Ed's position further, and probably damage funding as well.

AndyJS

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting that the headline figure and the certain to vote figure shows Lab ahead

Labour 13/8 with William Hill for Labour to win the Euros has to be value?

Not really, UKIP are bound to improve in the last few weeks before the election.

MarkSenior

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting that the headline figure and the certain to vote figure shows Lab ahead

Labour 13/8 with William Hill for Labour to win the Euros has to be value?

Not really, UKIP are bound to improve in the last few weeks before the election.

WHY ????

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting that the headline figure and the certain to vote figure shows Lab ahead

Labour 13/8 with William Hill for Labour to win the Euros has to be value?

Certainly not. I wouldn't touch those prices with a bargepole (or my wallet, more importantly).

Lennon

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting that the headline figure and the certain to vote figure shows Lab ahead

Labour 13/8 with William Hill for Labour to win the Euros has to be value?

With your current form, who am I to dissuade you. However, I would compare the Lab % of the Vote in the first poll before the Euros in 2009 with the actual vote achieved. (It dropped. Lots.)

TheScreamingEagles

Lennon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting that the headline figure and the certain to vote figure shows Lab ahead

Labour 13/8 with William Hill for Labour to win the Euros has to be value?

With your current form, who am I to dissuade you. However, I would compare the Lab % of the Vote in the first poll before the Euros in 2009 with the actual vote achieved. (It dropped. Lots.)

The problem with the 2009 polling was there was a major event that dominated the latter part of the campaign and damaged the three main Westminster parties and boosted UKIP

MrJones

So, say 5 from Con to Ukip followed by 5 anti-Ukip from Con to Labour plus another 6 from LD/Green as a reaction to Ukip being ahead would give Labour 43 to Ukip 35 (minus Labour malingerers from their initial score say 4 points) -> 39 Labour vs 35 Ukip.

ooo er

Neil

MarkSenior said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting that the headline figure and the certain to vote figure shows Lab ahead

Labour 13/8 with William Hill for Labour to win the Euros has to be value?

Not really, UKIP are bound to improve in the last few weeks before the election.

WHY ????

They always do? People are more inclined to vote for them when Euro elections are looming.

Morris_Dancer

F1: Ecclestone to go on trial in Germany:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25756973

Quincel

MarkSenior said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting that the headline figure and the certain to vote figure shows Lab ahead

Labour 13/8 with William Hill for Labour to win the Euros has to be value?

Not really, UKIP are bound to improve in the last few weeks before the election.

WHY ????

Obviously we can't be certain, but the entire election campaign will be fought on UKIP's issues. The EU will be in the picture, and the public only really trust UKIP on that. Immigration will be back, and even though no Romanians are actually coming people still think the 3 parties have failed and only UKIP have credibility. There's a reason EP elections are such home turf for UKIP.

Cookie

When is the Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election likely to be? Good news for UKIP if it coincides with the campaign (such as it is) for the European Parliament?

MrJones

Quincel said:

MarkSenior said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting that the headline figure and the certain to vote figure shows Lab ahead

Labour 13/8 with William Hill for Labour to win the Euros has to be value?

Not really, UKIP are bound to improve in the last few weeks before the election.

WHY ????

Obviously we can't be certain, but the entire election campaign will be fought on UKIP's issues. The EU will be in the picture, and the public only really trust UKIP on that. Immigration will be back, and even though no Romanians are actually coming people still think the 3 parties have failed and only UKIP have credibility. There's a reason EP elections are such home turf for UKIP.

My rellies meet loads of Romanians.

AndyJS

UKIP usually improve in the final few weeks.

Of course it's possible it won't happen this time because they're already doing so much better in the polls at this early stage.

Neil

Cookie said:

When is the Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election likely to be? Good news for UKIP if it coincides with the campaign (such as it is) for the European Parliament?

One suspects it will be a short campaign.

I believe the funeral is today so the writ will probably be moved next week?

anotherDave

DaemonBarber said:

What was the equivalent before the last Euros? Is this a jump up or in line with past performance?

Jan 2009 YouGov.
Con 35%, Lab 29%, LD 15%, UKIP 7%

Result
Con 28%, Lab 16%, LD 14%, UKIP 16%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)#Opinion_polls

TheScreamingEagles

Four reasons Ed Miliband is still a good opposition leader

His approval ratings may have dipped again, but Miliband has a foundation from which he can rise to No 10

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/16/ed-miliband-opposition-leader-approval-ratings?CMP=twt_gu

MarkSenior

Neil said:

MarkSenior said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting that the headline figure and the certain to vote figure shows Lab ahead

Labour 13/8 with William Hill for Labour to win the Euros has to be value?

Not really, UKIP are bound to improve in the last few weeks before the election.

WHY ????

They always do? People are more inclined to vote for them when Euro elections are looming.

Yougov polling immediately prior to the 2009 EU elections slightly overestimated the UKIP voting percentage .

Neil

MarkSenior said:

Neil said:

MarkSenior said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting that the headline figure and the certain to vote figure shows Lab ahead

Labour 13/8 with William Hill for Labour to win the Euros has to be value?

Not really, UKIP are bound to improve in the last few weeks before the election.

WHY ????

They always do? People are more inclined to vote for them when Euro elections are looming.

Yougov polling immediately prior to the 2009 EU elections slightly overestimated the UKIP voting percentage .

So? We're not comparing to eve-of-election polls. There are many sound reasons for believing that UKIP's polling will improve in the run-up to a Euro election.

AndyJS

I think Labour will hold the by-election as soon as possible in order to avoid the UKIP momentum usually associated with Euro polls.

AveryLP

Neil said:

MarkSenior said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting that the headline figure and the certain to vote figure shows Lab ahead

Labour 13/8 with William Hill for Labour to win the Euros has to be value?

Not really, UKIP are bound to improve in the last few weeks before the election.

WHY ????

They always do? People are more inclined to vote for them when Euro elections are looming.

Provided AGW doesn't play silly b*ggers with the weather, rising temperatures should increase the UKIP vote.

A little bit of early May sunshine should see the kippers cast off their thermals and shun the risk of hypothermia.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Lennon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting that the headline figure and the certain to vote figure shows Lab ahead

Labour 13/8 with William Hill for Labour to win the Euros has to be value?

With your current form, who am I to dissuade you. However, I would compare the Lab % of the Vote in the first poll before the Euros in 2009 with the actual vote achieved. (It dropped. Lots.)

The problem with the 2009 polling was there was a major event that dominated the latter part of the campaign and damaged the three main Westminster parties and boosted UKIP

Interestingly, though, the Lib Dem vote hardly moved from 2004-2009. It has stayed pretty consistently in the 13%-16% bracket since 1999. There does seem to be a (small) market for them at the euros - the keen Europhiles who recognise they are the pro-EU party. And this is one area where their supporters wouldn't tend to point to where they've 'sold out'. It wouldn't surprise me if the Lib Dem vote didn't drop too much this time either.

Strangely, even UKIP's vote didn't move up very much. It was the Tory and Labour vote (particularly Labour) that got hit the most.

Although none of those 'events' are likely this year. Labour have always tended to outpoll their actual performance in the election. Furthermore, there is virtually no coverage of the euros at the moment, so the focus isn't there. Also, as (antifrank?) said Miliband has tended to underperform in his other elections to date. The libdem squeeze (I think) won't be as great. And I see little evidence of 'trust' returning to the big parties - the anger is still there - it's just now there is a very clear rallying point unlike the scattergun of last time. And that's UKIP.

RodCrosby

anotherDave said:

Jan 2009 YouGov.
Con 35%, Lab 29%, LD 15%, UKIP 7%

Result
Con 28%, Lab 16%, LD 14%, UKIP 16%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)#Opinion_polls

The Big Two underperformed collectively by 20%. Astonishing...

CarlottaVance

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: Ecclestone to go on trial in Germany:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25756973

Will he call Blair as a character witness? After all, Tony is "a pretty straight kinda guy...."

MarkSenior

Quincel said:

MarkSenior said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting that the headline figure and the certain to vote figure shows Lab ahead

Labour 13/8 with William Hill for Labour to win the Euros has to be value?

Not really, UKIP are bound to improve in the last few weeks before the election.

WHY ????

Obviously we can't be certain, but the entire election campaign will be fought on UKIP's issues. The EU will be in the picture, and the public only really trust UKIP on that. Immigration will be back, and even though no Romanians are actually coming people still think the 3 parties have failed and only UKIP have credibility. There's a reason EP elections are such home turf for UKIP.

Those reasons are factored into UKIP's current polling position and are therefore not certain to increase their Voting % this time . The increase in their vote in 2009 came from the expenses scandal prior to the 2009 campaign starting . The campaign itself had the UKIP vote at best static or possibly according to Yougov falling back a touch .

TheScreamingEagles

I'm on

Oddschecker ‏@Oddschecker 1m

Murray 2 sets up but 4-1 down in the 3rd, Millot still evens to win the set & 100/1 to stun the Scot - http://bit.ly/1m8IvpB

Is with Paddy Power and Coral.

TOPPING

It would be excellent if UKIP did brilliantly at the euros.

I think the collective reaction would be:

"you mean these people [F&Ls] are now representing us, Britain, me??"

And then people will wake up and promptly, come GE2015, vote them to way <5%.

Morris_Dancer

Miss Vance, no idea. It'll be interesting to see how the debate about his successor goes. If he wins he'll keep his job for a while yet, but he's knocking on a bit.

MrJones

TOPPING said:

It would be excellent if UKIP did brilliantly at the euros.

I think the collective reaction would be:

"you mean these people [F&Ls] are now representing us, Britain, me??"

And then people will wake up and promptly, come GE2015, vote them to way <5%.</p>

Which part of the bogus crime stats do you think is most wrong?

MarkSenior

Neil said:

MarkSenior said:

Neil said:

MarkSenior said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting that the headline figure and the certain to vote figure shows Lab ahead

Labour 13/8 with William Hill for Labour to win the Euros has to be value?

Not really, UKIP are bound to improve in the last few weeks before the election.

WHY ????

They always do? People are more inclined to vote for them when Euro elections are looming.

Yougov polling immediately prior to the 2009 EU elections slightly overestimated the UKIP voting percentage .

So? We're not comparing to eve-of-election polls. There are many sound reasons for believing that UKIP's polling will improve in the run-up to a Euro election.

Which are ????

RichardNabavi

RodCrosby said:

anotherDave said:

Jan 2009 YouGov.
Con 35%, Lab 29%, LD 15%, UKIP 7%

Result
Con 28%, Lab 16%, LD 14%, UKIP 16%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)#Opinion_polls

The Big Two underperformed collectively by 20%. Astonishing...

And yet UKIP overperformed only by 9%. That's also a surprise in retrospect, with other Others getting 26% rather than the 14% YouGov had found in January.

DaemonBarber

anotherDave said:

DaemonBarber said:

What was the equivalent before the last Euros? Is this a jump up or in line with past performance?

Jan 2009 YouGov.
Con 35%, Lab 29%, LD 15%, UKIP 7%

Result
Con 28%, Lab 16%, LD 14%, UKIP 16%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)#Opinion_polls

Thanks for that!

I'm more interested in the equivalent figures for how the UKIP results in 2009 Euros split from the GE? Are more Tories saying they''ll vote UKIP now than actually did in 2009?

Basically, is the 50% of the certain to vote UKIP total similar to the actual share from the last election? I don't know if the figures are even available, but my guess would be that they are roughly equivalent... That is the headline isn't exactly shocking.

Neil

MarkSenior said:

Those reasons are factored into UKIP's current polling position

Not necessarily, most people arent paying attention, they will be more prominent when the Euro elections loom and UKIP are given far more coverage to go on about them. Have you maxed out on Lab to win the Euros?

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Lennon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting that the headline figure and the certain to vote figure shows Lab ahead

Labour 13/8 with William Hill for Labour to win the Euros has to be value?

With your current form, who am I to dissuade you. However, I would compare the Lab % of the Vote in the first poll before the Euros in 2009 with the actual vote achieved. (It dropped. Lots.)

The problem with the 2009 polling was there was a major event that dominated the latter part of the campaign and damaged the three main Westminster parties and boosted UKIP

Interestingly, though, the Lib Dem vote hardly moved from 2004-2009. It has stayed pretty consistently in the 13%-16% bracket since 1999. There does seem to be a (small) market for them at the euros - the keen Europhiles who recognise they are the pro-EU party. And this is one area where their supporters wouldn't tend to point to where they've 'sold out'. It wouldn't surprise me if the Lib Dem vote didn't drop too much this time either.

Strangely, even UKIP's vote didn't move up very much. It was the Tory and Labour vote (particularly Labour) that got hit the most.

Although none of those 'events' are likely this year. Labour have always tended to outpoll their actual performance in the election. Furthermore, there is virtually no coverage of the euros at the moment, so the focus isn't there. Also, as (antifrank?) said Miliband has tended to underperform in his other elections to date. The libdem squeeze (I think) won't be as great. And I see little evidence of 'trust' returning to the big parties - the anger is still there - it's just now there is a very clear rallying point unlike the scattergun of last time. And that's UKIP.

Mr Royale, welcome back.

2009 was weird, and Labour were led by well Gordon Brown, who released that video during the campaign

MarkSenior

Neil said:

MarkSenior said:

Those reasons are factored into UKIP's current polling position

Not necessarily, most people arent paying attention, they will be more prominent when the Euro elections loom and UKIP are given far more coverage to go on about them. Have you maxed out on Lab to win the Euros?

I have no bets on the EU elections on anybody .

TOPPING

MrJones said:

TOPPING said:

It would be excellent if UKIP did brilliantly at the euros.

I think the collective reaction would be:

"you mean these people [F&Ls] are now representing us, Britain, me??"

And then people will wake up and promptly, come GE2015, vote them to way <5%.</p>

Which part of the bogus crime stats do you think is most wrong?

the "bogus" part

TheScreamingEagles

Here's that Gordon Brown expenses video

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/apr/29/gordon-brown-youtube-video

MrJones

TOPPING said:

MrJones said:

TOPPING said:

It would be excellent if UKIP did brilliantly at the euros.

I think the collective reaction would be:

"you mean these people [F&Ls] are now representing us, Britain, me??"

And then people will wake up and promptly, come GE2015, vote them to way <5%.</p>

Which part of the bogus crime stats do you think is most wrong?

the "bogus" part

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25648832

http://www.gazette-news.co.uk/news/10831913.Whistleblower_claims_crimes_kept_off_the_books_in_Essex/

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2540003/Its-official-Crime-numbers-NOT-trusted-statistics-watchdog-strips-police-data-seal-approval.html

etc

JosiasJessop

MrJones said:

TOPPING said:

It would be excellent if UKIP did brilliantly at the euros.

I think the collective reaction would be:

"you mean these people [F&Ls] are now representing us, Britain, me??"

And then people will wake up and promptly, come GE2015, vote them to way <5%.</p>

Which part of the bogus crime stats do you think is most wrong?

There are two crime measures in E&W. The crime survey of England and Wales, and the recorded crime figures.

The latter of these has run into troubles that need some swift sorting out. However, both metrics show similar trends, with crimes generally falling over a number of years.

I can imagine the police recorded figures being manipulated in some arch conspiracy, but it's much harder to imagine both being manipulated.

We might just have to face it: there are less crimes being committed than was the case. That's not a reason to take out eyes of the ball, but it's a good sign. The fear of crime has also decreased.

richardDodd

Rachel "Robot" Reeves and Chris Bryant, a matching pair of prats...Order- Order

MrJones

JosiasJessop said:

MrJones said:

TOPPING said:

It would be excellent if UKIP did brilliantly at the euros.

I think the collective reaction would be:

"you mean these people [F&Ls] are now representing us, Britain, me??"

And then people will wake up and promptly, come GE2015, vote them to way <5%.</p>

Which part of the bogus crime stats do you think is most wrong?

There are two crime measures in E&W. The crime survey of England and Wales, and the recorded crime figures.

The latter of these has run into troubles that need some swift sorting out. However, both metrics show similar trends, with crimes generally falling over a number of years.

I can imagine the police recorded figures being manipulated in some arch conspiracy, but it's much harder to imagine both being manipulated.

We might just have to face it: there are less crimes being committed than was the case. That's not a reason to take out eyes of the ball, but it's a good sign. The fear of crime has also decreased.

Yes. If the police stats are being fiddled downwards then the crime survey must be also.

edit: As crime is decreasing in a lot of places and increasing in others (more or less proportional to the decrease or increase in the numbers of young men aged 14-24) then the easiest way would be fiddling the areas where the surveys were taken.

TheScreamingEagles

Murray wins his match, 18 mins after some numpty backed his opponent.

edmundintokyo

RodCrosby said:

anotherDave said:

Jan 2009 YouGov.
Con 35%, Lab 29%, LD 15%, UKIP 7%

Result
Con 28%, Lab 16%, LD 14%, UKIP 16%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)#Opinion_polls

The Big Two underperformed collectively by 20%. Astonishing...

Related to prompting, I guess. I'm not sure if they're prompting for UKIP in Euro polls nowdays, but even if they're not they've probably had enough coverage that people will think of them spontaneously. This isn't true of Green/Pirate/Respect.

Beyond UKIP the remaining small parties are mostly on the left, so it seems like there's a lot of downside to the Labour score.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, you've had 16 winning bets at least this year and just missed on a 100/1 shot. Cease complaining!

Simon and Cilic have gone to a final set decider.

JosiasJessop

MrJones said:

JosiasJessop said:

MrJones said:

TOPPING said:

It would be excellent if UKIP did brilliantly at the euros.

I think the collective reaction would be:

"you mean these people [F&Ls] are now representing us, Britain, me??"

And then people will wake up and promptly, come GE2015, vote them to way <5%.</p>

Which part of the bogus crime stats do you think is most wrong?

There are two crime measures in E&W. The crime survey of England and Wales, and the recorded crime figures.

The latter of these has run into troubles that need some swift sorting out. However, both metrics show similar trends, with crimes generally falling over a number of years.

I can imagine the police recorded figures being manipulated in some arch conspiracy, but it's much harder to imagine both being manipulated.

We might just have to face it: there are less crimes being committed than was the case. That's not a reason to take out eyes of the ball, but it's a good sign. The fear of crime has also decreased.

Yes. If the police stats are being fiddled downwards then the crime survey must be also.

edit: As crime is decreasing in a lot of places and increasing in others (more or less proportional to the decrease or increase in the numbers of young men aged 14-24) then the easiest way would be fiddling the areas where the surveys were taken.

That's quite an accusation. Do you care to take off your tinfoil hat and provide some proof?

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, you've had 16 winning bets at least this year and just missed on a 100/1 shot. Cease complaining!

Simon and Cilic have gone to a final set decider.

I don't think he won a point after I backed him.

JackW

I think Murray won the last 23 points !!

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, you've had 16 winning bets at least this year and just missed on a 100/1 shot. Cease complaining!

Simon and Cilic have gone to a final set decider.

I don't think he won a point after I backed him.

Was it value though ?

The 1/1000 offered on Murray certainly wasn't !

Theuniondivvie

TheScreamingEagles said:

Murray wins his match, 18 mins after some numpty backed his opponent.

Thanks for doing that, had a few nervous minutes.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, you've had 16 winning bets at least this year and just missed on a 100/1 shot. Cease complaining!

Simon and Cilic have gone to a final set decider.

I don't think he won a point after I backed him.

Was it value though ?

The 1/1000 offered on Murray certainly wasn't !

It was, he dipped down as low as 40/1 with Coral and Betfair.

MrJones

JosiasJessop said:

MrJones said:

JosiasJessop said:

There are two crime measures in E&W. The crime survey of England and Wales, and the recorded crime figures.

The latter of these has run into troubles that need some swift sorting out. However, both metrics show similar trends, with crimes generally falling over a number of years.

I can imagine the police recorded figures being manipulated in some arch conspiracy, but it's much harder to imagine both being manipulated.

We might just have to face it: there are less crimes being committed than was the case. That's not a reason to take out eyes of the ball, but it's a good sign. The fear of crime has also decreased.

Yes. If the police stats are being fiddled downwards then the crime survey must be also.

edit: As crime is decreasing in a lot of places and increasing in others (more or less proportional to the decrease or increase in the numbers of young men aged 14-24) then the easiest way would be fiddling the areas where the surveys were taken.

That's quite an accusation. Do you care to take off your tinfoil hat and provide some proof?

True, it could just be a mistake but as you say, if the police stats have been fiddled downwards for years then logically the crime survey must be wrong too.

The simplest explanation would be a mismatch between the areas being surveyed and the areas where crime was being fiddled down in the police stats.

MrJones

Hugh said:

JosiasJessop said:

MrJones said:

TOPPING said:

It would be excellent if UKIP did brilliantly at the euros.

I think the collective reaction would be:

"you mean these people [F&Ls] are now representing us, Britain, me??"

And then people will wake up and promptly, come GE2015, vote them to way <5%.</p>

Which part of the bogus crime stats do you think is most wrong?

There are two crime measures in E&W. The crime survey of England and Wales, and the recorded crime figures.

The latter of these has run into troubles that need some swift sorting out. However, both metrics show similar trends, with crimes generally falling over a number of years.

I can imagine the police recorded figures being manipulated in some arch conspiracy, but it's much harder to imagine both being manipulated.

We might just have to face it: there are less crimes being committed than was the case. That's not a reason to take out eyes of the ball, but it's a good sign. The fear of crime has also decreased.

Crime's been falling for years.

It was falling when the Tories were in opposition scaremongering and bleating about bogus figures.

So the police have been fiddling the stats upwards?

JosiasJessop

Hugh said:

JosiasJessop said:

MrJones said:

TOPPING said:

It would be excellent if UKIP did brilliantly at the euros.

I think the collective reaction would be:

"you mean these people [F&Ls] are now representing us, Britain, me??"

And then people will wake up and promptly, come GE2015, vote them to way <5%.</p>

Which part of the bogus crime stats do you think is most wrong?

There are two crime measures in E&W. The crime survey of England and Wales, and the recorded crime figures.

The latter of these has run into troubles that need some swift sorting out. However, both metrics show similar trends, with crimes generally falling over a number of years.

I can imagine the police recorded figures being manipulated in some arch conspiracy, but it's much harder to imagine both being manipulated.

We might just have to face it: there are less crimes being committed than was the case. That's not a reason to take out eyes of the ball, but it's a good sign. The fear of crime has also decreased.

Crime's been falling for years.

It was falling when the Tories were in opposition scaremongering and bleating about bogus figures.

Well, in the case of the recorded crime figures, it looks as though they might have been right - the figures might be bogus. Unless you are claiming that the police only started massaging the figures after 2010?

It'll be another Labour mess that the coalition are having to sort out.

TheScreamingEagles

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Murray wins his match, 18 mins after some numpty backed his opponent.

Thanks for doing that, had a few nervous minutes.

My patriotism knows no bounds.

AndyJS

TOPPING said:

It would be excellent if UKIP did brilliantly at the euros.

I think the collective reaction would be:

"you mean these people [F&Ls] are now representing us, Britain, me??"

And then people will wake up and promptly, come GE2015, vote them to way <5%.</p>

Some Tories are probably privately hoping UKIP does spectacularly well in May because it'll mean a lot of voters will have got making a protest out of their system before the general election. I think that may have happened with Labour in 2009/2010: getting 15.7% in 2009 meant the party's 29.7% in 2010 was better than they would have polled without the Euro election because voters had already given the party a truly terrible kicking.

AlastairMeeks

The only Tories hoping for UKIP to do well are fifth columnists. Of which, of course, there are many.

Tissue_Price

Why don't YouGov (or other polling companies) trial both approaches [prompt all vs prompt big 3 and others] at the same time?

They could average the results for their headline number, and they'll then have a good dataset for reviewing their methodology after the result is known.

Socrates

Looking at some of these numbers, it would make sense for UKIP to stop concentrating their fire on the Tories (where they've largely made the argument) and try to weaken Labour. Working class Eurosceptics maybe on the left economically, but when it comes to European issues they won't be voting on that so much, but on national pride and immigration concerns. UKIP would do well to remind people of Labour's past broken promises over Lisbon, and point out how Miliband backs more power going to the EU, including possibly joining the Euro if he's PM long enough.

MrJones

MrJones said:

TOPPING said:

It would be excellent if UKIP did brilliantly at the euros.

I think the collective reaction would be:

"you mean these people [F&Ls] are now representing us, Britain, me??"

And then people will wake up and promptly, come GE2015, vote them to way <5%.</p>

Which part of the bogus crime stats do you think is most wrong?

My guess btw would be violent crime directed at the young, say up to age 24, but especially age 11-19.

JosiasJessop

MrJones said:

True, it could just be a mistake but as you say, if the police stats have been fiddled downwards for years then logically the crime survey must be wrong too.

The simplest explanation would be a mismatch between the areas being surveyed and the areas where crime was being fiddled down in the police stats.

That is a fallacious observation. The crime rate might be falling anyway, and the reported crime rates just exaggerate that fact. We can't know. But the ONS have been looking into why police recorded crime have been falling faster than the BCS. (1)

For one thing - although we cannot be sure until something official comes out - it looks as though much of the misreporting may be downgrading of crimes, rather than non-reporting. A mugging as a robbery, GBH reduced to ABH. The crime still gets reported, but it's not accurate.

Figures for things like murder and manslaughter are also hard to massage - they are too visible. And these have, from memory, been decreasing.

That's not to say that the Crime Survey gives a true picture - any such survey has to be done very carefully, and take in people who might not ordinarily take part in a survey, who might also stand more chance of being victims of crime. But I haven't heard a massive amount of genuine criticism of it.

TNS-BMRB perform the survey for the ONS. As for how they choose who to interview, from the FAQ (2)

In 2012/13 approximately 50,000 households will be selected to take part in this research. These households are chosen at random from the Royal Mail's list of addresses. Interviewers do not know who lives at the address until they visit it.

Once an address has been selected for the study, we cannot replace it with another address. This means that we rely on the goodwill of those who have been chosen to take part in the survey.

(1): http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/crime-stats/crime-statistics/period-ending-june-2013/sty-recorded-crime.html
(2): http://www.crimesurvey.co.uk/faqs.html

JosiasJessop

Hugh said:

JosiasJessop said:

Hugh said:

JosiasJessop said:

MrJones said:

TOPPING said:

It would be excellent if UKIP did brilliantly at the euros.

I think the collective reaction would be:

"you mean these people [F&Ls] are now representing us, Britain, me??"

And then people will wake up and promptly, come GE2015, vote them to way <5%.</p>

Which part of the bogus crime stats do you think is most wrong?

There are two crime measures in E&W. The crime survey of England and Wales, and the recorded crime figures.

The latter of these has run into troubles that need some swift sorting out. However, both metrics show similar trends, with crimes generally falling over a number of years.

I can imagine the police recorded figures being manipulated in some arch conspiracy, but it's much harder to imagine both being manipulated.

We might just have to face it: there are less crimes being committed than was the case. That's not a reason to take out eyes of the ball, but it's a good sign. The fear of crime has also decreased.

Crime's been falling for years.

It was falling when the Tories were in opposition scaremongering and bleating about bogus figures.

Well, in the case of the recorded crime figures, it looks as though they might have been right - the figures might be bogus. Unless you are claiming that the police only started massaging the figures after 2010?

It'll be another Labour mess that the coalition are having to sort out.

Haha good effort.

But you know the Tories have some pretty disgraceful form on exactly the kind of thing you're discussing with Mr Jones.

Links, please.

TOPPING

AndyJS said:

TOPPING said:

It would be excellent if UKIP did brilliantly at the euros.

I think the collective reaction would be:

"you mean these people [F&Ls] are now representing us, Britain, me??"

And then people will wake up and promptly, come GE2015, vote them to way <5%.</p>

Some Tories are probably privately hoping UKIP does spectacularly well in May because it'll mean a lot of voters will have got making a protest out of their system before the general election. I think that may have happened with Labour in 2009/2010: getting 15.7% in 2009 meant the party's 29.7% in 2010 was better than they would have polled without the Euro election because voters had already given the party a truly terrible kicking.

Indeed.

MrJones

JosiasJessop said:

MrJones said:

True, it could just be a mistake but as you say, if the police stats have been fiddled downwards for years then logically the crime survey must be wrong too.

The simplest explanation would be a mismatch between the areas being surveyed and the areas where crime was being fiddled down in the police stats.

That is a fallacious observation. The crime rate might be falling anyway, and the reported crime rates just exaggerate that fact. We can't know. But the ONS have been looking into why police recorded crime have been falling faster than the BCS. (1)

For one thing - although we cannot be sure until something official comes out - it looks as though much of the misreporting may be downgrading of crimes, rather than non-reporting. A mugging as a robbery, GBH reduced to ABH. The crime still gets reported, but it's not accurate.

Figures for things like murder and manslaughter are also hard to massage - they are too visible. And these have, from memory, been decreasing.

That's not to say that the Crime Survey gives a true picture - any such survey has to be done very carefully, and take in people who might not ordinarily take part in a survey, who might also stand more chance of being victims of crime. But I haven't heard a massive amount of genuine criticism of it.

TNS-BMRB perform the survey for the ONS. As for how they choose who to interview, from the FAQ (2)

In 2012/13 approximately 50,000 households will be selected to take part in this research. These households are chosen at random from the Royal Mail's list of addresses. Interviewers do not know who lives at the address until they visit it.

Once an address has been selected for the study, we cannot replace it with another address. This means that we rely on the goodwill of those who have been chosen to take part in the survey.

(1): http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/crime-stats/crime-statistics/period-ending-june-2013/sty-recorded-crime.html
(2): http://www.crimesurvey.co.uk/faqs.html

Well, first step is everyone digesting the fact that police crime stats have been fiddled downwards for years.

Worry about the implications of that after.

edmundintokyo

JosiasJessop said:

MrJones said:

True, it could just be a mistake but as you say, if the police stats have been fiddled downwards for years then logically the crime survey must be wrong too.

The simplest explanation would be a mismatch between the areas being surveyed and the areas where crime was being fiddled down in the police stats.

That is a fallacious observation. The crime rate might be falling anyway, and the reported crime rates just exaggerate that fact. We can't know. But the ONS have been looking into why police recorded crime have been falling faster than the BCS. (1)

For one thing - although we cannot be sure until something official comes out - it looks as though much of the misreporting may be downgrading of crimes, rather than non-reporting. A mugging as a robbery, GBH reduced to ABH. The crime still gets reported, but it's not accurate.

Figures for things like murder and manslaughter are also hard to massage - they are too visible. And these have, from memory, been decreasing.

That's not to say that the Crime Survey gives a true picture - any such survey has to be done very carefully, and take in people who might not ordinarily take part in a survey, who might also stand more chance of being victims of crime. But I haven't heard a massive amount of genuine criticism of it.

TNS-BMRB perform the survey for the ONS. As for how they choose who to interview, from the FAQ (2)

In 2012/13 approximately 50,000 households will be selected to take part in this research. These households are chosen at random from the Royal Mail's list of addresses. Interviewers do not know who lives at the address until they visit it.

Once an address has been selected for the study, we cannot replace it with another address. This means that we rely on the goodwill of those who have been chosen to take part in the survey.

(1): http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/crime-stats/crime-statistics/period-ending-june-2013/sty-recorded-crime.html
(2): http://www.crimesurvey.co.uk/faqs.html

Also although the Statistics Authority seems to think it's caught them fiddling some kinds of crime down (to look successful) they may also have been fiddling other figures up (to justify requests for more money and power).

TheScreamingEagles

Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 40s

Sky sources: Bernie Ecclestone to stand down as the boss of Formula One and will go on trial on bribery charges in Germany in April

MikeSmithson

Tissue_Price said:

Why don't YouGov (or other polling companies) trial both approaches [prompt all vs prompt big 3 and others] at the same time?

They could average the results for their headline number, and they'll then have a good dataset for reviewing their methodology after the result is known.

My understanding is that YouGov has been conducting trials which suggest that prompting adds just over 1% to UKIP's share.

Opinium list all the parties so do in fact prompt.

Survation Westminster polling offers UKIP in the initial prompt but to indicate the rest you have to click "others".

The biggest factor is not prompting but the party id or past vote weightings. These compress the UKIP total by varying degrees.

The more that UKIP's share is compressed the better it is for the Tories.

viewcode

MrJones said:

[previous quotes snipped]

True, it could just be a mistake but as you say, if the police stats have been fiddled downwards for years then logically the crime survey must be wrong too.

No. The police stats you mention refer to reports of crime to the police from the public. They are collected by the police and passed on for further processing. The crime survey refers to perception of crime. They are collected by a survey organisation (who contact the public directly) and passed on for further processing.

It is possible for the police to manipulate the police stats because they are involved in the collection. It is not possible for the police to manipulate the crime survey because they are not involved in the collection nor anything else.

anotherDave

With 50% of 2010 Conservative voters supporting UKIP for the Euros, the loyalist Tories', and MPs, habit of insulting UKIP supporters is one they need to curb.

edmundintokyo

edmundintokyo said:

RodCrosby said:

anotherDave said:

Jan 2009 YouGov.
Con 35%, Lab 29%, LD 15%, UKIP 7%

Result
Con 28%, Lab 16%, LD 14%, UKIP 16%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)#Opinion_polls

The Big Two underperformed collectively by 20%. Astonishing...

Related to prompting, I guess. I'm not sure if they're prompting for UKIP in Euro polls nowdays, but even if they're not they've probably had enough coverage that people will think of them spontaneously. This isn't true of Green/Pirate/Respect.

Beyond UKIP the remaining small parties are mostly on the left, so it seems like there's a lot of downside to the Labour score.

Scratch that last point, this time they apparently prompted for world+dog.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8594

MrJones

viewcode said:

MrJones said:

[previous quotes snipped]

True, it could just be a mistake but as you say, if the police stats have been fiddled downwards for years then logically the crime survey must be wrong too.

No. The police stats you mention refer to reports of crime to the police from the public. They are collected by the police and passed on for further processing. The crime survey refers to perception of crime. They are collected by a survey organisation (who contact the public directly) and passed on for further processing.

It is possible for the police to manipulate the police stats because they are involved in the collection. It is not possible for the police to manipulate the crime survey because they are not involved in the collection nor anything else.

Yeah I know. The question was, if the police stats have been fiddled downwards for years then what are the implications for the crime survey. Time will tell. The main thing is for people to digest that the police stats have been fiddled downwards for years.

MarkSenior

anotherDave said:

With 50% of 2010 Conservative voters supporting UKIP for the Euros, the loyalist Tories', and MPs, habit of insulting UKIP supporters is one they need to curb.

50% of 2010 Conservative voters are NOT supporting UKIP for the Euros . You are misreading the data .

JosiasJessop

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 40s

Sky sources: Bernie Ecclestone to stand down as the boss of Formula One and will go on trial on bribery charges in Germany in April

An era is over. It's quite sad. Bernie was around F1 from the very start of the championship in 1950 - people forget he was actually a racing driver and team owner, although his time as a driver in F1 was hardly stellar - two races, and he did not qualify in either.

But he shaped F1 so much. In many ways he was F1.

Name-dropping time: I once had a conversation for ten minutes or so with Bernie. I had no idea who he was until the very end, and we ended up talking about tarmac and concrete. As you can imagine, it was an exciting conversation. ;-)

My impression was that he was exceptionally sharp and knowledgeable. He was also surprisingly friendly (this was 20 or so years ago).

There are so many stories about him, it's hard to split fact from fiction. Who knows what this court case will unveil.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Lennon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting that the headline figure and the certain to vote figure shows Lab ahead

Labour 13/8 with William Hill for Labour to win the Euros has to be value?

With your current form, who am I to dissuade you. However, I would compare the Lab % of the Vote in the first poll before the Euros in 2009 with the actual vote achieved. (It dropped. Lots.)

The problem with the 2009 polling was there was a major event that dominated the latter part of the campaign and damaged the three main Westminster parties and boosted UKIP

Interestingly, though, the Lib Dem vote hardly moved from 2004-2009. It has stayed pretty consistently in the 13%-16% bracket since 1999. There does seem to be a (small) market for them at the euros - the keen Europhiles who recognise they are the pro-EU party. And this is one area where their supporters wouldn't tend to point to where they've 'sold out'. It wouldn't surprise me if the Lib Dem vote didn't drop too much this time either.

Strangely, even UKIP's vote didn't move up very much. It was the Tory and Labour vote (particularly Labour) that got hit the most.

Although none of those 'events' are likely this year. Labour have always tended to outpoll their actual performance in the election. Furthermore, there is virtually no coverage of the euros at the moment, so the focus isn't there. Also, as (antifrank?) said Miliband has tended to underperform in his other elections to date. The libdem squeeze (I think) won't be as great. And I see little evidence of 'trust' returning to the big parties - the anger is still there - it's just now there is a very clear rallying point unlike the scattergun of last time. And that's UKIP.

Mr Royale, welcome back.

2009 was weird, and Labour were led by well Gordon Brown, who released that video during the campaign

Thanks TSE. It's good to be back.

Do you not agree that Labour will underperform then? I wonder if we overestimate the effect of things like Brown's 'special' performances. The Gillian Duffy incident in 2010 also didn't make much notable difference, except to those who'd already made up their mind.

I can see a upswing of 7-8% to Labour (to take them up to perhaps 23-24% of the vote, Blair 2004 levels) but I can't see them beating UKIP. I think UKIP will take perhaps 26-27% of the vote. They will prob also slightly underperform the final polls they get, for similar reasons to Labour.

CarlottaVance

2014 Oscar Nominees:

http://oscar.go.com/nominees

Quincel

Anyone else kinda tempted to just back the 2nd favourite in every category? The bookies seem oddly sure of the front-runners, odds on despite the apparently open field.

MikeK

Neil said:

Cookie said:

When is the Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election likely to be? Good news for UKIP if it coincides with the campaign (such as it is) for the European Parliament?

One suspects it will be a short campaign.

I believe the funeral is today so the writ will probably be moved next week?

UKIP campaign HQ are already calling on, and asking volunteers to head for the constituency.
For those from afar, rooms and bed sits are being arranged. Strong proof of an all out effort here.
And this is before the date is announced.

Quincel

MikeK said:

Neil said:

Cookie said:

When is the Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election likely to be? Good news for UKIP if it coincides with the campaign (such as it is) for the European Parliament?

One suspects it will be a short campaign.

I believe the funeral is today so the writ will probably be moved next week?

UKIP campaign HQ are already calling on, and asking volunteers to head for the constituency.
For those from afar, rooms and bed sits are being arranged. Strong proof of an all out effort here.
And this is before the date is announced.

UKIP's only chance of winning short of a miracle is to get the momentum started with a better than expected first poll once the date is announced. Sending campaigners there now is the smart move. Plus it cements their chances of second place, which they could miss if they don't get a good ground-game going.

AlastairMeeks

I'm disappointed that Labour haven't yet gone longer than 1/8 in Wythenshawe & Sale. Could the UKIPpers please put more of their money where their mouths are?

OblitusSumMe

Hugh said:

Stop.

Bloody.

RAINING.

Aggh!

Looks at the rainfall radar - Are you by any chance just to the east of the M5?

Fenster

Sad news about Roger Lloyd Pack. I grew up through the Only Fools and Horses glory years and my wife and me spent hours as youngsters sat up in bed watching the DVDs over and over again. The cast felt like part of the family.

And I am semi-resigned to an Ed Miliband win at the next GE. The confluence of the rising UKIP vote, lack of boundary changes, the unmoving labour poll lead, Lib Dem switchers, Labour's built in bias and the tendency of the public at large to believe we can keep on spending (really, even intelligent people I know refuse to believe the finances are that bad, and that the Tories are ideological haters of the poor) makes me think the Tories can't win the most seats. Worrisome though that is*.

Which got me thinking, will an Ed Miliband rise to power be the most unexciting and unappealing and enthusiasm-sapping government ever? A bit bleugh. A bit whatever. I really can't detect much enthusiasm for him anywhere. He's an 'oh well, anything to get rid of the Tories' candidate.

And if Ed Miliband does win, what on earth does that say about the ongoing electability of the Tories? Ouch.

*I have no massive dislike of Labour, or their wish to do well for the poor. I just think the finances need sorting, and an Ed Miliband government will lose a fight with the Unions, and give in, with the finances ending up in an even bigger mess come 2020. And I don't dislike Ed himself either. I basically think he is a nice enough, clever enough, pleasant enough non-entity, leading a party that is borderline unleadable outside of its parliamentary members.

I fear the ambitions of the Unions under McCluskey. I really do. And I think he will become a massive figure in British politics post 2015. Oh well, oh f*ck.

Lennon

MikeK said:

Neil said:

Cookie said:

When is the Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election likely to be? Good news for UKIP if it coincides with the campaign (such as it is) for the European Parliament?

One suspects it will be a short campaign.

I believe the funeral is today so the writ will probably be moved next week?

UKIP campaign HQ are already calling on, and asking volunteers to head for the constituency.
For those from afar, rooms and bed sits are being arranged. Strong proof of an all out effort here.
And this is before the date is announced.

Have UKIP picked a candidate yet?

OblitusSumMe

Fenster said:

I have no massive dislike of Labour, or their wish to do well for the poor. I just think the finances need sorting, and an Ed Miliband government will lose a fight with the Unions, and give in, with the finances ending up in an even bigger mess come 2020. And I don't dislike Ed himself either. I basically think he is a nice enough, clever enough, pleasant enough non-entity, leading a party that is borderline unleadable outside of its parliamentary members.

I fear the ambitions of the Unions under McCluskey. I really do. And I think he will become a massive figure in British politics post 2015. Oh well, oh f*ck.

Much as I might wish it were otherwise, the Unions can barely fight their way out of a wet paper bag at the moment. You can sleep easy if that is the basis of your worries.

Pulpstar

Betting Question:

I've netted over £450 off my last ~ 14 bets with Victor (~ £120 staked). Obviously I've had losers elsewhere but on a scale of 1-Victor how likely is the account to go up the swanny ?

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

After a set and a half of getting his arse kicked, Simon won 3:2, which was a pleasant surprise.

TwistedFireStopper

Fenster said:

Sad news about Roger Lloyd Pack. I grew up through the Only Fools and Horses glory years and my wife and me spent hours as youngsters sat up in bed watching the DVDs over and over again. The cast felt like part of the family.

And I am semi-resigned to an Ed Miliband win at the next GE. The confluence of the rising UKIP vote, lack of boundary changes, the unmoving labour poll lead, Lib Dem switchers, Labour's built in bias and the tendency of the public at large to believe we can keep on spending (really, even intelligent people I know refuse to believe the finances are that bad, and that the Tories are ideological haters of the poor) makes me think the Tories can't win the most seats. Worrisome though that is*.

Which got me thinking, will an Ed Miliband rise to power be the most unexciting and unappealing and enthusiasm-sapping government ever? A bit bleugh. A bit whatever. I really can't detect much enthusiasm for him anywhere. He's an 'oh well, anything to get rid of the Tories' candidate.

And if Ed Miliband does win, what on earth does that say about the ongoing electability of the Tories? Ouch.

*I have no massive dislike of Labour, or their wish to do well for the poor. I just think the finances need sorting, and an Ed Miliband government will lose a fight with the Unions, and give in, with the finances ending up in an even bigger mess come 2020. And I don't dislike Ed himself either. I basically think he is a nice enough, clever enough, pleasant enough non-entity, leading a party that is borderline unleadable outside of its parliamentary members.

I fear the ambitions of the Unions under McCluskey. I really do. And I think he will become a massive figure in British politics post 2015. Oh well, oh f*ck.

What, exactly do you think the unions are going to do to the country under a Milliband government?
I can't ever envisage something like the miner's happening again, unions just ain't that powerful anymore, and I say that as a member of what the tabloids call a militant union!

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

Betting Question:

I've netted over £450 off my last ~ 14 bets with Victor (~ £120 staked). Obviously I've had losers elsewhere but on a scale of 1-Victor how likely is the account to go up the swanny ?

I'm surprised they haven't closed it already.

They closed mine in early 2010 and quite a few other PBers at the same time, I think it's a two fold strategy with them, they look at your past winnings and their exposure on your bets that haven't concluded yet.

TheScreamingEagles

Yay another referendum, and it has betting implication for PBers

Green councillors in Brighton to push for referendum on council tax rise

Council leaders say they need 4.75% rise to fund adult social care services because of coalition government cuts

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/16/green-councillors-brighton-referendum-council-tax-rise

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, if a bookie closes your account, what's to stop you just opening a new one?

MrJones

Fenster said:

Sad news about Roger Lloyd Pack. I grew up through the Only Fools and Horses glory years and my wife and me spent hours as youngsters sat up in bed watching the DVDs over and over again. The cast felt like part of the family.

And I am semi-resigned to an Ed Miliband win at the next GE. The confluence of the rising UKIP vote, lack of boundary changes, the unmoving labour poll lead, Lib Dem switchers, Labour's built in bias and the tendency of the public at large to believe we can keep on spending (really, even intelligent people I know refuse to believe the finances are that bad, and that the Tories are ideological haters of the poor) makes me think the Tories can't win the most seats. Worrisome though that is*.

Which got me thinking, will an Ed Miliband rise to power be the most unexciting and unappealing and enthusiasm-sapping government ever? A bit bleugh. A bit whatever. I really can't detect much enthusiasm for him anywhere. He's an 'oh well, anything to get rid of the Tories' candidate.

And if Ed Miliband does win, what on earth does that say about the ongoing electability of the Tories? Ouch.

*I have no massive dislike of Labour, or their wish to do well for the poor. I just think the finances need sorting, and an Ed Miliband government will lose a fight with the Unions, and give in, with the finances ending up in an even bigger mess come 2020. And I don't dislike Ed himself either. I basically think he is a nice enough, clever enough, pleasant enough non-entity, leading a party that is borderline unleadable outside of its parliamentary members.

I fear the ambitions of the Unions under McCluskey. I really do. And I think he will become a massive figure in British politics post 2015. Oh well, oh f*ck.

The power, influence and even inclination of the unions is summed up by zero hours contracts.

Fenster

@TwistedFireStopper

I think the finances will still need a lot of work. We'll still probably have an £80billion deficit by 2015.

With Labour in power, and the vested interests feeling emboldened after their work during this parliament (see the well organised opposition to schools, NHS, welfare reforms), and with more Unison-backed MPs in parliament, it will be very tough for Miliband to square the deficit away. That's if he even intends to.

I don't think Miliband has enough power or inter-party support to see off the demands of McCluskey and co. Demands which will essentially be: no more cuts and more spending.

ps - it's not the union members (like yourself) or the unions per se that are the problem, it's the union power bods. Those at the top. And those like the pilgrims who are embedded and essentially immovable and totally against any serious economic reform.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, if a bookie closes your account, what's to stop you just opening a new one?

Some people use a beard.

However it is difficult, as when you need to transfer money from your bank card to your bookie online account they ask for your address and postcode for the payment to go through, it theoretically flags up at the bookies that someone at an address at previously closed account is active again so they close down your new account.

There's nothing stopping you going to that bookies shop however.

Morris_Dancer

Thanks for the answer.

It seems a bit daft. Why not, as someone here suggested, flag a successful account and use their bets to help determine and change betting odds?

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, if a bookie closes your account, what's to stop you just opening a new one?

Some people use a beard.

However it is difficult, as when you need to transfer money from your bank card to your bookie online account they ask for your address and postcode for the payment to go through, it theoretically flags up at the bookies that someone at an address at previously closed account is active again so they close down your new account.

There's nothing stopping you going to that bookies shop however.

Fine for political betting, but to make money on the nags you need to bet fast !

Pulpstar

Morris_Dancer said:

Thanks for the answer.

It seems a bit daft. Why not, as someone here suggested, flag a successful account and use their bets to help determine and change betting odds?

Because they are greedy.

Stan James (My closed account) seems to like to go top price on plenty of decent horses though...

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Thanks for the answer.

It seems a bit daft. Why not, as someone here suggested, flag a successful account and use their bets to help determine and change betting odds?

I think there's few political betting markets out there, and most of the betters are savvy to make profits, so that's why they restrict them, whilst the Paddy Power approach is annoying, limiting to you 43p on a bet is better than closing your account.

As Isam pointed out a few weeks ago, there's more bet on the first goalscorer in a Premier League match than there has been on the Indy referendum.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, if a bookie closes your account, what's to stop you just opening a new one?

Some people use a beard.

However it is difficult, as when you need to transfer money from your bank card to your bookie online account they ask for your address and postcode for the payment to go through, it theoretically flags up at the bookies that someone at an address at previously closed account is active again so they close down your new account.

There's nothing stopping you going to that bookies shop however.

Fine for political betting, but to make money on the nags you need to bet fast !

One of the benefits of working in the centre of Manchester is there are squillions of betting shops within a 10 minute walk.

It was great when they opened up the Eastleigh markets for example.