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More striking evidence of Johnson’s polling decline – politicalbetting.com
More striking evidence of Johnson’s polling decline – politicalbetting.com
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More striking evidence of Johnson’s polling decline – politicalbetting.com
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TimT Posts: 4,840
4:12PM
Foxy said:
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You cannot make an evidence based decision until there is evidence to consider.
True logically and linguistically. But I recommend you read Gary Klein (Streetlights and Shadows) on naturalistic decision-making, expertise, intuition and recognition-primed decision-making. It is a more explicit model of Kahneman's thinking fast vs thinking slow, or System I and System II.
In other words, based on genuine expertise garnered over long periods of demanding work, we can develop subconscious priming to recognize patterns that our conscious brain is unaware of. Klein cites structures firefighters and naval aviators and even weather forecasters in his research works.
I am not convinced that this is what is play with the government's decision-making (or with much decision-making by anyone about COVID, as it is so sui generis that no-one has had the data sets to acquire that definition of expertise), but thought it worth pointing out that there are evidence-based decision-making processes even in the absence of explicit evidence.
C'mon newspapers. It's an easy story for a quiet news day...
Sir, I demand satisfaction for that vile calumny.
Not the number recorded as being used but including all the negative tests which are being done.
And how does that compare to other countries ?
After a 15-month long battle, the Government has finally released reports on the effect of Covid restrictions on minority groups. The results make for predictably grim reading.
Overall, they describe a catalogue of harms from March to June last year, which disproportionately affected the most vulnerable. The documents state that LGBT+ groups, women (including pregnant women), the poor, young and old, ethnic minorities, and disabled people have all been the most negatively affected by lockdowns and restrictions.
https://unherd.com/thepost/government-lockdowns-hurt-minority-groups-most/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/
Was it Drakeford who claimed that Omicron doubles every two days ?
If so South Africa should have been over 200k today.
THIS. IS. SPARTA
Fuck Scotland and Wales and that bit of Ireland with their pathetic lame one way shopping systems
ENGLAND SINGS THE PAEANS OF LIBERTY
Liz Truss. Rishi Sunak. Some other guy I forget. Jacob Rees Mogg. Take your bows. You Have PREVAILED
Our house is full of them. No one reports negatives.
In Germany you get an LFT at the chemists. Done by the pharmacist. Well in Baden-Wurttemberg you do.
So they may have figures.
But I suspect there would be an awful lot of don't knows
If even SKS isn't calling for restrictions the news is looking good. Though we'll never get him to advocate taking a mask off.
If millions of people are using them regularly but not reporting negative tests that must skew the positivity rate.
So I don't waste time reporting negatives.
My school used to have a separate reporting system as well, which made things worse, so we all unilaterally gave up on it.
It's an appalling piece of work and it's an utter waste of time anyway. Positive tests are the ones that actually matter.
But then again, I'm old and slow, anyway. Like a tortoise wading through treacle.
The UK response to COVID from a genomic and diagnostic sense is so amazing and outsized ... Such brilliant science and development of new bioinformatic capabilities. One of the great scientific/public health success stories of all time.
It is one of the many reasons I both love and hate the British. You beat up on yourselves so much, even when you do well. Some self-deprecation is good; too much is hope- and soul-destroying.
I read him for amusement, elegant wordsmithing and occasionally flashes of insight rather than analytical rigour…
But Xmas 2021 is safe which I suppose is something
Which should have been saved at the first time and just reused, under any sane system.
And as I am still rather busy trying to cope with their more insane demands, my answer to such a ridiculous performance is 'fuck that.'
So I don't bother. They want that information? They can get somebody who has an intellectual sophistication greater than a four year old to design their app.
If it's changed, that's good news, but I haven't time to check for a bunch of pointless negatives so they won't get that info any time soon.
Good night.
Much of the early response to coronavirus - certainly in Europe, Oz, maybe the USA - was driven by the early British response, from lonely Neil Ferguson at Imperial College to the way British media then amplified his assertions online. British media has a ridiculously outsize online presence, partly because it is punchy, partly just coz of the English language, maybe something else? - anyway it is highly influential. Look how Brussels will respond to UK media stories in, say the FT, Guardian, Economist, Times, much more than any actual EU media stories in French or German, let alone Spanish or Italian. The language of Twitter is English and that is an unavoidable fact, and it alters things
Even now the UK debate on Omicron is steering the wider European debate. Holland locked down partly BECAUSE British newspapers started crapping themselves about the SA variant - that UK panic then spread across the Channel
The EU and the UK are destined to be slightly neurotic about each other, like divorcees who keep thinking "was that the right move?"
Negative data is every bit as valuable in science as positive data.
I find PB quite the relaxant so long as I don't take most things too seriously. Otherwise it does me more harm than good.
Sean's posts are provocative. That's why, for the most part, I like them, regardless of whether I agree with them or whether his views are consistent.
The Cabinet would have to be mad to agree a lockdown next week. And if they did, I doubt it would be only 99 Tory MPs who refused to vote for it.
Like being transported back to my misspent youth, and being lectured in soothing tones by Mrs Peel from The Avengers on Helen of Troy, the Oracle of Delphi and the Peloponnesian wars . . .
He was right about what the welded doors in Wuhan meant. He was right in broad strokes about what that would mean for our lives and the markets.
He was at least half a year ahead of the formal narrative on lab leak. Some of you are still catching up on that one.
And on omicron, he was right on day 1 that the government was shatting its pants over it. Where he was wrong was assuming the govt had access to some terrible privileged info. It didn’t. All you needed to do was look at SA. Which they largely didn’t.
Oh and he’s also been ahead of the curve on the US UAP story, that something very strange indeed is unfolding, be it an earthly conspiracy or something grander.
God speed to you, @CorrectHorseBattery my fellow PB-er, and the same to all PB-ers. May this Christmas be the last shitty plagued-up Christmas for us all, for a while, and may the New Year bring us seriously better tidings. For what it is worth, I do sense the metallic tinkle of an angel overhead, perhaps recharging her lithium batteries, but still. An angel! They are good
https://www.vice.com/en/article/wxdjpw/jennifer-arcuri-boris-johnson-conspiracy-theories
Reminds me of an exchange with a long gone PB poster about food and wine. He thought that he had some unique tastebud power to determine the relative merits of this or that food or wine whereas what made the accounts of great or dreadful meals enjoyable was his descriptive ability.
Story from me, @mroliverbarnes and @rmilneNordic, running through new data from South Africa, Denmark, England & Scotland https://t.co/6axp4zau9G
Top-line: share of Omicron cases requiring hospital is lower than for Delta
And then just been listening to the Liverpool game on the radio after getting home. Wow what a comeback at the end.
Now if I'm reading correctly it seems even more remote now that there will be a lockdown post-Christmas. Those of us who opposed restrictions called this right and Nena's 99 Rebel Loons deserve all our thanks. Fraser Nelson deserves an OBE for the way he revealed the flaw in SAGE's reporting just before Cabinet voted, surely they can never lock us down again now?
What a great night! Not been able to drink yet as I was driving, but time to crack one open now I think. Fantastic!
Lets all have some Festive Cheer, its about time!
How much do they both press on with their own bespoke plans (either because they genuinely believe they're the right thing to do or just mainly to save face because they've already announced them), or do they do a quick U-turn when they realise either that no more money is forthcoming to pursue anything else if England doesn't go for further restrictions or that perhaps the data suggests it's not quite the doomsday they feared.
I suspect a certain amount of pride will lock in those changes for the 3 weeks and then at the review point it will be convenient to undo a lot of them again because they will argue that they "worked" by doing them.
He's obviously got many faults - and virtues - but he's not the Gestapo type. Of all the Cabinet he would have been one of my last picks for a lockdown-maniac, against the data.
Quite, quite odd. A secret new girlfriend maybe? We've seen what it did to Boris. Powerful middle aged men easily get burned and churned by pretty young ladies
And I, like most on here, am probably better informed than the average punter.
Its the speed limit analogy. Nobody is going to look beyond a headline figure that reducing speed limits everywhere to 20mph has dramatically cut road deaths.
If 99 MPs were willing to resist a few days ago - how many would it be on say 28th?
And for the first time I have seen him referred to as Drakefool
On mandating working from home he said it was the same as the previous regulations which they did not prosecute a single case, but it is there so employees can report their employer if they insist on coming into the office
Corbyn style left wing control
Remdesvir finally hits strong efficacy in a clinical trial. High risk outpatients with Covid randomized to IV infusions over 3 days (vs placebo): 87% reduced risk of hospitalizations. No effect on viral load.
https://nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2116846?query=featured_home
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1473779207666745346?s=20
So surely it is only PCRs that are registered. Although that makes me wonder what about those who take multiple PCRs...
• Cases and test positivity declining
• Cases trajectory halving time about 5.5 days
• Hospital admissions at or passed its peak
• Deaths rising, but much lower relative to previous wave (~14%)
https://twitter.com/rid1tweets/status/1473733362644885505?s=20
PM's refusal? lol
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/22/omicron-covid-restrictions-young-people
The credulous, slavish social democrat yearning for more restrictions - more, more! lock us down more! - will soon become self defeating and then electorally toxic. The people have had enough, they know this all costs money and sanity, absent a scary new Black Death variant we are on the brink of saying Fuck off, Let's live
Starmer is in a rather tricky position. He has publicly and recently yelled for more lockdown. What if the science suddenly says he is wrong? There is danger here for the New Authoritarian Left
Incidentally, a lot of the data entry is backdated. By date of test we had 103 000 positives on the 15th Dec.