The RNLI have cancelled their traditional boxing day dip
And for the first time I have seen him referred to as Drakefool
On mandating working from home he said it was the same as the previous regulations which they did not prosecute a single case, but it is there so employees can report their employer if they insist on coming into the office
Corbyn style left wing control
What utter drivel
What is drivel about the RNLI cancelling their boxing day dip, Drakeford being called Drakefool by some, and criminalising working in an office
I don't think he did this time around. He said he would support new restrictions if they were needed, but he didn't expand on whether he thought they were or not.
So I finally got my 17:50 vaccine appointment at 19:45 after two hours standing in the freezing cold. Good job it was us young ones getting vaxxed and not the elderly. Some people had their kids with them. Can't help but feel those reluctant to get vaxxed are unlikely to be encouraged by that to change their mind.
No Cabinet minister except Gove is going to lockdown now:
Why is Gove so lockdown mad?
He's a massive authoritarian so having that power over people's lives appeals to his nature. Pretty sure if he could tell people at what times of day they were allowed to take a shit he would try.
But everything I know of Gove tells me he is not a "massive authoritarian". And I hear a lot of goss about Gove. One of my best and oldest friends is very close to his (ex) wife.
He's obviously got many faults - and virtues - but he's not the Gestapo type. Of all the Cabinet he would have been one of my last picks for a lockdown-maniac, against the data.
Quite, quite odd. A secret new girlfriend maybe? We've seen what it did to Boris. Powerful middle aged men easily get burned and churned by pretty young ladies
I've been told he's a massive hypocrite by people who know him, though I probably only know people who don't like him very much. Very much do as I say not as I do. For example, he's said to be in favour of the puritan crackdown on middle class drug use. He was completely opposed to reopening the late night economy and yet he was in the bars (more than we've seen too) a lot over the summer and autumn.
There's a lot of Cameroon Tories who thought he was in their side until he wasn't.
No Cabinet minister except Gove is going to lockdown now:
Why is Gove so lockdown mad?
He's a massive authoritarian so having that power over people's lives appeals to his nature. Pretty sure if he could tell people at what times of day they were allowed to take a shit he would try.
But everything I know of Gove tells me he is not a "massive authoritarian". And I hear a lot of goss about Gove. One of my best and oldest friends is very close to his (ex) wife.
He's obviously got many faults - and virtues - but he's not the Gestapo type. Of all the Cabinet he would have been one of my last picks for a lockdown-maniac, against the data.
Quite, quite odd. A secret new girlfriend maybe? We've seen what it did to Boris. Powerful middle aged men easily get burned and churned by pretty young ladies
I get the impression that he's a bit of a contrarian. If everyone thinks X he'll argue for Y. Which is vital if you want to radically change stuff. It is also supremely important to avoid groupthink. You need at least one in every organisation. I'd be more annoyed if there wasn't at least someone saying "Yes, but."
Here's an update of key #COVID19 metrics in Gauteng South Africa
• Cases and test positivity declining • Cases trajectory halving time about 5.5 days • Hospital admissions at or passed its peak • Deaths rising, but much lower relative to previous wave (~14%)
The RNLI have cancelled their traditional boxing day dip
And for the first time I have seen him referred to as Drakefool
On mandating working from home he said it was the same as the previous regulations which they did not prosecute a single case, but it is there so employees can report their employer if they insist on coming into the office
Corbyn style left wing control
Owen Jones (for it was he) did a surprisingly insightful, thoughtful column in the Guardian today, about the way the nation is slowly turning against lockdown. He's on the money
The credulous, slavish social democrat yearning for more restrictions - more, more! lock us down more! - will soon become self defeating and then electorally toxic. The people have had enough, they know this all costs money and sanity, absent a scary new Black Death variant we are on the brink of saying Fuck off, Let's live
Starmer is in a rather tricky position. He has publicly and recently yelled for more lockdown. What if the science suddenly says he is wrong? There is danger here for the New Authoritarian Left
And Starmer constantly refers to Wales as an example of how he would deal with covid
I really hope the authoritarian left in Wales and Scotland finally get found out
Does anyone know how many LFTs are used each day ?
Not the number recorded as being used but including all the negative tests which are being done.
And how does that compare to other countries ?
negative tests are supposed to be recorded
All tests — positive, negative, and void — are meant to be recorded. It takes very little time to do so if you bother to set up an account. People who can't be bothered are throwing away data that could help us to make better decisions about managing the pandemic.
Well see. I didn't even know that feature existed. And I, like most on here, am probably better informed than the average punter.
No Cabinet minister except Gove is going to lockdown now:
Why is Gove so lockdown mad?
He's a massive authoritarian so having that power over people's lives appeals to his nature. Pretty sure if he could tell people at what times of day they were allowed to take a shit he would try.
But everything I know of Gove tells me he is not a "massive authoritarian". And I hear a lot of goss about Gove. One of my best and oldest friends is very close to his (ex) wife.
He's obviously got many faults - and virtues - but he's not the Gestapo type. Of all the Cabinet he would have been one of my last picks for a lockdown-maniac, against the data.
Quite, quite odd. A secret new girlfriend maybe? We've seen what it did to Boris. Powerful middle aged men easily get burned and churned by pretty young ladies
You had me until "pretty." I mean, I'm not that poster with the James Bond name who has slept with more beautiful women than most people have drawn breaths, but I look at photos of Jennifer and Carrie and completely irrelevant violinists and I think, Really?
aha
Yes, I have to agree with you there. Boris is clearly a quantity not quality guy. For a supposed Premiership swordsman, he keeps zorro-ing some, errrr, decidedly 4th Division Leylands DIY Sponsored talent
Trump, despite his supposed flaws, kept it high and stylish. A succession of serious beauties. Melania!
But I fear we err towards boorish misogyny, so it's best we go back to Our Divided Covid Cabinet
The RNLI have cancelled their traditional boxing day dip
And for the first time I have seen him referred to as Drakefool
On mandating working from home he said it was the same as the previous regulations which they did not prosecute a single case, but it is there so employees can report their employer if they insist on coming into the office
Corbyn style left wing control
Owen Jones (for it was he) did a surprisingly insightful, thoughtful column in the Guardian today, about the way the nation is slowly turning against lockdown. He's on the money
The credulous, slavish social democrat yearning for more restrictions - more, more! lock us down more! - will soon become self defeating and then electorally toxic. The people have had enough, they know this all costs money and sanity, absent a scary new Black Death variant we are on the brink of saying Fuck off, Let's live
Starmer is in a rather tricky position. He has publicly and recently yelled for more lockdown. What if the science suddenly says he is wrong? There is danger here for the New Authoritarian Left
Nobody holds oppositions to such calls if they are found to be wrong and the narrative moves on.
Correct. The Conservative Party backed Blair's invasion of Iraq, but nobody remembers that now.
The RNLI have cancelled their traditional boxing day dip
And for the first time I have seen him referred to as Drakefool
On mandating working from home he said it was the same as the previous regulations which they did not prosecute a single case, but it is there so employees can report their employer if they insist on coming into the office
Corbyn style left wing control
Owen Jones (for it was he) did a surprisingly insightful, thoughtful column in the Guardian today, about the way the nation is slowly turning against lockdown. He's on the money
The credulous, slavish social democrat yearning for more restrictions - more, more! lock us down more! - will soon become self defeating and then electorally toxic. The people have had enough, they know this all costs money and sanity, absent a scary new Black Death variant we are on the brink of saying Fuck off, Let's live
Starmer is in a rather tricky position. He has publicly and recently yelled for more lockdown. What if the science suddenly says he is wrong? There is danger here for the New Authoritarian Left
Nobody holds oppositions to such calls if they are found to be wrong and the narrative moves on.
Correct. The Conservative Party backed Blair's invasion of Iraq, but nobody remembers that now.
The RNLI have cancelled their traditional boxing day dip
And for the first time I have seen him referred to as Drakefool
On mandating working from home he said it was the same as the previous regulations which they did not prosecute a single case, but it is there so employees can report their employer if they insist on coming into the office
Corbyn style left wing control
Owen Jones (for it was he) did a surprisingly insightful, thoughtful column in the Guardian today, about the way the nation is slowly turning against lockdown. He's on the money
The credulous, slavish social democrat yearning for more restrictions - more, more! lock us down more! - will soon become self defeating and then electorally toxic. The people have had enough, they know this all costs money and sanity, absent a scary new Black Death variant we are on the brink of saying Fuck off, Let's live
Starmer is in a rather tricky position. He has publicly and recently yelled for more lockdown. What if the science suddenly says he is wrong? There is danger here for the New Authoritarian Left
Demonization of people who believe in a different trade-off between life and leisure activity is part of the problem, whichever way it goes. Only extremists have a view of always being for lockdown or always be against. Most of us are in an area of the grey in between, and support or oppose lockdown depending on the severity of the variant, the transmissibility and the level of vaccine escape. I am sure Starmer is one of those people.
The RNLI have cancelled their traditional boxing day dip
And for the first time I have seen him referred to as Drakefool
On mandating working from home he said it was the same as the previous regulations which they did not prosecute a single case, but it is there so employees can report their employer if they insist on coming into the office
Corbyn style left wing control
Owen Jones (for it was he) did a surprisingly insightful, thoughtful column in the Guardian today, about the way the nation is slowly turning against lockdown. He's on the money
The credulous, slavish social democrat yearning for more restrictions - more, more! lock us down more! - will soon become self defeating and then electorally toxic. The people have had enough, they know this all costs money and sanity, absent a scary new Black Death variant we are on the brink of saying Fuck off, Let's live
Starmer is in a rather tricky position. He has publicly and recently yelled for more lockdown. What if the science suddenly says he is wrong? There is danger here for the New Authoritarian Left
Nobody holds oppositions to such calls if they are found to be wrong and the narrative moves on.
Correct. The Conservative Party backed Blair's invasion of Iraq, but nobody remembers that now.
Well it was almost 20 years ago.
Labour backed our ERM membership but profited massively when it imploded.
The RNLI have cancelled their traditional boxing day dip
And for the first time I have seen him referred to as Drakefool
On mandating working from home he said it was the same as the previous regulations which they did not prosecute a single case, but it is there so employees can report their employer if they insist on coming into the office
Corbyn style left wing control
Owen Jones (for it was he) did a surprisingly insightful, thoughtful column in the Guardian today, about the way the nation is slowly turning against lockdown. He's on the money
The credulous, slavish social democrat yearning for more restrictions - more, more! lock us down more! - will soon become self defeating and then electorally toxic. The people have had enough, they know this all costs money and sanity, absent a scary new Black Death variant we are on the brink of saying Fuck off, Let's live
Starmer is in a rather tricky position. He has publicly and recently yelled for more lockdown. What if the science suddenly says he is wrong? There is danger here for the New Authoritarian Left
And Starmer constantly refers to Wales as an example of how he would deal with covid
I really hope the authoritarian left in Wales and Scotland finally get found out
Unlikely. Welsh Labour and the SNP are immovable objects, with vast client votes and fragmented and pitifully low calibre opposition.
No Cabinet minister except Gove is going to lockdown now:
Why is Gove so lockdown mad?
He's a massive authoritarian so having that power over people's lives appeals to his nature. Pretty sure if he could tell people at what times of day they were allowed to take a shit he would try.
But everything I know of Gove tells me he is not a "massive authoritarian". And I hear a lot of goss about Gove. One of my best and oldest friends is very close to his (ex) wife.
He's obviously got many faults - and virtues - but he's not the Gestapo type. Of all the Cabinet he would have been one of my last picks for a lockdown-maniac, against the data.
Quite, quite odd. A secret new girlfriend maybe? We've seen what it did to Boris. Powerful middle aged men easily get burned and churned by pretty young ladies
You had me until "pretty." I mean, I'm not that poster with the James Bond name who has slept with more beautiful women than most people have drawn breaths, but I look at photos of Jennifer and Carrie and completely irrelevant violinists and I think, Really?
aha
Yes, I have to agree with you there. Boris is clearly a quantity not quality guy. For a supposed Premiership swordsman, he keeps zorro-ing some, errrr, decidedly 4th Division Leylands DIY Sponsored talent
Trump, despite his supposed flaws, kept it high and stylish. A succession of serious beauties. Melania!
But I fear we err towards boorish misogyny, so it's best we go back to Our Divided Covid Cabinet
I mean Trump has hundreds of millions in potential divorce settlement to attract them in. And while many of his conquests were attractive, they all seem to be pretty empty upstairs. Is there anyone more brain dead than Melania? She seems utterly without a personality.
As for test recording when I tested positive I did, say, ten LFTs of which five were positive. If I had recorded them all then surely the positive test results would have been increased fivefold.
So surely it is only PCRs that are registered. Although that makes me wonder what about those who take multiple PCRs...
You have to put in you NHS number. So long as they count positive *cases*, where a case is a person, no problem.
No Cabinet minister except Gove is going to lockdown now:
Why is Gove so lockdown mad?
He's a massive authoritarian so having that power over people's lives appeals to his nature. Pretty sure if he could tell people at what times of day they were allowed to take a shit he would try.
But everything I know of Gove tells me he is not a "massive authoritarian". And I hear a lot of goss about Gove. One of my best and oldest friends is very close to his (ex) wife.
He's obviously got many faults - and virtues - but he's not the Gestapo type. Of all the Cabinet he would have been one of my last picks for a lockdown-maniac, against the data.
Quite, quite odd. A secret new girlfriend maybe? We've seen what it did to Boris. Powerful middle aged men easily get burned and churned by pretty young ladies
The other interesting rumour (which I'm not going to try to track now) is that Nadine Dorries was also keen on further restrictions. She's bonkers in terms of culture wars, but again- she gets healthcare.
To repeat- I really don't want any post-Christmas social restrictions. Especially since that's when I'm doing all the flitting around family. But when the people who I semi-trust to not be idiots are the ones saying "hey, this might be a bit flaky" and the ones I don't trust are celebrating a great victory... I hope they're right, but I wonder.
And saying "X is a power mad authoritarian" just when they disagree with what you want is just lazy.
The RNLI have cancelled their traditional boxing day dip
And for the first time I have seen him referred to as Drakefool
On mandating working from home he said it was the same as the previous regulations which they did not prosecute a single case, but it is there so employees can report their employer if they insist on coming into the office
Corbyn style left wing control
Owen Jones (for it was he) did a surprisingly insightful, thoughtful column in the Guardian today, about the way the nation is slowly turning against lockdown. He's on the money
The credulous, slavish social democrat yearning for more restrictions - more, more! lock us down more! - will soon become self defeating and then electorally toxic. The people have had enough, they know this all costs money and sanity, absent a scary new Black Death variant we are on the brink of saying Fuck off, Let's live
Starmer is in a rather tricky position. He has publicly and recently yelled for more lockdown. What if the science suddenly says he is wrong? There is danger here for the New Authoritarian Left
Demonization of people who believe in a different trade-off between life and leisure activity is part of the problem, whichever way it goes. Only extremists have a view of always being for lockdown or always be against. Most of us are in an area of the grey in between, and support or oppose lockdown depending on the severity of the variant, the transmissibility and the level of vaccine escape. I am sure Starmer is one of those people.
Hmmm
I get the impression - and, fair enough, perhaps it is false - that Labour has consistently been in favour of harder lockdown, and earlier, and hang the expense, as compared to the Tories. Labour has seen how this plays well for Sturgeon (and perhaps Drakeford) and they have copied. And of course if you don't have to worry about the cost of this 9th lockdown-and-furlough, what's the problem?
Well, here is the problem, now emerging. The voters are turning against restrictions. We are done. Let us be free. More thoughtful voters are also worrying about the debt we are running up. We all sense that this cannot go on
Labour need a new post-lockdown narrative, or they will get caught in a bad space
As for test recording when I tested positive I did, say, ten LFTs of which five were positive. If I had recorded them all then surely the positive test results would have been increased fivefold.
So surely it is only PCRs that are registered. Although that makes me wonder what about those who take multiple PCRs...
No, only 1 positive test per person is in the figures. It seems that way even if months apart and reinfection.
Incidentally, a lot of the data entry is backdated. By date of test we had 103 000 positives on the 15th Dec.
Thanks. And yes I heard the 103,000 figure for the 15th they had it on PM I think.
The RNLI have cancelled their traditional boxing day dip
And for the first time I have seen him referred to as Drakefool
On mandating working from home he said it was the same as the previous regulations which they did not prosecute a single case, but it is there so employees can report their employer if they insist on coming into the office
Corbyn style left wing control
Owen Jones (for it was he) did a surprisingly insightful, thoughtful column in the Guardian today, about the way the nation is slowly turning against lockdown. He's on the money
The credulous, slavish social democrat yearning for more restrictions - more, more! lock us down more! - will soon become self defeating and then electorally toxic. The people have had enough, they know this all costs money and sanity, absent a scary new Black Death variant we are on the brink of saying Fuck off, Let's live
Starmer is in a rather tricky position. He has publicly and recently yelled for more lockdown. What if the science suddenly says he is wrong? There is danger here for the New Authoritarian Left
Demonization of people who believe in a different trade-off between life and leisure activity is part of the problem, whichever way it goes. Only extremists have a view of always being for lockdown or always be against. Most of us are in an area of the grey in between, and support or oppose lockdown depending on the severity of the variant, the transmissibility and the level of vaccine escape. I am sure Starmer is one of those people.
Hmmm
I get the impression - and, fair enough, perhaps it is false - that Labour has consistently been in favour of harder lockdown, and earlier, and hang the expense, as compared to the Tories. Labour has seen how this plays well for Sturgeon (and perhaps Drakeford) and they have copied. And of course if you don't have to worry about the cost of this 9th lockdown-and-furlough, what's the problem?
Well, here is the problem, now emerging. The voters are turning against restrictions. We are done. Let us be free. More thoughtful voters are also worrying about the debt we are running up. We all sense that this cannot go on
Labour need a new post-lockdown narrative, or they will get caught in a bad space
Nah, Labour will be fine as long as Boris is in place. He's completely discredited with voters. I could see the Tories collapsing to under 300 seats if with Boris as PM.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 2h Replying to @andrew_lilico I'm sure that if I spent all day looking at the Imperial study I could work out what it's saying. But I'm too lazy. I want it to have a Summary that says the only two things that matter (intrinsic severity; unadjusted severity) in a form I can understand in five minutes.
And this is not a small point. Because that table is all that Cabinet ministers should or will care about. Drowning those four key numbers somewhere in tables with 30 rows each, such that ministers have no idea what was said, is a failure to deliver what really counts.
====
Maybe I am becoming even more cynical, but is this deliberate?
As for test recording when I tested positive I did, say, ten LFTs of which five were positive. If I had recorded them all then surely the positive test results would have been increased fivefold.
So surely it is only PCRs that are registered. Although that makes me wonder what about those who take multiple PCRs...
You have to put in you NHS number. So long as they count positive *cases*, where a case is a person, no problem.
The NHS number is not required when submitting an LFT result.
The RNLI have cancelled their traditional boxing day dip
And for the first time I have seen him referred to as Drakefool
On mandating working from home he said it was the same as the previous regulations which they did not prosecute a single case, but it is there so employees can report their employer if they insist on coming into the office
Corbyn style left wing control
Owen Jones (for it was he) did a surprisingly insightful, thoughtful column in the Guardian today, about the way the nation is slowly turning against lockdown. He's on the money
The credulous, slavish social democrat yearning for more restrictions - more, more! lock us down more! - will soon become self defeating and then electorally toxic. The people have had enough, they know this all costs money and sanity, absent a scary new Black Death variant we are on the brink of saying Fuck off, Let's live
Starmer is in a rather tricky position. He has publicly and recently yelled for more lockdown. What if the science suddenly says he is wrong? There is danger here for the New Authoritarian Left
Nobody holds oppositions to such calls if they are found to be wrong and the narrative moves on.
Correct. The Conservative Party backed Blair's invasion of Iraq, but nobody remembers that now.
Well it was almost 20 years ago.
Unless you are under 30, not remembering things almost 20 years ago is not something to celebrate
It was such an easy win for the Conservatives. If they had only said Yes we are as warlike as the next man but we also do due process, so we're not backing you till Blix has finally reported...
And that's not hindsight, that's what I - a tory at the time - was saying at the time. Hard to rank IDS and BJ in terms of despicability.
Can anyone advise me on travelling tomorrow. My dad is convinced there will be trouble with the trains due to staff being off with covid.
Just done Wigan to Carlisle to nearly Newcastle today. There were a number of cancellations due to staff shortages. I'd estimate about 1 in 5. However, capacity was able to cope as the ones running weren't full. My three connections went swimmingly.
Paul Mainwood @PaulMainwood Imperial: faced with these challenges we corrected for the major confounders using up a Poisson regression model with a neo-Bayesian fitting process as described in working paper 59e (to come) and …
So I finally got my 17:50 vaccine appointment at 19:45 after two hours standing in the freezing cold. Good job it was us young ones getting vaxxed and not the elderly. Some people had their kids with them. Can't help but feel those reluctant to get vaxxed are unlikely to be encouraged by that to change their mind.
Good on you, and everybody in the Queue for persevering,
The RNLI have cancelled their traditional boxing day dip
And for the first time I have seen him referred to as Drakefool
On mandating working from home he said it was the same as the previous regulations which they did not prosecute a single case, but it is there so employees can report their employer if they insist on coming into the office
Corbyn style left wing control
Owen Jones (for it was he) did a surprisingly insightful, thoughtful column in the Guardian today, about the way the nation is slowly turning against lockdown. He's on the money
The credulous, slavish social democrat yearning for more restrictions - more, more! lock us down more! - will soon become self defeating and then electorally toxic. The people have had enough, they know this all costs money and sanity, absent a scary new Black Death variant we are on the brink of saying Fuck off, Let's live
Starmer is in a rather tricky position. He has publicly and recently yelled for more lockdown. What if the science suddenly says he is wrong? There is danger here for the New Authoritarian Left
Demonization of people who believe in a different trade-off between life and leisure activity is part of the problem, whichever way it goes. Only extremists have a view of always being for lockdown or always be against. Most of us are in an area of the grey in between, and support or oppose lockdown depending on the severity of the variant, the transmissibility and the level of vaccine escape. I am sure Starmer is one of those people.
Hmmm
I get the impression - and, fair enough, perhaps it is false - that Labour has consistently been in favour of harder lockdown, and earlier, and hang the expense, as compared to the Tories. Labour has seen how this plays well for Sturgeon (and perhaps Drakeford) and they have copied. And of course if you don't have to worry about the cost of this 9th lockdown-and-furlough, what's the problem?
Well, here is the problem, now emerging. The voters are turning against restrictions. We are done. Let us be free. More thoughtful voters are also worrying about the debt we are running up. We all sense that this cannot go on
Labour need a new post-lockdown narrative, or they will get caught in a bad space
The thing is that Starmer has just been a vacuous empty shell. Captain Hindsight come to life.
He hasn't called for lockdown this wave because he hasn't called for anything this wave. He's an entirely empty suit. He even voted for Plan B without proposing that there would need to be more support for Hospitality or anything else. 🤦♂️
Being an empty shell may be fine if the PM is shooting himself in his foot, but if things start to look better in the next few weeks and months then its not really a solid foundation that Labour have built up here.
As for test recording when I tested positive I did, say, ten LFTs of which five were positive. If I had recorded them all then surely the positive test results would have been increased fivefold.
So surely it is only PCRs that are registered. Although that makes me wonder what about those who take multiple PCRs...
You have to put in you NHS number. So long as they count positive *cases*, where a case is a person, no problem.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 2h Replying to @andrew_lilico I'm sure that if I spent all day looking at the Imperial study I could work out what it's saying. But I'm too lazy. I want it to have a Summary that says the only two things that matter (intrinsic severity; unadjusted severity) in a form I can understand in five minutes.
And this is not a small point. Because that table is all that Cabinet ministers should or will care about. Drowning those four key numbers somewhere in tables with 30 rows each, such that ministers have no idea what was said, is a failure to deliver what really counts.
====
Maybe I am becoming even more cynical, but is this deliberate?
Tbf, the Edinburgh paper will get a lot more play, simply because it's easy to read and understand. They both basically say the same thing too aiui, a 60-70% reduction in overnight hospitalisations. The Imperial one just says it in a slightly weird way.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 2h Replying to @andrew_lilico I'm sure that if I spent all day looking at the Imperial study I could work out what it's saying. But I'm too lazy. I want it to have a Summary that says the only two things that matter (intrinsic severity; unadjusted severity) in a form I can understand in five minutes.
And this is not a small point. Because that table is all that Cabinet ministers should or will care about. Drowning those four key numbers somewhere in tables with 30 rows each, such that ministers have no idea what was said, is a failure to deliver what really counts.
====
Maybe I am becoming even more cynical, but is this deliberate?
Again PM (Go Evan!) had it clearly.
Scottish study: two thirds reduction in severity (and/or hospitalisations); Imperial study: 40-45% reduction.
As for test recording when I tested positive I did, say, ten LFTs of which five were positive. If I had recorded them all then surely the positive test results would have been increased fivefold.
So surely it is only PCRs that are registered. Although that makes me wonder what about those who take multiple PCRs...
You have to put in you NHS number. So long as they count positive *cases*, where a case is a person, no problem.
The NHS number is not required when submitting an LFT result.
Oh, I thought you did. How come my results show up on my NHS App?
Almost every front page now leading on omi being less severe.
Johnson would be mad to now start talking about lockdown from 28th or 3rd Jan.
I said last night I suspected the decision was already all-but-made not to lockdown because of the lifting of self-isolation from day 7. If you were looking to increase restrictions, then reducing the time the infected are isolated seems a strange way to start - but if you know things are going to be fine, then that's a good way to ease the isolation problem.
Its a question of when to lift Plan B and when to abolish isolation altogether, as opposed to what restrictions to add now.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 2h Replying to @andrew_lilico I'm sure that if I spent all day looking at the Imperial study I could work out what it's saying. But I'm too lazy. I want it to have a Summary that says the only two things that matter (intrinsic severity; unadjusted severity) in a form I can understand in five minutes.
And this is not a small point. Because that table is all that Cabinet ministers should or will care about. Drowning those four key numbers somewhere in tables with 30 rows each, such that ministers have no idea what was said, is a failure to deliver what really counts.
====
Maybe I am becoming even more cynical, but is this deliberate?
No, it’s just the way papers in this field tend to be. Picking effects out of the data is actually quite tricky. Population sampling is as far away from ‘ideal’ science experimentation as possible.
Almost every front page now leading on omi being less severe.
Johnson would be mad to now start talking about lockdown from 28th or 3rd Jan.
I said last night I suspected the decision was already all-but-made not to lockdown because of the lifting of self-isolation from day 7. If you were looking to increase restrictions, then reducing the time the infected are isolated seems a strange way to start - but if you know things are going to be fine, then that's a good way to ease the isolation problem.
Its a question of when to lift Plan B and when to abolish isolation altogether, as opposed to what restrictions to add now.
As for test recording when I tested positive I did, say, ten LFTs of which five were positive. If I had recorded them all then surely the positive test results would have been increased fivefold.
So surely it is only PCRs that are registered. Although that makes me wonder what about those who take multiple PCRs...
You have to put in you NHS number. So long as they count positive *cases*, where a case is a person, no problem.
Thanks.
Though check @Foxy's comments too as he thinks I may have that wrong and tbh he's in a much better position than me to know.
I have to say the FT article doesn't quite fill me with joy -
Omicron reduces an individual's hospitalisation risk by 11%.
Omicron, because it infects more immune people, reduces overall hospitalisation risk by 25%.
(not sure which source paper, but is that relative to Delta or relative to a basket of previous COVID?)
If relative to Delta, my question would then be. Is that all?
Man, you need to read everything
There are at least FIVE relevant studies out just today
Imperial is maybe the most cautious, seeing a hospitalisation lowering of 10-45%, with various caveats (but it accepts the lowering of severe disease and death might be much more)
Denmark, also out. Roughly similar, but they too are playing it down, "too early to say"
The leaked UKHSA report. All we know is that it says "Omicron is less severe", but this candour is unusual from them
Scotland. 60-70% lowering of hospitalisation
South Africa: 80% lowering of hospitalisation
Take them all together. This is two big spoonfuls of sugar in a previously bitter cup of tea
I don’t think Starmer is reflexively in favour of Lockdown, but some others in Labour may well be. I remember him surprising everyone last year by demanding that Schools should open and remain so, when a lot of the left and teaching unions were still resisting any opening up.
Actually I’m not sure it’s “the left” per se. It’s the authoritarian statists, some of whom are left left but which include a lot of Blairites and social democrats including, frustratingly, a few in the Lib Dems. And there are some on patrician and nationalist right too.
'Very little time if you bother to set up an account!' Have you actually done it? Pointless repetition of data every time that can and should have been saved, including name and date of birth, when all it should have is date of test, serial number and result.
It's an appalling piece of work and it's an utter waste of time anyway. Positive tests are the ones that actually matter.
If you set up an account it saves all your answers, so you only have to click through a few pages, answering a few questions that have radio buttons, and then put in the test number or scan the QR code. It doesn't take any more than 60 seconds to do.
Unless it's changed in the last week, I had to enter all my info again for my second negative test 2 days after the previous one, despite an account. Totalling (I think) 16 separate presses of ENTER. Each page took 5-10 seconds to load. Usually for a single data item.
Terrible design. I keep examples of bad design for future reference and this is one of them.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 2h Replying to @andrew_lilico I'm sure that if I spent all day looking at the Imperial study I could work out what it's saying. But I'm too lazy. I want it to have a Summary that says the only two things that matter (intrinsic severity; unadjusted severity) in a form I can understand in five minutes.
And this is not a small point. Because that table is all that Cabinet ministers should or will care about. Drowning those four key numbers somewhere in tables with 30 rows each, such that ministers have no idea what was said, is a failure to deliver what really counts.
====
Maybe I am becoming even more cynical, but is this deliberate?
Tbf, the Edinburgh paper will get a lot more play, simply because it's easy to read and understand. They both basically say the same thing too aiui, a 60-70% reduction in overnight hospitalisations. The Imperial one just says it in a slightly weird way.
Reminds me of the dead simple Pfizer trials results vs the confusing AZ ones. Science communication.
"Separately, Danish data showed that among people who tested positive between November 22 and December 15, Omicron cases were three times less likely to be admitted to hospital than cases with other variants. But experts warned that the concentration of Omicron outbreaks among younger groups could skew the data.
(Chart showing that so far, Omicron cases in Denmark skew younger than cases from other variants)
“It is primarily young and vaccinated people who are infected with Omicron, and when we adjust for this, we see no evidence that Omicron should result in milder disease,” said Henrik Ullum, director of the Statens Serum Institut, Denmark’s public health agency, in a press conference on Wednesday."
Does anyone know if the Scottish study was similarly age corrected?
'Very little time if you bother to set up an account!' Have you actually done it? Pointless repetition of data every time that can and should have been saved, including name and date of birth, when all it should have is date of test, serial number and result.
It's an appalling piece of work and it's an utter waste of time anyway. Positive tests are the ones that actually matter.
If you set up an account it saves all your answers, so you only have to click through a few pages, answering a few questions that have radio buttons, and then put in the test number or scan the QR code. It doesn't take any more than 60 seconds to do.
Unless it's changed in the last week, I had to enter all my info again for my second negative test 2 days after the previous one, despite an account. Totalling (I think) 16 separate presses of ENTER. Each page took 5-10 seconds to load. Usually for a single data item.
Terrible design. I keep examples of bad design for future reference and this is one of them.
"Positive tests are the ones that actually matter."
Nope. Stats people need the % of + vs the total of tests.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 2h Replying to @andrew_lilico I'm sure that if I spent all day looking at the Imperial study I could work out what it's saying. But I'm too lazy. I want it to have a Summary that says the only two things that matter (intrinsic severity; unadjusted severity) in a form I can understand in five minutes.
And this is not a small point. Because that table is all that Cabinet ministers should or will care about. Drowning those four key numbers somewhere in tables with 30 rows each, such that ministers have no idea what was said, is a failure to deliver what really counts.
====
Maybe I am becoming even more cynical, but is this deliberate?
Tbf, the Edinburgh paper will get a lot more play, simply because it's easy to read and understand. They both basically say the same thing too aiui, a 60-70% reduction in overnight hospitalisations. The Imperial one just says it in a slightly weird way.
On the radio discussing it they said the Imperial study wasn't as "good" as the Scottish one. IIRC reduction of 40-50% (Imperial) vs two thirds (Scottish) for Omicron vs Delta.
Almost every front page now leading on omi being less severe.
Johnson would be mad to now start talking about lockdown from 28th or 3rd Jan.
I said last night I suspected the decision was already all-but-made not to lockdown because of the lifting of self-isolation from day 7. If you were looking to increase restrictions, then reducing the time the infected are isolated seems a strange way to start - but if you know things are going to be fine, then that's a good way to ease the isolation problem.
Its a question of when to lift Plan B and when to abolish isolation altogether, as opposed to what restrictions to add now.
You didn't exist last night
LOL.
I'm not trying to hide my continuity, I'm not pretending like a certain someone that I'm not who I am.
I just don't want my real name associated which I think is a reasonable request. I am looking at a possible new job next year and I don't want to be doxxed.
Almost every front page now leading on omi being less severe.
Johnson would be mad to now start talking about lockdown from 28th or 3rd Jan.
I said last night I suspected the decision was already all-but-made not to lockdown because of the lifting of self-isolation from day 7. If you were looking to increase restrictions, then reducing the time the infected are isolated seems a strange way to start - but if you know things are going to be fine, then that's a good way to ease the isolation problem.
Its a question of when to lift Plan B and when to abolish isolation altogether, as opposed to what restrictions to add now.
You didn't exist last night
LOL.
I'm not trying to hide my continuity, I'm not pretending like a certain someone that I'm not who I am.
I just don't want my real name associated which I think is a reasonable request. I am looking at a possible new job next year and I don't want to be doxxed.
One day I hope that Xi Jinping pays for this evil. I guess the CCP would point at America or Britain or the EU and say look, democracy sucks, this is better, but it is not. Democracy is having a bad time, but it is better than Beijing
I have to say the FT article doesn't quite fill me with joy -
Omicron reduces an individual's hospitalisation risk by 11%.
Omicron, because it infects more immune people, reduces overall hospitalisation risk by 25%.
(not sure which source paper, but is that relative to Delta or relative to a basket of previous COVID?)
If relative to Delta, my question would then be. Is that all?
Man, you need to read everything
There are at least FIVE relevant studies out just today
Imperial is maybe the most cautious, seeing a hospitalisation lowering of 10-45%, with various caveats (but it accepts the lowering of severe disease and death might be much more)
Denmark, also out. Roughly similar, but they too are playing it down, "too early to say"
The leaked UKHSA report. All we know is that it says "Omicron is less severe", but this candour is unusual from them
Scotland. 60-70% lowering of hospitalisation
South Africa: 80% lowering of hospitalisation
Take them all together. This is two big spoonfuls of sugar in a previously bitter cup of tea
Or, to push the metaphor, 5 spoons all with sugar on, 2 of them heaped with loads of sugar on!
Almost every front page now leading on omi being less severe.
Johnson would be mad to now start talking about lockdown from 28th or 3rd Jan.
I said last night I suspected the decision was already all-but-made not to lockdown because of the lifting of self-isolation from day 7. If you were looking to increase restrictions, then reducing the time the infected are isolated seems a strange way to start - but if you know things are going to be fine, then that's a good way to ease the isolation problem.
Its a question of when to lift Plan B and when to abolish isolation altogether, as opposed to what restrictions to add now.
You didn't exist last night
LOL.
I'm not trying to hide my continuity, I'm not pretending like a certain someone that I'm not who I am.
I just don't want my real name associated which I think is a reasonable request. I am looking at a possible new job next year and I don't want to be doxxed.
Perfectly sensible. My username is not my real name either.
'Very little time if you bother to set up an account!' Have you actually done it? Pointless repetition of data every time that can and should have been saved, including name and date of birth, when all it should have is date of test, serial number and result.
It's an appalling piece of work and it's an utter waste of time anyway. Positive tests are the ones that actually matter.
If you set up an account it saves all your answers, so you only have to click through a few pages, answering a few questions that have radio buttons, and then put in the test number or scan the QR code. It doesn't take any more than 60 seconds to do.
Unless it's changed in the last week, I had to enter all my info again for my second negative test 2 days after the previous one, despite an account. Totalling (I think) 16 separate presses of ENTER. Each page took 5-10 seconds to load. Usually for a single data item.
Terrible design. I keep examples of bad design for future reference and this is one of them.
It keeps all my data. It may depend on cookie settings etc perhaps.
'Very little time if you bother to set up an account!' Have you actually done it? Pointless repetition of data every time that can and should have been saved, including name and date of birth, when all it should have is date of test, serial number and result.
It's an appalling piece of work and it's an utter waste of time anyway. Positive tests are the ones that actually matter.
If you set up an account it saves all your answers, so you only have to click through a few pages, answering a few questions that have radio buttons, and then put in the test number or scan the QR code. It doesn't take any more than 60 seconds to do.
Unless it's changed in the last week, I had to enter all my info again for my second negative test 2 days after the previous one, despite an account. Totalling (I think) 16 separate presses of ENTER. Each page took 5-10 seconds to load. Usually for a single data item.
Terrible design. I keep examples of bad design for future reference and this is one of them.
Mine was way simpler than that, and I didn’t even need to give my NHS number (it’s an option). And it all shows up in my NHS app records straight away. Maybe a difference between being registered and signed in vs entering details as a one-off?
I have to say the FT article doesn't quite fill me with joy -
Omicron reduces an individual's hospitalisation risk by 11%.
Omicron, because it infects more immune people, reduces overall hospitalisation risk by 25%.
(not sure which source paper, but is that relative to Delta or relative to a basket of previous COVID?)
If relative to Delta, my question would then be. Is that all?
Man, you need to read everything
There are at least FIVE relevant studies out just today
Imperial is maybe the most cautious, seeing a hospitalisation lowering of 10-45%, with various caveats (but it accepts the lowering of severe disease and death might be much more)
Denmark, also out. Roughly similar, but they too are playing it down, "too early to say"
The leaked UKHSA report. All we know is that it says "Omicron is less severe", but this candour is unusual from them
Scotland. 60-70% lowering of hospitalisation
South Africa: 80% lowering of hospitalisation
Take them all together. This is two big spoonfuls of sugar in a previously bitter cup of tea
Am off to bed just having read the newspaper filtered numbers.
Would normally read on a bit, but the last day of work is an early start and big talk stuff this go, so will settle to them with a tea and biscuit tomorrow afternoon if all goes well.
Christopher Snowdon @cjsnowdon · 3h New study from Imperial finds significant reduction in risk of hospitalisation from Omicron, almost as if those doctors in South Africa weren’t lying after all.
Almost every front page now leading on omi being less severe.
Johnson would be mad to now start talking about lockdown from 28th or 3rd Jan.
I said last night I suspected the decision was already all-but-made not to lockdown because of the lifting of self-isolation from day 7. If you were looking to increase restrictions, then reducing the time the infected are isolated seems a strange way to start - but if you know things are going to be fine, then that's a good way to ease the isolation problem.
Its a question of when to lift Plan B and when to abolish isolation altogether, as opposed to what restrictions to add now.
You didn't exist last night
LOL.
I'm not trying to hide my continuity, I'm not pretending like a certain someone that I'm not who I am.
I just don't want my real name associated which I think is a reasonable request. I am looking at a possible new job next year and I don't want to be doxxed.
Sure, OK, no more. Who is this Thompson guy anyway?
I have to say the FT article doesn't quite fill me with joy -
Omicron reduces an individual's hospitalisation risk by 11%.
Omicron, because it infects more immune people, reduces overall hospitalisation risk by 25%.
(not sure which source paper, but is that relative to Delta or relative to a basket of previous COVID?)
If relative to Delta, my question would then be. Is that all?
Man, you need to read everything
There are at least FIVE relevant studies out just today
Imperial is maybe the most cautious, seeing a hospitalisation lowering of 10-45%, with various caveats (but it accepts the lowering of severe disease and death might be much more)
Denmark, also out. Roughly similar, but they too are playing it down, "too early to say"
The leaked UKHSA report. All we know is that it says "Omicron is less severe", but this candour is unusual from them
Scotland. 60-70% lowering of hospitalisation
South Africa: 80% lowering of hospitalisation
Take them all together. This is two big spoonfuls of sugar in a previously bitter cup of tea
Am off to bed just having read the newspaper filtered numbers.
Would normally read on a bit, but the last day of work is an early start and big talk stuff this go, so will settle to them with a tea and biscuit tomorrow afternoon if all goes well.
Enjoy. Sleep well. But this is definitely good news, so be of good cheer
'Very little time if you bother to set up an account!' Have you actually done it? Pointless repetition of data every time that can and should have been saved, including name and date of birth, when all it should have is date of test, serial number and result.
It's an appalling piece of work and it's an utter waste of time anyway. Positive tests are the ones that actually matter.
If you set up an account it saves all your answers, so you only have to click through a few pages, answering a few questions that have radio buttons, and then put in the test number or scan the QR code. It doesn't take any more than 60 seconds to do.
Unless it's changed in the last week, I had to enter all my info again for my second negative test 2 days after the previous one, despite an account. Totalling (I think) 16 separate presses of ENTER. Each page took 5-10 seconds to load. Usually for a single data item.
Terrible design. I keep examples of bad design for future reference and this is one of them.
Mine was way simpler than that, and I didn’t even need to give my NHS number (it’s an option). And it all shows up in my NHS app records straight away. Maybe a difference between being registered and signed in vs entering details as a one-off?
Mine has Mrs Foxys details too, so I can enter her results. When I login it asks who I am reporting for, and both of us are there with all demographics, just need to scan the QR code on the test and enter the result.
As for test recording when I tested positive I did, say, ten LFTs of which five were positive. If I had recorded them all then surely the positive test results would have been increased fivefold.
So surely it is only PCRs that are registered. Although that makes me wonder what about those who take multiple PCRs...
You have to put in you NHS number. So long as they count positive *cases*, where a case is a person, no problem.
The NHS number is not required when submitting an LFT result.
Oh, I thought you did. How come my results show up on my NHS App?
'Very little time if you bother to set up an account!' Have you actually done it? Pointless repetition of data every time that can and should have been saved, including name and date of birth, when all it should have is date of test, serial number and result.
It's an appalling piece of work and it's an utter waste of time anyway. Positive tests are the ones that actually matter.
If you set up an account it saves all your answers, so you only have to click through a few pages, answering a few questions that have radio buttons, and then put in the test number or scan the QR code. It doesn't take any more than 60 seconds to do.
Unless it's changed in the last week, I had to enter all my info again for my second negative test 2 days after the previous one, despite an account. Totalling (I think) 16 separate presses of ENTER. Each page took 5-10 seconds to load. Usually for a single data item.
Terrible design. I keep examples of bad design for future reference and this is one of them.
It keeps all my data. It may depend on cookie settings etc perhaps.
Hmm, I'll have a look. But I'm essentially lazy and always accept the default so it's surprising it doesn't work that way by default. Might be something weird about my phone settings perhaps.
The number of covid admissions in London has gone above 300 but ventilation numbers have gone down slightly again. No real talk about hospital pressure after a month of omicron cases. The biggest problem seems to covering for all the staff who are having to isolate.
I have to say the FT article doesn't quite fill me with joy -
Omicron reduces an individual's hospitalisation risk by 11%.
Omicron, because it infects more immune people, reduces overall hospitalisation risk by 25%.
(not sure which source paper, but is that relative to Delta or relative to a basket of previous COVID?)
If relative to Delta, my question would then be. Is that all?
Man, you need to read everything
There are at least FIVE relevant studies out just today
Imperial is maybe the most cautious, seeing a hospitalisation lowering of 10-45%, with various caveats (but it accepts the lowering of severe disease and death might be much more)
Denmark, also out. Roughly similar, but they too are playing it down, "too early to say"
The leaked UKHSA report. All we know is that it says "Omicron is less severe", but this candour is unusual from them
Scotland. 60-70% lowering of hospitalisation
South Africa: 80% lowering of hospitalisation
Take them all together. This is two big spoonfuls of sugar in a previously bitter cup of tea
Fingers-crossed. Still suspect we'll have a wobbly few weeks in January though... Christmas family socialising, kids back at school, workers back in the office/factory/etc.
Going to get colder too - not sure if that helps or hinders.
Almost every front page now leading on omi being less severe.
Johnson would be mad to now start talking about lockdown from 28th or 3rd Jan.
I said last night I suspected the decision was already all-but-made not to lockdown because of the lifting of self-isolation from day 7. If you were looking to increase restrictions, then reducing the time the infected are isolated seems a strange way to start - but if you know things are going to be fine, then that's a good way to ease the isolation problem.
Its a question of when to lift Plan B and when to abolish isolation altogether, as opposed to what restrictions to add now.
You didn't exist last night
LOL.
I'm not trying to hide my continuity, I'm not pretending like a certain someone that I'm not who I am.
I just don't want my real name associated which I think is a reasonable request. I am looking at a possible new job next year and I don't want to be doxxed.
Perfectly sensible. My username is not my real name either.
You astonish me.
I post under my own name and use a standard passport photograph of myself as my avatar. I have no time at all for pseudonymous cowards who do anything else.
The nature of it reminds me of conversations I've had with a few IT wonks in the past. Theres no nuance or kind of critical thought out of them at all.
Almost every front page now leading on omi being less severe.
Johnson would be mad to now start talking about lockdown from 28th or 3rd Jan.
I said last night I suspected the decision was already all-but-made not to lockdown because of the lifting of self-isolation from day 7. If you were looking to increase restrictions, then reducing the time the infected are isolated seems a strange way to start - but if you know things are going to be fine, then that's a good way to ease the isolation problem.
Its a question of when to lift Plan B and when to abolish isolation altogether, as opposed to what restrictions to add now.
You didn't exist last night
LOL.
I'm not trying to hide my continuity, I'm not pretending like a certain someone that I'm not who I am.
I just don't want my real name associated which I think is a reasonable request. I am looking at a possible new job next year and I don't want to be doxxed.
Perfectly sensible. My username is not my real name either.
You astonish me.
I post under my own name and use a standard passport photograph of myself as my avatar. I have no time at all for pseudonymous cowards who do anything else.
Fair enough. But when you're a public figure like me you have to use a degree of disguise.
I have to say the FT article doesn't quite fill me with joy -
Omicron reduces an individual's hospitalisation risk by 11%.
Omicron, because it infects more immune people, reduces overall hospitalisation risk by 25%.
(not sure which source paper, but is that relative to Delta or relative to a basket of previous COVID?)
If relative to Delta, my question would then be. Is that all?
Man, you need to read everything
There are at least FIVE relevant studies out just today
Imperial is maybe the most cautious, seeing a hospitalisation lowering of 10-45%, with various caveats (but it accepts the lowering of severe disease and death might be much more)
Denmark, also out. Roughly similar, but they too are playing it down, "too early to say"
The leaked UKHSA report. All we know is that it says "Omicron is less severe", but this candour is unusual from them
Scotland. 60-70% lowering of hospitalisation
South Africa: 80% lowering of hospitalisation
Take them all together. This is two big spoonfuls of sugar in a previously bitter cup of tea
Fingers-crossed. Still suspect we'll have a wobbly few weeks in January though... Christmas family socialising, kids back at school, workers back in the office/factory/etc.
Going to get colder too - not sure if that helps or hinders.
The suggestion is cold snaps do correlate postively with rising cases.
Johnson and Starmer will see mixed polling news in the polls and the delayed local elections. Boris will be able to champion having got Brexit done and the vaccination rollout should be well embedded by May. Starmer will still be emphasising his own new leadership and criticising anything that goes wrong in hindsight. The two parties are likely to remain within margin of error of each other throughout the year – with whichever party is in the lead at any one time being championed by their own supporters but either way ignore it. Its years until the next election and none of this will matter by then.
I stand by what I said a full 12 months ago: whichever party is in the lead at any one time being championed by their own supporters but either way ignore it. Its years until the next election and none of this will matter by then.
I need to re-read my predictions and see how accurate I was or not, not done that yet, just searched for that quote.
She lives in the small town of 25k I grew up in. It's quite knocked the community for six. And overshadowed all covid and Chrimbo thoughts. Head of Safeguarding at a Primary school...
Johnson and Starmer will see mixed polling news in the polls and the delayed local elections. Boris will be able to champion having got Brexit done and the vaccination rollout should be well embedded by May. Starmer will still be emphasising his own new leadership and criticising anything that goes wrong in hindsight. The two parties are likely to remain within margin of error of each other throughout the year – with whichever party is in the lead at any one time being championed by their own supporters but either way ignore it. Its years until the next election and none of this will matter by then.
I stand by what I said a full 12 months ago: whichever party is in the lead at any one time being championed by their own supporters but either way ignore it. Its years until the next election and none of this will matter by then.
I need to re-read my predictions and see how accurate I was or not, not done that yet, just searched for that quote.
I said Johnson would fall behind and Labour would pull ahead. I was laughed at
Johnson and Starmer will see mixed polling news in the polls and the delayed local elections. Boris will be able to champion having got Brexit done and the vaccination rollout should be well embedded by May. Starmer will still be emphasising his own new leadership and criticising anything that goes wrong in hindsight. The two parties are likely to remain within margin of error of each other throughout the year – with whichever party is in the lead at any one time being championed by their own supporters but either way ignore it. Its years until the next election and none of this will matter by then.
I stand by what I said a full 12 months ago: whichever party is in the lead at any one time being championed by their own supporters but either way ignore it. Its years until the next election and none of this will matter by then.
I need to re-read my predictions and see how accurate I was or not, not done that yet, just searched for that quote.
I said Johnson would fall behind and Labour would pull ahead. I was laughed at
Literally laughed at? I think your overegging the reaction somewhat (similar to claims of being shouted down etc).
She lives in the small town of 25k I grew up in. It's quite knocked the community for six. And overshadowed all covid and Chrimbo thoughts. Head of Safeguarding at a Primary school...
Particularly worrying is that she was Safeguarding lead, albeit unrelated to this offence.
I would suggest we open the Taiwanese embassy opposite the Chines embassy and the statues in the midal, But I was never very good at diplomacy.
Obviously not my friend. You can't have both a PRC and an ROC Embassy. Doing so would imply there are two Chinas!! Rookie error for a diplomat.
That was meant as a Jock,
As I have posted on here before, I support recognise Taiwan, as Lithuania has recently, and if China gets in to a huf, and withdraws their ambassador, that's there issue.
I have just watched part 1 of the 2013 Great Train Robbery film. They have snow falling in London in August - and you don't have to have independent info to know that, 4 days later they say on screen "12 August - 4 days later"
Also just watched No Country for Old Men for the 3rd time, and it vies with Private Ryan for being superb for 40 minutes and then meh. Brilliant up to and including Anton not shooting the gas station guy, then yawn, a lotta guys getting shot in motels, and who throws a briefcase full of money into a swamp?
Ouch just reading my predictions back now. A few of them were very bad.
Trump will continue to complain and be a sore loser but will fade out of office and into ignominy, there will be no disruption to Biden’s inauguration. 2021 will be a relatively calm political year in the USA as people
Less than a week later that prediction was demolished. Ouch. I despised Trump but he went even worse than my worst opinion of him with January 6.
My best prediction was probably to keep an eye on Truss, and COP21 went even better than I [then optimistically] was predicting.
Shame one prediction I didn't get wrong was Australia retaining the Ashes!
"Separately, Danish data showed that among people who tested positive between November 22 and December 15, Omicron cases were three times less likely to be admitted to hospital than cases with other variants. But experts warned that the concentration of Omicron outbreaks among younger groups could skew the data.
(Chart showing that so far, Omicron cases in Denmark skew younger than cases from other variants)
“It is primarily young and vaccinated people who are infected with Omicron, and when we adjust for this, we see no evidence that Omicron should result in milder disease,” said Henrik Ullum, director of the Statens Serum Institut, Denmark’s public health agency, in a press conference on Wednesday."
Does anyone know if the Scottish study was similarly age corrected?
Data on Omicron is good news for the individual who catches it compared to Delta. Might not be so good for wider society or the NHS, depending how many catch it.
Comments
There's a lot of Cameroon Tories who thought he was in their side until he wasn't.
It is also supremely important to avoid groupthink. You need at least one in every organisation. I'd be more annoyed if there wasn't at least someone saying "Yes, but."
I really hope the authoritarian left in Wales and Scotland finally get found out
Yes, I have to agree with you there. Boris is clearly a quantity not quality guy. For a supposed Premiership swordsman, he keeps zorro-ing some, errrr, decidedly 4th Division Leylands DIY Sponsored talent
Trump, despite his supposed flaws, kept it high and stylish. A succession of serious beauties. Melania!
But I fear we err towards boorish misogyny, so it's best we go back to Our Divided Covid Cabinet
To repeat- I really don't want any post-Christmas social restrictions. Especially since that's when I'm doing all the flitting around family. But when the people who I semi-trust to not be idiots are the ones saying "hey, this might be a bit flaky" and the ones I don't trust are celebrating a great victory... I hope they're right, but I wonder.
And saying "X is a power mad authoritarian" just when they disagree with what you want is just lazy.
I get the impression - and, fair enough, perhaps it is false - that Labour has consistently been in favour of harder lockdown, and earlier, and hang the expense, as compared to the Tories. Labour has seen how this plays well for Sturgeon (and perhaps Drakeford) and they have copied. And of course if you don't have to worry about the cost of this 9th lockdown-and-furlough, what's the problem?
Well, here is the problem, now emerging. The voters are turning against restrictions. We are done. Let us be free. More thoughtful voters are also worrying about the debt we are running up. We all sense that this cannot go on
Labour need a new post-lockdown narrative, or they will get caught in a bad space
Johnson would be mad to now start talking about lockdown from 28th or 3rd Jan.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-59764029
It actually seems like Boris himself has been put into lockdown.
@andrew_lilico
·
2h
Replying to
@andrew_lilico
I'm sure that if I spent all day looking at the Imperial study I could work out what it's saying. But I'm too lazy. I want it to have a Summary that says the only two things that matter (intrinsic severity; unadjusted severity) in a form I can understand in five minutes.
And this is not a small point. Because that table is all that Cabinet ministers should or will care about. Drowning those four key numbers somewhere in tables with 30 rows each, such that ministers have no idea what was said, is a failure to deliver what really counts.
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Maybe I am becoming even more cynical, but is this deliberate?
It was such an easy win for the Conservatives. If they had only said Yes we are as warlike as the next man but we also do due process, so we're not backing you till Blix has finally reported...
And that's not hindsight, that's what I - a tory at the time - was saying at the time. Hard to rank IDS and BJ in terms of despicability.
There were a number of cancellations due to staff shortages. I'd estimate about 1 in 5.
However, capacity was able to cope as the ones running weren't full.
My three connections went swimmingly.
@PaulMainwood
Imperial: faced with these challenges we corrected for the major confounders using up a Poisson regression model with a neo-Bayesian fitting process as described in working paper 59e (to come) and …
Edinburgh: we looked at who got sick.
He hasn't called for lockdown this wave because he hasn't called for anything this wave. He's an entirely empty suit. He even voted for Plan B without proposing that there would need to be more support for Hospitality or anything else. 🤦♂️
Being an empty shell may be fine if the PM is shooting himself in his foot, but if things start to look better in the next few weeks and months then its not really a solid foundation that Labour have built up here.
Omicron reduces an individual's hospitalisation risk by 11%.
Omicron, because it infects more immune people, reduces overall hospitalisation risk by 25%.
(not sure which source paper, but is that relative to Delta or relative to a basket of previous COVID?)
If relative to Delta, my question would then be. Is that all?
Scottish study: two thirds reduction in severity (and/or hospitalisations); Imperial study: 40-45% reduction.
Its a question of when to lift Plan B and when to abolish isolation altogether, as opposed to what restrictions to add now.
There are at least FIVE relevant studies out just today
Imperial is maybe the most cautious, seeing a hospitalisation lowering of 10-45%, with various caveats (but it accepts the lowering of severe disease and death might be much more)
Denmark, also out. Roughly similar, but they too are playing it down, "too early to say"
The leaked UKHSA report. All we know is that it says "Omicron is less severe", but this candour is unusual from them
Scotland. 60-70% lowering of hospitalisation
South Africa: 80% lowering of hospitalisation
Take them all together. This is two big spoonfuls of sugar in a previously bitter cup of tea
Actually I’m not sure it’s “the left” per se. It’s the authoritarian statists, some of whom are left left but which include a lot of Blairites and social democrats including, frustratingly, a few in the Lib Dems. And there are some on patrician and nationalist right too.
Terrible design. I keep examples of bad design for future reference and this is one of them.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-59764029
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/19065fba-025c-43fd-bd76-37234af97953
"Separately, Danish data showed that among people who tested positive between November 22 and December 15, Omicron cases were three times less likely to be admitted to hospital than cases with other variants. But experts warned that the concentration of Omicron outbreaks among younger groups could skew the data.
(Chart showing that so far, Omicron cases in Denmark skew younger than cases from other variants)
“It is primarily young and vaccinated people who are infected with Omicron, and when we adjust for this, we see no evidence that Omicron should result in milder disease,” said Henrik Ullum, director of the Statens Serum Institut, Denmark’s public health agency, in a press conference on Wednesday."
Does anyone know if the Scottish study was similarly age corrected?
Nope. Stats people need the % of + vs the total of tests.
I'm not trying to hide my continuity, I'm not pretending like a certain someone that I'm not who I am.
I just don't want my real name associated which I think is a reasonable request. I am looking at a possible new job next year and I don't want to be doxxed.
Would normally read on a bit, but the last day of work is an early start and big talk stuff this go, so will settle to them with a tea and biscuit tomorrow afternoon if all goes well.
@cjsnowdon
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3h
New study from Imperial finds significant reduction in risk of hospitalisation from Omicron, almost as if those doctors in South Africa weren’t lying after all.
Poll ratings near 3 years out are not a consideration
Going to get colder too - not sure if that helps or hinders.
I post under my own name and use a standard passport photograph of myself as my avatar. I have no time at all for pseudonymous cowards who do anything else.
Christ.
The nature of it reminds me of conversations I've had with a few IT wonks in the past. Theres no nuance or kind of critical thought out of them at all.
Hence the dark glasses.
Doing so would imply there are two Chinas!!
Rookie error for a diplomat.
Indeed I said so (and predicted your current behaviour) in advance in my 2021 prediction thread which was published NYE last year: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/12/31/predictions-for-2021-from-the-man-who-tipped-sunak-as-next-pm-at-200-1/
Johnson and Starmer will see mixed polling news in the polls and the delayed local elections. Boris will be able to champion having got Brexit done and the vaccination rollout should be well embedded by May. Starmer will still be emphasising his own new leadership and criticising anything that goes wrong in hindsight. The two parties are likely to remain within margin of error of each other throughout the year – with whichever party is in the lead at any one time being championed by their own supporters but either way ignore it. Its years until the next election and none of this will matter by then.
I stand by what I said a full 12 months ago: whichever party is in the lead at any one time being championed by their own supporters but either way ignore it. Its years until the next election and none of this will matter by then.
I need to re-read my predictions and see how accurate I was or not, not done that yet, just searched for that quote.
https://www.wigantoday.net/news/crime/wigan-deputy-head-who-admitted-to-horrific-catalogue-of-child-sex-crimes-has-been-jailed-for-13-years-and-four-months-3504370
She lives in the small town of 25k I grew up in.
It's quite knocked the community for six.
And overshadowed all covid and Chrimbo thoughts.
Head of Safeguarding at a Primary school...
https://www.ft.com/content/83a14261-598d-4601-87fc-5dde528b33d0
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/dec/22/forklift-driver-finds-deadly-saw-scaled-viper-in-salford-brickyard
What really caught my attention though is that we transport bricks 4,000 miles from Pakistan.
As I have posted on here before, I support recognise Taiwan, as Lithuania has recently, and if China gets in to a huf, and withdraws their ambassador, that's there issue.
I have just watched part 1 of the 2013 Great Train Robbery film. They have snow falling in London in August - and you don't have to have independent info to know that, 4 days later they say on screen "12 August - 4 days later"
Also just watched No Country for Old Men for the 3rd time, and it vies with Private Ryan for being superb for 40 minutes and then meh. Brilliant up to and including Anton not shooting the gas station guy, then yawn, a lotta guys getting shot in motels, and who throws a briefcase full of money into a swamp?
Trump will continue to complain and be a sore loser but will fade out of office and into ignominy, there will be no disruption to Biden’s inauguration. 2021 will be a relatively calm political year in the USA as people
Less than a week later that prediction was demolished. Ouch. I despised Trump but he went even worse than my worst opinion of him with January 6.
My best prediction was probably to keep an eye on Truss, and COP21 went even better than I [then optimistically] was predicting.
Shame one prediction I didn't get wrong was Australia retaining the Ashes!
Data on Omicron is good news for the individual who catches it compared to Delta. Might not be so good for wider society or the NHS, depending how many catch it.
Good night
No. Just no....