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More striking evidence of Johnson’s polling decline – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • RobD said:

    So, about that lockdown on the 28th?

    Well if you live in Wales....
    The RNLI have cancelled their traditional boxing day dip

    And for the first time I have seen him referred to as Drakefool

    On mandating working from home he said it was the same as the previous regulations which they did not prosecute a single case, but it is there so employees can report their employer if they insist on coming into the office

    Corbyn style left wing control
    What utter drivel
    What is drivel about the RNLI cancelling their boxing day dip, Drakeford being called Drakefool by some, and criminalising working in an office
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited December 2021

    When did Starmer call for another lockdown

    I don't think he did this time around. He said he would support new restrictions if they were needed, but he didn't expand on whether he thought they were or not.
  • So no lockdown call from Starmer, fake news
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    So I finally got my 17:50 vaccine appointment at 19:45 after two hours standing in the freezing cold. Good job it was us young ones getting vaxxed and not the elderly. Some people had their kids with them. Can't help but feel those reluctant to get vaxxed are unlikely to be encouraged by that to change their mind.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    So no lockdown call from Starmer, fake news

    Was someone suggesting he did?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    No Cabinet minister except Gove is going to lockdown now:





    Why is Gove so lockdown mad?
    He's a massive authoritarian so having that power over people's lives appeals to his nature. Pretty sure if he could tell people at what times of day they were allowed to take a shit he would try.
    But everything I know of Gove tells me he is not a "massive authoritarian". And I hear a lot of goss about Gove. One of my best and oldest friends is very close to his (ex) wife.

    He's obviously got many faults - and virtues - but he's not the Gestapo type. Of all the Cabinet he would have been one of my last picks for a lockdown-maniac, against the data.

    Quite, quite odd. A secret new girlfriend maybe? We've seen what it did to Boris. Powerful middle aged men easily get burned and churned by pretty young ladies

    I've been told he's a massive hypocrite by people who know him, though I probably only know people who don't like him very much. Very much do as I say not as I do. For example, he's said to be in favour of the puritan crackdown on middle class drug use. He was completely opposed to reopening the late night economy and yet he was in the bars (more than we've seen too) a lot over the summer and autumn.

    There's a lot of Cameroon Tories who thought he was in their side until he wasn't.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    No Cabinet minister except Gove is going to lockdown now:





    Why is Gove so lockdown mad?
    He's a massive authoritarian so having that power over people's lives appeals to his nature. Pretty sure if he could tell people at what times of day they were allowed to take a shit he would try.
    But everything I know of Gove tells me he is not a "massive authoritarian". And I hear a lot of goss about Gove. One of my best and oldest friends is very close to his (ex) wife.

    He's obviously got many faults - and virtues - but he's not the Gestapo type. Of all the Cabinet he would have been one of my last picks for a lockdown-maniac, against the data.

    Quite, quite odd. A secret new girlfriend maybe? We've seen what it did to Boris. Powerful middle aged men easily get burned and churned by pretty young ladies

    I get the impression that he's a bit of a contrarian. If everyone thinks X he'll argue for Y. Which is vital if you want to radically change stuff.
    It is also supremely important to avoid groupthink. You need at least one in every organisation. I'd be more annoyed if there wasn't at least someone saying "Yes, but."
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,183
    Foxy said:

    When did Starmer call for another lockdown

    He hasn't in this wave has he?
    The story is mixed: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/22/labour-accused-flip-flopping-covid-restrictions/
  • RobD said:

    Here's an update of key #COVID19 metrics in Gauteng South Africa

    • Cases and test positivity declining
    • Cases trajectory halving time about 5.5 days
    • Hospital admissions at or passed its peak
    • Deaths rising, but much lower relative to previous wave (~14%)


    https://twitter.com/rid1tweets/status/1473733362644885505?s=20

    iSAGE gritting their teeth...
    Latest from them is to say Xmas is a "gamble".

  • Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    When did Starmer call for another lockdown

    He hasn't in this wave has he?
    The story is mixed: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/22/labour-accused-flip-flopping-covid-restrictions/
    Oh the impartial Telegraph!
  • Leon said:

    RobD said:

    So, about that lockdown on the 28th?

    Well if you live in Wales....
    The RNLI have cancelled their traditional boxing day dip

    And for the first time I have seen him referred to as Drakefool

    On mandating working from home he said it was the same as the previous regulations which they did not prosecute a single case, but it is there so employees can report their employer if they insist on coming into the office

    Corbyn style left wing control
    Owen Jones (for it was he) did a surprisingly insightful, thoughtful column in the Guardian today, about the way the nation is slowly turning against lockdown. He's on the money

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/22/omicron-covid-restrictions-young-people

    The credulous, slavish social democrat yearning for more restrictions - more, more! lock us down more! - will soon become self defeating and then electorally toxic. The people have had enough, they know this all costs money and sanity, absent a scary new Black Death variant we are on the brink of saying Fuck off, Let's live

    Starmer is in a rather tricky position. He has publicly and recently yelled for more lockdown. What if the science suddenly says he is wrong? There is danger here for the New Authoritarian Left
    And Starmer constantly refers to Wales as an example of how he would deal with covid

    I really hope the authoritarian left in Wales and Scotland finally get found out
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    TimT said:

    dixiedean said:

    glw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Does anyone know how many LFTs are used each day ?

    Not the number recorded as being used but including all the negative tests which are being done.

    And how does that compare to other countries ?

    negative tests are supposed to be recorded
    All tests — positive, negative, and void — are meant to be recorded. It takes very little time to do so if you bother to set up an account. People who can't be bothered are throwing away data that could help us to make better decisions about managing the pandemic.
    Well see. I didn't even know that feature existed.
    And I, like most on here, am probably better informed than the average punter.
    The instructions with the kits tell you this.
    Well then. I obviously didn't pay attention.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    RobD said:

    So no lockdown call from Starmer, fake news

    Was someone suggesting he did?
    I see Leon did. More hyperbole? ;)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,240
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    No Cabinet minister except Gove is going to lockdown now:





    Why is Gove so lockdown mad?
    He's a massive authoritarian so having that power over people's lives appeals to his nature. Pretty sure if he could tell people at what times of day they were allowed to take a shit he would try.
    But everything I know of Gove tells me he is not a "massive authoritarian". And I hear a lot of goss about Gove. One of my best and oldest friends is very close to his (ex) wife.

    He's obviously got many faults - and virtues - but he's not the Gestapo type. Of all the Cabinet he would have been one of my last picks for a lockdown-maniac, against the data.

    Quite, quite odd. A secret new girlfriend maybe? We've seen what it did to Boris. Powerful middle aged men easily get burned and churned by pretty young ladies
    You had me until "pretty." I mean, I'm not that poster with the James Bond name who has slept with more beautiful women than most people have drawn breaths, but I look at photos of Jennifer and Carrie and completely irrelevant violinists and I think, Really?
    aha

    Yes, I have to agree with you there. Boris is clearly a quantity not quality guy. For a supposed Premiership swordsman, he keeps zorro-ing some, errrr, decidedly 4th Division Leylands DIY Sponsored talent


    Trump, despite his supposed flaws, kept it high and stylish. A succession of serious beauties. Melania!

    But I fear we err towards boorish misogyny, so it's best we go back to Our Divided Covid Cabinet
  • Leon said:

    RobD said:

    So, about that lockdown on the 28th?

    Well if you live in Wales....
    The RNLI have cancelled their traditional boxing day dip

    And for the first time I have seen him referred to as Drakefool

    On mandating working from home he said it was the same as the previous regulations which they did not prosecute a single case, but it is there so employees can report their employer if they insist on coming into the office

    Corbyn style left wing control
    Owen Jones (for it was he) did a surprisingly insightful, thoughtful column in the Guardian today, about the way the nation is slowly turning against lockdown. He's on the money

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/22/omicron-covid-restrictions-young-people

    The credulous, slavish social democrat yearning for more restrictions - more, more! lock us down more! - will soon become self defeating and then electorally toxic. The people have had enough, they know this all costs money and sanity, absent a scary new Black Death variant we are on the brink of saying Fuck off, Let's live

    Starmer is in a rather tricky position. He has publicly and recently yelled for more lockdown. What if the science suddenly says he is wrong? There is danger here for the New Authoritarian Left
    Nobody holds oppositions to such calls if they are found to be wrong and the narrative moves on.
    Correct. The Conservative Party backed Blair's invasion of Iraq, but nobody remembers that now.
  • Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    When did Starmer call for another lockdown

    He hasn't in this wave has he?
    The story is mixed: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/22/labour-accused-flip-flopping-covid-restrictions/
    Oh the impartial Telegraph!
    He constantly quotes Wales as his template and maybe now he will see the error of his ways
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    So, about that lockdown on the 28th?

    Well if you live in Wales....
    The RNLI have cancelled their traditional boxing day dip

    And for the first time I have seen him referred to as Drakefool

    On mandating working from home he said it was the same as the previous regulations which they did not prosecute a single case, but it is there so employees can report their employer if they insist on coming into the office

    Corbyn style left wing control
    Owen Jones (for it was he) did a surprisingly insightful, thoughtful column in the Guardian today, about the way the nation is slowly turning against lockdown. He's on the money

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/22/omicron-covid-restrictions-young-people

    The credulous, slavish social democrat yearning for more restrictions - more, more! lock us down more! - will soon become self defeating and then electorally toxic. The people have had enough, they know this all costs money and sanity, absent a scary new Black Death variant we are on the brink of saying Fuck off, Let's live

    Starmer is in a rather tricky position. He has publicly and recently yelled for more lockdown. What if the science suddenly says he is wrong? There is danger here for the New Authoritarian Left
    Nobody holds oppositions to such calls if they are found to be wrong and the narrative moves on.
    Correct. The Conservative Party backed Blair's invasion of Iraq, but nobody remembers that now.
    Well it was almost 20 years ago.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    So, about that lockdown on the 28th?

    Well if you live in Wales....
    The RNLI have cancelled their traditional boxing day dip

    And for the first time I have seen him referred to as Drakefool

    On mandating working from home he said it was the same as the previous regulations which they did not prosecute a single case, but it is there so employees can report their employer if they insist on coming into the office

    Corbyn style left wing control
    Owen Jones (for it was he) did a surprisingly insightful, thoughtful column in the Guardian today, about the way the nation is slowly turning against lockdown. He's on the money

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/22/omicron-covid-restrictions-young-people

    The credulous, slavish social democrat yearning for more restrictions - more, more! lock us down more! - will soon become self defeating and then electorally toxic. The people have had enough, they know this all costs money and sanity, absent a scary new Black Death variant we are on the brink of saying Fuck off, Let's live

    Starmer is in a rather tricky position. He has publicly and recently yelled for more lockdown. What if the science suddenly says he is wrong? There is danger here for the New Authoritarian Left
    Demonization of people who believe in a different trade-off between life and leisure activity is part of the problem, whichever way it goes. Only extremists have a view of always being for lockdown or always be against. Most of us are in an area of the grey in between, and support or oppose lockdown depending on the severity of the variant, the transmissibility and the level of vaccine escape. I am sure Starmer is one of those people.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    So, about that lockdown on the 28th?

    Well if you live in Wales....
    The RNLI have cancelled their traditional boxing day dip

    And for the first time I have seen him referred to as Drakefool

    On mandating working from home he said it was the same as the previous regulations which they did not prosecute a single case, but it is there so employees can report their employer if they insist on coming into the office

    Corbyn style left wing control
    Owen Jones (for it was he) did a surprisingly insightful, thoughtful column in the Guardian today, about the way the nation is slowly turning against lockdown. He's on the money

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/22/omicron-covid-restrictions-young-people

    The credulous, slavish social democrat yearning for more restrictions - more, more! lock us down more! - will soon become self defeating and then electorally toxic. The people have had enough, they know this all costs money and sanity, absent a scary new Black Death variant we are on the brink of saying Fuck off, Let's live

    Starmer is in a rather tricky position. He has publicly and recently yelled for more lockdown. What if the science suddenly says he is wrong? There is danger here for the New Authoritarian Left
    Nobody holds oppositions to such calls if they are found to be wrong and the narrative moves on.
    Correct. The Conservative Party backed Blair's invasion of Iraq, but nobody remembers that now.
    Well it was almost 20 years ago.
    Labour backed our ERM membership but profited massively when it imploded.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Can anyone advise me on travelling tomorrow. My dad is convinced there will be trouble with the trains due to staff being off with covid.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878
    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    When did Starmer call for another lockdown

    He hasn't in this wave has he?
    The story is mixed: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/22/labour-accused-flip-flopping-covid-restrictions/
    Brief look at the imperial paper - seems delta is getting crushed by omicron. That’s seriously good news.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,087

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    So, about that lockdown on the 28th?

    Well if you live in Wales....
    The RNLI have cancelled their traditional boxing day dip

    And for the first time I have seen him referred to as Drakefool

    On mandating working from home he said it was the same as the previous regulations which they did not prosecute a single case, but it is there so employees can report their employer if they insist on coming into the office

    Corbyn style left wing control
    Owen Jones (for it was he) did a surprisingly insightful, thoughtful column in the Guardian today, about the way the nation is slowly turning against lockdown. He's on the money

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/22/omicron-covid-restrictions-young-people

    The credulous, slavish social democrat yearning for more restrictions - more, more! lock us down more! - will soon become self defeating and then electorally toxic. The people have had enough, they know this all costs money and sanity, absent a scary new Black Death variant we are on the brink of saying Fuck off, Let's live

    Starmer is in a rather tricky position. He has publicly and recently yelled for more lockdown. What if the science suddenly says he is wrong? There is danger here for the New Authoritarian Left
    And Starmer constantly refers to Wales as an example of how he would deal with covid

    I really hope the authoritarian left in Wales and Scotland finally get found out
    Unlikely. Welsh Labour and the SNP are immovable objects, with vast client votes and fragmented and pitifully low calibre opposition.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    No Cabinet minister except Gove is going to lockdown now:





    Why is Gove so lockdown mad?
    He's a massive authoritarian so having that power over people's lives appeals to his nature. Pretty sure if he could tell people at what times of day they were allowed to take a shit he would try.
    But everything I know of Gove tells me he is not a "massive authoritarian". And I hear a lot of goss about Gove. One of my best and oldest friends is very close to his (ex) wife.

    He's obviously got many faults - and virtues - but he's not the Gestapo type. Of all the Cabinet he would have been one of my last picks for a lockdown-maniac, against the data.

    Quite, quite odd. A secret new girlfriend maybe? We've seen what it did to Boris. Powerful middle aged men easily get burned and churned by pretty young ladies
    You had me until "pretty." I mean, I'm not that poster with the James Bond name who has slept with more beautiful women than most people have drawn breaths, but I look at photos of Jennifer and Carrie and completely irrelevant violinists and I think, Really?
    aha

    Yes, I have to agree with you there. Boris is clearly a quantity not quality guy. For a supposed Premiership swordsman, he keeps zorro-ing some, errrr, decidedly 4th Division Leylands DIY Sponsored talent


    Trump, despite his supposed flaws, kept it high and stylish. A succession of serious beauties. Melania!

    But I fear we err towards boorish misogyny, so it's best we go back to Our Divided Covid Cabinet
    I mean Trump has hundreds of millions in potential divorce settlement to attract them in. And while many of his conquests were attractive, they all seem to be pretty empty upstairs. Is there anyone more brain dead than Melania? She seems utterly without a personality.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274
    TOPPING said:

    As for test recording when I tested positive I did, say, ten LFTs of which five were positive. If I had recorded them all then surely the positive test results would have been increased fivefold.

    So surely it is only PCRs that are registered. Although that makes me wonder what about those who take multiple PCRs...

    You have to put in you NHS number. So long as they count positive *cases*, where a case is a person, no problem.
  • Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    No Cabinet minister except Gove is going to lockdown now:





    Why is Gove so lockdown mad?
    He's a massive authoritarian so having that power over people's lives appeals to his nature. Pretty sure if he could tell people at what times of day they were allowed to take a shit he would try.
    But everything I know of Gove tells me he is not a "massive authoritarian". And I hear a lot of goss about Gove. One of my best and oldest friends is very close to his (ex) wife.

    He's obviously got many faults - and virtues - but he's not the Gestapo type. Of all the Cabinet he would have been one of my last picks for a lockdown-maniac, against the data.

    Quite, quite odd. A secret new girlfriend maybe? We've seen what it did to Boris. Powerful middle aged men easily get burned and churned by pretty young ladies

    The other interesting rumour (which I'm not going to try to track now) is that Nadine Dorries was also keen on further restrictions. She's bonkers in terms of culture wars, but again- she gets healthcare.

    To repeat- I really don't want any post-Christmas social restrictions. Especially since that's when I'm doing all the flitting around family. But when the people who I semi-trust to not be idiots are the ones saying "hey, this might be a bit flaky" and the ones I don't trust are celebrating a great victory... I hope they're right, but I wonder.

    And saying "X is a power mad authoritarian" just when they disagree with what you want is just lazy.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    When did Starmer call for another lockdown

    He hasn't in this wave has he?
    The story is mixed: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/22/labour-accused-flip-flopping-covid-restrictions/
    Brief look at the imperial paper - seems delta is getting crushed by omicron. That’s seriously good news.
    Do you have a link?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,240
    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    So, about that lockdown on the 28th?

    Well if you live in Wales....
    The RNLI have cancelled their traditional boxing day dip

    And for the first time I have seen him referred to as Drakefool

    On mandating working from home he said it was the same as the previous regulations which they did not prosecute a single case, but it is there so employees can report their employer if they insist on coming into the office

    Corbyn style left wing control
    Owen Jones (for it was he) did a surprisingly insightful, thoughtful column in the Guardian today, about the way the nation is slowly turning against lockdown. He's on the money

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/22/omicron-covid-restrictions-young-people

    The credulous, slavish social democrat yearning for more restrictions - more, more! lock us down more! - will soon become self defeating and then electorally toxic. The people have had enough, they know this all costs money and sanity, absent a scary new Black Death variant we are on the brink of saying Fuck off, Let's live

    Starmer is in a rather tricky position. He has publicly and recently yelled for more lockdown. What if the science suddenly says he is wrong? There is danger here for the New Authoritarian Left
    Demonization of people who believe in a different trade-off between life and leisure activity is part of the problem, whichever way it goes. Only extremists have a view of always being for lockdown or always be against. Most of us are in an area of the grey in between, and support or oppose lockdown depending on the severity of the variant, the transmissibility and the level of vaccine escape. I am sure Starmer is one of those people.
    Hmmm


    I get the impression - and, fair enough, perhaps it is false - that Labour has consistently been in favour of harder lockdown, and earlier, and hang the expense, as compared to the Tories. Labour has seen how this plays well for Sturgeon (and perhaps Drakeford) and they have copied. And of course if you don't have to worry about the cost of this 9th lockdown-and-furlough, what's the problem?

    Well, here is the problem, now emerging. The voters are turning against restrictions. We are done. Let us be free. More thoughtful voters are also worrying about the debt we are running up. We all sense that this cannot go on

    Labour need a new post-lockdown narrative, or they will get caught in a bad space
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for test recording when I tested positive I did, say, ten LFTs of which five were positive. If I had recorded them all then surely the positive test results would have been increased fivefold.

    So surely it is only PCRs that are registered. Although that makes me wonder what about those who take multiple PCRs...

    No, only 1 positive test per person is in the figures. It seems that way even if months apart and reinfection.

    Incidentally, a lot of the data entry is backdated. By date of test we had 103 000 positives on the 15th Dec.

    Thanks. And yes I heard the 103,000 figure for the 15th they had it on PM I think.
  • Almost every front page now leading on omi being less severe.

    Johnson would be mad to now start talking about lockdown from 28th or 3rd Jan.

  • BBC News - Pillar of Shame: Hong Kong's Tiananmen Square statue removed
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-59764029
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Leon said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    So, about that lockdown on the 28th?

    Well if you live in Wales....
    The RNLI have cancelled their traditional boxing day dip

    And for the first time I have seen him referred to as Drakefool

    On mandating working from home he said it was the same as the previous regulations which they did not prosecute a single case, but it is there so employees can report their employer if they insist on coming into the office

    Corbyn style left wing control
    Owen Jones (for it was he) did a surprisingly insightful, thoughtful column in the Guardian today, about the way the nation is slowly turning against lockdown. He's on the money

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/22/omicron-covid-restrictions-young-people

    The credulous, slavish social democrat yearning for more restrictions - more, more! lock us down more! - will soon become self defeating and then electorally toxic. The people have had enough, they know this all costs money and sanity, absent a scary new Black Death variant we are on the brink of saying Fuck off, Let's live

    Starmer is in a rather tricky position. He has publicly and recently yelled for more lockdown. What if the science suddenly says he is wrong? There is danger here for the New Authoritarian Left
    Demonization of people who believe in a different trade-off between life and leisure activity is part of the problem, whichever way it goes. Only extremists have a view of always being for lockdown or always be against. Most of us are in an area of the grey in between, and support or oppose lockdown depending on the severity of the variant, the transmissibility and the level of vaccine escape. I am sure Starmer is one of those people.
    Hmmm


    I get the impression - and, fair enough, perhaps it is false - that Labour has consistently been in favour of harder lockdown, and earlier, and hang the expense, as compared to the Tories. Labour has seen how this plays well for Sturgeon (and perhaps Drakeford) and they have copied. And of course if you don't have to worry about the cost of this 9th lockdown-and-furlough, what's the problem?

    Well, here is the problem, now emerging. The voters are turning against restrictions. We are done. Let us be free. More thoughtful voters are also worrying about the debt we are running up. We all sense that this cannot go on

    Labour need a new post-lockdown narrative, or they will get caught in a bad space
    Nah, Labour will be fine as long as Boris is in place. He's completely discredited with voters. I could see the Tories collapsing to under 300 seats if with Boris as PM.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2021

    Almost every front page now leading on omi being less severe.

    Johnson would be mad to now start talking about lockdown from 28th or 3rd Jan.

    We know what he will be doing then ;-)

    It actually seems like Boris himself has been put into lockdown.
  • Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    2h
    Replying to
    @andrew_lilico
    I'm sure that if I spent all day looking at the Imperial study I could work out what it's saying. But I'm too lazy. I want it to have a Summary that says the only two things that matter (intrinsic severity; unadjusted severity) in a form I can understand in five minutes.

    And this is not a small point. Because that table is all that Cabinet ministers should or will care about. Drowning those four key numbers somewhere in tables with 30 rows each, such that ministers have no idea what was said, is a failure to deliver what really counts.


    ====

    Maybe I am becoming even more cynical, but is this deliberate?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,061

    TOPPING said:

    As for test recording when I tested positive I did, say, ten LFTs of which five were positive. If I had recorded them all then surely the positive test results would have been increased fivefold.

    So surely it is only PCRs that are registered. Although that makes me wonder what about those who take multiple PCRs...

    You have to put in you NHS number. So long as they count positive *cases*, where a case is a person, no problem.
    The NHS number is not required when submitting an LFT result.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited December 2021
    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    So, about that lockdown on the 28th?

    Well if you live in Wales....
    The RNLI have cancelled their traditional boxing day dip

    And for the first time I have seen him referred to as Drakefool

    On mandating working from home he said it was the same as the previous regulations which they did not prosecute a single case, but it is there so employees can report their employer if they insist on coming into the office

    Corbyn style left wing control
    Owen Jones (for it was he) did a surprisingly insightful, thoughtful column in the Guardian today, about the way the nation is slowly turning against lockdown. He's on the money

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/22/omicron-covid-restrictions-young-people

    The credulous, slavish social democrat yearning for more restrictions - more, more! lock us down more! - will soon become self defeating and then electorally toxic. The people have had enough, they know this all costs money and sanity, absent a scary new Black Death variant we are on the brink of saying Fuck off, Let's live

    Starmer is in a rather tricky position. He has publicly and recently yelled for more lockdown. What if the science suddenly says he is wrong? There is danger here for the New Authoritarian Left
    Nobody holds oppositions to such calls if they are found to be wrong and the narrative moves on.
    Correct. The Conservative Party backed Blair's invasion of Iraq, but nobody remembers that now.
    Well it was almost 20 years ago.
    Unless you are under 30, not remembering things almost 20 years ago is not something to celebrate

    It was such an easy win for the Conservatives. If they had only said Yes we are as warlike as the next man but we also do due process, so we're not backing you till Blix has finally reported...

    And that's not hindsight, that's what I - a tory at the time - was saying at the time. Hard to rank IDS and BJ in terms of despicability.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    Can anyone advise me on travelling tomorrow. My dad is convinced there will be trouble with the trains due to staff being off with covid.

    Just done Wigan to Carlisle to nearly Newcastle today.
    There were a number of cancellations due to staff shortages. I'd estimate about 1 in 5.
    However, capacity was able to cope as the ones running weren't full.
    My three connections went swimmingly.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878

    Can anyone advise me on travelling tomorrow. My dad is convinced there will be trouble with the trains due to staff being off with covid.

    I’d check in advance as there will be changes. They have reduced services to hopefully avoid issues, so check in advance. But should be fine.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    So I finally got my 17:50 vaccine appointment at 19:45 after two hours standing in the freezing cold. Good job it was us young ones getting vaxxed and not the elderly. Some people had their kids with them. Can't help but feel those reluctant to get vaxxed are unlikely to be encouraged by that to change their mind.

    Good on you, and everybody in the Queue for persevering, :)

  • Leon said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    So, about that lockdown on the 28th?

    Well if you live in Wales....
    The RNLI have cancelled their traditional boxing day dip

    And for the first time I have seen him referred to as Drakefool

    On mandating working from home he said it was the same as the previous regulations which they did not prosecute a single case, but it is there so employees can report their employer if they insist on coming into the office

    Corbyn style left wing control
    Owen Jones (for it was he) did a surprisingly insightful, thoughtful column in the Guardian today, about the way the nation is slowly turning against lockdown. He's on the money

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/22/omicron-covid-restrictions-young-people

    The credulous, slavish social democrat yearning for more restrictions - more, more! lock us down more! - will soon become self defeating and then electorally toxic. The people have had enough, they know this all costs money and sanity, absent a scary new Black Death variant we are on the brink of saying Fuck off, Let's live

    Starmer is in a rather tricky position. He has publicly and recently yelled for more lockdown. What if the science suddenly says he is wrong? There is danger here for the New Authoritarian Left
    Demonization of people who believe in a different trade-off between life and leisure activity is part of the problem, whichever way it goes. Only extremists have a view of always being for lockdown or always be against. Most of us are in an area of the grey in between, and support or oppose lockdown depending on the severity of the variant, the transmissibility and the level of vaccine escape. I am sure Starmer is one of those people.
    Hmmm


    I get the impression - and, fair enough, perhaps it is false - that Labour has consistently been in favour of harder lockdown, and earlier, and hang the expense, as compared to the Tories. Labour has seen how this plays well for Sturgeon (and perhaps Drakeford) and they have copied. And of course if you don't have to worry about the cost of this 9th lockdown-and-furlough, what's the problem?

    Well, here is the problem, now emerging. The voters are turning against restrictions. We are done. Let us be free. More thoughtful voters are also worrying about the debt we are running up. We all sense that this cannot go on

    Labour need a new post-lockdown narrative, or they will get caught in a bad space
    The thing is that Starmer has just been a vacuous empty shell. Captain Hindsight come to life.

    He hasn't called for lockdown this wave because he hasn't called for anything this wave. He's an entirely empty suit. He even voted for Plan B without proposing that there would need to be more support for Hospitality or anything else. 🤦‍♂️

    Being an empty shell may be fine if the PM is shooting himself in his foot, but if things start to look better in the next few weeks and months then its not really a solid foundation that Labour have built up here.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    As for test recording when I tested positive I did, say, ten LFTs of which five were positive. If I had recorded them all then surely the positive test results would have been increased fivefold.

    So surely it is only PCRs that are registered. Although that makes me wonder what about those who take multiple PCRs...

    You have to put in you NHS number. So long as they count positive *cases*, where a case is a person, no problem.
    Thanks.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878
    RobD said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    When did Starmer call for another lockdown

    He hasn't in this wave has he?
    The story is mixed: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/22/labour-accused-flip-flopping-covid-restrictions/
    Brief look at the imperial paper - seems delta is getting crushed by omicron. That’s seriously good news.
    Do you have a link?
    Not good at linking but I found the imperial paper via twitter/John Burn-Murdoch. My interpretation of the data for cases.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    I have to say the FT article doesn't quite fill me with joy -

    Omicron reduces an individual's hospitalisation risk by 11%.

    Omicron, because it infects more immune people, reduces overall hospitalisation risk by 25%.

    (not sure which source paper, but is that relative to Delta or relative to a basket of previous COVID?)

    If relative to Delta, my question would then be. Is that all?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    2h
    Replying to
    @andrew_lilico
    I'm sure that if I spent all day looking at the Imperial study I could work out what it's saying. But I'm too lazy. I want it to have a Summary that says the only two things that matter (intrinsic severity; unadjusted severity) in a form I can understand in five minutes.

    And this is not a small point. Because that table is all that Cabinet ministers should or will care about. Drowning those four key numbers somewhere in tables with 30 rows each, such that ministers have no idea what was said, is a failure to deliver what really counts.


    ====

    Maybe I am becoming even more cynical, but is this deliberate?

    Tbf, the Edinburgh paper will get a lot more play, simply because it's easy to read and understand. They both basically say the same thing too aiui, a 60-70% reduction in overnight hospitalisations. The Imperial one just says it in a slightly weird way.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    2h
    Replying to
    @andrew_lilico
    I'm sure that if I spent all day looking at the Imperial study I could work out what it's saying. But I'm too lazy. I want it to have a Summary that says the only two things that matter (intrinsic severity; unadjusted severity) in a form I can understand in five minutes.

    And this is not a small point. Because that table is all that Cabinet ministers should or will care about. Drowning those four key numbers somewhere in tables with 30 rows each, such that ministers have no idea what was said, is a failure to deliver what really counts.


    ====

    Maybe I am becoming even more cynical, but is this deliberate?

    Again PM (Go Evan!) had it clearly.

    Scottish study: two thirds reduction in severity (and/or hospitalisations); Imperial study: 40-45% reduction.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for test recording when I tested positive I did, say, ten LFTs of which five were positive. If I had recorded them all then surely the positive test results would have been increased fivefold.

    So surely it is only PCRs that are registered. Although that makes me wonder what about those who take multiple PCRs...

    You have to put in you NHS number. So long as they count positive *cases*, where a case is a person, no problem.
    The NHS number is not required when submitting an LFT result.
    Oh, I thought you did. How come my results show up on my NHS App?
  • Almost every front page now leading on omi being less severe.

    Johnson would be mad to now start talking about lockdown from 28th or 3rd Jan.

    I said last night I suspected the decision was already all-but-made not to lockdown because of the lifting of self-isolation from day 7. If you were looking to increase restrictions, then reducing the time the infected are isolated seems a strange way to start - but if you know things are going to be fine, then that's a good way to ease the isolation problem.

    Its a question of when to lift Plan B and when to abolish isolation altogether, as opposed to what restrictions to add now.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    2h
    Replying to
    @andrew_lilico
    I'm sure that if I spent all day looking at the Imperial study I could work out what it's saying. But I'm too lazy. I want it to have a Summary that says the only two things that matter (intrinsic severity; unadjusted severity) in a form I can understand in five minutes.

    And this is not a small point. Because that table is all that Cabinet ministers should or will care about. Drowning those four key numbers somewhere in tables with 30 rows each, such that ministers have no idea what was said, is a failure to deliver what really counts.


    ====

    Maybe I am becoming even more cynical, but is this deliberate?

    No, it’s just the way papers in this field tend to be. Picking effects out of the data is actually quite tricky. Population sampling is as far away from ‘ideal’ science experimentation as possible.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for test recording when I tested positive I did, say, ten LFTs of which five were positive. If I had recorded them all then surely the positive test results would have been increased fivefold.

    So surely it is only PCRs that are registered. Although that makes me wonder what about those who take multiple PCRs...

    You have to put in you NHS number. So long as they count positive *cases*, where a case is a person, no problem.
    Thanks.
    Though check @Foxy's comments too as he thinks I may have that wrong and tbh he's in a much better position than me to know.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,240
    Pro_Rata said:

    I have to say the FT article doesn't quite fill me with joy -

    Omicron reduces an individual's hospitalisation risk by 11%.

    Omicron, because it infects more immune people, reduces overall hospitalisation risk by 25%.

    (not sure which source paper, but is that relative to Delta or relative to a basket of previous COVID?)

    If relative to Delta, my question would then be. Is that all?

    Man, you need to read everything


    There are at least FIVE relevant studies out just today

    Imperial is maybe the most cautious, seeing a hospitalisation lowering of 10-45%, with various caveats (but it accepts the lowering of severe disease and death might be much more)

    Denmark, also out. Roughly similar, but they too are playing it down, "too early to say"

    The leaked UKHSA report. All we know is that it says "Omicron is less severe", but this candour is unusual from them

    Scotland. 60-70% lowering of hospitalisation

    South Africa: 80% lowering of hospitalisation

    Take them all together. This is two big spoonfuls of sugar in a previously bitter cup of tea



  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,158
    I don’t think Starmer is reflexively in favour of Lockdown, but some others in Labour may well be. I remember him surprising everyone last year by demanding that Schools should open and remain so, when a lot of the left and teaching unions were still resisting any opening up.

    Actually I’m not sure it’s “the left” per se. It’s the authoritarian statists, some of whom are left left but which include a lot of Blairites and social democrats including, frustratingly, a few in the Lib Dems. And there are some on patrician and nationalist right too.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 443
    glw said:

    ydoethur said:

    'Very little time if you bother to set up an account!' Have you actually done it? Pointless repetition of data every time that can and should have been saved, including name and date of birth, when all it should have is date of test, serial number and result.

    It's an appalling piece of work and it's an utter waste of time anyway. Positive tests are the ones that actually matter.

    If you set up an account it saves all your answers, so you only have to click through a few pages, answering a few questions that have radio buttons, and then put in the test number or scan the QR code. It doesn't take any more than 60 seconds to do.
    Unless it's changed in the last week, I had to enter all my info again for my second negative test 2 days after the previous one, despite an account. Totalling (I think) 16 separate presses of ENTER. Each page took 5-10 seconds to load. Usually for a single data item.

    Terrible design. I keep examples of bad design for future reference and this is one of them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    Can we not commission a copy of this across from the Chinese embassy ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-59764029
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,158
    MaxPB said:

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    2h
    Replying to
    @andrew_lilico
    I'm sure that if I spent all day looking at the Imperial study I could work out what it's saying. But I'm too lazy. I want it to have a Summary that says the only two things that matter (intrinsic severity; unadjusted severity) in a form I can understand in five minutes.

    And this is not a small point. Because that table is all that Cabinet ministers should or will care about. Drowning those four key numbers somewhere in tables with 30 rows each, such that ministers have no idea what was said, is a failure to deliver what really counts.


    ====

    Maybe I am becoming even more cynical, but is this deliberate?

    Tbf, the Edinburgh paper will get a lot more play, simply because it's easy to read and understand. They both basically say the same thing too aiui, a 60-70% reduction in overnight hospitalisations. The Imperial one just says it in a slightly weird way.
    Reminds me of the dead simple Pfizer trials results vs the confusing AZ ones. Science communication.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,061
    Pro_Rata said:

    I have to say the FT article doesn't quite fill me with joy -

    Omicron reduces an individual's hospitalisation risk by 11%.

    Omicron, because it infects more immune people, reduces overall hospitalisation risk by 25%.

    (not sure which source paper, but is that relative to Delta or relative to a basket of previous COVID?)

    If relative to Delta, my question would then be. Is that all?

    Hmm, yes.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/19065fba-025c-43fd-bd76-37234af97953

    "Separately, Danish data showed that among people who tested positive between November 22 and December 15, Omicron cases were three times less likely to be admitted to hospital than cases with other variants. But experts warned that the concentration of Omicron outbreaks among younger groups could skew the data.

    (Chart showing that so far, Omicron cases in Denmark skew younger than cases from other variants)

    “It is primarily young and vaccinated people who are infected with Omicron, and when we adjust for this, we see no evidence that Omicron should result in milder disease,” said Henrik Ullum, director of the Statens Serum Institut, Denmark’s public health agency, in a press conference on Wednesday."

    Does anyone know if the Scottish study was similarly age corrected?
  • PJH said:

    glw said:

    ydoethur said:

    'Very little time if you bother to set up an account!' Have you actually done it? Pointless repetition of data every time that can and should have been saved, including name and date of birth, when all it should have is date of test, serial number and result.

    It's an appalling piece of work and it's an utter waste of time anyway. Positive tests are the ones that actually matter.

    If you set up an account it saves all your answers, so you only have to click through a few pages, answering a few questions that have radio buttons, and then put in the test number or scan the QR code. It doesn't take any more than 60 seconds to do.
    Unless it's changed in the last week, I had to enter all my info again for my second negative test 2 days after the previous one, despite an account. Totalling (I think) 16 separate presses of ENTER. Each page took 5-10 seconds to load. Usually for a single data item.

    Terrible design. I keep examples of bad design for future reference and this is one of them.
    "Positive tests are the ones that actually matter."

    Nope. Stats people need the % of + vs the total of tests.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    MaxPB said:

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    2h
    Replying to
    @andrew_lilico
    I'm sure that if I spent all day looking at the Imperial study I could work out what it's saying. But I'm too lazy. I want it to have a Summary that says the only two things that matter (intrinsic severity; unadjusted severity) in a form I can understand in five minutes.

    And this is not a small point. Because that table is all that Cabinet ministers should or will care about. Drowning those four key numbers somewhere in tables with 30 rows each, such that ministers have no idea what was said, is a failure to deliver what really counts.


    ====

    Maybe I am becoming even more cynical, but is this deliberate?

    Tbf, the Edinburgh paper will get a lot more play, simply because it's easy to read and understand. They both basically say the same thing too aiui, a 60-70% reduction in overnight hospitalisations. The Imperial one just says it in a slightly weird way.
    On the radio discussing it they said the Imperial study wasn't as "good" as the Scottish one. IIRC reduction of 40-50% (Imperial) vs two thirds (Scottish) for Omicron vs Delta.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,240
    edited December 2021
    Nigelb said:

    Can we not commission a copy of this across from the Chinese embassy ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-59764029

    One day I hope that Xi Jinping pays for this evil. I guess the CCP would point at America or Britain or the EU and say look, democracy sucks, this is better, but it is not. Democracy is having a bad time, but it is better than Beijing
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Leon said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    I have to say the FT article doesn't quite fill me with joy -

    Omicron reduces an individual's hospitalisation risk by 11%.

    Omicron, because it infects more immune people, reduces overall hospitalisation risk by 25%.

    (not sure which source paper, but is that relative to Delta or relative to a basket of previous COVID?)

    If relative to Delta, my question would then be. Is that all?

    Man, you need to read everything


    There are at least FIVE relevant studies out just today

    Imperial is maybe the most cautious, seeing a hospitalisation lowering of 10-45%, with various caveats (but it accepts the lowering of severe disease and death might be much more)

    Denmark, also out. Roughly similar, but they too are playing it down, "too early to say"

    The leaked UKHSA report. All we know is that it says "Omicron is less severe", but this candour is unusual from them

    Scotland. 60-70% lowering of hospitalisation

    South Africa: 80% lowering of hospitalisation

    Take them all together. This is two big spoonfuls of sugar in a previously bitter cup of tea



    Or, to push the metaphor, 5 spoons all with sugar on, 2 of them heaped with loads of sugar on!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    IshmaelZ said:

    Almost every front page now leading on omi being less severe.

    Johnson would be mad to now start talking about lockdown from 28th or 3rd Jan.

    I said last night I suspected the decision was already all-but-made not to lockdown because of the lifting of self-isolation from day 7. If you were looking to increase restrictions, then reducing the time the infected are isolated seems a strange way to start - but if you know things are going to be fine, then that's a good way to ease the isolation problem.

    Its a question of when to lift Plan B and when to abolish isolation altogether, as opposed to what restrictions to add now.
    You didn't exist last night
    LOL.

    I'm not trying to hide my continuity, I'm not pretending like a certain someone that I'm not who I am.

    I just don't want my real name associated which I think is a reasonable request. I am looking at a possible new job next year and I don't want to be doxxed.
    Perfectly sensible. My username is not my real name either.
  • Philip is really not happy that Labour is 9 points ahead
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,061
    PJH said:

    glw said:

    ydoethur said:

    'Very little time if you bother to set up an account!' Have you actually done it? Pointless repetition of data every time that can and should have been saved, including name and date of birth, when all it should have is date of test, serial number and result.

    It's an appalling piece of work and it's an utter waste of time anyway. Positive tests are the ones that actually matter.

    If you set up an account it saves all your answers, so you only have to click through a few pages, answering a few questions that have radio buttons, and then put in the test number or scan the QR code. It doesn't take any more than 60 seconds to do.
    Unless it's changed in the last week, I had to enter all my info again for my second negative test 2 days after the previous one, despite an account. Totalling (I think) 16 separate presses of ENTER. Each page took 5-10 seconds to load. Usually for a single data item.

    Terrible design. I keep examples of bad design for future reference and this is one of them.
    It keeps all my data. It may depend on cookie settings etc perhaps.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,158
    PJH said:

    glw said:

    ydoethur said:

    'Very little time if you bother to set up an account!' Have you actually done it? Pointless repetition of data every time that can and should have been saved, including name and date of birth, when all it should have is date of test, serial number and result.

    It's an appalling piece of work and it's an utter waste of time anyway. Positive tests are the ones that actually matter.

    If you set up an account it saves all your answers, so you only have to click through a few pages, answering a few questions that have radio buttons, and then put in the test number or scan the QR code. It doesn't take any more than 60 seconds to do.
    Unless it's changed in the last week, I had to enter all my info again for my second negative test 2 days after the previous one, despite an account. Totalling (I think) 16 separate presses of ENTER. Each page took 5-10 seconds to load. Usually for a single data item.

    Terrible design. I keep examples of bad design for future reference and this is one of them.
    Mine was way simpler than that, and I didn’t even need to give my NHS number (it’s an option). And it all shows up in my NHS app records straight away. Maybe a difference between being registered and signed in vs entering details as a one-off?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    Leon said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    I have to say the FT article doesn't quite fill me with joy -

    Omicron reduces an individual's hospitalisation risk by 11%.

    Omicron, because it infects more immune people, reduces overall hospitalisation risk by 25%.

    (not sure which source paper, but is that relative to Delta or relative to a basket of previous COVID?)

    If relative to Delta, my question would then be. Is that all?

    Man, you need to read everything


    There are at least FIVE relevant studies out just today

    Imperial is maybe the most cautious, seeing a hospitalisation lowering of 10-45%, with various caveats (but it accepts the lowering of severe disease and death might be much more)

    Denmark, also out. Roughly similar, but they too are playing it down, "too early to say"

    The leaked UKHSA report. All we know is that it says "Omicron is less severe", but this candour is unusual from them

    Scotland. 60-70% lowering of hospitalisation

    South Africa: 80% lowering of hospitalisation

    Take them all together. This is two big spoonfuls of sugar in a previously bitter cup of tea



    Am off to bed just having read the newspaper filtered numbers.

    Would normally read on a bit, but the last day of work is an early start and big talk stuff this go, so will settle to them with a tea and biscuit tomorrow afternoon if all goes well.
  • Christopher Snowdon
    @cjsnowdon
    ·
    3h
    New study from Imperial finds significant reduction in risk of hospitalisation from Omicron, almost as if those doctors in South Africa weren’t lying after all.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Almost every front page now leading on omi being less severe.

    Johnson would be mad to now start talking about lockdown from 28th or 3rd Jan.

    I said last night I suspected the decision was already all-but-made not to lockdown because of the lifting of self-isolation from day 7. If you were looking to increase restrictions, then reducing the time the infected are isolated seems a strange way to start - but if you know things are going to be fine, then that's a good way to ease the isolation problem.

    Its a question of when to lift Plan B and when to abolish isolation altogether, as opposed to what restrictions to add now.
    You didn't exist last night
    LOL.

    I'm not trying to hide my continuity, I'm not pretending like a certain someone that I'm not who I am.

    I just don't want my real name associated which I think is a reasonable request. I am looking at a possible new job next year and I don't want to be doxxed.
    Sure, OK, no more. Who is this Thompson guy anyway?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,240
    Pro_Rata said:

    Leon said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    I have to say the FT article doesn't quite fill me with joy -

    Omicron reduces an individual's hospitalisation risk by 11%.

    Omicron, because it infects more immune people, reduces overall hospitalisation risk by 25%.

    (not sure which source paper, but is that relative to Delta or relative to a basket of previous COVID?)

    If relative to Delta, my question would then be. Is that all?

    Man, you need to read everything


    There are at least FIVE relevant studies out just today

    Imperial is maybe the most cautious, seeing a hospitalisation lowering of 10-45%, with various caveats (but it accepts the lowering of severe disease and death might be much more)

    Denmark, also out. Roughly similar, but they too are playing it down, "too early to say"

    The leaked UKHSA report. All we know is that it says "Omicron is less severe", but this candour is unusual from them

    Scotland. 60-70% lowering of hospitalisation

    South Africa: 80% lowering of hospitalisation

    Take them all together. This is two big spoonfuls of sugar in a previously bitter cup of tea



    Am off to bed just having read the newspaper filtered numbers.

    Would normally read on a bit, but the last day of work is an early start and big talk stuff this go, so will settle to them with a tea and biscuit tomorrow afternoon if all goes well.
    Enjoy. Sleep well. But this is definitely good news, so be of good cheer
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,061
    TimS said:

    PJH said:

    glw said:

    ydoethur said:

    'Very little time if you bother to set up an account!' Have you actually done it? Pointless repetition of data every time that can and should have been saved, including name and date of birth, when all it should have is date of test, serial number and result.

    It's an appalling piece of work and it's an utter waste of time anyway. Positive tests are the ones that actually matter.

    If you set up an account it saves all your answers, so you only have to click through a few pages, answering a few questions that have radio buttons, and then put in the test number or scan the QR code. It doesn't take any more than 60 seconds to do.
    Unless it's changed in the last week, I had to enter all my info again for my second negative test 2 days after the previous one, despite an account. Totalling (I think) 16 separate presses of ENTER. Each page took 5-10 seconds to load. Usually for a single data item.

    Terrible design. I keep examples of bad design for future reference and this is one of them.
    Mine was way simpler than that, and I didn’t even need to give my NHS number (it’s an option). And it all shows up in my NHS app records straight away. Maybe a difference between being registered and signed in vs entering details as a one-off?
    Mine has Mrs Foxys details too, so I can enter her results. When I login it asks who I am reporting for, and both of us are there with all demographics, just need to scan the QR code on the test and enter the result.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 443

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for test recording when I tested positive I did, say, ten LFTs of which five were positive. If I had recorded them all then surely the positive test results would have been increased fivefold.

    So surely it is only PCRs that are registered. Although that makes me wonder what about those who take multiple PCRs...

    You have to put in you NHS number. So long as they count positive *cases*, where a case is a person, no problem.
    The NHS number is not required when submitting an LFT result.
    Oh, I thought you did. How come my results show up on my NHS App?
    It does ask for it though
    Foxy said:

    PJH said:

    glw said:

    ydoethur said:

    'Very little time if you bother to set up an account!' Have you actually done it? Pointless repetition of data every time that can and should have been saved, including name and date of birth, when all it should have is date of test, serial number and result.

    It's an appalling piece of work and it's an utter waste of time anyway. Positive tests are the ones that actually matter.

    If you set up an account it saves all your answers, so you only have to click through a few pages, answering a few questions that have radio buttons, and then put in the test number or scan the QR code. It doesn't take any more than 60 seconds to do.
    Unless it's changed in the last week, I had to enter all my info again for my second negative test 2 days after the previous one, despite an account. Totalling (I think) 16 separate presses of ENTER. Each page took 5-10 seconds to load. Usually for a single data item.

    Terrible design. I keep examples of bad design for future reference and this is one of them.
    It keeps all my data. It may depend on cookie settings etc perhaps.
    Hmm, I'll have a look. But I'm essentially lazy and always accept the default so it's surprising it doesn't work that way by default. Might be something weird about my phone settings perhaps.
  • Philip is really not happy that Labour is 9 points ahead

    No - he is not happy with authoritarian restrictions especially when the evidence does not support them

    Poll ratings near 3 years out are not a consideration
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    The number of covid admissions in London has gone above 300 but ventilation numbers have gone down slightly again. No real talk about hospital pressure after a month of omicron cases. The biggest problem seems to covering for all the staff who are having to isolate.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    I have to say the FT article doesn't quite fill me with joy -

    Omicron reduces an individual's hospitalisation risk by 11%.

    Omicron, because it infects more immune people, reduces overall hospitalisation risk by 25%.

    (not sure which source paper, but is that relative to Delta or relative to a basket of previous COVID?)

    If relative to Delta, my question would then be. Is that all?

    Man, you need to read everything


    There are at least FIVE relevant studies out just today

    Imperial is maybe the most cautious, seeing a hospitalisation lowering of 10-45%, with various caveats (but it accepts the lowering of severe disease and death might be much more)

    Denmark, also out. Roughly similar, but they too are playing it down, "too early to say"

    The leaked UKHSA report. All we know is that it says "Omicron is less severe", but this candour is unusual from them

    Scotland. 60-70% lowering of hospitalisation

    South Africa: 80% lowering of hospitalisation

    Take them all together. This is two big spoonfuls of sugar in a previously bitter cup of tea
    Fingers-crossed. Still suspect we'll have a wobbly few weeks in January though... Christmas family socialising, kids back at school, workers back in the office/factory/etc.

    Going to get colder too - not sure if that helps or hinders.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Almost every front page now leading on omi being less severe.

    Johnson would be mad to now start talking about lockdown from 28th or 3rd Jan.

    I said last night I suspected the decision was already all-but-made not to lockdown because of the lifting of self-isolation from day 7. If you were looking to increase restrictions, then reducing the time the infected are isolated seems a strange way to start - but if you know things are going to be fine, then that's a good way to ease the isolation problem.

    Its a question of when to lift Plan B and when to abolish isolation altogether, as opposed to what restrictions to add now.
    You didn't exist last night
    LOL.

    I'm not trying to hide my continuity, I'm not pretending like a certain someone that I'm not who I am.

    I just don't want my real name associated which I think is a reasonable request. I am looking at a possible new job next year and I don't want to be doxxed.
    Perfectly sensible. My username is not my real name either.
    You astonish me.

    I post under my own name and use a standard passport photograph of myself as my avatar. I have no time at all for pseudonymous cowards who do anything else.
  • Philip is really not happy that Labour is 9 points ahead

    No - he is not happy with authoritarian restrictions especially when the evidence does not support them

    Poll ratings near 3 years out are not a consideration
    They are when the Tories are ahead, strange that
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Nigelb said:

    Can we not commission a copy of this across from the Chinese embassy ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-59764029

    I would suggest we open the Taiwanese embassy opposite the Chines embassy and the statues in the midal, But I was never very good at diplomacy.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,178
    I've just read the Fraser Nelson thing.

    Christ.

    The nature of it reminds me of conversations I've had with a few IT wonks in the past. Theres no nuance or kind of critical thought out of them at all.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274
    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Almost every front page now leading on omi being less severe.

    Johnson would be mad to now start talking about lockdown from 28th or 3rd Jan.

    I said last night I suspected the decision was already all-but-made not to lockdown because of the lifting of self-isolation from day 7. If you were looking to increase restrictions, then reducing the time the infected are isolated seems a strange way to start - but if you know things are going to be fine, then that's a good way to ease the isolation problem.

    Its a question of when to lift Plan B and when to abolish isolation altogether, as opposed to what restrictions to add now.
    You didn't exist last night
    LOL.

    I'm not trying to hide my continuity, I'm not pretending like a certain someone that I'm not who I am.

    I just don't want my real name associated which I think is a reasonable request. I am looking at a possible new job next year and I don't want to be doxxed.
    Perfectly sensible. My username is not my real name either.
    You astonish me.

    I post under my own name and use a standard passport photograph of myself as my avatar. I have no time at all for pseudonymous cowards who do anything else.
    Fair enough. But when you're a public figure like me you have to use a degree of disguise.

    Hence the dark glasses.
  • Philip is really not happy that Labour is 9 points ahead

    No - he is not happy with authoritarian restrictions especially when the evidence does not support them

    Poll ratings near 3 years out are not a consideration
    They are when the Tories are ahead, strange that
    If you really follow my posts you will have noticed just how many times I said the same to @HYUFD when the conservatives were ahead
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,178

    Leon said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    I have to say the FT article doesn't quite fill me with joy -

    Omicron reduces an individual's hospitalisation risk by 11%.

    Omicron, because it infects more immune people, reduces overall hospitalisation risk by 25%.

    (not sure which source paper, but is that relative to Delta or relative to a basket of previous COVID?)

    If relative to Delta, my question would then be. Is that all?

    Man, you need to read everything


    There are at least FIVE relevant studies out just today

    Imperial is maybe the most cautious, seeing a hospitalisation lowering of 10-45%, with various caveats (but it accepts the lowering of severe disease and death might be much more)

    Denmark, also out. Roughly similar, but they too are playing it down, "too early to say"

    The leaked UKHSA report. All we know is that it says "Omicron is less severe", but this candour is unusual from them

    Scotland. 60-70% lowering of hospitalisation

    South Africa: 80% lowering of hospitalisation

    Take them all together. This is two big spoonfuls of sugar in a previously bitter cup of tea
    Fingers-crossed. Still suspect we'll have a wobbly few weeks in January though... Christmas family socialising, kids back at school, workers back in the office/factory/etc.

    Going to get colder too - not sure if that helps or hinders.
    The suggestion is cold snaps do correlate postively with rising cases.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    BigRich said:

    Nigelb said:

    Can we not commission a copy of this across from the Chinese embassy ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-59764029

    I would suggest we open the Taiwanese embassy opposite the Chines embassy and the statues in the midal, But I was never very good at diplomacy.
    Obviously not my friend. You can't have both a PRC and an ROC Embassy.
    Doing so would imply there are two Chinas!!
    Rookie error for a diplomat.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,156
    edited December 2021

    Philip is really not happy that Labour is 9 points ahead

    No - he is not happy with authoritarian restrictions especially when the evidence does not support them

    Poll ratings near 3 years out are not a consideration
    They are when the Tories are ahead, strange that
    Bollocks. I've never been bothered by midterm poll ratings. I don't mention them, they're irrelevant.

    Indeed I said so (and predicted your current behaviour) in advance in my 2021 prediction thread which was published NYE last year: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/12/31/predictions-for-2021-from-the-man-who-tipped-sunak-as-next-pm-at-200-1/

    Johnson and Starmer will see mixed polling news in the polls and the delayed local elections. Boris will be able to champion having got Brexit done and the vaccination rollout should be well embedded by May. Starmer will still be emphasising his own new leadership and criticising anything that goes wrong in hindsight. The two parties are likely to remain within margin of error of each other throughout the year – with whichever party is in the lead at any one time being championed by their own supporters but either way ignore it. Its years until the next election and none of this will matter by then.

    I stand by what I said a full 12 months ago: whichever party is in the lead at any one time being championed by their own supporters but either way ignore it. Its years until the next election and none of this will matter by then.

    I need to re-read my predictions and see how accurate I was or not, not done that yet, just searched for that quote.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    edited December 2021
    Meanwhile. The only talk in Wigan today was this dreadful case.

    https://www.wigantoday.net/news/crime/wigan-deputy-head-who-admitted-to-horrific-catalogue-of-child-sex-crimes-has-been-jailed-for-13-years-and-four-months-3504370

    She lives in the small town of 25k I grew up in.
    It's quite knocked the community for six.
    And overshadowed all covid and Chrimbo thoughts.
    Head of Safeguarding at a Primary school...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,061
    The FT on how Bitcoin ends, like a Ponzi scheme but worse:

    https://www.ft.com/content/83a14261-598d-4601-87fc-5dde528b33d0
  • Philip is really not happy that Labour is 9 points ahead

    No - he is not happy with authoritarian restrictions especially when the evidence does not support them

    Poll ratings near 3 years out are not a consideration
    They are when the Tories are ahead, strange that
    Bollocks. I've never been bothered by midterm poll ratings. I don't mention them, they're irrelevant.

    Indeed I said so (and predicted your current behaviour) in advance in my 2021 prediction thread which was published NYE last year: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/12/31/predictions-for-2021-from-the-man-who-tipped-sunak-as-next-pm-at-200-1/

    Johnson and Starmer will see mixed polling news in the polls and the delayed local elections. Boris will be able to champion having got Brexit done and the vaccination rollout should be well embedded by May. Starmer will still be emphasising his own new leadership and criticising anything that goes wrong in hindsight. The two parties are likely to remain within margin of error of each other throughout the year – with whichever party is in the lead at any one time being championed by their own supporters but either way ignore it. Its years until the next election and none of this will matter by then.

    I stand by what I said a full 12 months ago: whichever party is in the lead at any one time being championed by their own supporters but either way ignore it. Its years until the next election and none of this will matter by then.

    I need to re-read my predictions and see how accurate I was or not, not done that yet, just searched for that quote.
    I said Johnson would fall behind and Labour would pull ahead. I was laughed at
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274
    O/T One of those exoctic animal found in the UK stories...

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/dec/22/forklift-driver-finds-deadly-saw-scaled-viper-in-salford-brickyard

    What really caught my attention though is that we transport bricks 4,000 miles from Pakistan.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Philip is really not happy that Labour is 9 points ahead

    No - he is not happy with authoritarian restrictions especially when the evidence does not support them

    Poll ratings near 3 years out are not a consideration
    They are when the Tories are ahead, strange that
    Bollocks. I've never been bothered by midterm poll ratings. I don't mention them, they're irrelevant.

    Indeed I said so (and predicted your current behaviour) in advance in my 2021 prediction thread which was published NYE last year: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/12/31/predictions-for-2021-from-the-man-who-tipped-sunak-as-next-pm-at-200-1/

    Johnson and Starmer will see mixed polling news in the polls and the delayed local elections. Boris will be able to champion having got Brexit done and the vaccination rollout should be well embedded by May. Starmer will still be emphasising his own new leadership and criticising anything that goes wrong in hindsight. The two parties are likely to remain within margin of error of each other throughout the year – with whichever party is in the lead at any one time being championed by their own supporters but either way ignore it. Its years until the next election and none of this will matter by then.

    I stand by what I said a full 12 months ago: whichever party is in the lead at any one time being championed by their own supporters but either way ignore it. Its years until the next election and none of this will matter by then.

    I need to re-read my predictions and see how accurate I was or not, not done that yet, just searched for that quote.
    I said Johnson would fall behind and Labour would pull ahead. I was laughed at
    Literally laughed at? I think your overegging the reaction somewhat (similar to claims of being shouted down etc).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,061
    edited December 2021
    dixiedean said:

    Meanwhile. The only talk in Wigan today was this dreadful case.

    https://www.wigantoday.net/news/crime/wigan-deputy-head-who-admitted-to-horrific-catalogue-of-child-sex-crimes-has-been-jailed-for-13-years-and-four-months-3504370

    She lives in the small town of 25k I grew up in.
    It's quite knocked the community for six.
    And overshadowed all covid and Chrimbo thoughts.
    Head of Safeguarding at a Primary school...

    Particularly worrying is that she was Safeguarding lead, albeit unrelated to this offence.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    dixiedean said:

    BigRich said:

    Nigelb said:

    Can we not commission a copy of this across from the Chinese embassy ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-59764029

    I would suggest we open the Taiwanese embassy opposite the Chines embassy and the statues in the midal, But I was never very good at diplomacy.
    Obviously not my friend. You can't have both a PRC and an ROC Embassy.
    Doing so would imply there are two Chinas!!
    Rookie error for a diplomat.
    That was meant as a Jock,

    As I have posted on here before, I support recognise Taiwan, as Lithuania has recently, and if China gets in to a huf, and withdraws their ambassador, that's there issue.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Must be Christmas - Die Hard is on the telly....

    Two filmic points:

    I have just watched part 1 of the 2013 Great Train Robbery film. They have snow falling in London in August - and you don't have to have independent info to know that, 4 days later they say on screen "12 August - 4 days later"

    Also just watched No Country for Old Men for the 3rd time, and it vies with Private Ryan for being superb for 40 minutes and then meh. Brilliant up to and including Anton not shooting the gas station guy, then yawn, a lotta guys getting shot in motels, and who throws a briefcase full of money into a swamp?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,156
    edited December 2021
    Ouch just reading my predictions back now. A few of them were very bad.

    Trump will continue to complain and be a sore loser but will fade out of office and into ignominy, there will be no disruption to Biden’s inauguration. 2021 will be a relatively calm political year in the USA as people

    Less than a week later that prediction was demolished. Ouch. I despised Trump but he went even worse than my worst opinion of him with January 6.

    My best prediction was probably to keep an eye on Truss, and COP21 went even better than I [then optimistically] was predicting.

    Shame one prediction I didn't get wrong was Australia retaining the Ashes!
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,087
    edited December 2021
    Foxy said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    I have to say the FT article doesn't quite fill me with joy -

    Omicron reduces an individual's hospitalisation risk by 11%.

    Omicron, because it infects more immune people, reduces overall hospitalisation risk by 25%.

    (not sure which source paper, but is that relative to Delta or relative to a basket of previous COVID?)

    If relative to Delta, my question would then be. Is that all?

    Hmm, yes.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/19065fba-025c-43fd-bd76-37234af97953

    "Separately, Danish data showed that among people who tested positive between November 22 and December 15, Omicron cases were three times less likely to be admitted to hospital than cases with other variants. But experts warned that the concentration of Omicron outbreaks among younger groups could skew the data.

    (Chart showing that so far, Omicron cases in Denmark skew younger than cases from other variants)

    “It is primarily young and vaccinated people who are infected with Omicron, and when we adjust for this, we see no evidence that Omicron should result in milder disease,” said Henrik Ullum, director of the Statens Serum Institut, Denmark’s public health agency, in a press conference on Wednesday."

    Does anyone know if the Scottish study was similarly age corrected?
    I've been having a scan of the Imperial report - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2021-12-22-COVID19-Report-50.pdf - and unless I'm having a senior moment it certainly has been. I'd be very surprised if the Scottish authors had made such an elementary mistake as not to account for such confounding factors in their analysis, too.
  • Must be Christmas - Die Hard is on the telly....

    "Welcome to the party, pal!"
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    Almost every front page now leading on omi being less severe.

    Johnson would be mad to now start talking about lockdown from 28th or 3rd Jan.

    We know what he will be doing then ;-)

    It actually seems like Boris himself has been put into lockdown.
    Boris on lockdown or in lockup per Cabinet instructions?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Watched Matrix 4 tonight.

    No. Just no....
This discussion has been closed.