BREAKING: Sinopharm, Johnson & Johnson and the Sputnik Covid-19 vaccines produce little or no antibodies against omicron, a new study finds trib.al/vwS7HmH
Yes, for all the shit it gets AZ still does okay against big Omi. J&J really looks marginal at this point and the Chinese and Russian efforts look like shite on a stick that they're selling as Magnums.
My guess is that J&J is actually fine, but should always have been delivered as two doses, given that it is very similar to AZ.
Indeed, around 20m people in Europe have got J&J as their only vaccine and are only eligible for one booster dose, I really hope the EMA changes the guidance and makes them eligible for two doses of Pfizer/Moderna.
I got an answer to your question from yesterday btw, I'm going to paraphrase because his answer was really technical and full of scientific and statistical jargon (bloody scientists!).
For the immunity groups of three doses of vaccine or higher - immunity is expected to be in the very high 90s in terms of reducing severe disease. This also includes people with an Alpha or Delta infection within the last 12 months. If 1000 people with three doses or previous infection were exposed to Omicron his model suggests 2 or 3 would present severe symptoms.
For two doses - by the same measure it's expected to be in the low 60s or high 50s. If a 1000 two dose people got exposed to Omicron he expects ~20 would get severe symptoms.
For single dose - no significant reduction, AZ recipients may have marginally reduced severity.
For the "super immune" which he classes as people with at least one dose of AZ/Pfizer and an infection within the last twelve months Omicron presents little to no danger, fewer than 1/1000 people will develop severe symptoms.
I've asked him for rough estimates of how the UK population breaks down into the categories so hopefully we'll get an update on that.
That's brilliant, thanks. If that's right, it confirms the view that the really crucial bit is the three doses.
If the two-dose lot are still at that much risk, than it also confirms that countries which are behind on triple-jabbing the most vulnerable (let alone those that haven't even got to one or two doses) are going to be in big trouble. The world, including highly developed countries such as the US and Germany, could well be in for a very rough time indeed over the next few weeks. Fortunately from our point of view, it looks as though in the UK we should escape the worst of it.
What yesterday shows is that a large proportion of natural Conservatives think Boris needs at least a kick up the arse. A free shot. The Bishop Brennan By-election.
It's not as if the Government is going to fall today, is it?
As I told my MP the other night, my own take is that Boris has failed to grow into the role of being PM. He has remained the Prince Hal of Henry IV Part 1 - happy to faff around with Falstaff and Pistol and Doll Tearsheet. He has not become the steely King Henry V, distancing himself with "I know thee not, old man...." of Part 2.
I'd like to think that without Covid - nationally and personally - Boris would have made some serious steps towards a coherent levelling up. He might yet get lucky - with the UK getting through Omicron far better than mainland Europe. But I think it unlikely - France for example is boosting a million a day, well ahead of us. So it probably means 2022 is when we do have a new PM, who looks more like she/he belongs in Number 10. Or at least makes the effort to seem like they are trying to grow into the role.
I believe it was actually Henry IV who said that to Falstaff, not Henry V
No, you are wrong.
He's right. Henry IV is Hal's dad, the Bolingbroke of Richard II.
No, Prince Hal (son of Henry IV) clears the decks of all the previous hangers on to show he has changed, as he becomes king. It is Hal who dismisses Falstaff with his intended hurtful comments. It is Hal who has become Henry V on the death of his father, previously shown.
Boris might like to read on: "How ill white hairs become a fool and jester!".....
Some unsolicited advice for the Lib Dem leadership from a long-standing member following this election:
.....
- Keep Ed Davey in place. The fact he gets little air time and can seem a bit dull need not be a big problem. He exudes competence, is an effective operator and doesn't put some people off like Jo Swinson did
He exudes confidence ..... really?
I'd say any of his predecessors were more attractive. Certainly, Ashdown & Kennedy, even Swinson.
Clegg was a slimy thing that did crawl with legs across the slimy sea ... but he still had a slithery charm.
Ed Davey is almost a caricature of a smug, self-satisfied, prosperous white liberal with a public school education and PPE degree at Oxford.
In fact, I'd say his corpulent and puffing figure symbolizes the LibDem's profound lack of self-awareness, smugness and lecturing self-righteousness.
Any news on whether he has given up his consultancy yet?
I'll put you down as a maybe.
The worst leaders of the lib Dems IMO were Clegg, Swinson and Cable for different reasons.
I don't really see what people find so offensive about Ed Davey. I also think don't think Tim Farron was so bad in hindsight even though it was Brexit which rejuvenated LD fortunes.
BREAKING: Sinopharm, Johnson & Johnson and the Sputnik Covid-19 vaccines produce little or no antibodies against omicron, a new study finds trib.al/vwS7HmH
Yes, for all the shit it gets AZ still does okay against big Omi. J&J really looks marginal at this point and the Chinese and Russian efforts look like shite on a stick that they're selling as Magnums.
My guess is that J&J is actually fine, but should always have been delivered as two doses, given that it is very similar to AZ.
Indeed, around 20m people in Europe have got J&J as their only vaccine and are only eligible for one booster dose, I really hope the EMA changes the guidance and makes them eligible for two doses of Pfizer/Moderna.
I got an answer to your question from yesterday btw, I'm going to paraphrase because his answer was really technical and full of scientific and statistical jargon (bloody scientists!).
For the immunity groups of three doses of vaccine or higher - immunity is expected to be in the very high 90s in terms of reducing severe disease. This also includes people with an Alpha or Delta infection within the last 12 months. If 1000 people with three doses or previous infection were exposed to Omicron his model suggests 2 or 3 would present severe symptoms.
For two doses - by the same measure it's expected to be in the low 60s or high 50s. If a 1000 two dose people got exposed to Omicron he expects ~20 would get severe symptoms.
For single dose - no significant reduction, AZ recipients may have marginally reduced severity.
For the "super immune" which he classes as people with at least one dose of AZ/Pfizer and an infection within the last twelve months Omicron presents little to no danger, fewer than 1/1000 people will develop severe symptoms.
I've asked him for rough estimates of how the UK population breaks down into the categories so hopefully we'll get an update on that.
Estimates, of course, but that's very interesting - & thanks for sharing. Delighted to learn that I'm probably "super immune".
What yesterday shows is that a large proportion of natural Conservatives think Boris needs at least a kick up the arse. A free shot. The Bishop Brennan By-election.
It's not as if the Government is going to fall today, is it?
As I told my MP the other night, my own take is that Boris has failed to grow into the role of being PM. He has remained the Prince Hal of Henry IV Part 1 - happy to faff around with Falstaff and Pistol and Doll Tearsheet. He has not become the steely King Henry V, distancing himself with "I know thee not, old man...." of Part 2.
I'd like to think that without Covid - nationally and personally - Boris would have made some serious steps towards a coherent levelling up. He might yet get lucky - with the UK getting through Omicron far better than mainland Europe. But I think it unlikely - France for example is boosting a million a day, well ahead of us. So it probably means 2022 is when we do have a new PM, who looks more like she/he belongs in Number 10. Or at least makes the effort to seem like they are trying to grow into the role.
I believe it was actually Henry IV who said that to Falstaff, not Henry V
No, you are wrong.
He's right. Henry IV is Hal's dad, the Bolingbroke of Richard II.
He dies a couple of scenes before the line is said. It's said by Prince Hal / Henry V
What yesterday shows is that a large proportion of natural Conservatives think Boris needs at least a kick up the arse. A free shot. The Bishop Brennan By-election.
It's not as if the Government is going to fall today, is it?
As I told my MP the other night, my own take is that Boris has failed to grow into the role of being PM. He has remained the Prince Hal of Henry IV Part 1 - happy to faff around with Falstaff and Pistol and Doll Tearsheet. He has not become the steely King Henry V, distancing himself with "I know thee not, old man...." of Part 2.
I'd like to think that without Covid - nationally and personally - Boris would have made some serious steps towards a coherent levelling up. He might yet get lucky - with the UK getting through Omicron far better than mainland Europe. But I think it unlikely - France for example is boosting a million a day, well ahead of us. So it probably means 2022 is when we do have a new PM, who looks more like she/he belongs in Number 10. Or at least makes the effort to seem like they are trying to grow into the role.
I believe it was actually Henry IV who said that to Falstaff, not Henry V
No, you are wrong.
He's right. Henry IV is Hal's dad, the Bolingbroke of Richard II.
No, Prince Hal (son of Henry IV) clears the decks of all the previous hangers on to show he has changed, as he becomes king. It is Hal who dismisses Falstaff with his intended hurtful comments. It is Hal who has become Henry V on the death of his father, previously shown.
Boris might like to read on: "How ill white hairs become a fool and jester!".....
That's what I though HYUFD said. I think we (I) may be at cross purposes, as I misread him. Apologies.
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes * Simon Case's office had 2 parties last December according to a Guido source who attended both gatherings. One was pre-planned and one was impromptu. The Cabinet Secretary "popped his head" a few times.
I just realised when I got my booster, I didn't get one of those little cards you got when you had the first two jabs. Did other people?
Yes.
No.
And I got a bit worried later, when NHS kept sending me letters saying 'our records show you have not had the booster, you should go and get one'.
I ended up downloading the NHS app to check my actual status.
No-one accepts the paper cards for anything, so it is the NHS app that is key. Takes a couple of days to come through, if it is not there after a few days worth chasing it up.
Thinking back to Hartlepool Peak Boris, someone asked, what happened to the Boris balloon. Well the answer is it got elected. And then it burst.
Boris only won by telling the biggest whoppers in political history with not a clue how to deliver. Absolutely anyone can do same thing, but don’t, they hold back and do politics differently, because
A) they don’t want to be the biggest chump in political history when found out
B destroy for a generation the electoral credibility a political party’s chances they love and care about
How do I know this as fact? Just look at PB. How many here not only in the party a long time but are actually this country’s most thoughtful Natural Conservatives, but resigned when this Boris bonfire of lying and vanity madness came along, now actively helping other parties?
Although people for other parties see this clearly and laughing arse off at Tories posting here stuck in denial how bad this is, it’s not all round funny, it’s still sad and wrong really. Philip Hammond and many others for example, senior and lay in the party, this nations conservative backbone, abused and butchered and cremated on this bonfire of vanity. 😞
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes * Simon Case's office had 2 parties last December according to a Guido source who attended both gatherings. One was pre-planned and one was impromptu. The Cabinet Secretary "popped his head" a few times.
We are going to find out all the civil service and media have been at these parties and / or having their own aren't we.
I just realised when I got my booster, I didn't get one of those little cards you got when you had the first two jabs. Did other people?
I did not get one for my first 2 jabs, which seemed strange at the time, but I was not going to make a fuss in a vaccine canter. this time they gave me one.
I don't know why, it may just be they have run out at that particular centre.
I just realised when I got my booster, I didn't get one of those little cards you got when you had the first two jabs. Did other people?
Yes.
No.
And I got a bit worried later, when NHS kept sending me letters saying 'our records show you have not had the booster, you should go and get one'.
I ended up downloading the NHS app to check my actual status.
No-one accepts the paper cards for anything, so it is the NHS app that is key. Takes a couple of days to come through, if it is not there after a few days worth chasing it up.
Thanks. I was a bit worried that if they didn't have a record of my booster then the card would have been the only way to get the central database record corrected.
As it happens on the app everything was as it should be.
No idea why they waste postage on letters to peeps they know are boosted. The last one arrived last week - 5 weeks after the actual boost.
My biggest fear after this morning's result is that the Conservatives decide, now Brexit is exhausted as an issue, that the "war on woke" will be their wedge issue from now on.
That's on the cards, I think. Vote Tory in order to "protect traditional British values". But I don't see it as having anything like the appeal Get Brexit Done had in 2019. Also SKS has it as a priority to present Labour as a 'short back and sides' outfit that won't repel such voters apart from the subsection of them who are seriously xenophobic.
My biggest fear after this morning's result is that the Conservatives decide, now Brexit is exhausted as an issue, that the "war on woke" will be their wedge issue from now on.
I don't buy "Brexit is dead as an issue".
In NS, food and farming is big - and it will be years before changes to support schemes work through.
In the meantime industry bodies are howling for Government Money more than ever.
At the moment it is all about a shortfall of a couple of percent in the pig slaughter capacity. And seasonal labour for butchers.
I think the by-election shows that the Leave/Remain split has broken down. The Lib Dems just took a Brexity seat despite being the "cancel Brexit" party.
Sadly due to injury AJ and Kai have had to withdraw from Strictly and won’t compete in tomorrow’s Final. We want to thank them for 13 incredible weeks on the show and the pure joy they brought to the dance floor every week.
I think the by-election shows that the Leave/Remain split has broken down. The Lib Dems just took a Brexity seat despite being the "cancel Brexit" party.
They were the kick Boris party. Delusional to read anything else in to it.
I just realised when I got my booster, I didn't get one of those little cards you got when you had the first two jabs. Did other people?
Yes.
No.
And I got a bit worried later, when NHS kept sending me letters saying 'our records show you have not had the booster, you should go and get one'.
I ended up downloading the NHS app to check my actual status.
No-one accepts the paper cards for anything, so it is the NHS app that is key. Takes a couple of days to come through, if it is not there after a few days worth chasing it up.
Thanks. I was a bit worried that if they didn't have a record of my booster then the card would have been the only way to get the central database record corrected.
As it happens on the app everything was as it should be.
No idea why they waste postage on letters to peeps they know are boosted. The last one arrived last week - 5 weeks after the actual boost.
NHS central and GP seem to have different tracking, so neither knows if other has jabbed you.
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes * Simon Case's office had 2 parties last December according to a Guido source who attended both gatherings. One was pre-planned and one was impromptu. The Cabinet Secretary "popped his head" a few times.
We are going to find out all the civil service and media have been at these parties and / or having their own aren't we.
Guido’s going to have a field day with this. Especially the media parties, which will all be part of the gentlemen’s agreement the press have not to throw crap at each other.
What yesterday shows is that a large proportion of natural Conservatives think Boris needs at least a kick up the arse. A free shot. The Bishop Brennan By-election.
It's not as if the Government is going to fall today, is it?
As I told my MP the other night, my own take is that Boris has failed to grow into the role of being PM. He has remained the Prince Hal of Henry IV Part 1 - happy to faff around with Falstaff and Pistol and Doll Tearsheet. He has not become the steely King Henry V, distancing himself with "I know thee not, old man...." of Part 2.
I'd like to think that without Covid - nationally and personally - Boris would have made some serious steps towards a coherent levelling up. He might yet get lucky - with the UK getting through Omicron far better than mainland Europe. But I think it unlikely - France for example is boosting a million a day, well ahead of us. So it probably means 2022 is when we do have a new PM, who looks more like she/he belongs in Number 10. Or at least makes the effort to seem like they are trying to grow into the role.
I believe it was actually Henry IV who said that to Falstaff, not Henry V
No, you are wrong.
He's right. Henry IV is Hal's dad, the Bolingbroke of Richard II.
He dies a couple of scenes before the line is said. It's said by Prince Hal / Henry V
Yes, I know (see the other Hal quote in my previous reply). I just misread badly misread HYUFD's comment.
I just realised when I got my booster, I didn't get one of those little cards you got when you had the first two jabs. Did other people?
Yes.
No.
And I got a bit worried later, when NHS kept sending me letters saying 'our records show you have not had the booster, you should go and get one'.
I ended up downloading the NHS app to check my actual status.
No-one accepts the paper cards for anything, so it is the NHS app that is key. Takes a couple of days to come through, if it is not there after a few days worth chasing it up.
Thanks. I was a bit worried that if they didn't have a record of my booster then the card would have been the only way to get the central database record corrected.
As it happens on the app everything was as it should be.
No idea why they waste postage on letters to peeps they know are boosted. The last one arrived last week - 5 weeks after the actual boost.
NHS central and GP seem to have different tracking, so neither knows if other has jabbed you.
My booking auto cancelled when I used a walk in, so I'm assuming that means it all got registered properly.
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes * Simon Case's office had 2 parties last December according to a Guido source who attended both gatherings. One was pre-planned and one was impromptu. The Cabinet Secretary "popped his head" a few times.
We are going to find out all the civil service and media have been at these parties and / or having their own aren't we.
A massive shot of hopium to prepare for the festive season...
Death rates in the Omicron wave ~2/3 down on previous COVID-19 waves throughout age groups. Results look solid. To what extent caused by Omicron less virulent and/or higher pop immunisation remains to be disentangled.
Given that proportionally Ventilator use is 1/5th of what it was in previous waves it would be pretty distressing if death rates were anything other than hugely reduced.
Why are you so sure about that?
This disease has lead times Initial Illness -> Possibly Hospitalisation -> Possibly Ventilation -> Possibly Death
Given the timescales that Omicron has been around and the previous time frames it took before Ventilation was needed we simply cannot talk accurately about Hospital and other numbers yet.
It may look like omicron results in fewer serious illnesses but I wouldn't want say that's definite yet.
A massive shot of hopium to prepare for the festive season...
Death rates in the Omicron wave ~2/3 down on previous COVID-19 waves throughout age groups. Results look solid. To what extent caused by Omicron less virulent and/or higher pop immunisation remains to be disentangled.
Given that proportionally Ventilator use is 1/5th of what it was in previous waves it would be pretty distressing if death rates were anything other than hugely reduced.
Why are you so sure about that?
This disease has lead times Initial Illness -> Possibly Hospitalisation -> Possibly Ventilation -> Possibly Death
Given the timescales that Omicron has been around and the previous time frames it took before Ventilation was needed we simply cannot talk accurately about Hospital and other numbers yet.
It may look like omicron results in fewer serious illnesses but I wouldn't want say that's definite yet.
There is reasonable reason to believe that Omicron will accelerate the time to serious disease over delta. There will still be lags, but probably shorter than previous waves.
???
Omicron results in earlier sickness because it seemingly attacks the throat first rather than the lungs. While that covers the initial illness it doesn't tell us anything about what happens if the body doesn't fight the illness and the illness progresses.
I think it does. Infectivity is quicker because the viral replication is quicker. Note also in SA (U know, I know) hospital times are reduced on previous waves.
Time will tell, but I'm pretty sure we are not facing the apocalypse.
Have I said we are facing the apocalypse - I haven't and I don't think we are.
What I'm not doing, however, as other people are, is use random data from elsewhere to paint a story that may not be accurate. I'm merely reporting on things I can provide valid links and science behind while others are posting theories that may or may not end up being true.
If Omicron is indeed milder than delta that’s great news. But not necessarily great enough to avoid ‘the apocalypse’
Do we yet know if you can have omicron and delta simultaneously? I’ve seen that suggested, not yet seen it refuted. That would be truly awful
Hopefully just a horrible twist that never arrives. As we end another long, grisly year, the idea of things getting even worse is nearly unbearable
I read the suggestion that the number of Omicron mutations resulted from co-infection and RNA transfer between the parent COVID strain (is it beta or Delta ethnicity? - don't recall) and the 229E endemic sniffle strain.
And that this has allowed Omicron to thrive in the upper lungs where it can replicate and from which it can reinfect quicker, but also makes it milder.
We've had, all through the pandemic saying there's no reason to presume an infection would get milder naturally, unless it confers an advantage. Here is the advantage, an evolutionary reason for mildness beyond your host being able to walk around.
Ignoring the real day to day for a moment, researchers are going to have so much material with which to look at prior pandemics here - they will see anew in the curves they have when and where new variants arise, when the milder strains arise. The advancement in understanding is going to be phenomenal.
Sure, this flavour is in fact milder, which is good, but I don't see a trade off. It *in fact* tends to replicate in the upper airways and leave the lungs alone but there is no particular reason that was more likely to happen than it getting more virulent everywhere.
Viruses that harm the hosts tend to not thrive and for very good reason, either the host dies off (killing the virus) or the host reacts in a way that harms the virus.
Some people have claimed that because there's billions of humans, that there's no evolutionary advantage for mildness, but that's not true. Humanity will react calmer to a milder virus, which allows it to spread more. Humanity will shelter or try to reduce the spread of a more virulent virus.
A more virulent virus would lead to more virulent restrictions.
If Omicron is milder then people with Omicron are going to interact more allowing it to spread more. That's an evolutionary advantage.
If a variant had occurred before Omicron with the same infectiousness but three times the fatality rate, it would have been equally widespread before we had time to work it out. It's highly unlikely that the evolutionary process you postulate exists in this case. The strong scientific consensus is that as disease viruses evolve, their virulence (in terms of damage to the host) is pretty well random.
Because evolution and viruses are not able to project into the future and imagine how their hosts will respond. The argument "if x then y, y is bad for reproduction, therefore not x" is definitely NOT how evolution works.
Philip is right to the extent that human intervention has clearly become a factor in viral evolution (cf Smallpox...). But the idea that a small difference in fatality rate, which shows up weeks after the initial viral spread, in something as rapidly reproducing as Covid, would make any difference, is unrealistic.
Its not at all unrealistic.
Lets spin the question on its head. We've had a lot of talks about Omicron being milder but that "half the risk with twice as many people ..." etc
But lets imagine that if instead it being half the risk it was considered to be twice as deadly.
Do you really think that if this virus were more spreadable and twice as deadly as Delta per person that we'd have no difference in restrictions? Had the reports been that this virus were twice as deadly as Delta per person then much tougher restrictions would be in place already.
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes * Simon Case's office had 2 parties last December according to a Guido source who attended both gatherings. One was pre-planned and one was impromptu. The Cabinet Secretary "popped his head" a few times.
We are going to find out all the civil service and media have been at these parties and / or having their own aren't we.
Yep.
One rule etc.
Well we saw it the other day with mask usage before the press conference.....then the pearl clutching that the PM took his mask off for a second in their presence.
A massive shot of hopium to prepare for the festive season...
Death rates in the Omicron wave ~2/3 down on previous COVID-19 waves throughout age groups. Results look solid. To what extent caused by Omicron less virulent and/or higher pop immunisation remains to be disentangled.
Given that proportionally Ventilator use is 1/5th of what it was in previous waves it would be pretty distressing if death rates were anything other than hugely reduced.
Why are you so sure about that?
This disease has lead times Initial Illness -> Possibly Hospitalisation -> Possibly Ventilation -> Possibly Death
Given the timescales that Omicron has been around and the previous time frames it took before Ventilation was needed we simply cannot talk accurately about Hospital and other numbers yet.
It may look like omicron results in fewer serious illnesses but I wouldn't want say that's definite yet.
A massive shot of hopium to prepare for the festive season...
Death rates in the Omicron wave ~2/3 down on previous COVID-19 waves throughout age groups. Results look solid. To what extent caused by Omicron less virulent and/or higher pop immunisation remains to be disentangled.
Given that proportionally Ventilator use is 1/5th of what it was in previous waves it would be pretty distressing if death rates were anything other than hugely reduced.
Why are you so sure about that?
This disease has lead times Initial Illness -> Possibly Hospitalisation -> Possibly Ventilation -> Possibly Death
Given the timescales that Omicron has been around and the previous time frames it took before Ventilation was needed we simply cannot talk accurately about Hospital and other numbers yet.
It may look like omicron results in fewer serious illnesses but I wouldn't want say that's definite yet.
There is reasonable reason to believe that Omicron will accelerate the time to serious disease over delta. There will still be lags, but probably shorter than previous waves.
???
Omicron results in earlier sickness because it seemingly attacks the throat first rather than the lungs. While that covers the initial illness it doesn't tell us anything about what happens if the body doesn't fight the illness and the illness progresses.
I think it does. Infectivity is quicker because the viral replication is quicker. Note also in SA (U know, I know) hospital times are reduced on previous waves.
Time will tell, but I'm pretty sure we are not facing the apocalypse.
Have I said we are facing the apocalypse - I haven't and I don't think we are.
What I'm not doing, however, as other people are, is use random data from elsewhere to paint a story that may not be accurate. I'm merely reporting on things I can provide valid links and science behind while others are posting theories that may or may not end up being true.
If Omicron is indeed milder than delta that’s great news. But not necessarily great enough to avoid ‘the apocalypse’
Do we yet know if you can have omicron and delta simultaneously? I’ve seen that suggested, not yet seen it refuted. That would be truly awful
Hopefully just a horrible twist that never arrives. As we end another long, grisly year, the idea of things getting even worse is nearly unbearable
I read the suggestion that the number of Omicron mutations resulted from co-infection and RNA transfer between the parent COVID strain (is it beta or Delta ethnicity? - don't recall) and the 229E endemic sniffle strain.
And that this has allowed Omicron to thrive in the upper lungs where it can replicate and from which it can reinfect quicker, but also makes it milder.
We've had, all through the pandemic saying there's no reason to presume an infection would get milder naturally, unless it confers an advantage. Here is the advantage, an evolutionary reason for mildness beyond your host being able to walk around.
Ignoring the real day to day for a moment, researchers are going to have so much material with which to look at prior pandemics here - they will see anew in the curves they have when and where new variants arise, when the milder strains arise. The advancement in understanding is going to be phenomenal.
Sure, this flavour is in fact milder, which is good, but I don't see a trade off. It *in fact* tends to replicate in the upper airways and leave the lungs alone but there is no particular reason that was more likely to happen than it getting more virulent everywhere.
That's February. Although I'd accept the tenor of that article, one example is specifically playing out before us as we speak.
Increasing raw R0 over delta is a hard strategy - it is very high already, and additional optimisation only takes the herd immunity level up a little and opens up a few hosts. There is not much evolutionary advantage. Omicron hasn't.
Immune escape is an easier strategy, it brings lots more hosts into play who, with some immune memory, render the disease milder (even if the virus is not innately milder). Omicron does this. Variants will rinse and repeat forever.
The other way to increase speed without increasing R0 is to shorten the generation time - have more R multiplier cycles per week. It looks very much like going upper respiratory is the way to do this, and as a by-product of that the disease becomes innately milder. This also very much appears to be an Omicron trick.
That is not general to all pandemics*, but I'd vouch that it is applicable to other respiratory pandemics and Omicron like waves are to be found elsewhere in the historical record.
(*Measles fighting lifelong vaccine protection is very high R0 now and I wonder if that has increased with time as the only route open to that virus).
I think the by-election shows that the Leave/Remain split has broken down. The Lib Dems just took a Brexity seat despite being the "cancel Brexit" party.
They were the kick Boris party. Delusional to read anything else in to it.
Or perhaps it's that Boris Johnson was never as popular as he seemed and instead he won because he was up against Jeremy Corbyn and a party trying to cancel Brexit.
I think the Tories are on their slow way down now, will they lose the next election? Possibly - but they're on their way to opposition now
What yesterday shows is that a large proportion of natural Conservatives think Boris needs at least a kick up the arse. A free shot. The Bishop Brennan By-election.
It's not as if the Government is going to fall today, is it?
As I told my MP the other night, my own take is that Boris has failed to grow into the role of being PM. He has remained the Prince Hal of Henry IV Part 1 - happy to faff around with Falstaff and Pistol and Doll Tearsheet. He has not become the steely King Henry V, distancing himself with "I know thee not, old man...." of Part 2.
I'd like to think that without Covid - nationally and personally - Boris would have made some serious steps towards a coherent levelling up. He might yet get lucky - with the UK getting through Omicron far better than mainland Europe. But I think it unlikely - France for example is boosting a million a day, well ahead of us. So it probably means 2022 is when we do have a new PM, who looks more like she/he belongs in Number 10. Or at least makes the effort to seem like they are trying to grow into the role.
I believe it was actually Henry IV who said that to Falstaff, not Henry V
No, you are wrong.
He's right. Henry IV is Hal's dad, the Bolingbroke of Richard II.
He dies a couple of scenes before the line is said. It's said by Prince Hal / Henry V
Yes, I know (see the other Hal quote in my previous reply). I just misread badly misread HYUFD's comment.
Well not according to this version anyway, even if it is wrong
A massive shot of hopium to prepare for the festive season...
Death rates in the Omicron wave ~2/3 down on previous COVID-19 waves throughout age groups. Results look solid. To what extent caused by Omicron less virulent and/or higher pop immunisation remains to be disentangled.
Given that proportionally Ventilator use is 1/5th of what it was in previous waves it would be pretty distressing if death rates were anything other than hugely reduced.
Why are you so sure about that?
This disease has lead times Initial Illness -> Possibly Hospitalisation -> Possibly Ventilation -> Possibly Death
Given the timescales that Omicron has been around and the previous time frames it took before Ventilation was needed we simply cannot talk accurately about Hospital and other numbers yet.
It may look like omicron results in fewer serious illnesses but I wouldn't want say that's definite yet.
A massive shot of hopium to prepare for the festive season...
Death rates in the Omicron wave ~2/3 down on previous COVID-19 waves throughout age groups. Results look solid. To what extent caused by Omicron less virulent and/or higher pop immunisation remains to be disentangled.
Given that proportionally Ventilator use is 1/5th of what it was in previous waves it would be pretty distressing if death rates were anything other than hugely reduced.
Why are you so sure about that?
This disease has lead times Initial Illness -> Possibly Hospitalisation -> Possibly Ventilation -> Possibly Death
Given the timescales that Omicron has been around and the previous time frames it took before Ventilation was needed we simply cannot talk accurately about Hospital and other numbers yet.
It may look like omicron results in fewer serious illnesses but I wouldn't want say that's definite yet.
There is reasonable reason to believe that Omicron will accelerate the time to serious disease over delta. There will still be lags, but probably shorter than previous waves.
???
Omicron results in earlier sickness because it seemingly attacks the throat first rather than the lungs. While that covers the initial illness it doesn't tell us anything about what happens if the body doesn't fight the illness and the illness progresses.
I think it does. Infectivity is quicker because the viral replication is quicker. Note also in SA (U know, I know) hospital times are reduced on previous waves.
Time will tell, but I'm pretty sure we are not facing the apocalypse.
Have I said we are facing the apocalypse - I haven't and I don't think we are.
What I'm not doing, however, as other people are, is use random data from elsewhere to paint a story that may not be accurate. I'm merely reporting on things I can provide valid links and science behind while others are posting theories that may or may not end up being true.
If Omicron is indeed milder than delta that’s great news. But not necessarily great enough to avoid ‘the apocalypse’
Do we yet know if you can have omicron and delta simultaneously? I’ve seen that suggested, not yet seen it refuted. That would be truly awful
Hopefully just a horrible twist that never arrives. As we end another long, grisly year, the idea of things getting even worse is nearly unbearable
I read the suggestion that the number of Omicron mutations resulted from co-infection and RNA transfer between the parent COVID strain (is it beta or Delta ethnicity? - don't recall) and the 229E endemic sniffle strain.
And that this has allowed Omicron to thrive in the upper lungs where it can replicate and from which it can reinfect quicker, but also makes it milder.
We've had, all through the pandemic saying there's no reason to presume an infection would get milder naturally, unless it confers an advantage. Here is the advantage, an evolutionary reason for mildness beyond your host being able to walk around.
Ignoring the real day to day for a moment, researchers are going to have so much material with which to look at prior pandemics here - they will see anew in the curves they have when and where new variants arise, when the milder strains arise. The advancement in understanding is going to be phenomenal.
Sure, this flavour is in fact milder, which is good, but I don't see a trade off. It *in fact* tends to replicate in the upper airways and leave the lungs alone but there is no particular reason that was more likely to happen than it getting more virulent everywhere.
Viruses that harm the hosts tend to not thrive and for very good reason, either the host dies off (killing the virus) or the host reacts in a way that harms the virus.
Some people have claimed that because there's billions of humans, that there's no evolutionary advantage for mildness, but that's not true. Humanity will react calmer to a milder virus, which allows it to spread more. Humanity will shelter or try to reduce the spread of a more virulent virus.
A more virulent virus would lead to more virulent restrictions.
If Omicron is milder then people with Omicron are going to interact more allowing it to spread more. That's an evolutionary advantage.
If a variant had occurred before Omicron with the same infectiousness but three times the fatality rate, it would have been equally widespread before we had time to work it out. It's highly unlikely that the evolutionary process you postulate exists in this case. The strong scientific consensus is that as disease viruses evolve, their virulence (in terms of damage to the host) is pretty well random.
Because evolution and viruses are not able to project into the future and imagine how their hosts will respond. The argument "if x then y, y is bad for reproduction, therefore not x" is definitely NOT how evolution works.
Philip is right to the extent that human intervention has clearly become a factor in viral evolution (cf Smallpox...). But the idea that a small difference in fatality rate, which shows up weeks after the initial viral spread, in something as rapidly reproducing as Covid, would make any difference, is unrealistic.
Yes, "x" happens and then we deal with it. It's very difficult to think about evolution without purposefulness and conscious choices creeping into descriptions, and it becoming a Just-So story. The important thing to remember is that almost every mutation isn't in the "interests" of the overall genotype/phenotype. So even if we know that certain patterns of virulence will be vigorously opposed by human societies, it certainly doesn't mean it won't happen.
If the synthetic biology revolution takes off, it's going to get a lot weirder.
North Shropshire is worse for Boris Johnson than either Orpington in 1962 or Eastbourne in 1990 – both of which seriously wounded previously unassailable Tory premiers.
I just realised when I got my booster, I didn't get one of those little cards you got when you had the first two jabs. Did other people?
Yes.
No.
And I got a bit worried later, when NHS kept sending me letters saying 'our records show you have not had the booster, you should go and get one'.
I ended up downloading the NHS app to check my actual status.
No-one accepts the paper cards for anything, so it is the NHS app that is key. Takes a couple of days to come through, if it is not there after a few days worth chasing it up.
Thanks. I was a bit worried that if they didn't have a record of my booster then the card would have been the only way to get the central database record corrected.
As it happens on the app everything was as it should be.
No idea why they waste postage on letters to peeps they know are boosted. The last one arrived last week - 5 weeks after the actual boost.
My NHS app updated my vax status within hours of my booster. Impressive
The guy investigating whether there were any xmas parties had allegedly two xmas parties himself.
Just pure Yes, Minister frankly.
Explains why Tories were so confident he would exonerate them...
He does seem to explode the pretty thin veneer of a meritocracy in the civil service. Looks about 25, hesitent and unimpressive every time he goes in front of a select committee. Must have photos on someone very senior to have got that job.
The guy investigating whether there were any xmas parties had allegedly two xmas parties himself.
Just pure Yes, Minister frankly.
Nothing wrong with that at all. Everyone looking far too hard for impropriety these days, especially when they all went to the right schools.
Let's just hope that when he and his team have found the relevant excuses (sorry, concluded their impartial investigation) that they are not put off having a party to celebrate (sorry, a business gathering essential to motivate supremely hard working chaps that may involve a bit of booze and some party games, and at premises exempt from the law anyway).
My biggest fear after this morning's result is that the Conservatives decide, now Brexit is exhausted as an issue, that the "war on woke" will be their wedge issue from now on.
I don't buy "Brexit is dead as an issue".
In NS, food and farming is big - and it will be years before changes to support schemes work through.
In the meantime industry bodies are howling for Government Money more than ever.
At the moment it is all about a shortfall of a couple of percent in the pig slaughter capacity. And seasonal labour for butchers.
Ag Min has currently gone into hiding.
Yes, and there were reports from North Shropshire that Leave-voting farmers were starting to worry about continued subsidies. Make Brexit Work might help see Starmer home.
What yesterday shows is that a large proportion of natural Conservatives think Boris needs at least a kick up the arse. A free shot. The Bishop Brennan By-election.
It's not as if the Government is going to fall today, is it?
As I told my MP the other night, my own take is that Boris has failed to grow into the role of being PM. He has remained the Prince Hal of Henry IV Part 1 - happy to faff around with Falstaff and Pistol and Doll Tearsheet. He has not become the steely King Henry V, distancing himself with "I know thee not, old man...." of Part 2.
I'd like to think that without Covid - nationally and personally - Boris would have made some serious steps towards a coherent levelling up. He might yet get lucky - with the UK getting through Omicron far better than mainland Europe. But I think it unlikely - France for example is boosting a million a day, well ahead of us. So it probably means 2022 is when we do have a new PM, who looks more like she/he belongs in Number 10. Or at least makes the effort to seem like they are trying to grow into the role.
I believe it was actually Henry IV who said that to Falstaff, not Henry V
No, you are wrong.
He's right. Henry IV is Hal's dad, the Bolingbroke of Richard II.
He dies a couple of scenes before the line is said. It's said by Prince Hal / Henry V
Yes, I know (see the other Hal quote in my previous reply). I just misread badly misread HYUFD's comment.
Well not according to this version anyway, even if it is wrong
This line is quite dangerous: "It will also be useful to the LDs in future seats where Labour is in second place and might claim to be the real contender." That is OK at a by-election but would be utterly toxic to even informal cooperation if it became common, since it wojuld lead to LD-Lab internecine warfare all over the country and complete confusion among anti-Tory voters. We saw some of it in 2019, with the LibDem in Uxbridge, on 6%, claiming that only he could beat Boris. If even the limited mutual deference shown in Bexley and N Shropshire is to work, it needs to avoid that kind of thing.
What yesterday shows is that a large proportion of natural Conservatives think Boris needs at least a kick up the arse. A free shot. The Bishop Brennan By-election.
It's not as if the Government is going to fall today, is it?
As I told my MP the other night, my own take is that Boris has failed to grow into the role of being PM. He has remained the Prince Hal of Henry IV Part 1 - happy to faff around with Falstaff and Pistol and Doll Tearsheet. He has not become the steely King Henry V, distancing himself with "I know thee not, old man...." of Part 2.
I'd like to think that without Covid - nationally and personally - Boris would have made some serious steps towards a coherent levelling up. He might yet get lucky - with the UK getting through Omicron far better than mainland Europe. But I think it unlikely - France for example is boosting a million a day, well ahead of us. So it probably means 2022 is when we do have a new PM, who looks more like she/he belongs in Number 10. Or at least makes the effort to seem like they are trying to grow into the role.
I believe it was actually Henry IV who said that to Falstaff, not Henry V
No, you are wrong.
He's right. Henry IV is Hal's dad, the Bolingbroke of Richard II.
He dies a couple of scenes before the line is said. It's said by Prince Hal / Henry V
Yes, I know (see the other Hal quote in my previous reply). I just misread badly misread HYUFD's comment.
Well not according to this version anyway, even if it is wrong
...but sweet Jack Falstaff, valiant Jack Falstaff, and therefore more valiant being as he is, oh Jack Falstaff, banish not him from Harry’s company, banish plump Jack and banish all the world
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes * Simon Case's office had 2 parties last December according to a Guido source who attended both gatherings. One was pre-planned and one was impromptu. The Cabinet Secretary "popped his head" a few times.
We are going to find out all the civil service and media have been at these parties and / or having their own aren't we.
I think if we dig a bit deeper, we could well find out that the general public has also been doing quite a lot of illicit partying during lockdown.
What yesterday shows is that a large proportion of natural Conservatives think Boris needs at least a kick up the arse. A free shot. The Bishop Brennan By-election.
It's not as if the Government is going to fall today, is it?
As I told my MP the other night, my own take is that Boris has failed to grow into the role of being PM. He has remained the Prince Hal of Henry IV Part 1 - happy to faff around with Falstaff and Pistol and Doll Tearsheet. He has not become the steely King Henry V, distancing himself with "I know thee not, old man...." of Part 2.
I'd like to think that without Covid - nationally and personally - Boris would have made some serious steps towards a coherent levelling up. He might yet get lucky - with the UK getting through Omicron far better than mainland Europe. But I think it unlikely - France for example is boosting a million a day, well ahead of us. So it probably means 2022 is when we do have a new PM, who looks more like she/he belongs in Number 10. Or at least makes the effort to seem like they are trying to grow into the role.
I believe it was actually Henry IV who said that to Falstaff, not Henry V
No, you are wrong.
He's right. Henry IV is Hal's dad, the Bolingbroke of Richard II.
He dies a couple of scenes before the line is said. It's said by Prince Hal / Henry V
Yes, I know (see the other Hal quote in my previous reply). I just misread badly misread HYUFD's comment.
Well not according to this version anyway, even if it is wrong
Just above it says "Enter KING HENRY V and his train, the Lord Chief- Justice among them", and just below it says "Exeunt KING HENRY V, & c". The other clue is that King Henry IV goes off to die at the end of Act 4, Scene 5.
I think the by-election shows that the Leave/Remain split has broken down. The Lib Dems just took a Brexity seat despite being the "cancel Brexit" party.
They were the kick Boris party. Delusional to read anything else in to it.
Or perhaps it's that Boris Johnson was never as popular as he seemed and instead he won because he was up against Jeremy Corbyn and a party trying to cancel Brexit.
I think the Tories are on their slow way down now, will they lose the next election? Possibly - but they're on their way to opposition now
The unknowable bit there is whether Boris won because he was against Corbyn, or that he won because he successfully created a narrative about the threat to the nation Corbyn posed and managed to get widespread acceptance that "trying to define what Brexit actually means" is the same as "trying to cancel Brexit" - after all, you don't beat your opponent, you beat the media portrayal of them that takes root. In some ways you can understand why he complains about the media not focusing on what he wants them to now - because he won previously by being able to control the narrative, and perhaps doesn't understand why he can't any more.
My biggest fear after this morning's result is that the Conservatives decide, now Brexit is exhausted as an issue, that the "war on woke" will be their wedge issue from now on.
I don't buy "Brexit is dead as an issue".
In NS, food and farming is big - and it will be years before changes to support schemes work through.
In the meantime industry bodies are howling for Government Money more than ever.
At the moment it is all about a shortfall of a couple of percent in the pig slaughter capacity. And seasonal labour for butchers.
Ag Min has currently gone into hiding.
Yes, and there were reports from North Shropshire that Leave-voting farmers were starting to worry about continued subsidies. Make Brexit Work might help see Starmer home.
So the Torys have a couple of years to have a real impact.
A massive shot of hopium to prepare for the festive season...
Death rates in the Omicron wave ~2/3 down on previous COVID-19 waves throughout age groups. Results look solid. To what extent caused by Omicron less virulent and/or higher pop immunisation remains to be disentangled.
Given that proportionally Ventilator use is 1/5th of what it was in previous waves it would be pretty distressing if death rates were anything other than hugely reduced.
Why are you so sure about that?
This disease has lead times Initial Illness -> Possibly Hospitalisation -> Possibly Ventilation -> Possibly Death
Given the timescales that Omicron has been around and the previous time frames it took before Ventilation was needed we simply cannot talk accurately about Hospital and other numbers yet.
It may look like omicron results in fewer serious illnesses but I wouldn't want say that's definite yet.
A massive shot of hopium to prepare for the festive season...
Death rates in the Omicron wave ~2/3 down on previous COVID-19 waves throughout age groups. Results look solid. To what extent caused by Omicron less virulent and/or higher pop immunisation remains to be disentangled.
Given that proportionally Ventilator use is 1/5th of what it was in previous waves it would be pretty distressing if death rates were anything other than hugely reduced.
Why are you so sure about that?
This disease has lead times Initial Illness -> Possibly Hospitalisation -> Possibly Ventilation -> Possibly Death
Given the timescales that Omicron has been around and the previous time frames it took before Ventilation was needed we simply cannot talk accurately about Hospital and other numbers yet.
It may look like omicron results in fewer serious illnesses but I wouldn't want say that's definite yet.
There is reasonable reason to believe that Omicron will accelerate the time to serious disease over delta. There will still be lags, but probably shorter than previous waves.
???
Omicron results in earlier sickness because it seemingly attacks the throat first rather than the lungs. While that covers the initial illness it doesn't tell us anything about what happens if the body doesn't fight the illness and the illness progresses.
I think it does. Infectivity is quicker because the viral replication is quicker. Note also in SA (U know, I know) hospital times are reduced on previous waves.
Time will tell, but I'm pretty sure we are not facing the apocalypse.
Have I said we are facing the apocalypse - I haven't and I don't think we are.
What I'm not doing, however, as other people are, is use random data from elsewhere to paint a story that may not be accurate. I'm merely reporting on things I can provide valid links and science behind while others are posting theories that may or may not end up being true.
If Omicron is indeed milder than delta that’s great news. But not necessarily great enough to avoid ‘the apocalypse’
Do we yet know if you can have omicron and delta simultaneously? I’ve seen that suggested, not yet seen it refuted. That would be truly awful
Hopefully just a horrible twist that never arrives. As we end another long, grisly year, the idea of things getting even worse is nearly unbearable
I read the suggestion that the number of Omicron mutations resulted from co-infection and RNA transfer between the parent COVID strain (is it beta or Delta ethnicity? - don't recall) and the 229E endemic sniffle strain.
And that this has allowed Omicron to thrive in the upper lungs where it can replicate and from which it can reinfect quicker, but also makes it milder.
We've had, all through the pandemic saying there's no reason to presume an infection would get milder naturally, unless it confers an advantage. Here is the advantage, an evolutionary reason for mildness beyond your host being able to walk around.
Ignoring the real day to day for a moment, researchers are going to have so much material with which to look at prior pandemics here - they will see anew in the curves they have when and where new variants arise, when the milder strains arise. The advancement in understanding is going to be phenomenal.
Sure, this flavour is in fact milder, which is good, but I don't see a trade off. It *in fact* tends to replicate in the upper airways and leave the lungs alone but there is no particular reason that was more likely to happen than it getting more virulent everywhere.
Viruses that harm the hosts tend to not thrive and for very good reason, either the host dies off (killing the virus) or the host reacts in a way that harms the virus.
Some people have claimed that because there's billions of humans, that there's no evolutionary advantage for mildness, but that's not true. Humanity will react calmer to a milder virus, which allows it to spread more. Humanity will shelter or try to reduce the spread of a more virulent virus.
A more virulent virus would lead to more virulent restrictions.
If Omicron is milder then people with Omicron are going to interact more allowing it to spread more. That's an evolutionary advantage.
If a variant had occurred before Omicron with the same infectiousness but three times the fatality rate, it would have been equally widespread before we had time to work it out. It's highly unlikely that the evolutionary process you postulate exists in this case. The strong scientific consensus is that as disease viruses evolve, their virulence (in terms of damage to the host) is pretty well random.
Because evolution and viruses are not able to project into the future and imagine how their hosts will respond. The argument "if x then y, y is bad for reproduction, therefore not x" is definitely NOT how evolution works.
Philip is right to the extent that human intervention has clearly become a factor in viral evolution (cf Smallpox...). But the idea that a small difference in fatality rate, which shows up weeks after the initial viral spread, in something as rapidly reproducing as Covid, would make any difference, is unrealistic.
Its not at all unrealistic.
Lets spin the question on its head. We've had a lot of talks about Omicron being milder but that "half the risk with twice as many people ..." etc
But lets imagine that if instead it being half the risk it was considered to be twice as deadly.
Do you really think that if this virus were more spreadable and twice as deadly as Delta per person that we'd have no difference in restrictions? Had the reports been that this virus were twice as deadly as Delta per person then much tougher restrictions would be in place already.
Do you think if that were the case it would make any difference at all to the eventual prevalence of the variant (as opposed to slowing its spread) ? The restrictions, of course, would have a similar suppressive effect on the less virulent/infectious variants.
I see Nicola Sturgeon has gone back to her old routine of using TV briefings to attack the Press. The way she responded to a polite question from @Mike_Blackley there was disgraceful. I realise this will bring her fans to my door but I don't care.
My biggest fear after this morning's result is that the Conservatives decide, now Brexit is exhausted as an issue, that the "war on woke" will be their wedge issue from now on.
I don't buy "Brexit is dead as an issue".
In NS, food and farming is big - and it will be years before changes to support schemes work through.
In the meantime industry bodies are howling for Government Money more than ever.
At the moment it is all about a shortfall of a couple of percent in the pig slaughter capacity. And seasonal labour for butchers.
Ag Min has currently gone into hiding.
Yes, and there were reports from North Shropshire that Leave-voting farmers were starting to worry about continued subsidies. Make Brexit Work might help see Starmer home.
As somebody from that general area, I think the "farming" aspect has been a little bit over stated. Sure it definitely is farming land, but place like Market Drayton have over the past few years grown significantly, with new builds. Its isn't "full of farmers" these days.
It houses a big influx of people that commute to Telford to work big multi-national companies based there and the Mueller Factory in the town (which yes is dependent on local milk production, but Bob going to work in that factory isn't worrying about the details EU vs UK subsidies for agricultural production).
That is a fantastically written article and explains well both why I liked Boris and why I want him out ASAP. This sums it up:
Those who were inspired by his manifesto of a “liberal Conservative” (his words) were most likely to back him for leader – and most likely to rebel against him on Tuesday. Not because they’re suddenly against him but because they have the courage of his (old) convictions.
Who could have possibly imagined that unscrupulous nationalist politicians might not act in a liberal manner?
Indeed. People shouldn't kid themselves. Just as Johnson used Brexit as a vehicle to gain power, the Tory Party and Leavers used him as a vehicle for what they wanted, a Con election win and the UK taken out of the EU. To the extent there was ideology in the mix it was the ideology of nationalist populism. He was (is) Mr Brexit - such was his USP- and Brexit was (is) a nationalist populist project. It made rational sense to support him to deliver that project and to smash Corbyn. Anybody who supported him for other reasons - eg and esp thinking he was some sort of 'liberal one nation' Conservative - needs to take a look in the mirror because it's not only obvious now they were being conned it was obvious then.
He was (is) Mr anti anti-Semitic party.
Sure - his 2019 landslide was built not on Getting Brexit Done but a national revulsion for antisemitism.
How's the weather today in that lovely parallel Britain you live in? Warm and sunny, I bet.
Brass necks at the Kremlin as they demand in one document that Nato both adhere to the Helsinki Final Acts (states have "the right to be or not to be a party to treaties of alliance") and take a vow to never to let Ukraine join their alliance.
That is a fantastically written article and explains well both why I liked Boris and why I want him out ASAP. This sums it up:
Those who were inspired by his manifesto of a “liberal Conservative” (his words) were most likely to back him for leader – and most likely to rebel against him on Tuesday. Not because they’re suddenly against him but because they have the courage of his (old) convictions.
Who could have possibly imagined that unscrupulous nationalist politicians might not act in a liberal manner?
Indeed. People shouldn't kid themselves. Just as Johnson used Brexit as a vehicle to gain power, the Tory Party and Leavers used him as a vehicle for what they wanted, a Con election win and the UK taken out of the EU. To the extent there was ideology in the mix it was the ideology of nationalist populism. He was (is) Mr Brexit - such was his USP- and Brexit was (is) a nationalist populist project. It made rational sense to support him to deliver that project and to smash Corbyn. Anybody who supported him for other reasons - eg and esp thinking he was some sort of 'liberal one nation' Conservative - needs to take a look in the mirror because it's not only obvious now they were being conned it was obvious then.
He was (is) Mr anti anti-Semitic party.
Sure - his 2019 landslide was built not on Getting Brexit Done but a national revulsion for antisemitism.
How's the weather in that lovely parallel world you live in? Warm and sunny, I bet.
Anti-Semitism obviously played a part but the reality is that Johnson beat the most unpopular Labour leader ever, with a party that had no message and no coherent policy platform and with other parties that spent more time attacking each other than the Tories.
Are we seeing the fall of Boris Johnson or just what happens when he goes up against opposition that isn't unpopular?
A massive shot of hopium to prepare for the festive season...
Death rates in the Omicron wave ~2/3 down on previous COVID-19 waves throughout age groups. Results look solid. To what extent caused by Omicron less virulent and/or higher pop immunisation remains to be disentangled.
Given that proportionally Ventilator use is 1/5th of what it was in previous waves it would be pretty distressing if death rates were anything other than hugely reduced.
Why are you so sure about that?
This disease has lead times Initial Illness -> Possibly Hospitalisation -> Possibly Ventilation -> Possibly Death
Given the timescales that Omicron has been around and the previous time frames it took before Ventilation was needed we simply cannot talk accurately about Hospital and other numbers yet.
It may look like omicron results in fewer serious illnesses but I wouldn't want say that's definite yet.
A massive shot of hopium to prepare for the festive season...
Death rates in the Omicron wave ~2/3 down on previous COVID-19 waves throughout age groups. Results look solid. To what extent caused by Omicron less virulent and/or higher pop immunisation remains to be disentangled.
Given that proportionally Ventilator use is 1/5th of what it was in previous waves it would be pretty distressing if death rates were anything other than hugely reduced.
Why are you so sure about that?
This disease has lead times Initial Illness -> Possibly Hospitalisation -> Possibly Ventilation -> Possibly Death
Given the timescales that Omicron has been around and the previous time frames it took before Ventilation was needed we simply cannot talk accurately about Hospital and other numbers yet.
It may look like omicron results in fewer serious illnesses but I wouldn't want say that's definite yet.
There is reasonable reason to believe that Omicron will accelerate the time to serious disease over delta. There will still be lags, but probably shorter than previous waves.
???
Omicron results in earlier sickness because it seemingly attacks the throat first rather than the lungs. While that covers the initial illness it doesn't tell us anything about what happens if the body doesn't fight the illness and the illness progresses.
I think it does. Infectivity is quicker because the viral replication is quicker. Note also in SA (U know, I know) hospital times are reduced on previous waves.
Time will tell, but I'm pretty sure we are not facing the apocalypse.
Have I said we are facing the apocalypse - I haven't and I don't think we are.
What I'm not doing, however, as other people are, is use random data from elsewhere to paint a story that may not be accurate. I'm merely reporting on things I can provide valid links and science behind while others are posting theories that may or may not end up being true.
If Omicron is indeed milder than delta that’s great news. But not necessarily great enough to avoid ‘the apocalypse’
Do we yet know if you can have omicron and delta simultaneously? I’ve seen that suggested, not yet seen it refuted. That would be truly awful
Hopefully just a horrible twist that never arrives. As we end another long, grisly year, the idea of things getting even worse is nearly unbearable
I read the suggestion that the number of Omicron mutations resulted from co-infection and RNA transfer between the parent COVID strain (is it beta or Delta ethnicity? - don't recall) and the 229E endemic sniffle strain.
And that this has allowed Omicron to thrive in the upper lungs where it can replicate and from which it can reinfect quicker, but also makes it milder.
We've had, all through the pandemic saying there's no reason to presume an infection would get milder naturally, unless it confers an advantage. Here is the advantage, an evolutionary reason for mildness beyond your host being able to walk around.
Ignoring the real day to day for a moment, researchers are going to have so much material with which to look at prior pandemics here - they will see anew in the curves they have when and where new variants arise, when the milder strains arise. The advancement in understanding is going to be phenomenal.
Sure, this flavour is in fact milder, which is good, but I don't see a trade off. It *in fact* tends to replicate in the upper airways and leave the lungs alone but there is no particular reason that was more likely to happen than it getting more virulent everywhere.
Viruses that harm the hosts tend to not thrive and for very good reason, either the host dies off (killing the virus) or the host reacts in a way that harms the virus.
Some people have claimed that because there's billions of humans, that there's no evolutionary advantage for mildness, but that's not true. Humanity will react calmer to a milder virus, which allows it to spread more. Humanity will shelter or try to reduce the spread of a more virulent virus.
A more virulent virus would lead to more virulent restrictions.
If Omicron is milder then people with Omicron are going to interact more allowing it to spread more. That's an evolutionary advantage.
If a variant had occurred before Omicron with the same infectiousness but three times the fatality rate, it would have been equally widespread before we had time to work it out. It's highly unlikely that the evolutionary process you postulate exists in this case. The strong scientific consensus is that as disease viruses evolve, their virulence (in terms of damage to the host) is pretty well random.
Because evolution and viruses are not able to project into the future and imagine how their hosts will respond. The argument "if x then y, y is bad for reproduction, therefore not x" is definitely NOT how evolution works.
Philip is right to the extent that human intervention has clearly become a factor in viral evolution (cf Smallpox...). But the idea that a small difference in fatality rate, which shows up weeks after the initial viral spread, in something as rapidly reproducing as Covid, would make any difference, is unrealistic.
Its not at all unrealistic.
Lets spin the question on its head. We've had a lot of talks about Omicron being milder but that "half the risk with twice as many people ..." etc
But lets imagine that if instead it being half the risk it was considered to be twice as deadly.
Do you really think that if this virus were more spreadable and twice as deadly as Delta per person that we'd have no difference in restrictions? Had the reports been that this virus were twice as deadly as Delta per person then much tougher restrictions would be in place already.
Do you think if that were the case it would make any difference at all to the eventual prevalence of the variant (as opposed to slowing its spread) ? The restrictions, of course, would have a similar suppressive effect on the less virulent/infectious variants.
Yes I do. In that scenario we'd have had much tougher restrictions imposed on anyone in contact with that, red list would have been maintained. If it spread twice as fast and was twice as deadly per person then there would almost certainly be another lockdown.
Because its milder there's no lockdown despite its faster spread.
So evolution is working in real time. Humanity tolerates milder viruses.
A massive shot of hopium to prepare for the festive season...
Death rates in the Omicron wave ~2/3 down on previous COVID-19 waves throughout age groups. Results look solid. To what extent caused by Omicron less virulent and/or higher pop immunisation remains to be disentangled.
Given that proportionally Ventilator use is 1/5th of what it was in previous waves it would be pretty distressing if death rates were anything other than hugely reduced.
Why are you so sure about that?
This disease has lead times Initial Illness -> Possibly Hospitalisation -> Possibly Ventilation -> Possibly Death
Given the timescales that Omicron has been around and the previous time frames it took before Ventilation was needed we simply cannot talk accurately about Hospital and other numbers yet.
It may look like omicron results in fewer serious illnesses but I wouldn't want say that's definite yet.
A massive shot of hopium to prepare for the festive season...
Death rates in the Omicron wave ~2/3 down on previous COVID-19 waves throughout age groups. Results look solid. To what extent caused by Omicron less virulent and/or higher pop immunisation remains to be disentangled.
Given that proportionally Ventilator use is 1/5th of what it was in previous waves it would be pretty distressing if death rates were anything other than hugely reduced.
Why are you so sure about that?
This disease has lead times Initial Illness -> Possibly Hospitalisation -> Possibly Ventilation -> Possibly Death
Given the timescales that Omicron has been around and the previous time frames it took before Ventilation was needed we simply cannot talk accurately about Hospital and other numbers yet.
It may look like omicron results in fewer serious illnesses but I wouldn't want say that's definite yet.
There is reasonable reason to believe that Omicron will accelerate the time to serious disease over delta. There will still be lags, but probably shorter than previous waves.
???
Omicron results in earlier sickness because it seemingly attacks the throat first rather than the lungs. While that covers the initial illness it doesn't tell us anything about what happens if the body doesn't fight the illness and the illness progresses.
I think it does. Infectivity is quicker because the viral replication is quicker. Note also in SA (U know, I know) hospital times are reduced on previous waves.
Time will tell, but I'm pretty sure we are not facing the apocalypse.
Have I said we are facing the apocalypse - I haven't and I don't think we are.
What I'm not doing, however, as other people are, is use random data from elsewhere to paint a story that may not be accurate. I'm merely reporting on things I can provide valid links and science behind while others are posting theories that may or may not end up being true.
If Omicron is indeed milder than delta that’s great news. But not necessarily great enough to avoid ‘the apocalypse’
Do we yet know if you can have omicron and delta simultaneously? I’ve seen that suggested, not yet seen it refuted. That would be truly awful
Hopefully just a horrible twist that never arrives. As we end another long, grisly year, the idea of things getting even worse is nearly unbearable
I read the suggestion that the number of Omicron mutations resulted from co-infection and RNA transfer between the parent COVID strain (is it beta or Delta ethnicity? - don't recall) and the 229E endemic sniffle strain.
And that this has allowed Omicron to thrive in the upper lungs where it can replicate and from which it can reinfect quicker, but also makes it milder.
We've had, all through the pandemic saying there's no reason to presume an infection would get milder naturally, unless it confers an advantage. Here is the advantage, an evolutionary reason for mildness beyond your host being able to walk around.
Ignoring the real day to day for a moment, researchers are going to have so much material with which to look at prior pandemics here - they will see anew in the curves they have when and where new variants arise, when the milder strains arise. The advancement in understanding is going to be phenomenal.
Sure, this flavour is in fact milder, which is good, but I don't see a trade off. It *in fact* tends to replicate in the upper airways and leave the lungs alone but there is no particular reason that was more likely to happen than it getting more virulent everywhere.
That's February. Although I'd accept the tenor of that article, one example is specifically playing out before us as we speak.
Increasing raw R0 over delta is a hard strategy - it is very high already, and additional optimisation only takes the herd immunity level up a little and opens up a few hosts. There is not much evolutionary advantage. Omicron hasn't.
Immune escape is an easier strategy, it brings lots more hosts into play who, with some immune memory, render the disease milder (even if the virus is not innately milder). Omicron does this. Variants will rinse and repeat forever.
The other way to increase speed without increasing R0 is to shorten the generation time - have more R multiplier cycles per week. It looks very much like going upper respiratory is the way to do this, and as a by-product of that the disease becomes innately milder. This also very much appears to be an Omicron trick.
That is not general to all pandemics*, but I'd vouch that it is applicable to other respiratory pandemics and Omicron like waves are to be found elsewhere in the historical record.
(*Measles fighting lifelong vaccine protection is very high R0 now and I wonder if that has increased with time as the only route open to that virus).
For some reason, I keep on skimming the 'R0' in your post and think you're referring to a register in some ARM code ...
What yesterday shows is that a large proportion of natural Conservatives think Boris needs at least a kick up the arse. A free shot. The Bishop Brennan By-election.
It's not as if the Government is going to fall today, is it?
As I told my MP the other night, my own take is that Boris has failed to grow into the role of being PM. He has remained the Prince Hal of Henry IV Part 1 - happy to faff around with Falstaff and Pistol and Doll Tearsheet. He has not become the steely King Henry V, distancing himself with "I know thee not, old man...." of Part 2.
I'd like to think that without Covid - nationally and personally - Boris would have made some serious steps towards a coherent levelling up. He might yet get lucky - with the UK getting through Omicron far better than mainland Europe. But I think it unlikely - France for example is boosting a million a day, well ahead of us. So it probably means 2022 is when we do have a new PM, who looks more like she/he belongs in Number 10. Or at least makes the effort to seem like they are trying to grow into the role.
I believe it was actually Henry IV who said that to Falstaff, not Henry V
No, you are wrong.
He's right. Henry IV is Hal's dad, the Bolingbroke of Richard II.
He dies a couple of scenes before the line is said. It's said by Prince Hal / Henry V
Yes, I know (see the other Hal quote in my previous reply). I just misread badly misread HYUFD's comment.
Well not according to this version anyway, even if it is wrong
That scene is the tragic crux of the entire play (I prefer interpretations which have the relationship between Hal and Falstaff as genuinely affectionate). The price of kingship is a distancing from human relationships.
North Shropshire is worse for Boris Johnson than either Orpington in 1962 or Eastbourne in 1990 – both of which seriously wounded previously unassailable Tory premiers.
North Shropshire is worse for Boris Johnson than either Orpington in 1962 or Eastbourne in 1990 – both of which seriously wounded previously unassailable Tory premiers.
From a Lab prospective worst vote total since 1923 & worst vote share ever!
Well done SKS
At this point I have to assume you're just being a prat on purpose, there is no other logical explanation
The problem you have, is that if the Lib Dems win another (say) 40 seats in wealthy parts of Southern England from the Tories based on a manifesto of soft right economics and centrism on social issues , and then find themselves as kingmakers in a hung Parliament, it's not going to be super easy to figure out how they then govern in concert with a Labour party that's soft left on economics, and straining much further leftwards on social issues. Especially as the new LD cohort will be much, much bigger than the current incumbents.
In short, we'll be right back to 2010, and Clegg's decision to go into coalition with Cameron rather than Brown wasn't some massive accident - it made total sense at the time, and the Conservatives today are probably about as close to Davey's Liberals as Cameron's were (especially if they lose a bunch of Red Wall seats to Labour along the way). Obviously that coalition won't happen again, but it won't be automatic that they sign any deal with your lot either.
My biggest fear after this morning's result is that the Conservatives decide, now Brexit is exhausted as an issue, that the "war on woke" will be their wedge issue from now on.
I don't buy "Brexit is dead as an issue".
In NS, food and farming is big - and it will be years before changes to support schemes work through.
In the meantime industry bodies are howling for Government Money more than ever.
At the moment it is all about a shortfall of a couple of percent in the pig slaughter capacity. And seasonal labour for butchers.
Ag Min has currently gone into hiding.
Yes, and there were reports from North Shropshire that Leave-voting farmers were starting to worry about continued subsidies. Make Brexit Work might help see Starmer home.
As somebody from that general area, I think the "farming" aspect has been a little bit over stated. Sure it definitely is farming land, but place like Market Drayton have over the past few years grown significantly, with new builds. Its isn't "full of farmers" these days.
It houses a big influx of people that commute to Telford to work big multi-national companies based there and the Mueller Factory in the town (which yes is dependent on local milk production, but Bob going to work in that factory isn't worrying about the details EU vs UK subsidies for agricultural production).
Bob from the Factory is perhaps less likely to be a Tory.
It would be very hard to see the Tories losing the next general election if they hadn't first suffered some bad by-election defeats. So some of the necessary conditions for such a defeat are being put in place.
A long way to go still, and the position is still recoverable.
How?
If the Tories could simply stop inflicting damage on themselves it would be a good start.
Johnson needs to find a capable person to run his government for him, or else the Tories need to find a different PM who can.
The opposition is not so formidable that the government cannot recover. But someone in government has to act.
Johnson is incapable of personal development. He cannot improve.
Johnson doesn't need to change. He can continue as an erratic, but charming, frontman, provided he has someone to do the real work in the background. Unlike most leaders I don't get the impression that Johnson particularly cares about being told what to do, as long as it ends up being popular and he can claim the credit for it.
Or else the Tory party could depose Johnson.
Both options would be an improvement on the status quo.
In other words, Johnson’s own judgement is so poor, his only remaining purpose is to be a puppet.
Anyone spotted any decent puppeteers recently? Michael Gove?
Is Philip going to have to explain to us why this is actually a good thing? Defeated again?
I don't believe any gossip coming out of the negotiations, we keep getting these reports time and again.
Lets wait and see what the outcome of these negotiations eventually is.
I've already said it wouldn't surprise me if the outcome is that the EU gets some role for the ECJ and we get everything else we've demanded, as the EU seem to have become obsessed with the ECJ to all else. A bit like how Frost outmanoeuvred Barnier on fish - Barnier became obsessed with fish to the exclusion of all else allowing him to get all the other issues resolved in our favour.
My biggest fear after this morning's result is that the Conservatives decide, now Brexit is exhausted as an issue, that the "war on woke" will be their wedge issue from now on.
I don't buy "Brexit is dead as an issue".
In NS, food and farming is big - and it will be years before changes to support schemes work through.
In the meantime industry bodies are howling for Government Money more than ever.
At the moment it is all about a shortfall of a couple of percent in the pig slaughter capacity. And seasonal labour for butchers.
Ag Min has currently gone into hiding.
Yes, and there were reports from North Shropshire that Leave-voting farmers were starting to worry about continued subsidies. Make Brexit Work might help see Starmer home.
As somebody from that general area, I think the "farming" aspect has been a little bit over stated. Sure it definitely is farming land, but place like Market Drayton have over the past few years grown significantly, with new builds. Its isn't "full of farmers" these days.
It houses a big influx of people that commute to Telford to work big multi-national companies based there and the Mueller Factory in the town (which yes is dependent on local milk production, but Bob going to work in that factory isn't worrying about the details EU vs UK subsidies for agricultural production).
Bob from the Factory is perhaps less likely to be a Tory.
I don't know about that. In general the people in the region are conservative with a small c. And places like Wem are still stuck in a time warp. But Market Drayton is definitely not solely farmer country-bumpkin town these days. Mueller employs a huge proportion and as I say, then a big bulk of people commute to Telford and Stoke. There are big housing estates that join into a new bypass that will get you into Telford in 20 mins.
Who are these 12,032 people who (despite all the evidence over the past few months to the contrary) still think Johnson's government is the right answer to our problems?
One of them is presumably the candidate ?
No, since the address on the ballot paper is in Birmingham, so he isn’t registered to vote in the constituency.
That is a fantastically written article and explains well both why I liked Boris and why I want him out ASAP. This sums it up:
Those who were inspired by his manifesto of a “liberal Conservative” (his words) were most likely to back him for leader – and most likely to rebel against him on Tuesday. Not because they’re suddenly against him but because they have the courage of his (old) convictions.
Who could have possibly imagined that unscrupulous nationalist politicians might not act in a liberal manner?
Indeed. People shouldn't kid themselves. Just as Johnson used Brexit as a vehicle to gain power, the Tory Party and Leavers used him as a vehicle for what they wanted, a Con election win and the UK taken out of the EU. To the extent there was ideology in the mix it was the ideology of nationalist populism. He was (is) Mr Brexit - such was his USP- and Brexit was (is) a nationalist populist project. It made rational sense to support him to deliver that project and to smash Corbyn. Anybody who supported him for other reasons - eg and esp thinking he was some sort of 'liberal one nation' Conservative - needs to take a look in the mirror because it's not only obvious now they were being conned it was obvious then.
He was (is) Mr anti anti-Semitic party.
Sure - his 2019 landslide was built not on Getting Brexit Done but a national revulsion for antisemitism.
How's the weather today in that lovely parallel Britain you live in? Warm and sunny, I bet.
I find your disbelief that there could possibly be a national revulsion towards antisemitism, extremely telling.
No10 thinking to put PM in a vaccine centre this AM after devastating Shropshire loss is clearly that Boris is weak and needs to play to his apparent strengths - ie success of vaccine programme. But is he exhausting the political dividends of that resource, given new restrictions https://twitter.com/juliamacfarlane/status/1471831654335488003
It would be very hard to see the Tories losing the next general election if they hadn't first suffered some bad by-election defeats. So some of the necessary conditions for such a defeat are being put in place.
A long way to go still, and the position is still recoverable.
How?
If the Tories could simply stop inflicting damage on themselves it would be a good start.
Johnson needs to find a capable person to run his government for him, or else the Tories need to find a different PM who can.
The opposition is not so formidable that the government cannot recover. But someone in government has to act.
Johnson is incapable of personal development. He cannot improve.
Johnson doesn't need to change. He can continue as an erratic, but charming, frontman, provided he has someone to do the real work in the background. Unlike most leaders I don't get the impression that Johnson particularly cares about being told what to do, as long as it ends up being popular and he can claim the credit for it.
Or else the Tory party could depose Johnson.
Both options would be an improvement on the status quo.
In other words, Johnson’s own judgement is so poor, his only remaining purpose is to be a puppet.
Anyone spotted any decent puppeteers recently?
That's the problem. And the other problem is that, despite being a democracy, we expect political parties - and by extension, the Government when in office - to be ruled by the Fuehrerprinzip.
In any case, there isn't really a Borisist cabal to pull the strings.
No10 thinking to put PM in a vaccine centre this AM after devastating Shropshire loss is clearly that Boris is weak and needs to play to his apparent strengths - ie success of vaccine programme. But is he exhausting the political dividends of that resource, given new restrictions https://twitter.com/juliamacfarlane/status/1471831654335488003
He appears never to leave vaccine centres. Given his lax standards on social distancing and mask usage, he surely putting himself in quite a lot of danger for catching the big O.
BREAKING: Sinopharm, Johnson & Johnson and the Sputnik Covid-19 vaccines produce little or no antibodies against omicron, a new study finds trib.al/vwS7HmH
Yes, for all the shit it gets AZ still does okay against big Omi. J&J really looks marginal at this point and the Chinese and Russian efforts look like shite on a stick that they're selling as Magnums.
My guess is that J&J is actually fine, but should always have been delivered as two doses, given that it is very similar to AZ.
Indeed, around 20m people in Europe have got J&J as their only vaccine and are only eligible for one booster dose, I really hope the EMA changes the guidance and makes them eligible for two doses of Pfizer/Moderna.
I got an answer to your question from yesterday btw, I'm going to paraphrase because his answer was really technical and full of scientific and statistical jargon (bloody scientists!).
For the immunity groups of three doses of vaccine or higher - immunity is expected to be in the very high 90s in terms of reducing severe disease. This also includes people with an Alpha or Delta infection within the last 12 months. If 1000 people with three doses or previous infection were exposed to Omicron his model suggests 2 or 3 would present severe symptoms.
For two doses - by the same measure it's expected to be in the low 60s or high 50s. If a 1000 two dose people got exposed to Omicron he expects ~20 would get severe symptoms.
For single dose - no significant reduction, AZ recipients may have marginally reduced severity.
For the "super immune" which he classes as people with at least one dose of AZ/Pfizer and an infection within the last twelve months Omicron presents little to no danger, fewer than 1/1000 people will develop severe symptoms.
I've asked him for rough estimates of how the UK population breaks down into the categories so hopefully we'll get an update on that.
Estimates, of course, but that's very interesting - & thanks for sharing. Delighted to learn that I'm probably "super immune".
It's only fair and right that somebody who gets a bad dose of this emerges with better protection than somebody who's just trooped off a couple of times and had a teeny little needle in the arm. If that weren't the case I'd be having a word with the big man.
This is for the week ending 11th December so if out of date already for latest trends.
However it reports the prevalence in England as 1 in 60, unchanged from the week before. (up very slightly if you look at the raw data) which is an indadaction that the rise in reported cases observed that week, will have been mostly more the old maxim, more testing revels more cases. which is not to say that the subsequent rise is not Omicron,
Former Tory MSP calls for Unionist alliance to 'defeat SNP' at next Holyrood election
EXCLUSIVE: Adam Tomkins said a deal between the three pro-UK parties would "eventually" lead to the SNP losing power
Professor Adam Tomkins said Scottish Labour, the LibDems and his own party should field one candidate in first-past-the-post races.
Tomkins, who stood down as a Glasgow MSP in May, said the three-versus-one contests had to change.
He told the Record: “There needs to be a restructuring in Scottish politics that recognises the fact that the fundamental division is no longer Left-Right, it is Yes-No.”
He added: “The Yes side are united and the No side are divided, which is the only reason the SNP are still in power.”
Is Philip going to have to explain to us why this is actually a good thing? Defeated again?
I don't believe any gossip coming out of the negotiations, we keep getting these reports time and again.
Lets wait and see what the outcome of these negotiations eventually is.
I've already said it wouldn't surprise me if the outcome is that the EU gets some role for the ECJ and we get everything else we've demanded, as the EU seem to have become obsessed with the ECJ to all else. A bit like how Frost outmanoeuvred Barnier on fish - Barnier became obsessed with fish to the exclusion of all else allowing him to get all the other issues resolved in our favour.
alt-history.com is where you need to take this sort of stuff.
This is for the week ending 11th December so if out of date already for latest trends.
However it reports the prevalence in England as 1 in 60, unchanged from the week before. (up very slightly if you look at the raw data) which is an indadaction that the rise in reported cases observed that week, will have been mostly more the old maxim, more testing revels more cases. which is not to say that the subsequent rise is not Omicron,
Sort of buggers the stupid HSA model....as they were working on the premise that it has already had a load of doublings of big O by then.
Is Philip going to have to explain to us why this is actually a good thing? Defeated again?
I don't believe any gossip coming out of the negotiations, we keep getting these reports time and again.
Lets wait and see what the outcome of these negotiations eventually is.
I've already said it wouldn't surprise me if the outcome is that the EU gets some role for the ECJ and we get everything else we've demanded, as the EU seem to have become obsessed with the ECJ to all else. A bit like how Frost outmanoeuvred Barnier on fish - Barnier became obsessed with fish to the exclusion of all else allowing him to get all the other issues resolved in our favour.
alt-history.com is where you need to take this sort of stuff.
I said that to you ages ago when you tried to get me to pin my colours on ECJ being the be all and end all didn't I?
It would be very hard to see the Tories losing the next general election if they hadn't first suffered some bad by-election defeats. So some of the necessary conditions for such a defeat are being put in place.
A long way to go still, and the position is still recoverable.
How?
If the Tories could simply stop inflicting damage on themselves it would be a good start.
Johnson needs to find a capable person to run his government for him, or else the Tories need to find a different PM who can.
The opposition is not so formidable that the government cannot recover. But someone in government has to act.
Johnson is incapable of personal development. He cannot improve.
Johnson doesn't need to change. He can continue as an erratic, but charming, frontman, provided he has someone to do the real work in the background. Unlike most leaders I don't get the impression that Johnson particularly cares about being told what to do, as long as it ends up being popular and he can claim the credit for it.
Or else the Tory party could depose Johnson.
Both options would be an improvement on the status quo.
In other words, Johnson’s own judgement is so poor, his only remaining purpose is to be a puppet.
Anyone spotted any decent puppeteers recently?
That's the problem. And the other problem is that, despite being a democracy, we expect political parties - and by extension, the Government when in office - to be ruled by the Fuehrerprinzip.
In any case, there isn't really a Borisist cabal to pull the strings.
Is Philip going to have to explain to us why this is actually a good thing? Defeated again?
I don't believe any gossip coming out of the negotiations, we keep getting these reports time and again.
Lets wait and see what the outcome of these negotiations eventually is.
I've already said it wouldn't surprise me if the outcome is that the EU gets some role for the ECJ and we get everything else we've demanded, as the EU seem to have become obsessed with the ECJ to all else. A bit like how Frost outmanoeuvred Barnier on fish - Barnier became obsessed with fish to the exclusion of all else allowing him to get all the other issues resolved in our favour.
My take on that one is that the discussions afaics are around a role for the ECJ reduced from the one in the current version of the NIP.
No idea how it will play out.
Fish license negotiations are an interesting comparison. French take is that by all their tactics and threats of unlawful interventions and shouting and tantrums they have obtained 93% of the licenses "they are entitled to", because UK only responds to threats. UK say that after sticking to the terms of FTA and umpteen deadline extensions evidence has been forthcoming in 93% of cases from a French Gov who spent the last year trying to drive a coach and fours through the FTA they ratified.
FBPE say whatever is anti-UK because they still sting that we voted for something else.
To my jaundiced eye, one of the essentials for the EuCo coming out of any negotiations aiui is that they need, as part of the exit, ritually to be able to (sorry) masturbate their self-image of presumed ethical superiority to a suitable climax. So Lord Frost needs to supply a large collection of fig leaves and seeming concessions.
Or to paraphrase a Terry Waite-ism, it is essential after a negotiation to leave a door through which you can exit gracefully together.
Since I'm expecting a climbdown from Brussels, I also expect there to be a face-saving figleaf they can point to. Some supposed role for the ECJ, but completely neutered and with Britain maintaining the right to invoke Article 16 if the ECJ does get involved (so its there but not there) is quite possible I think.
There are far more substantive issues to address. It wouldn't surprise me if the ECJ being the hill they're prepared to die on, means that the EU gives ground on every other issue while keeping a tokenistic role for the ECJ. Thus winning that battle but losing the war.
A bit like Barnier getting completely obsessed over fish at the end of the TCA negotiations and Frost making out like a bandit on all the important issues like governance, divergence etc
Lets see what the final outcome of these negotiations are to see if I'm right, but I have confidence in Frost. He seems extremely competent.
The US opioid pushers might face getting sued for their billions after all. Judge rules their liability shield can't survive the bankruptcy (which might have interesting implications down the line). https://twitter.com/DonutShorts/status/1471689035651465220
The German health minister, Karl Lauterbach, said he expects the Omicron variant to lead to a “massive fifth wave” of the pandemic.
Lauterbach, a former epidemiology professor, said during a visit to the Lower Saxony region that Germany must prepare for a challenge “that we have never seen in this form before,” reports Reuters.
That is a fantastically written article and explains well both why I liked Boris and why I want him out ASAP. This sums it up:
Those who were inspired by his manifesto of a “liberal Conservative” (his words) were most likely to back him for leader – and most likely to rebel against him on Tuesday. Not because they’re suddenly against him but because they have the courage of his (old) convictions.
Who could have possibly imagined that unscrupulous nationalist politicians might not act in a liberal manner?
Indeed. People shouldn't kid themselves. Just as Johnson used Brexit as a vehicle to gain power, the Tory Party and Leavers used him as a vehicle for what they wanted, a Con election win and the UK taken out of the EU. To the extent there was ideology in the mix it was the ideology of nationalist populism. He was (is) Mr Brexit - such was his USP- and Brexit was (is) a nationalist populist project. It made rational sense to support him to deliver that project and to smash Corbyn. Anybody who supported him for other reasons - eg and esp thinking he was some sort of 'liberal one nation' Conservative - needs to take a look in the mirror because it's not only obvious now they were being conned it was obvious then.
He was (is) Mr anti anti-Semitic party.
Sure - his 2019 landslide was built not on Getting Brexit Done but a national revulsion for antisemitism.
How's the weather in that lovely parallel world you live in? Warm and sunny, I bet.
Anti-Semitism obviously played a part but the reality is that Johnson beat the most unpopular Labour leader ever, with a party that had no message and no coherent policy platform and with other parties that spent more time attacking each other than the Tories.
Are we seeing the fall of Boris Johnson or just what happens when he goes up against opposition that isn't unpopular?
Bit of both. He's imploding under his own steam and SKS is positioning Labour skillfully to benefit.
Since I'm expecting a climbdown from Brussels, I also expect there to be a face-saving figleaf they can point to. Some supposed role for the ECJ, but completely neutered and with Britain maintaining the right to invoke Article 16 if the ECJ does get involved (so its there but not there) is quite possible I think.
There are far more substantive issues to address. It wouldn't surprise me if the ECJ being the hill they're prepared to die on, means that the EU gives ground on every other issue while keeping a tokenistic role for the ECJ. Thus winning that battle but losing the war.
A bit like Barnier getting completely obsessed over fish at the end of the TCA negotiations and Frost making out like a bandit on all the important issues like governance, divergence etc
Lets see what the final outcome of these negotiations are to see if I'm right, but I have confidence in Frost. He seems extremely competent.
Who is suggesting that anyone give up the right to invoke Article 16, if anyone?
Simon Coveney (and Jo Biden) were I thought looking for a something undefined from the UK on that.
I see the narrative has moved on from "terrible for Labour" to "why do the Lib Dems even exist?"
But, why do the LibDems even exist is a good question.
They are the political equivalent of an appendix, an evolutionary hold-over with no obvious biological function.
When there is a dull pain in the body politic, the appendix becomes inflamed and full of pus.
Sure, we then get appendicitis, or stunning LibDem by-elections victories.
But, the final result is that either the inflammation dies away, or there is an appendectomy.
And the LibDems return to being a narrow and forgotten pouch that projects out from the colon. Or discarded in the surgical bin for human waste.
The Lib Dems are that necessary party of localism, internationalism and pro-business. Also a party well represented geographically and across the age ranges and other demographics. Certainly a minority party, but gets significant support electorally and particularly when fairer voting systems are used.
I thought it would be a generation to recover from 2015, but student fees aside, I think the Coalition clearly was a golden period of good government. We see since what a shit-show Conservative solo rule has been like. Lib Dems did sterling work controlling their wing nuts.
Comments
If the two-dose lot are still at that much risk, than it also confirms that countries which are behind on triple-jabbing the most vulnerable (let alone those that haven't even got to one or two doses) are going to be in big trouble. The world, including highly developed countries such as the US and Germany, could well be in for a very rough time indeed over the next few weeks. Fortunately from our point of view, it looks as though in the UK we should escape the worst of it.
And I got a bit worried later, when NHS kept sending me letters saying 'our records show you have not had the booster, you should go and get one'.
I ended up downloading the NHS app to check my actual status.
Boris might like to read on: "How ill white hairs become a fool and jester!".....
I don't really see what people find so offensive about Ed Davey. I also think don't think Tim Farron was so bad in hindsight even though it was Brexit which rejuvenated LD fortunes.
Delighted to learn that I'm probably "super immune".
Only rain looks likely to scupper a 5-0 whitewash.
If i am not on the system, happy to go for a 4th, can't be too careful :-)
I think we (I) may be at cross purposes, as I misread him. Apologies.
Guido Fawkes
@GuidoFawkes
* Simon Case's office had 2 parties last December according to a Guido source who attended both gatherings. One was pre-planned and one was impromptu. The Cabinet Secretary "popped his head" a few times.
Boris only won by telling the biggest whoppers in political history with not a clue how to deliver. Absolutely anyone can do same thing, but don’t, they hold back and do politics differently, because
A) they don’t want to be the biggest chump in political history when found out
B destroy for a generation the electoral credibility a political party’s chances they love and care about
How do I know this as fact? Just look at PB. How many here not only in the party a long time but are actually this country’s most thoughtful Natural Conservatives, but resigned when this Boris bonfire of lying and vanity madness came along, now actively helping other parties?
Although people for other parties see this clearly and laughing arse off at Tories posting here stuck in denial how bad this is, it’s not all round funny, it’s still sad and wrong really. Philip Hammond and many others for example, senior and lay in the party, this nations conservative backbone, abused and butchered and cremated on this bonfire of vanity. 😞
Just pure Yes, Minister frankly.
I don't know why, it may just be they have run out at that particular centre.
As it happens on the app everything was as it should be.
No idea why they waste postage on letters to peeps they know are boosted. The last one arrived last week - 5 weeks after the actual boost.
In NS, food and farming is big - and it will be years before changes to support schemes work through.
In the meantime industry bodies are howling for Government Money more than ever.
At the moment it is all about a shortfall of a couple of percent in the pig slaughter capacity. And seasonal labour for butchers.
Ag Min has currently gone into hiding.
Sadly due to injury AJ and Kai have had to withdraw from Strictly and won’t compete in tomorrow’s Final. We want to thank them for 13 incredible weeks on the show and the pure joy they brought to the dance floor every week.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/strictlycomedancing/entries/ddacd847-3dff-433d-9776-0b0857bfbdd5
'The UK has one of the highest COVID death figures in the world'.
(withdrew "verbatim")
From a Lab prospective worst vote total since 1923 & worst vote share ever!
Well done SKS
I just misread badly misread HYUFD's comment.
Ah, the Jeremy Corbyn approach
One rule etc.
Lets spin the question on its head. We've had a lot of talks about Omicron being milder but that "half the risk with twice as many people ..." etc
But lets imagine that if instead it being half the risk it was considered to be twice as deadly.
Do you really think that if this virus were more spreadable and twice as deadly as Delta per person that we'd have no difference in restrictions? Had the reports been that this virus were twice as deadly as Delta per person then much tougher restrictions would be in place already.
Increasing raw R0 over delta is a hard strategy - it is very high already, and additional optimisation only takes the herd immunity level up a little and opens up a few hosts. There is not much evolutionary advantage. Omicron hasn't.
Immune escape is an easier strategy, it brings lots more hosts into play who, with some immune memory, render the disease milder (even if the virus is not innately milder). Omicron does this. Variants will rinse and repeat forever.
The other way to increase speed without increasing R0 is to shorten the generation time - have more R multiplier cycles per week. It looks very much like going upper respiratory is the way to do this, and as a by-product of that the disease becomes innately milder. This also very much appears to be an Omicron trick.
That is not general to all pandemics*, but I'd vouch that it is applicable to other respiratory pandemics and Omicron like waves are to be found elsewhere in the historical record.
(*Measles fighting lifelong vaccine protection is very high R0 now and I wonder if that has increased with time as the only route open to that virus).
I think the Tories are on their slow way down now, will they lose the next election? Possibly - but they're on their way to opposition now
FALSTAFF
My king! my Jove! I speak to thee, my heart!
KING HENRY IV
I know thee not, old man: fall to thy prayers;
http://shakespeare.mit.edu/2henryiv/2henryiv.5.5.html
Just stupid arrogance really. This will do nothing to help, please Johnson, continue.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-bad-is-north-shropshire-by-historic-standards-
Let's just hope that when he and his team have found the relevant excuses (sorry, concluded their impartial investigation) that they are not put off having a party to celebrate (sorry, a business gathering essential to motivate supremely hard working chaps that may involve a bit of booze and some party games, and at premises exempt from the law anyway).
Henry IV dies at the end of this earlier scene
http://shakespeare.mit.edu/2henryiv/2henryiv.4.5.html
And in this scene in between, Henry V has lines. We can't have a IV and V simultaneously
http://shakespeare.mit.edu/2henryiv/2henryiv.5.2.html
I do. I will.
But we have heard the chimes at midnight
I know thee not OLD man
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nFHhXrXWzY
Oh no, not this again
The restrictions, of course, would have a similar suppressive effect on the less virulent/infectious variants.
https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1471827922772234248?s=20
Might be why:
Chaos around Nicola Sturgeon’s new Covid curbs as:
Guidance for sectors still hasn’t been published
Businesses given mixed messages over when the new rules come into force
Hospitality firms say £100m funding package is ‘like giving a teenager 50p pocket money’.
https://twitter.com/Mike_Blackley/status/1471392904434360322?s=20
It houses a big influx of people that commute to Telford to work big multi-national companies based there and the Mueller Factory in the town (which yes is dependent on local milk production, but Bob going to work in that factory isn't worrying about the details EU vs UK subsidies for agricultural production).
Along with you, of course.
Is Philip going to have to explain to us why this is actually a good thing? Defeated again?
How's the weather today in that lovely parallel Britain you live in? Warm and sunny, I bet.
https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1471828197889224705?s=20
Are we seeing the fall of Boris Johnson or just what happens when he goes up against opposition that isn't unpopular?
Because its milder there's no lockdown despite its faster spread.
So evolution is working in real time. Humanity tolerates milder viruses.
That scene is the tragic crux of the entire play (I prefer interpretations which have the relationship between Hal and Falstaff as genuinely affectionate). The price of kingship is a distancing from human relationships.
Full interview - hear the PM accuse me of “breaking the golden rule” - answers on a postcard….
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1471827747240566785?s=20
In short, we'll be right back to 2010, and Clegg's decision to go into coalition with Cameron rather than Brown wasn't some massive accident - it made total sense at the time, and the Conservatives today are probably about as close to Davey's Liberals as Cameron's were (especially if they lose a bunch of Red Wall seats to Labour along the way). Obviously that coalition won't happen again, but it won't be automatic that they sign any deal with your lot either.
Anyone spotted any decent puppeteers recently? Michael Gove?
Lets wait and see what the outcome of these negotiations eventually is.
I've already said it wouldn't surprise me if the outcome is that the EU gets some role for the ECJ and we get everything else we've demanded, as the EU seem to have become obsessed with the ECJ to all else. A bit like how Frost outmanoeuvred Barnier on fish - Barnier became obsessed with fish to the exclusion of all else allowing him to get all the other issues resolved in our favour.
https://twitter.com/juliamacfarlane/status/1471831654335488003
In any case, there isn't really a Borisist cabal to pull the strings.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/17december2021
This is for the week ending 11th December so if out of date already for latest trends.
However it reports the prevalence in England as 1 in 60, unchanged from the week before. (up very slightly if you look at the raw data) which is an indadaction that the rise in reported cases observed that week, will have been mostly more the old maxim, more testing revels more cases. which is not to say that the subsequent rise is not Omicron,
EXCLUSIVE: Adam Tomkins said a deal between the three pro-UK parties would "eventually" lead to the SNP losing power
Professor Adam Tomkins said Scottish Labour, the LibDems and his own party should field one candidate in first-past-the-post races.
Tomkins, who stood down as a Glasgow MSP in May, said the three-versus-one contests had to change.
He told the Record: “There needs to be a restructuring in Scottish politics that recognises the fact that the fundamental division is no longer Left-Right, it is Yes-No.”
He added: “The Yes side are united and the No side are divided, which is the only reason the SNP are still in power.”
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/former-tory-msp-calls-unionist-25702925
No idea how it will play out.
Fish license negotiations are an interesting comparison. French take is that by all their tactics and threats of unlawful interventions and shouting and tantrums they have obtained 93% of the licenses "they are entitled to", because UK only responds to threats. UK say that after sticking to the terms of FTA and umpteen deadline extensions evidence has been forthcoming in 93% of cases from a French Gov who spent the last year trying to drive a coach and fours through the FTA they ratified.
FBPE say whatever is anti-UK because they still sting that we voted for something else.
To my jaundiced eye, one of the essentials for the EuCo coming out of any negotiations aiui is that they need, as part of the exit, ritually to be able to (sorry) masturbate their self-image of presumed ethical superiority to a suitable climax. So Lord Frost needs to supply a large collection of fig leaves and seeming concessions.
Or to paraphrase a Terry Waite-ism, it is essential after a negotiation to leave a door through which you can exit gracefully together.
Since I'm expecting a climbdown from Brussels, I also expect there to be a face-saving figleaf they can point to. Some supposed role for the ECJ, but completely neutered and with Britain maintaining the right to invoke Article 16 if the ECJ does get involved (so its there but not there) is quite possible I think.
There are far more substantive issues to address. It wouldn't surprise me if the ECJ being the hill they're prepared to die on, means that the EU gives ground on every other issue while keeping a tokenistic role for the ECJ. Thus winning that battle but losing the war.
A bit like Barnier getting completely obsessed over fish at the end of the TCA negotiations and Frost making out like a bandit on all the important issues like governance, divergence etc
Lets see what the final outcome of these negotiations are to see if I'm right, but I have confidence in Frost. He seems extremely competent.
Judge rules their liability shield can't survive the bankruptcy (which might have interesting implications down the line).
https://twitter.com/DonutShorts/status/1471689035651465220
Lauterbach, a former epidemiology professor, said during a visit to the Lower Saxony region that Germany must prepare for a challenge “that we have never seen in this form before,” reports Reuters.
Simon Coveney (and Jo Biden) were I thought looking for a something undefined from the UK on that.
I thought it would be a generation to recover from 2015, but student fees aside, I think the Coalition clearly was a golden period of good government. We see since what a shit-show Conservative solo rule has been like. Lib Dems did sterling work controlling their wing nuts.