Goodness me, Keir Starmer in tune with the public and not @Philip_Thompson!?! I am shocked!
I don't think I'm in tune with the public, I think I'm cleverer than the public.
The public is engaging in mass hysteria and Starmer and Boris are feeding into it rather than being leaders. Shame on them both.
Between you and Chris, PB is so lucky to have not one, but two, of the smartest people in the room.
I don't think I'm the smartest in the room, but I think I am smarter than the average Joe Public, and I would say that of almost everyone on this site too.
If I was to pick the smartest person in the room on all this then I'd have to nominate @MaxPB
Hands up all those who think Phil is "smarter than almost everyone on this site too".
Come on don't be shy...a show of hands...come on...
That's not what I said, I said that almost everyone on this site is smarter than Joe Public. 🤦♂️
Goodness me, Keir Starmer in tune with the public and not @Philip_Thompson!?! I am shocked!
I don't think I'm in tune with the public, I think I'm cleverer than the public.
The public is engaging in mass hysteria and Starmer and Boris are feeding into it rather than being leaders. Shame on them both.
Between you and Chris, PB is so lucky to have not one, but two, of the smartest people in the room.
I don't think I'm the smartest in the room, but I think I am smarter than the average Joe Public, and I would say that of almost everyone on this site too.
If I was to pick the smartest person in the room on all this then I'd have to nominate @MaxPB
Hands up all those who think Phil is "smarter than almost everyone on this site too".
Come on don't be shy...a show of hands...come on...
How long is it likely to be before we finally know how dangerous/mild the new variant is?
A couple of months, because remember we also have a load of people with delta and we don't really know who has what, so lots of overlapping data. You won't be able to easily separate out all the moving pieces of delta, omicron, vaccine, booster, age, prior infection etc.
Thanks. Didn't realise it would be as long as that.
It won’t be tha long. A few weeks, possibly as soon as jan the 1st well have a decent idea, especially if it’s anything like as bad as delta.
Goodness me, Keir Starmer in tune with the public and not @Philip_Thompson!?! I am shocked!
I don't think I'm in tune with the public, I think I'm cleverer than the public.
The public is engaging in mass hysteria and Starmer and Boris are feeding into it rather than being leaders. Shame on them both.
Between you and Chris, PB is so lucky to have not one, but two, of the smartest people in the room.
I don't think I'm the smartest in the room, but I think I am smarter than the average Joe Public, and I would say that of almost everyone on this site too.
If I was to pick the smartest person in the room on all this then I'd have to nominate @MaxPB
Hands up all those who think Phil is "smarter than almost everyone on this site too".
Come on don't be shy...a show of hands...come on...
It's not particularly hard to be more intelligent than the 'average Joe'. They have an IQ of 100, after all.
Not true - I'd count myself as a supporter, despite also thinking he's been entirely useless for months. I'd currently not employ his corpse as a doorstop.
However.. if he can be arsed to get out of bed one morning then he's still a capable poitician.
I'm intrigued. Whose corpse would you employ as a doorstop?
Big money in that you know. Ecorpsefordoorstops.com does a roaring trade. Mummy's are the top sellers (as they last) and most subject to fakery too.
There is an American friend of mine who seriously tried to source a mummy on the black market so he could source a Victorian-style mummy unwrapping party 😂
Apparently there is a specific piece of US legislation that bans the purchase of mummies…
(He was inspired because I had borrowed a mummy from a museum in Mansfield and he happened to be around when it was shipped to my place in London)
What an utterly creepy piece of shit. Why would you be friends with someone like that?
That's not creepy. The archeology of dead bodies is fascinating.
In Victorian times, they used to grind mummies up and use them as medicine. That's creepy.
Found out today that our work Xmas do has joined the enormously long list of such events up and down the country to have fallen prey to the Omicronpanic.
There have been some murmurings about rescheduling at a later date. Would anyone else like to hazard a guess as to what proportion of delayed 2021 Christmas parties are ultimately going to go ahead? As near to 0% as makes no difference would be mine.
The hospitality, entertainment and cultural sectors must all be in absolute despair. Wouldn't be surprised if they were secretly praying for yet another lockdown, just to try to force Sunak to open his wallet again.
How long is it likely to be before we finally know how dangerous/mild the new variant is?
A couple of months, because remember we also have a load of people with delta and we don't really know who has what, so lots of overlapping data. You won't be able to easily separate out all the moving pieces of delta, omicron, vaccine, booster, age, prior infection etc.
I think that given the low levels of other in SA we should get a good picture in a fortnight - maybe a week longer if Christmas messes up SA reporting lag. .
But then you have to consider they had big waves of Beta and Delta, HIV, younger population etc etc etc. I think we will get a finger in the air estimate, but it takes time to start being able to isolate the variables to be able to put a proper number on it. 2 months is still too soon really.
Goodness me, Keir Starmer in tune with the public and not @Philip_Thompson!?! I am shocked!
I don't think I'm in tune with the public, I think I'm cleverer than the public.
The public is engaging in mass hysteria and Starmer and Boris are feeding into it rather than being leaders. Shame on them both.
Between you and Chris, PB is so lucky to have not one, but two, of the smartest people in the room.
I don't think I'm the smartest in the room, but I think I am smarter than the average Joe Public, and I would say that of almost everyone on this site too.
If I was to pick the smartest person in the room on all this then I'd have to nominate @MaxPB
Hands up all those who think Phil is "smarter than almost everyone on this site too".
Come on don't be shy...a show of hands...come on...
That's not what I said, I said that almost everyone on this site is smarter than Joe Public. 🤦♂️
Well in that case I've just proved you wrong- so there!
I think the big worry has to be China. At least if we take them at their word, very low natural immunity. And a vaccine that might be barely effective at all against omicron, a variant that is seemingly so infectious that lockdowns won’t contain it.
Coming on top of a contraction in market liquidity and a reckoning for the property market, which underpins the entire banking and savings model.
No idea how to play it. Just stay employed I suppose. If things tank I’ll remortgage my house and take a 25 year view on a global equity tracker.
What reckoning are you anticipating in the property market?
Prices falling, construction groups tipping over. The Party will think they’re clever enough to keep a lid on the contagion. But I personally doubt that.
Most Chinese middle class keep their savings in “wealth management products” that have no legal recourse to the issuing banks but are assumed by savers to carry an implicit state guarantee. They’re typically heavily exposed to property either directly or indirectly. When you look at a typical Chinese corporate somewhere like Shandong, they tend to be a business attached to property speculation, carefully veiled.
Outside Tier 1 and certainly when you get to Tier 3, the municipal and provincial governments carry very high concentration in their tax base to a relatively small number of firms. And it’s all Peter and Paul territory. I’ve seen an instance where every industrial producer in one city was asked by the local party official to cross lend to each other, Japanese keiretsu style. But all that does when things are built on dust is increase the contagion risk. What you then tend to see is state owned enterprises (or even local governments directly) taking on zombie assets. “Oh well our margins are shit because of asset X, strip that out and we look ok”. Lost count how many times I was told that.
And this is without getting into Hong Kong, which is essentially a tool to lever offshore capital for the onshore ponzi.
Some look at China’s $3tr of FX reserves and ask what the big deal is. Well those $3tr are not as robust as you would think if China needs to weather a storm to cover an import gap. They can also not be used to bail out domestic currency debt without breaking the so called Impossible Trinity, essentially by relaxing capital controls for the bail out they sink the currency to levels that might cause impoverishment through inflation.
They’ve mitigated some of this import risk to an extent through the ownership of overseas resource assets. But I just find it impossible to believe they can keep the tiger back in the cage once it’s out.
I am told the international price of diamonds has spiked to levels that make no sense, except when you realise there’s a thriving trade of Hong Kong dealers using them as a tool for holders of yuan to offshore wealth outside of capital controls and they’re just holding them. Much like has happened with Bitcoin, and formerly the copper carry trade used by wealthy individuals that setup commodity trading firms purely for that purpose.
The rubber band is stretched so far when you see the micro detail it’s hard to understand how it didn’t snap years ago. There are banks that without doubt have 40% of their assets being undeclared bad debt. But it’s a big country, who knows it might carry on stretching for 10 more years before snapping for all I know.
People have been saying similar things about China for as long as I can remember. The coming collapse of China; it is always just about to happen.
I'm enjoying this Christmas as you can actually get into a pub, find a seat, order beer and food, without it being rammed with amateur drinkers.
But my anecdata tonight is thaw t every pub in town is empty, apart from Wetherspoons which is moderately busy (obviously people are prepared to risk Omicron at the right price). Prezzo looked like a midweek afternoon in February.
Found out today that our work Xmas do has joined the enormously long list of such events up and down the country to have fallen prey to the Omicronpanic.
There have been some murmurings about rescheduling at a later date. Would anyone else like to hazard a guess as to what proportion of delayed 2021 Christmas parties are ultimately going to go ahead? As near to 0% as makes no difference would be mine.
The hospitality, entertainment and cultural sectors must all be in absolute despair. Wouldn't be surprised if they were secretly praying for yet another lockdown, just to try to force Sunak to open his wallet again.
The problem is that all that is in his wallet is IOUs, mainly, but not exclusively, to the Bank of England. There has to be a limit to the extent to which you can rely upon this "magic money" without paying a price and I fear we are at the edge of it. Inflation is a world wide problem for a variety of reasons but they include the magic printing presses so many have been making use of. The government will be desperate not to have to borrow even more money.
How long is it likely to be before we finally know how dangerous/mild the new variant is?
A couple of months, because remember we also have a load of people with delta and we don't really know who has what, so lots of overlapping data. You won't be able to easily separate out all the moving pieces of delta, omicron, vaccine, booster, age, prior infection etc.
If Omicron is dangerous, it will be putting people in hospital next week.
I'm enjoying this Christmas as you can actually get into a pub, find a seat, order beer and food, without it being rammed with amateur drinkers.
But my anecdata tonight is thaw t every pub in town is empty, apart from Wetherspoons which is moderately busy (obviously people are prepared to risk Omicron at the right price). Prezzo looked like a midweek afternoon in February.
Running club still had the annual buffet last night. About 60 of us for a buffet, awards raffle & quiz.
Would anyone else like to hazard a guess as to what proportion of delayed 2021 Christmas parties are ultimately going to go ahead? As near to 0% as makes no difference would be mine.
Yes this one does make me laugh. Defer it to January, when there's probably an even greater likelihood of having to cancel it? Defer it to spring, defer it to summer? I'm sure folk might postpone social gatherings to then, but they're not going to be Xmas parties with all that entails for the hospitality industry. "Defer" in this instance is just a fancy word for cancel, basically.
How long is it likely to be before we finally know how dangerous/mild the new variant is?
A couple of months, because remember we also have a load of people with delta and we don't really know who has what, so lots of overlapping data. You won't be able to easily separate out all the moving pieces of delta, omicron, vaccine, booster, age, prior infection etc.
If Omicron is dangerous, it will be putting people in hospital next week.
Obviously. I was answering it from the point of view when can we actually put a number on the difference in how dangerous it is. Maybe that wasn't the question.
Goodness me, Keir Starmer in tune with the public and not @Philip_Thompson!?! I am shocked!
I don't think I'm in tune with the public, I think I'm cleverer than the public.
The public is engaging in mass hysteria and Starmer and Boris are feeding into it rather than being leaders. Shame on them both.
Between you and Chris, PB is so lucky to have not one, but two, of the smartest people in the room.
I don't think I'm the smartest in the room, but I think I am smarter than the average Joe Public, and I would say that of almost everyone on this site too.
If I was to pick the smartest person in the room on all this then I'd have to nominate @MaxPB
Hands up all those who think Phil is "smarter than almost everyone on this site too".
Come on don't be shy...a show of hands...come on...
Tsk, when discussing who the smartest is its not a good idea to misread what Philip said. He says we are all smarter than the average Joe Public.
Never mind a Dukla Prague Away Kit, all I want for Christmas is a Negative Lateral Flow Test.
Old news. Had 5 of those in the last two weeks. Arrival and departure UK, plus 3 at home to see if the lurgy I got was a cold or COVID. A cold, thank goodness
How long is it likely to be before we finally know how dangerous/mild the new variant is?
A couple of months, because remember we also have a load of people with delta and we don't really know who has what, so lots of overlapping data. You won't be able to easily separate out all the moving pieces of delta, omicron, vaccine, booster, age, prior infection etc.
If Omicron is dangerous, it will be putting people in hospital next week.
That wasn't the question.
Yes it was. We will know if Omicron is dangerous if people start being admitted to hospital in the next few days.
How long is it likely to be before we finally know how dangerous/mild the new variant is?
A couple of months, because remember we also have a load of people with delta and we don't really know who has what, so lots of overlapping data. You won't be able to easily separate out all the moving pieces of delta, omicron, vaccine, booster, age, prior infection etc.
If Omicron is dangerous, it will be putting people in hospital next week.
That wasn't the question.
Yes it was. We will know if Omicron is dangerous if people start being admitted to hospital in the next few days.
I was answering it from the point of view when can we actually put a number on the difference in how dangerous it is. Maybe I mistook the question?
"how dangerous/mild" - i took that to mean how long until we can properly assess this. Not is it dangerous / mild. Of course we will start seeing hospitalisations in much larger numbers shortly, but loads of factors to consider. It can be much milder and we could still see massive hospitalisations.
Goodness me, Keir Starmer in tune with the public and not @Philip_Thompson!?! I am shocked!
I don't think I'm in tune with the public, I think I'm cleverer than the public.
The public is engaging in mass hysteria and Starmer and Boris are feeding into it rather than being leaders. Shame on them both.
Between you and Chris, PB is so lucky to have not one, but two, of the smartest people in the room.
I don't think I'm the smartest in the room, but I think I am smarter than the average Joe Public, and I would say that of almost everyone on this site too.
If I was to pick the smartest person in the room on all this then I'd have to nominate @MaxPB
Hands up all those who think Phil is "smarter than almost everyone on this site too".
Come on don't be shy...a show of hands...come on...
It's not particularly hard to be more intelligent than the 'average Joe'. They have an IQ of 100, after all.
Surely not? What about the 17.5 m geniuses who voted Brexit, or is it just the rest of us who are bringing the average down?
Found out today that our work Xmas do has joined the enormously long list of such events up and down the country to have fallen prey to the Omicronpanic.
There have been some murmurings about rescheduling at a later date. Would anyone else like to hazard a guess as to what proportion of delayed 2021 Christmas parties are ultimately going to go ahead? As near to 0% as makes no difference would be mine.
The hospitality, entertainment and cultural sectors must all be in absolute despair. Wouldn't be surprised if they were secretly praying for yet another lockdown, just to try to force Sunak to open his wallet again.
The problem is that all that is in his wallet is IOUs, mainly, but not exclusively, to the Bank of England. There has to be a limit to the extent to which you can rely upon this "magic money" without paying a price and I fear we are at the edge of it. Inflation is a world wide problem for a variety of reasons but they include the magic printing presses so many have been making use of. The government will be desperate not to have to borrow even more money.
Well, regardless of whether it's business support to keep firms afloat or social security to address the consequences of not bothering, the Government is going to have to shell out one way or another. And if the fallout from money printing is too painful to contemplate, that means more taxes. Choose your poison, Chancellor.
I'm enjoying this Christmas as you can actually get into a pub, find a seat, order beer and food, without it being rammed with amateur drinkers.
But my anecdata tonight is thaw t every pub in town is empty, apart from Wetherspoons which is moderately busy (obviously people are prepared to risk Omicron at the right price). Prezzo looked like a midweek afternoon in February.
Running club still had the annual buffet last night. About 60 of us for a buffet, awards raffle & quiz.
Mine hasn't organised one, neither a post-Marathons social. But I have 4 social events coming up before Christmas which I fully expect to go ahead.
I wonder how many of those 80% actually go to venues or events? If the 15% consists of those who regularly go clubbing and go to gigs etc and the 80% are people who wouldn't be seen dead in such places then it is a pretty meaningless poll and nightclubs are basically fucked.
As vaccinated people can still get and transmit the virus, presumably the point of a vaccine passport is largely merely to encourage unvaccinated people to get jabbed so they can continue to do the social things they like to do.
So to me it feels like it should be really easy to show if a vaccine passport scheme is working by how many first doses are given out after it starts operating, relative to where we were in the last few weeks before it started operating - i.e. is it actually encouraging the unvaccinated to get jabbed, or are they just choosing to no longer do the same things as before if they have to get jabbed to do it?
Given how long they've been used in Scotland it feels like there must be enough data to have at least a first stab at answering that.
My understanding is on that score it failed. And given the mindset of the anti-vaxxers I know I am not surprised. They see these moves as yet another rule to be resisted rather than surrender to (not my view I hasten to add) and if anything this stick disguised as a carrot is actually counter productive.
Goodness me, Keir Starmer in tune with the public and not @Philip_Thompson!?! I am shocked!
I don't think I'm in tune with the public, I think I'm cleverer than the public.
The public is engaging in mass hysteria and Starmer and Boris are feeding into it rather than being leaders. Shame on them both.
Between you and Chris, PB is so lucky to have not one, but two, of the smartest people in the room.
I don't think I'm the smartest in the room, but I think I am smarter than the average Joe Public, and I would say that of almost everyone on this site too.
If I was to pick the smartest person in the room on all this then I'd have to nominate @MaxPB
Hands up all those who think Phil is "smarter than almost everyone on this site too".
Come on don't be shy...a show of hands...come on...
It's not particularly hard to be more intelligent than the 'average Joe'. They have an IQ of 100, after all.
Surely not? What about the 17.5 m geniuses who voted Brexit, or is it just the rest of us who are bringing the average down?
Gawd bless yer Sir!
That's entirely right. On the right of the curve you have the Brexiteers, on the left, Remainers.
In my experience it is a pretty big error to start believing you are smarter than the public.
I don't think that's the error, I think the error is believing that the public will eventually see the error of their ways, realise how super smart you are, and join you.
Found out today that our work Xmas do has joined the enormously long list of such events up and down the country to have fallen prey to the Omicronpanic.
There have been some murmurings about rescheduling at a later date. Would anyone else like to hazard a guess as to what proportion of delayed 2021 Christmas parties are ultimately going to go ahead? As near to 0% as makes no difference would be mine.
The hospitality, entertainment and cultural sectors must all be in absolute despair. Wouldn't be surprised if they were secretly praying for yet another lockdown, just to try to force Sunak to open his wallet again.
The problem is that all that is in his wallet is IOUs, mainly, but not exclusively, to the Bank of England. There has to be a limit to the extent to which you can rely upon this "magic money" without paying a price and I fear we are at the edge of it. Inflation is a world wide problem for a variety of reasons but they include the magic printing presses so many have been making use of. The government will be desperate not to have to borrow even more money.
Well, regardless of whether it's business support to keep firms afloat or social security to address the consequences of not bothering, the Government is going to have to shell out one way or another. And if the fallout from money printing is too painful to contemplate, that means more taxes. Choose your poison, Chancellor.
There's nothing to pick.
The timing of this 'wave' couldn't be much better if the Chancellor had planned it. Half the country shuts down between Christmas and New Year anyway.
If there's a time for everyone in the nation who's going to get the virus to get it, it'd be pretty ideal for the Chancellor if we have it all rip now.
Goodness me, Keir Starmer in tune with the public and not @Philip_Thompson!?! I am shocked!
I don't think I'm in tune with the public, I think I'm cleverer than the public.
The public is engaging in mass hysteria and Starmer and Boris are feeding into it rather than being leaders. Shame on them both.
Between you and Chris, PB is so lucky to have not one, but two, of the smartest people in the room.
I don't think I'm the smartest in the room, but I think I am smarter than the average Joe Public, and I would say that of almost everyone on this site too.
If I was to pick the smartest person in the room on all this then I'd have to nominate @MaxPB
Hands up all those who think Phil is "smarter than almost everyone on this site too".
Come on don't be shy...a show of hands...come on...
Tsk, when discussing who the smartest is its not a good idea to misread what Philip said. He says we are all smarter than the average Joe Public.
Which is a nice conceit.
Excuse me but I've never claimed to be anything but an ill-educated serf.
Found out today that our work Xmas do has joined the enormously long list of such events up and down the country to have fallen prey to the Omicronpanic.
There have been some murmurings about rescheduling at a later date. Would anyone else like to hazard a guess as to what proportion of delayed 2021 Christmas parties are ultimately going to go ahead? As near to 0% as makes no difference would be mine.
The hospitality, entertainment and cultural sectors must all be in absolute despair. Wouldn't be surprised if they were secretly praying for yet another lockdown, just to try to force Sunak to open his wallet again.
The problem is that all that is in his wallet is IOUs, mainly, but not exclusively, to the Bank of England. There has to be a limit to the extent to which you can rely upon this "magic money" without paying a price and I fear we are at the edge of it. Inflation is a world wide problem for a variety of reasons but they include the magic printing presses so many have been making use of. The government will be desperate not to have to borrow even more money.
Well, regardless of whether it's business support to keep firms afloat or social security to address the consequences of not bothering, the Government is going to have to shell out one way or another. And if the fallout from money printing is too painful to contemplate, that means more taxes. Choose your poison, Chancellor.
Not true - I'd count myself as a supporter, despite also thinking he's been entirely useless for months. I'd currently not employ his corpse as a doorstop.
However.. if he can be arsed to get out of bed one morning then he's still a capable poitician.
I'm intrigued. Whose corpse would you employ as a doorstop?
Big money in that you know. Ecorpsefordoorstops.com does a roaring trade. Mummy's are the top sellers (as they last) and most subject to fakery too.
There is an American friend of mine who seriously tried to source a mummy on the black market so he could source a Victorian-style mummy unwrapping party 😂
Apparently there is a specific piece of US legislation that bans the purchase of mummies…
(He was inspired because I had borrowed a mummy from a museum in Mansfield and he happened to be around when it was shipped to my place in London)
Why did you borrow a mummy? (I know I'm going to regret asking!)
I wonder how many of those 80% actually go to venues or events? If the 15% consists of those who regularly go clubbing and go to gigs etc and the 80% are people who wouldn't be seen dead in such places then it is a pretty meaningless poll and nightclubs are basically fucked.
As vaccinated people can still get and transmit the virus, presumably the point of a vaccine passport is largely merely to encourage unvaccinated people to get jabbed so they can continue to do the social things they like to do.
So to me it feels like it should be really easy to show if a vaccine passport scheme is working by how many first doses are given out after it starts operating, relative to where we were in the last few weeks before it started operating - i.e. is it actually encouraging the unvaccinated to get jabbed, or are they just choosing to no longer do the same things as before if they have to get jabbed to do it?
Given how long they've been used in Scotland it feels like there must be enough data to have at least a first stab at answering that.
My understanding is on that score it failed. And given the mindset of the anti-vaxxers I know I am not surprised. They see these moves as yet another rule to be resisted rather than surrender to (not my view I hasten to add) and if anything this stick disguised as a carrot is actually counter productive.
Indeed. And if it's not driving people to get jabbed to do these things, then what's the point of the scheme, other than "covid theatre"? Unless you extend it to ever more everyday things beyond the nightclub or a big football match to literally force people to get jabbed in order to take part in everyday society, and I see that going down like a bucket of cold sick on just about all fronts.
Goodness me, Keir Starmer in tune with the public and not @Philip_Thompson!?! I am shocked!
I don't think I'm in tune with the public, I think I'm cleverer than the public.
The public is engaging in mass hysteria and Starmer and Boris are feeding into it rather than being leaders. Shame on them both.
Between you and Chris, PB is so lucky to have not one, but two, of the smartest people in the room.
I don't think I'm the smartest in the room, but I think I am smarter than the average Joe Public, and I would say that of almost everyone on this site too.
If I was to pick the smartest person in the room on all this then I'd have to nominate @MaxPB
Hands up all those who think Phil is "smarter than almost everyone on this site too".
Come on don't be shy...a show of hands...come on...
Tsk, when discussing who the smartest is its not a good idea to misread what Philip said. He says we are all smarter than the average Joe Public.
Which is a nice conceit.
Excuse me but I've never claimed to be anything but an ill-educated serf.
Socrates breasts the tape ahead of you, but only just.
I'm just thinking there's at least one PBer that seems to think that the old manorial system would be a good way for the Tories to arrange society, with the lords of the manors for us to grovel and cringe to.
Found out today that our work Xmas do has joined the enormously long list of such events up and down the country to have fallen prey to the Omicronpanic.
There have been some murmurings about rescheduling at a later date. Would anyone else like to hazard a guess as to what proportion of delayed 2021 Christmas parties are ultimately going to go ahead? As near to 0% as makes no difference would be mine.
The hospitality, entertainment and cultural sectors must all be in absolute despair. Wouldn't be surprised if they were secretly praying for yet another lockdown, just to try to force Sunak to open his wallet again.
The problem is that all that is in his wallet is IOUs, mainly, but not exclusively, to the Bank of England. There has to be a limit to the extent to which you can rely upon this "magic money" without paying a price and I fear we are at the edge of it. Inflation is a world wide problem for a variety of reasons but they include the magic printing presses so many have been making use of. The government will be desperate not to have to borrow even more money.
Well, regardless of whether it's business support to keep firms afloat or social security to address the consequences of not bothering, the Government is going to have to shell out one way or another. And if the fallout from money printing is too painful to contemplate, that means more taxes. Choose your poison, Chancellor.
There's nothing to pick.
The timing of this 'wave' couldn't be much better if the Chancellor had planned it. Half the country shuts down between Christmas and New Year anyway.
If there's a time for everyone in the nation who's going to get the virus to get it, it'd be pretty ideal for the Chancellor if we have it all rip now.
Bit shit for Foxy and his colleagues, not to mention the patients.
I am still refusing to panic about Omicron. The doom all seems to be from models based on rapidly rising cases but almost nothing on virulence. Cases started to rise in London three weeks ago. What is the actual position of London hospitals. Are they starting to come under strain? How many on ventilators? In ICU? Being given oxygen?
I'll happily change my stance if someone will give me the data.
In Guateng hospitals are under no pressure, they had below average deaths last week and they are past peak. Hospital doctors there confirm that omicron is absolutely nothing like delta in its deadliness. But apparently we need to ignore this information as South Africans are different to us and their doctors are lying
Goodness me, Keir Starmer in tune with the public and not @Philip_Thompson!?! I am shocked!
I don't think I'm in tune with the public, I think I'm cleverer than the public.
The public is engaging in mass hysteria and Starmer and Boris are feeding into it rather than being leaders. Shame on them both.
Between you and Chris, PB is so lucky to have not one, but two, of the smartest people in the room.
I don't think I'm the smartest in the room, but I think I am smarter than the average Joe Public, and I would say that of almost everyone on this site too.
If I was to pick the smartest person in the room on all this then I'd have to nominate @MaxPB
Hands up all those who think Phil is "smarter than almost everyone on this site too".
Come on don't be shy...a show of hands...come on...
Tsk, when discussing who the smartest is its not a good idea to misread what Philip said. He says we are all smarter than the average Joe Public.
Which is a nice conceit.
Excuse me but I've never claimed to be anything but an ill-educated serf.
Socrates breasts the tape ahead of you, but only just.
I'm just thinking there's at least one PBer that seems to think that the old manorial system would be a good way for the Tories to arrange society, with the lords of the manors for us to grovel and cringe to.
It would simplify politics, for us plebs at least.
I quite like the old feudal Tories. It's the new breed personified by Francois I can't bear.
Found out today that our work Xmas do has joined the enormously long list of such events up and down the country to have fallen prey to the Omicronpanic.
There have been some murmurings about rescheduling at a later date. Would anyone else like to hazard a guess as to what proportion of delayed 2021 Christmas parties are ultimately going to go ahead? As near to 0% as makes no difference would be mine.
The hospitality, entertainment and cultural sectors must all be in absolute despair. Wouldn't be surprised if they were secretly praying for yet another lockdown, just to try to force Sunak to open his wallet again.
The problem is that all that is in his wallet is IOUs, mainly, but not exclusively, to the Bank of England. There has to be a limit to the extent to which you can rely upon this "magic money" without paying a price and I fear we are at the edge of it. Inflation is a world wide problem for a variety of reasons but they include the magic printing presses so many have been making use of. The government will be desperate not to have to borrow even more money.
Well, regardless of whether it's business support to keep firms afloat or social security to address the consequences of not bothering, the Government is going to have to shell out one way or another. And if the fallout from money printing is too painful to contemplate, that means more taxes. Choose your poison, Chancellor.
There's nothing to pick.
The timing of this 'wave' couldn't be much better if the Chancellor had planned it. Half the country shuts down between Christmas and New Year anyway.
If there's a time for everyone in the nation who's going to get the virus to get it, it'd be pretty ideal for the Chancellor if we have it all rip now.
Bit shit for Foxy and his colleagues, not to mention the patients.
I'm enjoying this Christmas as you can actually get into a pub, find a seat, order beer and food, without it being rammed with amateur drinkers.
But my anecdata tonight is thaw t every pub in town is empty, apart from Wetherspoons which is moderately busy (obviously people are prepared to risk Omicron at the right price). Prezzo looked like a midweek afternoon in February.
Running club still had the annual buffet last night. About 60 of us for a buffet, awards raffle & quiz.
Fortunately our running club had its Xmas event a couple of weeks ago. I'll be going on all our regular runs, making the most of the company from now 'til the holidays. At least it looks as if my lockdown this Saturday prediction is going to come and go unfulfilled, but once we get past Boxing Day I think it likely that we'll have to put up with a very lengthy period of shitty lockdown social distancing crap coming round the corner yet again, when I'll be back to going round town in circles on my own.
I'm in a relatively good place with regard to dealing with all the horrid things that I can't change right now, but last Winter was terrible. Still dealing with the consequences in terms of the last few pounds of lockdown weight that I can't shift!
I'm enjoying this Christmas as you can actually get into a pub, find a seat, order beer and food, without it being rammed with amateur drinkers.
But my anecdata tonight is thaw t every pub in town is empty, apart from Wetherspoons which is moderately busy (obviously people are prepared to risk Omicron at the right price). Prezzo looked like a midweek afternoon in February.
Sorry, the role of professional drinker on this site has already been filled.
In my experience it is a pretty big error to start believing you are smarter than the public.
It depends what you think you're smarter than the public on.
If it comes to things like fashion, or celebrity gossip etc then I'd be dumber than a bag of rocks on those things.
Know your limitations.
I think it is a real mistake to start thinking like this at all. The only thing I really think I know something about is my work. Everything else I just assume I know next to nothing about.
I am still refusing to panic about Omicron. The doom all seems to be from models based on rapidly rising cases but almost nothing on virulence. Cases started to rise in London three weeks ago. What is the actual position of London hospitals. Are they starting to come under strain? How many on ventilators? In ICU? Being given oxygen?
I'll happily change my stance if someone will give me the data.
Hospitalisation numbers are sharply up today (+308 over last week) after weeks of drift. Could be a blip, but probably not.
Found out today that our work Xmas do has joined the enormously long list of such events up and down the country to have fallen prey to the Omicronpanic.
There have been some murmurings about rescheduling at a later date. Would anyone else like to hazard a guess as to what proportion of delayed 2021 Christmas parties are ultimately going to go ahead? As near to 0% as makes no difference would be mine.
The hospitality, entertainment and cultural sectors must all be in absolute despair. Wouldn't be surprised if they were secretly praying for yet another lockdown, just to try to force Sunak to open his wallet again.
The problem is that all that is in his wallet is IOUs, mainly, but not exclusively, to the Bank of England. There has to be a limit to the extent to which you can rely upon this "magic money" without paying a price and I fear we are at the edge of it. Inflation is a world wide problem for a variety of reasons but they include the magic printing presses so many have been making use of. The government will be desperate not to have to borrow even more money.
Well, regardless of whether it's business support to keep firms afloat or social security to address the consequences of not bothering, the Government is going to have to shell out one way or another. And if the fallout from money printing is too painful to contemplate, that means more taxes. Choose your poison, Chancellor.
There's nothing to pick.
The timing of this 'wave' couldn't be much better if the Chancellor had planned it. Half the country shuts down between Christmas and New Year anyway.
If there's a time for everyone in the nation who's going to get the virus to get it, it'd be pretty ideal for the Chancellor if we have it all rip now.
More like it couldn't have come at a worse time. A tsunami of Christmas bookings getting wiped out is far worse for these businesses than a state enforced lockdown with a financial support package.
As, I think, most of us have come to appreciate from last year's experiences, if we didn't know it already, December takings are absolutely critical for most hospitality businesses. They help to cover the lean periods, especially over the rest of the Winter, where they run at a loss. A lot of them now have insufficient income and can't afford to borrow yet more to bail themselves out.
I understand the arguments about the figures used for population in the numbers that show London a third unvaccinated aren't the really official ones, but do we have any idea of the unofficial population in London?
Could it actually be worse than the worst looking figure vax-wise in London if there is a huge undocumented population in our capital?
Blast, my mum has tested positive on her LFT, she saw my B-i-L on Saturday. My dad says she's feeling good, just coughing a bit and got a headache, he's keeping an eye out for anything more serious but she's in pretty good health so everything should be fine. 3x Pfizer doses, third one done about a month ago, it's London so it's probably the big Omi, all of our collective symptoms line up with it anyway.
Andy Dempster @AndyDempster · 2h Visited my restaurant in Stratford today from having over 250 booked for lunch, to 10 people booked. Should have been one of our busier days, all gone, the goverment have forced businesses to act, hospitality carries the can. #broken #hospitalityindustry
People believing that they know things that they are really clueless about is a fallacy that is commonplace in society, not just amongst the PB intelligensia. DIY is one such area - where people convince themselves that they can do better building work than experienced tradesmen. It is very rare that this is the case.
Sunak has fucked this. Holy shit, i didnt think "on work jolly" was going to be the reason he wasn't here.
Do you think that normal members of the public (I.e. not obsessive like us on pb) give two shits where sunak is, or why he missed a vote that was always going to pass?
Not true - I'd count myself as a supporter, despite also thinking he's been entirely useless for months. I'd currently not employ his corpse as a doorstop.
However.. if he can be arsed to get out of bed one morning then he's still a capable poitician.
I'm intrigued. Whose corpse would you employ as a doorstop?
Big money in that you know. Ecorpsefordoorstops.com does a roaring trade. Mummy's are the top sellers (as they last) and most subject to fakery too.
There is an American friend of mine who seriously tried to source a mummy on the black market so he could source a Victorian-style mummy unwrapping party 😂
Apparently there is a specific piece of US legislation that bans the purchase of mummies…
(He was inspired because I had borrowed a mummy from a museum in Mansfield and he happened to be around when it was shipped to my place in London)
What an utterly creepy piece of shit. Why would you be friends with someone like that?
That's not creepy. The archeology of dead bodies is fascinating.
In Victorian times, they used to grind mummies up and use them as medicine. That's creepy.
And for a millennium before that. It is precisely because taphology and onomy are serious subjects that this pathetic striving for the rich and patrician look by trying to hold mummy unwrapping parties is so nauseating.
Sunak has fucked this. Holy shit, i didnt think "on work jolly" was going to be the reason he wasn't here.
Do you think that normal members of the public (I.e. not obsessive like us on pb) give two shits where sunak is, or why he missed a vote that was always going to pass?
Those who work in hospitality might be miffed if they’re picking up the pieces and he's sipping a mojito on the beach. Not exactly man of the people stuff
Sunak has fucked this. Holy shit, i didnt think "on work jolly" was going to be the reason he wasn't here.
Do you think that normal members of the public (I.e. not obsessive like us on pb) give two shits where sunak is, or why he missed a vote that was always going to pass?
Those who work in hospitality might be miffed if they’re picking up the pieces and he's sipping a mojito on the beach. Not exactly man of the people stuff
Sunak has fucked this. Holy shit, i didnt think "on work jolly" was going to be the reason he wasn't here.
Do you think that normal members of the public (I.e. not obsessive like us on pb) give two shits where sunak is, or why he missed a vote that was always going to pass?
Those who work in hospitality might be miffed if they’re picking up the pieces and he's sipping a mojito on the beach. Not exactly man of the people stuff
Again, we are exceptions. Most normal folk won’t know who he is.
I'm enjoying this Christmas as you can actually get into a pub, find a seat, order beer and food, without it being rammed with amateur drinkers.
But my anecdata tonight is thaw t every pub in town is empty, apart from Wetherspoons which is moderately busy (obviously people are prepared to risk Omicron at the right price). Prezzo looked like a midweek afternoon in February.
Sorry, the role of professional drinker on this site has already been filled.
I'm a mere dilettante, not worthy to stand in his shoes etc. But I'm planning to spend the weekend pissed.
Wondering if Leon has ever been in a Wetherspoons? They have great winter ales on at the moment and my local always serves them in good condition.
Sunak has fucked this. Holy shit, i didnt think "on work jolly" was going to be the reason he wasn't here.
Do you think that normal members of the public (I.e. not obsessive like us on pb) give two shits where sunak is, or why he missed a vote that was always going to pass?
Every single person in the hospitality sector at the moment is absolutely furious with the government. Finding out the bloke holding the purse strings is in the vicinity of his holiday home in America is not going to lighten the mood.
The big question that AFAIK the media seemed to totally miss, the anti-virals the government ordered. How many do we have, how many are coming very soon, and most importantly how do they plan to get them to vulnerable people, as they need to start taking them as soon as they symptoms.....we can't afford to have people ringing their GP or 111, scheduling some sort of consultation, then wait for PCR test result, .....
Blast, my mum has tested positive on her LFT, she saw my B-i-L on Saturday. My dad says she's feeling good, just coughing a bit and got a headache, he's keeping an eye out for anything more serious but she's in pretty good health so everything should be fine. 3x Pfizer doses, third one done about a month ago, it's London so it's probably the big Omi, all of our collective symptoms line up with it anyway.
It doesn't seem right to 'like' that post so... I hope all are on the mend soon.
The big question that AFAIK the media seemed to totally miss, the anti-virals the government ordered. How many do we have, how many are coming very soon, and most importantly how do they plan to get them to vulnerable people, as they need to start taking them as soon as they symptoms.....we can't afford to have people ringing their GP or 111, scheduling some sort of consultation, then a test, .....
Sunak has fucked this. Holy shit, i didnt think "on work jolly" was going to be the reason he wasn't here.
Do you think that normal members of the public (I.e. not obsessive like us on pb) give two shits where sunak is, or why he missed a vote that was always going to pass?
Every single person in the hospitality sector at the moment is absolutely furious with the government. Finding out the bloke holding the purse strings is in the vicinity of his holiday home in America is not going to lighten the mood.
What do they want the government to do? Close and furlough? Free money as support? Wish Covid away? None of this is easy.
The big question that AFAIK the media seemed to totally miss, the anti-virals the government ordered. How many do we have, how many are coming very soon, and most importantly how do they plan to get them to vulnerable people, as they need to start taking them as soon as they symptoms.....we can't afford to have people ringing their GP or 111, scheduling some sort of consultation, then a test, .....
I hope they just pop them in the post.
Too slow...that could be 24-48hrs before you get them. You need to start taking as soon as you start to become symptomatic. Otherwise the government are just setting light to $1000 a pop.
That is why I think it is rather an important question.
If you say people can pick them up from pharmacies, then you are asking infected vulnerable people to go out into the community. And can they get there without booking a taxi / taking a bus?
Not true - I'd count myself as a supporter, despite also thinking he's been entirely useless for months. I'd currently not employ his corpse as a doorstop.
However.. if he can be arsed to get out of bed one morning then he's still a capable poitician.
I'm intrigued. Whose corpse would you employ as a doorstop?
Big money in that you know. Ecorpsefordoorstops.com does a roaring trade. Mummy's are the top sellers (as they last) and most subject to fakery too.
There is an American friend of mine who seriously tried to source a mummy on the black market so he could source a Victorian-style mummy unwrapping party 😂
Apparently there is a specific piece of US legislation that bans the purchase of mummies…
(He was inspired because I had borrowed a mummy from a museum in Mansfield and he happened to be around when it was shipped to my place in London)
What an utterly creepy piece of shit. Why would you be friends with someone like that?
That's not creepy. The archeology of dead bodies is fascinating.
In Victorian times, they used to grind mummies up and use them as medicine. That's creepy.
And for a millennium before that. It is precisely because taphology and onomy are serious subjects that this pathetic striving for the rich and patrician look by trying to hold mummy unwrapping parties is so nauseating.
I'd attend a mummy-unwrapping party tomorrow. Not that I move in the sane circles as Charles.
How long is it likely to be before we finally know how dangerous/mild the new variant is?
A couple of months, because remember we also have a load of people with delta and we don't really know who has what, so lots of overlapping data. You won't be able to easily separate out all the moving pieces of delta, omicron, vaccine, booster, age, prior infection etc.
If Omicron is dangerous, it will be putting people in hospital next week.
That wasn't the question.
Yes it was. We will know if Omicron is dangerous if people start being admitted to hospital in the next few days.
The big question that AFAIK the media seemed to totally miss, the anti-virals the government ordered. How many do we have, how many are coming very soon, and most importantly how do they plan to get them to vulnerable people, as they need to start taking them as soon as they symptoms.....we can't afford to have people ringing their GP or 111, scheduling some sort of consultation, then a test, .....
I hope they just pop them in the post.
Too slow...that could be 24-48hrs before you get them. You need to start taking as soon as you start to become symptomatic. Otherwise the government are just setting light to $1000 a pop.
That is why I think it is rather an important question.
If you say people can pick them up from pharmacies, then you are asking infected vulnerable people to go out into the community. Delivery them to their door? Amazon?
The big question that AFAIK the media seemed to totally miss, the anti-virals the government ordered. How many do we have, how many are coming very soon, and most importantly how do they plan to get them to vulnerable people, as they need to start taking them as soon as they symptoms.....we can't afford to have people ringing their GP or 111, scheduling some sort of consultation, then wait for PCR test result, .....
Sadly molnupiravir looks about as useless as a chocolate teapot. Barely made it past FDA approval. The GSK antibody treatment looks better though and we've got a few hundred thousand courses of that on the way fairly soon. It's made to fight a wide spectrum of variants and has shown very good efficacy against Omicron in the lab.
The big question that AFAIK the media seemed to totally miss, the anti-virals the government ordered. How many do we have, how many are coming very soon, and most importantly how do they plan to get them to vulnerable people, as they need to start taking them as soon as they symptoms.....we can't afford to have people ringing their GP or 111, scheduling some sort of consultation, then a test, .....
I hope they just pop them in the post.
Too slow...that could be 24-48hrs before you get them. You need to start taking as soon as you start to become symptomatic. Otherwise the government are just setting light to $1000 a pop.
That is why I think it is rather an important question.
If you say people can pick them up from pharmacies, then you are asking infected vulnerable people to go out into the community. Delivery them to their door? Amazon?
Couriers, then.
That seems like the only reasonable solution, but as I say I think it is rather a pertinent question to be asking....we don't want a repeat of oh we need to do a 1 million jabs a day, anybody asked all those volunteers we trained up....erhhhhh....wait 2 weeks....shit I think we better write to them.
Blast, my mum has tested positive on her LFT, she saw my B-i-L on Saturday. My dad says she's feeling good, just coughing a bit and got a headache, he's keeping an eye out for anything more serious but she's in pretty good health so everything should be fine. 3x Pfizer doses, third one done about a month ago, it's London so it's probably the big Omi, all of our collective symptoms line up with it anyway.
It doesn't seem right to 'like' that post so... I hope all are on the mend soon.
Blast, my mum has tested positive on her LFT, she saw my B-i-L on Saturday. My dad says she's feeling good, just coughing a bit and got a headache, he's keeping an eye out for anything more serious but she's in pretty good health so everything should be fine. 3x Pfizer doses, third one done about a month ago, it's London so it's probably the big Omi, all of our collective symptoms line up with it anyway.
A lawyers viewpoint on the finale - if you follow the rulebook correctly it isn't good for Red Bull and Max
You get bad decisions in sports every single day. And sometimes the strict letter of the rules aren't followed. But the results stand. And so they should rather than getting zillions of lawyers involved. This is sport not a contract dispute.
Comments
In Victorian times, they used to grind mummies up and use them as medicine. That's creepy.
There have been some murmurings about rescheduling at a later date. Would anyone else like to hazard a guess as to what proportion of delayed 2021 Christmas parties are ultimately going to go ahead? As near to 0% as makes no difference would be mine.
The hospitality, entertainment and cultural sectors must all be in absolute despair. Wouldn't be surprised if they were secretly praying for yet another lockdown, just to try to force Sunak to open his wallet again.
But my anecdata tonight is thaw t every pub in town is empty, apart from Wetherspoons which is moderately busy (obviously people are prepared to risk Omicron at the right price). Prezzo looked like a midweek afternoon in February.
If the video in the header is an accurate representation of the voters in NS, then the Tories are safely home.
It really does seem to be "Monkey with a blue rosette" territory
Which is a nice conceit.
"how dangerous/mild" - i took that to mean how long until we can properly assess this. Not is it dangerous / mild. Of course we will start seeing hospitalisations in much larger numbers shortly, but loads of factors to consider. It can be much milder and we could still see massive hospitalisations.
If it comes to things like fashion, or celebrity gossip etc then I'd be dumber than a bag of rocks on those things.
Know your limitations.
Gawd bless yer Sir!
The timing of this 'wave' couldn't be much better if the Chancellor had planned it. Half the country shuts down between Christmas and New Year anyway.
If there's a time for everyone in the nation who's going to get the virus to get it, it'd be pretty ideal for the Chancellor if we have it all rip now.
It is his Premier League debut and his VAR communications kit kept on failing, about 7 minutes of the 11 added on was for that.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/rishi-sunak-blasted-trip-california-25710006 https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1471233424677560321/photo/1
I'm in a relatively good place with regard to dealing with all the horrid things that I can't change right now, but last Winter was terrible. Still dealing with the consequences in terms of the last few pounds of lockdown weight that I can't shift!
@EricTopol
·
17h
The O signature is a |
As, I think, most of us have come to appreciate from last year's experiences, if we didn't know it already, December takings are absolutely critical for most hospitality businesses. They help to cover the lean periods, especially over the rest of the Winter, where they run at a loss. A lot of them now have insufficient income and can't afford to borrow yet more to bail themselves out.
Harry Cole
@MrHarryCole
·
2h
Pubs of whitehall are all but empty on Black Eye Friday Eve… brutal for them.
Could it actually be worse than the worst looking figure vax-wise in London if there is a huge undocumented population in our capital?
Andy Dempster
@AndyDempster
·
2h
Visited my restaurant in Stratford today from having over 250 booked for lunch, to 10 people booked. Should have been one of our busier days, all gone, the goverment have forced businesses to act, hospitality carries the can. #broken #hospitalityindustry
https://twitter.com/alexselby1770/status/1471154053031899145?s=21
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/rishi-sunak-blasted-trip-california-25710006?s=09
Wondering if Leon has ever been in a Wetherspoons? They have great winter ales on at the moment and my local always serves them in good condition.
Also Monkey 47 at a democratic price.
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1471214385922195460?t=43OAs3MdhmqE1APYUgNWNw&s=19
That is why I think it is rather an important question.
If you say people can pick them up from pharmacies, then you are asking infected vulnerable people to go out into the community. And can they get there without booking a taxi / taking a bus?
Delivery them to their door? Amazon?
https://medium.com/@gwkj1/analysing-the-fia-rulebook-after-the-abu-dhabi-grand-prix-a-lawyers-perspective-571ca3810060
A lawyers viewpoint on the finale - if you follow the rulebook correctly it isn't good for Red Bull and Max
Unless you are going full Corbyn and want private practice abolished. Private medicine is nearly all done by NHS doctors after hours.
Interesting.
Good night.