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This video is a good introduction to tomorrow’s by-election – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
This video is a good introduction to tomorrow’s by-election – politicalbetting.com

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  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    1st
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,869
    edited December 2021
    First - to escape from @ydoethur !

    Edit: Oh well 2nd then
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    I used to love him? They interviewed all his exes and it lasts only nine minutes?
  • theakestheakes Posts: 583
    Lib Dem canvassers sound much more optimistic tonight than they did last night!!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Omnium said:

    First - to escape from @ydoethur !

    Edit: Oh well 2nd then

    Then you shouldn't have told me about the new thread, should you? I hadn't noticed it.

    Your entire strategy unravelled on that basis...
  • Robert Colvile
    @rcolvile
    ·
    1h
    It does feel extremely weird for that press conference not to be accompanied by new restrictions.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Interesting video....unherd talking to an academic modeller from SA.

    https://youtu.be/RWrjX1ty2EU

    Freddie Sayer is so good at picking out potential flaws and the letting the interviewee respond and leave the viewer to make up their own mind.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,869
    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    First - to escape from @ydoethur !

    Edit: Oh well 2nd then

    Then you shouldn't have told me about the new thread, should you? I hadn't noticed it.

    Your entire strategy unravelled on that basis...
    We can all get undone by lurking @IshmaelZ 's ! A tiger!

  • Where the f is Sunak???
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    First - to escape from @ydoethur !

    Edit: Oh well 2nd then

    Then you shouldn't have told me about the new thread, should you? I hadn't noticed it.

    Your entire strategy unravelled on that basis...
    A complete ka crash, aswan might say.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    First - to escape from @ydoethur !

    Edit: Oh well 2nd then

    Then you shouldn't have told me about the new thread, should you? I hadn't noticed it.

    Your entire strategy unravelled on that basis...
    A complete ka crash, aswan might say.
    Your post was presumably an inSiwa job.
  • Where the f is Sunak???

    Locked in the toilet?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    Where the f is Sunak???

    Locked in the toilet?
    Boris to random friend on the phone: Look, when I said he need slashing, that wasn't quite what I meant.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    Where the f is Sunak???

    Staying away from Boris, I expect. He's far too slick to be associated with a second lockdown.
  • Isn't there a massive march this weekend of anti-lockdown/vax people in London?

    Outside mostly - but a lot of shared car journeys down, mingling in pubs afterwards.
  • Where the f is Sunak???

    He's a midget submarine.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    MaxPB said:

    Where the f is Sunak???

    Staying away from Boris, I expect. He's far too slick to be associated with a second lockdown.
    Alternatively, perhaps he'd just been told he would need to find the money for it?
  • My money's on the Lib Dems. 💷
  • Rishi Sunak ~ I is a Shrunk

    Awful grammar, but still!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866
    I have cashed out on the market
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Where the f is Sunak???

    Staying away from Boris, I expect. He's far too slick to be associated with a second lockdown.
    Alternatively, perhaps he'd just been told he would need to find the money for it?
    Gone begging to the Bank to restart the printing press then!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,869
    On thread - before we all get thrown off and Mike makes it a commenatry site.

    Boris is capable of fighting back. I (longstanding Tory) don't think that's the right course, and if there were a leadership election I would not vote for him. On balance I think he should step down. I'd not currently urge him to do so though.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    Isn't there a massive march this weekend of anti-lockdown/vax people in London?

    Outside mostly - but a lot of shared car journeys down, mingling in pubs afterwards.

    Oh no. They might all catch it and die. What a shame. So sad.
  • Freedom hating Boris Johnson is in tune with the public. Might help the Blue Meanies in Salop.

    The vast majority of Britons say they wouldn't mind showing a Covid pass in order to enter events or venues

    Wouldn't mind - 80%
    Would mind - 15%


    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1471153039084036101
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Where the f is Sunak???

    Staying away from Boris, I expect. He's far too slick to be associated with a second lockdown.
    Alternatively, perhaps he'd just been told he would need to find the money for it?
    Gone begging to the Bank to restart the printing press then!
    I was thinking rather that it would explain a long sojourn in the toilet...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    Never mind a Dukla Prague Away Kit, all I want for Christmas is a Negative Lateral Flow Test.
  • Freedom hating Boris Johnson is in tune with the public. Might help the Blue Meanies in Salop.

    The vast majority of Britons say they wouldn't mind showing a Covid pass in order to enter events or venues

    Wouldn't mind - 80%
    Would mind - 15%


    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1471153039084036101

    I wonder how many of the filthy bastards would shit in the street.
  • South Africa COVID update: Nearly 27,000 new cases, biggest one-day increase on record

    - New cases: 26,976
    - Average: 23,041 (+1,019)
    - In hospital: 7,339 (+444)
    - In ICU: 497 (+28)
    - New deaths: 54
    - Average: 27 (+3)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    Freedom hating Boris Johnson is in tune with the public. Might help the Blue Meanies in Salop.

    The vast majority of Britons say they wouldn't mind showing a Covid pass in order to enter events or venues

    Wouldn't mind - 80%
    Would mind - 15%


    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1471153039084036101

    I wonder how many of the filthy bastards would shit in the street.
    Who cares as long as they don't take pineapple with pizza?
  • MaxPB said:

    Isn't there a massive march this weekend of anti-lockdown/vax people in London?

    Outside mostly - but a lot of shared car journeys down, mingling in pubs afterwards.

    Oh no. They might all catch it and die. What a shame. So sad.
    True. But they will return home and spread it around before they succumb.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    Germany say they might run out of vaccines before the end of the year. How is that even possible?! Pfizer and Moderna have become really very good at making them and there were loads of slots for November delivery. Did they just fail to plan ahead?!
  • MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Where the f is Sunak???

    Staying away from Boris, I expect. He's far too slick to be associated with a second lockdown.
    Alternatively, perhaps he'd just been told he would need to find the money for it?
    Gone begging to the Bank to restart the printing press then!
    Even if they get rid of Boris, Mr Inflation is never popular....
  • Booster doses of both the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccines are likely to offer a substantial increase in protection against the new and highly transmissible Omicron variant, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci said Wednesday, adding that “at this point, there is no need for a very specific booster” designed especially to fight Omicron.

    NY Times
  • At a World Health Organization meeting on Wednesday, scientists offered some encouraging findings about immunity against the fast-spreading Omicron variant of the coronavirus. Several laboratory studies suggest that so-called T cells in vaccinated people can put up a strong defense against the variant, which could help prevent severe disease, hospitalization and death.

    NY Times
  • MaxPB said:

    Germany say they might run out of vaccines before the end of the year. How is that even possible?! Pfizer and Moderna have become really very good at making them and there were loads of slots for November delivery. Did they just fail to plan ahead?!

    The nasty evil Brits have bought them all up.....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    edited December 2021
    Seems fairly clear the Tories aren't going to lose the seat by a big margin like they did in Chesham and Amersham.
  • MaxPB said:

    Isn't there a massive march this weekend of anti-lockdown/vax people in London?

    Outside mostly - but a lot of shared car journeys down, mingling in pubs afterwards.

    Oh no. They might all catch it and die. What a shame. So sad.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4uivPpzCGo
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Not just Dr Doom worried.

    European CDC says a "rapid increase in Omicron cases is imminent," warns that exponential growth will "rapidly outweigh any benefits" of a potentially reduced severity

    What happens if they have totally misjudged this?
  • Not just Dr Doom worried.

    European CDC says a "rapid increase in Omicron cases is imminent," warns that exponential growth will "rapidly outweigh any benefits" of a potentially reduced severity

    What happens if they have totally misjudged this?

    What they may have totally misjudged is not letting Covid spread in the summer and autumn while the hospitals could cope with demand.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    edited December 2021


    That FT image again. As we were talking about on the previous thread, there really are very few people who haven't either had some kind of vaccine or been previously infected. I worry for countries that didn't take the hit of 8-10m infections from July to December because that chart with the second most light blue being replaced by red would be cause for lockdowns or simply refusing COVID treatment to keep the healthcare lights on.

    @stodge to answer your earlier question, yes we do need a better outreach programme for older people who haven't yet had any vaccine doses, need a second or a third. That's easily where the most good can be done yet there's no one knocking on doors to explain the benefits of the first or next dose. It's completely stupid.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,402
    I think the uncertain voters of North Shropshire want to be on the winning side. I now think that will be the Lib Dems.
  • The Unherd interview is very good.
  • Robert Colvile
    @rcolvile
    ·
    1h
    It does feel extremely weird for that press conference not to be accompanied by new restrictions.

    I think they want us all to get it. It could be over by Christmas, and over for the NHS by the end of January.

    If it is 8x as transmissible as Delta, there's no point doing NPIs.

    I might set out to deliberately catch it as soon as possible. Have had Covid 4 weeks ago, and just had a booster, my immune system is rocking.

    Party like it's 2019!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    MaxPB said:

    Germany say they might run out of vaccines before the end of the year. How is that even possible?! Pfizer and Moderna have become really very good at making them and there were loads of slots for November delivery. Did they just fail to plan ahead?!

    Old government didn't bother?

    New government left with egg on face.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482
    The markets:

    I think the big worry has to be China. At least if we take them at their word, very low natural immunity. And a vaccine that might be barely effective at all against omicron, a variant that is seemingly so infectious that lockdowns won’t contain it.

    Coming on top of a contraction in market liquidity and a reckoning for the property market, which underpins the entire banking and savings model.

    No idea how to play it. Just stay employed I suppose. If things tank I’ll remortgage my house and take a 25 year view on a global equity tracker.

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 5,083

    Freedom hating Boris Johnson is in tune with the public. Might help the Blue Meanies in Salop.

    The vast majority of Britons say they wouldn't mind showing a Covid pass in order to enter events or venues

    Wouldn't mind - 80%
    Would mind - 15%


    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1471153039084036101

    Freedom hating Boris Johnson is in tune with the public. Might help the Blue Meanies in Salop.

    The vast majority of Britons say they wouldn't mind showing a Covid pass in order to enter events or venues

    Wouldn't mind - 80%
    Would mind - 15%


    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1471153039084036101

    I actually don't have a great problem with it. Certainly in the short term. Far less bothersome than masks.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    edited December 2021
    We've always been told that people living in London are the most intelligent in the country. How then do we explain this?

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/21ae5800-5d1e-11ec-9cd9-b6f698a4b9a5
    "A third of Londoners are completely unvaccinated, as a surge of Omicron cases sweeps the capital.

    The proportion of the population without a single jab is three times as high in London as in the country as a whole, and the 14 areas with the country’s lowest vaccination rates are all London boroughs. In Westminster four in ten people have not had a single jab."
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    moonshine said:

    The markets:

    I think the big worry has to be China. At least if we take them at their word, very low natural immunity. And a vaccine that might be barely effective at all against omicron, a variant that is seemingly so infectious that lockdowns won’t contain it.

    Coming on top of a contraction in market liquidity and a reckoning for the property market, which underpins the entire banking and savings model.

    No idea how to play it. Just stay employed I suppose. If things tank I’ll remortgage my house and take a 25 year view on a global equity tracker.

    What reckoning are you anticipating in the property market?
  • This is an incredible article by Ed Conway and the closest I've seen any of the media come to calling BS on the numbers being bandied about: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-why-health-secretarys-200k-omicron-case-claim-was-back-of-envelope-sum-not-a-definitive-number-12495814

    What's interesting is the methodology they've used to create the number is completely twisted. Starting point of 78k cases of which 20% was Omicron so therefore there were 23k Omicron cases. 😕

    Doubling every 2.5 days so therefore they doubled it every 1.9 days. 😕

    If you take 20% of 78k that's 15.6k cases as a starting point. Double that every 2.5 days then would lead to ~70k cases by 13 December not 200k.

    The numbers are just complete BS. Good that Conway has all but called it out, but not directly.

    Finally there's an interesting point from him on the article, based on the multiplications that the UKHSA is claiming everyone in the entire country will have had Omicron by Christmas Day.

    So either this is all going to burn out very rapidly and is much ado about nothing, or its going to burn out very rapidly and we're screwed but there's nothing we can do about it. Or its not multiplying like projected and the projections are BS and we should keep calm.

    Either way, we should be calm because we don't have reason to worry - or we should keep calm because there's nothing we can do but wait for this wave to wash over us. No reason to panic or do anything at all either way.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FPT
    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    Philip is the only Johnson fan left

    Not true - I'd count myself as a supporter, despite also thinking he's been entirely useless for months. I'd currently not employ his corpse as a doorstop.

    However.. if he can be arsed to get out of bed one morning then he's still a capable poitician.
    I'm intrigued. Whose corpse would you employ as a doorstop?
    Big money in that you know. Ecorpsefordoorstops.com does a roaring trade. Mummy's are the top sellers (as they last) and most subject to fakery too.
    There is an American friend of mine who seriously tried to source a mummy on the black market so he could source a Victorian-style mummy unwrapping party 😂

    Apparently there is a specific piece of US legislation that bans the purchase of mummies…

    (He was inspired because I had borrowed a mummy from a museum in Mansfield and he happened to be around when it was shipped to my place in London)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Where the f is Sunak???

    Looking under the sofa for some spare coppers?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 5,083
    fpt

    I am still refusing to panic about Omicron. The doom all seems to be from models based on rapidly rising cases but almost nothing on virulence. Cases started to rise in London three weeks ago. What is the actual position of London hospitals. Are they starting to come under strain? How many on ventilators? In ICU? Being given oxygen?

    I'll happily change my stance if someone will give me the data.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MaxPB said:



    That FT image again. As we were talking about on the previous thread, there really are very few people who haven't either had some kind of vaccine or been previously infected. I worry for countries that didn't take the hit of 8-10m infections from July to December because that chart with the second most light blue being replaced by red would be cause for lockdowns or simply refusing COVID treatment to keep the healthcare lights on.

    @stodge to answer your earlier question, yes we do need a better outreach programme for older people who haven't yet had any vaccine doses, need a second or a third. That's easily where the most good can be done yet there's no one knocking on doors to explain the benefits of the first or next dose. It's completely stupid.

    The problem with the outreach you describe in your second paragraph is that it isn’t scaleable.

    Is a volunteer (or a nurse with a fridge in a van) better used running a vaccine centre or going out convincing singles and doubles?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617
    I've been otherwise engaged and have missed the presser, but I gather that the general gist is that we limp through to Christmas (but try to limit your contact with other people - unless you're iSAGE in which case you want a straightforward, return to March 2020 hard lockdown starting now,) and then there are about 37 million cases between Boxing Day and New Year's Day and all the hospitals burst into flames simultaneously. Have I got it about right?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    moonshine said:

    The markets:

    I think the big worry has to be China. At least if we take them at their word, very low natural immunity. And a vaccine that might be barely effective at all against omicron, a variant that is seemingly so infectious that lockdowns won’t contain it.

    Coming on top of a contraction in market liquidity and a reckoning for the property market, which underpins the entire banking and savings model.

    No idea how to play it. Just stay employed I suppose. If things tank I’ll remortgage my house and take a 25 year view on a global equity tracker.

    What reckoning are you anticipating in the property market?
    Evergrande going pop
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    Andy_JS said:

    We've always been told that people living in London are the most intelligent in the country. How then do we explain this?

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/21ae5800-5d1e-11ec-9cd9-b6f698a4b9a5
    "A third of Londoners are completely unvaccinated, as a surge of Omicron cases sweeps the capital.

    The proportion of the population without a single jab is three times as high in London as in the country as a whole, and the 14 areas with the country’s lowest vaccination rates are all London boroughs. In Westminster four in ten people have not had a single jab."

    Would you Adam and Eve it?

    (Is there a Cockney rhyming slang for antivaxxer?)
  • pigeon said:

    I've been otherwise engaged and have missed the presser, but I gather that the general gist is that we limp through to Christmas (but try to limit your contact with other people - unless you're iSAGE in which case you want a straightforward, return to March 2020 hard lockdown starting now,) and then there are about 37 million cases between Boxing Day and New Year's Day and all the hospitals burst into flames simultaneously. Have I got it about right?

    Still more optimistic than Witty's take.....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,757
    Interesting vid

    It is as I have anticipated. There are two camps on No 10 parties, those who believe parties held in No 10 have occurred and have forgiven Johnson and those who do not believe they occurred.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,651

    This is an incredible article by Ed Conway and the closest I've seen any of the media come to calling BS on the numbers being bandied about: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-why-health-secretarys-200k-omicron-case-claim-was-back-of-envelope-sum-not-a-definitive-number-12495814

    What's interesting is the methodology they've used to create the number is completely twisted. Starting point of 78k cases of which 20% was Omicron so therefore there were 23k Omicron cases. 😕

    Doubling every 2.5 days so therefore they doubled it every 1.9 days. 😕

    If you take 20% of 78k that's 15.6k cases as a starting point. Double that every 2.5 days then would lead to ~70k cases by 13 December not 200k.

    The numbers are just complete BS. Good that Conway has all but called it out, but not directly.

    Finally there's an interesting point from him on the article, based on the multiplications that the UKHSA is claiming everyone in the entire country will have had Omicron by Christmas Day.

    So either this is all going to burn out very rapidly and is much ado about nothing, or its going to burn out very rapidly and we're screwed but there's nothing we can do about it. Or its not multiplying like projected and the projections are BS and we should keep calm.

    Either way, we should be calm because we don't have reason to worry - or we should keep calm because there's nothing we can do but wait for this wave to wash over us. No reason to panic or do anything at all either way.

    Yes, yes, this is about the 400th comment on here saying the numbers are rubbish.

    We all know that but the public doesn't read us, do they? They listen to and read the guff that's out there.

    The problem is, it's close to Christmas and everyone's memory of the wretched 2020 informs their actions now. They don't want to catch the virus not because they're worried they'll need to be in hospital or die but because they'll miss seeing their loved ones on Christmas Day (or having to be with their families in Christmas Day if you prefer).

    Your logic or desire to downplay any political disadvantage to the Government (this is a politics site, after all) comes up against the rocks of sentimentality and memory and falls apart.

    No one is panicking, everyone just wants a proper Christmas. If that means, to paraphrase the Prime Minister, we aren't all "cheek by jowl" in the run up, most will happily give that up to be with family, friends and loved ones on the big day.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    pigeon said:

    I've been otherwise engaged and have missed the presser, but I gather that the general gist is that we limp through to Christmas (but try to limit your contact with other people - unless you're iSAGE in which case you want a straightforward, return to March 2020 hard lockdown starting now,) and then there are about 37 million cases between Boxing Day and New Year's Day and all the hospitals burst into flames simultaneously. Have I got it about right?

    I hope not, I am working the week between Chrisymas and New Year. I was anticipating a quiet week.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    MaxPB said:

    Germany say they might run out of vaccines before the end of the year. How is that even possible?! Pfizer and Moderna have become really very good at making them and there were loads of slots for November delivery. Did they just fail to plan ahead?!

    The EU has over 200m unadministered doses, which are basically all Pfizer and Moderna, so I have no idea how they could run out

    See: https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html#uptake-tab
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Charles said:

    Where the f is Sunak???

    Looking under the sofa for some spare coppers?
    They're not there, they're all too busy trying to find excuses not to investigate lockdown parties.
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    moonshine said:

    The markets:

    I think the big worry has to be China. At least if we take them at their word, very low natural immunity. And a vaccine that might be barely effective at all against omicron, a variant that is seemingly so infectious that lockdowns won’t contain it.

    Coming on top of a contraction in market liquidity and a reckoning for the property market, which underpins the entire banking and savings model.

    No idea how to play it. Just stay employed I suppose. If things tank I’ll remortgage my house and take a 25 year view on a global equity tracker.

    What reckoning are you anticipating in the property market?
    Evergrande going pop
    Thanks, I hadn't made the connection that it was a reckoning in China. Silly of me, rereading the post.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617
    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    I've been otherwise engaged and have missed the presser, but I gather that the general gist is that we limp through to Christmas (but try to limit your contact with other people - unless you're iSAGE in which case you want a straightforward, return to March 2020 hard lockdown starting now,) and then there are about 37 million cases between Boxing Day and New Year's Day and all the hospitals burst into flames simultaneously. Have I got it about right?

    I hope not, I am working the week between Christmas and New Year. I was anticipating a quiet week.
    A quiet week, in the middle of the Omicronpanic?!?! One would laugh were it not for the fact that this would be in very bad taste. You have my sympathies, Sir.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    People don't want the virus cos they don't want to be ill.
    It's not complicated really.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    How long is it likely to be before we finally know how dangerous/mild the new variant is?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    dixiedean said:

    People don't want the virus cos they don't want to be ill.
    It's not complicated really.

    On that subject hope you and the family are improving.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,153

    Andy_JS said:

    We've always been told that people living in London are the most intelligent in the country. How then do we explain this?

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/21ae5800-5d1e-11ec-9cd9-b6f698a4b9a5
    "A third of Londoners are completely unvaccinated, as a surge of Omicron cases sweeps the capital.

    The proportion of the population without a single jab is three times as high in London as in the country as a whole, and the 14 areas with the country’s lowest vaccination rates are all London boroughs. In Westminster four in ten people have not had a single jab."

    Would you Adam and Eve it?

    (Is there a Cockney rhyming slang for antivaxxer?)
    Someone who sorts oysters by quality.

    Yes, a shellfish ranker.
    Have we always been told that people in London are the most intelligent in the country? I make no comment on what the truth of the matter is, but the stereotype is that they're a lot of blithering idiots whose knowledge of the world beyond Greater London is laughably tiny.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617

    pigeon said:

    I've been otherwise engaged and have missed the presser, but I gather that the general gist is that we limp through to Christmas (but try to limit your contact with other people - unless you're iSAGE in which case you want a straightforward, return to March 2020 hard lockdown starting now,) and then there are about 37 million cases between Boxing Day and New Year's Day and all the hospitals burst into flames simultaneously. Have I got it about right?

    Still more optimistic than Witty's take.....
    :scream:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    How long is it likely to be before we finally know how dangerous/mild the new variant is?

    A couple of months, because remember we also have a load of people with delta and we don't really know who has what, so lots of overlapping data. You won't be able to easily separate out all the moving pieces of delta, omicron, vaccine, booster, age, prior infection etc.
  • Goodness me, Keir Starmer in tune with the public and not @Philip_Thompson!?! I am shocked!
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482
    edited December 2021
    ydoethur said:

    moonshine said:

    The markets:

    I think the big worry has to be China. At least if we take them at their word, very low natural immunity. And a vaccine that might be barely effective at all against omicron, a variant that is seemingly so infectious that lockdowns won’t contain it.

    Coming on top of a contraction in market liquidity and a reckoning for the property market, which underpins the entire banking and savings model.

    No idea how to play it. Just stay employed I suppose. If things tank I’ll remortgage my house and take a 25 year view on a global equity tracker.

    What reckoning are you anticipating in the property market?
    Prices falling, construction groups tipping over. The Party will think they’re clever enough to keep a lid on the contagion. But I personally doubt that.

    Most Chinese middle class keep their savings in “wealth management products” that have no legal recourse to the issuing banks but are assumed by savers to carry an implicit state guarantee. They’re typically heavily exposed to property either directly or indirectly. When you look at a typical Chinese corporate somewhere like Shandong, they tend to be a business attached to property speculation, carefully veiled.

    Outside Tier 1 and certainly when you get to Tier 3, the municipal and provincial governments carry very high concentration in their tax base to a relatively small number of firms. And it’s all Peter and Paul territory. I’ve seen an instance where every industrial producer in one city was asked by the local party official to cross lend to each other, Japanese keiretsu style. But all that does when things are built on dust is increase the contagion risk. What you then tend to see is state owned enterprises (or even local governments directly) taking on zombie assets. “Oh well our margins are shit because of asset X, strip that out and we look ok”. Lost count how many times I was told that.

    And this is without getting into Hong Kong, which is essentially a tool to lever offshore capital for the onshore ponzi.

    Some look at China’s $3tr of FX reserves and ask what the big deal is. Well those $3tr are not as robust as you would think if China needs to weather a storm to cover an import gap. They can also not be used to bail out domestic currency debt without breaking the so called Impossible Trinity, essentially by relaxing capital controls for the bail out they sink the currency to levels that might cause impoverishment through inflation.

    They’ve mitigated some of this import risk to an extent through the ownership of overseas resource assets. But I just find it impossible to believe they can keep the tiger back in the cage once it’s out.

    I am told the international price of diamonds has spiked to levels that make no sense, except when you realise there’s a thriving trade of Hong Kong dealers using them as a tool for holders of yuan to offshore wealth outside of capital controls and they’re just holding them. Much like has happened with Bitcoin, and formerly the copper carry trade used by wealthy individuals that setup commodity trading firms purely for that purpose.

    The rubber band is stretched so far when you see the micro detail it’s hard to understand how it didn’t snap years ago. There are banks that without doubt have 40% of their assets being undeclared bad debt. But it’s a big country, who knows it might carry on stretching for 10 more years before snapping for all I know.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    moonshine said:

    The markets:

    I think the big worry has to be China. At least if we take them at their word, very low natural immunity. And a vaccine that might be barely effective at all against omicron, a variant that is seemingly so infectious that lockdowns won’t contain it.

    Coming on top of a contraction in market liquidity and a reckoning for the property market, which underpins the entire banking and savings model.

    No idea how to play it. Just stay employed I suppose. If things tank I’ll remortgage my house and take a 25 year view on a global equity tracker.

    What reckoning are you anticipating in the property market?
    Evergrande going pop
    Evergrande sounds like a big boat. What do they do, and own ?
  • Goodness me, Keir Starmer in tune with the public and not @Philip_Thompson!?! I am shocked!

    I don't think I'm in tune with the public, I think I'm cleverer than the public.

    The public is engaging in mass hysteria and Starmer and Boris are feeding into it rather than being leaders. Shame on them both.
  • MaxPB said:

    Where the f is Sunak???

    Staying away from Boris, I expect. He's far too slick to be associated with a second lockdown.
    Or Boris. Especially.

    Don't know how much Latin he knows (or not) but Sunak is clearly smarter than the average bear. And Boris.
  • Goodness me, Keir Starmer in tune with the public and not @Philip_Thompson!?! I am shocked!

    I don't think I'm in tune with the public, I think I'm cleverer than the public.

    The public is engaging in mass hysteria and Starmer and Boris are feeding into it rather than being leaders. Shame on them both.
    Between you and Chris, PB is so lucky to have not one, but two, of the smartest people in the room.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Lifelong Tories abandon Boris ahead of North Shropshire by-election.
    The @Telegraph went to Oswestry to test the mood ahead of polling day on Thursday and meet some of the locals. With @StevenEdginton
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/15/used-love-lifelong-tories-abandon-boris-ahead-north-shropshire/
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2021

    Goodness me, Keir Starmer in tune with the public and not @Philip_Thompson!?! I am shocked!

    I don't think I'm in tune with the public, I think I'm cleverer than the public.

    The public is engaging in mass hysteria and Starmer and Boris are feeding into it rather than being leaders. Shame on them both.
    Between you and Chris, PB is so lucky to have not one, but two, of the smartest people in the room.
    I don't think I'm the smartest in the room, but I think I am smarter than the average Joe Public, and I would say that of almost everyone on this site too.

    If I was to pick the smartest person in the room on all this then I'd have to nominate @MaxPB
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,296
    edited December 2021
    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    I've been otherwise engaged and have missed the presser, but I gather that the general gist is that we limp through to Christmas (but try to limit your contact with other people - unless you're iSAGE in which case you want a straightforward, return to March 2020 hard lockdown starting now,) and then there are about 37 million cases between Boxing Day and New Year's Day and all the hospitals burst into flames simultaneously. Have I got it about right?

    I hope not, I am working the week between Chrisymas and New Year. I was anticipating a quiet week.
    If memory serves, I believe you once said that you don't attach
    a Christian relevance to christmas. I agree, but I do get a resonance with its pagan past, the flow of seasons, one's smallness, and the connection with Nature.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756

    Andy_JS said:

    How long is it likely to be before we finally know how dangerous/mild the new variant is?

    A couple of months, because remember we also have a load of people with delta and we don't really know who has what, so lots of overlapping data. You won't be able to easily separate out all the moving pieces of delta, omicron, vaccine, booster, age, prior infection etc.
    Thanks. Didn't realise it would be as long as that.
  • Freedom hating Boris Johnson is in tune with the public. Might help the Blue Meanies in Salop.

    The vast majority of Britons say they wouldn't mind showing a Covid pass in order to enter events or venues

    Wouldn't mind - 80%
    Would mind - 15%


    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1471153039084036101

    I wonder how many of those 80% actually go to venues or events? If the 15% consists of those who regularly go clubbing and go to gigs etc and the 80% are people who wouldn't be seen dead in such places then it is a pretty meaningless poll and nightclubs are basically fucked.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    I've been otherwise engaged and have missed the presser, but I gather that the general gist is that we limp through to Christmas (but try to limit your contact with other people - unless you're iSAGE in which case you want a straightforward, return to March 2020 hard lockdown starting now,) and then there are about 37 million cases between Boxing Day and New Year's Day and all the hospitals burst into flames simultaneously. Have I got it about right?

    I hope not, I am working the week between Christmas and New Year. I was anticipating a quiet week.
    A quiet week, in the middle of the Omicronpanic?!?! One would laugh were it not for the fact that this would be in very bad taste. You have my sympathies, Sir.
    I was anticipating it being quiet a month ago!, not now...
  • Freedom hating Boris Johnson is in tune with the public. Might help the Blue Meanies in Salop.

    The vast majority of Britons say they wouldn't mind showing a Covid pass in order to enter events or venues

    Wouldn't mind - 80%
    Would mind - 15%


    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1471153039084036101

    I wonder how many of those 80% actually go to venues or events? If the 15% consists of those who regularly go clubbing and go to gigs etc and the 80% are people who wouldn't be seen dead in such places then it is a pretty meaningless poll and nightclubs are basically fucked.
    Indeed its about as meaningful as those polls that say people would endorse taxes on those other than them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    WHO make it sound like Omicron is end of the world.....

    https://youtu.be/4UW1UFmgUM0.

    That guy you see with the end of the world is nigh sign has been on the phone, even he thinks it might be a bit pessimistic.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,461

    fpt

    I am still refusing to panic about Omicron. The doom all seems to be from models based on rapidly rising cases but almost nothing on virulence. Cases started to rise in London three weeks ago. What is the actual position of London hospitals. Are they starting to come under strain? How many on ventilators? In ICU? Being given oxygen?

    I'll happily change my stance if someone will give me the data.

    In Guateng hospitals are under no pressure, they had below average deaths last week and they are past peak. Hospital doctors there confirm that omicron is absolutely nothing like delta in its deadliness. But apparently we need to ignore this information as South Africans are different to us and their doctors are lying
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    Toms said:

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    I've been otherwise engaged and have missed the presser, but I gather that the general gist is that we limp through to Christmas (but try to limit your contact with other people - unless you're iSAGE in which case you want a straightforward, return to March 2020 hard lockdown starting now,) and then there are about 37 million cases between Boxing Day and New Year's Day and all the hospitals burst into flames simultaneously. Have I got it about right?

    I hope not, I am working the week between Chrisymas and New Year. I was anticipating a quiet week.
    If memory serves, I believe you once said that you don't attach
    a Christian relevance to christmas. I agree, but I do get a resonance with its pagan past, the flow of seasons, one's smallness, and the connection with Nature.
    Yes, I am in a Nonconformist church, and like the Scots we don't traditionally make much fuss about Christmas.

    It wasn't the reason I volunteered though. I did so so my colleagues could have time off with family, or visit family abroad that they often haven't seen for 2 years.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Charles said:

    FPT

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    Philip is the only Johnson fan left

    Not true - I'd count myself as a supporter, despite also thinking he's been entirely useless for months. I'd currently not employ his corpse as a doorstop.

    However.. if he can be arsed to get out of bed one morning then he's still a capable poitician.
    I'm intrigued. Whose corpse would you employ as a doorstop?
    Big money in that you know. Ecorpsefordoorstops.com does a roaring trade. Mummy's are the top sellers (as they last) and most subject to fakery too.
    There is an American friend of mine who seriously tried to source a mummy on the black market so he could source a Victorian-style mummy unwrapping party 😂

    Apparently there is a specific piece of US legislation that bans the purchase of mummies…

    (He was inspired because I had borrowed a mummy from a museum in Mansfield and he happened to be around when it was shipped to my place in London)
    What an utterly creepy piece of shit. Why would you be friends with someone like that?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    I've been otherwise engaged and have missed the presser, but I gather that the general gist is that we limp through to Christmas (but try to limit your contact with other people - unless you're iSAGE in which case you want a straightforward, return to March 2020 hard lockdown starting now,) and then there are about 37 million cases between Boxing Day and New Year's Day and all the hospitals burst into flames simultaneously. Have I got it about right?

    I hope not, I am working the week between Chrisymas and New Year. I was anticipating a quiet week.
    Hope the move to general practice goes well for you.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866
    edited December 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    How long is it likely to be before we finally know how dangerous/mild the new variant is?

    Two weeks time wil give us a good read on what is happening in South Africa.

    Has it burnt out quickly in Guateng or has it surged and hung around? And what does that mean for deaths. We'll know by then.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,162

    Freedom hating Boris Johnson is in tune with the public. Might help the Blue Meanies in Salop.

    The vast majority of Britons say they wouldn't mind showing a Covid pass in order to enter events or venues

    Wouldn't mind - 80%
    Would mind - 15%


    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1471153039084036101

    I wonder how many of those 80% actually go to venues or events? If the 15% consists of those who regularly go clubbing and go to gigs etc and the 80% are people who wouldn't be seen dead in such places then it is a pretty meaningless poll and nightclubs are basically fucked.
    As vaccinated people can still get and transmit the virus, presumably the point of a vaccine passport is largely merely to encourage unvaccinated people to get jabbed so they can continue to do the social things they like to do.

    So to me it feels like it should be really easy to show if a vaccine passport scheme is working by how many first doses are given out after it starts operating, relative to where we were in the last few weeks before it started operating - i.e. is it actually encouraging the unvaccinated to get jabbed, or are they just choosing to no longer do the same things as before if they have to get jabbed to do it?

    Given how long they've been used in Scotland it feels like there must be enough data to have at least a first stab at answering that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    I've been otherwise engaged and have missed the presser, but I gather that the general gist is that we limp through to Christmas (but try to limit your contact with other people - unless you're iSAGE in which case you want a straightforward, return to March 2020 hard lockdown starting now,) and then there are about 37 million cases between Boxing Day and New Year's Day and all the hospitals burst into flames simultaneously. Have I got it about right?

    I hope not, I am working the week between Chrisymas and New Year. I was anticipating a quiet week.
    Hope the move to general practice goes well for you.
    ??

    My next move is to retirement!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,757

    Goodness me, Keir Starmer in tune with the public and not @Philip_Thompson!?! I am shocked!

    I don't think I'm in tune with the public, I think I'm cleverer than the public.

    The public is engaging in mass hysteria and Starmer and Boris are feeding into it rather than being leaders. Shame on them both.
    Between you and Chris, PB is so lucky to have not one, but two, of the smartest people in the room.
    I don't think I'm the smartest in the room, but I think I am smarter than the average Joe Public, and I would say that of almost everyone on this site too.

    If I was to pick the smartest person in the room on all this then I'd have to nominate @MaxPB
    Hands up all those who think Phil is "smarter than almost everyone on this site too".

    Come on don't be shy...a show of hands...come on...
  • fpt

    I am still refusing to panic about Omicron. The doom all seems to be from models based on rapidly rising cases but almost nothing on virulence. Cases started to rise in London three weeks ago. What is the actual position of London hospitals. Are they starting to come under strain? How many on ventilators? In ICU? Being given oxygen?

    I'll happily change my stance if someone will give me the data.

    But when did Omicron start to be a significant proportion of overall cases ? You wouldn't expect any meaningful effect on hospitalisation rates until about 2 weeks after that.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866

    Andy_JS said:

    How long is it likely to be before we finally know how dangerous/mild the new variant is?

    A couple of months, because remember we also have a load of people with delta and we don't really know who has what, so lots of overlapping data. You won't be able to easily separate out all the moving pieces of delta, omicron, vaccine, booster, age, prior infection etc.
    I think that given the low levels of other in SA we should get a good picture in a fortnight - maybe a week longer if Christmas messes up SA reporting lag. .
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,296
    edited December 2021
    Foxy said:

    Toms said:

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    I've been otherwise engaged and have missed the presser, but I gather that the general gist is that we limp through to Christmas (but try to limit your contact with other people - unless you're iSAGE in which case you want a straightforward, return to March 2020 hard lockdown starting now,) and then there are about 37 million cases between Boxing Day and New Year's Day and all the hospitals burst into flames simultaneously. Have I got it about right?

    I hope not, I am working the week between Chrisymas and New Year. I was anticipating a quiet week.
    If memory serves, I believe you once said that you don't attach
    a Christian relevance to christmas. I agree, but I do get a resonance with its pagan past, the flow of seasons, one's smallness, and the connection with Nature.
    Yes, I am in a Nonconformist church, and like the Scots we don't traditionally make much fuss about Christmas.

    It wasn't the reason I volunteered though. I did so so my colleagues could have time off with family, or visit family abroad that they often haven't seen for 2 years.
    That was a kind gesture. I'd like to think I'd do something similar.

    oops: I feel a fable coming on.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 5,083

    fpt

    I am still refusing to panic about Omicron. The doom all seems to be from models based on rapidly rising cases but almost nothing on virulence. Cases started to rise in London three weeks ago. What is the actual position of London hospitals. Are they starting to come under strain? How many on ventilators? In ICU? Being given oxygen?

    I'll happily change my stance if someone will give me the data.

    In Guateng hospitals are under no pressure, they had below average deaths last week and they are past peak. Hospital doctors there confirm that omicron is absolutely nothing like delta in its deadliness. But apparently we need to ignore this information as South Africans are different to us and their doctors are lying
    Yep. It can't be the end of the world as South Africa will still be there afterwards. The only issue is whether they've had so much covid already that almost everyone had prior immunity and that our vaccines won't work.

    Any updates from places like Denmark and Norway where they probably have less of a immune wall than we do?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572

    Goodness me, Keir Starmer in tune with the public and not @Philip_Thompson!?! I am shocked!

    I don't think I'm in tune with the public, I think I'm cleverer than the public.

    The public is engaging in mass hysteria and Starmer and Boris are feeding into it rather than being leaders. Shame on them both.
    I don’t think the public is engaging in mass hysteria. On Sunday and tonight I’ve been Santa for a local lions group, visiting houses collecting and providing magic for the kids. I’ve seen nothing to suggest hysteria. Football crowds are full.
    Of course people are making rational choices and maybe binning off the shit works drinks so that they can do the events they want. But that’s not hysteria, it’s being sensible.
This discussion has been closed.