There are another 20,169,670 eligible people who need boosters by the end of this month.
At 100% uptake, they'd have to do 1.19m a day to hit the target.
At 90% uptake, 1.07m a day.
At 80% uptake, 949k a day.
At 70% uptake, 831k a day.
Minus those who have tested positive within four weeks and are therefore ineligible. At 50k cases a day that must be a fair few. Marginal difference I guess.
I can certainly see way over 100-200k cases per day on the official numbers, so i guess that's another 2 million off the total.
656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
My wife heard on the twitters that the vaccination centre at Ingliston was quiet between 9-5, but busy before and after that, presumably because people are at work, so she's off there to be boostered as a walk-in.
My hope is that, once people have stopped work for Christmas, and with some extra centres being opened (e.g.at Wembley), we should have some monstrous large days of vaccination. But they will have to get the news out. We didn't find out that the pharmacy round the corner was doing boosters yesterday until five minutes before they shut.
Pretty sure this cnut wouldn't pass the Voight-Kampff test.
Or any test. I caught his 'speech' yesterday and it had the usual effect on me - utter disbelief that he was an MP. He'd be a real problem for me if I were also an MP. It would interfere with my independence and judgement. Eg there could be a bill proposing that it be made compulsory by law to self-isolate for 6 months if you got a pimple on your nose and if I saw Swayne in the 'No' lobby I'd have to vote Yes or abstain.
This lady seems to be something of a heroine in the antivax movement. I can see why; she has some very convincing arguments.
Nat @Arwenstar Would you ever take a shit in the street in broad daylight in full view of everyone? You wouldn’t. Because it would be disgusting and undignified. So why on earth would you show your vaccination card to get inside a theatre? https://twitter.com/Arwenstar/status/1471115539804209156
I wonder if she's secretly been vaxxed and doesn't want to admit it publicly?
I suspect it's more likely she took a shit in the street in broad daylight in full view of everyone, and is trying to get ahead of the story.
It is a pretty crap analogy!
Having a shit in the street is a public health hazard, similar to being unvaxxed, not its opposite.
There are another 20,169,670 eligible people who need boosters by the end of this month.
At 100% uptake, they'd have to do 1.19m a day to hit the target.
At 90% uptake, 1.07m a day.
At 80% uptake, 949k a day.
At 70% uptake, 831k a day.
Minus those who have tested positive within four weeks and are therefore ineligible. At 50k cases a day that must be a fair few. Marginal difference I guess.
I can certainly see way over 100-200k cases per day on the official numbers, so i guess that's another 2 million off the total.
But those who have had Covid without knowing it don't realise that they shouldn't get the booster. So only those who have tested positive know that they are ineligible.
One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.
There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.
Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.
This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.
The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
Oh it absolutely is relevant.
Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
So what.
The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.
Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
So what? The point is if you wanted to avoid BrexitUK you could just as easily go to inner London or inner Manchester than NYC.
You will find rural, small town Trump voting America just as pro tighter immigration controls as rural, small town Brexit and Tory voting UK
Epping is a hell of a lot closer to inner London than Bum****, Indiana, is to NYC.
Culturally rural Epping Forest is closer to rural and smalltown America than inner London or NYC.
The other half of Epping Forest is more suburban but still not inner city in values either, more swings either way
What on earth do you think of us further out ..... in the tractor country beyond Braintree?
One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.
There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.
Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.
This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.
The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
Oh it absolutely is relevant.
Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
So what.
The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.
Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
Less of this lazy stereotyping of Stoke please!
I wonder how many people round these parts have been up Hanley....
Sorry to hear about @MaxPB’s diagnosis. It rather seems as if the oversized reaction to the booster was in fact Covid.
I have just taken a same-day PCR and am on anxious tenterhooks waiting to see if I am an asymptomatic omnicrone.
Beginning to think I may be the only person in the UK not to have done a PCR test, ever.
I have only done one, as I was told I had to, by law, upon returning from a holiday in Spain. It was a total faff, a waste of money and almost certainly a complete waste of time. The government did absolutely nothing whatsoever with it, as far as I could ascertain.
Pre-settled status EU citizens are automatically granted settled status at the end of 5 years?
Even if they've spent some or all of that abroad?
Why should EU citizens be treated differently to citizens from other countries who have to prove their residence when applying for permanent residence?
Because it's a breach of the agreement with the EU?
I mean I know this government places no store on legal agreements but even so.
It is because it is a breach of the agreement with the EU, but also that agreement is effectively an agreement with millions of our neighbours, friends, co-workers, relatives, suppliers, customers. That we renege on such key agreements so casually and quickly is shameful.
How is the agreement breached?
Proving you had met the requirements to get settled status was a part of the agreement.
For those who didn't meet the requirements, then pre-settled status was a part of the agreement as an interim stop-gap.
But why is expecting those on the stop-gap to prove they meet the agreed requirements to get settled status a breach of the agreement?
How was pre-settled status ever meant to be full settled status? If it was, surely it would have been called settled status in the first place and not something else?
That one party claims something is unlawful doesn't make it so.
Are you suggesting pre-settled status should never expire?
I suggest that if we agreed to an Independent Monitoring Authority, we should follow their guidance on interpretation.
Why on earth would you do that?
It is called being reasonable and restoring trust and confidence.
I’ve a bridge to sell if you are buying?
If it was a bridge I wanted to buy I am sure we could manage the transaction without ending up in court. Why does this government feel the need to take everything to court?
Selection bias.
You only see the disputes that end up in court
I am reminded of a story that was told to me by a builder. As he arrived (with his team) at the property to setup and start work, he overheard the very shouty client on the phone. To his lawyer. Arranging to start the legal proceedings against him (the builder) - so as to negotiate a reduction in the agreed price.
My last boss was like that. His approach to everybody - even during my interview - was to negotiate as if the counterparty was a hostile litigant.
That’s another reason I’m going to New York.
Can't tell if that is a joke or not!?
No joke.
He was not in fact supposed to be my boss. Some kind of switcheroo happened before I started.
But in my initial interview his opening gambit was something like, “what the fuck makes you think you’re qualified to work here?”
You clearly know the likes of Trump are permanently in the New York court system, so whilst the UK boss may be annoying, and there may be other good reasons for moving to NY, avoiding the use of frivolous law suits in business is not a coherent reason to move there.
Moving to NY to get away from lawfare does have the feel of moving into a lion's enclosure to get away from danger.
One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.
There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.
Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.
This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.
The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
Oh it absolutely is relevant.
Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
So what.
The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.
Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
So what? The point is if you wanted to avoid BrexitUK you could just as easily go to inner London or inner Manchester than NYC.
You will find rural, small town Trump voting America just as pro tighter immigration controls as rural, small town Brexit and Tory voting UK
Epping is a hell of a lot closer to inner London than Bum****, Indiana, is to NYC.
Culturally rural Epping Forest is closer to rural and smalltown America than inner London or NYC.
The other half of Epping Forest is more suburban but still not inner city in values either, more swings either way
I don’t recall meeting many gun-toting guys in pickup trucks when I lived round Epping Forest way.
But they do have a line dancing class at the church hall.
There are another 20,169,670 eligible people who need boosters by the end of this month.
At 100% uptake, they'd have to do 1.19m a day to hit the target.
At 90% uptake, 1.07m a day.
At 80% uptake, 949k a day.
At 70% uptake, 831k a day.
Minus those who have tested positive within four weeks and are therefore ineligible. At 50k cases a day that must be a fair few. Marginal difference I guess.
I can certainly see way over 100-200k cases per day on the official numbers, so i guess that's another 2 million off the total.
But those who have had Covid without knowing it don't realise that they shouldn't get the booster. So only those who have tested positive know that they are ineligible.
That's what i said....official case numbers of 100-200k i think is certain, especially with everybody lateral flowing left, right and centre.
This lady seems to be something of a heroine in the antivax movement. I can see why; she has some very convincing arguments.
Nat @Arwenstar Would you ever take a shit in the street in broad daylight in full view of everyone? You wouldn’t. Because it would be disgusting and undignified. So why on earth would you show your vaccination card to get inside a theatre? https://twitter.com/Arwenstar/status/1471115539804209156
Does she show a passport to get on a plane? Or carry a driving licence before getting behind the wheel? Try claiming UC without a mountain of papers. Or rent a home. Or get a new job even. There are decent arguments to support her views. But increasingly we aren't hearing them. It's Godwin all the way down.
656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
Capacity is still being ramped up. I have little doubt we will get to over 1m a day. Whether that is anywhere near enough to meet the new target is a different matter.
Yup, there a at least a couple of hundred sites being opened soon. They are trying to get quite a few up and running by Friday.
We've just had confirmation that Prime Minister Boris Johnson will lead a Downing Street press conference at 17:00 GMT.
He will be accompanied by England’s chief medical officer Chris Whitty and NHS England’s medical director of primary care Dr Nikki Kanani
This is how Boris intends to regain any popularity among the public. Lots of useless press conferences like last year.
I don’t think his appearances boost his popularity as once they might have done.
It is what he is hoping for though. I can't help thinking that a lot of the government response has more to do with trying to relive the glory days of the vaccine rollout popularity than actually doing what is right and proportionate.
This lady seems to be something of a heroine in the antivax movement. I can see why; she has some very convincing arguments.
Nat @Arwenstar Would you ever take a shit in the street in broad daylight in full view of everyone? You wouldn’t. Because it would be disgusting and undignified. So why on earth would you show your vaccination card to get inside a theatre? https://twitter.com/Arwenstar/status/1471115539804209156
Does she show a passport to get on a plane? Or carry a driving licence before getting behind the wheel? There are decent arguments to support her views. But increasingly we aren't hearing them. It's Godwin all the way down.
Trying to get inside her mind (not easy) vaccination IS different. People can feel very strongly when it comes to bodily autonomy.
I was able to hear but not see PMQs today whilst driving home. I thought that SKS was poor and Boris was not a lot better. Given the hand that he had I would have expected SKS to do much better. I also would have expected Boris to be a bit more gracious about the benefits of Labour support but that is probably asking too much.
The old favourite gag narrative of Starmer jabbers, Boris jabs is always a big winner.
Yep - gonna ride that all the way to GE24 and romp home!
(1) Whether a non-binary person can insist on having X put in their passport instead of M or F. The court ruled against this -
"Dealing with Elan-Cane’s argument that having to select “F” in applying for and using a passport is demeaning and distressing, the judgment says: “The purpose of providing that information is not to inform HMPO as to the applicants’ feelings about their sexual identity, and the applicants are not being forced to lie about those feelings.”
This is something that has application to all public bodies collecting and recording data and the absolute necessity to make sure that what is collected is accurate and based on objective verifiable information rather than to make one feel good about oneself. Police forces (Police Scotland, for instance) should pay close attention to this ruling.
(2) Should the U.K. courts go beyond the ECHR to create rights? The SC ruled that this was not for the courts but the legislature. A ruling with which no doubt Raab would agree and which rather undermines his claim that the HRA needs amending to stop British judges doing this.
"States can of course create rights going beyond those protected by the Convention, but their power to do so exists independently of the Convention and is subject to their own established constitutional principles. Under those principles, as they apply in the United Kingdom, law-making is generally the function of the legislature. If the Human Rights Act were to be interpreted as giving judges the right to find breaches of Convention rights even where the European Court would hold that United Kingdom law was in conformity with the Convention, there would be a substantial expansion of the constitutional powers of the judiciary at the expense of Parliament. Parliament is unlikely to have intended to effect such an encroachment upon parliamentary sovereignty when it enacted the Human Rights Act. The appellant's alternative argument is therefore dismissed."
One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.
There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.
Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.
This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.
The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
Oh it absolutely is relevant.
Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
So what.
The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.
Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
So what? The point is if you wanted to avoid BrexitUK you could just as easily go to inner London or inner Manchester than NYC.
You will find rural, small town Trump voting America just as pro tighter immigration controls as rural, small town Brexit and Tory voting UK
Epping is a hell of a lot closer to inner London than Bum****, Indiana, is to NYC.
Culturally rural Epping Forest is closer to rural and smalltown America than inner London or NYC.
The other half of Epping Forest is more suburban but still not inner city in values either, more swings either way
I don’t recall meeting many gun-toting guys in pickup trucks when I lived round Epping Forest way.
But they do have a line dancing class at the church hall.
Just 'cause you don't see it.. out in the country *everyone* is packing heat.
Now you've reminded me I need to get out for a run. I was hoping to feel rubbish after my jab so I'd have an excuse to slack off today, but no. No excuses.
Ha. A colleague was admiring my nimble staircase-pounding on our leaflet drive at the weekend - I explained that the secret is to spend 50 years sitting at keyboards, saves lots of leg energy when you're 70...
My guess is you find the stairs easier the more you believe in the cause. Mind over matter. Those leaflets NEED to be in voters' hands and without me they won't be!
And a certain irrational belief that people will actually read them.
Now you've reminded me I need to get out for a run. I was hoping to feel rubbish after my jab so I'd have an excuse to slack off today, but no. No excuses.
Ha. A colleague was admiring my nimble staircase-pounding on our leaflet drive at the weekend - I explained that the secret is to spend 50 years sitting at keyboards, saves lots of leg energy when you're 70...
My guess is you find the stairs easier the more you believe in the cause. Mind over matter. Those leaflets NEED to be in voters' hands and without me they won't be!
This lady seems to be something of a heroine in the antivax movement. I can see why; she has some very convincing arguments.
Nat @Arwenstar Would you ever take a shit in the street in broad daylight in full view of everyone? You wouldn’t. Because it would be disgusting and undignified. So why on earth would you show your vaccination card to get inside a theatre? https://twitter.com/Arwenstar/status/1471115539804209156
Does she show a passport to get on a plane? Or carry a driving licence before getting behind the wheel? There are decent arguments to support her views. But increasingly we aren't hearing them. It's Godwin all the way down.
Trying to get inside her mind (not easy) vaccination IS different. People can feel very strongly when it comes to bodily autonomy.
Indeed. But plenty of folk need vaccinations to go on business or holiday to plenty of places. The bodily autonomy is a psychological figleaf for summat else imho.
"It was not the result of new intelligence or new data. It was not a carefully-honed new model - the kind of thing using behavioural and virological programming sometimes churned out by members of SPI-M."
Its embarrassing total bollocks... remember this was 200k just for England, a million in England by next week....they literally fitted an exponential through a single noisy data point with the exponential factor also having plenty of uncertainty. Its the sort of nonsense even high school maths teaches against.
One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.
There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.
Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.
This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.
The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
Oh it absolutely is relevant.
Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
So what.
The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.
Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
So what? The point is if you wanted to avoid BrexitUK you could just as easily go to inner London or inner Manchester than NYC.
You will find rural, small town Trump voting America just as pro tighter immigration controls as rural, small town Brexit and Tory voting UK
Epping is a hell of a lot closer to inner London than Bum****, Indiana, is to NYC.
Culturally rural Epping Forest is closer to rural and smalltown America than inner London or NYC.
The other half of Epping Forest is more suburban but still not inner city in values either, more swings either way
I don’t recall meeting many gun-toting guys in pickup trucks when I lived round Epping Forest way.
Only because it is against the law here, if it was plenty would do.
If you wanted a part of the UK likely to vote for Trump, rural Epping Forest would be about as close as you could get
Pre-settled status EU citizens are automatically granted settled status at the end of 5 years?
Even if they've spent some or all of that abroad?
Why should EU citizens be treated differently to citizens from other countries who have to prove their residence when applying for permanent residence?
Because it's a breach of the agreement with the EU?
I mean I know this government places no store on legal agreements but even so.
It is because it is a breach of the agreement with the EU, but also that agreement is effectively an agreement with millions of our neighbours, friends, co-workers, relatives, suppliers, customers. That we renege on such key agreements so casually and quickly is shameful.
How is the agreement breached?
Proving you had met the requirements to get settled status was a part of the agreement.
For those who didn't meet the requirements, then pre-settled status was a part of the agreement as an interim stop-gap.
But why is expecting those on the stop-gap to prove they meet the agreed requirements to get settled status a breach of the agreement?
How was pre-settled status ever meant to be full settled status? If it was, surely it would have been called settled status in the first place and not something else?
That one party claims something is unlawful doesn't make it so.
Are you suggesting pre-settled status should never expire?
I suggest that if we agreed to an Independent Monitoring Authority, we should follow their guidance on interpretation.
Why on earth would you do that?
It is called being reasonable and restoring trust and confidence.
I’ve a bridge to sell if you are buying?
If it was a bridge I wanted to buy I am sure we could manage the transaction without ending up in court. Why does this government feel the need to take everything to court?
Selection bias.
You only see the disputes that end up in court
I am reminded of a story that was told to me by a builder. As he arrived (with his team) at the property to setup and start work, he overheard the very shouty client on the phone. To his lawyer. Arranging to start the legal proceedings against him (the builder) - so as to negotiate a reduction in the agreed price.
My last boss was like that. His approach to everybody - even during my interview - was to negotiate as if the counterparty was a hostile litigant.
That’s another reason I’m going to New York.
Can work but just as likely to backfire. Eg a dispute I had quite recently over a property matter. The guy I was dealing with was a pro lawyer and he was forever threatening this and that and the other. Every email I'd get would be in that bullshit lawyerspeak "offer without prejudice", "rights fully reserved", it is "regrettable", bla bla, all seeking to intimidate. And it did. I was intimidated. But I was also very very pissed off and so I totally screwed him over.
Been trying to book a booster today. My position in the "queue" keeps going up rather than down. Given up.
Aren't/weren't you just in hospital? You might think that would be a good place to give/persuade folk to get jabbed? Captive audience and all. Hope you are recovered now.
One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.
There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.
Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.
This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.
The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
Oh it absolutely is relevant.
Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
So what.
The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.
Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
So what? The point is if you wanted to avoid BrexitUK you could just as easily go to inner London or inner Manchester than NYC.
You will find rural, small town Trump voting America just as pro tighter immigration controls as rural, small town Brexit and Tory voting UK
Epping is a hell of a lot closer to inner London than Bum****, Indiana, is to NYC.
Culturally rural Epping Forest is closer to rural and smalltown America than inner London or NYC.
The other half of Epping Forest is more suburban but still not inner city in values either, more swings either way
I don’t recall meeting many gun-toting guys in pickup trucks when I lived round Epping Forest way.
Only because it is against the law here, if it was plenty would do.
If you wanted a part of the UK likely to vote for Trump, rural Epping Forest would be about as close as you could get
Isn't Epping Forest just full of rich old NIMBYs? Not exactly Trump's core vote.
"It was not the result of new intelligence or new data. It was not a carefully-honed new model - the kind of thing using behavioural and virological programming sometimes churned out by members of SPI-M."
Its embarrassing total bollocks... remember this was 200k just for England, a million in England by next week....they literally fitted an exponential through a single noisy data point with the exponential factor also having plenty of uncertainty. Its the sort of nonsense even high school maths teaches against.
It's a joke, but at the same time these are the kinds of data points that will drive us towards an unnecessary lockdown.
Pre-settled status EU citizens are automatically granted settled status at the end of 5 years?
Even if they've spent some or all of that abroad?
Why should EU citizens be treated differently to citizens from other countries who have to prove their residence when applying for permanent residence?
Because it's a breach of the agreement with the EU?
I mean I know this government places no store on legal agreements but even so.
It is because it is a breach of the agreement with the EU, but also that agreement is effectively an agreement with millions of our neighbours, friends, co-workers, relatives, suppliers, customers. That we renege on such key agreements so casually and quickly is shameful.
How is the agreement breached?
Proving you had met the requirements to get settled status was a part of the agreement.
For those who didn't meet the requirements, then pre-settled status was a part of the agreement as an interim stop-gap.
But why is expecting those on the stop-gap to prove they meet the agreed requirements to get settled status a breach of the agreement?
How was pre-settled status ever meant to be full settled status? If it was, surely it would have been called settled status in the first place and not something else?
That one party claims something is unlawful doesn't make it so.
Are you suggesting pre-settled status should never expire?
I suggest that if we agreed to an Independent Monitoring Authority, we should follow their guidance on interpretation.
Why on earth would you do that?
It is called being reasonable and restoring trust and confidence.
I’ve a bridge to sell if you are buying?
If it was a bridge I wanted to buy I am sure we could manage the transaction without ending up in court. Why does this government feel the need to take everything to court?
Selection bias.
You only see the disputes that end up in court
I am reminded of a story that was told to me by a builder. As he arrived (with his team) at the property to setup and start work, he overheard the very shouty client on the phone. To his lawyer. Arranging to start the legal proceedings against him (the builder) - so as to negotiate a reduction in the agreed price.
My last boss was like that. His approach to everybody - even during my interview - was to negotiate as if the counterparty was a hostile litigant.
That’s another reason I’m going to New York.
Can work but just as likely to backfire. Eg a dispute I had quite recently over a property matter. The guy I was dealing with was a pro lawyer and he was forever threatening this and that and the other. Every email I'd get would be in that bullshit lawyerspeak "offer without prejudice", "rights fully reserved", it is "regrettable", bla bla, all seeking to intimidate. And it did. I was intimidated. But I was also very very pissed off and so I totally screwed him over.
With my boss, it simply meant he was incapable of getting long term commitment from his team, and unable to strike up satisfying partnerships.
None of which had impeded his ascent to #3 or #4 of a multi-billion company, mind you.
Covid deaths are c 100-150 at the moment (from memory) but I believe those include “with covid”. *If* you make the distinction between “with” & “of” ( I don’t) it is plausible that “of” deaths are less than 40 pw
Typical Tory Hooray Henry bollox trying to support an absolute lying bellend Tory
Hello Malky. Nice to see you on form despite the dreich weather (at least in the east). Currently packing up a heap of assorted books promised to various people (and very glad RM now comes to collect once booked) and staring at the nevertheless small heap of Xmas cards.
Hello Carnyx, I am well behind, not even got Christmas cards yet , been very busy at work and at daughter's at weekends. Weather fairly unpleasant on west coast as well.
Pre-settled status EU citizens are automatically granted settled status at the end of 5 years?
Even if they've spent some or all of that abroad?
Why should EU citizens be treated differently to citizens from other countries who have to prove their residence when applying for permanent residence?
Because it's a breach of the agreement with the EU?
I mean I know this government places no store on legal agreements but even so.
It is because it is a breach of the agreement with the EU, but also that agreement is effectively an agreement with millions of our neighbours, friends, co-workers, relatives, suppliers, customers. That we renege on such key agreements so casually and quickly is shameful.
How is the agreement breached?
Proving you had met the requirements to get settled status was a part of the agreement.
For those who didn't meet the requirements, then pre-settled status was a part of the agreement as an interim stop-gap.
But why is expecting those on the stop-gap to prove they meet the agreed requirements to get settled status a breach of the agreement?
How was pre-settled status ever meant to be full settled status? If it was, surely it would have been called settled status in the first place and not something else?
That one party claims something is unlawful doesn't make it so.
Are you suggesting pre-settled status should never expire?
I suggest that if we agreed to an Independent Monitoring Authority, we should follow their guidance on interpretation.
Why on earth would you do that?
It is called being reasonable and restoring trust and confidence.
I’ve a bridge to sell if you are buying?
If it was a bridge I wanted to buy I am sure we could manage the transaction without ending up in court. Why does this government feel the need to take everything to court?
Selection bias.
You only see the disputes that end up in court
I am reminded of a story that was told to me by a builder. As he arrived (with his team) at the property to setup and start work, he overheard the very shouty client on the phone. To his lawyer. Arranging to start the legal proceedings against him (the builder) - so as to negotiate a reduction in the agreed price.
My last boss was like that. His approach to everybody - even during my interview - was to negotiate as if the counterparty was a hostile litigant.
That’s another reason I’m going to New York.
Can't tell if that is a joke or not!?
No joke.
He was not in fact supposed to be my boss. Some kind of switcheroo happened before I started.
But in my initial interview his opening gambit was something like, “what the fuck makes you think you’re qualified to work here?”
You clearly know the likes of Trump are permanently in the New York court system, so whilst the UK boss may be annoying, and there may be other good reasons for moving to NY, avoiding the use of frivolous law suits in business is not a coherent reason to move there.
Moving to NY to get away from lawfare does have the feel of moving into a lion's enclosure to get away from danger.
Or voting for Boris and JRM because someone dislikes the elite perhaps.
One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.
There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.
Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.
This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.
The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
Oh it absolutely is relevant.
Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
So what.
The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.
Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
So what? The point is if you wanted to avoid BrexitUK you could just as easily go to inner London or inner Manchester than NYC.
You will find rural, small town Trump voting America just as pro tighter immigration controls as rural, small town Brexit and Tory voting UK
Epping is a hell of a lot closer to inner London than Bum****, Indiana, is to NYC.
Culturally rural Epping Forest is closer to rural and smalltown America than inner London or NYC.
The other half of Epping Forest is more suburban but still not inner city in values either, more swings either way
I don’t recall meeting many gun-toting guys in pickup trucks when I lived round Epping Forest way.
Only because it is against the law here, if it was plenty would do.
If you wanted a part of the UK likely to vote for Trump, rural Epping Forest would be about as close as you could get
Isn't Epping Forest just full of rich old NIMBYs? Not exactly Trump's core vote.
In Epping town itself, Theydon Bois, the posher bits of Loughton and Buckhurst Hill plus new money in Chigwell and white working class in Waltham Abbey and rural parts of Ongar and North Weald. It would be the latter 3 where Trump could get a lot of votes here. There is even a Britain First councillor in one Waltham Abbey ward and UKIP won several councillors in Waltham Abbey too.
Trump won plenty of rich old people in the US however
Been trying to book a booster today. My position in the "queue" keeps going up rather than down. Given up.
Make sure you keep the window open, if you don't then you lose your place in the queue.
I've been leaving the tab open and active. Maybe that isn't enough - I've had it open for hours.
I did it on my phone, just kept the page open and kept the phone from sleeping or the screen turning off, it took about 5 mins. But yeah, one of the issues is shifting to another tab, that can lose you your place in the queue as well.
"It was not the result of new intelligence or new data. It was not a carefully-honed new model - the kind of thing using behavioural and virological programming sometimes churned out by members of SPI-M."
Its embarrassing total bollocks... remember this was 200k just for England, a million in England by next week....they literally fitted an exponential through a single noisy data point with the exponential factor also having plenty of uncertainty. Its the sort of nonsense even high school maths teaches against.
It's a joke, but at the same time these are the kinds of data points that will drive us towards an unnecessary lockdown.
What is most disappointing is Javid reads this crap out....he is supposed to have some concept of numbers, maths and models having been a banker.
Somebody telling me a million cases a day for England in just over a weeks time...I want to see your workings before i even think about reading it out in public.
Pre-settled status EU citizens are automatically granted settled status at the end of 5 years?
Even if they've spent some or all of that abroad?
Why should EU citizens be treated differently to citizens from other countries who have to prove their residence when applying for permanent residence?
Because it's a breach of the agreement with the EU?
I mean I know this government places no store on legal agreements but even so.
It is because it is a breach of the agreement with the EU, but also that agreement is effectively an agreement with millions of our neighbours, friends, co-workers, relatives, suppliers, customers. That we renege on such key agreements so casually and quickly is shameful.
How is the agreement breached?
Proving you had met the requirements to get settled status was a part of the agreement.
For those who didn't meet the requirements, then pre-settled status was a part of the agreement as an interim stop-gap.
But why is expecting those on the stop-gap to prove they meet the agreed requirements to get settled status a breach of the agreement?
How was pre-settled status ever meant to be full settled status? If it was, surely it would have been called settled status in the first place and not something else?
That one party claims something is unlawful doesn't make it so.
Are you suggesting pre-settled status should never expire?
I suggest that if we agreed to an Independent Monitoring Authority, we should follow their guidance on interpretation.
Why on earth would you do that?
It is called being reasonable and restoring trust and confidence.
I’ve a bridge to sell if you are buying?
If it was a bridge I wanted to buy I am sure we could manage the transaction without ending up in court. Why does this government feel the need to take everything to court?
Selection bias.
You only see the disputes that end up in court
I am reminded of a story that was told to me by a builder. As he arrived (with his team) at the property to setup and start work, he overheard the very shouty client on the phone. To his lawyer. Arranging to start the legal proceedings against him (the builder) - so as to negotiate a reduction in the agreed price.
My last boss was like that. His approach to everybody - even during my interview - was to negotiate as if the counterparty was a hostile litigant.
That’s another reason I’m going to New York.
Can work but just as likely to backfire. Eg a dispute I had quite recently over a property matter. The guy I was dealing with was a pro lawyer and he was forever threatening this and that and the other. Every email I'd get would be in that bullshit lawyerspeak "offer without prejudice", "rights fully reserved", it is "regrettable", bla bla, all seeking to intimidate. And it did. I was intimidated. But I was also very very pissed off and so I totally screwed him over.
With my boss, it simply meant he was incapable of getting long term commitment from his team, and unable to strike up satisfying partnerships.
None of which had impeded his ascent to #3 or #4 of a multi-billion company, mind you.
One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.
There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.
Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.
This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.
The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
Oh it absolutely is relevant.
Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
So what.
The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.
Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
So what? The point is if you wanted to avoid BrexitUK you could just as easily go to inner London or inner Manchester than NYC.
You will find rural, small town Trump voting America just as pro tighter immigration controls as rural, small town Brexit and Tory voting UK
Epping is a hell of a lot closer to inner London than Bum****, Indiana, is to NYC.
Culturally rural Epping Forest is closer to rural and smalltown America than inner London or NYC.
The other half of Epping Forest is more suburban but still not inner city in values either, more swings either way
I don’t recall meeting many gun-toting guys in pickup trucks when I lived round Epping Forest way.
Only because it is against the law here, if it was plenty would do.
If you wanted a part of the UK likely to vote for Trump, rural Epping Forest would be about as close as you could get
Isn't Epping Forest just full of rich old NIMBYs? Not exactly Trump's core vote.
In Epping town itself, Theydon Bois, the posher bits of Loughton and Buckhurst Hill plus new money in Chigwell and white working class in Waltham Abbey and rural parts of Ongar and North Weald. It would be the latter 3 where Trump could get a lot of votes here. There is even a Britain First councillor in one Waltham Abbey ward and UKIP won several councillors in Waltham Abbey too.
Trump won plenty of rich old people in the US however
Worked in Buckhurst Hill for a short while. Glad to get away. People I met were Ok, didn't like the place I worked, or the boss. One of the most unreasonable people I've ever met.
656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
Targets are a bullshit way of managing something. Every time I've come across them in practice that's been the case. Just leads to stress cascading downwards and numbers being fiddled. The deal should have been "as many as possible" and then put in place the resource and the system to facilitate.
If you want to avoid "Stoke", then don't stray far from Manhattan is my advice.
Definitely.
Don’t worry, I am a confirmed urbanite.
Having said that, I generally find Americans much more friendly and welcoming, regardless of their mad political views.
I'm with you. If I was in trouble and needing help*, there's nowhere I'd rather be than the US for people pulling together to help you out. Despite all the mad shit that goes on there, they are the nicest folk on the planet.
656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
Targets are a bullshit way of managing something. Every time I've come across them in practice that's been the case. Just leads to stress cascading downwards and numbers being fiddled. The deal should have been "as many as possible" and then put in place the resource and the system to facilitate.
Covid deaths are c 100-150 at the moment (from memory) but I believe those include “with covid”. *If* you make the distinction between “with” & “of” ( I don’t) it is plausible that “of” deaths are less than 40 pw
800 people a week die within 28 days of a positive test at the moment.
Covid deaths are c 100-150 at the moment (from memory) but I believe those include “with covid”. *If* you make the distinction between “with” & “of” ( I don’t) it is plausible that “of” deaths are less than 40 pw
800 people a week die within 28 days of a positive test at the moment.
More than 40 of them will have died from COVID.
Plus those that died of Covid AFTER the 28 days. They are not in the figures - people always forget that.
The reason that 28 days is used, is not because it is a medically perfect cut-off, but that the numbers balance out, approximately, for the various effects of having a cut off, when you use 28 days.
656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
This is before the 15 minute waiting time rule change, that will allow for half a million more doses per day. As I said when the policy was updated, we've got a reasonably good chance of making the target or coming very close to it.
Been trying to book a booster today. My position in the "queue" keeps going up rather than down. Given up.
Make sure you keep the window open, if you don't then you lose your place in the queue.
I've been leaving the tab open and active. Maybe that isn't enough - I've had it open for hours.
I did it on my phone, just kept the page open and kept the phone from sleeping or the screen turning off, it took about 5 mins. But yeah, one of the issues is shifting to another tab, that can lose you your place in the queue as well.
Modern browsers will disable a tab if it's not visible on the screen.
The way round it is not to use a tab for important pages but to open it in a separate window and leave it somewhere on your computer screen.
If you want to avoid "Stoke", then don't stray far from Manhattan is my advice.
Definitely.
Don’t worry, I am a confirmed urbanite.
Having said that, I generally find Americans much more friendly and welcoming, regardless of their mad political views.
I'm with you. If I was in trouble and needing help*, there's nowhere I'd rather be than the US for people pulling together to help you out. Despite all the mad shit that goes on there, they are the nicest folk on the planet.
*excluding urgent medical care, natch!
I have travelled widely in the US. It remains a great endeavour, and a phenomenal country. People are outstandingly warm.
But I “pass” as white, middle class or even “posh”.
656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
Targets are a bullshit way of managing something. Every time I've come across them in practice that's been the case. Just leads to stress cascading downwards and numbers being fiddled. The deal should have been "as many as possible" and then put in place the resource and the system to facilitate.
Try telling your theory to anyone in sport or anyone who has run a business. Lack of objectives leads to drift and underperformance. What you are probably referring to is badly drafted targets. A target that is fundamentally unachievable is pointless. This is an example of that, but not an example of targets per se.
656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
This is before the 15 minute waiting time rule change, that will allow for half a million more doses per day. As I said when the policy was updated, we've got a reasonably good chance of making the target or coming very close to it.
Given the lag in data reporting normally would this be jabs done on Monday?
So anyone who booked a jab on Monday won't have had time to be included in this data yet?
I expect we're going to have a million jabs reported before Christmas day. I had the very highest guess in the competition because I factored in some dodgy days of data due to a Christmas effect but I think if my guess isn't met it could be because everyone is done sooner than expected so there's no need for numbers to get that high.
656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
This is before the 15 minute waiting time rule change, that will allow for half a million more doses per day. As I said when the policy was updated, we've got a reasonably good chance of making the target or coming very close to it.
Jabbed yesterday, zero waiting time for me or anyone else there.
One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.
There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.
Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.
This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.
The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
Oh it absolutely is relevant.
Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
So what.
The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.
Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
So what? The point is if you wanted to avoid BrexitUK you could just as easily go to inner London or inner Manchester than NYC.
You will find rural, small town Trump voting America just as pro tighter immigration controls as rural, small town Brexit and Tory voting UK
Epping is a hell of a lot closer to inner London than Bum****, Indiana, is to NYC.
Culturally rural Epping Forest is closer to rural and smalltown America than inner London or NYC.
The other half of Epping Forest is more suburban but still not inner city in values either, more swings either way
I don’t recall meeting many gun-toting guys in pickup trucks when I lived round Epping Forest way.
Only because it is against the law here, if it was plenty would do.
If you wanted a part of the UK likely to vote for Trump, rural Epping Forest would be about as close as you could get
I think parts of Lincolnshire or the Cambridgeshire fens more so.
"It was not the result of new intelligence or new data. It was not a carefully-honed new model - the kind of thing using behavioural and virological programming sometimes churned out by members of SPI-M."
Its embarrassing total bollocks... remember this was 200k just for England, a million in England by next week....they literally fitted an exponential through a single noisy data point with the exponential factor also having plenty of uncertainty. Its the sort of nonsense even high school maths teaches against.
It's a joke, but at the same time these are the kinds of data points that will drive us towards an unnecessary lockdown.
What is most disappointing is Javid reads this crap out....he is supposed to have some concept of numbers, maths and models having been a banker.
Somebody telling me a million cases a day for England in just over a weeks time...I want to see your workings before i even think about reading it out in public.
I think a lot of people really don't have a feel for numbers even though they might be perfectly capable of doing calculations on paper and possess qualifications that ought to mean they are numerate. We've seen so many examples of this over the last couple of years, and coming from all sorts of backgrounds including people you would assume have to be numerate due to their professions and extensive qualifications.
"It was not the result of new intelligence or new data. It was not a carefully-honed new model - the kind of thing using behavioural and virological programming sometimes churned out by members of SPI-M."
Its embarrassing total bollocks... remember this was 200k just for England, a million in England by next week....they literally fitted an exponential through a single noisy data point with the exponential factor also having plenty of uncertainty. Its the sort of nonsense even high school maths teaches against.
But that @Chris embraces as the definitive truth of truths.
There are now 14 people in hospital with Omicron in the UK, the House of Commons has been told. Previously, there were thought to be 10 people.
Nobody tell Raab..
More seriously these stats are pointless.
14? And around 350,000 cases of omicron, allegedly. I know we need to consider lags, but either the 350,000 is bollox or we have nothing to really stress about.
The 'staggering number' of projected cases comes from the estimated less than 2 day doubling time, doesn't it?
By my calculations, if we currently have 10,000 Omicron cases a day, a continuation of the 2 day doubling time as assumed will mean we'll have over 300 million cases a day in a month.
Very worrying indeed.
Which of course is fantasy, being 6 times the population. But what might not be fantasy is it gets a few doubles in before the growth shallows out and peaks. That could be a big number. Then the small % of these who require hospital x that big number could be a number which overwhelms the health service. This is the heart of the matter - just like it was for the previous waves. So a similar risk calc is required but factoring in a changed politics, a changed public, and changed govt finances.
I suspect concern about absenteeism through sickness is also a major factor given an NHS that was in (slow) recovery mode before Omicron.
Yep, increased demand meets reduced supply, with the virus causing both. It's a worry. Bottom line is, I don't see what the government has to gain from fabricating a threat that isn't there. We were riding the Delta exit wave to a resumption of normality quite soon and they have no incentive, as far as I can see, to claim that Omicron is a rock in the pond if it most likely isn't.
I expect the Tories to hold the seat tomorrow . Omicron has helped Johnson with his airtime at press briefings and tv address and partygate will resonate less this week .
I do wonder why this seat was ever in real doubt given its high Leave vote . Johnson has been fortunate that the two by-elections have occurred in favourable constituencies.
656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
This is before the 15 minute waiting time rule change, that will allow for half a million more doses per day. As I said when the policy was updated, we've got a reasonably good chance of making the target or coming very close to it.
Never really understood the need for the 15 minute waiting time. If you didn't have a reaction after doses 1 and 2, why would it happen after 3? Should imagine it will be a very unusual event - and not worth the loss of extra jab time that can be undertaken.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h They're gonna introduce extra restrictions, aren't they? Dear oh dear.
I don't see how Boris stays on as PM if this happens, last night was about as big of a warning shot as he's going to get. Push for more restrictions and he'll be dumped, Raab becomes caretaker and there's a leadership election.
A hundred Tories were willing to say this is going too far despite the three line whip. That's how many were prepared to put their heads above the parapets despite the payroll vote being forced to vote Aye.
In a confidence vote its a secret ballot, isn't it? If there's a lockdown again then these 100 votes could easily be combined with enough payroll votes who voted Aye only due to the whip to force Boris out. I expect Sunak and Truss and their supporters would both be voting to No Confidence in a secret ballot but can't vote Nay in a whipped vote.
I don't see how Boris can survive attempting another lockdown now. The numbers just aren't there. If he tries, he'll be out like May should have been three years ago.
Tory MPs would be mad to get rid of Boris over lockdown. It would crash and burn the Govt and the party. Won't happen. And who would be the alternative who lead the country into a world of freedom and light?
Interesting post here from a sane Tory commentator who puts the case for Boris.
"Here is a man who can reach and sway audiences in a way that a purely technocratic Prime Minister might struggle to do. It may be that in some future pandemic, when the occupant of Number 10 is a dull figure who fails to sustain interest over a long period, we shall wish we still had, as was the case in the good old days, a leader with Johnson’s superlative abilities as a communicator."
Did this "sane Tory commentator" write that piece of drivel after the Peppa Pig speech?
"Johnson's superlative abilities as a communicator"? Um, err...no!
Off topic, just looking at one of the new look passports (remember this was one of the main "benefits" of Brexit), and can't help noticing that they are not navy blue, but actually black! Even pointed a torch at it to see if it was actually blue: nope it is black. Perhaps we are in mourning for losing our place in the world as a serious country.
Now found the tab you're obviously quoting. Those are still very low levels, and if you filter for Gauteng the hospital data rise appears to be near flattening this week, same as cases. So unless the deaths figire has got 4 more doubling cycles in it before that happens, it isn't going to match the last wave in south africa, let alone top it.
656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
This is before the 15 minute waiting time rule change, that will allow for half a million more doses per day. As I said when the policy was updated, we've got a reasonably good chance of making the target or coming very close to it.
Never really understood the need for the 15 minute waiting time. If you didn't have a reaction after doses 1 and 2, why would it happen after 3? Should imagine it will be a very unusual event - and not worth the loss of extra jab time that can be undertaken.
That's relevant for Pfizer and Moderna but there was no 15 minute wait for AZ, so for 1 set of people it's not known if they will suffer a reaction or not.
656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
This is before the 15 minute waiting time rule change, that will allow for half a million more doses per day. As I said when the policy was updated, we've got a reasonably good chance of making the target or coming very close to it.
Never really understood the need for the 15 minute waiting time. If you didn't have a reaction after doses 1 and 2, why would it happen after 3? Should imagine it will be a very unusual event - and not worth the loss of extra jab time that can be undertaken.
I believe in total there has been 17 bad reactions, none deadly, and they know its among those who have previously reacted badly to things like bee stings. If you never suffered any sort of anaphylactic shock was absolutely no need to wait.
The 'staggering number' of projected cases comes from the estimated less than 2 day doubling time, doesn't it?
Yes.
Right. So if it does blow up like that - and I don't see a good reason to doubt it - we must hope that the early indications of it being a relatively mild non-hospitalizing disease cf the delta variant are confirmed. And ditto for your dose btw. Mild, I very much hope.
There is good reason to doubt it, simply every exponent has a ceiling as we saw with Delta. In my case, it's almost non-existent in terms of symptoms, yesterday was pretty awful but that is probably because I got my third jab on Monday. My wife is certain that when we do our PCRs they will be negative, I don't think so.
Well let's hope it stays that way. Sure it will. Young gun like you plus all your jabs.
Yes, I know it has a ceiling. It rockets then shallows then peaks then drops away. Question is where will it peak and how quickly. What they are looking at is clearly scaring them. Should I also be concerned? Yes, I think so. I think it makes sense to be a bit worried. Not so much about the virus per se as an individual but about the NHS falling over and/or about another (proper) lockdown. I still don't expect this, on balance, but I'd be pretty sure that if they do it it'll be because there's no realistic practical alternative. The politics, esp after yesterday's vote, steers heavily away from it.
What they're looking at is a purely mathematical calculation based on some poorly understood factors. They're saying that the UK is currently experiencing 350k cases per day, the idea is ridiculous. We have enough same day result lateral flow testing to pick up any surge like that.
I am still waiting for some sensible numbers or facts from the government.
Am I going mad?
I am quite prepared to believe that omicron will cause the NHS to collapse, but nobody seems to want to show the working.
Because right now there's no real world data to support that theory, just a lot of guess work.
Sure. But there are reasonable estimates, and confidence intervals etc. Admittedly I’m not 24/7 on the news, but I’d like to think I would have picked up a sane and rational justification for the government’s measures.
There's just little to no rational discussion. The NHS says "this is bad, will hurt NHS" and because it's a national religion the politicians all go mental.
And yet the history of the pandemic shows the govt acting if anything a bit late to bring in NPIs and showing little inclination to keep them once the numbers fall away. And it also shows many many other countries taking action to protect their health services.
The 'staggering number' of projected cases comes from the estimated less than 2 day doubling time, doesn't it?
By my calculations, if we currently have 10,000 Omicron cases a day, a continuation of the 2 day doubling time as assumed will mean we'll have over 300 million cases a day in a month.
Very worrying indeed.
Which of course is fantasy, being 6 times the population. But what might not be fantasy is it gets a few doubles in before the growth shallows out and peaks. That could be a big number. Then the small % of these who require hospital x that big number could be a number which overwhelms the health service. This is the heart of the matter - just like it was for the previous waves. So a similar risk calc is required but factoring in a changed politics, a changed public, and changed govt finances.
I suspect concern about absenteeism through sickness is also a major factor given an NHS that was in (slow) recovery mode before Omicron.
Yep, increased demand meets reduced supply, with the virus causing both. It's a worry. Bottom line is, I don't see what the government has to gain from fabricating a threat that isn't there. We were riding the Delta exit wave to a resumption of normality quite soon and they have no incentive, as far as I can see, to claim that Omicron is a rock in the pond if it most likely isn't.
I don’t think the government is fabricating per se.
I think the scientists have said, this thing spreads like a mother-fucker, and if it is as serious as Delta it is going to collapse the NHS.
…But we can’t be sure.
At the same time Boris has been looking for a dead cat to deflect from his personal scandals, and he thinks he can kill two birds with one stone (shades of the O-Patz debacle).
To be honest it feels like utter chaos in Number 10. No strategy, just lots of noise and panic. The booster drive is about the only thing that makes sense.
It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
Have I missed something?
Boris gets a 100-strong rebellion after suggesting vaxports or LFT tests.
What sort of rebellion do we think would happen if he tried anything else. It (any further restrictions) is all over, surely.
Yes, it's all over for any additional restrictions. Boris would find himself quickly deposed and replaced with someone who campaigns on no more restrictions, time to live with COVID.
It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
Was it only two and a bit years ago that BoJo gaily terminated the whip of a score of Brexit rebels?
(BTW, did anyone on the payroll rebel? There were rumours of PPSes considering it. If not, it points to BoJo being in trouble, but not yet. And has anyone found Rishi? It's possible that he fell down between some sofa cushions.)
She says Royal Mail has been brilliant during the pandemic and they will "allow us to more than double our delivery capacity from Friday from 400,000 home delivered to 900,000".
There are other discussions going on too to increase capacity further says Dr Harries, who was talking to MPs on the transport select committee when she made the announcement.
Alliance pharmacies have had 6.4million tests sent to them to distribute in the community, where people need them.
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China profiting very nicely thank you....but won't somebody think of the turtles, all that plastic.
656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
Targets are a bullshit way of managing something. Every time I've come across them in practice that's been the case. Just leads to stress cascading downwards and numbers being fiddled. The deal should have been "as many as possible" and then put in place the resource and the system to facilitate.
Try telling your theory to anyone in sport or anyone who has run a business. Lack of objectives leads to drift and underperformance. What you are probably referring to is badly drafted targets. A target that is fundamentally unachievable is pointless. This is an example of that, but not an example of targets per se.
It applies to every field. But, yes, bottom up targets are fine. Ie those that flow organically from the resource and systems you put in place. I'm talking about top down ones. Those where a top banana decrees what "must happen" and then other people have to "deliver". These are toxic and are more common.
It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
Was it only two and a bit years ago that BoJo gaily terminated the whip of a score of Brexit rebels?
(BTW, did anyone on the payroll rebel? There were rumours of PPSes considering it. If not, it points to BoJo being in trouble, but not yet. And has anyone found Rishi? It's possible that he fell down between some sofa cushions.)
Kicking 100 MPs out of the party would be interesting, to say the least. Think they'd dump Boris first.
Think the PPSes were "convinced" to vote with the government after the scale of the rebellion became clear in the run up to last night. I heard the chief whip expected 80 to say they would rebel and then 30-40 to succumb to the pressure and row back for a total of 40-50. In the end they got the headcount completely wrong and totally underestimated how poorly these measures would go down with the party. In a free vote I'd expect somewhere around 250-270 Tory MPs to vote against and well over 300 to vote against any further restrictions. That's how angry the party is with Boris.
In one message, Kawczynski said: “I am looking for a position with a company as non exec director or adviser/consultant. Obviously my passion for Anglo Arab relations [is] something which could help a company with relations in the UK or Middle East. Not sure what remuneration I am looking for but you are such a good negotiator!!! Best wishes Daniel.”...
Where did you find this, Mr Nigel? Is it something doing the rounds in Shropshire by any chance?
Sorry, thought I'd provided a link. Front page of Guardian.
Although they are increasing capacity for boosters, i wonder about demand. How much of the rush this week is so people feel safer for meeting family over Christmas. It might be harder to get people to go and get jabbed between Christmas and New Year.
Off topic, just looking at one of the new look passports (remember this was one of the main "benefits" of Brexit), and can't help noticing that they are not navy blue, but actually black! Even pointed a torch at it to see if it was actually blue: nope it is black. Perhaps we are in mourning for losing our place in the world as a serious country.
How very dare you!
The black identifies as blue and you are being blackophobic in even daring to suggest otherwise.
656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
This is before the 15 minute waiting time rule change, that will allow for half a million more doses per day. As I said when the policy was updated, we've got a reasonably good chance of making the target or coming very close to it.
Given the lag in data reporting normally would this be jabs done on Monday?
So anyone who booked a jab on Monday won't have had time to be included in this data yet?
I expect we're going to have a million jabs reported before Christmas day. I had the very highest guess in the competition because I factored in some dodgy days of data due to a Christmas effect but I think if my guess isn't met it could be because everyone is done sooner than expected so there's no need for numbers to get that high.
I think there's potential for you to win the competition in the week before Christmas.
There's a motivation to get the booster *before* Christmas (even if it won't provide a large benefit until the start of January), schools will be shut, people will increasingly be on leave from work, some large new vaccination facilities are being opened.
The doubt in my mind is to what extent people will prefer to queue in the booking system (and stick to an appointment for January, say) as compared to queuing in person for a walk-in booster.
My wife's now boostered after 45 minutes in a queue, so she'll be cancelling the appointment she had made for next week.
656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
This is before the 15 minute waiting time rule change, that will allow for half a million more doses per day. As I said when the policy was updated, we've got a reasonably good chance of making the target or coming very close to it.
Never really understood the need for the 15 minute waiting time. If you didn't have a reaction after doses 1 and 2, why would it happen after 3? Should imagine it will be a very unusual event - and not worth the loss of extra jab time that can be undertaken.
I believe in total there has been 17 bad reactions, none deadly, and they know its among those who have previously reacted badly to things like bee stings. If you never suffered any sort of anaphylactic shock was absolutely no need to wait.
The other thing is that every 15 minute wait is a potential superspreader event at this stage.
I think with distancing and masks and ventilation that wasn't true when Delta was the main event, but risk reward balance has changed.
England's 12-player squad: Joe Root (capt), James Anderson, Stuart Broad, Rory Burns, Jos Buttler (wkt), Haseeb Hameed, Jack Leach, Dawid Malan, Ollie Pope, Ollie Robinson, Ben Stokes, Chris Woakes.
England resting their best (from 1st test) and fastest bowler they have in Australia where you need a real quick bowler..madness.
656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
This is before the 15 minute waiting time rule change, that will allow for half a million more doses per day. As I said when the policy was updated, we've got a reasonably good chance of making the target or coming very close to it.
Never really understood the need for the 15 minute waiting time. If you didn't have a reaction after doses 1 and 2, why would it happen after 3? Should imagine it will be a very unusual event - and not worth the loss of extra jab time that can be undertaken.
That's relevant for Pfizer and Moderna but there was no 15 minute wait for AZ, so for 1 set of people it's not known if they will suffer a reaction or not.
Yep, It was guidelines that both Pfizer and Moderna set out.
You had fairly new vaccine technology in these MRNA vaccines and they were just being cautious in that if you were going to have anaphylaxis or a major reaction it would be very likely within 15 mins of administering it.
We did well over 30,000 vaccinations during 1st and 2nd doses at our hospital hub and we had no major reactions that I can recall.
656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
Targets are a bullshit way of managing something. Every time I've come across them in practice that's been the case. Just leads to stress cascading downwards and numbers being fiddled. The deal should have been "as many as possible" and then put in place the resource and the system to facilitate.
There is no actual target per day....
What's all this 'million' business then? And then the semantics about "had" vs "offered"? Definite shades of that Hancock testing thing where the "target" became the be all and end all, divorced from meaning, and ended up being fiddled so as to let him do a fist pump.
Comments
My hope is that, once people have stopped work for Christmas, and with some extra centres being opened (e.g.at Wembley), we should have some monstrous large days of vaccination. But they will have to get the news out. We didn't find out that the pharmacy round the corner was doing boosters yesterday until five minutes before they shut.
Having a shit in the street is a public health hazard, similar to being unvaxxed, not its opposite.
Don’t worry, I am a confirmed urbanite.
Having said that, I generally find Americans much more friendly and welcoming, regardless of their mad political views.
Try claiming UC without a mountain of papers. Or rent a home. Or get a new job even.
There are decent arguments to support her views. But increasingly we aren't hearing them. It's Godwin all the way down.
Really important decision.
On two issues:
(1) Whether a non-binary person can insist on having X put in their passport instead of M or F. The court ruled against this -
"Dealing with Elan-Cane’s argument that having to select “F” in applying for and using a passport is demeaning and distressing, the judgment says: “The purpose of providing that information is not to inform HMPO as to the applicants’ feelings about their sexual identity, and the applicants are not being forced to lie about those feelings.”
This is something that has application to all public bodies collecting and recording data and the absolute necessity to make sure that what is collected is accurate and based on objective verifiable information rather than to make one feel good about oneself. Police forces (Police Scotland, for instance) should pay close attention to this ruling.
(2) Should the U.K. courts go beyond the ECHR to create rights? The SC ruled that this was not for the courts but the legislature. A ruling with which no doubt Raab would agree and which rather undermines his claim that the HRA needs amending to stop British judges doing this.
"States can of course create rights going beyond those protected by the Convention, but their power to do so exists independently of the Convention and is subject to their own established constitutional principles. Under those principles, as they apply in the United Kingdom, law-making is generally the function of the legislature. If the Human Rights Act were to be interpreted as giving judges the right to find breaches of Convention rights even where the European Court would hold that United Kingdom law was in conformity with the Convention, there would be a substantial expansion of the constitutional powers of the judiciary at the expense of Parliament. Parliament is unlikely to have intended to effect such an encroachment upon parliamentary sovereignty when it enacted the Human Rights Act. The appellant's alternative argument is therefore dismissed."
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-why-health-secretarys-200k-omicron-case-claim-was-back-of-envelope-sum-not-a-definitive-number-12495814
URL basically captures the gist of the articles
The bodily autonomy is a psychological figleaf for summat else imho.
"It was not the result of new intelligence or new data. It was not a carefully-honed new model - the kind of thing using behavioural and virological programming sometimes churned out by members of SPI-M."
Its embarrassing total bollocks... remember this was 200k just for England, a million in England by next week....they literally fitted an exponential through a single noisy data point with the exponential factor also having plenty of uncertainty. Its the sort of nonsense even high school maths teaches against.
If you wanted a part of the UK likely to vote for Trump, rural Epping Forest would be about as close as you could get
You might think that would be a good place to give/persuade folk to get jabbed? Captive audience and all.
Hope you are recovered now.
Boris Johnson has lost his authority, and with it, his ability to lead.
We are stuck with the worst Prime Minister at the worst possible time.
#PMQs https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1471119907693772806/video/1
None of which had impeded his ascent to #3 or #4 of a multi-billion company, mind you.
Best wishes Max!! May you remain asymptomatic.
Trump won plenty of rich old people in the US however
Somebody telling me a million cases a day for England in just over a weeks time...I want to see your workings before i even think about reading it out in public.
Not a fad though . . .
Highest to date: 656,711 (today)
Nearest estimate: @MightyAlex (700,000)
Next nearest: @Cyclefree (723,527)
Eliminated entries:
@Endillion 525,600
*excluding urgent medical care, natch!
Conservative MP Laurence Robertson has been sacked from his unpaid job as a trade envoy to Angola and Zambia after he rebelled against the government on COVID rules last night.
https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1471129971812933636
The way round it is not to use a tab for important pages but to open it in a separate window and leave it somewhere on your computer screen.
(Location: New Scotland Yard. Sound on) https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1471125380228653060/video/1
It remains a great endeavour, and a phenomenal country. People are outstandingly warm.
But I “pass” as white, middle class or even “posh”.
So anyone who booked a jab on Monday won't have had time to be included in this data yet?
I expect we're going to have a million jabs reported before Christmas day. I had the very highest guess in the competition because I factored in some dodgy days of data due to a Christmas effect but I think if my guess isn't met it could be because everyone is done sooner than expected so there's no need for numbers to get that high.
Is it supposed to send a message?
Sorry Boris, you lost pretty much everyone not on the payroll.
I do wonder why this seat was ever in real doubt given its high Leave vote . Johnson has been fortunate that the two by-elections have occurred in favourable constituencies.
BBC News - Confusion as people flee quarantine hotels
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59670486
No confusion, people have just decided to break the rules and leave despite being told not to by the government and security staff at the hotels.
https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1471130278999511041
Daily statistical releases from the same website show deaths completely flat - yesterday's figure down on the week before -
https://www.nicd.ac.za/media/alertss
Now found the tab you're obviously quoting. Those are still very low levels, and if you filter for Gauteng the hospital data rise appears to be near flattening this week, same as cases. So unless the deaths figire has got 4 more doubling cycles in it before that happens, it isn't going to match the last wave in south africa, let alone top it.
Boris gets a 100-strong rebellion after suggesting vaxports or LFT tests.
What sort of rebellion do we think would happen if he tried anything else. It (any further restrictions) is all over, surely.
I think the scientists have said, this thing spreads like a mother-fucker, and if it is as serious as Delta it is going to collapse the NHS.
…But we can’t be sure.
At the same time Boris has been looking for a dead cat to deflect from his personal scandals, and he thinks he can kill two birds with one stone (shades of the O-Patz debacle).
To be honest it feels like utter chaos in Number 10. No strategy, just lots of noise and panic. The booster drive is about the only thing that makes sense.
(BTW, did anyone on the payroll rebel? There were rumours of PPSes considering it. If not, it points to BoJo being in trouble, but not yet. And has anyone found Rishi? It's possible that he fell down between some sofa cushions.)
https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1471133466964209666
There are other discussions going on too to increase capacity further says Dr Harries, who was talking to MPs on the transport select committee when she made the announcement.
Alliance pharmacies have had 6.4million tests sent to them to distribute in the community, where people need them.
-------
China profiting very nicely thank you....but won't somebody think of the turtles, all that plastic.
Think the PPSes were "convinced" to vote with the government after the scale of the rebellion became clear in the run up to last night. I heard the chief whip expected 80 to say they would rebel and then 30-40 to succumb to the pressure and row back for a total of 40-50. In the end they got the headcount completely wrong and totally underestimated how poorly these measures would go down with the party. In a free vote I'd expect somewhere around 250-270 Tory MPs to vote against and well over 300 to vote against any further restrictions. That's how angry the party is with Boris.
Front page of Guardian.
The black identifies as blue and you are being blackophobic in even daring to suggest otherwise.
There's a motivation to get the booster *before* Christmas (even if it won't provide a large benefit until the start of January), schools will be shut, people will increasingly be on leave from work, some large new vaccination facilities are being opened.
The doubt in my mind is to what extent people will prefer to queue in the booking system (and stick to an appointment for January, say) as compared to queuing in person for a walk-in booster.
My wife's now boostered after 45 minutes in a queue, so she'll be cancelling the appointment she had made for next week.
I think with distancing and masks and ventilation that wasn't true when Delta was the main event, but risk reward balance has changed.
England resting their best (from 1st test) and fastest bowler they have in Australia where you need a real quick bowler..madness.
You had fairly new vaccine technology in these MRNA vaccines and they were just being cautious in that if you were going to have anaphylaxis or a major reaction it would be very likely within 15 mins of administering it.
We did well over 30,000 vaccinations during 1st and 2nd doses at our hospital hub and we had no major reactions that I can recall.
+28% today.
A decent start.