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A 2022 Johnson exit surges in the betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,801

    This lady seems to be something of a heroine in the antivax movement. I can see why; she has some very convincing arguments.

    Nat
    @Arwenstar
    Would you ever take a shit in the street in broad daylight in full view of everyone? You wouldn’t. Because it would be disgusting and undignified. So why on earth would you show your vaccination card to get inside a theatre?
    https://twitter.com/Arwenstar/status/1471115539804209156

    I wonder if she's secretly been vaxxed and doesn't want to admit it publicly?
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 548,039
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 54,234
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 31,916
    NI 22,522

    Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....

    pretty close to my joke guess of 0,642,766 = 0MICRON
    And I was 1 of those
  • Options
    Alistair said:

    Scotland 5,155 cases

    up just a little bit week-on-week from 3,077

    Nevertheless I'm sure the licensed trade will still be blaming Sturgeon for all those cancelled bookings. The question is how long will BBC Scotland feel comfortable amplifying them.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,442

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    God Almighty - Patel now attacking EU citizens who have settled status here:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patels-new-rule-is-a-blow-for-eu-citizens-who-live-in-britain-tdgw99z59

    What do you suggest?

    Pre-settled status EU citizens are automatically granted settled status at the end of 5 years?

    Even if they've spent some or all of that abroad?

    Why should EU citizens be treated differently to citizens from other countries who have to prove their residence when applying for permanent residence?
    Because it's a breach of the agreement with the EU?

    I mean I know this government places no store on legal agreements but even so.
    It is because it is a breach of the agreement with the EU, but also that agreement is effectively an agreement with millions of our neighbours, friends, co-workers, relatives, suppliers, customers. That we renege on such key agreements so casually and quickly is shameful.
    How is the agreement breached?

    Proving you had met the requirements to get settled status was a part of the agreement.

    For those who didn't meet the requirements, then pre-settled status was a part of the agreement as an interim stop-gap.

    But why is expecting those on the stop-gap to prove they meet the agreed requirements to get settled status a breach of the agreement?

    How was pre-settled status ever meant to be full settled status? If it was, surely it would have been called settled status in the first place and not something else?
    https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-government-faces-legal-action-over-treatment-of-eu-nationals/
    That one party claims something is unlawful doesn't make it so.

    Are you suggesting pre-settled status should never expire?
    I suggest that if we agreed to an Independent Monitoring Authority, we should follow their guidance on interpretation.
    Why on earth would you do that?
    It is called being reasonable and restoring trust and confidence.
    I’ve a bridge to sell if you are buying?
    If it was a bridge I wanted to buy I am sure we could manage the transaction without ending up in court. Why does this government feel the need to take everything to court?
    Selection bias.

    You only see the disputes that end up in court
    I am reminded of a story that was told to me by a builder. As he arrived (with his team) at the property to setup and start work, he overheard the very shouty client on the phone. To his lawyer. Arranging to start the legal proceedings against him (the builder) - so as to negotiate a reduction in the agreed price.
    My last boss was like that.
    His approach to everybody - even during my interview - was to negotiate as if the counterparty was a hostile litigant.

    That’s another reason I’m going to New York.
    Can't tell if that is a joke or not!?
    No joke.

    He was not in fact supposed to be my boss. Some kind of switcheroo happened before I started.

    But in my initial interview his opening gambit was something like, “what the fuck makes you think you’re qualified to work here?”
    The Joke is that "lawfare" of this kind is an American invention. And New York is quite famous for it.

    You'll probably be sued when you buy a cup of coffee....
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,995
    Charles said:

    Pretty sure this cnut wouldn't pass the Voight-Kampff test.


    Not necessarily…

    “At the moment” is the key piece

    Road deaths @2000 pa = 40 pw

    Covid deaths are c 100-150 at the moment (from memory) but I believe those include “with covid”. *If* you make the distinction between “with” & “of” ( I don’t) it is plausible that “of” deaths are less than 40 pw
    Typical Tory Hooray Henry bollox trying to support an absolute lying bellend Tory
  • Options
    There are another 20,169,670 eligible people who need boosters by the end of this month.

    At 100% uptake, they'd have to do 1.19m a day to hit the target.

    At 90% uptake, 1.07m a day.

    At 80% uptake, 949k a day.

    At 70% uptake, 831k a day.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,035
    Farooq said:

    656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 548,039
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 54,234
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 31,916
    NI 22,522

    Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....

    pretty close to my joke guess of 0,642,766 = 0MICRON
    And I was 1 of those
    Fairly large queues outside the vacc centre in Oxmoor, Huntingdon, when I ran past earlier. A couple of dozen people or so.

    I pick the nicest place to run. :)
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    The 'staggering number' of projected cases comes from the estimated less than 2 day doubling time, doesn't it?

    Yes.
    Right. So if it does blow up like that - and I don't see a good reason to doubt it - we must hope that the early indications of it being a relatively mild non-hospitalizing disease cf the delta variant are confirmed. And ditto for your dose btw. Mild, I very much hope.
    There is good reason to doubt it, simply every exponent has a ceiling as we saw with Delta. In my case, it's almost non-existent in terms of symptoms, yesterday was pretty awful but that is probably because I got my third jab on Monday. My wife is certain that when we do our PCRs they will be negative, I don't think so.
    Well let's hope it stays that way. Sure it will. Young gun like you plus all your jabs.

    Yes, I know it has a ceiling. It rockets then shallows then peaks then drops away. Question is where will it peak and how quickly. What they are looking at is clearly scaring them. Should I also be concerned? Yes, I think so. I think it makes sense to be a bit worried. Not so much about the virus per se as an individual but about the NHS falling over and/or about another (proper) lockdown. I still don't expect this, on balance, but I'd be pretty sure that if they do it it'll be because there's no realistic practical alternative. The politics, esp after yesterday's vote, steers heavily away from it.
    What they're looking at is a purely mathematical calculation based on some poorly understood factors. They're saying that the UK is currently experiencing 350k cases per day, the idea is ridiculous. We have enough same day result lateral flow testing to pick up any surge like that.
    I am still waiting for some sensible numbers or facts from the government.

    Am I going mad?

    I am quite prepared to believe that omicron will cause the NHS to collapse, but nobody seems to want to show the working.
    Because right now there's no real world data to support that theory, just a lot of guess work.
    Sure. But there are reasonable estimates, and confidence intervals etc. Admittedly I’m not 24/7 on the news, but I’d like to think I would have picked up a sane and rational justification for the government’s measures.
    There's just little to no rational discussion. The NHS says "this is bad, will hurt NHS" and because it's a national religion the politicians all go mental.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:


    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    God Almighty - Patel now attacking EU citizens who have settled status here:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patels-new-rule-is-a-blow-for-eu-citizens-who-live-in-britain-tdgw99z59

    One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.

    There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.

    Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.

    This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
    Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.

    The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
    None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
    Oh it absolutely is relevant.

    Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
    So what.

    The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.

    Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
    So what? The point is if you wanted to avoid BrexitUK you could just as easily go to inner London or inner Manchester than NYC.

    You will find rural, small town Trump voting America just as pro tighter immigration controls as rural, small town Brexit and Tory voting UK
    Epping is a hell of a lot closer to inner London than Bum****, Indiana, is to NYC.
    Culturally rural Epping Forest is closer to rural and smalltown America than inner London or NYC.

    The other half of Epping Forest is more suburban but still not inner city in values either, more swings either way
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,449
    From the Telegraph:
    "Parents should not to take their children out of school before term ends, Downing Street has said.

    Responding to suggestions some parents were keeping their children home to avoid the prospect of anyone catching Covid and being forced to isolate over Christmas, the Prime Minister's official spokesman said: "The best place for children - who have in many respects suffered the most through this pandemic - is in school, receiving vital face-to-face education."

    The spokesman said "it's important schools - and indeed parents - don't take precautionary steps to deprive their children of education"."

    I wonder if we could get our resident flint knapper to inscribe this on a 12 inch granite dildo to be rammed up Boris's arse when schools close in the New Year?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308

    656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 548,039
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 54,234
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 31,916
    NI 22,522

    Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....

    Capacity is still being ramped up. I have little doubt we will get to over 1m a day. Whether that is anywhere near enough to meet the new target is a different matter.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2021
    Farooq said:

    656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 548,039
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 54,234
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 31,916
    NI 22,522

    Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....

    pretty close to my joke guess of 0,642,766 = 0MICRON
    And I was 1 of those
    I think they will get a day over a million, but they need to be doing over a million every day already. It will soon be way over a million and i seems unlikely they can get to doing 1.5+ million in a day.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Farooq said:

    656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 548,039
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 54,234
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 31,916
    NI 22,522

    Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....

    pretty close to my joke guess of 0,642,766 = 0MICRON
    And I was 1 of those
    Fairly large queues outside the vacc centre in Oxmoor, Huntingdon, when I ran past earlier. A couple of dozen people or so.

    I pick the nicest place to run. :)
    Now you've reminded me I need to get out for a run. I was hoping to feel rubbish after my jab so I'd have an excuse to slack off today, but no. No excuses.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    Scotland 5,155 cases

    up just a little bit week-on-week from 3,077

    But that doesn't map to 350k per day in England.
    In the time it took you to write that post another 128k have been infected.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,801
    malcolmg said:

    Charles said:

    Pretty sure this cnut wouldn't pass the Voight-Kampff test.


    Not necessarily…

    “At the moment” is the key piece

    Road deaths @2000 pa = 40 pw

    Covid deaths are c 100-150 at the moment (from memory) but I believe those include “with covid”. *If* you make the distinction between “with” & “of” ( I don’t) it is plausible that “of” deaths are less than 40 pw
    Typical Tory Hooray Henry bollox trying to support an absolute lying bellend Tory
    Hello Malky. Nice to see you on form despite the dreich weather (at least in the east). Currently packing up a heap of assorted books promised to various people (and very glad RM now comes to collect once booked) and staring at the nevertheless small heap of Xmas cards.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986

    There are another 20,169,670 eligible people who need boosters by the end of this month.

    At 100% uptake, they'd have to do 1.19m a day to hit the target.

    At 90% uptake, 1.07m a day.

    At 80% uptake, 949k a day.

    At 70% uptake, 831k a day.

    Minus those who have tested positive within four weeks and are therefore ineligible.
    At 50k cases a day that must be a fair few.
    Marginal difference I guess.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,995

    Have we covered the financial news?

    Bitcoin could be “worthless”? Who knew?

    Chinese property market about to go all 2008 on us.

    Belt up. The ride is about to start.

    You keep saying that so will be correct one of these years.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    For Gardenwalker, here are the 2020 Presidential election results for New York by county. In a state Biden won 60.9% to 37.7%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York#/media/File:New_York_Presidential_Election_Results_2020.svg

    If you want to avoid "Stoke", then don't stray far from Manhattan is my advice.
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Farooq said:

    DavidL said:

    I was able to hear but not see PMQs today whilst driving home. I thought that SKS was poor and Boris was not a lot better. Given the hand that he had I would have expected SKS to do much better. I also would have expected Boris to be a bit more gracious about the benefits of Labour support but that is probably asking too much.

    Boris is fighting for his political life and the only sensible target is Labour, no matter what the circumstances. Anything that plays upon Conservative divisions at this stage is a fatal mistake, so he's playing it right.
    It would have been very interesting if someone had simply asked "where is the chancellor of the exchequer?", but risky because there may be a bland sensible reason for his absence.
    Yeah, you're probably right. He was obviously reluctant to criticise the morons behind him that thought voting against the government last night was a good idea.
    I'm sorry David I respect you but I 100% support those "morons" behind him.

    Thank goodness there is some scrutiny of the government coming from its backbenches. What a shame there was none from the so-called Opposition.
    I respect your views too Philip but the government is going to get a lot of grief for not having done enough, not for having done too much. And rightly so.
    I'm sorry but respectfully I couldn't disagree more. What more should be done and why?

    We're in a situation where 42% of over-12s have already received not two but three vaccine doses. Everyone on the vulnerable list has already had their opportunity to receive a booster now. As it stands deaths are still trending down not up, which could potentially continue despite the 'casedemic' because cases are hitting people triply-vaccinated now.

    For anyone who's unvaccinated and gets themselves sick then quite frankly they deserve whatever comes to them and I don't think there's much sympathy left now in the general public for thinking we should wreck our own livelihoods to pander to those who are afraid of needles and believing gobbledegook.

    If three vaccine doses for everyone vulnerable isn't enough, then just when do you propose we say enough is enough?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2021
    DavidL said:

    656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 548,039
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 54,234
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 31,916
    NI 22,522

    Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....

    Capacity is still being ramped up. I have little doubt we will get to over 1m a day. Whether that is anywhere near enough to meet the new target is a different matter.
    Sorry to clarify i meant averaging over a million per day. I think they will get a day or two when they do, but not going to do that christmas eve, christmas day, boxing day, new years eve, which means the other days need just crazy amounts.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,801
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:


    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    God Almighty - Patel now attacking EU citizens who have settled status here:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patels-new-rule-is-a-blow-for-eu-citizens-who-live-in-britain-tdgw99z59

    One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.

    There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.

    Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.

    This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
    Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.

    The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
    None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
    Oh it absolutely is relevant.

    Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
    So what.

    The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.

    Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
    So what? The point is if you wanted to avoid BrexitUK you could just as easily go to inner London or inner Manchester than NYC.

    You will find rural, small town Trump voting America just as pro tighter immigration controls as rural, small town Brexit and Tory voting UK
    Epping is a hell of a lot closer to inner London than Bum****, Indiana, is to NYC.
    Culturally rural Epping Forest is closer to rural and smalltown America than inner London or NYC.

    The other half of Epping Forest is more suburban but still not inner city in values either, more swings either way
    That's interesting, thanks. (Pampas grass must be very popular in the second half of Epping Forest, though.)
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,995
    Mortimer said:

    Sorry to hear about @MaxPB’s diagnosis.
    It rather seems as if the oversized reaction to the booster was in fact Covid.

    I have just taken a same-day PCR and am on anxious tenterhooks waiting to see if I am an asymptomatic omnicrone.

    Beginning to think I may be the only person in the UK not to have done a PCR test, ever.
    I think you are dreaming
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    Farooq said:



    Now you've reminded me I need to get out for a run. I was hoping to feel rubbish after my jab so I'd have an excuse to slack off today, but no. No excuses.

    Ha. A colleague was admiring my nimble staircase-pounding on our leaflet drive at the weekend - I explained that the secret is to spend 50 years sitting at keyboards, saves lots of leg energy when you're 70...
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    God Almighty - Patel now attacking EU citizens who have settled status here:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patels-new-rule-is-a-blow-for-eu-citizens-who-live-in-britain-tdgw99z59

    What do you suggest?

    Pre-settled status EU citizens are automatically granted settled status at the end of 5 years?

    Even if they've spent some or all of that abroad?

    Why should EU citizens be treated differently to citizens from other countries who have to prove their residence when applying for permanent residence?
    Because it's a breach of the agreement with the EU?

    I mean I know this government places no store on legal agreements but even so.
    It is because it is a breach of the agreement with the EU, but also that agreement is effectively an agreement with millions of our neighbours, friends, co-workers, relatives, suppliers, customers. That we renege on such key agreements so casually and quickly is shameful.
    How is the agreement breached?

    Proving you had met the requirements to get settled status was a part of the agreement.

    For those who didn't meet the requirements, then pre-settled status was a part of the agreement as an interim stop-gap.

    But why is expecting those on the stop-gap to prove they meet the agreed requirements to get settled status a breach of the agreement?

    How was pre-settled status ever meant to be full settled status? If it was, surely it would have been called settled status in the first place and not something else?
    https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-government-faces-legal-action-over-treatment-of-eu-nationals/
    That one party claims something is unlawful doesn't make it so.

    Are you suggesting pre-settled status should never expire?
    I suggest that if we agreed to an Independent Monitoring Authority, we should follow their guidance on interpretation.
    Why on earth would you do that?
    It is called being reasonable and restoring trust and confidence.
    I’ve a bridge to sell if you are buying?
    If it was a bridge I wanted to buy I am sure we could manage the transaction without ending up in court. Why does this government feel the need to take everything to court?
    Selection bias.

    You only see the disputes that end up in court
    I am reminded of a story that was told to me by a builder. As he arrived (with his team) at the property to setup and start work, he overheard the very shouty client on the phone. To his lawyer. Arranging to start the legal proceedings against him (the builder) - so as to negotiate a reduction in the agreed price.
    My last boss was like that.
    His approach to everybody - even during my interview - was to negotiate as if the counterparty was a hostile litigant.

    That’s another reason I’m going to New York.
    Can't tell if that is a joke or not!?
    No joke.

    He was not in fact supposed to be my boss. Some kind of switcheroo happened before I started.

    But in my initial interview his opening gambit was something like, “what the fuck makes you think you’re qualified to work here?”
    You clearly know the likes of Trump are permanently in the New York court system, so whilst the UK boss may be annoying, and there may be other good reasons for moving to NY, avoiding the use of frivolous law suits in business is not a coherent reason to move there.
    Well he was Argentinian, and based on Zurich.

    All I mean to say is several things conspired to move me to New York. Push factors and pull factors. He was a push factor.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    God Almighty - Patel now attacking EU citizens who have settled status here:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patels-new-rule-is-a-blow-for-eu-citizens-who-live-in-britain-tdgw99z59

    One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.

    There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.

    Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.

    This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
    Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.

    The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
    None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
    Oh it absolutely is relevant.

    Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
    So what.

    The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.

    Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
    Less of this lazy stereotyping of Stoke please!
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,289
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:


    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    God Almighty - Patel now attacking EU citizens who have settled status here:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patels-new-rule-is-a-blow-for-eu-citizens-who-live-in-britain-tdgw99z59

    One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.

    There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.

    Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.

    This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
    Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.

    The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
    None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
    Oh it absolutely is relevant.

    Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
    So what.

    The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.

    Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
    So what? The point is if you wanted to avoid BrexitUK you could just as easily go to inner London or inner Manchester than NYC.

    You will find rural, small town Trump voting America just as pro tighter immigration controls as rural, small town Brexit and Tory voting UK
    Epping is a hell of a lot closer to inner London than Bum****, Indiana, is to NYC.
    Culturally rural Epping Forest is closer to rural and smalltown America than inner London or NYC.

    The other half of Epping Forest is more suburban but still not inner city in values either, more swings either way
    I don’t recall meeting many gun-toting guys in pickup trucks when I lived round Epping Forest way.
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    There are another 20,169,670 eligible people who need boosters by the end of this month.

    At 100% uptake, they'd have to do 1.19m a day to hit the target.

    At 90% uptake, 1.07m a day.

    At 80% uptake, 949k a day.

    At 70% uptake, 831k a day.

    Minus those who have tested positive within four weeks and are therefore ineligible.
    At 50k cases a day that must be a fair few.
    Marginal difference I guess.
    I can certainly see way over 100-200k cases per day on the official numbers, so i guess that's another 2 million off the total.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,292

    656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 548,039
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 54,234
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 31,916
    NI 22,522

    Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....

    My wife heard on the twitters that the vaccination centre at Ingliston was quiet between 9-5, but busy before and after that, presumably because people are at work, so she's off there to be boostered as a walk-in.

    My hope is that, once people have stopped work for Christmas, and with some extra centres being opened (e.g.at Wembley), we should have some monstrous large days of vaccination. But they will have to get the news out. We didn't find out that the pharmacy round the corner was doing boosters yesterday until five minutes before they shut.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226

    Pretty sure this cnut wouldn't pass the Voight-Kampff test.

    Or any test. I caught his 'speech' yesterday and it had the usual effect on me - utter disbelief that he was an MP. He'd be a real problem for me if I were also an MP. It would interfere with my independence and judgement. Eg there could be a bill proposing that it be made compulsory by law to self-isolate for 6 months if you got a pimple on your nose and if I saw Swayne in the 'No' lobby I'd have to vote Yes or abstain.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,689
    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    This lady seems to be something of a heroine in the antivax movement. I can see why; she has some very convincing arguments.

    Nat
    @Arwenstar
    Would you ever take a shit in the street in broad daylight in full view of everyone? You wouldn’t. Because it would be disgusting and undignified. So why on earth would you show your vaccination card to get inside a theatre?
    https://twitter.com/Arwenstar/status/1471115539804209156

    I wonder if she's secretly been vaxxed and doesn't want to admit it publicly?
    I suspect it's more likely she took a shit in the street in broad daylight in full view of everyone, and is trying to get ahead of the story.
    It is a pretty crap analogy!

    Having a shit in the street is a public health hazard, similar to being unvaxxed, not its opposite.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,632

    dixiedean said:

    There are another 20,169,670 eligible people who need boosters by the end of this month.

    At 100% uptake, they'd have to do 1.19m a day to hit the target.

    At 90% uptake, 1.07m a day.

    At 80% uptake, 949k a day.

    At 70% uptake, 831k a day.

    Minus those who have tested positive within four weeks and are therefore ineligible.
    At 50k cases a day that must be a fair few.
    Marginal difference I guess.
    I can certainly see way over 100-200k cases per day on the official numbers, so i guess that's another 2 million off the total.
    But those who have had Covid without knowing it don't realise that they shouldn't get the booster. So only those who have tested positive know that they are ineligible.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,003
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:


    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    God Almighty - Patel now attacking EU citizens who have settled status here:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patels-new-rule-is-a-blow-for-eu-citizens-who-live-in-britain-tdgw99z59

    One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.

    There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.

    Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.

    This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
    Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.

    The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
    None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
    Oh it absolutely is relevant.

    Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
    So what.

    The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.

    Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
    So what? The point is if you wanted to avoid BrexitUK you could just as easily go to inner London or inner Manchester than NYC.

    You will find rural, small town Trump voting America just as pro tighter immigration controls as rural, small town Brexit and Tory voting UK
    Epping is a hell of a lot closer to inner London than Bum****, Indiana, is to NYC.
    Culturally rural Epping Forest is closer to rural and smalltown America than inner London or NYC.

    The other half of Epping Forest is more suburban but still not inner city in values either, more swings either way
    What on earth do you think of us further out ..... in the tractor country beyond Braintree?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    God Almighty - Patel now attacking EU citizens who have settled status here:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patels-new-rule-is-a-blow-for-eu-citizens-who-live-in-britain-tdgw99z59

    One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.

    There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.

    Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.

    This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
    Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.

    The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
    None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
    Oh it absolutely is relevant.

    Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
    So what.

    The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.

    Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
    Less of this lazy stereotyping of Stoke please!
    I wonder how many people round these parts have been up Hanley....
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,010
    edited December 2021
    Mortimer said:

    Sorry to hear about @MaxPB’s diagnosis.
    It rather seems as if the oversized reaction to the booster was in fact Covid.

    I have just taken a same-day PCR and am on anxious tenterhooks waiting to see if I am an asymptomatic omnicrone.

    Beginning to think I may be the only person in the UK not to have done a PCR test, ever.
    I have only done one, as I was told I had to, by law, upon returning from a holiday in Spain. It was a total faff, a waste of money and almost certainly a complete waste of time. The government did absolutely nothing whatsoever with it, as far as I could ascertain.
  • Options

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    God Almighty - Patel now attacking EU citizens who have settled status here:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patels-new-rule-is-a-blow-for-eu-citizens-who-live-in-britain-tdgw99z59

    What do you suggest?

    Pre-settled status EU citizens are automatically granted settled status at the end of 5 years?

    Even if they've spent some or all of that abroad?

    Why should EU citizens be treated differently to citizens from other countries who have to prove their residence when applying for permanent residence?
    Because it's a breach of the agreement with the EU?

    I mean I know this government places no store on legal agreements but even so.
    It is because it is a breach of the agreement with the EU, but also that agreement is effectively an agreement with millions of our neighbours, friends, co-workers, relatives, suppliers, customers. That we renege on such key agreements so casually and quickly is shameful.
    How is the agreement breached?

    Proving you had met the requirements to get settled status was a part of the agreement.

    For those who didn't meet the requirements, then pre-settled status was a part of the agreement as an interim stop-gap.

    But why is expecting those on the stop-gap to prove they meet the agreed requirements to get settled status a breach of the agreement?

    How was pre-settled status ever meant to be full settled status? If it was, surely it would have been called settled status in the first place and not something else?
    https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-government-faces-legal-action-over-treatment-of-eu-nationals/
    That one party claims something is unlawful doesn't make it so.

    Are you suggesting pre-settled status should never expire?
    I suggest that if we agreed to an Independent Monitoring Authority, we should follow their guidance on interpretation.
    Why on earth would you do that?
    It is called being reasonable and restoring trust and confidence.
    I’ve a bridge to sell if you are buying?
    If it was a bridge I wanted to buy I am sure we could manage the transaction without ending up in court. Why does this government feel the need to take everything to court?
    Selection bias.

    You only see the disputes that end up in court
    I am reminded of a story that was told to me by a builder. As he arrived (with his team) at the property to setup and start work, he overheard the very shouty client on the phone. To his lawyer. Arranging to start the legal proceedings against him (the builder) - so as to negotiate a reduction in the agreed price.
    My last boss was like that.
    His approach to everybody - even during my interview - was to negotiate as if the counterparty was a hostile litigant.

    That’s another reason I’m going to New York.
    Can't tell if that is a joke or not!?
    No joke.

    He was not in fact supposed to be my boss. Some kind of switcheroo happened before I started.

    But in my initial interview his opening gambit was something like, “what the fuck makes you think you’re qualified to work here?”
    You clearly know the likes of Trump are permanently in the New York court system, so whilst the UK boss may be annoying, and there may be other good reasons for moving to NY, avoiding the use of frivolous law suits in business is not a coherent reason to move there.
    Moving to NY to get away from lawfare does have the feel of moving into a lion's enclosure to get away from danger.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,995

    Mortimer said:

    Sorry to hear about @MaxPB’s diagnosis.
    It rather seems as if the oversized reaction to the booster was in fact Covid.

    I have just taken a same-day PCR and am on anxious tenterhooks waiting to see if I am an asymptomatic omnicrone.

    Beginning to think I may be the only person in the UK not to have done a PCR test, ever.
    That was me until this morning.
    The nurse was not impressed.
    Why was she not impressed, nothing to do with her whether you think you need a PCR test or not.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,632
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:


    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    God Almighty - Patel now attacking EU citizens who have settled status here:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patels-new-rule-is-a-blow-for-eu-citizens-who-live-in-britain-tdgw99z59

    One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.

    There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.

    Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.

    This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
    Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.

    The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
    None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
    Oh it absolutely is relevant.

    Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
    So what.

    The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.

    Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
    So what? The point is if you wanted to avoid BrexitUK you could just as easily go to inner London or inner Manchester than NYC.

    You will find rural, small town Trump voting America just as pro tighter immigration controls as rural, small town Brexit and Tory voting UK
    Epping is a hell of a lot closer to inner London than Bum****, Indiana, is to NYC.
    Culturally rural Epping Forest is closer to rural and smalltown America than inner London or NYC.

    The other half of Epping Forest is more suburban but still not inner city in values either, more swings either way
    I don’t recall meeting many gun-toting guys in pickup trucks when I lived round Epping Forest way.
    But they do have a line dancing class at the church hall.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857

    For Gardenwalker, here are the 2020 Presidential election results for New York by county. In a state Biden won 60.9% to 37.7%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York#/media/File:New_York_Presidential_Election_Results_2020.svg

    If you want to avoid "Stoke", then don't stray far from Manhattan is my advice.

    Definitely.

    Don’t worry, I am a confirmed urbanite.

    Having said that, I generally find Americans much more friendly and welcoming, regardless of their mad political views.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2021

    dixiedean said:

    There are another 20,169,670 eligible people who need boosters by the end of this month.

    At 100% uptake, they'd have to do 1.19m a day to hit the target.

    At 90% uptake, 1.07m a day.

    At 80% uptake, 949k a day.

    At 70% uptake, 831k a day.

    Minus those who have tested positive within four weeks and are therefore ineligible.
    At 50k cases a day that must be a fair few.
    Marginal difference I guess.
    I can certainly see way over 100-200k cases per day on the official numbers, so i guess that's another 2 million off the total.
    But those who have had Covid without knowing it don't realise that they shouldn't get the booster. So only those who have tested positive know that they are ineligible.
    That's what i said....official case numbers of 100-200k i think is certain, especially with everybody lateral flowing left, right and centre.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    edited December 2021

    This lady seems to be something of a heroine in the antivax movement. I can see why; she has some very convincing arguments.

    Nat
    @Arwenstar
    Would you ever take a shit in the street in broad daylight in full view of everyone? You wouldn’t. Because it would be disgusting and undignified. So why on earth would you show your vaccination card to get inside a theatre?
    https://twitter.com/Arwenstar/status/1471115539804209156

    Does she show a passport to get on a plane? Or carry a driving licence before getting behind the wheel?
    Try claiming UC without a mountain of papers. Or rent a home. Or get a new job even.
    There are decent arguments to support her views. But increasingly we aren't hearing them. It's Godwin all the way down.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Farooq said:



    Now you've reminded me I need to get out for a run. I was hoping to feel rubbish after my jab so I'd have an excuse to slack off today, but no. No excuses.

    Ha. A colleague was admiring my nimble staircase-pounding on our leaflet drive at the weekend - I explained that the secret is to spend 50 years sitting at keyboards, saves lots of leg energy when you're 70...
    My guess is you find the stairs easier the more you believe in the cause. Mind over matter. Those leaflets NEED to be in voters' hands and without me they won't be!
  • Options
    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,891
    DavidL said:

    656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 548,039
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 54,234
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 31,916
    NI 22,522

    Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....

    Capacity is still being ramped up. I have little doubt we will get to over 1m a day. Whether that is anywhere near enough to meet the new target is a different matter.
    Yup, there a at least a couple of hundred sites being opened soon. They are trying to get quite a few up and running by Friday.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    This lady seems to be something of a heroine in the antivax movement. I can see why; she has some very convincing arguments.

    Nat
    @Arwenstar
    Would you ever take a shit in the street in broad daylight in full view of everyone? You wouldn’t. Because it would be disgusting and undignified. So why on earth would you show your vaccination card to get inside a theatre?
    https://twitter.com/Arwenstar/status/1471115539804209156

    I wonder if she's secretly been vaxxed and doesn't want to admit it publicly?
    I suspect it's more likely she took a shit in the street in broad daylight in full view of everyone, and is trying to get ahead of the story.
    It is a pretty crap analogy!

    Having a shit in the street is a public health hazard, similar to being unvaxxed, not its opposite.
    But.. but.. FREEDOM
  • Options
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    We've just had confirmation that Prime Minister Boris Johnson will lead a Downing Street press conference at 17:00 GMT.

    He will be accompanied by England’s chief medical officer Chris Whitty and NHS England’s medical director of primary care Dr Nikki Kanani

    This is how Boris intends to regain any popularity among the public. Lots of useless press conferences like last year.
    I don’t think his appearances boost his popularity as once they might have done.
    It is what he is hoping for though. I can't help thinking that a lot of the government response has more to do with trying to relive the glory days of the vaccine rollout popularity than actually doing what is right and proportionate.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,047
    dixiedean said:

    This lady seems to be something of a heroine in the antivax movement. I can see why; she has some very convincing arguments.

    Nat
    @Arwenstar
    Would you ever take a shit in the street in broad daylight in full view of everyone? You wouldn’t. Because it would be disgusting and undignified. So why on earth would you show your vaccination card to get inside a theatre?
    https://twitter.com/Arwenstar/status/1471115539804209156

    Does she show a passport to get on a plane? Or carry a driving licence before getting behind the wheel?
    There are decent arguments to support her views. But increasingly we aren't hearing them. It's Godwin all the way down.
    Trying to get inside her mind (not easy) vaccination IS different. People can feel very strongly when it comes to bodily autonomy.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226

    DavidL said:

    I was able to hear but not see PMQs today whilst driving home. I thought that SKS was poor and Boris was not a lot better. Given the hand that he had I would have expected SKS to do much better. I also would have expected Boris to be a bit more gracious about the benefits of Labour support but that is probably asking too much.

    The old favourite gag narrative of Starmer jabbers, Boris jabs is always a big winner.
    Yep - gonna ride that all the way to GE24 and romp home!
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,442

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:


    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    God Almighty - Patel now attacking EU citizens who have settled status here:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patels-new-rule-is-a-blow-for-eu-citizens-who-live-in-britain-tdgw99z59

    One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.

    There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.

    Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.

    This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
    Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.

    The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
    None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
    Oh it absolutely is relevant.

    Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
    So what.

    The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.

    Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
    So what? The point is if you wanted to avoid BrexitUK you could just as easily go to inner London or inner Manchester than NYC.

    You will find rural, small town Trump voting America just as pro tighter immigration controls as rural, small town Brexit and Tory voting UK
    Epping is a hell of a lot closer to inner London than Bum****, Indiana, is to NYC.
    Culturally rural Epping Forest is closer to rural and smalltown America than inner London or NYC.

    The other half of Epping Forest is more suburban but still not inner city in values either, more swings either way
    I don’t recall meeting many gun-toting guys in pickup trucks when I lived round Epping Forest way.
    But they do have a line dancing class at the church hall.
    Just 'cause you don't see it.. out in the country *everyone* is packing heat.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,047
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:



    Now you've reminded me I need to get out for a run. I was hoping to feel rubbish after my jab so I'd have an excuse to slack off today, but no. No excuses.

    Ha. A colleague was admiring my nimble staircase-pounding on our leaflet drive at the weekend - I explained that the secret is to spend 50 years sitting at keyboards, saves lots of leg energy when you're 70...
    My guess is you find the stairs easier the more you believe in the cause. Mind over matter. Those leaflets NEED to be in voters' hands and without me they won't be!
    And a certain irrational belief that people will actually read them.
  • Options
    To the "no crimbo" lot, its not a vaccine, its a "state injectable".....
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I just saw Ed Conway's article on the 200k infections figure

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-why-health-secretarys-200k-omicron-case-claim-was-back-of-envelope-sum-not-a-definitive-number-12495814

    URL basically captures the gist of the articles
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:



    Now you've reminded me I need to get out for a run. I was hoping to feel rubbish after my jab so I'd have an excuse to slack off today, but no. No excuses.

    Ha. A colleague was admiring my nimble staircase-pounding on our leaflet drive at the weekend - I explained that the secret is to spend 50 years sitting at keyboards, saves lots of leg energy when you're 70...
    My guess is you find the stairs easier the more you believe in the cause. Mind over matter. Those leaflets NEED to be in voters' hands and without me they won't be!
    Exactly!
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857
    malcolmg said:

    Mortimer said:

    Sorry to hear about @MaxPB’s diagnosis.
    It rather seems as if the oversized reaction to the booster was in fact Covid.

    I have just taken a same-day PCR and am on anxious tenterhooks waiting to see if I am an asymptomatic omnicrone.

    Beginning to think I may be the only person in the UK not to have done a PCR test, ever.
    That was me until this morning.
    The nurse was not impressed.
    Why was she not impressed, nothing to do with her whether you think you need a PCR test or not.
    She assumed I had done it before, and when I said I had not she gave a frustrated groan before proceeding to spiel off the instructions.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986

    dixiedean said:

    This lady seems to be something of a heroine in the antivax movement. I can see why; she has some very convincing arguments.

    Nat
    @Arwenstar
    Would you ever take a shit in the street in broad daylight in full view of everyone? You wouldn’t. Because it would be disgusting and undignified. So why on earth would you show your vaccination card to get inside a theatre?
    https://twitter.com/Arwenstar/status/1471115539804209156

    Does she show a passport to get on a plane? Or carry a driving licence before getting behind the wheel?
    There are decent arguments to support her views. But increasingly we aren't hearing them. It's Godwin all the way down.
    Trying to get inside her mind (not easy) vaccination IS different. People can feel very strongly when it comes to bodily autonomy.
    Indeed. But plenty of folk need vaccinations to go on business or holiday to plenty of places.
    The bodily autonomy is a psychological figleaf for summat else imho.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2021
    Alistair said:

    I just saw Ed Conway's article on the 200k infections figure

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-why-health-secretarys-200k-omicron-case-claim-was-back-of-envelope-sum-not-a-definitive-number-12495814

    URL basically captures the gist of the articles

    This is the crucial bit....

    "It was not the result of new intelligence or new data. It was not a carefully-honed new model - the kind of thing using behavioural and virological programming sometimes churned out by members of SPI-M."

    Its embarrassing total bollocks... remember this was 200k just for England, a million in England by next week....they literally fitted an exponential through a single noisy data point with the exponential factor also having plenty of uncertainty. Its the sort of nonsense even high school maths teaches against.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    Been trying to book a booster today. My position in the "queue" keeps going up rather than down. Given up.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:


    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    God Almighty - Patel now attacking EU citizens who have settled status here:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patels-new-rule-is-a-blow-for-eu-citizens-who-live-in-britain-tdgw99z59

    One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.

    There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.

    Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.

    This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
    Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.

    The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
    None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
    Oh it absolutely is relevant.

    Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
    So what.

    The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.

    Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
    So what? The point is if you wanted to avoid BrexitUK you could just as easily go to inner London or inner Manchester than NYC.

    You will find rural, small town Trump voting America just as pro tighter immigration controls as rural, small town Brexit and Tory voting UK
    Epping is a hell of a lot closer to inner London than Bum****, Indiana, is to NYC.
    Culturally rural Epping Forest is closer to rural and smalltown America than inner London or NYC.

    The other half of Epping Forest is more suburban but still not inner city in values either, more swings either way
    I don’t recall meeting many gun-toting guys in pickup trucks when I lived round Epping Forest way.
    Only because it is against the law here, if it was plenty would do.

    If you wanted a part of the UK likely to vote for Trump, rural Epping Forest would be about as close as you could get
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    God Almighty - Patel now attacking EU citizens who have settled status here:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patels-new-rule-is-a-blow-for-eu-citizens-who-live-in-britain-tdgw99z59

    What do you suggest?

    Pre-settled status EU citizens are automatically granted settled status at the end of 5 years?

    Even if they've spent some or all of that abroad?

    Why should EU citizens be treated differently to citizens from other countries who have to prove their residence when applying for permanent residence?
    Because it's a breach of the agreement with the EU?

    I mean I know this government places no store on legal agreements but even so.
    It is because it is a breach of the agreement with the EU, but also that agreement is effectively an agreement with millions of our neighbours, friends, co-workers, relatives, suppliers, customers. That we renege on such key agreements so casually and quickly is shameful.
    How is the agreement breached?

    Proving you had met the requirements to get settled status was a part of the agreement.

    For those who didn't meet the requirements, then pre-settled status was a part of the agreement as an interim stop-gap.

    But why is expecting those on the stop-gap to prove they meet the agreed requirements to get settled status a breach of the agreement?

    How was pre-settled status ever meant to be full settled status? If it was, surely it would have been called settled status in the first place and not something else?
    https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-government-faces-legal-action-over-treatment-of-eu-nationals/
    That one party claims something is unlawful doesn't make it so.

    Are you suggesting pre-settled status should never expire?
    I suggest that if we agreed to an Independent Monitoring Authority, we should follow their guidance on interpretation.
    Why on earth would you do that?
    It is called being reasonable and restoring trust and confidence.
    I’ve a bridge to sell if you are buying?
    If it was a bridge I wanted to buy I am sure we could manage the transaction without ending up in court. Why does this government feel the need to take everything to court?
    Selection bias.

    You only see the disputes that end up in court
    I am reminded of a story that was told to me by a builder. As he arrived (with his team) at the property to setup and start work, he overheard the very shouty client on the phone. To his lawyer. Arranging to start the legal proceedings against him (the builder) - so as to negotiate a reduction in the agreed price.
    My last boss was like that.
    His approach to everybody - even during my interview - was to negotiate as if the counterparty was a hostile litigant.

    That’s another reason I’m going to New York.
    Can work but just as likely to backfire. Eg a dispute I had quite recently over a property matter. The guy I was dealing with was a pro lawyer and he was forever threatening this and that and the other. Every email I'd get would be in that bullshit lawyerspeak "offer without prejudice", "rights fully reserved", it is "regrettable", bla bla, all seeking to intimidate. And it did. I was intimidated. But I was also very very pissed off and so I totally screwed him over.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986

    Been trying to book a booster today. My position in the "queue" keeps going up rather than down. Given up.

    Aren't/weren't you just in hospital?
    You might think that would be a good place to give/persuade folk to get jabbed? Captive audience and all.
    Hope you are recovered now.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:


    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    God Almighty - Patel now attacking EU citizens who have settled status here:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patels-new-rule-is-a-blow-for-eu-citizens-who-live-in-britain-tdgw99z59

    One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.

    There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.

    Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.

    This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
    Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.

    The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
    None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
    Oh it absolutely is relevant.

    Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
    So what.

    The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.

    Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
    So what? The point is if you wanted to avoid BrexitUK you could just as easily go to inner London or inner Manchester than NYC.

    You will find rural, small town Trump voting America just as pro tighter immigration controls as rural, small town Brexit and Tory voting UK
    Epping is a hell of a lot closer to inner London than Bum****, Indiana, is to NYC.
    Culturally rural Epping Forest is closer to rural and smalltown America than inner London or NYC.

    The other half of Epping Forest is more suburban but still not inner city in values either, more swings either way
    I don’t recall meeting many gun-toting guys in pickup trucks when I lived round Epping Forest way.
    Only because it is against the law here, if it was plenty would do.

    If you wanted a part of the UK likely to vote for Trump, rural Epping Forest would be about as close as you could get
    Isn't Epping Forest just full of rich old NIMBYs? Not exactly Trump's core vote.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    edited December 2021

    Been trying to book a booster today. My position in the "queue" keeps going up rather than down. Given up.

    Make sure you keep the window open and in focus, if you don't then you lose your place in the queue.
  • Options
    Using the same model as the HSA use for omicron cases, i confidently predict that bitcoin is going to 27 trillion dollars per coin by next year.....
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,986
    Serious times call for serious leadership.

    Boris Johnson has lost his authority, and with it, his ability to lead.

    We are stuck with the worst Prime Minister at the worst possible time.

    #PMQs
    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1471119907693772806/video/1
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Alistair said:

    I just saw Ed Conway's article on the 200k infections figure

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-why-health-secretarys-200k-omicron-case-claim-was-back-of-envelope-sum-not-a-definitive-number-12495814

    URL basically captures the gist of the articles

    This is the crucial bit....

    "It was not the result of new intelligence or new data. It was not a carefully-honed new model - the kind of thing using behavioural and virological programming sometimes churned out by members of SPI-M."

    Its embarrassing total bollocks... remember this was 200k just for England, a million in England by next week....they literally fitted an exponential through a single noisy data point with the exponential factor also having plenty of uncertainty. Its the sort of nonsense even high school maths teaches against.
    It's a joke, but at the same time these are the kinds of data points that will drive us towards an unnecessary lockdown.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857
    kinabalu said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    God Almighty - Patel now attacking EU citizens who have settled status here:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patels-new-rule-is-a-blow-for-eu-citizens-who-live-in-britain-tdgw99z59

    What do you suggest?

    Pre-settled status EU citizens are automatically granted settled status at the end of 5 years?

    Even if they've spent some or all of that abroad?

    Why should EU citizens be treated differently to citizens from other countries who have to prove their residence when applying for permanent residence?
    Because it's a breach of the agreement with the EU?

    I mean I know this government places no store on legal agreements but even so.
    It is because it is a breach of the agreement with the EU, but also that agreement is effectively an agreement with millions of our neighbours, friends, co-workers, relatives, suppliers, customers. That we renege on such key agreements so casually and quickly is shameful.
    How is the agreement breached?

    Proving you had met the requirements to get settled status was a part of the agreement.

    For those who didn't meet the requirements, then pre-settled status was a part of the agreement as an interim stop-gap.

    But why is expecting those on the stop-gap to prove they meet the agreed requirements to get settled status a breach of the agreement?

    How was pre-settled status ever meant to be full settled status? If it was, surely it would have been called settled status in the first place and not something else?
    https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-government-faces-legal-action-over-treatment-of-eu-nationals/
    That one party claims something is unlawful doesn't make it so.

    Are you suggesting pre-settled status should never expire?
    I suggest that if we agreed to an Independent Monitoring Authority, we should follow their guidance on interpretation.
    Why on earth would you do that?
    It is called being reasonable and restoring trust and confidence.
    I’ve a bridge to sell if you are buying?
    If it was a bridge I wanted to buy I am sure we could manage the transaction without ending up in court. Why does this government feel the need to take everything to court?
    Selection bias.

    You only see the disputes that end up in court
    I am reminded of a story that was told to me by a builder. As he arrived (with his team) at the property to setup and start work, he overheard the very shouty client on the phone. To his lawyer. Arranging to start the legal proceedings against him (the builder) - so as to negotiate a reduction in the agreed price.
    My last boss was like that.
    His approach to everybody - even during my interview - was to negotiate as if the counterparty was a hostile litigant.

    That’s another reason I’m going to New York.
    Can work but just as likely to backfire. Eg a dispute I had quite recently over a property matter. The guy I was dealing with was a pro lawyer and he was forever threatening this and that and the other. Every email I'd get would be in that bullshit lawyerspeak "offer without prejudice", "rights fully reserved", it is "regrettable", bla bla, all seeking to intimidate. And it did. I was intimidated. But I was also very very pissed off and so I totally screwed him over.
    With my boss, it simply meant he was incapable of getting long term commitment from his team, and unable to strike up satisfying partnerships.

    None of which had impeded his ascent to #3 or #4 of a multi-billion company, mind you.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    MaxPB said:

    Been trying to book a booster today. My position in the "queue" keeps going up rather than down. Given up.

    Make sure you keep the window open, if you don't then you lose your place in the queue.
    I've been leaving the tab open and active. Maybe that isn't enough - I've had it open for hours.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,995
    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Charles said:

    Pretty sure this cnut wouldn't pass the Voight-Kampff test.


    Not necessarily…

    “At the moment” is the key piece

    Road deaths @2000 pa = 40 pw

    Covid deaths are c 100-150 at the moment (from memory) but I believe those include “with covid”. *If* you make the distinction between “with” & “of” ( I don’t) it is plausible that “of” deaths are less than 40 pw
    Typical Tory Hooray Henry bollox trying to support an absolute lying bellend Tory
    Hello Malky. Nice to see you on form despite the dreich weather (at least in the east). Currently packing up a heap of assorted books promised to various people (and very glad RM now comes to collect once booked) and staring at the nevertheless small heap of Xmas cards.
    Hello Carnyx, I am well behind, not even got Christmas cards yet , been very busy at work and at daughter's at weekends. Weather fairly unpleasant on west coast as well.
  • Options

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    God Almighty - Patel now attacking EU citizens who have settled status here:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patels-new-rule-is-a-blow-for-eu-citizens-who-live-in-britain-tdgw99z59

    What do you suggest?

    Pre-settled status EU citizens are automatically granted settled status at the end of 5 years?

    Even if they've spent some or all of that abroad?

    Why should EU citizens be treated differently to citizens from other countries who have to prove their residence when applying for permanent residence?
    Because it's a breach of the agreement with the EU?

    I mean I know this government places no store on legal agreements but even so.
    It is because it is a breach of the agreement with the EU, but also that agreement is effectively an agreement with millions of our neighbours, friends, co-workers, relatives, suppliers, customers. That we renege on such key agreements so casually and quickly is shameful.
    How is the agreement breached?

    Proving you had met the requirements to get settled status was a part of the agreement.

    For those who didn't meet the requirements, then pre-settled status was a part of the agreement as an interim stop-gap.

    But why is expecting those on the stop-gap to prove they meet the agreed requirements to get settled status a breach of the agreement?

    How was pre-settled status ever meant to be full settled status? If it was, surely it would have been called settled status in the first place and not something else?
    https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-government-faces-legal-action-over-treatment-of-eu-nationals/
    That one party claims something is unlawful doesn't make it so.

    Are you suggesting pre-settled status should never expire?
    I suggest that if we agreed to an Independent Monitoring Authority, we should follow their guidance on interpretation.
    Why on earth would you do that?
    It is called being reasonable and restoring trust and confidence.
    I’ve a bridge to sell if you are buying?
    If it was a bridge I wanted to buy I am sure we could manage the transaction without ending up in court. Why does this government feel the need to take everything to court?
    Selection bias.

    You only see the disputes that end up in court
    I am reminded of a story that was told to me by a builder. As he arrived (with his team) at the property to setup and start work, he overheard the very shouty client on the phone. To his lawyer. Arranging to start the legal proceedings against him (the builder) - so as to negotiate a reduction in the agreed price.
    My last boss was like that.
    His approach to everybody - even during my interview - was to negotiate as if the counterparty was a hostile litigant.

    That’s another reason I’m going to New York.
    Can't tell if that is a joke or not!?
    No joke.

    He was not in fact supposed to be my boss. Some kind of switcheroo happened before I started.

    But in my initial interview his opening gambit was something like, “what the fuck makes you think you’re qualified to work here?”
    You clearly know the likes of Trump are permanently in the New York court system, so whilst the UK boss may be annoying, and there may be other good reasons for moving to NY, avoiding the use of frivolous law suits in business is not a coherent reason to move there.
    Moving to NY to get away from lawfare does have the feel of moving into a lion's enclosure to get away from danger.
    Or voting for Boris and JRM because someone dislikes the elite perhaps.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    MaxPB said:

    Been trying to book a booster today. My position in the "queue" keeps going up rather than down. Given up.

    Make sure you keep the window open, if you don't then you lose your place in the queue.
    Crumbs. I read that and thought. Ventilation? Sound advice but not relevant.
    Best wishes Max!! May you remain asymptomatic.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited December 2021

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:


    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    God Almighty - Patel now attacking EU citizens who have settled status here:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patels-new-rule-is-a-blow-for-eu-citizens-who-live-in-britain-tdgw99z59

    One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.

    There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.

    Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.

    This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
    Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.

    The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
    None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
    Oh it absolutely is relevant.

    Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
    So what.

    The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.

    Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
    So what? The point is if you wanted to avoid BrexitUK you could just as easily go to inner London or inner Manchester than NYC.

    You will find rural, small town Trump voting America just as pro tighter immigration controls as rural, small town Brexit and Tory voting UK
    Epping is a hell of a lot closer to inner London than Bum****, Indiana, is to NYC.
    Culturally rural Epping Forest is closer to rural and smalltown America than inner London or NYC.

    The other half of Epping Forest is more suburban but still not inner city in values either, more swings either way
    I don’t recall meeting many gun-toting guys in pickup trucks when I lived round Epping Forest way.
    Only because it is against the law here, if it was plenty would do.

    If you wanted a part of the UK likely to vote for Trump, rural Epping Forest would be about as close as you could get
    Isn't Epping Forest just full of rich old NIMBYs? Not exactly Trump's core vote.
    In Epping town itself, Theydon Bois, the posher bits of Loughton and Buckhurst Hill plus new money in Chigwell and white working class in Waltham Abbey and rural parts of Ongar and North Weald. It would be the latter 3 where Trump could get a lot of votes here. There is even a Britain First councillor in one Waltham Abbey ward and UKIP won several councillors in Waltham Abbey too.

    Trump won plenty of rich old people in the US however

  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    edited December 2021

    MaxPB said:

    Been trying to book a booster today. My position in the "queue" keeps going up rather than down. Given up.

    Make sure you keep the window open, if you don't then you lose your place in the queue.
    I've been leaving the tab open and active. Maybe that isn't enough - I've had it open for hours.
    I did it on my phone, just kept the page open and kept the phone from sleeping or the screen turning off, it took about 5 mins. But yeah, one of the issues is shifting to another tab, that can lose you your place in the queue as well.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    I just saw Ed Conway's article on the 200k infections figure

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-why-health-secretarys-200k-omicron-case-claim-was-back-of-envelope-sum-not-a-definitive-number-12495814

    URL basically captures the gist of the articles

    This is the crucial bit....

    "It was not the result of new intelligence or new data. It was not a carefully-honed new model - the kind of thing using behavioural and virological programming sometimes churned out by members of SPI-M."

    Its embarrassing total bollocks... remember this was 200k just for England, a million in England by next week....they literally fitted an exponential through a single noisy data point with the exponential factor also having plenty of uncertainty. Its the sort of nonsense even high school maths teaches against.
    It's a joke, but at the same time these are the kinds of data points that will drive us towards an unnecessary lockdown.
    What is most disappointing is Javid reads this crap out....he is supposed to have some concept of numbers, maths and models having been a banker.

    Somebody telling me a million cases a day for England in just over a weeks time...I want to see your workings before i even think about reading it out in public.
  • Options
    .

    Using the same model as the HSA use for omicron cases, i confidently predict that bitcoin is going to 27 trillion dollars per coin by next year.....

    Put that on Twitter and you'll get many in all serious agreeing with you (!)

    Not a fad though . . .
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,442

    kinabalu said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    God Almighty - Patel now attacking EU citizens who have settled status here:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patels-new-rule-is-a-blow-for-eu-citizens-who-live-in-britain-tdgw99z59

    What do you suggest?

    Pre-settled status EU citizens are automatically granted settled status at the end of 5 years?

    Even if they've spent some or all of that abroad?

    Why should EU citizens be treated differently to citizens from other countries who have to prove their residence when applying for permanent residence?
    Because it's a breach of the agreement with the EU?

    I mean I know this government places no store on legal agreements but even so.
    It is because it is a breach of the agreement with the EU, but also that agreement is effectively an agreement with millions of our neighbours, friends, co-workers, relatives, suppliers, customers. That we renege on such key agreements so casually and quickly is shameful.
    How is the agreement breached?

    Proving you had met the requirements to get settled status was a part of the agreement.

    For those who didn't meet the requirements, then pre-settled status was a part of the agreement as an interim stop-gap.

    But why is expecting those on the stop-gap to prove they meet the agreed requirements to get settled status a breach of the agreement?

    How was pre-settled status ever meant to be full settled status? If it was, surely it would have been called settled status in the first place and not something else?
    https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-government-faces-legal-action-over-treatment-of-eu-nationals/
    That one party claims something is unlawful doesn't make it so.

    Are you suggesting pre-settled status should never expire?
    I suggest that if we agreed to an Independent Monitoring Authority, we should follow their guidance on interpretation.
    Why on earth would you do that?
    It is called being reasonable and restoring trust and confidence.
    I’ve a bridge to sell if you are buying?
    If it was a bridge I wanted to buy I am sure we could manage the transaction without ending up in court. Why does this government feel the need to take everything to court?
    Selection bias.

    You only see the disputes that end up in court
    I am reminded of a story that was told to me by a builder. As he arrived (with his team) at the property to setup and start work, he overheard the very shouty client on the phone. To his lawyer. Arranging to start the legal proceedings against him (the builder) - so as to negotiate a reduction in the agreed price.
    My last boss was like that.
    His approach to everybody - even during my interview - was to negotiate as if the counterparty was a hostile litigant.

    That’s another reason I’m going to New York.
    Can work but just as likely to backfire. Eg a dispute I had quite recently over a property matter. The guy I was dealing with was a pro lawyer and he was forever threatening this and that and the other. Every email I'd get would be in that bullshit lawyerspeak "offer without prejudice", "rights fully reserved", it is "regrettable", bla bla, all seeking to intimidate. And it did. I was intimidated. But I was also very very pissed off and so I totally screwed him over.
    With my boss, it simply meant he was incapable of getting long term commitment from his team, and unable to strike up satisfying partnerships.

    None of which had impeded his ascent to #3 or #4 of a multi-billion company, mind you.
    Did he have a shrine to Jack Welch in his office?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,003
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:


    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    God Almighty - Patel now attacking EU citizens who have settled status here:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patels-new-rule-is-a-blow-for-eu-citizens-who-live-in-britain-tdgw99z59

    One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.

    There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.

    Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.

    This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
    Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.

    The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
    None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
    Oh it absolutely is relevant.

    Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
    So what.

    The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.

    Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
    So what? The point is if you wanted to avoid BrexitUK you could just as easily go to inner London or inner Manchester than NYC.

    You will find rural, small town Trump voting America just as pro tighter immigration controls as rural, small town Brexit and Tory voting UK
    Epping is a hell of a lot closer to inner London than Bum****, Indiana, is to NYC.
    Culturally rural Epping Forest is closer to rural and smalltown America than inner London or NYC.

    The other half of Epping Forest is more suburban but still not inner city in values either, more swings either way
    I don’t recall meeting many gun-toting guys in pickup trucks when I lived round Epping Forest way.
    Only because it is against the law here, if it was plenty would do.

    If you wanted a part of the UK likely to vote for Trump, rural Epping Forest would be about as close as you could get
    Isn't Epping Forest just full of rich old NIMBYs? Not exactly Trump's core vote.
    In Epping town itself, Theydon Bois, the posher bits of Loughton and Buckhurst Hill plus new money in Chigwell and white working class in Waltham Abbey and rural parts of Ongar and North Weald. It would be the latter 3 where Trump could get a lot of votes here. There is even a Britain First councillor in one Waltham Abbey ward and UKIP won several councillors in Waltham Abbey too.

    Trump won plenty of rich old people in the US however

    Worked in Buckhurst Hill for a short while. Glad to get away. People I met were Ok, didn't like the place I worked, or the boss. One of the most unreasonable people I've ever met.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226

    656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 548,039
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 54,234
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 31,916
    NI 22,522

    Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....

    Targets are a bullshit way of managing something. Every time I've come across them in practice that's been the case. Just leads to stress cascading downwards and numbers being fiddled. The deal should have been "as many as possible" and then put in place the resource and the system to facilitate.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    For Gardenwalker, here are the 2020 Presidential election results for New York by county. In a state Biden won 60.9% to 37.7%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York#/media/File:New_York_Presidential_Election_Results_2020.svg

    If you want to avoid "Stoke", then don't stray far from Manhattan is my advice.

    Definitely.

    Don’t worry, I am a confirmed urbanite.

    Having said that, I generally find Americans much more friendly and welcoming, regardless of their mad political views.
    I'm with you. If I was in trouble and needing help*, there's nowhere I'd rather be than the US for people pulling together to help you out. Despite all the mad shit that goes on there, they are the nicest folk on the planet.

    *excluding urgent medical care, natch!

  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,442
    kinabalu said:

    656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 548,039
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 54,234
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 31,916
    NI 22,522

    Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....

    Targets are a bullshit way of managing something. Every time I've come across them in practice that's been the case. Just leads to stress cascading downwards and numbers being fiddled. The deal should have been "as many as possible" and then put in place the resource and the system to facilitate.
    There is no actual target per day....
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,986
    SCOOP (because no-one else cares):

    Conservative MP Laurence Robertson has been sacked from his unpaid job as a trade envoy to Angola and Zambia after he rebelled against the government on COVID rules last night.

    https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1471129971812933636
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,442
    Stocky said:

    Charles said:

    Pretty sure this cnut wouldn't pass the Voight-Kampff test.


    Not necessarily…

    “At the moment” is the key piece

    Road deaths @2000 pa = 40 pw

    Covid deaths are c 100-150 at the moment (from memory) but I believe those include “with covid”. *If* you make the distinction between “with” & “of” ( I don’t) it is plausible that “of” deaths are less than 40 pw
    800 people a week die within 28 days of a positive test at the moment.

    More than 40 of them will have died from COVID.

    Charles said:

    Pretty sure this cnut wouldn't pass the Voight-Kampff test.


    Not necessarily…

    “At the moment” is the key piece

    Road deaths @2000 pa = 40 pw

    Covid deaths are c 100-150 at the moment (from memory) but I believe those include “with covid”. *If* you make the distinction between “with” & “of” ( I don’t) it is plausible that “of” deaths are less than 40 pw
    800 people a week die within 28 days of a positive test at the moment.

    More than 40 of them will have died from COVID.
    Plus those that died of Covid AFTER the 28 days. They are not in the figures - people always forget that.
    The reason that 28 days is used, is not because it is a medically perfect cut-off, but that the numbers balance out, approximately, for the various effects of having a cut off, when you use 28 days.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 548,039
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 54,234
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 31,916
    NI 22,522

    Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....

    This is before the 15 minute waiting time rule change, that will allow for half a million more doses per day. As I said when the policy was updated, we've got a reasonably good chance of making the target or coming very close to it.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,983
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Been trying to book a booster today. My position in the "queue" keeps going up rather than down. Given up.

    Make sure you keep the window open, if you don't then you lose your place in the queue.
    I've been leaving the tab open and active. Maybe that isn't enough - I've had it open for hours.
    I did it on my phone, just kept the page open and kept the phone from sleeping or the screen turning off, it took about 5 mins. But yeah, one of the issues is shifting to another tab, that can lose you your place in the queue as well.
    Modern browsers will disable a tab if it's not visible on the screen.

    The way round it is not to use a tab for important pages but to open it in a separate window and leave it somewhere on your computer screen.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,986
    🚨"Who exactly does the @MetPoliceUK work for ma'am? Our citizens, or Boris Johnson?" 🚨

    (Location: New Scotland Yard. Sound on) https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1471125380228653060/video/1
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857

    For Gardenwalker, here are the 2020 Presidential election results for New York by county. In a state Biden won 60.9% to 37.7%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York#/media/File:New_York_Presidential_Election_Results_2020.svg

    If you want to avoid "Stoke", then don't stray far from Manhattan is my advice.

    Definitely.

    Don’t worry, I am a confirmed urbanite.

    Having said that, I generally find Americans much more friendly and welcoming, regardless of their mad political views.
    I'm with you. If I was in trouble and needing help*, there's nowhere I'd rather be than the US for people pulling together to help you out. Despite all the mad shit that goes on there, they are the nicest folk on the planet.

    *excluding urgent medical care, natch!

    I have travelled widely in the US.
    It remains a great endeavour, and a phenomenal country. People are outstandingly warm.

    But I “pass” as white, middle class or even “posh”.
  • Options
    kinabalu said:

    656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 548,039
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 54,234
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 31,916
    NI 22,522

    Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....

    Targets are a bullshit way of managing something. Every time I've come across them in practice that's been the case. Just leads to stress cascading downwards and numbers being fiddled. The deal should have been "as many as possible" and then put in place the resource and the system to facilitate.
    Try telling your theory to anyone in sport or anyone who has run a business. Lack of objectives leads to drift and underperformance. What you are probably referring to is badly drafted targets. A target that is fundamentally unachievable is pointless. This is an example of that, but not an example of targets per se.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857
    Scott_xP said:

    SCOOP (because no-one else cares):

    Conservative MP Laurence Robertson has been sacked from his unpaid job as a trade envoy to Angola and Zambia after he rebelled against the government on COVID rules last night.

    https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1471129971812933636

    That’ll learn him.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Thanks @MaxPB I've got an appointment booked next Wednesday.

    Glad to hear it!
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Scott_xP said:

    SCOOP (because no-one else cares):

    Conservative MP Laurence Robertson has been sacked from his unpaid job as a trade envoy to Angola and Zambia after he rebelled against the government on COVID rules last night.

    https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1471129971812933636

    That’ll learn him.
    It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 548,039
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 54,234
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 31,916
    NI 22,522

    Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....

    This is before the 15 minute waiting time rule change, that will allow for half a million more doses per day. As I said when the policy was updated, we've got a reasonably good chance of making the target or coming very close to it.
    Given the lag in data reporting normally would this be jabs done on Monday?

    So anyone who booked a jab on Monday won't have had time to be included in this data yet?

    I expect we're going to have a million jabs reported before Christmas day. I had the very highest guess in the competition because I factored in some dodgy days of data due to a Christmas effect but I think if my guess isn't met it could be because everyone is done sooner than expected so there's no need for numbers to get that high.
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    MaxPB said:

    656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 548,039
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 54,234
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 31,916
    NI 22,522

    Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....

    This is before the 15 minute waiting time rule change, that will allow for half a million more doses per day. As I said when the policy was updated, we've got a reasonably good chance of making the target or coming very close to it.
    Jabbed yesterday, zero waiting time for me or anyone else there.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:


    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    God Almighty - Patel now attacking EU citizens who have settled status here:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patels-new-rule-is-a-blow-for-eu-citizens-who-live-in-britain-tdgw99z59

    One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.

    There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.

    Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.

    This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
    Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.

    The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
    None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
    Oh it absolutely is relevant.

    Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
    So what.

    The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.

    Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
    So what? The point is if you wanted to avoid BrexitUK you could just as easily go to inner London or inner Manchester than NYC.

    You will find rural, small town Trump voting America just as pro tighter immigration controls as rural, small town Brexit and Tory voting UK
    Epping is a hell of a lot closer to inner London than Bum****, Indiana, is to NYC.
    Culturally rural Epping Forest is closer to rural and smalltown America than inner London or NYC.

    The other half of Epping Forest is more suburban but still not inner city in values either, more swings either way
    I don’t recall meeting many gun-toting guys in pickup trucks when I lived round Epping Forest way.
    Only because it is against the law here, if it was plenty would do.

    If you wanted a part of the UK likely to vote for Trump, rural Epping Forest would be about as close as you could get
    I think parts of Lincolnshire or the Cambridgeshire fens more so.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    edited December 2021

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    I just saw Ed Conway's article on the 200k infections figure

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-why-health-secretarys-200k-omicron-case-claim-was-back-of-envelope-sum-not-a-definitive-number-12495814

    URL basically captures the gist of the articles

    This is the crucial bit....

    "It was not the result of new intelligence or new data. It was not a carefully-honed new model - the kind of thing using behavioural and virological programming sometimes churned out by members of SPI-M."

    Its embarrassing total bollocks... remember this was 200k just for England, a million in England by next week....they literally fitted an exponential through a single noisy data point with the exponential factor also having plenty of uncertainty. Its the sort of nonsense even high school maths teaches against.
    It's a joke, but at the same time these are the kinds of data points that will drive us towards an unnecessary lockdown.
    What is most disappointing is Javid reads this crap out....he is supposed to have some concept of numbers, maths and models having been a banker.

    Somebody telling me a million cases a day for England in just over a weeks time...I want to see your workings before i even think about reading it out in public.
    I think a lot of people really don't have a feel for numbers even though they might be perfectly capable of doing calculations on paper and possess qualifications that ought to mean they are numerate. We've seen so many examples of this over the last couple of years, and coming from all sorts of backgrounds including people you would assume have to be numerate due to their professions and extensive qualifications.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,314

    Alistair said:

    I just saw Ed Conway's article on the 200k infections figure

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-why-health-secretarys-200k-omicron-case-claim-was-back-of-envelope-sum-not-a-definitive-number-12495814

    URL basically captures the gist of the articles

    This is the crucial bit....

    "It was not the result of new intelligence or new data. It was not a carefully-honed new model - the kind of thing using behavioural and virological programming sometimes churned out by members of SPI-M."

    Its embarrassing total bollocks... remember this was 200k just for England, a million in England by next week....they literally fitted an exponential through a single noisy data point with the exponential factor also having plenty of uncertainty. Its the sort of nonsense even high school maths teaches against.
    But that @Chris embraces as the definitive truth of truths.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SCOOP (because no-one else cares):

    Conservative MP Laurence Robertson has been sacked from his unpaid job as a trade envoy to Angola and Zambia after he rebelled against the government on COVID rules last night.

    https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1471129971812933636

    That’ll learn him.
    It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
    I am genuinely confused by this “punishment”.
    Is it supposed to send a message?

    Sorry Boris, you lost pretty much everyone not on the payroll.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,204

    There are now 14 people in hospital with Omicron in the UK, the House of Commons has been told. Previously, there were thought to be 10 people.

    Nobody tell Raab..

    More seriously these stats are pointless.

    14? And around 350,000 cases of omicron, allegedly. I know we need to consider lags, but either the 350,000 is bollox or we have nothing to really stress about.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226

    kinabalu said:

    Ratters said:

    kinabalu said:

    The 'staggering number' of projected cases comes from the estimated less than 2 day doubling time, doesn't it?

    By my calculations, if we currently have 10,000 Omicron cases a day, a continuation of the 2 day doubling time as assumed will mean we'll have over 300 million cases a day in a month.

    Very worrying indeed.
    Which of course is fantasy, being 6 times the population. But what might not be fantasy is it gets a few doubles in before the growth shallows out and peaks. That could be a big number. Then the small % of these who require hospital x that big number could be a number which overwhelms the health service. This is the heart of the matter - just like it was for the previous waves. So a similar risk calc is required but factoring in a changed politics, a changed public, and changed govt finances.
    I suspect concern about absenteeism through sickness is also a major factor given an NHS that was in (slow) recovery mode before Omicron.
    Yep, increased demand meets reduced supply, with the virus causing both. It's a worry. Bottom line is, I don't see what the government has to gain from fabricating a threat that isn't there. We were riding the Delta exit wave to a resumption of normality quite soon and they have no incentive, as far as I can see, to claim that Omicron is a rock in the pond if it most likely isn't.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,846
    edited December 2021
    I expect the Tories to hold the seat tomorrow . Omicron has helped Johnson with his airtime at press briefings and tv address and partygate will resonate less this week .

    I do wonder why this seat was ever in real doubt given its high Leave vote . Johnson has been fortunate that the two by-elections have occurred in favourable constituencies.

This discussion has been closed.