656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
This is before the 15 minute waiting time rule change, that will allow for half a million more doses per day. As I said when the policy was updated, we've got a reasonably good chance of making the target or coming very close to it.
Never really understood the need for the 15 minute waiting time. If you didn't have a reaction after doses 1 and 2, why would it happen after 3? Should imagine it will be a very unusual event - and not worth the loss of extra jab time that can be undertaken.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h They're gonna introduce extra restrictions, aren't they? Dear oh dear.
I don't see how Boris stays on as PM if this happens, last night was about as big of a warning shot as he's going to get. Push for more restrictions and he'll be dumped, Raab becomes caretaker and there's a leadership election.
A hundred Tories were willing to say this is going too far despite the three line whip. That's how many were prepared to put their heads above the parapets despite the payroll vote being forced to vote Aye.
In a confidence vote its a secret ballot, isn't it? If there's a lockdown again then these 100 votes could easily be combined with enough payroll votes who voted Aye only due to the whip to force Boris out. I expect Sunak and Truss and their supporters would both be voting to No Confidence in a secret ballot but can't vote Nay in a whipped vote.
I don't see how Boris can survive attempting another lockdown now. The numbers just aren't there. If he tries, he'll be out like May should have been three years ago.
Tory MPs would be mad to get rid of Boris over lockdown. It would crash and burn the Govt and the party. Won't happen. And who would be the alternative who lead the country into a world of freedom and light?
Interesting post here from a sane Tory commentator who puts the case for Boris.
"Here is a man who can reach and sway audiences in a way that a purely technocratic Prime Minister might struggle to do. It may be that in some future pandemic, when the occupant of Number 10 is a dull figure who fails to sustain interest over a long period, we shall wish we still had, as was the case in the good old days, a leader with Johnson’s superlative abilities as a communicator."
Did this "sane Tory commentator" write that piece of drivel after the Peppa Pig speech?
"Johnson's superlative abilities as a communicator"? Um, err...no!
Off topic, just looking at one of the new look passports (remember this was one of the main "benefits" of Brexit), and can't help noticing that they are not navy blue, but actually black! Even pointed a torch at it to see if it was actually blue: nope it is black. Perhaps we are in mourning for losing our place in the world as a serious country.
Now found the tab you're obviously quoting. Those are still very low levels, and if you filter for Gauteng the hospital data rise appears to be near flattening this week, same as cases. So unless the deaths figire has got 4 more doubling cycles in it before that happens, it isn't going to match the last wave in south africa, let alone top it.
656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
This is before the 15 minute waiting time rule change, that will allow for half a million more doses per day. As I said when the policy was updated, we've got a reasonably good chance of making the target or coming very close to it.
Never really understood the need for the 15 minute waiting time. If you didn't have a reaction after doses 1 and 2, why would it happen after 3? Should imagine it will be a very unusual event - and not worth the loss of extra jab time that can be undertaken.
That's relevant for Pfizer and Moderna but there was no 15 minute wait for AZ, so for 1 set of people it's not known if they will suffer a reaction or not.
656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
This is before the 15 minute waiting time rule change, that will allow for half a million more doses per day. As I said when the policy was updated, we've got a reasonably good chance of making the target or coming very close to it.
Never really understood the need for the 15 minute waiting time. If you didn't have a reaction after doses 1 and 2, why would it happen after 3? Should imagine it will be a very unusual event - and not worth the loss of extra jab time that can be undertaken.
I believe in total there has been 17 bad reactions, none deadly, and they know its among those who have previously reacted badly to things like bee stings. If you never suffered any sort of anaphylactic shock was absolutely no need to wait.
The 'staggering number' of projected cases comes from the estimated less than 2 day doubling time, doesn't it?
Yes.
Right. So if it does blow up like that - and I don't see a good reason to doubt it - we must hope that the early indications of it being a relatively mild non-hospitalizing disease cf the delta variant are confirmed. And ditto for your dose btw. Mild, I very much hope.
There is good reason to doubt it, simply every exponent has a ceiling as we saw with Delta. In my case, it's almost non-existent in terms of symptoms, yesterday was pretty awful but that is probably because I got my third jab on Monday. My wife is certain that when we do our PCRs they will be negative, I don't think so.
Well let's hope it stays that way. Sure it will. Young gun like you plus all your jabs.
Yes, I know it has a ceiling. It rockets then shallows then peaks then drops away. Question is where will it peak and how quickly. What they are looking at is clearly scaring them. Should I also be concerned? Yes, I think so. I think it makes sense to be a bit worried. Not so much about the virus per se as an individual but about the NHS falling over and/or about another (proper) lockdown. I still don't expect this, on balance, but I'd be pretty sure that if they do it it'll be because there's no realistic practical alternative. The politics, esp after yesterday's vote, steers heavily away from it.
What they're looking at is a purely mathematical calculation based on some poorly understood factors. They're saying that the UK is currently experiencing 350k cases per day, the idea is ridiculous. We have enough same day result lateral flow testing to pick up any surge like that.
I am still waiting for some sensible numbers or facts from the government.
Am I going mad?
I am quite prepared to believe that omicron will cause the NHS to collapse, but nobody seems to want to show the working.
Because right now there's no real world data to support that theory, just a lot of guess work.
Sure. But there are reasonable estimates, and confidence intervals etc. Admittedly I’m not 24/7 on the news, but I’d like to think I would have picked up a sane and rational justification for the government’s measures.
There's just little to no rational discussion. The NHS says "this is bad, will hurt NHS" and because it's a national religion the politicians all go mental.
And yet the history of the pandemic shows the govt acting if anything a bit late to bring in NPIs and showing little inclination to keep them once the numbers fall away. And it also shows many many other countries taking action to protect their health services.
The 'staggering number' of projected cases comes from the estimated less than 2 day doubling time, doesn't it?
By my calculations, if we currently have 10,000 Omicron cases a day, a continuation of the 2 day doubling time as assumed will mean we'll have over 300 million cases a day in a month.
Very worrying indeed.
Which of course is fantasy, being 6 times the population. But what might not be fantasy is it gets a few doubles in before the growth shallows out and peaks. That could be a big number. Then the small % of these who require hospital x that big number could be a number which overwhelms the health service. This is the heart of the matter - just like it was for the previous waves. So a similar risk calc is required but factoring in a changed politics, a changed public, and changed govt finances.
I suspect concern about absenteeism through sickness is also a major factor given an NHS that was in (slow) recovery mode before Omicron.
Yep, increased demand meets reduced supply, with the virus causing both. It's a worry. Bottom line is, I don't see what the government has to gain from fabricating a threat that isn't there. We were riding the Delta exit wave to a resumption of normality quite soon and they have no incentive, as far as I can see, to claim that Omicron is a rock in the pond if it most likely isn't.
I don’t think the government is fabricating per se.
I think the scientists have said, this thing spreads like a mother-fucker, and if it is as serious as Delta it is going to collapse the NHS.
…But we can’t be sure.
At the same time Boris has been looking for a dead cat to deflect from his personal scandals, and he thinks he can kill two birds with one stone (shades of the O-Patz debacle).
To be honest it feels like utter chaos in Number 10. No strategy, just lots of noise and panic. The booster drive is about the only thing that makes sense.
It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
Have I missed something?
Boris gets a 100-strong rebellion after suggesting vaxports or LFT tests.
What sort of rebellion do we think would happen if he tried anything else. It (any further restrictions) is all over, surely.
Yes, it's all over for any additional restrictions. Boris would find himself quickly deposed and replaced with someone who campaigns on no more restrictions, time to live with COVID.
It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
Was it only two and a bit years ago that BoJo gaily terminated the whip of a score of Brexit rebels?
(BTW, did anyone on the payroll rebel? There were rumours of PPSes considering it. If not, it points to BoJo being in trouble, but not yet. And has anyone found Rishi? It's possible that he fell down between some sofa cushions.)
She says Royal Mail has been brilliant during the pandemic and they will "allow us to more than double our delivery capacity from Friday from 400,000 home delivered to 900,000".
There are other discussions going on too to increase capacity further says Dr Harries, who was talking to MPs on the transport select committee when she made the announcement.
Alliance pharmacies have had 6.4million tests sent to them to distribute in the community, where people need them.
-------
China profiting very nicely thank you....but won't somebody think of the turtles, all that plastic.
656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
Targets are a bullshit way of managing something. Every time I've come across them in practice that's been the case. Just leads to stress cascading downwards and numbers being fiddled. The deal should have been "as many as possible" and then put in place the resource and the system to facilitate.
Try telling your theory to anyone in sport or anyone who has run a business. Lack of objectives leads to drift and underperformance. What you are probably referring to is badly drafted targets. A target that is fundamentally unachievable is pointless. This is an example of that, but not an example of targets per se.
It applies to every field. But, yes, bottom up targets are fine. Ie those that flow organically from the resource and systems you put in place. I'm talking about top down ones. Those where a top banana decrees what "must happen" and then other people have to "deliver". These are toxic and are more common.
It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
Was it only two and a bit years ago that BoJo gaily terminated the whip of a score of Brexit rebels?
(BTW, did anyone on the payroll rebel? There were rumours of PPSes considering it. If not, it points to BoJo being in trouble, but not yet. And has anyone found Rishi? It's possible that he fell down between some sofa cushions.)
Kicking 100 MPs out of the party would be interesting, to say the least. Think they'd dump Boris first.
Think the PPSes were "convinced" to vote with the government after the scale of the rebellion became clear in the run up to last night. I heard the chief whip expected 80 to say they would rebel and then 30-40 to succumb to the pressure and row back for a total of 40-50. In the end they got the headcount completely wrong and totally underestimated how poorly these measures would go down with the party. In a free vote I'd expect somewhere around 250-270 Tory MPs to vote against and well over 300 to vote against any further restrictions. That's how angry the party is with Boris.
In one message, Kawczynski said: “I am looking for a position with a company as non exec director or adviser/consultant. Obviously my passion for Anglo Arab relations [is] something which could help a company with relations in the UK or Middle East. Not sure what remuneration I am looking for but you are such a good negotiator!!! Best wishes Daniel.”...
Where did you find this, Mr Nigel? Is it something doing the rounds in Shropshire by any chance?
Sorry, thought I'd provided a link. Front page of Guardian.
Although they are increasing capacity for boosters, i wonder about demand. How much of the rush this week is so people feel safer for meeting family over Christmas. It might be harder to get people to go and get jabbed between Christmas and New Year.
Off topic, just looking at one of the new look passports (remember this was one of the main "benefits" of Brexit), and can't help noticing that they are not navy blue, but actually black! Even pointed a torch at it to see if it was actually blue: nope it is black. Perhaps we are in mourning for losing our place in the world as a serious country.
How very dare you!
The black identifies as blue and you are being blackophobic in even daring to suggest otherwise.
656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
This is before the 15 minute waiting time rule change, that will allow for half a million more doses per day. As I said when the policy was updated, we've got a reasonably good chance of making the target or coming very close to it.
Given the lag in data reporting normally would this be jabs done on Monday?
So anyone who booked a jab on Monday won't have had time to be included in this data yet?
I expect we're going to have a million jabs reported before Christmas day. I had the very highest guess in the competition because I factored in some dodgy days of data due to a Christmas effect but I think if my guess isn't met it could be because everyone is done sooner than expected so there's no need for numbers to get that high.
I think there's potential for you to win the competition in the week before Christmas.
There's a motivation to get the booster *before* Christmas (even if it won't provide a large benefit until the start of January), schools will be shut, people will increasingly be on leave from work, some large new vaccination facilities are being opened.
The doubt in my mind is to what extent people will prefer to queue in the booking system (and stick to an appointment for January, say) as compared to queuing in person for a walk-in booster.
My wife's now boostered after 45 minutes in a queue, so she'll be cancelling the appointment she had made for next week.
656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
This is before the 15 minute waiting time rule change, that will allow for half a million more doses per day. As I said when the policy was updated, we've got a reasonably good chance of making the target or coming very close to it.
Never really understood the need for the 15 minute waiting time. If you didn't have a reaction after doses 1 and 2, why would it happen after 3? Should imagine it will be a very unusual event - and not worth the loss of extra jab time that can be undertaken.
I believe in total there has been 17 bad reactions, none deadly, and they know its among those who have previously reacted badly to things like bee stings. If you never suffered any sort of anaphylactic shock was absolutely no need to wait.
The other thing is that every 15 minute wait is a potential superspreader event at this stage.
I think with distancing and masks and ventilation that wasn't true when Delta was the main event, but risk reward balance has changed.
England's 12-player squad: Joe Root (capt), James Anderson, Stuart Broad, Rory Burns, Jos Buttler (wkt), Haseeb Hameed, Jack Leach, Dawid Malan, Ollie Pope, Ollie Robinson, Ben Stokes, Chris Woakes.
England resting their best (from 1st test) and fastest bowler they have in Australia where you need a real quick bowler..madness.
656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
This is before the 15 minute waiting time rule change, that will allow for half a million more doses per day. As I said when the policy was updated, we've got a reasonably good chance of making the target or coming very close to it.
Never really understood the need for the 15 minute waiting time. If you didn't have a reaction after doses 1 and 2, why would it happen after 3? Should imagine it will be a very unusual event - and not worth the loss of extra jab time that can be undertaken.
That's relevant for Pfizer and Moderna but there was no 15 minute wait for AZ, so for 1 set of people it's not known if they will suffer a reaction or not.
Yep, It was guidelines that both Pfizer and Moderna set out.
You had fairly new vaccine technology in these MRNA vaccines and they were just being cautious in that if you were going to have anaphylaxis or a major reaction it would be very likely within 15 mins of administering it.
We did well over 30,000 vaccinations during 1st and 2nd doses at our hospital hub and we had no major reactions that I can recall.
656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)
🏴 548,039 🏴 54,234 🏴 31,916 NI 22,522
Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....
Targets are a bullshit way of managing something. Every time I've come across them in practice that's been the case. Just leads to stress cascading downwards and numbers being fiddled. The deal should have been "as many as possible" and then put in place the resource and the system to facilitate.
There is no actual target per day....
What's all this 'million' business then? And then the semantics about "had" vs "offered"? Definite shades of that Hancock testing thing where the "target" became the be all and end all, divorced from meaning, and ended up being fiddled so as to let him do a fist pump.
Although they are increasing capacity for boosters, i wonder about demand. How much of the rush this week is so people feel safer for meeting family over Christmas. It might be harder to get people to go and get jabbed between Christmas and New Year.
Other than the fact that people might actually have the time to do it
Now found the tab you're obviously quoting. Those are still very low levels, and if you filter for Gauteng the hospital data rise appears to be near flattening this week, same as cases. So unless the deaths figire has got 4 more doubling cycles in it before that happens, it isn't going to match the last wave in south africa, let alone top it.
I haven't looked at the admissions figure but the death figure is seriously laggy, I wouldn't be suprised if admissions is likewise lagged.
It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
Was it only two and a bit years ago that BoJo gaily terminated the whip of a score of Brexit rebels?
(BTW, did anyone on the payroll rebel? There were rumours of PPSes considering it. If not, it points to BoJo being in trouble, but not yet. And has anyone found Rishi? It's possible that he fell down between some sofa cushions.)
Kicking 100 MPs out of the party would be interesting, to say the least. Think they'd dump Boris first.
Think the PPSes were "convinced" to vote with the government after the scale of the rebellion became clear in the run up to last night. I heard the chief whip expected 80 to say they would rebel and then 30-40 to succumb to the pressure and row back for a total of 40-50. In the end they got the headcount completely wrong and totally underestimated how poorly these measures would go down with the party. In a free vote I'd expect somewhere around 250-270 Tory MPs to vote against and well over 300 to vote against any further restrictions. That's how angry the party is with Boris.
A significant proportion within that 100 number are swivel-eyed English patriots like Chope, Bridgen and Davies. The Conservative Party would be a far happier and less angry place should Johnson jettison them.
It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
Have I missed something?
Boris gets a 100-strong rebellion after suggesting vaxports or LFT tests.
What sort of rebellion do we think would happen if he tried anything else. It (any further restrictions) is all over, surely.
Yes, it's all over for any additional restrictions. Boris would find himself quickly deposed and replaced with someone who campaigns on no more restrictions, time to live with COVID.
So 20 months on we finally go the whole hog and just let the thing rip, because so many Tory MPs are cognitively dysfunctional. ICU full. Triage - meaning deciding who doesn't get intensive care. Maybe meaning who doesn't get any medical care at all, and just dies alone in their own home. I pity the people who have to clean up the mess.
Although they are increasing capacity for boosters, i wonder about demand. How much of the rush this week is so people feel safer for meeting family over Christmas. It might be harder to get people to go and get jabbed between Christmas and New Year.
Other than the fact that people might actually have the time to do it
Yes and no. Although people aren't at work, a lot of people usually spend that time catching up with friends and family. The idea of spending all day in a queue for a booster, especially if it is cold and wet, and they are rather hung over / stuffed to the gills, might not be very appealing.
I am not expecting a big rush on Christmas Day, Boxing Day, New Year's Eve, New Years Day...
That is unless Boris cancels Christmas and you aren't allowed to be out and about / meeting people.
It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
Was it only two and a bit years ago that BoJo gaily terminated the whip of a score of Brexit rebels?
(BTW, did anyone on the payroll rebel? There were rumours of PPSes considering it. If not, it points to BoJo being in trouble, but not yet. And has anyone found Rishi? It's possible that he fell down between some sofa cushions.)
Kicking 100 MPs out of the party would be interesting, to say the least. Think they'd dump Boris first.
Think the PPSes were "convinced" to vote with the government after the scale of the rebellion became clear in the run up to last night. I heard the chief whip expected 80 to say they would rebel and then 30-40 to succumb to the pressure and row back for a total of 40-50. In the end they got the headcount completely wrong and totally underestimated how poorly these measures would go down with the party. In a free vote I'd expect somewhere around 250-270 Tory MPs to vote against and well over 300 to vote against any further restrictions. That's how angry the party is with Boris.
A significant proportion within that 100 number are swivel-eyed English patriots like Chope, Bridgen and Davies. The Conservative Party would be a far happier and less angry place should Johnson jettison them.
I wish he would, but he won't because he knows these are the types that put him there in the first place.
A significant proportion within that 100 number are swivel-eyed English patriots like Chope, Bridgen and Davies. The Conservative Party would be a far happier and less angry place should Johnson jettison them.
As noted earlier, they all think BoZo is one of them
Off topic, just looking at one of the new look passports (remember this was one of the main "benefits" of Brexit), and can't help noticing that they are not navy blue, but actually black! Even pointed a torch at it to see if it was actually blue: nope it is black. Perhaps we are in mourning for losing our place in the world as a serious country.
It is cross referenced against your referendum vote. The navy ones are reserved for the loyal Brexiteers whilst Remainers get black.
Now found the tab you're obviously quoting. Those are still very low levels, and if you filter for Gauteng the hospital data rise appears to be near flattening this week, same as cases. So unless the deaths figire has got 4 more doubling cycles in it before that happens, it isn't going to match the last wave in south africa, let alone top it.
I haven't looked at the admissions figure but the death figure is seriously laggy, I wouldn't be suprised if admissions is likewise lagged.
Many thanks for sharing the link as I hadn't seen it before, but I genuinely find it very reassuring, corroborating what most (vocal) South African medics are saying.
Whilst admissions data may be laggy, they also offer a beds occupied measure which is likely to be more robust (and confirm admissions is laggy, given a few days ago beds occupied increased by more than admissions). Filtering that for Gauteng the trend really is in line with the flattening cases, and they're a very very long way away from deaths at the level seen before.
Plenty of uncertainty of course, but the canary deepest in the coal mine doesn't look close to dying yet.
SA GP lady still hasn't seen anybody with any serious illness though.....
To be fair ICU as percentage of total admissions is well down on the previous wave so we could genuinely be in a 'with' 'of' situation
The official SA study out yesterday said 29% less than original variant, which is really good news, but her consistent take to the media is nothing at all to see here, she was even laughing about yesterday, saying Boris was just totally over reacting.
Now, I am very much in the not good, but not end of the world, category but I still expect to see significant uptick in hospitalisations etc...if you are triple jabbed and in fit / healthy category, it looks like risk for anything serious is not any worse than Delta + 2 jabs, but it still isn't a bit of cold level for those unvaccinated or vulnerable.
Although they are increasing capacity for boosters, i wonder about demand. How much of the rush this week is so people feel safer for meeting family over Christmas. It might be harder to get people to go and get jabbed between Christmas and New Year.
Other than the fact that people might actually have the time to do it
Yes and no. Although people aren't at work, a lot of people usually spend that time catching up with friends and family. The idea of spending all day in a queue for a booster, especially if it is cold and wet, and they are rather hung over / stuffed to the gills, might not be very appealing.
I am not expecting a big rush on Christmas Day, Boxing Day, New Year's Eve, New Years Day...
That is unless Boris cancels Christmas and you aren't allowed to be out and about / meeting people.
I remember my first jab, during lockdown - a drive to the Madejski Stadium and back counted as an evening out!
But assuming you can bok appointments, people should be able to fit it in round their social lives. A day off is as unlikely to be as busy as a day at work, even if you do have plans.
Off topic, just looking at one of the new look passports (remember this was one of the main "benefits" of Brexit), and can't help noticing that they are not navy blue, but actually black! Even pointed a torch at it to see if it was actually blue: nope it is black. Perhaps we are in mourning for losing our place in the world as a serious country.
It is cross referenced against your referendum vote. The navy ones are reserved for the loyal Brexiteers whilst Remainers get black.
Isn't it now French manufactured ? Probably just trolling us.
Although they are increasing capacity for boosters, i wonder about demand. How much of the rush this week is so people feel safer for meeting family over Christmas. It might be harder to get people to go and get jabbed between Christmas and New Year.
Other than the fact that people might actually have the time to do it
Yes and no. Although people aren't at work, a lot of people usually spend that time catching up with friends and family. The idea of spending all day in a queue for a booster, especially if it is cold and wet, and they are rather hung over / stuffed to the gills, might not be very appealing.
I am not expecting a big rush on Christmas Day, Boxing Day, New Year's Eve, New Years Day...
That is unless Boris cancels Christmas and you aren't allowed to be out and about / meeting people.
I remember my first jab, during lockdown - a drive to the Madejski Stadium and back counted as an evening out!
But assuming you can bok appointments, people should be able to fit it in round their social lives. A day off is as unlikely to be as busy as a day at work, even if you do have plans.
A big bulk of the capacity to get to a million plus a day is walk-ins. And maybe my Christmas social life is busier than others, but normally I have stuff booked every day between Christmas Eve and New Year, as got to see my family, Mrs U family, friends etc etc etc, who are all over the country.
SA GP lady still hasn't seen anybody with any serious illness though.....
To be fair ICU as percentage of total admissions is well down on the previous wave so we could genuinely be in a 'with' 'of' situation
The official SA study out yesterday said 29% less than original variant, which is really good news, but her consistent take to the media is nothing at all to see here, she was even laughing about yesterday, saying Boris was just totally over reacting.
Now, I am very much in the not good, but not end of the world, category but I still expect to see significant uptick in hospitalisations etc...if you are triple jabbed and in fit / healthy category, it looks like risk for anything serious is not any worse than Delta + 2 jabs, but it still isn't a bit of cold level for those unvaccinated or vulnerable.
It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
Have I missed something?
Boris gets a 100-strong rebellion after suggesting vaxports or LFT tests.
What sort of rebellion do we think would happen if he tried anything else. It (any further restrictions) is all over, surely.
Yes, it's all over for any additional restrictions. Boris would find himself quickly deposed and replaced with someone who campaigns on no more restrictions, time to live with COVID.
So 20 months on we finally go the whole hog and just let the thing rip, because so many Tory MPs are cognitively dysfunctional. ICU full. Triage - meaning deciding who doesn't get intensive care. Maybe meaning who doesn't get any medical care at all, and just dies alone in their own home. I pity the people who have to clean up the mess.
Chris yo yo.
What would you do. We are all double/treble vaxxed. What would you do now this minute to "protect the NHS"? Lockdown? Fine. Until when? Force people to moderate their behaviour, not allow "meeting partners". until when?
What would you do. What is Chris BTSOAP's plan, stan.
One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.
There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.
Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.
This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.
The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
Oh it absolutely is relevant.
Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
So what.
The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.
Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
So what? The point is if you wanted to avoid BrexitUK you could just as easily go to inner London or inner Manchester than NYC.
You will find rural, small town Trump voting America just as pro tighter immigration controls as rural, small town Brexit and Tory voting UK
Epping is a hell of a lot closer to inner London than Bum****, Indiana, is to NYC.
Culturally rural Epping Forest is closer to rural and smalltown America than inner London or NYC.
The other half of Epping Forest is more suburban but still not inner city in values either, more swings either way
I don’t recall meeting many gun-toting guys in pickup trucks when I lived round Epping Forest way.
Only because it is against the law here, if it was plenty would do.
If you wanted a part of the UK likely to vote for Trump, rural Epping Forest would be about as close as you could get
It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
Have I missed something?
Boris gets a 100-strong rebellion after suggesting vaxports or LFT tests.
What sort of rebellion do we think would happen if he tried anything else. It (any further restrictions) is all over, surely.
Yes, it's all over for any additional restrictions. Boris would find himself quickly deposed and replaced with someone who campaigns on no more restrictions, time to live with COVID.
So 20 months on we finally go the whole hog and just let the thing rip, because so many Tory MPs are cognitively dysfunctional. ICU full. Triage - meaning deciding who doesn't get intensive care. Maybe meaning who doesn't get any medical care at all, and just dies alone in their own home. I pity the people who have to clean up the mess.
I did wonder what happened to the bloke who walked around my home town with an End is Nigh board on his shoulders.
SA GP lady still hasn't seen anybody with any serious illness though.....
To be fair ICU as percentage of total admissions is well down on the previous wave so we could genuinely be in a 'with' 'of' situation
The official SA study out yesterday said 29% less than original variant, which is really good news, but her consistent take to the media is nothing at all to see here, she was even laughing about yesterday, saying Boris was just totally over reacting.
Now, I am very much in the not good, but not end of the world, category but I still expect to see significant uptick in hospitalisations etc...if you are triple jabbed and in fit / healthy category, it looks like risk for anything serious is not any worse than Delta + 2 jabs, but it still isn't a bit of cold level for those unvaccinated or vulnerable.
You seem absolutely determined to discredit her.
I saw those interviews and she was just saying what she had seen, and giving her professional assessment as chair of the South Africa Medical Association. She wasn't making light of it as you imply – merely stating the view of the SAMA that the UK is overreacting to a virus that is milder than Delta.
Although they are increasing capacity for boosters, i wonder about demand. How much of the rush this week is so people feel safer for meeting family over Christmas. It might be harder to get people to go and get jabbed between Christmas and New Year.
Other than the fact that people might actually have the time to do it
Yes and no. Although people aren't at work, a lot of people usually spend that time catching up with friends and family. The idea of spending all day in a queue for a booster, especially if it is cold and wet, and they are rather hung over / stuffed to the gills, might not be very appealing.
I am not expecting a big rush on Christmas Day, Boxing Day, New Year's Eve, New Years Day...
That is unless Boris cancels Christmas and you aren't allowed to be out and about / meeting people.
I remember my first jab, during lockdown - a drive to the Madejski Stadium and back counted as an evening out!
But assuming you can bok appointments, people should be able to fit it in round their social lives. A day off is as unlikely to be as busy as a day at work, even if you do have plans.
A big bulk of the capacity to get to a million plus a day is walk-ins.
Yes and without the 15 minute observation period it's likely that we'll get over 1m per day. I think we can get 15-16m done by the end of the year. Maybe more. Not by a lot though.
One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.
There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.
Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.
This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.
The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
Oh it absolutely is relevant.
Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
So what.
The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.
Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
So what? The point is if you wanted to avoid BrexitUK you could just as easily go to inner London or inner Manchester than NYC.
You will find rural, small town Trump voting America just as pro tighter immigration controls as rural, small town Brexit and Tory voting UK
Epping is a hell of a lot closer to inner London than Bum****, Indiana, is to NYC.
Culturally rural Epping Forest is closer to rural and smalltown America than inner London or NYC.
The other half of Epping Forest is more suburban but still not inner city in values either, more swings either way
I don’t recall meeting many gun-toting guys in pickup trucks when I lived round Epping Forest way.
Only because it is against the law here, if it was plenty would do.
If you wanted a part of the UK likely to vote for Trump, rural Epping Forest would be about as close as you could get
SA GP lady still hasn't seen anybody with any serious illness though.....
To be fair ICU as percentage of total admissions is well down on the previous wave so we could genuinely be in a 'with' 'of' situation
The official SA study out yesterday said 29% less than original variant, which is really good news, but her consistent take to the media is nothing at all to see here, she was even laughing about yesterday, saying Boris was just totally over reacting.
Now, I am very much in the not good, but not end of the world, category but I still expect to see significant uptick in hospitalisations etc...if you are triple jabbed and in fit / healthy category, it looks like risk for anything serious is not any worse than Delta + 2 jabs, but it still isn't a bit of cold level for those unvaccinated or vulnerable.
Jethro was treble jabbed apparently.
RIP
Yeap, although he had recovered from cancer recently I believe.
One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.
There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.
Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.
This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.
The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
Oh it absolutely is relevant.
Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
So what.
The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.
Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
Less of this lazy stereotyping of Stoke please!
I wonder how many people round these parts have been up Hanley....
Very few I suspect. It would do them good to experience it along with other facets of the Potteries. Mind you, I think I'm too old to repeat the experience. I was more of a 'castle man for a night out in the past.
It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
Was it only two and a bit years ago that BoJo gaily terminated the whip of a score of Brexit rebels?
(BTW, did anyone on the payroll rebel? There were rumours of PPSes considering it. If not, it points to BoJo being in trouble, but not yet. And has anyone found Rishi? It's possible that he fell down between some sofa cushions.)
Kicking 100 MPs out of the party would be interesting, to say the least. Think they'd dump Boris first.
Think the PPSes were "convinced" to vote with the government after the scale of the rebellion became clear in the run up to last night. I heard the chief whip expected 80 to say they would rebel and then 30-40 to succumb to the pressure and row back for a total of 40-50. In the end they got the headcount completely wrong and totally underestimated how poorly these measures would go down with the party. In a free vote I'd expect somewhere around 250-270 Tory MPs to vote against and well over 300 to vote against any further restrictions. That's how angry the party is with Boris.
A significant proportion within that 100 number are swivel-eyed English patriots like Chope, Bridgen and Davies. The Conservative Party would be a far happier and less angry place should Johnson jettison them.
I wish he would, but he won't because he knows these are the types that put him there in the first place.
At some level, they know that Bozza is the only one of their sympathies who has a chance of winning, and that, if push comes to shove, some sort of restrictions may be needed. They just don't want to have to support them.
So the PM and the Research Group wing of the Conservative Party continue their unhappy marriage. Clearly they should part, but neither side wants to take the blame for the resulting fallout.
For crying out loud, nobody is saying that there will be no deaths, as you full well know.
The South Africas are saying that the ratio – the ratio! – of deaths to cases is much lower than Delta. Now, you might think they are talking rubbish, but posts like yours above are just stupid.
It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
Have I missed something?
Boris gets a 100-strong rebellion after suggesting vaxports or LFT tests.
What sort of rebellion do we think would happen if he tried anything else. It (any further restrictions) is all over, surely.
Yes, it's all over for any additional restrictions. Boris would find himself quickly deposed and replaced with someone who campaigns on no more restrictions, time to live with COVID.
So 20 months on we finally go the whole hog and just let the thing rip, because so many Tory MPs are cognitively dysfunctional. ICU full. Triage - meaning deciding who doesn't get intensive care. Maybe meaning who doesn't get any medical care at all, and just dies alone in their own home. I pity the people who have to clean up the mess.
Chris yo yo.
What would you do. We are all double/treble vaxxed. What would you do now this minute to "protect the NHS"? Lockdown? Fine. Until when? Force people to moderate their behaviour, not allow "meeting partners". until when?
What would you do. What is Chris BTSOAP's plan, stan.
As a few of us have been saying all along, if vaccines don't get us 100% of the way what is the alternative? NPIs forever?
Although they are increasing capacity for boosters, i wonder about demand. How much of the rush this week is so people feel safer for meeting family over Christmas. It might be harder to get people to go and get jabbed between Christmas and New Year.
Other than the fact that people might actually have the time to do it
Yes and no. Although people aren't at work, a lot of people usually spend that time catching up with friends and family. The idea of spending all day in a queue for a booster, especially if it is cold and wet, and they are rather hung over / stuffed to the gills, might not be very appealing.
I am not expecting a big rush on Christmas Day, Boxing Day, New Year's Eve, New Years Day...
That is unless Boris cancels Christmas and you aren't allowed to be out and about / meeting people.
I remember my first jab, during lockdown - a drive to the Madejski Stadium and back counted as an evening out!
But assuming you can bok appointments, people should be able to fit it in round their social lives. A day off is as unlikely to be as busy as a day at work, even if you do have plans.
A big bulk of the capacity to get to a million plus a day is walk-ins. And maybe my Christmas social life is busier than others, but normally I have stuff booked every day between Christmas Eve and New Year, as got to see my family, Mrs U family, friends etc etc etc, who are all over the country.
You can get jabbed anywhere in the country. An I suspect you don't socialise 24/7.
In one message, Kawczynski said: “I am looking for a position with a company as non exec director or adviser/consultant. Obviously my passion for Anglo Arab relations [is] something which could help a company with relations in the UK or Middle East. Not sure what remuneration I am looking for but you are such a good negotiator!!! Best wishes Daniel.”...
Where did you find this, Mr Nigel? Is it something doing the rounds in Shropshire by any chance?
Sorry, thought I'd provided a link. Front page of Guardian.
SA GP lady still hasn't seen anybody with any serious illness though.....
To be fair ICU as percentage of total admissions is well down on the previous wave so we could genuinely be in a 'with' 'of' situation
The official SA study out yesterday said 29% less than original variant, which is really good news, but her consistent take to the media is nothing at all to see here, she was even laughing about yesterday, saying Boris was just totally over reacting.
Now, I am very much in the not good, but not end of the world, category but I still expect to see significant uptick in hospitalisations etc...if you are triple jabbed and in fit / healthy category, it looks like risk for anything serious is not any worse than Delta + 2 jabs, but it still isn't a bit of cold level for those unvaccinated or vulnerable.
There will of course be the lag between infection and hospitalisations and then a lag between hospitalisations and deaths. The pattern hasn't changed throughout and I don't think it will.
That's part of the mystique about this damn bug, you think you are lucky and that you are probably out of the woods and yet you might not be...
There are another 20,169,670 eligible people who need boosters by the end of this month.
At 100% uptake, they'd have to do 1.19m a day to hit the target.
At 90% uptake, 1.07m a day.
At 80% uptake, 949k a day.
At 70% uptake, 831k a day.
Minus those who have tested positive within four weeks and are therefore ineligible. At 50k cases a day that must be a fair few. Marginal difference I guess.
I can certainly see way over 100-200k cases per day on the official numbers, so i guess that's another 2 million off the total.
But those who have had Covid without knowing it don't realise that they shouldn't get the booster. So only those who have tested positive know that they are ineligible.
That's what i said....official case numbers of 100-200k i think is certain, especially with everybody lateral flowing left, right and centre.
For crying out loud, nobody is saying that there will be no deaths, as you full well know.
The South Africas are saying that the ratio – the ratio! – of deaths to cases is much lower than Delta. Now, you might think they are talking rubbish, but posts like yours above are just stupid.
SA GP lady still hasn't seen anybody with any serious illness though.....
To be fair ICU as percentage of total admissions is well down on the previous wave so we could genuinely be in a 'with' 'of' situation
Indeed.
The deaths numbers on the link simply don't line up with the daily reports, so perhaps the former is 'with' and the latter 'of'? Just an idea.
Were this the case, then of course you would see a notable rise in 'with' because of the sheer volume of cases nationwide (and, thus, the huge amount of nosocomial cases).
It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
Have I missed something?
Boris gets a 100-strong rebellion after suggesting vaxports or LFT tests.
What sort of rebellion do we think would happen if he tried anything else. It (any further restrictions) is all over, surely.
Yes, it's all over for any additional restrictions. Boris would find himself quickly deposed and replaced with someone who campaigns on no more restrictions, time to live with COVID.
So 20 months on we finally go the whole hog and just let the thing rip, because so many Tory MPs are cognitively dysfunctional. ICU full. Triage - meaning deciding who doesn't get intensive care. Maybe meaning who doesn't get any medical care at all, and just dies alone in their own home. I pity the people who have to clean up the mess.
Chris yo yo.
What would you do. We are all double/treble vaxxed. What would you do now this minute to "protect the NHS"? Lockdown? Fine. Until when? Force people to moderate their behaviour, not allow "meeting partners". until when?
What would you do. What is Chris BTSOAP's plan, stan.
As a few of us have been saying all along, if vaccines don't get us 100% of the way what is the alternative? NPIs forever?
Exactly. Because as Beth Rigby asked at that very first news conference, when will this stop. Never seems to be the answer without another vaccine-like breakthrough.
Yes flatten the curve but you are simply postponing the inevitable as Covid isn't going to give up and go home.
But of course you know this and amazingly, people with brains two or three times the size of yours don't seem to be able to grasp it.
One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.
There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.
Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.
This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.
The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
Oh it absolutely is relevant.
Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
So what.
The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.
Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
So what? The point is if you wanted to avoid BrexitUK you could just as easily go to inner London or inner Manchester than NYC.
You will find rural, small town Trump voting America just as pro tighter immigration controls as rural, small town Brexit and Tory voting UK
Epping is a hell of a lot closer to inner London than Bum****, Indiana, is to NYC.
Culturally rural Epping Forest is closer to rural and smalltown America than inner London or NYC.
The other half of Epping Forest is more suburban but still not inner city in values either, more swings either way
I don’t recall meeting many gun-toting guys in pickup trucks when I lived round Epping Forest way.
Only because it is against the law here, if it was plenty would do.
If you wanted a part of the UK likely to vote for Trump, rural Epping Forest would be about as close as you could get
Ahem.
"again"
When Rangers were in the pomp of their 9 in a row and Mark Hateley had (some) hair, Larkie thought they were just dandy. We shall not see its like again..
Although they are increasing capacity for boosters, i wonder about demand. How much of the rush this week is so people feel safer for meeting family over Christmas. It might be harder to get people to go and get jabbed between Christmas and New Year.
Other than the fact that people might actually have the time to do it
Yes and no. Although people aren't at work, a lot of people usually spend that time catching up with friends and family. The idea of spending all day in a queue for a booster, especially if it is cold and wet, and they are rather hung over / stuffed to the gills, might not be very appealing.
I am not expecting a big rush on Christmas Day, Boxing Day, New Year's Eve, New Years Day...
That is unless Boris cancels Christmas and you aren't allowed to be out and about / meeting people.
I remember my first jab, during lockdown - a drive to the Madejski Stadium and back counted as an evening out!
But assuming you can bok appointments, people should be able to fit it in round their social lives. A day off is as unlikely to be as busy as a day at work, even if you do have plans.
A big bulk of the capacity to get to a million plus a day is walk-ins. And maybe my Christmas social life is busier than others, but normally I have stuff booked every day between Christmas Eve and New Year, as got to see my family, Mrs U family, friends etc etc etc, who are all over the country.
You can get jabbed anywhere in the country. An I suspect you don't socialise 24/7.
Lets see, but I fully expect the likes of Christmas Eve / Day / Boxing Day / New Year Eve / New Years Day to be significantly down.....you don't go to visit family half way across the country and say lovely to see you, I am just off to the walk-in centre to get jabbed.
As for socialising 24/7, at Chez Urquhart we run better parties than the Tories....
It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
Have I missed something?
Boris gets a 100-strong rebellion after suggesting vaxports or LFT tests.
What sort of rebellion do we think would happen if he tried anything else. It (any further restrictions) is all over, surely.
Yes, it's all over for any additional restrictions. Boris would find himself quickly deposed and replaced with someone who campaigns on no more restrictions, time to live with COVID.
So 20 months on we finally go the whole hog and just let the thing rip, because so many Tory MPs are cognitively dysfunctional. ICU full. Triage - meaning deciding who doesn't get intensive care. Maybe meaning who doesn't get any medical care at all, and just dies alone in their own home. I pity the people who have to clean up the mess.
Chris yo yo.
What would you do. We are all double/treble vaxxed. What would you do now this minute to "protect the NHS"? Lockdown? Fine. Until when? Force people to moderate their behaviour, not allow "meeting partners". until when?
What would you do. What is Chris BTSOAP's plan, stan.
As a few of us have been saying all along, if vaccines don't get us 100% of the way what is the alternative? NPIs forever?
I think they have to be precautionary with winter upon us and incomplete data for Omicron. I'd be both very depressed and astonished if restrictions aren't more or less gone by spring with but with monitoring and maybe a cyclic vaccination programme like for flu.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h Just to repeat this. This is what policymakers are dealing with at present - a decisions-to-data lag vastly more problematic than at any previous point in the crisis. Things might be over forty times as bad as you can see in the cases data released today.
How does SA measure their deaths, is it the WHO standard of within 28 days of infection? Of Omicron is as infectious as we think couldn't there be a lot of incidental deaths, it's the same as here, if 1 in 10 people have COVID (as is currently being suggested lol) then 1/10 deaths will simply be put down as COVID deaths despite COVID being incidental to being run over by a bus.
SA GP lady still hasn't seen anybody with any serious illness though.....
To be fair ICU as percentage of total admissions is well down on the previous wave so we could genuinely be in a 'with' 'of' situation
The official SA study out yesterday said 29% less than original variant, which is really good news, but her consistent take to the media is nothing at all to see here, she was even laughing about yesterday, saying Boris was just totally over reacting.
Now, I am very much in the not good, but not end of the world, category but I still expect to see significant uptick in hospitalisations etc...if you are triple jabbed and in fit / healthy category, it looks like risk for anything serious is not any worse than Delta + 2 jabs, but it still isn't a bit of cold level for those unvaccinated or vulnerable.
You seem absolutely determined to discredit her.
I saw those interviews and she was just saying what she had seen, and giving her professional assessment as chair of the South Africa Medical Association. She wasn't making light of it as you imply – merely stating the view of the SAMA that the UK is overreacting to a virus that is milder than Delta.
Give over with the snarky posts and the slurs.
Unfortunately there seems to be an (understandable) pattern of doctors treating their own experience as broad facts rather than just anecdotes. We started with Italian doctors giving paniced interviews about this indiscriminate killer and hospitals full of dying young people - obviously it turned out this disease is massively worse for older vulnerable individuals.
At lease in the recent case, the personal experiences she's sharing do seem to reflect the broad trend of the available data.
For crying out loud, nobody is saying that there will be no deaths, as you full well know.
The South Africas are saying that the ratio – the ratio! – of deaths to cases is much lower than Delta. Now, you might think they are talking rubbish, but posts like yours above are just stupid.
And you an MD? You should know better.
I think Foxy was joking.
It's hard to tell on here anymore and, if he was, it was a shit 'joke'.
Off topic, just looking at one of the new look passports (remember this was one of the main "benefits" of Brexit), and can't help noticing that they are not navy blue, but actually black! Even pointed a torch at it to see if it was actually blue: nope it is black. Perhaps we are in mourning for losing our place in the world as a serious country.
The originals were black - “blue passports” was put about by people to young to have used them.
SA GP lady still hasn't seen anybody with any serious illness though.....
To be fair ICU as percentage of total admissions is well down on the previous wave so we could genuinely be in a 'with' 'of' situation
Indeed.
The deaths numbers on the link simply don't line up with the daily reports, so perhaps the former is 'with' and the latter 'of'? Just an idea.
Were this the case, then of course you would see a notable rise in 'with' because of the sheer volume of cases nationwide (and, this, the huge amount of nosocomial cases).
This is what she said about the Delta wave in July 2021. I think her experience puts her in a good place to distinquish between the Delta & Omicron waves.
It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
Have I missed something?
Boris gets a 100-strong rebellion after suggesting vaxports or LFT tests.
What sort of rebellion do we think would happen if he tried anything else. It (any further restrictions) is all over, surely.
Yes, it's all over for any additional restrictions. Boris would find himself quickly deposed and replaced with someone who campaigns on no more restrictions, time to live with COVID.
So 20 months on we finally go the whole hog and just let the thing rip, because so many Tory MPs are cognitively dysfunctional. ICU full. Triage - meaning deciding who doesn't get intensive care. Maybe meaning who doesn't get any medical care at all, and just dies alone in their own home. I pity the people who have to clean up the mess.
Chris yo yo.
What would you do. We are all double/treble vaxxed. What would you do now this minute to "protect the NHS"? Lockdown? Fine. Until when? Force people to moderate their behaviour, not allow "meeting partners". until when?
What would you do. What is Chris BTSOAP's plan, stan.
As a few of us have been saying all along, if vaccines don't get us 100% of the way what is the alternative? NPIs forever?
I think they have to be precautionary with winter upon us and incomplete data for Omicron. I'd be both very depressed and astonished if restrictions aren't more or less gone by spring with but with monitoring and maybe a cyclic vaccination programme like for flu.
Then what about next year when we get Omega? Another winter lockdown? How is the cycle broken?
It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
Have I missed something?
Boris gets a 100-strong rebellion after suggesting vaxports or LFT tests.
What sort of rebellion do we think would happen if he tried anything else. It (any further restrictions) is all over, surely.
Yes, it's all over for any additional restrictions. Boris would find himself quickly deposed and replaced with someone who campaigns on no more restrictions, time to live with COVID.
So 20 months on we finally go the whole hog and just let the thing rip, because so many Tory MPs are cognitively dysfunctional. ICU full. Triage - meaning deciding who doesn't get intensive care. Maybe meaning who doesn't get any medical care at all, and just dies alone in their own home. I pity the people who have to clean up the mess.
Chris yo yo.
What would you do. We are all double/treble vaxxed. What would you do now this minute to "protect the NHS"? Lockdown? Fine. Until when? Force people to moderate their behaviour, not allow "meeting partners". until when?
What would you do. What is Chris BTSOAP's plan, stan.
As a few of us have been saying all along, if vaccines don't get us 100% of the way what is the alternative? NPIs forever?
I think they have to be precautionary with winter upon us and incomplete data for Omicron. I'd be both very depressed and astonished if restrictions aren't more or less gone by spring with but with monitoring and maybe a cyclic vaccination programme like for flu.
I think…I think…
I think you are right…but again, nobody has really spelled it out clearly.
Instead we get solemn briefings that one person has died, or there are a dozen people in hospital, or irrelevant and - by the sounds of it - erroneous infection estimates.
The 'staggering number' of projected cases comes from the estimated less than 2 day doubling time, doesn't it?
By my calculations, if we currently have 10,000 Omicron cases a day, a continuation of the 2 day doubling time as assumed will mean we'll have over 300 million cases a day in a month.
Very worrying indeed.
Which of course is fantasy, being 6 times the population. But what might not be fantasy is it gets a few doubles in before the growth shallows out and peaks. That could be a big number. Then the small % of these who require hospital x that big number could be a number which overwhelms the health service. This is the heart of the matter - just like it was for the previous waves. So a similar risk calc is required but factoring in a changed politics, a changed public, and changed govt finances.
I suspect concern about absenteeism through sickness is also a major factor given an NHS that was in (slow) recovery mode before Omicron.
Yep, increased demand meets reduced supply, with the virus causing both. It's a worry. Bottom line is, I don't see what the government has to gain from fabricating a threat that isn't there. We were riding the Delta exit wave to a resumption of normality quite soon and they have no incentive, as far as I can see, to claim that Omicron is a rock in the pond if it most likely isn't.
I don’t think the government is fabricating per se.
I think the scientists have said, this thing spreads like a mother-fucker, and if it is as serious as Delta it is going to collapse the NHS.
…But we can’t be sure.
At the same time Boris has been looking for a dead cat to deflect from his personal scandals, and he thinks he can kill two birds with one stone (shades of the O-Patz debacle).
To be honest it feels like utter chaos in Number 10. No strategy, just lots of noise and panic. The booster drive is about the only thing that makes sense.
I don't suppose Johnson has a clue. His head will be where it usually is. But there are the likes of Gove and Javid in the boiler room and I wouldn't expect them to be going along with something that's all bollocks.
Thing is, I find myself at odds with what I can see is the prevailing PB vibe on this. Specifically, that (i) a Lockdown is coming and (ii) It will be imposed unnecessarily.
I think the dead opposite. I think (i) a Lockdown is NOT coming but (ii) If it is, it WILL be necessary.
And I submit that my take is the more rational and evidence based.
Off topic, just looking at one of the new look passports (remember this was one of the main "benefits" of Brexit), and can't help noticing that they are not navy blue, but actually black! Even pointed a torch at it to see if it was actually blue: nope it is black. Perhaps we are in mourning for losing our place in the world as a serious country.
How very dare you!
The black identifies as blue and you are being blackophobic in even daring to suggest otherwise.
Hehe. Of course it is true to say that Boris Johnson identifies as a leader.
One of the reasons I’m going to New York is that, quite simply, this country has been less welcome to me since 2016.
There is a set of the population - I don’t know what percentage - that won’t be happy until they see forced repatriation of anyone who “speaks funny”.
Patel, aided and abetted by an out-of-control Home Office, thinks she is appealing to them. The irony is they are low information knuckle draggers who won’t even be aware of this new proposal and probably want Patel forcibly repatriated anyway.
This is all part of the Brexit dividend.
Go to Trump voting Mississippi or Alabama or West Virginia or even rural New York state and you would find it a totally different story. London however you will find culturally similar to New York city.
The division is less UK v New York but rural and small town v urban with the suburbs and commuter belt in between. That is now largely true across the western world
None of this is in any way relevant to my post.
Oh it absolutely is relevant.
Go to rural New York one weekend once you get to NYC and you would find attitudes little different to those you would find here in rural Norfolk or Stoke or rural Essex
So what.
The point I was actually making is that, regrettably, the U.K. has unleashed its inner “Stoke” in a way that turns me and other migrants off.
Good luck staffing and indeed paying for your public services.
So what? The point is if you wanted to avoid BrexitUK you could just as easily go to inner London or inner Manchester than NYC.
You will find rural, small town Trump voting America just as pro tighter immigration controls as rural, small town Brexit and Tory voting UK
Epping is a hell of a lot closer to inner London than Bum****, Indiana, is to NYC.
Culturally rural Epping Forest is closer to rural and smalltown America than inner London or NYC.
The other half of Epping Forest is more suburban but still not inner city in values either, more swings either way
I don’t recall meeting many gun-toting guys in pickup trucks when I lived round Epping Forest way.
Only because it is against the law here, if it was plenty would do.
If you wanted a part of the UK likely to vote for Trump, rural Epping Forest would be about as close as you could get
The 'staggering number' of projected cases comes from the estimated less than 2 day doubling time, doesn't it?
By my calculations, if we currently have 10,000 Omicron cases a day, a continuation of the 2 day doubling time as assumed will mean we'll have over 300 million cases a day in a month.
Very worrying indeed.
Which of course is fantasy, being 6 times the population. But what might not be fantasy is it gets a few doubles in before the growth shallows out and peaks. That could be a big number. Then the small % of these who require hospital x that big number could be a number which overwhelms the health service. This is the heart of the matter - just like it was for the previous waves. So a similar risk calc is required but factoring in a changed politics, a changed public, and changed govt finances.
I suspect concern about absenteeism through sickness is also a major factor given an NHS that was in (slow) recovery mode before Omicron.
Yep, increased demand meets reduced supply, with the virus causing both. It's a worry. Bottom line is, I don't see what the government has to gain from fabricating a threat that isn't there. We were riding the Delta exit wave to a resumption of normality quite soon and they have no incentive, as far as I can see, to claim that Omicron is a rock in the pond if it most likely isn't.
I don’t think the government is fabricating per se.
I think the scientists have said, this thing spreads like a mother-fucker, and if it is as serious as Delta it is going to collapse the NHS.
…But we can’t be sure.
At the same time Boris has been looking for a dead cat to deflect from his personal scandals, and he thinks he can kill two birds with one stone (shades of the O-Patz debacle).
To be honest it feels like utter chaos in Number 10. No strategy, just lots of noise and panic. The booster drive is about the only thing that makes sense.
I don't suppose Johnson has a clue. His head will be where it usually is. But there are the likes of Gove and Javid in the boiler room and I wouldn't expect them to be going along with something that's all bollocks.
Thing is, I find myself at odds with what I can see is the prevailing PB vibe on this. Specifically, that (i) a Lockdown is coming and (ii) It will be imposed unnecessarily.
I think the dead opposite. I think (i) a Lockdown is NOT coming but (ii) If it is, it WILL be necessary.
And I submit that my take is the more rational and evidence based.
My suspicion is that we won't get a lockdown because it's already too late to start one
How does SA measure their deaths, is it the WHO standard of within 28 days of infection? Of Omicron is as infectious as we think couldn't there be a lot of incidental deaths, it's the same as here, if 1 in 10 people have COVID (as is currently being suggested lol) then 1/10 deaths will simply be put down as COVID deaths despite COVID being incidental to being run over by a bus.
Supplementary question: when calculating mortality rates and comparing with earlier variants, how do they adjust for the fact omicron cases grew quicker ? If you say "at this point in the delta wave, deaths were x% of cases" that doesn't tell you very much if the case doubling time for omicron is significantly shorter.
SA GP lady still hasn't seen anybody with any serious illness though.....
To be fair ICU as percentage of total admissions is well down on the previous wave so we could genuinely be in a 'with' 'of' situation
Indeed.
The deaths numbers on the link simply don't line up with the daily reports, so perhaps the former is 'with' and the latter 'of'? Just an idea.
Were this the case, then of course you would see a notable rise in 'with' because of the sheer volume of cases nationwide (and, this, the huge amount of nosocomial cases).
This is what she said about the Delta wave in July 2021. I think her experience puts her in a good place to distinquish between the Delta & Omicron waves.
It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
Have I missed something?
Boris gets a 100-strong rebellion after suggesting vaxports or LFT tests.
What sort of rebellion do we think would happen if he tried anything else. It (any further restrictions) is all over, surely.
Yes, it's all over for any additional restrictions. Boris would find himself quickly deposed and replaced with someone who campaigns on no more restrictions, time to live with COVID.
So 20 months on we finally go the whole hog and just let the thing rip, because so many Tory MPs are cognitively dysfunctional. ICU full. Triage - meaning deciding who doesn't get intensive care. Maybe meaning who doesn't get any medical care at all, and just dies alone in their own home. I pity the people who have to clean up the mess.
Chris yo yo.
What would you do. We are all double/treble vaxxed. What would you do now this minute to "protect the NHS"? Lockdown? Fine. Until when? Force people to moderate their behaviour, not allow "meeting partners". until when?
What would you do. What is Chris BTSOAP's plan, stan.
As a few of us have been saying all along, if vaccines don't get us 100% of the way what is the alternative? NPIs forever?
I think they have to be precautionary with winter upon us and incomplete data for Omicron. I'd be both very depressed and astonished if restrictions aren't more or less gone by spring with but with monitoring and maybe a cyclic vaccination programme like for flu.
Then what about next year when we get Omega? Another winter lockdown? How is the cycle broken?
It would be like banning driving in bad weather. It would save lives but is no way for society to operate.
She says Royal Mail has been brilliant during the pandemic and they will "allow us to more than double our delivery capacity from Friday from 400,000 home delivered to 900,000".
There are other discussions going on too to increase capacity further says Dr Harries, who was talking to MPs on the transport select committee when she made the announcement.
Alliance pharmacies have had 6.4million tests sent to them to distribute in the community, where people need them.
-------
China profiting very nicely thank you....but won't somebody think of the turtles, all that plastic.
The LFTs I ordered yesterday arrived this morning - by Royal Mail.
It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
Have I missed something?
Boris gets a 100-strong rebellion after suggesting vaxports or LFT tests.
What sort of rebellion do we think would happen if he tried anything else. It (any further restrictions) is all over, surely.
Yes, it's all over for any additional restrictions. Boris would find himself quickly deposed and replaced with someone who campaigns on no more restrictions, time to live with COVID.
So 20 months on we finally go the whole hog and just let the thing rip, because so many Tory MPs are cognitively dysfunctional. ICU full. Triage - meaning deciding who doesn't get intensive care. Maybe meaning who doesn't get any medical care at all, and just dies alone in their own home. I pity the people who have to clean up the mess.
Chris yo yo.
What would you do. We are all double/treble vaxxed. What would you do now this minute to "protect the NHS"? Lockdown? Fine. Until when? Force people to moderate their behaviour, not allow "meeting partners". until when?
What would you do. What is Chris BTSOAP's plan, stan.
As a few of us have been saying all along, if vaccines don't get us 100% of the way what is the alternative? NPIs forever?
I think they have to be precautionary with winter upon us and incomplete data for Omicron. I'd be both very depressed and astonished if restrictions aren't more or less gone by spring with but with monitoring and maybe a cyclic vaccination programme like for flu.
Then what about next year when we get Omega? Another winter lockdown? How is the cycle broken?
It would be like banning driving in bad weather. It would save lives but is no way for society to operate.
SA GP lady still hasn't seen anybody with any serious illness though.....
To be fair ICU as percentage of total admissions is well down on the previous wave so we could genuinely be in a 'with' 'of' situation
Indeed.
The deaths numbers on the link simply don't line up with the daily reports, so perhaps the former is 'with' and the latter 'of'? Just an idea.
Were this the case, then of course you would see a notable rise in 'with' because of the sheer volume of cases nationwide (and, this, the huge amount of nosocomial cases).
This is what she said about the Delta wave in July 2021. I think her experience puts her in a good place to distinquish between the Delta & Omicron waves.
I wonder if the PB Covid Experts rubbished her then? Quite possibly they did.
An incredible contrast, no room in hospitals, trying to treat patients at home with oxygen because there was nowhere else to go,& "The extreme working patterns and the mental pressures that come with it"
For crying out loud, nobody is saying that there will be no deaths, as you full well know.
The South Africas are saying that the ratio – the ratio! – of deaths to cases is much lower than Delta. Now, you might think they are talking rubbish, but posts like yours above are just stupid.
And you an MD? You should know better.
People do seem to be determined to ignore what various people in SA are saying: not just doctors but research scientists. I can understand this - we don't want to jinx it and we don't want to encourage complacency. A milder virus - even much milder - can cause a lot of problems if it rips through very rapidly.
But the strawmen are silly. People are dying of Omicron, therefore this variant can't be milder is the equivalent of the old chestnut "they say crime is falling, so how come my nan was mugged last week".
So today we have a study showing Omicron grows 10x slower than Delta in lung tissue, and excess death data from South Africa with Gauteng below the national average.
On the other hand, the government has a model and it looks scary.
How does SA measure their deaths, is it the WHO standard of within 28 days of infection? Of Omicron is as infectious as we think couldn't there be a lot of incidental deaths, it's the same as here, if 1 in 10 people have COVID (as is currently being suggested lol) then 1/10 deaths will simply be put down as COVID deaths despite COVID being incidental to being run over by a bus.
Supplementary question: when calculating mortality rates and comparing with earlier variants, how do they adjust for the fact omicron cases grew quicker ? If you say "at this point in the delta wave, deaths were x% of cases" that doesn't tell you very much if the case doubling time for omicron is significantly shorter.
Yes, you are correct, the faster rate of increase would give the impression of a smaller percentage of deaths, for a while.
So today we have a study showing Omicron grows 10x slower than Delta in lung tissue, and excess death data from South Africa with Gauteng below the national average.
On the other hand, the government has a model and it looks scary.
Jenny “We’re too sensible for masks” Harries is saying that Omicron is the worst crisis of the pandemic so far.
Once again, is there data I am not seeing? I would like have it communicated.
For crying out loud, nobody is saying that there will be no deaths, as you full well know.
The South Africas are saying that the ratio – the ratio! – of deaths to cases is much lower than Delta. Now, you might think they are talking rubbish, but posts like yours above are just stupid.
And you an MD? You should know better.
People do seem to be determined to ignore what various people in SA are saying: not just doctors but research scientists. I can understand this - we don't want to jinx it and we don't want to encourage complacency. A milder virus - even much milder - can cause a lot of problems if it rips through very rapidly.
But the strawmen are silly. People are dying of Omicron, therefore this variant can't be milder is the equivalent of the old chestnut "they say crime is falling, so how come my nan was mugged last week".
Well yes, quite.
I remember having a chat with a mate about the odds of it raining on one's morning bike commute in London (pretty long odds on any given day). He resolved to switch to cycling.
Then, a few weeks later, he got caught in a downpour: "I knew you were wrong about those odds!" he said.
SA GP lady still hasn't seen anybody with any serious illness though.....
To be fair ICU as percentage of total admissions is well down on the previous wave so we could genuinely be in a 'with' 'of' situation
Indeed.
The deaths numbers on the link simply don't line up with the daily reports, so perhaps the former is 'with' and the latter 'of'? Just an idea.
Were this the case, then of course you would see a notable rise in 'with' because of the sheer volume of cases nationwide (and, this, the huge amount of nosocomial cases).
This is what she said about the Delta wave in July 2021. I think her experience puts her in a good place to distinquish between the Delta & Omicron waves.
I wonder if the PB Covid Experts rubbished her then? Quite possibly they did.
An incredible contrast, no room in hospitals, trying to treat patients at home with oxygen because there was nowhere else to go,& "The extreme working patterns and the mental pressures that come with it"
Does she look stressed now?
This is the other thing. Usually in any wave the people who are most outspoken about how bad things are, and the pressures on the system, are front line medics. This time it's the front line medics talking about relative mildness.
This Omicron SA data is like a 2017 pre-election MRP prediction. It seems odd and too good to be true because it's so unlike anything we've heard since Feb 2020. It may still turn out to be good to be true, or very SA specific, but merits watching.
Either South Africa is so different that what happens there can't read across to here, or we may be OK.
Every week we can say this is a win.
I think we can definitely say 'milder' now, and if excess deaths aren't just being laggy and all this still holds true by Christmas, I think we'll start being able to downward revise the UK worst case very significantly and Jan 5th will be off.
Either South Africa is so different that what happens there can't read across to here, or we may be OK.
Every week we can say this is a win.
I think we can definitely say 'milder' now, and if excess deaths aren't just being laggy and all this still holds true by Christmas, I think we'll start being able to downward revise the UK worst case very significantly and Jan 5th will be off.
As long as we all agree to say we've forgotten about quizgate.
For crying out loud, nobody is saying that there will be no deaths, as you full well know.
The South Africas are saying that the ratio – the ratio! – of deaths to cases is much lower than Delta. Now, you might think they are talking rubbish, but posts like yours above are just stupid.
And you an MD? You should know better.
People do seem to be determined to ignore what various people in SA are saying: not just doctors but research scientists. I can understand this - we don't want to jinx it and we don't want to encourage complacency. A milder virus - even much milder - can cause a lot of problems if it rips through very rapidly.
But the strawmen are silly. People are dying of Omicron, therefore this variant can't be milder is the equivalent of the old chestnut "they say crime is falling, so how come my nan was mugged last week".
The issue is that the people who want to ignore the SA data are the same people who have continually pushed for lockdowns. There's a big element of crossover there.
It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
Have I missed something?
Boris gets a 100-strong rebellion after suggesting vaxports or LFT tests.
What sort of rebellion do we think would happen if he tried anything else. It (any further restrictions) is all over, surely.
Yes, it's all over for any additional restrictions. Boris would find himself quickly deposed and replaced with someone who campaigns on no more restrictions, time to live with COVID.
Ie picking a leader who panders and is prepared to deny reality to suit. I don't think that would happen although of course there is recent precedent in July 2019. The big difference - and why I find it unlikely - is that Get Brexit Done was nationally popular. Let Covid Screw The NHS wouldn't be.
I don't suppose Johnson has a clue. His head will be where it usually is. But there are the likes of Gove and Javid in the boiler room and I wouldn't expect them to be going along with something that's all bollocks.
Thing is, I find myself at odds with what I can see is the prevailing PB vibe on this. Specifically, that (i) a Lockdown is coming and (ii) It will be imposed unnecessarily.
I think the dead opposite. I think (i) a Lockdown is NOT coming but (ii) If it is, it WILL be necessary.
And I submit that my take is the more rational and evidence based.
b) is obviously correct. Why don't people on here see it? I think it must be wishful thinking. I remember after the first lockdown, Blair said the same. We can't have another one, we can't afford it. This was obviously untrue... if we really need to, we can have another lockdown.
a) inclined to agree, but less sure. I'm struggling to get a handle on omicron. The people I've come to trust over the pandemic aren't all telling the same story, and there still seems a lot of uncertainty around how severe it is.
So can we make this a multi-dimensional Left/Right wing, Leave/Remain matrix.
I am a Remainer (as was) and centre right and am on the no more lockdowns fewer restrictions end of the spectrum
*everyone in the room, together and supportively, says: Hello centre-right Remainer...*
Those on the left are more comfortable with lockdowns, want them, even (not want @RP, but would be very happy to accept), while those on the right don't.
No idea where that leaves Brexit views, that said.
Comments
BBC News - Confusion as people flee quarantine hotels
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59670486
No confusion, people have just decided to break the rules and leave despite being told not to by the government and security staff at the hotels.
https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1471130278999511041
Daily statistical releases from the same website show deaths completely flat - yesterday's figure down on the week before -
https://www.nicd.ac.za/media/alertss
Now found the tab you're obviously quoting. Those are still very low levels, and if you filter for Gauteng the hospital data rise appears to be near flattening this week, same as cases. So unless the deaths figire has got 4 more doubling cycles in it before that happens, it isn't going to match the last wave in south africa, let alone top it.
Boris gets a 100-strong rebellion after suggesting vaxports or LFT tests.
What sort of rebellion do we think would happen if he tried anything else. It (any further restrictions) is all over, surely.
I think the scientists have said, this thing spreads like a mother-fucker, and if it is as serious as Delta it is going to collapse the NHS.
…But we can’t be sure.
At the same time Boris has been looking for a dead cat to deflect from his personal scandals, and he thinks he can kill two birds with one stone (shades of the O-Patz debacle).
To be honest it feels like utter chaos in Number 10. No strategy, just lots of noise and panic. The booster drive is about the only thing that makes sense.
(BTW, did anyone on the payroll rebel? There were rumours of PPSes considering it. If not, it points to BoJo being in trouble, but not yet. And has anyone found Rishi? It's possible that he fell down between some sofa cushions.)
https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1471133466964209666
There are other discussions going on too to increase capacity further says Dr Harries, who was talking to MPs on the transport select committee when she made the announcement.
Alliance pharmacies have had 6.4million tests sent to them to distribute in the community, where people need them.
-------
China profiting very nicely thank you....but won't somebody think of the turtles, all that plastic.
Think the PPSes were "convinced" to vote with the government after the scale of the rebellion became clear in the run up to last night. I heard the chief whip expected 80 to say they would rebel and then 30-40 to succumb to the pressure and row back for a total of 40-50. In the end they got the headcount completely wrong and totally underestimated how poorly these measures would go down with the party. In a free vote I'd expect somewhere around 250-270 Tory MPs to vote against and well over 300 to vote against any further restrictions. That's how angry the party is with Boris.
Front page of Guardian.
The black identifies as blue and you are being blackophobic in even daring to suggest otherwise.
There's a motivation to get the booster *before* Christmas (even if it won't provide a large benefit until the start of January), schools will be shut, people will increasingly be on leave from work, some large new vaccination facilities are being opened.
The doubt in my mind is to what extent people will prefer to queue in the booking system (and stick to an appointment for January, say) as compared to queuing in person for a walk-in booster.
My wife's now boostered after 45 minutes in a queue, so she'll be cancelling the appointment she had made for next week.
I think with distancing and masks and ventilation that wasn't true when Delta was the main event, but risk reward balance has changed.
England resting their best (from 1st test) and fastest bowler they have in Australia where you need a real quick bowler..madness.
You had fairly new vaccine technology in these MRNA vaccines and they were just being cautious in that if you were going to have anaphylaxis or a major reaction it would be very likely within 15 mins of administering it.
We did well over 30,000 vaccinations during 1st and 2nd doses at our hospital hub and we had no major reactions that I can recall.
+28% today.
A decent start.
I am not expecting a big rush on Christmas Day, Boxing Day, New Year's Eve, New Years Day...
That is unless Boris cancels Christmas and you aren't allowed to be out and about / meeting people.
Whilst admissions data may be laggy, they also offer a beds occupied measure which is likely to be more robust (and confirm admissions is laggy, given a few days ago beds occupied increased by more than admissions). Filtering that for Gauteng the trend really is in line with the flattening cases, and they're a very very long way away from deaths at the level seen before.
Plenty of uncertainty of course, but the canary deepest in the coal mine doesn't look close to dying yet.
Now, I am very much in the not good, but not end of the world, category but I still expect to see significant uptick in hospitalisations etc...if you are triple jabbed and in fit / healthy category, it looks like risk for anything serious is not any worse than Delta + 2 jabs, but it still isn't a bit of cold level for those unvaccinated or vulnerable.
But assuming you can bok appointments, people should be able to fit it in round their social lives. A day off is as unlikely to be as busy as a day at work, even if you do have plans.
Probably just trolling us.
RIP
What would you do. We are all double/treble vaxxed. What would you do now this minute to "protect the NHS"? Lockdown? Fine. Until when? Force people to moderate their behaviour, not allow "meeting partners". until when?
What would you do. What is Chris BTSOAP's plan, stan.
I saw those interviews and she was just saying what she had seen, and giving her professional assessment as chair of the South Africa Medical Association. She wasn't making light of it as you imply – merely stating the view of the SAMA that the UK is overreacting to a virus that is milder than Delta.
Give over with the snarky posts and the slurs.
So the PM and the Research Group wing of the Conservative Party continue their unhappy marriage. Clearly they should part, but neither side wants to take the blame for the resulting fallout.
For crying out loud, nobody is saying that there will be no deaths, as you full well know.
The South Africas are saying that the ratio – the ratio! – of deaths to cases is much lower than Delta. Now, you might think they are talking rubbish, but posts like yours above are just stupid.
And you an MD? You should know better.
That's part of the mystique about this damn bug, you think you are lucky and that you are probably out of the woods and yet you might not be...
The deaths numbers on the link simply don't line up with the daily reports, so perhaps the former is 'with' and the latter 'of'? Just an idea.
Were this the case, then of course you would see a notable rise in 'with' because of the sheer volume of cases nationwide (and, thus, the huge amount of nosocomial cases).
Yes flatten the curve but you are simply postponing the inevitable as Covid isn't going to give up and go home.
But of course you know this and amazingly, people with brains two or three times the size of yours don't seem to be able to grasp it.
As for socialising 24/7, at Chez Urquhart we run better parties than the Tories....
@andrew_lilico
·
1h
Just to repeat this. This is what policymakers are dealing with at present - a decisions-to-data lag vastly more problematic than at any previous point in the crisis. Things might be over forty times as bad as you can see in the cases data released today.
At lease in the recent case, the personal experiences she's sharing do seem to reflect the broad trend of the available data.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-south-africas-healthcare-workers-struggle-under-pressure-of-third-wave-12363905
I think you are right…but again, nobody has really spelled it out clearly.
Instead we get solemn briefings that one person has died, or there are a dozen people in hospital, or irrelevant and - by the sounds of it - erroneous infection estimates.
https://twitter.com/tomtom_m/status/1471137200121257994?s=20
Either South Africa is so different that what happens there can't read across to here, or we may be OK.
Thing is, I find myself at odds with what I can see is the prevailing PB vibe on this. Specifically, that (i) a Lockdown is coming and (ii) It will be imposed unnecessarily.
I think the dead opposite. I think (i) a Lockdown is NOT coming but (ii) If it is, it WILL be necessary.
And I submit that my take is the more rational and evidence based.
I wonder if the PB Covid Experts rubbished her then? Quite possibly they did.
Does she look stressed now?
But the strawmen are silly. People are dying of Omicron, therefore this variant can't be milder is the equivalent of the old chestnut "they say crime is falling, so how come my nan was mugged last week".
On the other hand, the government has a model and it looks scary.
Once again, is there data I am not seeing? I would like have it communicated.
I remember having a chat with a mate about the odds of it raining on one's morning bike commute in London (pretty long odds on any given day). He resolved to switch to cycling.
Then, a few weeks later, he got caught in a downpour: "I knew you were wrong about those odds!" he said.
This Omicron SA data is like a 2017 pre-election MRP prediction. It seems odd and too good to be true because it's so unlike anything we've heard since Feb 2020. It may still turn out to be good to be true, or very SA specific, but merits watching.
I think we can definitely say 'milder' now, and if excess deaths aren't just being laggy and all this still holds true by Christmas, I think we'll start being able to downward revise the UK worst case very significantly and Jan 5th will be off.
I think it must be wishful thinking. I remember after the first lockdown, Blair said the same. We can't have another one, we can't afford it. This was obviously untrue... if we really need to, we can have another lockdown.
a) inclined to agree, but less sure. I'm struggling to get a handle on omicron. The people I've come to trust over the pandemic aren't all telling the same story, and there still seems a lot of uncertainty around how severe it is.
I am a Remainer (as was) and centre right and am on the no more lockdowns fewer restrictions end of the spectrum
*everyone in the room, together and supportively, says: Hello centre-right Remainer...*
Those on the left are more comfortable with lockdowns, want them, even (not want @RP, but would be very happy to accept), while those on the right don't.
No idea where that leaves Brexit views, that said.