I hear the anti-covid crowd on PB rapidly back-pedalling. We are in trouble.
@Charles is the only muppet still defending BoJo, he knows who his paymaster is
Care to post evidence of that?
And pointing out you made a pathetic attack on a prerecorded message vs a live broadcast doesn’t could as a defence.
As I have pointed out on many occasions I have little time for him as an individual and let alone a PM. Although he can be mildly diverting company in the pub once in a while
For all Boris Johnson's dishevelment he held the line against imposing new social restrictions, probably against the advice of the CMO and CSO.
100% Dr Doom asked for Boris to cancel Christmas and / or New Year.
He also said 200k cases per day after the July unlockdown. He has no credibility.
Only a million a day this time.....100k a day wasn't scary enough.
Most of the public aren’t scared of covid anymore. They have seen first hand that it’s mild or moderate in most people. There just isn’t the unbounded terror of it that there was in early 2020. What people are fearful of is isolation, and passing it on to vulnerable people whom they will be socialising with over Christmas. The fear of isolation and contagion is what has driven the party cancellations, not the fear of the virus itself. That’s a big shift since 2020.
I hear the anti-covid crowd on PB rapidly back-pedalling. We are in trouble.
@Charles is the only muppet still defending BoJo, he knows who his paymaster is
Care to post evidence of that?
And pointing out you made a pathetic attack on a prerecorded message vs a live broadcast doesn’t could as a defence.
As I have pointed out on many occasions I have little time for him as an individual and let alone a PM. Although he can be mildly diverting company in the pub once in a while
The real question, Charles, is whether he ducks off to the loo when it's his round?
@Philip_Thompson please withdraw the accusation that @Farooq, @RochdalePioneers have bullied anyone. They have not, they've just questioned your views that you consider death a worthy outcome.
Please withdraw your allegation that I have taken money to defend Boris Johnson. I have not, I’ve just questioned your views on many occasions.
For all Boris Johnson's dishevelment he held the line against imposing new social restrictions, probably against the advice of the CMO and CSO.
100% Dr Doom asked for Boris to cancel Christmas and / or New Year.
He also said 200k cases per day after the July unlockdown. He has no credibility.
Only a million a day this time.....100k a day wasn't scary enough.
Most of the public aren’t scared of covid anymore. They have seen first hand that it’s mild or moderate in most people. There just isn’t the unbounded terror of it that there was in early 2020. What people are fearful of is isolation, and passing it on to vulnerable people whom they will be socialising with over Christmas. The fear of isolation and contagion is what has driven the party cancellations, not the fear of the virus itself. That’s a big shift since 2020.
I remember when we were going to destroy Europe on this, so far ahead they said. And yet we've ended up in the same position. Seems all so petty now arguing about EU policy or not when it seems to have made little difference in the end
No you are wrong there. The whole point of what we did with early approval, buying multiple vaccines, and stretching the dosing intervals was to go fast. We did go fast. It was a fundamentally different goal from the EU, speed versus volume basically. It saved a lot of lives. So on that aspect you are in error.
Now where we went wrong is with step two. What do you do for the long term? What is the UK's steady state of covid vaccination? It wasn't scaled up to allow very rapid vaccination of the whole population, it was initially focused on purely boosting the vulnerable. That would probably have been fine with Alpha, and maybe even just about tenable with Delta, but Omicron has completley blown that plan out of the water. Omicron has almost sent us back to the start where speed matters above all once again.
Yes, someone posted the French vaccine stats a couple of weeks ago which showed millions of over 50s with zero doses but also millions of kids with two vs ours where there's a few hundred thousand over 50s with zero doses and just a million or so kids done. It flatters their programme a lot, our coverage is significantly better because older people matter a lot, lot more for immunisation than kids. Even with all they've done their first dose coverage is 52m vs 51m for the UK which is 80% vs 76% population coverage with France doing significant numbers of under 25s compared to us (maybe an extra 2m) but leaving well over a million oldies with no vaccine protection.
Again, the whole thing has been turned into a simple dick waving contest and yes, the numbers matter, however, I'd rather have 99% of over 60s done and 70% of everyone else than 90% of everyone.
Florence has updated her chart to include boosters (Dose de Rappel): [Translated]: The booster dose appears to restore vaccine efficacy against symptomatic infection. That would be good news! It is time to distribute these doses as a priority to the most vulnerable in France
New restrictions are likely "in the next few weeks" in Wales to deal with the new Omicron variant, the health minister has said. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-59628666
Nobody wants to hear it, but start of Jan we are all getting increased restrictions.
You are probably right about January, but to be fair you were confidently predicting restrictions over Christmas, which you are now quietly backing away from.
Did I? I don't think I did, not seriously.....I am fairly sure I said SAGE would advocate for them, but Boris wouldn't agree for political reasons. There is no way he can cancel Christmas, his party will sack him instantly.
What I did say lockdown coming afterward, which I don't think we will get, it will be phrased as enhanced restrictions. Now if that means the boozer is closed, it might well be. That seems to be the sort of measures SAGE are calling for.
I agree that’s possible. But… closing pubs means mass furloughing again and everyone simply having house gatherings instead. Because January is a generally quiet month due to people being short of cash general mixing is low anyway, he might just strengthen WFH guidance to avoid furlough.
Odd story. I haven't heard of anyone bitten by a mouse before.
But if Covid did get into the human population, how might it have escaped from the Wuhan lab? One possible answer lies in Taiwan, where a scientist working on Covid experiments at the Academia Sinica in Taipei has tested positive for the Delta variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus after being bitten by a laboratory mouse on 19 November. No community transmission of Covid has been recorded in Taiwan for a month. The same worker had previously been bitten by a mouse at the laboratory a month earlier, but on that occasion tested negative. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/does-taiwan-hold-the-answer-to-the-lab-leak-theory-
I suspect if you pick up a mouse with the intent to subject it to medical experiments, it gets a bit pissed off
For all Boris Johnson's dishevelment he held the line against imposing new social restrictions, probably against the advice of the CMO and CSO.
100% Dr Doom asked for Boris to cancel Christmas and / or New Year.
Trouble is, Boris was the same last year then tightened restrictions at the last minute. Let's hope he has got it right this time. If we are to face Christmas limits, tell us now.
What is he going to do? If he closes the pubs that will bring misery upon the country and everyone will just stage house parties instead, which are probably worse in terms of transmission. PartyGate means lockdowns are now unenforceable. Boosters and prescription FFP3 masks for the vulnerable are the only viable avenues.
Vaxports
Are they that effective at actually stopping transmission? I suppose he could do it to make the anti-vaxxers’ lives a misery, but they will probably just dig their heels in for the most part.
For all Boris Johnson's dishevelment he held the line against imposing new social restrictions, probably against the advice of the CMO and CSO.
100% Dr Doom asked for Boris to cancel Christmas and / or New Year.
He also said 200k cases per day after the July unlockdown. He has no credibility.
Only a million a day this time.....100k a day wasn't scary enough.
Most of the public aren’t scared of covid anymore. They have seen first hand that it’s mild or moderate in most people. There just isn’t the unbounded terror of it that there was in early 2020. What people are fearful of is isolation, and passing it on to vulnerable people whom they will be socialising with over Christmas. The fear of isolation and contagion is what has driven the party cancellations, not the fear of the virus itself. That’s a big shift since 2020.
Another evidence free post.
It seems a good analysis. Better treatment and vaccinations has reduced the chances of it killing you by how much? About 95%? I now reckon it carries similar risks to others I run every day, like crossing the road. I'm 56 and have a congenital heart defect, yet when it finally caught up with me last month I had a week off work with something like a bad cold. And that was presumably Delta, Omicron looks significantly less worrying.
Has this been posted ? Pretty well inevitable - as is the SC ruling this Texas style end run around the Constitution unconstitutional. In response to the Texas abortion ban, Gov. Newsom has started pushing for a new law that would allow private citizens to sue manufacturers or distributors of assault weapons https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1469886074621083649
Odd story. I haven't heard of anyone bitten by a mouse before.
But if Covid did get into the human population, how might it have escaped from the Wuhan lab? One possible answer lies in Taiwan, where a scientist working on Covid experiments at the Academia Sinica in Taipei has tested positive for the Delta variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus after being bitten by a laboratory mouse on 19 November. No community transmission of Covid has been recorded in Taiwan for a month. The same worker had previously been bitten by a mouse at the laboratory a month earlier, but on that occasion tested negative. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/does-taiwan-hold-the-answer-to-the-lab-leak-theory-
I suspect if you pick up a mouse with the intent to subject it to medical experiments, it gets a bit pissed off
And particularly if it already has Covid, it almost certainly has a headache and a sore throat
So, what's the feeling? Another promise from Johnson that will be nowhere near met?
Millions and millions of jabs by new years day?
If he doesn't meet it, the Tory faithful here will deny it was ever said
You really are quite bitter and twisted aren't you?
You come across as someone who would rather see the whole country plunged into misery and lockdown than see the country come through the winter well under a Tory PM.
I think it is fair to say I've fussed this last few days. It is clear now with most vaccinated that we want to keep society more open, but we're not quite there on.covid becoming endemic. We have been managing Delta towards that for a few months. My expectation was, as I've said, that as we approached herd immunity, an escape vaccine would emerge, and spread in the vaccinated and prior infected, picking off a few more of the COVID naive and that would signal endemicity. I imagined a seasonal like strain with an R0 of about 1.3, yet able to.outcompete pandemic strains just by having more hosts available to it.
What I hadn't anticipated was a combination of an immune escape variant and one that retains a pandemic type R0 value. Omicron, being able to spread in the immune at such a rate, whilst we attempt to keep society open, could see infection rates approach 1 in 10, and with a fairly high background level of Delta pretty much normalised, could have a very substantial escape velocity by the time people see something different happening in their neighbourhood and start changing behaviour.
So, if Omicron has the momentum to trigger a case rate not previously reached in the pandemic, what does that mean? I'm confident it will be mainly mild in the vaccinated, the previously infected and the boosted, and the ease of reinfection will therefore mean that a far higher proportion of the overall infections are mild. But, with a far higher percentage of the population overall being affected it has the potential to penetrate far quicker into the remaining COVID naive and vulnerable population and that could cause a rapid jump in Hospitalisations, even if, as a percentage, of total cases, Hospitalisations go down.
I'd like Omicron to go through relatively rapidly, keep society open for most, and that is why I came to the conclusion that we needed, in layman's terms, something approaching a lockdown of the unvaccinated until higher Omicron immunity protected both them and the NHS.
It is still early days, even in South Africa - 19 days since it was confirmed as the dominant strain in Gauteng, 16 since it got the name Omicron. Hospitalisation lags are still to be allowed for, even if the signs are promising. We are tantalisingly close to knowing the score much better, but we are not there.
Accelerating boosters, if that is possible, seems like an excellent move, and if that goes smoothly kudos will be deserved. But to rely ENTIRELY on that 'Halley's Comet I deflect to stop Younger's bar from being wrecked' approach is politically very "brave" and perhaps such bravery is led by Boris's current predicament rather than by science.
One more point: Delta is not gone - it is likely Omicron will not outcompete Delta yet in areas of lower combined immunity, whether that's Oceania, the far East, or bits of Eastern Europe for the moment. There are some big waves of pure pandemic strains to be had in some places.
So, what's the feeling? Another promise from Johnson that will be nowhere near met?
Millions and millions of jabs by new years day?
It has certainly grabbed the headlines, and the BBC, Sky and others will be outside vaccination centres and with the army covering all this over the weeks ahead
So, what's the feeling? Another promise from Johnson that will be nowhere near met?
Millions and millions of jabs by new years day?
It has certainly grabbed the headlines, and the BBC, Sky and others will be outside vaccination centres and with the army covering all this over the weeks ahead
As a dead cat it is a decent sized mog. But what a cost to get Johnson's sleaze off the front pages in run up to a by election? Billions probably in the end.
So, what's the feeling? Another promise from Johnson that will be nowhere near met?
Millions and millions of jabs by new years day?
It has certainly grabbed the headlines, and the BBC, Sky and others will be outside vaccination centres and with the army covering all this over the weeks ahead
As a dead cat it is a decent sized mog. But what a cost to get Johnson's sleaze off the front pages in run up to a by election? Billions probably in the end.
Wilson only paid for a bridge.
If it saves lives and the economy together with people's mental health then it is money well spent
So, what's the feeling? Another promise from Johnson that will be nowhere near met?
Millions and millions of jabs by new years day?
It has certainly grabbed the headlines, and the BBC, Sky and others will be outside vaccination centres and with the army covering all this over the weeks ahead
As a dead cat it is a decent sized mog. But what a cost to get Johnson's sleaze off the front pages in run up to a by election? Billions probably in the end.
Wilson only paid for a bridge.
If it saves lives and the economy together with people's mental health then it is money well spent
The cost of distributing vaccines is absolutely sod all compared to the cost of the pandemic or a lockdown.
So, what's the feeling? Another promise from Johnson that will be nowhere near met?
Millions and millions of jabs by new years day?
It has certainly grabbed the headlines, and the BBC, Sky and others will be outside vaccination centres and with the army covering all this over the weeks ahead
As a dead cat it is a decent sized mog. But what a cost to get Johnson's sleaze off the front pages in run up to a by election? Billions probably in the end.
Wilson only paid for a bridge.
If it saves lives and the economy together with people's mental health then it is money well spent
The cost of distributing vaccines is absolutely sod all compared to the cost of the pandemic or a lockdown.
I agree on cost vs lockdown. But why wasn't this being done before? I rather suspect because they knew it couldn't be done and we will find out after the by-election that oh dear, it can't be done. But what ho...
So, what's the feeling? Another promise from Johnson that will be nowhere near met?
Millions and millions of jabs by new years day?
If he doesn't meet it, the Tory faithful here will deny it was ever said
You really are quite bitter and twisted aren't you?
You come across as someone who would rather see the whole country plunged into misery and lockdown than see the country come through the winter well under a Tory PM.
Have had the classic omicron symptoms. Sore throat, headache. Fatigue, muscle pain, raised pulse. Barely any cough to speak of.
Good news. Both me and eldest reckon we are asymptomatic today. But were both expecting worse. So haven't quite appreciated how sick we've been. Concentration is returning. Strange inability to remember stuff and make silly grammatical errors waning.
Two conclusions. If it is omicron.
1. For us it has been very mild. However. It is still a 5 days off work job. So not really that mild. There are implications for the economy if it spreads exponentially. A lot of folk off work. The brain fog is a bar to professions which need long concentration. Wouldn't like to be an air traffic controller going to work tomorrow for example.
2. There is no way to stop transmission other than full lockdown. I caught it without close or particularly lengthy contact. Other than not going anywhere near anyone I don't see how it can be avoided. Except through sheer luck. A double vaxxed and boostered friend caught it. And was ill for 4 or 5 days. Other 3 in this cluster all double jabbed. So vaccines aren't a magic bullet solution to make it entirely go away.
So, what's the feeling? Another promise from Johnson that will be nowhere near met?
Millions and millions of jabs by new years day?
It has certainly grabbed the headlines, and the BBC, Sky and others will be outside vaccination centres and with the army covering all this over the weeks ahead
As a dead cat it is a decent sized mog. But what a cost to get Johnson's sleaze off the front pages in run up to a by election? Billions probably in the end.
Wilson only paid for a bridge.
If it saves lives and the economy together with people's mental health then it is money well spent
The cost of distributing vaccines is absolutely sod all compared to the cost of the pandemic or a lockdown.
I agree on cost vs lockdown. But why wasn't this being done before? I rather suspect because they knew it couldn't be done and we will find out after the by-election that oh dear, it can't be done. But what ho...
Well it was being done, but just at a steady pace by the end of January which would have likely been more than enough pre-Omicron. All over 30s are already eligible (mine is booked for Thursday).
So this is just adding a sense of even more urgency to that which was already being done, rather than trying to spark something from nothing.
Dr Duncan Robertson @Dr_D_Robertson · 2h Or worse - will some people now think that once boosted they can go to that nightclub/pub/Christmas party and have 100% instantaneous immunity from Omicron.
‘Latest Omicron stats for Denmark Dec 12: Out of ~2500 cases, 13 % not vaxed, 75 % vaxed (2 doses) and 10 % boosted (3 doses). ~1 % hospitalized. files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikro…’
So, what's the feeling? Another promise from Johnson that will be nowhere near met?
Millions and millions of jabs by new years day?
If he doesn't meet it, the Tory faithful here will deny it was ever said
You really are quite bitter and twisted aren't you?
You come across as someone who would rather see the whole country plunged into misery and lockdown than see the country come through the winter well under a Tory PM.
If Labour were in office you would be as partisan
No, I wouldn't.
I have my own principles and I stick by them, I don't change them to suit whatever team are in power.
So, what's the feeling? Another promise from Johnson that will be nowhere near met?
Millions and millions of jabs by new years day?
If he doesn't meet it, the Tory faithful here will deny it was ever said
You really are quite bitter and twisted aren't you?
You come across as someone who would rather see the whole country plunged into misery and lockdown than see the country come through the winter well under a Tory PM.
I think this is a fair criticism of Horse and some of the other PBers on my side of politics. There remains far, far too much party political thinking in the covid debate, which is a big problem, as it makes it extremely difficult to reach a balanced consensus.
The daily mask mud slinging is a case in point. There seems to me to a very rational way forward under which the state protects the vulnerable and protects individual liberty - no mandate but FFP3 masks for the vulnerable paid for by taxpayers.
Yet every day we see rounds of vitriol under which mask mandate advocates accuse libertarian posters of having blood on their hands (or faces). It’s unhelpful and counterproductive, another imbecilic culture war.
For all Boris Johnson's dishevelment he held the line against imposing new social restrictions, probably against the advice of the CMO and CSO.
100% Dr Doom asked for Boris to cancel Christmas and / or New Year.
He also said 200k cases per day after the July unlockdown. He has no credibility.
Only a million a day this time.....100k a day wasn't scary enough.
Most of the public aren’t scared of covid anymore. They have seen first hand that it’s mild or moderate in most people. There just isn’t the unbounded terror of it that there was in early 2020. What people are fearful of is isolation, and passing it on to vulnerable people whom they will be socialising with over Christmas. The fear of isolation and contagion is what has driven the party cancellations, not the fear of the virus itself. That’s a big shift since 2020.
Another evidence free post.
It seems a good analysis. Better treatment and vaccinations has reduced the chances of it killing you by how much? About 95%? I now reckon it carries similar risks to others I run every day, like crossing the road. I'm 56 and have a congenital heart defect, yet when it finally caught up with me last month I had a week off work with something like a bad cold. And that was presumably Delta, Omicron looks significantly less worrying.
There is less fear of the virus but the fear of the healthcare system collapsing remains as before and it's this which would drive another lockdown.
Which for me is unlikely. I don't see it happening. It will be a protracted period of some restrictions but well short of lockdown. Confident call from me there.
For all Boris Johnson's dishevelment he held the line against imposing new social restrictions, probably against the advice of the CMO and CSO.
100% Dr Doom asked for Boris to cancel Christmas and / or New Year.
He also said 200k cases per day after the July unlockdown. He has no credibility.
Only a million a day this time.....100k a day wasn't scary enough.
Most of the public aren’t scared of covid anymore. They have seen first hand that it’s mild or moderate in most people. There just isn’t the unbounded terror of it that there was in early 2020. What people are fearful of is isolation, and passing it on to vulnerable people whom they will be socialising with over Christmas. The fear of isolation and contagion is what has driven the party cancellations, not the fear of the virus itself. That’s a big shift since 2020.
Another evidence free post.
It seems a good analysis. Better treatment and vaccinations has reduced the chances of it killing you by how much? About 95%? I now reckon it carries similar risks to others I run every day, like crossing the road. I'm 56 and have a congenital heart defect, yet when it finally caught up with me last month I had a week off work with something like a bad cold. And that was presumably Delta, Omicron looks significantly less worrying.
Yes my analysis was only empirical in the sense I get from my contact group, but that’s a large group. My job involved frequent interactions with lots of people.
‘Latest Omicron stats for Denmark Dec 12: Out of ~2500 cases, 13 % not vaxed, 75 % vaxed (2 doses) and 10 % boosted (3 doses). ~1 % hospitalized. files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikro…’
I am going to say - sadly - that I think more restrictions are on the way.
I'm going to discuss with my counsellor whether they will do remote sessions as otherwise I really will struggle to cope
Please try not to panic
I know we do not agree on many things but we share an important issue
My eldest son (55) is seriously ill with PTSD and anxiety and has been for two years and I really do want to encourage you to try to relax as much as you can and of course keep in regular contact with your advisor and maintain your medication doses
I would just gentle suggest that PB at times can be very stressful and maybe give yourself some quiet time
I am going to say - sadly - that I think more restrictions are on the way.
I'm going to discuss with my counsellor whether they will do remote sessions as otherwise I really will struggle to cope
I hope it goes well. My non-professional advice would be to stay off PB for s while.
I yield to no one in telling posters to fuck off and think it's an internet chat room and wonderful as it is that's all it is
But popping back here after a few hours the atmosphere is pretty corrosive. Best to have a rest from it especially if mental health is of primary importance.
Dr Duncan Robertson @Dr_D_Robertson · 2h Or worse - will some people now think that once boosted they can go to that nightclub/pub/Christmas party and have 100% instantaneous immunity from Omicron.
That would be a very bad mistake to make.
Boris really needed to explain again that a) takes 10+ days to work and b) still far than 100% effective against Omicron.
So, what's the feeling? Another promise from Johnson that will be nowhere near met?
Millions and millions of jabs by new years day?
If he doesn't meet it, the Tory faithful here will deny it was ever said
You really are quite bitter and twisted aren't you?
You come across as someone who would rather see the whole country plunged into misery and lockdown than see the country come through the winter well under a Tory PM.
I think this is a fair criticism of Horse and some of the other PBers on my side of politics. There remains far, far too much party political thinking in the covid debate, which is a big problem, as it makes it extremely difficult to reach a balanced consensus.
The daily mask mud slinging is a case in point. There seems to me to a very rational way forward under which the state protects the vulnerable and protects individual liberty - no mandate but FFP3 masks for the vulnerable paid for by taxpayers.
Yet every day we see rounds of vitriol under which mask mandate advocates accuse libertarian posters of having blood on their hands (or faces). It’s unhelpful and counterproductive, another imbecilic culture war.
Worse still there's not a lot of evidence to support masks actually preventing infections, only kicking them into the future. Few people seem to have listened to Chris Whitty earlier this year when he said everyone will get COVID and now the only real defence was vaccination to reduce the severity of infections.
Have had the classic omicron symptoms. Sore throat, headache. Fatigue, muscle pain, raised pulse. Barely any cough to speak of.
Good news. Both me and eldest reckon we are asymptomatic today. But were both expecting worse. So haven't quite appreciated how sick we've been. Concentration is returning. Strange inability to remember stuff and make silly grammatical errors waning.
Two conclusions. If it is omicron.
1. For us it has been very mild. However. It is still a 5 days off work job. So not really that mild. There are implications for the economy if it spreads exponentially. A lot of folk off work. The brain fog is a bar to professions which need long concentration. Wouldn't like to be an air traffic controller going to work tomorrow for example.
2. There is no way to stop transmission other than full lockdown. I caught it without close or particularly lengthy contact. Other than not going anywhere near anyone I don't see how it can be avoided. Except through sheer luck. A double vaxxed and boostered friend caught it. And was ill for 4 or 5 days. Other 3 in this cluster all double jabbed. So vaccines aren't a magic bullet solution to make it entirely go away.
No solutions. Just anecdotal experience.
Dixiedean. Your man on the infected spot.
My symptoms were fairly similar, as long ago as 12 November. Plus two nights of fever. I'm wondering if it was an early case of Omicron. You are right about the brain gig, and you don't really notice it until it is gone and you start thinking straight again.
‘Latest Omicron stats for Denmark Dec 12: Out of ~2500 cases, 13 % not vaxed, 75 % vaxed (2 doses) and 10 % boosted (3 doses). ~1 % hospitalized. files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikro…’
Have had the classic omicron symptoms. Sore throat, headache. Fatigue, muscle pain, raised pulse. Barely any cough to speak of.
Good news. Both me and eldest reckon we are asymptomatic today. But were both expecting worse. So haven't quite appreciated how sick we've been. Concentration is returning. Strange inability to remember stuff and make silly grammatical errors waning.
Two conclusions. If it is omicron.
1. For us it has been very mild. However. It is still a 5 days off work job. So not really that mild. There are implications for the economy if it spreads exponentially. A lot of folk off work. The brain fog is a bar to professions which need long concentration. Wouldn't like to be an air traffic controller going to work tomorrow for example.
2. There is no way to stop transmission other than full lockdown. I caught it without close or particularly lengthy contact. Other than not going anywhere near anyone I don't see how it can be avoided. Except through sheer luck. A double vaxxed and boostered friend caught it. And was ill for 4 or 5 days. Other 3 in this cluster all double jabbed. So vaccines aren't a magic bullet solution to make it entirely go away.
No solutions. Just anecdotal experience.
Dixiedean. Your man on the infected spot.
My symptoms were fairly similar, as long ago as 12 November. Plus two nights of fever. I'm wondering if it was an early case of Omicron. You are right about the brain gig, and you don't really notice it until it is gone and you start thinking straight again.
For all Boris Johnson's dishevelment he held the line against imposing new social restrictions, probably against the advice of the CMO and CSO.
100% Dr Doom asked for Boris to cancel Christmas and / or New Year.
He also said 200k cases per day after the July unlockdown. He has no credibility.
Only a million a day this time.....100k a day wasn't scary enough.
Most of the public aren’t scared of covid anymore. They have seen first hand that it’s mild or moderate in most people. There just isn’t the unbounded terror of it that there was in early 2020. What people are fearful of is isolation, and passing it on to vulnerable people whom they will be socialising with over Christmas. The fear of isolation and contagion is what has driven the party cancellations, not the fear of the virus itself. That’s a big shift since 2020.
Another evidence free post.
It seems a good analysis. Better treatment and vaccinations has reduced the chances of it killing you by how much? About 95%? I now reckon it carries similar risks to others I run every day, like crossing the road. I'm 56 and have a congenital heart defect, yet when it finally caught up with me last month I had a week off work with something like a bad cold. And that was presumably Delta, Omicron looks significantly less worrying.
Yes my analysis was only empirical in the sense I get from my contact group, but that’s a large group. My job involves frequent interactions with lots of people.
‘Latest Omicron stats for Denmark Dec 12: Out of ~2500 cases, 13 % not vaxed, 75 % vaxed (2 doses) and 10 % boosted (3 doses). ~1 % hospitalized. files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikro…’
So, what's the feeling? Another promise from Johnson that will be nowhere near met?
Millions and millions of jabs by new years day?
If he doesn't meet it, the Tory faithful here will deny it was ever said
You really are quite bitter and twisted aren't you?
You come across as someone who would rather see the whole country plunged into misery and lockdown than see the country come through the winter well under a Tory PM.
I think this is a fair criticism of Horse and some of the other PBers on my side of politics. There remains far, far too much party political thinking in the covid debate, which is a big problem, as it makes it extremely difficult to reach a balanced consensus.
The daily mask mud slinging is a case in point. There seems to me to a very rational way forward under which the state protects the vulnerable and protects individual liberty - no mandate but FFP3 masks for the vulnerable paid for by taxpayers.
Yet every day we see rounds of vitriol under which mask mandate advocates accuse libertarian posters of having blood on their hands (or faces). It’s unhelpful and counterproductive, another imbecilic culture war.
The FFP3 masks for the vulnerable would be a good idea.
Far better to segment risk rather than imposing pointless restrictions on those at minimal risk.
Dr Duncan Robertson @Dr_D_Robertson · 2h Or worse - will some people now think that once boosted they can go to that nightclub/pub/Christmas party and have 100% instantaneous immunity from Omicron.
Have had the classic omicron symptoms. Sore throat, headache. Fatigue, muscle pain, raised pulse. Barely any cough to speak of.
Good news. Both me and eldest reckon we are asymptomatic today. But were both expecting worse. So haven't quite appreciated how sick we've been. Concentration is returning. Strange inability to remember stuff and make silly grammatical errors waning.
Two conclusions. If it is omicron.
1. For us it has been very mild. However. It is still a 5 days off work job. So not really that mild. There are implications for the economy if it spreads exponentially. A lot of folk off work. The brain fog is a bar to professions which need long concentration. Wouldn't like to be an air traffic controller going to work tomorrow for example.
2. There is no way to stop transmission other than full lockdown. I caught it without close or particularly lengthy contact. Other than not going anywhere near anyone I don't see how it can be avoided. Except through sheer luck. A double vaxxed and boostered friend caught it. And was ill for 4 or 5 days. Other 3 in this cluster all double jabbed. So vaccines aren't a magic bullet solution to make it entirely go away.
No solutions. Just anecdotal experience.
Dixiedean. Your man on the infected spot.
Ha ha! I love that reference to Bunnco - he was a self-important irritating Tory booster. I much prefer his impersonator! Glad to hear you and son are making a speedy recovery.
So, what's the feeling? Another promise from Johnson that will be nowhere near met?
Millions and millions of jabs by new years day?
If he doesn't meet it, the Tory faithful here will deny it was ever said
You really are quite bitter and twisted aren't you?
You come across as someone who would rather see the whole country plunged into misery and lockdown than see the country come through the winter well under a Tory PM.
‘Latest Omicron stats for Denmark Dec 12: Out of ~2500 cases, 13 % not vaxed, 75 % vaxed (2 doses) and 10 % boosted (3 doses). ~1 % hospitalized. files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikro…’
It’s going to be brutal, but it’s going to be quick
Alpha hospitalised at a rate of 5%, Delta at a rate of 8%, I'm not sure a 1% hospitalisation rate in a less boosted country is much to worry about.
It’s far too early to say. Omicron cases in Denmark have only just kicked off. A week ago there were barely any. See here
‘1 Dec = 6 2 Dec = 14 3 Dec = 18 4 Dec = 84 (?) 5 Dec = 183 6 Dec = 261 7 Dec = 398 8 Dec = 577 9 Dec = 796 10 Dec =1,280 11 Dec = 1,840 12 Dec = 2,471
I hear the anti-covid crowd on PB rapidly back-pedalling. We are in trouble.
@Charles is the only muppet still defending BoJo, he knows who his paymaster is
Care to post evidence of that?
And pointing out you made a pathetic attack on a prerecorded message vs a live broadcast doesn’t could as a defence.
As I have pointed out on many occasions I have little time for him as an individual and let alone a PM. Although he can be mildly diverting company in the pub once in a while
The real question, Charles, is whether he ducks off to the loo when it's his round?
I hear the anti-covid crowd on PB rapidly back-pedalling. We are in trouble.
@Charles is the only muppet still defending BoJo, he knows who his paymaster is
Care to post evidence of that?
And pointing out you made a pathetic attack on a prerecorded message vs a live broadcast doesn’t could as a defence.
As I have pointed out on many occasions I have little time for him as an individual and let alone a PM. Although he can be mildly diverting company in the pub once in a while
So, what's the feeling? Another promise from Johnson that will be nowhere near met?
Millions and millions of jabs by new years day?
It has certainly grabbed the headlines, and the BBC, Sky and others will be outside vaccination centres and with the army covering all this over the weeks ahead
Comments
And pointing out you made a pathetic attack on a prerecorded message vs a live broadcast doesn’t could as a defence.
As I have pointed out on many occasions I have little time for him as an individual and let alone a PM. Although he can be mildly diverting company in the pub once in a while
[Translated]:
The booster dose appears to restore vaccine efficacy against symptomatic infection. That would be good news! It is time to distribute these doses as a priority to the most vulnerable in France
https://twitter.com/flodebarre/status/1469981536976084993?s=20
Doing work experience for somebody during your early 20s is not "working as a staffer" for the Tories
Millions and millions of jabs by new years day?
Pretty well inevitable - as is the SC ruling this Texas style end run around the Constitution unconstitutional.
In response to the Texas abortion ban, Gov. Newsom has started pushing for a new law that would allow private citizens to sue manufacturers or distributors of assault weapons
https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1469886074621083649
@EssexPR
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11m
When do the “ to save Easter “ lines get activated ?
You come across as someone who would rather see the whole country plunged into misery and lockdown than see the country come through the winter well under a Tory PM.
What I hadn't anticipated was a combination of an immune escape variant and one that retains a pandemic type R0 value. Omicron, being able to spread in the immune at such a rate, whilst we attempt to keep society open, could see infection rates approach 1 in 10, and with a fairly high background level of Delta pretty much normalised, could have a very substantial escape velocity by the time people see something different happening in their neighbourhood and start changing behaviour.
So, if Omicron has the momentum to trigger a case rate not previously reached in the pandemic, what does that mean? I'm confident it will be mainly mild in the vaccinated, the previously infected and the boosted, and the ease of reinfection will therefore mean that a far higher proportion of the overall infections are mild. But, with a far higher percentage of the population overall being affected it has the potential to penetrate far quicker into the remaining COVID naive and vulnerable population and that could cause a rapid jump in Hospitalisations, even if, as a percentage, of total cases, Hospitalisations go down.
I'd like Omicron to go through relatively rapidly, keep society open for most, and that is why I came to the conclusion that we needed, in layman's terms, something approaching a lockdown of the unvaccinated until higher Omicron immunity protected both them and the NHS.
It is still early days, even in South Africa - 19 days since it was confirmed as the dominant strain in Gauteng, 16 since it got the name Omicron. Hospitalisation lags are still to be allowed for, even if the signs are promising. We are tantalisingly close to knowing the score much better, but we are not there.
Accelerating boosters, if that is possible, seems like an excellent move, and if that goes smoothly kudos will be deserved. But to rely ENTIRELY on that 'Halley's Comet I deflect to stop Younger's bar from being wrecked' approach is politically very "brave" and perhaps such bravery is led by Boris's current predicament rather than by science.
One more point: Delta is not gone - it is likely Omicron will not outcompete Delta yet in areas of lower combined immunity, whether that's Oceania, the far East, or bits of Eastern Europe for the moment. There are some big waves of pure pandemic strains to be had in some places.
Wilson only paid for a bridge.
Have had the classic omicron symptoms. Sore throat, headache. Fatigue, muscle pain, raised pulse. Barely any cough to speak of.
Good news. Both me and eldest reckon we are asymptomatic today. But were both expecting worse. So haven't quite appreciated how sick we've been.
Concentration is returning. Strange inability to remember stuff and make silly grammatical errors waning.
Two conclusions. If it is omicron.
1. For us it has been very mild. However. It is still a 5 days off work job. So not really that mild. There are implications for the economy if it spreads exponentially. A lot of folk off work. The brain fog is a bar to professions which need long concentration. Wouldn't like to be an air traffic controller going to work tomorrow for example.
2. There is no way to stop transmission other than full lockdown. I caught it without close or particularly lengthy contact. Other than not going anywhere near anyone I don't see how it can be avoided. Except through sheer luck.
A double vaxxed and boostered friend caught it. And was ill for 4 or 5 days. Other 3 in this cluster all double jabbed.
So vaccines aren't a magic bullet solution to make it entirely go away.
No solutions. Just anecdotal experience.
Dixiedean. Your man on the infected spot.
So this is just adding a sense of even more urgency to that which was already being done, rather than trying to spark something from nothing.
@Dr_D_Robertson
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2h
Or worse - will some people now think that once boosted they can go to that nightclub/pub/Christmas party and have 100% instantaneous immunity from Omicron.
That would be a very bad mistake to make.
I'm going to discuss with my counsellor whether they will do remote sessions as otherwise I really will struggle to cope
https://twitter.com/piamarken/status/1470164175980748801?s=21
I have my own principles and I stick by them, I don't change them to suit whatever team are in power.
The daily mask mud slinging is a case in point. There seems to me to a very rational way forward under which the state protects the vulnerable and protects individual liberty - no mandate but FFP3 masks for the vulnerable paid for by taxpayers.
Yet every day we see rounds of vitriol under which mask mandate advocates accuse libertarian posters of having blood on their hands (or faces). It’s unhelpful and counterproductive, another imbecilic culture war.
And IIRC there was meant to be a big ramp up in vaccination beginning no later than tomorrow.
The higher numbers of the last few days suggest that has already begun.
So I'm quite hopeful.
Anyway the important thing is for the boosters to be given not for any target to be met.
But the target acts to spur those boosters.
Which for me is unlikely. I don't see it happening. It will be a protracted period of some restrictions but well short of lockdown. Confident call from me there.
I know we do not agree on many things but we share an important issue
My eldest son (55) is seriously ill with PTSD and anxiety and has been for two years and I really do want to encourage you to try to relax as much as you can and of course keep in regular contact with your advisor and maintain your medication doses
I would just gentle suggest that PB at times can be very stressful and maybe give yourself some quiet time
All the very best in your treatments
I yield to no one in telling posters to fuck off and think it's an internet chat room and wonderful as it is that's all it is
But popping back here after a few hours the atmosphere is pretty corrosive. Best to have a rest from it especially if mental health is of primary importance.
And that goes for everyone, frankly.
What we can say is that Omicron is even more transmissible than we thought. It is doubling in Denmark, the UK, Holland every ~1.6 days
Omicron will become the dominant strain in Denmark THIS WEEK
‘#Omicron estimated to become dominant in 🇩🇰 on Tuesday, Dec. 14th, and ~97% by🎄
DAILY progression is on par with WEEKLY progression for #Alpha (🇬🇧variant) a year ago.
Underlying methods (applied to #Alpha and #Delta) described here: arxiv.org/abs/2110.00533’
https://twitter.com/profphansen/status/1469528190888652804?s=21
It’s going to be brutal, but it’s going to be quick
Far better to segment risk rather than imposing pointless restrictions on those at minimal risk.
‘1 Dec = 6
2 Dec = 14
3 Dec = 18
4 Dec = 84 (?)
5 Dec = 183
6 Dec = 261
7 Dec = 398
8 Dec = 577
9 Dec = 796
10 Dec =1,280
11 Dec = 1,840
12 Dec = 2,471
Most cases are in 20-29-year-olds.
27 in hospital (8 hospital-acquired).
DK = 76.5% fully vaxxed.’
https://twitter.com/caerage/status/1470138564612665345?s=21
Let’s hope the hospitalisation rate stays at 1%. Otherwise we’re fucked
This exponential curve will hit every country, of course
Certainly many millions.