Similar error bars to that German newspaper report on AZ efficacy.
You need to be very careful about extrapolating from small datasets.
There's also not just one Pfizer efficiency number, there are a dozen:
(1) efficiency against symptomatic infection (2) efficiency against mild-to-moderate symptoms (3) efficiency against serious symptoms (4) efficiency against hospitalization (5) efficiency against death
Plus
(1) efficiency one jab vs two vs three (2) efficiency when combined with other vaccines
Plus
(1) Efficiency depending on time since the vaccine was administered
Can’t say I like a test with neither Broad nor Anderson in the XI
I think this is the last hurrah for them. England need to move on.
There's life in them yet. Everyone thought when Brady left the Pats it was his last hurrah too.. But yes old father time will catch up with them at some point. Perhaps not just yet though.
The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.
Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.
People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.
No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.
I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
That last sentence - you're a real charmer, aren't you?
Which is worse: Fucking around with the education of millions, or thousands of sick people reaching the end of their natural lives?
Kids can catch up on their education. The dead can't get their lives back.
But if 98% of the dead are over 80, morbidly obese or anti-vaxxers?
Is it worth sacrificing the economy AGAIN and seeding decades of poor mental health in many millions, to save these people?
It's a brutal and ugly question, but Philip is right to ask it. And I am tending towards his side of the equation
Why is this all coming out now? Is this a last ditch attempt from an anti-lockdown minister to undermine the PM just before the WFH, cancel the party, don't hug your grandparents announcement?
The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.
Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.
People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.
No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.
I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
That last sentence - you're a real charmer, aren't you?
Which is worse: Fucking around with the education of millions, or thousands of sick people reaching the end of their natural lives?
Kids can catch up on their education. The dead can't get their lives back.
Can they? A legitimate question.
Yes, they can; particularly if they carry on doing some learning at home if school is closed. It's amazing how much scope there is to accelerate learning if people put their mind to it. Having said that, I have little confidence in the DfE to do what's necessary to help kids catch up. Too much reliance is placed on parents, which is obviously going to lead to very inequitable outcomes.
That "particularly" is doing a lot of heavy limiting there. There's a reason you don't take two-year gaps during your schooling.
Depends how dangerous it is. No-one seems to know so far.
Most scientists commenting on this study seem to think it’s good news. Much better results for 2x vax + infection than 2 vax only, which implies boosters should do a decent job. And this is just neutralising antibodies against infection, not protection against severe disease.
I think I’m with Prof Balloux that this could be the first of many “endemic variants”.
Yes, it’s been received quite calmly and with cautious optimism - outside the pages of PB.
Strange that.
Again, it would be nice if you could please supply us with evidence of this "cautious optimism". Ta
The best I can find (as in: most hopeful) says "not terrible"
Strangely, in amongst al this, there seems to be very little evidence so that Omicron is dangerous at all, so far.
This is the elephant in the room.
But people don’t dare believe the South Africans, who have been saying this for a fortnight. They don’t dare believe the Japanese, who reversed a travel ban thinking the variant milder. They don’t dare believe Fauci, who suspects the variant is less severe.
Nobody knows for sure. And the anecdotes / early data could be wrong. But there is undoubtably some reverse psychology going on.
I think it’s more that when we’ve previously made assumptions on limited evidence, they have often proved wrong. Given that it’s only a matter of a week or so until we have considerably more certainty, being a bit cautious in the meantime is hardly an extreme position.
The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.
Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.
People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.
No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.
I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
That last sentence - you're a real charmer, aren't you?
Which is worse: Fucking around with the education of millions, or thousands of sick people reaching the end of their natural lives?
Kids can catch up on their education. The dead can't get their lives back.
But if 98% of the dead are over 80, morbidly obese or anti-vaxxers?
Is it worth sacrificing the economy AGAIN and seeding decades of poor mental health in many millions, to save these people?
It's a brutal and ugly question, but Philip is right to ask it. And I am tending towards his side of the equation
Yep. This thing is not going away. We can lockdown all we like but it will still be there afterwards.
The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.
Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.
People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.
No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.
I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
That last sentence - you're a real charmer, aren't you?
Which is worse: Fucking around with the education of millions, or thousands of sick people reaching the end of their natural lives?
Kids can catch up on their education. The dead can't get their lives back.
But if 98% of the dead are over 80, morbidly obese or anti-vaxxers?
Is it worth sacrificing the economy AGAIN and seeding decades of poor mental health in many millions, to save these people?
It's a brutal and ugly question, but Philip is right to ask it. And I am tending towards his side of the equation
Depends how dangerous it is. No-one seems to know so far.
Most scientists commenting on this study seem to think it’s good news. Much better results for 2x vax + infection than 2 vax only, which implies boosters should do a decent job. And this is just neutralising antibodies against infection, not protection against severe disease.
I think I’m with Prof Balloux that this could be the first of many “endemic variants”.
Yes, it’s been received quite calmly and with cautious optimism - outside the pages of PB.
Strange that.
Again, it would be nice if you could please supply us with evidence of this "cautious optimism". Ta
The best I can find (as in: most hopeful) says "not terrible"
I'm not a scientist - clearly - so someone else might be able to be help, but if the symptoms are so much less severe, surely it matters less if there's immune escape ?
In that case, we'd all seem to be re-picking up a cold-type virus, which would presumably help inoculate us against some or all future forms of covid, too.
The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.
Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.
People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.
No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.
I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
That last sentence - you're a real charmer, aren't you?
Which is worse: Fucking around with the education of millions, or thousands of sick people reaching the end of their natural lives?
Kids can catch up on their education. The dead can't get their lives back.
Can they? A legitimate question.
Yes, they can; particularly if they carry on doing some learning at home if school is closed. It's amazing how much scope there is to accelerate learning if people put their mind to it. Having said that, I have little confidence in the DfE to do what's necessary to help kids catch up. Too much reliance is placed on parents, which is obviously going to lead to very inequitable outcomes.
They can catch up on years of lost education and lost life experiences? You're taking the piss, right?
As a parent we're not supposed to take our children out of school even for just a few days to have a holiday, because of the paramount importance of education. Despite the fact that seeing the world and broadening your horizons being probably a better education than a single week of school, especially in primary education.
Yet somehow they're supposed to catch up not on a few days of education, but years of it? Give over, you can not be serious!
Strangely, in amongst al this, there seems to be very little evidence so that Omicron is dangerous at all, so far.
This is the elephant in the room.
But people don’t dare believe the South Africans, who have been saying this for a fortnight. They don’t dare believe the Japanese, who reversed a travel ban thinking the variant milder. They don’t dare believe Fauci, who suspects the variant is less severe.
Nobody knows for sure. And the anecdotes / early data could be wrong. But there is undoubtably some reverse psychology going on.
I think it’s more that when we’ve previously made assumptions on limited evidence, they have often proved wrong. Given that it’s only a matter of a week or so until we have considerably more certainty, being a bit cautious in the meantime is hardly an extreme position.
Depends how dangerous it is. No-one seems to know so far.
Most scientists commenting on this study seem to think it’s good news. Much better results for 2x vax + infection than 2 vax only, which implies boosters should do a decent job. And this is just neutralising antibodies against infection, not protection against severe disease.
I think I’m with Prof Balloux that this could be the first of many “endemic variants”.
Yes, it’s been received quite calmly and with cautious optimism - outside the pages of PB.
Strange that.
Again, it would be nice if you could please supply us with evidence of this "cautious optimism". Ta
The best I can find (as in: most hopeful) says "not terrible"
Why is this all coming out now? Is this a last ditch attempt from an anti-lockdown minister to undermine the PM just before the WFH, cancel the party, don't hug your grandparents announcement?
Because the PM is so disorganized and slipshod that there is evidence waiting to be used when he is weak. He engenders no loyalty. It's all transactional for him.
All he had to do was get his pads in the way and Australia probably wouldn't have reviewed first ball on a delivery that initially looked like it might have been going down the leg side.
NEW NHS booking site for booster jabs opens up to all over-40s who had their jab at least three months ago on Wednesday. Another 7m people in England invited to get their 3rd dose. This should be start of proper ramp-up, previously scheduled for next Monday.
Edit - I just messaged a friend who was booked in a couple of weeks time, apparently its now live and they managed to rebook for Thursday.
Depends how dangerous it is. No-one seems to know so far.
Most scientists commenting on this study seem to think it’s good news. Much better results for 2x vax + infection than 2 vax only, which implies boosters should do a decent job. And this is just neutralising antibodies against infection, not protection against severe disease.
I think I’m with Prof Balloux that this could be the first of many “endemic variants”.
Yes, it’s been received quite calmly and with cautious optimism - outside the pages of PB.
Strange that.
Again, it would be nice if you could please supply us with evidence of this "cautious optimism". Ta
The best I can find (as in: most hopeful) says "not terrible"
lol. The one Twitter account which is relentlessly optimistic to the point that she often has to delete foolish remarks
But, if it floats yer boat. Good for you
You simply asked me to provide an example, which I duly did.
Meantime, here’s a good article to read about severity - you’ll like the graphs. (If you have reached your article limit you can get them via John Burn-Murdoch’s thread)
That twitter account is nearly always optimistic about Covid. Sometimes quite rightly so, yet sometimes quite wrongly - and the embarrassing wrongness has increased of late
It is the polar opposite of this account, which errs on the side of pessimism and even alarmism:
1h 6) I have seen the vaccine efficacy % drops for #Omicron. It’s not published yet, but the CDC of South Africa has presented it to White House twice now. It’s not looking good.
An IHME report with more info will be coming out soon later this week too."
That twitter account is nearly always optimistic about Covid. Sometimes quite rightly so, yet sometimes quite wrongly - and the embarrassing wrongness has increased of late
It is the polar opposite of this account, which errs on the side of pessimism and even alarmism:
1h 6) I have seen the vaccine efficacy % drops for #Omicron. It’s not published yet, but the CDC of South Africa has presented it to White House twice now. It’s not looking good.
An IHME report with more info will be coming out soon later this week too."
Depends how dangerous it is. No-one seems to know so far.
Most scientists commenting on this study seem to think it’s good news. Much better results for 2x vax + infection than 2 vax only, which implies boosters should do a decent job. And this is just neutralising antibodies against infection, not protection against severe disease.
I think I’m with Prof Balloux that this could be the first of many “endemic variants”.
Yes, it’s been received quite calmly and with cautious optimism - outside the pages of PB.
Strange that.
Again, it would be nice if you could please supply us with evidence of this "cautious optimism". Ta
The best I can find (as in: most hopeful) says "not terrible"
lol. The one Twitter account which is relentlessly optimistic to the point that she often has to delete foolish remarks
But, if it floats yer boat. Good for you
You simply asked me to provide an example, which I duly did.
Meantime, here’s a good article to read about severity - you’ll like the graphs. (If you have reached your article limit you can get them via John Burn-Murdoch’s thread)
The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.
Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.
People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.
No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.
I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
That last sentence - you're a real charmer, aren't you?
Which is worse: Fucking around with the education of millions, or thousands of sick people reaching the end of their natural lives?
Kids can catch up on their education. The dead can't get their lives back.
Can they? A legitimate question.
Yes, they can; particularly if they carry on doing some learning at home if school is closed. It's amazing how much scope there is to accelerate learning if people put their mind to it. Having said that, I have little confidence in the DfE to do what's necessary to help kids catch up. Too much reliance is placed on parents, which is obviously going to lead to very inequitable outcomes.
They can catch up on years of lost education and lost life experiences? You're taking the piss, right?
As a parent we're not supposed to take our children out of school even for just a few days to have a holiday, because of the paramount importance of education. Despite the fact that seeing the world and broadening your horizons being probably a better education than a single week of school, especially in primary education.
Yet somehow they're supposed to catch up not on a few days of education, but years of it? Give over, you can not be serious!
My youngest, who is similar in age to yours, is currently having therapy. Which fortunately, being middle class, we can afford. She was a fairly normal well-balanced child in Jaunary 2020; by Spring 2021 she was a loose cannon, a ball of rage. The headmaster at her school is very sympathetic; apparently 'about half' of the kids at that infant school are showing signs of emotional problems. This is a school with a fairly comfortably off catchment. Older kids can interact with each other remotely; infant school children need nothing more than other infant school children.
The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.
Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.
People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.
No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.
I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
That last sentence - you're a real charmer, aren't you?
Which is worse: Fucking around with the education of millions, or thousands of sick people reaching the end of their natural lives?
Kids can catch up on their education. The dead can't get their lives back.
Can they? A legitimate question.
Yes, they can; particularly if they carry on doing some learning at home if school is closed. It's amazing how much scope there is to accelerate learning if people put their mind to it. Having said that, I have little confidence in the DfE to do what's necessary to help kids catch up. Too much reliance is placed on parents, which is obviously going to lead to very inequitable outcomes.
They can catch up on years of lost education and lost life experiences? You're taking the piss, right?
As a parent we're not supposed to take our children out of school even for just a few days to have a holiday, because of the paramount importance of education. Despite the fact that seeing the world and broadening your horizons being probably a better education than a single week of school, especially in primary education.
Yet somehow they're supposed to catch up not on a few days of education, but years of it? Give over, you can not be serious!
My youngest, who is similar in age to yours, is currently having therapy. Which fortunately, being middle class, we can afford. She was a fairly normal well-balanced child in Jaunary 2020; by Spring 2021 she was a loose cannon, a ball of rage. The headmaster at her school is very sympathetic; apparently 'about half' of the kids at that infant school are showing signs of emotional problems. This is a school with a fairly comfortably off catchment. Older kids can interact with each other remotely; infant school children need nothing more than other infant school children.
Nothing a few hours behind a computer won't fix, apparently.
That twitter account is nearly always optimistic about Covid. Sometimes quite rightly so, yet sometimes quite wrongly - and the embarrassing wrongness has increased of late
It is the polar opposite of this account, which errs on the side of pessimism and even alarmism:
1h 6) I have seen the vaccine efficacy % drops for #Omicron. It’s not published yet, but the CDC of South Africa has presented it to White House twice now. It’s not looking good.
An IHME report with more info will be coming out soon later this week too."
Is it too late for me to get a refund on my BT Sport subscription? 🤦♂️
Ask for a refund under trade description...you subscribed to watch sport....which is defined as "an activity involving physical exertion and skill in which an individual or team competes against another or others for entertainment."
The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.
Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.
People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.
No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.
I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
That last sentence - you're a real charmer, aren't you?
Which is worse: Fucking around with the education of millions, or thousands of sick people reaching the end of their natural lives?
Kids can catch up on their education. The dead can't get their lives back.
Can they? A legitimate question.
Yes, they can; particularly if they carry on doing some learning at home if school is closed. It's amazing how much scope there is to accelerate learning if people put their mind to it. Having said that, I have little confidence in the DfE to do what's necessary to help kids catch up. Too much reliance is placed on parents, which is obviously going to lead to very inequitable outcomes.
They can catch up on years of lost education and lost life experiences? You're taking the piss, right?
As a parent we're not supposed to take our children out of school even for just a few days to have a holiday, because of the paramount importance of education. Despite the fact that seeing the world and broadening your horizons being probably a better education than a single week of school, especially in primary education.
Yet somehow they're supposed to catch up not on a few days of education, but years of it? Give over, you can not be serious!
My youngest, who is similar in age to yours, is currently having therapy. Which fortunately, being middle class, we can afford. She was a fairly normal well-balanced child in Jaunary 2020; by Spring 2021 she was a loose cannon, a ball of rage. The headmaster at her school is very sympathetic; apparently 'about half' of the kids at that infant school are showing signs of emotional problems. This is a school with a fairly comfortably off catchment. Older kids can interact with each other remotely; infant school children need nothing more than other infant school children.
My sympathies. I cannot bear to think what this is doing to kids age 3-10. It is bad enough for mine in their mid teens
These poor kids could lose a THIRD year of education and socialisation. Heart breaking. People who airily talk of more lockdowns and "save the old" can fuck off. I'm with Philip. This is a deadly calculus and locking down entire countries to give two more years of life to 83 year olds or to spare the poor obese anti vaxxers is not an obviously winning policy, for me
That twitter account is nearly always optimistic about Covid. Sometimes quite rightly so, yet sometimes quite wrongly - and the embarrassing wrongness has increased of late
It is the polar opposite of this account, which errs on the side of pessimism and even alarmism:
1h 6) I have seen the vaccine efficacy % drops for #Omicron. It’s not published yet, but the CDC of South Africa has presented it to White House twice now. It’s not looking good.
An IHME report with more info will be coming out soon later this week too."
The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.
Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.
People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.
No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.
I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
That last sentence - you're a real charmer, aren't you?
Which is worse: Fucking around with the education of millions, or thousands of sick people reaching the end of their natural lives?
Kids can catch up on their education. The dead can't get their lives back.
Can they? A legitimate question.
Yes, they can; particularly if they carry on doing some learning at home if school is closed. It's amazing how much scope there is to accelerate learning if people put their mind to it. Having said that, I have little confidence in the DfE to do what's necessary to help kids catch up. Too much reliance is placed on parents, which is obviously going to lead to very inequitable outcomes.
They can catch up on years of lost education and lost life experiences? You're taking the piss, right?
As a parent we're not supposed to take our children out of school even for just a few days to have a holiday, because of the paramount importance of education. Despite the fact that seeing the world and broadening your horizons being probably a better education than a single week of school, especially in primary education.
Yet somehow they're supposed to catch up not on a few days of education, but years of it? Give over, you can not be serious!
My youngest, who is similar in age to yours, is currently having therapy. Which fortunately, being middle class, we can afford. She was a fairly normal well-balanced child in Jaunary 2020; by Spring 2021 she was a loose cannon, a ball of rage. The headmaster at her school is very sympathetic; apparently 'about half' of the kids at that infant school are showing signs of emotional problems. This is a school with a fairly comfortably off catchment. Older kids can interact with each other remotely; infant school children need nothing more than other infant school children.
My sympathies. I cannot bear to think what this is doing to kids age 3-10. It is bad enough for mine in their mid teens
These poor kids could lose a THIRD year of education and socialisation. Heart breaking. People who airily talk of more lockdowns and "save the old" can fuck off. I'm with Philip. This is a deadly calculus and locking down entire countries to give two more years of life to 83 year olds or to spare the poor obese anti vaxxers is not an obviously winning policy, for me
The very elderly and those with serious health conditions can self-isolate if they want to. We can't continue to ruin children's education.
That twitter account is nearly always optimistic about Covid. Sometimes quite rightly so, yet sometimes quite wrongly - and the embarrassing wrongness has increased of late
It is the polar opposite of this account, which errs on the side of pessimism and even alarmism:
1h 6) I have seen the vaccine efficacy % drops for #Omicron. It’s not published yet, but the CDC of South Africa has presented it to White House twice now. It’s not looking good.
An IHME report with more info will be coming out soon later this week too."
That twitter account is nearly always optimistic about Covid. Sometimes quite rightly so, yet sometimes quite wrongly - and the embarrassing wrongness has increased of late
It is the polar opposite of this account, which errs on the side of pessimism and even alarmism:
1h 6) I have seen the vaccine efficacy % drops for #Omicron. It’s not published yet, but the CDC of South Africa has presented it to White House twice now. It’s not looking good.
An IHME report with more info will be coming out soon later this week too."
in my experience if you read both with a skeptical mind, and then choose somewhere halfway between them, that is generally a pretty good prediction
Ah, but is the graph itself wrong? If it isn't all that different from Delta, we've got nothing to worry about.
What are you on about? The graph shows hospital admissions in SA, produced by the SA stats agency
This bastard is five times more transmissible than Delta, roughly. It is definitely worse, in that respect
Actually, it is a bit more complicated than that. Are those admissions with Omicron, or for Omicron?
According to the Dr Thingymejig video posted the other day, 76% of hospital admissions with Omicron were for reasons other than Covid. Man comes in with broken leg, gets tested, is found to have Covid, and is tagged accordingly.
The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.
Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.
People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.
No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.
I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
That last sentence - you're a real charmer, aren't you?
Which is worse: Fucking around with the education of millions, or thousands of sick people reaching the end of their natural lives?
Kids can catch up on their education. The dead can't get their lives back.
Can they? A legitimate question.
Yes, they can; particularly if they carry on doing some learning at home if school is closed. It's amazing how much scope there is to accelerate learning if people put their mind to it. Having said that, I have little confidence in the DfE to do what's necessary to help kids catch up. Too much reliance is placed on parents, which is obviously going to lead to very inequitable outcomes.
They can catch up on years of lost education and lost life experiences? You're taking the piss, right?
As a parent we're not supposed to take our children out of school even for just a few days to have a holiday, because of the paramount importance of education. Despite the fact that seeing the world and broadening your horizons being probably a better education than a single week of school, especially in primary education.
Yet somehow they're supposed to catch up not on a few days of education, but years of it? Give over, you can not be serious!
My youngest, who is similar in age to yours, is currently having therapy. Which fortunately, being middle class, we can afford. She was a fairly normal well-balanced child in Jaunary 2020; by Spring 2021 she was a loose cannon, a ball of rage. The headmaster at her school is very sympathetic; apparently 'about half' of the kids at that infant school are showing signs of emotional problems. This is a school with a fairly comfortably off catchment. Older kids can interact with each other remotely; infant school children need nothing more than other infant school children.
My sympathies. I cannot bear to think what this is doing to kids age 3-10. It is bad enough for mine in their mid teens
These poor kids could lose a THIRD year of education and socialisation. Heart breaking. People who airily talk of more lockdowns and "save the old" can fuck off. I'm with Philip. This is a deadly calculus and locking down entire countries to give two more years of life to 83 year olds or to spare the poor obese anti vaxxers is not an obviously winning policy, for me
Yes but. Who votes for this shower? Not kids or parents by and large. It is a government for the aged and very proud of it.
Batting first was asking for trouble. There was always the chance that the humiliation would start very early and they'd be mentally done by lunch on the first day.
At least bowling they couldn't lose straight from the off and there would be a chance to get into the match.
The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.
Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.
People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.
No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.
I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
That last sentence - you're a real charmer, aren't you?
Which is worse: Fucking around with the education of millions, or thousands of sick people reaching the end of their natural lives?
Kids can catch up on their education. The dead can't get their lives back.
Can they? A legitimate question.
Yes, they can; particularly if they carry on doing some learning at home if school is closed. It's amazing how much scope there is to accelerate learning if people put their mind to it. Having said that, I have little confidence in the DfE to do what's necessary to help kids catch up. Too much reliance is placed on parents, which is obviously going to lead to very inequitable outcomes.
They can catch up on years of lost education and lost life experiences? You're taking the piss, right?
As a parent we're not supposed to take our children out of school even for just a few days to have a holiday, because of the paramount importance of education. Despite the fact that seeing the world and broadening your horizons being probably a better education than a single week of school, especially in primary education.
Yet somehow they're supposed to catch up not on a few days of education, but years of it? Give over, you can not be serious!
My youngest, who is similar in age to yours, is currently having therapy. Which fortunately, being middle class, we can afford. She was a fairly normal well-balanced child in Jaunary 2020; by Spring 2021 she was a loose cannon, a ball of rage. The headmaster at her school is very sympathetic; apparently 'about half' of the kids at that infant school are showing signs of emotional problems. This is a school with a fairly comfortably off catchment. Older kids can interact with each other remotely; infant school children need nothing more than other infant school children.
My sympathies. I cannot bear to think what this is doing to kids age 3-10. It is bad enough for mine in their mid teens
These poor kids could lose a THIRD year of education and socialisation. Heart breaking. People who airily talk of more lockdowns and "save the old" can fuck off. I'm with Philip. This is a deadly calculus and locking down entire countries to give two more years of life to 83 year olds or to spare the poor obese anti vaxxers is not an obviously winning policy, for me
Shutting schools was a complete and utter disaster. It should not be contemplated again.
The damage will be with that generation for the rest of their lives.
I hope the public inquiry will dig deep into why this decision was taken the massive massive costs of doing it for a disease that clearly does not really relatively hit kids.
Batting first was asking for trouble. There was always the chance that the humiliation would start very early and they'd be mentally done by lunch on the first day.
At least bowling they couldn't lose straight from the off and there would be a chance to get into the match.
Should have lost the toss. Didn't even get that right.
That twitter account is nearly always optimistic about Covid. Sometimes quite rightly so, yet sometimes quite wrongly - and the embarrassing wrongness has increased of late
It is the polar opposite of this account, which errs on the side of pessimism and even alarmism:
1h 6) I have seen the vaccine efficacy % drops for #Omicron. It’s not published yet, but the CDC of South Africa has presented it to White House twice now. It’s not looking good.
An IHME report with more info will be coming out soon later this week too."
in my experience if you read both with a skeptical mind, and then choose somewhere halfway between them, that is generally a pretty good prediction
Ah, but is the graph itself wrong? If it isn't all that different from Delta, we've got nothing to worry about.
What are you on about? The graph shows hospital admissions in SA, produced by the SA stats agency
This bastard is five times more transmissible than Delta, roughly. It is definitely worse, in that respect
Actually, it is a bit more complicated than that. Are those admissions with Omicron, or for Omicron?
According to the Dr Thingymejig video posted the other day, 76% of hospital admissions with Omicron were for reasons other than Covid. Man comes in with broken leg, gets tested, is found to have Covid, and is tagged accordingly.
And yet I have read the exact opposite today
I'd find the source but its 12.30am here so forgive me. I have some wine to finish and an episode of Masterchef to watch
The tweet I read (from some Saffer doctor) said that given the surge in hospital cases and the bad situation in SA in general, anyone going into a SA hospital now is probably going in BECAUSE of Covid. No one wants to risk catching it unless they have something REALLY serious, or they have Covid (of course)
So the hospitalisation stats are reliable indicators, tho not entirely lucid
Who to believe? It is like the early stages of a battle, the gunsmoke drifts, the armies are obscured, yet the cries of the wounded begin to pierce the mist....
Why is this all coming out now? Is this a last ditch attempt from an anti-lockdown minister to undermine the PM just before the WFH, cancel the party, don't hug your grandparents announcement?
Who could possibly gain by undermining the PM?
Oh, I now see that doesn't narrow the list too much.
The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.
Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.
People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.
No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.
I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
That last sentence - you're a real charmer, aren't you?
Which is worse: Fucking around with the education of millions, or thousands of sick people reaching the end of their natural lives?
Kids can catch up on their education. The dead can't get their lives back.
Can they? A legitimate question.
Yes, they can; particularly if they carry on doing some learning at home if school is closed. It's amazing how much scope there is to accelerate learning if people put their mind to it. Having said that, I have little confidence in the DfE to do what's necessary to help kids catch up. Too much reliance is placed on parents, which is obviously going to lead to very inequitable outcomes.
They can catch up on years of lost education and lost life experiences? You're taking the piss, right?
As a parent we're not supposed to take our children out of school even for just a few days to have a holiday, because of the paramount importance of education. Despite the fact that seeing the world and broadening your horizons being probably a better education than a single week of school, especially in primary education.
Yet somehow they're supposed to catch up not on a few days of education, but years of it? Give over, you can not be serious!
My youngest, who is similar in age to yours, is currently having therapy. Which fortunately, being middle class, we can afford. She was a fairly normal well-balanced child in Jaunary 2020; by Spring 2021 she was a loose cannon, a ball of rage. The headmaster at her school is very sympathetic; apparently 'about half' of the kids at that infant school are showing signs of emotional problems. This is a school with a fairly comfortably off catchment. Older kids can interact with each other remotely; infant school children need nothing more than other infant school children.
My sympathies. I cannot bear to think what this is doing to kids age 3-10. It is bad enough for mine in their mid teens
These poor kids could lose a THIRD year of education and socialisation. Heart breaking. People who airily talk of more lockdowns and "save the old" can fuck off. I'm with Philip. This is a deadly calculus and locking down entire countries to give two more years of life to 83 year olds or to spare the poor obese anti vaxxers is not an obviously winning policy, for me
Shutting schools was a complete and utter disaster. It should not be contemplated again.
The damage will be with that generation for the rest of their lives.
I hope the public inquiry will dig deep into why this decision was taken the massive massive costs of doing it for a disease that clearly does not really relatively hit kids.
Yes. The UK said "sorry you don't matter" to my shy and vulnerable older daughter, who REALLY needed school, and was doing great pre-plague (now doing not so great), and it did this so it could protect the life of my 84 year old mother, who is barely coherent most of the day and has a life expectancy of about 18 months
WTF
If I sound cold and angry, it's coz I am
I really must go and watch Masterchef. This time for real. Goodnight
The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.
Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.
People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.
No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.
I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
That last sentence - you're a real charmer, aren't you?
Which is worse: Fucking around with the education of millions, or thousands of sick people reaching the end of their natural lives?
Kids can catch up on their education. The dead can't get their lives back.
Can they? A legitimate question.
Yes, they can; particularly if they carry on doing some learning at home if school is closed. It's amazing how much scope there is to accelerate learning if people put their mind to it. Having said that, I have little confidence in the DfE to do what's necessary to help kids catch up. Too much reliance is placed on parents, which is obviously going to lead to very inequitable outcomes.
They can catch up on years of lost education and lost life experiences? You're taking the piss, right?
As a parent we're not supposed to take our children out of school even for just a few days to have a holiday, because of the paramount importance of education. Despite the fact that seeing the world and broadening your horizons being probably a better education than a single week of school, especially in primary education.
Yet somehow they're supposed to catch up not on a few days of education, but years of it? Give over, you can not be serious!
My youngest, who is similar in age to yours, is currently having therapy. Which fortunately, being middle class, we can afford. She was a fairly normal well-balanced child in Jaunary 2020; by Spring 2021 she was a loose cannon, a ball of rage. The headmaster at her school is very sympathetic; apparently 'about half' of the kids at that infant school are showing signs of emotional problems. This is a school with a fairly comfortably off catchment. Older kids can interact with each other remotely; infant school children need nothing more than other infant school children.
My sympathies. I cannot bear to think what this is doing to kids age 3-10. It is bad enough for mine in their mid teens
These poor kids could lose a THIRD year of education and socialisation. Heart breaking. People who airily talk of more lockdowns and "save the old" can fuck off. I'm with Philip. This is a deadly calculus and locking down entire countries to give two more years of life to 83 year olds or to spare the poor obese anti vaxxers is not an obviously winning policy, for me
Shutting schools was a complete and utter disaster. It should not be contemplated again.
The damage will be with that generation for the rest of their lives.
I hope the public inquiry will dig deep into why this decision was taken the massive massive costs of doing it for a disease that clearly does not really relatively hit kids.
In all fairness, there was plenty of clamouring from parents (not me!) at the time for schools to be closed. Many parents had already acted unilaterally and taken their children out. And the unions, of course, were all for it. Not that that makes it the right decision, of course. But there was a lot of pressure to do something drastic.
Batting first was asking for trouble. There was always the chance that the humiliation would start very early and they'd be mentally done by lunch on the first day.
At least bowling they couldn't lose straight from the off and there would be a chance to get into the match.
Should have lost the toss. Didn't even get that right.
Yes, that would have solved the issue.
Playing Broad instead of Leach might also have made choosing to bowl easier.
Batting first was asking for trouble. There was always the chance that the humiliation would start very early and they'd be mentally done by lunch on the first day.
At least bowling they couldn't lose straight from the off and there would be a chance to get into the match.
Its funny how many lefties rage against Boris's lack of honesty but if I say that I don't care if some people die from Covid, that everyone dies eventually and we need to live our lives . . . then I'm attacked for not being "classy" etc
If you want honesty, how about not insulting people when they give honest answers you dislike? 🤔
I don't mind your honesty, but I think you're getting carried away to an untenable position. When you say "If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards. People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS." you seem to be welcoming mass deaths, as a way of shortening waiting lists.
I can see a case for not locking down, and I'm having dinner with half a dozen people on Saturday, so I'm not locking down myself yet. But there's a balance to be struck, and if Omicron proves wildly infectious, we need to start taking more precautions, such as wfh where possible. It does your argument a disservice if you pretend it's a no-brainer and really you don't care if large number die prematurely or not.
If that was really your position, then you would be a sociopath - albeit a notably honest sociopath.
Not a sociopath - and I was sober but angry when I wrote that. Had a couple of glasses of wine watching the Ashes now, so calmer but have had a drink now.
It is a no-brainer. People die, that's part of the circle of life, everyone dies eventually.
Viruses are natural. If some antivaxxers and vulnerable people die from natural causes then that sucks but its part of life.
Telling kids to learn from home, telling businesses to shutdown, halting life is quite simply not a price worth paying to postpone by a little while an infection that is still going to be circulating after the restrictions are lifted.
There was possibly an argument that restrictions were worthwhile pre-vaccines, to get us to a state where vaccines are available, though since that same BS is being pushed post-vaccines now I am beginning to think I was wrong to back that and that people like @contrarian who opposed it last year were right afterall. Mea culpa.
Post-vaccines it is a no brainer. Stripping years of childhood from kids who need to spend time with other infants, stripping years from teenager or adults or anyone else . . . that is really sociopathic, not being OK with nature taking its course.
South Korea reports 7,175 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase on record
France reports 59,019 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since November 2020
In the meantime, China has only reported 4,636 deaths in total, this in a nation of 1.4bn, which is the same nation where the novel coronavirus originated (and was probably created). That’s fewer deaths than Ireland, a nation of about 5m (ie a nation 300 times smaller) and about half that of Moldova, a nation of 2m (ie a nation 700 times smaller)
South Korea reports 7,175 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase on record
France reports 59,019 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since November 2020
In the meantime, China has only reported 4,636 deaths in total, this in a nation of 1.4bn, which is the same nation where the novel coronavirus originated (and was probably created). That’s fewer deaths than Ireland, a nation of about 5m (ie a nation 300 times smaller) and about half that of Moldova, a nation of 2m (ie a nation 700 times smaller)
Comments
There's also not just one Pfizer efficiency number, there are a dozen:
(1) efficiency against symptomatic infection
(2) efficiency against mild-to-moderate symptoms
(3) efficiency against serious symptoms
(4) efficiency against hospitalization
(5) efficiency against death
Plus
(1) efficiency one jab vs two vs three
(2) efficiency when combined with other vaccines
Plus
(1) Efficiency depending on time since the vaccine was administered
But yes old father time will catch up with them at some point. Perhaps not just yet though.
Is it worth sacrificing the economy AGAIN and seeding decades of poor mental health in many millions, to save these people?
It's a brutal and ugly question, but Philip is right to ask it. And I am tending towards his side of the equation
Early night then.
Given that it’s only a matter of a week or so until we have considerably more certainty, being a bit cautious in the meantime is hardly an extreme position.
First ball out.
In that case, we'd all seem to be re-picking up a cold-type virus, which would presumably help inoculate us against some or all future forms of covid, too.
Mark Waugh is my fav cricket comm, so that’s nice
As a parent we're not supposed to take our children out of school even for just a few days to have a holiday, because of the paramount importance of education. Despite the fact that seeing the world and broadening your horizons being probably a better education than a single week of school, especially in primary education.
Yet somehow they're supposed to catch up not on a few days of education, but years of it? Give over, you can not be serious!
But, if it floats yer boat. Good for you
He engenders no loyalty. It's all transactional for him.
https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1468360476010885123/photo/1
NHS booking site for booster jabs opens up to all over-40s who had their jab at least three months ago on Wednesday. Another 7m people in England invited to get their 3rd dose. This should be start of proper ramp-up, previously scheduled for next Monday.
Edit - I just messaged a friend who was booked in a couple of weeks time, apparently its now live and they managed to rebook for Thursday.
So if you are waiting, go go go.
Meantime, here’s a good article to read about severity - you’ll like the graphs. (If you have reached your article limit you can get them via John Burn-Murdoch’s thread)
https://www.ft.com/content/d315be08-cda0-462b-85ec-811290ad488e
It is the polar opposite of this account, which errs on the side of pessimism and even alarmism:
"Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
1h
6) I have seen the vaccine efficacy % drops for #Omicron. It’s not published yet, but the CDC of South Africa has presented it to White House twice now. It’s not looking good.
An IHME report with more info will be coming out soon later this week too."
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1468350443818565650?s=20
in my experience if you read both with a skeptical mind, and then choose somewhere halfway between them, that is generally a pretty good prediction
Who said 55 all out? Might not even get there.
Nonetheless hospitalisations are soaring in SA and ICUs are filling up. The problem is the damn infectivity. And the breakthrough infections.
We will know for sure in about a fortnight if we are fucked, in this wave, or not
This bastard is five times more transmissible than Delta, roughly. It is definitely worse, in that respect
No competition nor entertainment.
These poor kids could lose a THIRD year of education and socialisation. Heart breaking. People who airily talk of more lockdowns and "save the old" can fuck off. I'm with Philip. This is a deadly calculus and locking down entire countries to give two more years of life to 83 year olds or to spare the poor obese anti vaxxers is not an obviously winning policy, for me
https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1468360476010885123/photo/1
Well yeah.
According to the Dr Thingymejig video posted the other day, 76% of hospital admissions with Omicron were for reasons other than Covid. Man comes in with broken leg, gets tested, is found to have Covid, and is tagged accordingly.
Who votes for this shower? Not kids or parents by and large.
It is a government for the aged and very proud of it.
At least bowling they couldn't lose straight from the off and there would be a chance to get into the match.
The damage will be with that generation for the rest of their lives.
I hope the public inquiry will dig deep into why this decision was taken the massive massive costs of doing it for a disease that clearly does not really relatively hit kids.
Didn't even get that right.
I'd find the source but its 12.30am here so forgive me. I have some wine to finish and an episode of Masterchef to watch
The tweet I read (from some Saffer doctor) said that given the surge in hospital cases and the bad situation in SA in general, anyone going into a SA hospital now is probably going in BECAUSE of Covid. No one wants to risk catching it unless they have something REALLY serious, or they have Covid (of course)
So the hospitalisation stats are reliable indicators, tho not entirely lucid
Who to believe? It is like the early stages of a battle, the gunsmoke drifts, the armies are obscured, yet the cries of the wounded begin to pierce the mist....
Night night, PB
Oh, I now see that doesn't narrow the list too much.
Yes. The UK said "sorry you don't matter" to my shy and vulnerable older daughter, who REALLY needed school, and was doing great pre-plague (now doing not so great), and it did this so it could protect the life of my 84 year old mother, who is barely coherent most of the day and has a life expectancy of about 18 months
WTF
If I sound cold and angry, it's coz I am
I really must go and watch Masterchef. This time for real. Goodnight
Playing Broad instead of Leach might also have made choosing to bowl easier.
No! Need him in at Lunch. Preferably stumps. 50 not out would do.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10283911/Wearing-mask-better-social-distancing-scenario-study-finds.html
That's it, the first Test is already lost.
It is a no-brainer. People die, that's part of the circle of life, everyone dies eventually.
Viruses are natural. If some antivaxxers and vulnerable people die from natural causes then that sucks but its part of life.
Telling kids to learn from home, telling businesses to shutdown, halting life is quite simply not a price worth paying to postpone by a little while an infection that is still going to be circulating after the restrictions are lifted.
There was possibly an argument that restrictions were worthwhile pre-vaccines, to get us to a state where vaccines are available, though since that same BS is being pushed post-vaccines now I am beginning to think I was wrong to back that and that people like @contrarian who opposed it last year were right afterall. Mea culpa.
Post-vaccines it is a no brainer. Stripping years of childhood from kids who need to spend time with other infants, stripping years from teenager or adults or anyone else . . . that is really sociopathic, not being OK with nature taking its course.
Not good enough. Not good enough at all.
Sadly not too surprising either.
France reports 59,019 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since November 2020
- New cases: 4,031
- Average: 1,572 (+518)
- Positivity rate: 34.9% (+4.5)
- In hospital: 226 (+44)
- In ICU: 1 (-8)
- New deaths: 5
- Average: 2 (+1)
That’s some impressive quarantining, China. Bravo
Firms such as YouGov and Ipsos Mori regularly question MPs on behalf of businesses and charities to find out the opinions of policy makers.
Since the 2019 election, 123 MPs have spent 695 hours carrying out 1,040 surveys - earning more than £116,000.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-59520755
Wakes up, switches on TV in anticipation of seeing how the first session went.
Quickly goes for another half hour in bed…