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Why the Tories could lose the North Shropshire by-election – politicalbetting.com
Why the Tories could lose the North Shropshire by-election – politicalbetting.com
In face of the chaotic last six years in British politics, it can be easy to lose sight of a constant phenomenon: governing parties do not defend by-election seats very well. Since 1979, governing parties have had to defend 65 seats in parliamentary by-elections but have only managed to win just under half of them (30).
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If Australia bat first, 500 nailed on.
England 5.7 / 5.8
Draw 3.45 / 3.5
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/cricket/test-matches/australia-v-england-betting-30243023
Now maybe the postal vote will take them over the line, but...
Oh God.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lp4WnyJN4Hc
Were f##ked. We are all getting it.
Can only assume the weather forecast is worse than anticipated.
https://labourlist.org/2021/12/no-progressive-alliance-in-paterson-seat-as-labour-refuses-to-give-up-fight/
https://labourlist.org/2021/12/tory-lead-in-north-shropshire-narrowed-to-seven-points-internal-polling-suggests/
Thing about Broad he has a slight issue (his last match was in August) and they don't want him breaking down.
People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.
No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.
I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
That's 1 000 wickets.
https://twitter.com/sigallab/status/1468325159501287434
Very large drop in the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine, but the combination of vaccination plus prior infection seems to provide effective immunity (which, selfishly, is good news for me).
I built a simple model to predict governing party vote shares in by-elections and their win chances based on the following criteria:
Party’s previous general election vote share in the constituency
Current government polling numbers (change vs. last election)
Cause of the by-election (by-elections caused by the death of the incumbent tend to give slightly better results for the incumbent’s party)
Love it .. do share the model and code.
I looked at the seats from Christchurch at the top and Beaconsfield at the bottom and noted an immediate peculiarity. They all don't have LibDem MPs now.
I built a simple model to predict the probability of a LibDem win at GE 2024. I looked at the past history, current government polling, all sorts of blah, blah.
Here's the model and code
print('0')
And this is BEFORE Omicron. And France has rigid vaxport rules and the rest?
Europe is going into total lockdown, with mandatory jabs
A fair bit may ride on postal votes already cast.
I though he was only going to play three tests all along, and this is not a great pitch for him.
Do you care that millions have had their education disrupted?
Do you care that millions have had their businesses disrupted?
If a few thousand die on a daily basis that's nothing compared to millions having their education disrupted that day.
Be honest about reality. Lockdown is more harmful than some sick people dying.
Seems we were both wrong ?
England 55 all out, nailed on.
I think I’m with Prof Balloux that this could be the first of many “endemic variants”.
Root has won the toss and is going to bat. Shelled out for a BT Sport subscription for a month, didn't want to but I've never missed an Ashes since I started following Cricket downunder in the early 90s and don't want to miss my first one now.
In a way the best bet for humanity now is that Omicron IS vastly more transmissible but is also much milder, and comes to dominate very quickly, killing off this terrible Delta Wave in Europe (and, increasingly, America and beyond)
If you want honesty, how about not insulting people when they give honest answers you dislike? 🤔
Why is that person dying more important than everyone else?
For the double vaccinated and those who have had their booster it is little different to here
Also, the positive spin on this seems to be: from now on your best bet is to have three jabs AND catch the virus anyway (which might kill you or put you in hospital or give you Long Covid, who knows)
So the vaccination works best if the vaccination doesn't really work and you also get infected.
It's a hard sell
But to be fair to the pro-lockdown side, we don't know how many years of life would have been lost if we hadn't locked down. We have models, but they're pretty unreliable.
My view is that lockdown did more harm than good, measured in life-years lost. But I'd say it's impossible to prove with any certainty.
Of course dear old Mr. Fezziwig did NOT ban similar amusements for others - diff between a mensch & a grinch?
And some of them have curfews which are inexorably turning into lockdowns - eg Holland
"Netherlands: hospitals occupancy is higher than in all but the very first wave, exceeding last winter's pre-vaccination records.
85.2% adult vaccination rate.
3G #CovidPassport.
Partial lock-down, everything closes at 5pm except essentials.
The definition of "it's working"?"
https://twitter.com/sebastian_paul/status/1467857907693797381?s=20
Both my kids have been obviously mentally damaged by the lockdowns, and their educations have been disfigured.
The question I cannot answer is: would they have been better off if we'd let Covid rip? I do not know. But I certainly empathise with your position as a parent
Lay of Aus for £10 to start. Hopefully England can survive till lunch..
https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/england-tour-of-australia-1986-87-61719/australia-vs-england-1st-test-63444/full-scorecard
It is the only way to drive up vax rates without mandatory jabs. It's a horrible solution to an even more horrible problem
Strange that.
The dead can't get their lives back.
Otherwise, it's lockdown. Total and complete. Nothing moves. No one gets on, no one gets off. It is the train at Adlestrop. A stray dry cough can be heard in an otherwise silent nation
Harder to get public support for a lockdown for a milder virus, regardless of its transmissibility. Most people will simply figure “well I’m going to catch it anyway, what does it matter whether I get it it in three weeks or three months?”. Tim Spector was pondering this earlier - milder/faster is better for the individual but not necessarily for the country.
I can see a case for not locking down, and I'm having dinner with half a dozen people on Saturday, so I'm not locking down myself yet. But there's a balance to be struck, and if Omicron proves wildly infectious, we need to start taking more precautions, such as wfh where possible. It does your argument a disservice if you pretend it's a no-brainer and really you don't care if large number die prematurely or not.
If that was really your position, then you would be a sociopath - albeit a notably honest sociopath.
Kids can't get three years of their education back.
My daughter's last normal year of education was the Reception class. She's now in Year 3 and its still being disrupted. Do you expect her to get her entire Primary education "caught back up on"?
Fuck that.
It is only for the unvacinnated it is significantly different.
The Netherlands has already seen riots over its new curfew lockdowns and that rioting will get more widespread the tighter they become.
Lockdowns for the vaccinated are no longer viable without civil unrest
But people don’t dare believe the South Africans, who have been saying this for a fortnight. They don’t dare believe the Japanese, who reversed a travel ban thinking the variant milder. They don’t dare believe Fauci, who suspects the variant is less severe.
Nobody knows for sure. And the anecdotes / early data could be wrong. But there is undoubtably some reverse psychology going on.
Hopefully the best English performance of the day.
(My cousin Christine's daughter).
Strangely proud of this achievement by proxy DNA.
The best I can find (as in: most hopeful) says "not terrible"
There's also not just one Pfizer efficiency number, there are a dozen:
(1) efficiency against symptomatic infection
(2) efficiency against mild-to-moderate symptoms
(3) efficiency against serious symptoms
(4) efficiency against hospitalization
(5) efficiency against death
Plus
(1) efficiency one jab vs two vs three
(2) efficiency when combined with other vaccines
Plus
(1) Efficiency depending on time since the vaccine was administered