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Why the Tories could lose the North Shropshire by-election – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageWhy the Tories could lose the North Shropshire by-election – politicalbetting.com

In face of the chaotic last six years in British politics, it can be easy to lose sight of a constant phenomenon: governing parties do not defend by-election seats very well. Since 1979, governing parties have had to defend 65 seats in parliamentary by-elections but have only managed to win just under half of them (30).

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    First!
  • Stuart Broad out of the first test....

    If Australia bat first, 500 nailed on.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689

    Stuart Broad out of the first test....

    If Australia bat first, 500 nailed on.

    Broad been dropped?
  • Betting wise - I think we should consider that this evening revelations about revels will mean many more NShrop tories simply sit on their hands on a cold and windy thursday next week.

    Now maybe the postal vote will take them over the line, but...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    I can remember when the biggest news in the nation, for weeks, was the Death of Jill Dando

    Oh God.
  • Just watched the first episode of the Survivors from the 70s. It was like someone walking over my grave!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    I’m pretty certain the Tories will win NS due to a lab lib split vote
  • Farooq said:

    Stuart Broad out of the first test....

    If Australia bat first, 500 nailed on.

    Broad been dropped?
    Not confirmed if dropped or injury.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    Farooq said:

    Stuart Broad out of the first test....

    If Australia bat first, 500 nailed on.

    Broad been dropped?
    It seems so.
  • Everyone said Johnson would be a terrible PM and the Tory Party put him up anyway
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Pfizer jab '40 times less effective' against Omicron
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lp4WnyJN4Hc

    Were f##ked. We are all getting it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    So no Broad. Why rest Anderson?
    Can only assume the weather forecast is worse than anticipated.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    dixiedean said:

    So no Broad. Why rest Anderson?
    Can only assume the weather forecast is worse than anticipated.

    Because historically Anderson is poor at this ground and they have targeted him just playing 3 tests, of which 2 will be under lights, where his banana shaped swinging deliveries are most effective.
  • Pfizer jab '40 times less effective' against Omicron
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lp4WnyJN4Hc

    Were f##ked. We are all getting it.

    We're more fucked than a stepmom on pornhub.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    edited December 2021
  • dixiedean said:

    So no Broad. Why rest Anderson?
    Can only assume the weather forecast is worse than anticipated.

    Anderson has an injury.

    Thing about Broad he has a slight issue (his last match was in August) and they don't want him breaking down.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021

    Pfizer jab '40 times less effective' against Omicron
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lp4WnyJN4Hc

    Were f##ked. We are all getting it.

    Calm down. Perhaps another break from PB would be good for you.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.
  • Hmmm.


  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    IanB2 said:

    The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.

    Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,656

    Pfizer jab '40 times less effective' against Omicron
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lp4WnyJN4Hc

    Were f##ked. We are all getting it.

    Similar error bars to that German newspaper report on AZ efficacy.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756

    Pfizer jab '40 times less effective' against Omicron
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lp4WnyJN4Hc

    Were f##ked. We are all getting it.

    Depends how dangerous it is. No-one seems to know so far.
  • Well now.


  • RobD said:

    Pfizer jab '40 times less effective' against Omicron
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lp4WnyJN4Hc

    Were f##ked. We are all getting it.

    Similar error bars to that German newspaper report on AZ efficacy.
    And to be fair, lets not forget the original research SA did in relation to AZN....
  • glwglw Posts: 7,962

    Hmmm.


    Why are Bozo's fanboys so rubbish at defending him? How can you type something like that and think "that'll work?"
  • Wicket looks rather green.
  • I expect the Tories to poll 40-43% so the Lib Dems will have to pip that.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2021

    IanB2 said:

    The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.

    Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
    If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.

    People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.

    No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.

    I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    dixiedean said:

    So no Broad. Why rest Anderson?
    Can only assume the weather forecast is worse than anticipated.

    Because historically Anderson is poor at this ground and they have targeted him just playing 3 tests, of which 2 will be under lights, where his banana shaped swinging deliveries are most effective.
    Fair enough. Seems a big call to leave out both though.
    That's 1 000 wickets.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,331
    edited December 2021

    Pfizer jab '40 times less effective' against Omicron
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lp4WnyJN4Hc

    Were f##ked. We are all getting it.

    First lab data reported here:
    https://twitter.com/sigallab/status/1468325159501287434

    Very large drop in the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine, but the combination of vaccination plus prior infection seems to provide effective immunity (which, selfishly, is good news for me).
  • Yer gorra laff


  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088

    IanB2 said:

    The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.

    Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
    If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.

    People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.

    No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.

    I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
    Nice. Very classy.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,128

    I built a simple model to predict governing party vote shares in by-elections and their win chances based on the following criteria:

    Party’s previous general election vote share in the constituency
    Current government polling numbers (change vs. last election)
    Cause of the by-election (by-elections caused by the death of the incumbent tend to give slightly better results for the incumbent’s party)


    Love it .. do share the model and code.

    I looked at the seats from Christchurch at the top and Beaconsfield at the bottom and noted an immediate peculiarity. They all don't have LibDem MPs now.

    I built a simple model to predict the probability of a LibDem win at GE 2024. I looked at the past history, current government polling, all sorts of blah, blah.

    Here's the model and code

    print('0')
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321

    IanB2 said:

    The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.

    Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
    Not really. I am meeting my family this year, whatever. And I am sure many people feel the same.
  • Betting wise - I think we should consider that this evening revelations about revels will mean many more NShrop tories simply sit on their hands on a cold and windy thursday next week.

    Now maybe the postal vote will take them over the line, but...

    Does anyone know the state of play re: postal voting applications & returns in Ultima Salop?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    59,000 cases in France. Their second worst day ever, beaten only (I think) by one anomalous surge in the First Wave

    And this is BEFORE Omicron. And France has rigid vaxport rules and the rest?

    Europe is going into total lockdown, with mandatory jabs
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,656
    edited December 2021

    Yer gorra laff


    "no mask breach"? She's literally a mile away from the other person.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 993

    I expect the Tories to poll 40-43% so the Lib Dems will have to pip that.

    Mass abstention by Tory voters is not out of the question here. That’s all that’s needed to achieve the necessary swing.

    A fair bit may ride on postal votes already cast.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    TOPPING said:

    Pfizer jab '40 times less effective' against Omicron
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lp4WnyJN4Hc

    Were f##ked. We are all getting it.

    Calm down. Perhaps another break from PB would be good for you.
    I wasn’t expecting a new Leon quite so soon?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,331

    dixiedean said:

    So no Broad. Why rest Anderson?
    Can only assume the weather forecast is worse than anticipated.

    Anderson has an injury.
    Does he ?
    I though he was only going to play three tests all along, and this is not a great pitch for him.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    Leon said:

    59,000 cases in France. Their second worst day ever, beaten only (I think) by one anomalous surge in the First Wave

    And this is BEFORE Omicron. And France has rigid vaxport rules and the rest?

    Europe is going into total lockdown, with mandatory jabs

    Their strict measures don't seem to be working.
  • Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    So no Broad. Why rest Anderson?
    Can only assume the weather forecast is worse than anticipated.

    Anderson has an injury.
    Does he ?
    I though he was only going to play three tests all along, and this is not a great pitch for him.
    I thought I read he did.
  • IanB2 said:

    The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.

    Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
    If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.

    People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.

    No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.

    I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
    Nice. Very classy.
    Its honesty.

    Do you care that millions have had their education disrupted?

    Do you care that millions have had their businesses disrupted?

    If a few thousand die on a daily basis that's nothing compared to millions having their education disrupted that day.

    Be honest about reality. Lockdown is more harmful than some sick people dying.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004

    Betting wise - I think we should consider that this evening revelations about revels will mean many more NShrop tories simply sit on their hands on a cold and windy thursday next week.

    Now maybe the postal vote will take them over the line, but...

    Does anyone know the state of play re: postal voting applications & returns in Ultima Salop?
    We always called it Salop in our house, but what does ultima mean
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    Leon said:

    59,000 cases in France. Their second worst day ever, beaten only (I think) by one anomalous surge in the First Wave

    And this is BEFORE Omicron. And France has rigid vaxport rules and the rest?

    Europe is going into total lockdown, with mandatory jabs

    448 deaths in Germany too - ugh!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,331

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    So no Broad. Why rest Anderson?
    Can only assume the weather forecast is worse than anticipated.

    Anderson has an injury.
    Does he ?
    I though he was only going to play three tests all along, and this is not a great pitch for him.
    I thought I read he did.
    I though you’d heard something I hadn’t. :smile:

    Seems we were both wrong ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,331
    edited December 2021
    Duplicate deleted.
  • England win the toss and bat.

    England 55 all out, nailed on.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Root - we'll bat, i mean get skittled out quickly, first
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,656

    Leon said:

    59,000 cases in France. Their second worst day ever, beaten only (I think) by one anomalous surge in the First Wave

    And this is BEFORE Omicron. And France has rigid vaxport rules and the rest?

    Europe is going into total lockdown, with mandatory jabs

    448 deaths in Germany too - ugh!
    This is only OMICRON. Just wait for OMEGA.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 993
    edited December 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Pfizer jab '40 times less effective' against Omicron
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lp4WnyJN4Hc

    Were f##ked. We are all getting it.

    Depends how dangerous it is. No-one seems to know so far.
    Most scientists commenting on this study seem to think it’s good news. Much better results for 2x vax + infection than 2 vax only, which implies boosters should do a decent job. And this is just neutralising antibodies against infection, not protection against severe disease.

    I think I’m with Prof Balloux that this could be the first of many “endemic variants”.
  • Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    So no Broad. Why rest Anderson?
    Can only assume the weather forecast is worse than anticipated.

    Anderson has an injury.
    Does he ?
    I though he was only going to play three tests all along, and this is not a great pitch for him.
    I thought I read he did.
    No he's being rested I think for the second Test.

    Root has won the toss and is going to bat. Shelled out for a BT Sport subscription for a month, didn't want to but I've never missed an Ashes since I started following Cricket downunder in the early 90s and don't want to miss my first one now.
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    So no Broad. Why rest Anderson?
    Can only assume the weather forecast is worse than anticipated.

    Anderson has an injury.
    Does he ?
    I though he was only going to play three tests all along, and this is not a great pitch for him.
    I thought I read he did.
    I though you’d heard something I hadn’t. :smile:

    Seems we were both wrong ?
    Me? Wrong? That's unpossible.
  • England win the toss and bat.

    England 55 all out, nailed on.

    Your optimistic.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088

    IanB2 said:

    The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.

    Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
    If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.

    People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.

    No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.

    I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
    Nice. Very classy.
    Its honesty.

    Do you care that millions have had their education disrupted?

    Do you care that millions have had their businesses disrupted?

    If a few thousand die on a daily basis that's nothing compared to millions having their education disrupted that day.

    Be honest about reality. Lockdown is more harmful than some sick people dying.
    Not to the person dying it isn't.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    59,000 cases in France. Their second worst day ever, beaten only (I think) by one anomalous surge in the First Wave

    And this is BEFORE Omicron. And France has rigid vaxport rules and the rest?

    Europe is going into total lockdown, with mandatory jabs

    Their strict measures don't seem to be working.
    Indeed so. Hence they will surely do another total lockdown, now? They have tried everything else

    In a way the best bet for humanity now is that Omicron IS vastly more transmissible but is also much milder, and comes to dominate very quickly, killing off this terrible Delta Wave in Europe (and, increasingly, America and beyond)

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    glw said:

    Hmmm.


    Why are Bozo's fanboys so rubbish at defending him? How can you type something like that and think "that'll work?"
    Cos they've never done a proper day's work.
  • IanB2 said:

    The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.

    Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
    If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.

    People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.

    No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.

    I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
    Nice. Very classy.
    Its honesty.

    Do you care that millions have had their education disrupted?

    Do you care that millions have had their businesses disrupted?

    If a few thousand die on a daily basis that's nothing compared to millions having their education disrupted that day.

    Be honest about reality. Lockdown is more harmful than some sick people dying.
    Not to the person dying it isn't.
    Or to their families and friends.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2021
    Its funny how many lefties rage against Boris's lack of honesty but if I say that I don't care if some people die from Covid, that everyone dies eventually and we need to live our lives . . . then I'm attacked for not being "classy" etc

    If you want honesty, how about not insulting people when they give honest answers you dislike? 🤔
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,519
    edited December 2021
    Strangely, in amongst al this, there seems to be very little evidence so that Omicron is dangerous at all, so far.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,331

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    So no Broad. Why rest Anderson?
    Can only assume the weather forecast is worse than anticipated.

    Anderson has an injury.
    Does he ?
    I though he was only going to play three tests all along, and this is not a great pitch for him.
    I thought I read he did.
    I though you’d heard something I hadn’t. :smile:

    Seems we were both wrong ?
    Me? Wrong? That's unpossible.
    Perhaps you were simply misled.
  • IanB2 said:

    The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.

    Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
    If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.

    People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.

    No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.

    I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
    Nice. Very classy.
    Its honesty.

    Do you care that millions have had their education disrupted?

    Do you care that millions have had their businesses disrupted?

    If a few thousand die on a daily basis that's nothing compared to millions having their education disrupted that day.

    Be honest about reality. Lockdown is more harmful than some sick people dying.
    Not to the person dying it isn't.
    Everyone dies eventually.

    Why is that person dying more important than everyone else?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    Leon said:

    59,000 cases in France. Their second worst day ever, beaten only (I think) by one anomalous surge in the First Wave

    And this is BEFORE Omicron. And France has rigid vaxport rules and the rest?

    Europe is going into total lockdown, with mandatory jabs

    No it isn't, for Germany and Austria etc it is only vaccine passports and mandatory lockdown for the unvaccinated. Coupled with mandatory vaccinations from next year.

    For the double vaccinated and those who have had their booster it is little different to here
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,511

    IanB2 said:

    The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.

    Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
    If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.

    People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.

    No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.

    I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
    That last sentence - you're a real charmer, aren't you?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pfizer jab '40 times less effective' against Omicron
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lp4WnyJN4Hc

    Were f##ked. We are all getting it.

    Depends how dangerous it is. No-one seems to know so far.
    Most scientists commenting on this study seem to think it’s good news. Much better results for 2x vax + infection than 2 vax only, which implies boosters should do a decent job. And this is just neutralising antibodies against infection, not protection against severe disease.

    I think I’m with Prof Balloux that this could be the first of many “endemic variants”.
    Do point us to these cheerful scientists. I can't find 'em. Instead I see two other types, one is the Oh Fuck variety - "Oh fuck this is bad" - and the other is "OK this is pretty bad but it could be worse [and I don't want to scare people so I'll use calming words]"

    Also, the positive spin on this seems to be: from now on your best bet is to have three jabs AND catch the virus anyway (which might kill you or put you in hospital or give you Long Covid, who knows)

    So the vaccination works best if the vaccination doesn't really work and you also get infected.

    It's a hard sell
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,511
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    So no Broad. Why rest Anderson?
    Can only assume the weather forecast is worse than anticipated.

    Because historically Anderson is poor at this ground and they have targeted him just playing 3 tests, of which 2 will be under lights, where his banana shaped swinging deliveries are most effective.
    Fair enough. Seems a big call to leave out both though.
    That's 1 000 wickets.
    But we only need to take 20.
  • IanB2 said:

    The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.

    Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
    If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.

    People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.

    No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.

    I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
    That last sentence - you're a real charmer, aren't you?
    Which is worse: Fucking around with the education of millions, or thousands of sick people reaching the end of their natural lives?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,153

    IanB2 said:

    The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.

    Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
    If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.

    People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.

    No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.

    I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
    Nice. Very classy.
    Its honesty.

    Do you care that millions have had their education disrupted?

    Do you care that millions have had their businesses disrupted?

    If a few thousand die on a daily basis that's nothing compared to millions having their education disrupted that day.

    Be honest about reality. Lockdown is more harmful than some sick people dying.
    Not to the person dying it isn't.
    Cumulatively, more life years will be lost as a result of lockdown than as a result of covid.
    But to be fair to the pro-lockdown side, we don't know how many years of life would have been lost if we hadn't locked down. We have models, but they're pretty unreliable.
    My view is that lockdown did more harm than good, measured in life-years lost. But I'd say it's impossible to prove with any certainty.
  • Good job England bat deep......
  • Re: the Ghost of Christmas Past 2020, one thing that strikes me, is that Boris Johnson is almost the perfect caricature of Mr Fezziwig in "A Christmas Carol". Encouraging the apprentices and young clerks in the jollifications, while snogging the ladies and ladling out the punch.

    Of course dear old Mr. Fezziwig did NOT ban similar amusements for others - diff between a mensch & a grinch?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    59,000 cases in France. Their second worst day ever, beaten only (I think) by one anomalous surge in the First Wave

    And this is BEFORE Omicron. And France has rigid vaxport rules and the rest?

    Europe is going into total lockdown, with mandatory jabs

    No it isn't, for Germany and Austria etc it is only vaccine passports and mandatory lockdown for the unvaccinated. Coupled with mandatory vaccinations from next year.

    For the double vaccinated and those who have had their booster it is little different to here
    It's absolutely not the same. Nearly all these countries have mandatory vaxports, for a start. You can barely function without proof of a jab. And many of them are much stricter on mask wearing indoors and outdoors, and so on

    And some of them have curfews which are inexorably turning into lockdowns - eg Holland


    "Netherlands: hospitals occupancy is higher than in all but the very first wave, exceeding last winter's pre-vaccination records.

    85.2% adult vaccination rate.
    3G #CovidPassport.
    Partial lock-down, everything closes at 5pm except essentials.

    The definition of "it's working"?"


    https://twitter.com/sebastian_paul/status/1467857907693797381?s=20
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    Apparently government advisors are saying the government should bring in vaccine passports. (BBC News paper review).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    IanB2 said:

    The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.

    Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
    If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.

    People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.

    No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.

    I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
    That last sentence - you're a real charmer, aren't you?
    Which is worse: Fucking around with the education of millions, or thousands of sick people reaching the end of their natural lives?
    Stick to your guns. Your argument is perfectly rational, and it needs to be heard


    Both my kids have been obviously mentally damaged by the lockdowns, and their educations have been disfigured.

    The question I cannot answer is: would they have been better off if we'd let Covid rip? I do not know. But I certainly empathise with your position as a parent
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pfizer jab '40 times less effective' against Omicron
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lp4WnyJN4Hc

    Were f##ked. We are all getting it.

    Depends how dangerous it is. No-one seems to know so far.
    Most scientists commenting on this study seem to think it’s good news. Much better results for 2x vax + infection than 2 vax only, which implies boosters should do a decent job. And this is just neutralising antibodies against infection, not protection against severe disease.

    I think I’m with Prof Balloux that this could be the first of many “endemic variants”.
    Do point us to these cheerful scientists. I can't find 'em. Instead I see two other types, one is the Oh Fuck variety - "Oh fuck this is bad" - and the other is "OK this is pretty bad but it could be worse [and I don't want to scare people so I'll use calming words]"

    Also, the positive spin on this seems to be: from now on your best bet is to have three jabs AND catch the virus anyway (which might kill you or put you in hospital or give you Long Covid, who knows)

    So the vaccination works best if the vaccination doesn't really work and you also get infected.

    It's a hard sell
    You can't control whether or not you get the virus. But you can control whether or not you get vaccinated. Neutralisation via previous infection has always worked but yes it's a bit of a recursive argument.

    Lay of Aus for £10 to start. Hopefully England can survive till lunch..
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,094
    Andy_JS said:

    Apparently government advisors are saying the government should bring in vaccine passports. (BBC News paper review).

    Remember when people worried about ID cards.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Apparently government advisors are saying the government should bring in vaccine passports. (BBC News paper review).

    If O-Mike-Ron is as transmissible as thought, complete waste of time. If one infected person can infect 70-80 people in a bar, its not going to do anything.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    edited December 2021
    The last time England won at the Gabba was 19th November 1986. The England team was Broad, Athey, Gatting, Lamb, Gower, Botham, Richards, Emburey, DeFreitas, Edmonds, Dilley.

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/england-tour-of-australia-1986-87-61719/australia-vs-england-1st-test-63444/full-scorecard
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Andy_JS said:

    Apparently government advisors are saying the government should bring in vaccine passports. (BBC News paper review).

    They should have done this ten weeks ago. As I argued. Morons

    It is the only way to drive up vax rates without mandatory jabs. It's a horrible solution to an even more horrible problem
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499
    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pfizer jab '40 times less effective' against Omicron
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lp4WnyJN4Hc

    Were f##ked. We are all getting it.

    Depends how dangerous it is. No-one seems to know so far.
    Most scientists commenting on this study seem to think it’s good news. Much better results for 2x vax + infection than 2 vax only, which implies boosters should do a decent job. And this is just neutralising antibodies against infection, not protection against severe disease.

    I think I’m with Prof Balloux that this could be the first of many “endemic variants”.
    Yes, it’s been received quite calmly and with cautious optimism - outside the pages of PB.

    Strange that.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,511

    IanB2 said:

    The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.

    Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
    If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.

    People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.

    No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.

    I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
    That last sentence - you're a real charmer, aren't you?
    Which is worse: Fucking around with the education of millions, or thousands of sick people reaching the end of their natural lives?
    Kids can catch up on their education.
    The dead can't get their lives back.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Andy_JS said:

    Apparently government advisors are saying the government should bring in vaccine passports. (BBC News paper review).

    If O-Mike-Ron is as transmissible as thought, complete waste of time. If one infected person can infect 70-80 people in a bar, its not going to do anything.
    Not a complete waste of time. It could slow down the true exponential growth by a week or two. And those might be incredibly valuable weeks

    Otherwise, it's lockdown. Total and complete. Nothing moves. No one gets on, no one gets off. It is the train at Adlestrop. A stray dry cough can be heard in an otherwise silent nation
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    So no Broad. Why rest Anderson?
    Can only assume the weather forecast is worse than anticipated.

    Anderson has an injury.
    Does he ?
    I though he was only going to play three tests all along, and this is not a great pitch for him.
    I thought I read he did.
    No he's being rested I think for the second Test.

    Root has won the toss and is going to bat. Shelled out for a BT Sport subscription for a month, didn't want to but I've never missed an Ashes since I started following Cricket downunder in the early 90s and don't want to miss my first one now.
    I’m going to try to watch until drinks, but I was out at a wine bar earlier and I can already feel my eyelids growing heavy. PB is my stimulus until the action starts!
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    Can’t say I like a test with neither Broad nor Anderson in the XI
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,656

    IanB2 said:

    The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.

    Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
    If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.

    People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.

    No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.

    I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
    That last sentence - you're a real charmer, aren't you?
    Which is worse: Fucking around with the education of millions, or thousands of sick people reaching the end of their natural lives?
    Kids can catch up on their education.
    The dead can't get their lives back.
    Can they? A legitimate question.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499
    @Leon FPT

    Harder to get public support for a lockdown for a milder virus, regardless of its transmissibility. Most people will simply figure “well I’m going to catch it anyway, what does it matter whether I get it it in three weeks or three months?”. Tim Spector was pondering this earlier - milder/faster is better for the individual but not necessarily for the country.
  • Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.

    Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
    If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.

    People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.

    No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.

    I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
    That last sentence - you're a real charmer, aren't you?
    Which is worse: Fucking around with the education of millions, or thousands of sick people reaching the end of their natural lives?
    Stick to your guns. Your argument is perfectly rational, and it needs to be heard


    Both my kids have been obviously mentally damaged by the lockdowns, and their educations have been disfigured.

    The question I cannot answer is: would they have been better off if we'd let Covid rip? I do not know. But I certainly empathise with your position as a parent
    Thank you.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,920

    Its funny how many lefties rage against Boris's lack of honesty but if I say that I don't care if some people die from Covid, that everyone dies eventually and we need to live our lives . . . then I'm attacked for not being "classy" etc

    If you want honesty, how about not insulting people when they give honest answers you dislike? 🤔

    I don't mind your honesty, but I think you're getting carried away to an untenable position. When you say "If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards. People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS." you seem to be welcoming mass deaths, as a way of shortening waiting lists.

    I can see a case for not locking down, and I'm having dinner with half a dozen people on Saturday, so I'm not locking down myself yet. But there's a balance to be struck, and if Omicron proves wildly infectious, we need to start taking more precautions, such as wfh where possible. It does your argument a disservice if you pretend it's a no-brainer and really you don't care if large number die prematurely or not.

    If that was really your position, then you would be a sociopath - albeit a notably honest sociopath.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,519
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Apparently government advisors are saying the government should bring in vaccine passports. (BBC News paper review).

    If O-Mike-Ron is as transmissible as thought, complete waste of time. If one infected person can infect 70-80 people in a bar, its not going to do anything.
    Not a complete waste of time. It could slow down the true exponential growth by a week or two. And those might be incredibly valuable weeks

    Otherwise, it's lockdown. Total and complete. Nothing moves. No one gets on, no one gets off. It is the train at Adlestrop. A stray dry cough can be heard in an otherwise silent nation
    But why would you do that if it's so much significantly milder ? It seems we still have no useful working assumptions about this variant to go on at all, so far.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,656

    @Leon FPT

    Harder to get public support for a lockdown for a milder virus, regardless of its transmissibility. Most people will simply figure “well I’m going to catch it anyway, what does it matter whether I get it it in three weeks or three months?”. Tim Spector was pondering this earlier - milder/faster is better for the individual but not necessarily for the country.

    And after 18 months of this I'm sure a lot of people have pandemic fatigue. Just get it over with and stop delaying the inevitable.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552

    Pfizer jab '40 times less effective' against Omicron
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lp4WnyJN4Hc

    Were f##ked. We are all getting it.

    We're more fucked than a stepmom on pornhub.
    Please stop being so unkind to my mum
    Unkind? The way she was moaning, she was clearly having the time of her life.
  • isam said:

    Can’t say I like a test with neither Broad nor Anderson in the XI

    I think this is the last hurrah for them. England need to move on.
  • IanB2 said:

    The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.

    Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
    If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.

    People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.

    No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.

    I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
    That last sentence - you're a real charmer, aren't you?
    Which is worse: Fucking around with the education of millions, or thousands of sick people reaching the end of their natural lives?
    Kids can catch up on their education.
    The dead can't get their lives back.
    Everybody dies.

    Kids can't get three years of their education back.

    My daughter's last normal year of education was the Reception class. She's now in Year 3 and its still being disrupted. Do you expect her to get her entire Primary education "caught back up on"?

    Fuck that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    59,000 cases in France. Their second worst day ever, beaten only (I think) by one anomalous surge in the First Wave

    And this is BEFORE Omicron. And France has rigid vaxport rules and the rest?

    Europe is going into total lockdown, with mandatory jabs

    No it isn't, for Germany and Austria etc it is only vaccine passports and mandatory lockdown for the unvaccinated. Coupled with mandatory vaccinations from next year.

    For the double vaccinated and those who have had their booster it is little different to here
    It's absolutely not the same. Nearly all these countries have mandatory vaxports, for a start. You can barely function without proof of a jab. And many of them are much stricter on mask wearing indoors and outdoors, and so on

    And some of them have curfews which are inexorably turning into lockdowns - eg Holland


    "Netherlands: hospitals occupancy is higher than in all but the very first wave, exceeding last winter's pre-vaccination records.

    85.2% adult vaccination rate.
    3G #CovidPassport.
    Partial lock-down, everything closes at 5pm except essentials.

    The definition of "it's working"?"


    https://twitter.com/sebastian_paul/status/1467857907693797381?s=20
    For the double vaccinated it is largely the same, you can still go to clubs, bars, concerts, restaurants, travel freely etc showing your Vax passport.

    It is only for the unvacinnated it is significantly different.

    The Netherlands has already seen riots over its new curfew lockdowns and that rioting will get more widespread the tighter they become.

    Lockdowns for the vaccinated are no longer viable without civil unrest
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499

    Strangely, in amongst al this, there seems to be very little evidence so that Omicron is dangerous at all, so far.

    This is the elephant in the room.

    But people don’t dare believe the South Africans, who have been saying this for a fortnight. They don’t dare believe the Japanese, who reversed a travel ban thinking the variant milder. They don’t dare believe Fauci, who suspects the variant is less severe.

    Nobody knows for sure. And the anecdotes / early data could be wrong. But there is undoubtably some reverse psychology going on.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,511
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    The other aspect of this story coming out now is that it makes another pre-Xmas wobble by the big jelly in the big chair, imposing another lockdown just before we meet family and friends, completely impossible. Which may well be a big part of the motivation for whoever had the scoop.

    Risky if that is the underlying motivation....if that leads to huge numbers of extra deaths.
    If that leads to deaths then whoever dies won't be putting the NHS under pressure anymore. They will have zero NHS demands going forwards.

    People dying is a pressure valve release for the NHS.

    No more lockdowns. We did it until vaccines, but now enough is more than enough.

    I don't care if thousands die from Covid on a daily basis. No restrictions ever again.
    That last sentence - you're a real charmer, aren't you?
    Which is worse: Fucking around with the education of millions, or thousands of sick people reaching the end of their natural lives?
    Kids can catch up on their education.
    The dead can't get their lives back.
    Can they? A legitimate question.
    Yes, they can; particularly if they carry on doing some learning at home if school is closed. It's amazing how much scope there is to accelerate learning if people put their mind to it. Having said that, I have little confidence in the DfE to do what's necessary to help kids catch up. Too much reliance is placed on parents, which is obviously going to lead to very inequitable outcomes.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pfizer jab '40 times less effective' against Omicron
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lp4WnyJN4Hc

    Were f##ked. We are all getting it.

    Depends how dangerous it is. No-one seems to know so far.
    Most scientists commenting on this study seem to think it’s good news. Much better results for 2x vax + infection than 2 vax only, which implies boosters should do a decent job. And this is just neutralising antibodies against infection, not protection against severe disease.

    I think I’m with Prof Balloux that this could be the first of many “endemic variants”.
    Yes, it’s been received quite calmly and with cautious optimism - outside the pages of PB.

    Strange that.
    Again, it would be nice if you could please supply us with evidence of this "cautious optimism". Ta

    The best I can find (as in: most hopeful) says "not terrible"
This discussion has been closed.