Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Why the Conservatives could increase their majority – politicalbetting.com

135

Comments

  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    Hmm.. the return of testing to return to the UK

    Javid says “jab jab jab”. But not exactly making a convincing point as the same old arbitrary restrictions return, at huge expense. How does the travel and tourism survive?

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,374

    Travellers heading to UK will now have to have Covid test before their departure in effort to limit spread of virus, government says

    That is an excellent precaution.

    This was the sort of thing an even barely competent opposition should have been demanding days ago.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,391
    edited December 2021

    Leon said:

    I AM NEGATIVE

    The future of British lithic sex toy carving is secured

    Good news indeed. A reminder that you can still be ill and it not be Covid.
    It’s a massive fucking relief, TBH. I know I’m a terrible drama queen but if I had been positive - and the signs weren’t great, it meant, personally:

    1 Tons of bloody quarantine, and all that
    2 Long covid? Who knows?
    3 Also, that Omicron (if it had been that) can break through two jabs and a recent booster like the English pack running over Wales in the next Rugby World Cup

    In other good news, there really are hints that Omicron, however infectious, is not inducing such bad outcomes


    “A snapshot of 42 patients in the ward on 2 December 2021 reveals that 29 (70%) are not oxygen dependent. These patients are saturating well on room air and do not present with any respiratory symptoms. These are the patients that we would call ‘incidental COVID admissions’, having had another medical or surgical reason for admission. Thirteen (13) patients are dependent on supplemental oxygen of which nine (21%) have a diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia based on a combination of symptoms, clinical signs, CXR and inflammatory markers. All are being prescribed steroids as the mainstay of therapy. The remaining 4 patients are on oxygen for other medical reasons (2 previously on home oxygen, 1 in heart failure and 1 with a confirmed diagnosis of Pneumocystis Pneumonia).


    “This is a picture that has not been seen in previous waves. In the beginning of all three previous waves and throughout the course of these waves, there has always only been a sprinkling of patients on room air in the COVID ward and these patients have usually been in the recovery phase waiting for the resolution of a co-morbidity prior to discharge. The COVID ward was recognizable by the majority of patients being on some form of oxygen supplementation with the incessant sound of high flow nasal oxygen machines, or beeping ventilator alarms.”


    Please please please God this is true. Let it be true. O let it be true. Then this fucking pandemic is done and the Saffers have saved us with a super-infectious bug which does not kill. We pray


    https://www.samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-district-omicron-variant-patient-profile-early-features
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,673

    Travellers heading to UK will now have to have Covid test before their departure in effort to limit spread of virus, government says

    That is an excellent precaution.

    This was the sort of thing an even barely competent opposition should have been demanding days ago.
    In fairness to SKS he did ask for that (i think)
  • Leon said:

    I AM NEGATIVE

    The future of British lithic sex toy carving is secured

    "I AM NEGATIVE"

    Well, quite. But what we're REALLY interested in is your COVID test result.

    Maybe you caught the flu?
  • HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Michael Gove to propose US style regional governors for non urban England, with all big cities to have Mayors.

    Further devolution to counties equivalent to the powers London now has

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467063537461780481?s=20

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467064174249394177?s=20

    Where does that leave “North of Tyne”?
    Mayors for Newcastle and Tyneside, a governor for Northumbria and Durham and more powers for Northumbria and Durham councils
    The truth is the Mayor of London has very little power - is that the plan or is it more like the Mayoralty of Manchester or Newham which is in effect the political leadership of the authority? We also don't know what substantive authority any of these new "Mayors" will have - will they be free of capping for Council Tax and will they be able to access central Government money without having to jump through hoops to bid for it?
    It sounds like the new Mayors and governors would have powers equivalent to London Mayors and county councils would get powers equivalent to those of the London Assembly
    They should get powers equivalent to Scotland.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Travellers heading to UK will now have to have Covid test before their departure in effort to limit spread of virus, government says

    That is an excellent precaution.

    This was the sort of thing an even barely competent opposition should have been demanding days ago.
    Why, because foreigners are more likely to be diseased than proper British folk?
  • Leon said:

    I AM NEGATIVE

    Chin up, dude :lol:
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757

    Why would a Conservative government want to introduce this sort of pointless bureaucracy? https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cat-microchipping-to-be-made-mandatory

    This government is a right Carrie-on.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,673

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,508
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I AM NEGATIVE

    The future of British lithic sex toy carving is secured

    Good news indeed. A reminder that you can still be ill and it not be Covid.
    It’s a massive fucking relief, TBH. I know I’m a terrible drama queen but if I had been positive - and the signs weren’t great, it meant, personally:

    1 Tons of bloody quarantine, and all that
    2 Long covid? Who knows?
    3 Also, that Omicron (if it had been that) can break through two jabs and a recent booster like the English pack running over Wales in the next Rugby World Cup

    In other good news, there really are hints that Omicron, however infectious, is not inducing such bad outcomes


    “A snapshot of 42 patients in the ward on 2 December 2021 reveals that 29 (70%) are not oxygen dependent. These patients are saturating well on room air and do not present with any respiratory symptoms. These are the patients that we would call ‘incidental COVID admissions’, having had another medical or surgical reason for admission. Thirteen (13) patients are dependent on supplemental oxygen of which nine (21%) have a diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia based on a combination of symptoms, clinical signs, CXR and inflammatory markers. All are being prescribed steroids as the mainstay of therapy. The remaining 4 patients are on oxygen for other medical reasons (2 previously on home oxygen, 1 in heart failure and 1 with a confirmed diagnosis of Pneumocystis Pneumonia).


    “This is a picture that has not been seen in previous waves. In the beginning of all three previous waves and throughout the course of these waves, there has always only been a sprinkling of patients on room air in the COVID ward and these patients have usually been in the recovery phase waiting for the resolution of a co-morbidity prior to discharge. The COVID ward was recognizable by the majority of patients being on some form of oxygen supplementation with the incessant sound of high flow nasal oxygen machines, or beeping ventilator alarms.”


    Please please please God this is true. Let it be true. O let it be true. Then this fucking pandemic is done and the Saffers have saved us with a super-infectious bug which does not kill. We pray


    https://www.samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-district-omicron-variant-patient-profile-early-features
    I will speak for everyone saying It’s a relief for all of us. Me and my friend are waiting for the chance to order a double dildo.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,374
    IshmaelZ said:

    Travellers heading to UK will now have to have Covid test before their departure in effort to limit spread of virus, government says

    That is an excellent precaution.

    This was the sort of thing an even barely competent opposition should have been demanding days ago.
    Why, because foreigners are more likely to be diseased than proper British folk?
    I understand it is not just Johnny Foreigner but Billy Blighty that requires testing prior to return from far flung shores.

    Excellent call from Saj and Boris.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,888
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:



    Does the GLA have very much power? In theory, it has only scrutiny of the Mayor. The real power still lies with the Boroughs.

    The other side of this is how does any new power for County Councils sit with District/Borough Councils? I'm sure you'd support Epping Forest Conservatives against any attempt by Essex to grab any powers or responsibilities.

    Most district and borough councils would be merged with county councils to form new unitary councils, with maybe the biggest counties like Essex split into 2 or 3 unitaries.

    I would have some reservations about it but if it is balanced with some more powers for town and parish councils I would be less concerned.
    I'm far from convinced - local Government re-organisation is the hottest of potatoes in some areas. I don't know what it's like in Essex but I can tell you the stats of relations between County and District/Borough Councils in some areas would make the depths of the Cold War seem tropical and that's where you have the same party running both.

    Splitting "ancient" counties like Essex, Kent, Surrey and Hampshire into smaller bits would be as opposed and as divisive as were the 1974 re-organisations which I think were highly damaging to the Conservatives.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,067

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,508

    Travellers heading to UK will now have to have Covid test before their departure in effort to limit spread of virus, government says

    That is an excellent precaution.

    This was the sort of thing an even barely competent opposition should have been demanding days ago.
    In fairness to SKS he did ask for that (i think)
    What a day this is becoming, Big Johns going soft on Starmer!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:



    Does the GLA have very much power? In theory, it has only scrutiny of the Mayor. The real power still lies with the Boroughs.

    The other side of this is how does any new power for County Councils sit with District/Borough Councils? I'm sure you'd support Epping Forest Conservatives against any attempt by Essex to grab any powers or responsibilities.

    Most district and borough councils would be merged with county councils to form new unitary councils, with maybe the biggest counties like Essex split into 2 or 3 unitaries.

    I would have some reservations about it but if it is balanced with some more powers for town and parish councils I would be less concerned.
    I'm far from convinced - local Government re-organisation is the hottest of potatoes in some areas. I don't know what it's like in Essex but I can tell you the stats of relations between County and District/Borough Councils in some areas would make the depths of the Cold War seem tropical and that's where you have the same party running both.

    Splitting "ancient" counties like Essex, Kent, Surrey and Hampshire into smaller bits would be as opposed and as divisive as were the 1974 re-organisations which I think were highly damaging to the Conservatives.
    There aren't many things that I am very keen on, but abolishing Woking Borough Council is one of them. I couldn't give a **** how Surrey would be divided, so long as we had a single unitary authority.
  • Government to overhaul drug policy to focus on getting users healthcare

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59533858

    Not sure how well this will go down with traditional Conservative voters. I imagine if Farage wants to get back into policy, weak on immigration, weak on crime, message will hoover up some votes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,067
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:



    Does the GLA have very much power? In theory, it has only scrutiny of the Mayor. The real power still lies with the Boroughs.

    The other side of this is how does any new power for County Councils sit with District/Borough Councils? I'm sure you'd support Epping Forest Conservatives against any attempt by Essex to grab any powers or responsibilities.

    Most district and borough councils would be merged with county councils to form new unitary councils, with maybe the biggest counties like Essex split into 2 or 3 unitaries.

    I would have some reservations about it but if it is balanced with some more powers for town and parish councils I would be less concerned.
    I'm far from convinced - local Government re-organisation is the hottest of potatoes in some areas. I don't know what it's like in Essex but I can tell you the stats of relations between County and District/Borough Councils in some areas would make the depths of the Cold War seem tropical and that's where you have the same party running both.

    Splitting "ancient" counties like Essex, Kent, Surrey and Hampshire into smaller bits would be as opposed and as divisive as were the 1974 re-organisations which I think were highly damaging to the Conservatives.
    Personally I share your reservations about splitting counties.

    Better to follow counties like Cornwall and Bucks which just have 1 unitary council now with town and parish councils the only layer of local government below that
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Travellers heading to UK will now have to have Covid test before their departure in effort to limit spread of virus, government says

    That is an excellent precaution.

    This was the sort of thing an even barely competent opposition should have been demanding days ago.
    Why, because foreigners are more likely to be diseased than proper British folk?
    I understand it is not just Johnny Foreigner but Billy Blighty that requires testing prior to return from far flung shores.

    Excellent call from Saj and Boris.
    Yes, but you could in that case test Billy Blighty when s/he crosses county boundaries, say, if you didn't think he was inherently more likely to have caught something nasty in the abroad.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,391

    Leon said:

    I AM NEGATIVE

    The future of British lithic sex toy carving is secured

    Good news on the test but, honestly... you never miss an opportunity for a plug do you?
    Hahah very good
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,409
    Crumbs. Some display of snooker on BBC 2.
    A 78, 78 and 100 first three frames for.Zhao Xintong.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,374
    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,067

    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
    No. voters who were repulsed by Johnson but despised Corbyn voted LD or SNP in 2019, not Labour.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Michael Gove to propose US style regional governors for non urban England, with all big cities to have Mayors.

    Further devolution to counties equivalent to the powers London now has

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467063537461780481?s=20

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467064174249394177?s=20

    Where does that leave “North of Tyne”?
    Mayors for Newcastle and Tyneside, a governor for Northumbria and Durham and more powers for Northumbria and Durham councils
    The truth is the Mayor of London has very little power - is that the plan or is it more like the Mayoralty of Manchester or Newham which is in effect the political leadership of the authority? We also don't know what substantive authority any of these new "Mayors" will have - will they be free of capping for Council Tax and will they be able to access central Government money without having to jump through hoops to bid for it?
    It sounds like the new Mayors and governors would have powers equivalent to London Mayors and county councils would get powers equivalent to those of the London Assembly
    They should get powers equivalent to Scotland.
    Devolution doesn't work-

    Exhibit A-

    Holyrood

    A Federal Britain is what we should be aiming for.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,374
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
    No. voters who were repulsed by Johnson but despised Corbyn voted LD or SNP in 2019, not Labour.
    Why would I do that? The only way to unseat Alun Cairns was vote Labour.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,023
    rcs1000 said:

    A startling thought just occurred. What if the Labour Party in England *never* recovers? What if they are sliding into a Scottish-level extinction event? Where is England headed?

    Could the English left-of-centre simply flip over to voting Green? It nearly happened in Germany.

    There are a couple of things that make it difficult for the Greens in England and Wales:

    Firstly, their party leadership doesn't seem very interested in winning elections. Why aren't they flooding the byelections with activists? In an FPTP world, you need to be seen as a winner, and actually competing in byelections would be a great start.

    Secondly, the German Greens are basically a soft left of centre party which cares about environmental issues. In England, the Greens are Extinction Rebellion Rebranded.

    Now, could that change? Sure, and the Greens made a real effort in this year's locals, and managed to double their councillor count to 151. Next year, the local elections are more metropolitan, and there's London too. So that could be the start of something. But it's really hard for a new party to break through in an FPTP world. Don't forget the SNP only managed it on the back of success at Holyrood (where there was PR) and the independence referendum.
    " In England, the Greens are Extinction Rebellion Rebranded."

    I have to disagree. They are more Corbynite Watermelons, with environmental issues too often taking a back seat to the latest lefty fad.

    I wish they were the political wing of XR. Eco-authoritarians rather than hand-wringers.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,508
    MattW said:

    dixiedean said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    MattW said:

    dixiedean said:

    Have I got this right? The battleground for the next GE is going to be the Party Leaders' opinions of Peppa Pig World?

    Doubtless Ed Davey will sit on the fence and remain studiously neutral.

    The LD's need radical, distinctive policies which sit outside the mainstream of the Culture War.
    Expect a speech on Raa Raa the Noisy Lion.
    I know I have said it before, but it really is true and Lib Dem’s should seriously consider it. If Ed Davey had a celebrity affair with someone, people would remember his name and listen to him more.

    Who should Ed have an affair with to best help the LibDem brand? Would Gemma Collins be a good match for younger voters? Joan Collins would suggest he can attract Conservatives?
    Mummy Pig?

    I think the script call for an extramarital affair with Mummy Pig that preferably leads to a new family member.

    Peppa welcomes her little brother, Lib Dem Pig, could be a classic episode.
    Davey Pig surely? With yellow spots.

    Peppa Pig did come out in support for Gordon Browns Labour, so can’t complain about becoming a political football.
    Is Peppa Pig related to Mr Blobby? Time was when he was the key pink TV star du jour.
    Before my time, I had to google mr blobby. What the fuck did they invent that for? 😂
    You seriously need to meet Ludwig and Bod.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uk5anZMoMg0

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7vEyTK3LjM
    Nice try! First one obviously a pastiche of a public information film, I’m not falling for that it’s likely very recent made to look weird.

    I don’t know what to make of the second one other than it made me feel sick.
    You need to update your TV history hinterland, and perhaps snap judgement skills :smile: .

    Both are childrens' TV series from 1975-1977 that ran in the teatime slot. The time that also gave us the Wombles, Ivor the Engine in colour and Paddington Bear. Core childhood territory for middle aged PBers.

    Bod is unusual. Ludwig is surreal, and was based around Beethoven's Music - hence the opening Da-Da-Da-Dum.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludwig_(cartoon)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bod_(TV_series)


    Will o' the Wisp with Kenneth Williams.
    Willo the Wisp ... Evil Edna falls in love. Shades of Little Miss Bouncer (loved an announcer, down at the BBC)

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x15nbk5

    Bod was narrated by John le Measurier.
    I don’t want to sound opinionated, but you can tell the difference between those things written thinking children will like it, and those, like the original clanggers based on old stories that teach lessons, like from Anthony `de Mello books like the song of the bird,that positively holds inquisitiveness. and Does that make sense.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,123
    Leon said:

    I AM NEGATIVE

    The future of British lithic sex toy carving is secured

    Just goldbricking, then ? :smile:
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,855
    edited December 2021

    Travellers heading to UK will now have to have Covid test before their departure in effort to limit spread of virus, government says

    That is an excellent precaution.

    This was the sort of thing an even barely competent opposition should have been demanding days ago.
    Labour were, IIRC.

    Edit: yes, indeed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/04/uks-progress-on-covid-now-squandered-warns-top-scientist
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Over 900!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,888
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    I'm far from convinced - local Government re-organisation is the hottest of potatoes in some areas. I don't know what it's like in Essex but I can tell you the stats of relations between County and District/Borough Councils in some areas would make the depths of the Cold War seem tropical and that's where you have the same party running both.

    Splitting "ancient" counties like Essex, Kent, Surrey and Hampshire into smaller bits would be as opposed and as divisive as were the 1974 re-organisations which I think were highly damaging to the Conservatives.

    Personally I share your reservations about splitting counties.

    Better to follow counties like Cornwall and Bucks which just have 1 unitary council now with town and parish councils the only layer of local government below that
    I'd argue there's no one size fits all solution. Some counties already have unitary authorities in the main population centres - one example is Dorset where you now have Dorset Council but the towns of Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole have their own Unitary Council. Devon exists but you have Exeter and Plymouth as unitaries. That leaves the former County authorities ostensibly running rural and small towns.

    Is Surrey (population 1.2 million) too big to be a single Council? On the Government's previous proposals, it would be split into three.

    Traditional counties like Berkshire, Cheshire and Northamptonshire were split up and provide services more akin to London Boroughs (Newham has a population of 350,000).

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,067

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
    No. voters who were repulsed by Johnson but despised Corbyn voted LD or SNP in 2019, not Labour.
    Why would I do that? The only way to unseat Alun Cairns was vote Labour.
    If you wanted neither Boris or Corbyn to become PM obviously you would vote neither Tory nor Labour in 2019.

    In 2019 the Labour vote was down 7.9% on 2017, the LD vote was up 4.2% on 2017 and the SNP vote was up 0.8% on 2017.

    The Tory vote was up 1.2% in 2019 on 2017, so more 2017 Labour voters went LD than Tory in 2019 because of Corbyn and in Scotland the SNP vote rose while the SCon vote fell on 2017
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    rcs1000 said:

    A startling thought just occurred. What if the Labour Party in England *never* recovers? What if they are sliding into a Scottish-level extinction event? Where is England headed?

    Could the English left-of-centre simply flip over to voting Green? It nearly happened in Germany.

    There are a couple of things that make it difficult for the Greens in England and Wales:

    Firstly, their party leadership doesn't seem very interested in winning elections. Why aren't they flooding the byelections with activists? In an FPTP world, you need to be seen as a winner, and actually competing in byelections would be a great start.

    Secondly, the German Greens are basically a soft left of centre party which cares about environmental issues. In England, the Greens are Extinction Rebellion Rebranded.

    Now, could that change? Sure, and the Greens made a real effort in this year's locals, and managed to double their councillor count to 151. Next year, the local elections are more metropolitan, and there's London too. So that could be the start of something. But it's really hard for a new party to break through in an FPTP world. Don't forget the SNP only managed it on the back of success at Holyrood (where there was PR) and the independence referendum.
    " In England, the Greens are Extinction Rebellion Rebranded."

    I have to disagree. They are more Corbynite Watermelons, with environmental issues too often taking a back seat to the latest lefty fad.

    I wish they were the political wing of XR. Eco-authoritarians rather than hand-wringers.
    To me they they often appear to pretty hard core Marxists, that use 'green issues' instead of 'class struggle' as the justification to bring about there revolutionary Utopia, where they get to tell everybody what to do and how to think.

    Now I may be wrong, but that's my impression.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,374
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Travellers heading to UK will now have to have Covid test before their departure in effort to limit spread of virus, government says

    That is an excellent precaution.

    This was the sort of thing an even barely competent opposition should have been demanding days ago.
    Why, because foreigners are more likely to be diseased than proper British folk?
    I understand it is not just Johnny Foreigner but Billy Blighty that requires testing prior to return from far flung shores.

    Excellent call from Saj and Boris.
    Yes, but you could in that case test Billy Blighty when s/he crosses county boundaries, say, if you didn't think he was inherently more likely to have caught something nasty in the abroad.
    No. Make them stay on their far flung shores with their Covid rather than importing Coronavirus from a hot spot to a nation that has almost beaten Covid. We don't want travellers arriving at Heathrow riddled with Omicron before taking buses, trains and tubes home before testing themselves.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,670
    Monkeys said:

    Why would a Conservative government want to introduce this sort of pointless bureaucracy? https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cat-microchipping-to-be-made-mandatory

    This government is a right Carrie-on.
    Moggies kill at least 30 million birds a year and are causing the extinction of our only native species, so why not? At least we'll know which ones to send for liquidation to the pound.

    Might be amusing to set up a hole in the garden fence with an RFID reader so the flaming things can be tracked. Automated deterrents optional.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,391
    edited December 2021
    And right on cue here’s Sir Jeremy “lab leak is a racist conspiracy” Farrar, to piss all over my Omicron Optimistic chips

    TL;DR: we’re fucked

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/04/uks-progress-on-covid-now-squandered-warns-top-scientist?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,855
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I AM NEGATIVE

    The future of British lithic sex toy carving is secured

    Good news on the test but, honestly... you never miss an opportunity for a plug do you?
    Hahah very good
    BTW if you are in that part of the world and plague-safe, did you ever go to Abbey Dore = Dore Abbey? Mediaeval abbey turned parish church. I dimly recall local pubs and Grosmont Castle too, but Abbey Dore is quite striking. Or so it seemed to me decades ago. (No idea if open during non-worship, though.)

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,067
    edited December 2021
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    I'm far from convinced - local Government re-organisation is the hottest of potatoes in some areas. I don't know what it's like in Essex but I can tell you the stats of relations between County and District/Borough Councils in some areas would make the depths of the Cold War seem tropical and that's where you have the same party running both.

    Splitting "ancient" counties like Essex, Kent, Surrey and Hampshire into smaller bits would be as opposed and as divisive as were the 1974 re-organisations which I think were highly damaging to the Conservatives.

    Personally I share your reservations about splitting counties.

    Better to follow counties like Cornwall and Bucks which just have 1 unitary council now with town and parish councils the only layer of local government below that
    I'd argue there's no one size fits all solution. Some counties already have unitary authorities in the main population centres - one example is Dorset where you now have Dorset Council but the towns of Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole have their own Unitary Council. Devon exists but you have Exeter and Plymouth as unitaries. That leaves the former County authorities ostensibly running rural and small towns.

    Is Surrey (population 1.2 million) too big to be a single Council? On the Government's previous proposals, it would be split into three.

    Traditional counties like Berkshire, Cheshire and Northamptonshire were split up and provide services more akin to London Boroughs (Newham has a population of 350,000).

    Personally I could keep all county government, merge county and district/borough councils outside the big cities and just have town and parish councils below them. Albeit in the biggest counties there may be a few more unitaries to reflect the urban and rural split.

    Currently there are too many layers of local government outside big cities. London for example has only 2 layers of local government, the London Assembly and the boroughs, Manchester and other big cities only have 1 city council.

    In more rural counties though like Essex you mostly have 3 layers, county council, distrct/borough councils and town and parish councils
  • MaffewMaffew Posts: 235
    Went and got my booster today with my wife at a walk-in in London. All very efficient, 5 months (to the day) after our first jabs in our 30s and 20s.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Monkeys said:

    Why would a Conservative government want to introduce this sort of pointless bureaucracy? https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cat-microchipping-to-be-made-mandatory

    This government is a right Carrie-on.
    Moggies kill at least 30 million birds a year and are causing the extinction of our only native species, so why not? At least we'll know which ones to send for liquidation to the pound.

    Might be amusing to set up a hole in the garden fence with an RFID reader so the flaming things can be tracked. Automated deterrents optional.
    I believe cats find anti-freeze delicious, and it kills them stone dead.

    For God's sake keep this strictly to yourself.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,959
    Just topped up on Tom Daley for SPOTY.

    Yes Emma but she has many years to win it. This is the culmination of a career in his sport for Daley.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,855
    edited December 2021

    Monkeys said:

    Why would a Conservative government want to introduce this sort of pointless bureaucracy? https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cat-microchipping-to-be-made-mandatory

    This government is a right Carrie-on.
    Moggies kill at least 30 million birds a year and are causing the extinction of our only native species, so why not? At least we'll know which ones to send for liquidation to the pound.

    Might be amusing to set up a hole in the garden fence with an RFID reader so the flaming things can be tracked. Automated deterrents optional.
    Been to a nature reserve near Adelaide which has Inner German Border like defences to keep the mogs out. Result: wall to wall marsupials and at least some monotremes, especially at night (we glamped overnight: only two folk there). The founder wore a cat fur hat to make his point. Not popular with some folk.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,055
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    And right on cue here’s Sir Jeremy “lab leak is a racist conspiracy” Farrar, to piss all over my Omicron Optimistic chips

    TL;DR: we’re fucked

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/04/uks-progress-on-covid-now-squandered-warns-top-scientist?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Not sure where you are getting that from that article. It is just a massive moan about the likes of the UK doing lots of vaccinations ahead of developing countries and some charity women talking nonsense about booster programme.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    edited December 2021

    Labour has suspended Angela Rayner’s head of communications in an escalation of hostilities between her and Sir Keir Starmer.

    Jack McKenna, who manages the deputy leader’s relations with the media and writes her speeches, learnt of the action last night.

    He has been placed under investigation on suspicion of a personal data breach involving another Labour staff member. The party has said that the inquiry does not amount to a presumption of guilt.

    McKenna, a former aide to Jeremy Corbyn, denies the allegations. Allies of Rayner, 41, believe the suspension to be politically motivated and note that it came days after Starmer, the Labour leader, blindsided her by reshuffling the shadow cabinet while she made a speech.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/angela-rayner-aide-jack-mckenna-suspended-over-data-breach-claim-nd5wmgpml

    Well I tell you what, if this becomes a down and dirty, back alley street fight my money would be on Ange.

    SKS is more like a limp lettuce. Angie will have him for breakfast I think...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,374
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
    No. voters who were repulsed by Johnson but despised Corbyn voted LD or SNP in 2019, not Labour.
    Why would I do that? The only way to unseat Alun Cairns was vote Labour.
    If you wanted neither Boris or Corbyn to become PM obviously you would vote neither Tory nor Labour in 2019.

    In 2019 the Labour vote was down 7.9% on 2017, the LD vote was up 4.2% on 2017 and the SNP vote was up 0.8% on 2017.

    The Tory vote was up 1.2% in 2019 on 2017, so more 2017 Labour voters went LD than Tory in 2019 because of Corbyn and in Scotland the SNP vote rose while the SCon vote fell on 2017
    Some would have voted Labour in an attempt to reduce Johnson's majority on the basis that a wings-clipped Johnson was optimal compared to what we now have.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,888
    HYUFD said:


    Personally I could keep all county government, merge county and district/borough councils outside the big cities and just have town and parish councils below them. Albeit in the biggest counties there may be a few more unitaries to reflect the urban and rural split.

    Currently there are too many layers of local government outside big cities. London for example has only 2 layers of local government, the London Assembly and the boroughs, Manchester and other big cities only have 1 city council.

    In more rural counties though like Essex you mostly have 3 layers, county council, distrct/borough councils and town and parish councils

    I see what you're saying and where you have active Town and Parish Councils it's a good idea but that isn't universally the case.

    @NickPalmer would have more insight but you have Surrey County Council, Waverley District Council and Godalming Town Council in his patch. How well do the three work together? I don't know.

    If there were to be a West Surrey Council and a Godalming Town Council, would that be better or easier?

    Let me ask you, if there were a replacement unitary for south and west Essex which replaced Essex County and Epping Forest District, could Epping TC work with it?

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,023
    Two tier local government is pointless, and the split of responsibility appears to be random. For example, the district council empties the bins, but take rubbish to the tip (sorry, 'household waste recycling centre') and that is run by the county council.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,385
    So Gove is promising that the Tory government will devolve more power to areas through regional governors and city mayors. By 2030. Yeh, right.

    Surely this isn't the Tory government that has spent the last eleven years emasculating local government through savage cuts in the age of austerity?
    The Tory government that has ensured that local authorities can do little more than provide statutory services, and even struggle to finance them?
    The Tory government that has willfully ensured that voters blame service cuts on local authorities rather than on central government, particularly in Labour-run authorities that have borne the brunt of the cuts?

    Gove's chutzpah is breathtaking, though not surprising.
  • Discovery muscles in on sale of BT Sport

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/04/discovery-muscles-sale-bt-sport/

    Discovery makes a lot more sense and if I was Sky I would be somewhat concerned. The weight of Discovery and also Disney coming for your sports rights.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    edited December 2021
    Delta Poll just released

    Lab 38 (+1)
    Con 37 (-3)
    LD 10 (+2)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,067
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Personally I could keep all county government, merge county and district/borough councils outside the big cities and just have town and parish councils below them. Albeit in the biggest counties there may be a few more unitaries to reflect the urban and rural split.

    Currently there are too many layers of local government outside big cities. London for example has only 2 layers of local government, the London Assembly and the boroughs, Manchester and other big cities only have 1 city council.

    In more rural counties though like Essex you mostly have 3 layers, county council, distrct/borough councils and town and parish councils

    I see what you're saying and where you have active Town and Parish Councils it's a good idea but that isn't universally the case.

    @NickPalmer would have more insight but you have Surrey County Council, Waverley District Council and Godalming Town Council in his patch. How well do the three work together? I don't know.

    If there were to be a West Surrey Council and a Godalming Town Council, would that be better or easier?

    Let me ask you, if there were a replacement unitary for south and west Essex which replaced Essex County and Epping Forest District, could Epping TC work with it?

    Yes it could, there is not that close a relationship between TC and DC anyway so it at worst would be little different to now
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,385
    edited December 2021
    JohnO said:

    Delta Poll just released

    Lab 38 (+1)
    Con 37 (-3)
    LD 10 (+2)

    That's timely, in light of the thread header.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,876
    Starry said:

    There's no way Labour will win again. Thatcher is too popular and Labour is split between hard-left and centrist. There's no way the Tories will ever form a government. Blair and Brown are too popular. The Right are completely split anyway over Europe. A new anti-EU party will ensure they are never elected. Labour will never win again as the Left are being 'left' behind, meaning Labour are only just ahead in the polls. Nothing can change in the next few years until the next election. Yeah?

    Lib Dems will disappear as it's been over 5 years since they were in government. FIVE YEARS! Can anyone remember where they were even living then?!??

    Starmer not visiting Shropshire is no mistake. A subtle LD-Labour agreement, a la Blair/Ashdown will emerge. I predict a hung parliament with Brown's offer of instant PR imposed, ensuring the Tories will never win again (see above).

    They can go swivel with any instant change to the voting system. AV set the bar a constitutional change like that has to goto a referendum and it will get voted down. The voting system does not belong to parties or to parliament it belongs to us the people and if you want to change it you damn well better ask us if it is ok!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,067
    edited December 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
    No. voters who were repulsed by Johnson but despised Corbyn voted LD or SNP in 2019, not Labour.
    Why would I do that? The only way to unseat Alun Cairns was vote Labour.
    If you wanted neither Boris or Corbyn to become PM obviously you would vote neither Tory nor Labour in 2019.

    In 2019 the Labour vote was down 7.9% on 2017, the LD vote was up 4.2% on 2017 and the SNP vote was up 0.8% on 2017.

    The Tory vote was up 1.2% in 2019 on 2017, so more 2017 Labour voters went LD than Tory in 2019 because of Corbyn and in Scotland the SNP vote rose while the SCon vote fell on 2017
    Some would have voted Labour in an attempt to reduce Johnson's majority on the basis that a wings-clipped Johnson was optimal compared to what we now have.
    No, such Remain voters voted Labour in 2017 on the assumption Corbyn would at least oppose a hard Brexit effectively or even campaign for Remain in an EUref2.

    In 2019 they did not make that mistake again and most of them voted LD instead.

    2019's Labour vote was the Corbynite Labor hardcore, 2017 saw a Labour vote inflated by votes lent by diehard Remainers who went LD in 2019 and are now mostly back voting Starmer Labour (albeit with some Corbynites from 2019 now voting Geen)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,023
    JohnO said:

    Delta Poll just released

    Lab 38 (+1)
    Con 37 (-3)
    LD 10 (+2)

    Delta? Shouldn't that be Omicron?

    Nice numbers, mind.
  • HYUFD said:

    Michael Gove to propose US style regional governors for non urban England, with all big cities to have Mayors.

    Further devolution to counties equivalent to the powers London now has

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467063537461780481?s=20

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467064174249394177?s=20

    Peter Cushing in Star Wars (1977):

    "The regional governors now have direct control over their territories. Fear will keep the local systems in line. Fear of this battle station."
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,465
    As usual @HYUFD you’re simply not listening. Northumberland already has a “metro mayor”. Is the plan to abolish it? Its only existed for a few years.
  • dixiedean said:

    A startling thought just occurred. What if the Labour Party in England *never* recovers? What if they are sliding into a Scottish-level extinction event? Where is England headed?

    Could the English left-of-centre simply flip over to voting Green? It nearly happened in Germany.

    They are at well over 30% in every poll. A long, long way from that day.
    Jack McConnell’s Scottish Labour Party got 32% in 2007. Soon they were history.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,067
    JohnO said:

    Delta Poll just released

    Lab 38 (+1)
    Con 37 (-3)
    LD 10 (+2)

    Electoral caalculus gives Conservatives 295, Labour 267 and LDs 12 on those numbers on the new boundaries.

    So Conservatives comfortably largest party in a hung parliament but Starmer PM if he gets SNP confidence and supply

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=37&LAB=38&LIB=10&Reform=2&Green=3&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20.5&SCOTLAB=19&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,023
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
    No. voters who were repulsed by Johnson but despised Corbyn voted LD or SNP in 2019, not Labour.
    Why would I do that? The only way to unseat Alun Cairns was vote Labour.
    If you wanted neither Boris or Corbyn to become PM obviously you would vote neither Tory nor Labour in 2019.

    In 2019 the Labour vote was down 7.9% on 2017, the LD vote was up 4.2% on 2017 and the SNP vote was up 0.8% on 2017.

    The Tory vote was up 1.2% in 2019 on 2017, so more 2017 Labour voters went LD than Tory in 2019 because of Corbyn and in Scotland the SNP vote rose while the SCon vote fell on 2017
    Some would have voted Labour in an attempt to reduce Johnson's majority on the basis that a wings-clipped Johnson was optimal compared to what we now have.
    No, such Remain voters voted Labour in 2017 on the assumption Corbyn would at least oppose a hard Brexit effectively or even campaign for Remain in an EUref2.

    In 2019 they did not make that mistake again and most of them voted LD instead.

    2019's Labour vote was the Corbynite Labor hardcore, 2017 saw a Labour vote inflated by votes lent by diehard Remainers who went LD in 2019 and are now mostly back voting Starmer Labour (albeit with some Corbynites from 2019 now voting Geen)
    As I am neither the Corbynite hardcore nor a diehard Remainer my Labour vote must be something of an outlier then.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,391

    Leon said:

    And right on cue here’s Sir Jeremy “lab leak is a racist conspiracy” Farrar, to piss all over my Omicron Optimistic chips

    TL;DR: we’re fucked

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/04/uks-progress-on-covid-now-squandered-warns-top-scientist?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Not sure where you are getting that from that article. It is just a massive moan about the likes of the UK doing lots of vaccinations ahead of developing countries and some charity women talking nonsense about booster programme.
    Yes I hope you’re right. It does sound quite whiney

    I also think Farrar is deeply ashamed of his involvement in the lab leak cover-up conspiracy* and is now desperate to be squeaky clean and right-on

    *whatever your position on “lab leak” there was DEFINITELY a cover-up
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,023
    HYUFD said:

    JohnO said:

    Delta Poll just released

    Lab 38 (+1)
    Con 37 (-3)
    LD 10 (+2)

    Electoral caalculus gives Conservatives 295, Labour 267 and LDs 12 on those numbers on the new boundaries.

    So Conservatives comfortably largest party in a hung parliament but Starmer PM if he gets SNP confidence and supply

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=37&LAB=38&LIB=10&Reform=2&Green=3&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20.5&SCOTLAB=19&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
    What would be interesting under those circumstances would be whether the Tories try to cling on to office, and it taking a Vote of No Confidence to get rid of them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,067
    edited December 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
    No. voters who were repulsed by Johnson but despised Corbyn voted LD or SNP in 2019, not Labour.
    Why would I do that? The only way to unseat Alun Cairns was vote Labour.
    If you wanted neither Boris or Corbyn to become PM obviously you would vote neither Tory nor Labour in 2019.

    In 2019 the Labour vote was down 7.9% on 2017, the LD vote was up 4.2% on 2017 and the SNP vote was up 0.8% on 2017.

    The Tory vote was up 1.2% in 2019 on 2017, so more 2017 Labour voters went LD than Tory in 2019 because of Corbyn and in Scotland the SNP vote rose while the SCon vote fell on 2017
    Some would have voted Labour in an attempt to reduce Johnson's majority on the basis that a wings-clipped Johnson was optimal compared to what we now have.
    No, such Remain voters voted Labour in 2017 on the assumption Corbyn would at least oppose a hard Brexit effectively or even campaign for Remain in an EUref2.

    In 2019 they did not make that mistake again and most of them voted LD instead.

    2019's Labour vote was the Corbynite Labor hardcore, 2017 saw a Labour vote inflated by votes lent by diehard Remainers who went LD in 2019 and are now mostly back voting Starmer Labour (albeit with some Corbynites from 2019 now voting Geen)
    As I am neither the Corbynite hardcore nor a diehard Remainer my Labour vote must be something of an outlier then.

    You were a Leaver not a Remainer and almost always vote Labour so effectively you count as Corbynite hardcore, neither Tory or centrist LD Remainer.

    As you voted for Corbyn Labour in 2017 and 2019 you are certainly Corbynite hardcore
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,888
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:



    I see what you're saying and where you have active Town and Parish Councils it's a good idea but that isn't universally the case.

    @NickPalmer would have more insight but you have Surrey County Council, Waverley District Council and Godalming Town Council in his patch. How well do the three work together? I don't know.

    If there were to be a West Surrey Council and a Godalming Town Council, would that be better or easier?

    Let me ask you, if there were a replacement unitary for south and west Essex which replaced Essex County and Epping Forest District, could Epping TC work with it?

    Yes it could, there is not that close a relationship between TC and DC anyway so it at worst would be little different to now
    I suppose the key would be where the authority and responsibility sits. In development control issues. for example, would you want the TC to have the final say over developments in Epping or would that reside with the new unitary which would be promoting a wider development plan?

    I suppose the TC could draw up its own development plan for Epping.

    Removing the anomalies within service provision would be an advantage and of course there's the thorny issue of the rather nice Epping Forest DC headquarters building and what should happen to that.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,795
    Leon said:

    I AM NEGATIVE

    The future of British lithic sex toy carving is secured

    Just a wimp then.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,209
    edited December 2021
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I AM NEGATIVE

    The future of British lithic sex toy carving is secured

    Good news on the test but, honestly... you never miss an opportunity for a plug do you?
    Hahah very good
    BTW if you are in that part of the world and plague-safe, did you ever go to Abbey Dore = Dore Abbey? Mediaeval abbey turned parish church. I dimly recall local pubs and Grosmont Castle too, but Abbey Dore is quite striking. Or so it seemed to me decades ago. (No idea if open during non-worship, though.)

    I suspect that that sort of place does not change in mere decades.

    They probably had Nimbys in 1452.

    Or 1066 :smile:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,067

    HYUFD said:

    JohnO said:

    Delta Poll just released

    Lab 38 (+1)
    Con 37 (-3)
    LD 10 (+2)

    Electoral caalculus gives Conservatives 295, Labour 267 and LDs 12 on those numbers on the new boundaries.

    So Conservatives comfortably largest party in a hung parliament but Starmer PM if he gets SNP confidence and supply

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=37&LAB=38&LIB=10&Reform=2&Green=3&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20.5&SCOTLAB=19&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
    What would be interesting under those circumstances would be whether the Tories try to cling on to office, and it taking a Vote of No Confidence to get rid of them.
    They would, it would take the SNP to vote down the Tories and then to make Starmer PM to remove them
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,385
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
    No. voters who were repulsed by Johnson but despised Corbyn voted LD or SNP in 2019, not Labour.
    Why would I do that? The only way to unseat Alun Cairns was vote Labour.
    If you wanted neither Boris or Corbyn to become PM obviously you would vote neither Tory nor Labour in 2019.

    In 2019 the Labour vote was down 7.9% on 2017, the LD vote was up 4.2% on 2017 and the SNP vote was up 0.8% on 2017.

    The Tory vote was up 1.2% in 2019 on 2017, so more 2017 Labour voters went LD than Tory in 2019 because of Corbyn and in Scotland the SNP vote rose while the SCon vote fell on 2017
    Some would have voted Labour in an attempt to reduce Johnson's majority on the basis that a wings-clipped Johnson was optimal compared to what we now have.
    No, such Remain voters voted Labour in 2017 on the assumption Corbyn would at least oppose a hard Brexit effectively or even campaign for Remain in an EUref2.

    In 2019 they did not make that mistake again and most of them voted LD instead.

    2019's Labour vote was the Corbynite Labor hardcore, 2017 saw a Labour vote inflated by votes lent by diehard Remainers who went LD in 2019 and are now mostly back voting Starmer Labour (albeit with some Corbynites from 2019 now voting Geen)
    As I am neither the Corbynite hardcore nor a diehard Remainer my Labour vote must be something of an outlier then.

    You were a Leaver not a Remainer and almost always vote Labour so effectively you count as Corbynite hardcore, neither Tory or centrist LD Remainer.

    As you voted for Corbyn Labour in 2017 and 2019 you are certainly Corbynite hardcore
    Is 'Corbynite hardcore' some sort of socialist pornography?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
    No. voters who were repulsed by Johnson but despised Corbyn voted LD or SNP in 2019, not Labour.
    Why would I do that? The only way to unseat Alun Cairns was vote Labour.
    If you wanted neither Boris or Corbyn to become PM obviously you would vote neither Tory nor Labour in 2019.

    In 2019 the Labour vote was down 7.9% on 2017, the LD vote was up 4.2% on 2017 and the SNP vote was up 0.8% on 2017.

    The Tory vote was up 1.2% in 2019 on 2017, so more 2017 Labour voters went LD than Tory in 2019 because of Corbyn and in Scotland the SNP vote rose while the SCon vote fell on 2017
    Some would have voted Labour in an attempt to reduce Johnson's majority on the basis that a wings-clipped Johnson was optimal compared to what we now have.
    No, such Remain voters voted Labour in 2017 on the assumption Corbyn would at least oppose a hard Brexit effectively or even campaign for Remain in an EUref2.

    In 2019 they did not make that mistake again and most of them voted LD instead.

    2019's Labour vote was the Corbynite Labor hardcore, 2017 saw a Labour vote inflated by votes lent by diehard Remainers who went LD in 2019 and are now mostly back voting Starmer Labour (albeit with some Corbynites from 2019 now voting Geen)
    OK, I'm an odd minority, but as an anti-Johnson fed up currently ex- One Nation Tory, I looked at the maths in my constituency (not Romford in 2019) and voted Labour to try for a small Conservative majority rather than the big one we got. Hey ho.

    And that was despite Jez, not because of him, and still wonder if I did the right thing. God knows what I've have done in a more decisive marginal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,067
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:



    I see what you're saying and where you have active Town and Parish Councils it's a good idea but that isn't universally the case.

    @NickPalmer would have more insight but you have Surrey County Council, Waverley District Council and Godalming Town Council in his patch. How well do the three work together? I don't know.

    If there were to be a West Surrey Council and a Godalming Town Council, would that be better or easier?

    Let me ask you, if there were a replacement unitary for south and west Essex which replaced Essex County and Epping Forest District, could Epping TC work with it?

    Yes it could, there is not that close a relationship between TC and DC anyway so it at worst would be little different to now
    I suppose the key would be where the authority and responsibility sits. In development control issues. for example, would you want the TC to have the final say over developments in Epping or would that reside with the new unitary which would be promoting a wider development plan?

    I suppose the TC could draw up its own development plan for Epping.

    Removing the anomalies within service provision would be an advantage and of course there's the thorny issue of the rather nice Epping Forest DC headquarters building and what should happen to that.
    At the moment the DC gets the final say on local plans, TC can give its input but does not get the final decision.

    You could see a more equal balance between the 2 and EFDC HQ could be part local unitary base, part expanded town council offices
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Leon said:

    And right on cue here’s Sir Jeremy “lab leak is a racist conspiracy” Farrar, to piss all over my Omicron Optimistic chips

    TL;DR: we’re fucked

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/04/uks-progress-on-covid-now-squandered-warns-top-scientist?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    What a silly article, its basically man who resigned from SAGE probably because it would not become the anti tory instalment he hoped, is in a sulk.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,067
    edited December 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
    No. voters who were repulsed by Johnson but despised Corbyn voted LD or SNP in 2019, not Labour.
    Why would I do that? The only way to unseat Alun Cairns was vote Labour.
    If you wanted neither Boris or Corbyn to become PM obviously you would vote neither Tory nor Labour in 2019.

    In 2019 the Labour vote was down 7.9% on 2017, the LD vote was up 4.2% on 2017 and the SNP vote was up 0.8% on 2017.

    The Tory vote was up 1.2% in 2019 on 2017, so more 2017 Labour voters went LD than Tory in 2019 because of Corbyn and in Scotland the SNP vote rose while the SCon vote fell on 2017
    Some would have voted Labour in an attempt to reduce Johnson's majority on the basis that a wings-clipped Johnson was optimal compared to what we now have.
    No, such Remain voters voted Labour in 2017 on the assumption Corbyn would at least oppose a hard Brexit effectively or even campaign for Remain in an EUref2.

    In 2019 they did not make that mistake again and most of them voted LD instead.

    2019's Labour vote was the Corbynite Labor hardcore, 2017 saw a Labour vote inflated by votes lent by diehard Remainers who went LD in 2019 and are now mostly back voting Starmer Labour (albeit with some Corbynites from 2019 now voting Geen)
    OK, I'm an odd minority, but as an anti-Johnson fed up currently ex- One Nation Tory, I looked at the maths in my constituency (not Romford in 2019) and voted Labour to try for a small Conservative majority rather than the big one we got. Hey ho.

    And that was despite Jez, not because of him, and still wonder if I did the right thing. God knows what I've have done in a more decisive marginal.
    Anyone who voted Corbyn in 2017 and 2019 is Corbynite hardcore, including you.

    You voted twice to make the socialist Corbyn PM, despite the anti semitism etc, you did not even go LD as an anti Johnsonite you voted full Corbyn Labour
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
    No. voters who were repulsed by Johnson but despised Corbyn voted LD or SNP in 2019, not Labour.
    Why would I do that? The only way to unseat Alun Cairns was vote Labour.
    If you wanted neither Boris or Corbyn to become PM obviously you would vote neither Tory nor Labour in 2019.

    In 2019 the Labour vote was down 7.9% on 2017, the LD vote was up 4.2% on 2017 and the SNP vote was up 0.8% on 2017.

    The Tory vote was up 1.2% in 2019 on 2017, so more 2017 Labour voters went LD than Tory in 2019 because of Corbyn and in Scotland the SNP vote rose while the SCon vote fell on 2017
    Some would have voted Labour in an attempt to reduce Johnson's majority on the basis that a wings-clipped Johnson was optimal compared to what we now have.
    No, such Remain voters voted Labour in 2017 on the assumption Corbyn would at least oppose a hard Brexit effectively or even campaign for Remain in an EUref2.

    In 2019 they did not make that mistake again and most of them voted LD instead.

    2019's Labour vote was the Corbynite Labor hardcore, 2017 saw a Labour vote inflated by votes lent by diehard Remainers who went LD in 2019 and are now mostly back voting Starmer Labour (albeit with some Corbynites from 2019 now voting Geen)
    OK, I'm an odd minority, but as an anti-Johnson fed up currently ex- One Nation Tory, I looked at the maths in my constituency (not Romford in 2019) and voted Labour to try for a small Conservative majority rather than the big one we got. Hey ho.

    LOLS - a bit too much time on PB for you Mr Romford.
  • Back home after an interesting 3 days south of the wall. Curtailed tonight's planned night out as my (10yr old) daughter has Covid. She woke up crying this morning as head and stomach both hurting. LF test was very quickly positive, nobody else in the household is +ive and we've all bee vaccinated apart from her. Currently asleep running a 38.6c fever...

    Had a fun* drive home from Sheffield including a blizzard on the A68 at Soutra. I and a transit van were one of the very few vehicles that made it across as literally everyone else got stuck. Although my Outlander is on summer tyres they're fairly fresh. AWD, Mitsubishi's electronics magic and electric motors rather than a gearbox makes putting power down in very icy conditions pretty easy.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,374
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
    No. voters who were repulsed by Johnson but despised Corbyn voted LD or SNP in 2019, not Labour.
    Why would I do that? The only way to unseat Alun Cairns was vote Labour.
    If you wanted neither Boris or Corbyn to become PM obviously you would vote neither Tory nor Labour in 2019.

    In 2019 the Labour vote was down 7.9% on 2017, the LD vote was up 4.2% on 2017 and the SNP vote was up 0.8% on 2017.

    The Tory vote was up 1.2% in 2019 on 2017, so more 2017 Labour voters went LD than Tory in 2019 because of Corbyn and in Scotland the SNP vote rose while the SCon vote fell on 2017
    Some would have voted Labour in an attempt to reduce Johnson's majority on the basis that a wings-clipped Johnson was optimal compared to what we now have.
    No, such Remain voters voted Labour in 2017 on the assumption Corbyn would at least oppose a hard Brexit effectively or even campaign for Remain in an EUref2.

    In 2019 they did not make that mistake again and most of them voted LD instead.

    2019's Labour vote was the Corbynite Labor hardcore, 2017 saw a Labour vote inflated by votes lent by diehard Remainers who went LD in 2019 and are now mostly back voting Starmer Labour (albeit with some Corbynites from 2019 now voting Geen)
    Well you are wrong.

    I don't believe myself to be Corbynite Labour hardcore, but I was a diehard Remainer. In the Vale of Glamorgan a vote for anyone but Labour was in essence a vote for aJohnson landslide.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
    No. voters who were repulsed by Johnson but despised Corbyn voted LD or SNP in 2019, not Labour.
    Why would I do that? The only way to unseat Alun Cairns was vote Labour.
    If you wanted neither Boris or Corbyn to become PM obviously you would vote neither Tory nor Labour in 2019.

    In 2019 the Labour vote was down 7.9% on 2017, the LD vote was up 4.2% on 2017 and the SNP vote was up 0.8% on 2017.

    The Tory vote was up 1.2% in 2019 on 2017, so more 2017 Labour voters went LD than Tory in 2019 because of Corbyn and in Scotland the SNP vote rose while the SCon vote fell on 2017
    Some would have voted Labour in an attempt to reduce Johnson's majority on the basis that a wings-clipped Johnson was optimal compared to what we now have.
    No, such Remain voters voted Labour in 2017 on the assumption Corbyn would at least oppose a hard Brexit effectively or even campaign for Remain in an EUref2.

    In 2019 they did not make that mistake again and most of them voted LD instead.

    2019's Labour vote was the Corbynite Labor hardcore, 2017 saw a Labour vote inflated by votes lent by diehard Remainers who went LD in 2019 and are now mostly back voting Starmer Labour (albeit with some Corbynites from 2019 now voting Geen)
    As I am neither the Corbynite hardcore nor a diehard Remainer my Labour vote must be something of an outlier then.

    You were a Leaver not a Remainer and almost always vote Labour so effectively you count as Corbynite hardcore, neither Tory or centrist LD Remainer.

    As you voted for Corbyn Labour in 2017 and 2019 you are certainly Corbynite hardcore
    You voted REMAIN in 2016. So you are not a real Tory.
  • Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I AM NEGATIVE

    The future of British lithic sex toy carving is secured

    Good news on the test but, honestly... you never miss an opportunity for a plug do you?
    Hahah very good
    BTW if you are in that part of the world and plague-safe, did you ever go to Abbey Dore = Dore Abbey? Mediaeval abbey turned parish church. I dimly recall local pubs and Grosmont Castle too, but Abbey Dore is quite striking. Or so it seemed to me decades ago. (No idea if open during non-worship, though.)

    I grew up here. In Hereford. And spent many many happy months and years camping and fishing (ok, i did fishing just once: too boring) and wild swimming and then, as I got older, motor biking and love making in the meadows (ok, that was just three times) and magic mushroom picking (many many times) and dropping acid (ditto) throughout south and west Herefordshire. It is an English Eden with just the right amount of Celticness. I truly adore it

    I thought I knew all the great churches, from Kilpeck to Garway to Dore to Craswall to that Italian one and yet, here we are, a stunner I never knew

    I love this place. The rivers, the rivers. The Olchon and the Monnow, the Wye and the Lugg, it is is Britain arguably at its best. Unnoticed, and yet world class. A superb landscape, and largely unspoiled
    "The Olchon and the Monnow, the Wye and the Lugg!"

    There really needs to be a (drinking?) song with this chorus.
  • StarryStarry Posts: 111
    Pagan2 said:

    Starry said:

    There's no way Labour will win again. Thatcher is too popular and Labour is split between hard-left and centrist. There's no way the Tories will ever form a government. Blair and Brown are too popular. The Right are completely split anyway over Europe. A new anti-EU party will ensure they are never elected. Labour will never win again as the Left are being 'left' behind, meaning Labour are only just ahead in the polls. Nothing can change in the next few years until the next election. Yeah?

    Lib Dems will disappear as it's been over 5 years since they were in government. FIVE YEARS! Can anyone remember where they were even living then?!??

    Starmer not visiting Shropshire is no mistake. A subtle LD-Labour agreement, a la Blair/Ashdown will emerge. I predict a hung parliament with Brown's offer of instant PR imposed, ensuring the Tories will never win again (see above).

    They can go swivel with any instant change to the voting system. AV set the bar a constitutional change like that has to goto a referendum and it will get voted down. The voting system does not belong to parties or to parliament it belongs to us the people and if you want to change it you damn well better ask us if it is ok!
    It was already offered by Brown without a referendum. Precedes AV. Unless the Supreme Court strikes it down (can't see why), a majority in the HoC, especially if it confers with manifestos (currently favoured by Green, LD, SNP and PC - was also favoured by Ukip), is entirely in line with the FPTP style of government. The ultimate in irony.
  • When will Starmer resign?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Leon said:

    I AM NEGATIVE

    The future of British lithic sex toy carving is secured

    You just had a cold. Anyone familiar with your hyperbolic panic about the slightest little thing should have known that from the outset.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,876
    edited December 2021
    Starry said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Starry said:

    There's no way Labour will win again. Thatcher is too popular and Labour is split between hard-left and centrist. There's no way the Tories will ever form a government. Blair and Brown are too popular. The Right are completely split anyway over Europe. A new anti-EU party will ensure they are never elected. Labour will never win again as the Left are being 'left' behind, meaning Labour are only just ahead in the polls. Nothing can change in the next few years until the next election. Yeah?

    Lib Dems will disappear as it's been over 5 years since they were in government. FIVE YEARS! Can anyone remember where they were even living then?!??

    Starmer not visiting Shropshire is no mistake. A subtle LD-Labour agreement, a la Blair/Ashdown will emerge. I predict a hung parliament with Brown's offer of instant PR imposed, ensuring the Tories will never win again (see above).

    They can go swivel with any instant change to the voting system. AV set the bar a constitutional change like that has to goto a referendum and it will get voted down. The voting system does not belong to parties or to parliament it belongs to us the people and if you want to change it you damn well better ask us if it is ok!
    It was already offered by Brown without a referendum. Precedes AV. Unless the Supreme Court strikes it down (can't see why), a majority in the HoC, especially if it confers with manifestos (currently favoured by Green, LD, SNP and PC - was also favoured by Ukip), is entirely in line with the FPTP style of government. The ultimate in irony.
    Don't care what brown offered, the av referendum sets a precedent. The voting system belongs to us not for parties to change because it gives them an advantage which is exactly what it is. You and your party only want to bring it in without referendum because you know where the electorate will tell you where to shove your preferred voting system,
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
    No. voters who were repulsed by Johnson but despised Corbyn voted LD or SNP in 2019, not Labour.
    Why would I do that? The only way to unseat Alun Cairns was vote Labour.
    If you wanted neither Boris or Corbyn to become PM obviously you would vote neither Tory nor Labour in 2019.

    In 2019 the Labour vote was down 7.9% on 2017, the LD vote was up 4.2% on 2017 and the SNP vote was up 0.8% on 2017.

    The Tory vote was up 1.2% in 2019 on 2017, so more 2017 Labour voters went LD than Tory in 2019 because of Corbyn and in Scotland the SNP vote rose while the SCon vote fell on 2017
    Some would have voted Labour in an attempt to reduce Johnson's majority on the basis that a wings-clipped Johnson was optimal compared to what we now have.
    No, such Remain voters voted Labour in 2017 on the assumption Corbyn would at least oppose a hard Brexit effectively or even campaign for Remain in an EUref2.

    In 2019 they did not make that mistake again and most of them voted LD instead.

    2019's Labour vote was the Corbynite Labor hardcore, 2017 saw a Labour vote inflated by votes lent by diehard Remainers who went LD in 2019 and are now mostly back voting Starmer Labour (albeit with some Corbynites from 2019 now voting Geen)
    OK, I'm an odd minority, but as an anti-Johnson fed up currently ex- One Nation Tory, I looked at the maths in my constituency (not Romford in 2019) and voted Labour to try for a small Conservative majority rather than the big one we got. Hey ho.

    And that was despite Jez, not because of him, and still wonder if I did the right thing. God knows what I've have done in a more decisive marginal.
    Anyone who voted Corbyn in 2017 and 2019 is Corbynite hardcore, including you.

    You voted twice to make the socialist Corbyn PM, despite the anti semitism etc, you did not even go LD as an anti Johnsonite you voted full Corbyn Labour
    Sorry for not fitting in your categories.

    But my calculation really was "two targets, one bullet, which one can I best hit from here?" In my perfect world, I'd have liked both of them to lose.

    By the way, I do hope that isn't your doorstep manner.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,667
    Interesting thread header - thanks @Philip_Thompson. Good to see the pro-Johnson view set out, even though I disagree with it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Interesting thread header - thanks @Philip_Thompson. Good to see the pro-Johnson view set out, even though I disagree with it.

    Given that one of the points is "change of leadership", I'm not sure I'd describe the thread header as setting out the pro-Johnson view.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,667

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
    No. voters who were repulsed by Johnson but despised Corbyn voted LD or SNP in 2019, not Labour.
    Why would I do that? The only way to unseat Alun Cairns was vote Labour.
    If you wanted neither Boris or Corbyn to become PM obviously you would vote neither Tory nor Labour in 2019.

    In 2019 the Labour vote was down 7.9% on 2017, the LD vote was up 4.2% on 2017 and the SNP vote was up 0.8% on 2017.

    The Tory vote was up 1.2% in 2019 on 2017, so more 2017 Labour voters went LD than Tory in 2019 because of Corbyn and in Scotland the SNP vote rose while the SCon vote fell on 2017
    Some would have voted Labour in an attempt to reduce Johnson's majority on the basis that a wings-clipped Johnson was optimal compared to what we now have.
    No, such Remain voters voted Labour in 2017 on the assumption Corbyn would at least oppose a hard Brexit effectively or even campaign for Remain in an EUref2.

    In 2019 they did not make that mistake again and most of them voted LD instead.

    2019's Labour vote was the Corbynite Labor hardcore, 2017 saw a Labour vote inflated by votes lent by diehard Remainers who went LD in 2019 and are now mostly back voting Starmer Labour (albeit with some Corbynites from 2019 now voting Geen)
    OK, I'm an odd minority, but as an anti-Johnson fed up currently ex- One Nation Tory, I looked at the maths in my constituency (not Romford in 2019) and voted Labour to try for a small Conservative majority rather than the big one we got. Hey ho.

    And that was despite Jez, not because of him, and still wonder if I did the right thing. God knows what I've have done in a more decisive marginal.
    Anyone who voted Corbyn in 2017 and 2019 is Corbynite hardcore, including you.

    You voted twice to make the socialist Corbyn PM, despite the anti semitism etc, you did not even go LD as an anti Johnsonite you voted full Corbyn Labour
    Sorry for not fitting in your categories.

    But my calculation really was "two targets, one bullet, which one can I best hit from here?" In my perfect world, I'd have liked both of them to lose.

    By the way, I do hope that isn't your doorstep manner.
    I rather hope it is his doorstep manner, and that he gets round as many doorsteps as possible in the next GE!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,667
    tlg86 said:

    Interesting thread header - thanks @Philip_Thompson. Good to see the pro-Johnson view set out, even though I disagree with it.

    Given that one of the points is "change of leadership", I'm not sure I'd describe the thread header as setting out the pro-Johnson view.
    No, fair point. I should have said pro-Tory.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,667
    edited December 2021
    Pagan2 said:

    Starry said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Starry said:

    There's no way Labour will win again. Thatcher is too popular and Labour is split between hard-left and centrist. There's no way the Tories will ever form a government. Blair and Brown are too popular. The Right are completely split anyway over Europe. A new anti-EU party will ensure they are never elected. Labour will never win again as the Left are being 'left' behind, meaning Labour are only just ahead in the polls. Nothing can change in the next few years until the next election. Yeah?

    Lib Dems will disappear as it's been over 5 years since they were in government. FIVE YEARS! Can anyone remember where they were even living then?!??

    Starmer not visiting Shropshire is no mistake. A subtle LD-Labour agreement, a la Blair/Ashdown will emerge. I predict a hung parliament with Brown's offer of instant PR imposed, ensuring the Tories will never win again (see above).

    They can go swivel with any instant change to the voting system. AV set the bar a constitutional change like that has to goto a referendum and it will get voted down. The voting system does not belong to parties or to parliament it belongs to us the people and if you want to change it you damn well better ask us if it is ok!
    It was already offered by Brown without a referendum. Precedes AV. Unless the Supreme Court strikes it down (can't see why), a majority in the HoC, especially if it confers with manifestos (currently favoured by Green, LD, SNP and PC - was also favoured by Ukip), is entirely in line with the FPTP style of government. The ultimate in irony.
    Don't care what brown offered, the av referendum sets a precedent. The voting system belongs to us not for parties to change because it gives them an advantage which is exactly what it is. You and your party only want to bring it in without referendum because you know where the electorate will tell you where to shove your preferred voting system,
    Tough. We live in a (flawed) parliamentary democracy.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,023
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
    No. voters who were repulsed by Johnson but despised Corbyn voted LD or SNP in 2019, not Labour.
    Why would I do that? The only way to unseat Alun Cairns was vote Labour.
    If you wanted neither Boris or Corbyn to become PM obviously you would vote neither Tory nor Labour in 2019.

    In 2019 the Labour vote was down 7.9% on 2017, the LD vote was up 4.2% on 2017 and the SNP vote was up 0.8% on 2017.

    The Tory vote was up 1.2% in 2019 on 2017, so more 2017 Labour voters went LD than Tory in 2019 because of Corbyn and in Scotland the SNP vote rose while the SCon vote fell on 2017
    Some would have voted Labour in an attempt to reduce Johnson's majority on the basis that a wings-clipped Johnson was optimal compared to what we now have.
    No, such Remain voters voted Labour in 2017 on the assumption Corbyn would at least oppose a hard Brexit effectively or even campaign for Remain in an EUref2.

    In 2019 they did not make that mistake again and most of them voted LD instead.

    2019's Labour vote was the Corbynite Labor hardcore, 2017 saw a Labour vote inflated by votes lent by diehard Remainers who went LD in 2019 and are now mostly back voting Starmer Labour (albeit with some Corbynites from 2019 now voting Geen)
    As I am neither the Corbynite hardcore nor a diehard Remainer my Labour vote must be something of an outlier then.

    You were a Leaver not a Remainer and almost always vote Labour so effectively you count as Corbynite hardcore, neither Tory or centrist LD Remainer.

    As you voted for Corbyn Labour in 2017 and 2019 you are certainly Corbynite hardcore
    In 2017 I voted for Hilary Benn.

    In 2019 I voted against Philip Davies.

  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,876
    edited December 2021

    Pagan2 said:

    Starry said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Starry said:

    There's no way Labour will win again. Thatcher is too popular and Labour is split between hard-left and centrist. There's no way the Tories will ever form a government. Blair and Brown are too popular. The Right are completely split anyway over Europe. A new anti-EU party will ensure they are never elected. Labour will never win again as the Left are being 'left' behind, meaning Labour are only just ahead in the polls. Nothing can change in the next few years until the next election. Yeah?

    Lib Dems will disappear as it's been over 5 years since they were in government. FIVE YEARS! Can anyone remember where they were even living then?!??

    Starmer not visiting Shropshire is no mistake. A subtle LD-Labour agreement, a la Blair/Ashdown will emerge. I predict a hung parliament with Brown's offer of instant PR imposed, ensuring the Tories will never win again (see above).

    They can go swivel with any instant change to the voting system. AV set the bar a constitutional change like that has to goto a referendum and it will get voted down. The voting system does not belong to parties or to parliament it belongs to us the people and if you want to change it you damn well better ask us if it is ok!
    It was already offered by Brown without a referendum. Precedes AV. Unless the Supreme Court strikes it down (can't see why), a majority in the HoC, especially if it confers with manifestos (currently favoured by Green, LD, SNP and PC - was also favoured by Ukip), is entirely in line with the FPTP style of government. The ultimate in irony.
    Don't care what brown offered, the av referendum sets a precedent. The voting system belongs to us not for parties to change because it gives them an advantage which is exactly what it is. You and your party only want to bring it in without referendum because you know where the electorate will tell you where to shove your preferred voting system,
    Tough. We live in a (flawed) parliamentary democracy.
    One which has used of late referendums to settle constitutional issues and therefore set the precedent. While we are at it lets have a referendum on whether we even want to live in a parliamentary democracy as pretty sure none of us were actually asked about that one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,067

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
    No. voters who were repulsed by Johnson but despised Corbyn voted LD or SNP in 2019, not Labour.
    Why would I do that? The only way to unseat Alun Cairns was vote Labour.
    If you wanted neither Boris or Corbyn to become PM obviously you would vote neither Tory nor Labour in 2019.

    In 2019 the Labour vote was down 7.9% on 2017, the LD vote was up 4.2% on 2017 and the SNP vote was up 0.8% on 2017.

    The Tory vote was up 1.2% in 2019 on 2017, so more 2017 Labour voters went LD than Tory in 2019 because of Corbyn and in Scotland the SNP vote rose while the SCon vote fell on 2017
    Some would have voted Labour in an attempt to reduce Johnson's majority on the basis that a wings-clipped Johnson was optimal compared to what we now have.
    No, such Remain voters voted Labour in 2017 on the assumption Corbyn would at least oppose a hard Brexit effectively or even campaign for Remain in an EUref2.

    In 2019 they did not make that mistake again and most of them voted LD instead.

    2019's Labour vote was the Corbynite Labor hardcore, 2017 saw a Labour vote inflated by votes lent by diehard Remainers who went LD in 2019 and are now mostly back voting Starmer Labour (albeit with some Corbynites from 2019 now voting Geen)
    OK, I'm an odd minority, but as an anti-Johnson fed up currently ex- One Nation Tory, I looked at the maths in my constituency (not Romford in 2019) and voted Labour to try for a small Conservative majority rather than the big one we got. Hey ho.

    And that was despite Jez, not because of him, and still wonder if I did the right thing. God knows what I've have done in a more decisive marginal.
    Anyone who voted Corbyn in 2017 and 2019 is Corbynite hardcore, including you.

    You voted twice to make the socialist Corbyn PM, despite the anti semitism etc, you did not even go LD as an anti Johnsonite you voted full Corbyn Labour
    Sorry for not fitting in your categories.

    But my calculation really was "two targets, one bullet, which one can I best hit from here?" In my perfect world, I'd have liked both of them to lose.

    By the way, I do hope that isn't your doorstep manner.
    If in your perfect world you wanted them both to lose you could have voted LD.

    However no, you voted full Corbyn Labour, twice, in a seat that had Corbyn won it would have given Labour an overall majority, not just cut the Tory majority.

    No Tory, One Nation or other, would ever have voted Corbyn Labour as you did, a handful of Tory One Nation Remainers may have voted LD in 2019 or CUK, not a single one would have voted for Corbyn Labour
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,067

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
    No. voters who were repulsed by Johnson but despised Corbyn voted LD or SNP in 2019, not Labour.
    Why would I do that? The only way to unseat Alun Cairns was vote Labour.
    If you wanted neither Boris or Corbyn to become PM obviously you would vote neither Tory nor Labour in 2019.

    In 2019 the Labour vote was down 7.9% on 2017, the LD vote was up 4.2% on 2017 and the SNP vote was up 0.8% on 2017.

    The Tory vote was up 1.2% in 2019 on 2017, so more 2017 Labour voters went LD than Tory in 2019 because of Corbyn and in Scotland the SNP vote rose while the SCon vote fell on 2017
    Some would have voted Labour in an attempt to reduce Johnson's majority on the basis that a wings-clipped Johnson was optimal compared to what we now have.
    No, such Remain voters voted Labour in 2017 on the assumption Corbyn would at least oppose a hard Brexit effectively or even campaign for Remain in an EUref2.

    In 2019 they did not make that mistake again and most of them voted LD instead.

    2019's Labour vote was the Corbynite Labor hardcore, 2017 saw a Labour vote inflated by votes lent by diehard Remainers who went LD in 2019 and are now mostly back voting Starmer Labour (albeit with some Corbynites from 2019 now voting Geen)
    As I am neither the Corbynite hardcore nor a diehard Remainer my Labour vote must be something of an outlier then.

    You were a Leaver not a Remainer and almost always vote Labour so effectively you count as Corbynite hardcore, neither Tory or centrist LD Remainer.

    As you voted for Corbyn Labour in 2017 and 2019 you are certainly Corbynite hardcore
    You voted REMAIN in 2016. So you are not a real Tory.
    No, plenty of Tories voted Remain, including the leader of the Tory party at the time of the 2016 referendum.

    However like him I also accepted the result
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,667

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I AM NEGATIVE

    The future of British lithic sex toy carving is secured

    Good news on the test but, honestly... you never miss an opportunity for a plug do you?
    Hahah very good
    BTW if you are in that part of the world and plague-safe, did you ever go to Abbey Dore = Dore Abbey? Mediaeval abbey turned parish church. I dimly recall local pubs and Grosmont Castle too, but Abbey Dore is quite striking. Or so it seemed to me decades ago. (No idea if open during non-worship, though.)

    I grew up here. In Hereford. And spent many many happy months and years camping and fishing (ok, i did fishing just once: too boring) and wild swimming and then, as I got older, motor biking and love making in the meadows (ok, that was just three times) and magic mushroom picking (many many times) and dropping acid (ditto) throughout south and west Herefordshire. It is an English Eden with just the right amount of Celticness. I truly adore it

    I thought I knew all the great churches, from Kilpeck to Garway to Dore to Craswall to that Italian one and yet, here we are, a stunner I never knew

    I love this place. The rivers, the rivers. The Olchon and the Monnow, the Wye and the Lugg, it is is Britain arguably at its best. Unnoticed, and yet world class. A superb landscape, and largely unspoiled
    "The Olchon and the Monnow, the Wye and the Lugg!"

    There really needs to be a (drinking?) song with this chorus.
    Sorry but Oxfordshire has the best sequence of rivers (or certainly river names):

    The Windrush, the Evenlode, and the Cherwell - all flowing serenely into the Isis.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,067

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
    No. voters who were repulsed by Johnson but despised Corbyn voted LD or SNP in 2019, not Labour.
    Why would I do that? The only way to unseat Alun Cairns was vote Labour.
    If you wanted neither Boris or Corbyn to become PM obviously you would vote neither Tory nor Labour in 2019.

    In 2019 the Labour vote was down 7.9% on 2017, the LD vote was up 4.2% on 2017 and the SNP vote was up 0.8% on 2017.

    The Tory vote was up 1.2% in 2019 on 2017, so more 2017 Labour voters went LD than Tory in 2019 because of Corbyn and in Scotland the SNP vote rose while the SCon vote fell on 2017
    Some would have voted Labour in an attempt to reduce Johnson's majority on the basis that a wings-clipped Johnson was optimal compared to what we now have.
    No, such Remain voters voted Labour in 2017 on the assumption Corbyn would at least oppose a hard Brexit effectively or even campaign for Remain in an EUref2.

    In 2019 they did not make that mistake again and most of them voted LD instead.

    2019's Labour vote was the Corbynite Labor hardcore, 2017 saw a Labour vote inflated by votes lent by diehard Remainers who went LD in 2019 and are now mostly back voting Starmer Labour (albeit with some Corbynites from 2019 now voting Geen)
    As I am neither the Corbynite hardcore nor a diehard Remainer my Labour vote must be something of an outlier then.

    You were a Leaver not a Remainer and almost always vote Labour so effectively you count as Corbynite hardcore, neither Tory or centrist LD Remainer.

    As you voted for Corbyn Labour in 2017 and 2019 you are certainly Corbynite hardcore
    In 2017 I voted for Hilary Benn.

    In 2019 I voted against Philip Davies.

    In 2017 you voted to make Corbyn PM, in 2019 you voted to make Corbyn PM
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,667
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
    No. voters who were repulsed by Johnson but despised Corbyn voted LD or SNP in 2019, not Labour.
    Why would I do that? The only way to unseat Alun Cairns was vote Labour.
    If you wanted neither Boris or Corbyn to become PM obviously you would vote neither Tory nor Labour in 2019.

    In 2019 the Labour vote was down 7.9% on 2017, the LD vote was up 4.2% on 2017 and the SNP vote was up 0.8% on 2017.

    The Tory vote was up 1.2% in 2019 on 2017, so more 2017 Labour voters went LD than Tory in 2019 because of Corbyn and in Scotland the SNP vote rose while the SCon vote fell on 2017
    Some would have voted Labour in an attempt to reduce Johnson's majority on the basis that a wings-clipped Johnson was optimal compared to what we now have.
    No, such Remain voters voted Labour in 2017 on the assumption Corbyn would at least oppose a hard Brexit effectively or even campaign for Remain in an EUref2.

    In 2019 they did not make that mistake again and most of them voted LD instead.

    2019's Labour vote was the Corbynite Labor hardcore, 2017 saw a Labour vote inflated by votes lent by diehard Remainers who went LD in 2019 and are now mostly back voting Starmer Labour (albeit with some Corbynites from 2019 now voting Geen)
    As I am neither the Corbynite hardcore nor a diehard Remainer my Labour vote must be something of an outlier then.

    You were a Leaver not a Remainer and almost always vote Labour so effectively you count as Corbynite hardcore, neither Tory or centrist LD Remainer.

    As you voted for Corbyn Labour in 2017 and 2019 you are certainly Corbynite hardcore
    In 2017 I voted for Hilary Benn.

    In 2019 I voted against Philip Davies.

    In 2017 you voted to make Corbyn PM, in 2019 you voted to make Corbyn PM
    Says the man who voted to make the current clown PM.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
    No. voters who were repulsed by Johnson but despised Corbyn voted LD or SNP in 2019, not Labour.
    Why would I do that? The only way to unseat Alun Cairns was vote Labour.
    If you wanted neither Boris or Corbyn to become PM obviously you would vote neither Tory nor Labour in 2019.

    In 2019 the Labour vote was down 7.9% on 2017, the LD vote was up 4.2% on 2017 and the SNP vote was up 0.8% on 2017.

    The Tory vote was up 1.2% in 2019 on 2017, so more 2017 Labour voters went LD than Tory in 2019 because of Corbyn and in Scotland the SNP vote rose while the SCon vote fell on 2017
    Some would have voted Labour in an attempt to reduce Johnson's majority on the basis that a wings-clipped Johnson was optimal compared to what we now have.
    No, such Remain voters voted Labour in 2017 on the assumption Corbyn would at least oppose a hard Brexit effectively or even campaign for Remain in an EUref2.

    In 2019 they did not make that mistake again and most of them voted LD instead.

    2019's Labour vote was the Corbynite Labor hardcore, 2017 saw a Labour vote inflated by votes lent by diehard Remainers who went LD in 2019 and are now mostly back voting Starmer Labour (albeit with some Corbynites from 2019 now voting Geen)
    As I am neither the Corbynite hardcore nor a diehard Remainer my Labour vote must be something of an outlier then.

    You were a Leaver not a Remainer and almost always vote Labour so effectively you count as Corbynite hardcore, neither Tory or centrist LD Remainer.

    As you voted for Corbyn Labour in 2017 and 2019 you are certainly Corbynite hardcore
    In 2017 I voted for Hilary Benn.

    In 2019 I voted against Philip Davies.

    In 2017 you voted to make Corbyn PM, in 2019 you voted to make Corbyn PM
    To be frank your viewpoints on democracy don't count for shit. You are a one-man denier of democracy and the principle of democratic accountability.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,023
    Can I just note that if Labour had won the last election we would have had a moderate centre left programme. Anything too bonkers would have been voted down by a Labour rebellion.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,374

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
    No. voters who were repulsed by Johnson but despised Corbyn voted LD or SNP in 2019, not Labour.
    Why would I do that? The only way to unseat Alun Cairns was vote Labour.
    If you wanted neither Boris or Corbyn to become PM obviously you would vote neither Tory nor Labour in 2019.

    In 2019 the Labour vote was down 7.9% on 2017, the LD vote was up 4.2% on 2017 and the SNP vote was up 0.8% on 2017.

    The Tory vote was up 1.2% in 2019 on 2017, so more 2017 Labour voters went LD than Tory in 2019 because of Corbyn and in Scotland the SNP vote rose while the SCon vote fell on 2017
    Some would have voted Labour in an attempt to reduce Johnson's majority on the basis that a wings-clipped Johnson was optimal compared to what we now have.
    No, such Remain voters voted Labour in 2017 on the assumption Corbyn would at least oppose a hard Brexit effectively or even campaign for Remain in an EUref2.

    In 2019 they did not make that mistake again and most of them voted LD instead.

    2019's Labour vote was the Corbynite Labor hardcore, 2017 saw a Labour vote inflated by votes lent by diehard Remainers who went LD in 2019 and are now mostly back voting Starmer Labour (albeit with some Corbynites from 2019 now voting Geen)
    As I am neither the Corbynite hardcore nor a diehard Remainer my Labour vote must be something of an outlier then.

    You were a Leaver not a Remainer and almost always vote Labour so effectively you count as Corbynite hardcore, neither Tory or centrist LD Remainer.

    As you voted for Corbyn Labour in 2017 and 2019 you are certainly Corbynite hardcore
    In 2017 I voted for Hilary Benn.

    In 2019 I voted against Philip Davies.

    I'd vote for Stalin if it made it more likely that Philip Davies would be unseated.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
    I am an (a) and i will definitely be turning out


    To vote anyone but Starmer


    And by the way Corbyn got 40% in 2017 nearly all from (a) unfortunately there were plenty of (b)'s within Labour and even the PLP under Corbyn
    Corbyn also got some from Remainers in b in 2017 who wanted to stop a hard Brexit, they went LD in 2019 leaving him with the Labour socialist core of 32%
    Corbyn did not have a "socialist core" of 32%. Many voters who were repulsed by Johnson held their noses and voted Labour despite Corbyn. Had May or Cameron still been Con. leader that 32% would have been more like 23% or lower.
    No. voters who were repulsed by Johnson but despised Corbyn voted LD or SNP in 2019, not Labour.
    Why would I do that? The only way to unseat Alun Cairns was vote Labour.
    If you wanted neither Boris or Corbyn to become PM obviously you would vote neither Tory nor Labour in 2019.

    In 2019 the Labour vote was down 7.9% on 2017, the LD vote was up 4.2% on 2017 and the SNP vote was up 0.8% on 2017.

    The Tory vote was up 1.2% in 2019 on 2017, so more 2017 Labour voters went LD than Tory in 2019 because of Corbyn and in Scotland the SNP vote rose while the SCon vote fell on 2017
    Some would have voted Labour in an attempt to reduce Johnson's majority on the basis that a wings-clipped Johnson was optimal compared to what we now have.
    No, such Remain voters voted Labour in 2017 on the assumption Corbyn would at least oppose a hard Brexit effectively or even campaign for Remain in an EUref2.

    In 2019 they did not make that mistake again and most of them voted LD instead.

    2019's Labour vote was the Corbynite Labor hardcore, 2017 saw a Labour vote inflated by votes lent by diehard Remainers who went LD in 2019 and are now mostly back voting Starmer Labour (albeit with some Corbynites from 2019 now voting Geen)
    As I am neither the Corbynite hardcore nor a diehard Remainer my Labour vote must be something of an outlier then.

    You were a Leaver not a Remainer and almost always vote Labour so effectively you count as Corbynite hardcore, neither Tory or centrist LD Remainer.

    As you voted for Corbyn Labour in 2017 and 2019 you are certainly Corbynite hardcore
    You voted REMAIN in 2016. So you are not a real Tory.
    No, plenty of Tories voted Remain, including the leader of the Tory party at the time of the 2016 referendum.

    However like him I also accepted the result
    Given that most Tories voted Leave in 2016, you are still not a proper Tory.
This discussion has been closed.