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Why the Conservatives could increase their majority – politicalbetting.com

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  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Hurrah, I think Verstappen has just handed the title to Sir Lewis.

    American Wresting at its best.
  • Travellers heading to UK will now have to have Covid test before their departure in effort to limit spread of virus, government says
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571

    Hurrah, I think Verstappen has just handed the title to Sir Lewis.

    Would have been a mega lap, but he was thinking with his balls, not his brain there.
    Probably needs a new gearbox (5 place penalty).
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited December 2021

    Labour has suspended Angela Rayner’s head of communications in an escalation of hostilities between her and Sir Keir Starmer.

    Jack McKenna, who manages the deputy leader’s relations with the media and writes her speeches, learnt of the action last night.

    He has been placed under investigation on suspicion of a personal data breach involving another Labour staff member. The party has said that the inquiry does not amount to a presumption of guilt.

    McKenna, a former aide to Jeremy Corbyn, denies the allegations. Allies of Rayner, 41, believe the suspension to be politically motivated and note that it came days after Starmer, the Labour leader, blindsided her by reshuffling the shadow cabinet while she made a speech.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/angela-rayner-aide-jack-mckenna-suspended-over-data-breach-claim-nd5wmgpml

    There goes another per cent or two in the polls. Hopeless.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    edited December 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    You are relying on the Lib Dems to end the Tory majority? LOL.
    In the Tory strategy memo mentioned in one of the papers a couple of months ago, that was the number one fear at CCHQ.

    No Corbyn, makes it safe for those Tories who voted Tory in 2019 to switch over to the LDs because there's no worry about Corbyn becoming PM in 2024. That helps a lot in Con/Lab marginals.

    As Philip notes, the Tories are uncoalitionable.
    Yes, but the Lib Dems are f****** useless at everything except by elections.
    At general elections these things happen organically.
    Indeed, with added Tofu. Except when they don't. Like every election since 2010.
    2010 was a freak as they were up against my boy Dave, I remember selling the Lib Dems at 98 at that election. Bizarre to think their price with SPIN at one point over 100 seats.
    It was 2015 when Dave did a real hatchet job on his erstwhile coalition partners. I see no sign that the Lib Dems have recovered yet.
    The LDs need three things:

    First, they need an issue where they can differentiate themselves, where the two main parties are in agreement, and they can carve out a niche, as happened with Iraq.

    Second, they need Labour voters to forget the coalition, and tactically vote for them.

    Third, they need there to be general annoyance with the government, manifesting itself in improved local government election results (and which allows the LibDems to portray themselves as the local challengers).

    Of these, they don't have the first. There is maybe some evidence of the second, and while LibDem local results have been improving (they gained councillors in the last three rounds of local elections), it is off a very low base.
    I think those things would help the Lib Dems, but I think you've missed the really big one:

    Would voters in Guildford prefer a Labour-SNP-LD coalition to the Tories? If the Lib Dems rule out propping up the Tories, then it's largely out of their hands as to whether such voters will vote for them.
    Well, we'll see, but don't forget the Conservatives only got 45% of the vote in Guilford last time around - and then the LibDems would have been getting into coalition with Corbyn.

    Guilford is a seat that's susceptible to a little bit of tactical voting, even if the Conservatives maintain their vote share.
    Fascinating seat in many ways. What happens to Anne Milton's vote (7.4%)? What difference will boundary changes make?

    Of course, we also don't know the extent to which voters in such seats think that the Tories may lose the election. The Lib Dems could do quite well if it looks like it won't matter how Guildford votes.
    Guilford loses a couple of very Tory villages - https://waverleyweb.org/2021/06/14/constituency-boundary-changes-on-the-way-for-your-waverley-and-guildford/

    My gut (and it's only a gut) is that the Conservatives are going to suffer in the market towns of the South East, because they feel ignored relative to the Northern seats. These were also places which usually voted Remain, albeit by relatively small margins. And it's a lot easier for a disaffected Tory to stay home when there's no risk of putting Corbyn in Number Ten.
    As someone who lives a few miles north of Guildford, they should feel happy to be ignored. Us lot in Woking have had to put up with this sort of shit for the last five years:

    https://www.woking.gov.uk/news/update-victoria-way-closure

    EDIT: road closed until the new year because of dodgy panels:

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/woking-victoria-way-road-closure-22304676
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Rona in hippos now lol
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited December 2021
    Nigelb said:

    Hurrah, I think Verstappen has just handed the title to Sir Lewis.

    Would have been a mega lap, but he was thinking with his balls, not his brain there.
    Probably needs a new gearbox (5 place penalty).
    Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

    FWIW - I think tomorrow's race is going to be a demolition derby, the track isn't good.

    Hamilton could have his own moment or two.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    "Doctors and nurses vent anger as unvaccinated Covid cases delay vital operations

    The NHS has a backlog of 5.8 million waiting for surgery and specialists are increasingly frustrated at how the unjabbed have left them unable to tackle it" (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/doctors-and-nurses-vent-anger-as-unvaccinated-covid-cases-delay-vital-operations-z3zchvv9l
  • Travellers heading to the UK will now have to have a Covid test before their departure in effort to limit spread of the virus, government has announced.

    Health Secretary Sajid Javid said the tightened requirements will come into force from 04:00 on Tuesday.

    Travellers will be required to submit evidence of a negative lateral flow or PCR test to enter.

    Currently people only need to self-isolate until they test negative within two days of arriving.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59534685
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited December 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    You are relying on the Lib Dems to end the Tory majority? LOL.
    In the Tory strategy memo mentioned in one of the papers a couple of months ago, that was the number one fear at CCHQ.

    No Corbyn, makes it safe for those Tories who voted Tory in 2019 to switch over to the LDs because there's no worry about Corbyn becoming PM in 2024. That helps a lot in Con/Lab marginals.

    As Philip notes, the Tories are uncoalitionable.
    Yes, but the Lib Dems are f****** useless at everything except by elections.
    At general elections these things happen organically.
    Indeed, with added Tofu. Except when they don't. Like every election since 2010.
    2010 was a freak as they were up against my boy Dave, I remember selling the Lib Dems at 98 at that election. Bizarre to think their price with SPIN at one point over 100 seats.
    It was 2015 when Dave did a real hatchet job on his erstwhile coalition partners. I see no sign that the Lib Dems have recovered yet.
    The LDs need three things:

    First, they need an issue where they can differentiate themselves, where the two main parties are in agreement, and they can carve out a niche, as happened with Iraq.

    Second, they need Labour voters to forget the coalition, and tactically vote for them.

    Third, they need there to be general annoyance with the government, manifesting itself in improved local government election results (and which allows the LibDems to portray themselves as the local challengers).

    Of these, they don't have the first. There is maybe some evidence of the second, and while LibDem local results have been improving (they gained councillors in the last three rounds of local elections), it is off a very low base.
    I think those things would help the Lib Dems, but I think you've missed the really big one:

    Would voters in Guildford prefer a Labour-SNP-LD coalition to the Tories? If the Lib Dems rule out propping up the Tories, then it's largely out of their hands as to whether such voters will vote for them.
    Well, we'll see, but don't forget the Conservatives only got 45% of the vote in Guilford last time around - and then the LibDems would have been getting into coalition with Corbyn.

    Guilford is a seat that's susceptible to a little bit of tactical voting, even if the Conservatives maintain their vote share.
    Fascinating seat in many ways. What happens to Anne Milton's vote (7.4%)? What difference will boundary changes make?

    Of course, we also don't know the extent to which voters in such seats think that the Tories may lose the election. The Lib Dems could do quite well if it looks like it won't matter how Guildford votes.
    Guilford loses a couple of very Tory villages - https://waverleyweb.org/2021/06/14/constituency-boundary-changes-on-the-way-for-your-waverley-and-guildford/

    My gut (and it's only a gut) is that the Conservatives are going to suffer in the market towns of the South East, because they feel ignored relative to the Northern seats. These were also places which usually voted Remain, albeit by relatively small margins. And it's a lot easier for a disaffected Tory to stay home when there's no risk of putting Corbyn in Number Ten.
    I agree with this. I have three younger cousins who are children of a dyed-in-the-wool Tory family in the Home Counties. All three are planning to do anti-Tory tactical voting , while my older cousin is still an avid Brexit supporter. If Labour are going to keep on self-defeating, I see the Tories with lots of troubles too.
  • Travellers heading to UK will now have to have Covid test before their departure in effort to limit spread of virus, government says

    ridiculous
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Nigelb said:

    Hurrah, I think Verstappen has just handed the title to Sir Lewis.

    Would have been a mega lap, but he was thinking with his balls, not his brain there.
    Probably needs a new gearbox (5 place penalty).
    Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

    FWIW - I think tomorrow's race is going to be a demolition derby, the track isn't good.

    Hamilton could have his own moment or two.
    I think Verstappen has the quicker car so it'll be a reverse of the recent races where it's been Lewis catching
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    edited December 2021

    Nigelb said:

    Hurrah, I think Verstappen has just handed the title to Sir Lewis.

    Would have been a mega lap, but he was thinking with his balls, not his brain there.
    Probably needs a new gearbox (5 place penalty).
    Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

    FWIW - I think tomorrow's race is going to be a demolition derby, the track isn't good.

    Hamilton could have his own moment or two.
    Providing he gets away cleanly, should be fine. He can be quick enough in clear air without taking silly risks.
    Though of course Verstappen could get lucky with a safety car at the right time.

    As for the track, Silverstone speeds with Monaco walls. At least one safety car near guaranteed.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274

    Travellers heading to UK will now have to have Covid test before their departure in effort to limit spread of virus, government says

    ridiculous
    Ridiculous this is only implemented 22 months into the pandemic.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    An interesting lead, but once you get to Philip admitting he’d take the other side of the 5/2 bet, it’s clear he doesn’t believe the case himself and is simply playing Devil’s advocate (as usual!).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Travellers heading to UK will now have to have Covid test before their departure in effort to limit spread of virus, government says

    ridiculous
    Ridiculous this is only implemented 22 months into the pandemic.
    Eh? It was only abandoned in October
  • rcs1000 said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    It's very hard for the LibDems to take "dozens" of seats.

    This it the LibDem target list: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    Now, exclude numbers 1 and 3, where they compete with the SNP and the Labour Party, and if you want them to win dozens, you need to move down to number 26 or 27. Those are big (10%) swings needed.

    It gets worse. Quite a few of the seats the LDs did well in in 2019 were traditional Labour-Tory seats: Wimbledon, Cities of London & Westminster, Finchley & Golders Green. Who says they won't revert to type in 2024?

    The LibDems also rely heavily on tactical voting. There are going to be some pretty big changes to the constituency boundaries next time around. That makes persuading people that the LibDem is the prime challenger to the Tories tough.

    Finally, of course, all this assumes that the LibDems are going to be doing reasonably well. They're mired in the single digits today. Now, I am more optimistic than some, simply because I don't think the Greens have really got the hang of politics in the UK, but do you really want to bet that the LDs will reach 14 or 15% next time around?
    I concur.

    One of the most consistent bluffs in the history of PB is the overestimation of LD performance. It happens every single GE, without fail. There are profound structural problems for the LDs.

    Your point about the redrawn boundaries is crucial this time round. It is a massive headache for the Lib Dems in England and the three British Nationalist parties in Scotland.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    I see Raducanu is now 1.15/1.19 for SPoTY. She was as short as 1.06 at one point.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Starry said:

    There's no way Labour will win again. Thatcher is too popular and Labour is split between hard-left and centrist. There's no way the Tories will ever form a government. Blair and Brown are too popular. The Right are completely split anyway over Europe. A new anti-EU party will ensure they are never elected. Labour will never win again as the Left are being 'left' behind, meaning Labour are only just ahead in the polls. Nothing can change in the next few years until the next election. Yeah?

    Lib Dems will disappear as it's been over 5 years since they were in government. FIVE YEARS! Can anyone remember where they were even living then?!??

    Starmer not visiting Shropshire is no mistake. A subtle LD-Labour agreement, a la Blair/Ashdown will emerge. I predict a hung parliament with Brown's offer of instant PR imposed, ensuring the Tories will never win again (see above).

    Would the SNP vote for PR?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274
    Starry said:

    There's no way Labour will win again. Thatcher is too popular and Labour is split between hard-left and centrist. There's no way the Tories will ever form a government. Blair and Brown are too popular. The Right are completely split anyway over Europe. A new anti-EU party will ensure they are never elected. Labour will never win again as the Left are being 'left' behind, meaning Labour are only just ahead in the polls. Nothing can change in the next few years until the next election. Yeah?

    Lib Dems will disappear as it's been over 5 years since they were in government. FIVE YEARS! Can anyone remember where they were even living then?!??

    Starmer not visiting Shropshire is no mistake. A subtle LD-Labour agreement, a la Blair/Ashdown will emerge. I predict a hung parliament with Brown's offer of instant PR imposed, ensuring the Tories will never win again (see above).

    I like your thinking - rather cheering on a dreary December evening.

    (Probably fantasy but one can dream.)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393
    I can see us getting into the ridiculous situation where the government tells us that we shouldn't meet up with our colleagues in the office but it is OK to meet them in the pub for a Christmas piss up.
  • tlg86 said:

    Starry said:

    There's no way Labour will win again. Thatcher is too popular and Labour is split between hard-left and centrist. There's no way the Tories will ever form a government. Blair and Brown are too popular. The Right are completely split anyway over Europe. A new anti-EU party will ensure they are never elected. Labour will never win again as the Left are being 'left' behind, meaning Labour are only just ahead in the polls. Nothing can change in the next few years until the next election. Yeah?

    Lib Dems will disappear as it's been over 5 years since they were in government. FIVE YEARS! Can anyone remember where they were even living then?!??

    Starmer not visiting Shropshire is no mistake. A subtle LD-Labour agreement, a la Blair/Ashdown will emerge. I predict a hung parliament with Brown's offer of instant PR imposed, ensuring the Tories will never win again (see above).

    Would the SNP vote for PR?
    Yes.
  • Nigeria will also be added from Monday to the red list of countries from where people arriving must quarantine in a hotel for 10 days, Mr Javid also confirmed.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,138
    tlg86 said:

    Starry said:

    There's no way Labour will win again. Thatcher is too popular and Labour is split between hard-left and centrist. There's no way the Tories will ever form a government. Blair and Brown are too popular. The Right are completely split anyway over Europe. A new anti-EU party will ensure they are never elected. Labour will never win again as the Left are being 'left' behind, meaning Labour are only just ahead in the polls. Nothing can change in the next few years until the next election. Yeah?

    Lib Dems will disappear as it's been over 5 years since they were in government. FIVE YEARS! Can anyone remember where they were even living then?!??

    Starmer not visiting Shropshire is no mistake. A subtle LD-Labour agreement, a la Blair/Ashdown will emerge. I predict a hung parliament with Brown's offer of instant PR imposed, ensuring the Tories will never win again (see above).

    Would the SNP vote for PR?
    Oh, yes. Been SNP policy for donkey's.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 755

    tlg86 said:

    Starry said:

    There's no way Labour will win again. Thatcher is too popular and Labour is split between hard-left and centrist. There's no way the Tories will ever form a government. Blair and Brown are too popular. The Right are completely split anyway over Europe. A new anti-EU party will ensure they are never elected. Labour will never win again as the Left are being 'left' behind, meaning Labour are only just ahead in the polls. Nothing can change in the next few years until the next election. Yeah?

    Lib Dems will disappear as it's been over 5 years since they were in government. FIVE YEARS! Can anyone remember where they were even living then?!??

    Starmer not visiting Shropshire is no mistake. A subtle LD-Labour agreement, a la Blair/Ashdown will emerge. I predict a hung parliament with Brown's offer of instant PR imposed, ensuring the Tories will never win again (see above).

    Would the SNP vote for PR?
    Yes.
    would the electorate?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    edited December 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    That was the most impressive element of the documentary....twitter thread.

    Peter Jackson Details How ‘Get Back’ Used Machine Learning to Restore the Beatles’ Sound and Footage
    https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1466882712862527489?s=20

    More interesting than any of that Beatles rubbish - I recently learnt (*) that Peter Jackson has a very large pre-WW2 airplane collection
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gmZ9X9Aplk
    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2021/01/peter-jackson-and-the-airplane-thief

    Edit: skip to 44 mins in the first link to see a few of them flying...

    (*) Perhaps from on here?
    As a massive Biggles fan, can I just say WOW.
    There's a big recent documentary about it somewhere.

    He's a bit anal about it - tries to rebuild using the original techniques -ish. Very English Heritage style.

    If there is £50m to spend, it is as good a thing to do as any.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Carnyx said:

    tlg86 said:

    Starry said:

    There's no way Labour will win again. Thatcher is too popular and Labour is split between hard-left and centrist. There's no way the Tories will ever form a government. Blair and Brown are too popular. The Right are completely split anyway over Europe. A new anti-EU party will ensure they are never elected. Labour will never win again as the Left are being 'left' behind, meaning Labour are only just ahead in the polls. Nothing can change in the next few years until the next election. Yeah?

    Lib Dems will disappear as it's been over 5 years since they were in government. FIVE YEARS! Can anyone remember where they were even living then?!??

    Starmer not visiting Shropshire is no mistake. A subtle LD-Labour agreement, a la Blair/Ashdown will emerge. I predict a hung parliament with Brown's offer of instant PR imposed, ensuring the Tories will never win again (see above).

    Would the SNP vote for PR?
    Oh, yes. Been SNP policy for donkey's.
    Lib Dem 2010 manifesto:

    https://www.markpack.org.uk/files/2015/01/Liberal-Democrat-manifesto-2010.pdf

    We will scrap unfair university tuition fees so everyone has the chance to get a degree, regardless of their parents’ income.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That was the most impressive element of the documentary....twitter thread.

    Peter Jackson Details How ‘Get Back’ Used Machine Learning to Restore the Beatles’ Sound and Footage
    https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1466882712862527489?s=20

    More interesting than any of that Beatles rubbish - I recently learnt (*) that Peter Jackson has a very large pre-WW2 airplane collection
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gmZ9X9Aplk
    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2021/01/peter-jackson-and-the-airplane-thief

    Edit: skip to 44 mins in the first link to see a few of them flying...

    (*) Perhaps from on here?
    As a massive Biggles fan, can I just say WOW.
    There's a big recent documentary about it somewhere.

    He's a bit anal about it - tries to rebuild using the original techniques -ish. Very English Heritage style.
    I think it's the one I linked to:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gmZ9X9Aplk
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Nigelb said:

    Hurrah, I think Verstappen has just handed the title to Sir Lewis.

    Would have been a mega lap, but he was thinking with his balls, not his brain there.
    Probably needs a new gearbox (5 place penalty).
    Max has balls? A twenty something who can’t even grow a beard?

    Hate to have been au pear constantly having to put all his toys back in the pram. 🙄
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,138
    edited December 2021
    tlg86 said:

    Carnyx said:

    tlg86 said:

    Starry said:

    There's no way Labour will win again. Thatcher is too popular and Labour is split between hard-left and centrist. There's no way the Tories will ever form a government. Blair and Brown are too popular. The Right are completely split anyway over Europe. A new anti-EU party will ensure they are never elected. Labour will never win again as the Left are being 'left' behind, meaning Labour are only just ahead in the polls. Nothing can change in the next few years until the next election. Yeah?

    Lib Dems will disappear as it's been over 5 years since they were in government. FIVE YEARS! Can anyone remember where they were even living then?!??

    Starmer not visiting Shropshire is no mistake. A subtle LD-Labour agreement, a la Blair/Ashdown will emerge. I predict a hung parliament with Brown's offer of instant PR imposed, ensuring the Tories will never win again (see above).

    Would the SNP vote for PR?
    Oh, yes. Been SNP policy for donkey's.
    Lib Dem 2010 manifesto:

    https://www.markpack.org.uk/files/2015/01/Liberal-Democrat-manifesto-2010.pdf

    We will scrap unfair university tuition fees so everyone has the chance to get a degree, regardless of their parents’ income.
    Er, different party, different country, and a policy the SNP didn't support.

    Edit: sorry, missed your likely point. But LD-Tory relationship was a formal coalition. I can't see Labour-SNP forming an actual coalition - if only because most of SLAB MSPs would instantly follow their Aberdeen colleagues and go further and join the Tories in Scotland.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274
    edited December 2021
    IanB2 said:

    Travellers heading to UK will now have to have Covid test before their departure in effort to limit spread of virus, government says

    ridiculous
    Ridiculous this is only implemented 22 months into the pandemic.
    Eh? It was only abandoned in October
    Is that true? I thought that previously it was isolate and test after arriving in the country rather than before departing for the UK.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    edited December 2021
    Starry said:

    There's no way Labour will win again. Thatcher is too popular and Labour is split between hard-left and centrist. There's no way the Tories will ever form a government. Blair and Brown are too popular. The Right are completely split anyway over Europe. A new anti-EU party will ensure they are never elected. Labour will never win again as the Left are being 'left' behind, meaning Labour are only just ahead in the polls. Nothing can change in the next few years until the next election. Yeah?

    Lib Dems will disappear as it's been over 5 years since they were in government. FIVE YEARS! Can anyone remember where they were even living then?!??

    Starmer not visiting Shropshire is no mistake. A subtle LD-Labour agreement, a la Blair/Ashdown will emerge. I predict a hung parliament with Brown's offer of instant PR imposed, ensuring the Tories will never win again (see above).

    The problem for Labour is that they seem to be getting even more unpopular in places like Nuneaton and Newcastle-under-Lyme, places they can't afford not to win if they want a majority.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Carnyx said:

    tlg86 said:

    Carnyx said:

    tlg86 said:

    Starry said:

    There's no way Labour will win again. Thatcher is too popular and Labour is split between hard-left and centrist. There's no way the Tories will ever form a government. Blair and Brown are too popular. The Right are completely split anyway over Europe. A new anti-EU party will ensure they are never elected. Labour will never win again as the Left are being 'left' behind, meaning Labour are only just ahead in the polls. Nothing can change in the next few years until the next election. Yeah?

    Lib Dems will disappear as it's been over 5 years since they were in government. FIVE YEARS! Can anyone remember where they were even living then?!??

    Starmer not visiting Shropshire is no mistake. A subtle LD-Labour agreement, a la Blair/Ashdown will emerge. I predict a hung parliament with Brown's offer of instant PR imposed, ensuring the Tories will never win again (see above).

    Would the SNP vote for PR?
    Oh, yes. Been SNP policy for donkey's.
    Lib Dem 2010 manifesto:

    https://www.markpack.org.uk/files/2015/01/Liberal-Democrat-manifesto-2010.pdf

    We will scrap unfair university tuition fees so everyone has the chance to get a degree, regardless of their parents’ income.
    Er, different party, different country, and a policy the SNP didn't support.
    Point is, just because a party has a policy, doesn't mean it will actually follow through with it.

    It's very easy to virtue signal on a subject like electoral reform when you never actually have to prove you really mean it.
  • Second, like the Tories in Fort William and Ardnamurchan.

    Edit: ok then, fourth, like the Lib Dems in Fort William and Ardnamurchan.

    I've got a long weekend booked in May in Fort William, for the MTB Downhill World Cup. First time ever I'll have been to Scotland. As long as it's a Tory and LD free zone, we should enjoy it!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    I can see us getting into the ridiculous situation where the government tells us that we shouldn't meet up with our colleagues in the office but it is OK to meet them in the pub for a Christmas piss up.

    You are describing the balanced approach 😃
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Hurrah, I think Verstappen has just handed the title to Sir Lewis.

    Would have been a mega lap, but he was thinking with his balls, not his brain there.
    Probably needs a new gearbox (5 place penalty).
    Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

    FWIW - I think tomorrow's race is going to be a demolition derby, the track isn't good.

    Hamilton could have his own moment or two.
    Providing he gets away cleanly, should be fine. He can be quick enough in clear air without taking silly risks.
    Though of course Verstappen could get lucky with a safety car at the right time.

    As for the track, Silverstone speeds with Monaco walls. At least one safety car near guaranteed.
    I hate this style of track. I understand that tarmac run-off areas lead to all sorts of problems (as an example, Verstappen a couple of races ago), and often do not punish drivers for small mistakes, but this walls-everywhere style allows no mistakes to be made, and even a small mistake can ruin a driver's race.

    Best are ones where drivers can make mistakes, but it costs them time and positions.

    Also: I know some differ, but I don't think such circuits look as good on TV as 'traditional' circuits.
  • Some on Twitter observes.

    "Governor" feels like the sort of title Oliver Cromwell would have given them. Can't we have Counts or Sheriffs instead?

    I can remember Margaret Thatcher complaining that the word “county” was inappropriate in England, as the country had never had the office of ‘count’, which was a German/Dutch title.

    Pre-Union, and for a long time post-Union, the Scottish “counties” were “shires” (in contrast to the politically separate burghs). Don’t really know the English history.
    Counties evolved from Anglo-Saxon earldoms, and earl is equivalent to a count, indeed the wife of an earl is a countess. Shire is of course possible as well, in certain contexts (such as Knight of the Shire).

    Count is actually a Latin title, from comes, companion (of the emperor). The Dutch/German title is in fact Graf
    Ta.

    I’m not quite sure what the motivation was for Margaret Thatcher’s irritation. It was late in her premiership, and by that time her default tone of voice was irritated/annoyed.

    This was long before the internet of course, and I have failed to google her words. So I am relying purely on my own memory of a brief media report approximately 32 years ago. Does anyone else remember this story?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited December 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Starry said:

    There's no way Labour will win again. Thatcher is too popular and Labour is split between hard-left and centrist. There's no way the Tories will ever form a government. Blair and Brown are too popular. The Right are completely split anyway over Europe. A new anti-EU party will ensure they are never elected. Labour will never win again as the Left are being 'left' behind, meaning Labour are only just ahead in the polls. Nothing can change in the next few years until the next election. Yeah?

    Lib Dems will disappear as it's been over 5 years since they were in government. FIVE YEARS! Can anyone remember where they were even living then?!??

    Starmer not visiting Shropshire is no mistake. A subtle LD-Labour agreement, a la Blair/Ashdown will emerge. I predict a hung parliament with Brown's offer of instant PR imposed, ensuring the Tories will never win again (see above).

    The problem for Labour is that they seem to be getting even more unpopular in places like Nuneaton and Newcastle-under-Lyme, places they can't afford not to win if they want a majority.
    I think it's actually in some of these places that the more performative types of left-bashing play particularly badly. Some may already have been disconnected from metropolitan Labour via cultural questions, but this just equals Blairite machine politics for many older voters to cap it all too.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,138
    tlg86 said:

    Carnyx said:

    tlg86 said:

    Carnyx said:

    tlg86 said:

    Starry said:

    There's no way Labour will win again. Thatcher is too popular and Labour is split between hard-left and centrist. There's no way the Tories will ever form a government. Blair and Brown are too popular. The Right are completely split anyway over Europe. A new anti-EU party will ensure they are never elected. Labour will never win again as the Left are being 'left' behind, meaning Labour are only just ahead in the polls. Nothing can change in the next few years until the next election. Yeah?

    Lib Dems will disappear as it's been over 5 years since they were in government. FIVE YEARS! Can anyone remember where they were even living then?!??

    Starmer not visiting Shropshire is no mistake. A subtle LD-Labour agreement, a la Blair/Ashdown will emerge. I predict a hung parliament with Brown's offer of instant PR imposed, ensuring the Tories will never win again (see above).

    Would the SNP vote for PR?
    Oh, yes. Been SNP policy for donkey's.
    Lib Dem 2010 manifesto:

    https://www.markpack.org.uk/files/2015/01/Liberal-Democrat-manifesto-2010.pdf

    We will scrap unfair university tuition fees so everyone has the chance to get a degree, regardless of their parents’ income.
    Er, different party, different country, and a policy the SNP didn't support.
    Point is, just because a party has a policy, doesn't mean it will actually follow through with it.

    It's very easy to virtue signal on a subject like electoral reform when you never actually have to prove you really mean it.
    On that logic you could claim that the Tories aren't serious about anything in their manifesto, for instance.

    Don't forget the Scots are very familiar with non-FPTP.

    Just added an addendum pointing out that there was a specific issue with the LDs - a formal coalition.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274

    Second, like the Tories in Fort William and Ardnamurchan.

    Edit: ok then, fourth, like the Lib Dems in Fort William and Ardnamurchan.

    I've got a long weekend booked in May in Fort William, for the MTB Downhill World Cup. First time ever I'll have been to Scotland. As long as it's a Tory and LD free zone, we should enjoy it!
    Good to see you back Twisted!
  • tlg86 said:

    Carnyx said:

    tlg86 said:

    Carnyx said:

    tlg86 said:

    Starry said:

    There's no way Labour will win again. Thatcher is too popular and Labour is split between hard-left and centrist. There's no way the Tories will ever form a government. Blair and Brown are too popular. The Right are completely split anyway over Europe. A new anti-EU party will ensure they are never elected. Labour will never win again as the Left are being 'left' behind, meaning Labour are only just ahead in the polls. Nothing can change in the next few years until the next election. Yeah?

    Lib Dems will disappear as it's been over 5 years since they were in government. FIVE YEARS! Can anyone remember where they were even living then?!??

    Starmer not visiting Shropshire is no mistake. A subtle LD-Labour agreement, a la Blair/Ashdown will emerge. I predict a hung parliament with Brown's offer of instant PR imposed, ensuring the Tories will never win again (see above).

    Would the SNP vote for PR?
    Oh, yes. Been SNP policy for donkey's.
    Lib Dem 2010 manifesto:

    https://www.markpack.org.uk/files/2015/01/Liberal-Democrat-manifesto-2010.pdf

    We will scrap unfair university tuition fees so everyone has the chance to get a degree, regardless of their parents’ income.
    Er, different party, different country, and a policy the SNP didn't support.
    Point is, just because a party has a policy, doesn't mean it will actually follow through with it.

    It's very easy to virtue signal on a subject like electoral reform when you never actually have to prove you really mean it.
    If the SNP end up in a coalition with a party that is against PR then they may have to drop it, just as the LibDems had to drop their tuition fee promise.
    You could say that they would have dropped it even if they had a majority, but we'll never know.
  • South Africa COVID update:

    - New cases: 16,366
    - Average: 8,860 (+1,878)
    - Positivity rate: 23.8% (-0.5)
    - In hospital: 3,255 (+53)
    - In ICU: 283 (+9)
    - New deaths: 21
    - Average: 24 (+2)
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458

    IanB2 said:

    Travellers heading to UK will now have to have Covid test before their departure in effort to limit spread of virus, government says

    ridiculous
    Ridiculous this is only implemented 22 months into the pandemic.
    Eh? It was only abandoned in October
    Is that true? I thought that previously it was isolate and test after arriving in the country rather than before departing for the UK.
    Having travelled quite a bit during the pandemic I can confirm you had to take a test before returning and produce a certificate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    I agree it is unlikely but not impossible the Tories could increase their majority in 2023/24 with the boost of the boundary changes and if Corbynite Labour 2019 voters go Green and the Tories pick up more votes from the Brexit Party than they lose to Labour, Reform UK and the LDs. If the Tories also get more Unionist tactical votes in Scotland they could also pick up a few SNP seats.

    I wouild be wary of saying the pendulum is broken though, the Tories failed to get a majority in 2010 so 2015 was the first Tory majority for 18 years. 2019 was also more a vote to enable Boris to get Brexit done than to give the Tories another term

  • A startling thought just occurred. What if the Labour Party in England *never* recovers? What if they are sliding into a Scottish-level extinction event? Where is England headed?

    Could the English left-of-centre simply flip over to voting Green? It nearly happened in Germany.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Carnyx said:

    tlg86 said:

    Carnyx said:

    tlg86 said:

    Carnyx said:

    tlg86 said:

    Starry said:

    There's no way Labour will win again. Thatcher is too popular and Labour is split between hard-left and centrist. There's no way the Tories will ever form a government. Blair and Brown are too popular. The Right are completely split anyway over Europe. A new anti-EU party will ensure they are never elected. Labour will never win again as the Left are being 'left' behind, meaning Labour are only just ahead in the polls. Nothing can change in the next few years until the next election. Yeah?

    Lib Dems will disappear as it's been over 5 years since they were in government. FIVE YEARS! Can anyone remember where they were even living then?!??

    Starmer not visiting Shropshire is no mistake. A subtle LD-Labour agreement, a la Blair/Ashdown will emerge. I predict a hung parliament with Brown's offer of instant PR imposed, ensuring the Tories will never win again (see above).

    Would the SNP vote for PR?
    Oh, yes. Been SNP policy for donkey's.
    Lib Dem 2010 manifesto:

    https://www.markpack.org.uk/files/2015/01/Liberal-Democrat-manifesto-2010.pdf

    We will scrap unfair university tuition fees so everyone has the chance to get a degree, regardless of their parents’ income.
    Er, different party, different country, and a policy the SNP didn't support.
    Point is, just because a party has a policy, doesn't mean it will actually follow through with it.

    It's very easy to virtue signal on a subject like electoral reform when you never actually have to prove you really mean it.
    On that logic you could claim that the Tories aren't serious about anything in their manifesto, for instance.

    Don't forget the Scots are very familiar with non-FPTP.

    Just added an addendum pointing out that there was a specific issue with the LDs - a formal coalition.
    Don't worry, I don't think any party is serious about any issue in their manifesto!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673
    edited December 2021

    I can see us getting into the ridiculous situation where the government tells us that we shouldn't meet up with our colleagues in the office but it is OK to meet them in the pub for a Christmas piss up.

    You are describing the balanced approach 😃
    Just back and pretty average on the horses today , got my money back though. Anybody else do OK today.
    PS: Annoyed I missed Snow Leopardess
  • "I recently had to tell a friend, who has chosen not to get vaccinated, that he is no longer welcome to a small social gathering I’ve organised next week.

    As I explained, that’s because recent studies suggest an unvaccinated person is up to 20 times more likely to infect you than someone who is vaccinated — and none of the rest of the people who have been invited to my party wants to risk getting infected and passing it on to more vulnerable, elderly relatives. It was a tricky conversation."

    Dr Mike Mosley (Mail)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That was the most impressive element of the documentary....twitter thread.

    Peter Jackson Details How ‘Get Back’ Used Machine Learning to Restore the Beatles’ Sound and Footage
    https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1466882712862527489?s=20

    More interesting than any of that Beatles rubbish - I recently learnt (*) that Peter Jackson has a very large pre-WW2 airplane collection
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gmZ9X9Aplk
    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2021/01/peter-jackson-and-the-airplane-thief

    Edit: skip to 44 mins in the first link to see a few of them flying...

    (*) Perhaps from on here?
    As a massive Biggles fan, can I just say WOW.
    There's a big recent documentary about it somewhere.

    He's a bit anal about it - tries to rebuild using the original techniques -ish. Very English Heritage style.

    If there is £50m to spend, it is as good a thing to do as any.
    If I had a few million to spare, I'd buy one of the unrestored 9F steam locos (92219 or 92245) and convert it to a Franco-Crosti boilered one. Just to see the enthusiasts generate enough steam to power it... ;)

    (Ten of the 9Fs were built with a rather unsuccessful boiler design, and they looked weird: http://www.traintesting.com/images/92023 Rugby test station WR.jpg )
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    malcolmg said:

    I can see us getting into the ridiculous situation where the government tells us that we shouldn't meet up with our colleagues in the office but it is OK to meet them in the pub for a Christmas piss up.

    You are describing the balanced approach 😃
    Just back and pretty average on the horses today , got my money back though. Anybody else do OK today.
    You had two winners Malky like me. Average? I’m more than happy 🥳
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    edited December 2021
    FPT:

    MattW said:

    dixiedean said:

    Have I got this right? The battleground for the next GE is going to be the Party Leaders' opinions of Peppa Pig World?

    Doubtless Ed Davey will sit on the fence and remain studiously neutral.

    The LD's need radical, distinctive policies which sit outside the mainstream of the Culture War.
    Expect a speech on Raa Raa the Noisy Lion.
    I know I have said it before, but it really is true and Lib Dem’s should seriously consider it. If Ed Davey had a celebrity affair with someone, people would remember his name and listen to him more.

    Who should Ed have an affair with to best help the LibDem brand? Would Gemma Collins be a good match for younger voters? Joan Collins would suggest he can attract Conservatives?
    Mummy Pig?

    I think the script call for an extramarital affair with Mummy Pig that preferably leads to a new family member.

    Peppa welcomes her little brother, Lib Dem Pig, could be a classic episode.
    Davey Pig surely? With yellow spots.

    Peppa Pig did come out in support for Gordon Browns Labour, so can’t complain about becoming a political football.
    Is Peppa Pig related to Mr Blobby? Time was when he was the key pink TV star du jour.
    Before my time, I had to google mr blobby. What the fuck did they invent that for? 😂
    You seriously need to meet Ludwig and Bod.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uk5anZMoMg0

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7vEyTK3LjM
    Nice try! First one obviously a pastiche of a public information film, I’m not falling for that it’s likely very recent made to look weird.

    I don’t know what to make of the second one other than it made me feel sick.
    You need to update your TV history hinterland, and perhaps snap judgement skills :smile: .

    Both are childrens' TV series from 1975-1977 that ran in the teatime slot. The time that also gave us the Wombles, Ivor the Engine in colour and Paddington Bear. Core childhood territory for middle aged PBers.

    Bod is unusual. Ludwig is surreal, and was based around Beethoven's Music - hence the opening Da-Da-Da-Dum.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludwig_(cartoon)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bod_(TV_series)


  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,768

    South Africa COVID update:

    - New cases: 16,366
    - Average: 8,860 (+1,878)
    - Positivity rate: 23.8% (-0.5)
    - In hospital: 3,255 (+53)
    - In ICU: 283 (+9)
    - New deaths: 21
    - Average: 24 (+2)

    Those hospital and ICU numbers are quite encouraging.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Michael Gove to propose US style regional governors for non urban England, with all big cities to have Mayors.

    Further devolution to counties equivalent to the powers London now has

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467063537461780481?s=20

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467064174249394177?s=20
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    HYUFD said:

    I agree it is unlikely but not impossible the Tories could increase their majority in 2023/24 with the boost of the boundary changes and if Corbynite Labour 2019 voters go Green and the Tories pick up more votes from the Brexit Party than they lose to Labour, Reform UK and the LDs. If the Tories also get more Unionist tactical votes in Scotland they could also pick up a few SNP seats.

    I wouild be wary of saying the pendulum is broken though, the Tories failed to get a majority in 2010 so 2015 was the first Tory majority for 18 years. 2019 was also more a vote to enable Boris to get Brexit done than to give the Tories another term

    Yes, that looks right to me. It's possible but the Tories would be right to be wary.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Hurrah, I think Verstappen has just handed the title to Sir Lewis.

    Would have been a mega lap, but he was thinking with his balls, not his brain there.
    Probably needs a new gearbox (5 place penalty).
    Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

    FWIW - I think tomorrow's race is going to be a demolition derby, the track isn't good.

    Hamilton could have his own moment or two.
    Providing he gets away cleanly, should be fine. He can be quick enough in clear air without taking silly risks.
    Though of course Verstappen could get lucky with a safety car at the right time.

    As for the track, Silverstone speeds with Monaco walls. At least one safety car near guaranteed.
    I hate this style of track. I understand that tarmac run-off areas lead to all sorts of problems (as an example, Verstappen a couple of races ago), and often do not punish drivers for small mistakes, but this walls-everywhere style allows no mistakes to be made, and even a small mistake can ruin a driver's race.

    Best are ones where drivers can make mistakes, but it costs them time and positions.

    Also: I know some differ, but I don't think such circuits look as good on TV as 'traditional' circuits.
    It’s an effing dangerous track.
    The drivers find it quite exhilarating, apparently. I don’t think you get into F1 without a touch of the @Dura_Ace
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited December 2021
    Moderate Valerie Pecresse wins the runoff to elect Les Republicains candidate for next year's French presidential election, beating the hard right Eric Ciotti 61% to 39%.
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1467123870150926340?s=20

    Probably better news for Le Pen and Zemmour than Macron.

    While Ciotti could have eaten into Le Pen and Zemmour's vote on the hard right in round 1, Pecresse could appeal to moderates and centrists who voted for Macron in 2017.

    Also good news for the leftwing candidates Hidalgo and Melenchon as it means there is a small chance Pecresse and Macron split the moderate vote and knock each other out, setting up a runoff between the left and far right
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    A startling thought just occurred. What if the Labour Party in England *never* recovers? What if they are sliding into a Scottish-level extinction event? Where is England headed?

    Could the English left-of-centre simply flip over to voting Green? It nearly happened in Germany.

    They are at well over 30% in every poll. A long, long way from that day.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    HYUFD said:

    Michael Gove to propose US style regional governors for non urban England, with all big cities to have Mayors.

    Further devolution to counties equivalent to the powers London now has

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467063537461780481?s=20

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467064174249394177?s=20

    Where does that leave “North of Tyne”?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    MattW said:

    FPT:

    MattW said:

    dixiedean said:

    Have I got this right? The battleground for the next GE is going to be the Party Leaders' opinions of Peppa Pig World?

    Doubtless Ed Davey will sit on the fence and remain studiously neutral.

    The LD's need radical, distinctive policies which sit outside the mainstream of the Culture War.
    Expect a speech on Raa Raa the Noisy Lion.
    I know I have said it before, but it really is true and Lib Dem’s should seriously consider it. If Ed Davey had a celebrity affair with someone, people would remember his name and listen to him more.

    Who should Ed have an affair with to best help the LibDem brand? Would Gemma Collins be a good match for younger voters? Joan Collins would suggest he can attract Conservatives?
    Mummy Pig?

    I think the script call for an extramarital affair with Mummy Pig that preferably leads to a new family member.

    Peppa welcomes her little brother, Lib Dem Pig, could be a classic episode.
    Davey Pig surely? With yellow spots.

    Peppa Pig did come out in support for Gordon Browns Labour, so can’t complain about becoming a political football.
    Is Peppa Pig related to Mr Blobby? Time was when he was the key pink TV star du jour.
    Before my time, I had to google mr blobby. What the fuck did they invent that for? 😂
    You seriously need to meet Ludwig and Bod.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uk5anZMoMg0

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7vEyTK3LjM
    Nice try! First one obviously a pastiche of a public information film, I’m not falling for that it’s likely very recent made to look weird.

    I don’t know what to make of the second one other than it made me feel sick.
    You need to update your TV history hinterland, and perhaps snap judgement skills :smile: .

    Both are childrens' TV series from 1975-1977 that ran in the teatime slot. The time that also gave us the Wombles, Ivor the Engine in colour and Paddington Bear. Core childhood territory for middle aged PBers.

    Bod is unusual. Ludwig is surreal, and was based around Beethoven's Music - hence the opening Da-Da-Da-Dum.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludwig_(cartoon)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bod_(TV_series)


    Will o' the Wisp with Kenneth Williams.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited December 2021

    HYUFD said:

    Michael Gove to propose US style regional governors for non urban England, with all big cities to have Mayors.

    Further devolution to counties equivalent to the powers London now has

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467063537461780481?s=20

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467064174249394177?s=20

    Where does that leave “North of Tyne”?
    Mayors for Newcastle and Tyneside, a governor for Northumbria and Durham and more powers for Northumbria and Durham councils
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,183
    On thread: Interesting piece Philip. I'd add a seventh reason: events. Clearly the competent wing of the Labour Party are in the ascendancy at the moment, but it's not a given that that will continue. Let's say an Event happens and SKS is no longer leader of the party - are we comfortable that the far left wouldn't manage to wrestle back control? A Corbyn-but-wthout-the-charm leader could easily take Labour below 200 seats.
    I don't rate this as particularly likely - SKS doesn't look like a health or scandal emergency waiting to happen. But you can never rule it out.
    Like you, though, I'd be looking for considerably longer odds than Ladbrokes are currently offering.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited December 2021
    malcolmg said:

    I can see us getting into the ridiculous situation where the government tells us that we shouldn't meet up with our colleagues in the office but it is OK to meet them in the pub for a Christmas piss up.

    You are describing the balanced approach 😃
    Just back and pretty average on the horses today , got my money back though. Anybody else do OK today.
    PS: Annoyed I missed Snow Leopardess
    I didn’t have any skin in it but I was out my seat for that one! Wow. Two out the advantage dried up, and from there to the photo it never looked like she would hold on.

    Down this thread near beginning I dissected the 1.30 at Aintree. Front running in weather I put it down. And my long shot came second by a length.

    £75 lucky15 stake I got nearly ten times back. I might not have to ask my Dad for the money to buy his Christmas present now, depends how crazy I go shopping this week. 👢👢

    I’m still drinking and dancing. 💃🏻 LOL.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Michael Gove to propose US style regional governors for non urban England, with all big cities to have Mayors.

    Further devolution to counties equivalent to the powers London now has

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467063537461780481?s=20

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467064174249394177?s=20

    Where does that leave “North of Tyne”?
    Mayors for Newcastle and Tyneside, a governor for Northumbria and more powers for Northumbria council
    There is no “Northumbria” council.

    There was a North East Combined Authority (NECA) with Newcastle Northumberland Sunderland North Tyneside South Tyneside Gateshead and Durham in it but Newcastle North Tyneside and Northumberland left to start the “North of Tyne” “City Region”.

    NECA still exists with Gateshead Sunderland South Tyneside and Durham.

    North of Tyne has an elected mayor (who is a useless whopper)
  • Sunil has asked question (upthread) previous asked by yours truly & others in last day or so: how would 10% swing to Labour, as posted in Old Bexley & Sidcup by-election, translate if applied to next general on new boundaries.

    Coincidentally have been re-reading "Liberal Landslide: the General Election of 1905" by AK Russell (1973) written in same basic format as the British general election series made famous by David Butler.

    Note that according to Russell's "Analysis of the swing according to type of contest" (page 238) the change in % vote for all contested seats compared with the 1900 "Khaki election" was as follows:

    Unionist -10.5% resulting in net loss of -245 seats
    Liberal +7.1% resulting in net gain of +216 seats
    Labour +2.0% resulting in gain of +28 seats (from previous 2)

    Plus there were swings in favor of a few Unionist Free Traders (opposed to their party) and Socialists not affiliated with Labour Representation Committee. In addition, in Ireland the Nationalist gained +1 seat, though swing not calculated due to high number of uncontested elections, and not really a factor.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    North of Tyne is the boundaries of historic Northumberland fwiw
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    HYUFD said:

    Moderate Valerie Pecresse wins the runoff to elect Les Republicains candidate for next year's French presidential election, beating the hard right Eric Ciotti 61% to 39%.
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1467123870150926340?s=20

    Probably better news for Le Pen and Zemmour than Macron.

    While Ciotti could have eaten into Le Pen and Zemmour's vote on the hard right in round 1, Pecresse could appeal to moderates and centrists who voted for Macron in 2017

    She hasn't done so to date regularly polling worse than Xavier Bertrand or Michel Barnier. How will she fare any better than Francois Fillon in your view? Her best hope has to be Le Pen and Zemmour fighting each other to a standstill and allowing her to nick second place.

    The other problem is Le Pen has tacked back to the centre-right and is more likely to attract the LR supporters who would have voted for Ciotti than Pecresse.

    Would you also accept LR, as the main centre-right party in France, is still strongly committed to continued French membership of the EU?
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Nice thread header Philip.
  • HYUFD said:

    Michael Gove to propose US style regional governors for non urban England, with all big cities to have Mayors.

    Further devolution to counties equivalent to the powers London now has

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467063537461780481?s=20

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467064174249394177?s=20

    It will never happen.

    Love the by 2030 line. :lol:

    That's two GEs away probably.
  • Just had a bit of a struggle getting ye olde internet to work. Marvellous.

    F1: Verstappen should've been on pole. I wonder if his gearbox will need changing...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    dixiedean said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    MattW said:

    dixiedean said:

    Have I got this right? The battleground for the next GE is going to be the Party Leaders' opinions of Peppa Pig World?

    Doubtless Ed Davey will sit on the fence and remain studiously neutral.

    The LD's need radical, distinctive policies which sit outside the mainstream of the Culture War.
    Expect a speech on Raa Raa the Noisy Lion.
    I know I have said it before, but it really is true and Lib Dem’s should seriously consider it. If Ed Davey had a celebrity affair with someone, people would remember his name and listen to him more.

    Who should Ed have an affair with to best help the LibDem brand? Would Gemma Collins be a good match for younger voters? Joan Collins would suggest he can attract Conservatives?
    Mummy Pig?

    I think the script call for an extramarital affair with Mummy Pig that preferably leads to a new family member.

    Peppa welcomes her little brother, Lib Dem Pig, could be a classic episode.
    Davey Pig surely? With yellow spots.

    Peppa Pig did come out in support for Gordon Browns Labour, so can’t complain about becoming a political football.
    Is Peppa Pig related to Mr Blobby? Time was when he was the key pink TV star du jour.
    Before my time, I had to google mr blobby. What the fuck did they invent that for? 😂
    You seriously need to meet Ludwig and Bod.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uk5anZMoMg0

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7vEyTK3LjM
    Nice try! First one obviously a pastiche of a public information film, I’m not falling for that it’s likely very recent made to look weird.

    I don’t know what to make of the second one other than it made me feel sick.
    You need to update your TV history hinterland, and perhaps snap judgement skills :smile: .

    Both are childrens' TV series from 1975-1977 that ran in the teatime slot. The time that also gave us the Wombles, Ivor the Engine in colour and Paddington Bear. Core childhood territory for middle aged PBers.

    Bod is unusual. Ludwig is surreal, and was based around Beethoven's Music - hence the opening Da-Da-Da-Dum.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludwig_(cartoon)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bod_(TV_series)


    Will o' the Wisp with Kenneth Williams.
    Willo the Wisp ... Evil Edna falls in love. Shades of Little Miss Bouncer (loved an announcer, down at the BBC)

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x15nbk5

    Bod was narrated by John le Measurier.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,183
    MattW said:

    FPT:

    MattW said:

    dixiedean said:

    Have I got this right? The battleground for the next GE is going to be the Party Leaders' opinions of Peppa Pig World?

    Doubtless Ed Davey will sit on the fence and remain studiously neutral.

    The LD's need radical, distinctive policies which sit outside the mainstream of the Culture War.
    Expect a speech on Raa Raa the Noisy Lion.
    I know I have said it before, but it really is true and Lib Dem’s should seriously consider it. If Ed Davey had a celebrity affair with someone, people would remember his name and listen to him more.

    Who should Ed have an affair with to best help the LibDem brand? Would Gemma Collins be a good match for younger voters? Joan Collins would suggest he can attract Conservatives?
    Mummy Pig?

    I think the script call for an extramarital affair with Mummy Pig that preferably leads to a new family member.

    Peppa welcomes her little brother, Lib Dem Pig, could be a classic episode.
    Davey Pig surely? With yellow spots.

    Peppa Pig did come out in support for Gordon Browns Labour, so can’t complain about becoming a political football.
    Is Peppa Pig related to Mr Blobby? Time was when he was the key pink TV star du jour.
    Before my time, I had to google mr blobby. What the fuck did they invent that for? 😂
    You seriously need to meet Ludwig and Bod.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uk5anZMoMg0

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7vEyTK3LjM
    Nice try! First one obviously a pastiche of a public information film, I’m not falling for that it’s likely very recent made to look weird.

    I don’t know what to make of the second one other than it made me feel sick.
    You need to update your TV history hinterland, and perhaps snap judgement skills :smile: .

    Both are childrens' TV series from 1975-1977 that ran in the teatime slot. The time that also gave us the Wombles, Ivor the Engine in colour and Paddington Bear. Core childhood territory for middle aged PBers.

    Bod is unusual. Ludwig is surreal, and was based around Beethoven's Music - hence the opening Da-Da-Da-Dum.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludwig_(cartoon)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bod_(TV_series)


    Yes, I remember Bod. I used to love that show. The giddy thrill of guessing what flavour milkshake Alphonso(?) the (frog?) conductor would choose.
    When I tell my kids that in the 70s and 80s you could only watch children's telly between the hours of 1.20 and 1.30 and then again between 3.45 and 6, with the last hour reserved for stuff for teenagers, they look - what - bored? "Why are you telling me this AGAIN, Dad? - it's not the 80s any more." Yes, I think that's what it is.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Michael Gove to propose US style regional governors for non urban England, with all big cities to have Mayors.

    Further devolution to counties equivalent to the powers London now has

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467063537461780481?s=20

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467064174249394177?s=20

    Where does that leave “North of Tyne”?
    Mayors for Newcastle and Tyneside, a governor for Northumbria and Durham and more powers for Northumbria and Durham councils
    The truth is the Mayor of London has very little power - is that the plan or is it more like the Mayoralty of Manchester or Newham which is in effect the political leadership of the authority? We also don't know what substantive authority any of these new "Mayors" will have - will they be free of capping for Council Tax and will they be able to access central Government money without having to jump through hoops to bid for it?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Michael Gove to propose US style regional governors for non urban England, with all big cities to have Mayors.

    Further devolution to counties equivalent to the powers London now has

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467063537461780481?s=20

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467064174249394177?s=20

    Where does that leave “North of Tyne”?
    Mayors for Newcastle and Tyneside, a governor for Northumbria and Durham and more powers for Northumbria and Durham councils
    The truth is the Mayor of London has very little power - is that the plan or is it more like the Mayoralty of Manchester or Newham which is in effect the political leadership of the authority? We also don't know what substantive authority any of these new "Mayors" will have - will they be free of capping for Council Tax and will they be able to access central Government money without having to jump through hoops to bid for it?
    Not really sure about that.

    My relatives who live 200m outside the boundary are very glad they are that side of the line.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited December 2021
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Moderate Valerie Pecresse wins the runoff to elect Les Republicains candidate for next year's French presidential election, beating the hard right Eric Ciotti 61% to 39%.
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1467123870150926340?s=20

    Probably better news for Le Pen and Zemmour than Macron.

    While Ciotti could have eaten into Le Pen and Zemmour's vote on the hard right in round 1, Pecresse could appeal to moderates and centrists who voted for Macron in 2017

    She hasn't done so to date regularly polling worse than Xavier Bertrand or Michel Barnier. How will she fare any better than Francois Fillon in your view? Her best hope has to be Le Pen and Zemmour fighting each other to a standstill and allowing her to nick second place.

    The other problem is Le Pen has tacked back to the centre-right and is more likely to attract the LR supporters who would have voted for Ciotti than Pecresse.

    Would you also accept LR, as the main centre-right party in France, is still strongly committed to continued French membership of the EU?
    She polled worse than Bertrand but she often polled better than Banier. Fillon was more conservative, certainly more socially conservative, than Pecresse, so Pecresse will be better able to appeal to liberal Macron 2017 voters.

    I agree it is a boost for Le Pen as she can hoover up Ciotti voters who think Pecresse too liberal. Also a boost for the leftwingers Melenchon and Hidalgo as if Macron and Pecresse split the liberal centrist vote and Zemmour and Le Pen split the hard right vote that gives them more chance of making the runoff.

    LR are committed to EU membership but so are most French parties and candidates bar Zemmour and Dupont-Aignan's Debout La France and Melenchon and his LFI which are more EUsceptic
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,768

    A startling thought just occurred. What if the Labour Party in England *never* recovers? What if they are sliding into a Scottish-level extinction event? Where is England headed?

    Could the English left-of-centre simply flip over to voting Green? It nearly happened in Germany.

    There are a couple of things that make it difficult for the Greens in England and Wales:

    Firstly, their party leadership doesn't seem very interested in winning elections. Why aren't they flooding the byelections with activists? In an FPTP world, you need to be seen as a winner, and actually competing in byelections would be a great start.

    Secondly, the German Greens are basically a soft left of centre party which cares about environmental issues. In England, the Greens are Extinction Rebellion Rebranded.

    Now, could that change? Sure, and the Greens made a real effort in this year's locals, and managed to double their councillor count to 151. Next year, the local elections are more metropolitan, and there's London too. So that could be the start of something. But it's really hard for a new party to break through in an FPTP world. Don't forget the SNP only managed it on the back of success at Holyrood (where there was PR) and the independence referendum.
  • Well-argued & -written analysis by Philip T, would NOT bet the farm on it but certainly anyone putting their money down should consider the points he raises.

    Which (I'm totally guessing) make most sense from a spread-betting standpoint?

    "Liberal Landslide" which I've just cited, discusses various rosy scenarios posited by Tory pundits in the lead up to 1905 election. Which of course turned out to be a real bummer for the Unionists.

    However, the current situation is NOT all that much akin to 1905, at least not yet. Though a few definite similarities, including strong nationalist domination & contingent from one Celtic kingdom plus a gaffe-prone Tory PM and govt seriously divided by personality and policy, with same also being true of the main opposition party and the opposition in general.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,768
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Moderate Valerie Pecresse wins the runoff to elect Les Republicains candidate for next year's French presidential election, beating the hard right Eric Ciotti 61% to 39%.
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1467123870150926340?s=20

    Probably better news for Le Pen and Zemmour than Macron.

    While Ciotti could have eaten into Le Pen and Zemmour's vote on the hard right in round 1, Pecresse could appeal to moderates and centrists who voted for Macron in 2017

    She hasn't done so to date regularly polling worse than Xavier Bertrand or Michel Barnier. How will she fare any better than Francois Fillon in your view? Her best hope has to be Le Pen and Zemmour fighting each other to a standstill and allowing her to nick second place.

    The other problem is Le Pen has tacked back to the centre-right and is more likely to attract the LR supporters who would have voted for Ciotti than Pecresse.

    Would you also accept LR, as the main centre-right party in France, is still strongly committed to continued French membership of the EU?
    LR sounds more Eurosceptic than the FN these days.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,768
    HYUFD said:

    I agree it is unlikely but not impossible the Tories could increase their majority in 2023/24 with the boost of the boundary changes and if Corbynite Labour 2019 voters go Green and the Tories pick up more votes from the Brexit Party than they lose to Labour, Reform UK and the LDs. If the Tories also get more Unionist tactical votes in Scotland they could also pick up a few SNP seats.

    I wouild be wary of saying the pendulum is broken though, the Tories failed to get a majority in 2010 so 2015 was the first Tory majority for 18 years. 2019 was also more a vote to enable Boris to get Brexit done than to give the Tories another term

    I think that analysis is pretty much spot on.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    edited December 2021

    A startling thought just occurred. What if the Labour Party in England *never* recovers? What if they are sliding into a Scottish-level extinction event? Where is England headed?

    Could the English left-of-centre simply flip over to voting Green? It nearly happened in Germany.

    Perhaps we would finally get non-political Trades Unions.

    (He said helpfully)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited December 2021

    Sunil has asked question (upthread) previous asked by yours truly & others in last day or so: how would 10% swing to Labour, as posted in Old Bexley & Sidcup by-election, translate if applied to next general on new boundaries.

    Coincidentally have been re-reading "Liberal Landslide: the General Election of 1905" by AK Russell (1973) written in same basic format as the British general election series made famous by David Butler.

    Note that according to Russell's "Analysis of the swing according to type of contest" (page 238) the change in % vote for all contested seats compared with the 1900 "Khaki election" was as follows:

    Unionist -10.5% resulting in net loss of -245 seats
    Liberal +7.1% resulting in net gain of +216 seats
    Labour +2.0% resulting in gain of +28 seats (from previous 2)

    Plus there were swings in favor of a few Unionist Free Traders (opposed to their party) and Socialists not affiliated with Labour Representation Committee. In addition, in Ireland the Nationalist gained +1 seat, though swing not calculated due to high number of uncontested elections, and not really a factor.

    A 10% swing as seen in Old Bexley and Sidcup would see Labour largest party but still 22 seats short of a majority on the new boundaries
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=31&LAB=39&LIB=7&Reform=6&Green=3&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20.5&SCOTLAB=19&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
  • Why would a Conservative government want to introduce this sort of pointless bureaucracy? https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cat-microchipping-to-be-made-mandatory
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393

    HYUFD said:

    Michael Gove to propose US style regional governors for non urban England, with all big cities to have Mayors.

    Further devolution to counties equivalent to the powers London now has

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467063537461780481?s=20

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467064174249394177?s=20

    Where does that leave “North of Tyne”?
    A minor county. No change.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Michael Gove to propose US style regional governors for non urban England, with all big cities to have Mayors.

    Further devolution to counties equivalent to the powers London now has

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467063537461780481?s=20

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467064174249394177?s=20

    Where does that leave “North of Tyne”?
    Mayors for Newcastle and Tyneside, a governor for Northumbria and Durham and more powers for Northumbria and Durham councils
    Northumberland
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    Well-argued & -written analysis by Philip T, would NOT bet the farm on it but certainly anyone putting their money down should consider the points he raises.

    Which (I'm totally guessing) make most sense from a spread-betting standpoint?

    "Liberal Landslide" which I've just cited, discusses various rosy scenarios posited by Tory pundits in the lead up to 1905 election. Which of course turned out to be a real bummer for the Unionists.

    However, the current situation is NOT all that much akin to 1905, at least not yet. Though a few definite similarities, including strong nationalist domination & contingent from one Celtic kingdom plus a gaffe-prone Tory PM and govt seriously divided by personality and policy, with same also being true of the main opposition party and the opposition in general.

    However. The incoming Liberal government had 3 future PM's in it. Asquith, Lloyd George as well as C-B. They also had Churchill too.
    I doubt I'm the only one who doesn't see that right now.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited December 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    A startling thought just occurred. What if the Labour Party in England *never* recovers? What if they are sliding into a Scottish-level extinction event? Where is England headed?

    Could the English left-of-centre simply flip over to voting Green? It nearly happened in Germany.

    There are a couple of things that make it difficult for the Greens in England and Wales:

    Firstly, their party leadership doesn't seem very interested in winning elections. Why aren't they flooding the byelections with activists? In an FPTP world, you need to be seen as a winner, and actually competing in byelections would be a great start.

    Secondly, the German Greens are basically a soft left of centre party which cares about environmental issues. In England, the Greens are Extinction Rebellion Rebranded.

    Now, could that change? Sure, and the Greens made a real effort in this year's locals, and managed to double their councillor count to 151. Next year, the local elections are more metropolitan, and there's London too. So that could be the start of something. But it's really hard for a new party to break through in an FPTP world. Don't forget the SNP only managed it on the back of success at Holyrood (where there was PR) and the independence referendum.
    The Greens do have quite a sizeable a more centre-left half, I would say. Caroline Lucas and some of her Brighton councillors aren't really XR.
  • HYUFD said:

    Sunil has asked question (upthread) previous asked by yours truly & others in last day or so: how would 10% swing to Labour, as posted in Old Bexley & Sidcup by-election, translate if applied to next general on new boundaries.

    Coincidentally have been re-reading "Liberal Landslide: the General Election of 1905" by AK Russell (1973) written in same basic format as the British general election series made famous by David Butler.

    Note that according to Russell's "Analysis of the swing according to type of contest" (page 238) the change in % vote for all contested seats compared with the 1900 "Khaki election" was as follows:

    Unionist -10.5% resulting in net loss of -245 seats
    Liberal +7.1% resulting in net gain of +216 seats
    Labour +2.0% resulting in gain of +28 seats (from previous 2)

    Plus there were swings in favor of a few Unionist Free Traders (opposed to their party) and Socialists not affiliated with Labour Representation Committee. In addition, in Ireland the Nationalist gained +1 seat, though swing not calculated due to high number of uncontested elections, and not really a factor.

    A 10% swing as seen in Old Bexley and Sidcup would see Labour largest party but still 22 seats short of a majority on the new boundaries
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=31&LAB=39&LIB=7&Reform=6&Green=3&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20.5&SCOTLAB=19&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
    I played around with the electoralcalculus thingy and came up with much the same though with slightly different %s.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722
    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Michael Gove to propose US style regional governors for non urban England, with all big cities to have Mayors.

    Further devolution to counties equivalent to the powers London now has

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467063537461780481?s=20

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467064174249394177?s=20

    Where does that leave “North of Tyne”?
    Mayors for Newcastle and Tyneside, a governor for Northumbria and Durham and more powers for Northumbria and Durham councils
    The truth is the Mayor of London has very little power - is that the plan or is it more like the Mayoralty of Manchester or Newham which is in effect the political leadership of the authority? We also don't know what substantive authority any of these new "Mayors" will have - will they be free of capping for Council Tax and will they be able to access central Government money without having to jump through hoops to bid for it?
    It sounds like the new Mayors and governors would have powers equivalent to London Mayors and county councils would get powers equivalent to those of the London Assembly
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited December 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Michael Gove to propose US style regional governors for non urban England, with all big cities to have Mayors.

    Further devolution to counties equivalent to the powers London now has

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467063537461780481?s=20

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1467064174249394177?s=20

    Where does that leave “North of Tyne”?
    Mayors for Newcastle and Tyneside, a governor for Northumbria and more powers for Northumbria council
    There is no “Northumbria” council.

    There was a North East Combined Authority (NECA) with Newcastle Northumberland Sunderland North Tyneside South Tyneside Gateshead and Durham in it but Newcastle North Tyneside and Northumberland left to start the “North of Tyne” “City Region”.

    NECA still exists with Gateshead Sunderland South Tyneside and Durham.

    North of Tyne has an elected mayor (who is a useless whopper)
    There is though Northumberland County Council which would get extra powers as would Durham County Council while Newcastle gets its own elected Mayor

    https://www.northumberland.gov.uk/Home.aspx
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Evening all :)

    I'm pleased to see @Philip_Thompson's piece published as it represents the positive rosy end of the Johnson spectrum.

    I think it's improbable but it's not implausible.

    Old Bexley & Sidcup had a 10% swing from Conservative to Labour - now, you could argue that turns a 12% national Conservative lead in 2019 into an 8% Labour lead now.

    Clearly, some of that was by-election froth - the question is how much. Let's be fair - given the Conservatives held every Council Ward with vote shares from 56 to 70% and had won 62% in the Longlands by-election in May this was beyond any simple mountain for Labour and in truth to get 31% of the vote was okay, not brilliant but respectable.

    The Conservative vote share was also respectable - I suspect getting the vote out was the big problem even with a local Councillor as candidate. In short, the Conservatives played it safe, took no chances, chose a local man and got a vote share which is historically okay but no more.

    I'm of the view it's probably 60% a Conservative majority and 40% a Hung Parliament with the Conservatives the largest party at this time. I take the point about the boundaries but at this time I find the notion of a 12-point lead improbable so a majority yes but an increased majority, I'm much less convinced.

    The other point is as the pandemic becomes endemic (so the author tells me), we move back into the BAU of governing and as we've seen the limitations of both Government and Opposition are no longer obscured by the greater national crisis. Mid term is only just starting and I think there's an uncomfortable 12-18 months ahead for the Government.

    That doesn't mean they can't or won't win re-election in May 2024.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,768

    rcs1000 said:

    A startling thought just occurred. What if the Labour Party in England *never* recovers? What if they are sliding into a Scottish-level extinction event? Where is England headed?

    Could the English left-of-centre simply flip over to voting Green? It nearly happened in Germany.

    There are a couple of things that make it difficult for the Greens in England and Wales:

    Firstly, their party leadership doesn't seem very interested in winning elections. Why aren't they flooding the byelections with activists? In an FPTP world, you need to be seen as a winner, and actually competing in byelections would be a great start.

    Secondly, the German Greens are basically a soft left of centre party which cares about environmental issues. In England, the Greens are Extinction Rebellion Rebranded.

    Now, could that change? Sure, and the Greens made a real effort in this year's locals, and managed to double their councillor count to 151. Next year, the local elections are more metropolitan, and there's London too. So that could be the start of something. But it's really hard for a new party to break through in an FPTP world. Don't forget the SNP only managed it on the back of success at Holyrood (where there was PR) and the independence referendum.
    The Greens do have quite a sizeable a more centre-left half, I would say. Caroline Lucas and some of her Brighton councillors aren't really XR.
    That's fair.

    But the problem is that the mainstream parties have taken Green issues quite seriously for some time. So, the Greens have been forced to move ever leftward to carve out a niche.

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    MattW said:

    FPT:

    MattW said:

    dixiedean said:

    Have I got this right? The battleground for the next GE is going to be the Party Leaders' opinions of Peppa Pig World?

    Doubtless Ed Davey will sit on the fence and remain studiously neutral.

    The LD's need radical, distinctive policies which sit outside the mainstream of the Culture War.
    Expect a speech on Raa Raa the Noisy Lion.
    I know I have said it before, but it really is true and Lib Dem’s should seriously consider it. If Ed Davey had a celebrity affair with someone, people would remember his name and listen to him more.

    Who should Ed have an affair with to best help the LibDem brand? Would Gemma Collins be a good match for younger voters? Joan Collins would suggest he can attract Conservatives?
    Mummy Pig?

    I think the script call for an extramarital affair with Mummy Pig that preferably leads to a new family member.

    Peppa welcomes her little brother, Lib Dem Pig, could be a classic episode.
    Davey Pig surely? With yellow spots.

    Peppa Pig did come out in support for Gordon Browns Labour, so can’t complain about becoming a political football.
    Is Peppa Pig related to Mr Blobby? Time was when he was the key pink TV star du jour.
    Before my time, I had to google mr blobby. What the fuck did they invent that for? 😂
    You seriously need to meet Ludwig and Bod.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uk5anZMoMg0

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7vEyTK3LjM
    Nice try! First one obviously a pastiche of a public information film, I’m not falling for that it’s likely very recent made to look weird.

    I don’t know what to make of the second one other than it made me feel sick.
    You need to update your TV history hinterland, and perhaps snap judgement skills :smile: .

    Both are childrens' TV series from 1975-1977 that ran in the teatime slot. The time that also gave us the Wombles, Ivor the Engine in colour and Paddington Bear. Core childhood territory for middle aged PBers.

    Bod is unusual. Ludwig is surreal, and was based around Beethoven's Music - hence the opening Da-Da-Da-Dum.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludwig_(cartoon)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bod_(TV_series)


    Seriously? I can’t imagine children attention being held by either and the animation in the musical one was like the garden of earthly delights. Horrible. And was The Bod supposed to be an alien?
    Someone replied saying drugs were definitely involved in making these LOL

    Someone at college said we had to watch the clanggers. I saw some old ones on YouTube much better than the new ones, I think because they treated the audience as mature.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    And I think you are trying to set yourself up to say, after SKS loses the next GE, Hur hur hur, I was right and everyone else was wrong, look how clever I am. The thing is, there is no everyone else. SKS's greatest fans on here think he just about scrapes being almost adequate, on a really good day, and that, given Boris, that might just be enough. You really are preaching to the deaf/bored/already converted. And SKSINPM does not buy you out of EICIPM.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    The truth is the Mayor of London has very little power - is that the plan or is it more like the Mayoralty of Manchester or Newham which is in effect the political leadership of the authority? We also don't know what substantive authority any of these new "Mayors" will have - will they be free of capping for Council Tax and will they be able to access central Government money without having to jump through hoops to bid for it?

    It sounds like the new Mayors and governors would have powers equivalent to London Mayors and county councils would get powers equivalent to those of the London Assembly
    Does the GLA have very much power? In theory, it has only scrutiny of the Mayor. The real power still lies with the Boroughs.

    The other side of this is how does any new power for County Councils sit with District/Borough Councils? I'm sure you'd support Epping Forest Conservatives against any attempt by Essex to grab any powers or responsibilities.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878
    Leon said:

    I AM NEGATIVE

    The future of British lithic sex toy carving is secured

    Good news indeed. A reminder that you can still be ill and it not be Covid.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    Great thread.

    I think you absolutely could be right.

    I think there is only you me and Whispering Oracle gets it on here.

    Majority view seems to be that people like SKS and YC are attractive to voters.

    I think some Centrists are in for a shock

    The issue there is that Labour needs (to win) to BOTH (a) be attractive to 30% of voters (so they actually tun out) and (b) be not alarming to 40% of voters. That gives a decent chance of getting to 40 without the Tories getting even more. Corbyn got (a) but not (b). Starmer has (b) but not (a). It remains possible that he can get to (a) by 2023.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274
    Leon said:

    I AM NEGATIVE

    The future of British lithic sex toy carving is secured

    Good news on the test but, honestly... you never miss an opportunity for a plug do you?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited December 2021
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    The truth is the Mayor of London has very little power - is that the plan or is it more like the Mayoralty of Manchester or Newham which is in effect the political leadership of the authority? We also don't know what substantive authority any of these new "Mayors" will have - will they be free of capping for Council Tax and will they be able to access central Government money without having to jump through hoops to bid for it?

    It sounds like the new Mayors and governors would have powers equivalent to London Mayors and county councils would get powers equivalent to those of the London Assembly
    Does the GLA have very much power? In theory, it has only scrutiny of the Mayor. The real power still lies with the Boroughs.

    The other side of this is how does any new power for County Councils sit with District/Borough Councils? I'm sure you'd support Epping Forest Conservatives against any attempt by Essex to grab any powers or responsibilities.
    Most district and borough councils would be merged with county councils to form new uniitary councils, with maybe the biggest counties like Essex split into 2 or 3 unitaries.

    I would have some reservations about it but if it is balanced with some more powers for town and parish councils I would be less concerned.
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