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Why the Conservatives could increase their majority – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageWhy the Conservatives could increase their majority – politicalbetting.com

As has been noted before on this site, the Tories are “uncoalitionable”. [uncoalitionable]  A swing against the party at the next election and loss of seats could leave the Conservative Party still with most seats in a Hung Parliament and yet unable to form a government due to a lack of potential allies.

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 99,680
    edited December 2021
    Could this be a first.

    Oh, yes.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,869

    Could this be a first.

    Oh, yes.

    It's like a Downing Street party where apparently no rules were broken.
  • I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,849
    edited December 2021
    Second, like the Tories in Fort William and Ardnamurchan.

    Edit: ok then, fourth, like the Lib Dems in Fort William and Ardnamurchan.
  • Is Hamilton going to get a penalty for the Mazepin incident?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139

    Is Hamilton going to get a penalty for the Mazepin incident?

    Is it under investigation? I've just seen it on YouTube, and it looked dangerous.

    The circuit looks pants, though.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    Gosh. There is a chap just walked down the train checking on mask compliance.

    Nobody been tasered yet.
  • Is Hamilton going to get a penalty for the Mazepin incident?

    Is it under investigation? I've just seen it on YouTube, and it looked dangerous.

    The circuit looks pants, though.
    He was summoned by the stewards.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 99,680
    edited December 2021
    Omnium said:

    Could this be a first.

    Oh, yes.

    It's like a Downing Street party where apparently no rules were broken.
    I pressed refresh like the rest of you.

    I uploaded this piece hours ago, so no insider trading.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139

    Is Hamilton going to get a penalty for the Mazepin incident?

    Is it under investigation? I've just seen it on YouTube, and it looked dangerous.

    The circuit looks pants, though.
    He was summoned by the stewards.
    Thanks.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    On topic. Reason seven. Peppa Pig might fly 😆
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 99,680
    edited December 2021

    Is Hamilton going to get a penalty for the Mazepin incident?

    Is it under investigation? I've just seen it on YouTube, and it looked dangerous.

    The circuit looks pants, though.
    He was summoned by the stewards.
    Thanks.
    Looks like Michael Masi is saying it is the fault of the marshals who didn't flag anything.
  • How would a 10% swing to Labour translate into the new boundaries?
  • I'm starting to think the next GE might be very similar to 2001 - no one's been particularly blown away by the government's achievements, but the alternatives aren't particularly appealing, the PM is still a likeable swell so give 'em another term. Why not?
  • Could this be a first.

    Oh, yes.

    West Ham look to have done Liverpool a favour in the early kick-off :)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    Another 42,848 COVID-19 cases and 127 coronavirus-related deaths have been recorded in the latest 24-hour period.
  • Back to the bore draws in the chess....
  • Thanks @Philip_Thompson - interesting thoughts.

    What the hell would Labour do if you are right? They would be looking at another decade out of power from 2023/4. So mid-2030s before even a chance.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021

    Another 42,848 COVID-19 cases and 127 coronavirus-related deaths have been recorded in the latest 24-hour period.

    Potential under-reporting of cases in Scotland

    Public Health Scotland (PHS) are investigating a processing issue with UK Government Pillar 2 lab tests contributing to lower than expected cases. This means reported case numbers for Scotland on 4 December are likely lower than would have been expected.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    edited December 2021

    Another 42,848 COVID-19 cases and 127 coronavirus-related deaths have been recorded in the latest 24-hour period.

    Another 42,848 COVID-19 cases and 127 coronavirus-related deaths have been recorded in the latest 24-hour period.

    Potential under-reporting of cases in Scotland
    [deleted - dealt with by edit I see]
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    What might have been, Malcolm?

    I don’t know what happened in the 1:30. We were both on the fastest horses. They were both watching each other, front running for nearly all of it. Normally I like front runners, but facing that wind maybe in the conditions that was the wrong strategy, they shielded the others from the wind, pulled them around through the heavier than expected turf, draining their advantage while doing so?

    My long shot lost by a length. I’m still happy with the two wins though, pocketed 10x my stake.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,869

    Omnium said:

    Could this be a first.

    Oh, yes.

    It's like a Downing Street party where apparently no rules were broken.
    I pressed refresh like the rest of you.

    I uploaded this piece hours ago, so no insider trading.
    I'm completely sure that you did. Forgive the slight fun though at your expense.

  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    Dozens. How many exactly ? 36, 48 ?
  • Thanks for publishing TSE. I hope these points make sense as to why I think we shouldn't rule out an increased majority next time.
  • moonshine said:

    Any attempt to put directly-elected mayors (or governors) atop county councils will be controversial, as it will beg the question - what are county councillors for?

    Although London devolution is generally deemed a moderate success, nobody has yet figured out what the London assembly members are for.

    You know what we don’t have enough? Politicians. Said no one.
    That’s the general tenor of comments underneath the Times article, and it’s the same sentiment that foiled the North East Assembly idea.

    It’s true, though. We don’t need *more* politicians, we just to need to give the existing local ones actual powers and money.
    Simples. Abolish the most incompetent and wasteful level of government: Westminster.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    That was the most impressive element of the documentary....twitter thread.

    Peter Jackson Details How ‘Get Back’ Used Machine Learning to Restore the Beatles’ Sound and Footage
    https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1466882712862527489?s=20
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,632

    I'm starting to think the next GE might be very similar to 2001 - no one's been particularly blown away by the government's achievements, but the alternatives aren't particularly appealing, the PM is still a likeable swell so give 'em another term. Why not?

    The other similarity with 2001 might be the significance of 'new incumbency bounce'

    in both cases the party in governments has a lot of MPs who have just become MPs and if they are sensible will use every opportunity to get them selves well known and ideally well liked in the constancy.

    If I recall correctly the Labour party as a whole had a swing against it of 3 or 4% but become of the 'new incumbency bounce this resulted in a much smaller loss of seats than one might predict.

    the new boundaries, (if they are in force at the time) might limit this to some extent but not completely.
  • Agree with much of this (except the point about the Greens, unfortunately) but I also think there are further reasons:

    1. First-time incumbency bonus.
    Although this will be attenuated somewhat by new boundaries, it will still be a factor in many seats.

    2. Campaign money, having enough of it, and using it on social media.
    Labour have serious money troubles not faced by the Tories, and the Tories were markedly more effective/ruthless/unscrupulous with their use of social media advertising and astroturf groups on social media at GE2019 - a factor which I think is only likely to grow in importance as it becomes more sophisticated.

    3. Labour splits.
    From the outside looking in it still looks like there are too many within Labour who hate each other more than they hate the Tories.

    4. Brexit politics.
    I get a sense that there will be many in the opposition generally who won't be able to help themself, but will talk about how terrible Brexit has been during the election campaign, and the spirit of "I told you so" will harry the voters. Starmer, as former shadow Brexit Secretary, is almost worst-placed to move the Opposition on from Brexit, and this will play badly during the election campaign. This is also an area where the SNP will ensure that the Brexit wound is not allowed to heal.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,568
    edited December 2021
    Nice thread header Philip.

    If Con actually increase their majority again at the 2023 general election (thus virtually guaranteeing another five year term in 2028) Labour really need to consider disbanding and letting a new opposition (some sort of new Labour/Lib-Dem alignment perhaps?) take their place.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    edited December 2021

    That was the most impressive element of the documentary....twitter thread.

    Peter Jackson Details How ‘Get Back’ Used Machine Learning to Restore the Beatles’ Sound and Footage
    https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1466882712862527489?s=20

    More interesting than any of that Beatles rubbish - I recently learnt (*) that Peter Jackson has a very large pre-WW2 airplane collection
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gmZ9X9Aplk
    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2021/01/peter-jackson-and-the-airplane-thief

    Edit: skip to 44 mins in the first link to see a few of them flying...

    (*) Perhaps from on here?
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114

    Thanks for publishing TSE. I hope these points make sense as to why I think we shouldn't rule out an increased majority next time.

    Thanks for writing it Phillip, it’s an interesting article and I wouldn’t rule out out although I’d be disappointed
  • Agree with much of this (except the point about the Greens, unfortunately) but I also think there are further reasons:

    1. First-time incumbency bonus.
    Although this will be attenuated somewhat by new boundaries, it will still be a factor in many seats.

    2. Campaign money, having enough of it, and using it on social media.
    Labour have serious money troubles not faced by the Tories, and the Tories were markedly more effective/ruthless/unscrupulous with their use of social media advertising and astroturf groups on social media at GE2019 - a factor which I think is only likely to grow in importance as it becomes more sophisticated.

    3. Labour splits.
    From the outside looking in it still looks like there are too many within Labour who hate each other more than they hate the Tories.

    4. Brexit politics.
    I get a sense that there will be many in the opposition generally who won't be able to help themself, but will talk about how terrible Brexit has been during the election campaign, and the spirit of "I told you so" will harry the voters. Starmer, as former shadow Brexit Secretary, is almost worst-placed to move the Opposition on from Brexit, and this will play badly during the election campaign. This is also an area where the SNP will ensure that the Brexit wound is not allowed to heal.

    We enjoy picking at the scabs. Gonna be some nasty scar tissue.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    If this happens, I assume it will be down to the residual stink from Corbyn and Sir Keir will be blameless, again

  • Phew.

    No further action on Hamilton for the alleged double waved yellows - "on-board video clearly shows there was no yellow flag displayed, no yellow lights were displayed to that driver and the yellow warning light was not visible on the driver’s steering wheel"

    This does rather beg the question as to why it even got to the stewards but there you are

    "The Race Director reported to the Stewards that the double yellow flag warning on the FIA Marshalling System was activated at Light Panel Number 6 accidentally, for less than one second"


    https://twitter.com/andrewbensonf1/status/1467174217833713665
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,681

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    The wish is father to the thought.

    They have a supremely underwhelming leader. We'll see what happens at the N Shropshire by-election, but I doubt they will do as well as they did at Chesham and Amersham, where HS2 provided the backdrop for the perfect storm for the NimbyDems.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,869

    moonshine said:

    Any attempt to put directly-elected mayors (or governors) atop county councils will be controversial, as it will beg the question - what are county councillors for?

    Although London devolution is generally deemed a moderate success, nobody has yet figured out what the London assembly members are for.

    You know what we don’t have enough? Politicians. Said no one.
    That’s the general tenor of comments underneath the Times article, and it’s the same sentiment that foiled the North East Assembly idea.

    It’s true, though. We don’t need *more* politicians, we just to need to give the existing local ones actual powers and money.
    Simples. Abolish the most incompetent and wasteful level of government: Westminster.
    Tried and tested though, rather than entirely unnecessary!?
  • I so want to have Divock Origi's babies.

    I don't care how messy the conception is.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,681
    Liverpool sneak a late one - to go top of the league.....?
  • Taz said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    Dozens. How many exactly ? 36, 48 ?
    13
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    I so want to have Divock Origi's babies.

    I don't care how messy the conception is.

    What's that song they're not allowed to sing about him at Anfield?!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,301

    I so want to have Divock Origi's babies.

    I don't care how messy the conception is.

    I thought the 01-02 Arsenal record of scoring in every game was safe! Still, 23 games to go, not panicking just yet.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858

    Taz said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    Dozens. How many exactly ? 36, 48 ?
    13
    Norman Baker's dozen.
  • isam said:

    I so want to have Divock Origi's babies.

    I don't care how messy the conception is.

    What's that song they're not allowed to sing about him at Anfield?!
    It is something to do with the image in the banner.

    TBH it isn't that popular a song.

    https://www.express.co.uk/sport/football/1194764/Liverpool-Divock-Origi-Banner-Genk-Champions-League
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    You are relying on the Lib Dems to end the Tory majority? LOL.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    It's very hard for the LibDems to take "dozens" of seats.

    This it the LibDem target list: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    Now, exclude numbers 1 and 3, where they compete with the SNP and the Labour Party, and if you want them to win dozens, you need to move down to number 26 or 27. Those are big (10%) swings needed.

    It gets worse. Quite a few of the seats the LDs did well in in 2019 were traditional Labour-Tory seats: Wimbledon, Cities of London & Westminster, Finchley & Golders Green. Who says they won't revert to type in 2024?

    The LibDems also rely heavily on tactical voting. There are going to be some pretty big changes to the constituency boundaries next time around. That makes persuading people that the LibDem is the prime challenger to the Tories tough.

    Finally, of course, all this assumes that the LibDems are going to be doing reasonably well. They're mired in the single digits today. Now, I am more optimistic than some, simply because I don't think the Greens have really got the hang of politics in the UK, but do you really want to bet that the LDs will reach 14 or 15% next time around?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 99,680
    edited December 2021
    DavidL said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    You are relying on the Lib Dems to end the Tory majority? LOL.
    In the Tory strategy memo mentioned in one of the papers a couple of months ago, that was the number one fear at CCHQ.

    No Corbyn, makes it safe for those Tories who voted Tory in 2019 to switch over to the LDs because there's no worry about Corbyn becoming PM in 2024. That helps a lot in Con/Lab marginals.

    As Philip notes, the Tories are uncoalitionable.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552

    That was the most impressive element of the documentary....twitter thread.

    Peter Jackson Details How ‘Get Back’ Used Machine Learning to Restore the Beatles’ Sound and Footage
    https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1466882712862527489?s=20

    More interesting than any of that Beatles rubbish - I recently learnt (*) that Peter Jackson has a very large pre-WW2 airplane collection
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gmZ9X9Aplk
    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2021/01/peter-jackson-and-the-airplane-thief

    Edit: skip to 44 mins in the first link to see a few of them flying...

    (*) Perhaps from on here?
    As a massive Biggles fan, can I just say WOW.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    BigRich said:

    I'm starting to think the next GE might be very similar to 2001 - no one's been particularly blown away by the government's achievements, but the alternatives aren't particularly appealing, the PM is still a likeable swell so give 'em another term. Why not?

    The other similarity with 2001 might be the significance of 'new incumbency bounce'

    in both cases the party in governments has a lot of MPs who have just become MPs and if they are sensible will use every opportunity to get them selves well known and ideally well liked in the constancy.

    If I recall correctly the Labour party as a whole had a swing against it of 3 or 4% but become of the 'new incumbency bounce this resulted in a much smaller loss of seats than one might predict.

    the new boundaries, (if they are in force at the time) might limit this to some extent but not completely.
    There is not quite as much money to bribe the electorate and boost the standing of individual sitting MPs as there was in 2001 though.
  • tlg86 said:

    I so want to have Divock Origi's babies.

    I don't care how messy the conception is.

    I thought the 01-02 Arsenal record of scoring in every game was safe! Still, 23 games to go, not panicking just yet.
    It's a weird season, when winning one nil feels a bit gutting, am getting used to us scoring at least two goals a game, and averaging 3 a game in the PL.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069

    DavidL said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    You are relying on the Lib Dems to end the Tory majority? LOL.
    In the Tory strategy memo mentioned in one of the papers a couple of months ago, that was the number one fear at CCHQ.

    No Corbyn, makes it safe for those Tories who voted Tory in 2019 to switch over to the LDs because there's no worry about Corbyn becoming PM in 2024. That helps a lot in Con/Lab marginals.

    As Philip notes, the Tories are uncoalitionable.
    Yes, but the Lib Dems are f****** useless at everything except by elections.
  • It would be foolish to rule anything out. That said, I will be very surprised though if the tories don't lose vote share at the next election even though its very hard to see the Tories falling below 40%.

    There's only really handful of seats like Yvette Cooper's and Jon trickett's where labour only held due to a split opposition in 2019 that I can possibly see them gaining in addition to retaining Hartlepool.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,757
    DavidL said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    You are relying on the Lib Dems to end the Tory majority? LOL.
    It is very much the only way Johnson / his successor lose their majority.

    A couple of dozen plus seats for the Lib Dems including those already in the bag on a 5% to 6% swing is no more outrageous than Philip's prediction, considerably less so I would suggest.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    You are relying on the Lib Dems to end the Tory majority? LOL.
    In the Tory strategy memo mentioned in one of the papers a couple of months ago, that was the number one fear at CCHQ.

    No Corbyn, makes it safe for those Tories who voted Tory in 2019 to switch over to the LDs because there's no worry about Corbyn becoming PM in 2024. That helps a lot in Con/Lab marginals.

    As Philip notes, the Tories are uncoalitionable.
    Yes, but the Lib Dems are f****** useless at everything except by elections.
    At general elections these things happen organically.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,519
    edited December 2021
    We could see a period where neither of the main parties break far past 35, 36% mark, I think. Enthusiasm for both the main parties is generally low at the moment and the Greens and Refuk look to be the most interesting wildcards to me, in terms of what they do to the bigger main parties' respective shares.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    I was agreeing with Philip and suggesting this as a bet about a month ago but I also agree with him that 5/2 is seriously skinny odds for a result that would be not much short of incredible, even for a vote winner like Boris. Not tempted at those odds.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,301

    tlg86 said:

    I so want to have Divock Origi's babies.

    I don't care how messy the conception is.

    I thought the 01-02 Arsenal record of scoring in every game was safe! Still, 23 games to go, not panicking just yet.
    It's a weird season, when winning one nil feels a bit gutting, am getting used to us scoring at least two goals a game, and averaging 3 a game in the PL.
    It gets harder to score as the season goes on. Lots of teams have started like a train only to struggle for goals as the season goes on. Man City in 2018-19 had 45 goals after 15 games. They scored 50 in the next 23 games.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,869
    edited December 2021
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    You are relying on the Lib Dems to end the Tory majority? LOL.
    In the Tory strategy memo mentioned in one of the papers a couple of months ago, that was the number one fear at CCHQ.

    No Corbyn, makes it safe for those Tories who voted Tory in 2019 to switch over to the LDs because there's no worry about Corbyn becoming PM in 2024. That helps a lot in Con/Lab marginals.

    As Philip notes, the Tories are uncoalitionable.
    Yes, but the Lib Dems are f****** useless at everything except by elections.
    Indeed.

    The Tories are pretty much running against an open field. There's really little in the way of opposition. Quite how they manage to fuck such an opportunity up baffles me.

    In perhaps 25 years Labour and the LDs won't exist. Labour because they're a 19th Century party, and the LDs because they are crap.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    You are relying on the Lib Dems to end the Tory majority? LOL.
    In the Tory strategy memo mentioned in one of the papers a couple of months ago, that was the number one fear at CCHQ.

    No Corbyn, makes it safe for those Tories who voted Tory in 2019 to switch over to the LDs because there's no worry about Corbyn becoming PM in 2024. That helps a lot in Con/Lab marginals.

    As Philip notes, the Tories are uncoalitionable.
    Yes, but the Lib Dems are f****** useless at everything except by elections.
    At general elections these things happen organically.
    Indeed, with added Tofu. Except when they don't. Like every election since 2010.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    edited December 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    That was the most impressive element of the documentary....twitter thread.

    Peter Jackson Details How ‘Get Back’ Used Machine Learning to Restore the Beatles’ Sound and Footage
    https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1466882712862527489?s=20

    More interesting than any of that Beatles rubbish - I recently learnt (*) that Peter Jackson has a very large pre-WW2 airplane collection
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gmZ9X9Aplk
    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2021/01/peter-jackson-and-the-airplane-thief

    Edit: skip to 44 mins in the first link to see a few of them flying...

    (*) Perhaps from on here?
    As a massive Biggles fan, can I just say WOW.
    IIRC they also make or made replicas to sell. Not just models but actual flying planes, to the original plans as I understand it. No 2/3 scale plastic Spitfires or anything like that. So if you want your own SE.5 to formate on Biggles ... but it seems covid spoilt things.

    https://thevintageaviator.co.nz/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    rcs1000 said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    It's very hard for the LibDems to take "dozens" of seats.

    This it the LibDem target list: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    Now, exclude numbers 1 and 3, where they compete with the SNP and the Labour Party, and if you want them to win dozens, you need to move down to number 26 or 27. Those are big (10%) swings needed.

    It gets worse. Quite a few of the seats the LDs did well in in 2019 were traditional Labour-Tory seats: Wimbledon, Cities of London & Westminster, Finchley & Golders Green. Who says they won't revert to type in 2024?

    The LibDems also rely heavily on tactical voting. There are going to be some pretty big changes to the constituency boundaries next time around. That makes persuading people that the LibDem is the prime challenger to the Tories tough.

    Finally, of course, all this assumes that the LibDems are going to be doing reasonably well. They're mired in the single digits today. Now, I am more optimistic than some, simply because I don't think the Greens have really got the hang of politics in the UK, but do you really want to bet that the LDs will reach 14 or 15% next time around?
    Let me just run down the list.

    Wimbledon becomes a little more Conservative, as it gains a Conservative ward from Kingston. (Which, by contrast, becomes a little more LibDem.) I think that's a possible LD gain, but let's see the Merton council results next year.

    I don't know what's going to happen to Carshalton & Wallington, but it's a leave seat moving away from the LDs, and I doubt Tom Brake will be the candidate next time. Con hold.

    Cheltenham, Winchester - good chances of LD gains.

    Cheadle: my gut is the LDs won't do particularly well in the NW, so Con hold.

    Cambridgeshire South. Big boundary changes thanks to the new St Neots constituency. Con hold.

    Esher & Walton. Loses Cobham & Downside ward, which is split LD/Con. I suspect the LDs will benefit from tactical voting here. LD gain.

    Lewes and Eastbourne, Con holds. Guilford probable LD gain.

    And that's about it. I think that's four or five gains.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    You are relying on the Lib Dems to end the Tory majority? LOL.
    In the Tory strategy memo mentioned in one of the papers a couple of months ago, that was the number one fear at CCHQ.

    No Corbyn, makes it safe for those Tories who voted Tory in 2019 to switch over to the LDs because there's no worry about Corbyn becoming PM in 2024. That helps a lot in Con/Lab marginals.

    As Philip notes, the Tories are uncoalitionable.
    Yes, but the Lib Dems are f****** useless at everything except by elections.
    At general elections these things happen organically.
    Indeed, with added Tofu. Except when they don't. Like every election since 2010.
    2010 was a freak as they were up against my boy Dave, I remember selling the Lib Dems at 98 at that election. Bizarre to think their price with SPIN at one point over 100 seats.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    Omnium said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    You are relying on the Lib Dems to end the Tory majority? LOL.
    In the Tory strategy memo mentioned in one of the papers a couple of months ago, that was the number one fear at CCHQ.

    No Corbyn, makes it safe for those Tories who voted Tory in 2019 to switch over to the LDs because there's no worry about Corbyn becoming PM in 2024. That helps a lot in Con/Lab marginals.

    As Philip notes, the Tories are uncoalitionable.
    Yes, but the Lib Dems are f****** useless at everything except by elections.
    Indeed.

    The Tories are pretty much running against an open field. There's really little in the way of opposition. Quite how they manage to fuck such an opportunity up baffles me.

    In perhaps 25 years Labour and the LDs won't exist. Labour because they're a 19th Century party, and the LDs because they are crap.

    The Tories survive by evolving into what the people want today. It is not impossible that Labour will do the same. I recall Shirley Williams confidently predicting in the mid 80s that there would never be a Labour government again. She was wrong. The problem Labour have is that the Tories are supremely pragmatic about getting behind their vote winners. Labour still seem to regard Blair as something of an embarrassment or a class traitor.

    Hard to disagree about the Lib Dems though.
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I so want to have Divock Origi's babies.

    I don't care how messy the conception is.

    I thought the 01-02 Arsenal record of scoring in every game was safe! Still, 23 games to go, not panicking just yet.
    It's a weird season, when winning one nil feels a bit gutting, am getting used to us scoring at least two goals a game, and averaging 3 a game in the PL.
    It gets harder to score as the season goes on. Lots of teams have started like a train only to struggle for goals as the season goes on. Man City in 2018-19 had 45 goals after 15 games. They scored 50 in the next 23 games.
    I fully expect us not to score for the matches against Leicester, Chelsea, et al when Salah and Mane are away at the Africa Cup of Nations.
  • DavidL said:

    BigRich said:

    I'm starting to think the next GE might be very similar to 2001 - no one's been particularly blown away by the government's achievements, but the alternatives aren't particularly appealing, the PM is still a likeable swell so give 'em another term. Why not?

    The other similarity with 2001 might be the significance of 'new incumbency bounce'

    in both cases the party in governments has a lot of MPs who have just become MPs and if they are sensible will use every opportunity to get them selves well known and ideally well liked in the constancy.

    If I recall correctly the Labour party as a whole had a swing against it of 3 or 4% but become of the 'new incumbency bounce this resulted in a much smaller loss of seats than one might predict.

    the new boundaries, (if they are in force at the time) might limit this to some extent but not completely.
    There is not quite as much money to bribe the electorate and boost the standing of individual sitting MPs as there was in 2001 though.
    The Johnson Ministry is being a lot less subtle about it though. I'd expect people in the relevant constituencies will see a lot of direct targeted advertising about it on social media during the election campaign. The very local pork was another thing I ought to have mentioned.

    And the other obvious thing will be the very popular pre-election cut to the basic rate of income tax. I know there are others who are also seething at the increase in tax on employment income which will be used to cut tax on other income (a tax rise for workers to fund tax cuts for their landlords), but it's going to happen and it will be popular.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,612

    Thanks @Philip_Thompson - interesting thoughts.

    What the hell would Labour do if you are right? They would be looking at another decade out of power from 2023/4. So mid-2030s before even a chance.

    Good question. If this does happen - or if Labour fail to lead an alliance government next time (winning is impossible) they will reflect on 4 leaders in succession who didn't have the 'Number One' leadership quality, following the Tories who did the same before. And in three out of the four (Brown, Wrong Miliband and Jezza) their lack of star quality as PM material was obvious. SKS undoubtedly the best of the bunch. But to this day they are crying out for a David Miliband or Hilary Benn to give them maximum chance.

  • Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That was the most impressive element of the documentary....twitter thread.

    Peter Jackson Details How ‘Get Back’ Used Machine Learning to Restore the Beatles’ Sound and Footage
    https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1466882712862527489?s=20

    More interesting than any of that Beatles rubbish - I recently learnt (*) that Peter Jackson has a very large pre-WW2 airplane collection
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gmZ9X9Aplk
    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2021/01/peter-jackson-and-the-airplane-thief

    Edit: skip to 44 mins in the first link to see a few of them flying...

    (*) Perhaps from on here?
    As a massive Biggles fan, can I just say WOW.
    IIRC they also make or made replicas to sell. Not just models but actual flying planes, to the original plans as I understand it. No 2/3 scale plastic Spitfires or anything like that. So if you want your own SE.5 to formate on Biggles ... but it seems covid spoilt things.

    https://thevintageaviator.co.nz/
    Sopwith Camel...
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,519
    edited December 2021
    DavidL said:

    Omnium said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    You are relying on the Lib Dems to end the Tory majority? LOL.
    In the Tory strategy memo mentioned in one of the papers a couple of months ago, that was the number one fear at CCHQ.

    No Corbyn, makes it safe for those Tories who voted Tory in 2019 to switch over to the LDs because there's no worry about Corbyn becoming PM in 2024. That helps a lot in Con/Lab marginals.

    As Philip notes, the Tories are uncoalitionable.
    Yes, but the Lib Dems are f****** useless at everything except by elections.
    Indeed.

    The Tories are pretty much running against an open field. There's really little in the way of opposition. Quite how they manage to fuck such an opportunity up baffles me.

    In perhaps 25 years Labour and the LDs won't exist. Labour because they're a 19th Century party, and the LDs because they are crap.

    The Tories survive by evolving into what the people want today. It is not impossible that Labour will do the same. I recall Shirley Williams confidently predicting in the mid 80s that there would never be a Labour government again. She was wrong. The problem Labour have is that the Tories are supremely pragmatic about getting behind their vote winners. Labour still seem to regard Blair as something of an embarrassment or a class traitor.

    Hard to disagree about the Lib Dems though.
    If all of Labour thought that at least it would be a more coherent party, at the moment. When half the party think he's only an embarrassment, and the other half think his era represents the only voice of reason, you've got a problem.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    It's very hard for the LibDems to take "dozens" of seats.

    This it the LibDem target list: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    Now, exclude numbers 1 and 3, where they compete with the SNP and the Labour Party, and if you want them to win dozens, you need to move down to number 26 or 27. Those are big (10%) swings needed.

    It gets worse. Quite a few of the seats the LDs did well in in 2019 were traditional Labour-Tory seats: Wimbledon, Cities of London & Westminster, Finchley & Golders Green. Who says they won't revert to type in 2024?

    The LibDems also rely heavily on tactical voting. There are going to be some pretty big changes to the constituency boundaries next time around. That makes persuading people that the LibDem is the prime challenger to the Tories tough.

    Finally, of course, all this assumes that the LibDems are going to be doing reasonably well. They're mired in the single digits today. Now, I am more optimistic than some, simply because I don't think the Greens have really got the hang of politics in the UK, but do you really want to bet that the LDs will reach 14 or 15% next time around?
    Realistically I think the Lib Dems should be looking to take 10-15 seats as a benchmark.

    I'd say their possible maximum no. of gains is about 20. Best case scenario for the Lib Dems would be taking seats like Harrogate and Knaresborough and Woking at the next GE to end up on around 30 seats which would deprive the Tories of power even if Starmer only gains 30-40 seats like Kinnock/Corbyn.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That was the most impressive element of the documentary....twitter thread.

    Peter Jackson Details How ‘Get Back’ Used Machine Learning to Restore the Beatles’ Sound and Footage
    https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1466882712862527489?s=20

    More interesting than any of that Beatles rubbish - I recently learnt (*) that Peter Jackson has a very large pre-WW2 airplane collection
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gmZ9X9Aplk
    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2021/01/peter-jackson-and-the-airplane-thief

    Edit: skip to 44 mins in the first link to see a few of them flying...

    (*) Perhaps from on here?
    As a massive Biggles fan, can I just say WOW.
    IIRC they also make or made replicas to sell. Not just models but actual flying planes, to the original plans as I understand it. No 2/3 scale plastic Spitfires or anything like that. So if you want your own SE.5 to formate on Biggles ... but it seems covid spoilt things.

    https://thevintageaviator.co.nz/
    Sopwith Camel...
    I was going to point that out too :smile:

    It was Biggles' friend at the other squadron who flew an SE5
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,612
    DavidL said:

    Omnium said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    You are relying on the Lib Dems to end the Tory majority? LOL.
    In the Tory strategy memo mentioned in one of the papers a couple of months ago, that was the number one fear at CCHQ.

    No Corbyn, makes it safe for those Tories who voted Tory in 2019 to switch over to the LDs because there's no worry about Corbyn becoming PM in 2024. That helps a lot in Con/Lab marginals.

    As Philip notes, the Tories are uncoalitionable.
    Yes, but the Lib Dems are f****** useless at everything except by elections.
    Indeed.

    The Tories are pretty much running against an open field. There's really little in the way of opposition. Quite how they manage to fuck such an opportunity up baffles me.

    In perhaps 25 years Labour and the LDs won't exist. Labour because they're a 19th Century party, and the LDs because they are crap.

    The Tories survive by evolving into what the people want today. It is not impossible that Labour will do the same. I recall Shirley Williams confidently predicting in the mid 80s that there would never be a Labour government again. She was wrong. The problem Labour have is that the Tories are supremely pragmatic about getting behind their vote winners. Labour still seem to regard Blair as something of an embarrassment or a class traitor.

    Hard to disagree about the Lib Dems though.
    She was wrong, but Labour had to turn itself into the SDP to achieve it.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    Mmm. Thanks for writing @Philip_Thompson.
    Makes a change that a fan of the PM has not merely whinged that there are no pro-government headers. One of the Party of enterprise has got off theIr arse.
    On topic. Seems like a lot of stuff needs to come together at once for this to come off.
    Difficult to see exactly which groups of new voters the Tories can attract. Apart from the Brexit ones not a great many. Would want more than 5's. Possibly double that. But not impossible.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    You are relying on the Lib Dems to end the Tory majority? LOL.
    In the Tory strategy memo mentioned in one of the papers a couple of months ago, that was the number one fear at CCHQ.

    No Corbyn, makes it safe for those Tories who voted Tory in 2019 to switch over to the LDs because there's no worry about Corbyn becoming PM in 2024. That helps a lot in Con/Lab marginals.

    As Philip notes, the Tories are uncoalitionable.
    Yes, but the Lib Dems are f****** useless at everything except by elections.
    At general elections these things happen organically.
    Indeed, with added Tofu. Except when they don't. Like every election since 2010.
    2010 was a freak as they were up against my boy Dave, I remember selling the Lib Dems at 98 at that election. Bizarre to think their price with SPIN at one point over 100 seats.
    It was 2015 when Dave did a real hatchet job on his erstwhile coalition partners. I see no sign that the Lib Dems have recovered yet.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That was the most impressive element of the documentary....twitter thread.

    Peter Jackson Details How ‘Get Back’ Used Machine Learning to Restore the Beatles’ Sound and Footage
    https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1466882712862527489?s=20

    More interesting than any of that Beatles rubbish - I recently learnt (*) that Peter Jackson has a very large pre-WW2 airplane collection
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gmZ9X9Aplk
    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2021/01/peter-jackson-and-the-airplane-thief

    Edit: skip to 44 mins in the first link to see a few of them flying...

    (*) Perhaps from on here?
    As a massive Biggles fan, can I just say WOW.
    IIRC they also make or made replicas to sell. Not just models but actual flying planes, to the original plans as I understand it. No 2/3 scale plastic Spitfires or anything like that. So if you want your own SE.5 to formate on Biggles ... but it seems covid spoilt things.

    https://thevintageaviator.co.nz/
    Sopwith Camel...
    Biggles of 266. One of favourites as a kid.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    edited December 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That was the most impressive element of the documentary....twitter thread.

    Peter Jackson Details How ‘Get Back’ Used Machine Learning to Restore the Beatles’ Sound and Footage
    https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1466882712862527489?s=20

    More interesting than any of that Beatles rubbish - I recently learnt (*) that Peter Jackson has a very large pre-WW2 airplane collection
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gmZ9X9Aplk
    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2021/01/peter-jackson-and-the-airplane-thief

    Edit: skip to 44 mins in the first link to see a few of them flying...

    (*) Perhaps from on here?
    As a massive Biggles fan, can I just say WOW.
    IIRC they also make or made replicas to sell. Not just models but actual flying planes, to the original plans as I understand it. No 2/3 scale plastic Spitfires or anything like that. So if you want your own SE.5 to formate on Biggles ... but it seems covid spoilt things.

    https://thevintageaviator.co.nz/
    Sopwith Camel...
    I was going to point that out too :smile:

    It was Biggles' friend at the other squadron who flew an SE5
    Ah. I stand corrected. But here it was/is not available unfortunately. Probably just as well given how tricky it was.

    I must check Biggles Flies Undone to see if he ever had a flip in a SE.5A ...

    Edit: But the Sopwith Pup replica would have the Biggles imprimatur. So all is well.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,511
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    It's very hard for the LibDems to take "dozens" of seats.

    This it the LibDem target list: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    Now, exclude numbers 1 and 3, where they compete with the SNP and the Labour Party, and if you want them to win dozens, you need to move down to number 26 or 27. Those are big (10%) swings needed.

    It gets worse. Quite a few of the seats the LDs did well in in 2019 were traditional Labour-Tory seats: Wimbledon, Cities of London & Westminster, Finchley & Golders Green. Who says they won't revert to type in 2024?

    The LibDems also rely heavily on tactical voting. There are going to be some pretty big changes to the constituency boundaries next time around. That makes persuading people that the LibDem is the prime challenger to the Tories tough.

    Finally, of course, all this assumes that the LibDems are going to be doing reasonably well. They're mired in the single digits today. Now, I am more optimistic than some, simply because I don't think the Greens have really got the hang of politics in the UK, but do you really want to bet that the LDs will reach 14 or 15% next time around?
    Let me just run down the list.

    Wimbledon becomes a little more Conservative, as it gains a Conservative ward from Kingston. (Which, by contrast, becomes a little more LibDem.) I think that's a possible LD gain, but let's see the Merton council results next year.

    I don't know what's going to happen to Carshalton & Wallington, but it's a leave seat moving away from the LDs, and I doubt Tom Brake will be the candidate next time. Con hold.

    Cheltenham, Winchester - good chances of LD gains.

    Cheadle: my gut is the LDs won't do particularly well in the NW, so Con hold.

    Cambridgeshire South. Big boundary changes thanks to the new St Neots constituency. Con hold.

    Esher & Walton. Loses Cobham & Downside ward, which is split LD/Con. I suspect the LDs will benefit from tactical voting here. LD gain.

    Lewes and Eastbourne, Con holds. Guilford probable LD gain.

    And that's about it. I think that's four or five gains.
    I think you could be wrong about Lewes, which was Lib Dem from 1997-2015, and has some Brighton overspill in recent years. Depends a bit on the stickiness of the Green vote, though.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021
    edited December 2021
    Great header Philip.

    Not impossible at all. SKS has taken Lab from toxic to unremarkable, if that. Which is no small and a necessary achievement but still.

    Would anyone march to the polls at the next GE with a fire in their heart? Um, no.

    The Cons would have (had) to mess up on a gigantic and very noticeable scale. They haven't done this, albeit the global Covid post mortem has yet to be undertaken (!).

    The vote will to a large extent rely on people like me. Ex Cons. I'm not at Lab yet by s long chalk, which leaves a protest vote. And people like me are not super keen on protest votes.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That was the most impressive element of the documentary....twitter thread.

    Peter Jackson Details How ‘Get Back’ Used Machine Learning to Restore the Beatles’ Sound and Footage
    https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1466882712862527489?s=20

    More interesting than any of that Beatles rubbish - I recently learnt (*) that Peter Jackson has a very large pre-WW2 airplane collection
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gmZ9X9Aplk
    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2021/01/peter-jackson-and-the-airplane-thief

    Edit: skip to 44 mins in the first link to see a few of them flying...

    (*) Perhaps from on here?
    As a massive Biggles fan, can I just say WOW.
    IIRC they also make or made replicas to sell. Not just models but actual flying planes, to the original plans as I understand it. No 2/3 scale plastic Spitfires or anything like that. So if you want your own SE.5 to formate on Biggles ... but it seems covid spoilt things.

    https://thevintageaviator.co.nz/
    The Vanity Fair article has more details: Covid won't have helped, but it sounds as though the place was (ahem) badly run, and Jackson needs another hit film or two.

    Discovering Jackson manufactured and collected vintage planes was a real surprise - a bit like Rod Stewart and his model railway. I wonder what's next: Kate Bush is into mountaineering and wants to become an eight-thousander? Kim Kardashian teaches history at a down-at-heel school in Chicago? Britney Spears is an expert in semiconductor physics?

    Oh wait, the latter one is, of course, true. Here's a website to prove it - and we all know everything on t'Internet is true...
    http://britneyspears.ac/lasers.htm
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    You are relying on the Lib Dems to end the Tory majority? LOL.
    In the Tory strategy memo mentioned in one of the papers a couple of months ago, that was the number one fear at CCHQ.

    No Corbyn, makes it safe for those Tories who voted Tory in 2019 to switch over to the LDs because there's no worry about Corbyn becoming PM in 2024. That helps a lot in Con/Lab marginals.

    As Philip notes, the Tories are uncoalitionable.
    Yes, but the Lib Dems are f****** useless at everything except by elections.
    At general elections these things happen organically.
    Indeed, with added Tofu. Except when they don't. Like every election since 2010.
    2010 was a freak as they were up against my boy Dave, I remember selling the Lib Dems at 98 at that election. Bizarre to think their price with SPIN at one point over 100 seats.
    It was 2015 when Dave did a real hatchet job on his erstwhile coalition partners. I see no sign that the Lib Dems have recovered yet.
    The LDs need three things:

    First, they need an issue where they can differentiate themselves, where the two main parties are in agreement, and they can carve out a niche, as happened with Iraq.

    Second, they need Labour voters to forget the coalition, and tactically vote for them.

    Third, they need there to be general annoyance with the government, manifesting itself in improved local government election results (and which allows the LibDems to portray themselves as the local challengers).

    Of these, they don't have the first. There is maybe some evidence of the second, and while LibDem local results have been improving (they gained councillors in the last three rounds of local elections), it is off a very low base.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,612

    rcs1000 said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    It's very hard for the LibDems to take "dozens" of seats.

    This it the LibDem target list: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    Now, exclude numbers 1 and 3, where they compete with the SNP and the Labour Party, and if you want them to win dozens, you need to move down to number 26 or 27. Those are big (10%) swings needed.

    It gets worse. Quite a few of the seats the LDs did well in in 2019 were traditional Labour-Tory seats: Wimbledon, Cities of London & Westminster, Finchley & Golders Green. Who says they won't revert to type in 2024?

    The LibDems also rely heavily on tactical voting. There are going to be some pretty big changes to the constituency boundaries next time around. That makes persuading people that the LibDem is the prime challenger to the Tories tough.

    Finally, of course, all this assumes that the LibDems are going to be doing reasonably well. They're mired in the single digits today. Now, I am more optimistic than some, simply because I don't think the Greens have really got the hang of politics in the UK, but do you really want to bet that the LDs will reach 14 or 15% next time around?
    Realistically I think the Lib Dems should be looking to take 10-15 seats as a benchmark.

    I'd say their possible maximum no. of gains is about 20. Best case scenario for the Lib Dems would be taking seats like Harrogate and Knaresborough and Woking at the next GE to end up on around 30 seats which would deprive the Tories of power even if Starmer only gains 30-40 seats like Kinnock/Corbyn.
    This is very much SKS's only realistic prospect - to just squeak home to deprive the Tories of government by, though winning fewer seats than the Tories (probably), having more friends. 40 Lab and 20 LD gains would do it if he can square the SNP.

    Of course this is a tough scene for the SNP, who may have to actually hold (and lose) Ref2 in that case rather then blame Boris for not allowing the Ref2 that the SNP don't want.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That was the most impressive element of the documentary....twitter thread.

    Peter Jackson Details How ‘Get Back’ Used Machine Learning to Restore the Beatles’ Sound and Footage
    https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1466882712862527489?s=20

    More interesting than any of that Beatles rubbish - I recently learnt (*) that Peter Jackson has a very large pre-WW2 airplane collection
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gmZ9X9Aplk
    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2021/01/peter-jackson-and-the-airplane-thief

    Edit: skip to 44 mins in the first link to see a few of them flying...

    (*) Perhaps from on here?
    As a massive Biggles fan, can I just say WOW.
    IIRC they also make or made replicas to sell. Not just models but actual flying planes, to the original plans as I understand it. No 2/3 scale plastic Spitfires or anything like that. So if you want your own SE.5 to formate on Biggles ... but it seems covid spoilt things.

    https://thevintageaviator.co.nz/
    The Vanity Fair article has more details: Covid won't have helped, but it sounds as though the place was (ahem) badly run, and Jackson needs another hit film or two.

    Discovering Jackson manufactured and collected vintage planes was a real surprise - a bit like Rod Stewart and his model railway. I wonder what's next: Kate Bush is into mountaineering and wants to become an eight-thousander? Kim Kardashian teaches history at a down-at-heel school in Chicago? Britney Spears is an expert in semiconductor physics?

    Oh wait, the latter one is, of course, true. Here's a website to prove it - and we all know everything on t'Internet is true...
    http://britneyspears.ac/lasers.htm
    I wouldn't instantly dismiss such a thing, given Hedy Lamarr's second job (frequency hopping tech).

    https://www.womenshistory.org/education-resources/biographies/hedy-lamarr
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    It's very hard for the LibDems to take "dozens" of seats.

    This it the LibDem target list: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    Now, exclude numbers 1 and 3, where they compete with the SNP and the Labour Party, and if you want them to win dozens, you need to move down to number 26 or 27. Those are big (10%) swings needed.

    It gets worse. Quite a few of the seats the LDs did well in in 2019 were traditional Labour-Tory seats: Wimbledon, Cities of London & Westminster, Finchley & Golders Green. Who says they won't revert to type in 2024?

    The LibDems also rely heavily on tactical voting. There are going to be some pretty big changes to the constituency boundaries next time around. That makes persuading people that the LibDem is the prime challenger to the Tories tough.

    Finally, of course, all this assumes that the LibDems are going to be doing reasonably well. They're mired in the single digits today. Now, I am more optimistic than some, simply because I don't think the Greens have really got the hang of politics in the UK, but do you really want to bet that the LDs will reach 14 or 15% next time around?
    Let me just run down the list.

    Wimbledon becomes a little more Conservative, as it gains a Conservative ward from Kingston. (Which, by contrast, becomes a little more LibDem.) I think that's a possible LD gain, but let's see the Merton council results next year.

    I don't know what's going to happen to Carshalton & Wallington, but it's a leave seat moving away from the LDs, and I doubt Tom Brake will be the candidate next time. Con hold.

    Cheltenham, Winchester - good chances of LD gains.

    Cheadle: my gut is the LDs won't do particularly well in the NW, so Con hold.

    Cambridgeshire South. Big boundary changes thanks to the new St Neots constituency. Con hold.

    Esher & Walton. Loses Cobham & Downside ward, which is split LD/Con. I suspect the LDs will benefit from tactical voting here. LD gain.

    Lewes and Eastbourne, Con holds. Guilford probable LD gain.

    And that's about it. I think that's four or five gains.
    I think you could be wrong about Lewes, which was Lib Dem from 1997-2015, and has some Brighton overspill in recent years. Depends a bit on the stickiness of the Green vote, though.
    Lewes is a classic example of why the LDs will find it hard in 2024.

    Maria Caulfield got 47.9% of the vote. Labour has been squeezed to almost deposit losing territory already. Unless the Con share is actually down next time around, I think they'll hold.

    (For the record, I think the former LibDem MP, Norman Baker, was an absolute star.)
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,612

    Agree with much of this (except the point about the Greens, unfortunately) but I also think there are further reasons:

    1. First-time incumbency bonus.
    Although this will be attenuated somewhat by new boundaries, it will still be a factor in many seats.

    2. Campaign money, having enough of it, and using it on social media.
    Labour have serious money troubles not faced by the Tories, and the Tories were markedly more effective/ruthless/unscrupulous with their use of social media advertising and astroturf groups on social media at GE2019 - a factor which I think is only likely to grow in importance as it becomes more sophisticated.

    3. Labour splits.
    From the outside looking in it still looks like there are too many within Labour who hate each other more than they hate the Tories.

    4. Brexit politics.
    I get a sense that there will be many in the opposition generally who won't be able to help themself, but will talk about how terrible Brexit has been during the election campaign, and the spirit of "I told you so" will harry the voters. Starmer, as former shadow Brexit Secretary, is almost worst-placed to move the Opposition on from Brexit, and this will play badly during the election campaign. This is also an area where the SNP will ensure that the Brexit wound is not allowed to heal.

    The last point is something of a campaign bull point for the Tories. How exactly is a minority remain supporting Labour government, requiring support from LDs and SNP, who would rejoin tomorrow, going to be a convincing leader of the post Brexit project? To lead a rejoin project with popular support is one thing. To steer the tricky post Brexit waters as a government which no-one on the planet thinks actually supports what it is doing is another. If the Tories campaign effectively (which they are good at) it could cause problems.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,301
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    You are relying on the Lib Dems to end the Tory majority? LOL.
    In the Tory strategy memo mentioned in one of the papers a couple of months ago, that was the number one fear at CCHQ.

    No Corbyn, makes it safe for those Tories who voted Tory in 2019 to switch over to the LDs because there's no worry about Corbyn becoming PM in 2024. That helps a lot in Con/Lab marginals.

    As Philip notes, the Tories are uncoalitionable.
    Yes, but the Lib Dems are f****** useless at everything except by elections.
    At general elections these things happen organically.
    Indeed, with added Tofu. Except when they don't. Like every election since 2010.
    2010 was a freak as they were up against my boy Dave, I remember selling the Lib Dems at 98 at that election. Bizarre to think their price with SPIN at one point over 100 seats.
    It was 2015 when Dave did a real hatchet job on his erstwhile coalition partners. I see no sign that the Lib Dems have recovered yet.
    The LDs need three things:

    First, they need an issue where they can differentiate themselves, where the two main parties are in agreement, and they can carve out a niche, as happened with Iraq.

    Second, they need Labour voters to forget the coalition, and tactically vote for them.

    Third, they need there to be general annoyance with the government, manifesting itself in improved local government election results (and which allows the LibDems to portray themselves as the local challengers).

    Of these, they don't have the first. There is maybe some evidence of the second, and while LibDem local results have been improving (they gained councillors in the last three rounds of local elections), it is off a very low base.
    I think those things would help the Lib Dems, but I think you've missed the really big one:

    Would voters in Guildford prefer a Labour-SNP-LD coalition to the Tories? If the Lib Dems rule out propping up the Tories, then it's largely out of their hands as to whether such voters will vote for them.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That was the most impressive element of the documentary....twitter thread.

    Peter Jackson Details How ‘Get Back’ Used Machine Learning to Restore the Beatles’ Sound and Footage
    https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1466882712862527489?s=20

    More interesting than any of that Beatles rubbish - I recently learnt (*) that Peter Jackson has a very large pre-WW2 airplane collection
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gmZ9X9Aplk
    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2021/01/peter-jackson-and-the-airplane-thief

    Edit: skip to 44 mins in the first link to see a few of them flying...

    (*) Perhaps from on here?
    As a massive Biggles fan, can I just say WOW.
    IIRC they also make or made replicas to sell. Not just models but actual flying planes, to the original plans as I understand it. No 2/3 scale plastic Spitfires or anything like that. So if you want your own SE.5 to formate on Biggles ... but it seems covid spoilt things.

    https://thevintageaviator.co.nz/
    The Vanity Fair article has more details: Covid won't have helped, but it sounds as though the place was (ahem) badly run, and Jackson needs another hit film or two.

    Discovering Jackson manufactured and collected vintage planes was a real surprise - a bit like Rod Stewart and his model railway. I wonder what's next: Kate Bush is into mountaineering and wants to become an eight-thousander? Kim Kardashian teaches history at a down-at-heel school in Chicago? Britney Spears is an expert in semiconductor physics?

    Oh wait, the latter one is, of course, true. Here's a website to prove it - and we all know everything on t'Internet is true...
    http://britneyspears.ac/lasers.htm
    I wouldn't instantly dismiss such a thing, given Hedy Lamarr's second job (frequency hopping tech).

    https://www.womenshistory.org/education-resources/biographies/hedy-lamarr
    There was a good documentary about Hedy Lamar on the BBC a few years ago. She is one of Mrs J's heroines; Mrs J's masters dissertation was in mutual coupling in steerable T/R modules for radar systems, and involved frequency-hopping.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    algarkirk said:

    Agree with much of this (except the point about the Greens, unfortunately) but I also think there are further reasons:

    1. First-time incumbency bonus.
    Although this will be attenuated somewhat by new boundaries, it will still be a factor in many seats.

    2. Campaign money, having enough of it, and using it on social media.
    Labour have serious money troubles not faced by the Tories, and the Tories were markedly more effective/ruthless/unscrupulous with their use of social media advertising and astroturf groups on social media at GE2019 - a factor which I think is only likely to grow in importance as it becomes more sophisticated.

    3. Labour splits.
    From the outside looking in it still looks like there are too many within Labour who hate each other more than they hate the Tories.

    4. Brexit politics.
    I get a sense that there will be many in the opposition generally who won't be able to help themself, but will talk about how terrible Brexit has been during the election campaign, and the spirit of "I told you so" will harry the voters. Starmer, as former shadow Brexit Secretary, is almost worst-placed to move the Opposition on from Brexit, and this will play badly during the election campaign. This is also an area where the SNP will ensure that the Brexit wound is not allowed to heal.

    The last point is something of a campaign bull point for the Tories. How exactly is a minority remain supporting Labour government, requiring support from LDs and SNP, who would rejoin tomorrow, going to be a convincing leader of the post Brexit project? To lead a rejoin project with popular support is one thing. To steer the tricky post Brexit waters as a government which no-one on the planet thinks actually supports what it is doing is another. If the Tories campaign effectively (which they are good at) it could cause problems.

    Sounds like the Theresa May era Tory govt trying to get the referendum vote past the MPs
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 5,704
    edited December 2021

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That was the most impressive element of the documentary....twitter thread.

    Peter Jackson Details How ‘Get Back’ Used Machine Learning to Restore the Beatles’ Sound and Footage
    https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1466882712862527489?s=20

    More interesting than any of that Beatles rubbish - I recently learnt (*) that Peter Jackson has a very large pre-WW2 airplane collection
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gmZ9X9Aplk
    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2021/01/peter-jackson-and-the-airplane-thief

    Edit: skip to 44 mins in the first link to see a few of them flying...

    (*) Perhaps from on here?
    As a massive Biggles fan, can I just say WOW.
    IIRC they also make or made replicas to sell. Not just models but actual flying planes, to the original plans as I understand it. No 2/3 scale plastic Spitfires or anything like that. So if you want your own SE.5 to formate on Biggles ... but it seems covid spoilt things.

    https://thevintageaviator.co.nz/
    The Vanity Fair article has more details: Covid won't have helped, but it sounds as though the place was (ahem) badly run, and Jackson needs another hit film or two.

    Discovering Jackson manufactured and collected vintage planes was a real surprise - a bit like Rod Stewart and his model railway. I wonder what's next: Kate Bush is into mountaineering and wants to become an eight-thousander? Kim Kardashian teaches history at a down-at-heel school in Chicago? Britney Spears is an expert in semiconductor physics?

    Oh wait, the latter one is, of course, true. Here's a website to prove it - and we all know everything on t'Internet is true...
    http://britneyspears.ac/lasers.htm
    Tuns out Kate Bush was a fan of May (T, not B ):
    "I actually really like her and think she's wonderful. I think it's the best thing that's happened to us in a long time ... It is great to have a woman in charge of the country. She's very sensible and I think that's a good thing at this point in time."
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    You are relying on the Lib Dems to end the Tory majority? LOL.
    In the Tory strategy memo mentioned in one of the papers a couple of months ago, that was the number one fear at CCHQ.

    No Corbyn, makes it safe for those Tories who voted Tory in 2019 to switch over to the LDs because there's no worry about Corbyn becoming PM in 2024. That helps a lot in Con/Lab marginals.

    As Philip notes, the Tories are uncoalitionable.
    Yes, but the Lib Dems are f****** useless at everything except by elections.
    At general elections these things happen organically.
    Indeed, with added Tofu. Except when they don't. Like every election since 2010.
    2010 was a freak as they were up against my boy Dave, I remember selling the Lib Dems at 98 at that election. Bizarre to think their price with SPIN at one point over 100 seats.
    It was 2015 when Dave did a real hatchet job on his erstwhile coalition partners. I see no sign that the Lib Dems have recovered yet.
    The LDs need three things:

    First, they need an issue where they can differentiate themselves, where the two main parties are in agreement, and they can carve out a niche, as happened with Iraq.

    Second, they need Labour voters to forget the coalition, and tactically vote for them.

    Third, they need there to be general annoyance with the government, manifesting itself in improved local government election results (and which allows the LibDems to portray themselves as the local challengers).

    Of these, they don't have the first. There is maybe some evidence of the second, and while LibDem local results have been improving (they gained councillors in the last three rounds of local elections), it is off a very low base.
    I think those things would help the Lib Dems, but I think you've missed the really big one:

    Would voters in Guildford prefer a Labour-SNP-LD coalition to the Tories? If the Lib Dems rule out propping up the Tories, then it's largely out of their hands as to whether such voters will vote for them.
    Well, we'll see, but don't forget the Conservatives only got 45% of the vote in Guilford last time around - and then the LibDems would have been getting into coalition with Corbyn.

    Guilford is a seat that's susceptible to a little bit of tactical voting, even if the Conservatives maintain their vote share.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    algarkirk said:

    Agree with much of this (except the point about the Greens, unfortunately) but I also think there are further reasons:

    1. First-time incumbency bonus.
    Although this will be attenuated somewhat by new boundaries, it will still be a factor in many seats.

    2. Campaign money, having enough of it, and using it on social media.
    Labour have serious money troubles not faced by the Tories, and the Tories were markedly more effective/ruthless/unscrupulous with their use of social media advertising and astroturf groups on social media at GE2019 - a factor which I think is only likely to grow in importance as it becomes more sophisticated.

    3. Labour splits.
    From the outside looking in it still looks like there are too many within Labour who hate each other more than they hate the Tories.

    4. Brexit politics.
    I get a sense that there will be many in the opposition generally who won't be able to help themself, but will talk about how terrible Brexit has been during the election campaign, and the spirit of "I told you so" will harry the voters. Starmer, as former shadow Brexit Secretary, is almost worst-placed to move the Opposition on from Brexit, and this will play badly during the election campaign. This is also an area where the SNP will ensure that the Brexit wound is not allowed to heal.

    The last point is something of a campaign bull point for the Tories. How exactly is a minority remain supporting Labour government, requiring support from LDs and SNP, who would rejoin tomorrow, going to be a convincing leader of the post Brexit project? To lead a rejoin project with popular support is one thing. To steer the tricky post Brexit waters as a government which no-one on the planet thinks actually supports what it is doing is another. If the Tories campaign effectively (which they are good at) it could cause problems.

    I think Starmer's Labour party has actually done a reasonably good job of moving on from Brexit. And I presume that their policy for 2024 will be "No rejoin, but a more constructive relationship with the EU", that might resonate reasonably well.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,301
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/dec/04/arthur-labinjo-hughes-abuse-cases-being-missed-due-to-funding-cuts

    Herbert Laming said the reduction in funding for social care in the last 10 years meant children like Arthur, whose abuse and death has shocked the nation, were being missed.

    Possibly the worst take on this horrible story. The TV news said that the boy's uncle reported concerns on a number of occasions.

    Perhaps social workers are under pressure because of financial constraints. But my God, if they try to argue that they fucked up because of them in this particular case, they need locking up.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,331

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That was the most impressive element of the documentary....twitter thread.

    Peter Jackson Details How ‘Get Back’ Used Machine Learning to Restore the Beatles’ Sound and Footage
    https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1466882712862527489?s=20

    More interesting than any of that Beatles rubbish - I recently learnt (*) that Peter Jackson has a very large pre-WW2 airplane collection
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gmZ9X9Aplk
    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2021/01/peter-jackson-and-the-airplane-thief

    Edit: skip to 44 mins in the first link to see a few of them flying...

    (*) Perhaps from on here?
    As a massive Biggles fan, can I just say WOW.
    IIRC they also make or made replicas to sell. Not just models but actual flying planes, to the original plans as I understand it. No 2/3 scale plastic Spitfires or anything like that. So if you want your own SE.5 to formate on Biggles ... but it seems covid spoilt things.

    https://thevintageaviator.co.nz/
    The Vanity Fair article has more details: Covid won't have helped, but it sounds as though the place was (ahem) badly run, and Jackson needs another hit film or two.

    Discovering Jackson manufactured and collected vintage planes was a real surprise - a bit like Rod Stewart and his model railway. I wonder what's next: Kate Bush is into mountaineering and wants to become an eight-thousander? Kim Kardashian teaches history at a down-at-heel school in Chicago? Britney Spears is an expert in semiconductor physics?

    Oh wait, the latter one is, of course, true. Here's a website to prove it - and we all know everything on t'Internet is true...
    http://britneyspears.ac/lasers.htm
    I wouldn't instantly dismiss such a thing, given Hedy Lamarr's second job (frequency hopping tech).

    https://www.womenshistory.org/education-resources/biographies/hedy-lamarr
    There was a good documentary about Hedy Lamar on the BBC a few years ago. She is one of Mrs J's heroines; Mrs J's masters dissertation was in mutual coupling in steerable T/R modules for radar systems, and involved frequency-hopping.
    Lucky (or smart) to escape Germany (and a toxic marriage) in 1937.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,779

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That was the most impressive element of the documentary....twitter thread.

    Peter Jackson Details How ‘Get Back’ Used Machine Learning to Restore the Beatles’ Sound and Footage
    https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1466882712862527489?s=20

    More interesting than any of that Beatles rubbish - I recently learnt (*) that Peter Jackson has a very large pre-WW2 airplane collection
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gmZ9X9Aplk
    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2021/01/peter-jackson-and-the-airplane-thief

    Edit: skip to 44 mins in the first link to see a few of them flying...

    (*) Perhaps from on here?
    As a massive Biggles fan, can I just say WOW.
    IIRC they also make or made replicas to sell. Not just models but actual flying planes, to the original plans as I understand it. No 2/3 scale plastic Spitfires or anything like that. So if you want your own SE.5 to formate on Biggles ... but it seems covid spoilt things.

    https://thevintageaviator.co.nz/
    The Vanity Fair article has more details: Covid won't have helped, but it sounds as though the place was (ahem) badly run, and Jackson needs another hit film or two.

    Discovering Jackson manufactured and collected vintage planes was a real surprise - a bit like Rod Stewart and his model railway. I wonder what's next: Kate Bush is into mountaineering and wants to become an eight-thousander? Kim Kardashian teaches history at a down-at-heel school in Chicago? Britney Spears is an expert in semiconductor physics?

    Oh wait, the latter one is, of course, true. Here's a website to prove it - and we all know everything on t'Internet is true...
    http://britneyspears.ac/lasers.htm
    Tuns out Kate Bush was a fan of May (T, not B ):
    "I actually really like her and think she's wonderful. I think it's the best thing that's happened to us in a long time ... It is great to have a woman in charge of the country. She's very sensible and I think that's a good thing at this point in time."
    Wow. Unbelievable.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,519
    edited December 2021
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    You are relying on the Lib Dems to end the Tory majority? LOL.
    In the Tory strategy memo mentioned in one of the papers a couple of months ago, that was the number one fear at CCHQ.

    No Corbyn, makes it safe for those Tories who voted Tory in 2019 to switch over to the LDs because there's no worry about Corbyn becoming PM in 2024. That helps a lot in Con/Lab marginals.

    As Philip notes, the Tories are uncoalitionable.
    Yes, but the Lib Dems are f****** useless at everything except by elections.
    At general elections these things happen organically.
    Indeed, with added Tofu. Except when they don't. Like every election since 2010.
    2010 was a freak as they were up against my boy Dave, I remember selling the Lib Dems at 98 at that election. Bizarre to think their price with SPIN at one point over 100 seats.
    It was 2015 when Dave did a real hatchet job on his erstwhile coalition partners. I see no sign that the Lib Dems have recovered yet.
    The LDs need three things:

    First, they need an issue where they can differentiate themselves, where the two main parties are in agreement, and they can carve out a niche, as happened with Iraq.

    Second, they need Labour voters to forget the coalition, and tactically vote for them.

    Third, they need there to be general annoyance with the government, manifesting itself in improved local government election results (and which allows the LibDems to portray themselves as the local challengers).

    Of these, they don't have the first. There is maybe some evidence of the second, and while LibDem local results have been improving (they gained councillors in the last three rounds of local elections), it is off a very low base.
    I think those things would help the Lib Dems, but I think you've missed the really big one:

    Would voters in Guildford prefer a Labour-SNP-LD coalition to the Tories? If the Lib Dems rule out propping up the Tories, then it's largely out of their hands as to whether such voters will vote for them.
    TOPPING said:

    Great header Philip.

    Not impossible at all. SKS has taken Lab from toxic to unremarkable, if that. Which is no small and a necessary achievement but still.

    Would anyone march to the polls at the next GE with a fire in their heart? Um, no.

    The Cons would have (had) to mess up on a gigantic and very noticeable scale. They haven't done this, albeit the global Covid post mortem has yet to be undertaken (!).

    The vote will to a large extent rely on people like me. Ex Cons. I'm not at Lab yet by s long chalk, which leaves a protest vote. And people like me are not super keen on protest votes.

    I agree with parts of that, except that I'm really not sure that they haven't already messed up with the corruption issue. Their vote looks much softer to me at the moment, and if the sleaze issue reignites they could be back in the low 'thirties, I think, with stay-at-home voters combining with refuk switchers. Conversely I don't really see where, or what they're going to get a boost from to shift past the 35-36% mark they're scrabbling about in.
  • Hurrah, I think Verstappen has just handed the title to Sir Lewis.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,301
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    You are relying on the Lib Dems to end the Tory majority? LOL.
    In the Tory strategy memo mentioned in one of the papers a couple of months ago, that was the number one fear at CCHQ.

    No Corbyn, makes it safe for those Tories who voted Tory in 2019 to switch over to the LDs because there's no worry about Corbyn becoming PM in 2024. That helps a lot in Con/Lab marginals.

    As Philip notes, the Tories are uncoalitionable.
    Yes, but the Lib Dems are f****** useless at everything except by elections.
    At general elections these things happen organically.
    Indeed, with added Tofu. Except when they don't. Like every election since 2010.
    2010 was a freak as they were up against my boy Dave, I remember selling the Lib Dems at 98 at that election. Bizarre to think their price with SPIN at one point over 100 seats.
    It was 2015 when Dave did a real hatchet job on his erstwhile coalition partners. I see no sign that the Lib Dems have recovered yet.
    The LDs need three things:

    First, they need an issue where they can differentiate themselves, where the two main parties are in agreement, and they can carve out a niche, as happened with Iraq.

    Second, they need Labour voters to forget the coalition, and tactically vote for them.

    Third, they need there to be general annoyance with the government, manifesting itself in improved local government election results (and which allows the LibDems to portray themselves as the local challengers).

    Of these, they don't have the first. There is maybe some evidence of the second, and while LibDem local results have been improving (they gained councillors in the last three rounds of local elections), it is off a very low base.
    I think those things would help the Lib Dems, but I think you've missed the really big one:

    Would voters in Guildford prefer a Labour-SNP-LD coalition to the Tories? If the Lib Dems rule out propping up the Tories, then it's largely out of their hands as to whether such voters will vote for them.
    Well, we'll see, but don't forget the Conservatives only got 45% of the vote in Guilford last time around - and then the LibDems would have been getting into coalition with Corbyn.

    Guilford is a seat that's susceptible to a little bit of tactical voting, even if the Conservatives maintain their vote share.
    Fascinating seat in many ways. What happens to Anne Milton's vote (7.4%)? What difference will boundary changes make?

    Of course, we also don't know the extent to which voters in such seats think that the Tories may lose the election. The Lib Dems could do quite well if it looks like it won't matter how Guildford votes.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    SandraMc said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/dec/04/arthur-labinjo-hughes-abuse-cases-being-missed-due-to-funding-cuts

    Herbert Laming said the reduction in funding for social care in the last 10 years meant children like Arthur, whose abuse and death has shocked the nation, were being missed.

    Possibly the worst take on this horrible story. The TV news said that the boy's uncle reported concerns on a number of occasions.

    Perhaps social workers are under pressure because of financial constraints. But my God, if they try to argue that they fucked up because of them in this particular case, they need locking up.

    I used to work for a social services magazine in the 80s and 90s. This "what we need is more resources" argument has been going around since then and probably for a couple of decades before that. I am not denying there has been a financial squeeze on social service departments but they seem to have plenty of money for generous pay-off to senior staff who screwed up.
    When I was in London in the early 90s, I got invited to a firework party in South London (I'll leave the exact location unclear). The party was hosted by a social worker, and there were a fair few teenagers around. She was taking drugs, and giving some to the teenagers.

    She was most affronted when I, a guest, refused to take any.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That was the most impressive element of the documentary....twitter thread.

    Peter Jackson Details How ‘Get Back’ Used Machine Learning to Restore the Beatles’ Sound and Footage
    https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1466882712862527489?s=20

    More interesting than any of that Beatles rubbish - I recently learnt (*) that Peter Jackson has a very large pre-WW2 airplane collection
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gmZ9X9Aplk
    https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2021/01/peter-jackson-and-the-airplane-thief

    Edit: skip to 44 mins in the first link to see a few of them flying...

    (*) Perhaps from on here?
    As a massive Biggles fan, can I just say WOW.
    IIRC they also make or made replicas to sell. Not just models but actual flying planes, to the original plans as I understand it. No 2/3 scale plastic Spitfires or anything like that. So if you want your own SE.5 to formate on Biggles ... but it seems covid spoilt things.

    https://thevintageaviator.co.nz/
    The Vanity Fair article has more details: Covid won't have helped, but it sounds as though the place was (ahem) badly run, and Jackson needs another hit film or two.

    Discovering Jackson manufactured and collected vintage planes was a real surprise - a bit like Rod Stewart and his model railway. I wonder what's next: Kate Bush is into mountaineering and wants to become an eight-thousander? Kim Kardashian teaches history at a down-at-heel school in Chicago? Britney Spears is an expert in semiconductor physics?

    Oh wait, the latter one is, of course, true. Here's a website to prove it - and we all know everything on t'Internet is true...
    http://britneyspears.ac/lasers.htm
    Tuns out Kate Bush was a fan of May (T, not B ):
    "I actually really like her and think she's wonderful. I think it's the best thing that's happened to us in a long time ... It is great to have a woman in charge of the country. She's very sensible and I think that's a good thing at this point in time."
    From memory ,she got a heck of a lot of stick over that, and had to 'clarify' her comments.

    Which was all a bit sad.
  • Labour has suspended Angela Rayner’s head of communications in an escalation of hostilities between her and Sir Keir Starmer.

    Jack McKenna, who manages the deputy leader’s relations with the media and writes her speeches, learnt of the action last night.

    He has been placed under investigation on suspicion of a personal data breach involving another Labour staff member. The party has said that the inquiry does not amount to a presumption of guilt.

    McKenna, a former aide to Jeremy Corbyn, denies the allegations. Allies of Rayner, 41, believe the suspension to be politically motivated and note that it came days after Starmer, the Labour leader, blindsided her by reshuffling the shadow cabinet while she made a speech.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/angela-rayner-aide-jack-mckenna-suspended-over-data-breach-claim-nd5wmgpml
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I believe the Tory majority will shrink considerably, as low as a Hung Parliament, the Lib Dems will take dozens of seats.

    You are relying on the Lib Dems to end the Tory majority? LOL.
    In the Tory strategy memo mentioned in one of the papers a couple of months ago, that was the number one fear at CCHQ.

    No Corbyn, makes it safe for those Tories who voted Tory in 2019 to switch over to the LDs because there's no worry about Corbyn becoming PM in 2024. That helps a lot in Con/Lab marginals.

    As Philip notes, the Tories are uncoalitionable.
    Yes, but the Lib Dems are f****** useless at everything except by elections.
    At general elections these things happen organically.
    Indeed, with added Tofu. Except when they don't. Like every election since 2010.
    2010 was a freak as they were up against my boy Dave, I remember selling the Lib Dems at 98 at that election. Bizarre to think their price with SPIN at one point over 100 seats.
    It was 2015 when Dave did a real hatchet job on his erstwhile coalition partners. I see no sign that the Lib Dems have recovered yet.
    The LDs need three things:

    First, they need an issue where they can differentiate themselves, where the two main parties are in agreement, and they can carve out a niche, as happened with Iraq.

    Second, they need Labour voters to forget the coalition, and tactically vote for them.

    Third, they need there to be general annoyance with the government, manifesting itself in improved local government election results (and which allows the LibDems to portray themselves as the local challengers).

    Of these, they don't have the first. There is maybe some evidence of the second, and while LibDem local results have been improving (they gained councillors in the last three rounds of local elections), it is off a very low base.
    I think those things would help the Lib Dems, but I think you've missed the really big one:

    Would voters in Guildford prefer a Labour-SNP-LD coalition to the Tories? If the Lib Dems rule out propping up the Tories, then it's largely out of their hands as to whether such voters will vote for them.
    Well, we'll see, but don't forget the Conservatives only got 45% of the vote in Guilford last time around - and then the LibDems would have been getting into coalition with Corbyn.

    Guilford is a seat that's susceptible to a little bit of tactical voting, even if the Conservatives maintain their vote share.
    Fascinating seat in many ways. What happens to Anne Milton's vote (7.4%)? What difference will boundary changes make?

    Of course, we also don't know the extent to which voters in such seats think that the Tories may lose the election. The Lib Dems could do quite well if it looks like it won't matter how Guildford votes.
    Guilford loses a couple of very Tory villages - https://waverleyweb.org/2021/06/14/constituency-boundary-changes-on-the-way-for-your-waverley-and-guildford/

    My gut (and it's only a gut) is that the Conservatives are going to suffer in the market towns of the South East, because they feel ignored relative to the Northern seats. These were also places which usually voted Remain, albeit by relatively small margins. And it's a lot easier for a disaffected Tory to stay home when there's no risk of putting Corbyn in Number Ten.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    edited December 2021
    Is it any wonder no one with any ability will dream of being a social worker?
    Absolutely despised. And no praise for the vast majority of successes.
    They seem to act as a conduit for our collective guilt.
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