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Why the Conservatives could increase their majority – politicalbetting.com
Why the Conservatives could increase their majority – politicalbetting.com
As has been noted before on this site, the Tories are “uncoalitionable”. [uncoalitionable] A swing against the party at the next election and loss of seats could leave the Conservative Party still with most seats in a Hung Parliament and yet unable to form a government due to a lack of potential allies.
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Oh, yes.
Edit: ok then, fourth, like the Lib Dems in Fort William and Ardnamurchan.
The circuit looks pants, though.
Nobody been tasered yet.
I uploaded this piece hours ago, so no insider trading.
What the hell would Labour do if you are right? They would be looking at another decade out of power from 2023/4. So mid-2030s before even a chance.
Public Health Scotland (PHS) are investigating a processing issue with UK Government Pillar 2 lab tests contributing to lower than expected cases. This means reported case numbers for Scotland on 4 December are likely lower than would have been expected.
I don’t know what happened in the 1:30. We were both on the fastest horses. They were both watching each other, front running for nearly all of it. Normally I like front runners, but facing that wind maybe in the conditions that was the wrong strategy, they shielded the others from the wind, pulled them around through the heavier than expected turf, draining their advantage while doing so?
My long shot lost by a length. I’m still happy with the two wins though, pocketed 10x my stake.
Peter Jackson Details How ‘Get Back’ Used Machine Learning to Restore the Beatles’ Sound and Footage
https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1466882712862527489?s=20
in both cases the party in governments has a lot of MPs who have just become MPs and if they are sensible will use every opportunity to get them selves well known and ideally well liked in the constancy.
If I recall correctly the Labour party as a whole had a swing against it of 3 or 4% but become of the 'new incumbency bounce this resulted in a much smaller loss of seats than one might predict.
the new boundaries, (if they are in force at the time) might limit this to some extent but not completely.
1. First-time incumbency bonus.
Although this will be attenuated somewhat by new boundaries, it will still be a factor in many seats.
2. Campaign money, having enough of it, and using it on social media.
Labour have serious money troubles not faced by the Tories, and the Tories were markedly more effective/ruthless/unscrupulous with their use of social media advertising and astroturf groups on social media at GE2019 - a factor which I think is only likely to grow in importance as it becomes more sophisticated.
3. Labour splits.
From the outside looking in it still looks like there are too many within Labour who hate each other more than they hate the Tories.
4. Brexit politics.
I get a sense that there will be many in the opposition generally who won't be able to help themself, but will talk about how terrible Brexit has been during the election campaign, and the spirit of "I told you so" will harry the voters. Starmer, as former shadow Brexit Secretary, is almost worst-placed to move the Opposition on from Brexit, and this will play badly during the election campaign. This is also an area where the SNP will ensure that the Brexit wound is not allowed to heal.
If Con actually increase their majority again at the 2023 general election (thus virtually guaranteeing another five year term in 2028) Labour really need to consider disbanding and letting a new opposition (some sort of new Labour/Lib-Dem alignment perhaps?) take their place.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gmZ9X9Aplk
https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2021/01/peter-jackson-and-the-airplane-thief
Edit: skip to 44 mins in the first link to see a few of them flying...
(*) Perhaps from on here?
No further action on Hamilton for the alleged double waved yellows - "on-board video clearly shows there was no yellow flag displayed, no yellow lights were displayed to that driver and the yellow warning light was not visible on the driver’s steering wheel"
This does rather beg the question as to why it even got to the stewards but there you are
"The Race Director reported to the Stewards that the double yellow flag warning on the FIA Marshalling System was activated at Light Panel Number 6 accidentally, for less than one second"
https://twitter.com/andrewbensonf1/status/1467174217833713665
They have a supremely underwhelming leader. We'll see what happens at the N Shropshire by-election, but I doubt they will do as well as they did at Chesham and Amersham, where HS2 provided the backdrop for the perfect storm for the NimbyDems.
I don't care how messy the conception is.
TBH it isn't that popular a song.
https://www.express.co.uk/sport/football/1194764/Liverpool-Divock-Origi-Banner-Genk-Champions-League
This it the LibDem target list: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
Now, exclude numbers 1 and 3, where they compete with the SNP and the Labour Party, and if you want them to win dozens, you need to move down to number 26 or 27. Those are big (10%) swings needed.
It gets worse. Quite a few of the seats the LDs did well in in 2019 were traditional Labour-Tory seats: Wimbledon, Cities of London & Westminster, Finchley & Golders Green. Who says they won't revert to type in 2024?
The LibDems also rely heavily on tactical voting. There are going to be some pretty big changes to the constituency boundaries next time around. That makes persuading people that the LibDem is the prime challenger to the Tories tough.
Finally, of course, all this assumes that the LibDems are going to be doing reasonably well. They're mired in the single digits today. Now, I am more optimistic than some, simply because I don't think the Greens have really got the hang of politics in the UK, but do you really want to bet that the LDs will reach 14 or 15% next time around?
No Corbyn, makes it safe for those Tories who voted Tory in 2019 to switch over to the LDs because there's no worry about Corbyn becoming PM in 2024. That helps a lot in Con/Lab marginals.
As Philip notes, the Tories are uncoalitionable.
There's only really handful of seats like Yvette Cooper's and Jon trickett's where labour only held due to a split opposition in 2019 that I can possibly see them gaining in addition to retaining Hartlepool.
A couple of dozen plus seats for the Lib Dems including those already in the bag on a 5% to 6% swing is no more outrageous than Philip's prediction, considerably less so I would suggest.
The Tories are pretty much running against an open field. There's really little in the way of opposition. Quite how they manage to fuck such an opportunity up baffles me.
In perhaps 25 years Labour and the LDs won't exist. Labour because they're a 19th Century party, and the LDs because they are crap.
https://thevintageaviator.co.nz/
Wimbledon becomes a little more Conservative, as it gains a Conservative ward from Kingston. (Which, by contrast, becomes a little more LibDem.) I think that's a possible LD gain, but let's see the Merton council results next year.
I don't know what's going to happen to Carshalton & Wallington, but it's a leave seat moving away from the LDs, and I doubt Tom Brake will be the candidate next time. Con hold.
Cheltenham, Winchester - good chances of LD gains.
Cheadle: my gut is the LDs won't do particularly well in the NW, so Con hold.
Cambridgeshire South. Big boundary changes thanks to the new St Neots constituency. Con hold.
Esher & Walton. Loses Cobham & Downside ward, which is split LD/Con. I suspect the LDs will benefit from tactical voting here. LD gain.
Lewes and Eastbourne, Con holds. Guilford probable LD gain.
And that's about it. I think that's four or five gains.
Hard to disagree about the Lib Dems though.
And the other obvious thing will be the very popular pre-election cut to the basic rate of income tax. I know there are others who are also seething at the increase in tax on employment income which will be used to cut tax on other income (a tax rise for workers to fund tax cuts for their landlords), but it's going to happen and it will be popular.
I'd say their possible maximum no. of gains is about 20. Best case scenario for the Lib Dems would be taking seats like Harrogate and Knaresborough and Woking at the next GE to end up on around 30 seats which would deprive the Tories of power even if Starmer only gains 30-40 seats like Kinnock/Corbyn.
It was Biggles' friend at the other squadron who flew an SE5
Makes a change that a fan of the PM has not merely whinged that there are no pro-government headers. One of the Party of enterprise has got off theIr arse.
On topic. Seems like a lot of stuff needs to come together at once for this to come off.
Difficult to see exactly which groups of new voters the Tories can attract. Apart from the Brexit ones not a great many. Would want more than 5's. Possibly double that. But not impossible.
I must check Biggles Flies Undone to see if he ever had a flip in a SE.5A ...
Edit: But the Sopwith Pup replica would have the Biggles imprimatur. So all is well.
Not impossible at all. SKS has taken Lab from toxic to unremarkable, if that. Which is no small and a necessary achievement but still.
Would anyone march to the polls at the next GE with a fire in their heart? Um, no.
The Cons would have (had) to mess up on a gigantic and very noticeable scale. They haven't done this, albeit the global Covid post mortem has yet to be undertaken (!).
The vote will to a large extent rely on people like me. Ex Cons. I'm not at Lab yet by s long chalk, which leaves a protest vote. And people like me are not super keen on protest votes.
Discovering Jackson manufactured and collected vintage planes was a real surprise - a bit like Rod Stewart and his model railway. I wonder what's next: Kate Bush is into mountaineering and wants to become an eight-thousander? Kim Kardashian teaches history at a down-at-heel school in Chicago? Britney Spears is an expert in semiconductor physics?
Oh wait, the latter one is, of course, true. Here's a website to prove it - and we all know everything on t'Internet is true...
http://britneyspears.ac/lasers.htm
First, they need an issue where they can differentiate themselves, where the two main parties are in agreement, and they can carve out a niche, as happened with Iraq.
Second, they need Labour voters to forget the coalition, and tactically vote for them.
Third, they need there to be general annoyance with the government, manifesting itself in improved local government election results (and which allows the LibDems to portray themselves as the local challengers).
Of these, they don't have the first. There is maybe some evidence of the second, and while LibDem local results have been improving (they gained councillors in the last three rounds of local elections), it is off a very low base.
Of course this is a tough scene for the SNP, who may have to actually hold (and lose) Ref2 in that case rather then blame Boris for not allowing the Ref2 that the SNP don't want.
https://www.womenshistory.org/education-resources/biographies/hedy-lamarr
Maria Caulfield got 47.9% of the vote. Labour has been squeezed to almost deposit losing territory already. Unless the Con share is actually down next time around, I think they'll hold.
(For the record, I think the former LibDem MP, Norman Baker, was an absolute star.)
Would voters in Guildford prefer a Labour-SNP-LD coalition to the Tories? If the Lib Dems rule out propping up the Tories, then it's largely out of their hands as to whether such voters will vote for them.
"I actually really like her and think she's wonderful. I think it's the best thing that's happened to us in a long time ... It is great to have a woman in charge of the country. She's very sensible and I think that's a good thing at this point in time."
Guilford is a seat that's susceptible to a little bit of tactical voting, even if the Conservatives maintain their vote share.
Herbert Laming said the reduction in funding for social care in the last 10 years meant children like Arthur, whose abuse and death has shocked the nation, were being missed.
Possibly the worst take on this horrible story. The TV news said that the boy's uncle reported concerns on a number of occasions.
Perhaps social workers are under pressure because of financial constraints. But my God, if they try to argue that they fucked up because of them in this particular case, they need locking up.
Of course, we also don't know the extent to which voters in such seats think that the Tories may lose the election. The Lib Dems could do quite well if it looks like it won't matter how Guildford votes.
She was most affronted when I, a guest, refused to take any.
Which was all a bit sad.
Jack McKenna, who manages the deputy leader’s relations with the media and writes her speeches, learnt of the action last night.
He has been placed under investigation on suspicion of a personal data breach involving another Labour staff member. The party has said that the inquiry does not amount to a presumption of guilt.
McKenna, a former aide to Jeremy Corbyn, denies the allegations. Allies of Rayner, 41, believe the suspension to be politically motivated and note that it came days after Starmer, the Labour leader, blindsided her by reshuffling the shadow cabinet while she made a speech.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/angela-rayner-aide-jack-mckenna-suspended-over-data-breach-claim-nd5wmgpml
My gut (and it's only a gut) is that the Conservatives are going to suffer in the market towns of the South East, because they feel ignored relative to the Northern seats. These were also places which usually voted Remain, albeit by relatively small margins. And it's a lot easier for a disaffected Tory to stay home when there's no risk of putting Corbyn in Number Ten.
Absolutely despised. And no praise for the vast majority of successes.
They seem to act as a conduit for our collective guilt.