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France 2022: An update – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageFrance 2022: An update – politicalbetting.com

Last week the worst kept secret in French politics finally ended, as Eric Zemmour declared he was running for President. The far-right polemicist has raised a crescendo of media coverage, but quietly his polling might already have peaked.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    1st
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572
    2nd...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    The fact that nobody to the left of Macron is even mentioned in the header is very telling.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,301
    Zemmourth.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552

    The fact that nobody to the left of Macron is even mentioned in the header is very telling.

    That he's secretly communist?
  • The fact that nobody to the left of Macron is even mentioned in the header is very telling.

    I worry for France that Zemmour has shifted the Overton Window to the point that Le Pen is looking relatively moderate.

    France joins a list of European nations whose politics is looking increasingly ugly. Thank goodness we don't share sovereignty with them anymore.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,831

    The fact that nobody to the left of Macron is even mentioned in the header is very telling.

    Yes, Macron has really eaten the traditional French left and Melanchon's brand of hard-leftness has faded a lot compared to 2017 such that he isn't really close to the runoff so far.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8IGBDK1BH8

    Zemmour's campaign video. 2.7 million views. But try and search for it on Youtube; and it doesn't turn up in any search results - you just get edited versions of it in news reports, with far fewer views. It is also 'age restricted', for some reason.

    Watching the video: it is perhaps a bit cheesy and makes appeals to popular nostalgia; but there is no good reason why it should be censored in this way. His supporters look very white, but he is of Algerian descent, so the argument that it is racist doesn't stick.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021

    The fact that nobody to the left of Macron is even mentioned in the header is very telling.

    I worry for France that Zemmour has shifted the Overton Window to the point that Le Pen is looking relatively moderate.

    France joins a list of European nations whose politics is looking increasingly ugly. Thank goodness we don't share sovereignty with them anymore.
    The interview I saw him do with Freddie Sayers, in French (so not a second language issue), made Tommy Robinson sound like a moderate when it comes to the immigration.

    Its wasn't even cloaked in a tough on immigration message, it was out and out racist. Basically Muslims need re-education into the French way of thinking and they must not practice their religion outside their own homes. Those that don't will be sent back to where they come from.

    If you had replaced talk of Muslims with Jews, you probably would have thought it was an interview with Hitler.
  • TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.
  • TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    Article is bollx frankly. Sounds like Sunak has commissioned a few studies just so he can get a press release saying he is looking at dropping income tax or IHT.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited December 2021
    It still looks like Le Pen v Macron in the runoff, a bit closer than 2017 but still a Macron re election.

    If the moderate Pecresse is Les Republicains candidate rather than the hard right Ciotti she may eat into Macron's vote in round 1. It would not therefor be completely impossible you end up with a Zemmour v Le Pen runoff if Macron loses votes to his left to Melenchon and Hidalgo and moderate conservatives vote for Pecresse in round 1 even if they would vote for Macron over Le Pen or Zemmour in the runoff
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    Not a hope. They are obviously pampering southern houseowners and their middle aged soon to retire children. Look at the increase to IHT threshold being mooted.
  • Italy reports 17,030 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since April
  • Carnyx said:

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    Not a hope. They are obviously pampering southern houseowners and their middle aged soon to retire children. Look at the increase to IHT threshold being mooted.
    Its disgusting.

    If Sunak actually goes ahead with any of that then the Conservatives are no longer the party of hard work and aspiration being rewarded.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380
    rcs1000 said:

    The fact that nobody to the left of Macron is even mentioned in the header is very telling.

    That he's secretly communist?
    For France, that is very weird. Real, honest-to-god self-described Communists were players there not so very long ago.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660
    I see Zemmour as a safe lay and I hope I have that right for more than betting reasons.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,656
    What are the odds of a Zemmour vs. Le Pen run off?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    RobD said:

    What are the odds of a Zemmour vs. Le Pen run off?

    Zero.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,831
    kinabalu said:

    I see Zemmour as a safe lay and I hope I have that right for more than betting reasons.

    I really do think Zemmour has an immensely tough route to victory. The run-off is doable, but there is no evidence so far he could cobble together anything near 50%+1 in a the final round. Obviously things can change, but his unfavourables are really high and his run-off polling awful. Even a 10% return in 5 months I think is pretty decent.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359
    RobD said:

    What are the odds of a Zemmour vs. Le Pen run off?

    10/1 Zemmour
    1/10 Le Pen
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    maaarsh said:

    RobD said:

    What are the odds of a Zemmour vs. Le Pen run off?

    10/1 Zemmour
    1/10 Le Pen
    So that averages out at evens then?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,656
    What a load of nonsense. Turnout is always lower at by-elections.
  • darkage said:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8IGBDK1BH8

    Zemmour's campaign video. 2.7 million views. But try and search for it on Youtube; and it doesn't turn up in any search results - you just get edited versions of it in news reports, with far fewer views. It is also 'age restricted', for some reason.

    Watching the video: it is perhaps a bit cheesy and makes appeals to popular nostalgia; but there is no good reason why it should be censored in this way. His supporters look very white, but he is of Algerian descent, so the argument that it is racist doesn't stick.

    He's an Algerian Jew. Can quite easily be racist against other religious/ethnic groups.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    RobD said:

    What a load of nonsense. Turnout is always lower at by-elections.
    I think we need a new acronym - KDS for Keir Derangement Syndrome.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    Gallowgate is coming at you live from Essex this evening
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,831
    RobD said:

    What a load of nonsense. Turnout is always lower at by-elections.
    There are two symmetrical takes floating around today, both looking at the raw votes of Lab/Con and concluding that they both did poorly. Weirdly neither take ever includes the other side's raw vote total for context...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088

    Carnyx said:

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    Not a hope. They are obviously pampering southern houseowners and their middle aged soon to retire children. Look at the increase to IHT threshold being mooted.
    Its disgusting.

    If Sunak actually goes ahead with any of that then the Conservatives are no longer the party of hard work and aspiration being rewarded.
    Lol! The Tories have never been the party of hard work and aspiration; they have always been the party for protecting established wealth.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858

    Gallowgate is coming at you live from Essex this evening

    Commiserations.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    Just had an evening watching No Time to Die with friends over a few drinks.

    Have I missed the regular evening panic over covid numbers?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited December 2021
    Carnyx said:

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    Not a hope. They are obviously pampering southern houseowners and their middle aged soon to retire children. Look at the increase to IHT threshold being mooted.
    IHT starts at £325,000 there are even plenty of homes in the North and Midlands and Scotland and Wales now which would come over that let alone in London and the South
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,018
    BBC 4 now

    Proclaimers - This is the Story
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    Carnyx said:

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    Not a hope. They are obviously pampering southern houseowners and their middle aged soon to retire children. Look at the increase to IHT threshold being mooted.
    Its disgusting.

    If Sunak actually goes ahead with any of that then the Conservatives are no longer the party of hard work and aspiration being rewarded.
    Lol! The Tories have never been the party of hard work and aspiration; they have always been the party for protecting established wealth.
    The Tories have always been the party of preserving estates first, the Liberals have been the party of preserving income first, Labour have been the party of expanding state power and increasing taxes on both
  • Carnyx said:

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    Not a hope. They are obviously pampering southern houseowners and their middle aged soon to retire children. Look at the increase to IHT threshold being mooted.
    Its disgusting.

    If Sunak actually goes ahead with any of that then the Conservatives are no longer the party of hard work and aspiration being rewarded.
    Lol! The Tories have never been the party of hard work and aspiration; they have always been the party for protecting established wealth.
    Ahem:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2007/oct/09/economy.tax
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    Not a hope. They are obviously pampering southern houseowners and their middle aged soon to retire children. Look at the increase to IHT threshold being mooted.
    Its disgusting.

    If Sunak actually goes ahead with any of that then the Conservatives are no longer the party of hard work and aspiration being rewarded.
    Lol! The Tories have never been the party of hard work and aspiration; they have always been the party for protecting established wealth.
    The Tories have always been the party of preserving estates first, the Liberals have been the party of preserving income first, Labour have been the party of expanding state power and increasing taxes on both
    That sounds like an unbiased and objective summary. Cheers mate.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    Not a hope. They are obviously pampering southern houseowners and their middle aged soon to retire children. Look at the increase to IHT threshold being mooted.
    IHT starts at £325,000 there are even plenty of homes in the North and Midlands and Scotland and Wales now which would come over that let alone in London and the South
    Yebbut... A couple can leave a house worth up to £1,000,000 to their descendants and not pay IHT.
  • HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    Not a hope. They are obviously pampering southern houseowners and their middle aged soon to retire children. Look at the increase to IHT threshold being mooted.
    Its disgusting.

    If Sunak actually goes ahead with any of that then the Conservatives are no longer the party of hard work and aspiration being rewarded.
    Lol! The Tories have never been the party of hard work and aspiration; they have always been the party for protecting established wealth.
    The Tories have always been the party of preserving estates first, the Liberals have been the party of preserving income first, Labour have been the party of expanding state power and increasing taxes on both
    That sounds like an unbiased and objective summary. Cheers mate.
    Curious that you didn't make the same observation about @Benpointer's post.

    Double standards, much?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380
    edited December 2021

    Just had an evening watching No Time to Die with friends over a few drinks.

    Have I missed the regular evening panic over covid numbers?

    Someone ate all the Jaffa cakes. So the panic finished early.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    Not a hope. They are obviously pampering southern houseowners and their middle aged soon to retire children. Look at the increase to IHT threshold being mooted.
    Its disgusting.

    If Sunak actually goes ahead with any of that then the Conservatives are no longer the party of hard work and aspiration being rewarded.
    Lol! The Tories have never been the party of hard work and aspiration; they have always been the party for protecting established wealth.
    The Tories have always been the party of preserving estates first, the Liberals have been the party of preserving income first, Labour have been the party of expanding state power and increasing taxes on both
    That sounds like an unbiased and objective summary. Cheers mate.
    Curious that you didn't make the same observation about @Benpointer's post.

    Double standards, much?
    Why, @HYUFD agrees with @Benpointer as well?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552

    The fact that nobody to the left of Macron is even mentioned in the header is very telling.

    I worry for France that Zemmour has shifted the Overton Window to the point that Le Pen is looking relatively moderate.

    France joins a list of European nations whose politics is looking increasingly ugly. Thank goodness we don't share sovereignty with them anymore.
    I'm not sure that Le Pen is particularly extreme. She's just Jeremy Corbin economics, combined with Theresa May on immigration.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    Not a hope. They are obviously pampering southern houseowners and their middle aged soon to retire children. Look at the increase to IHT threshold being mooted.
    IHT starts at £325,000 there are even plenty of homes in the North and Midlands and Scotland and Wales now which would come over that let alone in London and the South
    Yebbut... A couple can leave a house worth up to £1,000,000 to their descendants and not pay IHT.
    Yes but not everyone is married, some may have been married now single or never married and still want to leave their estate to their family
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    Not a hope. They are obviously pampering southern houseowners and their middle aged soon to retire children. Look at the increase to IHT threshold being mooted.
    Its disgusting.

    If Sunak actually goes ahead with any of that then the Conservatives are no longer the party of hard work and aspiration being rewarded.
    Lol! The Tories have never been the party of hard work and aspiration; they have always been the party for protecting established wealth.
    The Tories have always been the party of preserving estates first, the Liberals have been the party of preserving income first, Labour have been the party of expanding state power and increasing taxes on both
    That sounds like an unbiased and objective summary. Cheers mate.
    Curious that you didn't make the same observation about @Benpointer's post.

    Double standards, much?
    How dare you criticise my deep and well-researched analysis!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    rcs1000 said:

    The fact that nobody to the left of Macron is even mentioned in the header is very telling.

    I worry for France that Zemmour has shifted the Overton Window to the point that Le Pen is looking relatively moderate.

    France joins a list of European nations whose politics is looking increasingly ugly. Thank goodness we don't share sovereignty with them anymore.
    I'm not sure that Le Pen is particularly extreme. She's just Jeremy Corbin economics, combined with Theresa May on immigration.
    She is protectionist not outright socialist, her economic polices are more a combination of Trump and Ed MIliband.

    Her party is certainly still more hardline on immigration than the Tories are, even if they are no longer quite at BNP levels
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,144

    Just had an evening watching No Time to Die with friends over a few drinks.

    Have I missed the regular evening panic over covid numbers?

    Someone ate all the Jaffa cakes. So the panic finished early.
    75 new omicron found in the UK.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330
    I found the interview between Zemmour and Freddie Sayers from a few days ago, also worth watching. I found I agree with Sayers comments at the end: it is unsettling.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0M9P0kLxElY
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    darkage said:

    I found the interview between Zemmour and Freddie Sayers from a few days ago, also worth watching. I found I agree with Sayers comments at the end: it is unsettling.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0M9P0kLxElY

    Freddie Sayers' videos on UnHerd are generally excellent and worth watching.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    Not a hope. They are obviously pampering southern houseowners and their middle aged soon to retire children. Look at the increase to IHT threshold being mooted.
    IHT starts at £325,000 there are even plenty of homes in the North and Midlands and Scotland and Wales now which would come over that let alone in London and the South
    Yebbut... A couple can leave a house worth up to £1,000,000 to their descendants and not pay IHT.
    Yes but not everyone is married, some may have been married now single or never married and still want to leave their estate to their family
    Less than 5% of estates pay IHT.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    You have to hand it to Rishi: claiming to be a tax-cutting Chancellor just weeks after raising the tax burden to its highest level for 70 years takes some chutzpah. Bravo!

    Indeed.
    Am waiting for the Freedom is Slavery slogan. Won't be long.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330

    You have to hand it to Rishi: claiming to be a tax-cutting Chancellor just weeks after raising the tax burden to its highest level for 70 years takes some chutzpah. Bravo!

    What is most difficult to understand is that the tax burden largely falls on people who have highly paid employment, as they are most liable to pay large amounts of National Insurance.

    Those who have independent wealth, or are self employed, or are on low incomes pay proportionately less tax.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    Good piece @Quincel.
    Even with "Zemmour or less."
  • German hospitals struggling amid fourth COVID-19 wave
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIeYDjioJm4
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    darkage said:

    You have to hand it to Rishi: claiming to be a tax-cutting Chancellor just weeks after raising the tax burden to its highest level for 70 years takes some chutzpah. Bravo!

    What is most difficult to understand is that the tax burden largely falls on people who have highly paid employment, as they are most liable to pay large amounts of National Insurance.

    Those who have independent wealth, or are self employed, or are on low incomes pay proportionately less tax.
    Also those over 67 pay no NI, nor do those who retired early on fat pensions.
  • TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    It is obvious that this would be the way it would happen, despite the very good reasons why it shouldn't. The politicians look to the opinion polls, the focus groups and precedent. Raising National Insurance and cutting Income Tax is a winning combination. Has been for decades.

    I have no idea how to fix this.
  • German hospitals struggling amid fourth COVID-19 wave
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIeYDjioJm4

    In the video they show the drugs somebody in ICU gets every day for COVID....if you are worried about animal testing of a vaccine, they must have killed 1000s of monkeys to come up with all the drugs they give you if you get sick.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    edited December 2021
    I expect it's already been covered on here but this is a bit worrying:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/03/more-than-half-omicron-cases-in-england-are-in-the-double-jabbed

    Low numbers, so caution required, but 12 of the first 22 omicron cases (54%) are with the double jabbed. Circa 68% of the UK population is double-jabbed.

    My inference from that is vaccination only gives a marginal protection against catching omicron. Of course it may give a much better protection agains severe disease or death.
  • TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    It is obvious that this would be the way it would happen, despite the very good reasons why it shouldn't. The politicians look to the opinion polls, the focus groups and precedent. Raising National Insurance and cutting Income Tax is a winning combination. Has been for decades.

    I have no idea how to fix this.
    If it doesn't get fixed eventually people are going to go for someone like Corbyn.

    Break the system and start again.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021

    I expect it's already been covered on here but this is a bit worrying:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/03/more-than-half-omicron-cases-in-england-are-in-the-double-jabbed

    Low numbers, so caution required, but 12 of the first 22 omicron cases (54%) are with the double jabbed. Circa 68% of the UK population is double-jabbed.

    My inference from that is vaccination only gives a marginal protection against catching omicron. Of course it may give a much better protection agains severe disease or death.

    22 cases is far too small a sample to infer anything.
  • dixiedean said:

    You have to hand it to Rishi: claiming to be a tax-cutting Chancellor just weeks after raising the tax burden to its highest level for 70 years takes some chutzpah. Bravo!

    Indeed.
    Am waiting for the Freedom is Slavery slogan. Won't be long.
    I am more convinced Truss will win leadership tonight than I was this morning.

    This kind of shit via Times is just too obvious surely?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    Not a hope. They are obviously pampering southern houseowners and their middle aged soon to retire children. Look at the increase to IHT threshold being mooted.
    IHT starts at £325,000 there are even plenty of homes in the North and Midlands and Scotland and Wales now which would come over that let alone in London and the South
    Yebbut... A couple can leave a house worth up to £1,000,000 to their descendants and not pay IHT.
    Yes but not everyone is married, some may have been married now single or never married and still want to leave their estate to their family
    Less than 5% of estates pay IHT.
    More and more estates have been brought into the IHT bracket as house prices rise and that will continue to be the case going forward
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380

    I expect it's already been covered on here but this is a bit worrying:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/03/more-than-half-omicron-cases-in-england-are-in-the-double-jabbed

    Low numbers, so caution required, but 12 of the first 22 omicron cases (54%) are with the double jabbed. Circa 68% of the UK population is double-jabbed.

    My inference from that is vaccination only gives a marginal protection against catching omicron. Of course it may give a much better protection agains severe disease or death.

    You are late for the panic - and then you try and restart the party after the DJ has packed up?

    No Jaffa Cakes for you.

    Oh, and your inferences are wrong.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    It is obvious that this would be the way it would happen, despite the very good reasons why it shouldn't. The politicians look to the opinion polls, the focus groups and precedent. Raising National Insurance and cutting Income Tax is a winning combination. Has been for decades.

    I have no idea how to fix this.
    National insurance should be regarded as a joke tax; and everyone should structure their financial affairs in such a way that they pay the least amount possible whilst complying with the law.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,094
    Chance of Zemmour?

    Rat-a-tat-a-tat.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    darkage said:

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    It is obvious that this would be the way it would happen, despite the very good reasons why it shouldn't. The politicians look to the opinion polls, the focus groups and precedent. Raising National Insurance and cutting Income Tax is a winning combination. Has been for decades.

    I have no idea how to fix this.
    National insurance should be regarded as a joke tax; and everyone should structure their financial affairs in such a way that they pay the least amount possible whilst complying with the law.
    Your regular worker doesn't, indeed cannot structure their financial affairs.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088

    I expect it's already been covered on here but this is a bit worrying:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/03/more-than-half-omicron-cases-in-england-are-in-the-double-jabbed

    Low numbers, so caution required, but 12 of the first 22 omicron cases (54%) are with the double jabbed. Circa 68% of the UK population is double-jabbed.

    My inference from that is vaccination only gives a marginal protection against catching omicron. Of course it may give a much better protection agains severe disease or death.

    You are late for the panic - and then you try and restart the party after the DJ has packed up?

    No Jaffa Cakes for you.

    Oh, and your inferences are wrong.
    Give me a break - I've been watching the Bond film (I know, late to that too).

    How is my inference wrong? (Genuine question)
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,163

    Gallowgate is coming at you live from Essex this evening

    Partying with OKC or isam? Or both? A big night in the 'Ford could be some approximation of half way...

    (with apologies to I'm sure many other Essex posters I've missed out)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    Not a hope. They are obviously pampering southern houseowners and their middle aged soon to retire children. Look at the increase to IHT threshold being mooted.
    IHT starts at £325,000 there are even plenty of homes in the North and Midlands and Scotland and Wales now which would come over that let alone in London and the South
    Yebbut... A couple can leave a house worth up to £1,000,000 to their descendants and not pay IHT.
    Yes but not everyone is married, some may have been married now single or never married and still want to leave their estate to their family
    Less than 5% of estates pay IHT.
    More and more estates have been brought into the IHT bracket as house prices rise and that will continue to be the case going forward
    So? People who have made lots of money not through their own hard work but by virtue of house price rises will pay some of it in taxes when they die. Seems very fair to me (as one of those people).
  • darkage said:

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    It is obvious that this would be the way it would happen, despite the very good reasons why it shouldn't. The politicians look to the opinion polls, the focus groups and precedent. Raising National Insurance and cutting Income Tax is a winning combination. Has been for decades.

    I have no idea how to fix this.
    National insurance should be regarded as a joke tax; and everyone should structure their financial affairs in such a way that they pay the least amount possible whilst complying with the law.
    Good luck with that if like the vast majority of individuals you are on PAYE.
    Which might help explain why shifting taxation from National Insurance to Income Tax gets such an easy ride in the media from journalists structuring their financial affairs with the use of service companies.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    As a kid who got into football in the early 70's, the idea of Derby County being liquidated is just incomprehensible.
    Has shaken me a little tbh.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    edited December 2021

    I expect it's already been covered on here but this is a bit worrying:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/03/more-than-half-omicron-cases-in-england-are-in-the-double-jabbed

    Low numbers, so caution required, but 12 of the first 22 omicron cases (54%) are with the double jabbed. Circa 68% of the UK population is double-jabbed.

    My inference from that is vaccination only gives a marginal protection against catching omicron. Of course it may give a much better protection agains severe disease or death.

    22 cases is far too small a sample to infer anything.
    Fair point. But someone's gotta cover for @Leon on his night off.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021

    darkage said:

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    It is obvious that this would be the way it would happen, despite the very good reasons why it shouldn't. The politicians look to the opinion polls, the focus groups and precedent. Raising National Insurance and cutting Income Tax is a winning combination. Has been for decades.

    I have no idea how to fix this.
    National insurance should be regarded as a joke tax; and everyone should structure their financial affairs in such a way that they pay the least amount possible whilst complying with the law.
    Good luck with that if like the vast majority of individuals you are on PAYE.
    Which might help explain why shifting taxation from National Insurance to Income Tax gets such an easy ride in the media from journalists structuring their financial affairs with the use of service companies.
    Remember the outrage when Hammond tried to increase NI on those being paid through this method....won't somebody think of the poor Deliveroo rider the media cried.....when the reality was they weren't going to be hit that hard, but those earning a lot via this method would pay another £600-700 in NI.

    I hadn't seem them that outraged at a tax rise since Gordon Brown effectively targeted them with his sneaky increases around the £100k+ earner bracket. Polly was very upset, despite claiming she never earned that much.
  • TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    It is obvious that this would be the way it would happen, despite the very good reasons why it shouldn't. The politicians look to the opinion polls, the focus groups and precedent. Raising National Insurance and cutting Income Tax is a winning combination. Has been for decades.

    I have no idea how to fix this.
    If it doesn't get fixed eventually people are going to go for someone like Corbyn.

    Break the system and start again.
    That sounds like a great outcome, provided we can find someone who is like Corbyn, except for the antisemitism, the stale dogmatism, the lack of interest in persuasion and the absence of leadership abilities. And probably a bunch of other negative traits.

    At what stage do you conclude that there's more wrong than right, and that things are getting worse rather than better, so you might as well shake things up rather than hope that the country changes direction spontaneously?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380

    I expect it's already been covered on here but this is a bit worrying:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/03/more-than-half-omicron-cases-in-england-are-in-the-double-jabbed

    Low numbers, so caution required, but 12 of the first 22 omicron cases (54%) are with the double jabbed. Circa 68% of the UK population is double-jabbed.

    My inference from that is vaccination only gives a marginal protection against catching omicron. Of course it may give a much better protection agains severe disease or death.

    You are late for the panic - and then you try and restart the party after the DJ has packed up?

    No Jaffa Cakes for you.

    Oh, and your inferences are wrong.
    Give me a break - I've been watching the Bond film (I know, late to that too).

    How is my inference wrong? (Genuine question)
    Inferring anything from a sample of 22 people is silly for a start.

    The fact they are double jabbed tell us that they are 16+, 85% of the 16+ population have had 2 jabs

    etc etc.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    Latest North Shropshire odds:

    Con 1.5 / 1.52
    LD 2.84 / 3

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.190523448
  • Comparing General election numbers of votes with by-election votes is indeed pathetic. And dishonest.

    Of course if you do it by % of the vote you get a very different - and perhaps more accurate - picture

    2021 - 30.9%
    2019 - 23.5%
    2017 - 29.3%
    2015 - 19%
    2010 - 19.3%
    2005 - 27.5%
    2001 - 37.5%
    1997 - 35.1%
    1992 - 21.6%

    Again the major caveat is that this was a by-election rather than a GE but even so it is still the best performance by a Labour candidate there since the Blair era.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Latest North Shropshire odds:

    Con 1.5 / 1.52
    LD 2.84 / 3

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.190523448

    Lib Dems are value.

    Governments don't win by-elections.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    It is obvious that this would be the way it would happen, despite the very good reasons why it shouldn't. The politicians look to the opinion polls, the focus groups and precedent. Raising National Insurance and cutting Income Tax is a winning combination. Has been for decades.

    I have no idea how to fix this.
    If it doesn't get fixed eventually people are going to go for someone like Corbyn.

    Break the system and start again.
    That sounds like a great outcome, provided we can find someone who is like Corbyn, except for the antisemitism, the stale dogmatism, the lack of interest in persuasion and the absence of leadership abilities. And probably a bunch of other negative traits.

    At what stage do you conclude that there's more wrong than right, and that things are getting worse rather than better, so you might as well shake things up rather than hope that the country changes direction spontaneously?
    I have always enjoyed the interesting belief that if the "system gets broken" it will be replaced by some nice left anarchists (maybe).

    Meanwhile, the things went to shit in El Salvador, people voted for ARENA.


  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088

    I expect it's already been covered on here but this is a bit worrying:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/03/more-than-half-omicron-cases-in-england-are-in-the-double-jabbed

    Low numbers, so caution required, but 12 of the first 22 omicron cases (54%) are with the double jabbed. Circa 68% of the UK population is double-jabbed.

    My inference from that is vaccination only gives a marginal protection against catching omicron. Of course it may give a much better protection agains severe disease or death.

    You are late for the panic - and then you try and restart the party after the DJ has packed up?

    No Jaffa Cakes for you.

    Oh, and your inferences are wrong.
    Give me a break - I've been watching the Bond film (I know, late to that too).

    How is my inference wrong? (Genuine question)
    Inferring anything from a sample of 22 people is silly for a start.

    The fact they are double jabbed tell us that they are 16+, 85% of the 16+ population have had 2 jabs

    etc etc.

    I take your point about a sample of 22, which I acknowledged in my first post anyway.
  • darkage said:

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    It is obvious that this would be the way it would happen, despite the very good reasons why it shouldn't. The politicians look to the opinion polls, the focus groups and precedent. Raising National Insurance and cutting Income Tax is a winning combination. Has been for decades.

    I have no idea how to fix this.
    National insurance should be regarded as a joke tax; and everyone should structure their financial affairs in such a way that they pay the least amount possible whilst complying with the law.
    Good luck with that if like the vast majority of individuals you are on PAYE.
    Which might help explain why shifting taxation from National Insurance to Income Tax gets such an easy ride in the media from journalists structuring their financial affairs with the use of service companies.
    Remember the outrage when Hammond tried to increase NI on those being paid through this method....won't somebody think of the poor Deliveroo rider the media cried.....when the reality was they weren't going to be hit that hard, but those earning a lot via this method would pay another £600-700 in NI.

    I hadn't seem them that outraged at a tax rise since Gordon Brown effectively targeted them with his sneaky increases around the £100k+ earner bracket. Polly was very upset, despite claiming she never earned that much.
    For clarity he didn't and you are wrong. He tried to increase NI on the Self Employed, not on those operating as service companies. That is being covered by IR35 although that is a complete mess now as Companies are simply ignoring the HMRC guidance and putting everyone inside under blanket policies rather than looking at each person individually.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    edited December 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    Latest North Shropshire odds:

    Con 1.5 / 1.52
    LD 2.84 / 3

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.190523448

    Lib Dems are value.

    Governments don't win by-elections.
    Not a complimentary comment as far as Labour's campaign in Bexley is concerned.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 709
    Am on the last train from Queen Street to Waverley.

    The people of Scotland elegantly drop their makes to sup at cans of liquid gold.

    My heart rate returns to 50 having sprinted from Central (slight mixup).

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    It is obvious that this would be the way it would happen, despite the very good reasons why it shouldn't. The politicians look to the opinion polls, the focus groups and precedent. Raising National Insurance and cutting Income Tax is a winning combination. Has been for decades.

    I have no idea how to fix this.
    If it doesn't get fixed eventually people are going to go for someone like Corbyn.

    Break the system and start again.
    That sounds like a great outcome, provided we can find someone who is like Corbyn, except for the antisemitism, the stale dogmatism, the lack of interest in persuasion and the absence of leadership abilities. And probably a bunch of other negative traits.

    At what stage do you conclude that there's more wrong than right, and that things are getting worse rather than better, so you might as well shake things up rather than hope that the country changes direction spontaneously?
    Corbyn was a 70's Socialist. Not at all suitable for the 2020's. In addition to the drawbacks you list.
    There will come a time when a radical implementing real change does emerge again.
    But it will be a radicalism of the future, not of the past, or of the present.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    darkage said:

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    It is obvious that this would be the way it would happen, despite the very good reasons why it shouldn't. The politicians look to the opinion polls, the focus groups and precedent. Raising National Insurance and cutting Income Tax is a winning combination. Has been for decades.

    I have no idea how to fix this.
    National insurance should be regarded as a joke tax; and everyone should structure their financial affairs in such a way that they pay the least amount possible whilst complying with the law.
    "should"
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 709

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    It is obvious that this would be the way it would happen, despite the very good reasons why it shouldn't. The politicians look to the opinion polls, the focus groups and precedent. Raising National Insurance and cutting Income Tax is a winning combination. Has been for decades.

    I have no idea how to fix this.
    Don't forget the devolution aspect. Sturgeon can't fiddle with it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    Not a hope. They are obviously pampering southern houseowners and their middle aged soon to retire children. Look at the increase to IHT threshold being mooted.
    IHT starts at £325,000 there are even plenty of homes in the North and Midlands and Scotland and Wales now which would come over that let alone in London and the South
    Yebbut... A couple can leave a house worth up to £1,000,000 to their descendants and not pay IHT.
    Yes but not everyone is married, some may have been married now single or never married and still want to leave their estate to their family
    Less than 5% of estates pay IHT.
    More and more estates have been brought into the IHT bracket as house prices rise and that will continue to be the case going forward
    So? People who have made lots of money not through their own hard work but by virtue of house price rises will pay some of it in taxes when they die. Seems very fair to me (as one of those people).
    To you maybe, not the public as a whole.

    IHT is one of the least popular taxes, only 15% want it increased, 41% want it decreased, 31% kept the same

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/03/10/budget-2020-what-tax-changes-would-be-popular
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 709
    My companion on this train is into Chess. Speaking in coordinates.

    Help me God.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    dixiedean said:

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    It is obvious that this would be the way it would happen, despite the very good reasons why it shouldn't. The politicians look to the opinion polls, the focus groups and precedent. Raising National Insurance and cutting Income Tax is a winning combination. Has been for decades.

    I have no idea how to fix this.
    If it doesn't get fixed eventually people are going to go for someone like Corbyn.

    Break the system and start again.
    That sounds like a great outcome, provided we can find someone who is like Corbyn, except for the antisemitism, the stale dogmatism, the lack of interest in persuasion and the absence of leadership abilities. And probably a bunch of other negative traits.

    At what stage do you conclude that there's more wrong than right, and that things are getting worse rather than better, so you might as well shake things up rather than hope that the country changes direction spontaneously?
    Corbyn was a 70's Socialist. Not at all suitable for the 2020's. In addition to the drawbacks you list.
    There will come a time when a radical implementing real change does emerge again.
    But it will be a radicalism of the future, not of the past, or of the present.
    Our current PM is exactly that. A radical implementing real change.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 31,040
    edited December 2021
    Eabhal said:

    Am on the last train from Queen Street to Waverley.

    The people of Scotland elegantly drop their makes to sup at cans of liquid gold.

    My heart rate returns to 50 having sprinted from Central (slight mixup).

    50? See a doctor!
    Edit: or are you Laura Muir?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    Comparing General election numbers of votes with by-election votes is indeed pathetic. And dishonest.

    Of course if you do it by % of the vote you get a very different - and perhaps more accurate - picture

    2021 - 30.9%
    2019 - 23.5%
    2017 - 29.3%
    2015 - 19%
    2010 - 19.3%
    2005 - 27.5%
    2001 - 37.5%
    1997 - 35.1%
    1992 - 21.6%

    Again the major caveat is that this was a by-election rather than a GE but even so it is still the best performance by a Labour candidate there since the Blair era.
    It was a meh by election. Partisans are furiously trying to spin it, but it was smack in the middle of expectations.
    Suggests the Tories are falling back, but Labour isn't looking like forcing a Hung Parliament yet. Which we knew already really.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 709

    Eabhal said:

    Am on the last train from Queen Street to Waverley.

    The people of Scotland elegantly drop their makes to sup at cans of liquid gold.

    My heart rate returns to 50 having sprinted from Central (slight mixup).

    50? See a doctor!
    Edit: or are you Laura Muir?
    I can get it down to 44 if I don't drink and run a bit.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    Farooq said:

    dixiedean said:

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    It is obvious that this would be the way it would happen, despite the very good reasons why it shouldn't. The politicians look to the opinion polls, the focus groups and precedent. Raising National Insurance and cutting Income Tax is a winning combination. Has been for decades.

    I have no idea how to fix this.
    If it doesn't get fixed eventually people are going to go for someone like Corbyn.

    Break the system and start again.
    That sounds like a great outcome, provided we can find someone who is like Corbyn, except for the antisemitism, the stale dogmatism, the lack of interest in persuasion and the absence of leadership abilities. And probably a bunch of other negative traits.

    At what stage do you conclude that there's more wrong than right, and that things are getting worse rather than better, so you might as well shake things up rather than hope that the country changes direction spontaneously?
    Corbyn was a 70's Socialist. Not at all suitable for the 2020's. In addition to the drawbacks you list.
    There will come a time when a radical implementing real change does emerge again.
    But it will be a radicalism of the future, not of the past, or of the present.
    Our current PM is exactly that. A radical implementing real change.
    He is? Do enlighten me.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    Eabhal said:

    My companion on this train is into Chess. Speaking in coordinates.

    Help me God.

    Today's game was a classic, longest move win in world championship history.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,920
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    TIMES: ⁦@RishiSunak plan to slash taxes #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466887366497513476?s=20

    Somebody making a pitch for the top job? Vrroom vrrroom.

    F**k off on cutting Income Tax. Reverse the NI cut first.

    Cutting Income Tax while having NI higher just further reduces the taxes that are paid on unearned incomes, while further penalising those on earned incomes.
    Not a hope. They are obviously pampering southern houseowners and their middle aged soon to retire children. Look at the increase to IHT threshold being mooted.
    IHT starts at £325,000 there are even plenty of homes in the North and Midlands and Scotland and Wales now which would come over that let alone in London and the South
    Yebbut... A couple can leave a house worth up to £1,000,000 to their descendants and not pay IHT.
    Yes but not everyone is married, some may have been married now single or never married and still want to leave their estate to their family
    Less than 5% of estates pay IHT.
    More and more estates have been brought into the IHT bracket as house prices rise and that will continue to be the case going forward
    So? People who have made lots of money not through their own hard work but by virtue of house price rises will pay some of it in taxes when they die. Seems very fair to me (as one of those people).
    To you maybe, not the public as a whole.

    IHT is one of the least popular taxes, only 15% want it increased, 41% want it decreased, 31% kept the same

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/03/10/budget-2020-what-tax-changes-would-be-popular
    On the list of taxes to reduce or increase in the same poll, it's middling - 14% and 13% respectively. If you ask people about it directly, they think yeah, be nice to leave some more to the kids. But it seems to be an illusion to think it that people give it much thought.
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