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Mayoral Mispricings – A new gambling maxim? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 2021 in General
imageMayoral Mispricings – A new gambling maxim? – politicalbetting.com

What is it with Mayoral Elections? My favourite bet of 2021 was laying Brian Rose for Mayor of London at single figure odds, despite his literal 0-1% chance of victory. Now 2022 looms and another inexplicable mispricing has appeared on the Mayoral ballots in May. Is this a trend?

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    edited November 2021
    First!

    Like a new variant in an undervaxxed country.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    Hi, I am O Mike Ron, I am new around these parts....
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,847
    Grrr. I'd vote for anyone that stopped calling it "Sheffield City Region".
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    Excellent spot @Quincel as ever.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2021
    I think its always worth having a look at these obscure markets at the volumes traded. Especially since as far as I understand it the volume should instantly be divided by 2 (since it counts both back and lay stake) if not possibly by 4 on Smarkets given the way the bots their operate.

    Earlier today we had a thread header about a market with the low triple digits traded. Now a thread header with a market with £1254 in total traded and looking at the chart all of that trading happened in just a very few bets with a heavy wodge placed on the Yorkshire Party just over a week ago when its line begins.

    Its almost as if betting on the market is a very cheap way to generate a story and publicity. Probably had less spent on that than much other forms of marketing would cost - and it doesn't fall under campaign spending if you're just placing a bet.

    PS there may be mispricing but there seems to be bugger all in the form of liquidity available.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,831

    I think its always worth having a look at these obscure markets at the volumes traded. Especially since as far as I understand it the volume should instantly be divided by 2 (since it counts both back and lay stake) if not possibly by 4 on Smarkets given the way the bots their operate.

    Earlier today we had a thread header about a market with the low triple digits traded. Now a thread header with a market with £1254 in total traded and looking at the chart all of that trading happened in just a very few bets with a heavy wodge placed on the Yorkshire Party just over a week ago when its line begins.

    Its almost as if betting on the market is a very cheap way to generate a story and publicity. Probably had less spent on that than much other forms of marketing would cost - and it doesn't fall under campaign spending if you're just placing a bet.

    This is somewhat true, though I'm not sure the dividing by two is right. We should also note that if you bet via the Smarkets Sportsbook app (SBK) then it doesn't show on the market volume but the prices are the same. My bets on this market alone are currently above the £1,607 which is showing as the total market volume.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,235

    Grrr. I'd vote for anyone that stopped calling it "Sheffield City Region".

    How about Greater Sheffield
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    Grrr. I'd vote for anyone that stopped calling it "Sheffield City Region".

    How about Greater Sheffield
    What was wrong with South Yorkshire?
    I live in North of Tyne Mayoral region. Despite being firmly south of the river. What was wrong with Northumberland?
    It is the historic county boundary after all.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    I find the airing of outrage from some that air traffic has been shut down from places like South Africa rather odd. A weird "we are being punished its so unfair, especially after we helped notify the world" attitude, when the same happened to the UK when the old Kent Covid appeared.

    It is has become a pretty standard measure that most countries have employed to a greater or less extent over the past 2 years. Ultimately, excluding NZ, isn't really about trying to totally stop the importation, rather to try and slow it / minimize the initial density of those cases, to try and buy some extra time.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,847
    edited November 2021

    Grrr. I'd vote for anyone that stopped calling it "Sheffield City Region".

    How about Greater Sheffield
    Lol, that's definitely a nope.

    To be fair, it is probably an improvement on the "People's Republic of South Yorkshire" (c) D Blunkett

    Just for the lolz, they should call it the "North Midlands"
  • Graham Medley
    @GrahamMedley
    ·
    2h
    It has outcompetes Delta, or at least grown exponentially in a popn which has quite high Delta-acquired immunity. That’s not the same same as more transmissible and/or more pathogenic. It’s sounding like a tiger, but might, just might, be a pussy cat
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    "New Covid variant is less worrying than delta, says Prof Chris Whitty

    Chief Medical Officer urges calm in face of warnings around omicron mutation, saying concern should focus on ‘immediate threats’"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/11/26/new-covid-variant-less-worrying-delta-says-prof-chris-whitty/
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,847
    dixiedean said:

    Grrr. I'd vote for anyone that stopped calling it "Sheffield City Region".

    How about Greater Sheffield
    What was wrong with South Yorkshire?
    I live in North of Tyne Mayoral region. Despite being firmly south of the river. What was wrong with Northumberland?
    It is the historic county boundary after all.
    It does include quite a bit of Derbyshire for some reason.

    I'm not sure they are quite grumpy enough in the Peak District to be accepted as part of Yorkshire.
  • dixiedean said:

    Grrr. I'd vote for anyone that stopped calling it "Sheffield City Region".

    How about Greater Sheffield
    What was wrong with South Yorkshire?
    I live in North of Tyne Mayoral region. Despite being firmly south of the river. What was wrong with Northumberland?
    It is the historic county boundary after all.
    The old South Yorkshire County Council had its headquarters in Barnsley.

    Such a thing is now unthinkable in our city obsessed times.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    dixiedean said:

    Grrr. I'd vote for anyone that stopped calling it "Sheffield City Region".

    How about Greater Sheffield
    What was wrong with South Yorkshire?
    I live in North of Tyne Mayoral region. Despite being firmly south of the river. What was wrong with Northumberland?
    It is the historic county boundary after all.
    It does include quite a bit of Derbyshire for some reason.

    I'm not sure they are quite grumpy enough in the Peak District to be accepted as part of Yorkshire.
    Non-constitluent members? Had no idea.
    Local government is a disastrous hotch-potch mess in this country.
    Who is responsible for any particular issue? Christ knows.
    Suits the powers that be in Whitehall to keep it that way.
  • Just interviewed exPM
    @GordonBrown
    for tonight’s
    @BBCNewsnight
    who calls “hoarding”/wastage of vaccine by G20 nations “probably biggest international public policy failure of our times”…

    And says SA President
    @CyrilRamaphosa
    “rightly” feels “very let down” over vaccine promises

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1464296500197052417?s=20

    FAKE NEWS, of course not properly challenged......and it will now become fact within a day or two.

    South Africa has asked Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Pfizer (PFE.N) to delay delivery of COVID-19 vaccines because it now has too much stock, health ministry officials said, as vaccine hesitancy slows an inoculation campaign.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/

    Brown has always lived in his own fantasy world.

    A fantasy world where he is some superman bringing salvation.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021

    Just interviewed exPM
    @GordonBrown
    for tonight’s
    @BBCNewsnight
    who calls “hoarding”/wastage of vaccine by G20 nations “probably biggest international public policy failure of our times”…

    And says SA President
    @CyrilRamaphosa
    “rightly” feels “very let down” over vaccine promises

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1464296500197052417?s=20

    FAKE NEWS, of course not properly challenged......and it will now become fact within a day or two.

    South Africa has asked Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Pfizer (PFE.N) to delay delivery of COVID-19 vaccines because it now has too much stock, health ministry officials said, as vaccine hesitancy slows an inoculation campaign.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/

    Brown has always lived in his own fantasy world.

    A fantasy world where he is some superman bringing salvation.
    My point is that this kind of crap isn't challenged, in fact Faisal Islam tweets it out (he of the constantly inaccurate Brexit stuff when at Sky), even though it is easy to verify the truth and I am already seeing it doing the round on the [email protected] days it becomes fact because it was on the BBC and there will be a whole load of "circular linking" across social media and websites.
  • Just interviewed exPM
    @GordonBrown
    for tonight’s
    @BBCNewsnight
    who calls “hoarding”/wastage of vaccine by G20 nations “probably biggest international public policy failure of our times”…

    And says SA President
    @CyrilRamaphosa
    “rightly” feels “very let down” over vaccine promises

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1464296500197052417?s=20

    FAKE NEWS, of course not properly challenged......and it will now become fact within a day or two.

    South Africa has asked Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Pfizer (PFE.N) to delay delivery of COVID-19 vaccines because it now has too much stock, health ministry officials said, as vaccine hesitancy slows an inoculation campaign.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/

    Brown has always lived in his own fantasy world.

    A fantasy world where he is some superman bringing salvation.
    My point is that this kind of crap isn't challenged, in fact Faisal Islam tweets it out (he of the constantly inaccurate Brexit stuff when at Sky), even though it is easy to verify the truth and I am already seeing it doing the round on the [email protected] days it becomes fact because it was on the BBC and there will be a whole load of "circular linking" across social media and websites.
    Islam is simply quoting Brown in those tweets. That's kinda of like basic 101 of journalism. Quote the interviewee.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021

    Just interviewed exPM
    @GordonBrown
    for tonight’s
    @BBCNewsnight
    who calls “hoarding”/wastage of vaccine by G20 nations “probably biggest international public policy failure of our times”…

    And says SA President
    @CyrilRamaphosa
    “rightly” feels “very let down” over vaccine promises

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1464296500197052417?s=20

    FAKE NEWS, of course not properly challenged......and it will now become fact within a day or two.

    South Africa has asked Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Pfizer (PFE.N) to delay delivery of COVID-19 vaccines because it now has too much stock, health ministry officials said, as vaccine hesitancy slows an inoculation campaign.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/

    Brown has always lived in his own fantasy world.

    A fantasy world where he is some superman bringing salvation.
    My point is that this kind of crap isn't challenged, in fact Faisal Islam tweets it out (he of the constantly inaccurate Brexit stuff when at Sky), even though it is easy to verify the truth and I am already seeing it doing the round on the [email protected] days it becomes fact because it was on the BBC and there will be a whole load of "circular linking" across social media and websites.
    Islam is simply quoting Brown in those tweets. That's kinda of like basic 101 of journalism. Quote the interviewee.

    It is amplifying a false take on things with no caveat that it is wrong. If you were really concerned about factual accuracy, you would also link to the news reports from only a couple of days ago stating that this claim isn't true. He has a big long thread, no "fact check", this is relevant, rather all the tweets are the same narrative, UK / G20 BADDDDDDD.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,847

    dixiedean said:

    Grrr. I'd vote for anyone that stopped calling it "Sheffield City Region".

    How about Greater Sheffield
    What was wrong with South Yorkshire?
    I live in North of Tyne Mayoral region. Despite being firmly south of the river. What was wrong with Northumberland?
    It is the historic county boundary after all.
    The old South Yorkshire County Council had its headquarters in Barnsley.

    Such a thing is now unthinkable in our city obsessed times.
    Indeed. Doncaster council is currently wasting lots of money on yet another pointless bid for it to become a city.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    All kinds of debris flying past my window. Garage door blown off.
    Crikey!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Just interviewed exPM
    @GordonBrown
    for tonight’s
    @BBCNewsnight
    who calls “hoarding”/wastage of vaccine by G20 nations “probably biggest international public policy failure of our times”…

    And says SA President
    @CyrilRamaphosa
    “rightly” feels “very let down” over vaccine promises

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1464296500197052417?s=20

    FAKE NEWS, of course not properly challenged......and it will now become fact within a day or two.

    South Africa has asked Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Pfizer (PFE.N) to delay delivery of COVID-19 vaccines because it now has too much stock, health ministry officials said, as vaccine hesitancy slows an inoculation campaign.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/

    Brown has always lived in his own fantasy world.

    A fantasy world where he is some superman bringing salvation.
    My point is that this kind of crap isn't challenged, in fact Faisal Islam tweets it out (he of the constantly inaccurate Brexit stuff when at Sky), even though it is easy to verify the truth and I am already seeing it doing the round on the [email protected] days it becomes fact because it was on the BBC and there will be a whole load of "circular linking" across social media and websites.
    Islam is simply quoting Brown in those tweets. That's kinda of like basic 101 of journalism. Quote the interviewee.

    It is amplifying a false take on things with no caveat that it is wrong. If you were really concerned about factual accuracy, you would also link to the news reports from only a couple of days ago stating that this claim isn't true. He has a big long thread, no "fact check", this is relevant, rather all the tweets are the same narrative, UK / G20 BADDDDDDD.
    Yes it’s a basic journalism FAIL
  • Leon said:

    Just interviewed exPM
    @GordonBrown
    for tonight’s
    @BBCNewsnight
    who calls “hoarding”/wastage of vaccine by G20 nations “probably biggest international public policy failure of our times”…

    And says SA President
    @CyrilRamaphosa
    “rightly” feels “very let down” over vaccine promises

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1464296500197052417?s=20

    FAKE NEWS, of course not properly challenged......and it will now become fact within a day or two.

    South Africa has asked Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Pfizer (PFE.N) to delay delivery of COVID-19 vaccines because it now has too much stock, health ministry officials said, as vaccine hesitancy slows an inoculation campaign.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/

    Brown has always lived in his own fantasy world.

    A fantasy world where he is some superman bringing salvation.
    My point is that this kind of crap isn't challenged, in fact Faisal Islam tweets it out (he of the constantly inaccurate Brexit stuff when at Sky), even though it is easy to verify the truth and I am already seeing it doing the round on the [email protected] days it becomes fact because it was on the BBC and there will be a whole load of "circular linking" across social media and websites.
    Islam is simply quoting Brown in those tweets. That's kinda of like basic 101 of journalism. Quote the interviewee.

    It is amplifying a false take on things with no caveat that it is wrong. If you were really concerned about factual accuracy, you would also link to the news reports from only a couple of days ago stating that this claim isn't true. He has a big long thread, no "fact check", this is relevant, rather all the tweets are the same narrative, UK / G20 BADDDDDDD.
    Yes it’s a basic journalism FAIL
    He doesn't care about accuracy.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Leon said:

    Just interviewed exPM
    @GordonBrown
    for tonight’s
    @BBCNewsnight
    who calls “hoarding”/wastage of vaccine by G20 nations “probably biggest international public policy failure of our times”…

    And says SA President
    @CyrilRamaphosa
    “rightly” feels “very let down” over vaccine promises

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1464296500197052417?s=20

    FAKE NEWS, of course not properly challenged......and it will now become fact within a day or two.

    South Africa has asked Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Pfizer (PFE.N) to delay delivery of COVID-19 vaccines because it now has too much stock, health ministry officials said, as vaccine hesitancy slows an inoculation campaign.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/

    Brown has always lived in his own fantasy world.

    A fantasy world where he is some superman bringing salvation.
    My point is that this kind of crap isn't challenged, in fact Faisal Islam tweets it out (he of the constantly inaccurate Brexit stuff when at Sky), even though it is easy to verify the truth and I am already seeing it doing the round on the [email protected] days it becomes fact because it was on the BBC and there will be a whole load of "circular linking" across social media and websites.
    Islam is simply quoting Brown in those tweets. That's kinda of like basic 101 of journalism. Quote the interviewee.

    It is amplifying a false take on things with no caveat that it is wrong. If you were really concerned about factual accuracy, you would also link to the news reports from only a couple of days ago stating that this claim isn't true. He has a big long thread, no "fact check", this is relevant, rather all the tweets are the same narrative, UK / G20 BADDDDDDD.
    Yes it’s a basic journalism FAIL
    He doesn't care about accuracy.
    It’s beyond inaccurate, it’s lying
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Just interviewed exPM
    @GordonBrown
    for tonight’s
    @BBCNewsnight
    who calls “hoarding”/wastage of vaccine by G20 nations “probably biggest international public policy failure of our times”…

    And says SA President
    @CyrilRamaphosa
    “rightly” feels “very let down” over vaccine promises

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1464296500197052417?s=20

    FAKE NEWS, of course not properly challenged......and it will now become fact within a day or two.

    South Africa has asked Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Pfizer (PFE.N) to delay delivery of COVID-19 vaccines because it now has too much stock, health ministry officials said, as vaccine hesitancy slows an inoculation campaign.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/

    Brown has always lived in his own fantasy world.

    A fantasy world where he is some superman bringing salvation.
    My point is that this kind of crap isn't challenged, in fact Faisal Islam tweets it out (he of the constantly inaccurate Brexit stuff when at Sky), even though it is easy to verify the truth and I am already seeing it doing the round on the [email protected] days it becomes fact because it was on the BBC and there will be a whole load of "circular linking" across social media and websites.
    Islam is simply quoting Brown in those tweets. That's kinda of like basic 101 of journalism. Quote the interviewee.

    It is amplifying a false take on things with no caveat that it is wrong. If you were really concerned about factual accuracy, you would also link to the news reports from only a couple of days ago stating that this claim isn't true. He has a big long thread, no "fact check", this is relevant, rather all the tweets are the same narrative, UK / G20 BADDDDDDD.
    Yes it’s a basic journalism FAIL
    He doesn't care about accuracy.
    It’s beyond inaccurate, it’s lying
    "inaccuracy" is journalistic speak for lying :-)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    Boris 'plans travel bans on MORE countries over Christmas'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10247609/Health-chiefs-call-calm-heads-warn-AGAINST-lockdown-Christmas.html

    If he bans European ski holidays and trips to Dubai, going to be hell to pay.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    LOL....wouldn't be France if this didn't happen...

    Married far-right firebrand Éric Zemmour gets chief aide pregnant

    Éric Zemmour, the hard-right pundit who has broken into the French presidential race, was facing scandal yesterday with a report that his campaign director, who is 35 years his junior, is expecting his child.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/married-far-right-firebrand-eric-zemmour-gets-chief-aide-pregnant-0b75v6mjr
  • Just interviewed exPM
    @GordonBrown
    for tonight’s
    @BBCNewsnight
    who calls “hoarding”/wastage of vaccine by G20 nations “probably biggest international public policy failure of our times”…

    And says SA President
    @CyrilRamaphosa
    “rightly” feels “very let down” over vaccine promises

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1464296500197052417?s=20

    FAKE NEWS, of course not properly challenged......and it will now become fact within a day or two.

    South Africa has asked Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Pfizer (PFE.N) to delay delivery of COVID-19 vaccines because it now has too much stock, health ministry officials said, as vaccine hesitancy slows an inoculation campaign.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/

    Brown has always lived in his own fantasy world.

    A fantasy world where he is some superman bringing salvation.
    The worst Chancellor and second-to-May the worst PM in a very long time. Utterly trashed the economy and is so delusional he suckers people into believing his mythologies.

    We still have people on this site even who buy into his twisted worldview over a decade on.
  • Just interviewed exPM @GordonBrown for tonight’s @BBCNewsnight who calls “hoarding”/wastage of vaccine by G20 nations “probably biggest international public policy failure of our times”…

    And says SA President @CyrilRamaphosa “rightly” feels “very let down” over vaccine promises

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1464296500197052417?s=20

    FAKE NEWS, of course not properly challenged......and it will now become fact within a day or two.

    South Africa has asked Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Pfizer (PFE.N) to delay delivery of COVID-19 vaccines because it now has too much stock, health ministry officials said, as vaccine hesitancy slows an inoculation campaign.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/

    And of course they binned off all the AZN because of piss poor research and government knee jerk reaction.

    But old Gordo, its the G20 fault.

    And South Africa is the only other country. Is that how this works?
  • Just interviewed exPM
    @GordonBrown
    for tonight’s
    @BBCNewsnight
    who calls “hoarding”/wastage of vaccine by G20 nations “probably biggest international public policy failure of our times”…

    And says SA President
    @CyrilRamaphosa
    “rightly” feels “very let down” over vaccine promises

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1464296500197052417?s=20

    FAKE NEWS, of course not properly challenged......and it will now become fact within a day or two.

    South Africa has asked Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Pfizer (PFE.N) to delay delivery of COVID-19 vaccines because it now has too much stock, health ministry officials said, as vaccine hesitancy slows an inoculation campaign.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/

    Brown has always lived in his own fantasy world.

    A fantasy world where he is some superman bringing salvation.
    The worst Chancellor and second-to-May the worst PM in a very long time. Utterly trashed the economy and is so delusional he suckers people into believing his mythologies.

    We still have people on this site even who buy into his twisted worldview over a decade on.
    Brown did not trash the economy and David Cameron was our worst Prime Minister since Lord North.
  • LOL....wouldn't be France if this didn't happen...

    Married far-right firebrand Éric Zemmour gets chief aide pregnant

    Éric Zemmour, the hard-right pundit who has broken into the French presidential race, was facing scandal yesterday with a report that his campaign director, who is 35 years his junior, is expecting his child.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/married-far-right-firebrand-eric-zemmour-gets-chief-aide-pregnant-0b75v6mjr

    This is satire, right?
  • Just interviewed exPM
    @GordonBrown
    for tonight’s
    @BBCNewsnight
    who calls “hoarding”/wastage of vaccine by G20 nations “probably biggest international public policy failure of our times”…

    And says SA President
    @CyrilRamaphosa
    “rightly” feels “very let down” over vaccine promises

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1464296500197052417?s=20

    FAKE NEWS, of course not properly challenged......and it will now become fact within a day or two.

    South Africa has asked Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Pfizer (PFE.N) to delay delivery of COVID-19 vaccines because it now has too much stock, health ministry officials said, as vaccine hesitancy slows an inoculation campaign.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/

    Brown has always lived in his own fantasy world.

    A fantasy world where he is some superman bringing salvation.
    The worst Chancellor and second-to-May the worst PM in a very long time. Utterly trashed the economy and is so delusional he suckers people into believing his mythologies.

    We still have people on this site even who buy into his twisted worldview over a decade on.
    Brown did not trash the economy and David Cameron was our worst Prime Minister since Lord North.
    He turned a budget surplus into a major deficit before the recession, which left the economy with a 10% budget deficit years after the end of the recession.

    Inexcusable recklessness.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 565
    edited November 2021

    LOL....wouldn't be France if this didn't happen...

    Married far-right firebrand Éric Zemmour gets chief aide pregnant

    Éric Zemmour, the hard-right pundit who has broken into the French presidential race, was facing scandal yesterday with a report that his campaign director, who is 35 years his junior, is expecting his child.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/married-far-right-firebrand-eric-zemmour-gets-chief-aide-pregnant-0b75v6mjr

    Isn't it almost expected to be a bit sleazy to be French President? I mean Sarkozy had Carla Bruni and Hollande had his scooter visits. It's just carrying on a long French tradition of love on the fringes of acceptability.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,085
    RH1992 said:

    LOL....wouldn't be France if this didn't happen...

    Married far-right firebrand Éric Zemmour gets chief aide pregnant

    Éric Zemmour, the hard-right pundit who has broken into the French presidential race, was facing scandal yesterday with a report that his campaign director, who is 35 years his junior, is expecting his child.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/married-far-right-firebrand-eric-zemmour-gets-chief-aide-pregnant-0b75v6mjr

    Isn't it almost expected to be a bit sleazy to be French President? I mean Sarkozy had Carla Bruni and Hollande had his scooter visits. It's just carrying on a long French tradition of love on the fringes of acceptability.
    Boris J is hardly a paragon of virtue.....
  • Just interviewed exPM
    @GordonBrown
    for tonight’s
    @BBCNewsnight
    who calls “hoarding”/wastage of vaccine by G20 nations “probably biggest international public policy failure of our times”…

    And says SA President
    @CyrilRamaphosa
    “rightly” feels “very let down” over vaccine promises

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1464296500197052417?s=20

    FAKE NEWS, of course not properly challenged......and it will now become fact within a day or two.

    South Africa has asked Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Pfizer (PFE.N) to delay delivery of COVID-19 vaccines because it now has too much stock, health ministry officials said, as vaccine hesitancy slows an inoculation campaign.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/

    Brown has always lived in his own fantasy world.

    A fantasy world where he is some superman bringing salvation.
    The worst Chancellor and second-to-May the worst PM in a very long time. Utterly trashed the economy and is so delusional he suckers people into believing his mythologies.

    We still have people on this site even who buy into his twisted worldview over a decade on.
    Brown did not trash the economy and David Cameron was our worst Prime Minister since Lord North.
    He turned a budget surplus into a major deficit before the recession, which left the economy with a 10% budget deficit years after the end of the recession.

    Inexcusable recklessness.
    He turned a budget deficit into a budget surplus and then a small deficit again but even so it made no difference to the global financial crisis.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 565

    RH1992 said:

    LOL....wouldn't be France if this didn't happen...

    Married far-right firebrand Éric Zemmour gets chief aide pregnant

    Éric Zemmour, the hard-right pundit who has broken into the French presidential race, was facing scandal yesterday with a report that his campaign director, who is 35 years his junior, is expecting his child.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/married-far-right-firebrand-eric-zemmour-gets-chief-aide-pregnant-0b75v6mjr

    Isn't it almost expected to be a bit sleazy to be French President? I mean Sarkozy had Carla Bruni and Hollande had his scooter visits. It's just carrying on a long French tradition of love on the fringes of acceptability.
    Boris J is hardly a paragon of virtue.....
    You're right, but surely he's the exception back until Major.
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114

    Just interviewed exPM
    @GordonBrown
    for tonight’s
    @BBCNewsnight
    who calls “hoarding”/wastage of vaccine by G20 nations “probably biggest international public policy failure of our times”…

    And says SA President
    @CyrilRamaphosa
    “rightly” feels “very let down” over vaccine promises

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1464296500197052417?s=20

    FAKE NEWS, of course not properly challenged......and it will now become fact within a day or two.

    South Africa has asked Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Pfizer (PFE.N) to delay delivery of COVID-19 vaccines because it now has too much stock, health ministry officials said, as vaccine hesitancy slows an inoculation campaign.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/

    Brown has always lived in his own fantasy world.

    A fantasy world where he is some superman bringing salvation.
    The worst Chancellor and second-to-May the worst PM in a very long time. Utterly trashed the economy and is so delusional he suckers people into believing his mythologies.

    We still have people on this site even who buy into his twisted worldview over a decade on.
    Brown did not trash the economy and David Cameron was our worst Prime Minister since Lord North.
    He turned a budget surplus into a major deficit before the recession, which left the economy with a 10% budget deficit years after the end of the recession.

    Inexcusable recklessness.
    He also was the final nail in the coffin for final salary pensions, certainly in the private sector. Many of us will have poorer retirements thanks to him.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756

    LOL....wouldn't be France if this didn't happen...

    Married far-right firebrand Éric Zemmour gets chief aide pregnant

    Éric Zemmour, the hard-right pundit who has broken into the French presidential race, was facing scandal yesterday with a report that his campaign director, who is 35 years his junior, is expecting his child.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/married-far-right-firebrand-eric-zemmour-gets-chief-aide-pregnant-0b75v6mjr

    What's the scandal exactly? This isn't the 1950s.
  • Andy_JS said:

    LOL....wouldn't be France if this didn't happen...

    Married far-right firebrand Éric Zemmour gets chief aide pregnant

    Éric Zemmour, the hard-right pundit who has broken into the French presidential race, was facing scandal yesterday with a report that his campaign director, who is 35 years his junior, is expecting his child.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/married-far-right-firebrand-eric-zemmour-gets-chief-aide-pregnant-0b75v6mjr

    What's the scandal exactly? This isn't the 1950s.
    Not since 2019 it isn't.
  • Grrr. I'd vote for anyone that stopped calling it "Sheffield City Region".

    How about Greater Sheffield
    Lol, that's definitely a nope.

    To be fair, it is probably an improvement on the "People's Republic of South Yorkshire" (c) D Blunkett

    Just for the lolz, they should call it the "North Midlands"
    How about ‘Mid Southlands’? A Scottish perspective.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Had I a Smarkets account I'd follow it. Newish exchange? Heard of it before but not much.
  • Oh, and got some snow this morning. I'd only paid vague attention to the weather forecast but it was a bit of a surprise. Just an inch or two.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,707
    edited November 2021

    Oh, and got some snow this morning. I'd only paid vague attention to the weather forecast but it was a bit of a surprise. Just an inch or two.

    You must have a decent altitude Mr Dancer?

    Cold and wet here in SW London (3C)
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,707

    Just interviewed exPM
    @GordonBrown
    for tonight’s
    @BBCNewsnight
    who calls “hoarding”/wastage of vaccine by G20 nations “probably biggest international public policy failure of our times”…

    And says SA President
    @CyrilRamaphosa
    “rightly” feels “very let down” over vaccine promises

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1464296500197052417?s=20

    FAKE NEWS, of course not properly challenged......and it will now become fact within a day or two.

    South Africa has asked Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Pfizer (PFE.N) to delay delivery of COVID-19 vaccines because it now has too much stock, health ministry officials said, as vaccine hesitancy slows an inoculation campaign.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/

    Brown has always lived in his own fantasy world.

    A fantasy world where he is some superman bringing salvation.
    The worst Chancellor and second-to-May the worst PM in a very long time. Utterly trashed the economy and is so delusional he suckers people into believing his mythologies.

    We still have people on this site even who buy into his twisted worldview over a decade on.
    Brown did not trash the economy and David Cameron was our worst Prime Minister since Lord North.
    He turned a budget surplus into a major deficit before the recession, which left the economy with a 10% budget deficit years after the end of the recession.

    Inexcusable recklessness.
    Cameron initiated the EU referendum and led a dreadful Remain campaign, resulting in multiple %s taken off our GDP. Cameron is the worst PM in my lifetime, potentially ever though the disingenuous fat philander currently residing in number 10 is giving him a good run for his money.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    Taz said:

    Just interviewed exPM
    @GordonBrown
    for tonight’s
    @BBCNewsnight
    who calls “hoarding”/wastage of vaccine by G20 nations “probably biggest international public policy failure of our times”…

    And says SA President
    @CyrilRamaphosa
    “rightly” feels “very let down” over vaccine promises

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1464296500197052417?s=20

    FAKE NEWS, of course not properly challenged......and it will now become fact within a day or two.

    South Africa has asked Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Pfizer (PFE.N) to delay delivery of COVID-19 vaccines because it now has too much stock, health ministry officials said, as vaccine hesitancy slows an inoculation campaign.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/

    Brown has always lived in his own fantasy world.

    A fantasy world where he is some superman bringing salvation.
    The worst Chancellor and second-to-May the worst PM in a very long time. Utterly trashed the economy and is so delusional he suckers people into believing his mythologies.

    We still have people on this site even who buy into his twisted worldview over a decade on.
    Brown did not trash the economy and David Cameron was our worst Prime Minister since Lord North.
    He turned a budget surplus into a major deficit before the recession, which left the economy with a 10% budget deficit years after the end of the recession.

    Inexcusable recklessness.
    He also was the final nail in the coffin for final salary pensions, certainly in the private sector. Many of us will have poorer retirements thanks to him.
    Inexorably demographics (at least until the pandemic) did that job.
  • Mr. (Miss?) S, relatively high up but not up a mountain or anything. Proved lucky in 2007. Even at the height of the flooding, things were ok (for the house, roads did get cut off).
  • Just perused the new Scottish boundaries. Ho ho.

    I can see why Douglas Ross is standing down. Moray has been effectively abolished and the dismembered chunks allocated to 3 neighbouring constituencies. This kind of thing is inevitable when the English Conservative Party makes sure that Jack is alright: the Jock Branch is left to hang.

    The SLDs are also filling their breeks.

    (On a trivial but personal note, pleased to see Ardnamurchan re-allocated to Argyll.)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074

    I find the airing of outrage from some that air traffic has been shut down from places like South Africa rather odd. A weird "we are being punished its so unfair, especially after we helped notify the world" attitude, when the same happened to the UK when the old Kent Covid appeared.

    It is has become a pretty standard measure that most countries have employed to a greater or less extent over the past 2 years. Ultimately, excluding NZ, isn't really about trying to totally stop the importation, rather to try and slow it / minimize the initial density of those cases, to try and buy some extra time.

    But waaaaaaaaaaa, what about my holibobs, why did they cancel my African holibobs in the middle of a global pandemic…?

    This winter is when it might dawn on people, that the UK is a long away ahead of the vast majority of the world, when it comes to managing the pandemic. There’s going to be a lot of restrictions still in place elsewhere.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    Sandpit said:

    I find the airing of outrage from some that air traffic has been shut down from places like South Africa rather odd. A weird "we are being punished its so unfair, especially after we helped notify the world" attitude, when the same happened to the UK when the old Kent Covid appeared.

    It is has become a pretty standard measure that most countries have employed to a greater or less extent over the past 2 years. Ultimately, excluding NZ, isn't really about trying to totally stop the importation, rather to try and slow it / minimize the initial density of those cases, to try and buy some extra time.

    But waaaaaaaaaaa, what about my holibobs, why did they cancel my African holibobs in the middle of a global pandemic…?

    This winter is when it might dawn on people, that the UK is a long away ahead of the vast majority of the world, when it comes to managing the pandemic. There’s going to be a lot of restrictions still in place elsewhere.
    Read the OP as “shot down” and he might have a point?
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    This is curious - infections on the flight will take 3-5 days before a test would be positive and that’s a high percentage for a “random” group of people.

    anna holligan 🎙
    @annaholligan
    ·
    8m
    Of the 600 passengers on flights from SA that landed in NL yesterday, 61 have tested positive for COVID19. It is not yet known whether they’re infected with new Omicron variant
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    Monty Panasar coming out to bat bowl for Michael Vaughan.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/11/26/michael-vaughan-does-not-deserve-see-reputation-trashed-bbc/

    ”I remember him saying he needed to know about all religions because it would make him a better leader of men - it typified how his leadership skills and thinking were ahead of his time. On another occasion, I recall him saying “It gets boring if we are all the same", and that different cultures would make for a stronger dressing room.”



    “It feels like the BBC and BT have taken the easy option by blocking him from broadcasting this winter. The BBC say they do not want him commenting on a story in which he features, but that should not stop him analysing the Ashes.

    “Cricket has serious issues to confront in terms of endemic racism, many of which have been highlighted by Rafiq's evidence provided to the Culture, Media and Sport Committee.

    “But to blacklist one of the best England captains we have produced on the basis of historic and still unproven allegations feels wrong, and a distortion of natural justice.”
  • Sandpit said:

    I find the airing of outrage from some that air traffic has been shut down from places like South Africa rather odd. A weird "we are being punished its so unfair, especially after we helped notify the world" attitude, when the same happened to the UK when the old Kent Covid appeared.

    It is has become a pretty standard measure that most countries have employed to a greater or less extent over the past 2 years. Ultimately, excluding NZ, isn't really about trying to totally stop the importation, rather to try and slow it / minimize the initial density of those cases, to try and buy some extra time.

    But waaaaaaaaaaa, what about my holibobs, why did they cancel my African holibobs in the middle of a global pandemic…?

    This winter is when it might dawn on people, that the UK is a long away ahead of the vast majority of the world, when it comes to managing the pandemic. There’s going to be a lot of restrictions still in place elsewhere.
    The (often justified) criticism of travel bans is that they only delay arrival of the variant and “what are you doing with the time this buys you?” For possibly the first time we actually ARE doing something - administering booster shots and extending coverage into younger cohorts.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074

    Oh, and got some snow this morning. I'd only paid vague attention to the weather forecast but it was a bit of a surprise. Just an inch or two.

    November snow is a little early, isn’t it?

    Reading lots of reports of bad weather in the UK this morning, hope PBers are all okay.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    eek said:

    This is curious - infections on the flight will take 3-5 days before a test would be positive and that’s a high percentage for a “random” group of people.

    anna holligan 🎙
    @annaholligan
    ·
    8m
    Of the 600 passengers on flights from SA that landed in NL yesterday, 61 have tested positive for COVID19. It is not yet known whether they’re infected with new Omicron variant

    I would suggest that’s actually encouraging, if true. It suggests widespread infection in South Africa but also that the strain causing it doesn’t lead to serious illness.
  • Mr. Sandpit, winds sounded pretty fierce here and we're pretty inland. Must've been very rough on the coast.
  • From a thread:

    Sir John [Bell, Regius Chair Medicine Oxford], added he had been told by a senior S African clinician that there was - as yet - no sign of intensive care units filling up. "There are not a lot of people dying in intensive care units from this virus at the moment, which is a really important observation", he said...

    https://twitter.com/paulnuki/status/1464383584974823425?s=21
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    This is curious - infections on the flight will take 3-5 days before a test would be positive and that’s a high percentage for a “random” group of people.

    anna holligan 🎙
    @annaholligan
    ·
    8m
    Of the 600 passengers on flights from SA that landed in NL yesterday, 61 have tested positive for COVID19. It is not yet known whether they’re infected with new Omicron variant

    I would suggest that’s actually encouraging, if true. It suggests widespread infection in South Africa but also that the strain causing it doesn’t lead to serious illness.
    Calum Semple on BBC just now a refreshingly calm voice. Expects vaccination to protect against the new strain, and even if you get ill, it won’t be severe. It’s easy at times like this to pay attention to the those who shout loudest, but often they are not the ones to listen to.
  • Grrr. I'd vote for anyone that stopped calling it "Sheffield City Region".

    How about Greater Sheffield
    Lol, that's definitely a nope.

    To be fair, it is probably an improvement on the "People's Republic of South Yorkshire" (c) D Blunkett

    Just for the lolz, they should call it the "North Midlands"
    How about ‘Mid Southlands’? A Scottish perspective.
    It's not in Scotland. Always wondered why the Central Belt is somewhere near the Arctic.
  • RH1992 said:

    LOL....wouldn't be France if this didn't happen...

    Married far-right firebrand Éric Zemmour gets chief aide pregnant

    Éric Zemmour, the hard-right pundit who has broken into the French presidential race, was facing scandal yesterday with a report that his campaign director, who is 35 years his junior, is expecting his child.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/married-far-right-firebrand-eric-zemmour-gets-chief-aide-pregnant-0b75v6mjr

    Isn't it almost expected to be a bit sleazy to be French President? I mean Sarkozy had Carla Bruni and Hollande had his scooter visits. It's just carrying on a long French tradition of love on the fringes of acceptability.
    I remember DSK's quote "orgies were rare".
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482
    A localised data observation. At my kid’s school, about a third of the students in years 7-8 are isolating having tested positive. They all test twice a week. In turn about 20% of the faculty are off for the same reason. They test all the time too. With a slight bias in the positivity stats towards teachers at reception to year 2 level.

    And yet extraordinarily, there is a single child in that younger age group currently off with Covid. Meanwhile the whole lot of them have an annoying and lingering “cough and cold”.
  • ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    This is curious - infections on the flight will take 3-5 days before a test would be positive and that’s a high percentage for a “random” group of people.

    anna holligan 🎙
    @annaholligan
    ·
    8m
    Of the 600 passengers on flights from SA that landed in NL yesterday, 61 have tested positive for COVID19. It is not yet known whether they’re infected with new Omicron variant

    I would suggest that’s actually encouraging, if true. It suggests widespread infection in South Africa but also that the strain causing it doesn’t lead to serious illness.
    Calum Semple on BBC just now a refreshingly calm voice. Expects vaccination to protect against the new strain, and even if you get ill, it won’t be severe. It’s easy at times like this to pay attention to the those who shout loudest, but often they are not the ones to listen to.
    That’s Sandpit telt. (“This winter is when it might dawn on people, that the UK is a long away ahead of the vast majority of the world, when it comes to managing the pandemic.” Totally barking.)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    dixiedean said:

    Grrr. I'd vote for anyone that stopped calling it "Sheffield City Region".

    How about Greater Sheffield
    What was wrong with South Yorkshire?
    I live in North of Tyne Mayoral region. Despite being firmly south of the river. What was wrong with Northumberland?
    It is the historic county boundary after all.
    +1000
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    This is curious - infections on the flight will take 3-5 days before a test would be positive and that’s a high percentage for a “random” group of people.

    anna holligan 🎙
    @annaholligan
    ·
    8m
    Of the 600 passengers on flights from SA that landed in NL yesterday, 61 have tested positive for COVID19. It is not yet known whether they’re infected with new Omicron variant

    I would suggest that’s actually encouraging, if true. It suggests widespread infection in South Africa but also that the strain causing it doesn’t lead to serious illness.
    True but we don’t know that

    3-5 days for symptoms to appear
    +10 days for illness to reach hospitalisation levels
    +another 10 days before death (if you get to that point)

    My current point is we are between point 1 and point 2 with a lot of people infected. Hopefully this is mutated into a minor illness but we won’t know reality for a week or more.

    And I hope it is mild but we need to wait and see.
  • I find the airing of outrage from some that air traffic has been shut down from places like South Africa rather odd. A weird "we are being punished its so unfair, especially after we helped notify the world" attitude, when the same happened to the UK when the old Kent Covid appeared.

    It is has become a pretty standard measure that most countries have employed to a greater or less extent over the past 2 years. Ultimately, excluding NZ, isn't really about trying to totally stop the importation, rather to try and slow it / minimize the initial density of those cases, to try and buy some extra time.

    given restrictions have not worked for two years nearly not sure why OTT measures would now - Live with it , old people die , humans ned to live before they die , its not a hard concept.Covid is not going away and it will mutate for ever - just live with it
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,779

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    This is curious - infections on the flight will take 3-5 days before a test would be positive and that’s a high percentage for a “random” group of people.

    anna holligan 🎙
    @annaholligan
    ·
    8m
    Of the 600 passengers on flights from SA that landed in NL yesterday, 61 have tested positive for COVID19. It is not yet known whether they’re infected with new Omicron variant

    I would suggest that’s actually encouraging, if true. It suggests widespread infection in South Africa but also that the strain causing it doesn’t lead to serious illness.
    Calum Semple on BBC just now a refreshingly calm voice. Expects vaccination to protect against the new strain, and even if you get ill, it won’t be severe. It’s easy at times like this to pay attention to the those who shout loudest, but often they are not the ones to listen to.
    Probably a lot of people will need to be reassured at the moment that it hasn't mutated into the Black Death.

    The trouble is that the NHS is under a lot of strain even as things are now, and even if Omicron caused no more severe illness than Delta for anyone, it still seems to have a large advantage in transmissibility, for whatever reasons.

    As always, however much vaccines help, if the number of infections rises, the numbers of both vaccinated and unvaccinated in hospital will go up in proportion to infections. The problem is the same one we've always had - even if only a small percentage of people are at risk of death, the number of infections has to be controlled or the NHS won't be able to cope.
  • Mr. Chris, more's the pity, a few antibiotics would cure it immediately.

    Omicron? Don't you mean Xi?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,898
    edited November 2021
    We seem to be featuring (thin ) markets from Smarkets a lot these days , now I know Shadsy has moved to there from Ladbrokes but its not doing a service on here to feature heavily Smarkets when liquidity is very poor on politics . Look forward to the days when we get back to discussing what Ladbrokes , William hill, Sportingindex are offering
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,779
    edited November 2021
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    This is curious - infections on the flight will take 3-5 days before a test would be positive and that’s a high percentage for a “random” group of people.

    anna holligan 🎙
    @annaholligan
    ·
    8m
    Of the 600 passengers on flights from SA that landed in NL yesterday, 61 have tested positive for COVID19. It is not yet known whether they’re infected with new Omicron variant

    I would suggest that’s actually encouraging, if true. It suggests widespread infection in South Africa but also that the strain causing it doesn’t lead to serious illness.
    True but we don’t know that

    3-5 days for symptoms to appear
    +10 days for illness to reach hospitalisation levels
    +another 10 days before death (if you get to that point)

    My current point is we are between point 1 and point 2 with a lot of people infected. Hopefully this is mutated into a minor illness but we won’t know reality for a week or more.

    And I hope it is mild but we need to wait and see.
    Hoping it's mutated into a milder form is just wishful thinking. We don't have anywhere near enough evidence to say whether it's more or less severe than Delta. Given the limited death rate even in an immunologically naive population, of course they will be seeing a lot of mild cases, especially if significant numbers of them are reinfections, and also given that the South Africa has a much younger population than the UK - only 2-3% over 65.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    This is curious - infections on the flight will take 3-5 days before a test would be positive and that’s a high percentage for a “random” group of people.

    anna holligan 🎙
    @annaholligan
    ·
    8m
    Of the 600 passengers on flights from SA that landed in NL yesterday, 61 have tested positive for COVID19. It is not yet known whether they’re infected with new Omicron variant

    I would suggest that’s actually encouraging, if true. It suggests widespread infection in South Africa but also that the strain causing it doesn’t lead to serious illness.
    Calum Semple on BBC just now a refreshingly calm voice. Expects vaccination to protect against the new strain, and even if you get ill, it won’t be severe. It’s easy at times like this to pay attention to the those who shout loudest, but often they are not the ones to listen to.
    That’s Sandpit telt. (“This winter is when it might dawn on people, that the UK is a long away ahead of the vast majority of the world, when it comes to managing the pandemic.” Totally barking.)
    Nope, I’m on the same page as @Sandpit. We have had a painful few months of high cases and weekly deaths in four figures, but it’s put us in a better place now than a lot of other countries. We may be the most ‘normal’ country at Christmas in Europe. But I could be very wrong.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    This is curious - infections on the flight will take 3-5 days before a test would be positive and that’s a high percentage for a “random” group of people.

    anna holligan 🎙
    @annaholligan
    ·
    8m
    Of the 600 passengers on flights from SA that landed in NL yesterday, 61 have tested positive for COVID19. It is not yet known whether they’re infected with new Omicron variant

    I would suggest that’s actually encouraging, if true. It suggests widespread infection in South Africa but also that the strain causing it doesn’t lead to serious illness.
    Calum Semple on BBC just now a refreshingly calm voice. Expects vaccination to protect against the new strain, and even if you get ill, it won’t be severe. It’s easy at times like this to pay attention to the those who shout loudest, but often they are not the ones to listen to.
    That’s Sandpit telt. (“This winter is when it might dawn on people, that the UK is a long away ahead of the vast majority of the world, when it comes to managing the pandemic.” Totally barking.)
    That’s because the UK is a long way ahead of the vast majority of the world. There’s dozens of countries where people aren’t getting vaccinated, the virus hasn’t really got around yet, and are places where new mutations are likely to develop.

    UK has more than a quarter of the population with booster doses already, only Israel and the UAE are close to that number. US is at 10%.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,898
    edited November 2021
    Chris said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    This is curious - infections on the flight will take 3-5 days before a test would be positive and that’s a high percentage for a “random” group of people.

    anna holligan 🎙
    @annaholligan
    ·
    8m
    Of the 600 passengers on flights from SA that landed in NL yesterday, 61 have tested positive for COVID19. It is not yet known whether they’re infected with new Omicron variant

    I would suggest that’s actually encouraging, if true. It suggests widespread infection in South Africa but also that the strain causing it doesn’t lead to serious illness.
    True but we don’t know that

    3-5 days for symptoms to appear
    +10 days for illness to reach hospitalisation levels
    +another 10 days before death (if you get to that point)

    My current point is we are between point 1 and point 2 with a lot of people infected. Hopefully this is mutated into a minor illness but we won’t know reality for a week or more.

    And I hope it is mild but we need to wait and see.
    Hoping it's mutated into a milder form is just wishful thinking. We don't have anywhere near enough evidence to say whether it's more or less severe than Delta. Given the limited death rate even in an immunologically naive population, of course they will be seeing a lot of mild cases, especially if significant numbers of them are reinfections, and also given that the South Africa has a much younger population than the UK - only 2-3% over 65.
    Unless we want to live like this for the rest of time we have to accept covid will mutate and live with it because it is going to . No point in measures now that ruin economies and sap humans morale when it will never be the end. Governments should stop pretending they can stop covid and even this mutation.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,664
    Good header @Quincel , I agree.

    Of the the following odds-on bets I currently like, which is the stand-out given current prices? Time to settlement needs to be factored in. Odds are BF or Smarkets.

    Raducanu for SPOTY 1.12
    CP By-Election double 1.20
    Democrats Popular Vote Winner 1.25
    LP South Yorkshire 1.38 (Quincel's tip)
    2022 GOP Senate Control 1.41
    CP Most Seats at next GE 1.57

  • From a thread:

    Sir John [Bell, Regius Chair Medicine Oxford], added he had been told by a senior S African clinician that there was - as yet - no sign of intensive care units filling up. "There are not a lot of people dying in intensive care units from this virus at the moment, which is a really important observation", he said...

    https://twitter.com/paulnuki/status/1464383584974823425?s=21

    Exactly - People fear covid restrictions more than covid .End restrictions and stop obsessing about it and it will go away as a story and people get on with life
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,612

    dixiedean said:

    Grrr. I'd vote for anyone that stopped calling it "Sheffield City Region".

    How about Greater Sheffield
    What was wrong with South Yorkshire?
    I live in North of Tyne Mayoral region. Despite being firmly south of the river. What was wrong with Northumberland?
    It is the historic county boundary after all.
    +1000
    Sheffield is and always will be a distinguished part of the West Riding, despite being in the midlands.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,664
    edited November 2021

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    This is curious - infections on the flight will take 3-5 days before a test would be positive and that’s a high percentage for a “random” group of people.

    anna holligan 🎙
    @annaholligan
    ·
    8m
    Of the 600 passengers on flights from SA that landed in NL yesterday, 61 have tested positive for COVID19. It is not yet known whether they’re infected with new Omicron variant

    I would suggest that’s actually encouraging, if true. It suggests widespread infection in South Africa but also that the strain causing it doesn’t lead to serious illness.
    True but we don’t know that

    3-5 days for symptoms to appear
    +10 days for illness to reach hospitalisation levels
    +another 10 days before death (if you get to that point)

    My current point is we are between point 1 and point 2 with a lot of people infected. Hopefully this is mutated into a minor illness but we won’t know reality for a week or more.

    And I hope it is mild but we need to wait and see.
    Hoping it's mutated into a milder form is just wishful thinking. We don't have anywhere near enough evidence to say whether it's more or less severe than Delta. Given the limited death rate even in an immunologically naive population, of course they will be seeing a lot of mild cases, especially if significant numbers of them are reinfections, and also given that the South Africa has a much younger population than the UK - only 2-3% over 65.
    Unless we want to live like this for the rest of time we have to accept covid will mutate and live with it because it is going to . No point in measures now that ruin economies and sap humans morale when it will never be the end. Governments should stop pretending they can stop covid and even this mutation.
    One of the highest vaccination rates in Europe and see what Portugal leaders did yesterday. Going backwards. Politicians are petrified and prone to knee-jerk reactions, especially now that they have the ability to apply measures which would previously have been unthinkable. In their toolboxes now. Dangerous times.
  • Reportedly, the (unvaccinated) omicron patient in Belgium returned from Egypt 11 days ago.

    To me this strongly indicates community transmission in Belgium. I don't see how reconcile an actual 11-day incubation time with the claims of rapid spread in South Africa.


    https://twitter.com/ct_bergstrom/status/1464377201369882627?s=21
  • RogerRoger Posts: 15,380
    edited November 2021
    Just being reading about Michael Vaughan. There's always more to these stories than meets the eye. The BBC treatment of him sounded harsh. A few ambiguous words on a cricket field doesn't sound like grounds to destroy someone's career.

    After a small amount of investigation it turns out he's an avid Trump supporter. Why would someone who wasn't a racist misogynist climate change denying Brexiteer be a Trump fan? It's not because he's lowering the tax threshold in Yorkshire.....

    The big question is why did the BBC emlploy such a person in the first place
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,831
    edited November 2021

    We seem to be featuring (thin ) markets from Smarkets a lot these days , now I know Shadsy has moved to there from Ladbrokes but its not doing a service on here to feature heavily Smarkets when liquidity is very poor on politics . Look forward to the days when we get back to discussing what Ladbrokes , William hill, Sportingindex are offering

    People are over-interpreting the reasons behind this. Smarkets simply offer many interesting markets which no-one else does. If people on this site want more liquidity they are welcome to fix that issue themselves by betting on the site.

    When prices are offered at a range of places I mention it, but often the exchanges have better prices then too so get namechecked more.

    SportingIndex currently has 2 politics markets, Smarkets has 124. I want to cover a new bet each week, it's inevitably going to spend more time on the site with the range.

    The ideal solution is for PredictIt to allow UK punters, since it is liquid and the prices often insane. But alas...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Well, whatever I was expecting to see when I looked out of the window this morning, it wasn’t four inches of snow and more still falling.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,612
    David Miliband popped up on Today this morning to remind us of how we might have a moderate Labour government led by a top quality political communicator with intelligent views.

    He also noted that the refugee crisis is mostly a burden for people a long way away from us, and that solutions lie in better governance and better diplomacy in the states from which they originate.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,085
    Quincel said:

    We seem to be featuring (thin ) markets from Smarkets a lot these days , now I know Shadsy has moved to there from Ladbrokes but its not doing a service on here to feature heavily Smarkets when liquidity is very poor on politics . Look forward to the days when we get back to discussing what Ladbrokes , William hill, Sportingindex are offering

    People are over-interpreting the reasons behind this. Smarkets simply offer many interesting markets which no-one else does. If people on this site want more liquidity they are welcome to fix that issue themselves by betting on the site.

    When prices are offered at a range of places I mention it, but often the exchanges have better prices then too so get namechecked more.
    I do agree that a bit more on betting tips would never go amiss - we've a couple of byelections coming up and I reckon there's money to made backing Tory holds and sharing the info used to happen a lot more on this site.
  • Mr. Roger, someone holding a political opinion that isn't yours is not sufficient grounds for blacklisting them.

    Mr. Quincel, I did check Betfair for said market and it wasn't up.

    One of the reasons I opted for Ladbrokes for most of my F1 betting was that it had more betting options than some other sites.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,412
    algarkirk said:

    David Miliband popped up on Today this morning to remind us of how we might have a moderate Labour government led by a top quality political communicator with intelligent views.

    He also noted that the refugee crisis is mostly a burden for people a long way away from us, and that solutions lie in better governance and better diplomacy in the states from which they originate.

    Wow! What a colossus to finally work out people flee dictators, despots and bad governance that creates violence poverty or misery.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074

    From a thread:

    Sir John [Bell, Regius Chair Medicine Oxford], added he had been told by a senior S African clinician that there was - as yet - no sign of intensive care units filling up. "There are not a lot of people dying in intensive care units from this virus at the moment, which is a really important observation", he said...

    https://twitter.com/paulnuki/status/1464383584974823425?s=21

    That’s a very good sign. If healthcare systems are not getting overwhelmed, then this version isn’t significantly more infectious and/or more dangerous than the already endemic Delta variant.

    Fingers crossed this can be quickly determined by the relevant scientists. Everyone needs to keep calm and carry on.

    With an endemic disease, there are always going to be the occasional scare about something new. When it happens, we need to stop travel as much as possible from the affected area, to allow time for analysis of the strain, then we can likely go back to normal pretty quickly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    Roger said:

    Just being reading about Michael Vaughan. There's always more to these stories than meets the eye. The BBC treatment of him sounded harsh. A few ambiguous words on a cricket field doesn't sound like grounds to destroy someone's career.

    After a small amount of investigation it turns out he's an avid Trump supporter. Why would someone who wasn't a racist misogynist climate change denying Brexiteer be a Trump fan? It's not because he's lowering the tax threshold in Yorkshire.....

    The big question is why did the BBC emlploy such a person in the first place

    Even if he was a Trump supporter that does not necessarily mean he is a racist, after all 19% of Black American men voted for Trump in 2020 as did 36% of US Asians and 57% of US whites.

    Nor does it have anything to do with his ability as a cricket commentator. That should be judged on his ability to give effective commentary not because of political thought police
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,664
    edited November 2021

    Mr. Roger, someone holding a political opinion that isn't yours is not sufficient grounds for blacklisting them.

    Mr. Quincel, I did check Betfair for said market and it wasn't up.

    One of the reasons I opted for Ladbrokes for most of my F1 betting was that it had more betting options than some other sites.

    Market is up with Smarkets "South Yorkshire Mayoral Election".

    Just checked again and it is there, though I see price has dropped to 1.1. (I got in at 1.38 earlier.)

    Very thin market. Book percentage on the Back side is poor. On the Lay side not too bad (95.92%).

    Market best avoided now until liquidity comes back in.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 15,380

    Mr. Roger, someone holding a political opinion that isn't yours is not sufficient grounds for blacklisting them.

    Mr. Quincel, I did check Betfair for said market and it wasn't up.

    One of the reasons I opted for Ladbrokes for most of my F1 betting was that it had more betting options than some other sites.

    Even if that political opinion includes a distaste for Pakistanis?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482
    Roger said:

    Just being reading about Michael Vaughan. There's always more to these stories than meets the eye. The BBC treatment of him sounded harsh. A few ambiguous words on a cricket field doesn't sound like grounds to destroy someone's career.

    After a small amount of investigation it turns out he's an avid Trump supporter. Why would someone who wasn't a racist misogynist climate change denying Brexiteer be a Trump fan? It's not because he's lowering the tax threshold in Yorkshire.....

    The big question is why did the BBC emlploy such a person in the first place

    What a bizarre place the inside of your head must be.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,664

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    This is curious - infections on the flight will take 3-5 days before a test would be positive and that’s a high percentage for a “random” group of people.

    anna holligan 🎙
    @annaholligan
    ·
    8m
    Of the 600 passengers on flights from SA that landed in NL yesterday, 61 have tested positive for COVID19. It is not yet known whether they’re infected with new Omicron variant

    I would suggest that’s actually encouraging, if true. It suggests widespread infection in South Africa but also that the strain causing it doesn’t lead to serious illness.
    True but we don’t know that

    3-5 days for symptoms to appear
    +10 days for illness to reach hospitalisation levels
    +another 10 days before death (if you get to that point)

    My current point is we are between point 1 and point 2 with a lot of people infected. Hopefully this is mutated into a minor illness but we won’t know reality for a week or more.

    And I hope it is mild but we need to wait and see.
    Hoping it's mutated into a milder form is just wishful thinking. We don't have anywhere near enough evidence to say whether it's more or less severe than Delta. Given the limited death rate even in an immunologically naive population, of course they will be seeing a lot of mild cases, especially if significant numbers of them are reinfections, and also given that the South Africa has a much younger population than the UK - only 2-3% over 65.
    Unless we want to live like this for the rest of time we have to accept covid will mutate and live with it because it is going to . No point in measures now that ruin economies and sap humans morale when it will never be the end. Governments should stop pretending they can stop covid and even this mutation.
    Yes, and the "sap human spirit" aspect feeds in the the conspiracy theories of some of the crazy cats out there.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 15,380
    edited November 2021
    algarkirk said:

    David Miliband popped up on Today this morning to remind us of how we might have a moderate Labour government led by a top quality political communicator with intelligent views.

    He also noted that the refugee crisis is mostly a burden for people a long way away from us, and that solutions lie in better governance and better diplomacy in the states from which they originate.

    If it wasn't for the ambitions of his ridiculous brother I've no doubt he would have become Prime Minister and we would have been spared Brexit and Johnson and all that followed
  • Mr. Roger, you didn't cite racism you cited supporting a political figure.

    It's worth recalling that people are innocent until proven guilty. This isn't Cardassia Prime.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617
    Direct quote from ICU consultant in Soweto, via AP - https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-joe-biden-science-health-lifestyle-83cad19ead1725137bd7c3a371792ab7

    “Young people, in their 20s to just over their late 30s, are coming in with moderate to severe disease, some needing intensive care. About 65% are not vaccinated and most of the rest are only half-vaccinated.”

    i.e. her critical care facility is filling up primarily with the unvaccinated, just like ours have been for months.

    An early indication here of a mixed bag. It's possible, given that we've previously been getting reports of rapid spread, that Omicron is more transmissible than Delta, but not necessarily much better at defeating the immunity conferred by vaccines. This would be consistent with two previously advanced theories: that Covid-19 will evolve to become more transmissible but less pathogenic over time, and that vaccine escape is likely to be gradual rather than sudden.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    Roger said:

    algarkirk said:

    David Miliband popped up on Today this morning to remind us of how we might have a moderate Labour government led by a top quality political communicator with intelligent views.

    He also noted that the refugee crisis is mostly a burden for people a long way away from us, and that solutions lie in better governance and better diplomacy in the states from which they originate.

    If it wasn't for the ambitions of his ridiculous brother I've no doubt he would have become Prime Minister and we would have been spared Brexit and Johnson and all that followed
    I doubt he would have won a majority in 2015 or even most seats. He might have ensured another hung parliament though which would have meant the Tory-LD coalition would have continued and no EU referendum in 2016 but also UKIP still polling in double figures
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,412
    Roger said:

    algarkirk said:

    David Miliband popped up on Today this morning to remind us of how we might have a moderate Labour government led by a top quality political communicator with intelligent views.

    He also noted that the refugee crisis is mostly a burden for people a long way away from us, and that solutions lie in better governance and better diplomacy in the states from which they originate.

    If it wasn't for the ambitions of his ridiculous brother I've no doubt he would have become Prime Minister and we would have been spared Brexit and Johnson and all that followed
    Although Ed is probably the more intelligent, more emotionally intelligent and the more visionary politician. Just geeky so the press can slaughter him with a banana 🍌 or bacon 🥓 roll
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    pigeon said:

    Direct quote from ICU consultant in Soweto, via AP - https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-joe-biden-science-health-lifestyle-83cad19ead1725137bd7c3a371792ab7

    “Young people, in their 20s to just over their late 30s, are coming in with moderate to severe disease, some needing intensive care. About 65% are not vaccinated and most of the rest are only half-vaccinated.”

    i.e. her critical care facility is filling up primarily with the unvaccinated, just like ours have been for months.

    An early indication here of a mixed bag. It's possible, given that we've previously been getting reports of rapid spread, that Omicron is more transmissible than Delta, but not necessarily much better at defeating the immunity conferred by vaccines. This would be consistent with two previously advanced theories: that Covid-19 will evolve to become more transmissible but less pathogenic over time, and that vaccine escape is likely to be gradual rather than sudden.

    We have done this a million times before, but there's no good theoretical reason for the virus to become less pathogenic over time, nor much in the way of observation. Smallpox and rabies are still not the equivalent of a rather nasty cold.
This discussion has been closed.