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Mayoral Mispricings – A new gambling maxim? – politicalbetting.com
Mayoral Mispricings – A new gambling maxim? – politicalbetting.com
What is it with Mayoral Elections? My favourite bet of 2021 was laying Brian Rose for Mayor of London at single figure odds, despite his literal 0-1% chance of victory. Now 2022 looms and another inexplicable mispricing has appeared on the Mayoral ballots in May. Is this a trend?
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Like a new variant in an undervaxxed country.
Earlier today we had a thread header about a market with the low triple digits traded. Now a thread header with a market with £1254 in total traded and looking at the chart all of that trading happened in just a very few bets with a heavy wodge placed on the Yorkshire Party just over a week ago when its line begins.
Its almost as if betting on the market is a very cheap way to generate a story and publicity. Probably had less spent on that than much other forms of marketing would cost - and it doesn't fall under campaign spending if you're just placing a bet.
PS there may be mispricing but there seems to be bugger all in the form of liquidity available.
I live in North of Tyne Mayoral region. Despite being firmly south of the river. What was wrong with Northumberland?
It is the historic county boundary after all.
It is has become a pretty standard measure that most countries have employed to a greater or less extent over the past 2 years. Ultimately, excluding NZ, isn't really about trying to totally stop the importation, rather to try and slow it / minimize the initial density of those cases, to try and buy some extra time.
To be fair, it is probably an improvement on the "People's Republic of South Yorkshire" (c) D Blunkett
Just for the lolz, they should call it the "North Midlands"
@GrahamMedley
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2h
It has outcompetes Delta, or at least grown exponentially in a popn which has quite high Delta-acquired immunity. That’s not the same same as more transmissible and/or more pathogenic. It’s sounding like a tiger, but might, just might, be a pussy cat
Chief Medical Officer urges calm in face of warnings around omicron mutation, saying concern should focus on ‘immediate threats’"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/11/26/new-covid-variant-less-worrying-delta-says-prof-chris-whitty/
I'm not sure they are quite grumpy enough in the Peak District to be accepted as part of Yorkshire.
Such a thing is now unthinkable in our city obsessed times.
And says SA President @CyrilRamaphosa “rightly” feels “very let down” over vaccine promises
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1464296500197052417?s=20
FAKE NEWS, of course not properly challenged......and it will now become fact within a day or two.
South Africa has asked Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Pfizer (PFE.N) to delay delivery of COVID-19 vaccines because it now has too much stock, health ministry officials said, as vaccine hesitancy slows an inoculation campaign.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/
And of course they binned off all the AZN because of piss poor research and government knee jerk reaction.
But old Gordo, its the G20 fault.
Local government is a disastrous hotch-potch mess in this country.
Who is responsible for any particular issue? Christ knows.
Suits the powers that be in Whitehall to keep it that way.
A fantasy world where he is some superman bringing salvation.
Crikey!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10247609/Health-chiefs-call-calm-heads-warn-AGAINST-lockdown-Christmas.html
If he bans European ski holidays and trips to Dubai, going to be hell to pay.
Married far-right firebrand Éric Zemmour gets chief aide pregnant
Éric Zemmour, the hard-right pundit who has broken into the French presidential race, was facing scandal yesterday with a report that his campaign director, who is 35 years his junior, is expecting his child.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/married-far-right-firebrand-eric-zemmour-gets-chief-aide-pregnant-0b75v6mjr
We still have people on this site even who buy into his twisted worldview over a decade on.
Inexcusable recklessness.
An awful lot of the biggest “Big Mouths” on PB suffer from this affliction: they think that every little pathetic detail of political nerdhood is of vital importance to swing voters in key marginal seats.
But the tragic truth is that voters in places like East Dunbartonshire, Fermanagh & South Tyrone, Bury North and Ynys Môn don’t care about political saplings. At best, some of them cast a glance at the whole forest once every few years, and make a snap judgement. A significant chunk, probably a majority, don’t even show that desultory level of interest in politics - they maybe make political judgments just once or twice in their entire lifetime. Often the result of these judgements is abstention.
Now, let’s dig into some juicy sub-samples…
Had I a Smarkets account I'd follow it. Newish exchange? Heard of it before but not much.
Cold and wet here in SW London (3C)
I can see why Douglas Ross is standing down. Moray has been effectively abolished and the dismembered chunks allocated to 3 neighbouring constituencies. This kind of thing is inevitable when the English Conservative Party makes sure that Jack is alright: the Jock Branch is left to hang.
The SLDs are also filling their breeks.
(On a trivial but personal note, pleased to see Ardnamurchan re-allocated to Argyll.)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/25/national-geographic-green-eyed-afghan-girl-evacuated-italy-sharbat-gulla
This winter is when it might dawn on people, that the UK is a long away ahead of the vast majority of the world, when it comes to managing the pandemic. There’s going to be a lot of restrictions still in place elsewhere.
anna holligan 🎙
@annaholligan
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8m
Of the 600 passengers on flights from SA that landed in NL yesterday, 61 have tested positive for COVID19. It is not yet known whether they’re infected with new Omicron variant
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/11/26/michael-vaughan-does-not-deserve-see-reputation-trashed-bbc/
”I remember him saying he needed to know about all religions because it would make him a better leader of men - it typified how his leadership skills and thinking were ahead of his time. On another occasion, I recall him saying “It gets boring if we are all the same", and that different cultures would make for a stronger dressing room.”
…
“It feels like the BBC and BT have taken the easy option by blocking him from broadcasting this winter. The BBC say they do not want him commenting on a story in which he features, but that should not stop him analysing the Ashes.
“Cricket has serious issues to confront in terms of endemic racism, many of which have been highlighted by Rafiq's evidence provided to the Culture, Media and Sport Committee.
“But to blacklist one of the best England captains we have produced on the basis of historic and still unproven allegations feels wrong, and a distortion of natural justice.”
Reading lots of reports of bad weather in the UK this morning, hope PBers are all okay.
Sir John [Bell, Regius Chair Medicine Oxford], added he had been told by a senior S African clinician that there was - as yet - no sign of intensive care units filling up. "There are not a lot of people dying in intensive care units from this virus at the moment, which is a really important observation", he said...
https://twitter.com/paulnuki/status/1464383584974823425?s=21
And yet extraordinarily, there is a single child in that younger age group currently off with Covid. Meanwhile the whole lot of them have an annoying and lingering “cough and cold”.
3-5 days for symptoms to appear
+10 days for illness to reach hospitalisation levels
+another 10 days before death (if you get to that point)
My current point is we are between point 1 and point 2 with a lot of people infected. Hopefully this is mutated into a minor illness but we won’t know reality for a week or more.
And I hope it is mild but we need to wait and see.
The trouble is that the NHS is under a lot of strain even as things are now, and even if Omicron caused no more severe illness than Delta for anyone, it still seems to have a large advantage in transmissibility, for whatever reasons.
As always, however much vaccines help, if the number of infections rises, the numbers of both vaccinated and unvaccinated in hospital will go up in proportion to infections. The problem is the same one we've always had - even if only a small percentage of people are at risk of death, the number of infections has to be controlled or the NHS won't be able to cope.
Omicron? Don't you mean Xi?
UK has more than a quarter of the population with booster doses already, only Israel and the UAE are close to that number. US is at 10%.
Of the the following odds-on bets I currently like, which is the stand-out given current prices? Time to settlement needs to be factored in. Odds are BF or Smarkets.
Raducanu for SPOTY 1.12
CP By-Election double 1.20
Democrats Popular Vote Winner 1.25
LP South Yorkshire 1.38 (Quincel's tip)
2022 GOP Senate Control 1.41
CP Most Seats at next GE 1.57
To me this strongly indicates community transmission in Belgium. I don't see how reconcile an actual 11-day incubation time with the claims of rapid spread in South Africa.
https://twitter.com/ct_bergstrom/status/1464377201369882627?s=21
After a small amount of investigation it turns out he's an avid Trump supporter. Why would someone who wasn't a racist misogynist climate change denying Brexiteer be a Trump fan? It's not because he's lowering the tax threshold in Yorkshire.....
The big question is why did the BBC emlploy such a person in the first place
When prices are offered at a range of places I mention it, but often the exchanges have better prices then too so get namechecked more.
SportingIndex currently has 2 politics markets, Smarkets has 124. I want to cover a new bet each week, it's inevitably going to spend more time on the site with the range.
The ideal solution is for PredictIt to allow UK punters, since it is liquid and the prices often insane. But alas...
He also noted that the refugee crisis is mostly a burden for people a long way away from us, and that solutions lie in better governance and better diplomacy in the states from which they originate.
Mr. Quincel, I did check Betfair for said market and it wasn't up.
One of the reasons I opted for Ladbrokes for most of my F1 betting was that it had more betting options than some other sites.
Fingers crossed this can be quickly determined by the relevant scientists. Everyone needs to keep calm and carry on.
With an endemic disease, there are always going to be the occasional scare about something new. When it happens, we need to stop travel as much as possible from the affected area, to allow time for analysis of the strain, then we can likely go back to normal pretty quickly.
Nor does it have anything to do with his ability as a cricket commentator. That should be judged on his ability to give effective commentary not because of political thought police
Just checked again and it is there, though I see price has dropped to 1.1. (I got in at 1.38 earlier.)
Very thin market. Book percentage on the Back side is poor. On the Lay side not too bad (95.92%).
Market best avoided now until liquidity comes back in.
It's worth recalling that people are innocent until proven guilty. This isn't Cardassia Prime.
“Young people, in their 20s to just over their late 30s, are coming in with moderate to severe disease, some needing intensive care. About 65% are not vaccinated and most of the rest are only half-vaccinated.”
i.e. her critical care facility is filling up primarily with the unvaccinated, just like ours have been for months.
An early indication here of a mixed bag. It's possible, given that we've previously been getting reports of rapid spread, that Omicron is more transmissible than Delta, but not necessarily much better at defeating the immunity conferred by vaccines. This would be consistent with two previously advanced theories: that Covid-19 will evolve to become more transmissible but less pathogenic over time, and that vaccine escape is likely to be gradual rather than sudden.