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Why Boris Johnson and the Tories may soon experience a surge in the polls – politicalbetting.com

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    The last person to beat Johnson in an election became an accountant, so there's that.

    Michael Gove has become an accountant?

    Incidentally, apropos of nothing, the best typo I ever read was in a book on Victorian morality, where the 1861 Sexual Offences Act prohibited sex acts between 'consulting male auditors.'

    Goodness only knows how both autocorrect came up with it and the proof reader missed it.

    Only time I was thrown out of the Hugh Owen Library at Aber, because I was laughing so much somebody complained.
    I'll come round tonight and give your books a right good going over...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    The last person to beat Johnson in an election became an accountant, so there's that.

    Michael Gove has become an accountant?

    Incidentally, apropos of nothing, the best typo I ever read was in a book on Victorian morality, where the 1861 Sexual Offences Act prohibited sex acts between 'consulting male auditors.'

    Goodness only knows how both autocorrect came up with it and the proof reader missed it.

    Only time I was thrown out of the Hugh Owen Library at Aber, because I was laughing so much somebody complained.
    Neil Sherlock, President of the Oxford Union.
    Gove doesn't count.

    Auditors in sexual congress is definitely a matter for preventive legislation.
  • Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    Why do you think St Patrick's Day is so popular in the USA, regardless of personal Hiberianism or lack thereof?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Pulpstar said:

    Geoghegt said:

    I know the UK calculates its Covid death rate on those who die 28 days after a Covid diagnosis. Is the any statistics showing what the normal death rate would be. If the were circa 40K positive tests each day over 28 days that's aprox a population of 1.12 million people - just think this would put the statistics in a better context.

    Between 17th September and 17th October there were 1,100,245 infections. If all these infections were as deadly as drinking a cup of tea you'd expect ~ 700 deaths between 17th October and 17th November mentioning 'within 28 days of the diagnosis' (Correcting properly for age it would be lower).

    There were around 4,500.
    Worth noting that a fair few expire more than 28 days post covid test, after weeks of ventilation etc. There is miscounting in both directions, hence the death certificate data at the ONS and Excess death figures also should be considered. Currently we are running about 1600 excess deaths per week.
  • RobD said:

    I don’t understand the train meme, when images of trains are posted next to covid stats. (Today’s numbers look decent by the way)

    TOPS numbering of the engines. So a class 40 engine, might be number 40 004. Numbers of cases have been great for this. Ideally we don’t want deltics and we do want shutters, except the shunters wouldn’t work (08 class).
    We certainly don't want any of those intercity 125s.
    The engines for those are Class 43s! (eg. 43001)
    Power cars. Not locomotives.
    The class is officially the fastest diesel locomotive in the world, with an absolute maximum speed of 148 mph (238 km/h), and a regular service speed of 125 mph (201 km/h). The record run was led by 43102 (43302) and trailed by 43159.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Rail_Class_43_(HST)
    Whoever wrote that needs to be sent to the salt mines for re-education.

    I suppose you think that just because they want to self-identify as locomotives then that is fine.
    They are self-propelled and can travel by themselves, so yes.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-S_rY7QO0hg
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    If like me you are doing Dry January there is certainly something to look forward to at the end of the month.
  • Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    Burns Night works for us.
  • dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    The last person to beat Johnson in an election became an accountant, so there's that.

    Michael Gove has become an accountant?

    Incidentally, apropos of nothing, the best typo I ever read was in a book on Victorian morality, where the 1861 Sexual Offences Act prohibited sex acts between 'consulting male auditors.'

    Goodness only knows how both autocorrect came up with it and the proof reader missed it.

    Only time I was thrown out of the Hugh Owen Library at Aber, because I was laughing so much somebody complained.
    I'll come round tonight and give your books a right good going over...
    Are you referring to dodgy financial records OR even dodgier stash of Celtic erotica?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273
    edited November 2021
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.

    Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.

    For which we already have Shrove Tuesday
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Geoghegt said:

    I know the UK calculates its Covid death rate on those who die 28 days after a Covid diagnosis. Is the any statistics showing what the normal death rate would be. If the were circa 40K positive tests each day over 28 days that's aprox a population of 1.12 million people - just think this would put the statistics in a better context.

    Between 17th September and 17th October there were 1,100,245 infections. If all these infections were as deadly as drinking a cup of tea you'd expect ~ 700 deaths between 17th October and 17th November mentioning 'within 28 days of the diagnosis' (Correcting properly for age it would be lower).

    There were around 4,500.
    Worth noting that a fair few expire more than 28 days post covid test, after weeks of ventilation etc. There is miscounting in both directions, hence the death certificate data at the ONS and Excess death figures also should be considered. Currently we are running about 1600 excess deaths per week.
    Although am I correct in thinking that references on death certificates aren’t necessarily an indication of a cause of death (or at least primary cause of death) and excess death figures are increasingly affected by people dying due to the effects of all the delayed treatments/undiagnosed conditions built up over the last 18 months? So will become increasingly unreliable as an indicator of current Covid impacts?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080

    I have booked accommodation to visit my daughter in Bath in mid-December. I am still confident that I will be able to take this trip without any significant restrictions on what I can do while I am there (if any) excepting those following from my wife's caution.

    Hopefully it will be dry and we can go to the rooftop open-air hot springs.

    I have more doubts on the weather than on Covid.

    Genuine question - does it matter if it’s raining if you are going in the hot water?
    Hoping you enjoy the trip. Sadly the Christmas market is not running this year which is a huge shame, as it’s always a highlight for us in the lead up to Christmas.
    You're right, it probably doesn't matter.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Hence the importance of having a Burns Supper. It adds a high point to a grim month.
  • So Humza Yousaf had a grievance with a nursery and instead of taking it up with them went to the papers. Now he has a grievance with the Indian community who he accuses of going public instead of taking it up with him. They prove they tried to speak to him and he did not respond.

    https://twitter.com/franknewall/status/1462511982888816654?s=20
  • Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    Catholics are bloody good at human-sized rituals that make sense of the year. But Carnival is a bit late; by the start of Lent, it really is very late winter. It may be cold and grim, but the days are noticeably longer and there's hope in the air. End of January, even when it's not been January 2021, is rubbish.

    (Relatedly, I was wandering round my garden this afternoon and neither my geraniums nor my honeysuckle had given up on the flowering thing. That's not right, is it?)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    Catholics are bloody good at human-sized rituals that make sense of the year. But Carnival is a bit late; by the start of Lent, it really is very late winter. It may be cold and grim, but the days are noticeably longer and there's hope in the air. End of January, even when it's not been January 2021, is rubbish.

    (Relatedly, I was wandering round my garden this afternoon and neither my geraniums nor my honeysuckle had given up on the flowering thing. That's not right, is it?)
    My nasturtiums are still alive. And I'm still getting raspberries off my raspberry canes. Which is daft.

    I've brought the geraniums in but one frost apart I probably didn't need to.
  • Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    Catholics are bloody good at human-sized rituals that make sense of the year. But Carnival is a bit late; by the start of Lent, it really is very late winter. It may be cold and grim, but the days are noticeably longer and there's hope in the air. End of January, even when it's not been January 2021, is rubbish.

    (Relatedly, I was wandering round my garden this afternoon and neither my geraniums nor my honeysuckle had given up on the flowering thing. That's not right, is it?)
    Lent comes from the same root as lengthen. So it already commemorates the fact the days are getting longer. In fact it was the Anglo-Saxon word for Spring.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,317
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    One sad milestone this week. The last of our Spanish/Portuguese nurses is leaving. We recruited about 10 in 2015. Most went back, or to France/Germany pre pandemic, but being redeployed to ICU was the final straw for the last one. She goes in a fortnight albeit with British dual nationality, but I don't think she will return.

    A lot of staff have had enough and are talking of going too, even Mrs Foxy and I are increasingly talking about it.

    Please don't go Foxy, the NHS is barely surviving as it is.
    Not planning to yet, but doing anything at the moment is like wading in treacle, hard work to make minimal progress. No beds, staff shortages, morale in the dumps, patients with loads of neglected conditions over the last 18 months. It really is no longer much of a pleasure, and generally I love my job and have great colleagues and juniors.

    One thing too is that while I haven't really been locked down is that my habits have changed. I went to my first meal out last week in over 6 months. It was nice, but used to be nearly a weekly event. I have re-learnt to enjoy simple pleasures such as reading, music, gardening, cooking, walking my dog across the fields, visiting the Isle of Wight family etc. In short, the cost of my leisure activities has reduced quite noticeably, and the simple life appeals more each day.
    Anecdotally am hearing much of this. Taking fewer hours, or changing jobs for less pay and less hassle. My brother just quit yesterday for less pay but better hours. They realised they simply don't need the money that much anymore. If they ever did.
    Yes and it is not just a British phenomenon. The Atlantic broke it down in several ways: the Great Resignation, the Great Rudeness, the Great Reset and the Great Reshuffling.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/10/great-resignation-accelerating/620382/

    I don't think that I will quit medicine, but I may well "retire and return" on pension plus 50% part time, perhaps in another part of the country, or just doing locums when I fancy. Mrs Foxy would quite like to move to Wilts/Dorset area, where she has family.
    Well I hope whatever you choose works out.

    Speaking personally (and in the negative) I think a big factor in being able to feel good post career is that you can look back and say, "Yep, I did something of real value and I did it to the best of my ability".

    This might not work for a Sinatra song but I do think it's the case.
    Weren't you.... an accountant?

    Forgive me if I got that wrong
    An honest accountant is a pearl beyond price. Not to mention a competent one when one has a tax problem.
    I gather, done right, it's a very taxing profession.
    The upper reaches of the profession are completely bent in my view. Entirely within the law of course,

    Actually thinking about it all accountants are on the make.

    Good and honest accountants are not that rare (though I'd agree about the upper reaches of the profession).
    Competent solicitors are much harder to find in my experience.
    What a waste of a life. Being an accountant

    You get one go on this earth. And you spend it totting up numbers to save people some tax? In an office? That's it?

    There are some jobs I find contemptible, others I find pitiful. Accountant seems to tick both boxes. A rarity
    90%+ of jobs are pointless. I remember a vote leave activist who worked in some sort of finance office boasting that he was able to do good in the world by speeding up certain mortgage applications.

    At least if you are an accountant you can be some practical use to people. I haven't been able to find a good accountant, I end up employing idiots; I have to check every single thing that they tell me on google and half the time they are telling me the wrong thing.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    alex_ said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Geoghegt said:

    I know the UK calculates its Covid death rate on those who die 28 days after a Covid diagnosis. Is the any statistics showing what the normal death rate would be. If the were circa 40K positive tests each day over 28 days that's aprox a population of 1.12 million people - just think this would put the statistics in a better context.

    Between 17th September and 17th October there were 1,100,245 infections. If all these infections were as deadly as drinking a cup of tea you'd expect ~ 700 deaths between 17th October and 17th November mentioning 'within 28 days of the diagnosis' (Correcting properly for age it would be lower).

    There were around 4,500.
    Worth noting that a fair few expire more than 28 days post covid test, after weeks of ventilation etc. There is miscounting in both directions, hence the death certificate data at the ONS and Excess death figures also should be considered. Currently we are running about 1600 excess deaths per week.
    Although am I correct in thinking that references on death certificates aren’t necessarily an indication of a cause of death (or at least primary cause of death) and excess death figures are increasingly affected by people dying due to the effects of all the delayed treatments/undiagnosed conditions built up over the last 18 months? So will become increasingly unreliable as an indicator of current Covid impacts?
    Death certificates do record the causes as well as contributing factors.

    Excess figures do rise and fall with case numbers, hospitalisations and 28 day deaths, even going negative at some points. If it were due to neglected other conditions then there would be a different pattern.

    It may well be that there is no real alternative to these deaths, but denying that they relate to covid just isn't plausible.
  • Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    Catholics are bloody good at human-sized rituals that make sense of the year. But Carnival is a bit late; by the start of Lent, it really is very late winter. It may be cold and grim, but the days are noticeably longer and there's hope in the air. End of January, even when it's not been January 2021, is rubbish.

    (Relatedly, I was wandering round my garden this afternoon and neither my geraniums nor my honeysuckle had given up on the flowering thing. That's not right, is it?)
    Lent comes from the same root as lengthen. So it already commemorates the fact the days are getting longer. In fact it was the Anglo-Saxon word for Spring.
    To an extent, that's true of Christmas as well- hence all the light coming into the world imagery. Days start to lengthen, however imperceptibly, from around December 21.

    Maybe what we need is to go back to the idea of Christmas starting, not ending on December 25. And let it roll on to Candlemas, February 2.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    edited November 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ratters said:

    These vastly different council tax rates surely makes the case for a single annual property rate (or banded rates) applied nationally, rather than based on local council's net financing requirements.

    Which would make it considerably more difficult for working-class people to live in more expensive areas of the country.
    The current problem, though, is that poorer areas have more service demands than richer areas. They therefore have higher council tax charges, which encourage the flight of the more talented. (Why stay and pay more Council Tax when you can move to a richer part of the country and pay less? Only those whose Council Tax is subsidised by Central Government stay in high tax areas.)
    Any actual evidence to support that?

    Are people leaving Lewes or Rutland (Band D £2,189 and £2,194 respectively) to go and live in Westminster or Wandsworth (Band D £829 and £845)?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    One sad milestone this week. The last of our Spanish/Portuguese nurses is leaving. We recruited about 10 in 2015. Most went back, or to France/Germany pre pandemic, but being redeployed to ICU was the final straw for the last one. She goes in a fortnight albeit with British dual nationality, but I don't think she will return.

    A lot of staff have had enough and are talking of going too, even Mrs Foxy and I are increasingly talking about it.

    Please don't go Foxy, the NHS is barely surviving as it is.
    Not planning to yet, but doing anything at the moment is like wading in treacle, hard work to make minimal progress. No beds, staff shortages, morale in the dumps, patients with loads of neglected conditions over the last 18 months. It really is no longer much of a pleasure, and generally I love my job and have great colleagues and juniors.

    One thing too is that while I haven't really been locked down is that my habits have changed. I went to my first meal out last week in over 6 months. It was nice, but used to be nearly a weekly event. I have re-learnt to enjoy simple pleasures such as reading, music, gardening, cooking, walking my dog across the fields, visiting the Isle of Wight family etc. In short, the cost of my leisure activities has reduced quite noticeably, and the simple life appeals more each day.
    Anecdotally am hearing much of this. Taking fewer hours, or changing jobs for less pay and less hassle. My brother just quit yesterday for less pay but better hours. They realised they simply don't need the money that much anymore. If they ever did.
    Yes and it is not just a British phenomenon. The Atlantic broke it down in several ways: the Great Resignation, the Great Rudeness, the Great Reset and the Great Reshuffling.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/10/great-resignation-accelerating/620382/

    I don't think that I will quit medicine, but I may well "retire and return" on pension plus 50% part time, perhaps in another part of the country, or just doing locums when I fancy. Mrs Foxy would quite like to move to Wilts/Dorset area, where she has family.
    Well I hope whatever you choose works out.

    Speaking personally (and in the negative) I think a big factor in being able to feel good post career is that you can look back and say, "Yep, I did something of real value and I did it to the best of my ability".

    This might not work for a Sinatra song but I do think it's the case.
    Weren't you.... an accountant?

    Forgive me if I got that wrong
    An honest accountant is a pearl beyond price. Not to mention a competent one when one has a tax problem.
    I gather, done right, it's a very taxing profession.
    The upper reaches of the profession are completely bent in my view. Entirely within the law of course,

    Actually thinking about it all accountants are on the make.

    Good and honest accountants are not that rare (though I'd agree about the upper reaches of the profession).
    Competent solicitors are much harder to find in my experience.
    What a waste of a life. Being an accountant

    You get one go on this earth. And you spend it totting up numbers to save people some tax? In an office? That's it?

    There are some jobs I find contemptible, others I find pitiful. Accountant seems to tick both boxes. A rarity
    90%+ of jobs are pointless. I remember a vote leave activist who worked in some sort of finance office boasting that he was able to do good in the world by speeding up certain mortgage applications.

    At least if you are an accountant you can be some practical use to people. I haven't been able to find a good accountant, I end up employing idiots; I have to check every single thing that they tell me on google and half the time they are telling me the wrong thing.
    But what do you do?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.

    Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.

    For which we already have Shrove Tuesday
    They get Carnival, we get... pancakes.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    Catholics are bloody good at human-sized rituals that make sense of the year. But Carnival is a bit late; by the start of Lent, it really is very late winter. It may be cold and grim, but the days are noticeably longer and there's hope in the air. End of January, even when it's not been January 2021, is rubbish.

    (Relatedly, I was wandering round my garden this afternoon and neither my geraniums nor my honeysuckle had given up on the flowering thing. That's not right, is it?)
    My nasturtiums are still alive. And I'm still getting raspberries off my raspberry canes. Which is daft.

    I've brought the geraniums in but one frost apart I probably didn't need to.
    Possibly relatedly, this has been the most Autumnal Autumn I can remember. Every weekend since late September I've thought, this is it, it can't get any more glorious and golden than this - and then the next weekend has been better. Possibly due to no particularly high winds, so the leaves have stayed on the trees for much longer. We have had golden morning and golden afternoon after golden morning and golden afternoon, and the beauty of it all has made me want to weep with joy.
    Arnside Knott, today, for sunset. One of the best sunsets I have seen in my life: the shallow waters and wet sands of Morecambe Bay like a polished bronze mirror. The woods around the top of the hill aflame with November russets and browns. The wide estuary of the Kent with the silhouettes of the Lakeland Fells behind. And then, dusk,then darkness, and an almost-full moon rising in the east, improbably large, impossibly bright.
    The pie I had in the pub was a bit disappointing mind. One of those pies which is really just a stew with a puff pastry lid. Good sticky toffee pudding though to round it off.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    Bringing forward BST to the first Sunday in March would help. Never been clear why we have to drag GMT out until the final weekend of that month.
    The problem there is the shape of the Earth’s orbit, amongst other things: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equation_of_time
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    edited November 2021

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.

    Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.

    For which we already have Shrove Tuesday
    They get Carnival, we get... pancakes.
    Which I'm sure we all agree is much better. Works for me.

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    Bringing forward BST to the first Sunday in March would help. Never been clear why we have to drag GMT out until the final weekend of that month.
    The problem there is the shape of the Earth’s orbit, amongst other things: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equation_of_time
    I haven't a clue what the article is talking about - perhaps you could rewrite it even more basically to help out the dummies.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-59360575

    Be interesting to see how eg. statutory gender balance in Parliament and caps on second/holiday homes is actually implemented in practice. Also how "homelessness" is being defined to allow it to be "ended" (link talks about a responsibility regardless of "priority need", but at the moment people are assessed as having priority need which gives local authorities a responsibility to house them - but officially, whilst they remain in temporary accommodation they are still officially homeless).
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    Catholics are bloody good at human-sized rituals that make sense of the year. But Carnival is a bit late; by the start of Lent, it really is very late winter. It may be cold and grim, but the days are noticeably longer and there's hope in the air. End of January, even when it's not been January 2021, is rubbish.

    (Relatedly, I was wandering round my garden this afternoon and neither my geraniums nor my honeysuckle had given up on the flowering thing. That's not right, is it?)
    There are a few famous British victories in mid-to-late January that could be celebrated - Cape St Vincent on the 16th or Rorke's Drift on the 22nd (or Isandlwana if you want to mark a British defeat).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    alex_ said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-59360575

    Be interesting to see how eg. statutory gender balance in Parliament and caps on second/holiday homes is actually implemented in practice. Also how "homelessness" is being defined to allow it to be "ended" (link talks about a responsibility regardless of "priority need", but at the moment people are assessed as having priority need which gives local authorities a responsibility to house them - but officially, whilst they remain in temporary accommodation they are still officially homeless).

    A state owned construction and energy company? Brave…

  • Eric Topol
    @EricTopol
    ·
    2h
    How to generate a new surge?
    Have 40% of Americans not fully vaccinated, and another 40% vaccinated but waned (past 6 months).
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    RobD said:

    alex_ said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-59360575

    Be interesting to see how eg. statutory gender balance in Parliament and caps on second/holiday homes is actually implemented in practice. Also how "homelessness" is being defined to allow it to be "ended" (link talks about a responsibility regardless of "priority need", but at the moment people are assessed as having priority need which gives local authorities a responsibility to house them - but officially, whilst they remain in temporary accommodation they are still officially homeless).

    A state owned construction and energy company? Brave…
    Do the two things obviously go together?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    In shock news...

    "Northern Ireland to Scotland bridge plans scrapped"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59368707
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    Catholics are bloody good at human-sized rituals that make sense of the year. But Carnival is a bit late; by the start of Lent, it really is very late winter. It may be cold and grim, but the days are noticeably longer and there's hope in the air. End of January, even when it's not been January 2021, is rubbish.

    (Relatedly, I was wandering round my garden this afternoon and neither my geraniums nor my honeysuckle had given up on the flowering thing. That's not right, is it?)
    My nasturtiums are still alive. And I'm still getting raspberries off my raspberry canes. Which is daft.

    I've brought the geraniums in but one frost apart I probably didn't need to.
    Possibly relatedly, this has been the most Autumnal Autumn I can remember. Every weekend since late September I've thought, this is it, it can't get any more glorious and golden than this - and then the next weekend has been better. Possibly due to no particularly high winds, so the leaves have stayed on the trees for much longer. We have had golden morning and golden afternoon after golden morning and golden afternoon, and the beauty of it all has made me want to weep with joy.
    Arnside Knott, today, for sunset. One of the best sunsets I have seen in my life: the shallow waters and wet sands of Morecambe Bay like a polished bronze mirror. The woods around the top of the hill aflame with November russets and browns. The wide estuary of the Kent with the silhouettes of the Lakeland Fells behind. And then, dusk,then darkness, and an almost-full moon rising in the east, improbably large, impossibly bright.
    The pie I had in the pub was a bit disappointing mind. One of those pies which is really just a stew with a puff pastry lid. Good sticky toffee pudding though to round it off.
    It's not been a classic golden autumn down here in the south west - many leaves seemed to drop before reaching their best colour.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.

    Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.

    For which we already have Shrove Tuesday
    They get Carnival, we get... pancakes.
    I don't see why we'd have to become Catholic to make a rather bigger thing of pancake day.
    Don't get me wrong: pancakes are a fine thing. But it's hardly four days of debauchery without sleeping in your own bed a la Binche.
    I
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I don’t understand the train meme, when images of trains are posted next to covid stats. (Today’s numbers look decent by the way)

    Isn’t it engine or train type numbers?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.

    Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.

    For which we already have Shrove Tuesday
    They get Carnival, we get... pancakes.
    I don't see why we'd have to become Catholic to make a rather bigger thing of pancake day.
    Don't get me wrong: pancakes are a fine thing. But it's hardly four days of debauchery without sleeping in your own bed a la Binche.
    I
    You were about to say ..?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,925
    alex_ said:

    RobD said:

    alex_ said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-59360575

    Be interesting to see how eg. statutory gender balance in Parliament and caps on second/holiday homes is actually implemented in practice. Also how "homelessness" is being defined to allow it to be "ended" (link talks about a responsibility regardless of "priority need", but at the moment people are assessed as having priority need which gives local authorities a responsibility to house them - but officially, whilst they remain in temporary accommodation they are still officially homeless).

    A state owned construction and energy company? Brave…
    Do the two things obviously go together?
    Only for insurance jobs.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    pigeon said:

    alex_ said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Official figures show the UK has recorded 61 COVID-19 related deaths and 40,004 positive cases of the virus in the latest 24-hour period

    For more on this and other news visit http://news.sky.com

    40,004 (+9.4%) 61 deaths (-5.9%) admissions 881 (-4.7%)
    Never worth looking at sunday's, the numbers are always down. Compare the 7 day average and do not try to kid yourself and other people. Bit like using subsamples.
    The numbers have shown the falls for sometime now, apart from infections, and there is no evidence admissions or sadly deaths are rising

    Indeed my daughter and her family have had positive tests this last week but they are working from home whilst isolating

    The does seem to be quite a few locally contacting covid but the vaccine and boosters are working and keeping them out of hospital
    Unfortunately the vaccine and boosters are not working for those who refused to have them, the same people who are responsible for reducing the NHS to its knees going into the winter months.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/21/icu-is-full-of-the-unvaccinated-my-patience-with-them-is-wearing-thin

    My patience with them is wearing thin too. It's time to make the life of the unvaccinated difficult, rather than watch the NHS disintegrate and in response impose further restrictions on the substantial majority who have done the right thing.
    I agree. Vaccine passports for pubs and sporting events have always seemed to me to be a sensible way of incentivising the stupid. The obvious Darwinian benefit is just too slow and the consequences for others too severe to let this go on.
    Vaccine passports for pubs doesn’t just make life difficult for the unvaccinated. It makes life very difficult for the pubs expected to enforce them as well.
    Hopefully we'll be able to keep on doing without vaccine passports in England, but I question how much difference they would make even if we tried using them. AIUI they've had them in Germany all along and a fat lot of good it has done.

    That kind of measure is only going to get anti-vaxxers out of circulation and/or compel them to stop digging their heels in if it is made a condition of going to work. The large bulk of anti-vaxxers aren't pensioners: strip them of their income and they'll soon be forced to give in.
    Why though? The NHS isn’t about to keel over. The risk they are taking is with their own health. Why discriminate against fellow citizens to force them to take a medical intervention against their will?
    Did you not see the discussion earlier today about the state of the NHS? With Foxy et al.
    I did. Leicester isn’t that representative.

    But many of the problems - exhaustion, low morale, a long backlog (although they are working through it very fast) won’t be solved by a small reduction in the number of cases.

    Unfortunately we just need to get through the winter and then give people a long break.

    But compulsory medical treatments have a very high bar. And compulsory vaccination action is currently illegal so would need primary legislation
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,284
    edited November 2021
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.

    Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.

    For which we already have Shrove Tuesday
    They get Carnival, we get... pancakes.
    Which I'm sure we all agree is much better. Works for me.

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    Bringing forward BST to the first Sunday in March would help. Never been clear why we have to drag GMT out until the final weekend of that month.
    The problem there is the shape of the Earth’s orbit, amongst other things: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equation_of_time
    I haven't a clue what the article is talking about - perhaps you could rewrite it even more basically to help out the dummies.
    The Earth’s orbit is not quite a circle but an ellipse. It is closest to the sun in January and moving fastest at the same time. This means that the time between successive noons (I.e. the time when the sun is due south if you are in the northern hemisphere) is slightly longer than average. In our summer it is the other way round (although it is actually more complicated than that and I’ve missed out the effect of the Earth’s axial tilt).

    TL;DR version: a traditional day (noon to noon) is only 24 hours on average over a year (hence the “Mean” in GMT).

    Edit: ellipse, not eclipse!
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.

    Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.

    For which we already have Shrove Tuesday
    They get Carnival, we get... pancakes.
    Which I'm sure we all agree is much better. Works for me.

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    Bringing forward BST to the first Sunday in March would help. Never been clear why we have to drag GMT out until the final weekend of that month.
    The problem there is the shape of the Earth’s orbit, amongst other things: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equation_of_time
    I haven't a clue what the article is talking about - perhaps you could rewrite it even more basically to help out the dummies.
    The Earth’s orbit is not quite a circle but an eclipse. It is closest to the sun in January and moving fastest at the same time. This means that the time between successive noons (I.e. the time when the sun is due south if you are in the northern hemisphere) is slightly longer than average. In our summer it is the other way round (although it is actually more complicated than that and I’ve missed out the effect of the Earth’s axial tilt).

    TL;DR version: a traditional day (noon to noon) is only 24 hours on average over a year (hence the “Mean” in GMT).
    Is that a clipped ellipse?

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    Catholics are bloody good at human-sized rituals that make sense of the year. But Carnival is a bit late; by the start of Lent, it really is very late winter. It may be cold and grim, but the days are noticeably longer and there's hope in the air. End of January, even when it's not been January 2021, is rubbish.

    (Relatedly, I was wandering round my garden this afternoon and neither my geraniums nor my honeysuckle had given up on the flowering thing. That's not right, is it?)
    My nasturtiums are still alive. And I'm still getting raspberries off my raspberry canes. Which is daft.

    I've brought the geraniums in but one frost apart I probably didn't need to.
    Possibly relatedly, this has been the most Autumnal Autumn I can remember. Every weekend since late September I've thought, this is it, it can't get any more glorious and golden than this - and then the next weekend has been better. Possibly due to no particularly high winds, so the leaves have stayed on the trees for much longer. We have had golden morning and golden afternoon after golden morning and golden afternoon, and the beauty of it all has made me want to weep with joy.
    Arnside Knott, today, for sunset. One of the best sunsets I have seen in my life: the shallow waters and wet sands of Morecambe Bay like a polished bronze mirror. The woods around the top of the hill aflame with November russets and browns. The wide estuary of the Kent with the silhouettes of the Lakeland Fells behind. And then, dusk,then darkness, and an almost-full moon rising in the east, improbably large, impossibly bright.
    The pie I had in the pub was a bit disappointing mind. One of those pies which is really just a stew with a puff pastry lid. Good sticky toffee pudding though to round it off.
    I've had some disappointing pub food in Arnside.

    I was about to recommend the Kingfisher but have just seen that it shut down in the summer.
  • I see the social care costs charges are to be rushed by House of Commons tomorrow.

    Presumably as fast as possible before rebellion grows.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    Valentine’s Day is the obvious contender. A festival of love and light in mid February. Heralding the end of winter as Halloween heralds the end of light… and the beginning of evil


    Just multiply it, commercialize it mercilessly, who cares. Have Valentine parties. Orgies. Drugs. Dances. Poems. Job done

  • geoffw said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.

    Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.

    For which we already have Shrove Tuesday
    They get Carnival, we get... pancakes.
    Which I'm sure we all agree is much better. Works for me.

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    Bringing forward BST to the first Sunday in March would help. Never been clear why we have to drag GMT out until the final weekend of that month.
    The problem there is the shape of the Earth’s orbit, amongst other things: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equation_of_time
    I haven't a clue what the article is talking about - perhaps you could rewrite it even more basically to help out the dummies.
    The Earth’s orbit is not quite a circle but an eclipse. It is closest to the sun in January and moving fastest at the same time. This means that the time between successive noons (I.e. the time when the sun is due south if you are in the northern hemisphere) is slightly longer than average. In our summer it is the other way round (although it is actually more complicated than that and I’ve missed out the effect of the Earth’s axial tilt).

    TL;DR version: a traditional day (noon to noon) is only 24 hours on average over a year (hence the “Mean” in GMT).
    Is that a clipped ellipse?

    I’m definitely blaming autocorrect for that one…
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    For those who hate London (and those who don’t).

    Just saw a fantastic exhibition at the British Library - Elizabeth & Mary Queen of Scots.

    Really superb - had an hour there and only got about halfway around. Will even go back (which I rarely do) to see it again.

    Lots of documents I’ve only seen in books before.

    Highly highly recommended. Open til February
  • I see the social care costs charges are to be rushed by House of Commons tomorrow.

    Presumably as fast as possible before rebellion grows.

    Like that worked really well with the NI changes.

    Or the Paterson scandal.

    Or the Brilliant Brexit Deal.

    Surely there is a sufficiency of Conservative MPs who can see how this plays out?
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,284
    edited November 2021
    Leon said:

    Valentine’s Day is the obvious contender. A festival of love and light in mid February. Heralding the end of winter as Halloween heralds the end of light… and the beginning of evil


    Just multiply it, commercialize it mercilessly, who cares. Have Valentine parties. Orgies. Drugs. Dances. Poems. Job done

    Candlemas (aka Groundhog Day) only 12 days earlier is the middle of winter, so I’m not sure Valentine’s Day heralds its end.
  • Charles said:

    For those who hate London (and those who don’t).

    Just saw a fantastic exhibition at the British Library - Elizabeth & Mary Queen of Scots.

    Really superb - had an hour there and only got about halfway around. Will even go back (which I rarely do) to see it again.

    Lots of documents I’ve only seen in books before.

    Highly highly recommended. Open til February

    Genuine question, what's the social distancing etc like in there? I might find time to visit.
  • I see the social care costs charges are to be rushed by House of Commons tomorrow.

    Presumably as fast as possible before rebellion grows.

    Like that worked really well with the NI changes.

    Or the Paterson scandal.

    Or the Brilliant Brexit Deal.

    Surely there is a sufficiency of Conservative MPs who can see how this plays out?
    i guess doing on a monday at very short notice means some wont be able to get down there in time.

    plus less time to plot on whatsapp.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    edited November 2021

    Leon said:

    Valentine’s Day is the obvious contender. A festival of love and light in mid February. Heralding the end of winter as Halloween heralds the end of light… and the beginning of evil


    Just multiply it, commercialize it mercilessly, who cares. Have Valentine parties. Orgies. Drugs. Dances. Poems. Job done

    Candlemas (aka Groundhog Day) only 12 days earlier is the middle of winter, so I’m not sure Valentine’s Day heralds its end.
    It’s not the middle of winter in southern England. By feb 14 you can sense the days lengthening, the chances of a massive freeze are almost over. You may have 2-7 weeks of wintry grind left, it depends, but you are definitely through the worst. January and early feb are the worst. So. Feb 14. That’s when it’s time to celebrate, through gritted wine-stained teeth

    Of course it may be different in Scotland when winter extends cleverly into summer, and often skips summer entirely
  • kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.

    Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.

    For which we already have Shrove Tuesday
    They get Carnival, we get... pancakes.
    Which I'm sure we all agree is much better. Works for me.

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    Bringing forward BST to the first Sunday in March would help. Never been clear why we have to drag GMT out until the final weekend of that month.
    The problem there is the shape of the Earth’s orbit, amongst other things: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equation_of_time
    I haven't a clue what the article is talking about - perhaps you could rewrite it even more basically to help out the dummies.
    The Earth’s orbit is not quite a circle but an ellipse. It is closest to the sun in January and moving fastest at the same time. This means that the time between successive noons (I.e. the time when the sun is due south if you are in the northern hemisphere) is slightly longer than average. In our summer it is the other way round (although it is actually more complicated than that and I’ve missed out the effect of the Earth’s axial tilt).

    TL;DR version: a traditional day (noon to noon) is only 24 hours on average over a year (hence the “Mean” in GMT).

    Edit: ellipse, not eclipse!
    And to add to what m'learned colleague said;

    Latest sunrise, shortest day and earliest sunset happen at different times, because of the complicated orbital stuff. Earliest sunset is around 12 December, but the latest sunrise isn't until about 30 December. Which is why mornings in early January are so rubbish.

    We can only flip to BST once there's enough spare daylight early in the morning to safely snaffle some of it for the evening, and that takes until late March. At the start of March, sunrise in London is only about 6.45 am, and we wouldn't really want to push it back to 7.45 am.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    I see the social care costs charges are to be rushed by House of Commons tomorrow.

    Presumably as fast as possible before rebellion grows.

    ‘tis the usual modus operandi
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    edited November 2021
    alex_ said:

    In shock news...

    "Northern Ireland to Scotland bridge plans scrapped"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59368707

    Did Sir Peter Hendy complete his report for free? I do hope so, because the plan was a joke, and deserved no preliminary investment.
  • Leon said:

    Valentine’s Day is the obvious contender. A festival of love and light in mid February. Heralding the end of winter as Halloween heralds the end of light… and the beginning of evil


    Just multiply it, commercialize it mercilessly, who cares. Have Valentine parties. Orgies. Drugs. Dances. Poems. Job done

    I've always seen Valentine's as a key date. Not because I am hopeless romantic. But because it has always been a date, firmly in the calendar, in my head, when I could breath out and say 'made it through another winter'. Certainly the case when I was working and had to fight my way to whatever office in near darkness and cold and sleet and so on.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    alex_ said:

    In shock news...

    "Northern Ireland to Scotland bridge plans scrapped"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59368707

    Did Sir Peter Hendy complete his report for free? I do hope so, because the plan was a joke, and deserved no preliminary investment.
    If he did, it’ll be the first time one of the clown’s dumb ideas hasn’t cost the taxpayer £millions.
  • HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.

    Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.

    For which we already have Shrove Tuesday
    They get Carnival, we get... pancakes.
    You mean it's all gone a little... flat?
  • ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    Catholics are bloody good at human-sized rituals that make sense of the year. But Carnival is a bit late; by the start of Lent, it really is very late winter. It may be cold and grim, but the days are noticeably longer and there's hope in the air. End of January, even when it's not been January 2021, is rubbish.

    (Relatedly, I was wandering round my garden this afternoon and neither my geraniums nor my honeysuckle had given up on the flowering thing. That's not right, is it?)
    My nasturtiums are still alive. And I'm still getting raspberries off my raspberry canes. Which is daft.

    I've brought the geraniums in but one frost apart I probably didn't need to.
    Brought in the last few garden-grown tomatoes a few days ago.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    Catholics are bloody good at human-sized rituals that make sense of the year. But Carnival is a bit late; by the start of Lent, it really is very late winter. It may be cold and grim, but the days are noticeably longer and there's hope in the air. End of January, even when it's not been January 2021, is rubbish.

    (Relatedly, I was wandering round my garden this afternoon and neither my geraniums nor my honeysuckle had given up on the flowering thing. That's not right, is it?)
    My nasturtiums are still alive. And I'm still getting raspberries off my raspberry canes. Which is daft.

    I've brought the geraniums in but one frost apart I probably didn't need to.
    Possibly relatedly, this has been the most Autumnal Autumn I can remember. Every weekend since late September I've thought, this is it, it can't get any more glorious and golden than this - and then the next weekend has been better. Possibly due to no particularly high winds, so the leaves have stayed on the trees for much longer. We have had golden morning and golden afternoon after golden morning and golden afternoon, and the beauty of it all has made me want to weep with joy.
    Arnside Knott, today, for sunset. One of the best sunsets I have seen in my life: the shallow waters and wet sands of Morecambe Bay like a polished bronze mirror. The woods around the top of the hill aflame with November russets and browns. The wide estuary of the Kent with the silhouettes of the Lakeland Fells behind. And then, dusk,then darkness, and an almost-full moon rising in the east, improbably large, impossibly bright.
    The pie I had in the pub was a bit disappointing mind. One of those pies which is really just a stew with a puff pastry lid. Good sticky toffee pudding though to round it off.
    It's not been a classic golden autumn down here in the south west - many leaves seemed to drop before reaching their best colour.
    That's interesting. I really don't know what factors should drag it out for so long, and so beautifully. I guess low winds are a part of it - summer was also warm, and there hasn't really been a properly brisk day before today.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    Catholics are bloody good at human-sized rituals that make sense of the year. But Carnival is a bit late; by the start of Lent, it really is very late winter. It may be cold and grim, but the days are noticeably longer and there's hope in the air. End of January, even when it's not been January 2021, is rubbish.

    (Relatedly, I was wandering round my garden this afternoon and neither my geraniums nor my honeysuckle had given up on the flowering thing. That's not right, is it?)
    My nasturtiums are still alive. And I'm still getting raspberries off my raspberry canes. Which is daft.

    I've brought the geraniums in but one frost apart I probably didn't need to.
    Possibly relatedly, this has been the most Autumnal Autumn I can remember. Every weekend since late September I've thought, this is it, it can't get any more glorious and golden than this - and then the next weekend has been better. Possibly due to no particularly high winds, so the leaves have stayed on the trees for much longer. We have had golden morning and golden afternoon after golden morning and golden afternoon, and the beauty of it all has made me want to weep with joy.
    Arnside Knott, today, for sunset. One of the best sunsets I have seen in my life: the shallow waters and wet sands of Morecambe Bay like a polished bronze mirror. The woods around the top of the hill aflame with November russets and browns. The wide estuary of the Kent with the silhouettes of the Lakeland Fells behind. And then, dusk,then darkness, and an almost-full moon rising in the east, improbably large, impossibly bright.
    The pie I had in the pub was a bit disappointing mind. One of those pies which is really just a stew with a puff pastry lid. Good sticky toffee pudding though to round it off.
    It's sure been a long one. Today felt like the very first day of winter. Thought about a coat. But, as an adopted Geordie rapidly resiled from such heresy.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    My geranium 'Rozanne' and Salvia Uliginosa (the most glorious azure blue) are still flowering away, as are some of the roses. Every garden should have them.

    A glorious autumn day here. A bit cold. But wonderful.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited November 2021
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    The last person to beat Johnson in an election became an accountant, so there's that.

    Michael Gove has become an accountant?

    Incidentally, apropos of nothing, the best typo I ever read was in a book on Victorian morality, where the 1861 Sexual Offences Act prohibited sex acts between 'consulting male auditors.'

    Goodness only knows how both autocorrect came up with it and the proof reader missed it.

    Only time I was thrown out of the Hugh Owen Library at Aber, because I was laughing so much somebody complained.
    Neil Sherlock, President of the Oxford Union.
    Gove doesn't count.

    Auditors in sexual congress is definitely a matter for preventive legislation.
    I would never have sex before a big audit. You need to be 100% to do yourself justice. Impossible if you're thinking of an upcoming big audit.
  • alex_ said:

    In shock news...

    "Northern Ireland to Scotland bridge plans scrapped"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59368707

    Did Sir Peter Hendy complete his report for free? I do hope so, because the plan was a joke, and deserved no preliminary investment.
    I believe I have a bet with another PB regular on the outcome of this, though he's been notably absent recently. Not because of this I think, rather naughty people being nasty about poor, victimised Boris in general.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.

    Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.

    For which we already have Shrove Tuesday
    They get Carnival, we get... pancakes.
    You mean it's all gone a little... flat?
    There's no need to be flippant.
  • "...the story is different on our intensive care unit. Here, the patient population consists of a few vulnerable people with severe underlying health problems and a majority of fit, healthy, younger people unvaccinated by choice."

    "Most of all, however, I am now beaten back, exhausted, worn down by the continuous stream of people that we battle to treat when they have consciously passed up the opportunity to save themselves."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/21/icu-is-full-of-the-unvaccinated-my-patience-with-them-is-wearing-thin?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
  • Cyclefree said:

    My geranium 'Rozanne' and Salvia Uliginosa (the most glorious azure blue) are still flowering away, as are some of the roses. Every garden should have them.

    A glorious autumn day here. A bit cold. But wonderful.

    My Salvia Hot Lips still flowering like its mid July.

    Same last year - right thru until mid December.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Anyway, Woke Joke-

    This "gender critical" bloke goes to the pub and starts chatting up the barmaid.

    "I've got the prostate, I've got the place. You've got the cervix, you've got the face. Let's get together the 2 of us over a glass of champagne"

    No? 🙂
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Cyclefree said:

    My geranium 'Rozanne' and Salvia Uliginosa (the most glorious azure blue) are still flowering away, as are some of the roses. Every garden should have them.

    A glorious autumn day here. A bit cold. But wonderful.

    We went to that arboretum in the cotswolds you mentioned a while back. My wife was pretty enraptured and even I found the time there flew by. We drew a nice day too which was fortunate.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Looks like Kast is going to win the first round in Chile. Runoff unclear though. Pre-election polls showed him winning the first round by about this much and having a narrow advantage in the December runoff.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My geranium 'Rozanne' and Salvia Uliginosa (the most glorious azure blue) are still flowering away, as are some of the roses. Every garden should have them.

    A glorious autumn day here. A bit cold. But wonderful.

    We went to that arboretum in the cotswolds you mentioned a while back. My wife was pretty enraptured and even I found the time there flew by. We drew a nice day too which was fortunate.
    Glad you enjoyed it.

    I recently visited an arboretum that a retired art historian is creating in Beckermet, not far from Sellafield on the coast. Some beautiful specimens but it is quite the labour of love as it gets very windy and not all the trees survive.

    Husband recently met with Piet Oudolf, the famous Dutch gardener, who is looking to create something special in our town. I am learning about the different sorts of plants you need to grow in an area which can be both windy and is near to the sea. When you walk along the coast you see some lovely coastal plants, beautifully adapted to their environment.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    ydoethur said:

    Another good day today and seeing my counsellor this work, still on the medication and will be for some time

    I hope it continues to recharge your Battery, Horse.
    And Correctly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Another good day today and seeing my counsellor this work, still on the medication and will be for some time

    I hope it continues to recharge your Battery, Horse.
    And Correctly.
    Avoiding reversing the polarity is apparently critical.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,503
    Quincel said:

    Looks like Kast is going to win the first round in Chile. Runoff unclear though. Pre-election polls showed him winning the first round by about this much and having a narrow advantage in the December runoff.

    Yes, 28-24 or so. The next 3 all on about 12. Sichel (centre-right) has conceded defeat and said he certainly won't support the far-left Boric (not a surprise), though hasn't yet confirmed he'll back the far-right Kast. do we know which way Parisi and Provoste lean?

    Certainly seems polarised to an extent that makes Trump vs Biden look a positively cuddly election contest. Literally neo-fascist vs neo-communist, with everyone else trailing.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    edited November 2021
    Charles said:

    For those who hate London (and those who don’t).

    Just saw a fantastic exhibition at the British Library - Elizabeth & Mary Queen of Scots.

    Really superb - had an hour there and only got about halfway around. Will even go back (which I rarely do) to see it again.

    Lots of documents I’ve only seen in books before.

    Highly highly recommended. Open til February

    Used to live a few minutes walk from the British Library in EC2, near Finsbury Square.

    For one of the very few modern buildings up there with the best of the best. Coventry Cathedral is another.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,168
    Charles said:

    For those who hate London (and those who don’t).

    Just saw a fantastic exhibition at the British Library - Elizabeth & Mary Queen of Scots.

    Really superb - had an hour there and only got about halfway around. Will even go back (which I rarely do) to see it again.

    Lots of documents I’ve only seen in books before.

    Highly highly recommended. Open til February

    Thanks for the recommendation.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,503

    Quincel said:

    Looks like Kast is going to win the first round in Chile. Runoff unclear though. Pre-election polls showed him winning the first round by about this much and having a narrow advantage in the December runoff.

    Yes, 28-24 or so. The next 3 all on about 12. Sichel (centre-right) has conceded defeat and said he certainly won't support the far-left Boric (not a surprise), though hasn't yet confirmed he'll back the far-right Kast. do we know which way Parisi and Provoste lean?

    Certainly seems polarised to an extent that makes Trump vs Biden look a positively cuddly election contest. Literally neo-fascist vs neo-communist, with everyone else trailing.
    Provoste (populist) has ruled out supporting "fascist" Kast and will consider endorsing Boric. if he does, and Sichel endorses Kast, that potentially adds 12 to both of them. The Kasy-Boric gap has narrowed to less than 3 points, as Boric is getting about 4 points more than the polls predicted. There are other minor candidates (including one Judean Front-style "Proletarian Action" candidate on 1.4% who thinks Boric isn't communist enough)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    Quincel said:

    Looks like Kast is going to win the first round in Chile. Runoff unclear though. Pre-election polls showed him winning the first round by about this much and having a narrow advantage in the December runoff.

    Yes, 28-24 or so. The next 3 all on about 12. Sichel (centre-right) has conceded defeat and said he certainly won't support the far-left Boric (not a surprise), though hasn't yet confirmed he'll back the far-right Kast. do we know which way Parisi and Provoste lean?

    Certainly seems polarised to an extent that makes Trump vs Biden look a positively cuddly election contest. Literally neo-fascist vs neo-communist, with everyone else trailing.
    Provoste (populist) has ruled out supporting "fascist" Kast and will consider endorsing Boric. if he does, and Sichel endorses Kast, that potentially adds 12 to both of them. The Kasy-Boric gap has narrowed to less than 3 points, as Boric is getting about 4 points more than the polls predicted. There are other minor candidates (including one Judean Front-style "Proletarian Action" candidate on 1.4% who thinks Boric isn't communist enough)
    Bloody Chile. A tragedy. Everything changed with Pinochet.
  • Quincel said:

    Looks like Kast is going to win the first round in Chile. Runoff unclear though. Pre-election polls showed him winning the first round by about this much and having a narrow advantage in the December runoff.

    Yes, 28-24 or so. The next 3 all on about 12. Sichel (centre-right) has conceded defeat and said he certainly won't support the far-left Boric (not a surprise), though hasn't yet confirmed he'll back the far-right Kast. do we know which way Parisi and Provoste lean?

    Certainly seems polarised to an extent that makes Trump vs Biden look a positively cuddly election contest. Literally neo-fascist vs neo-communist, with everyone else trailing.
    Provoste (populist) has ruled out supporting "fascist" Kast and will consider endorsing Boric. if he does, and Sichel endorses Kast, that potentially adds 12 to both of them. The Kasy-Boric gap has narrowed to less than 3 points, as Boric is getting about 4 points more than the polls predicted. There are other minor candidates (including one Judean Front-style "Proletarian Action" candidate on 1.4% who thinks Boric isn't communist enough)
    I know nothing about either candidates but why is Kast being called "fascist" by Provoste? Glancing at his Wikipedia page, that doesn't seem to be a typical remark about him?

    Is it just a case of certain people calling anyone they dislike "fascist"? Or has he done something to deserve being called that?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,168
    "How the Democrats could split
    Both parties are more fractured than we think
    BY ERIC KAUFMANN"

    https://unherd.com/2021/11/how-the-democrats-could-split/
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    For those who hate London (and those who don’t).

    Just saw a fantastic exhibition at the British Library - Elizabeth & Mary Queen of Scots.

    Really superb - had an hour there and only got about halfway around. Will even go back (which I rarely do) to see it again.

    Lots of documents I’ve only seen in books before.

    Highly highly recommended. Open til February

    Genuine question, what's the social distancing etc like in there? I might find time to visit.
    Mostly good although there were some exhibits with 2-3 people looking at the same time
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.

    Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.

    For which we already have Shrove Tuesday
    They get Carnival, we get... pancakes.
    You mean it's all gone a little... flat?
    There's no need to be flippant.
    That jokes getting panned.

    Too much waffle
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.

    https://twitter.com/RichPreston/status/1462408815207452677?s=20

    We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.

    Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.

    Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.

    It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.

    That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
    Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.

    I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.

    And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
    That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.

    I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.

    Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
    Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.

    News to me.

    You really do learn something new every day on PB.
    ....

    My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.

    I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
    The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
    Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
    We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
    We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.

    Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.

    For which we already have Shrove Tuesday
    They get Carnival, we get... pancakes.
    You mean it's all gone a little... flat?
    There's no need to be flippant.
    That jokes getting panned.

    Too much waffle
    The joke is toast!
  • dixiedean said:

    Quincel said:

    Looks like Kast is going to win the first round in Chile. Runoff unclear though. Pre-election polls showed him winning the first round by about this much and having a narrow advantage in the December runoff.

    Yes, 28-24 or so. The next 3 all on about 12. Sichel (centre-right) has conceded defeat and said he certainly won't support the far-left Boric (not a surprise), though hasn't yet confirmed he'll back the far-right Kast. do we know which way Parisi and Provoste lean?

    Certainly seems polarised to an extent that makes Trump vs Biden look a positively cuddly election contest. Literally neo-fascist vs neo-communist, with everyone else trailing.
    Provoste (populist) has ruled out supporting "fascist" Kast and will consider endorsing Boric. if he does, and Sichel endorses Kast, that potentially adds 12 to both of them. The Kasy-Boric gap has narrowed to less than 3 points, as Boric is getting about 4 points more than the polls predicted. There are other minor candidates (including one Judean Front-style "Proletarian Action" candidate on 1.4% who thinks Boric isn't communist enough)
    Bloody Chile. A tragedy. Everything changed with Pinochet.
    Gawd, don't get the Pinochet was actually a good thing lads started. Will make Hitler was a lefty evening look positively cerebral.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    For those who hate London (and those who don’t).

    Just saw a fantastic exhibition at the British Library - Elizabeth & Mary Queen of Scots.

    Really superb - had an hour there and only got about halfway around. Will even go back (which I rarely do) to see it again.

    Lots of documents I’ve only seen in books before.

    Highly highly recommended. Open til February

    Genuine question, what's the social distancing etc like in there? I might find time to visit.
    Mostly good although there were some exhibits with 2-3 people looking at the same time
    Steer clear of the Nat History and Science Museums then! Went the week before half term, was a total scrum of the kind that I’ve only experienced when Beijing’s domestic terminal delayed every flight for 12 hours.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 928
    Think Boris is doomed., especially if he loses or just squeezes home in one or both of the coming by elections
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    theakes said:

    Think Boris is doomed., especially if he loses or just squeezes home in one or both of the coming by elections

    Tories should be careful what they wish for.

    Boris with the right campaign will still reach voters no other Tory will.

    Next GE will return another Tory Majority under Boris

    Without Boris even PM SKS is a possibility.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    theakes said:

    Think Boris is doomed., especially if he loses or just squeezes home in one or both of the coming by elections

    Tories should be careful what they wish for.

    Boris with the right campaign will still reach voters no other Tory will.

    Next GE will return another Tory Majority under Boris

    Without Boris even PM SKS is a possibility.
    I think that is a very good point Big John. People who havn’t voted Conservative or not for a long time like Boris. I mean they really do. If they are deprived of voting for him is there a price to be paid - I like Boris what did you do that to him for, so I don’t like you Conservatives now because of it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    FPT:
    eek said:

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    murali_s said:

    People calling London a "shitheap". Surely some mistake? London is a great World City - arguable the best city in the World. Places like Scunthorpe, Hartlepool, Middlesborough are the real shitheaps - miserable places with miserable uneducated bigotted trash who reside there?

    What a disgusting post

    Ordinary hard working people with families live in these areas and are the salt of the earth

    Who on earth do you think you are
    Are you going to call out Yduffer for calling London a shit heap though? (you don't have to, of course, because we all know it isn't).
    The difference is between calling London a shitheap (I live in London but prefer the country, but it’s not a shitheap IMV) and being offensive about the people who live there.

    There are parts of central London which are absolutely world class - I really enjoy visits. And not just the bustling bits, there are some genuinely quiet neighbourhoods inside the circle line But the surrounding endless grim suburbia is seriously grim. Some of it painfully so, made worse by the absurd money that is asked of people to live there.
    When Charles says 'London' he's thinking of the view over Regent's Park from St John's Wood, not of Ilford or Edmonton or Peckham or Hounslow.
    I'd rather live in Peckham than St John's Wood. I virtually do live in Peckham in fact, SE15 is just a couple of streets over.
    Suburbia isn't grim, it's an oasis of parks and gardens, with thriving communities, friendly neighbours, decent schools, independent shops and restaurants, a plethora of activities for children, a thriving arts scene and reasonable commutes to work in Central London. It's only over priced because it's popular.
    The only thing that could improve London? If we could spend more of our money on London and less on subsidising people whose main leisure activity is sagging off London.
    The old chestnut that London funds the rest of the country rather than the reality that it sucks the life blood out of it and no matter how much is spent there compared to the rest of the country the selfish arseholes are never happy. Full of me me me parasites and bloodsuckers.
    The numbers speak for themselves. Londoners pay thousands of pounds more in tax than they receive back in government spending. That's just a fact, sorry if it's inconvenient.
    I'm very happy. I don't even mind subsidising the rest of the country. I'm not from London, I still have plenty of love for the rest of the UK, including the country of my birth (the same one as yours). I'm just sick of being told how awful we are and what a shit hole I live in by people who are taking my money.
    I don't mind the people in London. It's just the city itself is awful. Look at it with a cold eye. Unplanned, appallingly cramped, mostly full of third-rate Victorian architecture, overpriced, brutally congested, dirty, noisy and smelly, full of restaurants that offer food no better than anywhere else in the country but provide half the quantity at double the price - if I'm honest, that's particularly what I remember about being an impoverished student there.

    That's even before we get on to the issue of its woefully inadequate utilities network, which means it is chronically short of water, and the bizarre public transport system which nobody would probably use if it wasn't for the fact the roads are so twisty it takes even longer to walk than to take the sardine can, er, underground.

    (Your other point is wrong as well, incidentally, as the town I work in is a net contributor to the treasury, so I'm not taking your money.)

    If you like it, fine. You're welcome. Means I don't have to live there, which I'm even happier about because it's just not a nice place to be.

    Edit - I will admit I do find it annoying when people preach at me that I should love London because it 'subsidises everywhere else.' From that point of view, you should love all farmers in Oxfordshire because they allow the residue from your treated sewage to be spread on their fields. Or the people of the Thames Valley for providing you with water.
    I don't want love, indifference would be fine. It's the constant compulsive slagging off of London by people who don't live in London, don't know London and seem convinced that London is leeching off them that I find so monumentally boring, especially as there are things in London that need money spent on them, but apparently there's no money.
    Most of the horrible things you attribute to London could be applied to more or less every town and city in Britain. We live in a country built by the Victorians in a hurry and on the cheap and have been living with the consequences ever since.
    London's most immediate problem (and it's one that is going to scare Khan and TFL in the new future) is that there is no way Boris can agree to given TFL the money it needs to survive now.

    So TFL is going to have to start working out how to rapidly cut costs...

    Separately, the whole point of investing up North is that for a one off sum of money (albeit a lot) is that by making the north more efficient there should would be more tax revenue generated up north.
    Perhaps a serendipitous kick up the Rs will encourage Mayor Sadiq to discover some appropropriate moral courage, and first of all follow Paris in dealing with inefficiency in the tube system, and then to address the phalanxes of overpaid managers in TFL.

    They are at last a decade behind Paris.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-20985642
    All that requires is rebuilding the underground to allow barriers between the train and track - which costs big money (and remember there is NO money).

    https://www.londonreconnections.com/2021/the-political-myth-of-the-driverless-tube-train/ is an explanation as to why driverless trains aren't the solution people think they are.

    Nice line in there from the London's 2008-2016 Mayor in that report

    “I would rather prioritise capacity… ”
    Not really. I said increased efficiency not "driverless traits".

    LU has many different lines at their own levels of automation, run largely separately.

    There are plenty of opportunities to improve, and many have been there for decades - waiting to be addressed.

This discussion has been closed.