I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
PB is littered with predictions of lockdown at some vaguely defined point in the future.
I don't see admissions getting much more problematic before Christmas.
Boris will not cancel Christmas itself.
There will be an inevitable spike in admissions two weeks after Christmas. The size of this spike is unknown, but is still the most obvious time for a panicked Boris to go for another lockdown.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
PB is littered with predictions of lockdown at some vaguely defined point in the future.
And predictions that cases are about the skyrocket. And predictions that cases are about to fall because we've reach "herd immunity"
I predict that the predictions won't stop no matter how often they're wrong.
Are your predictions of predictions by reporting day, or day of prediction of prediction?
I don’t understand the train meme, when images of trains are posted next to covid stats. (Today’s numbers look decent by the way)
TOPS numbering of the engines. So a class 40 engine, might be number 40 004. Numbers of cases have been great for this. Ideally we don’t want deltics and we do want shutters, except the shunters wouldn’t work (08 class).
We certainly don't want any of those intercity 125s.
The engines for those are Class 43s! (eg. 43001)
Power cars. Not locomotives.
The class is officially the fastest diesel locomotive in the world, with an absolute maximum speed of 148 mph (238 km/h), and a regular service speed of 125 mph (201 km/h). The record run was led by 43102 (43302) and trailed by 43159.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the Senior Reporter and anchor for BBC World News, has just tested positive and he's triple jabbed, wears a mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Not really. The consequences of infection, vaccinated vs unvaccinated, are vastly different. For most of us vaccinated, it was like a moderate flu bout.
And that is exactly the case with my daughter, husband and grandson all confirmed with covid last week
Our son called today and said a colleague has had covid, was off for three weeks, and is now on a phased return
He like my daughter's family are vaccinated and needed no medical intervention
@Heathener posts are much as her first one, always negative, and increasingly a minority voice which seems to be in denial of just how much better we are in the UK, as covid becomes endemic and we learn to live with it, most probably for years
Like this double post that apparently didn't exist:
Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.
As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate...And the DWP have been told to expect lockdown in October.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
PB is littered with predictions of lockdown at some vaguely defined point in the future.
I don't see admissions getting much more problematic before Christmas.
Boris will not cancel Christmas itself.
There will be an inevitable spike in admissions two weeks after Christmas. The size of this spike is unknown, but is still the most obvious time for a panicked Boris to go for another lockdown.
Not necessarily true. Kids off school for two weeks. Boosters to all by then. People are already mixing like it’s 2019.
The last person to beat Johnson in an election became an accountant, so there's that.
Michael Gove has become an accountant?
Incidentally, apropos of nothing, the best typo I ever read was in a book on Victorian morality, where the 1861 Sexual Offences Act prohibited sex acts between 'consulting male auditors.'
Goodness only knows how both autocorrect came up with it and the proof reader missed it.
Only time I was thrown out of the Hugh Owen Library at Aber, because I was laughing so much somebody complained.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the Senior Reporter and anchor for BBC World News, has just tested positive and he's triple jabbed, wears a mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Not really. The consequences of infection, vaccinated vs unvaccinated, are vastly different. For most of us vaccinated, it was like a moderate flu bout.
And that is exactly the case with my daughter, husband and grandson all confirmed with covid last week
Our son called today and said a colleague has had covid, was off for three weeks, and is now on a phased return
He like my daughter's family are vaccinated and needed no medical intervention
@Heathener posts are much as her first one, always negative, and increasingly a minority voice which seems to be in denial of just how much better we are in the UK, as covid becomes endemic and we learn to live with it, most probably for years
Like this double post that apparently didn't exist:
Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.
As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate...And the DWP have been told to expect lockdown in October.
One sad milestone this week. The last of our Spanish/Portuguese nurses is leaving. We recruited about 10 in 2015. Most went back, or to France/Germany pre pandemic, but being redeployed to ICU was the final straw for the last one. She goes in a fortnight albeit with British dual nationality, but I don't think she will return.
A lot of staff have had enough and are talking of going too, even Mrs Foxy and I are increasingly talking about it.
Please don't go Foxy, the NHS is barely surviving as it is.
Not planning to yet, but doing anything at the moment is like wading in treacle, hard work to make minimal progress. No beds, staff shortages, morale in the dumps, patients with loads of neglected conditions over the last 18 months. It really is no longer much of a pleasure, and generally I love my job and have great colleagues and juniors.
One thing too is that while I haven't really been locked down is that my habits have changed. I went to my first meal out last week in over 6 months. It was nice, but used to be nearly a weekly event. I have re-learnt to enjoy simple pleasures such as reading, music, gardening, cooking, walking my dog across the fields, visiting the Isle of Wight family etc. In short, the cost of my leisure activities has reduced quite noticeably, and the simple life appeals more each day.
Anecdotally am hearing much of this. Taking fewer hours, or changing jobs for less pay and less hassle. My brother just quit yesterday for less pay but better hours. They realised they simply don't need the money that much anymore. If they ever did.
Yes and it is not just a British phenomenon. The Atlantic broke it down in several ways: the Great Resignation, the Great Rudeness, the Great Reset and the Great Reshuffling.
I don't think that I will quit medicine, but I may well "retire and return" on pension plus 50% part time, perhaps in another part of the country, or just doing locums when I fancy. Mrs Foxy would quite like to move to Wilts/Dorset area, where she has family.
Well I hope whatever you choose works out.
Speaking personally (and in the negative) I think a big factor in being able to feel good post career is that you can look back and say, "Yep, I did something of real value and I did it to the best of my ability".
This might not work for a Sinatra song but I do think it's the case.
Weren't you.... an accountant?
Forgive me if I got that wrong
An honest accountant is a pearl beyond price. Not to mention a competent one when one has a tax problem.
The last person to beat Johnson in an election became an accountant, so there's that.
Michael Gove has become an accountant?
Incidentally, apropos of nothing, the best typo I ever read was in a book on Victorian morality, where the 1861 Sexual Offences Act prohibited sex acts between 'consulting male auditors.'
Goodness only knows how both autocorrect came up with it and the proof reader missed it.
Only time I was thrown out of the Hugh Owen Library at Aber, because I was laughing so much somebody complained.
I'll come round tonight and give your books a right good going over...
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
The last person to beat Johnson in an election became an accountant, so there's that.
Michael Gove has become an accountant?
Incidentally, apropos of nothing, the best typo I ever read was in a book on Victorian morality, where the 1861 Sexual Offences Act prohibited sex acts between 'consulting male auditors.'
Goodness only knows how both autocorrect came up with it and the proof reader missed it.
Only time I was thrown out of the Hugh Owen Library at Aber, because I was laughing so much somebody complained.
Neil Sherlock, President of the Oxford Union. Gove doesn't count.
Auditors in sexual congress is definitely a matter for preventive legislation.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
Why do you think St Patrick's Day is so popular in the USA, regardless of personal Hiberianism or lack thereof?
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the Senior Reporter and anchor for BBC World News, has just tested positive and he's triple jabbed, wears a mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
I know the UK calculates its Covid death rate on those who die 28 days after a Covid diagnosis. Is the any statistics showing what the normal death rate would be. If the were circa 40K positive tests each day over 28 days that's aprox a population of 1.12 million people - just think this would put the statistics in a better context.
Between 17th September and 17th October there were 1,100,245 infections. If all these infections were as deadly as drinking a cup of tea you'd expect ~ 700 deaths between 17th October and 17th November mentioning 'within 28 days of the diagnosis' (Correcting properly for age it would be lower).
There were around 4,500.
Worth noting that a fair few expire more than 28 days post covid test, after weeks of ventilation etc. There is miscounting in both directions, hence the death certificate data at the ONS and Excess death figures also should be considered. Currently we are running about 1600 excess deaths per week.
I don’t understand the train meme, when images of trains are posted next to covid stats. (Today’s numbers look decent by the way)
TOPS numbering of the engines. So a class 40 engine, might be number 40 004. Numbers of cases have been great for this. Ideally we don’t want deltics and we do want shutters, except the shunters wouldn’t work (08 class).
We certainly don't want any of those intercity 125s.
The engines for those are Class 43s! (eg. 43001)
Power cars. Not locomotives.
The class is officially the fastest diesel locomotive in the world, with an absolute maximum speed of 148 mph (238 km/h), and a regular service speed of 125 mph (201 km/h). The record run was led by 43102 (43302) and trailed by 43159.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
If like me you are doing Dry January there is certainly something to look forward to at the end of the month.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
The last person to beat Johnson in an election became an accountant, so there's that.
Michael Gove has become an accountant?
Incidentally, apropos of nothing, the best typo I ever read was in a book on Victorian morality, where the 1861 Sexual Offences Act prohibited sex acts between 'consulting male auditors.'
Goodness only knows how both autocorrect came up with it and the proof reader missed it.
Only time I was thrown out of the Hugh Owen Library at Aber, because I was laughing so much somebody complained.
I'll come round tonight and give your books a right good going over...
Are you referring to dodgy financial records OR even dodgier stash of Celtic erotica?
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.
Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.
I know the UK calculates its Covid death rate on those who die 28 days after a Covid diagnosis. Is the any statistics showing what the normal death rate would be. If the were circa 40K positive tests each day over 28 days that's aprox a population of 1.12 million people - just think this would put the statistics in a better context.
Between 17th September and 17th October there were 1,100,245 infections. If all these infections were as deadly as drinking a cup of tea you'd expect ~ 700 deaths between 17th October and 17th November mentioning 'within 28 days of the diagnosis' (Correcting properly for age it would be lower).
There were around 4,500.
Worth noting that a fair few expire more than 28 days post covid test, after weeks of ventilation etc. There is miscounting in both directions, hence the death certificate data at the ONS and Excess death figures also should be considered. Currently we are running about 1600 excess deaths per week.
Although am I correct in thinking that references on death certificates aren’t necessarily an indication of a cause of death (or at least primary cause of death) and excess death figures are increasingly affected by people dying due to the effects of all the delayed treatments/undiagnosed conditions built up over the last 18 months? So will become increasingly unreliable as an indicator of current Covid impacts?
I have booked accommodation to visit my daughter in Bath in mid-December. I am still confident that I will be able to take this trip without any significant restrictions on what I can do while I am there (if any) excepting those following from my wife's caution.
Hopefully it will be dry and we can go to the rooftop open-air hot springs.
I have more doubts on the weather than on Covid.
Genuine question - does it matter if it’s raining if you are going in the hot water? Hoping you enjoy the trip. Sadly the Christmas market is not running this year which is a huge shame, as it’s always a highlight for us in the lead up to Christmas.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Hence the importance of having a Burns Supper. It adds a high point to a grim month.
So Humza Yousaf had a grievance with a nursery and instead of taking it up with them went to the papers. Now he has a grievance with the Indian community who he accuses of going public instead of taking it up with him. They prove they tried to speak to him and he did not respond.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
Catholics are bloody good at human-sized rituals that make sense of the year. But Carnival is a bit late; by the start of Lent, it really is very late winter. It may be cold and grim, but the days are noticeably longer and there's hope in the air. End of January, even when it's not been January 2021, is rubbish.
(Relatedly, I was wandering round my garden this afternoon and neither my geraniums nor my honeysuckle had given up on the flowering thing. That's not right, is it?)
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
Catholics are bloody good at human-sized rituals that make sense of the year. But Carnival is a bit late; by the start of Lent, it really is very late winter. It may be cold and grim, but the days are noticeably longer and there's hope in the air. End of January, even when it's not been January 2021, is rubbish.
(Relatedly, I was wandering round my garden this afternoon and neither my geraniums nor my honeysuckle had given up on the flowering thing. That's not right, is it?)
My nasturtiums are still alive. And I'm still getting raspberries off my raspberry canes. Which is daft.
I've brought the geraniums in but one frost apart I probably didn't need to.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
Catholics are bloody good at human-sized rituals that make sense of the year. But Carnival is a bit late; by the start of Lent, it really is very late winter. It may be cold and grim, but the days are noticeably longer and there's hope in the air. End of January, even when it's not been January 2021, is rubbish.
(Relatedly, I was wandering round my garden this afternoon and neither my geraniums nor my honeysuckle had given up on the flowering thing. That's not right, is it?)
Lent comes from the same root as lengthen. So it already commemorates the fact the days are getting longer. In fact it was the Anglo-Saxon word for Spring.
One sad milestone this week. The last of our Spanish/Portuguese nurses is leaving. We recruited about 10 in 2015. Most went back, or to France/Germany pre pandemic, but being redeployed to ICU was the final straw for the last one. She goes in a fortnight albeit with British dual nationality, but I don't think she will return.
A lot of staff have had enough and are talking of going too, even Mrs Foxy and I are increasingly talking about it.
Please don't go Foxy, the NHS is barely surviving as it is.
Not planning to yet, but doing anything at the moment is like wading in treacle, hard work to make minimal progress. No beds, staff shortages, morale in the dumps, patients with loads of neglected conditions over the last 18 months. It really is no longer much of a pleasure, and generally I love my job and have great colleagues and juniors.
One thing too is that while I haven't really been locked down is that my habits have changed. I went to my first meal out last week in over 6 months. It was nice, but used to be nearly a weekly event. I have re-learnt to enjoy simple pleasures such as reading, music, gardening, cooking, walking my dog across the fields, visiting the Isle of Wight family etc. In short, the cost of my leisure activities has reduced quite noticeably, and the simple life appeals more each day.
Anecdotally am hearing much of this. Taking fewer hours, or changing jobs for less pay and less hassle. My brother just quit yesterday for less pay but better hours. They realised they simply don't need the money that much anymore. If they ever did.
Yes and it is not just a British phenomenon. The Atlantic broke it down in several ways: the Great Resignation, the Great Rudeness, the Great Reset and the Great Reshuffling.
I don't think that I will quit medicine, but I may well "retire and return" on pension plus 50% part time, perhaps in another part of the country, or just doing locums when I fancy. Mrs Foxy would quite like to move to Wilts/Dorset area, where she has family.
Well I hope whatever you choose works out.
Speaking personally (and in the negative) I think a big factor in being able to feel good post career is that you can look back and say, "Yep, I did something of real value and I did it to the best of my ability".
This might not work for a Sinatra song but I do think it's the case.
Weren't you.... an accountant?
Forgive me if I got that wrong
An honest accountant is a pearl beyond price. Not to mention a competent one when one has a tax problem.
I gather, done right, it's a very taxing profession.
The upper reaches of the profession are completely bent in my view. Entirely within the law of course,
Actually thinking about it all accountants are on the make.
Good and honest accountants are not that rare (though I'd agree about the upper reaches of the profession). Competent solicitors are much harder to find in my experience.
What a waste of a life. Being an accountant
You get one go on this earth. And you spend it totting up numbers to save people some tax? In an office? That's it?
There are some jobs I find contemptible, others I find pitiful. Accountant seems to tick both boxes. A rarity
90%+ of jobs are pointless. I remember a vote leave activist who worked in some sort of finance office boasting that he was able to do good in the world by speeding up certain mortgage applications.
At least if you are an accountant you can be some practical use to people. I haven't been able to find a good accountant, I end up employing idiots; I have to check every single thing that they tell me on google and half the time they are telling me the wrong thing.
I know the UK calculates its Covid death rate on those who die 28 days after a Covid diagnosis. Is the any statistics showing what the normal death rate would be. If the were circa 40K positive tests each day over 28 days that's aprox a population of 1.12 million people - just think this would put the statistics in a better context.
Between 17th September and 17th October there were 1,100,245 infections. If all these infections were as deadly as drinking a cup of tea you'd expect ~ 700 deaths between 17th October and 17th November mentioning 'within 28 days of the diagnosis' (Correcting properly for age it would be lower).
There were around 4,500.
Worth noting that a fair few expire more than 28 days post covid test, after weeks of ventilation etc. There is miscounting in both directions, hence the death certificate data at the ONS and Excess death figures also should be considered. Currently we are running about 1600 excess deaths per week.
Although am I correct in thinking that references on death certificates aren’t necessarily an indication of a cause of death (or at least primary cause of death) and excess death figures are increasingly affected by people dying due to the effects of all the delayed treatments/undiagnosed conditions built up over the last 18 months? So will become increasingly unreliable as an indicator of current Covid impacts?
Death certificates do record the causes as well as contributing factors.
Excess figures do rise and fall with case numbers, hospitalisations and 28 day deaths, even going negative at some points. If it were due to neglected other conditions then there would be a different pattern.
It may well be that there is no real alternative to these deaths, but denying that they relate to covid just isn't plausible.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
Catholics are bloody good at human-sized rituals that make sense of the year. But Carnival is a bit late; by the start of Lent, it really is very late winter. It may be cold and grim, but the days are noticeably longer and there's hope in the air. End of January, even when it's not been January 2021, is rubbish.
(Relatedly, I was wandering round my garden this afternoon and neither my geraniums nor my honeysuckle had given up on the flowering thing. That's not right, is it?)
Lent comes from the same root as lengthen. So it already commemorates the fact the days are getting longer. In fact it was the Anglo-Saxon word for Spring.
To an extent, that's true of Christmas as well- hence all the light coming into the world imagery. Days start to lengthen, however imperceptibly, from around December 21.
Maybe what we need is to go back to the idea of Christmas starting, not ending on December 25. And let it roll on to Candlemas, February 2.
These vastly different council tax rates surely makes the case for a single annual property rate (or banded rates) applied nationally, rather than based on local council's net financing requirements.
Which would make it considerably more difficult for working-class people to live in more expensive areas of the country.
The current problem, though, is that poorer areas have more service demands than richer areas. They therefore have higher council tax charges, which encourage the flight of the more talented. (Why stay and pay more Council Tax when you can move to a richer part of the country and pay less? Only those whose Council Tax is subsidised by Central Government stay in high tax areas.)
Any actual evidence to support that?
Are people leaving Lewes or Rutland (Band D £2,189 and £2,194 respectively) to go and live in Westminster or Wandsworth (Band D £829 and £845)?
One sad milestone this week. The last of our Spanish/Portuguese nurses is leaving. We recruited about 10 in 2015. Most went back, or to France/Germany pre pandemic, but being redeployed to ICU was the final straw for the last one. She goes in a fortnight albeit with British dual nationality, but I don't think she will return.
A lot of staff have had enough and are talking of going too, even Mrs Foxy and I are increasingly talking about it.
Please don't go Foxy, the NHS is barely surviving as it is.
Not planning to yet, but doing anything at the moment is like wading in treacle, hard work to make minimal progress. No beds, staff shortages, morale in the dumps, patients with loads of neglected conditions over the last 18 months. It really is no longer much of a pleasure, and generally I love my job and have great colleagues and juniors.
One thing too is that while I haven't really been locked down is that my habits have changed. I went to my first meal out last week in over 6 months. It was nice, but used to be nearly a weekly event. I have re-learnt to enjoy simple pleasures such as reading, music, gardening, cooking, walking my dog across the fields, visiting the Isle of Wight family etc. In short, the cost of my leisure activities has reduced quite noticeably, and the simple life appeals more each day.
Anecdotally am hearing much of this. Taking fewer hours, or changing jobs for less pay and less hassle. My brother just quit yesterday for less pay but better hours. They realised they simply don't need the money that much anymore. If they ever did.
Yes and it is not just a British phenomenon. The Atlantic broke it down in several ways: the Great Resignation, the Great Rudeness, the Great Reset and the Great Reshuffling.
I don't think that I will quit medicine, but I may well "retire and return" on pension plus 50% part time, perhaps in another part of the country, or just doing locums when I fancy. Mrs Foxy would quite like to move to Wilts/Dorset area, where she has family.
Well I hope whatever you choose works out.
Speaking personally (and in the negative) I think a big factor in being able to feel good post career is that you can look back and say, "Yep, I did something of real value and I did it to the best of my ability".
This might not work for a Sinatra song but I do think it's the case.
Weren't you.... an accountant?
Forgive me if I got that wrong
An honest accountant is a pearl beyond price. Not to mention a competent one when one has a tax problem.
I gather, done right, it's a very taxing profession.
The upper reaches of the profession are completely bent in my view. Entirely within the law of course,
Actually thinking about it all accountants are on the make.
Good and honest accountants are not that rare (though I'd agree about the upper reaches of the profession). Competent solicitors are much harder to find in my experience.
What a waste of a life. Being an accountant
You get one go on this earth. And you spend it totting up numbers to save people some tax? In an office? That's it?
There are some jobs I find contemptible, others I find pitiful. Accountant seems to tick both boxes. A rarity
90%+ of jobs are pointless. I remember a vote leave activist who worked in some sort of finance office boasting that he was able to do good in the world by speeding up certain mortgage applications.
At least if you are an accountant you can be some practical use to people. I haven't been able to find a good accountant, I end up employing idiots; I have to check every single thing that they tell me on google and half the time they are telling me the wrong thing.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.
Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
Catholics are bloody good at human-sized rituals that make sense of the year. But Carnival is a bit late; by the start of Lent, it really is very late winter. It may be cold and grim, but the days are noticeably longer and there's hope in the air. End of January, even when it's not been January 2021, is rubbish.
(Relatedly, I was wandering round my garden this afternoon and neither my geraniums nor my honeysuckle had given up on the flowering thing. That's not right, is it?)
My nasturtiums are still alive. And I'm still getting raspberries off my raspberry canes. Which is daft.
I've brought the geraniums in but one frost apart I probably didn't need to.
Possibly relatedly, this has been the most Autumnal Autumn I can remember. Every weekend since late September I've thought, this is it, it can't get any more glorious and golden than this - and then the next weekend has been better. Possibly due to no particularly high winds, so the leaves have stayed on the trees for much longer. We have had golden morning and golden afternoon after golden morning and golden afternoon, and the beauty of it all has made me want to weep with joy. Arnside Knott, today, for sunset. One of the best sunsets I have seen in my life: the shallow waters and wet sands of Morecambe Bay like a polished bronze mirror. The woods around the top of the hill aflame with November russets and browns. The wide estuary of the Kent with the silhouettes of the Lakeland Fells behind. And then, dusk,then darkness, and an almost-full moon rising in the east, improbably large, impossibly bright. The pie I had in the pub was a bit disappointing mind. One of those pies which is really just a stew with a puff pastry lid. Good sticky toffee pudding though to round it off.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
Bringing forward BST to the first Sunday in March would help. Never been clear why we have to drag GMT out until the final weekend of that month.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.
Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.
For which we already have Shrove Tuesday
They get Carnival, we get... pancakes.
Which I'm sure we all agree is much better. Works for me.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
Bringing forward BST to the first Sunday in March would help. Never been clear why we have to drag GMT out until the final weekend of that month.
Be interesting to see how eg. statutory gender balance in Parliament and caps on second/holiday homes is actually implemented in practice. Also how "homelessness" is being defined to allow it to be "ended" (link talks about a responsibility regardless of "priority need", but at the moment people are assessed as having priority need which gives local authorities a responsibility to house them - but officially, whilst they remain in temporary accommodation they are still officially homeless).
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
Catholics are bloody good at human-sized rituals that make sense of the year. But Carnival is a bit late; by the start of Lent, it really is very late winter. It may be cold and grim, but the days are noticeably longer and there's hope in the air. End of January, even when it's not been January 2021, is rubbish.
(Relatedly, I was wandering round my garden this afternoon and neither my geraniums nor my honeysuckle had given up on the flowering thing. That's not right, is it?)
There are a few famous British victories in mid-to-late January that could be celebrated - Cape St Vincent on the 16th or Rorke's Drift on the 22nd (or Isandlwana if you want to mark a British defeat).
Be interesting to see how eg. statutory gender balance in Parliament and caps on second/holiday homes is actually implemented in practice. Also how "homelessness" is being defined to allow it to be "ended" (link talks about a responsibility regardless of "priority need", but at the moment people are assessed as having priority need which gives local authorities a responsibility to house them - but officially, whilst they remain in temporary accommodation they are still officially homeless).
A state owned construction and energy company? Brave…
Eric Topol @EricTopol · 2h How to generate a new surge? Have 40% of Americans not fully vaccinated, and another 40% vaccinated but waned (past 6 months).
Be interesting to see how eg. statutory gender balance in Parliament and caps on second/holiday homes is actually implemented in practice. Also how "homelessness" is being defined to allow it to be "ended" (link talks about a responsibility regardless of "priority need", but at the moment people are assessed as having priority need which gives local authorities a responsibility to house them - but officially, whilst they remain in temporary accommodation they are still officially homeless).
A state owned construction and energy company? Brave…
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
Catholics are bloody good at human-sized rituals that make sense of the year. But Carnival is a bit late; by the start of Lent, it really is very late winter. It may be cold and grim, but the days are noticeably longer and there's hope in the air. End of January, even when it's not been January 2021, is rubbish.
(Relatedly, I was wandering round my garden this afternoon and neither my geraniums nor my honeysuckle had given up on the flowering thing. That's not right, is it?)
My nasturtiums are still alive. And I'm still getting raspberries off my raspberry canes. Which is daft.
I've brought the geraniums in but one frost apart I probably didn't need to.
Possibly relatedly, this has been the most Autumnal Autumn I can remember. Every weekend since late September I've thought, this is it, it can't get any more glorious and golden than this - and then the next weekend has been better. Possibly due to no particularly high winds, so the leaves have stayed on the trees for much longer. We have had golden morning and golden afternoon after golden morning and golden afternoon, and the beauty of it all has made me want to weep with joy. Arnside Knott, today, for sunset. One of the best sunsets I have seen in my life: the shallow waters and wet sands of Morecambe Bay like a polished bronze mirror. The woods around the top of the hill aflame with November russets and browns. The wide estuary of the Kent with the silhouettes of the Lakeland Fells behind. And then, dusk,then darkness, and an almost-full moon rising in the east, improbably large, impossibly bright. The pie I had in the pub was a bit disappointing mind. One of those pies which is really just a stew with a puff pastry lid. Good sticky toffee pudding though to round it off.
It's not been a classic golden autumn down here in the south west - many leaves seemed to drop before reaching their best colour.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.
Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.
For which we already have Shrove Tuesday
They get Carnival, we get... pancakes.
I don't see why we'd have to become Catholic to make a rather bigger thing of pancake day. Don't get me wrong: pancakes are a fine thing. But it's hardly four days of debauchery without sleeping in your own bed a la Binche. I
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.
Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.
For which we already have Shrove Tuesday
They get Carnival, we get... pancakes.
I don't see why we'd have to become Catholic to make a rather bigger thing of pancake day. Don't get me wrong: pancakes are a fine thing. But it's hardly four days of debauchery without sleeping in your own bed a la Binche. I
Be interesting to see how eg. statutory gender balance in Parliament and caps on second/holiday homes is actually implemented in practice. Also how "homelessness" is being defined to allow it to be "ended" (link talks about a responsibility regardless of "priority need", but at the moment people are assessed as having priority need which gives local authorities a responsibility to house them - but officially, whilst they remain in temporary accommodation they are still officially homeless).
A state owned construction and energy company? Brave…
Never worth looking at sunday's, the numbers are always down. Compare the 7 day average and do not try to kid yourself and other people. Bit like using subsamples.
The numbers have shown the falls for sometime now, apart from infections, and there is no evidence admissions or sadly deaths are rising
Indeed my daughter and her family have had positive tests this last week but they are working from home whilst isolating
The does seem to be quite a few locally contacting covid but the vaccine and boosters are working and keeping them out of hospital
Unfortunately the vaccine and boosters are not working for those who refused to have them, the same people who are responsible for reducing the NHS to its knees going into the winter months.
My patience with them is wearing thin too. It's time to make the life of the unvaccinated difficult, rather than watch the NHS disintegrate and in response impose further restrictions on the substantial majority who have done the right thing.
I agree. Vaccine passports for pubs and sporting events have always seemed to me to be a sensible way of incentivising the stupid. The obvious Darwinian benefit is just too slow and the consequences for others too severe to let this go on.
Vaccine passports for pubs doesn’t just make life difficult for the unvaccinated. It makes life very difficult for the pubs expected to enforce them as well.
Hopefully we'll be able to keep on doing without vaccine passports in England, but I question how much difference they would make even if we tried using them. AIUI they've had them in Germany all along and a fat lot of good it has done.
That kind of measure is only going to get anti-vaxxers out of circulation and/or compel them to stop digging their heels in if it is made a condition of going to work. The large bulk of anti-vaxxers aren't pensioners: strip them of their income and they'll soon be forced to give in.
Why though? The NHS isn’t about to keel over. The risk they are taking is with their own health. Why discriminate against fellow citizens to force them to take a medical intervention against their will?
Did you not see the discussion earlier today about the state of the NHS? With Foxy et al.
I did. Leicester isn’t that representative.
But many of the problems - exhaustion, low morale, a long backlog (although they are working through it very fast) won’t be solved by a small reduction in the number of cases.
Unfortunately we just need to get through the winter and then give people a long break.
But compulsory medical treatments have a very high bar. And compulsory vaccination action is currently illegal so would need primary legislation
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.
Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.
For which we already have Shrove Tuesday
They get Carnival, we get... pancakes.
Which I'm sure we all agree is much better. Works for me.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
Bringing forward BST to the first Sunday in March would help. Never been clear why we have to drag GMT out until the final weekend of that month.
I haven't a clue what the article is talking about - perhaps you could rewrite it even more basically to help out the dummies.
The Earth’s orbit is not quite a circle but an ellipse. It is closest to the sun in January and moving fastest at the same time. This means that the time between successive noons (I.e. the time when the sun is due south if you are in the northern hemisphere) is slightly longer than average. In our summer it is the other way round (although it is actually more complicated than that and I’ve missed out the effect of the Earth’s axial tilt).
TL;DR version: a traditional day (noon to noon) is only 24 hours on average over a year (hence the “Mean” in GMT).
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.
Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.
For which we already have Shrove Tuesday
They get Carnival, we get... pancakes.
Which I'm sure we all agree is much better. Works for me.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
Bringing forward BST to the first Sunday in March would help. Never been clear why we have to drag GMT out until the final weekend of that month.
I haven't a clue what the article is talking about - perhaps you could rewrite it even more basically to help out the dummies.
The Earth’s orbit is not quite a circle but an eclipse. It is closest to the sun in January and moving fastest at the same time. This means that the time between successive noons (I.e. the time when the sun is due south if you are in the northern hemisphere) is slightly longer than average. In our summer it is the other way round (although it is actually more complicated than that and I’ve missed out the effect of the Earth’s axial tilt).
TL;DR version: a traditional day (noon to noon) is only 24 hours on average over a year (hence the “Mean” in GMT).
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
Catholics are bloody good at human-sized rituals that make sense of the year. But Carnival is a bit late; by the start of Lent, it really is very late winter. It may be cold and grim, but the days are noticeably longer and there's hope in the air. End of January, even when it's not been January 2021, is rubbish.
(Relatedly, I was wandering round my garden this afternoon and neither my geraniums nor my honeysuckle had given up on the flowering thing. That's not right, is it?)
My nasturtiums are still alive. And I'm still getting raspberries off my raspberry canes. Which is daft.
I've brought the geraniums in but one frost apart I probably didn't need to.
Possibly relatedly, this has been the most Autumnal Autumn I can remember. Every weekend since late September I've thought, this is it, it can't get any more glorious and golden than this - and then the next weekend has been better. Possibly due to no particularly high winds, so the leaves have stayed on the trees for much longer. We have had golden morning and golden afternoon after golden morning and golden afternoon, and the beauty of it all has made me want to weep with joy. Arnside Knott, today, for sunset. One of the best sunsets I have seen in my life: the shallow waters and wet sands of Morecambe Bay like a polished bronze mirror. The woods around the top of the hill aflame with November russets and browns. The wide estuary of the Kent with the silhouettes of the Lakeland Fells behind. And then, dusk,then darkness, and an almost-full moon rising in the east, improbably large, impossibly bright. The pie I had in the pub was a bit disappointing mind. One of those pies which is really just a stew with a puff pastry lid. Good sticky toffee pudding though to round it off.
I've had some disappointing pub food in Arnside.
I was about to recommend the Kingfisher but have just seen that it shut down in the summer.
Valentine’s Day is the obvious contender. A festival of love and light in mid February. Heralding the end of winter as Halloween heralds the end of light… and the beginning of evil
Just multiply it, commercialize it mercilessly, who cares. Have Valentine parties. Orgies. Drugs. Dances. Poems. Job done
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.
Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.
For which we already have Shrove Tuesday
They get Carnival, we get... pancakes.
Which I'm sure we all agree is much better. Works for me.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
Bringing forward BST to the first Sunday in March would help. Never been clear why we have to drag GMT out until the final weekend of that month.
I haven't a clue what the article is talking about - perhaps you could rewrite it even more basically to help out the dummies.
The Earth’s orbit is not quite a circle but an eclipse. It is closest to the sun in January and moving fastest at the same time. This means that the time between successive noons (I.e. the time when the sun is due south if you are in the northern hemisphere) is slightly longer than average. In our summer it is the other way round (although it is actually more complicated than that and I’ve missed out the effect of the Earth’s axial tilt).
TL;DR version: a traditional day (noon to noon) is only 24 hours on average over a year (hence the “Mean” in GMT).
Valentine’s Day is the obvious contender. A festival of love and light in mid February. Heralding the end of winter as Halloween heralds the end of light… and the beginning of evil
Just multiply it, commercialize it mercilessly, who cares. Have Valentine parties. Orgies. Drugs. Dances. Poems. Job done
Candlemas (aka Groundhog Day) only 12 days earlier is the middle of winter, so I’m not sure Valentine’s Day heralds its end.
Valentine’s Day is the obvious contender. A festival of love and light in mid February. Heralding the end of winter as Halloween heralds the end of light… and the beginning of evil
Just multiply it, commercialize it mercilessly, who cares. Have Valentine parties. Orgies. Drugs. Dances. Poems. Job done
Candlemas (aka Groundhog Day) only 12 days earlier is the middle of winter, so I’m not sure Valentine’s Day heralds its end.
It’s not the middle of winter in southern England. By feb 14 you can sense the days lengthening, the chances of a massive freeze are almost over. You may have 2-7 weeks of wintry grind left, it depends, but you are definitely through the worst. January and early feb are the worst. So. Feb 14. That’s when it’s time to celebrate, through gritted wine-stained teeth
Of course it may be different in Scotland when winter extends cleverly into summer, and often skips summer entirely
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.
Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.
For which we already have Shrove Tuesday
They get Carnival, we get... pancakes.
Which I'm sure we all agree is much better. Works for me.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
Bringing forward BST to the first Sunday in March would help. Never been clear why we have to drag GMT out until the final weekend of that month.
I haven't a clue what the article is talking about - perhaps you could rewrite it even more basically to help out the dummies.
The Earth’s orbit is not quite a circle but an ellipse. It is closest to the sun in January and moving fastest at the same time. This means that the time between successive noons (I.e. the time when the sun is due south if you are in the northern hemisphere) is slightly longer than average. In our summer it is the other way round (although it is actually more complicated than that and I’ve missed out the effect of the Earth’s axial tilt).
TL;DR version: a traditional day (noon to noon) is only 24 hours on average over a year (hence the “Mean” in GMT).
Edit: ellipse, not eclipse!
And to add to what m'learned colleague said;
Latest sunrise, shortest day and earliest sunset happen at different times, because of the complicated orbital stuff. Earliest sunset is around 12 December, but the latest sunrise isn't until about 30 December. Which is why mornings in early January are so rubbish.
We can only flip to BST once there's enough spare daylight early in the morning to safely snaffle some of it for the evening, and that takes until late March. At the start of March, sunrise in London is only about 6.45 am, and we wouldn't really want to push it back to 7.45 am.
Valentine’s Day is the obvious contender. A festival of love and light in mid February. Heralding the end of winter as Halloween heralds the end of light… and the beginning of evil
Just multiply it, commercialize it mercilessly, who cares. Have Valentine parties. Orgies. Drugs. Dances. Poems. Job done
I've always seen Valentine's as a key date. Not because I am hopeless romantic. But because it has always been a date, firmly in the calendar, in my head, when I could breath out and say 'made it through another winter'. Certainly the case when I was working and had to fight my way to whatever office in near darkness and cold and sleet and so on.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.
Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
Catholics are bloody good at human-sized rituals that make sense of the year. But Carnival is a bit late; by the start of Lent, it really is very late winter. It may be cold and grim, but the days are noticeably longer and there's hope in the air. End of January, even when it's not been January 2021, is rubbish.
(Relatedly, I was wandering round my garden this afternoon and neither my geraniums nor my honeysuckle had given up on the flowering thing. That's not right, is it?)
My nasturtiums are still alive. And I'm still getting raspberries off my raspberry canes. Which is daft.
I've brought the geraniums in but one frost apart I probably didn't need to.
Brought in the last few garden-grown tomatoes a few days ago.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
Catholics are bloody good at human-sized rituals that make sense of the year. But Carnival is a bit late; by the start of Lent, it really is very late winter. It may be cold and grim, but the days are noticeably longer and there's hope in the air. End of January, even when it's not been January 2021, is rubbish.
(Relatedly, I was wandering round my garden this afternoon and neither my geraniums nor my honeysuckle had given up on the flowering thing. That's not right, is it?)
My nasturtiums are still alive. And I'm still getting raspberries off my raspberry canes. Which is daft.
I've brought the geraniums in but one frost apart I probably didn't need to.
Possibly relatedly, this has been the most Autumnal Autumn I can remember. Every weekend since late September I've thought, this is it, it can't get any more glorious and golden than this - and then the next weekend has been better. Possibly due to no particularly high winds, so the leaves have stayed on the trees for much longer. We have had golden morning and golden afternoon after golden morning and golden afternoon, and the beauty of it all has made me want to weep with joy. Arnside Knott, today, for sunset. One of the best sunsets I have seen in my life: the shallow waters and wet sands of Morecambe Bay like a polished bronze mirror. The woods around the top of the hill aflame with November russets and browns. The wide estuary of the Kent with the silhouettes of the Lakeland Fells behind. And then, dusk,then darkness, and an almost-full moon rising in the east, improbably large, impossibly bright. The pie I had in the pub was a bit disappointing mind. One of those pies which is really just a stew with a puff pastry lid. Good sticky toffee pudding though to round it off.
It's not been a classic golden autumn down here in the south west - many leaves seemed to drop before reaching their best colour.
That's interesting. I really don't know what factors should drag it out for so long, and so beautifully. I guess low winds are a part of it - summer was also warm, and there hasn't really been a properly brisk day before today.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
Catholics are bloody good at human-sized rituals that make sense of the year. But Carnival is a bit late; by the start of Lent, it really is very late winter. It may be cold and grim, but the days are noticeably longer and there's hope in the air. End of January, even when it's not been January 2021, is rubbish.
(Relatedly, I was wandering round my garden this afternoon and neither my geraniums nor my honeysuckle had given up on the flowering thing. That's not right, is it?)
My nasturtiums are still alive. And I'm still getting raspberries off my raspberry canes. Which is daft.
I've brought the geraniums in but one frost apart I probably didn't need to.
Possibly relatedly, this has been the most Autumnal Autumn I can remember. Every weekend since late September I've thought, this is it, it can't get any more glorious and golden than this - and then the next weekend has been better. Possibly due to no particularly high winds, so the leaves have stayed on the trees for much longer. We have had golden morning and golden afternoon after golden morning and golden afternoon, and the beauty of it all has made me want to weep with joy. Arnside Knott, today, for sunset. One of the best sunsets I have seen in my life: the shallow waters and wet sands of Morecambe Bay like a polished bronze mirror. The woods around the top of the hill aflame with November russets and browns. The wide estuary of the Kent with the silhouettes of the Lakeland Fells behind. And then, dusk,then darkness, and an almost-full moon rising in the east, improbably large, impossibly bright. The pie I had in the pub was a bit disappointing mind. One of those pies which is really just a stew with a puff pastry lid. Good sticky toffee pudding though to round it off.
It's sure been a long one. Today felt like the very first day of winter. Thought about a coat. But, as an adopted Geordie rapidly resiled from such heresy.
My geranium 'Rozanne' and Salvia Uliginosa (the most glorious azure blue) are still flowering away, as are some of the roses. Every garden should have them.
A glorious autumn day here. A bit cold. But wonderful.
The last person to beat Johnson in an election became an accountant, so there's that.
Michael Gove has become an accountant?
Incidentally, apropos of nothing, the best typo I ever read was in a book on Victorian morality, where the 1861 Sexual Offences Act prohibited sex acts between 'consulting male auditors.'
Goodness only knows how both autocorrect came up with it and the proof reader missed it.
Only time I was thrown out of the Hugh Owen Library at Aber, because I was laughing so much somebody complained.
Neil Sherlock, President of the Oxford Union. Gove doesn't count.
Auditors in sexual congress is definitely a matter for preventive legislation.
I would never have sex before a big audit. You need to be 100% to do yourself justice. Impossible if you're thinking of an upcoming big audit.
Did Sir Peter Hendy complete his report for free? I do hope so, because the plan was a joke, and deserved no preliminary investment.
I believe I have a bet with another PB regular on the outcome of this, though he's been notably absent recently. Not because of this I think, rather naughty people being nasty about poor, victimised Boris in general.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.
Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.
"...the story is different on our intensive care unit. Here, the patient population consists of a few vulnerable people with severe underlying health problems and a majority of fit, healthy, younger people unvaccinated by choice."
"Most of all, however, I am now beaten back, exhausted, worn down by the continuous stream of people that we battle to treat when they have consciously passed up the opportunity to save themselves."
My geranium 'Rozanne' and Salvia Uliginosa (the most glorious azure blue) are still flowering away, as are some of the roses. Every garden should have them.
A glorious autumn day here. A bit cold. But wonderful.
My Salvia Hot Lips still flowering like its mid July.
My geranium 'Rozanne' and Salvia Uliginosa (the most glorious azure blue) are still flowering away, as are some of the roses. Every garden should have them.
A glorious autumn day here. A bit cold. But wonderful.
We went to that arboretum in the cotswolds you mentioned a while back. My wife was pretty enraptured and even I found the time there flew by. We drew a nice day too which was fortunate.
Looks like Kast is going to win the first round in Chile. Runoff unclear though. Pre-election polls showed him winning the first round by about this much and having a narrow advantage in the December runoff.
My geranium 'Rozanne' and Salvia Uliginosa (the most glorious azure blue) are still flowering away, as are some of the roses. Every garden should have them.
A glorious autumn day here. A bit cold. But wonderful.
We went to that arboretum in the cotswolds you mentioned a while back. My wife was pretty enraptured and even I found the time there flew by. We drew a nice day too which was fortunate.
Glad you enjoyed it.
I recently visited an arboretum that a retired art historian is creating in Beckermet, not far from Sellafield on the coast. Some beautiful specimens but it is quite the labour of love as it gets very windy and not all the trees survive.
Husband recently met with Piet Oudolf, the famous Dutch gardener, who is looking to create something special in our town. I am learning about the different sorts of plants you need to grow in an area which can be both windy and is near to the sea. When you walk along the coast you see some lovely coastal plants, beautifully adapted to their environment.
Looks like Kast is going to win the first round in Chile. Runoff unclear though. Pre-election polls showed him winning the first round by about this much and having a narrow advantage in the December runoff.
Yes, 28-24 or so. The next 3 all on about 12. Sichel (centre-right) has conceded defeat and said he certainly won't support the far-left Boric (not a surprise), though hasn't yet confirmed he'll back the far-right Kast. do we know which way Parisi and Provoste lean?
Certainly seems polarised to an extent that makes Trump vs Biden look a positively cuddly election contest. Literally neo-fascist vs neo-communist, with everyone else trailing.
Looks like Kast is going to win the first round in Chile. Runoff unclear though. Pre-election polls showed him winning the first round by about this much and having a narrow advantage in the December runoff.
Yes, 28-24 or so. The next 3 all on about 12. Sichel (centre-right) has conceded defeat and said he certainly won't support the far-left Boric (not a surprise), though hasn't yet confirmed he'll back the far-right Kast. do we know which way Parisi and Provoste lean?
Certainly seems polarised to an extent that makes Trump vs Biden look a positively cuddly election contest. Literally neo-fascist vs neo-communist, with everyone else trailing.
Provoste (populist) has ruled out supporting "fascist" Kast and will consider endorsing Boric. if he does, and Sichel endorses Kast, that potentially adds 12 to both of them. The Kasy-Boric gap has narrowed to less than 3 points, as Boric is getting about 4 points more than the polls predicted. There are other minor candidates (including one Judean Front-style "Proletarian Action" candidate on 1.4% who thinks Boric isn't communist enough)
Looks like Kast is going to win the first round in Chile. Runoff unclear though. Pre-election polls showed him winning the first round by about this much and having a narrow advantage in the December runoff.
Yes, 28-24 or so. The next 3 all on about 12. Sichel (centre-right) has conceded defeat and said he certainly won't support the far-left Boric (not a surprise), though hasn't yet confirmed he'll back the far-right Kast. do we know which way Parisi and Provoste lean?
Certainly seems polarised to an extent that makes Trump vs Biden look a positively cuddly election contest. Literally neo-fascist vs neo-communist, with everyone else trailing.
Provoste (populist) has ruled out supporting "fascist" Kast and will consider endorsing Boric. if he does, and Sichel endorses Kast, that potentially adds 12 to both of them. The Kasy-Boric gap has narrowed to less than 3 points, as Boric is getting about 4 points more than the polls predicted. There are other minor candidates (including one Judean Front-style "Proletarian Action" candidate on 1.4% who thinks Boric isn't communist enough)
Bloody Chile. A tragedy. Everything changed with Pinochet.
Looks like Kast is going to win the first round in Chile. Runoff unclear though. Pre-election polls showed him winning the first round by about this much and having a narrow advantage in the December runoff.
Yes, 28-24 or so. The next 3 all on about 12. Sichel (centre-right) has conceded defeat and said he certainly won't support the far-left Boric (not a surprise), though hasn't yet confirmed he'll back the far-right Kast. do we know which way Parisi and Provoste lean?
Certainly seems polarised to an extent that makes Trump vs Biden look a positively cuddly election contest. Literally neo-fascist vs neo-communist, with everyone else trailing.
Provoste (populist) has ruled out supporting "fascist" Kast and will consider endorsing Boric. if he does, and Sichel endorses Kast, that potentially adds 12 to both of them. The Kasy-Boric gap has narrowed to less than 3 points, as Boric is getting about 4 points more than the polls predicted. There are other minor candidates (including one Judean Front-style "Proletarian Action" candidate on 1.4% who thinks Boric isn't communist enough)
I know nothing about either candidates but why is Kast being called "fascist" by Provoste? Glancing at his Wikipedia page, that doesn't seem to be a typical remark about him?
Is it just a case of certain people calling anyone they dislike "fascist"? Or has he done something to deserve being called that?
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.
Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.
I'm afraid that we may need to accept that the true proportion of the country vaccinated is closer to 20% i.e. those triple jabbed and even then it's not foolproof. Rich Preston, the senior reporter and anchor for BBC world news has just test positive and he's triple jabbed, wears mask everywhere and observes social distancing.
We have a long way still to go with this pandemic. At least 2 years. This winter will be tough for everyone in Europe, including the UK.
Sorry. Wish it were not so, believe me.
Likely to be as accurate as your predictions of October lockdown, for one very good reason.
It doesn't matter if you test positive if you are not going to become seriously ill as a result. That's what vaccines, even just one or two doses, have been very good at. They don't stop you getting it, but they do cut the likelihood of getting ill by an order of magnitude.
That's why Austria is locking down and we're not.
Complacency has bitten us on the behind every time.
I didn't predict an October lockdown anywhere. Ever. I said preparations were being made for that contingency in Gov't departments, which they were. So I was right.
And my actual prediction was that this winter I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit 100,000 cases a day. Which we will.
That's a silly 'insight'. Of course the Civil Service has contingencies, every statement out of gov mentions a possible new variant turning up which would screw us again.
I think a reasonable worst case scenario with Delta for two weeks after Christmas is cases roughly double what they are now.
Whether we need new measures depends on flu etc and general tolerance for lockdown. This is the fun bit of winter - Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Christmas, Hogmanay, Burns night. It's then completely rubbish until May (April if lucky).
Halloween and Guy Fawkes Night are in winter.
News to me.
You really do learn something new every day on PB.
....
My point is the part of the year where you walk home from work in the dark is interrupted by a series of fun holidays.
I find spring (particularly last year) takes way longer to arrive than you expect, and that's exactly when we may have to lock down again.
The end of January is always the worst time of year. Dismal weather, short days and nothing to look forward to for a while.
Quite. We need another Xmas round about the end of Feb.
We need a Carnival, as in so many Catholic countries. Celebrate the actual or imminent end of Winter. Late feb
We would have to become Roman Catholic again first.
Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.
Looks like Kast is going to win the first round in Chile. Runoff unclear though. Pre-election polls showed him winning the first round by about this much and having a narrow advantage in the December runoff.
Yes, 28-24 or so. The next 3 all on about 12. Sichel (centre-right) has conceded defeat and said he certainly won't support the far-left Boric (not a surprise), though hasn't yet confirmed he'll back the far-right Kast. do we know which way Parisi and Provoste lean?
Certainly seems polarised to an extent that makes Trump vs Biden look a positively cuddly election contest. Literally neo-fascist vs neo-communist, with everyone else trailing.
Provoste (populist) has ruled out supporting "fascist" Kast and will consider endorsing Boric. if he does, and Sichel endorses Kast, that potentially adds 12 to both of them. The Kasy-Boric gap has narrowed to less than 3 points, as Boric is getting about 4 points more than the polls predicted. There are other minor candidates (including one Judean Front-style "Proletarian Action" candidate on 1.4% who thinks Boric isn't communist enough)
Bloody Chile. A tragedy. Everything changed with Pinochet.
Gawd, don't get the Pinochet was actually a good thing lads started. Will make Hitler was a lefty evening look positively cerebral.
Just saw a fantastic exhibition at the British Library - Elizabeth & Mary Queen of Scots.
Really superb - had an hour there and only got about halfway around. Will even go back (which I rarely do) to see it again.
Lots of documents I’ve only seen in books before.
Highly highly recommended. Open til February
Genuine question, what's the social distancing etc like in there? I might find time to visit.
Mostly good although there were some exhibits with 2-3 people looking at the same time
Steer clear of the Nat History and Science Museums then! Went the week before half term, was a total scrum of the kind that I’ve only experienced when Beijing’s domestic terminal delayed every flight for 12 hours.
Think Boris is doomed., especially if he loses or just squeezes home in one or both of the coming by elections
Tories should be careful what they wish for.
Boris with the right campaign will still reach voters no other Tory will.
Next GE will return another Tory Majority under Boris
Without Boris even PM SKS is a possibility.
I think that is a very good point Big John. People who havn’t voted Conservative or not for a long time like Boris. I mean they really do. If they are deprived of voting for him is there a price to be paid - I like Boris what did you do that to him for, so I don’t like you Conservatives now because of it.
People calling London a "shitheap". Surely some mistake? London is a great World City - arguable the best city in the World. Places like Scunthorpe, Hartlepool, Middlesborough are the real shitheaps - miserable places with miserable uneducated bigotted trash who reside there?
What a disgusting post
Ordinary hard working people with families live in these areas and are the salt of the earth
Who on earth do you think you are
Are you going to call out Yduffer for calling London a shit heap though? (you don't have to, of course, because we all know it isn't).
The difference is between calling London a shitheap (I live in London but prefer the country, but it’s not a shitheap IMV) and being offensive about the people who live there.
There are parts of central London which are absolutely world class - I really enjoy visits. And not just the bustling bits, there are some genuinely quiet neighbourhoods inside the circle line But the surrounding endless grim suburbia is seriously grim. Some of it painfully so, made worse by the absurd money that is asked of people to live there.
When Charles says 'London' he's thinking of the view over Regent's Park from St John's Wood, not of Ilford or Edmonton or Peckham or Hounslow.
I'd rather live in Peckham than St John's Wood. I virtually do live in Peckham in fact, SE15 is just a couple of streets over. Suburbia isn't grim, it's an oasis of parks and gardens, with thriving communities, friendly neighbours, decent schools, independent shops and restaurants, a plethora of activities for children, a thriving arts scene and reasonable commutes to work in Central London. It's only over priced because it's popular. The only thing that could improve London? If we could spend more of our money on London and less on subsidising people whose main leisure activity is sagging off London.
The old chestnut that London funds the rest of the country rather than the reality that it sucks the life blood out of it and no matter how much is spent there compared to the rest of the country the selfish arseholes are never happy. Full of me me me parasites and bloodsuckers.
The numbers speak for themselves. Londoners pay thousands of pounds more in tax than they receive back in government spending. That's just a fact, sorry if it's inconvenient. I'm very happy. I don't even mind subsidising the rest of the country. I'm not from London, I still have plenty of love for the rest of the UK, including the country of my birth (the same one as yours). I'm just sick of being told how awful we are and what a shit hole I live in by people who are taking my money.
I don't mind the people in London. It's just the city itself is awful. Look at it with a cold eye. Unplanned, appallingly cramped, mostly full of third-rate Victorian architecture, overpriced, brutally congested, dirty, noisy and smelly, full of restaurants that offer food no better than anywhere else in the country but provide half the quantity at double the price - if I'm honest, that's particularly what I remember about being an impoverished student there.
That's even before we get on to the issue of its woefully inadequate utilities network, which means it is chronically short of water, and the bizarre public transport system which nobody would probably use if it wasn't for the fact the roads are so twisty it takes even longer to walk than to take the sardine can, er, underground.
(Your other point is wrong as well, incidentally, as the town I work in is a net contributor to the treasury, so I'm not taking your money.)
If you like it, fine. You're welcome. Means I don't have to live there, which I'm even happier about because it's just not a nice place to be.
Edit - I will admit I do find it annoying when people preach at me that I should love London because it 'subsidises everywhere else.' From that point of view, you should love all farmers in Oxfordshire because they allow the residue from your treated sewage to be spread on their fields. Or the people of the Thames Valley for providing you with water.
I don't want love, indifference would be fine. It's the constant compulsive slagging off of London by people who don't live in London, don't know London and seem convinced that London is leeching off them that I find so monumentally boring, especially as there are things in London that need money spent on them, but apparently there's no money. Most of the horrible things you attribute to London could be applied to more or less every town and city in Britain. We live in a country built by the Victorians in a hurry and on the cheap and have been living with the consequences ever since.
London's most immediate problem (and it's one that is going to scare Khan and TFL in the new future) is that there is no way Boris can agree to given TFL the money it needs to survive now.
So TFL is going to have to start working out how to rapidly cut costs...
Separately, the whole point of investing up North is that for a one off sum of money (albeit a lot) is that by making the north more efficient there should would be more tax revenue generated up north.
Perhaps a serendipitous kick up the Rs will encourage Mayor Sadiq to discover some appropropriate moral courage, and first of all follow Paris in dealing with inefficiency in the tube system, and then to address the phalanxes of overpaid managers in TFL.
All that requires is rebuilding the underground to allow barriers between the train and track - which costs big money (and remember there is NO money).
Comments
Boris will not cancel Christmas itself.
There will be an inevitable spike in admissions two weeks after Christmas. The size of this spike is unknown, but is still the most obvious time for a panicked Boris to go for another lockdown.
I suppose you think that just because they want to self-identify as locomotives then that is fine.
Incidentally, apropos of nothing, the best typo I ever read was in a book on Victorian morality, where the 1861 Sexual Offences Act prohibited sex acts between 'consulting male auditors.'
Goodness only knows how both autocorrect came up with it and the proof reader missed it.
Only time I was thrown out of the Hugh Owen Library at Aber, because I was laughing so much somebody complained.
Gove doesn't count.
Auditors in sexual congress is definitely a matter for preventive legislation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-S_rY7QO0hg
Carnival in Catholic countries traditionally is a final feast and party and parades before Lent arrives.
For which we already have Shrove Tuesday
https://twitter.com/franknewall/status/1462511982888816654?s=20
(Relatedly, I was wandering round my garden this afternoon and neither my geraniums nor my honeysuckle had given up on the flowering thing. That's not right, is it?)
I've brought the geraniums in but one frost apart I probably didn't need to.
At least if you are an accountant you can be some practical use to people. I haven't been able to find a good accountant, I end up employing idiots; I have to check every single thing that they tell me on google and half the time they are telling me the wrong thing.
Excess figures do rise and fall with case numbers, hospitalisations and 28 day deaths, even going negative at some points. If it were due to neglected other conditions then there would be a different pattern.
It may well be that there is no real alternative to these deaths, but denying that they relate to covid just isn't plausible.
Maybe what we need is to go back to the idea of Christmas starting, not ending on December 25. And let it roll on to Candlemas, February 2.
Are people leaving Lewes or Rutland (Band D £2,189 and £2,194 respectively) to go and live in Westminster or Wandsworth (Band D £829 and £845)?
Arnside Knott, today, for sunset. One of the best sunsets I have seen in my life: the shallow waters and wet sands of Morecambe Bay like a polished bronze mirror. The woods around the top of the hill aflame with November russets and browns. The wide estuary of the Kent with the silhouettes of the Lakeland Fells behind. And then, dusk,then darkness, and an almost-full moon rising in the east, improbably large, impossibly bright.
The pie I had in the pub was a bit disappointing mind. One of those pies which is really just a stew with a puff pastry lid. Good sticky toffee pudding though to round it off.
Be interesting to see how eg. statutory gender balance in Parliament and caps on second/holiday homes is actually implemented in practice. Also how "homelessness" is being defined to allow it to be "ended" (link talks about a responsibility regardless of "priority need", but at the moment people are assessed as having priority need which gives local authorities a responsibility to house them - but officially, whilst they remain in temporary accommodation they are still officially homeless).
Eric Topol
@EricTopol
·
2h
How to generate a new surge?
Have 40% of Americans not fully vaccinated, and another 40% vaccinated but waned (past 6 months).
"Northern Ireland to Scotland bridge plans scrapped"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59368707
Don't get me wrong: pancakes are a fine thing. But it's hardly four days of debauchery without sleeping in your own bed a la Binche.
I
But many of the problems - exhaustion, low morale, a long backlog (although they are working through it very fast) won’t be solved by a small reduction in the number of cases.
Unfortunately we just need to get through the winter and then give people a long break.
But compulsory medical treatments have a very high bar. And compulsory vaccination action is currently illegal so would need primary legislation
TL;DR version: a traditional day (noon to noon) is only 24 hours on average over a year (hence the “Mean” in GMT).
Edit: ellipse, not eclipse!
I was about to recommend the Kingfisher but have just seen that it shut down in the summer.
Presumably as fast as possible before rebellion grows.
Just multiply it, commercialize it mercilessly, who cares. Have Valentine parties. Orgies. Drugs. Dances. Poems. Job done
Just saw a fantastic exhibition at the British Library - Elizabeth & Mary Queen of Scots.
Really superb - had an hour there and only got about halfway around. Will even go back (which I rarely do) to see it again.
Lots of documents I’ve only seen in books before.
Highly highly recommended. Open til February
Or the Paterson scandal.
Or the Brilliant Brexit Deal.
Surely there is a sufficiency of Conservative MPs who can see how this plays out?
plus less time to plot on whatsapp.
Of course it may be different in Scotland when winter extends cleverly into summer, and often skips summer entirely
Latest sunrise, shortest day and earliest sunset happen at different times, because of the complicated orbital stuff. Earliest sunset is around 12 December, but the latest sunrise isn't until about 30 December. Which is why mornings in early January are so rubbish.
We can only flip to BST once there's enough spare daylight early in the morning to safely snaffle some of it for the evening, and that takes until late March. At the start of March, sunrise in London is only about 6.45 am, and we wouldn't really want to push it back to 7.45 am.
A glorious autumn day here. A bit cold. But wonderful.
"Most of all, however, I am now beaten back, exhausted, worn down by the continuous stream of people that we battle to treat when they have consciously passed up the opportunity to save themselves."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/21/icu-is-full-of-the-unvaccinated-my-patience-with-them-is-wearing-thin?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Same last year - right thru until mid December.
This "gender critical" bloke goes to the pub and starts chatting up the barmaid.
"I've got the prostate, I've got the place. You've got the cervix, you've got the face. Let's get together the 2 of us over a glass of champagne"
No? 🙂
I recently visited an arboretum that a retired art historian is creating in Beckermet, not far from Sellafield on the coast. Some beautiful specimens but it is quite the labour of love as it gets very windy and not all the trees survive.
Husband recently met with Piet Oudolf, the famous Dutch gardener, who is looking to create something special in our town. I am learning about the different sorts of plants you need to grow in an area which can be both windy and is near to the sea. When you walk along the coast you see some lovely coastal plants, beautifully adapted to their environment.
Certainly seems polarised to an extent that makes Trump vs Biden look a positively cuddly election contest. Literally neo-fascist vs neo-communist, with everyone else trailing.
For one of the very few modern buildings up there with the best of the best. Coventry Cathedral is another.
Is it just a case of certain people calling anyone they dislike "fascist"? Or has he done something to deserve being called that?
Both parties are more fractured than we think
BY ERIC KAUFMANN"
https://unherd.com/2021/11/how-the-democrats-could-split/
Too much waffle
Boris with the right campaign will still reach voters no other Tory will.
Next GE will return another Tory Majority under Boris
Without Boris even PM SKS is a possibility.
LU has many different lines at their own levels of automation, run largely separately.
There are plenty of opportunities to improve, and many have been there for decades - waiting to be addressed.