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A CON election majority down to a 36% chance in the betting – politicalbetting.com
A CON election majority down to a 36% chance in the betting – politicalbetting.com
We have not looked at this betting chart for some time but clearly the chances of Johnson getting a second successive majority have taken a hit in recent months and are now at their lowest point since March. There is a similar pattern in the Johnson exit date betting.
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For that 16% to make sense the chance of a Tory majority needs to be about 10% not 36%.
Tory majority, 70%
No overall majority, 20%
Labour majority, 10%
In other news, the financial times unearthed this gem of a political study from 2009: https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/59819
Key line "we find that serving in office almost doubled the wealth of Conservative MPs, but had no discernible financial benefits for Labour MPs."
I expect this to be used quite a bit
https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/657539020533145600?t=XiTEb_nxdvrX5IXcSgGyaA&s=19
Where are those 119 seats, given Labours issues in Scotland (which previously sent 50+ labour MPs into Parliament) they just don't exist.
This is not 1992-1997. I also cannot see any other Tory leader doing any better than Boris apart from maybe Sunak but while he might have more appeal than Boris in London and the South and Scotland I don't think he would have the same appeal Boris has in the Redwall.
https://twitter.com/darrenmccaffrey/status/1461628726777683972?s=20
NOM 50%
Labour majority 0%
No Scotland, no Labour majority.
My predictions would be
Increased Tory majority 20%
Smaller Tory majority 55%
NOM 20%
Labour majority 5%
Interesting thought, how much will this subject feature in the next election. Not very much is my prediction.
It would require both a Tory and SNP implosion. Can’t see both happening.
I reckon NOM is misunderestimated.
BREAK: 🇦🇹Austria will enter a fourth nationwide lockdown from Monday for twenty days, and impose compulsory vaccination from February, as a surge in #coronavirus cases threatens to overwhelm hospitals (via Bloomberg)
https://twitter.com/darrenmccaffrey/status/1461628726777683972
Forget about the lockdown, what about the compulsory vaccinations? That is quite some step! How are they going to force people?
Do you know what it means ?
It means when someone does something which is popular with 'people like them' instead of 'people like me'.
The 'people like them' and 'people like me' varying from individual to individual.
Presumably they'll be stopping people in the street to check their credentials and arresting the unjabbed.
I think there's a 3/4 chance of a Tory majority, but the reason I think that if there isn't a Tory majority there's a 1/5 chance of there being a Labour majority is that for the Tories to lose their majority requires such a substantial swing that if such a swing is happening there must be a chance of it swinging even further to the point that Labour majority is suddenly back in contention.
From Feb 1 next year all Austrians will be obliged to have both jabs. Those who refuse could face heavy fines
65% of Austrians are fully jabbed
I’m sure this will be challenged in court - maybe even the European Court of Justice…
Would compulsory vaccination be against EU law?
https://twitter.com/darrenmccaffrey/status/1461630281094422531
In the absence of an obviously vastly superior alternative I think replacing him now would do more harm than good, but if he's not PM after the next GE I would replace him ASAP.
So that 16% looks a bit high to me, although I guess it's just the fat tail when you've got someone erratic like Johnson in charge of the Tories - they could completely implode and at that point SKS's dullness may not even matter. He's not unelectable, and even Corbyn, who was, almost got elected!
According to the latest Redfield and Wilton 35% of voters think Boris would be a better PM than Sunak, including 55% of 2019 Conservative voters who think that, to only 33% who think Sunak would be better. Sunak does beat Boris 40% to 21% with 2019 Labour voters and 53% to 17% with 2019 LD voters but barely any of them will vote Tory anyway next time whoever leads the Tories.
Boris also leads Starmer as best PM by 9%, Sunak only leads Starmer as best PM by 5%
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-15-november-2021/
The other racial epithets I used at the time were not intentionally racist, they were just the terms everyone used that I knew and I never thought about it - but at the same time it didn't mean we thought people from outside the village weren't inferior, they obviously were as they weren't "English" (ie like everyone else we knew). For people under 50 it might be hard to imagine a country where everybody looked the same and being 'mediterranean' was exotic but that's how it was for me.
Now, I am married to a jewish woman from Odessa, live abroad (from a UK perspective - it's home to me and England is now slowly starting to feel foreign) and spend a lot of time being the strange foreigner (outside Copenhagen there aren't many British people in Denmark).
Do I regret or feel apologetic about being a young boy in an England that now only exists in my memory?- I suppose I do, but not sure why - my intent was never bad but I certainly beleived some undoubtedly racist things at the time. But I grew, found out more about the world and over time realised there are c*nts of all creeds and colours and political leanings. I just ry these days not to be one, but am sure I fail in that for some people.
And your Labour majority figure is 5% too high.
I feel silly sending it in right now during this maelstrom though so was waiting for it to blow over.
To win without inroads in Scotland, Labour maybe need to be outpolling the Tories by >10 points.
They're obviously not doing that now, but it is possible come the next general election.
A lot depends on how the SNP fare in Scotland certainly. I don't claim any great knowledge of Scottish politics, but the SNP looks less united than it was in 2019, and given Labour only won 1 seat last time, it feels like hopefully there is room to improve!
A fellow Sheffield resident notes on her Facebook she’s seen an ad saying Boris Johnson is happy to give tens of billions to his mates for crap PPE and Test & Trace but not a few billions to help improve Yorkshire’s transport.
My Labour 0% is based on fact. And fact that is unlikely to change. The current direction of travel for the Tories is down, which is why your prediction of a Tory increased majority appears counter intuitive. When things change. Boris invents another vaccine, or Sunak replaces Johnson, maybe you wishful prediction will be borne out by the odds.
The only differences being which people they are trying to appeal to and which 'elites' they are trying to whip up fury against.
"I still think we are round about peak Johnson. Wallpapergate still has the potential to turn into a lying to the house, breaching ministerial code, resigning sort of issue. Cummings still has things to say on the 26th. SKS looks vulnerable where Johnson wants him securely in place. Vaccine gratitude wears off. A high peak is still a peak."
Wrong in every detail, right taken as a whole.
https://www.liverpoolfc.com/fans/fan-experience/getting-to-anfield/stadium-checklist
Make sure you allow enough time for any necessary security checks which may include random searches. Small personal bags are permitted - please ensure your bags are no larger than A5 and only one bag per person is allowed. It is advised you only bring a bag if it is absolutely essential, please see our checklist of what can/cannot be brought in to the stadium here.
Arsenal tried to do something similar at the start of the season (you could only use a clear bag purchased from the Arsenal shop for £1), but thankfully enough fans kicked off that they reverted to allowing reasonable sized rucksacks in.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/nov/18/im-fully-booked-but-cant-take-on-jobs-a-builder-on-life-without-eu-workers
He laments he cannot now 'get a cousin over for a few months' and has had to raise wages.
Also wonders why young people don't want to work in construction.
Perhaps because for over a decade wages were suppressed by people getting a cousin over for a few months.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/nov/19/it-puts-more-pressure-on-the-remaining-staff-you-have-to-divide-the-work-a-spice-importer-on-life-without-eu-workers
You also cannot go to sporting events or into restaurants or bars without a vaccination certificate.
It's a de facto ban on the unvaccinated.
But it's still not as draconian as what is proposed in Austria.
This requires a Black Swan. About 26 of their top 150 targets are held by the SNP. Among their top 150 targets (statistically) are seats they will never win - Hexham for example, or Rushcliffe, or Macclesfield. All their top 150 are held by Tories or SNP.
Their Black Swan requires the following:
SNP to lose ground to Labour
The Tories to lose more or less the entire red wall
The Tories to lose seats to Labour they have never lost in modern times, including in the south - such as Basingstoke.
While Labour leading the next government is easy - it's about a 50% chance - actually winning remains out of sight for now.
The club have offered £2 pints and cheaper food to allow the fans to get to the ground earlier.
But the teething problems aren’t as bad as they were in July/August.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/liverpool-kick-off-delayed-breaking-21258992.amp
Labour 0% is not fact. 0% means its impossible and never say never.
With a 1997-style swing (unlikely but possible) then Labour could gain a majority via English and Welsh seats, while picking up a handful of Scottish ones. Is that likely? No. Is it possible? Yes - and if its possible its not 0%
Overturning the Tory majority is going to take such a large swing that an overshoot into Labour majority is possible.
"It’s true to say that what links the Conservative electoral coalition, from the wealthy pensioner who owns outright in Surrey to the young family in Derby with a Help to Buy mortgage to the retiree in social housing Hartlepool is that they are beneficiaries from the era of ultra-low interest rates and low inflation. It is also true to say that they are also, in many ways, voters who benefit in economic stagnation rather than necessarily higher growth which might mean higher inflation and therefore an end to the age of low rates.
But if you have to start, for whatever reason, eating into that coalition, be it because of inflation or because you are raising taxes, then things get gnarlier, both for households and the government. And one way to get out of that if you don’t want to go back into the single market or the customs union is to increase the economic performance of our core cities. There almost certainly isn’t a direct political cost to not doing HS2 and there probably never will be. But an indirect one? Quite possibly."
We have been advised by Liverpool FC that there will be a zero-bag policy enforced (with the exception of medical bags) for supporters entering the stadium on Saturday, November 20, 2021.
There will be no bag drop/storage facility at the stadium so please avoid bringing a bag with you as you will be refused entry.
Not a problem for me as I drive to away games outside of London, but it's not great that away fans are being discriminated against in this way.
Labour need a 10% swing however ie double that, for a Labour overall majority of 1 without major Labour gains in Scotland
NOM (47%)
Labour majority (326+) 7%
Tory or Tory led NOM government 47%
Labour led NOM government; 46%
Labour government 7%.
And then, as Austria enters another lockdown, I am able to look forward to visiting my daughter in Bath. If Covid transitions to becoming primarily a foreign news story this winter that will have an impact.
Starmer wanted the London terminus to be at Old Oak Common.
So he's even more of an idiot than those running the show now.
@JuliaHB1
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BREAKING: Austria to go into full lockdown on Monday as Covid surges - and jabs to be COMPULSORY from Feb.
Are you still confident that it's all over and this could never happen here? Really? Are you *sure* about that?
It never ends until we say it does
===
Well, I'm certainly not totally confident it wont happen here. But remain reasonably optimistic. I think there's less chance of a lurch in that direction with Javid than Hancock at NHS.
I've got logic for why I think it is a real possibility. I might submit my draft to TSE and see if he thinks its worth publishing.
"Azeem Rafiq, the Yorkshire offspinner, has been suspended from all cricket for one month and ordered to pay costs of £500 after being found guilty of two breaches of the ECB Directive following his foul-mouthed Twitter attack on the England Under-19 coach John Abraham.
Rafiq, who captained England to a 199-run defeat in the first Test against Sri Lanka U19s, reacted to his omission from the second match at Scarborough (which England won) by firing a scathing attack on Abraham via Twitter, which read: "What a f***ing farsee ... John Abrahams is a useless ****... ECB prove it again what incompetent people are working for them!!"
And he hadn't finished there when he added: "John Abrahams is a useless w****r.""
I guess a "farsee" is a misspelt "farce", and not some racial slur I've never heard?
If this was how the guy behaved when he'd made it into the England set up, was his lack of further progression primarily down to cricket's institutional racism or was it down to his own dickishness?
I doubt the government meant it, but the sleaze and rail stories have actually been brilliant in diverting attention from COVID. Is this the longest we've gone without COVID being the main story in the UK?
Our system of democracy is/was representative, and therefore we delegate responsibility to politicians in the hope that they will investigate the issues and do what is right, not do what they hope will get a response from the public's baser instincts.
40% - NOM
0% - Labour majority
IMO
Those who don't think about things like that aren't being more clever by being so dismissive. There are multiple Rumsfeldian known knowns and known unknowns in play that we can factor into our thinking, even if there are unknown unknowns we need to be wary of.
“Dwo Dickets for Dottingham” - give the man a Tune!
He said he was Labour leader in 2018 there - I knew 2019 was his fault!!!
“Rafiq’s county, Yorkshire, had already suspended the player indefinitely for his outburst, with Stewart Regan, the chief executive, stating: "Azeem's behaviour was totally unacceptable and the club will not tolerate it. Our professional players are role models to aspiring young cricketers and need to behave as such."
Cons +1
Labour -1
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1461640353166077957?t=tRjLJl5zpB5Nj5PBHnxiSw&s=19
Starmer by contrast can only get better. He's got a long way to go and there's plenty to work on. He particularly needs some decent writers to sharpen up his act but there are plenty of them out there and I'll be surprised if we aren't looking at a very different Starmer in six months time.
The main thing is that he looks and sounds honest. Johnson to me looks finished
So Boris could stay PM with DUP support
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=36&LAB=34&LIB=7&Reform=5&Green=10&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=22.3&SCOTLAB=18.3&SCOTLIB=6.3&SCOTReform=0.7&SCOTGreen=0.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48.3&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Robert Jordan had such a condition on his Wheel of Time series. The licence was sold to a rather dodgy firm (that he regretted until he died) and they didn't get anywhere on dealing with it so in a rather dickish move they released a "pilot" for a first episode in the dead of night on the day of the deadline. The "pilot" was truly awful apparently but it was only done in order to prevent the licence from lapsing.
Bin him off, make a public sweep of the worst of the corruption, ping money parcels at the right people and the right places and they can do it. Or, keep him and see their turnout drop enough to throw scores of seats over to Labour / LibDem / SNP.
But… on the day I received my third vaccine (this week), there had been just 13 million third doses.
If top up vaccines turn out to be a necessary tool in preventing further restrictions then that stat isn’t immediately promising.
Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister? (17-18 Nov)
Keir Starmer: 30% (+1 from 10-11 Nov)
Boris Johnson: 28% (+1)
Not sure: 37%
I thought that, and that the Zoroastrian Persian Mumbai community are the Parsis which is from the same source, but couldn't imagine how it could be linked to John Abraham of England U19s..
There's a Bollywood actor called John Abraham whose mother is a Keralan Parsi, but it can't be that!
They need Scotland. And I cannot see how they get it back, at least not yet. All political parties falter eventually, but I don't see how the SNP landslide reverses bigly within the next 2 years.
I was thinking along the lines of authors building self-defence from cancelling culture into future contracts. i.e. if I get cancelled by any organization that uses my contents rights then they immediate lapse back to me.
I guess legally one would need a strong definition of "cancelled". I suspect not being invited to the 20th anniversary celebration of the thing you created would count.
It's this which is the killer blow for the tories currently. It's nothing to do with Boris Johnson's morality: most of us are only too aware that he isn't fit to be Prime Minister, isn't fit to lead his party, and cannot organise a piss up in brewery.
In short, he doesn't have the capacity to lead his party to another victory. In peaceful meandering times he'd probably have got away with it for two or even three terms. With everything which has gone on he's been exposed in two or three years.
The Conservative Party has a straightforward choice. Soldier on with Bojo and lose the next General Election, which they will, and leave power under another 1997-type pall that will take them two decades to recover from.
Or ditch the clown and at least have a chance. But doing that will also risk internecine warfare of the type which rarely plays out well with the electorate.
HS2 in already being built - so given that you may as well get on with it and build it properly.
Your argument really, doesn't work when Camden is (as Leon has pointed out on here before) already an HS2 building site...
Tory splits over recent missteps by Johnson are currently to the fore, but I don't think more fundamental splits within Labour have gone away.
Not much meaningful change in this week's YouGov poll for The Times – Tories regain a negligible lead
CON 36 (+1)
LAB 34 (-1)
LIB DEM 7 (-1)
GREEN 10 (nc)
REF UK 5 (+1)
CON 2019 now Labour: 4 per cent
CON 2019 now undecided: 17 per cent (-5 on last week)"
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1461610988969545730