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Date for your diary: PB Gathering – Feb 3rd 2022 – politicalbetting.com
Date for your diary: PB Gathering – Feb 3rd 2022 – politicalbetting.com
It has been a long time coming but I am delighted to announce that the first PB Gathering since before GE2017 is scheduled to take place on February 3rd next year.
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I've got a 5 quid Paddy Power shop voucher to use (from saturdays Daily Star)
I don't have my free bus travel card yet so I need a horsey to bet on tomorrow.
Any help Team PB?
I understand:
** There were suggestions that the Tories would try and vote on this lobbying ban as soon as tomorrow
** There is a huge backlash, 1922 involved, over breadth of what's being proposed. (What is "reasonable")
** No decision available yet over what happens tomorrow
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1460663310051856385
I don't totally mind the chance view, and in fact I think I might have suggested it if I hadn't bet before. However the BF solution seems more comfortable.
Also do smarkets (or BF) offer a service to alert you as to new political markets (or others, but I really only bet on politics)?
"Some of the VIP lane companies have close links with Conservative party politicians. Take PPE Medpro. The company was founded by the former business associate of Conservative Peer Baroness Mone. It won two huge contracts, worth £200 million, just weeks after it was set up."
...
"Michael Gove referred Meller Designs, the firm of Conservative donor David Meller, to the VIP lane. The company subsequently landed over £160 million in PPE deals."
"Lord Feldman referred SG Recruitment, amongst others, to the VIP lane. The Conservative Peer Lord Chadlington sits on the Board of its parent company, Sumner Group Holdings Limited. They landed £50 million in PPE contracts.
Dominic Cummings is named as the referrer of Global United Trading. The company landed a £350k PPE contract."
Seems a pretty clear cut case of a smear to me.
On topic: sounds good
Chris Bryant has just said on the BBC that his committee will make recommendations before Christmas and therefore what standing does tomorrow's vote have with that committee's recommendations
I really do not understand that if the vote passes tomorrow that surely becomes mandated into the process
They also need to reinforce loudly that this proposal by Boris was forced on him by Labour pressure. That will really rile up the backbenchers.
On topic I quite fancy going to the social, assuming relative newcomers are welcome.
Yes. I hadn’t looked at it yet today, still catching up on sleep from weekend this afternoon.
Winter race day at Hexham and the weather is dry. The fastest horse will win.
3pm HEART OF KERNOW
Both Stanley and Boris have been accused of inappropriate groping, and Stanley’s accuser is highly credible. I do not know enough about Boris’s accuser to form a view.
All I mean to say is that when Stanley is accused of groping, it reminds me again of Boris’s own sleaziness, regardless of whether he is also a groper.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidents_Club
If that's not sleaze what is?
Sam Coates Sky
@SamCoatesSky
·
3m
The government WILL put forward a motion tomorrow.
This will apparently mirror the language of the PM's letter - and so apparently toughen up Labour proposal
We await the exact working of the motion...
On this I wish Boris well and hope the party can find it in themselves to deselect some of the dinosaurs whose time has gone
I would just comment that I understand that the proposals are not retrospective
Larceny on such a scale it’s kind of hard to compute.
VIP channel indeed.
I wonder if any of those VIP firms were based in Middlesbrough.
Boris has decided he made a mighty fuck-up the other week and now has no choice but to propose this spartan new measure, desperately hoping to draw a line.
Everything we know about Boris tell us that he has had to be dragged kicking and screaming to this point, and I fully expect him to vote in any motion with both of his fingers crossed behind his back.
Except when they seem bloody similar, which is my point!
All leaders seem to have embarassing relatives, but Boris appears to want to mimic his in certain respects.
That would be brilliant at starting a new traditional procedure thing for how to change Prime Ministers 🥾
They all seem pretty shabby.
A good friend has invited me to a gig by Seth Lakeman tonight, at the Union Chapel, Islington. That's one of my favourite musicians in one of my favourite venues. I've never seen him live. And I could do with a gig
And yet, I'm 5 and a half months post 2nd jab. 2 weeks from my booster. Worth the risk?
---- Blockquotes not right, but the start of my comment. Omnium.
If the thing you want is to take the free money and realise it then betting on MoonRabbit's tip is probably a good idea. I would have suggested finding a well traded football match priced around evens and backing a random side.
In doing so you'd be turning your £5 voucher into a little bit less in terms expectaion of real money.
MoonRabbit's tip (so far as current pricing) will most likely lose, but if it wins then you'll have multiplied your stake.
Your main consideration in all of this is why PP are giving you £5. The answer is that they think you're a mug - not just you, anyone that they don't know.
So don't be a mug.
Prince Andrew had a £1.5 million loan from a secretive Luxembourg bank paid off by one of the Conservative Party’s biggest donors while he was a working member of the royal family, it was claimed today.
David Rowland settled the debt at Banque Havilland SA, which his family controls, after banking regulators began an unconnected money laundering review involving “politically exposed people”, the Bloomberg financial news agency reported.
The Duke of York opened an account at the private bank in 2015 and borrowed an average of £125,000 every three months. The loan was extended or increased ten times before the duke requested a further £250,000 for “general working capital and living expenses” in November 2017.
The loan was unsecured and Banque Havilland staff recorded that the loan was “not in line with the risk appetite of the bank”, an internal credit application showed.
The growing debt was approved because it opened up “further business potential with the royal family” and would be honoured by the Queen.
A document seen by Bloomberg records: “While the (increased) loan is unsecured and granted solely against the credibility of the applicant, both his position and that his mother is the sovereign monarch of the United Kingdom should provide access to funds for repayment if need be.”
Eleven days after the final extension, the entire £1.5 million loan was paid off by a Guernsey-registered company controlled by the Rowland family with a payment to the bank’s London branch in December 2017.
Earlier that year Luxembourg bank regulators opened an investigation into Banque Havilland SA which led to a £4 million fine, one of the largest to date.
Andrew, then the government’s special representative for international trade and investment, opened the first branch of Banque Havilland in Luxembourg in 2009. Three years later he opened the bank’s branch in Monaco.
A year after Rowland paid off his loan the duke appeared at the opening ceremony for Banque Havilland’s joint venture with the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund.
Buckingham Palace’s code of conduct says members of the royal family should not accept a gift which “would, or might appear to, place [them] under any obligation to the donor”.
Gifts offered by commercial enterprises in the UK “should normally be declined”, it states. The rules say they “should never accept gifts of money, or money equivalent, in connection with an official engagement or duty”.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-donor-repaid-prince-andrews-1-5m-loan-w7rmljc87
There's so much more I want to say about this story but given my day job I cannot.
Yours sincerely, frequent maskless tube rider, 4.5 months post 2nd jab.
It's weird. Until I got my booster booked I was behaving absolutely normally - going to pubs, restaurants, bars. Travelling all over
Now suddenly my 95% immunity jab is just ten days away, I am nervous again
You may find yourself in the same boat. No one wants to be the soldier shot at 10.58 on November 11, 1918
See also this - https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/qatar-accuses-uk-financier-hiding-evidence-banque-havilland-case
Not good.
Andrew should probably now retire totally and utterly from the public eye, including any ceremonial responsibilities like privy counsellor etc.
So why haven't the 2018 recommendations been implemented by MPs, three years on? I can only guess that with a Tory majority since 2019, and lots of Tory MPs having outside interests, Bryant and his fellow Committee members didn't think they would get through the HoC. Hilariously, the behaviour of the Tories over the Paterson affair now means the recommendations (or something close to them) will get through. The Whips will have to back off completely.
As own goals go, the denouement of this one over the last fortnight has been truly spectacular for the government.
I remain a great fan of Thatcher, even though her son was/is by all accounts a ratbag.
That's standard procedure.
Don’t you agree with the MPs, on something like this you can’t have a back of an envelope by panicking Prime Minster proposal just rushed through so quickly?
The shape of the law, how and by whom it’s policed and punished are probably very nuanced thoughts - the very same questions to solve that kicked all this off in the first place.
If the thing you want is to take the free money and realise it then betting on MoonRabbit's tip is probably a good idea. I would have suggested finding a well traded football match priced around evens and backing a random side.
In doing so you'd be turning your £5 voucher into a little bit less in terms expectaion of real money.
MoonRabbit's tip (so far as current pricing) will most likely lose, but if it wins then you'll have multiplied your stake.
Your main consideration in all of this is why PP are giving you £5. The answer is that they think you're a mug - not just you, anyone that they don't know.
So don't be a mug.
Briskin:
Thanks for the response.
I admit you're logic makes sense. If I didn't have to go into town tomorrow my travel costs would wipe away my profit; but I do have to go into town tomorrow anyway.
Oh - and the terms and conditions say it must be a horsey bet.
So far it's Heart of Kernow for me.
It therefore becomes the debate tomorrow
Any music crowd is going to be a disaster. It'd be a tough call but personally I wouldn't go, and that'd not be for any fears I have about cv - just I think it'd be a little irresponsible to my friends.
Anyway Leon, don't be daft. You'll be fine. The worst that will happen is that you catch covid and get a heavy cold for a few days. But that's not significantly more likely than the chances of catching a heavy cold at a gig pre-covid, and you didn't avoid them for fear of colds.
You're more at risk from getting knocked down on the way there than you are from dying due to catching a disease while you're there that you're vaccinated against.
But then he's New British Folk. So maybe some alt types who refuse the jab
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oRYPigPAgo&list=RD1oRYPigPAgo&start_radio=1
Ignore the terrible cheesy video. They tried to turn him into a rockstar (and failed). Great song
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1460670336362496009?s=20
The other Stanley accuser is Ailbhe Rea, political correspondent at the New Statesman. Who is less credible maybe just on account of who she writes for?
Boris’s accuser was Charlotte Edwardes, who writes for the Times.
Michael Fallon and Damian Green were brought down by similar allegations.
If the thing you want is to take the free money and realise it then betting on MoonRabbit's tip is probably a good idea. I would have suggested finding a well traded football match priced around evens and backing a random side.
In doing so you'd be turning your £5 voucher into a little bit less in terms expectaion of real money.
MoonRabbit's tip (so far as current pricing) will most likely lose, but if it wins then you'll have multiplied your stake.
Your main consideration in all of this is why PP are giving you £5. The answer is that they think you're a mug - not just you, anyone that they don't know.
So don't be a mug.
Jade bit >
You are absolutely right, money back in form of a free bet is not the same as money back.
I think it works the same as reward points at shops, because you feel you are getting something for free you are not shopping around? Does that make sense.
By the same logic, if you don’t want to shop around, it is free? The people deliver my wine boxes, I get tokens I save up and get a free box of wine. Is that not a free box of wine?
The simplest way to explain the behavior of any bureaucratic organization is to assume that it is controlled by a cabal of its enemies.
Thanks for the response.
I admit you're logic makes sense. If I didn't have to go into town tomorrow my travel costs would wipe away my profit; but I do have to go into town tomorrow anyway.
Oh - and the terms and conditions say it must be a horsey bet.
So far it's Heart of Kernow for me.
Edit: Again blockquotes odd. (Below is my comment - Omnium)
Sure. Just remember why you're betting and don't get sucked in. Of course many people here bet very frequently and in quite large sums. Political betting is a pretty minority sport though and there are very few bookmakers that want to take it on. For me it's just a fun thing to do. The political markets (say 'Next PM') are so feindishly complicated and they run for years. I make a very slight profit over the long term, but it's very slight and certainly doesn't recompense the time and effort involved.
That'd make a good pub quiz question.
Better video, even better song.
I've been trying to see him live for about a decade. Various events got in the way. I shall go, and if I get fatal Covid I will send you all the funeral bills, but also an invite to the Wake
Sure. Just remember why you're betting and don't get sucked in. Of course many people here bet very frequently and in quite large sums. Political betting is a pretty minority sport though and there are very few bookmakers that want to take it on. For me it's just a fun thing to do. The political markets (say 'Next PM') are so feindishly complicated and they run for years. I make a very slight profit over the long term, but it's very slight and certainly doesn't recompense the time and effort involved.
Briskin:
I admit I have been sucked to the free bet trick online before (on the footie). I'm pretty sure I've learnt my lesson.
And I've been betting on Politics for over 10 years now.
What was the youngest age of the spouse of the PM when they left office?
36.
I remember being asked that in a quiz years ago, and genuinely being shocked.
Like a wanted sex-pest walking into a police station and so depriving the cops of a dawn raid. Like a disfavoured corsair vaulting off the bowsprit before being made to walk the plank. Like a defeated dictator shooting himself in the face before the Red Army... [that's enough -- Ed]
I admit I have been sucked to the free bet trick online before (on the footie). I'm pretty sure I've learnt my lesson.
And I've been betting on Politics for over 10 years now.
Very odd this blockquote thing. Anyway we both know who said what
You are absolutely right, money back in form of a free bet is not the same as money back.
I think it works the same as reward points at shops, because you feel you are getting something for free you are not shopping around? Does that make sense.
By the same logic, if you don’t want to shop around, it is free? The people deliver my wine boxes, I get tokens I save up and get a free box of wine. Is that not a free box of wine?
Briskin:
If my bet comes of I'll be paid in cash
Not my thing.
But if you’ve waited ten years you’d be mad not to go.
Sir and/or Madam, have you no shame?
Have you ever been to the Union Chapel? A truly wonderful venue. One of my favourites anywhere on this sweet earth
I saw the Gloaming there about 3 years ago. One of the best gigs of my life. Spine tingler