Now Redfield & Wilton has LAB ahead – politicalbetting.com

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Now Redfield & Wilton has LAB ahead – politicalbetting.com

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rottenborough

First. Like Labour.

In one poll.

Oh this is too easy.

Benpointer

Second... like this poll in the list of those showing Labour ahead?

Sunil_Prasannan

Broken, sleazy Tories on the slide

Benpointer

rottenborough said:

First. Like Labour.

In one poll.

Oh this is too easy.

Two polls now shirley?

isam

Strange that the Monday 5pm firm did a Thursday poll - but they did, and it’s a headline grabber

isam

Ole gunnar solskjaer meets with Klopp. He asks him, "Your team wiped the floor with us 5 - 0 I cant get over it, how do you run such an efficient team? Are there any tips you can give to me?"

"Well," says Klopp, "the most important thing is to sign intelligent players."

Solskjaer frowns. "But how do I know the players in my team are really intelligent?"

Klopp says. "Oh, that's easy. You just ask them to answer an intelligence riddle."

Then Klopp phones Mo Salah. "Please Join me and Solskjaer in here, would you?"

Salah walks into the room. "Yes, boss?"

Klopp smiles. "Answer me this, please, Mo. Your mother and father have a child. It is not your brother and it is not your sister. Who is it?"

Without pausing for a moment, Mo answers, "That would be me."

"Yes! Very good," says Klopp.

Back at Old Trafford, Ole gunnar Solskjaer asks to see Harry Maguire.

"Harry, answer this for me. Your mother and father have a child. It's not your brother and it's not your sister. Who is it?"

"I'm not sure," says Harry. "Let me get back to you on that one."

Harry goes to to the whole Man Utd squad and asks every one he can find, but none can give him an answer. Finally, on the way out he bumps into Paul Pogba

Harry says, "Paul! Can you answer this for me? Your mother and your father have a child and it's not your brother or your sister. Who is it?

Paul Pogba says, "That's easy. It's me!"

Harry says. "Thanks!" and goes back to the Managers Office to speak with Ole gunnar Solskjaer.

Harry Says, "I did some research I asked the whole team and I have the answer to that riddle. It's Paul Pogba."

Ole gunnar Solskjaer, stomps over to Harry Maguire, and angrily yells into his face, "No, you idiot! It's Mo Salah!"

tomfan

The next GE is far too far away for this poll to have any relevance to it.

Leon

fpt for RCS

"I think it will be 47-49k."

Deal. I think it will be 52K.

Whoever wins by coming closest, has the altruistic reward of giving a shilling, or the USD equivalent, or any sum in excess, to the next homeless begging person they encounter

I am going to carry a 50p until I get the chance

Foxy

I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

Sunil_Prasannan

isam said:

Strange that the Monday 5pm firm did a Thursday poll - but they did, and it’s a headline grabber

Ipsos Mori also had Labour ahead!

dixiedean

Farooq said:

My official prediction for the next election:
CON 39
LAB 36

If you'd said my prediction for an election tomorrow, I'd have agreed with you.
I take it a snap December election is no longer mooted?

Scott_xP

I: MP who told ⁦@MarcusRashford⁩ to focus on day job has second job #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1458925274574176257/photo/1

Benpointer

Leon said:

fpt for RCS

"I think it will be 47-49k."

Deal. I think it will be 52K.

Whoever wins by coming closest, has the altruistic reward of giving a shilling, or the USD equivalent, or any sum in excess, to the next homeless begging person they encounter

I am going to carry a 50p until I get the chance

You're going to ask the homeless person for 45p change?

Leon

PS, RCS, I think I might win


Worldometer, which updates through the day (or it did yesterday), has Germany on 50,133 already. Are they using the RKI stats from the day before? Maybe, it is confusing, and yet it is these same Worldometer figures which (correctly) told me that Germany was headed for a record day (whereas the ineffable Kamski was still using Monday's figures, or whatever)

We shall see


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Foxy

Farooq said:

Farooq said:

My official prediction for the next election:
CON 39
LAB 36

To achieve this prediction, I've collated the past 90 polls, correlated the results against the new boundaries, factored the demographics, integrated the column inches, regressed the python code, and come up with the answer. And the answer is, taking the two main parties only:

52% - 48%

And you know I'm right.

I have whacked the last dozen polls with my guessing stick and come out with the answer of Minority Lab government.

Perhaps worth having a few quid on PM Starmer.

kle4

tomfan said:

The next GE is far too far away for this poll to have any relevance to it.

It helps pass the time.

Foxy said:

I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

I don't know about Tories, but objections to the Cox stuff from my end at least was nothing to do with whether it would aid Labour in the polls to do so or not do so. It was because there were better examples to target to make a substantive point about behaviour.

Leon

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

fpt for RCS

"I think it will be 47-49k."

Deal. I think it will be 52K.

Whoever wins by coming closest, has the altruistic reward of giving a shilling, or the USD equivalent, or any sum in excess, to the next homeless begging person they encounter

I am going to carry a 50p until I get the chance

You're going to ask the homeless person for 45p change?

No, I will graciously donate the entire Ten Shilling Note

BlancheLivermore

Leon said:

fpt for RCS

"I think it will be 47-49k."

Deal. I think it will be 52K.

Whoever wins by coming closest, has the altruistic reward of giving a shilling, or the USD equivalent, or any sum in excess, to the next homeless begging person they encounter

I am going to carry a 50p until I get the chance

Is 50,500 a tie?

Scott_xP

Doncaster Conservative MP accused of faking constituency visits - after using same selfie photo three times #Doncaster
https://www.doncasterfreepress.co.uk/news/people/doncaster-tory-mp-accused-of-faking-constituency-visits-after-using-same-photo-three-times-3453718 https://twitter.com/DarrenBurkeSYN/status/1458730513980608519/photo/1

Benpointer

tomfan said:

The next GE is far too far away for this poll to have any relevance to it.

In election terms that's true of every poll right up until a few weeks before the election.

But mid-term polls can have significance - for example, they have caused the downfall of several Tory leaders, including Margaret Thatcher

Alistair

Foxy said:

I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

Too quick for Cox.

3-days for an event to filter into polling.

10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

Massive fucking gaffe happens
Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
PB Righties meltdown
PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
A week later polls return to normal

John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.

Leon

BlancheLivermore said:

Leon said:

fpt for RCS

"I think it will be 47-49k."

Deal. I think it will be 52K.

Whoever wins by coming closest, has the altruistic reward of giving a shilling, or the USD equivalent, or any sum in excess, to the next homeless begging person they encounter

I am going to carry a 50p until I get the chance

Is 50,500 a tie?

If it is a tie, I suggest that the wager is resolved by a subsidiary guess at the daily number of Germans on a ventilator?

Using actual deaths seems, I don't know, kind of bad taste. But maybe that's just me

rottenborough

Neil Henderson
@hendopolis
·
11m
I: MP who told ⁦ @MarcusRashford to focus on day job has second job #TomorrowsPapersToday

Benpointer

This is going to be interesting to police:

Austrians heading towards lockdown for unvaccinated

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59245018

Foxy

Alistair said:

Foxy said:

I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

Too quick for Cox.

3-days for an event to filter into polling.

10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

Massive fucking gaffe happens
Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
PB Righties meltdown
PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
A week later polls return to normal

John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.

In general I would agree that these things take time to impact, but I don't think this one will wear off so quickly. The Tories are a shit magnet for this sort of thing because they never learn, it's the same old, same old.

londonpubman

I predict... when the GE comes all these mid term polls will mean nothing 👍

EPG

Mid-term blues on already. Bears no connection to the next election, except it might make it a little later.

rottenborough

@toadmeister has won the annual contrarian prize.


No idea why someone on PB didn't walk this to be honest.

Foxy

Farooq said:

Scott_xP said:

Doncaster Conservative MP accused of faking constituency visits - after using same selfie photo three times #Doncaster
https://www.doncasterfreepress.co.uk/news/people/doncaster-tory-mp-accused-of-faking-constituency-visits-after-using-same-photo-three-times-3453718 https://twitter.com/DarrenBurkeSYN/status/1458730513980608519/photo/1

Amusing... but reusing a photo doesn't mean he wasn't there. Could just be he couldn't be arsed taking a new photo for the social media post, or had a huge zit on his face, and just reused an old picture.

Perhaps he was in the Virgin Isles instead, so attended electronically.

kle4

Alistair said:

Foxy said:

I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

Too quick for Cox.

3-days for an event to filter into polling.

10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

Massive fucking gaffe happens
Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
PB Righties meltdown
PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
A week later polls return to normal

John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.

PB FenceSitters smugly declare whatever happens they saw it coming.

kle4

Farooq said:

kle4 said:

Alistair said:

Foxy said:

I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

Too quick for Cox.

3-days for an event to filter into polling.

10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

Massive fucking gaffe happens
Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
PB Righties meltdown
PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
A week later polls return to normal

John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.

PB FenceSitters smugly declare whatever happens they saw it coming.

I knew you would post that

It's important to maintain one's brand. Foresight is gifted to but a few, use it well, sir.

dixiedean

Alistair said:

Foxy said:

I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

Too quick for Cox.

3-days for an event to filter into polling.

10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

Massive fucking gaffe happens
Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
PB Righties meltdown
PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
A week later polls return to normal

John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.

Yes. However, the polls don't go back to where they were. The lead has been dwindling slowly, slowly since June.
Each event is a drip.

isam

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Foxy said:

I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

Too quick for Cox.

3-days for an event to filter into polling.

10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

Massive fucking gaffe happens
Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
PB Righties meltdown
PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
A week later polls return to normal

John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.

In general I would agree that these things take time to impact, but I don't think this one will wear off so quickly. The Tories are a shit magnet for this sort of thing because they never learn, it's the same old, same old.

If it’s the same old same old, and they’ve won the last four GE’s… does it matter?

Stuartinromford

Scott_xP said:

I: MP who told ⁦@MarcusRashford⁩ to focus on day job has second job #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1458925274574176257/photo/1

To quote Gove's former SPAD, Sam Freedman,

This parade of stories is like the lobby had been holding in a shit for ages and just found a loo.

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1458508630785994752?s=20

Johnson did a remarkable job of making the stories like this seem irrelevant for a couple of years. And it was down to him; there was little point in running Bad Tory MP stories if they were guaranteed to fizzle out. But once one of them cut through, there was bound to be a backlog.

A pane of glass can be immensely strong- but once it has a single hairline crack, it has the potential to fail catastrophically, as those Autoglass adverts point out.

HYUFD

The Tories would still win most seats even on the latest Redfield poll but Starmer would be able to become PM with SNP confidence and supply.

However as we saw in 2015 the prospect of a Labour PM propped up by the SNP in a hung parliament turned undecided voters to the Conservatives in the final days

slade

It appears there are 2 local by-elections in South Kesteven today.

MikeSmithson

Generally the significance of a single poll is in direct proportion to how much you like its finding.

Foxy

isam said:

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Foxy said:

I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

Too quick for Cox.

3-days for an event to filter into polling.

10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

Massive fucking gaffe happens
Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
PB Righties meltdown
PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
A week later polls return to normal

John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.

In general I would agree that these things take time to impact, but I don't think this one will wear off so quickly. The Tories are a shit magnet for this sort of thing because they never learn, it's the same old, same old.

If it’s the same old same old, and they’ve won the last four GE’s… does it matter?

Last time they won 4 GEs in a row and had a sleaze scandal, they lost the next 3.

another_richard

Farooq said:

Scott_xP said:

Doncaster Conservative MP accused of faking constituency visits - after using same selfie photo three times #Doncaster
https://www.doncasterfreepress.co.uk/news/people/doncaster-tory-mp-accused-of-faking-constituency-visits-after-using-same-photo-three-times-3453718 https://twitter.com/DarrenBurkeSYN/status/1458730513980608519/photo/1

Amusing... but reusing a photo doesn't mean he wasn't there. Could just be he couldn't be arsed taking a new photo for the social media post, or had a huge zit on his face, and just reused an old picture.

Given that he lives in his constituency and was holding a surgery in his constituency I'm not sure where the scandal is.

Its not a Cox out in the Virgin Isles situation.

londonpubman

Foxy said:

isam said:

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Foxy said:

I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

Too quick for Cox.

3-days for an event to filter into polling.

10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

Massive fucking gaffe happens
Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
PB Righties meltdown
PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
A week later polls return to normal

John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.

In general I would agree that these things take time to impact, but I don't think this one will wear off so quickly. The Tories are a shit magnet for this sort of thing because they never learn, it's the same old, same old.

If it’s the same old same old, and they’ve won the last four GE’s… does it matter?

Last time they won 4 GEs in a row and had a sleaze scandal, they lost the next 3.

Keep on hoping Foxy 🐶

rcs1000

isam said:

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Foxy said:

I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

Too quick for Cox.

3-days for an event to filter into polling.

10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

Massive fucking gaffe happens
Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
PB Righties meltdown
PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
A week later polls return to normal

John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.

In general I would agree that these things take time to impact, but I don't think this one will wear off so quickly. The Tories are a shit magnet for this sort of thing because they never learn, it's the same old, same old.

If it’s the same old same old, and they’ve won the last four GE’s… does it matter?

Things don't matter until they do.

If people feel wealthier and more secure at the time of the next election, then they'll forgive the government. But if they don't, then it will be another stick to beat them with.

another_richard

Benpointer said:

This is going to be interesting to police:

Austrians heading towards lockdown for unvaccinated

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59245018

Sounds like they need a variant of the Texas abortion law.

Publish the names of the anti-vaxxers and then fine them 1k Euro if they break lockdown - half the money to be paid to people providing evidence of the lockdown breaking.

Mexicanpete

Farooq said:

My official prediction for the next election:
CON 39
LAB 36

If I were a Conservative, my fear for prospects at the next GE would be that we haven't had the economic s***storm yet. I was expecting that, but not this chaos.

There's always swing-back.

Stuartinromford

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Foxy said:

I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

Too quick for Cox.

3-days for an event to filter into polling.

10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

Massive fucking gaffe happens
Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
PB Righties meltdown
PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
A week later polls return to normal

John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.

In general I would agree that these things take time to impact, but I don't think this one will wear off so quickly. The Tories are a shit magnet for this sort of thing because they never learn, it's the same old, same old.

If it’s the same old same old, and they’ve won the last four GE’s… does it matter?

Things don't matter until they do.

If people feel wealthier and more secure at the time of the next election, then they'll forgive the government. But if they don't, then it will be another stick to beat them with.

And if you look at the charts of real-terms pay, there was quite a spurt in 2014/5. Enough to save Cameron's bacon.

The likely trajectory for 2022 and 2023 is that we will generally feel poorer after tax.

So over to you, Rishi.

Yokes

So whilst we look at one and two percent polls leads either way, it appears the US has informed its counterparts in EU capitals that Russia appears to be genuinely weighing up military action against Ukraine. The assumption is they expect the EU to show a bit of backbone.

Should hear the breeze and rustling tumbleweeds out of Berlin shortly.

rottenborough

londonpubman said:

I predict... when the GE comes all these mid term polls will mean nothing 👍

I disagree. All of the polls in November basically show this is heading towards too close to call. Which is what 2023 will be. A close competition. Surprisingly close until the final days imho.

Foxy

slade said:

It appears there are 2 local by-elections in South Kesteven today.

North Kesteven isn't it? Sleaford Castle and Metheringham?

Foxy

londonpubman said:

Foxy said:

isam said:

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Foxy said:

I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

Too quick for Cox.

3-days for an event to filter into polling.

10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

Massive fucking gaffe happens
Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
PB Righties meltdown
PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
A week later polls return to normal

John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.

In general I would agree that these things take time to impact, but I don't think this one will wear off so quickly. The Tories are a shit magnet for this sort of thing because they never learn, it's the same old, same old.

If it’s the same old same old, and they’ve won the last four GE’s… does it matter?

Last time they won 4 GEs in a row and had a sleaze scandal, they lost the next 3.

Keep on hoping Foxy 🐶

Just pointing out that past performance is not a reliable guide.

Yokes

Benpointer said:

This is going to be interesting to police:

Austrians heading towards lockdown for unvaccinated

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59245018

Well they gave birth to Adolf Hitler, who came back like the prodigal son in 1938. Clearly they still dont mind having a dictatorial streak over their citizenry

Foxy

Yokes said:

So whilst we look at one and two percent polls leads either way, it appears the US has informed its counterparts in EU capitals that Russia appears to be genuinely weighing up military action against Ukraine. The assumption is they expect the EU to show a bit of backbone.

Should hear the breeze and rustling tumbleweeds out of Berlin shortly.

It looks more like a formal annexation of the Donbass, to match the informal one.

Philip_Thompson

MikeSmithson said:

Generally the significance of a single poll is in direct proportion to how much you like its finding.

With the inverse representing the odds of the poll being an outlier.

Yokes

Foxy said:

Yokes said:

So whilst we look at one and two percent polls leads either way, it appears the US has informed its counterparts in EU capitals that Russia appears to be genuinely weighing up military action against Ukraine. The assumption is they expect the EU to show a bit of backbone.

Should hear the breeze and rustling tumbleweeds out of Berlin shortly.

It looks more like a formal annexation of the Donbass, to match the informal one.

I wonder which come first, that or the effective annexation of Belarus with old Big Hat Lukashenko doing his impression of Marshal Petain.

slade

Foxy said:

slade said:

It appears there are 2 local by-elections in South Kesteven today.

North Kesteven isn't it? Sleaford Castle and Metheringham?

Sorry - yes.

Theuniondivvie

Yokes said:

So whilst we look at one and two percent polls leads either way, it appears the US has informed its counterparts in EU capitals that Russia appears to be genuinely weighing up military action against Ukraine. The assumption is they expect the EU to show a bit of backbone.

Should hear the breeze and rustling tumbleweeds out of Berlin shortly.

Drowned out by the rattle of an empty scabbard from Westminster surely?

dixiedean

Labour hold in Lancaster.

dixiedean

Punters are pisspoor at these Council by-elections. No reason at all for the Greens to be favourites that I could see.

Quincel

dixiedean said:

Punters are pisspoor at these Council by-elections. No reason at all for the Greens to be favourites that I could see.

I agree. Wish I'd had the courage of my convictions and wagered.

dixiedean

University and Scotforth Lancaster City Council.

Ashton, Zanna (Lib Dem) 16
Askari, Sayeda Fabiha Hassan (Labour) 216 - elected
Maxwell-Scott, Matthew Joseph (Conservative) 44
Payne, Jamie (Green) 193

rottenborough

dixiedean said:

Punters are pisspoor at these Council by-elections. No reason at all for the Greens to be favourites that I could see.

Greens have been strong in Lancaster. No idea about this particular ward.

Yokes

Theuniondivvie said:

Yokes said:

So whilst we look at one and two percent polls leads either way, it appears the US has informed its counterparts in EU capitals that Russia appears to be genuinely weighing up military action against Ukraine. The assumption is they expect the EU to show a bit of backbone.

Should hear the breeze and rustling tumbleweeds out of Berlin shortly.

Drowned out by the rattle of an empty scabbard from Westminster surely?

It appears little known that UK MOD types make visits to Ukraine during times of tension and have done so again recently.

dixiedean

Quincel said:

dixiedean said:

Punters are pisspoor at these Council by-elections. No reason at all for the Greens to be favourites that I could see.

I agree. Wish I'd had the courage of my convictions and wagered.

Yeah me too. We've only had a few. But they seem to heavily expect the upset result. Most are holds, most everywhere, most of the time.

slade

Lab gain in Cardiff.

dixiedean

rottenborough said:

dixiedean said:

Punters are pisspoor at these Council by-elections. No reason at all for the Greens to be favourites that I could see.

Greens have been strong in Lancaster. No idea about this particular ward.

It's always been Labour.

Jade

Why is there a walkers crisp crisis? 😿

slade

Con hold in Melton (as it was originally).

williamglenn

Jade said:

Why is there a walkers crisp crisis? 😿

They blew their budget on Gary Lineker.

slade

PC hold in Denbighshire.

Theuniondivvie

Yokes said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Yokes said:

So whilst we look at one and two percent polls leads either way, it appears the US has informed its counterparts in EU capitals that Russia appears to be genuinely weighing up military action against Ukraine. The assumption is they expect the EU to show a bit of backbone.

Should hear the breeze and rustling tumbleweeds out of Berlin shortly.

Drowned out by the rattle of an empty scabbard from Westminster surely?

It appears little known that UK MOD types make visits to Ukraine during times of tension and have done so again recently.

Made some firm promises have they? Perhaps they've showed the Ukrainians the (current) MOD page on what the UK achieved in Afghanistan as a taster.


'The British Army in Afghanistan

The Taliban gave safe haven to Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, which allowed terrorists to plan and carry out attacks around the world. We joined many other nations in a NATO/ISAF-led military intervention to bring Al-Qaeda’s leaders to justice, remove the Taliban from control in Afghanistan and prevent the country again becoming a safe haven for international terrorists.'

https://www.army.mod.uk/deployments/afghanistan/

kle4

Theuniondivvie said:

Yokes said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Yokes said:

So whilst we look at one and two percent polls leads either way, it appears the US has informed its counterparts in EU capitals that Russia appears to be genuinely weighing up military action against Ukraine. The assumption is they expect the EU to show a bit of backbone.

Should hear the breeze and rustling tumbleweeds out of Berlin shortly.

Drowned out by the rattle of an empty scabbard from Westminster surely?

It appears little known that UK MOD types make visits to Ukraine during times of tension and have done so again recently.

Made some firm promises have they? Perhaps they've showed the Ukrainians the (current) MOD page on what the UK achieved in Afghanistan as a taster.


'The British Army in Afghanistan

The Taliban gave safe haven to Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, which allowed terrorists to plan and carry out attacks around the world. We joined many other nations in a NATO/ISAF-led military intervention to bring Al-Qaeda’s leaders to justice, remove the Taliban from control in Afghanistan and prevent the country again becoming a safe haven for international terrorists.'

https://www.army.mod.uk/deployments/afghanistan/

If that were the only text on the page it might be ok, as it just says what the joined other nations to 'bring' that, it doesn't say it achieved it.

I'd suggest some rewrites though.

slade

slade said:

Lab gain in Cardiff.

This ward is remarkable. In 2004 the Lib Dems won all three seats with majorities over 1000. Since then it has been won by Conservatives, Heath Independents, and Labour.

Theuniondivvie

kle4 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Yokes said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Yokes said:

So whilst we look at one and two percent polls leads either way, it appears the US has informed its counterparts in EU capitals that Russia appears to be genuinely weighing up military action against Ukraine. The assumption is they expect the EU to show a bit of backbone.

Should hear the breeze and rustling tumbleweeds out of Berlin shortly.

Drowned out by the rattle of an empty scabbard from Westminster surely?

It appears little known that UK MOD types make visits to Ukraine during times of tension and have done so again recently.

Made some firm promises have they? Perhaps they've showed the Ukrainians the (current) MOD page on what the UK achieved in Afghanistan as a taster.


'The British Army in Afghanistan

The Taliban gave safe haven to Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, which allowed terrorists to plan and carry out attacks around the world. We joined many other nations in a NATO/ISAF-led military intervention to bring Al-Qaeda’s leaders to justice, remove the Taliban from control in Afghanistan and prevent the country again becoming a safe haven for international terrorists.'

https://www.army.mod.uk/deployments/afghanistan/

If that were the only text on the page it might be ok, as it just says what the joined other nations to 'bring' that, it doesn't say it achieved it.

I'd suggest some rewrites though.

Certainly a change in tenses.

'The international military campaign has reduced the terrorist threat from this region and helped train a 350,000 strong Afghan National Security Force, which now has security responsibility for Afghanistan's 30 million citizens.'

'The UK also provides mentors who work in a training and advisory role within the Afghan National Army Officers' Academy and Infantry Branch School among other Afghan institutions.
These have been made possible by improved security provided by international troops and the Afghan National Security Forces.'

slade

Con gain in North Kesteven from Lincolnshire Independents.

Pulpstar

slade said:

Con gain in North Kesteven from Lincolnshire Independents.

I voted for that lot when they stood under "The independent network" banner in the final EU parliament elections we had.

Andy_JS

"Blacklisted for mocking Hitler
Andrew Graham-Dixon has been banned from the Cambridge Union for making a satirical, anti-racist speech."

https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/11/10/blacklisted-for-mocking-hitler/

londonpubman

slade said:

Con gain in North Kesteven from Lincolnshire Independents.

Turn round Thursday. CON on target for overall majority at GE after all.

Goodnight all 👍

Pulpstar

Andy_JS said:

"Blacklisted for mocking Hitler
Andrew Graham-Dixon has been banned from the Cambridge Union for making a satirical, anti-racist speech."

https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/11/10/blacklisted-for-mocking-hitler/

Springtime for cancel culture.

Sunil_Prasannan

Pulpstar said:

Andy_JS said:

"Blacklisted for mocking Hitler
Andrew Graham-Dixon has been banned from the Cambridge Union for making a satirical, anti-racist speech."

https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/11/10/blacklisted-for-mocking-hitler/

Springtime for cancel culture.

"Das war ein Befehl! Der Cancel Culture Angriff war ein Befehl! Wer sind Sie, dass Sie es wagen, sich meinem Befehl zu widersetzen?"

Roger

Alistair said:

Foxy said:

I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

Too quick for Cox.

3-days for an event to filter into polling.

10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

Massive fucking gaffe happens
Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
PB Righties meltdown
PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
A week later polls return to normal

John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.

Depends what it is. Always.

DecrepiterJohnL

Pulpstar said:

Andy_JS said:

"Blacklisted for mocking Hitler
Andrew Graham-Dixon has been banned from the Cambridge Union for making a satirical, anti-racist speech."

https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/11/10/blacklisted-for-mocking-hitler/

Springtime for cancel culture.

Didn't we do this a couple of days ago? John Cleese then banned himself and the Cambridge Union decided it wasn't going to run a blacklist.

slade

Green hold in Thanet.

DecrepiterJohnL

Paywalled so I can't tell which MPs and their parties:-

MPs fill pockets using rent expenses loophole
Fourteen, including Geoffrey Cox, let out London home and rent another with taxpayer cash
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mps-fill-pockets-using-rent-expenses-loophole-v7j5jtls6 (£££)

DecrepiterJohnL

Yokes said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Yokes said:

So whilst we look at one and two percent polls leads either way, it appears the US has informed its counterparts in EU capitals that Russia appears to be genuinely weighing up military action against Ukraine. The assumption is they expect the EU to show a bit of backbone.

Should hear the breeze and rustling tumbleweeds out of Berlin shortly.

Drowned out by the rattle of an empty scabbard from Westminster surely?

It appears little known that UK MOD types make visits to Ukraine during times of tension and have done so again recently.

British ‘spy’ jet near Crimea ruffles Moscow feathers
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/british-spy-jet-near-crimea-ruffles-moscow-feathers-qnpw8dbnx (£££)

DecrepiterJohnL

williamglenn said:

Jade said:

Why is there a walkers crisp crisis? 😿

They blew their budget on Gary Lineker.

Computer says no. Walkers screwed up a computer upgrade according to (no real details):-
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/nov/07/walkers-crisps-shortage-could-last-until-end-of-month-after-it-glitch

DecrepiterJohnL

Boris Johnson
Tory MPs accuse Johnson of hypocrisy in crackdown on second jobs
UK PM earned more than £4m from outside interests in last 14 years while London mayor and in parliament
https://www.ft.com/content/a256fc82-e036-469a-b489-be5b3f806deb (£££)

Andy_JS

"An Astronomer Cancels His Own Research—Because the Results Weren’t Popular"

https://quillette.com/2021/11/10/an-astronomer-cancels-his-own-research-because-the-results-werent-popular/

Foxy

dixiedean said:

University and Scotforth Lancaster City Council.

Ashton, Zanna (Lib Dem) 16
Askari, Sayeda Fabiha Hassan (Labour) 216 - elected
Maxwell-Scott, Matthew Joseph (Conservative) 44
Payne, Jamie (Green) 193

Strong performance by the Greens, but I thought Labour worth a punt on current polling. Winnings nough for a couple of pints.

Foxy

williamglenn said:

Jade said:

Why is there a walkers crisp crisis? 😿

They blew their budget on Gary Lineker.

Both go back a long way, to when Walkers sponsored Leicester City. Walkers crisps started as a sideline to a butchers on Leicester Market. The Linekers had a fruit and veg stall.

The problem is an IT one it seems.

Foxy

Interesting to see Alaistair Campbell getting such applause from the BBCQT audience, and in Hartlepool too.

https://twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/1458935696639541261?t=kHfDR6kGV6V2AKvo1yh8SA&s=19

Taz

New from the giant sales Expo that is COP26. Trains that will run on hydrogen to be beguile in the UK. A small fleet to start.

https://www.alstom.com/press-releases-news/2021/11/alstom-and-eversholt-rail-sign-agreement-uks-first-ever-brand-new

Taz

Foxy said:

Interesting to see Alaistair Campbell getting such applause from the BBCQT audience, and in Hartlepool too.

https://twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/1458935696639541261?t=kHfDR6kGV6V2AKvo1yh8SA&s=19

People have short memories where he is concerned.

Taz

More failure from this hopeless Tory administration

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59257107

moonshine

https://www.the-sun.com/news/4045099/ufos-us-warships-aliens-dni/

“The main issues that Congress and others have been concerned about is safety of flight concerns and counterintelligence issues. Always there’s also the question of ‘is there something else that we simply do not understand, which might come extraterrestrially?”

This is the second DNI in a row to publicly link UAP to non human intelligence. Ratcliffe was very explicit after he left office, far more so than this, but what he said apparently doesn’t count because Trump hired him. His Biden appointed successor now leaning into it in a similar way.

Which takes us back to the central point identified by Leon ages ago. Either there is the wildest senior bipartisan conspiracy underway in the US establishment to fool the world into thinking we are being visited by aliens/interdimensionals/time travellers etc... Or, there is no conspiracy and that is just what they believe is happening.

Here for example are highly explicit comments from Rep. Carson, who while not a Gang of Eight Member, will have at least seen the unredacted UAP report to Congress as a member of the House Intelligience Committee and STAR sub committee:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UFOs/comments/qkevqf/andre_carson_member_intelligence_committee_this/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Anyway nothing to see here, back to council bi-elections / MPs’ billable hours / Megan Markle.

Nigelb

Johnson Matthey abandons electric car battery plans
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59244991

Nigelb

LOL. Maybe Rishi should have a word with him ?

Miami Mayor @FrancisSuarez announces on "First Mover" that his city will be the first in the U.S. to give a #bitcoin yield, from #Miamicoin, as a dividend directly to its residents.
https://twitter.com/CoinDesk/status/1458874317064843264

Sandpit

Nigelb said:

LOL. Maybe Rishi should have a word with him ?

Miami Mayor @FrancisSuarez announces on "First Mover" that his city will be the first in the U.S. to give a #bitcoin yield, from #Miamicoin, as a dividend directly to its residents.
https://twitter.com/CoinDesk/status/1458874317064843264

What could possibly go wrong there? Only in Miami…

Philip_Thompson

I see the EU are again huffing and bluffing and threating to blow the talks down. https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/11/eu-to-tell-frost-brexit-talks-will-fail-unless-he-ditches-ecj-demand

Frost and Johnson need to stand firm, and say that yes they have decided to invoke Article 16 unless an acceptable to the UK compromise is reached - and that due to the failure of the Protocol to date that includes scrapping the ECJs role.

Chris

For all that the signs are currently encouraging, the situation is quite finely balanced and we won't really know what will happen with COVID-19 until we get into Winter.

If things did go wrong, and a media narrative developed about the Tories having been reckless about lifting restrictions on the one hand, and corruptly helping contractors to make money out of the pandemic on the other, that could be devastating for them.

OnlyLivingBoy

slade said:

Con gain in North Kesteven from Lincolnshire Independents.

Con gain from Con.

Foxy

Philip_Thompson said:

I see the EU are again huffing and bluffing and threating to blow the talks down. https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/11/eu-to-tell-frost-brexit-talks-will-fail-unless-he-ditches-ecj-demand

Frost and Johnson need to stand firm, and say that yes they have decided to invoke Article 16 unless an acceptable to the UK compromise is reached - and that due to the failure of the Protocol to date that includes scrapping the ECJs role.

In what sense is the protocol failing? The majority in Northern Ireland support it.



From: https://www.qub.ac.uk/sites/post-brexit-governance-ni/ProjectPublications/OpinionPolling/TestingTheTemperature3/

Philip_Thompson

Foxy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I see the EU are again huffing and bluffing and threating to blow the talks down. https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/11/eu-to-tell-frost-brexit-talks-will-fail-unless-he-ditches-ecj-demand

Frost and Johnson need to stand firm, and say that yes they have decided to invoke Article 16 unless an acceptable to the UK compromise is reached - and that due to the failure of the Protocol to date that includes scrapping the ECJs role.

In what sense is the protocol failing? The majority in Northern Ireland support it.



From: https://www.qub.ac.uk/sites/post-brexit-governance-ni/ProjectPublications/OpinionPolling/TestingTheTemperature3/

A very slender majority, so do a majority of both communities support it, or just one?

Peace in NI is supposed to be about respecting both communities or did you forget that?

Its failing because its lost the support of the Unionist community, plus its leading to trade diversion which of course is a trigger for Article 16.