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Now Redfield & Wilton has LAB ahead – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 11 in General
imageNow Redfield & Wilton has LAB ahead – politicalbetting.com

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,457
    First. Like Labour.

    In one poll.

    Oh this is too easy.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,831
    Second... like this poll in the list of those showing Labour ahead?
  • Broken, sleazy Tories on the slide :lol:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,831

    First. Like Labour.

    In one poll.

    Oh this is too easy.

    Two polls now shirley?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    My official prediction for the next election:
    CON 39
    LAB 36
  • isamisam Posts: 38,441
    edited November 11
    Strange that the Monday 5pm firm did a Thursday poll - but they did, and it’s a headline grabber
  • tomfantomfan Posts: 21
    The next GE is far too far away for this poll to have any relevance to it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    fpt for RCS

    "I think it will be 47-49k."

    Deal. I think it will be 52K.

    Whoever wins by coming closest, has the altruistic reward of giving a shilling, or the USD equivalent, or any sum in excess, to the next homeless begging person they encounter

    I am going to carry a 50p until I get the chance
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    Farooq said:

    My official prediction for the next election:
    CON 39
    LAB 36

    To achieve this prediction, I've collated the past 90 polls, correlated the results against the new boundaries, factored the demographics, integrated the column inches, regressed the python code, and come up with the answer. And the answer is, taking the two main parties only:

    52% - 48%

    And you know I'm right.
  • isam said:

    Strange that the Monday 5pm firm did a Thursday poll - but they did, and it’s a headline grabber

    Ipsos Mori also had Labour ahead!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403
    Farooq said:

    My official prediction for the next election:
    CON 39
    LAB 36

    If you'd said my prediction for an election tomorrow, I'd have agreed with you.
    I take it a snap December election is no longer mooted?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,831
    Leon said:

    fpt for RCS

    "I think it will be 47-49k."

    Deal. I think it will be 52K.

    Whoever wins by coming closest, has the altruistic reward of giving a shilling, or the USD equivalent, or any sum in excess, to the next homeless begging person they encounter

    I am going to carry a 50p until I get the chance

    You're going to ask the homeless person for 45p change?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    PS, RCS, I think I might win


    Worldometer, which updates through the day (or it did yesterday), has Germany on 50,133 already. Are they using the RKI stats from the day before? Maybe, it is confusing, and yet it is these same Worldometer figures which (correctly) told me that Germany was headed for a record day (whereas the ineffable Kamski was still using Monday's figures, or whatever)

    We shall see


    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    My official prediction for the next election:
    CON 39
    LAB 36

    To achieve this prediction, I've collated the past 90 polls, correlated the results against the new boundaries, factored the demographics, integrated the column inches, regressed the python code, and come up with the answer. And the answer is, taking the two main parties only:

    52% - 48%

    And you know I'm right.
    I have whacked the last dozen polls with my guessing stick and come out with the answer of Minority Lab government.

    Perhaps worth having a few quid on PM Starmer.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    tomfan said:

    The next GE is far too far away for this poll to have any relevance to it.

    It helps pass the time.
    Foxy said:

    I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

    I don't know about Tories, but objections to the Cox stuff from my end at least was nothing to do with whether it would aid Labour in the polls to do so or not do so. It was because there were better examples to target to make a substantive point about behaviour.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861

    Leon said:

    fpt for RCS

    "I think it will be 47-49k."

    Deal. I think it will be 52K.

    Whoever wins by coming closest, has the altruistic reward of giving a shilling, or the USD equivalent, or any sum in excess, to the next homeless begging person they encounter

    I am going to carry a 50p until I get the chance

    You're going to ask the homeless person for 45p change?
    No, I will graciously donate the entire Ten Shilling Note
  • Leon said:

    fpt for RCS

    "I think it will be 47-49k."

    Deal. I think it will be 52K.

    Whoever wins by coming closest, has the altruistic reward of giving a shilling, or the USD equivalent, or any sum in excess, to the next homeless begging person they encounter

    I am going to carry a 50p until I get the chance

    Is 50,500 a tie?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,831
    tomfan said:

    The next GE is far too far away for this poll to have any relevance to it.

    In election terms that's true of every poll right up until a few weeks before the election.

    But mid-term polls can have significance - for example, they have caused the downfall of several Tory leaders, including Margaret Thatcher
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    Foxy said:

    I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

    Too quick for Cox.

    3-days for an event to filter into polling.

    10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


    We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

    Massive fucking gaffe happens
    Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
    PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
    Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
    PB Righties meltdown
    PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
    A week later polls return to normal

    John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861

    Leon said:

    fpt for RCS

    "I think it will be 47-49k."

    Deal. I think it will be 52K.

    Whoever wins by coming closest, has the altruistic reward of giving a shilling, or the USD equivalent, or any sum in excess, to the next homeless begging person they encounter

    I am going to carry a 50p until I get the chance

    Is 50,500 a tie?
    If it is a tie, I suggest that the wager is resolved by a subsidiary guess at the daily number of Germans on a ventilator?

    Using actual deaths seems, I don't know, kind of bad taste. But maybe that's just me
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    Scott_xP said:
    Amusing... but reusing a photo doesn't mean he wasn't there. Could just be he couldn't be arsed taking a new photo for the social media post, or had a huge zit on his face, and just reused an old picture.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,457
    :lol:


    Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    11m
    I: MP who told ⁦ @MarcusRashford to focus on day job has second job #TomorrowsPapersToday
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,831
    This is going to be interesting to police:

    Austrians heading towards lockdown for unvaccinated

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59245018
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

    Too quick for Cox.

    3-days for an event to filter into polling.

    10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


    We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

    Massive fucking gaffe happens
    Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
    PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
    Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
    PB Righties meltdown
    PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
    A week later polls return to normal

    John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.
    In general I would agree that these things take time to impact, but I don't think this one will wear off so quickly. The Tories are a shit magnet for this sort of thing because they never learn, it's the same old, same old.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,251
    I predict... when the GE comes all these mid term polls will mean nothing 👍
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,716
    Mid-term blues on already. Bears no connection to the next election, except it might make it a little later.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,457
    @toadmeister has won the annual contrarian prize.


    No idea why someone on PB didn't walk this to be honest.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Amusing... but reusing a photo doesn't mean he wasn't there. Could just be he couldn't be arsed taking a new photo for the social media post, or had a huge zit on his face, and just reused an old picture.
    Perhaps he was in the Virgin Isles instead, so attended electronically.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

    Too quick for Cox.

    3-days for an event to filter into polling.

    10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


    We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

    Massive fucking gaffe happens
    Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
    PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
    Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
    PB Righties meltdown
    PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
    A week later polls return to normal

    John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.
    PB FenceSitters smugly declare whatever happens they saw it coming.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

    Too quick for Cox.

    3-days for an event to filter into polling.

    10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


    We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

    Massive fucking gaffe happens
    Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
    PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
    Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
    PB Righties meltdown
    PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
    A week later polls return to normal

    John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.
    PB FenceSitters smugly declare whatever happens they saw it coming.
    I knew you would post that
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    edited November 11
    Farooq said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

    Too quick for Cox.

    3-days for an event to filter into polling.

    10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


    We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

    Massive fucking gaffe happens
    Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
    PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
    Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
    PB Righties meltdown
    PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
    A week later polls return to normal

    John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.
    PB FenceSitters smugly declare whatever happens they saw it coming.
    I knew you would post that
    It's important to maintain one's brand. Foresight is gifted to but a few, use it well, sir.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403
    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

    Too quick for Cox.

    3-days for an event to filter into polling.

    10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


    We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

    Massive fucking gaffe happens
    Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
    PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
    Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
    PB Righties meltdown
    PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
    A week later polls return to normal

    John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.
    Yes. However, the polls don't go back to where they were. The lead has been dwindling slowly, slowly since June.
    Each event is a drip.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,441
    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

    Too quick for Cox.

    3-days for an event to filter into polling.

    10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


    We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

    Massive fucking gaffe happens
    Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
    PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
    Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
    PB Righties meltdown
    PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
    A week later polls return to normal

    John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.
    In general I would agree that these things take time to impact, but I don't think this one will wear off so quickly. The Tories are a shit magnet for this sort of thing because they never learn, it's the same old, same old.
    If it’s the same old same old, and they’ve won the last four GE’s… does it matter?
  • Scott_xP said:

    I: MP who told ⁦@MarcusRashford⁩ to focus on day job has second job #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1458925274574176257/photo/1

    To quote Gove's former SPAD, Sam Freedman,

    This parade of stories is like the lobby had been holding in a shit for ages and just found a loo.

    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1458508630785994752?s=20

    Johnson did a remarkable job of making the stories like this seem irrelevant for a couple of years. And it was down to him; there was little point in running Bad Tory MP stories if they were guaranteed to fizzle out. But once one of them cut through, there was bound to be a backlog.

    A pane of glass can be immensely strong- but once it has a single hairline crack, it has the potential to fail catastrophically, as those Autoglass adverts point out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    The Tories would still win most seats even on the latest Redfield poll but Starmer would be able to become PM with SNP confidence and supply.

    However as we saw in 2015 the prospect of a Labour PM propped up by the SNP in a hung parliament turned undecided voters to the Conservatives in the final days
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,327
    It appears there are 2 local by-elections in South Kesteven today.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

    Too quick for Cox.

    3-days for an event to filter into polling.

    10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


    We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

    Massive fucking gaffe happens
    Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
    PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
    Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
    PB Righties meltdown
    PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
    A week later polls return to normal

    John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.
    In general I would agree that these things take time to impact, but I don't think this one will wear off so quickly. The Tories are a shit magnet for this sort of thing because they never learn, it's the same old, same old.
    If it’s the same old same old, and they’ve won the last four GE’s… does it matter?
    Last time they won 4 GEs in a row and had a sleaze scandal, they lost the next 3.
  • Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Amusing... but reusing a photo doesn't mean he wasn't there. Could just be he couldn't be arsed taking a new photo for the social media post, or had a huge zit on his face, and just reused an old picture.
    Given that he lives in his constituency and was holding a surgery in his constituency I'm not sure where the scandal is.

    Its not a Cox out in the Virgin Isles situation.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,251
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

    Too quick for Cox.

    3-days for an event to filter into polling.

    10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


    We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

    Massive fucking gaffe happens
    Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
    PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
    Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
    PB Righties meltdown
    PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
    A week later polls return to normal

    John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.
    In general I would agree that these things take time to impact, but I don't think this one will wear off so quickly. The Tories are a shit magnet for this sort of thing because they never learn, it's the same old, same old.
    If it’s the same old same old, and they’ve won the last four GE’s… does it matter?
    Last time they won 4 GEs in a row and had a sleaze scandal, they lost the next 3.
    Keep on hoping Foxy 🐶
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

    Too quick for Cox.

    3-days for an event to filter into polling.

    10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


    We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

    Massive fucking gaffe happens
    Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
    PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
    Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
    PB Righties meltdown
    PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
    A week later polls return to normal

    John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.
    In general I would agree that these things take time to impact, but I don't think this one will wear off so quickly. The Tories are a shit magnet for this sort of thing because they never learn, it's the same old, same old.
    If it’s the same old same old, and they’ve won the last four GE’s… does it matter?
    Things don't matter until they do.

    If people feel wealthier and more secure at the time of the next election, then they'll forgive the government. But if they don't, then it will be another stick to beat them with.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Amusing... but reusing a photo doesn't mean he wasn't there. Could just be he couldn't be arsed taking a new photo for the social media post, or had a huge zit on his face, and just reused an old picture.
    Given that he lives in his constituency and was holding a surgery in his constituency I'm not sure where the scandal is.

    Its not a Cox out in the Virgin Isles situation.
    No, it's another nothing story. Funny in a small way, but not evidence of something bad.
  • This is going to be interesting to police:

    Austrians heading towards lockdown for unvaccinated

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59245018

    Sounds like they need a variant of the Texas abortion law.

    Publish the names of the anti-vaxxers and then fine them 1k Euro if they break lockdown - half the money to be paid to people providing evidence of the lockdown breaking.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,634
    Farooq said:

    My official prediction for the next election:
    CON 39
    LAB 36

    If I were a Conservative, my fear for prospects at the next GE would be that we haven't had the economic s***storm yet. I was expecting that, but not this chaos.

    There's always swing-back.
  • rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

    Too quick for Cox.

    3-days for an event to filter into polling.

    10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


    We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

    Massive fucking gaffe happens
    Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
    PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
    Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
    PB Righties meltdown
    PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
    A week later polls return to normal

    John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.
    In general I would agree that these things take time to impact, but I don't think this one will wear off so quickly. The Tories are a shit magnet for this sort of thing because they never learn, it's the same old, same old.
    If it’s the same old same old, and they’ve won the last four GE’s… does it matter?
    Things don't matter until they do.

    If people feel wealthier and more secure at the time of the next election, then they'll forgive the government. But if they don't, then it will be another stick to beat them with.
    And if you look at the charts of real-terms pay, there was quite a spurt in 2014/5. Enough to save Cameron's bacon.

    The likely trajectory for 2022 and 2023 is that we will generally feel poorer after tax.

    So over to you, Rishi.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 733
    edited November 11
    So whilst we look at one and two percent polls leads either way, it appears the US has informed its counterparts in EU capitals that Russia appears to be genuinely weighing up military action against Ukraine. The assumption is they expect the EU to show a bit of backbone.

    Should hear the breeze and rustling tumbleweeds out of Berlin shortly.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,457

    I predict... when the GE comes all these mid term polls will mean nothing 👍

    I disagree. All of the polls in November basically show this is heading towards too close to call. Which is what 2023 will be. A close competition. Surprisingly close until the final days imho.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    slade said:

    It appears there are 2 local by-elections in South Kesteven today.

    North Kesteven isn't it? Sleaford Castle and Metheringham?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

    Too quick for Cox.

    3-days for an event to filter into polling.

    10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


    We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

    Massive fucking gaffe happens
    Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
    PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
    Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
    PB Righties meltdown
    PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
    A week later polls return to normal

    John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.
    In general I would agree that these things take time to impact, but I don't think this one will wear off so quickly. The Tories are a shit magnet for this sort of thing because they never learn, it's the same old, same old.
    If it’s the same old same old, and they’ve won the last four GE’s… does it matter?
    Last time they won 4 GEs in a row and had a sleaze scandal, they lost the next 3.
    Keep on hoping Foxy 🐶
    Just pointing out that past performance is not a reliable guide.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 733

    This is going to be interesting to police:

    Austrians heading towards lockdown for unvaccinated

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59245018

    Well they gave birth to Adolf Hitler, who came back like the prodigal son in 1938. Clearly they still dont mind having a dictatorial streak over their citizenry
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    Yokes said:

    So whilst we look at one and two percent polls leads either way, it appears the US has informed its counterparts in EU capitals that Russia appears to be genuinely weighing up military action against Ukraine. The assumption is they expect the EU to show a bit of backbone.

    Should hear the breeze and rustling tumbleweeds out of Berlin shortly.

    It looks more like a formal annexation of the Donbass, to match the informal one.
  • Generally the significance of a single poll is in direct proportion to how much you like its finding.

    With the inverse representing the odds of the poll being an outlier.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 733
    Foxy said:

    Yokes said:

    So whilst we look at one and two percent polls leads either way, it appears the US has informed its counterparts in EU capitals that Russia appears to be genuinely weighing up military action against Ukraine. The assumption is they expect the EU to show a bit of backbone.

    Should hear the breeze and rustling tumbleweeds out of Berlin shortly.

    It looks more like a formal annexation of the Donbass, to match the informal one.
    I wonder which come first, that or the effective annexation of Belarus with old Big Hat Lukashenko doing his impression of Marshal Petain.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,327
    Foxy said:

    slade said:

    It appears there are 2 local by-elections in South Kesteven today.

    North Kesteven isn't it? Sleaford Castle and Metheringham?
    Sorry - yes.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,173
    Yokes said:

    So whilst we look at one and two percent polls leads either way, it appears the US has informed its counterparts in EU capitals that Russia appears to be genuinely weighing up military action against Ukraine. The assumption is they expect the EU to show a bit of backbone.

    Should hear the breeze and rustling tumbleweeds out of Berlin shortly.

    Drowned out by the rattle of an empty scabbard from Westminster surely?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403
    Labour hold in Lancaster.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403
    Punters are pisspoor at these Council by-elections. No reason at all for the Greens to be favourites that I could see.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,791
    dixiedean said:

    Punters are pisspoor at these Council by-elections. No reason at all for the Greens to be favourites that I could see.

    I agree. Wish I'd had the courage of my convictions and wagered.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403
    University and Scotforth Lancaster City Council.

    Ashton, Zanna (Lib Dem) 16
    Askari, Sayeda Fabiha Hassan (Labour) 216 - elected
    Maxwell-Scott, Matthew Joseph (Conservative) 44
    Payne, Jamie (Green) 193
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,457
    dixiedean said:

    Punters are pisspoor at these Council by-elections. No reason at all for the Greens to be favourites that I could see.

    Greens have been strong in Lancaster. No idea about this particular ward.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 733

    Yokes said:

    So whilst we look at one and two percent polls leads either way, it appears the US has informed its counterparts in EU capitals that Russia appears to be genuinely weighing up military action against Ukraine. The assumption is they expect the EU to show a bit of backbone.

    Should hear the breeze and rustling tumbleweeds out of Berlin shortly.

    Drowned out by the rattle of an empty scabbard from Westminster surely?
    It appears little known that UK MOD types make visits to Ukraine during times of tension and have done so again recently.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403
    Quincel said:

    dixiedean said:

    Punters are pisspoor at these Council by-elections. No reason at all for the Greens to be favourites that I could see.

    I agree. Wish I'd had the courage of my convictions and wagered.
    Yeah me too. We've only had a few. But they seem to heavily expect the upset result. Most are holds, most everywhere, most of the time.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,327
    Lab gain in Cardiff.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403

    dixiedean said:

    Punters are pisspoor at these Council by-elections. No reason at all for the Greens to be favourites that I could see.

    Greens have been strong in Lancaster. No idea about this particular ward.
    It's always been Labour.
  • JadeJade Posts: 27
    Why is there a walkers crisp crisis? 😿
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,327
    Con hold in Melton (as it was originally).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,747
    Jade said:

    Why is there a walkers crisp crisis? 😿

    They blew their budget on Gary Lineker.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,327
    PC hold in Denbighshire.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,173
    edited November 11
    Yokes said:

    Yokes said:

    So whilst we look at one and two percent polls leads either way, it appears the US has informed its counterparts in EU capitals that Russia appears to be genuinely weighing up military action against Ukraine. The assumption is they expect the EU to show a bit of backbone.

    Should hear the breeze and rustling tumbleweeds out of Berlin shortly.

    Drowned out by the rattle of an empty scabbard from Westminster surely?
    It appears little known that UK MOD types make visits to Ukraine during times of tension and have done so again recently.
    Made some firm promises have they? Perhaps they've showed the Ukrainians the (current) MOD page on what the UK achieved in Afghanistan as a taster.


    'The British Army in Afghanistan

    The Taliban gave safe haven to Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, which allowed terrorists to plan and carry out attacks around the world. We joined many other nations in a NATO/ISAF-led military intervention to bring Al-Qaeda’s leaders to justice, remove the Taliban from control in Afghanistan and prevent the country again becoming a safe haven for international terrorists.'

    https://www.army.mod.uk/deployments/afghanistan/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704

    Yokes said:

    Yokes said:

    So whilst we look at one and two percent polls leads either way, it appears the US has informed its counterparts in EU capitals that Russia appears to be genuinely weighing up military action against Ukraine. The assumption is they expect the EU to show a bit of backbone.

    Should hear the breeze and rustling tumbleweeds out of Berlin shortly.

    Drowned out by the rattle of an empty scabbard from Westminster surely?
    It appears little known that UK MOD types make visits to Ukraine during times of tension and have done so again recently.
    Made some firm promises have they? Perhaps they've showed the Ukrainians the (current) MOD page on what the UK achieved in Afghanistan as a taster.


    'The British Army in Afghanistan

    The Taliban gave safe haven to Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, which allowed terrorists to plan and carry out attacks around the world. We joined many other nations in a NATO/ISAF-led military intervention to bring Al-Qaeda’s leaders to justice, remove the Taliban from control in Afghanistan and prevent the country again becoming a safe haven for international terrorists.'

    https://www.army.mod.uk/deployments/afghanistan/
    If that were the only text on the page it might be ok, as it just says what the joined other nations to 'bring' that, it doesn't say it achieved it.

    I'd suggest some rewrites though.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,327
    slade said:

    Lab gain in Cardiff.

    This ward is remarkable. In 2004 the Lib Dems won all three seats with majorities over 1000. Since then it has been won by Conservatives, Heath Independents, and Labour.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,173
    kle4 said:

    Yokes said:

    Yokes said:

    So whilst we look at one and two percent polls leads either way, it appears the US has informed its counterparts in EU capitals that Russia appears to be genuinely weighing up military action against Ukraine. The assumption is they expect the EU to show a bit of backbone.

    Should hear the breeze and rustling tumbleweeds out of Berlin shortly.

    Drowned out by the rattle of an empty scabbard from Westminster surely?
    It appears little known that UK MOD types make visits to Ukraine during times of tension and have done so again recently.
    Made some firm promises have they? Perhaps they've showed the Ukrainians the (current) MOD page on what the UK achieved in Afghanistan as a taster.


    'The British Army in Afghanistan

    The Taliban gave safe haven to Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, which allowed terrorists to plan and carry out attacks around the world. We joined many other nations in a NATO/ISAF-led military intervention to bring Al-Qaeda’s leaders to justice, remove the Taliban from control in Afghanistan and prevent the country again becoming a safe haven for international terrorists.'

    https://www.army.mod.uk/deployments/afghanistan/
    If that were the only text on the page it might be ok, as it just says what the joined other nations to 'bring' that, it doesn't say it achieved it.

    I'd suggest some rewrites though.
    Certainly a change in tenses.

    'The international military campaign has reduced the terrorist threat from this region and helped train a 350,000 strong Afghan National Security Force, which now has security responsibility for Afghanistan's 30 million citizens.'

    'The UK also provides mentors who work in a training and advisory role within the Afghan National Army Officers' Academy and Infantry Branch School among other Afghan institutions.
    These have been made possible by improved security provided by international troops and the Afghan National Security Forces.'
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,327
    Con gain in North Kesteven from Lincolnshire Independents.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,402
    slade said:

    Con gain in North Kesteven from Lincolnshire Independents.

    I voted for that lot when they stood under "The independent network" banner in the final EU parliament elections we had.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,782
    "Blacklisted for mocking Hitler
    Andrew Graham-Dixon has been banned from the Cambridge Union for making a satirical, anti-racist speech."

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/11/10/blacklisted-for-mocking-hitler/
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,251
    slade said:

    Con gain in North Kesteven from Lincolnshire Independents.

    Turn round Thursday. CON on target for overall majority at GE after all.

    Goodnight all 👍
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,402
    Andy_JS said:

    "Blacklisted for mocking Hitler
    Andrew Graham-Dixon has been banned from the Cambridge Union for making a satirical, anti-racist speech."

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/11/10/blacklisted-for-mocking-hitler/

    Springtime for cancel culture.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,582
    edited November 12
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Blacklisted for mocking Hitler
    Andrew Graham-Dixon has been banned from the Cambridge Union for making a satirical, anti-racist speech."

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/11/10/blacklisted-for-mocking-hitler/

    Springtime for cancel culture.
    "Das war ein Befehl! Der Cancel Culture Angriff war ein Befehl! Wer sind Sie, dass Sie es wagen, sich meinem Befehl zu widersetzen?"
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,923
    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    I see this poll was done on 10 November, the day Geoffrey Cox dominated the news. Yet I was reassured by PB Tories that Labour were barking up the wrong tree. It seems not...

    Too quick for Cox.

    3-days for an event to filter into polling.

    10-days for it to roll out again if it is not truly impactful.


    We've seen this so often with the Johnson government.

    Massive fucking gaffe happens
    Polling with field work within a couple of days of gaffe happens which shows no change
    PB Righties smugly pronouncement that it is a Westiminster bubble story and Real Britons don't care.
    Polling with a field work date a week later shows a dip in Con lead
    PB Righties meltdown
    PB Lefties smugly declare the end of the Conservative government
    A week later polls return to normal

    John Lewis wallpaper gate is the classic example.
    Depends what it is. Always.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Blacklisted for mocking Hitler
    Andrew Graham-Dixon has been banned from the Cambridge Union for making a satirical, anti-racist speech."

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/11/10/blacklisted-for-mocking-hitler/

    Springtime for cancel culture.
    Didn't we do this a couple of days ago? John Cleese then banned himself and the Cambridge Union decided it wasn't going to run a blacklist.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,327
    Green hold in Thanet.
  • Paywalled so I can't tell which MPs and their parties:-

    MPs fill pockets using rent expenses loophole
    Fourteen, including Geoffrey Cox, let out London home and rent another with taxpayer cash

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mps-fill-pockets-using-rent-expenses-loophole-v7j5jtls6 (£££)
  • Yokes said:

    Yokes said:

    So whilst we look at one and two percent polls leads either way, it appears the US has informed its counterparts in EU capitals that Russia appears to be genuinely weighing up military action against Ukraine. The assumption is they expect the EU to show a bit of backbone.

    Should hear the breeze and rustling tumbleweeds out of Berlin shortly.

    Drowned out by the rattle of an empty scabbard from Westminster surely?
    It appears little known that UK MOD types make visits to Ukraine during times of tension and have done so again recently.
    British ‘spy’ jet near Crimea ruffles Moscow feathers
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/british-spy-jet-near-crimea-ruffles-moscow-feathers-qnpw8dbnx (£££)
  • Jade said:

    Why is there a walkers crisp crisis? 😿

    They blew their budget on Gary Lineker.
    Computer says no. Walkers screwed up a computer upgrade according to (no real details):-
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/nov/07/walkers-crisps-shortage-could-last-until-end-of-month-after-it-glitch
  • Boris Johnson
    Tory MPs accuse Johnson of hypocrisy in crackdown on second jobs
    UK PM earned more than £4m from outside interests in last 14 years while London mayor and in parliament

    https://www.ft.com/content/a256fc82-e036-469a-b489-be5b3f806deb (£££)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,782
    "An Astronomer Cancels His Own Research—Because the Results Weren’t Popular"

    https://quillette.com/2021/11/10/an-astronomer-cancels-his-own-research-because-the-results-werent-popular/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    dixiedean said:

    University and Scotforth Lancaster City Council.

    Ashton, Zanna (Lib Dem) 16
    Askari, Sayeda Fabiha Hassan (Labour) 216 - elected
    Maxwell-Scott, Matthew Joseph (Conservative) 44
    Payne, Jamie (Green) 193

    Strong performance by the Greens, but I thought Labour worth a punt on current polling. Winnings nough for a couple of pints.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519

    Jade said:

    Why is there a walkers crisp crisis? 😿

    They blew their budget on Gary Lineker.
    Both go back a long way, to when Walkers sponsored Leicester City. Walkers crisps started as a sideline to a butchers on Leicester Market. The Linekers had a fruit and veg stall.

    The problem is an IT one it seems.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    Interesting to see Alaistair Campbell getting such applause from the BBCQT audience, and in Hartlepool too.

    https://twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/1458935696639541261?t=kHfDR6kGV6V2AKvo1yh8SA&s=19
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,451
    New from the giant sales Expo that is COP26. Trains that will run on hydrogen to be beguile in the UK. A small fleet to start.

    https://www.alstom.com/press-releases-news/2021/11/alstom-and-eversholt-rail-sign-agreement-uks-first-ever-brand-new
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,451
    Foxy said:

    Interesting to see Alaistair Campbell getting such applause from the BBCQT audience, and in Hartlepool too.

    https://twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/1458935696639541261?t=kHfDR6kGV6V2AKvo1yh8SA&s=19

    People have short memories where he is concerned.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,451
    More failure from this hopeless Tory administration

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59257107
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,737
    https://www.the-sun.com/news/4045099/ufos-us-warships-aliens-dni/

    “The main issues that Congress and others have been concerned about is safety of flight concerns and counterintelligence issues. Always there’s also the question of ‘is there something else that we simply do not understand, which might come extraterrestrially?”

    This is the second DNI in a row to publicly link UAP to non human intelligence. Ratcliffe was very explicit after he left office, far more so than this, but what he said apparently doesn’t count because Trump hired him. His Biden appointed successor now leaning into it in a similar way.

    Which takes us back to the central point identified by Leon ages ago. Either there is the wildest senior bipartisan conspiracy underway in the US establishment to fool the world into thinking we are being visited by aliens/interdimensionals/time travellers etc... Or, there is no conspiracy and that is just what they believe is happening.

    Here for example are highly explicit comments from Rep. Carson, who while not a Gang of Eight Member, will have at least seen the unredacted UAP report to Congress as a member of the House Intelligience Committee and STAR sub committee:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/UFOs/comments/qkevqf/andre_carson_member_intelligence_committee_this/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

    Anyway nothing to see here, back to council bi-elections / MPs’ billable hours / Megan Markle.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,930
    Johnson Matthey abandons electric car battery plans
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59244991
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,930
    LOL. Maybe Rishi should have a word with him ?

    Miami Mayor @FrancisSuarez announces on "First Mover" that his city will be the first in the U.S. to give a #bitcoin yield, from #Miamicoin, as a dividend directly to its residents.
    https://twitter.com/CoinDesk/status/1458874317064843264
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,922
    Nigelb said:

    LOL. Maybe Rishi should have a word with him ?

    Miami Mayor @FrancisSuarez announces on "First Mover" that his city will be the first in the U.S. to give a #bitcoin yield, from #Miamicoin, as a dividend directly to its residents.
    https://twitter.com/CoinDesk/status/1458874317064843264

    What could possibly go wrong there? Only in Miami…
This discussion has been closed.