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Election betting: CON majority drops to a 39% chance – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    RobD said:

    maaarsh said:

    RobD said:

    Let's not forget this story:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/02/briefing/britain-covid-cases-restrictions.html

    Britain offers a warning of what happens when a country ignores Covid.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1457571085428432904

    If you believe the chief executive of the NHS that NYT article is spot on still. Must be wonderful to be so unaccountable you can make such fantastical lies with impunity. 14x last year apparently for number in hospital, which given we were over 10k this time last year suggests there are currently more covid patients admitted than there are beds - only out by a factor of 20x.
    Complete and utter bollocks.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=overview&areaName=United Kingdom
    Even if you interpret her weird phrasing to mean in total year to date, her figures are utter rubbish. Just bizarre.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Boris Johnson loses poll lead in wake of Tory sleaze scandal - although Labour not yet making dramatic breakthrough

    Con 35 (-4)
    Labour 36 (-)
    Greens 11 (+6)
    Lib Dems 9 (-)

    Just one poll and within margin of error etc

    h/t @nicholascecil/ @IpsosMORI
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-loses-poll-lead-ipsos-mori-sleaze-scandal-b964945.html

    Interesting point - the field work on this poll was Oct 29 - Nov 4 so much of it was *before* Paterson row dominated headlines (debate was Nov 3, U-turn Nov 4). Next one should be fascinating...

    It was mostly taken before Paterson's resignation though
    So are you expecting Cons sub 30% at the next sampling?
    No, I expect now the issue has faded the Conservatives may rebound a little
    Faded? It has barely begun.
    @HYUFD has a very complacent attitude

    Boris is at a hospital in the North East and JRM has gone into hiding with apparently Steve Barclay facing off Starmer

    The most interesting part of this afternoon debate is not Starmer's open goal but just how many conservative mps come out and attack the decision to try to keep Paterson in place

    I would just suggest to red wall mps, come out and fight for decency and show Boris he is on notice to clean up his act or go
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Aslan said:

    algarkirk said:

    It's an interesting moment. To do a 'Blair' again Labour have to do two jobs. The first is being gifted to them - to portray the government as mired in sleaze and all that, and keep it up for the next two years.

    The second is to have a broad leadership which exudes competence and clarity, and beyond doubt has better policies on offer on the subjects that are big for the key voters.

    These are things like post-Brexit strategy and vision, housing, transport, education, jobs, debt, deficit, interest rates, inflation, tax, NHS, social care, defence, the union, migration, CO2, free speech, taming the extremes of left and right, terrorism and so on.

    Because they are so behind in this they still have little chance of winning, and only a even chance of leading the next government. They should be 20 points ahead.

    Where are the killer three word slogans?

    Make Brexit Work

    Keir is sticking to this and needs to have his front bench team hammering it in every interview. We are where we are. The EU is the past, our trading relationship the future. We need to Make Brexit Work to deliver the hope that people have for our future however they voted.

    At the moment too much of the message is "Brexit doesn't work and you are stupid". Change it to "Brexit doesn't work, but it could" and its a mirror held up to Tory failure to deliver. More so if we embark on a trade war.
    Labour's biggest danger is if it looks like they will open the flood gates on unskilled immigration again.
    Polling suggests big shifts in public opinion in recent years to being much more positive about immigration. The narrative on unskilled immigration can be changed: you talk about the shortages on shelves and the shortages of people to do the jobs, for example.
    People back the points system, based on skills shortages and needs, not open door immigration
    So with the large skills and labour shortages are we not allowing people in to work?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    He was clearly talking about their response to the current stage of pandemic, rather than in general.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,548
    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    I think that's rather harsh. In addition to the politics, everyone is trying their best.

    I was half-expecting a heavy 3rd in EU countries in the summer, but that happened less there than hear.

    We won't know where we all are until next Easter.

    I really hope BJ doesn't start doing "EU-beating" comparisons. That's the last thing we need now.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    There are a lot of refusers in europe.
  • Options
    As the Mirror's Political Editor observes:

    Funny how he can get back to London on time if it's for dinner with old pals at a gentlemens club, but not to face MPs on the scandals engulfing his party

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1457660723920871430?s=20
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    RobD said:

    It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.

    A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.

    I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.

    Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.

    By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.

    I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
    Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
    Thank you for proving my point!
    Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
    Just out of interest how old are you @HYUFD ? That comment puts you over 40 if you could vote in 97. I don't know why but I imagined you as late 20s or early 30s. My guess wasn't actually based on anything really.
    I am just under 40, I could not vote in 1997 but I did canvass with a friend's mother who was a local Tory member.

    I attended my first campaign rally in 1992 for Major in rural Gravesham when he was on his soapbox and have been involved campaigning for the Conservatives in some capacity in every general election since
    Life begins at 40. Ask yourself what your values and principles are, then look at the party you are attached to like a limpet and realise you parted ways morally a long time before.

    If you are a Majorite Tory why are you condoning Borisite blue Labour policies that you have opposed all this time? What is the point in you keeping Labour out only to do what Labour do? If you are a Majorite Tory why condone outrageous corruption?

    That moment of absolute clarity when you realise the party is beneath you and you walk away is golden. I hope you enjoy it - and the personal cleansing of your own morality - as much as I did.
    I am not a Majorite Tory, I am just a Tory.

    I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris (and briefly met Thatcher once at a reception)
    And the rest? You'll back your party regardless of what it does or how it clashes with your own principles because it's your party?

    Like a football team in other words.
    Whoever leads the party it will always be more in tune with my conservative principles than Labour or the LDs
    No matter how brazenly corrupt? No matter if they implement all those Labour policies you disagree with in principle?

    Is your membership and support for the Conservative Party worth anything more than "my team whatever they do"? Its just that you make all these moralistic principled judgements on other people whilst displaying that you have none of your own...
    They are not introducing higher inheritance tax or higher income tax or proposing to abolish the monarchy etc and if they did I would likely go to RefUK not Labour or the LDs.

    In any case under Macmillan we had a Conservative government with large numbers of nationalised industries and a top rate of income tax significantly higher than it is now but it was still more conservative than Labour were
    You don't have to go to another party. I keep making this point to you. Just say "not in my name", man up, grow a spine and refuse to associate yourself with *that*.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,262
    Just popped in here. Any leaks yet on the Ipsos-Mori poll?
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,353
    edited November 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Boris Johnson loses poll lead in wake of Tory sleaze scandal - although Labour not yet making dramatic breakthrough

    Con 35 (-4)
    Labour 36 (-)
    Greens 11 (+6)
    Lib Dems 9 (-)

    Just one poll and within margin of error etc

    h/t @nicholascecil/ @IpsosMORI
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-loses-poll-lead-ipsos-mori-sleaze-scandal-b964945.html

    Interesting point - the field work on this poll was Oct 29 - Nov 4 so much of it was *before* Paterson row dominated headlines (debate was Nov 3, U-turn Nov 4). Next one should be fascinating...

    It was mostly taken before Paterson's resignation though
    So are you expecting Cons sub 30% at the next sampling?
    No, I expect now the issue has faded the Conservatives may rebound a little
    Faded? It has barely begun.
    @HYUFD has a very complacent attitude

    Boris is at a hospital in the North East and JRM has gone into hiding with apparently Steve Barclay facing off Starmer

    The most interesting part of this afternoon debate is not Starmer's open goal but just how many conservative mps come out and attack the decision to try to keep Paterson in place

    I would just suggest to red wall mps, come out and fight for decency and show Boris he is on notice to clean up his act or go
    What makes you clain JRM has gone into hiding?. Do you have any evidence bar the fact that he isn't there. ?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    In respect of the summer exit wave and COVID response since reopening between Boris, Rishi and the Saj we've had real leadership. It's the only area I can really credit the government with, everything else has been dismal, shocking or plain corrupt.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Heathener said:

    Just popped in here. Any leaks yet on the Ipsos-Mori poll?

    Leaks? It has been published already.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,262

    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    ·
    1h
    Other than the £400,000 Geoffrey Cox is trousering as a consultant, his register of interests suggests he is doing up to 80 hours a month on outside work. Which means nearly 2 weeks each month he isn’t working as an MP. Sounds like he’s preparing for a by-election

    Of course that's not true as he is not restricted to 4O hrs per week. Lots of MPs work very long hours.
    That's not a danger Geoffrey Cox is ever going to face
  • Options
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    He was clearly talking about their response to the current stage of pandemic, rather than in general.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has not exactly been anything to gloat about. And before you say The Vaccine Programme", (which the rest of the developed world has largely caught up and surpassed us), perhaps we should remember Churchill's quote "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes". That ought to be on Johnson's political epitaph.
  • Options
    eek said:

    Aslan said:

    algarkirk said:

    It's an interesting moment. To do a 'Blair' again Labour have to do two jobs. The first is being gifted to them - to portray the government as mired in sleaze and all that, and keep it up for the next two years.

    The second is to have a broad leadership which exudes competence and clarity, and beyond doubt has better policies on offer on the subjects that are big for the key voters.

    These are things like post-Brexit strategy and vision, housing, transport, education, jobs, debt, deficit, interest rates, inflation, tax, NHS, social care, defence, the union, migration, CO2, free speech, taming the extremes of left and right, terrorism and so on.

    Because they are so behind in this they still have little chance of winning, and only a even chance of leading the next government. They should be 20 points ahead.

    Where are the killer three word slogans?

    Make Brexit Work

    Keir is sticking to this and needs to have his front bench team hammering it in every interview. We are where we are. The EU is the past, our trading relationship the future. We need to Make Brexit Work to deliver the hope that people have for our future however they voted.

    At the moment too much of the message is "Brexit doesn't work and you are stupid". Change it to "Brexit doesn't work, but it could" and its a mirror held up to Tory failure to deliver. More so if we embark on a trade war.
    Labour's biggest danger is if it looks like they will open the flood gates on unskilled immigration again.
    Possibly, though that's more wishful thinking based on the open goal they are attacking. We have a "points-based migration system" where we only offer work permits to the people we need.

    The obvious attack is that this is not working. We need people for quite a few different industries and the government refuses to engage. What is the point of controlling migration if you don't actually control it? Unless the work "control" means "stop"?
    For most people - someone turning up and taking the job they want or having english people in the shop is all they care about.

    Fix those 2 issues and for 90% of the population immigration is no longer a problem
    "having english people in the shop" is right. There's been too many voxpops done where people complain about everything from welsh people speaking welsh in Wales to needing to leave the EU because there are too many muslims. It isn't and never has been that all Brexit supporters are racist, just that all racists support Brexit.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Boris Johnson loses poll lead in wake of Tory sleaze scandal - although Labour not yet making dramatic breakthrough

    Con 35 (-4)
    Labour 36 (-)
    Greens 11 (+6)
    Lib Dems 9 (-)

    Just one poll and within margin of error etc

    h/t @nicholascecil/ @IpsosMORI
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-loses-poll-lead-ipsos-mori-sleaze-scandal-b964945.html

    Interesting point - the field work on this poll was Oct 29 - Nov 4 so much of it was *before* Paterson row dominated headlines (debate was Nov 3, U-turn Nov 4). Next one should be fascinating...

    It was mostly taken before Paterson's resignation though
    So are you expecting Cons sub 30% at the next sampling?
    No, I expect now the issue has faded the Conservatives may rebound a little
    Faded? It has barely begun.
    @HYUFD has a very complacent attitude

    Boris is at a hospital in the North East and JRM has gone into hiding with apparently Steve Barclay facing off Starmer

    The most interesting part of this afternoon debate is not Starmer's open goal but just how many conservative mps come out and attack the decision to try to keep Paterson in place

    I would just suggest to red wall mps, come out and fight for decency and show Boris he is on notice to clean up his act or go
    What makes you clain JRM has gone into hiding?. Do you have any evidence bar the fact that he isn't there. ?
    He is not leading the debate as he should be

    After all it was JRM who proposed it in the HOC
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    He was clearly talking about their response to the current stage of pandemic, rather than in general.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has not exactly been anything to gloat about. And before you say The Vaccine Programme", (which the rest of the developed world has largely caught up and surpassed us), perhaps we should remember Churchill's quote "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes". That ought to be on Johnson's political epitaph.
    But he's talking about this one specific aspect, nothing more.
  • Options
    BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,447
    Interesting piece here by David Gauke on the Paterson debacle. He's quite sympathetic to start with - has worked with Paterson and fully acknowledges his good qualities - but conclusion pretty damning.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2021/11/david-gauke-the-paterson-affair-a-tory-right-plagued-by-groupthink-a-government-careless-with-propriety-and-a-party-compromised.html

    "It is a sorry tale. An original position that failed to understand the realities of the situation and the risks that were being taken; a dogmatic refusal to seek compromise or accept responsibility; group-think on the Right of the Conservative Party and its media cheerleaders that made a difficult situation worse; a Prime Minister either beholden to the Right or exploiting them (quite possibly both); a willingness to destroy or weaken those institutions that provide checks and balances within our constitution; a requirement on Conservative MPs to support an untenable and irresponsible position; a Government acting outside the constraints of normal behaviour."
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,262
    edited November 2021
    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    It's an interesting moment. To do a 'Blair' again Labour have to do two jobs. The first is being gifted to them - to portray the government as mired in sleaze and all that, and keep it up for the next two years.

    The second is to have a broad leadership which exudes competence and clarity, and beyond doubt has better policies on offer on the subjects that are big for the key voters.

    These are things like post-Brexit strategy and vision, housing, transport, education, jobs, debt, deficit, interest rates, inflation, tax, NHS, social care, defence, the union, migration, CO2, free speech, taming the extremes of left and right, terrorism and so on.

    Because they are so behind in this they still have little chance of winning, and only a even chance of leading the next government. They should be 20 points ahead.

    Where are the killer three word slogans?

    Make Brexit Work

    Keir is sticking to this and needs to have his front bench team hammering it in every interview. We are where we are. The EU is the past, our trading relationship the future. We need to Make Brexit Work to deliver the hope that people have for our future however they voted.

    At the moment too much of the message is "Brexit doesn't work and you are stupid". Change it to "Brexit doesn't work, but it could" and its a mirror held up to Tory failure to deliver. More so if we embark on a trade war.
    Make Brexit Work'
    BREXIT ISN'T WORKING

    is a killer slogan. Reminds everyone of the demographic that matters of the crushing Saatchi and Saatchi 1979 poster: Labour isn't working.

    It tells it like it is but, as you say, doesn't make out people were stupid in the first place.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    I think that's rather harsh. In addition to the politics, everyone is trying their best.

    I was half-expecting a heavy 3rd in EU countries in the summer, but that happened less there than hear.

    We won't know where we all are until next Easter.

    I really hope BJ doesn't start doing "EU-beating" comparisons. That's the last thing we need now.
    I think the issue is that their definition of "best" was wonky to begin with. They tried to keep the virus from spreading in a largely vaccinated population so they could have fewer cases. To what end I'm not particularly sure.

    I don't think the government will make any unfavourable comparisons to the EU this winter, they didn't with the vaccine programme and left that to idiots on twitter.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Boris Johnson loses poll lead in wake of Tory sleaze scandal - although Labour not yet making dramatic breakthrough

    Con 35 (-4)
    Labour 36 (-)
    Greens 11 (+6)
    Lib Dems 9 (-)

    Just one poll and within margin of error etc

    h/t @nicholascecil/ @IpsosMORI
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-loses-poll-lead-ipsos-mori-sleaze-scandal-b964945.html

    Interesting point - the field work on this poll was Oct 29 - Nov 4 so much of it was *before* Paterson row dominated headlines (debate was Nov 3, U-turn Nov 4). Next one should be fascinating...

    It was mostly taken before Paterson's resignation though
    So are you expecting Cons sub 30% at the next sampling?
    No, I expect now the issue has faded the Conservatives may rebound a little
    Faded? It has barely begun.
    @HYUFD has a very complacent attitude

    Boris is at a hospital in the North East and JRM has gone into hiding with apparently Steve Barclay facing off Starmer

    The most interesting part of this afternoon debate is not Starmer's open goal but just how many conservative mps come out and attack the decision to try to keep Paterson in place

    I would just suggest to red wall mps, come out and fight for decency and show Boris he is on notice to clean up his act or go
    We all remember how well "nothing has changed" went down. You can't deny self-evident reality, and the fact that the PM is hiding is glaringly obvious. Why is he hiding? Its not because he is too busy or can't get back - the private jet trip to Claridges proves that.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Let's not forget this story:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/02/briefing/britain-covid-cases-restrictions.html

    Britain offers a warning of what happens when a country ignores Covid.

    Almost as good timing as Starmer calling for Plan B.
    Or CNN's Amanpour the other day interviewing the Prime Minister saying that cases were "spiking" in the UK, when they'd been going down for two weeks already. That went viral quoted by a few here - long may cases continue to spike downwards.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,262
    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    Just popped in here. Any leaks yet on the Ipsos-Mori poll?

    Leaks? It has been published already.
    Tell me more. I don't live on this site, nor indeed any other political ones.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,631

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Boris Johnson loses poll lead in wake of Tory sleaze scandal - although Labour not yet making dramatic breakthrough

    Con 35 (-4)
    Labour 36 (-)
    Greens 11 (+6)
    Lib Dems 9 (-)

    Just one poll and within margin of error etc

    h/t @nicholascecil/ @IpsosMORI
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-loses-poll-lead-ipsos-mori-sleaze-scandal-b964945.html

    Interesting point - the field work on this poll was Oct 29 - Nov 4 so much of it was *before* Paterson row dominated headlines (debate was Nov 3, U-turn Nov 4). Next one should be fascinating...

    It was mostly taken before Paterson's resignation though
    So are you expecting Cons sub 30% at the next sampling?
    No, I expect now the issue has faded the Conservatives may rebound a little
    Boris's wallpaper may have faded, but I'm not convinced the Paterson debacle has yet.
    Does that mean the wallpaper needs changing again?
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,262
    Heathener said:

    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    Just popped in here. Any leaks yet on the Ipsos-Mori poll?

    Leaks? It has been published already.
    Tell me more. I don't live on this site, nor indeed any other political ones.
    Okay got it.

    Nice one.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Heathener said:

    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    Just popped in here. Any leaks yet on the Ipsos-Mori poll?

    Leaks? It has been published already.
    Tell me more. I don't live on this site, nor indeed any other political ones.
    I found this from a couple of pages back.
    dr_spyn said:

    The Ipsos MORI survey for The Standard put the Conservatives on 35 per cent, down four points on September, Labour unchanged on 36 per cent, the Greens up a startling five points to 11 per cent, and Liberal Democrats unchanged on nine per cent.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-loses-poll-lead-ipsos-mori-sleaze-scandal-b964945.html

    Beginning of the end, or merely the end of the beginning for Boris Johnson?

  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,298
    edited November 2021
    Heathener said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    It's an interesting moment. To do a 'Blair' again Labour have to do two jobs. The first is being gifted to them - to portray the government as mired in sleaze and all that, and keep it up for the next two years.

    The second is to have a broad leadership which exudes competence and clarity, and beyond doubt has better policies on offer on the subjects that are big for the key voters.

    These are things like post-Brexit strategy and vision, housing, transport, education, jobs, debt, deficit, interest rates, inflation, tax, NHS, social care, defence, the union, migration, CO2, free speech, taming the extremes of left and right, terrorism and so on.

    Because they are so behind in this they still have little chance of winning, and only a even chance of leading the next government. They should be 20 points ahead.

    Where are the killer three word slogans?

    Make Brexit Work

    Keir is sticking to this and needs to have his front bench team hammering it in every interview. We are where we are. The EU is the past, our trading relationship the future. We need to Make Brexit Work to deliver the hope that people have for our future however they voted.

    At the moment too much of the message is "Brexit doesn't work and you are stupid". Change it to "Brexit doesn't work, but it could" and its a mirror held up to Tory failure to deliver. More so if we embark on a trade war.
    Make Brexit Work'
    BREXIT ISN'T WORKING

    is a killer slogan. Reminds everyone of the demographic that matters of the crushing Saatchi and Saatchi 1979 poster: Labour isn't working.

    It tells it like it is but, as you say, doesn't make out people were stupid in the first place.
    The response to make Brexit work is just how and will that include free movement of labour

    Starmer to be fair yesterday ruled out re-joining the EU so he will need a clear policy on how he is to make it work, not just soundbites
  • Options

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    He was clearly talking about their response to the current stage of pandemic, rather than in general.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has not exactly been anything to gloat about. And before you say The Vaccine Programme", (which the rest of the developed world has largely caught up and surpassed us), perhaps we should remember Churchill's quote "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes". That ought to be on Johnson's political epitaph.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has been the best in Europe.

    We've been able to be out of restrictions for five months and counting now, while almost no other nation in Europe has been. We've got herd immunity with zero restrictions and are going into the winter able to live our lives while other countries are now contemplating lockdown.

    The two biggest issues of the pandemic have been the vaccines and when to drop restrictions. The UK has got both of those big calls right; facilitated by the vaccine rollout being able to drop all restrictions in the summer and having our exit wave over and done with before winter flu hits was absolutely the right call.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    In respect of the summer exit wave and COVID response since reopening between Boris, Rishi and the Saj we've had real leadership. It's the only area I can really credit the government with, everything else has been dismal, shocking or plain corrupt.
    Yes, well credit to you, unlike many of the pro-Brexity posters you don't seem to think Johnson walks on water. I am not sure anything from Johnson could be described as "real leadership"; he really has no clue. As I said on the other post, quoting the Great Man : "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes".
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,262
    The biggest problem for Boris Johnson is that almost all of his MPs know full well that he doesn't have what it takes to be Prime Minister.

    They were just rather hoping the British public wouldn't twig. Now they have.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,981

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Boris Johnson loses poll lead in wake of Tory sleaze scandal - although Labour not yet making dramatic breakthrough

    Con 35 (-4)
    Labour 36 (-)
    Greens 11 (+6)
    Lib Dems 9 (-)

    Just one poll and within margin of error etc

    h/t @nicholascecil/ @IpsosMORI
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-loses-poll-lead-ipsos-mori-sleaze-scandal-b964945.html

    Interesting point - the field work on this poll was Oct 29 - Nov 4 so much of it was *before* Paterson row dominated headlines (debate was Nov 3, U-turn Nov 4). Next one should be fascinating...

    It was mostly taken before Paterson's resignation though
    So are you expecting Cons sub 30% at the next sampling?
    No, I expect now the issue has faded the Conservatives may rebound a little
    Faded? It has barely begun.
    @HYUFD has a very complacent attitude

    Boris is at a hospital in the North East and JRM has gone into hiding with apparently Steve Barclay facing off Starmer

    The most interesting part of this afternoon debate is not Starmer's open goal but just how many conservative mps come out and attack the decision to try to keep Paterson in place

    I would just suggest to red wall mps, come out and fight for decency and show Boris he is on notice to clean up his act or go
    What makes you clain JRM has gone into hiding?. Do you have any evidence bar the fact that he isn't there. ?
    Leader of the house on a debate about the discipline procedures within the house. You would expect anyone so closely involved to be attending the debate.
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,353
    Heathener said:

    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    ·
    1h
    Other than the £400,000 Geoffrey Cox is trousering as a consultant, his register of interests suggests he is doing up to 80 hours a month on outside work. Which means nearly 2 weeks each month he isn’t working as an MP. Sounds like he’s preparing for a by-election

    Of course that's not true as he is not restricted to 4O hrs per week. Lots of MPs work very long hours.
    That's not a danger Geoffrey Cox is ever going to face
    Nevertheless the point remains correct
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,262

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    He was clearly talking about their response to the current stage of pandemic, rather than in general.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has not exactly been anything to gloat about. And before you say The Vaccine Programme", (which the rest of the developed world has largely caught up and surpassed us), perhaps we should remember Churchill's quote "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes". That ought to be on Johnson's political epitaph.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has been the best in Europe.

    Such a joke it's not even worth replying
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,109
    edited November 2021
    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    Some examples might be useful. It might be they are enjoying schadenfreude, rather than taking delight in the suffering of others.
    Lol.
    Only Remoaner Quislings bother learning the meaning of furrin words.

    Definition of schadenfreude
    : enjoyment obtained from the troubles of others
  • Options

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    He was clearly talking about their response to the current stage of pandemic, rather than in general.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has not exactly been anything to gloat about. And before you say The Vaccine Programme", (which the rest of the developed world has largely caught up and surpassed us), perhaps we should remember Churchill's quote "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes". That ought to be on Johnson's political epitaph.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has been the best in Europe.

    We've been able to be out of restrictions for five months and counting now, while almost no other nation in Europe has been. We've got herd immunity with zero restrictions and are going into the winter able to live our lives while other countries are now contemplating lockdown.

    The two biggest issues of the pandemic have been the vaccines and when to drop restrictions. The UK has got both of those big calls right; facilitated by the vaccine rollout being able to drop all restrictions in the summer and having our exit wave over and done with before winter flu hits was absolutely the right call.
    Well, Philip, you have said some really dumb things in th emany many hours you spend on here pointlessly defending the pointless, but this one tops the lot in terms of ignorance:

    "HMG's handling of the pandemic has been the best in Europe."

    hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
  • Options
    Heathener said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    He was clearly talking about their response to the current stage of pandemic, rather than in general.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has not exactly been anything to gloat about. And before you say The Vaccine Programme", (which the rest of the developed world has largely caught up and surpassed us), perhaps we should remember Churchill's quote "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes". That ought to be on Johnson's political epitaph.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has been the best in Europe.

    Such a joke it's not even worth replying
    And yet you did.

    But not with any substantive points, because even you know I'm right.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,263
    Heathener said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    It's an interesting moment. To do a 'Blair' again Labour have to do two jobs. The first is being gifted to them - to portray the government as mired in sleaze and all that, and keep it up for the next two years.

    The second is to have a broad leadership which exudes competence and clarity, and beyond doubt has better policies on offer on the subjects that are big for the key voters.

    These are things like post-Brexit strategy and vision, housing, transport, education, jobs, debt, deficit, interest rates, inflation, tax, NHS, social care, defence, the union, migration, CO2, free speech, taming the extremes of left and right, terrorism and so on.

    Because they are so behind in this they still have little chance of winning, and only a even chance of leading the next government. They should be 20 points ahead.

    Where are the killer three word slogans?

    Make Brexit Work

    Keir is sticking to this and needs to have his front bench team hammering it in every interview. We are where we are. The EU is the past, our trading relationship the future. We need to Make Brexit Work to deliver the hope that people have for our future however they voted.

    At the moment too much of the message is "Brexit doesn't work and you are stupid". Change it to "Brexit doesn't work, but it could" and its a mirror held up to Tory failure to deliver. More so if we embark on a trade war.
    Make Brexit Work'
    BREXIT ISN'T WORKING

    is a killer slogan. Reminds everyone of the demographic that matters of the crushing Saatchi and Saatchi 1979 poster: Labour isn't working.

    It tells it like it is but, as you say, doesn't make out people were stupid in the first place.
    The problem is that, in 1979, the voters could simply vote Tory to get rid of Labour. At the next GE Labour will not be offering the voters the opportunity to get rid of Brexit, so you can't campaign on the "Brexit isn't working" slogan.

    That's why "Make Brexit Work" is better. Can Labour convince Leave voters to trust them to do so?
  • Options
    Ms. Heathener, but it implies that the Labour Party will advocate rejoining.

    And while that will enthuse some (almost all of whom would vote Labour anyway) it would antagonize more people, both those who wanted us out, and those who are lukewarm either way but do not want to return to a referendum and, potentially, even more negotiating.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    Some examples might be useful. It might be they are enjoying schadenfreude, rather than taking delight in the suffering of others.
    Lol.
    Only Remoaners bother learning the meaning of furrin words.

    Definition of schadenfreude
    : enjoyment obtained from the troubles of others
    Hah, yeah, good point. I suppose I mean the enjoyment of commentators having to eat crow after having bleated on about the UK case rate being some sort of disaster.
  • Options

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    He was clearly talking about their response to the current stage of pandemic, rather than in general.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has not exactly been anything to gloat about. And before you say The Vaccine Programme", (which the rest of the developed world has largely caught up and surpassed us), perhaps we should remember Churchill's quote "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes". That ought to be on Johnson's political epitaph.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has been the best in Europe.

    We've been able to be out of restrictions for five months and counting now, while almost no other nation in Europe has been. We've got herd immunity with zero restrictions and are going into the winter able to live our lives while other countries are now contemplating lockdown.

    The two biggest issues of the pandemic have been the vaccines and when to drop restrictions. The UK has got both of those big calls right; facilitated by the vaccine rollout being able to drop all restrictions in the summer and having our exit wave over and done with before winter flu hits was absolutely the right call.
    Well, Philip, you have said some really dumb things in th emany many hours you spend on here pointlessly defending the pointless, but this one tops the lot in terms of ignorance:

    "HMG's handling of the pandemic has been the best in Europe."

    hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
    If any other country handled the pandemic better then please name any other country in Europe that was able to drop all legal restrictions before the UK?

    If they'd done better, they'd have been able to do so. Who was it?
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,262
    Blimey!!!!

    "The poll was largely conducted before the Owen Paterson sleaze scandal exploded at Westminster."

  • Options

    Heathener said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    It's an interesting moment. To do a 'Blair' again Labour have to do two jobs. The first is being gifted to them - to portray the government as mired in sleaze and all that, and keep it up for the next two years.

    The second is to have a broad leadership which exudes competence and clarity, and beyond doubt has better policies on offer on the subjects that are big for the key voters.

    These are things like post-Brexit strategy and vision, housing, transport, education, jobs, debt, deficit, interest rates, inflation, tax, NHS, social care, defence, the union, migration, CO2, free speech, taming the extremes of left and right, terrorism and so on.

    Because they are so behind in this they still have little chance of winning, and only a even chance of leading the next government. They should be 20 points ahead.

    Where are the killer three word slogans?

    Make Brexit Work

    Keir is sticking to this and needs to have his front bench team hammering it in every interview. We are where we are. The EU is the past, our trading relationship the future. We need to Make Brexit Work to deliver the hope that people have for our future however they voted.

    At the moment too much of the message is "Brexit doesn't work and you are stupid". Change it to "Brexit doesn't work, but it could" and its a mirror held up to Tory failure to deliver. More so if we embark on a trade war.
    Make Brexit Work'
    BREXIT ISN'T WORKING

    is a killer slogan. Reminds everyone of the demographic that matters of the crushing Saatchi and Saatchi 1979 poster: Labour isn't working.

    It tells it like it is but, as you say, doesn't make out people were stupid in the first place.
    The problem is that, in 1979, the voters could simply vote Tory to get rid of Labour. At the next GE Labour will not be offering the voters the opportunity to get rid of Brexit, so you can't campaign on the "Brexit isn't working" slogan.

    That's why "Make Brexit Work" is better. Can Labour convince Leave voters to trust them to do so?
    They could convince me but they need to explain how
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,353
    edited November 2021
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Boris Johnson loses poll lead in wake of Tory sleaze scandal - although Labour not yet making dramatic breakthrough

    Con 35 (-4)
    Labour 36 (-)
    Greens 11 (+6)
    Lib Dems 9 (-)

    Just one poll and within margin of error etc

    h/t @nicholascecil/ @IpsosMORI
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-loses-poll-lead-ipsos-mori-sleaze-scandal-b964945.html

    Interesting point - the field work on this poll was Oct 29 - Nov 4 so much of it was *before* Paterson row dominated headlines (debate was Nov 3, U-turn Nov 4). Next one should be fascinating...

    It was mostly taken before Paterson's resignation though
    So are you expecting Cons sub 30% at the next sampling?
    No, I expect now the issue has faded the Conservatives may rebound a little
    Faded? It has barely begun.
    @HYUFD has a very complacent attitude

    Boris is at a hospital in the North East and JRM has gone into hiding with apparently Steve Barclay facing off Starmer

    The most interesting part of this afternoon debate is not Starmer's open goal but just how many conservative mps come out and attack the decision to try to keep Paterson in place

    I would just suggest to red wall mps, come out and fight for decency and show Boris he is on notice to clean up his act or go
    What makes you clain JRM has gone into hiding?. Do you have any evidence bar the fact that he isn't there. ?
    Leader of the house on a debate about the discipline procedures within the house. You would expect anyone so closely involved to be attending the debate.
    Missing the point again. You claim he has gone into hiding with no evidence to back up your assertion bar the fact that he isn't there. A sort of general smear.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,262

    Heathener said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    He was clearly talking about their response to the current stage of pandemic, rather than in general.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has not exactly been anything to gloat about. And before you say The Vaccine Programme", (which the rest of the developed world has largely caught up and surpassed us), perhaps we should remember Churchill's quote "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes". That ought to be on Johnson's political epitaph.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has been the best in Europe.

    Such a joke it's not even worth replying
    And yet you did.

    But not with any substantive points, because even you know I'm right.
    No I just don't think you're worth my time and energy. So I didn't and won't.

    Leaving it there.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,225

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    RobD said:

    It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.

    A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.

    I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.

    Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.

    By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.

    I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
    Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
    Thank you for proving my point!
    Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
    Just out of interest how old are you @HYUFD ? That comment puts you over 40 if you could vote in 97. I don't know why but I imagined you as late 20s or early 30s. My guess wasn't actually based on anything really.
    I am just under 40, I could not vote in 1997 but I did canvass with a friend's mother who was a local Tory member.

    I attended my first campaign rally in 1992 for Major in rural Gravesham when he was on his soapbox and have been involved campaigning for the Conservatives in some capacity in every general election since
    Life begins at 40. Ask yourself what your values and principles are, then look at the party you are attached to like a limpet and realise you parted ways morally a long time before.

    If you are a Majorite Tory why are you condoning Borisite blue Labour policies that you have opposed all this time? What is the point in you keeping Labour out only to do what Labour do? If you are a Majorite Tory why condone outrageous corruption?

    That moment of absolute clarity when you realise the party is beneath you and you walk away is golden. I hope you enjoy it - and the personal cleansing of your own morality - as much as I did.
    I am not a Majorite Tory, I am just a Tory.

    I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris (and briefly met Thatcher once at a reception)
    And the rest? You'll back your party regardless of what it does or how it clashes with your own principles because it's your party?

    Like a football team in other words.
    To defend H here since I'm feeling robust and contrarian today. I think it's possible to be a lifelong Tory, come what may, without loss of integrity. Eg if your politics is driven by an aversion to the left you'll always support the only party of the right with a chance of government, ie the Cons. This is me too but in the opposite way. I've supported every iteration of Labour since I first got interested in politics as a teenager. Why? Because they're the only party of the left with a chance of government. I'm Labour like a football team in this sense. Callaghan, yes. Foot, yes. Kinnock, yes. Blair, yes. Brown, yes. Miliband, yes. Corbyn, yes. And now Starmer - Yes. My enthusiasm waxes and wanes, and I only joined in 2017, but my vote can be counted on. The one and only thing that could stop me voting Labour would be if we went for a populist charlatan as leader.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,007

    Ms. Heathener, but it implies that the Labour Party will advocate rejoining.

    And while that will enthuse some (almost all of whom would vote Labour anyway) it would antagonize more people, both those who wanted us out, and those who are lukewarm either way but do not want to return to a referendum and, potentially, even more negotiating.

    They won't, Starmer would largely campaign on closer alignment to the SM and CU in terms of regulations and to appease the SNP and LDs who he would need to become PM. However he would also likely campaign to keep the current points system with maybe a bit more leeway in shortage areas, to win over the Redwall
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    He was clearly talking about their response to the current stage of pandemic, rather than in general.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has not exactly been anything to gloat about. And before you say The Vaccine Programme", (which the rest of the developed world has largely caught up and surpassed us), perhaps we should remember Churchill's quote "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes". That ought to be on Johnson's political epitaph.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has been the best in Europe.

    We've been able to be out of restrictions for five months and counting now, while almost no other nation in Europe has been. We've got herd immunity with zero restrictions and are going into the winter able to live our lives while other countries are now contemplating lockdown.

    The two biggest issues of the pandemic have been the vaccines and when to drop restrictions. The UK has got both of those big calls right; facilitated by the vaccine rollout being able to drop all restrictions in the summer and having our exit wave over and done with before winter flu hits was absolutely the right call.
    Double the deaths per capita of Germany, higher than France, Portugal, Spain etc.?
    Compare us to EU countries, we'd be 18th out of 28 on that metric.

    A fair-minded commentator would not exclude that pretty important way of looking at the overall success of our handling of it.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,007
    edited November 2021
    Heathener said:

    Blimey!!!!

    "The poll was largely conducted before the Owen Paterson sleaze scandal exploded at Westminster."

    After the vote but before his resignation
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,262

    Ms. Heathener, but it implies that the Labour Party will advocate rejoining.

    And while that will enthuse some (almost all of whom would vote Labour anyway) it would antagonize more people, both those who wanted us out, and those who are lukewarm either way but do not want to return to a referendum and, potentially, even more negotiating.

    I'm not so sure. I'm a great believer, depressing though it may be, in the power of negative advertising. You don't have to offer an alternative on a billboard. 'Labour isn't working' didn't actually have a giant tory caption. All they need to put is a little Vote Labour marker in the bottom corner.

    It's about overt and subliminal messaging. If you hammer home what most everyone now realises, namely that Brexit isn't working, Boris Johnson goes down with it.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,007
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    RobD said:

    It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.

    A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.

    I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.

    Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.

    By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.

    I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
    Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
    Thank you for proving my point!
    Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
    Just out of interest how old are you @HYUFD ? That comment puts you over 40 if you could vote in 97. I don't know why but I imagined you as late 20s or early 30s. My guess wasn't actually based on anything really.
    I am just under 40, I could not vote in 1997 but I did canvass with a friend's mother who was a local Tory member.

    I attended my first campaign rally in 1992 for Major in rural Gravesham when he was on his soapbox and have been involved campaigning for the Conservatives in some capacity in every general election since
    Life begins at 40. Ask yourself what your values and principles are, then look at the party you are attached to like a limpet and realise you parted ways morally a long time before.

    If you are a Majorite Tory why are you condoning Borisite blue Labour policies that you have opposed all this time? What is the point in you keeping Labour out only to do what Labour do? If you are a Majorite Tory why condone outrageous corruption?

    That moment of absolute clarity when you realise the party is beneath you and you walk away is golden. I hope you enjoy it - and the personal cleansing of your own morality - as much as I did.
    I am not a Majorite Tory, I am just a Tory.

    I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris (and briefly met Thatcher once at a reception)
    And the rest? You'll back your party regardless of what it does or how it clashes with your own principles because it's your party?

    Like a football team in other words.
    To defend H here since I'm feeling robust and contrarian today. I think it's possible to be a lifelong Tory, come what may, without loss of integrity. Eg if your politics is driven by an aversion to the left you'll always support the only party of the right with a chance of government, ie the Cons. This is me too but in the opposite way. I've supported every iteration of Labour since I first got interested in politics as a teenager. Why? Because they're the only party of the left with a chance of government. I'm Labour like a football team in this sense. Callaghan, yes. Foot, yes. Kinnock, yes. Blair, yes. Brown, yes. Miliband, yes. Corbyn, yes. And now Starmer - Yes. My enthusiasm waxes and wanes, and I only joined in 2017, but my vote can be counted on. The one and only thing that could stop me voting Labour would be if we went for a populist charlatan as leader.
    Not even that, as you voted for Corbyn too
  • Options
    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    He was clearly talking about their response to the current stage of pandemic, rather than in general.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has not exactly been anything to gloat about. And before you say The Vaccine Programme", (which the rest of the developed world has largely caught up and surpassed us), perhaps we should remember Churchill's quote "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes". That ought to be on Johnson's political epitaph.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has been the best in Europe.

    We've been able to be out of restrictions for five months and counting now, while almost no other nation in Europe has been. We've got herd immunity with zero restrictions and are going into the winter able to live our lives while other countries are now contemplating lockdown.

    The two biggest issues of the pandemic have been the vaccines and when to drop restrictions. The UK has got both of those big calls right; facilitated by the vaccine rollout being able to drop all restrictions in the summer and having our exit wave over and done with before winter flu hits was absolutely the right call.
    Double the deaths per capita of Germany, higher than France, Portugal, Spain etc.?
    Compare us to EU countries, we'd be 18th out of 28 on that metric.

    A fair-minded commentator would not exclude that pretty important way of looking at the overall success of our handling of it.
    Its way down the list in order of importance.

    Life is more important than death. How many months have they wasted under legal restrictions? How many lives equivalent is that?
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,263

    Heathener said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    It's an interesting moment. To do a 'Blair' again Labour have to do two jobs. The first is being gifted to them - to portray the government as mired in sleaze and all that, and keep it up for the next two years.

    The second is to have a broad leadership which exudes competence and clarity, and beyond doubt has better policies on offer on the subjects that are big for the key voters.

    These are things like post-Brexit strategy and vision, housing, transport, education, jobs, debt, deficit, interest rates, inflation, tax, NHS, social care, defence, the union, migration, CO2, free speech, taming the extremes of left and right, terrorism and so on.

    Because they are so behind in this they still have little chance of winning, and only a even chance of leading the next government. They should be 20 points ahead.

    Where are the killer three word slogans?

    Make Brexit Work

    Keir is sticking to this and needs to have his front bench team hammering it in every interview. We are where we are. The EU is the past, our trading relationship the future. We need to Make Brexit Work to deliver the hope that people have for our future however they voted.

    At the moment too much of the message is "Brexit doesn't work and you are stupid". Change it to "Brexit doesn't work, but it could" and its a mirror held up to Tory failure to deliver. More so if we embark on a trade war.
    Make Brexit Work'
    BREXIT ISN'T WORKING

    is a killer slogan. Reminds everyone of the demographic that matters of the crushing Saatchi and Saatchi 1979 poster: Labour isn't working.

    It tells it like it is but, as you say, doesn't make out people were stupid in the first place.
    The problem is that, in 1979, the voters could simply vote Tory to get rid of Labour. At the next GE Labour will not be offering the voters the opportunity to get rid of Brexit, so you can't campaign on the "Brexit isn't working" slogan.

    That's why "Make Brexit Work" is better. Can Labour convince Leave voters to trust them to do so?
    They could convince me but they need to explain how
    There would need to be a lot done to convince people and, in theory, you should be easier to convince because you voted Remain anyway.

    I think the strategy is right, but the implementation is unlikely to convince in time for the next GE.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Bad Al looking like a raving lunatic on Politics Live.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    He was clearly talking about their response to the current stage of pandemic, rather than in general.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has not exactly been anything to gloat about. And before you say The Vaccine Programme", (which the rest of the developed world has largely caught up and surpassed us), perhaps we should remember Churchill's quote "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes". That ought to be on Johnson's political epitaph.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has been the best in Europe.

    We've been able to be out of restrictions for five months and counting now, while almost no other nation in Europe has been. We've got herd immunity with zero restrictions and are going into the winter able to live our lives while other countries are now contemplating lockdown.

    The two biggest issues of the pandemic have been the vaccines and when to drop restrictions. The UK has got both of those big calls right; facilitated by the vaccine rollout being able to drop all restrictions in the summer and having our exit wave over and done with before winter flu hits was absolutely the right call.
    Double the deaths per capita of Germany, higher than France, Portugal, Spain etc.?
    Compare us to EU countries, we'd be 18th out of 28 on that metric.

    A fair-minded commentator would not exclude that pretty important way of looking at the overall success of our handling of it.
    Its way down the list in order of importance.

    Life is more important than death. How many months have they wasted under legal restrictions? How many lives equivalent is that?
    Philip, no. The overall death rate is really very important. I'm a little sad that I even need to assert this.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    If I were an MP nowadays, I'd be *very* careful about putting in for even reasonable expenses, leaving me significantly out-of-pocket. And that's unreasonable.

    It is the same for councillors. Screaming abuse every time expenses are published. The more obvious the expense (childcare as one example), the worse the abuse. I know quite a few councillors, most claim very little despite spending quite a lot.
    Childcare is a great example, because it’s a big expense that most voters have to pay out of their own pocket when they go to work.
    But councillors don't get paid a proper salary as far as I know. So claiming it on expenses seems reasonable, unless you think that people with childcare responsibilities shouldn't become councillors.
    My understanding was that most councillors were paid ‘allowances’ already. I agree that for unpaid positions, reasonable expenses for a child minder are obviously okay.
    Allowances vary wildly around the country (though I believe in Wales the amount is set uniformly, which makes more sense). It is not much in many places, recognising the role is not full time (and those that are more full time in practice get special responsibility allowances). Childcare expenses are only reasonable as part of the cover.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    dr_spyn said:

    Lawyers outraged as Geoffrey Cox MP, QC declares his hourly rate.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1457643070728675328

    For barrister work or audiobook narration?
  • Options

    Heathener said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    It's an interesting moment. To do a 'Blair' again Labour have to do two jobs. The first is being gifted to them - to portray the government as mired in sleaze and all that, and keep it up for the next two years.

    The second is to have a broad leadership which exudes competence and clarity, and beyond doubt has better policies on offer on the subjects that are big for the key voters.

    These are things like post-Brexit strategy and vision, housing, transport, education, jobs, debt, deficit, interest rates, inflation, tax, NHS, social care, defence, the union, migration, CO2, free speech, taming the extremes of left and right, terrorism and so on.

    Because they are so behind in this they still have little chance of winning, and only a even chance of leading the next government. They should be 20 points ahead.

    Where are the killer three word slogans?

    Make Brexit Work

    Keir is sticking to this and needs to have his front bench team hammering it in every interview. We are where we are. The EU is the past, our trading relationship the future. We need to Make Brexit Work to deliver the hope that people have for our future however they voted.

    At the moment too much of the message is "Brexit doesn't work and you are stupid". Change it to "Brexit doesn't work, but it could" and its a mirror held up to Tory failure to deliver. More so if we embark on a trade war.
    Make Brexit Work'
    BREXIT ISN'T WORKING

    is a killer slogan. Reminds everyone of the demographic that matters of the crushing Saatchi and Saatchi 1979 poster: Labour isn't working.

    It tells it like it is but, as you say, doesn't make out people were stupid in the first place.
    The problem is that, in 1979, the voters could simply vote Tory to get rid of Labour. At the next GE Labour will not be offering the voters the opportunity to get rid of Brexit, so you can't campaign on the "Brexit isn't working" slogan.

    That's why "Make Brexit Work" is better. Can Labour convince Leave voters to trust them to do so?
    They could convince me but they need to explain how
    There would need to be a lot done to convince people and, in theory, you should be easier to convince because you voted Remain anyway.

    I think the strategy is right, but the implementation is unlikely to convince in time for the next GE.
    I do want to improve brexit but not at the cost of free movement and certainly not at any attempt to rejoin

    I will listen very carefully to labour's offering at the next GE
  • Options
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    He was clearly talking about their response to the current stage of pandemic, rather than in general.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has not exactly been anything to gloat about. And before you say The Vaccine Programme", (which the rest of the developed world has largely caught up and surpassed us), perhaps we should remember Churchill's quote "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes". That ought to be on Johnson's political epitaph.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has been the best in Europe.

    We've been able to be out of restrictions for five months and counting now, while almost no other nation in Europe has been. We've got herd immunity with zero restrictions and are going into the winter able to live our lives while other countries are now contemplating lockdown.

    The two biggest issues of the pandemic have been the vaccines and when to drop restrictions. The UK has got both of those big calls right; facilitated by the vaccine rollout being able to drop all restrictions in the summer and having our exit wave over and done with before winter flu hits was absolutely the right call.
    Double the deaths per capita of Germany, higher than France, Portugal, Spain etc.?
    Compare us to EU countries, we'd be 18th out of 28 on that metric.

    A fair-minded commentator would not exclude that pretty important way of looking at the overall success of our handling of it.
    Its way down the list in order of importance.

    Life is more important than death. How many months have they wasted under legal restrictions? How many lives equivalent is that?
    Philip, no. The overall death rate is really very important. I'm a little sad that I even need to assert this.
    Why?
  • Options

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Boris Johnson loses poll lead in wake of Tory sleaze scandal - although Labour not yet making dramatic breakthrough

    Con 35 (-4)
    Labour 36 (-)
    Greens 11 (+6)
    Lib Dems 9 (-)

    Just one poll and within margin of error etc

    h/t @nicholascecil/ @IpsosMORI
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-loses-poll-lead-ipsos-mori-sleaze-scandal-b964945.html

    Interesting point - the field work on this poll was Oct 29 - Nov 4 so much of it was *before* Paterson row dominated headlines (debate was Nov 3, U-turn Nov 4). Next one should be fascinating...

    It was mostly taken before Paterson's resignation though
    So are you expecting Cons sub 30% at the next sampling?
    No, I expect now the issue has faded the Conservatives may rebound a little
    Faded? It has barely begun.
    @HYUFD has a very complacent attitude

    Boris is at a hospital in the North East and JRM has gone into hiding with apparently Steve Barclay facing off Starmer

    The most interesting part of this afternoon debate is not Starmer's open goal but just how many conservative mps come out and attack the decision to try to keep Paterson in place

    I would just suggest to red wall mps, come out and fight for decency and show Boris he is on notice to clean up his act or go
    What makes you clain JRM has gone into hiding?. Do you have any evidence bar the fact that he isn't there. ?
    Leader of the house on a debate about the discipline procedures within the house. You would expect anyone so closely involved to be attending the debate.
    Missing the point again. You claim he has gone into hiding with no evidence to back up your assertion bar the fact that he isn't there. A sort of general smear.
    Sort of reverse Jezza: I was not present at debate but I think I was involved.
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    He was clearly talking about their response to the current stage of pandemic, rather than in general.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has not exactly been anything to gloat about. And before you say The Vaccine Programme", (which the rest of the developed world has largely caught up and surpassed us), perhaps we should remember Churchill's quote "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes". That ought to be on Johnson's political epitaph.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has been the best in Europe.

    We've been able to be out of restrictions for five months and counting now, while almost no other nation in Europe has been. We've got herd immunity with zero restrictions and are going into the winter able to live our lives while other countries are now contemplating lockdown.
    Sweden was better on restrictions.

    But they cocked up on vaccines of course.

  • Options

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    He was clearly talking about their response to the current stage of pandemic, rather than in general.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has not exactly been anything to gloat about. And before you say The Vaccine Programme", (which the rest of the developed world has largely caught up and surpassed us), perhaps we should remember Churchill's quote "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes". That ought to be on Johnson's political epitaph.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has been the best in Europe.

    We've been able to be out of restrictions for five months and counting now, while almost no other nation in Europe has been. We've got herd immunity with zero restrictions and are going into the winter able to live our lives while other countries are now contemplating lockdown.

    The two biggest issues of the pandemic have been the vaccines and when to drop restrictions. The UK has got both of those big calls right; facilitated by the vaccine rollout being able to drop all restrictions in the summer and having our exit wave over and done with before winter flu hits was absolutely the right call.
    Double the deaths per capita of Germany, higher than France, Portugal, Spain etc.?
    Compare us to EU countries, we'd be 18th out of 28 on that metric.

    A fair-minded commentator would not exclude that pretty important way of looking at the overall success of our handling of it.
    Its way down the list in order of importance.

    Life is more important than death. How many months have they wasted under legal restrictions? How many lives equivalent is that?
    Philip, no. The overall death rate is really very important. I'm a little sad that I even need to assert this.
    Why?
    'Most of them would have died anyway'
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,631
    edited November 2021
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    RobD said:

    It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.

    A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.

    I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.

    Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.

    By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.

    I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
    Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
    Thank you for proving my point!
    Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
    Just out of interest how old are you @HYUFD ? That comment puts you over 40 if you could vote in 97. I don't know why but I imagined you as late 20s or early 30s. My guess wasn't actually based on anything really.
    I am just under 40, I could not vote in 1997 but I did canvass with a friend's mother who was a local Tory member.

    I attended my first campaign rally in 1992 for Major in rural Gravesham when he was on his soapbox and have been involved campaigning for the Conservatives in some capacity in every general election since
    Life begins at 40. Ask yourself what your values and principles are, then look at the party you are attached to like a limpet and realise you parted ways morally a long time before.

    If you are a Majorite Tory why are you condoning Borisite blue Labour policies that you have opposed all this time? What is the point in you keeping Labour out only to do what Labour do? If you are a Majorite Tory why condone outrageous corruption?

    That moment of absolute clarity when you realise the party is beneath you and you walk away is golden. I hope you enjoy it - and the personal cleansing of your own morality - as much as I did.
    I am not a Majorite Tory, I am just a Tory.

    I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris (and briefly met Thatcher once at a reception)
    And the rest? You'll back your party regardless of what it does or how it clashes with your own principles because it's your party?

    Like a football team in other words.
    To defend H here since I'm feeling robust and contrarian today. I think it's possible to be a lifelong Tory, come what may, without loss of integrity. Eg if your politics is driven by an aversion to the left you'll always support the only party of the right with a chance of government, ie the Cons. This is me too but in the opposite way. I've supported every iteration of Labour since I first got interested in politics as a teenager. Why? Because they're the only party of the left with a chance of government. I'm Labour like a football team in this sense. Callaghan, yes. Foot, yes. Kinnock, yes. Blair, yes. Brown, yes. Miliband, yes. Corbyn, yes. And now Starmer - Yes. My enthusiasm waxes and wanes, and I only joined in 2017, but my vote can be counted on. The one and only thing that could stop me voting Labour would be if we went for a populist charlatan as leader.
    Good point. I don't feel as if I have any allegiance to one party (a bit like the discussion we had on being British) yet I have always been a Liberal/Lib Dem and for most of that time a member and activity involved, because they have always best reflected my views. I have however declined to vote Liberal on a few occasions, usually it was to avoid voting for a pillock or because I preferred an Indy in a local election.
  • Options
    Fishing said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    He was clearly talking about their response to the current stage of pandemic, rather than in general.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has not exactly been anything to gloat about. And before you say The Vaccine Programme", (which the rest of the developed world has largely caught up and surpassed us), perhaps we should remember Churchill's quote "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes". That ought to be on Johnson's political epitaph.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has been the best in Europe.

    We've been able to be out of restrictions for five months and counting now, while almost no other nation in Europe has been. We've got herd immunity with zero restrictions and are going into the winter able to live our lives while other countries are now contemplating lockdown.
    Sweden was better on restrictions.

    But they cocked up on vaccines of course.

    Sweden was better early on, with restrictions, but then they couldn't hold out and had to go into restrictions afterall and kept them much later too, I believe.

    Had they come through the pandemic without having to reverse track then yes absolutely they'd have been the best by far, but they didn't, did they?
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,263
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    He was clearly talking about their response to the current stage of pandemic, rather than in general.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has not exactly been anything to gloat about. And before you say The Vaccine Programme", (which the rest of the developed world has largely caught up and surpassed us), perhaps we should remember Churchill's quote "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes". That ought to be on Johnson's political epitaph.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has been the best in Europe.

    We've been able to be out of restrictions for five months and counting now, while almost no other nation in Europe has been. We've got herd immunity with zero restrictions and are going into the winter able to live our lives while other countries are now contemplating lockdown.

    The two biggest issues of the pandemic have been the vaccines and when to drop restrictions. The UK has got both of those big calls right; facilitated by the vaccine rollout being able to drop all restrictions in the summer and having our exit wave over and done with before winter flu hits was absolutely the right call.
    Double the deaths per capita of Germany, higher than France, Portugal, Spain etc.?
    Compare us to EU countries, we'd be 18th out of 28 on that metric.

    A fair-minded commentator would not exclude that pretty important way of looking at the overall success of our handling of it.
    Its way down the list in order of importance.

    Life is more important than death. How many months have they wasted under legal restrictions? How many lives equivalent is that?
    Philip, no. The overall death rate is really very important. I'm a little sad that I even need to assert this.
    NICE use QALYs - Quality Adjusted Life Years - so a crude measure of years of life saved is not used in other contexts in our health system.

    It's reasonable to think in terms of the quality of life, and of how that would be impaired by extraordinary restrictions on daily life.

    When we were in an emergency it was appropriate to take emergency measures in response, but it's not reasonable to chase the risk all the way to zero with emergency measures.
  • Options
    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,684

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    He was clearly talking about their response to the current stage of pandemic, rather than in general.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has not exactly been anything to gloat about. And before you say The Vaccine Programme", (which the rest of the developed world has largely caught up and surpassed us), perhaps we should remember Churchill's quote "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes". That ought to be on Johnson's political epitaph.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has been the best in Europe.

    We've been able to be out of restrictions for five months and counting now, while almost no other nation in Europe has been. We've got herd immunity with zero restrictions and are going into the winter able to live our lives while other countries are now contemplating lockdown.

    The two biggest issues of the pandemic have been the vaccines and when to drop restrictions. The UK has got both of those big calls right; facilitated by the vaccine rollout being able to drop all restrictions in the summer and having our exit wave over and done with before winter flu hits was absolutely the right call.
    Well, Philip, you have said some really dumb things in th emany many hours you spend on here pointlessly defending the pointless, but this one tops the lot in terms of ignorance:

    "HMG's handling of the pandemic has been the best in Europe."

    hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
    If any other country handled the pandemic better then please name any other country in Europe that was able to drop all legal restrictions before the UK?

    If they'd done better, they'd have been able to do so. Who was it?
    "Drop restrictions" or "drop restrictions responsibly"? Any fool can do the first, and Johnson did.
  • Options

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    He was clearly talking about their response to the current stage of pandemic, rather than in general.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has not exactly been anything to gloat about. And before you say The Vaccine Programme", (which the rest of the developed world has largely caught up and surpassed us), perhaps we should remember Churchill's quote "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes". That ought to be on Johnson's political epitaph.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has been the best in Europe.

    We've been able to be out of restrictions for five months and counting now, while almost no other nation in Europe has been. We've got herd immunity with zero restrictions and are going into the winter able to live our lives while other countries are now contemplating lockdown.

    The two biggest issues of the pandemic have been the vaccines and when to drop restrictions. The UK has got both of those big calls right; facilitated by the vaccine rollout being able to drop all restrictions in the summer and having our exit wave over and done with before winter flu hits was absolutely the right call.
    Double the deaths per capita of Germany, higher than France, Portugal, Spain etc.?
    Compare us to EU countries, we'd be 18th out of 28 on that metric.

    A fair-minded commentator would not exclude that pretty important way of looking at the overall success of our handling of it.
    Its way down the list in order of importance.

    Life is more important than death. How many months have they wasted under legal restrictions? How many lives equivalent is that?
    Philip, no. The overall death rate is really very important. I'm a little sad that I even need to assert this.
    Why?
    'Most of them would have died anyway'
    Why's that a reason why its important?

    Everyone dies. Life is a terminal condition, the question is what you do while alive. Imprisoning innocent people in order to save the lives of a few people who are going to die anyway isn't OK.
  • Options
    ClippP said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    He was clearly talking about their response to the current stage of pandemic, rather than in general.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has not exactly been anything to gloat about. And before you say The Vaccine Programme", (which the rest of the developed world has largely caught up and surpassed us), perhaps we should remember Churchill's quote "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes". That ought to be on Johnson's political epitaph.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has been the best in Europe.

    We've been able to be out of restrictions for five months and counting now, while almost no other nation in Europe has been. We've got herd immunity with zero restrictions and are going into the winter able to live our lives while other countries are now contemplating lockdown.

    The two biggest issues of the pandemic have been the vaccines and when to drop restrictions. The UK has got both of those big calls right; facilitated by the vaccine rollout being able to drop all restrictions in the summer and having our exit wave over and done with before winter flu hits was absolutely the right call.
    Well, Philip, you have said some really dumb things in th emany many hours you spend on here pointlessly defending the pointless, but this one tops the lot in terms of ignorance:

    "HMG's handling of the pandemic has been the best in Europe."

    hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
    If any other country handled the pandemic better then please name any other country in Europe that was able to drop all legal restrictions before the UK?

    If they'd done better, they'd have been able to do so. Who was it?
    "Drop restrictions" or "drop restrictions responsibly"? Any fool can do the first, and Johnson did.
    If you can do the first without reversing it, as the UK did post-vaccines, then it is responsible.

    We dropped restrictions too late. I was advocating for restrictions to be lifted months before they were. But better late than never and they were lifted far before anyone else. Who else responsibly or otherwise lifted them first?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,225
    kjh said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    RobD said:

    It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.

    A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.

    I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.

    Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.

    By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.

    I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
    Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
    Thank you for proving my point!
    Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
    Just out of interest how old are you @HYUFD ? That comment puts you over 40 if you could vote in 97. I don't know why but I imagined you as late 20s or early 30s. My guess wasn't actually based on anything really.
    I am just under 40, I could not vote in 1997 but I did canvass with a friend's mother who was a local Tory member.

    I attended my first campaign rally in 1992 for Major in rural Gravesham when he was on his soapbox and have been involved campaigning for the Conservatives in some capacity in every general election since
    Life begins at 40. Ask yourself what your values and principles are, then look at the party you are attached to like a limpet and realise you parted ways morally a long time before.

    If you are a Majorite Tory why are you condoning Borisite blue Labour policies that you have opposed all this time? What is the point in you keeping Labour out only to do what Labour do? If you are a Majorite Tory why condone outrageous corruption?

    That moment of absolute clarity when you realise the party is beneath you and you walk away is golden. I hope you enjoy it - and the personal cleansing of your own morality - as much as I did.
    I am not a Majorite Tory, I am just a Tory.

    I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris (and briefly met Thatcher once at a reception)
    And the rest? You'll back your party regardless of what it does or how it clashes with your own principles because it's your party?

    Like a football team in other words.
    To defend H here since I'm feeling robust and contrarian today. I think it's possible to be a lifelong Tory, come what may, without loss of integrity. Eg if your politics is driven by an aversion to the left you'll always support the only party of the right with a chance of government, ie the Cons. This is me too but in the opposite way. I've supported every iteration of Labour since I first got interested in politics as a teenager. Why? Because they're the only party of the left with a chance of government. I'm Labour like a football team in this sense. Callaghan, yes. Foot, yes. Kinnock, yes. Blair, yes. Brown, yes. Miliband, yes. Corbyn, yes. And now Starmer - Yes. My enthusiasm waxes and wanes, and I only joined in 2017, but my vote can be counted on. The one and only thing that could stop me voting Labour would be if we went for a populist charlatan as leader.
    Good point. I don't feel as if I have any allegiance to one party (a bit like the discussion we had on being British) yet I have always been a Liberal/Lib Dem and for most of that time a member and activity involved, because they have always best reflected my views. I have however declined to vote Liberal on a few occasions, usually it was to avoid voting for a pillock or because I preferred an Indy in a local election.
    Ah, yes, I was only talking about GEs. I've been known to riff around in the locals.
  • Options

    Heathener said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    It's an interesting moment. To do a 'Blair' again Labour have to do two jobs. The first is being gifted to them - to portray the government as mired in sleaze and all that, and keep it up for the next two years.

    The second is to have a broad leadership which exudes competence and clarity, and beyond doubt has better policies on offer on the subjects that are big for the key voters.

    These are things like post-Brexit strategy and vision, housing, transport, education, jobs, debt, deficit, interest rates, inflation, tax, NHS, social care, defence, the union, migration, CO2, free speech, taming the extremes of left and right, terrorism and so on.

    Because they are so behind in this they still have little chance of winning, and only a even chance of leading the next government. They should be 20 points ahead.

    Where are the killer three word slogans?

    Make Brexit Work

    Keir is sticking to this and needs to have his front bench team hammering it in every interview. We are where we are. The EU is the past, our trading relationship the future. We need to Make Brexit Work to deliver the hope that people have for our future however they voted.

    At the moment too much of the message is "Brexit doesn't work and you are stupid". Change it to "Brexit doesn't work, but it could" and its a mirror held up to Tory failure to deliver. More so if we embark on a trade war.
    Make Brexit Work'
    BREXIT ISN'T WORKING

    is a killer slogan. Reminds everyone of the demographic that matters of the crushing Saatchi and Saatchi 1979 poster: Labour isn't working.

    It tells it like it is but, as you say, doesn't make out people were stupid in the first place.
    The problem is that, in 1979, the voters could simply vote Tory to get rid of Labour. At the next GE Labour will not be offering the voters the opportunity to get rid of Brexit, so you can't campaign on the "Brexit isn't working" slogan.

    That's why "Make Brexit Work" is better. Can Labour convince Leave voters to trust them to do so?
    "Make Brexit Work" is a better slogan. It gives Starmer some space to attack Johnson without being seen to throw in his hat with rejoiners. But it's not enough, at best it's serving to defuse an issue rather than itself serving as a reason to vote Labour.

    "Tory corruption" also seems to be gaining a bit of resonance. As well it should, after 250 of them decided that the corrupt actions of an individual MP were not worthy of censure.

    More pithy slogans are needed though.

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited November 2021
    Portugal has the highest vaccination rate, Sweden has spent less time under draconian restrictions than the UK. The UK's COVID death toll isn't great.
    I'd have our response to the virus as overall average to good, I don't think we can lay a claim to be "the best" though.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    RobD said:

    It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.

    A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.

    I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.

    Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.

    By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.

    I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
    Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
    Thank you for proving my point!
    Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
    Just out of interest how old are you @HYUFD ? That comment puts you over 40 if you could vote in 97. I don't know why but I imagined you as late 20s or early 30s. My guess wasn't actually based on anything really.
    I am just under 40, I could not vote in 1997 but I did canvass with a friend's mother who was a local Tory member.

    I attended my first campaign rally in 1992 for Major in rural Gravesham when he was on his soapbox and have been involved campaigning for the Conservatives in some capacity in every general election since
    Life begins at 40. Ask yourself what your values and principles are, then look at the party you are attached to like a limpet and realise you parted ways morally a long time before.

    If you are a Majorite Tory why are you condoning Borisite blue Labour policies that you have opposed all this time? What is the point in you keeping Labour out only to do what Labour do? If you are a Majorite Tory why condone outrageous corruption?

    That moment of absolute clarity when you realise the party is beneath you and you walk away is golden. I hope you enjoy it - and the personal cleansing of your own morality - as much as I did.
    I am not a Majorite Tory, I am just a Tory.

    I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris (and briefly met Thatcher once at a reception)
    And the rest? You'll back your party regardless of what it does or how it clashes with your own principles because it's your party?

    Like a football team in other words.
    To defend H here since I'm feeling robust and contrarian today. I think it's possible to be a lifelong Tory, come what may, without loss of integrity. Eg if your politics is driven by an aversion to the left you'll always support the only party of the right with a chance of government, ie the Cons. This is me too but in the opposite way. I've supported every iteration of Labour since I first got interested in politics as a teenager. Why? Because they're the only party of the left with a chance of government. I'm Labour like a football team in this sense. Callaghan, yes. Foot, yes. Kinnock, yes. Blair, yes. Brown, yes. Miliband, yes. Corbyn, yes. And now Starmer - Yes. My enthusiasm waxes and wanes, and I only joined in 2017, but my vote can be counted on. The one and only thing that could stop me voting Labour would be if we went for a populist charlatan as leader.
    But that is the point. However difficult it might be to reach your limit of what you could accept from them, you have a limit, everyone surely does. It will vary, but since parties demonstrably change in significant ways, there could, in theory at least, be a point where the name exists but nothing else, and if that was the case you wouldn't back that presumably.

    People just disagree about the point at which a party 'leaves them' in that way.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    RobD said:

    Let's not forget this story:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/02/briefing/britain-covid-cases-restrictions.html

    Britain offers a warning of what happens when a country ignores Covid.

    Very interesting. Lots in there to chew over. Perhaps a huge factor is the Brits have relegated it in their minds to just one of those things. Brings to mind the Eddie Izzard sketch about the suspect package. People just incorporate it into their daily routine.

    I doubt if you asked 100 people more than five of them would be able to give yesterday's number of cases and deaths.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    Pulpstar said:

    Portugal has the highest vaccination rate, Sweden has spent less time under draconian restrictions than the UK. The UK's COVID death toll isn't great.
    I'd have our response to the virus as overall average to good, I don't think we can lay a claim to be "the best" though.

    Being the worse is certainly not supported by the data (overall deaths rather than death rate does not count, since places doing very well shown as bad on that if they are a big country), so when people go down that route its easy to ignore. But we don't seem near the top of the pack either, certainly.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Pulpstar said:

    Portugal has the highest vaccination rate, Sweden has spent less time under draconian restrictions than the UK. The UK's COVID death toll isn't great.
    I'd have our response to the virus as overall average to good, I don't think we can lay a claim to be "the best" though.

    Definitely middling, absolute cock ups in some areas (e.g., nursing homes), but good elsewhere.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304

    Heathener said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    It's an interesting moment. To do a 'Blair' again Labour have to do two jobs. The first is being gifted to them - to portray the government as mired in sleaze and all that, and keep it up for the next two years.

    The second is to have a broad leadership which exudes competence and clarity, and beyond doubt has better policies on offer on the subjects that are big for the key voters.

    These are things like post-Brexit strategy and vision, housing, transport, education, jobs, debt, deficit, interest rates, inflation, tax, NHS, social care, defence, the union, migration, CO2, free speech, taming the extremes of left and right, terrorism and so on.

    Because they are so behind in this they still have little chance of winning, and only a even chance of leading the next government. They should be 20 points ahead.

    Where are the killer three word slogans?

    Make Brexit Work

    Keir is sticking to this and needs to have his front bench team hammering it in every interview. We are where we are. The EU is the past, our trading relationship the future. We need to Make Brexit Work to deliver the hope that people have for our future however they voted.

    At the moment too much of the message is "Brexit doesn't work and you are stupid". Change it to "Brexit doesn't work, but it could" and its a mirror held up to Tory failure to deliver. More so if we embark on a trade war.
    Make Brexit Work'
    BREXIT ISN'T WORKING

    is a killer slogan. Reminds everyone of the demographic that matters of the crushing Saatchi and Saatchi 1979 poster: Labour isn't working.

    It tells it like it is but, as you say, doesn't make out people were stupid in the first place.
    The response to make Brexit work is just how and will that include free movement of labour

    Starmer to be fair yesterday ruled out re-joining the EU so he will need a clear policy on how he is to make it work, not just soundbites
    Why should he as Leader of the Opposition have a policy on it, Big G, when the government doesn't have one.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,263

    I'll buy the drinks.

    And the bet was with a friend of mine.

    I hope you will have the opportunity to buy your friend a drink too.
  • Options
    Not nice to be accused of being a liar.
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,353

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Boris Johnson loses poll lead in wake of Tory sleaze scandal - although Labour not yet making dramatic breakthrough

    Con 35 (-4)
    Labour 36 (-)
    Greens 11 (+6)
    Lib Dems 9 (-)

    Just one poll and within margin of error etc

    h/t @nicholascecil/ @IpsosMORI
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-loses-poll-lead-ipsos-mori-sleaze-scandal-b964945.html

    Interesting point - the field work on this poll was Oct 29 - Nov 4 so much of it was *before* Paterson row dominated headlines (debate was Nov 3, U-turn Nov 4). Next one should be fascinating...

    It was mostly taken before Paterson's resignation though
    So are you expecting Cons sub 30% at the next sampling?
    No, I expect now the issue has faded the Conservatives may rebound a little
    Faded? It has barely begun.
    @HYUFD has a very complacent attitude

    Boris is at a hospital in the North East and JRM has gone into hiding with apparently Steve Barclay facing off Starmer

    The most interesting part of this afternoon debate is not Starmer's open goal but just how many conservative mps come out and attack the decision to try to keep Paterson in place

    I would just suggest to red wall mps, come out and fight for decency and show Boris he is on notice to clean up his act or go
    What makes you clain JRM has gone into hiding?. Do you have any evidence bar the fact that he isn't there. ?
    Leader of the house on a debate about the discipline procedures within the house. You would expect anyone so closely involved to be attending the debate.
    Missing the point again. You claim he has gone into hiding with no evidence to back up your assertion bar the fact that he isn't there. A sort of general smear.
    Sort of reverse Jezza: I was not present at debate but I think I was involved.
    Feeble
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,225
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    RobD said:

    It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.

    A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.

    I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.

    Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.

    By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.

    I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
    Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
    Thank you for proving my point!
    Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
    Just out of interest how old are you @HYUFD ? That comment puts you over 40 if you could vote in 97. I don't know why but I imagined you as late 20s or early 30s. My guess wasn't actually based on anything really.
    I am just under 40, I could not vote in 1997 but I did canvass with a friend's mother who was a local Tory member.

    I attended my first campaign rally in 1992 for Major in rural Gravesham when he was on his soapbox and have been involved campaigning for the Conservatives in some capacity in every general election since
    Life begins at 40. Ask yourself what your values and principles are, then look at the party you are attached to like a limpet and realise you parted ways morally a long time before.

    If you are a Majorite Tory why are you condoning Borisite blue Labour policies that you have opposed all this time? What is the point in you keeping Labour out only to do what Labour do? If you are a Majorite Tory why condone outrageous corruption?

    That moment of absolute clarity when you realise the party is beneath you and you walk away is golden. I hope you enjoy it - and the personal cleansing of your own morality - as much as I did.
    I am not a Majorite Tory, I am just a Tory.

    I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris (and briefly met Thatcher once at a reception)
    And the rest? You'll back your party regardless of what it does or how it clashes with your own principles because it's your party?

    Like a football team in other words.
    To defend H here since I'm feeling robust and contrarian today. I think it's possible to be a lifelong Tory, come what may, without loss of integrity. Eg if your politics is driven by an aversion to the left you'll always support the only party of the right with a chance of government, ie the Cons. This is me too but in the opposite way. I've supported every iteration of Labour since I first got interested in politics as a teenager. Why? Because they're the only party of the left with a chance of government. I'm Labour like a football team in this sense. Callaghan, yes. Foot, yes. Kinnock, yes. Blair, yes. Brown, yes. Miliband, yes. Corbyn, yes. And now Starmer - Yes. My enthusiasm waxes and wanes, and I only joined in 2017, but my vote can be counted on. The one and only thing that could stop me voting Labour would be if we went for a populist charlatan as leader.
    Not even that, as you voted for Corbyn too
    Yes, but his demerits were intellect, leadership skills, dogmatism. I saw no charlatan there. He wasn't devoid of integrity. I'm talking about a left wing BoJo equivalent, if one can imagine such a thing. That would probably see me voting LD or Green.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Boris Johnson loses poll lead in wake of Tory sleaze scandal - although Labour not yet making dramatic breakthrough

    Con 35 (-4)
    Labour 36 (-)
    Greens 11 (+6)
    Lib Dems 9 (-)

    Just one poll and within margin of error etc

    h/t @nicholascecil/ @IpsosMORI
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-loses-poll-lead-ipsos-mori-sleaze-scandal-b964945.html

    Interesting point - the field work on this poll was Oct 29 - Nov 4 so much of it was *before* Paterson row dominated headlines (debate was Nov 3, U-turn Nov 4). Next one should be fascinating...

    It was mostly taken before Paterson's resignation though
    So are you expecting Cons sub 30% at the next sampling?
    No, I expect now the issue has faded the Conservatives may rebound a little
    Faded? It has barely begun.
    @HYUFD has a very complacent attitude

    Boris is at a hospital in the North East and JRM has gone into hiding with apparently Steve Barclay facing off Starmer

    The most interesting part of this afternoon debate is not Starmer's open goal but just how many conservative mps come out and attack the decision to try to keep Paterson in place

    I would just suggest to red wall mps, come out and fight for decency and show Boris he is on notice to clean up his act or go
    What makes you clain JRM has gone into hiding?. Do you have any evidence bar the fact that he isn't there. ?
    Leader of the house on a debate about the discipline procedures within the house. You would expect anyone so closely involved to be attending the debate.
    He would probably argue that the Leader of the House is not actually the leader of the House in any sense, not responsible for standards. But he is responsible for organising government and commons business, facilitating motions and debates etc, so he is in fact very relevant to what went down.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    kinabalu said:

    To defend H here since I'm feeling robust and contrarian today. I think it's possible to be a lifelong Tory, come what may, without loss of integrity. Eg if your politics is driven by an aversion to the left you'll always support the only party of the right with a chance of government, ie the Cons. This is me too but in the opposite way. I've supported every iteration of Labour since I first got interested in politics as a teenager. Why? Because they're the only party of the left with a chance of government. I'm Labour like a football team in this sense. Callaghan, yes. Foot, yes. Kinnock, yes. Blair, yes. Brown, yes. Miliband, yes. Corbyn, yes. And now Starmer - Yes. My enthusiasm waxes and wanes, and I only joined in 2017, but my vote can be counted on. The one and only thing that could stop me voting Labour would be if we went for a populist charlatan as leader.

    Yes. It would be absurd and possibly counter-productive at the ballot box for Labour to go for a populist charlatan as leader.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750

    Not nice to be accused of being a liar.

    Avoid the internet.
  • Options

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Boris Johnson loses poll lead in wake of Tory sleaze scandal - although Labour not yet making dramatic breakthrough

    Con 35 (-4)
    Labour 36 (-)
    Greens 11 (+6)
    Lib Dems 9 (-)

    Just one poll and within margin of error etc

    h/t @nicholascecil/ @IpsosMORI
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-loses-poll-lead-ipsos-mori-sleaze-scandal-b964945.html

    Interesting point - the field work on this poll was Oct 29 - Nov 4 so much of it was *before* Paterson row dominated headlines (debate was Nov 3, U-turn Nov 4). Next one should be fascinating...

    It was mostly taken before Paterson's resignation though
    So are you expecting Cons sub 30% at the next sampling?
    No, I expect now the issue has faded the Conservatives may rebound a little
    Faded? It has barely begun.
    @HYUFD has a very complacent attitude

    Boris is at a hospital in the North East and JRM has gone into hiding with apparently Steve Barclay facing off Starmer

    The most interesting part of this afternoon debate is not Starmer's open goal but just how many conservative mps come out and attack the decision to try to keep Paterson in place

    I would just suggest to red wall mps, come out and fight for decency and show Boris he is on notice to clean up his act or go
    What makes you clain JRM has gone into hiding?. Do you have any evidence bar the fact that he isn't there. ?
    Leader of the house on a debate about the discipline procedures within the house. You would expect anyone so closely involved to be attending the debate.
    Missing the point again. You claim he has gone into hiding with no evidence to back up your assertion bar the fact that he isn't there. A sort of general smear.
    Sort of reverse Jezza: I was not present at debate but I think I was involved.
    Feeble
    BJ or JRM?
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    Not nice to be accused of being a liar.

    Avoid the internet.
    Thought with an understanding of my current state, people would have been a bit kinder but I was clearly wrong
  • Options
    RattersRatters Posts: 780
    I think most people have struggled to follow Covid-19 trends since the summer. Cases were going up lots, then fell, then went up again, then fell a bit, then went up by quite a lot and people were talking of Plan B, and are now falling again.

    All of which while we have had no restrictions in place.

    I don't think you can blame ordinary people for not understanding what is happening at any given point in time.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    edited November 2021
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    RobD said:

    It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.

    A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.

    I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.

    Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.

    By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.

    I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
    Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
    Thank you for proving my point!
    Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
    Just out of interest how old are you @HYUFD ? That comment puts you over 40 if you could vote in 97. I don't know why but I imagined you as late 20s or early 30s. My guess wasn't actually based on anything really.
    I am just under 40, I could not vote in 1997 but I did canvass with a friend's mother who was a local Tory member.

    I attended my first campaign rally in 1992 for Major in rural Gravesham when he was on his soapbox and have been involved campaigning for the Conservatives in some capacity in every general election since
    Life begins at 40. Ask yourself what your values and principles are, then look at the party you are attached to like a limpet and realise you parted ways morally a long time before.

    If you are a Majorite Tory why are you condoning Borisite blue Labour policies that you have opposed all this time? What is the point in you keeping Labour out only to do what Labour do? If you are a Majorite Tory why condone outrageous corruption?

    That moment of absolute clarity when you realise the party is beneath you and you walk away is golden. I hope you enjoy it - and the personal cleansing of your own morality - as much as I did.
    I am not a Majorite Tory, I am just a Tory.

    I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris (and briefly met Thatcher once at a reception)
    And the rest? You'll back your party regardless of what it does or how it clashes with your own principles because it's your party?

    Like a football team in other words.
    To defend H here since I'm feeling robust and contrarian today. I think it's possible to be a lifelong Tory, come what may, without loss of integrity. Eg if your politics is driven by an aversion to the left you'll always support the only party of the right with a chance of government, ie the Cons. This is me too but in the opposite way. I've supported every iteration of Labour since I first got interested in politics as a teenager. Why? Because they're the only party of the left with a chance of government. I'm Labour like a football team in this sense. Callaghan, yes. Foot, yes. Kinnock, yes. Blair, yes. Brown, yes. Miliband, yes. Corbyn, yes. And now Starmer - Yes. My enthusiasm waxes and wanes, and I only joined in 2017, but my vote can be counted on. The one and only thing that could stop me voting Labour would be if we went for a populist charlatan as leader.
    Not even that, as you voted for Corbyn too
    Yes, but his demerits were intellect, leadership skills, dogmatism. I saw no charlatan there. He wasn't devoid of integrity. I'm talking about a left wing BoJo equivalent, if one can imagine such a thing. That would probably see me voting LD or Green.
    Is claiming to be present but not involved at a meeting of people celebrating the massacre of Jewish athletes at the Olympic Games a teensy bit charlatanish?
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    I'll buy the drinks.

    And the bet was with a friend of mine.

    Friend is quite an optimistic term for someone you just fleeced - in any case a very good friend to allow you to dial the bet up and down so much. Hope they pay out.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,449
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    He was clearly talking about their response to the current stage of pandemic, rather than in general.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has not exactly been anything to gloat about. And before you say The Vaccine Programme", (which the rest of the developed world has largely caught up and surpassed us), perhaps we should remember Churchill's quote "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes". That ought to be on Johnson's political epitaph.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has been the best in Europe.

    We've been able to be out of restrictions for five months and counting now, while almost no other nation in Europe has been. We've got herd immunity with zero restrictions and are going into the winter able to live our lives while other countries are now contemplating lockdown.

    The two biggest issues of the pandemic have been the vaccines and when to drop restrictions. The UK has got both of those big calls right; facilitated by the vaccine rollout being able to drop all restrictions in the summer and having our exit wave over and done with before winter flu hits was absolutely the right call.
    Double the deaths per capita of Germany, higher than France, Portugal, Spain etc.?
    Compare us to EU countries, we'd be 18th out of 28 on that metric.

    A fair-minded commentator would not exclude that pretty important way of looking at the overall success of our handling of it.
    Its way down the list in order of importance.

    Life is more important than death. How many months have they wasted under legal restrictions? How many lives equivalent is that?
    Philip, no. The overall death rate is really very important. I'm a little sad that I even need to assert this.
    Can I go for a middle ground between 'way down the list in order of importance' and 'really very important'? It's quite important, along with other measures. It's definitely not the only thing of importance - we clearly wouldn't lock down the whole country to prevent 'just one death', so for all of us its a balancing act between health outcomes and impacts. But it's one of the best measures for comparing between countries, as rates of testing etc vary so wildly. Excess deaths is a much better measure than headline deaths from covid, for reasons well rehearsed.
    Even here though, there will be aspects beyond the ability of different governments to influence in the timescale of a pandemic, like demographic structure, general levels of health, etc, as well as issues like climate and geography which we still don't fully understand the impact of.

    By excess deaths, the UK has so far done quite poorly, though many others have done much worse still. Nor has the UK done that well on limiting the impacts on its citizens lives - these things are difficult to compare, because there are so many aspects to restrictions which have been put in place, but we in the UK have been hit pretty hard by restrictions on our lives.
    However, this isn't over yet - the UK would appear to be, if not out of the woods yet, to have the edge of the woods in sight both in respect of health impacts and restrictions on people's lives. Many other countries, particularly our neighbours in Europe, still have restrictions where we do not (which is both a negative in absolute terms but will have an economic impact too) - so the balance of 'who has done best on restrictions' is tilting back again towards the UK (as I said earlier, who has done 'best' on this measure will rarely be possible to say for sure). Worryingly, it looks like excess deaths are heading upwards on mainland Europe too again, relative to ours.
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    Anyway, nice to be right for a change, this has lifted my spirits hugely :)

    Very pleased - be kind to yourself
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited November 2021
    Heathener said:

    Blimey!!!!

    "The poll was largely conducted before the Owen Paterson sleaze scandal exploded at Westminster."

    More troubles to come for the Tories.

    The optics of his and Rees-Mogg's absence are terrible again today, just like the "storm in a teacup" yesterday. I'm starting to wonder if Johnson is actually incapable of the kind sober and sombre, "responsibility" course-correction and mood music which would be the default response in this situation for many politicians.

    It's almost as if his whole premiership has been predicated on the idea that his brand of trolling, nudge-winking arrogance would always win the day and sail through, and now in these new circumstances he doesn't know quite what to do, or have an alternative gear to choose from.

    If so, he could be out and gone much more quickly than some expect.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    Fun fact, as the Leader of the Commons is also the Lord President of the Council, a Great Officer of State, there are apparently 9 such officers - the most senior is nominally the Lord High Steward, but this has apparently been vacant since 1421, only filled ad hoc at coronations. And I thought the vestiges of the hereditary peers sticking around for 20 years was bad.

    Wiki says that Raab as Lord High Chancellor nominally outranks the PM.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,981

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    Not coming to iSage anytime soon:

    The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21

    Click on tweet for graphic

    Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.

    Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.

    5..4..3..2..
    That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
    Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
    A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
    Really, people have been delighting in it?
    Seems that way to me.
    There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
    Our politicians are of course, absolutely tickety-boo! Silly old foreigners. What they need is a load of Boris Johnsons or Owen Pattersons to show them how strong and principled politicians operate!
    He was clearly talking about their response to the current stage of pandemic, rather than in general.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has not exactly been anything to gloat about. And before you say The Vaccine Programme", (which the rest of the developed world has largely caught up and surpassed us), perhaps we should remember Churchill's quote "The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes". That ought to be on Johnson's political epitaph.
    HMG's handling of the pandemic has been the best in Europe.

    We've been able to be out of restrictions for five months and counting now, while almost no other nation in Europe has been. We've got herd immunity with zero restrictions and are going into the winter able to live our lives while other countries are now contemplating lockdown.

    The two biggest issues of the pandemic have been the vaccines and when to drop restrictions. The UK has got both of those big calls right; facilitated by the vaccine rollout being able to drop all restrictions in the summer and having our exit wave over and done with before winter flu hits was absolutely the right call.
    Double the deaths per capita of Germany, higher than France, Portugal, Spain etc.?
    Compare us to EU countries, we'd be 18th out of 28 on that metric.

    A fair-minded commentator would not exclude that pretty important way of looking at the overall success of our handling of it.
    Its way down the list in order of importance.

    Life is more important than death. How many months have they wasted under legal restrictions? How many lives equivalent is that?
    Philip, no. The overall death rate is really very important. I'm a little sad that I even need to assert this.
    Why?
    Because the only valid method (and even this isn't 100% accurate) that can be used to measure deaths will be excess deaths (as there is no consistent definition of what is a Covid death).
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Portugal has the highest vaccination rate, Sweden has spent less time under draconian restrictions than the UK. The UK's COVID death toll isn't great.
    I'd have our response to the virus as overall average to good, I don't think we can lay a claim to be "the best" though.

    Definitely middling, absolute cock ups in some areas (e.g., nursing homes), but good elsewhere.
    As I noted if there is any justice in the world then Jodie Comer's performance in Help should be enough on its own to bring the government down.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304

    Heathener said:

    Blimey!!!!

    "The poll was largely conducted before the Owen Paterson sleaze scandal exploded at Westminster."

    More troubles to come for the Tories.

    The optics of his and Rees-Mogg's absence are terrible again today, just like the "storm in a teacup" yesterday. I'm starting to wonder if Johnson is actually incapable of a sober and sombre, "responsibility" course-correction here which would be the obvious move for many politicians.

    It's almost as if his whole premiership has been predicated on the idea that his brand of trolling, nudge-winking arrogance would always win the day and sail through, and now he just doesn't have an alternate gear and know quite what to do.

    If so, he could be out and gone much more quickly than some expect.
    Thing is, just like with the Brillo (non-)interview if he doesn't do it he doesn't do it and everyone moves on without having seen an evisceration. For Boris that was therefore a win. As he no doubt believes this is also.
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    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Portugal has the highest vaccination rate, Sweden has spent less time under draconian restrictions than the UK. The UK's COVID death toll isn't great.
    I'd have our response to the virus as overall average to good, I don't think we can lay a claim to be "the best" though.

    Definitely middling, absolute cock ups in some areas (e.g., nursing homes), but good elsewhere.
    As I noted if there is any justice in the world then Jodie Comer's performance in Help should be enough on its own to bring the government down.
    Aye, but I regret to inform you..
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    TOPPING said:

    Heathener said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    It's an interesting moment. To do a 'Blair' again Labour have to do two jobs. The first is being gifted to them - to portray the government as mired in sleaze and all that, and keep it up for the next two years.

    The second is to have a broad leadership which exudes competence and clarity, and beyond doubt has better policies on offer on the subjects that are big for the key voters.

    These are things like post-Brexit strategy and vision, housing, transport, education, jobs, debt, deficit, interest rates, inflation, tax, NHS, social care, defence, the union, migration, CO2, free speech, taming the extremes of left and right, terrorism and so on.

    Because they are so behind in this they still have little chance of winning, and only a even chance of leading the next government. They should be 20 points ahead.

    Where are the killer three word slogans?

    Make Brexit Work

    Keir is sticking to this and needs to have his front bench team hammering it in every interview. We are where we are. The EU is the past, our trading relationship the future. We need to Make Brexit Work to deliver the hope that people have for our future however they voted.

    At the moment too much of the message is "Brexit doesn't work and you are stupid". Change it to "Brexit doesn't work, but it could" and its a mirror held up to Tory failure to deliver. More so if we embark on a trade war.
    Make Brexit Work'
    BREXIT ISN'T WORKING

    is a killer slogan. Reminds everyone of the demographic that matters of the crushing Saatchi and Saatchi 1979 poster: Labour isn't working.

    It tells it like it is but, as you say, doesn't make out people were stupid in the first place.
    The response to make Brexit work is just how and will that include free movement of labour

    Starmer to be fair yesterday ruled out re-joining the EU so he will need a clear policy on how he is to make it work, not just soundbites
    Why should he as Leader of the Opposition have a policy on it, Big G, when the government doesn't have one.
    HMG has a policy of agreeing trade deals and moving on

    Of course the opposition has to have a policy on how they would tackle the issues, especially if they want to win over conservative voters
This discussion has been closed.