The problem is that being an MP is expensive (unless you are fortunate enough to be the MP for Westminster). Your constituents are - at the very least - a drive away, and could be a flight or long train journey away.
Unless you are in London, you will need two homes, and you will need to travel between them. And you probably need to staff an office.
We have attempted to square this circle by paying MPs a little, but allowing them to claim a lot of expenses. And inevitably this means there are lots of edge cases about what is acceptable behaviour.
You are in Westminster for a HoC vote, and you miss the last train to your constituency in Oxford. Is it acceptable to get a taxi (cost £250) home and to expense it?
I can think of hundreds of little things are at the discretion of MPs, and which may - or may not - be acceptable.
The answer is to have an allowance. No more fiddling expenses.
This is nonsense.
You have expenses and clear rules on what expenses are allowable and what aren't. Set these out publicly.
It's what many businesses do. My employers all had an expenses policy and it really was not difficult to read and follow the policy. Amazingly enough, the policies covered issues such as late night working etc.
This is not hard. It is just that the will is not there and there is a sense of entitlement among far too many MPs that expenses are not the repayment of costs borne for the purposes of their work but a means to have a pretty luxurious lifestyle.
It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.
A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.
I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.
Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.
By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.
I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
You have no idea how I will vote in GE24, as at this moment in time, and at my age, I just keep taking my pills and enjoying the near 60 years with my beloved wife and family.
I often recall a very beloved uncle in Scotland who was terminal with cancer responding to me when I asked how he was
'Why should a breathing man complain' and a few weeks later he sadly passed away, bless him
I am not an 'apparatchik' with a 'weird purity' to the party and I do have standards.
The one thing that I am certain about is that the behaviour of a weak Boris, surrounded by idiotic Spartans like JRM, Jenkins, Paterson and Leadsom have done enormous damage to the conservative party.
This shambles has left me praying that the decent hard working 'red wall' mps will exert control over the party and either rein in Boris or if they cannot, replace him
It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.
A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.
I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.
Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.
By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.
I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
You have no idea how I will vote in GE24, as at this moment in time, and at my age, I just keep taking my pills and enjoying the near 60 years with my beloved wife and family.
I often recall a very beloved uncle in Scotland who was terminal with cancer responding to me when I asked how he was
'Why should a breathing man complain' and a few weeks later he sadly passed away, bless him
I am not an 'apparatchik' with a 'weird purity' to the party and I do have standards.
The one thing that I am certain about is that the behaviour of a weak Boris, surrounded by idiotic Spartans like JRM, Jenkins and Leadsom have done enormous damage to the conservative party.
This shambles has left me praying that the decent hard working 'red wall' mps will exert control over the party and either rein in Boris or if they cannot, replace him
And if they don't replace him with Sunak then that suggests you will indeed vote Labour or LD, your first non Tory vote since Blair was PM (I am sure you have many more years in you)
Just step back from repeating your metronome like nonsense
I have already said I have no idea how I will vote in 24 but what is more important is decency and honesty and the conservative party to obtain the voters approval have to address this dreadful sleaze
You would make a better contribution if you join the critics, after all you claim to be a Christian and I doubt this is part of Christian values
It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.
A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.
I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.
Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.
By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.
I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
You have no idea how I will vote in GE24, as at this moment in time, and at my age, I just keep taking my pills and enjoying the near 60 years with my beloved wife and family.
I often recall a very beloved uncle in Scotland who was terminal with cancer responding to me when I asked how he was
'Why should a breathing man complain' and a few weeks later he sadly passed away, bless him
I am not an 'apparatchik' with a 'weird purity' to the party and I do have standards.
The one thing that I am certain about is that the behaviour of a weak Boris, surrounded by idiotic Spartans like JRM, Jenkins and Leadsom have done enormous damage to the conservative party.
This shambles has left me praying that the decent hard working 'red wall' mps will exert control over the party and either rein in Boris or if they cannot, replace him
And if they don't replace him with Sunak then that suggests you will indeed vote Labour or LD, your first non Tory vote since Blair was PM (I am sure you have many more years in you)
Just step back from repeating your metronome like nonsense
I have already said I have no idea how I will vote in 24 but what is more important is decency and honesty and the conservative party to obtain the voters approval have to address this dreadful sleaze
You would make a better contribution if you join the critics, after all you claim to be a Christian and I doubt this is part of Christian values
Nonsense.. utter nonsense. You do not automatically make a better contribution by going with the herd.
It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.
A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.
I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.
Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.
By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.
I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
Thank you for proving my point!
Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
"regardless of how corrupt they are or how far they drift from the principles I believe in"
If they lost power the Conservatives would move right anyway and back to core principles in opposition, just as Labour moved left and back to core principles when it lost power in 2010
OK, lets deconstruct this. 1. Your thoughts on the egregious corruption in your party? 2. You accept the party has moved away from "core principles" 3. What are you for if not for application of these principles? What is the point in keeping Labour out if you implement Labour policies and principles?
Genuinely curious. The Conservative Party used to be something I could disagree with politically but respect as fundamentally decent. Principles and values may not always have been upheld but the intention was there to do so, with apology and correction when things strayed too far.
Where are your values now? Your principles? What is the point in being a politician if you stand for nothing?
It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.
A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.
I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.
Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.
By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.
I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
You have no idea how I will vote in GE24, as at this moment in time, and at my age, I just keep taking my pills and enjoying the near 60 years with my beloved wife and family.
I often recall a very beloved uncle in Scotland who was terminal with cancer responding to me when I asked how he was
'Why should a breathing man complain' and a few weeks later he sadly passed away, bless him
I am not an 'apparatchik' with a 'weird purity' to the party and I do have standards.
The one thing that I am certain about is that the behaviour of a weak Boris, surrounded by idiotic Spartans like JRM, Jenkins and Leadsom have done enormous damage to the conservative party.
This shambles has left me praying that the decent hard working 'red wall' mps will exert control over the party and either rein in Boris or if they cannot, replace him
And if they don't replace him with Sunak then that suggests you will indeed vote Labour or LD, your first non Tory vote since Blair was PM (I am sure you have many more years in you)
Just step back from repeating your metronome like nonsense
I have already said I have no idea how I will vote in 24 but what is more important is decency and honesty and the conservative party to obtain the voters approval have to address this dreadful sleaze
You would make a better contribution if you join the critics, after all you claim to be a Christian and I doubt this is part of Christian values
Nonsense.. utter nonsense. You do not automatically make a better contribution by going with the herd.
It is not herd thinking to want honesty and decency in our politics
It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.
A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.
I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.
Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.
By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.
I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
Thank you for proving my point!
Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
"regardless of how corrupt they are or how far they drift from the principles I believe in"
If they lost power the Conservatives would move right anyway and back to core principles in opposition, just as Labour moved left and back to core principles when it lost power in 2010
OK, lets deconstruct this. 1. Your thoughts on the egregious corruption in your party? 2. You accept the party has moved away from "core principles" 3. What are you for if not for application of these principles? What is the point in keeping Labour out if you implement Labour policies and principles?
Genuinely curious. The Conservative Party used to be something I could disagree with politically but respect as fundamentally decent. Principles and values may not always have been upheld but the intention was there to do so, with apology and correction when things strayed too far.
Where are your values now? Your principles? What is the point in being a politician if you stand for nothing?
Orthodoxy, Autocracy, and Nationality HYUFD is the Nicholas Pavlovich Romanov of this site.
It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.
A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.
I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.
Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.
By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.
I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
Thank you for proving my point!
Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
Just out of interest how old are you @HYUFD ? That comment puts you over 40 if you could vote in 97. I don't know why but I imagined you as late 20s or early 30s. My guess wasn't actually based on anything really.
The big problem is not how much MPs are paid... 😂"When reading of the latest cock-up, scandal or crony controversy the same question floats to mind: how on earth is this person a member of parliament?"
Oh that's easy - anyone with a brain knows there are way less stressful ways to earn money.
And there are enough constituents who believe they need their problem fixed now that it's now a 24/7 job.
MPs are amongst the top 3% of earners.
Do you think that 97% of the country lacks a brain?
The truth is that MPs are being paid (even including the expense stuff) a wage that is easily achievable within a 5 years of working in IT in London.
A fixed wage - so as they go forward, they fall behind their contemporaries.....
I have a suggestion - what about a system of promotion and pay increases? A career as an MP? At the moment, a back bencher of 30 yeas experience is paid the same as someone 20 minutes into the job....
I don't see what IT kids in the City have to do with it.
MPs have an independent pay review body, and - I assume - benchmarks.
There are hundreds of MPs who get extra boosts or allowances for responsibilty or position. Some of them are backbenchers.
Are there? There weren't in my day. You got £0 for being on a Select Committee (except the Chair, I think), £0 for being a PPS. Ministers do get a salary for the extra work.
I think you left ("were left", I suppose ) just as the new system came in.
My big fears are secrecy, giving in to the "all motivation is by money" lobby we have to some extent on PB, and regulatory capture, which I think will horribly damage politics.
Similar but less extensive on the Opposition side. How extensive? What about 2nd, 3rd etc Opposition Parties. Does Ed Davey or Ian Blackford benefit?
Office Holders - Select Committee Chairs as you say, but also Speaker, Dep Speakers, whips and others. I am not sure what else. What about Chris Bryant's committee, for example? I think "relevant" Committee Chairs and Members of the "Panel" (not sure how it works) receive around 15k-20k extra.
At a punt I would put it at 1/5 to 1/3 of the Commons, which is 130-215 individuals receiving extra salary. Which may just meet "hundreds", or I may have exaggerated a little.
I guess one could argue that the main hole is backbench seniority.
Interesting that the Reform UK candidate in North Shropshire is going with the line that Owen Paterson is a "man of integrity"! Not the obvious strategy for the by-election...
IPSOS MORI too so not some fly by night newish polling company. Just one poll but continues a general trend, and probably worthy of a new header.
But another example of people being annoyed with the Tories, but not flocking to Labour.
The left of centre vote is strikingly high though now. Even if you exclude the Lib Dems it is implied at over 50%.
Only if you include Scotland and the SNP voteshare, minus Scotland the Tories would likely still have a majority in England and Wales even on the new Ipsos Mori (plus with the DUP in England and Wales and NI).
Though yes it does suggest Starmer would become PM if he could get SNP confidence and supply
For a staunch Unionist you seem to be very keen to ignore the presence of Scottish MPs at Westminster!
The Ipsos MORI survey for The Standard put the Conservatives on 35 per cent, down four points on September, Labour unchanged on 36 per cent, the Greens up a startling five points to 11 per cent, and Liberal Democrats unchanged on nine per cent.
It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.
A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.
I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.
Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.
By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.
I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
Thank you for proving my point!
Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
Just out of interest how old are you @HYUFD ? That comment puts you over 40 if you could vote in 97. I don't know why but I imagined you as late 20s or early 30s. My guess wasn't actually based on anything really.
I am just under 40, I could not vote in 1997 but I did canvass with a friend's mother who was a local Tory member.
I attended my first campaign rally in 1992 for Major in rural Gravesham when he was on his soapbox and have been involved campaigning for the Conservatives in some capacity in every general election since
It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.
A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.
I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.
Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.
By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.
I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
You have no idea how I will vote in GE24, as at this moment in time, and at my age, I just keep taking my pills and enjoying the near 60 years with my beloved wife and family.
I often recall a very beloved uncle in Scotland who was terminal with cancer responding to me when I asked how he was
'Why should a breathing man complain' and a few weeks later he sadly passed away, bless him
I am not an 'apparatchik' with a 'weird purity' to the party and I do have standards.
The one thing that I am certain about is that the behaviour of a weak Boris, surrounded by idiotic Spartans like JRM, Jenkins and Leadsom have done enormous damage to the conservative party.
This shambles has left me praying that the decent hard working 'red wall' mps will exert control over the party and either rein in Boris or if they cannot, replace him
And if they don't replace him with Sunak then that suggests you will indeed vote Labour or LD, your first non Tory vote since Blair was PM (I am sure you have many more years in you)
Just step back from repeating your metronome like nonsense
I have already said I have no idea how I will vote in 24 but what is more important is decency and honesty and the conservative party to obtain the voters approval have to address this dreadful sleaze
You would make a better contribution if you join the critics, after all you claim to be a Christian and I doubt this is part of Christian values
Nonsense.. utter nonsense. You do not automatically make a better contribution by going with the herd.
It is not herd thinking to want honesty and decency in our politics
"The herd" - seems to be a sheep suggestion, like the people pointing the finger at nice Mr Johnson are sheeple. Not thinking, not understanding, just doing what others do.
It is the exact opposite. There are so many Good People in politics who get overshadowed by the smaller numbers of liars, crooks and charlatans. The problem is that the latter group are now in government trying to portray everyone as the reality of them - traitors, the enemy of the people, all the same.
We either have a basic understanding of right and wrong or we don't. Taking money from people to line your own pockets is wrong. Pointing this out when it is being called out is not "herd behaviour".
In normal times the catastrophic procurement we have seen would have been a career-ending scandal. Vast contracts. Awarded without tender not to the companies with a track record in the field but often to new companies set up by people with no experience via a "VIP fast-track" so outrageous that its very existence had to be denied.
A company awarded a transport contract worth double its size. Then another to source the PPE it is to transport. Paying hugely over the odds for junk. Which it then wins another contract worth a million a day to store the stuff it was paid to source and transport. At the very least this has to be investigated so that such disasters can be avoided in future. Regardless of any questions of propriety.
It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.
A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.
I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.
Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.
By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.
I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
I'm reasonably wound up this morning so if any LD want an argument I'm up for it just to be provocative and prove you wrong.
I don't count myself as a LD but I did vote for them in the last 2 Westminster elections. And I might be switching to SNP next time. That ought to be enough to provoke a little yellow-on-yellow?
I'm afraid that doesn't pass the HYUFD test for loyalty so thanks for your offer of an argument but I must decline.
It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.
A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.
I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.
Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.
By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.
I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
Thank you for proving my point!
Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
"regardless of how corrupt they are or how far they drift from the principles I believe in"
If they lost power the Conservatives would move right anyway and back to core principles in opposition, just as Labour moved left and back to core principles when it lost power in 2010
IPSOS MORI too so not some fly by night newish polling company. Just one poll but continues a general trend, and probably worthy of a new header.
But another example of people being annoyed with the Tories, but not flocking to Labour.
The left of centre vote is strikingly high though now. Even if you exclude the Lib Dems it is implied at over 50%.
Only if you include Scotland and the SNP voteshare, minus Scotland the Tories would likely still have a majority in England and Wales even on the new Ipsos Mori (plus with the DUP in England and Wales and NI).
Though yes it does suggest Starmer would become PM if he could get SNP confidence and supply
For a staunch Unionist you seem to be very keen to ignore the presence of Scottish MPs at Westminster!
I am not opposed to Starmer becoming UK PM thanks to Scottish MPs as a Unionist.
However as I have said before I would prefer an English parliament too so if England elects a majority of Conservative MPs and gets a Labour PM (supported by the SNP) it can still determine much of its own domestic policy much as Scotland and Wales have their own parliaments for much of their domestic policy if they have a Conservative PM they did not vote for as now
It's an interesting moment. To do a 'Blair' again Labour have to do two jobs. The first is being gifted to them - to portray the government as mired in sleaze and all that, and keep it up for the next two years.
The second is to have a broad leadership which exudes competence and clarity, and beyond doubt has better policies on offer on the subjects that are big for the key voters.
These are things like post-Brexit strategy and vision, housing, transport, education, jobs, debt, deficit, interest rates, inflation, tax, NHS, social care, defence, the union, migration, CO2, free speech, taming the extremes of left and right, terrorism and so on.
Because they are so behind in this they still have little chance of winning, and only a even chance of leading the next government. They should be 20 points ahead.
It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.
A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.
I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.
Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.
By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.
I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
Thank you for proving my point!
Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
Just out of interest how old are you @HYUFD ? That comment puts you over 40 if you could vote in 97. I don't know why but I imagined you as late 20s or early 30s. My guess wasn't actually based on anything really.
I am just under 40, I could not vote in 1997 but I did canvass with a friend's mother who was a local Tory member.
I attended my first campaign rally in 1992 for Major in rural Gravesham when he was on his soapbox and have been involved campaigning for the Conservatives in some capacity in every general election since
A few days ago I said I was going to listen some more to Chris Bryant.
He was on the radio this morning re: the current imbroglio.
I was impressed.
Chris Bryant's book, The Glamour Boys, about 1930s MPs, mainly gay, mainly Conservative, who supported Churchill in his opposition to Hitler and the government's policy of appeasement, is worth a read, though I do wish Bryant were a better writer.
I've normal thought him a little sanctimonious, but this AM he drew on his past experience as a priest beautifully and relevantly - 'As a former Vicar, I have taken funerals for a lot of suicides, and understand the agony of the family.' Spot on.
Interesting point - the field work on this poll was Oct 29 - Nov 4 so much of it was *before* Paterson row dominated headlines (debate was Nov 3, U-turn Nov 4). Next one should be fascinating...
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 4m Are we "out of the woods yet"? a) Is there any possibility of the NHS being swamped by people with Covid? - No. b) Is the covid epidemic over (ie is it no longer possible for covid cases to grow exponentially for an extended period)? Yes. So yes, we're out of the woods.
It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.
A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.
I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.
Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.
By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.
I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
Thank you for proving my point!
Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
"regardless of how corrupt they are or how far they drift from the principles I believe in"
If they lost power the Conservatives would move right anyway and back to core principles in opposition, just as Labour moved left and back to core principles when it lost power in 2010
It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.
A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.
I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.
Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.
By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.
I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
Thank you for proving my point!
Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
Just out of interest how old are you @HYUFD ? That comment puts you over 40 if you could vote in 97. I don't know why but I imagined you as late 20s or early 30s. My guess wasn't actually based on anything really.
I am just under 40, I could not vote in 1997 but I did canvass with a friend's mother who was a local Tory member.
I attended my first campaign rally in 1992 for Major in rural Gravesham when he was on his soapbox and have been involved campaigning for the Conservatives in some capacity in every general election since
On the metric so beloved of lifelong PB Tories that people become more right wing as they become older, I imagine that you’ll be full blown Alternative für UK in a decade.
It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.
A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.
I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.
Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.
By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.
I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
Thank you for proving my point!
Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
Just out of interest how old are you @HYUFD ? That comment puts you over 40 if you could vote in 97. I don't know why but I imagined you as late 20s or early 30s. My guess wasn't actually based on anything really.
I am just under 40, I could not vote in 1997 but I did canvass with a friend's mother who was a local Tory member.
I attended my first campaign rally in 1992 for Major in rural Gravesham when he was on his soapbox and have been involved campaigning for the Conservatives in some capacity in every general election since
Life begins at 40. Ask yourself what your values and principles are, then look at the party you are attached to like a limpet and realise you parted ways morally a long time before.
If you are a Majorite Tory why are you condoning Borisite blue Labour policies that you have opposed all this time? What is the point in you keeping Labour out only to do what Labour do? If you are a Majorite Tory why condone outrageous corruption?
That moment of absolute clarity when you realise the party is beneath you and you walk away is golden. I hope you enjoy it - and the personal cleansing of your own morality - as much as I did.
On MPs pay and expenses I'd do as much as possible to structure the system so that malfeasance was difficult.
For example, every MP needs to staff an office, so why not have a central pool of Parliamentary staff, and/or local council staff, to employ people for this purpose? Then you remove a burden of administration from MPs, and the temptation to push the limits of what is acceptable in terms of spending taxpayers money on employing relatives or friends.
Similarly, every MP a certain distance from London will require accommodation in London, so rather than provide expenses that help MPs to make a profit from the property market, simply buy sufficient flats for the use of MPs.
You could issue MPs with a free rail travel pass (for standard class), and then if they want to upgrade to First they can pay for that, and they don't need to deal with the overhead of claiming for expenses.
On pay it's tempting to be idealistic and want MPs not to be motivated by the MPs salary, so not to pay them, but then they will end up being paid, or sponsored, by others. Trade Unions, the central party, etc, and that payment will clearly be conditional to some extent. If the voters don't pay their MPs they will find their MPs serving a different paymaster.
IPSOS MORI too so not some fly by night newish polling company. Just one poll but continues a general trend, and probably worthy of a new header.
But another example of people being annoyed with the Tories, but not flocking to Labour.
The left of centre vote is strikingly high though now. Even if you exclude the Lib Dems it is implied at over 50%.
Only if you include Scotland and the SNP voteshare, minus Scotland the Tories would likely still have a majority in England and Wales even on the new Ipsos Mori (plus with the DUP in England and Wales and NI).
Though yes it does suggest Starmer would become PM if he could get SNP confidence and supply
For a staunch Unionist you seem to be very keen to ignore the presence of Scottish MPs at Westminster!
I am not opposed to Starmer becoming UK PM thanks to Scottish MPs as a Unionist.
However as I have said before I would prefer an English parliament too so if England elects a majority of Conservative MPs and gets a Labour PM (supported by the SNP) it can still determine much of its own domestic policy much as Scotland and Wales have their own parliaments for much of their domestic policy if they have a Conservative PM they did not vote for as now
There needs to be an English Parliament, on that we agree.
The problem is, how do we do it without repeating the Scotland exercise of spending billions on more politicians, their hangers-on and fancy buildings to house them all?
It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.
A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.
I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.
Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.
By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.
I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
Thank you for proving my point!
Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
Just out of interest how old are you @HYUFD ? That comment puts you over 40 if you could vote in 97. I don't know why but I imagined you as late 20s or early 30s. My guess wasn't actually based on anything really.
I am just under 40, I could not vote in 1997 but I did canvass with a friend's mother who was a local Tory member.
I attended my first campaign rally in 1992 for Major in rural Gravesham when he was on his soapbox and have been involved campaigning for the Conservatives in some capacity in every general election since
On the metric so beloved of lifelong PB Tories that people become more right wing as they become older, I imagine that you’ll be full blown Alternative für UK in a decade.
I believe HYUFD has already expressed some qualified admiration for General Franco (no I am not joking), so you might want to revise that estimate.
The big problem is not how much MPs are paid... 😂"When reading of the latest cock-up, scandal or crony controversy the same question floats to mind: how on earth is this person a member of parliament?"
Oh that's easy - anyone with a brain knows there are way less stressful ways to earn money.
And there are enough constituents who believe they need their problem fixed now that it's now a 24/7 job.
MPs are amongst the top 3% of earners.
Do you think that 97% of the country lacks a brain?
The truth is that MPs are being paid (even including the expense stuff) a wage that is easily achievable within a 5 years of working in IT in London.
A fixed wage - so as they go forward, they fall behind their contemporaries.....
I have a suggestion - what about a system of promotion and pay increases? A career as an MP? At the moment, a back bencher of 30 yeas experience is paid the same as someone 20 minutes into the job....
I don't see what IT kids in the City have to do with it.
MPs have an independent pay review body, and - I assume - benchmarks.
There are hundreds of MPs who get extra boosts or allowances for responsibilty or position. Some of them are backbenchers.
Are there? There weren't in my day. You got £0 for being on a Select Committee (except the Chair, I think), £0 for being a PPS. Ministers do get a salary for the extra work.
I think you left ("were left", I suppose ) just as the new system came in.
My big fears are secrecy, giving in to the "all motivation is by money" lobby we have to some extent on PB, and regulatory capture, which I think will horribly damage politics.
Similar but less extensive on the Opposition side. How extensive? What about 2nd, 3rd etc Opposition Parties. Does Ed Davey or Ian Blackford benefit?
Office Holders - Select Committee Chairs as you say, but also Speaker, Dep Speakers, whips and others. I am not sure what else. What about Chris Bryant's committee, for example? I think "relevant" Committee Chairs and Members of the "Panel" (not sure how it works) receive around 15k-20k extra.
At a punt I would put it at 1/5 to 1/3 of the Commons, which is 130-215 individuals receiving extra salary. Which may just meet "hundreds", or I may have exaggerated a little.
I guess one could argue that the main hole is backbench seniority.
It's an interesting moment. To do a 'Blair' again Labour have to do two jobs. The first is being gifted to them - to portray the government as mired in sleaze and all that, and keep it up for the next two years.
The second is to have a broad leadership which exudes competence and clarity, and beyond doubt has better policies on offer on the subjects that are big for the key voters.
These are things like post-Brexit strategy and vision, housing, transport, education, jobs, debt, deficit, interest rates, inflation, tax, NHS, social care, defence, the union, migration, CO2, free speech, taming the extremes of left and right, terrorism and so on.
Because they are so behind in this they still have little chance of winning, and only a even chance of leading the next government. They should be 20 points ahead.
Where are the killer three word slogans?
Make Brexit Work
Keir is sticking to this and needs to have his front bench team hammering it in every interview. We are where we are. The EU is the past, our trading relationship the future. We need to Make Brexit Work to deliver the hope that people have for our future however they voted.
At the moment too much of the message is "Brexit doesn't work and you are stupid". Change it to "Brexit doesn't work, but it could" and its a mirror held up to Tory failure to deliver. More so if we embark on a trade war.
Interesting point - the field work on this poll was Oct 29 - Nov 4 so much of it was *before* Paterson row dominated headlines (debate was Nov 3, U-turn Nov 4). Next one should be fascinating...
Congrats to those who bet on this happening by end of year.
That Green vote will be squeezed at a GE, mainly for Labour, so Labour may actually be on ≈ 40%
Kaboom.
Yes, that's right. If I were a Tory, I'd be worried about that 11% Green vote. One can say fairly confidently that their second choice wouldn't be Tory; most likely Labour, possibly Lib Dem. If 3% went to Labour, 2% to Lib Dem, with the rest staying Green, that would be enough to scupper the Tories. As it is, I reckon much of that Green vote is left-wing Labour who will be persuaded to vote Labour to oust Tories in marginal seats.
It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.
A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.
I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.
Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.
By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.
I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
Thank you for proving my point!
Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
Just out of interest how old are you @HYUFD ? That comment puts you over 40 if you could vote in 97. I don't know why but I imagined you as late 20s or early 30s. My guess wasn't actually based on anything really.
I am just under 40, I could not vote in 1997 but I did canvass with a friend's mother who was a local Tory member.
I attended my first campaign rally in 1992 for Major in rural Gravesham when he was on his soapbox and have been involved campaigning for the Conservatives in some capacity in every general election since
Life begins at 40. Ask yourself what your values and principles are, then look at the party you are attached to like a limpet and realise you parted ways morally a long time before.
If you are a Majorite Tory why are you condoning Borisite blue Labour policies that you have opposed all this time? What is the point in you keeping Labour out only to do what Labour do? If you are a Majorite Tory why condone outrageous corruption?
That moment of absolute clarity when you realise the party is beneath you and you walk away is golden. I hope you enjoy it - and the personal cleansing of your own morality - as much as I did.
I am not a Majorite Tory, I am just a Tory.
I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris (and briefly met Thatcher once at a reception)
Alex Wickham @alexwickham · 1h Other than the £400,000 Geoffrey Cox is trousering as a consultant, his register of interests suggests he is doing up to 80 hours a month on outside work. Which means nearly 2 weeks each month he isn’t working as an MP. Sounds like he’s preparing for a by-election
That Green vote will be squeezed at a GE, mainly for Labour, so Labour may actually be on ≈ 40%
Kaboom.
Yes, that's right. If I were a Tory, I'd be worried about that 11% Green vote. One can say fairly confidently that their second choice wouldn't be Tory; most likely Labour, possibly Lib Dem. If 3% went to Labour, 2% to Lib Dem, with the rest staying Green, that would be enough to scupper the Tories. As it is, I reckon much of that Green vote is left-wing Labour who will be persuaded to vote Labour to oust Tories in marginal seats.
Do not discount some of that Green vote being Conservatives. There's a type of conservative/green person out there who is interested in the local environment, doesn't want big infrastructure development near their village, etc, who would happily migrate between blue and green depending on circumstance. I reckon a good 1 or 2 pp of that Green 11% could be more likely to go Conservative than anywhere else.
That Green vote will be squeezed at a GE, mainly for Labour, so Labour may actually be on ≈ 40%
Kaboom.
Yes, that's right. If I were a Tory, I'd be worried about that 11% Green vote. One can say fairly confidently that their second choice wouldn't be Tory; most likely Labour, possibly Lib Dem. If 3% went to Labour, 2% to Lib Dem, with the rest staying Green, that would be enough to scupper the Tories. As it is, I reckon much of that Green vote is left-wing Labour who will be persuaded to vote Labour to oust Tories in marginal seats.
Is this a London only poll (as it's Evening Standard)?
IPSOS MORI too so not some fly by night newish polling company. Just one poll but continues a general trend, and probably worthy of a new header.
But another example of people being annoyed with the Tories, but not flocking to Labour.
The left of centre vote is strikingly high though now. Even if you exclude the Lib Dems it is implied at over 50%.
Only if you include Scotland and the SNP voteshare, minus Scotland the Tories would likely still have a majority in England and Wales even on the new Ipsos Mori (plus with the DUP in England and Wales and NI).
Though yes it does suggest Starmer would become PM if he could get SNP confidence and supply
For a staunch Unionist you seem to be very keen to ignore the presence of Scottish MPs at Westminster!
I am not opposed to Starmer becoming UK PM thanks to Scottish MPs as a Unionist.
However as I have said before I would prefer an English parliament too so if England elects a majority of Conservative MPs and gets a Labour PM (supported by the SNP) it can still determine much of its own domestic policy much as Scotland and Wales have their own parliaments for much of their domestic policy if they have a Conservative PM they did not vote for as now
There needs to be an English Parliament, on that we agree.
The problem is, how do we do it without repeating the Scotland exercise of spending billions on more politicians, their hangers-on and fancy buildings to house them all?
If we are spending that on Parliaments in Scotland and Wales and the NI Assembly it is only fair we do the same in England. Just build an English Parliament in York so it could boost the local economy there up North and leave Westminster as a genuine Federal Parliament in London.
That would also decrease regional resentment of London
IPSOS MORI too so not some fly by night newish polling company. Just one poll but continues a general trend, and probably worthy of a new header.
But another example of people being annoyed with the Tories, but not flocking to Labour.
The left of centre vote is strikingly high though now. Even if you exclude the Lib Dems it is implied at over 50%.
Only if you include Scotland and the SNP voteshare, minus Scotland the Tories would likely still have a majority in England and Wales even on the new Ipsos Mori (plus with the DUP in England and Wales and NI).
Though yes it does suggest Starmer would become PM if he could get SNP confidence and supply
For a staunch Unionist you seem to be very keen to ignore the presence of Scottish MPs at Westminster!
I am not opposed to Starmer becoming UK PM thanks to Scottish MPs as a Unionist.
However as I have said before I would prefer an English parliament too so if England elects a majority of Conservative MPs and gets a Labour PM (supported by the SNP) it can still determine much of its own domestic policy much as Scotland and Wales have their own parliaments for much of their domestic policy if they have a Conservative PM they did not vote for as now
There needs to be an English Parliament, on that we agree.
The problem is, how do we do it without repeating the Scotland exercise of spending billions on more politicians, their hangers-on and fancy buildings to house them all?
With the renovation of Westminster costing ‘at least’ £12b and the continuing financial drag of the HoL (essentially an English flummery), you seem to have already spent those billions.
That Green vote will be squeezed at a GE, mainly for Labour, so Labour may actually be on ≈ 40%
Kaboom.
Yes, that's right. If I were a Tory, I'd be worried about that 11% Green vote. One can say fairly confidently that their second choice wouldn't be Tory; most likely Labour, possibly Lib Dem. If 3% went to Labour, 2% to Lib Dem, with the rest staying Green, that would be enough to scupper the Tories. As it is, I reckon much of that Green vote is left-wing Labour who will be persuaded to vote Labour to oust Tories in marginal seats.
Do not discount some of that Green vote being Conservatives. There's a type of conservative/green person out there who is interested in the local environment, doesn't want big infrastructure development near their village, etc, who would happily migrate between blue and green depending on circumstance. I reckon a good 1 or 2 pp of that Green 11% could be more likely to go Conservative than anywhere else.
ye coudl be previous tory voters virtue signalling when it does not matter (ie to a pollster ) especially during cop26
Interesting point - the field work on this poll was Oct 29 - Nov 4 so much of it was *before* Paterson row dominated headlines (debate was Nov 3, U-turn Nov 4). Next one should be fascinating...
It was mostly taken before Paterson's resignation though
I called this scandal as the one that could end Johnson and I'm sticking to it.
It isn't just the corruption its the handling of the corruption. The unforced errors pouring out of Downing Street. The idiocy of lecturing us all on the environment then having a private jet / supercharged RR trip to the Garrick to eat Peasant with climate change deniers who persuade you to go after the commissioner.
The absurd whipping operation forcing Tory MPs to do something they know is wrong because if they don't their town has had it. And then reversing course almost immediately. Insisting it has nothing to do with the PM when everyone can see that it does. The storm in a teacup comments. The "he'll watch on TV comments".
Yes there is corruption over peerages and PPE contracts and planning and the Downing Street Flat refurb. And they got away with all of them individually so far. But pile them altogether and make both the public and your own MPs enraged and its hard to pretend it isn't an issue.
If - and it remains an if - this story retains its current legs. And we start seeing the local anger in Tory seats building. With increasing polls showing all the metrics going south. The idea that Boris / Beaker / Clown / Liar isn't called out for all that isn't so outrageous. People have been removed for less.
That Green vote will be squeezed at a GE, mainly for Labour, so Labour may actually be on ≈ 40%
Kaboom.
Yes, that's right. If I were a Tory, I'd be worried about that 11% Green vote. One can say fairly confidently that their second choice wouldn't be Tory; most likely Labour, possibly Lib Dem. If 3% went to Labour, 2% to Lib Dem, with the rest staying Green, that would be enough to scupper the Tories. As it is, I reckon much of that Green vote is left-wing Labour who will be persuaded to vote Labour to oust Tories in marginal seats.
Is this a London only poll (as it's Evening Standard)?
That Green vote will be squeezed at a GE, mainly for Labour, so Labour may actually be on ≈ 40%
Kaboom.
Maybe. Though there is still very little direct switching between Tories and Labour.
Certainty to vote is very high among Labour voters and very low among Tory voters, which is particularly striking given the age difference, and many Tory voters are also saying they don't know who they will vote for.
You'd expect a lot of those saying don't know/might not bother will end up voting Tory, and Labour turnout often disappoints.
For all that it's tempting to say the pandemic makes this an unusual time, that looks like a typical mid-term pattern in the polling.
It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.
A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.
I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.
Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.
By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.
I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
Thank you for proving my point!
Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
Just out of interest how old are you @HYUFD ? That comment puts you over 40 if you could vote in 97. I don't know why but I imagined you as late 20s or early 30s. My guess wasn't actually based on anything really.
I am just under 40, I could not vote in 1997 but I did canvass with a friend's mother who was a local Tory member.
I attended my first campaign rally in 1992 for Major in rural Gravesham when he was on his soapbox and have been involved campaigning for the Conservatives in some capacity in every general election since
On the metric so beloved of lifelong PB Tories that people become more right wing as they become older, I imagine that you’ll be full blown Alternative für UK in a decade.
I believe HYUFD has already expressed some qualified admiration for General Franco (no I am not joking), so you might want to revise that estimate.
Fair enough. 2031: El Caudillo? Pah, I spit on his lily livered liberalism and weakness in not executing all of his opponents.
It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.
A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.
I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.
Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.
By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.
I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
Thank you for proving my point!
Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
Just out of interest how old are you @HYUFD ? That comment puts you over 40 if you could vote in 97. I don't know why but I imagined you as late 20s or early 30s. My guess wasn't actually based on anything really.
I am just under 40, I could not vote in 1997 but I did canvass with a friend's mother who was a local Tory member.
I attended my first campaign rally in 1992 for Major in rural Gravesham when he was on his soapbox and have been involved campaigning for the Conservatives in some capacity in every general election since
Life begins at 40. Ask yourself what your values and principles are, then look at the party you are attached to like a limpet and realise you parted ways morally a long time before.
If you are a Majorite Tory why are you condoning Borisite blue Labour policies that you have opposed all this time? What is the point in you keeping Labour out only to do what Labour do? If you are a Majorite Tory why condone outrageous corruption?
That moment of absolute clarity when you realise the party is beneath you and you walk away is golden. I hope you enjoy it - and the personal cleansing of your own morality - as much as I did.
I am not a Majorite Tory, I am just a Tory.
I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris (and briefly met Thatcher once at a reception)
And the rest? You'll back your party regardless of what it does or how it clashes with your own principles because it's your party?
Alex Wickham @alexwickham · 1h Other than the £400,000 Geoffrey Cox is trousering as a consultant, his register of interests suggests he is doing up to 80 hours a month on outside work. Which means nearly 2 weeks each month he isn’t working as an MP. Sounds like he’s preparing for a by-election
I think he's a top QC so has returned to practice after his spell as a law officer. Quite a well-established tradition among lawyer-MPs.
That Green vote will be squeezed at a GE, mainly for Labour, so Labour may actually be on ≈ 40%
Kaboom.
Yes, that's right. If I were a Tory, I'd be worried about that 11% Green vote. One can say fairly confidently that their second choice wouldn't be Tory; most likely Labour, possibly Lib Dem. If 3% went to Labour, 2% to Lib Dem, with the rest staying Green, that would be enough to scupper the Tories. As it is, I reckon much of that Green vote is left-wing Labour who will be persuaded to vote Labour to oust Tories in marginal seats.
Do not discount some of that Green vote being Conservatives.
I'm not saying these people don't exist but I'm a Greens member and have never met one. I think they would be particularly thin on the ground with the current Norsefire incarnation of the tory party led by the Shit Man of Europe.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 4m Are we "out of the woods yet"? a) Is there any possibility of the NHS being swamped by people with Covid? - No. b) Is the covid epidemic over (ie is it no longer possible for covid cases to grow exponentially for an extended period)? Yes. So yes, we're out of the woods.
I agree that the emergency is over. So it's time for the emergency powers to go.
Wonder how much longer that will take, across the UK as a whole?
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 4m Are we "out of the woods yet"? a) Is there any possibility of the NHS being swamped by people with Covid? - No. b) Is the covid epidemic over (ie is it no longer possible for covid cases to grow exponentially for an extended period)? Yes. So yes, we're out of the woods.
I agree that the emergency is over. So it's time for the emergency powers to go.
Wonder how much longer that will take, across the UK as a whole?
I'm about a week from mentally unfurling the "Mission Successful" banner.
This new poll is mega if it solidifies. It means Con support is falling below the (thus far) stubborn 40% base that makes them very hard to shift under FPTP.
That Green vote will be squeezed at a GE, mainly for Labour, so Labour may actually be on ≈ 40%
Kaboom.
Yes, that's right. If I were a Tory, I'd be worried about that 11% Green vote. One can say fairly confidently that their second choice wouldn't be Tory; most likely Labour, possibly Lib Dem. If 3% went to Labour, 2% to Lib Dem, with the rest staying Green, that would be enough to scupper the Tories. As it is, I reckon much of that Green vote is left-wing Labour who will be persuaded to vote Labour to oust Tories in marginal seats.
Do not discount some of that Green vote being Conservatives.
I'm not saying these people don't exist but I'm a Greens member and have never met one. I think they would be particularly thin on the ground with the current incarnation of the tory party led by the Shit Man of Europe.
I really wouldn't expect them to be members, I think the membership is much more representative of the left-green side of the Greens.
I do think there's an element of people saying whatever to pollsters when there's not actually an election looming. Lots of people will say Green and not actually vote for them, I think that much is uncontroversial. I just think some of those are Cons.
Interesting point - the field work on this poll was Oct 29 - Nov 4 so much of it was *before* Paterson row dominated headlines (debate was Nov 3, U-turn Nov 4). Next one should be fascinating...
It was mostly taken before Paterson's resignation though
So are you expecting Cons sub 30% at the next sampling?
It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.
A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.
I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.
Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.
By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.
I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
Thank you for proving my point!
Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
Just out of interest how old are you @HYUFD ? That comment puts you over 40 if you could vote in 97. I don't know why but I imagined you as late 20s or early 30s. My guess wasn't actually based on anything really.
I am just under 40, I could not vote in 1997 but I did canvass with a friend's mother who was a local Tory member.
I attended my first campaign rally in 1992 for Major in rural Gravesham when he was on his soapbox and have been involved campaigning for the Conservatives in some capacity in every general election since
Life begins at 40. Ask yourself what your values and principles are, then look at the party you are attached to like a limpet and realise you parted ways morally a long time before.
If you are a Majorite Tory why are you condoning Borisite blue Labour policies that you have opposed all this time? What is the point in you keeping Labour out only to do what Labour do? If you are a Majorite Tory why condone outrageous corruption?
That moment of absolute clarity when you realise the party is beneath you and you walk away is golden. I hope you enjoy it - and the personal cleansing of your own morality - as much as I did.
I am not a Majorite Tory, I am just a Tory.
I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris (and briefly met Thatcher once at a reception)
And the rest? You'll back your party regardless of what it does or how it clashes with your own principles because it's your party?
Like a football team in other words.
Whoever leads the party it will always be more in tune with my conservative principles than Labour or the LDs
Interesting point - the field work on this poll was Oct 29 - Nov 4 so much of it was *before* Paterson row dominated headlines (debate was Nov 3, U-turn Nov 4). Next one should be fascinating...
It was mostly taken before Paterson's resignation though
So are you expecting Cons sub 30% at the next sampling?
No, I expect now the issue has faded the Conservatives may rebound a little
It's an interesting moment. To do a 'Blair' again Labour have to do two jobs. The first is being gifted to them - to portray the government as mired in sleaze and all that, and keep it up for the next two years.
The second is to have a broad leadership which exudes competence and clarity, and beyond doubt has better policies on offer on the subjects that are big for the key voters.
These are things like post-Brexit strategy and vision, housing, transport, education, jobs, debt, deficit, interest rates, inflation, tax, NHS, social care, defence, the union, migration, CO2, free speech, taming the extremes of left and right, terrorism and so on.
Because they are so behind in this they still have little chance of winning, and only a even chance of leading the next government. They should be 20 points ahead.
Where are the killer three word slogans?
Make Brexit Work
Keir is sticking to this and needs to have his front bench team hammering it in every interview. We are where we are. The EU is the past, our trading relationship the future. We need to Make Brexit Work to deliver the hope that people have for our future however they voted.
At the moment too much of the message is "Brexit doesn't work and you are stupid". Change it to "Brexit doesn't work, but it could" and its a mirror held up to Tory failure to deliver. More so if we embark on a trade war.
Labour's biggest danger is if it looks like they will open the flood gates on unskilled immigration again.
Interesting point - the field work on this poll was Oct 29 - Nov 4 so much of it was *before* Paterson row dominated headlines (debate was Nov 3, U-turn Nov 4). Next one should be fascinating...
It was mostly taken before Paterson's resignation though
So are you expecting Cons sub 30% at the next sampling?
No, I expect now the issue has faded the Conservatives may rebound a little
You may be right; probably got your finger closer to the pulse, but doesn't look it's fading to me.
It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.
A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.
I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.
Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.
By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.
I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
Thank you for proving my point!
Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
Just out of interest how old are you @HYUFD ? That comment puts you over 40 if you could vote in 97. I don't know why but I imagined you as late 20s or early 30s. My guess wasn't actually based on anything really.
I am just under 40, I could not vote in 1997 but I did canvass with a friend's mother who was a local Tory member.
I attended my first campaign rally in 1992 for Major in rural Gravesham when he was on his soapbox and have been involved campaigning for the Conservatives in some capacity in every general election since
Life begins at 40. Ask yourself what your values and principles are, then look at the party you are attached to like a limpet and realise you parted ways morally a long time before.
If you are a Majorite Tory why are you condoning Borisite blue Labour policies that you have opposed all this time? What is the point in you keeping Labour out only to do what Labour do? If you are a Majorite Tory why condone outrageous corruption?
That moment of absolute clarity when you realise the party is beneath you and you walk away is golden. I hope you enjoy it - and the personal cleansing of your own morality - as much as I did.
I am not a Majorite Tory, I am just a Tory.
I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris (and briefly met Thatcher once at a reception)
And the rest? You'll back your party regardless of what it does or how it clashes with your own principles because it's your party?
Like a football team in other words.
Whoever leads the party it will always be more in tune with my conservative principles than Labour or the LDs
No matter how brazenly corrupt? No matter if they implement all those Labour policies you disagree with in principle?
Is your membership and support for the Conservative Party worth anything more than "my team whatever they do"? Its just that you make all these moralistic principled judgements on other people whilst displaying that you have none of your own...
Interesting point - the field work on this poll was Oct 29 - Nov 4 so much of it was *before* Paterson row dominated headlines (debate was Nov 3, U-turn Nov 4). Next one should be fascinating...
It was mostly taken before Paterson's resignation though
So are you expecting Cons sub 30% at the next sampling?
No, I expect now the issue has faded the Conservatives may rebound a little
Boris's wallpaper may have faded, but I'm not convinced the Paterson debacle has yet.
That Green vote will be squeezed at a GE, mainly for Labour, so Labour may actually be on ≈ 40%
Kaboom.
Yes, that's right. If I were a Tory, I'd be worried about that 11% Green vote. One can say fairly confidently that their second choice wouldn't be Tory; most likely Labour, possibly Lib Dem. If 3% went to Labour, 2% to Lib Dem, with the rest staying Green, that would be enough to scupper the Tories. As it is, I reckon much of that Green vote is left-wing Labour who will be persuaded to vote Labour to oust Tories in marginal seats.
Do not discount some of that Green vote being Conservatives. There's a type of conservative/green person out there who is interested in the local environment, doesn't want big infrastructure development near their village, etc, who would happily migrate between blue and green depending on circumstance. I reckon a good 1 or 2 pp of that Green 11% could be more likely to go Conservative than anywhere else.
The Greens nationally are a left wing party though. Well left of Labour. Also very europhile. I'd be surprised if there were many in that 11% who are open to voting for this Johnson Tory Brexit government come the election.
Interesting point - the field work on this poll was Oct 29 - Nov 4 so much of it was *before* Paterson row dominated headlines (debate was Nov 3, U-turn Nov 4). Next one should be fascinating...
It was mostly taken before Paterson's resignation though
So are you expecting Cons sub 30% at the next sampling?
No, I expect now the issue has faded the Conservatives may rebound a little
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 4m Are we "out of the woods yet"? a) Is there any possibility of the NHS being swamped by people with Covid? - No. b) Is the covid epidemic over (ie is it no longer possible for covid cases to grow exponentially for an extended period)? Yes. So yes, we're out of the woods.
I agree that the emergency is over. So it's time for the emergency powers to go.
Wonder how much longer that will take, across the UK as a whole?
Apart from further disaster (always possible) this is much more about the psychology of groups than reason and science. IMHO on current progress we will feel generally to be out of crisis mode by end of March/beginning of April, with that being two years from initial lockdown as a sort of impromptu marker.
Reason and science (I think) says establish a permanent vaccination strategy nationwide, as with flu, and get on with life using your common sense.
Group behaviour at the moment tends to be too cautious, or too reckless.
It's an interesting moment. To do a 'Blair' again Labour have to do two jobs. The first is being gifted to them - to portray the government as mired in sleaze and all that, and keep it up for the next two years.
The second is to have a broad leadership which exudes competence and clarity, and beyond doubt has better policies on offer on the subjects that are big for the key voters.
These are things like post-Brexit strategy and vision, housing, transport, education, jobs, debt, deficit, interest rates, inflation, tax, NHS, social care, defence, the union, migration, CO2, free speech, taming the extremes of left and right, terrorism and so on.
Because they are so behind in this they still have little chance of winning, and only a even chance of leading the next government. They should be 20 points ahead.
Where are the killer three word slogans?
Make Brexit Work
Keir is sticking to this and needs to have his front bench team hammering it in every interview. We are where we are. The EU is the past, our trading relationship the future. We need to Make Brexit Work to deliver the hope that people have for our future however they voted.
At the moment too much of the message is "Brexit doesn't work and you are stupid". Change it to "Brexit doesn't work, but it could" and its a mirror held up to Tory failure to deliver. More so if we embark on a trade war.
Would a version of that slogan work if it did not mention Brexit?
That Green vote will be squeezed at a GE, mainly for Labour, so Labour may actually be on ≈ 40%
Kaboom.
Yes, that's right. If I were a Tory, I'd be worried about that 11% Green vote. One can say fairly confidently that their second choice wouldn't be Tory; most likely Labour, possibly Lib Dem. If 3% went to Labour, 2% to Lib Dem, with the rest staying Green, that would be enough to scupper the Tories. As it is, I reckon much of that Green vote is left-wing Labour who will be persuaded to vote Labour to oust Tories in marginal seats.
Do not discount some of that Green vote being Conservatives.
I'm not saying these people don't exist but I'm a Greens member and have never met one. I think they would be particularly thin on the ground with the current incarnation of the tory party led by the Shit Man of Europe.
I really wouldn't expect them to be members, I think the membership is much more representative of the left-green side of the Greens.
I do think there's an element of people saying whatever to pollsters when there's not actually an election looming. Lots of people will say Green and not actually vote for them, I think that much is uncontroversial. I just think some of those are Cons.
In a recent YouGov that put the Greens on 9%, 6 of the poll respondents were 2019 Tories now saying they'd vote Green, 41 2019 Labour voters saying the same and 16 Jo Swinson to be next PM voters also profess to be poised to vote Green.
So the Tory-to-Green switchers are there, but outnumbered almost 10-1 by those from Labour and Lib Dems.
Funny how he can get back to London on time if it's for dinner with old pals at a gentlemens club, but not to face MPs on the scandals engulfing his party
Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.
5..4..3..2..
That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
Funny how he can get back to London on time if it's for dinner with old pals at a gentlemens club, but not to face MPs on the scandals engulfing his party
Maybe they can’t get the fridge in which BJ is quivering through the aircraft door?
It's an interesting moment. To do a 'Blair' again Labour have to do two jobs. The first is being gifted to them - to portray the government as mired in sleaze and all that, and keep it up for the next two years.
The second is to have a broad leadership which exudes competence and clarity, and beyond doubt has better policies on offer on the subjects that are big for the key voters.
These are things like post-Brexit strategy and vision, housing, transport, education, jobs, debt, deficit, interest rates, inflation, tax, NHS, social care, defence, the union, migration, CO2, free speech, taming the extremes of left and right, terrorism and so on.
Because they are so behind in this they still have little chance of winning, and only a even chance of leading the next government. They should be 20 points ahead.
Where are the killer three word slogans?
Make Brexit Work
Keir is sticking to this and needs to have his front bench team hammering it in every interview. We are where we are. The EU is the past, our trading relationship the future. We need to Make Brexit Work to deliver the hope that people have for our future however they voted.
At the moment too much of the message is "Brexit doesn't work and you are stupid". Change it to "Brexit doesn't work, but it could" and its a mirror held up to Tory failure to deliver. More so if we embark on a trade war.
Labour's biggest danger is if it looks like they will open the flood gates on unskilled immigration again.
Possibly, though that's more wishful thinking based on the open goal they are attacking. We have a "points-based migration system" where we only offer work permits to the people we need.
The obvious attack is that this is not working. We need people for quite a few different industries and the government refuses to engage. What is the point of controlling migration if you don't actually control it? Unless the work "control" means "stop"?
It's an interesting moment. To do a 'Blair' again Labour have to do two jobs. The first is being gifted to them - to portray the government as mired in sleaze and all that, and keep it up for the next two years.
The second is to have a broad leadership which exudes competence and clarity, and beyond doubt has better policies on offer on the subjects that are big for the key voters.
These are things like post-Brexit strategy and vision, housing, transport, education, jobs, debt, deficit, interest rates, inflation, tax, NHS, social care, defence, the union, migration, CO2, free speech, taming the extremes of left and right, terrorism and so on.
Because they are so behind in this they still have little chance of winning, and only a even chance of leading the next government. They should be 20 points ahead.
Where are the killer three word slogans?
Make Brexit Work
Keir is sticking to this and needs to have his front bench team hammering it in every interview. We are where we are. The EU is the past, our trading relationship the future. We need to Make Brexit Work to deliver the hope that people have for our future however they voted.
At the moment too much of the message is "Brexit doesn't work and you are stupid". Change it to "Brexit doesn't work, but it could" and its a mirror held up to Tory failure to deliver. More so if we embark on a trade war.
Labour's biggest danger is if it looks like they will open the flood gates on unskilled immigration again.
Polling suggests big shifts in public opinion in recent years to being much more positive about immigration. The narrative on unskilled immigration can be changed: you talk about the shortages on shelves and the shortages of people to do the jobs, for example.
Funny how he can get back to London on time if it's for dinner with old pals at a gentlemens club, but not to face MPs on the scandals engulfing his party
This TV that Trevalyan says he will be watching on.
Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.
5..4..3..2..
That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
It's an interesting moment. To do a 'Blair' again Labour have to do two jobs. The first is being gifted to them - to portray the government as mired in sleaze and all that, and keep it up for the next two years.
The second is to have a broad leadership which exudes competence and clarity, and beyond doubt has better policies on offer on the subjects that are big for the key voters.
These are things like post-Brexit strategy and vision, housing, transport, education, jobs, debt, deficit, interest rates, inflation, tax, NHS, social care, defence, the union, migration, CO2, free speech, taming the extremes of left and right, terrorism and so on.
Because they are so behind in this they still have little chance of winning, and only a even chance of leading the next government. They should be 20 points ahead.
Where are the killer three word slogans?
Make Brexit Work
Keir is sticking to this and needs to have his front bench team hammering it in every interview. We are where we are. The EU is the past, our trading relationship the future. We need to Make Brexit Work to deliver the hope that people have for our future however they voted.
At the moment too much of the message is "Brexit doesn't work and you are stupid". Change it to "Brexit doesn't work, but it could" and its a mirror held up to Tory failure to deliver. More so if we embark on a trade war.
Labour's biggest danger is if it looks like they will open the flood gates on unskilled immigration again.
Polling suggests big shifts in public opinion in recent years to being much more positive about immigration. The narrative on unskilled immigration can be changed: you talk about the shortages on shelves and the shortages of people to do the jobs, for example.
People back the points system, based on skills shortages and needs, not open door immigration
Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.
5..4..3..2..
That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
That Green vote will be squeezed at a GE, mainly for Labour, so Labour may actually be on ≈ 40%
Kaboom.
Yes, that's right. If I were a Tory, I'd be worried about that 11% Green vote. One can say fairly confidently that their second choice wouldn't be Tory; most likely Labour, possibly Lib Dem. If 3% went to Labour, 2% to Lib Dem, with the rest staying Green, that would be enough to scupper the Tories. As it is, I reckon much of that Green vote is left-wing Labour who will be persuaded to vote Labour to oust Tories in marginal seats.
Do not discount some of that Green vote being Conservatives.
I'm not saying these people don't exist but I'm a Greens member and have never met one. I think they would be particularly thin on the ground with the current incarnation of the tory party led by the Shit Man of Europe.
I really wouldn't expect them to be members, I think the membership is much more representative of the left-green side of the Greens.
I do think there's an element of people saying whatever to pollsters when there's not actually an election looming. Lots of people will say Green and not actually vote for them, I think that much is uncontroversial. I just think some of those are Cons.
In a recent YouGov that put the Greens on 9%, 6 of the poll respondents were 2019 Tories now saying they'd vote Green, 41 2019 Labour voters saying the same and 16 Jo Swinson to be next PM voters also profess to be poised to vote Green.
So the Tory-to-Green switchers are there, but outnumbered almost 10-1 by those from Labour and Lib Dems.
Great work, thanks. Looks like I might be overestimating them a touch, but with numbers as small of those, I'm probably well within the error bars.
Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.
5..4..3..2..
That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
Funny how he can get back to London on time if it's for dinner with old pals at a gentlemens club, but not to face MPs on the scandals engulfing his party
This TV that Trevalyan says he will be watching on.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 4m Are we "out of the woods yet"? a) Is there any possibility of the NHS being swamped by people with Covid? - No. b) Is the covid epidemic over (ie is it no longer possible for covid cases to grow exponentially for an extended period)? Yes. So yes, we're out of the woods.
I agree that the emergency is over. So it's time for the emergency powers to go.
Wonder how much longer that will take, across the UK as a whole?
Politicians love emergency powers. I suspect the one that loves them the most is Ms Sturgeon.
It’s not particularly enjoyable to watch PB turn into a slagging match where posters round on each other.
A good swedge is a pb.com highlight. Particularly if it's a tory blue-on-blue.
I would love to see one of them turn into an IRL punch up.
Yep, there's been quite a lot of blue-on-blue discord on here recently. Put Big G, HYUFD and PT in the same room and it would be mayhem.
By contrast, the red-on-red action has been pretty tame - just BJO switching sides. As for the yellows, well, they just don't bother arguing with one another.
I think this is a metaphor for wider issues of party unity.
Remember BigG and PT both voted for Blair though unlike me, if Labour got into government again and the Conservatives went into opposition I could see at least BigG shifting back to Labour or the LDs again
Thank you for proving my point!
Remember I spent 13 years campaigning and voting for the Conservatives in opposition, eventually the cycle will turn again but I will still be voting for and backing the blues.
Just out of interest how old are you @HYUFD ? That comment puts you over 40 if you could vote in 97. I don't know why but I imagined you as late 20s or early 30s. My guess wasn't actually based on anything really.
I am just under 40, I could not vote in 1997 but I did canvass with a friend's mother who was a local Tory member.
I attended my first campaign rally in 1992 for Major in rural Gravesham when he was on his soapbox and have been involved campaigning for the Conservatives in some capacity in every general election since
Life begins at 40. Ask yourself what your values and principles are, then look at the party you are attached to like a limpet and realise you parted ways morally a long time before.
If you are a Majorite Tory why are you condoning Borisite blue Labour policies that you have opposed all this time? What is the point in you keeping Labour out only to do what Labour do? If you are a Majorite Tory why condone outrageous corruption?
That moment of absolute clarity when you realise the party is beneath you and you walk away is golden. I hope you enjoy it - and the personal cleansing of your own morality - as much as I did.
I am not a Majorite Tory, I am just a Tory.
I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris (and briefly met Thatcher once at a reception)
And the rest? You'll back your party regardless of what it does or how it clashes with your own principles because it's your party?
Like a football team in other words.
Whoever leads the party it will always be more in tune with my conservative principles than Labour or the LDs
No matter how brazenly corrupt? No matter if they implement all those Labour policies you disagree with in principle?
Is your membership and support for the Conservative Party worth anything more than "my team whatever they do"? Its just that you make all these moralistic principled judgements on other people whilst displaying that you have none of your own...
They are not introducing higher inheritance tax or higher income tax or proposing to abolish the monarchy etc and if they did I would likely go to RefUK not Labour or the LDs.
In any case under Macmillan we had a Conservative government with large numbers of nationalised industries and a top rate of income tax significantly higher than it is now but it was still more conservative than Labour were
If you believe the chief executive of the NHS that NYT article is spot on still. Must be wonderful to be so unaccountable you can make such fantastical lies with impunity. 14x last year apparently for number in hospital, which given we were over 10k this time last year suggests there are currently more covid patients admitted than there are beds - only out by a factor of 20x.
It's an interesting moment. To do a 'Blair' again Labour have to do two jobs. The first is being gifted to them - to portray the government as mired in sleaze and all that, and keep it up for the next two years.
The second is to have a broad leadership which exudes competence and clarity, and beyond doubt has better policies on offer on the subjects that are big for the key voters.
These are things like post-Brexit strategy and vision, housing, transport, education, jobs, debt, deficit, interest rates, inflation, tax, NHS, social care, defence, the union, migration, CO2, free speech, taming the extremes of left and right, terrorism and so on.
Because they are so behind in this they still have little chance of winning, and only a even chance of leading the next government. They should be 20 points ahead.
Where are the killer three word slogans?
Make Brexit Work
Keir is sticking to this and needs to have his front bench team hammering it in every interview. We are where we are. The EU is the past, our trading relationship the future. We need to Make Brexit Work to deliver the hope that people have for our future however they voted.
At the moment too much of the message is "Brexit doesn't work and you are stupid". Change it to "Brexit doesn't work, but it could" and its a mirror held up to Tory failure to deliver. More so if we embark on a trade war.
I agree. 'Make Brexit Work' is a great slogan. It does 3 things. Tells leavers/floaters that Labour won't be restarting the psychodrama. Shows the focus is on pragmatism not europhile ideology. Paints 'Get Brexit Done' as both trivial (cf to making it work) and not fulfilled (since it isn't working).
It's an interesting moment. To do a 'Blair' again Labour have to do two jobs. The first is being gifted to them - to portray the government as mired in sleaze and all that, and keep it up for the next two years.
The second is to have a broad leadership which exudes competence and clarity, and beyond doubt has better policies on offer on the subjects that are big for the key voters.
These are things like post-Brexit strategy and vision, housing, transport, education, jobs, debt, deficit, interest rates, inflation, tax, NHS, social care, defence, the union, migration, CO2, free speech, taming the extremes of left and right, terrorism and so on.
Because they are so behind in this they still have little chance of winning, and only a even chance of leading the next government. They should be 20 points ahead.
Where are the killer three word slogans?
Make Brexit Work
Keir is sticking to this and needs to have his front bench team hammering it in every interview. We are where we are. The EU is the past, our trading relationship the future. We need to Make Brexit Work to deliver the hope that people have for our future however they voted.
At the moment too much of the message is "Brexit doesn't work and you are stupid". Change it to "Brexit doesn't work, but it could" and its a mirror held up to Tory failure to deliver. More so if we embark on a trade war.
Labour's biggest danger is if it looks like they will open the flood gates on unskilled immigration again.
Possibly, though that's more wishful thinking based on the open goal they are attacking. We have a "points-based migration system" where we only offer work permits to the people we need.
The obvious attack is that this is not working. We need people for quite a few different industries and the government refuses to engage. What is the point of controlling migration if you don't actually control it? Unless the work "control" means "stop"?
For most people - someone turning up and taking the job they want or having english people in the shop is all they care about.
Fix those 2 issues and for 90% of the population immigration is no longer a problem
If you believe the chief executive of the NHS that NYT article is spot on still. Must be wonderful to be so unaccountable you can make such fantastical lies with impunity. 14x last year apparently for number in hospital, which given we were over 10k this time last year suggests there are currently more covid patients admitted than there are beds - only out by a factor of 20x.
Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.
5..4..3..2..
That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
Really, people have been delighting in it?
Seems that way to me.
There's no delight in the people of Europe being let down by their politicians being unable to tell the scientists to get fucked. They're in for a pretty tough winter of lockdowns and not being able to see family and friends over Christmas. The fault is with their weak politicians not being able to withstand a few bad headlines over the deaths of vaccine refusers.
It's an interesting moment. To do a 'Blair' again Labour have to do two jobs. The first is being gifted to them - to portray the government as mired in sleaze and all that, and keep it up for the next two years.
The second is to have a broad leadership which exudes competence and clarity, and beyond doubt has better policies on offer on the subjects that are big for the key voters.
These are things like post-Brexit strategy and vision, housing, transport, education, jobs, debt, deficit, interest rates, inflation, tax, NHS, social care, defence, the union, migration, CO2, free speech, taming the extremes of left and right, terrorism and so on.
Because they are so behind in this they still have little chance of winning, and only a even chance of leading the next government. They should be 20 points ahead.
Where are the killer three word slogans?
Make Brexit Work
Keir is sticking to this and needs to have his front bench team hammering it in every interview. We are where we are. The EU is the past, our trading relationship the future. We need to Make Brexit Work to deliver the hope that people have for our future however they voted.
At the moment too much of the message is "Brexit doesn't work and you are stupid". Change it to "Brexit doesn't work, but it could" and its a mirror held up to Tory failure to deliver. More so if we embark on a trade war.
Labour's biggest danger is if it looks like they will open the flood gates on unskilled immigration again.
Polling suggests big shifts in public opinion in recent years to being much more positive about immigration. The narrative on unskilled immigration can be changed: you talk about the shortages on shelves and the shortages of people to do the jobs, for example.
People back the points system, based on skills shortages and needs, not open door immigration
I suggest people judge results more than the theoretical details of different methods.
Alex Wickham @alexwickham · 1h Other than the £400,000 Geoffrey Cox is trousering as a consultant, his register of interests suggests he is doing up to 80 hours a month on outside work. Which means nearly 2 weeks each month he isn’t working as an MP. Sounds like he’s preparing for a by-election
Of course that's not true as he is not restricted to 4O hrs per week. Lots of MPs work very long hours.
Euro narrative about to switch from worrying about cases, to point out how cases are not really the important factor.
5..4..3..2..
That would neatly mirror the Brexity narrative changing from "cases aren't important" to "look at all those cases!", so...
Why would they change their tune on that? Cases don't matter as long as it isn't leading to a big uptick in hospitalisations/deaths. Calling commentators out on their hypocrisy, however....
A few HAVE been trumpeting the rise in cases in recent days. Delighting in it, even.
Really, people have been delighting in it?
Seems that way to me.
Some examples might be useful. It might be they are enjoying schadenfreude, rather than taking delight in the suffering of others.
Comments
You have expenses and clear rules on what expenses are allowable and what aren't. Set these out publicly.
It's what many businesses do. My employers all had an expenses policy and it really was not difficult to read and follow the policy. Amazingly enough, the policies covered issues such as late night working etc.
This is not hard. It is just that the will is not there and there is a sense of entitlement among far too many MPs that expenses are not the repayment of costs borne for the purposes of their work but a means to have a pretty luxurious lifestyle.
I have already said I have no idea how I will vote in 24 but what is more important is decency and honesty and the conservative party to obtain the voters approval have to address this dreadful sleaze
You would make a better contribution if you join the critics, after all you claim to be a Christian and I doubt this is part of Christian values
The UK now has the lowest rate of infection in Western Europe and is the only country where it is below 1.
https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457648828258177025?s=21
Click on tweet for graphic
Perhaps imprecisely expressed - he means R rate.
Great to see Britain leading the way on booster shots. With the bulk of the exit wave behind us, we're going into winter in a strong position.
https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1457657172419125248?s=21
Click on tweet for graphic
1. Your thoughts on the egregious corruption in your party?
2. You accept the party has moved away from "core principles"
3. What are you for if not for application of these principles? What is the point in keeping Labour out if you implement Labour policies and principles?
Genuinely curious. The Conservative Party used to be something I could disagree with politically but respect as fundamentally decent. Principles and values may not always have been upheld but the intention was there to do so, with apology and correction when things strayed too far.
Where are your values now? Your principles? What is the point in being a politician if you stand for nothing?
HYUFD is the Nicholas Pavlovich Romanov of this site.
This is one more recent Expenses Schema with some background, which I am tolerably happy with, as it is recognisably similar to what ordinary people have. Not quite what I argued for in 2010/11, but OK.
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9148/CBP-9148.pdf
My big fears are secrecy, giving in to the "all motivation is by money" lobby we have to some extent on PB, and regulatory capture, which I think will horribly damage politics.
On MPs earning extra, categories I am aware of:
Ministers from PM down to Parl. Under-Sec of State, including eg whips by the look of it. Currently a few over 100.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/government-ministers
Similar but less extensive on the Opposition side. How extensive? What about 2nd, 3rd etc Opposition Parties. Does Ed Davey or Ian Blackford benefit?
Office Holders - Select Committee Chairs as you say, but also Speaker, Dep Speakers, whips and others. I am not sure what else. What about Chris Bryant's committee, for example? I think "relevant" Committee Chairs and Members of the "Panel" (not sure how it works) receive around 15k-20k extra.
At a punt I would put it at 1/5 to 1/3 of the Commons, which is 130-215 individuals receiving extra salary. Which may just meet "hundreds", or I may have exaggerated a little.
I guess one could argue that the main hole is backbench seniority.
I'd love to see a current exhaustive list.
I attended my first campaign rally in 1992 for Major in rural Gravesham when he was on his soapbox and have been involved campaigning for the Conservatives in some capacity in every general election since
It is the exact opposite. There are so many Good People in politics who get overshadowed by the smaller numbers of liars, crooks and charlatans. The problem is that the latter group are now in government trying to portray everyone as the reality of them - traitors, the enemy of the people, all the same.
We either have a basic understanding of right and wrong or we don't. Taking money from people to line your own pockets is wrong. Pointing this out when it is being called out is not "herd behaviour".
In normal times the catastrophic procurement we have seen would have been a career-ending scandal. Vast contracts. Awarded without tender not to the companies with a track record in the field but often to new companies set up by people with no experience via a "VIP fast-track" so outrageous that its very existence had to be denied.
A company awarded a transport contract worth double its size. Then another to source the PPE it is to transport. Paying hugely over the odds for junk. Which it then wins another contract worth a million a day to store the stuff it was paid to source and transport. At the very least this has to be investigated so that such disasters can be avoided in future. Regardless of any questions of propriety.
John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
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27m
All eyes on
@RedfieldWilton
poll at 5pm today
However as I have said before I would prefer an English parliament too so if England elects a majority of Conservative MPs and gets a Labour PM (supported by the SNP) it can still determine much of its own domestic policy much as Scotland and Wales have their own parliaments for much of their domestic policy if they have a Conservative PM they did not vote for as now
Kaboom.
The second is to have a broad leadership which exudes competence and clarity, and beyond doubt has better policies on offer on the subjects that are big for the key voters.
These are things like post-Brexit strategy and vision, housing, transport, education, jobs, debt, deficit, interest rates, inflation, tax, NHS, social care, defence, the union, migration, CO2, free speech, taming the extremes of left and right, terrorism and so on.
Because they are so behind in this they still have little chance of winning, and only a even chance of leading the next government. They should be 20 points ahead.
Where are the killer three word slogans?
@keiranpedley
NEW
@IpsosMORI
/ Evening Standard. Labour lead by one.
LAB: 36% (-)
CON: 35% (-4)
GRN: 11% (+5)
LDEM: 9% (-)
Fieldwork dates: 29 Oct to Nov 4 (before Commons vote on Paterson / Standards last week)
Never heard it called that before.
Con 35 (-4)
Labour 36 (-)
Greens 11 (+6)
Lib Dems 9 (-)
Just one poll and within margin of error etc
h/t @nicholascecil/ @IpsosMORI
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-loses-poll-lead-ipsos-mori-sleaze-scandal-b964945.html
Interesting point - the field work on this poll was Oct 29 - Nov 4 so much of it was *before* Paterson row dominated headlines (debate was Nov 3, U-turn Nov 4). Next one should be fascinating...
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
4m
Are we "out of the woods yet"?
a) Is there any possibility of the NHS being swamped by people with Covid? - No.
b) Is the covid epidemic over (ie is it no longer possible for covid cases to grow exponentially for an extended period)? Yes.
So yes, we're out of the woods.
If you are a Majorite Tory why are you condoning Borisite blue Labour policies that you have opposed all this time? What is the point in you keeping Labour out only to do what Labour do? If you are a Majorite Tory why condone outrageous corruption?
That moment of absolute clarity when you realise the party is beneath you and you walk away is golden. I hope you enjoy it - and the personal cleansing of your own morality - as much as I did.
For example, every MP needs to staff an office, so why not have a central pool of Parliamentary staff, and/or local council staff, to employ people for this purpose? Then you remove a burden of administration from MPs, and the temptation to push the limits of what is acceptable in terms of spending taxpayers money on employing relatives or friends.
Similarly, every MP a certain distance from London will require accommodation in London, so rather than provide expenses that help MPs to make a profit from the property market, simply buy sufficient flats for the use of MPs.
You could issue MPs with a free rail travel pass (for standard class), and then if they want to upgrade to First they can pay for that, and they don't need to deal with the overhead of claiming for expenses.
On pay it's tempting to be idealistic and want MPs not to be motivated by the MPs salary, so not to pay them, but then they will end up being paid, or sponsored, by others. Trade Unions, the central party, etc, and that payment will clearly be conditional to some extent. If the voters don't pay their MPs they will find their MPs serving a different paymaster.
The problem is, how do we do it without repeating the Scotland exercise of spending billions on more politicians, their hangers-on and fancy buildings to house them all?
https://www.politics.co.uk/reference/shadow-cabinet/
Keir is sticking to this and needs to have his front bench team hammering it in every interview. We are where we are. The EU is the past, our trading relationship the future. We need to Make Brexit Work to deliver the hope that people have for our future however they voted.
At the moment too much of the message is "Brexit doesn't work and you are stupid". Change it to "Brexit doesn't work, but it could" and its a mirror held up to Tory failure to deliver. More so if we embark on a trade war.
I have campaigned for Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, Cameron, May and Boris (and briefly met Thatcher once at a reception)
@alexwickham
·
1h
Other than the £400,000 Geoffrey Cox is trousering as a consultant, his register of interests suggests he is doing up to 80 hours a month on outside work. Which means nearly 2 weeks each month he isn’t working as an MP. Sounds like he’s preparing for a by-election
There's a type of conservative/green person out there who is interested in the local environment, doesn't want big infrastructure development near their village, etc, who would happily migrate between blue and green depending on circumstance.
I reckon a good 1 or 2 pp of that Green 11% could be more likely to go Conservative than anywhere else.
That would also decrease regional resentment of London
It isn't just the corruption its the handling of the corruption. The unforced errors pouring out of Downing Street. The idiocy of lecturing us all on the environment then having a private jet / supercharged RR trip to the Garrick to eat Peasant with climate change deniers who persuade you to go after the commissioner.
The absurd whipping operation forcing Tory MPs to do something they know is wrong because if they don't their town has had it. And then reversing course almost immediately. Insisting it has nothing to do with the PM when everyone can see that it does. The storm in a teacup comments. The "he'll watch on TV comments".
Yes there is corruption over peerages and PPE contracts and planning and the Downing Street Flat refurb. And they got away with all of them individually so far. But pile them altogether and make both the public and your own MPs enraged and its hard to pretend it isn't an issue.
If - and it remains an if - this story retains its current legs. And we start seeing the local anger in Tory seats building. With increasing polls showing all the metrics going south. The idea that Boris / Beaker / Clown / Liar isn't called out for all that isn't so outrageous. People have been removed for less.
Certainty to vote is very high among Labour voters and very low among Tory voters, which is particularly striking given the age difference, and many Tory voters are also saying they don't know who they will vote for.
You'd expect a lot of those saying don't know/might not bother will end up voting Tory, and Labour turnout often disappoints.
For all that it's tempting to say the pandemic makes this an unusual time, that looks like a typical mid-term pattern in the polling.
2031: El Caudillo? Pah, I spit on his lily livered liberalism and weakness in not executing all of his opponents.
Like a football team in other words.
5..4..3..2..
Wonder how much longer that will take, across the UK as a whole?
I do think there's an element of people saying whatever to pollsters when there's not actually an election looming. Lots of people will say Green and not actually vote for them, I think that much is uncontroversial. I just think some of those are Cons.
https://twitter.com/pippacrerar/status/1457660230645555201?s=21
Is your membership and support for the Conservative Party worth anything more than "my team whatever they do"? Its just that you make all these moralistic principled judgements on other people whilst displaying that you have none of your own...
Reason and science (I think) says establish a permanent vaccination strategy nationwide, as with flu, and get on with life using your common sense.
Group behaviour at the moment tends to be too cautious, or too reckless.
So the Tory-to-Green switchers are there, but outnumbered almost 10-1 by those from Labour and Lib Dems.
Funny how he can get back to London on time if it's for dinner with old pals at a gentlemens club, but not to face MPs on the scandals engulfing his party
The obvious attack is that this is not working. We need people for quite a few different industries and the government refuses to engage. What is the point of controlling migration if you don't actually control it? Unless the work "control" means "stop"?
Look at those Eastern European countries....
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/02/briefing/britain-covid-cases-restrictions.html
Britain offers a warning of what happens when a country ignores Covid.
Is it inside a large fridge?
In any case under Macmillan we had a Conservative government with large numbers of nationalised industries and a top rate of income tax significantly higher than it is now but it was still more conservative than Labour were
If you believe the chief executive of the NHS that NYT article is spot on still. Must be wonderful to be so unaccountable you can make such fantastical lies with impunity. 14x last year apparently for number in hospital, which given we were over 10k this time last year suggests there are currently more covid patients admitted than there are beds - only out by a factor of 20x.
So I don't think "look at all those cases" will happen.
I do think "look you changed your narrative" may happen.
The other thing that will happen is that Belgium and Portugal will be left of graphs, like the one I just posted.
Fix those 2 issues and for 90% of the population immigration is no longer a problem
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=overview&areaName=United Kingdom