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The change in Johnson’s approval rating region by region – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 7 in General
imageThe change in Johnson’s approval rating region by region – politicalbetting.com

As we saw last night the latest Opinium poll for the Observer has Johnson dropping to his worst net approval ratings ever since becoming PM.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,188
    Still think a Tory majority is the best bet out there. Hopefully polling like this will make it even better.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,927
    2nd like Labour, still…
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,741
    edited November 7
    3rd.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,188
    MattW said:

    1st?

    *buffs nails and looks insouciant.*

    Way too slow.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,177
    I’m assuming that BJ’s ratings are at least staying consistent in Scotland?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,080
    edited November 7
    Subsample KLAXON!!!

    More seriously, I'm not sure how useful these figures are without adding the comparable ones for Starmer. If his approval ratings have increased in proportion that's an issue for Johnson, but if not...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,477
    edited November 7
    Fifth. Rate like Boris.

    Edit/ I see he's not even that.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,406
    Interesting charts, confirming that the Midlands is where the next election will be fought and won.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,741
    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    1st?

    *buffs nails and looks insouciant.*

    Way too slow.
    I allege that my updated quote has been misquoted.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,080

    I’m assuming that BJ’s ratings are at least staying consistent in Scotland?

    They've gone from 'despise' to 'destest'
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,924
    @RochdalePioneers FPT

    Right, let me clarify your response.

    You would mandate mask wearing in England now. Okay. You would introduce a law that makes it illegal to visit pubs, bars, theatres, clubs and shops without a mask. That’s a very significant imposition.

    Would you then also mandate vaccination in England from today?
  • FPT.

    isam said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    This week has been a shameful episode by a few at the top of the party and it would not surprise me that many good and hard working conservatives are exasperated and angry

    They have it in their own hands to take action, either to demand Boris listens to them, or take the necessary steps to replace him

    Most PMs would give their eye teeth to still be ahead, even if only by 1%, midterm as Boris is.

    Blair is the only recent PM who polled better than Boris is midterm
    You cannot see the damage this has caused to the party and trot out every excuse that I am not convinced even you believe
    If it was really causing damage to the party, Starmer Labour would be 10% ahead midterm, not 1% behind!
    But it's relative innit? How far behind was Starmer a week ago?
    The point I’d take from it is that, when every headline in the papers is slaughtering the Tories all week, they’re 1-3 points ahead and, when things are going well for them, they’re 8-10 points ahead.

    Doesn’t anyone else see things in this way? I can’t get my head around the enthusiasm to treat every poll outside the context of the ebb and flow of an electoral cycle

    It’s like a golfer hitting his first tee shot into the water and shooting a double bogey - it doesn’t mean he’s going to card 36 over par
    I agree with you that the underlying position is that the Tories are 4-5 points ahead in an average week, and have been for ages. But I think the concept of "mid-term" with its sibling "swingback" is dated here. The real position is that there's 35% who will vote Tory no matter what, and 5-10% who will consider it on a good day. There's 30% who vote Labour no matter what (remember that Corbyn got over 32% even in 2019), but there's also 15% or so who lean LD or Green, and most of them - especially the Greens - are implacably hostile to the Tories and can't wait to screw them. I don't see where the swingback for the Tories will come from, and there is plenty of evidence that a proportion of voters are tactically-minded in marginals. "Hooray, we're 1% ahead and that's even before swingback" is complacency, and that rarely ends well.
    I don't think the "will always vote Tory and will always support them in opinion polls" share of the population is any higher than the equivalent for Labour (I estimate both at around 25%).

    The point with polls over the last couple of weeks is that there's been a big swing from Con to DK. That gives Labour an opportunity, sure, but the default position is that if nothing changes it is likely to swing back.
  • Interesting charts, confirming that the Midlands is where the next election will be fought and won.

    Don't ignore the south. Convert a couple of scores of seats back to the LibDems and that puts a serious hole in the Tory total.
  • @RochdalePioneers FPT

    Right, let me clarify your response.

    You would mandate mask wearing in England now. Okay. You would introduce a law that makes it illegal to visit pubs, bars, theatres, clubs and shops without a mask. That’s a very significant imposition.

    Would you then also mandate vaccination in England from today?

    ?

    Where did I say ban visiting pubs etc? They aren't banned up here or in Germany or in the rest of the world that hasn't been as daft as England in dropping the requirement to wear masks. England - like the rest of the developed world - should have maintained a mask mandate.

    You didn't. you can't put the genie back in the bottle. Politically any new restrictions will be difficult because so many people down there think its all over. Hence the need for Plan B, Plan C, "Jabbed or Christmas gets it" etc etc

    You keep asking what I think. I don't think. But I listen to what Whitty, Vallance, Van-Tam, Taylor etc think. I know nothing on this subject, I am not a doctor or a virologist or someone qualified to disagree with them. Unlike you and many on here apparently.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,473
    DavidL said:

    Still think a Tory majority is the best bet out there. Hopefully polling like this will make it even better.

    keep those fingers crossed David, beginning to look like even a donkey will beat this bunch of absolute crooks and shysters.
    ydoethur said:

    I’m assuming that BJ’s ratings are at least staying consistent in Scotland?

    They've gone from 'despise' to 'destest'
    That does not even begin to describe it
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142

    FPT.

    isam said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    This week has been a shameful episode by a few at the top of the party and it would not surprise me that many good and hard working conservatives are exasperated and angry

    They have it in their own hands to take action, either to demand Boris listens to them, or take the necessary steps to replace him

    Most PMs would give their eye teeth to still be ahead, even if only by 1%, midterm as Boris is.

    Blair is the only recent PM who polled better than Boris is midterm
    You cannot see the damage this has caused to the party and trot out every excuse that I am not convinced even you believe
    If it was really causing damage to the party, Starmer Labour would be 10% ahead midterm, not 1% behind!
    But it's relative innit? How far behind was Starmer a week ago?
    The point I’d take from it is that, when every headline in the papers is slaughtering the Tories all week, they’re 1-3 points ahead and, when things are going well for them, they’re 8-10 points ahead.

    Doesn’t anyone else see things in this way? I can’t get my head around the enthusiasm to treat every poll outside the context of the ebb and flow of an electoral cycle

    It’s like a golfer hitting his first tee shot into the water and shooting a double bogey - it doesn’t mean he’s going to card 36 over par
    I agree with you that the underlying position is that the Tories are 4-5 points ahead in an average week, and have been for ages. But I think the concept of "mid-term" with its sibling "swingback" is dated here. The real position is that there's 35% who will vote Tory no matter what, and 5-10% who will consider it on a good day. There's 30% who vote Labour no matter what (remember that Corbyn got over 32% even in 2019), but there's also 15% or so who lean LD or Green, and most of them - especially the Greens - are implacably hostile to the Tories and can't wait to screw them. I don't see where the swingback for the Tories will come from, and there is plenty of evidence that a proportion of voters are tactically-minded in marginals. "Hooray, we're 1% ahead and that's even before swingback" is complacency, and that rarely ends well.
    I don't think the "will always vote Tory and will always support them in opinion polls" share of the population is any higher than the equivalent for Labour (I estimate both at around 25%).

    The point with polls over the last couple of weeks is that there's been a big swing from Con to DK. That gives Labour an opportunity, sure, but the default position is that if nothing changes it is likely to swing back.
    Depends what you mean by "nothing changes". If Boris Johnson doesn't stop this ridiculous course he's on, could he bleed more votes away from the Conservatives? It would be foolish not to think that at least possible.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,893



    REFUK is the refuge of the angry. I expect a lot of people to not vote. Easy enough for a decent chunk of the extra 2.5m Tory votes in 2019 vs 2015 to stay at home. Voting REFUK is a protest, and you have to be really angry to go out to the polling station to deliver a protest.

    It's more like the home of the permanently bewildered and paranoid like Diane from Grimsby.

    https://twitter.com/NoContextFBUK/status/1455595813741150212
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,924

    @RochdalePioneers FPT

    Right, let me clarify your response.

    You would mandate mask wearing in England now. Okay. You would introduce a law that makes it illegal to visit pubs, bars, theatres, clubs and shops without a mask. That’s a very significant imposition.

    Would you then also mandate vaccination in England from today?

    ?

    Where did I say ban visiting pubs etc? They aren't banned up here or in Germany or in the rest of the world that hasn't been as daft as England in dropping the requirement to wear masks. England - like the rest of the developed world - should have maintained a mask mandate.

    You didn't. you can't put the genie back in the bottle. Politically any new restrictions will be difficult because so many people down there think its all over. Hence the need for Plan B, Plan C, "Jabbed or Christmas gets it" etc etc

    You keep asking what I think. I don't think. But I listen to what Whitty, Vallance, Van-Tam, Taylor etc think. I know nothing on this subject, I am not a doctor or a virologist or someone qualified to disagree with them. Unlike you and many on here apparently.
    No. Wrong again. I didn’t even suggest you would ban pubs. You said you would impose a mask mandate, which of course would include pubs.

    My question to you is would you also mandate vaccinations?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,884
    edited November 7

    Interesting charts, confirming that the Midlands is where the next election will be fought and won.

    That's only your belief. The Midlands is in fact in a snowglobe on Thor's desk and he is pondering giving it a right old shake up.

    Meanwhile in transport news, mask wearing on the train (national rail) up significantly since a couple of weeks ago.

    Interesting dynamic. No one all of a sudden put them on. They just arrived with them on.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,961

    I’m assuming that BJ’s ratings are at least staying consistent in Scotland?

    I didn't include it in the chart because the Scotland will be largely irrelevant in General Election terms. For the record Johnson was in deep trouble north of the border in May and that has got a lot worse.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743

    @RochdalePioneers FPT

    Right, let me clarify your response.

    You would mandate mask wearing in England now. Okay. You would introduce a law that makes it illegal to visit pubs, bars, theatres, clubs and shops without a mask. That’s a very significant imposition.

    Would you then also mandate vaccination in England from today?

    ?

    Where did I say ban visiting pubs etc? They aren't banned up here or in Germany or in the rest of the world that hasn't been as daft as England in dropping the requirement to wear masks. England - like the rest of the developed world - should have maintained a mask mandate.

    You didn't. you can't put the genie back in the bottle. Politically any new restrictions will be difficult because so many people down there think its all over. Hence the need for Plan B, Plan C, "Jabbed or Christmas gets it" etc etc

    You keep asking what I think. I don't think. But I listen to what Whitty, Vallance, Van-Tam, Taylor etc think. I know nothing on this subject, I am not a doctor or a virologist or someone qualified to disagree with them. Unlike you and many on here apparently.
    No. Wrong again. I didn’t even suggest you would ban pubs. You said you would impose a mask mandate, which of course would include pubs.

    My question to you is would you also mandate vaccinations?
    No but I would insist on vaccination passports at all pubs and indoor venues to the point that most can’t be arsed to vaccinate people give up and get vaccinated (see for examples Italy where numbers shot up once that rule was announced).
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 4,768
    edited November 7

    FPT.

    isam said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    This week has been a shameful episode by a few at the top of the party and it would not surprise me that many good and hard working conservatives are exasperated and angry

    They have it in their own hands to take action, either to demand Boris listens to them, or take the necessary steps to replace him

    Most PMs would give their eye teeth to still be ahead, even if only by 1%, midterm as Boris is.

    Blair is the only recent PM who polled better than Boris is midterm
    You cannot see the damage this has caused to the party and trot out every excuse that I am not convinced even you believe
    If it was really causing damage to the party, Starmer Labour would be 10% ahead midterm, not 1% behind!
    But it's relative innit? How far behind was Starmer a week ago?
    The point I’d take from it is that, when every headline in the papers is slaughtering the Tories all week, they’re 1-3 points ahead and, when things are going well for them, they’re 8-10 points ahead.

    Doesn’t anyone else see things in this way? I can’t get my head around the enthusiasm to treat every poll outside the context of the ebb and flow of an electoral cycle

    It’s like a golfer hitting his first tee shot into the water and shooting a double bogey - it doesn’t mean he’s going to card 36 over par
    I agree with you that the underlying position is that the Tories are 4-5 points ahead in an average week, and have been for ages. But I think the concept of "mid-term" with its sibling "swingback" is dated here. The real position is that there's 35% who will vote Tory no matter what, and 5-10% who will consider it on a good day. There's 30% who vote Labour no matter what (remember that Corbyn got over 32% even in 2019), but there's also 15% or so who lean LD or Green, and most of them - especially the Greens - are implacably hostile to the Tories and can't wait to screw them. I don't see where the swingback for the Tories will come from, and there is plenty of evidence that a proportion of voters are tactically-minded in marginals. "Hooray, we're 1% ahead and that's even before swingback" is complacency, and that rarely ends well.
    I don't think the "will always vote Tory and will always support them in opinion polls" share of the population is any higher than the equivalent for Labour (I estimate both at around 25%).

    The point with polls over the last couple of weeks is that there's been a big swing from Con to DK. That gives Labour an opportunity, sure, but the default position is that if nothing changes it is likely to swing back.
    I think REFUK may end up being key as to whether that happens or not. They seem to be building up a word-of-mouth following on the popular right as the answer to the most current question of the reform of sleaze, in a very similar way to what UKIP did in the early 2010s, but on the question of immigration.
  • @RochdalePioneers FPT

    Right, let me clarify your response.

    You would mandate mask wearing in England now. Okay. You would introduce a law that makes it illegal to visit pubs, bars, theatres, clubs and shops without a mask. That’s a very significant imposition.

    Would you then also mandate vaccination in England from today?

    ?

    Where did I say ban visiting pubs etc? They aren't banned up here or in Germany or in the rest of the world that hasn't been as daft as England in dropping the requirement to wear masks. England - like the rest of the developed world - should have maintained a mask mandate.

    You didn't. you can't put the genie back in the bottle. Politically any new restrictions will be difficult because so many people down there think its all over. Hence the need for Plan B, Plan C, "Jabbed or Christmas gets it" etc etc

    You keep asking what I think. I don't think. But I listen to what Whitty, Vallance, Van-Tam, Taylor etc think. I know nothing on this subject, I am not a doctor or a virologist or someone qualified to disagree with them. Unlike you and many on here apparently.
    No. Wrong again. I didn’t even suggest you would ban pubs. You said you would impose a mask mandate, which of course would include pubs.

    My question to you is would you also mandate vaccinations?
    You know my position on this. I'm against vaccine passports so why would I be in favour of pinning people down to vaccinate them?

    So whats your point? Here and everywhere else you need to wear a mask indoors in public buildings. You take them off when sat eating or drinking. They remain open and thriving and with less infections which means more people available to work and go out spending money. A "significant imposition" that pretty much everywhere else manages without a fuss.

    Ultimately its down to who is the expert here. I am not. You apparently are. Perhaps the NHS should listen to you.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,961
    DavidL said:

    Still think a Tory majority is the best bet out there. Hopefully polling like this will make it even better.

    We never talk about the LDs but the Tories are going to struggle to hold many seats in Remain areas where the LDs are in second place.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,080
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    I’m assuming that BJ’s ratings are at least staying consistent in Scotland?

    They've gone from 'despise' to 'destest'
    That does not even begin to describe it

    I’m assuming that BJ’s ratings are at least staying consistent in Scotland?

    I didn't include it in the chart because the Scotland will be largely irrelevant in General Election terms. For the record Johnson was in deep trouble north of the border in May and that has got a lot worse.
    There seems to be agreement here...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,080

    @RochdalePioneers FPT

    Right, let me clarify your response.

    You would mandate mask wearing in England now. Okay. You would introduce a law that makes it illegal to visit pubs, bars, theatres, clubs and shops without a mask. That’s a very significant imposition.

    Would you then also mandate vaccination in England from today?

    ?

    Where did I say ban visiting pubs etc? They aren't banned up here or in Germany or in the rest of the world that hasn't been as daft as England in dropping the requirement to wear masks. England - like the rest of the developed world - should have maintained a mask mandate.

    You didn't. you can't put the genie back in the bottle. Politically any new restrictions will be difficult because so many people down there think its all over. Hence the need for Plan B, Plan C, "Jabbed or Christmas gets it" etc etc

    You keep asking what I think. I don't think. But I listen to what Whitty, Vallance, Van-Tam, Taylor etc think. I know nothing on this subject, I am not a doctor or a virologist or someone qualified to disagree with them. Unlike you and many on here apparently.
    No. Wrong again. I didn’t even suggest you would ban pubs. You said you would impose a mask mandate, which of course would include pubs.

    My question to you is would you also mandate vaccinations?
    You know my position on this. I'm against vaccine passports so why would I be in favour of pinning people down to vaccinate them?

    So whats your point? Here and everywhere else you need to wear a mask indoors in public buildings. You take them off when sat eating or drinking. They remain open and thriving and with less infections which means more people available to work and go out spending money. A "significant imposition" that pretty much everywhere else manages without a fuss.

    Ultimately its down to who is the expert here. I am not. You apparently are. Perhaps the NHS should listen to you.
    He couldn't possibly make more wrong suggestions than iSage.
  • eek said:

    @RochdalePioneers FPT

    Right, let me clarify your response.

    You would mandate mask wearing in England now. Okay. You would introduce a law that makes it illegal to visit pubs, bars, theatres, clubs and shops without a mask. That’s a very significant imposition.

    Would you then also mandate vaccination in England from today?

    ?

    Where did I say ban visiting pubs etc? They aren't banned up here or in Germany or in the rest of the world that hasn't been as daft as England in dropping the requirement to wear masks. England - like the rest of the developed world - should have maintained a mask mandate.

    You didn't. you can't put the genie back in the bottle. Politically any new restrictions will be difficult because so many people down there think its all over. Hence the need for Plan B, Plan C, "Jabbed or Christmas gets it" etc etc

    You keep asking what I think. I don't think. But I listen to what Whitty, Vallance, Van-Tam, Taylor etc think. I know nothing on this subject, I am not a doctor or a virologist or someone qualified to disagree with them. Unlike you and many on here apparently.
    No. Wrong again. I didn’t even suggest you would ban pubs. You said you would impose a mask mandate, which of course would include pubs.

    My question to you is would you also mandate vaccinations?
    No but I would insist on vaccination passports at all pubs and indoor venues to the point that most can’t be arsed to vaccinate people give up and get vaccinated (see for examples Italy where numbers shot up once that rule was announced).
    I disagree with government-imposed "your papers please" rules, but don't have an issue with individual establishments having their own policies about how to keep guests and staff safe.

    I've been to several big industry events home and abroad where you show your vaccination status or you don't get in. The problem is that the people really refusing to get jabbed are the conspiracy theorists and nutjobs more than they are the lazy.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,884
    edited November 7
    As for the boxing last night, I know not a big PB thing, I was disappointed at Plant. Having berated everyone for being in awe of Canelo he spent virtually the entire time seemingly happy that he hadn't been sparked out. Until he was. He was evidently surprised at the power of Canelo's shots once being hit by them.

    He wasn't busy enough, didn't use the jab to create openings, but as an end in itself and generally I don't think landed more than half a dozen right crosses.

    And Canelo marches on. Who next? Who knows. Triple G is pushing 40 and has a tricky fight to come in Japan; Charlo if he moves up; Benavidez perhaps.

    Everyone will be queuing up for a piece of the action but not entirely sure who'll get the call up.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,924

    @RochdalePioneers FPT

    Right, let me clarify your response.

    You would mandate mask wearing in England now. Okay. You would introduce a law that makes it illegal to visit pubs, bars, theatres, clubs and shops without a mask. That’s a very significant imposition.

    Would you then also mandate vaccination in England from today?

    ?

    Where did I say ban visiting pubs etc? They aren't banned up here or in Germany or in the rest of the world that hasn't been as daft as England in dropping the requirement to wear masks. England - like the rest of the developed world - should have maintained a mask mandate.

    You didn't. you can't put the genie back in the bottle. Politically any new restrictions will be difficult because so many people down there think its all over. Hence the need for Plan B, Plan C, "Jabbed or Christmas gets it" etc etc

    You keep asking what I think. I don't think. But I listen to what Whitty, Vallance, Van-Tam, Taylor etc think. I know nothing on this subject, I am not a doctor or a virologist or someone qualified to disagree with them. Unlike you and many on here apparently.
    No. Wrong again. I didn’t even suggest you would ban pubs. You said you would impose a mask mandate, which of course would include pubs.

    My question to you is would you also mandate vaccinations?
    You know my position on this. I'm against vaccine passports so why would I be in favour of pinning people down to vaccinate them?

    So whats your point? Here and everywhere else you need to wear a mask indoors in public buildings. You take them off when sat eating or drinking. They remain open and thriving and with less infections which means more people available to work and go out spending money. A "significant imposition" that pretty much everywhere else manages without a fuss.

    Ultimately its down to who is the expert here. I am not. You apparently are. Perhaps the NHS should listen to you.
    I don’t claim to be an expert, and never have. My view is that we should retain the status quo. I’ve been clear about that. I would mandate neither vaccinations nor masks, although I would advocate a stronger public campaign on vaccinations to whittle down the refuseniks.

    I find your position absolutely irrational. You would mandate masks - which are a daily imposition, affect 100% of the population and have only a moderate impact. But you would not mandate vaccinations, which are a minor inconvenience, affect just 5% of the population (the unvaxxed cohort) and have a huge impact. That is a bizarre position in my view. Deeply irrational.
  • @RochdalePioneers FPT

    Right, let me clarify your response.

    You would mandate mask wearing in England now. Okay. You would introduce a law that makes it illegal to visit pubs, bars, theatres, clubs and shops without a mask. That’s a very significant imposition.

    Would you then also mandate vaccination in England from today?

    ?

    Where did I say ban visiting pubs etc? They aren't banned up here or in Germany or in the rest of the world that hasn't been as daft as England in dropping the requirement to wear masks. England - like the rest of the developed world - should have maintained a mask mandate.

    You didn't. you can't put the genie back in the bottle. Politically any new restrictions will be difficult because so many people down there think its all over. Hence the need for Plan B, Plan C, "Jabbed or Christmas gets it" etc etc

    You keep asking what I think. I don't think. But I listen to what Whitty, Vallance, Van-Tam, Taylor etc think. I know nothing on this subject, I am not a doctor or a virologist or someone qualified to disagree with them. Unlike you and many on here apparently.
    You don't need to be an expert to look at the actual results in practice of the various interventions that have been tried - if you do you can easily see that the pharmaceutical interventions have had a much greater impact than the non-pharmaceutical interventions.

    Masks in particular have in practice had no discernable impact. I suspect this is because (1)a small but significant proportion of us are medically exempt; (2) the most popular masks have been the cloth ones which don't filter out that much aerosols even under ideal conditions (I've found studies ranging from claims of 10% to 37%) - and virtually nobody uses them properly anyway.

    There's a reason why the pandemic preparedness plan recommended against them. When the inevitable public enquiry comes it really needs to look at why the government was panicked into binning its plan.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,715
    TOPPING said:

    Interesting charts, confirming that the Midlands is where the next election will be fought and won.

    That's only your belief. The Midlands is in fact in a snowglobe on Thor's desk and he is pondering giving it a right old shake up.

    Meanwhile in transport news, mask wearing on the train (national rail) up significantly since a couple of weeks ago.

    Interesting dynamic. No one all of a sudden put them on. They just arrived with them on.
    I caught the train to work last week, and about half the adult population was wearing them. Luckily I wasn't in one of the carriages packed with sixth formers so no idea whether they were. I didn't: I briefly considered conforming but then remembered I had tested negative an hour previously.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,924
    eek said:

    @RochdalePioneers FPT

    Right, let me clarify your response.

    You would mandate mask wearing in England now. Okay. You would introduce a law that makes it illegal to visit pubs, bars, theatres, clubs and shops without a mask. That’s a very significant imposition.

    Would you then also mandate vaccination in England from today?

    ?

    Where did I say ban visiting pubs etc? They aren't banned up here or in Germany or in the rest of the world that hasn't been as daft as England in dropping the requirement to wear masks. England - like the rest of the developed world - should have maintained a mask mandate.

    You didn't. you can't put the genie back in the bottle. Politically any new restrictions will be difficult because so many people down there think its all over. Hence the need for Plan B, Plan C, "Jabbed or Christmas gets it" etc etc

    You keep asking what I think. I don't think. But I listen to what Whitty, Vallance, Van-Tam, Taylor etc think. I know nothing on this subject, I am not a doctor or a virologist or someone qualified to disagree with them. Unlike you and many on here apparently.
    No. Wrong again. I didn’t even suggest you would ban pubs. You said you would impose a mask mandate, which of course would include pubs.

    My question to you is would you also mandate vaccinations?
    No but I would insist on vaccination passports at all pubs and indoor venues to the point that most can’t be arsed to vaccinate people give up and get vaccinated (see for examples Italy where numbers shot up once that rule was announced).
    Fair enough. I disagree but your stance is highly rational. Unlike that of the irrational Rochdale.
  • Farooq said:

    FPT.

    isam said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    This week has been a shameful episode by a few at the top of the party and it would not surprise me that many good and hard working conservatives are exasperated and angry

    They have it in their own hands to take action, either to demand Boris listens to them, or take the necessary steps to replace him

    Most PMs would give their eye teeth to still be ahead, even if only by 1%, midterm as Boris is.

    Blair is the only recent PM who polled better than Boris is midterm
    You cannot see the damage this has caused to the party and trot out every excuse that I am not convinced even you believe
    If it was really causing damage to the party, Starmer Labour would be 10% ahead midterm, not 1% behind!
    But it's relative innit? How far behind was Starmer a week ago?
    The point I’d take from it is that, when every headline in the papers is slaughtering the Tories all week, they’re 1-3 points ahead and, when things are going well for them, they’re 8-10 points ahead.

    Doesn’t anyone else see things in this way? I can’t get my head around the enthusiasm to treat every poll outside the context of the ebb and flow of an electoral cycle

    It’s like a golfer hitting his first tee shot into the water and shooting a double bogey - it doesn’t mean he’s going to card 36 over par
    I agree with you that the underlying position is that the Tories are 4-5 points ahead in an average week, and have been for ages. But I think the concept of "mid-term" with its sibling "swingback" is dated here. The real position is that there's 35% who will vote Tory no matter what, and 5-10% who will consider it on a good day. There's 30% who vote Labour no matter what (remember that Corbyn got over 32% even in 2019), but there's also 15% or so who lean LD or Green, and most of them - especially the Greens - are implacably hostile to the Tories and can't wait to screw them. I don't see where the swingback for the Tories will come from, and there is plenty of evidence that a proportion of voters are tactically-minded in marginals. "Hooray, we're 1% ahead and that's even before swingback" is complacency, and that rarely ends well.
    I don't think the "will always vote Tory and will always support them in opinion polls" share of the population is any higher than the equivalent for Labour (I estimate both at around 25%).

    The point with polls over the last couple of weeks is that there's been a big swing from Con to DK. That gives Labour an opportunity, sure, but the default position is that if nothing changes it is likely to swing back.
    Depends what you mean by "nothing changes". If Boris Johnson doesn't stop this ridiculous course he's on, could he bleed more votes away from the Conservatives? It would be foolish not to think that at least possible.
    I mean, if Labour does nothing to take advantage.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Boy, are black people (in London, for example) disproportionately likely to carry knives?

    That sort of information is vital to providing context for any accusations of racism.

    No no no, remember that it’s now only outcomes that are important - so it’s irrelevant whether young black men are more likely to be drug dealers or knife carriers, and it’s racist for the police to not spend equal time searching old white women when looking for drugs and weapons.

    More seriously, accusations that police are racist have been a problem for decades, and sadly a whole bunch of genuine issues have been identified. Problems in London are definitely not going away, until there’s a wholesale clearout of the top ranks at the Met.
    Policing needs to be by consent, and this applies strongly to stop and search. Nobody is suggesting that stop and search should be 'equal opportunities'; obviously the police are most likely to stop young people, especially those out and about on the streets.

    If young black men are roughly 10 times more likely to be stopped and searched than their white equivalents, there would have to be good reason for it. And it is up to the police to demonstrate that good reason through providing data that shows not just who was stopped, but if anything was found. Their reluctance to provide such data is disappointing. Personally, I suspect socio-economic status is in there as well as race, but that data is harder to collect.

    So to return to policing by consent. If young black men feel they are being picked on by the police, which they do, that leads to distrust. And such distrust was a key catalyst for the inner-city riots of the 1980s. For the police to be trusted, they have to be open and transparent with the evidence behind their decisions. But they aren't.
    Agreed, policing has to be by consent, and in many areas there is distrust of the police.

    My guess as to the data, is that it’s incomplete as you suggest (for example, by collating data on race, but not socio-economic class nor precise location), and as such could be easily be manipulated by people wishing to advance a narrative of the police being racist.
    Yes, but equally the data could be manipulated by people wishing to advance a narrative of the police not being racist.

    Just an idle thought. If stop and search were used to target rich young boys (and girls) who work in the City, what do you think the outcome would be? I reckon a spike in charges for possession of cocaine.
    I reckon a few MPs are not averse to carrying a few grams of charlie. You know which ones.
  • @RochdalePioneers FPT

    Right, let me clarify your response.

    You would mandate mask wearing in England now. Okay. You would introduce a law that makes it illegal to visit pubs, bars, theatres, clubs and shops without a mask. That’s a very significant imposition.

    Would you then also mandate vaccination in England from today?

    ?

    Where did I say ban visiting pubs etc? They aren't banned up here or in Germany or in the rest of the world that hasn't been as daft as England in dropping the requirement to wear masks. England - like the rest of the developed world - should have maintained a mask mandate.

    You didn't. you can't put the genie back in the bottle. Politically any new restrictions will be difficult because so many people down there think its all over. Hence the need for Plan B, Plan C, "Jabbed or Christmas gets it" etc etc

    You keep asking what I think. I don't think. But I listen to what Whitty, Vallance, Van-Tam, Taylor etc think. I know nothing on this subject, I am not a doctor or a virologist or someone qualified to disagree with them. Unlike you and many on here apparently.
    No. Wrong again. I didn’t even suggest you would ban pubs. You said you would impose a mask mandate, which of course would include pubs.

    My question to you is would you also mandate vaccinations?
    You know my position on this. I'm against vaccine passports so why would I be in favour of pinning people down to vaccinate them?
    Because vaccinations actually work.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,188

    DavidL said:

    Still think a Tory majority is the best bet out there. Hopefully polling like this will make it even better.

    We never talk about the LDs but the Tories are going to struggle to hold many seats in Remain areas where the LDs are in second place.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
    Why should they struggle to hold those seats in 2024 when they didn't in 2019? I see no sign of a Lib Dem recovery and think it is unlikely under Davey's leadership. I do agree with @OnlyLivingBoy that the key area next time is going to be the midlands and it is interesting that the swings against Boris seem highest there.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,477
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Still think a Tory majority is the best bet out there. Hopefully polling like this will make it even better.

    We never talk about the LDs but the Tories are going to struggle to hold many seats in Remain areas where the LDs are in second place.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
    Why should they struggle to hold those seats in 2024 when they didn't in 2019? I see no sign of a Lib Dem recovery and think it is unlikely under Davey's leadership. I do agree with @OnlyLivingBoy that the key area next time is going to be the midlands and it is interesting that the swings against Boris seem highest there.
    FWIW the recent local by-election results in the south have seen some good LD performances
  • I’m assuming that BJ’s ratings are at least staying consistent in Scotland?

    I didn't include it in the chart because the Scotland will be largely irrelevant in General Election terms. For the record Johnson was in deep trouble north of the border in May and that has got a lot worse.
    This is true directly but not indirectly. If the SNP continue to dominate Scotland and a hung parliament looks possible, the Tories can go right back to the 2015 campaign line.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    edited November 7
    Dont think many Tories go straight to Labour. Dont know is highly likely to be correct. If you are out canvassing and you start to hear don't know or won't say in known Tory wards then you know the Tories are in trouble.

    The Tories have to get rid of Boris he will lead them over the cliff.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,177
    Golly, Jess out lyingTorybastard-ing Angela.




  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,461
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Still think a Tory majority is the best bet out there. Hopefully polling like this will make it even better.

    We never talk about the LDs but the Tories are going to struggle to hold many seats in Remain areas where the LDs are in second place.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
    Why should they struggle to hold those seats in 2024 when they didn't in 2019? I see no sign of a Lib Dem recovery and think it is unlikely under Davey's leadership. I do agree with @OnlyLivingBoy that the key area next time is going to be the midlands and it is interesting that the swings against Boris seem highest there.
    I wonder how far Johnson can push "decent" Southern Tories before they just sit on their hands next time in large numbers. His government is beginning to stink of incompetence and sleaze.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,782
    The LDs have a pretty good chance of winning North Shropshire IMO. I can't see it being a Labour win, even though they were in second place last time.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654

    eek said:

    @RochdalePioneers FPT

    Right, let me clarify your response.

    You would mandate mask wearing in England now. Okay. You would introduce a law that makes it illegal to visit pubs, bars, theatres, clubs and shops without a mask. That’s a very significant imposition.

    Would you then also mandate vaccination in England from today?

    ?

    Where did I say ban visiting pubs etc? They aren't banned up here or in Germany or in the rest of the world that hasn't been as daft as England in dropping the requirement to wear masks. England - like the rest of the developed world - should have maintained a mask mandate.

    You didn't. you can't put the genie back in the bottle. Politically any new restrictions will be difficult because so many people down there think its all over. Hence the need for Plan B, Plan C, "Jabbed or Christmas gets it" etc etc

    You keep asking what I think. I don't think. But I listen to what Whitty, Vallance, Van-Tam, Taylor etc think. I know nothing on this subject, I am not a doctor or a virologist or someone qualified to disagree with them. Unlike you and many on here apparently.
    No. Wrong again. I didn’t even suggest you would ban pubs. You said you would impose a mask mandate, which of course would include pubs.

    My question to you is would you also mandate vaccinations?
    No but I would insist on vaccination passports at all pubs and indoor venues to the point that most can’t be arsed to vaccinate people give up and get vaccinated (see for examples Italy where numbers shot up once that rule was announced).
    Fair enough. I disagree but your stance is highly rational. Unlike that of the irrational Rochdale.
    Careful now, irrational, cynical, bile, these are all views about people tgat get trotted out on here, granted a fair few are about me!
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Still think a Tory majority is the best bet out there. Hopefully polling like this will make it even better.

    We never talk about the LDs but the Tories are going to struggle to hold many seats in Remain areas where the LDs are in second place.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
    Why should they struggle to hold those seats in 2024 when they didn't in 2019? I see no sign of a Lib Dem recovery and think it is unlikely under Davey's leadership. I do agree with @OnlyLivingBoy that the key area next time is going to be the midlands and it is interesting that the swings against Boris seem highest there.
    Several reasons.

    Firstly, Corbyn. The fear factor of Starmer just isn't the same.

    Secondly, Swinson overplayed her hand with revoke - it was a bridge too far for many remainers.

    Thirdly, as per the initial post, Johnson's approval ratings are well down.

    Fourthly, and although clearly a by-election swing won't be repeated, Chesham & Amersham was an extremely good Lib Dem result and suggests at a template.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,637

    Golly, Jess out lyingTorybastard-ing Angela.




    Paterson is dust. They would be better advised to push the angle that this was a pre-emptive strike to save Johnson. And the Opposition front bench were doing so well earlier in the week. Ah well, normal service is resumed.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,406
    Dura_Ace said:



    REFUK is the refuge of the angry. I expect a lot of people to not vote. Easy enough for a decent chunk of the extra 2.5m Tory votes in 2019 vs 2015 to stay at home. Voting REFUK is a protest, and you have to be really angry to go out to the polling station to deliver a protest.

    It's more like the home of the permanently bewildered and paranoid like Diane from Grimsby.

    https://twitter.com/NoContextFBUK/status/1455595813741150212
    If I recall correctly, Viz's Profanasaurus has an amusing entry that likens the Humber Bridge to the pereneum. Still, I'm sure that Grimsby is far nicer than that London.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,461
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    I don't know why people think this is so hard. Just ban second jobs. If it means MPs can't do shifts in A&E that's a shame. But there's a bigger issue at stake here.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,318
    That's some slide in Johnson's ratings and it's good to see. However it's hard to interpret. What I'd like to know is WHY the people who used to like him and now don't, don't.

    So if possible the pollsters should have a rider question for such people. Multiple choice would be best so it can be processed easily.

    What is it that's causing you to lose faith in Boris Johnson? Is it -

    (a) I find it hard to believe a word he says.
    (b) He seems to be clueless on most issues.
    (c) I get the impression he can't see beyond his own interests.
    (d) All of the above.
    (e) Something else. Please say in 10 words or less.

    Armed with this sort of data we could draw some firm conclusions that would really assist our betting.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,080
    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs have a pretty good chance of winning North Shropshire IMO. I can't see it being a Labour win, even though they were in second place last time.

    Er - really?

    That would be a 26% swing in a seat where they've never got over 25% of the vote.

    In a Leave seat. In a place where all the actual left-wingness is a Welsh-speaking area.

    The Richter scale will actually snap if they win this one.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,637

    Dont think many Tories go straight to Labour. Dont know is highly likely to be correct. If you are out canvassing and you start to hear don't know or won't say in known Tory wards then you know the Tories are in trouble.

    The Tories have to get rid of Boris he will lead them over the cliff.

    RedWall switchers went the other way, so if they ever decide to come back...
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142

    @RochdalePioneers FPT

    Right, let me clarify your response.

    You would mandate mask wearing in England now. Okay. You would introduce a law that makes it illegal to visit pubs, bars, theatres, clubs and shops without a mask. That’s a very significant imposition.

    Would you then also mandate vaccination in England from today?

    ?

    Where did I say ban visiting pubs etc? They aren't banned up here or in Germany or in the rest of the world that hasn't been as daft as England in dropping the requirement to wear masks. England - like the rest of the developed world - should have maintained a mask mandate.

    You didn't. you can't put the genie back in the bottle. Politically any new restrictions will be difficult because so many people down there think its all over. Hence the need for Plan B, Plan C, "Jabbed or Christmas gets it" etc etc

    You keep asking what I think. I don't think. But I listen to what Whitty, Vallance, Van-Tam, Taylor etc think. I know nothing on this subject, I am not a doctor or a virologist or someone qualified to disagree with them. Unlike you and many on here apparently.
    You don't need to be an expert to look at the actual results in practice of the various interventions that have been tried - if you do you can easily see that the pharmaceutical interventions have had a much greater impact than the non-pharmaceutical interventions.

    Masks in particular have in practice had no discernable impact. I suspect this is because (1)a small but significant proportion of us are medically exempt; (2) the most popular masks have been the cloth ones which don't filter out that much aerosols even under ideal conditions (I've found studies ranging from claims of 10% to 37%) - and virtually nobody uses them properly anyway.

    There's a reason why the pandemic preparedness plan recommended against them. When the inevitable public enquiry comes it really needs to look at why the government was panicked into binning its plan.
    Wrong. Masks do work, in practice. A number of studies have shown that they do.
    And if you stop to think about it, the medical exemption argument really doesn't work. The thing with a mask is it reduces transmission. That means even ONE sick person wearing a mask might be enough to save lives. If MOST sick people are wearing them, so much the better.

    Masks are like speed limits. It's true that lower speed limits lower deaths of pedestrians. If 5% of people drive at 50 past a school, then that increases the risk, but it's better than 100% of people doing it. The severity and frequency of cases are reduced by adherence to the measures.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,461

    Golly, Jess out lyingTorybastard-ing Angela.




    Paterson is dust. They would be better advised to push the angle that this was a pre-emptive strike to save Johnson. And the Opposition front bench were doing so well earlier in the week. Ah well, normal service is resumed.
    They need to move quickly on to the covid contracts for mates, which seems closely related judging by Observer front page.

    Let slip the dogs of war.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,637

    Golly, Jess out lyingTorybastard-ing Angela.




    Paterson is dust. They would be better advised to push the angle that this was a pre-emptive strike to save Johnson. And the Opposition front bench were doing so well earlier in the week. Ah well, normal service is resumed.
    They need to move quickly on to the covid contracts for mates, which seems closely related judging by Observer front page.

    Let slip the dogs of war.
    Indeed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861

    @RochdalePioneers FPT

    Right, let me clarify your response.

    You would mandate mask wearing in England now. Okay. You would introduce a law that makes it illegal to visit pubs, bars, theatres, clubs and shops without a mask. That’s a very significant imposition.

    Would you then also mandate vaccination in England from today?

    ?

    Where did I say ban visiting pubs etc? They aren't banned up here or in Germany or in the rest of the world that hasn't been as daft as England in dropping the requirement to wear masks. England - like the rest of the developed world - should have maintained a mask mandate.

    You didn't. you can't put the genie back in the bottle. Politically any new restrictions will be difficult because so many people down there think its all over. Hence the need for Plan B, Plan C, "Jabbed or Christmas gets it" etc etc

    You keep asking what I think. I don't think. But I listen to what Whitty, Vallance, Van-Tam, Taylor etc think. I know nothing on this subject, I am not a doctor or a virologist or someone qualified to disagree with them. Unlike you and many on here apparently.
    Jesus Christ, Jonathan Van-Tam, the "qualified" man you revere on this issue, famously said "masks are useless, my friend in Hong Kong told me" (this despite everyone in Hong Kong wearing a mask. Odd that)

    He's a fricking idiot. You are pathetically grovelling to establishment half-wits. Grow a spine

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xx4u3t4v8cA

    Go to 0:54

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,188

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Still think a Tory majority is the best bet out there. Hopefully polling like this will make it even better.

    We never talk about the LDs but the Tories are going to struggle to hold many seats in Remain areas where the LDs are in second place.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
    Why should they struggle to hold those seats in 2024 when they didn't in 2019? I see no sign of a Lib Dem recovery and think it is unlikely under Davey's leadership. I do agree with @OnlyLivingBoy that the key area next time is going to be the midlands and it is interesting that the swings against Boris seem highest there.
    I wonder how far Johnson can push "decent" Southern Tories before they just sit on their hands next time in large numbers. His government is beginning to stink of incompetence and sleaze.
    The budget seems to have been pretty well received. The economy is growing pretty fast, at least in the short term. We have full employment and rising wages. The boosters are being delivered at a good clip. The number of cases of the virus have clearly peaked and the government's policy of letting things rip over the summer is very likely to pay significant dividends in the winter. COP26 is looking like a solid piece of work if not quite a spectacular success.

    There are plenty of things on the other side of the balance sheet, many of them self-inflicted, but I think your assessment of the government is excessively partial.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,080
    Incidentally I am surprised nobody has mentioned this tragedy:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-59188753

    Sounds very bad indeed.

    There was actually a similar accident in this country about 15 years ago - but, it happened in a remote part of Herefordshire just outside Leominster so the only people nearby were the drivers, who were both killed - a nearby house was blown up but it was empty at the time.

    To think it could happen in a crowded city centre is - horrific.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,924
    Leon said:

    @RochdalePioneers FPT

    Right, let me clarify your response.

    You would mandate mask wearing in England now. Okay. You would introduce a law that makes it illegal to visit pubs, bars, theatres, clubs and shops without a mask. That’s a very significant imposition.

    Would you then also mandate vaccination in England from today?

    ?

    Where did I say ban visiting pubs etc? They aren't banned up here or in Germany or in the rest of the world that hasn't been as daft as England in dropping the requirement to wear masks. England - like the rest of the developed world - should have maintained a mask mandate.

    You didn't. you can't put the genie back in the bottle. Politically any new restrictions will be difficult because so many people down there think its all over. Hence the need for Plan B, Plan C, "Jabbed or Christmas gets it" etc etc

    You keep asking what I think. I don't think. But I listen to what Whitty, Vallance, Van-Tam, Taylor etc think. I know nothing on this subject, I am not a doctor or a virologist or someone qualified to disagree with them. Unlike you and many on here apparently.
    Jesus Christ, Jonathan Van-Tam, the "qualified" man you revere on this issue, famously said "masks are useless, my friend in Hong Kong told me" (this despite everyone in Hong Kong wearing a mask. Odd that)

    He's a fricking idiot. You are pathetically grovelling to establishment half-wits. Grow a spine

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xx4u3t4v8cA

    Go to 0:54

    And in case you didn’t notice, the entire premise of his response is wrong (yet again) as nowhere did I suggest that he was advocating the closure of pubs. I was talking about mask mandates, which really ought to have been clear from my question which cited, er, mask mandates.
  • pingping Posts: 1,409
    edited November 7
    I’m at a loss to explain what’s going on in the midlands. Anyone?
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743
    ping said:

    I’m at a loss to explain what’s going on in the midlands. Anyone?

    None of the promised money - threat to the eastern leg of HS2 (annoys the east midlands) and a spending review that gave most parts of the midlands absolutely nothing.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,924
    edited November 7
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs have a pretty good chance of winning North Shropshire IMO. I can't see it being a Labour win, even though they were in second place last time.

    Er - really?

    That would be a 26% swing in a seat where they've never got over 25% of the vote.

    In a Leave seat. In a place where all the actual left-wingness is a Welsh-speaking area.

    The Richter scale will actually snap if they win this one.
    There is a Welsh-speaking part of North Shropshire? That I did not know. PB really is a source of fascinating nuggets.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142

    eek said:

    @RochdalePioneers FPT

    Right, let me clarify your response.

    You would mandate mask wearing in England now. Okay. You would introduce a law that makes it illegal to visit pubs, bars, theatres, clubs and shops without a mask. That’s a very significant imposition.

    Would you then also mandate vaccination in England from today?

    ?

    Where did I say ban visiting pubs etc? They aren't banned up here or in Germany or in the rest of the world that hasn't been as daft as England in dropping the requirement to wear masks. England - like the rest of the developed world - should have maintained a mask mandate.

    You didn't. you can't put the genie back in the bottle. Politically any new restrictions will be difficult because so many people down there think its all over. Hence the need for Plan B, Plan C, "Jabbed or Christmas gets it" etc etc

    You keep asking what I think. I don't think. But I listen to what Whitty, Vallance, Van-Tam, Taylor etc think. I know nothing on this subject, I am not a doctor or a virologist or someone qualified to disagree with them. Unlike you and many on here apparently.
    No. Wrong again. I didn’t even suggest you would ban pubs. You said you would impose a mask mandate, which of course would include pubs.

    My question to you is would you also mandate vaccinations?
    No but I would insist on vaccination passports at all pubs and indoor venues to the point that most can’t be arsed to vaccinate people give up and get vaccinated (see for examples Italy where numbers shot up once that rule was announced).
    Fair enough. I disagree but your stance is highly rational. Unlike that of the irrational Rochdale.
    Careful now, irrational, cynical, bile, these are all views about people tgat get trotted out on here, granted a fair few are about me!
    "Cynic" comes from the Ancient Greek κύων (kuon), which is cognate with the Latin canis. It means "dog". It was applied to the Cynics because of their supposedly coarse aggressive manner.

    In Ancient Rome, the emperor Vespasian was once hectored rudely by a Cynic opponent. Instead of ordering him executed, which was the kind of thing previous emperors had done, Vespasian simply responded "oh well, after all he’s a dog". Which was apparently quite the comedic turn. I guess you had to be there.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,477
    ping said:

    I’m at a loss to explain what’s going on in the midlands. Anyone?

    Um, more information please. What is going on?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs have a pretty good chance of winning North Shropshire IMO. I can't see it being a Labour win, even though they were in second place last time.

    Er - really?

    That would be a 26% swing in a seat where they've never got over 25% of the vote.

    In a Leave seat. In a place where all the actual left-wingness is a Welsh-speaking area.

    The Richter scale will actually snap if they win this one.
    There is a Welsh-speaking part of North Shropshire. That I did not know. PB really is a source of fascinating nuggets.
    There is??!

    I didn't know that either. Fantastic bit of WTF info
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,406
    ping said:

    I’m at a loss to explain what’s going on in the midlands. Anyone?

    Higher % of swing voters?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,437
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Still think a Tory majority is the best bet out there. Hopefully polling like this will make it even better.

    We never talk about the LDs but the Tories are going to struggle to hold many seats in Remain areas where the LDs are in second place.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
    Why should they struggle to hold those seats in 2024 when they didn't in 2019? I see no sign of a Lib Dem recovery and think it is unlikely under Davey's leadership. I do agree with @OnlyLivingBoy that the key area next time is going to be the midlands and it is interesting that the swings against Boris seem highest there.
    I wonder how far Johnson can push "decent" Southern Tories before they just sit on their hands next time in large numbers. His government is beginning to stink of incompetence and sleaze.
    The budget seems to have been pretty well received. The economy is growing pretty fast, at least in the short term. We have full employment and rising wages. The boosters are being delivered at a good clip. The number of cases of the virus have clearly peaked and the government's policy of letting things rip over the summer is very likely to pay significant dividends in the winter. COP26 is looking like a solid piece of work if not quite a spectacular success.

    There are plenty of things on the other side of the balance sheet, many of them self-inflicted, but I think your assessment of the government is excessively partial.
    Although I hope you are wrong David, those last two posts were good. I also can't see the LD taking too many of those seats on current numbers. Some but not enough to matter. Sadly as a LD.

    Also I hadn't really considered the positives because of the negatives and you mention a few. One negative not mentioned is potentially inflation. That is a worry particularly for the generation that votes Conservative.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,080
    edited November 7

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs have a pretty good chance of winning North Shropshire IMO. I can't see it being a Labour win, even though they were in second place last time.

    Er - really?

    That would be a 26% swing in a seat where they've never got over 25% of the vote.

    In a Leave seat. In a place where all the actual left-wingness is a Welsh-speaking area.

    The Richter scale will actually snap if they win this one.
    There is a Welsh-speaking part of North Shropshire. That I did not know. PB really is a source of fascinating nuggets.
    The area around Oswestry stretching to the Welsh border. My father's home country (not that he's Welsh speaking). Oswestry itself used to be Welsh-speaking although I think (not that I know it particularly well) it's become steadily more anglicised. It was helped by the fact that until about 1966 all of its major transport links other than the A5 were with Wales rather than England.

    The Liberal party used to be strong in that area, but in common with the fortunes in neighbouring Powys they have increasingly withered away with one last hurrah in 2010 where they came second overall.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 4,839

    DavidL said:

    Still think a Tory majority is the best bet out there. Hopefully polling like this will make it even better.

    We never talk about the LDs but the Tories are going to struggle to hold many seats in Remain areas where the LDs are in second place.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
    Having won those seats in a specifically brexit election?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142

    ping said:

    I’m at a loss to explain what’s going on in the midlands. Anyone?

    Higher % of swing voters?
    I think the Thor snow-globe theory was probably about right.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    OTOH: hmmm


    Google does not immediately throw up any obvious clusters of Welsh-speakers in Shropshire. Indeed the first few references are all about Welsh speaking persisting "around Oswestry" into the 1970s. Which rather suggests the opposite?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,924
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs have a pretty good chance of winning North Shropshire IMO. I can't see it being a Labour win, even though they were in second place last time.

    Er - really?

    That would be a 26% swing in a seat where they've never got over 25% of the vote.

    In a Leave seat. In a place where all the actual left-wingness is a Welsh-speaking area.

    The Richter scale will actually snap if they win this one.
    There is a Welsh-speaking part of North Shropshire. That I did not know. PB really is a source of fascinating nuggets.
    The area around Oswestry stretching to the Welsh border. My father's home country (not that he's Welsh speaking). Oswestry itself used to be Welsh-speaking although I think (not that I know it particularly well) it's become steadily more anglicised. It was helped by the fact that until about 1966 all of its major transport links other than the A5 were with Wales rather than England.

    The Liberal party used to be strong in that area, but in common with the fortunes in neighbouring Powys they have increasingly withered away with one last hurrah in 2010 where they came second overall.
    Fascinating, thanks. Are the signs bilingual or are the Gallophone population ostracised/ignored?
  • pingping Posts: 1,409
    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally I am surprised nobody has mentioned this tragedy:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-59188753

    Sounds very bad indeed.

    There was actually a similar accident in this country about 15 years ago - but, it happened in a remote part of Herefordshire just outside Leominster so the only people nearby were the drivers, who were both killed - a nearby house was blown up but it was empty at the time.

    To think it could happen in a crowded city centre is - horrific.

    It’s tragic. Life is cheap in Africa.

    The death toll is so high because large numbers of people were trying to nick the leaking fuel. I hope, in this country, we’re generally better educated in safety related matters and not so poor, that a similar situation probably wouldn’t happen.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,927

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    I don't know why people think this is so hard. Just ban second jobs. If it means MPs can't do shifts in A&E that's a shame. But there's a bigger issue at stake here.

    Limit outside work to that which is required to maintain validation in an existing career, for example doctors and air traffic controllers.

    Also pay MPs closer to £100k, as the current pay clearly isn’t attracting the required quality of candidate.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,080
    eek said:

    ping said:

    I’m at a loss to explain what’s going on in the midlands. Anyone?

    None of the promised money - threat to the eastern leg of HS2 (annoys the east midlands) and a spending review that gave most parts of the midlands absolutely nothing.
    And working based more in manufacturing perhaps which has not had it too easy under Covid, Brexit and supply chain disruption?

    That's a speculation, but I know anecdotally there's a lot of frustration at the back slapping in the south while there are factories around here still on short hours.
  • @RochdalePioneers FPT

    Right, let me clarify your response.

    You would mandate mask wearing in England now. Okay. You would introduce a law that makes it illegal to visit pubs, bars, theatres, clubs and shops without a mask. That’s a very significant imposition.

    Would you then also mandate vaccination in England from today?

    ?

    Where did I say ban visiting pubs etc? They aren't banned up here or in Germany or in the rest of the world that hasn't been as daft as England in dropping the requirement to wear masks. England - like the rest of the developed world - should have maintained a mask mandate.

    You didn't. you can't put the genie back in the bottle. Politically any new restrictions will be difficult because so many people down there think its all over. Hence the need for Plan B, Plan C, "Jabbed or Christmas gets it" etc etc

    You keep asking what I think. I don't think. But I listen to what Whitty, Vallance, Van-Tam, Taylor etc think. I know nothing on this subject, I am not a doctor or a virologist or someone qualified to disagree with them. Unlike you and many on here apparently.
    No. Wrong again. I didn’t even suggest you would ban pubs. You said you would impose a mask mandate, which of course would include pubs.

    My question to you is would you also mandate vaccinations?
    You know my position on this. I'm against vaccine passports so why would I be in favour of pinning people down to vaccinate them?

    So whats your point? Here and everywhere else you need to wear a mask indoors in public buildings. You take them off when sat eating or drinking. They remain open and thriving and with less infections which means more people available to work and go out spending money. A "significant imposition" that pretty much everywhere else manages without a fuss.

    Ultimately its down to who is the expert here. I am not. You apparently are. Perhaps the NHS should listen to you.
    I don’t claim to be an expert, and never have. My view is that we should retain the status quo. I’ve been clear about that. I would mandate neither vaccinations nor masks, although I would advocate a stronger public campaign on vaccinations to whittle down the refuseniks.

    I find your position absolutely irrational. You would mandate masks - which are a daily imposition, affect 100% of the population and have only a moderate impact. But you would not mandate vaccinations, which are a minor inconvenience, affect just 5% of the population (the unvaxxed cohort) and have a huge impact. That is a bizarre position in my view. Deeply irrational.
    I'm happy to be "irrational" in your eyes. As my position is shared by much of the developed world I'll take your comments under advisement.

    The rational view would of course be mandatory vaccinations AND masks until completed. Then again as vaccinations have proven to be ineffective at wholly stopping the virus (unlike some other vaccines for other viruses) we would need to retain masks even with a full mandatory vaccination programme until we had all had sufficient rounds of boosters to stop this thing.

    I do love the "moderate impact" lie from you ant-maskers. It doesn't matter how much the scientists prove the significant reduction in transmission gained from the proper wearing of masks, you and your still say "not proven".
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,715

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs have a pretty good chance of winning North Shropshire IMO. I can't see it being a Labour win, even though they were in second place last time.

    Er - really?

    That would be a 26% swing in a seat where they've never got over 25% of the vote.

    In a Leave seat. In a place where all the actual left-wingness is a Welsh-speaking area.

    The Richter scale will actually snap if they win this one.
    There is a Welsh-speaking part of North Shropshire? That I did not know. PB really is a source of fascinating nuggets.
    Presumably in Oswestry. Wikipedia says there is a Welsh-language Church.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,080
    edited November 7

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs have a pretty good chance of winning North Shropshire IMO. I can't see it being a Labour win, even though they were in second place last time.

    Er - really?

    That would be a 26% swing in a seat where they've never got over 25% of the vote.

    In a Leave seat. In a place where all the actual left-wingness is a Welsh-speaking area.

    The Richter scale will actually snap if they win this one.
    There is a Welsh-speaking part of North Shropshire. That I did not know. PB really is a source of fascinating nuggets.
    The area around Oswestry stretching to the Welsh border. My father's home country (not that he's Welsh speaking). Oswestry itself used to be Welsh-speaking although I think (not that I know it particularly well) it's become steadily more anglicised. It was helped by the fact that until about 1966 all of its major transport links other than the A5 were with Wales rather than England.

    The Liberal party used to be strong in that area, but in common with the fortunes in neighbouring Powys they have increasingly withered away with one last hurrah in 2010 where they came second overall.
    Fascinating, thanks. Are the signs bilingual or are the Gallophone population ostracised/ignored?
    As I recall, although it's a while since I drove that way, they're only in English. This leads to the slightly weird situation where you can cross from southern Montgomeryshire - which is English speaking and has a series of English named villages with contrived Welsh names and Welsh road instructions first - into England, where all the place names for the next five miles are actually Welsh but the signs are only in English.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,188
    kjh said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Still think a Tory majority is the best bet out there. Hopefully polling like this will make it even better.

    We never talk about the LDs but the Tories are going to struggle to hold many seats in Remain areas where the LDs are in second place.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
    Why should they struggle to hold those seats in 2024 when they didn't in 2019? I see no sign of a Lib Dem recovery and think it is unlikely under Davey's leadership. I do agree with @OnlyLivingBoy that the key area next time is going to be the midlands and it is interesting that the swings against Boris seem highest there.
    I wonder how far Johnson can push "decent" Southern Tories before they just sit on their hands next time in large numbers. His government is beginning to stink of incompetence and sleaze.
    The budget seems to have been pretty well received. The economy is growing pretty fast, at least in the short term. We have full employment and rising wages. The boosters are being delivered at a good clip. The number of cases of the virus have clearly peaked and the government's policy of letting things rip over the summer is very likely to pay significant dividends in the winter. COP26 is looking like a solid piece of work if not quite a spectacular success.

    There are plenty of things on the other side of the balance sheet, many of them self-inflicted, but I think your assessment of the government is excessively partial.
    Although I hope you are wrong David, those last two posts were good. I also can't see the LD taking too many of those seats on current numbers. Some but not enough to matter. Sadly as a LD.

    Also I hadn't really considered the positives because of the negatives and you mention a few. One negative not mentioned is potentially inflation. That is a worry particularly for the generation that votes Conservative.
    I was personally surprised that the BoE did not start the process of raising interest rates last week. I think doing so, even to the derisory level of 0.25%, would have given indications that inflation was a concern and that the Bank would take action. That alone might have tempered future inflationary expectations somewhat. I think it was a mistake.

    The Bank is, of course, independent, but the generation you talk about who vote Tory do not, by and large, have mortgages and have been getting a terrible return on their savings. They would have no problem with rising rates. I suspect the Chancellor may well have a quiet word with the Governor.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs have a pretty good chance of winning North Shropshire IMO. I can't see it being a Labour win, even though they were in second place last time.

    Er - really?

    That would be a 26% swing in a seat where they've never got over 25% of the vote.

    In a Leave seat. In a place where all the actual left-wingness is a Welsh-speaking area.

    The Richter scale will actually snap if they win this one.
    There is a Welsh-speaking part of North Shropshire. That I did not know. PB really is a source of fascinating nuggets.
    The area around Oswestry stretching to the Welsh border. My father's home country (not that he's Welsh speaking). Oswestry itself used to be Welsh-speaking although I think (not that I know it particularly well) it's become steadily more anglicised. It was helped by the fact that until about 1966 all of its major transport links other than the A5 were with Wales rather than England.

    The Liberal party used to be strong in that area, but in common with the fortunes in neighbouring Powys they have increasingly withered away with one last hurrah in 2010 where they came second overall.
    Google says the Welsh speakers have now disappeared. Shame. It was a nice mental image

    I remember as a boy in Hereford hearing Welsh farmers speaking Welsh in the Butter Market. It was fantastically exotic. An ancient language come down from the hills, for the day...

    Here's an article on Welshness in England

    https://sluggerotoole.com/2009/08/20/welsh-speaking-england/

    It includes this fascinating comment beneath:

    "in view of the above mentioned Sheela-na-geeg, one could assert that Ireland also leads the world in the field of stone carved sex-toys"
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,584

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs have a pretty good chance of winning North Shropshire IMO. I can't see it being a Labour win, even though they were in second place last time.

    Er - really?

    That would be a 26% swing in a seat where they've never got over 25% of the vote.

    In a Leave seat. In a place where all the actual left-wingness is a Welsh-speaking area.

    The Richter scale will actually snap if they win this one.
    There is a Welsh-speaking part of North Shropshire. That I did not know. PB really is a source of fascinating nuggets.
    The area around Oswestry stretching to the Welsh border. My father's home country (not that he's Welsh speaking). Oswestry itself used to be Welsh-speaking although I think (not that I know it particularly well) it's become steadily more anglicised. It was helped by the fact that until about 1966 all of its major transport links other than the A5 were with Wales rather than England.

    The Liberal party used to be strong in that area, but in common with the fortunes in neighbouring Powys they have increasingly withered away with one last hurrah in 2010 where they came second overall.
    Fascinating, thanks. Are the signs bilingual or are the Gallophone population ostracised/ignored?
    Wolves chant to Shrewsbury Town fans in cup match 3 years ago: "You're Welsh and you know you are".
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,318

    Golly, Jess out lyingTorybastard-ing Angela.




    Paterson is dust. They would be better advised to push the angle that this was a pre-emptive strike to save Johnson. And the Opposition front bench were doing so well earlier in the week. Ah well, normal service is resumed.
    They need to move quickly on to the covid contracts for mates, which seems closely related judging by Observer front page.

    Let slip the dogs of war.
    I'd say 2 pronged. On the government/party, 'one rule for them one for everyone else' and 'corrupt favours for mates' etc. And personal on the PM, the lack of probity and relentless lying. Plus I'd have people other than Starmer doing the heavy lifting. Starmer to retain that air of professionalism and reserve that I think might actually end up a plus.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,080

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs have a pretty good chance of winning North Shropshire IMO. I can't see it being a Labour win, even though they were in second place last time.

    Er - really?

    That would be a 26% swing in a seat where they've never got over 25% of the vote.

    In a Leave seat. In a place where all the actual left-wingness is a Welsh-speaking area.

    The Richter scale will actually snap if they win this one.
    There is a Welsh-speaking part of North Shropshire. That I did not know. PB really is a source of fascinating nuggets.
    The area around Oswestry stretching to the Welsh border. My father's home country (not that he's Welsh speaking). Oswestry itself used to be Welsh-speaking although I think (not that I know it particularly well) it's become steadily more anglicised. It was helped by the fact that until about 1966 all of its major transport links other than the A5 were with Wales rather than England.

    The Liberal party used to be strong in that area, but in common with the fortunes in neighbouring Powys they have increasingly withered away with one last hurrah in 2010 where they came second overall.
    Fascinating, thanks. Are the signs bilingual or are the Gallophone population ostracised/ignored?
    Wolves chant to Shrewsbury Town fans in cup match 3 years ago: "You're Welsh and you know you are".
    They were sheep in Wolves' clothing?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,715
    Sandpit said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    I don't know why people think this is so hard. Just ban second jobs. If it means MPs can't do shifts in A&E that's a shame. But there's a bigger issue at stake here.

    Limit outside work to that which is required to maintain validation in an existing career, for example doctors and air traffic controllers.

    Also pay MPs closer to £100k, as the current pay clearly isn’t attracting the required quality of candidate.
    If you ban second jobs, you would have to ban MPs from being ministers. Why should you be able to work for the Government but not the private sector?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs have a pretty good chance of winning North Shropshire IMO. I can't see it being a Labour win, even though they were in second place last time.

    Er - really?

    That would be a 26% swing in a seat where they've never got over 25% of the vote.

    In a Leave seat. In a place where all the actual left-wingness is a Welsh-speaking area.

    The Richter scale will actually snap if they win this one.
    There is a Welsh-speaking part of North Shropshire. That I did not know. PB really is a source of fascinating nuggets.
    The area around Oswestry stretching to the Welsh border. My father's home country (not that he's Welsh speaking). Oswestry itself used to be Welsh-speaking although I think (not that I know it particularly well) it's become steadily more anglicised. It was helped by the fact that until about 1966 all of its major transport links other than the A5 were with Wales rather than England.

    The Liberal party used to be strong in that area, but in common with the fortunes in neighbouring Powys they have increasingly withered away with one last hurrah in 2010 where they came second overall.
    Fascinating, thanks. Are the signs bilingual or are the Gallophone population ostracised/ignored?
    Gallophone?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,924
    Leon said:

    OTOH: hmmm


    Google does not immediately throw up any obvious clusters of Welsh-speakers in Shropshire. Indeed the first few references are all about Welsh speaking persisting "around Oswestry" into the 1970s. Which rather suggests the opposite?

    I think the OP said that didn’t he? I read his post as meaning the Gallophone area stretched from OUTSIDE Oswestry, west to the border, an area that seems to roughly equate to (the very Welsh sounding!) English village of Nant-y-Gollen and environs when looking at the map?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,924
    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs have a pretty good chance of winning North Shropshire IMO. I can't see it being a Labour win, even though they were in second place last time.

    Er - really?

    That would be a 26% swing in a seat where they've never got over 25% of the vote.

    In a Leave seat. In a place where all the actual left-wingness is a Welsh-speaking area.

    The Richter scale will actually snap if they win this one.
    There is a Welsh-speaking part of North Shropshire. That I did not know. PB really is a source of fascinating nuggets.
    The area around Oswestry stretching to the Welsh border. My father's home country (not that he's Welsh speaking). Oswestry itself used to be Welsh-speaking although I think (not that I know it particularly well) it's become steadily more anglicised. It was helped by the fact that until about 1966 all of its major transport links other than the A5 were with Wales rather than England.

    The Liberal party used to be strong in that area, but in common with the fortunes in neighbouring Powys they have increasingly withered away with one last hurrah in 2010 where they came second overall.
    Fascinating, thanks. Are the signs bilingual or are the Gallophone population ostracised/ignored?
    Gallophone?
    I might have got the term wrong. Always thought that meant welsh speaking.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,526

    @RochdalePioneers FPT

    Right, let me clarify your response.

    You would mandate mask wearing in England now. Okay. You would introduce a law that makes it illegal to visit pubs, bars, theatres, clubs and shops without a mask. That’s a very significant imposition.

    Would you then also mandate vaccination in England from today?

    ?

    Where did I say ban visiting pubs etc? They aren't banned up here or in Germany or in the rest of the world that hasn't been as daft as England in dropping the requirement to wear masks. England - like the rest of the developed world - should have maintained a mask mandate.

    You didn't. you can't put the genie back in the bottle. Politically any new restrictions will be difficult because so many people down there think its all over. Hence the need for Plan B, Plan C, "Jabbed or Christmas gets it" etc etc

    You keep asking what I think. I don't think. But I listen to what Whitty, Vallance, Van-Tam, Taylor etc think. I know nothing on this subject, I am not a doctor or a virologist or someone qualified to disagree with them. Unlike you and many on here apparently.
    No. Wrong again. I didn’t even suggest you would ban pubs. You said you would impose a mask mandate, which of course would include pubs.

    My question to you is would you also mandate vaccinations?
    You know my position on this. I'm against vaccine passports so why would I be in favour of pinning people down to vaccinate them?

    So whats your point? Here and everywhere else you need to wear a mask indoors in public buildings. You take them off when sat eating or drinking. They remain open and thriving and with less infections which means more people available to work and go out spending money. A "significant imposition" that pretty much everywhere else manages without a fuss.

    Ultimately its down to who is the expert here. I am not. You apparently are. Perhaps the NHS should listen to you.
    I don’t claim to be an expert, and never have. My view is that we should retain the status quo. I’ve been clear about that. I would mandate neither vaccinations nor masks, although I would advocate a stronger public campaign on vaccinations to whittle down the refuseniks.

    I find your position absolutely irrational. You would mandate masks - which are a daily imposition, affect 100% of the population and have only a moderate impact. But you would not mandate vaccinations, which are a minor inconvenience, affect just 5% of the population (the unvaxxed cohort) and have a huge impact. That is a bizarre position in my view. Deeply irrational.
    I'm happy to be "irrational" in your eyes. As my position is shared by much of the developed world I'll take your comments under advisement.

    The rational view would of course be mandatory vaccinations AND masks until completed. Then again as vaccinations have proven to be ineffective at wholly stopping the virus (unlike some other vaccines for other viruses) we would need to retain masks even with a full mandatory vaccination programme until we had all had sufficient rounds of boosters to stop this thing.

    I do love the "moderate impact" lie from you ant-maskers. It doesn't matter how much the scientists prove the significant reduction in transmission gained from the proper wearing of masks, you and your still say "not proven".
    So actually what you are saying is that in practice we will maintain masks forever. No thanks.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861

    Leon said:

    OTOH: hmmm


    Google does not immediately throw up any obvious clusters of Welsh-speakers in Shropshire. Indeed the first few references are all about Welsh speaking persisting "around Oswestry" into the 1970s. Which rather suggests the opposite?

    I think the OP said that didn’t he? I read his post as meaning the Gallophone area stretched from OUTSIDE Oswestry, west to the border, an area that seems to roughly equate to (the very Welsh sounding!) English village of Nant-y-Gollen and environs when looking at the map?
    To be fair I didn't see the original comment which kicked off this intriguing debate.

    I'd love there to be a remote, lost, Welsh speaking village in England, in the Marches, but having seen the last Welsh speakers in Herefordshire (invading farmers) disappear in my childhood I doubt there are any in Shropshire.
  • Leon said:

    @RochdalePioneers FPT

    Right, let me clarify your response.

    You would mandate mask wearing in England now. Okay. You would introduce a law that makes it illegal to visit pubs, bars, theatres, clubs and shops without a mask. That’s a very significant imposition.

    Would you then also mandate vaccination in England from today?

    ?

    Where did I say ban visiting pubs etc? They aren't banned up here or in Germany or in the rest of the world that hasn't been as daft as England in dropping the requirement to wear masks. England - like the rest of the developed world - should have maintained a mask mandate.

    You didn't. you can't put the genie back in the bottle. Politically any new restrictions will be difficult because so many people down there think its all over. Hence the need for Plan B, Plan C, "Jabbed or Christmas gets it" etc etc

    You keep asking what I think. I don't think. But I listen to what Whitty, Vallance, Van-Tam, Taylor etc think. I know nothing on this subject, I am not a doctor or a virologist or someone qualified to disagree with them. Unlike you and many on here apparently.
    Jesus Christ, Jonathan Van-Tam, the "qualified" man you revere on this issue, famously said "masks are useless, my friend in Hong Kong told me" (this despite everyone in Hong Kong wearing a mask. Odd that)

    He's a fricking idiot. You are pathetically grovelling to establishment half-wits. Grow a spine

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xx4u3t4v8cA

    Go to 0:54

    And in case you didn’t notice, the entire premise of his response is wrong (yet again) as nowhere did I suggest that he was advocating the closure of pubs. I was talking about mask mandates, which really ought to have been clear from my question which cited, er, mask mandates.
    I still don't understand your point about masks in pubs. Either they are a massive hindrance to the pub / theatre / cinema as you suggest or they are not. You think they are. I know they are not. You think based on your opinion, I know based on evidence.

    So what was your point? Oh yes. You are an anti-masker. The "significant imposition" you project onto pubs, theatres etc is actually on you. If that's your position then why not just say so?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,437

    Dont think many Tories go straight to Labour. Dont know is highly likely to be correct. If you are out canvassing and you start to hear don't know or won't say in known Tory wards then you know the Tories are in trouble.

    The Tories have to get rid of Boris he will lead them over the cliff.

    Seeing as you say I'm on your case it's only fair if I don't do so when you post like everyone else. Unfortunately me not commenting doesn't show that, which is what I would normally do.

    So I'm not commenting whether I agree or disagree with what you have just said. I'm just saying for a change it's normal.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs have a pretty good chance of winning North Shropshire IMO. I can't see it being a Labour win, even though they were in second place last time.

    Er - really?

    That would be a 26% swing in a seat where they've never got over 25% of the vote.

    In a Leave seat. In a place where all the actual left-wingness is a Welsh-speaking area.

    The Richter scale will actually snap if they win this one.
    There is a Welsh-speaking part of North Shropshire. That I did not know. PB really is a source of fascinating nuggets.
    The area around Oswestry stretching to the Welsh border. My father's home country (not that he's Welsh speaking). Oswestry itself used to be Welsh-speaking although I think (not that I know it particularly well) it's become steadily more anglicised. It was helped by the fact that until about 1966 all of its major transport links other than the A5 were with Wales rather than England.

    The Liberal party used to be strong in that area, but in common with the fortunes in neighbouring Powys they have increasingly withered away with one last hurrah in 2010 where they came second overall.
    Fascinating, thanks. Are the signs bilingual or are the Gallophone population ostracised/ignored?
    Gallophone?
    I might have got the term wrong. Always thought that meant welsh speaking.
    It means French speaking. I don't know of a word that means Welsh-speaking, but doubtless someone here does.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    To be more cheerful, let us not forget that in the recent past PB.com unearthed a tiny cluster of NATIVE Cornish speakers in southern England, the linguistic equivalent of a zoologist discovering a living velociraptor, so we have done pretty will with obscure tongues
  • @RochdalePioneers FPT

    Right, let me clarify your response.

    You would mandate mask wearing in England now. Okay. You would introduce a law that makes it illegal to visit pubs, bars, theatres, clubs and shops without a mask. That’s a very significant imposition.

    Would you then also mandate vaccination in England from today?

    ?

    Where did I say ban visiting pubs etc? They aren't banned up here or in Germany or in the rest of the world that hasn't been as daft as England in dropping the requirement to wear masks. England - like the rest of the developed world - should have maintained a mask mandate.

    You didn't. you can't put the genie back in the bottle. Politically any new restrictions will be difficult because so many people down there think its all over. Hence the need for Plan B, Plan C, "Jabbed or Christmas gets it" etc etc

    You keep asking what I think. I don't think. But I listen to what Whitty, Vallance, Van-Tam, Taylor etc think. I know nothing on this subject, I am not a doctor or a virologist or someone qualified to disagree with them. Unlike you and many on here apparently.
    No. Wrong again. I didn’t even suggest you would ban pubs. You said you would impose a mask mandate, which of course would include pubs.

    My question to you is would you also mandate vaccinations?
    You know my position on this. I'm against vaccine passports so why would I be in favour of pinning people down to vaccinate them?

    So whats your point? Here and everywhere else you need to wear a mask indoors in public buildings. You take them off when sat eating or drinking. They remain open and thriving and with less infections which means more people available to work and go out spending money. A "significant imposition" that pretty much everywhere else manages without a fuss.

    Ultimately its down to who is the expert here. I am not. You apparently are. Perhaps the NHS should listen to you.
    I don’t claim to be an expert, and never have. My view is that we should retain the status quo. I’ve been clear about that. I would mandate neither vaccinations nor masks, although I would advocate a stronger public campaign on vaccinations to whittle down the refuseniks.

    I find your position absolutely irrational. You would mandate masks - which are a daily imposition, affect 100% of the population and have only a moderate impact. But you would not mandate vaccinations, which are a minor inconvenience, affect just 5% of the population (the unvaxxed cohort) and have a huge impact. That is a bizarre position in my view. Deeply irrational.
    I'm happy to be "irrational" in your eyes. As my position is shared by much of the developed world I'll take your comments under advisement.

    The rational view would of course be mandatory vaccinations AND masks until completed. Then again as vaccinations have proven to be ineffective at wholly stopping the virus (unlike some other vaccines for other viruses) we would need to retain masks even with a full mandatory vaccination programme until we had all had sufficient rounds of boosters to stop this thing.

    I do love the "moderate impact" lie from you ant-maskers. It doesn't matter how much the scientists prove the significant reduction in transmission gained from the proper wearing of masks, you and your still say "not proven".
    So actually what you are saying is that in practice we will maintain masks forever. No thanks.
    Forever? We will get to the point where there is sufficient protection in the vaccinations most of us have had to discard them. I'd quite like to burn mine I hate them that much.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,715
    kinabalu said:

    Golly, Jess out lyingTorybastard-ing Angela.




    Paterson is dust. They would be better advised to push the angle that this was a pre-emptive strike to save Johnson. And the Opposition front bench were doing so well earlier in the week. Ah well, normal service is resumed.
    They need to move quickly on to the covid contracts for mates, which seems closely related judging by Observer front page.

    Let slip the dogs of war.
    I'd say 2 pronged. On the government/party, 'one rule for them one for everyone else' and 'corrupt favours for mates' etc. And personal on the PM, the lack of probity and relentless lying. Plus I'd have people other than Starmer doing the heavy lifting. Starmer to retain that air of professionalism and reserve that I think might actually end up a plus.
    Problem is, our political system seems to decree that a party leader or Prime Minister should rule by Fuehrerprinzip. Ifyour suggestion happened, people would be quick to say Starmer was being ineffective comparing it to all those others sticking it to the Tories.

    If Boris is there because he wins elections, the electorate like him, etc, we would actually be better off if he was a placeman being used as a figurehead by a cabal of cabinet ministers, who would actually be running the show.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,526

    @RochdalePioneers FPT

    Right, let me clarify your response.

    You would mandate mask wearing in England now. Okay. You would introduce a law that makes it illegal to visit pubs, bars, theatres, clubs and shops without a mask. That’s a very significant imposition.

    Would you then also mandate vaccination in England from today?

    ?

    Where did I say ban visiting pubs etc? They aren't banned up here or in Germany or in the rest of the world that hasn't been as daft as England in dropping the requirement to wear masks. England - like the rest of the developed world - should have maintained a mask mandate.

    You didn't. you can't put the genie back in the bottle. Politically any new restrictions will be difficult because so many people down there think its all over. Hence the need for Plan B, Plan C, "Jabbed or Christmas gets it" etc etc

    You keep asking what I think. I don't think. But I listen to what Whitty, Vallance, Van-Tam, Taylor etc think. I know nothing on this subject, I am not a doctor or a virologist or someone qualified to disagree with them. Unlike you and many on here apparently.
    No. Wrong again. I didn’t even suggest you would ban pubs. You said you would impose a mask mandate, which of course would include pubs.

    My question to you is would you also mandate vaccinations?
    You know my position on this. I'm against vaccine passports so why would I be in favour of pinning people down to vaccinate them?

    So whats your point? Here and everywhere else you need to wear a mask indoors in public buildings. You take them off when sat eating or drinking. They remain open and thriving and with less infections which means more people available to work and go out spending money. A "significant imposition" that pretty much everywhere else manages without a fuss.

    Ultimately its down to who is the expert here. I am not. You apparently are. Perhaps the NHS should listen to you.
    I don’t claim to be an expert, and never have. My view is that we should retain the status quo. I’ve been clear about that. I would mandate neither vaccinations nor masks, although I would advocate a stronger public campaign on vaccinations to whittle down the refuseniks.

    I find your position absolutely irrational. You would mandate masks - which are a daily imposition, affect 100% of the population and have only a moderate impact. But you would not mandate vaccinations, which are a minor inconvenience, affect just 5% of the population (the unvaxxed cohort) and have a huge impact. That is a bizarre position in my view. Deeply irrational.
    I'm happy to be "irrational" in your eyes. As my position is shared by much of the developed world I'll take your comments under advisement.

    The rational view would of course be mandatory vaccinations AND masks until completed. Then again as vaccinations have proven to be ineffective at wholly stopping the virus (unlike some other vaccines for other viruses) we would need to retain masks even with a full mandatory vaccination programme until we had all had sufficient rounds of boosters to stop this thing.

    I do love the "moderate impact" lie from you ant-maskers. It doesn't matter how much the scientists prove the significant reduction in transmission gained from the proper wearing of masks, you and your still say "not proven".
    So actually what you are saying is that in practice we will maintain masks forever. No thanks.
    Forever? We will get to the point where there is sufficient protection in the vaccinations most of us have had to discard them. I'd quite like to burn mine I hate them that much.
    Nah we won't. This is going to be endemic and varying just like flu. The idea we will ever be rid of this thing is for the fairies. Might as well get used to it as just another of those many persistent low level threats that we live with.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs have a pretty good chance of winning North Shropshire IMO. I can't see it being a Labour win, even though they were in second place last time.

    Er - really?

    That would be a 26% swing in a seat where they've never got over 25% of the vote.

    In a Leave seat. In a place where all the actual left-wingness is a Welsh-speaking area.

    The Richter scale will actually snap if they win this one.
    There is a Welsh-speaking part of North Shropshire. That I did not know. PB really is a source of fascinating nuggets.
    The area around Oswestry stretching to the Welsh border. My father's home country (not that he's Welsh speaking). Oswestry itself used to be Welsh-speaking although I think (not that I know it particularly well) it's become steadily more anglicised. It was helped by the fact that until about 1966 all of its major transport links other than the A5 were with Wales rather than England.

    The Liberal party used to be strong in that area, but in common with the fortunes in neighbouring Powys they have increasingly withered away with one last hurrah in 2010 where they came second overall.
    Fascinating, thanks. Are the signs bilingual or are the Gallophone population ostracised/ignored?
    Gallophone?
    I might have got the term wrong. Always thought that meant welsh speaking.
    It means French speaking. I don't know of a word that means Welsh-speaking, but doubtless someone here does.
    Cymraegophone?

    Bit clumsy

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,080
    edited November 7

    Leon said:

    OTOH: hmmm


    Google does not immediately throw up any obvious clusters of Welsh-speakers in Shropshire. Indeed the first few references are all about Welsh speaking persisting "around Oswestry" into the 1970s. Which rather suggests the opposite?

    I think the OP said that didn’t he? I read his post as meaning the Gallophone area stretched from OUTSIDE Oswestry, west to the border, an area that seems to roughly equate to (the very Welsh sounding!) English village of Nant-y-Gollen and environs when looking at the map?
    It is getting less - but then Welsh speaking is getting less even in the north-west of Wales. In Shropshire, it doesn't have Welsh-medium education to keep it alive, which is a hindrance, but you can still find plenty of Welsh speakers in that area if you know where to look.

    Generally, they tend in my admittedly fairly limited experience to be more Labour/Liberal inclined than their English-speaking equivalents elsewhere. But as there are fewer of them, there are fewer such voters to draw on.

    Which means - to come back to my original point - that the Liberal Democrats really do not have a significant chance here. It's not like Chesham and Amersham, where the demographics and underlying politics increasingly favoured them. Indeed, if anything it's moving against them.

    Unless Labour or the Liberal Democrats have something to offer people living in small market towns with bad communication links that survive on a mixture of agriculture and tourism, they're not going to progress here.

    Not that the Tories have anything to offer either.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 4,839
    I'm not sure we need a massive re-think on second jobs at the minute. The standards committee seems to be working okay with the current rules.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,080
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The LDs have a pretty good chance of winning North Shropshire IMO. I can't see it being a Labour win, even though they were in second place last time.

    Er - really?

    That would be a 26% swing in a seat where they've never got over 25% of the vote.

    In a Leave seat. In a place where all the actual left-wingness is a Welsh-speaking area.

    The Richter scale will actually snap if they win this one.
    There is a Welsh-speaking part of North Shropshire. That I did not know. PB really is a source of fascinating nuggets.
    The area around Oswestry stretching to the Welsh border. My father's home country (not that he's Welsh speaking). Oswestry itself used to be Welsh-speaking although I think (not that I know it particularly well) it's become steadily more anglicised. It was helped by the fact that until about 1966 all of its major transport links other than the A5 were with Wales rather than England.

    The Liberal party used to be strong in that area, but in common with the fortunes in neighbouring Powys they have increasingly withered away with one last hurrah in 2010 where they came second overall.
    Fascinating, thanks. Are the signs bilingual or are the Gallophone population ostracised/ignored?
    Gallophone?
    I might have got the term wrong. Always thought that meant welsh speaking.
    It means French speaking. I don't know of a word that means Welsh-speaking, but doubtless someone here does.
    Cymraegophone?

    Bit clumsy

    Wallophone, surely?

    Although it makes us sound like Belgians.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    OTOH: hmmm


    Google does not immediately throw up any obvious clusters of Welsh-speakers in Shropshire. Indeed the first few references are all about Welsh speaking persisting "around Oswestry" into the 1970s. Which rather suggests the opposite?

    I think the OP said that didn’t he? I read his post as meaning the Gallophone area stretched from OUTSIDE Oswestry, west to the border, an area that seems to roughly equate to (the very Welsh sounding!) English village of Nant-y-Gollen and environs when looking at the map?
    It is getting less - but then Welsh speaking is getting less even in the north-west of Wales. In Shropshire, it doesn't have Welsh-medium education to keep it alive, which is a hindrance, but you can still find plenty of Welsh speakers in that area if you know where to look.

    Generally, they tend in my admittedly fairly limited experience to be more Labour/Liberal inclined than their English-speaking equivalents elsewhere. But as there are fewer of them, there are fewer such voters to draw on.

    Which means - to come back to my original point - that the Liberal Democrats really do not have a significant chance here. It's not like Chesham and Amersham, where the demographics and underlying politics increasingly favoured them. Indeed, if anything it's moving against them.

    Unless Labour or the Liberal Democrats have something to offer people living in small market towns with bad communication links that survive on a mixture of agriculture and tourism, they're not going to progress here.

    Not that the Tories have anything to offer either.
    I've been Googling for several minutes and I have not found evidence of any contemporary Welsh speakers in Shropshire, let alone a cluster so large they can be politically significant. I am calling this out as nonsense, tho I would be delighted if I am wrong
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,437
    DavidL said:

    kjh said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Still think a Tory majority is the best bet out there. Hopefully polling like this will make it even better.

    We never talk about the LDs but the Tories are going to struggle to hold many seats in Remain areas where the LDs are in second place.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
    Why should they struggle to hold those seats in 2024 when they didn't in 2019? I see no sign of a Lib Dem recovery and think it is unlikely under Davey's leadership. I do agree with @OnlyLivingBoy that the key area next time is going to be the midlands and it is interesting that the swings against Boris seem highest there.
    I wonder how far Johnson can push "decent" Southern Tories before they just sit on their hands next time in large numbers. His government is beginning to stink of incompetence and sleaze.
    The budget seems to have been pretty well received. The economy is growing pretty fast, at least in the short term. We have full employment and rising wages. The boosters are being delivered at a good clip. The number of cases of the virus have clearly peaked and the government's policy of letting things rip over the summer is very likely to pay significant dividends in the winter. COP26 is looking like a solid piece of work if not quite a spectacular success.

    There are plenty of things on the other side of the balance sheet, many of them self-inflicted, but I think your assessment of the government is excessively partial.
    Although I hope you are wrong David, those last two posts were good. I also can't see the LD taking too many of those seats on current numbers. Some but not enough to matter. Sadly as a LD.

    Also I hadn't really considered the positives because of the negatives and you mention a few. One negative not mentioned is potentially inflation. That is a worry particularly for the generation that votes Conservative.
    I was personally surprised that the BoE did not start the process of raising interest rates last week. I think doing so, even to the derisory level of 0.25%, would have given indications that inflation was a concern and that the Bank would take action. That alone might have tempered future inflationary expectations somewhat. I think it was a mistake.

    The Bank is, of course, independent, but the generation you talk about who vote Tory do not, by and large, have mortgages and have been getting a terrible return on their savings. They would have no problem with rising rates. I suspect the Chancellor may well have a quiet word with the Governor.
    Yes I understood it was because of external factors that interest rates can't influence eg wholesale energy prices, but I wonder if a rise to a trivial level would have a physiological impact.
This discussion has been closed.