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Trump’s big WH2020 lie could threaten democracy itself – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,132
    Andy_JS said:

    Dave Wasserman has called it for Youngkin. He isn't often wrong.

    I think it's a fairly comfortable 5-6 point victory in the end.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,132
    Leon said:

    It’s a fairly meaningless exercise to compare England with other countries, as it’s quite unique. It’s like saying France is like Italy. Well up to a point, but it’s not really like Italy. Italy is like Italy and France is like France.

    England is sod all like New Zealand for all that it is more like New Zealand than it is, say, Eritrea.

    It's not meaningless. For example, it tells you where you could be happy as an expat

    I had this debate with a Swiss businessman when I was in Switzerland in September. His thesis was that "you can never be truly comfortable or at ease in any country other than your own". He was speaking as a worldly Swiss man who has lived in multiple countries

    I disagreed. I told him as a Brit I felt entirely at home in Australia. At ease. I know the language, the sports, the politics, the jokes, I get virtually all of it. They go down the pub. They argue about cricket. We all know Shakespeare

    Australia is no more alien to me than the Hebrides or north Norfolk. It feels like a unique bit of Britain with a different climate (that is not meant to be patronising)

    Ireland is almost that yet there is something more alien in the culture, which must be the legacy of Catholicism (and, now, EU membership)

    France feels very foreign. Ditto Spain, Germany or Italy. I am not automatically at ease in these countries, beautiful and cultured as they are. I LOVE holidaying in these places, but that is different

    And on that uncontroversial note, goodnight
    You have clearly never spent time in Darwin.
  • Was knocked off the world-wide freaking web for a spell, by sinister forces beyond my ken.

    Naturally I blame Mr Ed.

    IF he is a PBer of principle, with a wee bit of interest, then expect that a generous % of ill-gotten gains at the expense of Truth, Justice and My Way of Thinking, will find there way into the PB Charitable Fund for Unfortunate Punters and Indigent Psephologists.

    Please remit all donations to yours truly as secretary, treasurer and social director of the fund, care of the Full Cup Espresso Bar, Talent Agency and Charm School, Pahrump, Nevada
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,261
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    It’s a fairly meaningless exercise to compare England with other countries, as it’s quite unique. It’s like saying France is like Italy. Well up to a point, but it’s not really like Italy. Italy is like Italy and France is like France.

    England is sod all like New Zealand for all that it is more like New Zealand than it is, say, Eritrea.

    It's not meaningless. For example, it tells you where you could be happy as an expat

    I had this debate with a Swiss businessman when I was in Switzerland in September. His thesis was that "you can never be truly comfortable or at ease in any country other than your own". He was speaking as a worldly Swiss man who has lived in multiple countries

    I disagreed. I told him as a Brit I felt entirely at home in Australia. At ease. I know the language, the sports, the politics, the jokes, I get virtually all of it. They go down the pub. They argue about cricket. We all know Shakespeare

    Australia is no more alien to me than the Hebrides or north Norfolk. It feels like a unique bit of Britain with a different climate (that is not meant to be patronising)

    Ireland is almost that yet there is something more alien in the culture, which must be the legacy of Catholicism (and, now, EU membership)

    France feels very foreign. Ditto Spain, Germany or Italy. I am not automatically at ease in these countries, beautiful and cultured as they are. I LOVE holidaying in these places, but that is different

    And on that uncontroversial note, goodnight
    You have clearly never spent time in Darwin.
    I have. I love Darwin
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,617
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    It’s a fairly meaningless exercise to compare England with other countries, as it’s quite unique. It’s like saying France is like Italy. Well up to a point, but it’s not really like Italy. Italy is like Italy and France is like France.

    England is sod all like New Zealand for all that it is more like New Zealand than it is, say, Eritrea.

    It's not meaningless. For example, it tells you where you could be happy as an expat

    I had this debate with a Swiss businessman when I was in Switzerland in September. His thesis was that "you can never be truly comfortable or at ease in any country other than your own". He was speaking as a worldly Swiss man who has lived in multiple countries

    I disagreed. I told him as a Brit I felt entirely at home in Australia. At ease. I know the language, the sports, the politics, the jokes, I get virtually all of it. They go down the pub. They argue about cricket. We all know Shakespeare

    Australia is no more alien to me than the Hebrides or north Norfolk. It feels like a unique bit of Britain with a different climate (that is not meant to be patronising)

    Ireland is almost that yet there is something more alien in the culture, which must be the legacy of Catholicism (and, now, EU membership)

    France feels very foreign. Ditto Spain, Germany or Italy. I am not automatically at ease in these countries, beautiful and cultured as they are. I LOVE holidaying in these places, but that is different

    And on that uncontroversial note, goodnight
    You have clearly never spent time in Darwin.
    I have. I love Darwin
    It's a funny thing that even back of beyond Australia feels familiar. In a way it's our frontier country, like the American West.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    It’s a fairly meaningless exercise to compare England with other countries, as it’s quite unique. It’s like saying France is like Italy. Well up to a point, but it’s not really like Italy. Italy is like Italy and France is like France.

    England is sod all like New Zealand for all that it is more like New Zealand than it is, say, Eritrea.

    It's not meaningless. For example, it tells you where you could be happy as an expat

    I had this debate with a Swiss businessman when I was in Switzerland in September. His thesis was that "you can never be truly comfortable or at ease in any country other than your own". He was speaking as a worldly Swiss man who has lived in multiple countries

    I disagreed. I told him as a Brit I felt entirely at home in Australia. At ease. I know the language, the sports, the politics, the jokes, I get virtually all of it. They go down the pub. They argue about cricket. We all know Shakespeare

    Australia is no more alien to me than the Hebrides or north Norfolk. It feels like a unique bit of Britain with a different climate (that is not meant to be patronising)

    Ireland is almost that yet there is something more alien in the culture, which must be the legacy of Catholicism (and, now, EU membership)

    France feels very foreign. Ditto Spain, Germany or Italy. I am not automatically at ease in these countries, beautiful and cultured as they are. I LOVE holidaying in these places, but that is different

    And on that uncontroversial note, goodnight
    You have clearly never spent time in Darwin.
    I have. I love Darwin
    It's a funny thing that even back of beyond Australia feels familiar. In a way it's our frontier country, like the American West.
    The closest I've got to rural Australia is reading Bruce Chatwin's book The Songlines.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    I think the clear message coming out from tonight is that the electorate does not like Donald Trump, but they don't want a Democratic Party run by its left wing. This will bolster the Manchins and Cinemas.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    TimT said:

    I think the clear message coming out from tonight is that the electorate does not like Donald Trump, but they don't want a Democratic Party run by its left wing. This will bolster the Manchins and Cinemas.

    How do we know they don't like Donald Trump when he isn't on the ballot paper anywhere?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Andy_JS said:

    TimT said:

    I think the clear message coming out from tonight is that the electorate does not like Donald Trump, but they don't want a Democratic Party run by its left wing. This will bolster the Manchins and Cinemas.

    How do we know they don't like Donald Trump when he isn't on the ballot paper anywhere?
    Seriously? How about the differential in the Favourables between the GOP candidates and Trump, and how they are outperforming Trump vs his results just a year ago?
  • Leon said:

    Startling fact I just learned,

    The British probably (data sources differ) eat more garlic per head than the French

    That's the UK food revolution, right there

    Ready meals and other prepared food like tinned soups invariably contain garlic.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    edited November 2021
    You know the Dems have had a bad night when the Guardian is only reporting the NYC mayoral election.

    And even that was a disappointment to them!

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/nov/02/eric-adams-wins-mayor-election-new-york-city

    Adams, who defeated several progressive candidates in the Democratic primary, has pledged to cut government inefficiency and made public safety a central part of his campaign.

    In a speech, Adams urged unity and told his story as a working-class child who grew up to become mayor. “Tonight, New Yorkers have chosen one of their own,” Adams, said in a victory speech. “I am you.”
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,370
    edited November 2021
    Looks like @MrEd has both bragging rights and a nice win. Would seem to be Youngkin by between 2.5% and 3% on these figures.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Morning all. So Virginia Governor race is 51/48 in one direction, and New Jersey Governor is 51/48 in the other.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Sandpit said:

    Morning all. So Virginia Governor race is 51/48 in one direction, and New Jersey Governor is 51/48 in the other.

    Edit: wrong about NJ - it’s absolutely neck and neck there now. 1,000 votes between the candidates out of more than 2m counted so far.
    https://www.npr.org/2021/11/02/1050183040/new-jersey-governor-election-results-murphy-ciattarelli
  • I regret to inform you that the New York Times is at it again.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/02/briefing/britain-covid-cases-restrictions.html

    "Britain offers a warning of what happens when a country ignores Covid"

    "Motes and beams" springs to mind:


  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723

    Leon said:

    Startling fact I just learned,

    The British probably (data sources differ) eat more garlic per head than the French

    That's the UK food revolution, right there

    Ready meals and other prepared food like tinned soups invariably contain garlic.
    ..which I am allergic too...
  • tlg86 said:

    You know the Dems have had a bad night when the Guardian is only reporting the NYC mayoral election.

    And even that was a disappointment to them!

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/nov/02/eric-adams-wins-mayor-election-new-york-city

    Adams, who defeated several progressive candidates in the Democratic primary, has pledged to cut government inefficiency and made public safety a central part of his campaign.

    In a speech, Adams urged unity and told his story as a working-class child who grew up to become mayor. “Tonight, New Yorkers have chosen one of their own,” Adams, said in a victory speech. “I am you.”

    LOL.

    Though to be fair Mayor of NYC is probably a better known job in the UK than Governor of West Virginia. I could probably name every Mayor of NYC this century, but would struggle to name even a single former Governor of West Virginia.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,370

    tlg86 said:

    You know the Dems have had a bad night when the Guardian is only reporting the NYC mayoral election.

    And even that was a disappointment to them!

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/nov/02/eric-adams-wins-mayor-election-new-york-city

    Adams, who defeated several progressive candidates in the Democratic primary, has pledged to cut government inefficiency and made public safety a central part of his campaign.

    In a speech, Adams urged unity and told his story as a working-class child who grew up to become mayor. “Tonight, New Yorkers have chosen one of their own,” Adams, said in a victory speech. “I am you.”

    LOL.

    Though to be fair Mayor of NYC is probably a better known job in the UK than Governor of West Virginia. I could probably name every Mayor of NYC this century, but would struggle to name even a single former Governor of West Virginia.
    Virginia, not West Virginia.
  • TimT said:

    I think the clear message coming out from tonight is that the electorate does not like Donald Trump, but they don't want a Democratic Party run by its left wing. This will bolster the Manchins and Cinemas.

    Or that they can't get enthused about a divided party that is suffering from an ongoing deadlock?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2021
    TimT said:

    I think the clear message coming out from tonight is that the electorate does not like Donald Trump, but they don't want a Democratic Party run by its left wing. This will bolster the Manchins and Cinemas.

    Yes, I'm sure Manchin and Sinema blocking massively popular legislation thay were key planks of Biden's election campaign helped the Democrats last night.

    If the Left Wing were "running" the Democratic party the legislation would have been passed months ago, along with a slew of other bills.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    TimT said:

    I think the clear message coming out from tonight is that the electorate does not like Donald Trump, but they don't want a Democratic Party run by its left wing. This will bolster the Manchins and Cinemas.

    So the big question is, how do the GOP moderates stop Trump or his proxy from standing in 2024?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Gop take contact of of Virgina Hoise of Delegates as well.

    That's really big.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,370

    TimT said:

    I think the clear message coming out from tonight is that the electorate does not like Donald Trump, but they don't want a Democratic Party run by its left wing. This will bolster the Manchins and Cinemas.

    Or that they can't get enthused about a divided party that is suffering from an ongoing deadlock?
    But they have voted for the Republicans?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    ydoethur said:

    TimT said:

    I think the clear message coming out from tonight is that the electorate does not like Donald Trump, but they don't want a Democratic Party run by its left wing. This will bolster the Manchins and Cinemas.

    Or that they can't get enthused about a divided party that is suffering from an ongoing deadlock?
    But they have voted for the Republicans?
    The GOP is divided along presentational lines not policy: between those who openly want a coup and those who secretly want a coup.
  • Alistair said:

    Gop take contact of of Virgina Hoise of Delegates as well.

    That's really big.

    Gerrymandering and voter suppression next? Stacking the courts? Tax cuts for the rich? All non-Trump GOP SOP.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    It’s a fairly meaningless exercise to compare England with other countries, as it’s quite unique. It’s like saying France is like Italy. Well up to a point, but it’s not really like Italy. Italy is like Italy and France is like France.

    England is sod all like New Zealand for all that it is more like New Zealand than it is, say, Eritrea.

    It's not meaningless. For example, it tells you where you could be happy as an expat

    I had this debate with a Swiss businessman when I was in Switzerland in September. His thesis was that "you can never be truly comfortable or at ease in any country other than your own". He was speaking as a worldly Swiss man who has lived in multiple countries

    I disagreed. I told him as a Brit I felt entirely at home in Australia. At ease. I know the language, the sports, the politics, the jokes, I get virtually all of it. They go down the pub. They argue about cricket. We all know Shakespeare

    Australia is no more alien to me than the Hebrides or north Norfolk. It feels like a unique bit of Britain with a different climate (that is not meant to be patronising)

    Ireland is almost that yet there is something more alien in the culture, which must be the legacy of Catholicism (and, now, EU membership)

    France feels very foreign. Ditto Spain, Germany or Italy. I am not automatically at ease in these countries, beautiful and cultured as they are. I LOVE holidaying in these places, but that is different

    And on that uncontroversial note, goodnight
    You have clearly never spent time in Darwin.
    Good morning fellow PB-=es. Colder this morning; first time I've met cold this winter.

    Australia and New Zealand are like Britain, but 'not quite'. But there again, all of Britain isn't 'alike'. Wales, even the English speaking areas, is different to Essex. And Scotland is different again.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,370
    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    TimT said:

    I think the clear message coming out from tonight is that the electorate does not like Donald Trump, but they don't want a Democratic Party run by its left wing. This will bolster the Manchins and Cinemas.

    Or that they can't get enthused about a divided party that is suffering from an ongoing deadlock?
    But they have voted for the Republicans?
    The GOP is divided along presentational lines not policy: between those who openly want a coup and those who secretly want a coup.
    incidentally re. a dispute at an organisation run on similar lines but with a different bunch of stupid racists in charge, surely the ECB have to expel Yorkshire from the County Championship unless the board resign?

    If even one-tenth of the things being reported this morning are true then criminal charges could well be following.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    TimT said:

    I think the clear message coming out from tonight is that the electorate does not like Donald Trump, but they don't want a Democratic Party run by its left wing. This will bolster the Manchins and Cinemas.

    Or that they can't get enthused about a divided party that is suffering from an ongoing deadlock?
    But they have voted for the Republicans?
    The GOP is divided along presentational lines not policy: between those who openly want a coup and those who secretly want a coup.
    incidentally re. a dispute at an organisation run on similar lines but with a different bunch of stupid racists in charge, surely the ECB have to expel Yorkshire from the County Championship unless the board resign?

    If even one-tenth of the things being reported this morning are true then criminal charges could well be following.
    Agreed; could turn out very nasty for Yorkshire. And, sadly, and I'm sure temporarily, for cricket.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    It’s a fairly meaningless exercise to compare England with other countries, as it’s quite unique. It’s like saying France is like Italy. Well up to a point, but it’s not really like Italy. Italy is like Italy and France is like France.

    England is sod all like New Zealand for all that it is more like New Zealand than it is, say, Eritrea.

    It's not meaningless. For example, it tells you where you could be happy as an expat

    I had this debate with a Swiss businessman when I was in Switzerland in September. His thesis was that "you can never be truly comfortable or at ease in any country other than your own". He was speaking as a worldly Swiss man who has lived in multiple countries

    I disagreed. I told him as a Brit I felt entirely at home in Australia. At ease. I know the language, the sports, the politics, the jokes, I get virtually all of it. They go down the pub. They argue about cricket. We all know Shakespeare

    Australia is no more alien to me than the Hebrides or north Norfolk. It feels like a unique bit of Britain with a different climate (that is not meant to be patronising)

    Ireland is almost that yet there is something more alien in the culture, which must be the legacy of Catholicism (and, now, EU membership)

    France feels very foreign. Ditto Spain, Germany or Italy. I am not automatically at ease in these countries, beautiful and cultured as they are. I LOVE holidaying in these places, but that is different

    And on that uncontroversial note, goodnight
    You have clearly never spent time in Darwin.
    Good morning fellow PB-=es. Colder this morning; first time I've met cold this winter.

    Australia and New Zealand are like Britain, but 'not quite'. But there again, all of Britain isn't 'alike'. Wales, even the English speaking areas, is different to Essex. And Scotland is different again.
    I think personally that for example Nottingham is more like Melbourne than it is either London or Congleton.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    edited November 2021

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    It’s a fairly meaningless exercise to compare England with other countries, as it’s quite unique. It’s like saying France is like Italy. Well up to a point, but it’s not really like Italy. Italy is like Italy and France is like France.

    England is sod all like New Zealand for all that it is more like New Zealand than it is, say, Eritrea.

    It's not meaningless. For example, it tells you where you could be happy as an expat

    I had this debate with a Swiss businessman when I was in Switzerland in September. His thesis was that "you can never be truly comfortable or at ease in any country other than your own". He was speaking as a worldly Swiss man who has lived in multiple countries

    I disagreed. I told him as a Brit I felt entirely at home in Australia. At ease. I know the language, the sports, the politics, the jokes, I get virtually all of it. They go down the pub. They argue about cricket. We all know Shakespeare

    Australia is no more alien to me than the Hebrides or north Norfolk. It feels like a unique bit of Britain with a different climate (that is not meant to be patronising)

    Ireland is almost that yet there is something more alien in the culture, which must be the legacy of Catholicism (and, now, EU membership)

    France feels very foreign. Ditto Spain, Germany or Italy. I am not automatically at ease in these countries, beautiful and cultured as they are. I LOVE holidaying in these places, but that is different

    And on that uncontroversial note, goodnight
    You have clearly never spent time in Darwin.
    Good morning fellow PB-=es. Colder this morning; first time I've met cold this winter.

    Australia and New Zealand are like Britain, but 'not quite'. But there again, all of Britain isn't 'alike'. Wales, even the English speaking areas, is different to Essex. And Scotland is different again.
    I think personally that for example Nottingham is more like Melbourne than it is either London or Congleton.
    I do worry about you sometimes, Mr T, agreeing with an old lefty like me.
    But you're right. And Nottingham, although I haven't been there much, is different to, for example, Penzance.
    Although of course the main shopping streets of most town have the same stores, with the same shop-fronts.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    It’s a fairly meaningless exercise to compare England with other countries, as it’s quite unique. It’s like saying France is like Italy. Well up to a point, but it’s not really like Italy. Italy is like Italy and France is like France.

    England is sod all like New Zealand for all that it is more like New Zealand than it is, say, Eritrea.

    It's not meaningless. For example, it tells you where you could be happy as an expat

    I had this debate with a Swiss businessman when I was in Switzerland in September. His thesis was that "you can never be truly comfortable or at ease in any country other than your own". He was speaking as a worldly Swiss man who has lived in multiple countries

    I disagreed. I told him as a Brit I felt entirely at home in Australia. At ease. I know the language, the sports, the politics, the jokes, I get virtually all of it. They go down the pub. They argue about cricket. We all know Shakespeare

    Australia is no more alien to me than the Hebrides or north Norfolk. It feels like a unique bit of Britain with a different climate (that is not meant to be patronising)

    Ireland is almost that yet there is something more alien in the culture, which must be the legacy of Catholicism (and, now, EU membership)

    France feels very foreign. Ditto Spain, Germany or Italy. I am not automatically at ease in these countries, beautiful and cultured as they are. I LOVE holidaying in these places, but that is different

    And on that uncontroversial note, goodnight
    You have clearly never spent time in Darwin.
    Good morning fellow PB-=es. Colder this morning; first time I've met cold this winter.

    Australia and New Zealand are like Britain, but 'not quite'. But there again, all of Britain isn't 'alike'. Wales, even the English speaking areas, is different to Essex. And Scotland is different again.
    I think personally that for example Nottingham is more like Melbourne than it is either London or Congleton.
    Remind me never to go to Melbourne.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    It’s a fairly meaningless exercise to compare England with other countries, as it’s quite unique. It’s like saying France is like Italy. Well up to a point, but it’s not really like Italy. Italy is like Italy and France is like France.

    England is sod all like New Zealand for all that it is more like New Zealand than it is, say, Eritrea.

    It's not meaningless. For example, it tells you where you could be happy as an expat

    I had this debate with a Swiss businessman when I was in Switzerland in September. His thesis was that "you can never be truly comfortable or at ease in any country other than your own". He was speaking as a worldly Swiss man who has lived in multiple countries

    I disagreed. I told him as a Brit I felt entirely at home in Australia. At ease. I know the language, the sports, the politics, the jokes, I get virtually all of it. They go down the pub. They argue about cricket. We all know Shakespeare

    Australia is no more alien to me than the Hebrides or north Norfolk. It feels like a unique bit of Britain with a different climate (that is not meant to be patronising)

    Ireland is almost that yet there is something more alien in the culture, which must be the legacy of Catholicism (and, now, EU membership)

    France feels very foreign. Ditto Spain, Germany or Italy. I am not automatically at ease in these countries, beautiful and cultured as they are. I LOVE holidaying in these places, but that is different

    And on that uncontroversial note, goodnight
    You have clearly never spent time in Darwin.
    Good morning fellow PB-=es. Colder this morning; first time I've met cold this winter.

    Australia and New Zealand are like Britain, but 'not quite'. But there again, all of Britain isn't 'alike'. Wales, even the English speaking areas, is different to Essex. And Scotland is different again.
    I think personally that for example Nottingham is more like Melbourne than it is either London or Congleton.
    Remind me never to go to Melbourne.
    The railway station is quite a building! And, at least when we were there, some time ago now, the trams were distinctive.
    Although the one we were on broke down and everyone had to cram onto the next one.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989

    Anyway, glad to see the Tories look at the GOP and see opportunity. This Patterson story just demonstrates the point that Tories think the rules don't apply to them. We've already had senior cabinet ministers found to have broken the ministerial code and being let off by the PM. Then an investigation into the PM doing the same spiked by Number 10 saying they would overrule any findings against the PM. And now Patterson, where they are prepared to rip up the entire parliamentary standards regime to stop his suspension.

    They are going to whip the vote
  • rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    It’s a fairly meaningless exercise to compare England with other countries, as it’s quite unique. It’s like saying France is like Italy. Well up to a point, but it’s not really like Italy. Italy is like Italy and France is like France.

    England is sod all like New Zealand for all that it is more like New Zealand than it is, say, Eritrea.

    It's not meaningless. For example, it tells you where you could be happy as an expat

    I had this debate with a Swiss businessman when I was in Switzerland in September. His thesis was that "you can never be truly comfortable or at ease in any country other than your own". He was speaking as a worldly Swiss man who has lived in multiple countries

    I disagreed. I told him as a Brit I felt entirely at home in Australia. At ease. I know the language, the sports, the politics, the jokes, I get virtually all of it. They go down the pub. They argue about cricket. We all know Shakespeare

    Australia is no more alien to me than the Hebrides or north Norfolk. It feels like a unique bit of Britain with a different climate (that is not meant to be patronising)

    Ireland is almost that yet there is something more alien in the culture, which must be the legacy of Catholicism (and, now, EU membership)

    France feels very foreign. Ditto Spain, Germany or Italy. I am not automatically at ease in these countries, beautiful and cultured as they are. I LOVE holidaying in these places, but that is different

    And on that uncontroversial note, goodnight
    You have clearly never spent time in Darwin.
    Good morning fellow PB-=es. Colder this morning; first time I've met cold this winter.

    Australia and New Zealand are like Britain, but 'not quite'. But there again, all of Britain isn't 'alike'. Wales, even the English speaking areas, is different to Essex. And Scotland is different again.
    I think personally that for example Nottingham is more like Melbourne than it is either London or Congleton.
    Remind me never to go to Melbourne.
    We loved Melbourne on our visit
  • The GOP Virginia win is featured prominently and in-depth on the Guardian website, so not sure where the claim it’s not being covered comes from. The Republicans controlling Virginia no doubt means the state will now be enacting voting laws designed to prevent a Democrat winning its electoral college votes in 2024. That must make Trump even more of a favourite.

    Out of Australia and NZ, I’d say the latter comes closer to feeling like home. Maybe that’s because I have family there. I’ve always found Australia to be a place that takes itself a bit too seriously. The Aussies are very free with their Pom bashing, but are also very thin-skinned about any criticism they might get back. Kiwis always strike me as being far more at ease with their place in the world. I like that.
  • Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Betfair punters seem convinced of the result.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.187090973

    Youngkin has an enormous lead on the NYT website

    This could be quite a significant election - in the UK too. This is maybe the first time the Right has weaponised Wokeness, and the Culture Wars, and used them to clear, decisive advantage
    Weaponising wokeness isn't new, it's simply the latest iteration of Nixon's Southern Strategy - appealing to White voters who disliked the Civil Rights movement. This strategy was so successful that it allowed the Republicans to replace the Democrats as the dominant party for white voters in the South and has been paying dividends for them ever since.
    The Tories have been aping it for a while now, God help us.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    Just so I can stop worrying, did the spirit, spectre or whatever of JFK appear in Dallas last night? I can't see a reference on the BBC site, or in it's papers. summary..
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    Wondering what a resurgent, unrestrained Trumpian GOP means for the world. However you cut it, it’s not pretty. For example, anything agreed at COP is probably going to be binned in 3 years time.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643

    Just so I can stop worrying, did the spirit, spectre or whatever of JFK appear in Dallas last night? I can't see a reference on the BBC site, or in it's papers. summary..

    Apparently the ghost of Marlyn Monroe sent his apologies. Apparently in the spirit realm old habits die hard.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    It’s a fairly meaningless exercise to compare England with other countries, as it’s quite unique. It’s like saying France is like Italy. Well up to a point, but it’s not really like Italy. Italy is like Italy and France is like France.

    England is sod all like New Zealand for all that it is more like New Zealand than it is, say, Eritrea.

    It's not meaningless. For example, it tells you where you could be happy as an expat

    I had this debate with a Swiss businessman when I was in Switzerland in September. His thesis was that "you can never be truly comfortable or at ease in any country other than your own". He was speaking as a worldly Swiss man who has lived in multiple countries

    I disagreed. I told him as a Brit I felt entirely at home in Australia. At ease. I know the language, the sports, the politics, the jokes, I get virtually all of it. They go down the pub. They argue about cricket. We all know Shakespeare

    Australia is no more alien to me than the Hebrides or north Norfolk. It feels like a unique bit of Britain with a different climate (that is not meant to be patronising)

    Ireland is almost that yet there is something more alien in the culture, which must be the legacy of Catholicism (and, now, EU membership)

    France feels very foreign. Ditto Spain, Germany or Italy. I am not automatically at ease in these countries, beautiful and cultured as they are. I LOVE holidaying in these places, but that is different

    And on that uncontroversial note, goodnight
    You have clearly never spent time in Darwin.
    Good morning fellow PB-=es. Colder this morning; first time I've met cold this winter.

    Australia and New Zealand are like Britain, but 'not quite'. But there again, all of Britain isn't 'alike'. Wales, even the English speaking areas, is different to Essex. And Scotland is different again.
    I think personally that for example Nottingham is more like Melbourne than it is either London or Congleton.
    Remind me never to go to Melbourne.
    It’s the only city in Australia I actually have on my list of places to visit.

    (For the F1 race, naturally. Need to tick them all off during my lifetime).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what a resurgent, unrestrained Trumpian GOP means for the world. However you cut it, it’s not pretty. For example, anything agreed at COP is probably going to be binned in 3 years time.

    Should we stop referring to the GOP and refer instead to the American DAP?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Anyway, glad to see the Tories look at the GOP and see opportunity. This Patterson story just demonstrates the point that Tories think the rules don't apply to them. We've already had senior cabinet ministers found to have broken the ministerial code and being let off by the PM. Then an investigation into the PM doing the same spiked by Number 10 saying they would overrule any findings against the PM. And now Patterson, where they are prepared to rip up the entire parliamentary standards regime to stop his suspension.

    They are going to whip the vote

    Of course they are. This is the government that does not believe it should be subjected to any kind of independent scrutiny. And as they remove fundamental freedoms from British citizens, Tory MPs also vote to ensure that they have full freedom to line their own pockets. This is what happens when a venal, mendacious, grifter is in charge. We are moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy. And, as you see on here, there will always be people who are happy to justify it.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    It’s a fairly meaningless exercise to compare England with other countries, as it’s quite unique. It’s like saying France is like Italy. Well up to a point, but it’s not really like Italy. Italy is like Italy and France is like France.

    England is sod all like New Zealand for all that it is more like New Zealand than it is, say, Eritrea.

    It's not meaningless. For example, it tells you where you could be happy as an expat

    I had this debate with a Swiss businessman when I was in Switzerland in September. His thesis was that "you can never be truly comfortable or at ease in any country other than your own". He was speaking as a worldly Swiss man who has lived in multiple countries

    I disagreed. I told him as a Brit I felt entirely at home in Australia. At ease. I know the language, the sports, the politics, the jokes, I get virtually all of it. They go down the pub. They argue about cricket. We all know Shakespeare

    Australia is no more alien to me than the Hebrides or north Norfolk. It feels like a unique bit of Britain with a different climate (that is not meant to be patronising)

    Ireland is almost that yet there is something more alien in the culture, which must be the legacy of Catholicism (and, now, EU membership)

    France feels very foreign. Ditto Spain, Germany or Italy. I am not automatically at ease in these countries, beautiful and cultured as they are. I LOVE holidaying in these places, but that is different

    And on that uncontroversial note, goodnight
    You have clearly never spent time in Darwin.
    Good morning fellow PB-=es. Colder this morning; first time I've met cold this winter.

    Australia and New Zealand are like Britain, but 'not quite'. But there again, all of Britain isn't 'alike'. Wales, even the English speaking areas, is different to Essex. And Scotland is different again.
    I think personally that for example Nottingham is more like Melbourne than it is either London or Congleton.
    Remind me never to go to Melbourne.
    It’s the only city in Australia I actually have on my list of places to visit.

    (For the F1 race, naturally. Need to tick them all off during my lifetime).
    Must admit that I'm beginning to think that wherever is on my bucket-list now isn't going to get visited.
    Bit like the lines
    'I've never seen an armadill
    o dilloing in his armour
    and I 'spect I never will.
  • Amol Rajan doesn't have the right voice for Radio 4.

    His voice is perfectly pleasant, but it's a Radio 5 or One Show voice. When I listen to Radio 4, I expect to hear the presenters enunciate properly.

    Rajan leaves out far too many letters, he uses glottal stops all of the time, he says "yeah" and "gonna" instead of "yes" and "going to", and he just mumbles too much when he tries to speak quickly.

    I'm not a big fan of Toenails, who he's co-presenting with today, but I never have to guess what he's just said. Driving to work yesterday, whenever Mishal Husain was speaking instead of Rajan, I just though "Ah.. yes. Radio 4"

    Mishal Husain and Justin Webb is my Today dream team.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    Leon said:

    It’s a fairly meaningless exercise to compare England with other countries, as it’s quite unique. It’s like saying France is like Italy. Well up to a point, but it’s not really like Italy. Italy is like Italy and France is like France.

    England is sod all like New Zealand for all that it is more like New Zealand than it is, say, Eritrea.

    It's not meaningless. For example, it tells you where you could be happy as an expat

    I had this debate with a Swiss businessman when I was in Switzerland in September. His thesis was that "you can never be truly comfortable or at ease in any country other than your own". He was speaking as a worldly Swiss man who has lived in multiple countries

    I disagreed. I told him as a Brit I felt entirely at home in Australia. At ease. I know the language, the sports, the politics, the jokes, I get virtually all of it. They go down the pub. They argue about cricket. We all know Shakespeare

    Australia is no more alien to me than the Hebrides or north Norfolk. It feels like a unique bit of Britain with a different climate (that is not meant to be patronising)

    Ireland is almost that yet there is something more alien in the culture, which must be the legacy of Catholicism (and, now, EU membership)

    France feels very foreign. Ditto Spain, Germany or Italy. I am not automatically at ease in these countries, beautiful and cultured as they are. I LOVE holidaying in these places, but that is different

    And on that uncontroversial note, goodnight
    I agree with you, but of course have different countries where I'm at home in. Scandinavia, Germany, Switzerland, Netherlands absolutely, Austria at a stretch. Ireland and France less so, Canada and the US not really, though I like them both and enjoy visiting them.

    All of which suggests that familiarity with aspects of national culture that reflect one's own outlook and experience rather more than objective criteria. But it just matters more to some (like your Swiss friend) than it does to others. At a pinch I'd expect to be OK pretty much anywhere.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Scott_xP said:

    Anyway, glad to see the Tories look at the GOP and see opportunity. This Patterson story just demonstrates the point that Tories think the rules don't apply to them. We've already had senior cabinet ministers found to have broken the ministerial code and being let off by the PM. Then an investigation into the PM doing the same spiked by Number 10 saying they would overrule any findings against the PM. And now Patterson, where they are prepared to rip up the entire parliamentary standards regime to stop his suspension.

    They are going to whip the vote

    Of course they are. This is the government that does not believe it should be subjected to any kind of independent scrutiny. And as they remove fundamental freedoms from British citizens, Tory MPs also vote to ensure that they have full freedom to line their own pockets. This is what happens when a venal, mendacious, grifter is in charge. We are moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy. And, as you see on here, there will always be people who are happy to justify it.

    Utterly disgraceful.
    Banana republic stuff.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Anyway, glad to see the Tories look at the GOP and see opportunity. This Patterson story just demonstrates the point that Tories think the rules don't apply to them. We've already had senior cabinet ministers found to have broken the ministerial code and being let off by the PM. Then an investigation into the PM doing the same spiked by Number 10 saying they would overrule any findings against the PM. And now Patterson, where they are prepared to rip up the entire parliamentary standards regime to stop his suspension.

    They are going to whip the vote

    Of course they are. This is the government that does not believe it should be subjected to any kind of independent scrutiny. And as they remove fundamental freedoms from British citizens, Tory MPs also vote to ensure that they have full freedom to line their own pockets. This is what happens when a venal, mendacious, grifter is in charge. We are moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy. And, as you see on here, there will always be people who are happy to justify it.

    You're being ridiculous. Just because you go extreme in your criticism doesn't make people not believing your extreme ravings "justifying moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy" (which we're not doing anything of the sort).

    There's been very serious allegations made about the credibility of the report. The proper thing to do would be to allow a neutral appeal process to sort it out, if the appeal confirms the report then he should face punishment. If the appeal shows the report was as alleged deeply flawed, then that should be the end of the matter.

    That some people wish to do away with principles of justice, doesn't make those defending those principles happy to have a quasi-democracy.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    Scott_xP said:

    Anyway, glad to see the Tories look at the GOP and see opportunity. This Patterson story just demonstrates the point that Tories think the rules don't apply to them. We've already had senior cabinet ministers found to have broken the ministerial code and being let off by the PM. Then an investigation into the PM doing the same spiked by Number 10 saying they would overrule any findings against the PM. And now Patterson, where they are prepared to rip up the entire parliamentary standards regime to stop his suspension.

    They are going to whip the vote

    Of course they are. This is the government that does not believe it should be subjected to any kind of independent scrutiny. And as they remove fundamental freedoms from British citizens, Tory MPs also vote to ensure that they have full freedom to line their own pockets. This is what happens when a venal, mendacious, grifter is in charge. We are moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy. And, as you see on here, there will always be people who are happy to justify it.

    The ultimate aim is to turn us into a pantomime version of Putins kleptocracy. Why else put this guy in charge of overturning the Paterson verdict?

    https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1455642058878767106?t=XAYiC3GaowdUOIAMPXENig&s=19
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,295
    Fivethirtyeight I've noticed do seem to like trying to be super clever in their election analysis, coming up with all sorts of angles and endlessly looking for a more nuanced, alternative take. I guess they need to write stories.

    But the story of Virginia at least seems to be: " in a state that voted for Biden by 10 points, voters said in exit polls that they were evenly divided in who they voted for in 2020".

    So either a lot of people have switched and are misremembering... or... much more likely... more democrats stayed at home vs. republicans. Simple and classic issue for the Dems in off-years.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Scott_xP said:

    Anyway, glad to see the Tories look at the GOP and see opportunity. This Patterson story just demonstrates the point that Tories think the rules don't apply to them. We've already had senior cabinet ministers found to have broken the ministerial code and being let off by the PM. Then an investigation into the PM doing the same spiked by Number 10 saying they would overrule any findings against the PM. And now Patterson, where they are prepared to rip up the entire parliamentary standards regime to stop his suspension.

    They are going to whip the vote

    Of course they are. This is the government that does not believe it should be subjected to any kind of independent scrutiny. And as they remove fundamental freedoms from British citizens, Tory MPs also vote to ensure that they have full freedom to line their own pockets. This is what happens when a venal, mendacious, grifter is in charge. We are moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy. And, as you see on here, there will always be people who are happy to justify it.

    You're being ridiculous. Just because you go extreme in your criticism doesn't make people not believing your extreme ravings "justifying moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy" (which we're not doing anything of the sort).

    There's been very serious allegations made about the credibility of the report. The proper thing to do would be to allow a neutral appeal process to sort it out, if the appeal confirms the report then he should face punishment. If the appeal shows the report was as alleged deeply flawed, then that should be the end of the matter.

    That some people wish to do away with principles of justice, doesn't make those defending those principles happy to have a quasi-democracy.
    Read the report yet?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    It’s a fairly meaningless exercise to compare England with other countries, as it’s quite unique. It’s like saying France is like Italy. Well up to a point, but it’s not really like Italy. Italy is like Italy and France is like France.

    England is sod all like New Zealand for all that it is more like New Zealand than it is, say, Eritrea.

    It's not meaningless. For example, it tells you where you could be happy as an expat

    I had this debate with a Swiss businessman when I was in Switzerland in September. His thesis was that "you can never be truly comfortable or at ease in any country other than your own". He was speaking as a worldly Swiss man who has lived in multiple countries

    I disagreed. I told him as a Brit I felt entirely at home in Australia. At ease. I know the language, the sports, the politics, the jokes, I get virtually all of it. They go down the pub. They argue about cricket. We all know Shakespeare

    Australia is no more alien to me than the Hebrides or north Norfolk. It feels like a unique bit of Britain with a different climate (that is not meant to be patronising)

    Ireland is almost that yet there is something more alien in the culture, which must be the legacy of Catholicism (and, now, EU membership)

    France feels very foreign. Ditto Spain, Germany or Italy. I am not automatically at ease in these countries, beautiful and cultured as they are. I LOVE holidaying in these places, but that is different

    And on that uncontroversial note, goodnight
    You have clearly never spent time in Darwin.
    Good morning fellow PB-=es. Colder this morning; first time I've met cold this winter.

    Australia and New Zealand are like Britain, but 'not quite'. But there again, all of Britain isn't 'alike'. Wales, even the English speaking areas, is different to Essex. And Scotland is different again.
    I think personally that for example Nottingham is more like Melbourne than it is either London or Congleton.
    Remind me never to go to Melbourne.
    We loved Melbourne on our visit
    An unusual example of a city where the suburbs (some, at least) are more attractive than the city centre.
  • Amol Rajan doesn't have the right voice for Radio 4.

    His voice is perfectly pleasant, but it's a Radio 5 or One Show voice. When I listen to Radio 4, I expect to hear the presenters enunciate properly.

    Rajan leaves out far too many letters, he uses glottal stops all of the time, he says "yeah" and "gonna" instead of "yes" and "going to", and he just mumbles too much when he tries to speak quickly.

    I'm not a big fan of Toenails, who he's co-presenting with today, but I never have to guess what he's just said. Driving to work yesterday, whenever Mishal Husain was speaking instead of Rajan, I just though "Ah.. yes. Radio 4"

    Mishal Husain and Justin Webb is my Today dream team.

    It's nice not to have the same endless dreary parade of home counties RP on the radio. Personally I would love to have a much broader range of accents on the radio. I find R4 hard to listen to because the never ending poshness really grates after a while.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Was knocked off the world-wide freaking web for a spell, by sinister forces beyond my ken.

    Naturally I blame Mr Ed.

    IF he is a PBer of principle, with a wee bit of interest, then expect that a generous % of ill-gotten gains at the expense of Truth, Justice and My Way of Thinking, will find there way into the PB Charitable Fund for Unfortunate Punters and Indigent Psephologists.

    Please remit all donations to yours truly as secretary, treasurer and social director of the fund, care of the Full Cup Espresso Bar, Talent Agency and Charm School, Pahrump, Nevada

    Sorry SeaShanty, the hordes of Trorcas (Trump Orcas) are sweeping down into the valley. But I will gladly contribute to the Charitable Fund for UP and IPs. Shall I make the cheque to one HR Clinton?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2021

    Scott_xP said:

    Anyway, glad to see the Tories look at the GOP and see opportunity. This Patterson story just demonstrates the point that Tories think the rules don't apply to them. We've already had senior cabinet ministers found to have broken the ministerial code and being let off by the PM. Then an investigation into the PM doing the same spiked by Number 10 saying they would overrule any findings against the PM. And now Patterson, where they are prepared to rip up the entire parliamentary standards regime to stop his suspension.

    They are going to whip the vote

    Of course they are. This is the government that does not believe it should be subjected to any kind of independent scrutiny. And as they remove fundamental freedoms from British citizens, Tory MPs also vote to ensure that they have full freedom to line their own pockets. This is what happens when a venal, mendacious, grifter is in charge. We are moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy. And, as you see on here, there will always be people who are happy to justify it.

    You're being ridiculous. Just because you go extreme in your criticism doesn't make people not believing your extreme ravings "justifying moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy" (which we're not doing anything of the sort).

    There's been very serious allegations made about the credibility of the report. The proper thing to do would be to allow a neutral appeal process to sort it out, if the appeal confirms the report then he should face punishment. If the appeal shows the report was as alleged deeply flawed, then that should be the end of the matter.

    That some people wish to do away with principles of justice, doesn't make those defending those principles happy to have a quasi-democracy.
    Read the report yet?
    I'll wait for the appeal.

    If the reports not flawed as alleged, then the appeal should confirm that.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Anyway, glad to see the Tories look at the GOP and see opportunity. This Patterson story just demonstrates the point that Tories think the rules don't apply to them. We've already had senior cabinet ministers found to have broken the ministerial code and being let off by the PM. Then an investigation into the PM doing the same spiked by Number 10 saying they would overrule any findings against the PM. And now Patterson, where they are prepared to rip up the entire parliamentary standards regime to stop his suspension.

    They are going to whip the vote

    Of course they are. This is the government that does not believe it should be subjected to any kind of independent scrutiny. And as they remove fundamental freedoms from British citizens, Tory MPs also vote to ensure that they have full freedom to line their own pockets. This is what happens when a venal, mendacious, grifter is in charge. We are moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy. And, as you see on here, there will always be people who are happy to justify it.

    You're being ridiculous. Just because you go extreme in your criticism doesn't make people not believing your extreme ravings "justifying moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy" (which we're not doing anything of the sort).

    There's been very serious allegations made about the credibility of the report. The proper thing to do would be to allow a neutral appeal process to sort it out, if the appeal confirms the report then he should face punishment. If the appeal shows the report was as alleged deeply flawed, then that should be the end of the matter.

    That some people wish to do away with principles of justice, doesn't make those defending those principles happy to have a quasi-democracy.
    Just checking, have you read the report that you appear to have expended thousands of words upon yet?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    rkrkrk said:

    Fivethirtyeight I've noticed do seem to like trying to be super clever in their election analysis, coming up with all sorts of angles and endlessly looking for a more nuanced, alternative take. I guess they need to write stories.

    But the story of Virginia at least seems to be: " in a state that voted for Biden by 10 points, voters said in exit polls that they were evenly divided in who they voted for in 2020".

    So either a lot of people have switched and are misremembering... or... much more likely... more democrats stayed at home vs. republicans. Simple and classic issue for the Dems in off-years.

    Possibly, although from what have heard, turnout was unusually high for an off year and McAuliffe actually did better than Biden in some areas. I do genuinely think there was a switch at the independent level from D to R. I don’t think it’s a turnout issue.

    I’m a bit pissed there wasn’t a NJ Governors’ bet I could find. I think Murphy still wins but it will be close.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited November 2021

    Amol Rajan doesn't have the right voice for Radio 4.

    His voice is perfectly pleasant, but it's a Radio 5 or One Show voice. When I listen to Radio 4, I expect to hear the presenters enunciate properly.

    Rajan leaves out far too many letters, he uses glottal stops all of the time, he says "yeah" and "gonna" instead of "yes" and "going to", and he just mumbles too much when he tries to speak quickly.

    I'm not a big fan of Toenails, who he's co-presenting with today, but I never have to guess what he's just said. Driving to work yesterday, whenever Mishal Husain was speaking instead of Rajan, I just though "Ah.. yes. Radio 4"

    Mishal Husain and Justin Webb is my Today dream team.

    I understand what you mean but he’s a good interviewer - he pulled up some Labour politician (Lisa Nandy?) earlier today “if you could answer the question I asked you, and not the one you answered about who will benefit - but who will pay for Labour’s green plans?” And got a load of waffle on tax avoidance.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Anyway, glad to see the Tories look at the GOP and see opportunity. This Patterson story just demonstrates the point that Tories think the rules don't apply to them. We've already had senior cabinet ministers found to have broken the ministerial code and being let off by the PM. Then an investigation into the PM doing the same spiked by Number 10 saying they would overrule any findings against the PM. And now Patterson, where they are prepared to rip up the entire parliamentary standards regime to stop his suspension.

    They are going to whip the vote

    Of course they are. This is the government that does not believe it should be subjected to any kind of independent scrutiny. And as they remove fundamental freedoms from British citizens, Tory MPs also vote to ensure that they have full freedom to line their own pockets. This is what happens when a venal, mendacious, grifter is in charge. We are moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy. And, as you see on here, there will always be people who are happy to justify it.

    You're being ridiculous. Just because you go extreme in your criticism doesn't make people not believing your extreme ravings "justifying moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy" (which we're not doing anything of the sort).

    There's been very serious allegations made about the credibility of the report. The proper thing to do would be to allow a neutral appeal process to sort it out, if the appeal confirms the report then he should face punishment. If the appeal shows the report was as alleged deeply flawed, then that should be the end of the matter.

    That some people wish to do away with principles of justice, doesn't make those defending those principles happy to have a quasi-democracy.
    Just checking, have you read the report that you appear to have expended thousands of words upon yet?
    No, its 150 pages, I have absolutely no intention of reading it.

    I have read his criticism of the flaws of the report and they are very serious allegations.

    If he's telling the truth, there should be an appeal to sort it out. If an appeal upholds the report then that's fair enough, if the appeal determines that the report was flawed as alleged then that's fair enough too.

    What's wrong with that? Should nobody ever have the right of appeal?
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morning all. So Virginia Governor race is 51/48 in one direction, and New Jersey Governor is 51/48 in the other.

    Edit: wrong about NJ - it’s absolutely neck and neck there now. 1,000 votes between the candidates out of more than 2m counted so far.
    https://www.npr.org/2021/11/02/1050183040/new-jersey-governor-election-results-murphy-ciattarelli
    Now the Republican is ahead, lookslike this is popular:
    "Ciattarelli has promised to lower property taxes, redistribute the extra funding that poor school districts are given to suburban communities. He was known as a moderate during his time in Trenton as a member of the state legislature, but ran to the right during his primary, attending a "Stop the Steal" rally on Jan. 6, the day of the Capitol riot.
    He has also promised to roll back police reforms, prohibit abortions after 20 weeks and slow the climate change actions taken by Murphy."

  • eekeek Posts: 28,367
    edited November 2021
    rkrkrk said:

    Fivethirtyeight I've noticed do seem to like trying to be super clever in their election analysis, coming up with all sorts of angles and endlessly looking for a more nuanced, alternative take. I guess they need to write stories.

    But the story of Virginia at least seems to be: " in a state that voted for Biden by 10 points, voters said in exit polls that they were evenly divided in who they voted for in 2020".

    So either a lot of people have switched and are misremembering... or... much more likely... more democrats stayed at home vs. republicans. Simple and classic issue for the Dems in off-years.

    Classic issue that needs to be fixed - as the consequences (rule changes that will make it harder for democrats to vote in the future) clearly weren't spelled out.

    The other option is that it's already so difficult to vote that people only do it when they really want to.

    I can safely say the latter wasn't the case in New York back in 2019 - we went to the Museum of the Moving Image and disappointed all 3 election people when asked if we were there to vote, there was zero queue and they were so bored, they were outside reception trying to find voters.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rkrkrk said:

    Fivethirtyeight I've noticed do seem to like trying to be super clever in their election analysis, coming up with all sorts of angles and endlessly looking for a more nuanced, alternative take. I guess they need to write stories.

    But the story of Virginia at least seems to be: " in a state that voted for Biden by 10 points, voters said in exit polls that they were evenly divided in who they voted for in 2020".

    So either a lot of people have switched and are misremembering... or... much more likely... more democrats stayed at home vs. republicans. Simple and classic issue for the Dems in off-years.

    Yes, 538's main problem with their non-hard numbers based analysis is that it is dripping with "savvy", inside baseball, takes that do not stand up to even the slightest scrutiny.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    edited November 2021

    Scott_xP said:

    Anyway, glad to see the Tories look at the GOP and see opportunity. This Patterson story just demonstrates the point that Tories think the rules don't apply to them. We've already had senior cabinet ministers found to have broken the ministerial code and being let off by the PM. Then an investigation into the PM doing the same spiked by Number 10 saying they would overrule any findings against the PM. And now Patterson, where they are prepared to rip up the entire parliamentary standards regime to stop his suspension.

    They are going to whip the vote

    Of course they are. This is the government that does not believe it should be subjected to any kind of independent scrutiny. And as they remove fundamental freedoms from British citizens, Tory MPs also vote to ensure that they have full freedom to line their own pockets. This is what happens when a venal, mendacious, grifter is in charge. We are moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy. And, as you see on here, there will always be people who are happy to justify it.

    You're being ridiculous. Just because you go extreme in your criticism doesn't make people not believing your extreme ravings "justifying moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy" (which we're not doing anything of the sort).

    There's been very serious allegations made about the credibility of the report. The proper thing to do would be to allow a neutral appeal process to sort it out, if the appeal confirms the report then he should face punishment. If the appeal shows the report was as alleged deeply flawed, then that should be the end of the matter.

    That some people wish to do away with principles of justice, doesn't make those defending those principles happy to have a quasi-democracy.

    Of course those who do not like the report's findings are going to say that it has serious flaws. Those caught bang to rights always proclaim their innocence. However, the government is not whipping its MPs into supporting an appeals process, it is whipping its MPs to support a move to abolish the current standards system and to replace it with a committee that has a Tory majority on it. You will, of course, find a way to defend that - just as you will defend the government putting itself beyond the scrutiny of the judiciary, just as you will defend the greatest removal of rights from British citizens this country has ever seen in peacetime and just as you will defend the government's relentless lies. Others will as well. And the government will get away with it. Just as the governments of Hungary and Poland have managed to as well.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067

    Amol Rajan doesn't have the right voice for Radio 4.

    His voice is perfectly pleasant, but it's a Radio 5 or One Show voice. When I listen to Radio 4, I expect to hear the presenters enunciate properly.

    Rajan leaves out far too many letters, he uses glottal stops all of the time, he says "yeah" and "gonna" instead of "yes" and "going to", and he just mumbles too much when he tries to speak quickly.

    I'm not a big fan of Toenails, who he's co-presenting with today, but I never have to guess what he's just said. Driving to work yesterday, whenever Mishal Husain was speaking instead of Rajan, I just though "Ah.. yes. Radio 4"

    Mishal Husain and Justin Webb is my Today dream team.

    I disagree.
    Webb is a bit too thick, and Rajan a far more perceptive journalist.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Anyway, glad to see the Tories look at the GOP and see opportunity. This Patterson story just demonstrates the point that Tories think the rules don't apply to them. We've already had senior cabinet ministers found to have broken the ministerial code and being let off by the PM. Then an investigation into the PM doing the same spiked by Number 10 saying they would overrule any findings against the PM. And now Patterson, where they are prepared to rip up the entire parliamentary standards regime to stop his suspension.

    They are going to whip the vote

    Of course they are. This is the government that does not believe it should be subjected to any kind of independent scrutiny. And as they remove fundamental freedoms from British citizens, Tory MPs also vote to ensure that they have full freedom to line their own pockets. This is what happens when a venal, mendacious, grifter is in charge. We are moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy. And, as you see on here, there will always be people who are happy to justify it.

    You're being ridiculous. Just because you go extreme in your criticism doesn't make people not believing your extreme ravings "justifying moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy" (which we're not doing anything of the sort).

    There's been very serious allegations made about the credibility of the report. The proper thing to do would be to allow a neutral appeal process to sort it out, if the appeal confirms the report then he should face punishment. If the appeal shows the report was as alleged deeply flawed, then that should be the end of the matter.

    That some people wish to do away with principles of justice, doesn't make those defending those principles happy to have a quasi-democracy.
    Just checking, have you read the report that you appear to have expended thousands of words upon yet?
    No, its 150 pages, I have absolutely no intention of reading it.

    I have read his criticism of the flaws of the report and they are very serious allegations.

    If he's telling the truth, there should be an appeal to sort it out. If an appeal upholds the report then that's fair enough, if the appeal determines that the report was flawed as alleged then that's fair enough too.

    What's wrong with that? Should nobody ever have the right of appeal?
    Going on and on and on about the injustices of a report that you haven’t read is peak Phil. Marvellous stuff!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    rkrkrk said:

    Fivethirtyeight I've noticed do seem to like trying to be super clever in their election analysis, coming up with all sorts of angles and endlessly looking for a more nuanced, alternative take. I guess they need to write stories.

    But the story of Virginia at least seems to be: " in a state that voted for Biden by 10 points, voters said in exit polls that they were evenly divided in who they voted for in 2020".

    So either a lot of people have switched and are misremembering... or... much more likely... more democrats stayed at home vs. republicans. Simple and classic issue for the Dems in off-years.

    The most likely explanation is that Dem turnout was lower in 2021 than in 2020, becuase getting rid of Trump was a highly-motivating factor for Dems (and swing voters) in 2020.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    I think the clear message coming out from tonight is that the electorate does not like Donald Trump, but they don't want a Democratic Party run by its left wing. This will bolster the Manchins and Cinemas.

    Yes, I'm sure Manchin and Sinema blocking massively popular legislation thay were key planks of Biden's election campaign helped the Democrats last night.

    If the Left Wing were "running" the Democratic party the legislation would have been passed months ago, along with a slew of other bills.
    If I was the Democrats, I would take solace in the fact that the race was close. The GOP only took the House of Delegates by one seat. This is not an overwhelming endorsement for the GOP and it could be argued specific issues (eg the Loudoun School issue) clouded the vote.

    However, there are also two big worries here for the Dems. One is that Trump may not be the bogeyman for independents that he was and that appealing to anti-Trump sentiment won’t be enough. The second, and less commented on, is that Trump restrained himself in the campaign which seems to suggest he perhaps more self-control and wiliness than many on here give him credit for. He knew he would be a big vote loser for Youngkin and he kept his mouth shut. That should give pause for thought.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Anyway, glad to see the Tories look at the GOP and see opportunity. This Patterson story just demonstrates the point that Tories think the rules don't apply to them. We've already had senior cabinet ministers found to have broken the ministerial code and being let off by the PM. Then an investigation into the PM doing the same spiked by Number 10 saying they would overrule any findings against the PM. And now Patterson, where they are prepared to rip up the entire parliamentary standards regime to stop his suspension.

    They are going to whip the vote

    Of course they are. This is the government that does not believe it should be subjected to any kind of independent scrutiny. And as they remove fundamental freedoms from British citizens, Tory MPs also vote to ensure that they have full freedom to line their own pockets. This is what happens when a venal, mendacious, grifter is in charge. We are moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy. And, as you see on here, there will always be people who are happy to justify it.

    You're being ridiculous. Just because you go extreme in your criticism doesn't make people not believing your extreme ravings "justifying moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy" (which we're not doing anything of the sort).

    There's been very serious allegations made about the credibility of the report. The proper thing to do would be to allow a neutral appeal process to sort it out, if the appeal confirms the report then he should face punishment. If the appeal shows the report was as alleged deeply flawed, then that should be the end of the matter.

    That some people wish to do away with principles of justice, doesn't make those defending those principles happy to have a quasi-democracy.
    Just checking, have you read the report that you appear to have expended thousands of words upon yet?
    No, its 150 pages, I have absolutely no intention of reading it.

    I have read his criticism of the flaws of the report and they are very serious allegations.

    If he's telling the truth, there should be an appeal to sort it out. If an appeal upholds the report then that's fair enough, if the appeal determines that the report was flawed as alleged then that's fair enough too.

    What's wrong with that? Should nobody ever have the right of appeal?
    Going on and on and on about the injustices of a report that you haven’t read is peak Phil. Marvellous stuff!
    I'm not "going on and on" about it, I didn't even bring it up, others did. I've said there should be an appeal process to sort it out.

    In your eyes do you think nobody has ever been found guilty by a flawed process and there should never be an appeal process available to anybody, ever?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    - "I dispute that."

    - "Well the facts and the figures show it."

    - "Again, I dispute that."

    - "Shall I read them?"

    - "You can read what you like."
    https://twitter.com/camanpour/status/1455608502936817667
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    The GOP Virginia win is featured prominently and in-depth on the Guardian website, so not sure where the claim it’s not being covered comes from. The Republicans controlling Virginia no doubt means the state will now be enacting voting laws designed to prevent a Democrat winning its electoral college votes in 2024. That must make Trump even more of a favourite.

    Out of Australia and NZ, I’d say the latter comes closer to feeling like home. Maybe that’s because I have family there. I’ve always found Australia to be a place that takes itself a bit too seriously. The Aussies are very free with their Pom bashing, but are also very thin-skinned about any criticism they might get back. Kiwis always strike me as being far more at ease with their place in the world. I like that.

    I have lived in both Melbourne and Christchurch, and lovely cities they are, but the resemblance to Britain can be quite superficial, but easy for a casual visitor to make. I could live quite happily in either country, but there are dozens of others that I could happily live in too, from Austria to Malawi, Malaysia to Mexico.

    I wonder if those extolling the Britishness of NZ would recognise this side of NZ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/03/new-zealand-vaccines-gang-leaders-unite-covid-shots

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    Scott_xP said:

    Anyway, glad to see the Tories look at the GOP and see opportunity. This Patterson story just demonstrates the point that Tories think the rules don't apply to them. We've already had senior cabinet ministers found to have broken the ministerial code and being let off by the PM. Then an investigation into the PM doing the same spiked by Number 10 saying they would overrule any findings against the PM. And now Patterson, where they are prepared to rip up the entire parliamentary standards regime to stop his suspension.

    They are going to whip the vote

    Of course they are. This is the government that does not believe it should be subjected to any kind of independent scrutiny. And as they remove fundamental freedoms from British citizens, Tory MPs also vote to ensure that they have full freedom to line their own pockets. This is what happens when a venal, mendacious, grifter is in charge. We are moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy. And, as you see on here, there will always be people who are happy to justify it.

    You're being ridiculous. Just because you go extreme in your criticism doesn't make people not believing your extreme ravings "justifying moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy" (which we're not doing anything of the sort).

    There's been very serious allegations made about the credibility of the report. The proper thing to do would be to allow a neutral appeal process to sort it out, if the appeal confirms the report then he should face punishment. If the appeal shows the report was as alleged deeply flawed, then that should be the end of the matter.

    That some people wish to do away with principles of justice, doesn't make those defending those principles happy to have a quasi-democracy.
    Just checking, have you read the report that you appear to have expended thousands of words upon yet?
    No, its 150 pages, I have absolutely no intention of reading it.

    I have read his criticism of the flaws of the report and they are very serious allegations.

    If he's telling the truth, there should be an appeal to sort it out. If an appeal upholds the report then that's fair enough, if the appeal determines that the report was flawed as alleged then that's fair enough too.

    What's wrong with that? Should nobody ever have the right of appeal?
    Going on and on and on about the injustices of a report that you haven’t read is peak Phil. Marvellous stuff!
    I'm not "going on and on" about it, I didn't even bring it up, others did. I've said there should be an appeal process to sort it out.

    In your eyes do you think nobody has ever been found guilty by a flawed process and there should never be an appeal process available to anybody, ever?
    Probably the easiest way to deal with what is suggested to be a flawed and possibly prejudiced investigation, is for all those involved to recuse themselves, and for a different, also independent, team run a new investigation on the same evidence.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    Scott_xP said:

    Anyway, glad to see the Tories look at the GOP and see opportunity. This Patterson story just demonstrates the point that Tories think the rules don't apply to them. We've already had senior cabinet ministers found to have broken the ministerial code and being let off by the PM. Then an investigation into the PM doing the same spiked by Number 10 saying they would overrule any findings against the PM. And now Patterson, where they are prepared to rip up the entire parliamentary standards regime to stop his suspension.

    They are going to whip the vote

    Of course they are. This is the government that does not believe it should be subjected to any kind of independent scrutiny. And as they remove fundamental freedoms from British citizens, Tory MPs also vote to ensure that they have full freedom to line their own pockets. This is what happens when a venal, mendacious, grifter is in charge. We are moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy. And, as you see on here, there will always be people who are happy to justify it.

    You're being ridiculous. Just because you go extreme in your criticism doesn't make people not believing your extreme ravings "justifying moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy" (which we're not doing anything of the sort).

    There's been very serious allegations made about the credibility of the report. The proper thing to do would be to allow a neutral appeal process to sort it out, if the appeal confirms the report then he should face punishment. If the appeal shows the report was as alleged deeply flawed, then that should be the end of the matter.

    That some people wish to do away with principles of justice, doesn't make those defending those principles happy to have a quasi-democracy.
    Read the report yet?
    I'll wait for the appeal.

    If the reports not flawed as alleged, then the appeal should confirm that.
    Why not just ask Paterson to lead the enquiry and be done with the pretence?
  • Foxy said:

    The GOP Virginia win is featured prominently and in-depth on the Guardian website, so not sure where the claim it’s not being covered comes from. The Republicans controlling Virginia no doubt means the state will now be enacting voting laws designed to prevent a Democrat winning its electoral college votes in 2024. That must make Trump even more of a favourite.

    Out of Australia and NZ, I’d say the latter comes closer to feeling like home. Maybe that’s because I have family there. I’ve always found Australia to be a place that takes itself a bit too seriously. The Aussies are very free with their Pom bashing, but are also very thin-skinned about any criticism they might get back. Kiwis always strike me as being far more at ease with their place in the world. I like that.

    I have lived in both Melbourne and Christchurch, and lovely cities they are, but the resemblance to Britain can be quite superficial, but easy for a casual visitor to make. I could live quite happily in either country, but there are dozens of others that I could happily live in too, from Austria to Malawi, Malaysia to Mexico.

    I wonder if those extolling the Britishness of NZ would recognise this side of NZ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/03/new-zealand-vaccines-gang-leaders-unite-covid-shots

    I don't think either NZ or Australia are close to being British. And they would absolutely hate to be described in such terms. Nowhere in Britain is either. Britishness does not exist as a singular concept. How can it when we are so different within our own island?

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,295
    Alistair said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Fivethirtyeight I've noticed do seem to like trying to be super clever in their election analysis, coming up with all sorts of angles and endlessly looking for a more nuanced, alternative take. I guess they need to write stories.

    But the story of Virginia at least seems to be: " in a state that voted for Biden by 10 points, voters said in exit polls that they were evenly divided in who they voted for in 2020".

    So either a lot of people have switched and are misremembering... or... much more likely... more democrats stayed at home vs. republicans. Simple and classic issue for the Dems in off-years.

    Yes, 538's main problem with their non-hard numbers based analysis is that it is dripping with "savvy", inside baseball, takes that do not stand up to even the slightest scrutiny.
    Yes, it's amazing how what started as a data-driven journalism project has actually morphed into this. Obviously still good stuff on there, but I guess the real function of that inside baseball stuff is that it drives clicks and attention.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    - "I dispute that."

    - "Well the facts and the figures show it."

    - "Again, I dispute that."

    - "Shall I read them?"

    - "You can read what you like."
    https://twitter.com/camanpour/status/1455608502936817667

    He's right to dispute it, cases are not spiking. Whatever facts and figure Amanpour is reading [which she doesn't go on to read] are wrong and the PM is right.

    Under what definition of the word "spiking" can a 10% Week on Week reduction in cases be "spiking"?

    Cases have been falling for two weeks now, they peaked on 18 October, how is that "spiking"?


  • IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    It’s a fairly meaningless exercise to compare England with other countries, as it’s quite unique. It’s like saying France is like Italy. Well up to a point, but it’s not really like Italy. Italy is like Italy and France is like France.

    England is sod all like New Zealand for all that it is more like New Zealand than it is, say, Eritrea.

    It's not meaningless. For example, it tells you where you could be happy as an expat

    I had this debate with a Swiss businessman when I was in Switzerland in September. His thesis was that "you can never be truly comfortable or at ease in any country other than your own". He was speaking as a worldly Swiss man who has lived in multiple countries

    I disagreed. I told him as a Brit I felt entirely at home in Australia. At ease. I know the language, the sports, the politics, the jokes, I get virtually all of it. They go down the pub. They argue about cricket. We all know Shakespeare

    Australia is no more alien to me than the Hebrides or north Norfolk. It feels like a unique bit of Britain with a different climate (that is not meant to be patronising)

    Ireland is almost that yet there is something more alien in the culture, which must be the legacy of Catholicism (and, now, EU membership)

    France feels very foreign. Ditto Spain, Germany or Italy. I am not automatically at ease in these countries, beautiful and cultured as they are. I LOVE holidaying in these places, but that is different

    And on that uncontroversial note, goodnight
    You have clearly never spent time in Darwin.
    Good morning fellow PB-=es. Colder this morning; first time I've met cold this winter.

    Australia and New Zealand are like Britain, but 'not quite'. But there again, all of Britain isn't 'alike'. Wales, even the English speaking areas, is different to Essex. And Scotland is different again.
    I think personally that for example Nottingham is more like Melbourne than it is either London or Congleton.
    Remind me never to go to Melbourne.
    We loved Melbourne on our visit
    An unusual example of a city where the suburbs (some, at least) are more attractive than the city centre.
    Like London then, where all the good stuff is in zone 2.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    The weird thing is that the Standards Committee already has a Tory majority, and includes seasoned Brexitard Bernard Jenkin as a member.

    Not good enough for Boris, apparently.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    Scott_xP said:

    - "I dispute that."

    - "Well the facts and the figures show it."

    - "Again, I dispute that."

    - "Shall I read them?"

    - "You can read what you like."
    https://twitter.com/camanpour/status/1455608502936817667

    He's right to dispute it, cases are not spiking. Whatever facts and figure Amanpour is reading [which she doesn't go on to read] are wrong and the PM is right.

    Under what definition of the word "spiking" can a 10% Week on Week reduction in cases be "spiking"?

    Cases have been falling for two weeks now, they peaked on 18 October, how is that "spiking"?


    They are spiking downwards, obviously.
  • MrEd said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Fivethirtyeight I've noticed do seem to like trying to be super clever in their election analysis, coming up with all sorts of angles and endlessly looking for a more nuanced, alternative take. I guess they need to write stories.

    But the story of Virginia at least seems to be: " in a state that voted for Biden by 10 points, voters said in exit polls that they were evenly divided in who they voted for in 2020".

    So either a lot of people have switched and are misremembering... or... much more likely... more democrats stayed at home vs. republicans. Simple and classic issue for the Dems in off-years.

    Possibly, although from what have heard, turnout was unusually high for an off year and McAuliffe actually did better than Biden in some areas. I do genuinely think there was a switch at the independent level from D to R. I don’t think it’s a turnout issue.

    I’m a bit pissed there wasn’t a NJ Governors’ bet I could find. I think Murphy still wins but it will be close.
    NJ Governor
    Dem Murphy 1.05
    Rep Ciattarelli 6
    in a thin market on Betfair
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,783

    Scott_xP said:

    Anyway, glad to see the Tories look at the GOP and see opportunity. This Patterson story just demonstrates the point that Tories think the rules don't apply to them. We've already had senior cabinet ministers found to have broken the ministerial code and being let off by the PM. Then an investigation into the PM doing the same spiked by Number 10 saying they would overrule any findings against the PM. And now Patterson, where they are prepared to rip up the entire parliamentary standards regime to stop his suspension.

    They are going to whip the vote

    Of course they are. This is the government that does not believe it should be subjected to any kind of independent scrutiny. And as they remove fundamental freedoms from British citizens, Tory MPs also vote to ensure that they have full freedom to line their own pockets. This is what happens when a venal, mendacious, grifter is in charge. We are moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy. And, as you see on here, there will always be people who are happy to justify it.

    You're being ridiculous. Just because you go extreme in your criticism doesn't make people not believing your extreme ravings "justifying moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy" (which we're not doing anything of the sort).

    There's been very serious allegations made about the credibility of the report. The proper thing to do would be to allow a neutral appeal process to sort it out, if the appeal confirms the report then he should face punishment. If the appeal shows the report was as alleged deeply flawed, then that should be the end of the matter.

    That some people wish to do away with principles of justice, doesn't make those defending those principles happy to have a quasi-democracy.
    Just checking, have you read the report that you appear to have expended thousands of words upon yet?
    No, its 150 pages, I have absolutely no intention of reading it.

    I have read his criticism of the flaws of the report and they are very serious allegations.

    If he's telling the truth, there should be an appeal to sort it out. If an appeal upholds the report then that's fair enough, if the appeal determines that the report was flawed as alleged then that's fair enough too.

    What's wrong with that? Should nobody ever have the right of appeal?
    But when a French fisherman says he is not being allowed to fish somewhere he says he has always fished you are adamant he is wrong.

    In both cases you might be right, but you make these statements without looking at the evidence.

    As @Dura_Ace put it this site is full of experts on everything, without any actual in depth knowledge.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    Scott_xP said:

    - "I dispute that."

    - "Well the facts and the figures show it."

    - "Again, I dispute that."

    - "Shall I read them?"

    - "You can read what you like."
    https://twitter.com/camanpour/status/1455608502936817667

    Just read some pf the other loony comments on the twitter feed.. you know its going to be trash, but its nice to.have confirmation.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    MrEd said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Fivethirtyeight I've noticed do seem to like trying to be super clever in their election analysis, coming up with all sorts of angles and endlessly looking for a more nuanced, alternative take. I guess they need to write stories.

    But the story of Virginia at least seems to be: " in a state that voted for Biden by 10 points, voters said in exit polls that they were evenly divided in who they voted for in 2020".

    So either a lot of people have switched and are misremembering... or... much more likely... more democrats stayed at home vs. republicans. Simple and classic issue for the Dems in off-years.

    Possibly, although from what have heard, turnout was unusually high for an off year and McAuliffe actually did better than Biden in some areas. I do genuinely think there was a switch at the independent level from D to R. I don’t think it’s a turnout issue.

    I’m a bit pissed there wasn’t a NJ Governors’ bet I could find. I think Murphy still wins but it will be close.
    NJ Governor
    Dem Murphy 1.05
    Rep Ciattarelli 6
    in a thin market on Betfair
    Cheers. I’m obviously going blind.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    Scott_xP said:

    - "I dispute that."

    - "Well the facts and the figures show it."

    - "Again, I dispute that."

    - "Shall I read them?"

    - "You can read what you like."
    https://twitter.com/camanpour/status/1455608502936817667

    He's right to dispute it, cases are not spiking. Whatever facts and figure Amanpour is reading [which she doesn't go on to read] are wrong and the PM is right.

    Under what definition of the word "spiking" can a 10% Week on Week reduction in cases be "spiking"?

    Cases have been falling for two weeks now, they peaked on 18 October, how is that "spiking"?


    I suppose hospital covid inpatients being as numerous as March, and approaching the 10 000 mark. That is about half the first wave peak.
  • Scott_xP said:

    - "I dispute that."

    - "Well the facts and the figures show it."

    - "Again, I dispute that."

    - "Shall I read them?"

    - "You can read what you like."
    https://twitter.com/camanpour/status/1455608502936817667

    She is either lying or stupid. Normally I would be making that comment about Johnson but in this case he happens to be right.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    Bit from me in today's Playbook. Point (2) is a huge concern esp if it sets a precedent for MPs to overturn bullying and harassment decisions

    https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/cop-to-it-standards-stitch-up-briefing-war-continues/ https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1455811937879658498/photo/1
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,907
    edited November 2021
    Looks like a great night for Republicans in the offyear elections last night as they finally can campaign on attacking the Democrats' record in government rather than having to defend the record of Trump as President.

    Not only has Youngkin beaten McAuliffe for the Virginia governorship and the Republicans have won the Virginia House of Delegates and elected a GOP black female former marine as Lieutenant Governor but with 84% of votes in in New Jersey the GOP candidate for governor, Clattarelli is literally tied with Democratic candidate for governor, Murphy, 49.6% each. Literally nobody was predicting that.

    All set up for the GOP at least to retake the House next year in the midterms. When the GOP won the Virginia and NJ governorships in 2009 they did exactly that in 2010
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    edited November 2021
    Nigelb said:

    Amol Rajan doesn't have the right voice for Radio 4.

    His voice is perfectly pleasant, but it's a Radio 5 or One Show voice. When I listen to Radio 4, I expect to hear the presenters enunciate properly.

    Rajan leaves out far too many letters, he uses glottal stops all of the time, he says "yeah" and "gonna" instead of "yes" and "going to", and he just mumbles too much when he tries to speak quickly.

    I'm not a big fan of Toenails, who he's co-presenting with today, but I never have to guess what he's just said. Driving to work yesterday, whenever Mishal Husain was speaking instead of Rajan, I just though "Ah.. yes. Radio 4"

    Mishal Husain and Justin Webb is my Today dream team.

    I disagree.
    Webb is a bit too thick, and Rajan a far more perceptive journalist.
    Rajan has grown on me a lot - he does have a “radio 5” voice but seems the most neutral and intelligent of the presenters and perceptive is the word.

    Webb isn’t the brightest and probably would have been a Cirencester estate agent if he hadn’t become a journalist! Also dull when he gets to cream over some rugby report.

    Hussein is a little bit too certain of her own intelligence and doesn’t seem able to adapt her questioning away from her existing view on the matter under discussion - also bloody annoying when switching from RP to strange pronunciations on certain words such as “Taaaaahlebhaaaan”.

    Kearney is warm and amusing but deceptively bright and adaptable in questioning.

    Robinson drives me up the wall. Used to like him but he is obsessed with trying to find a gotcha question, shouts over interviewees and is embarrassingly excited whenever the words “Manchester United” are uttered or he can drive the conversation onto them. Also i sellers this Manchester accent has grown over the last couple of years and sounds different to his tv days.

    The main sports guy is obsessed with pushing women’s sport and jamming in social issues - it’s a three minute sports report - tell us the results and news about things most sports fans care about.

    The Kiwi who just left who did business was very good and a sad loss.

    Tweet of the day immediately before is great.

    Thank you for letting me get this off my chest!!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,804
    New Jersey remains incredibly close. With 84% of the vote in the Republican Ciattarelli has a lead of about 60 votes:
    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/jerseys-2021-gubernatorial-election-results/story?id=80306513#governor

    Murphy seems to have done a fairly excellent job as governor, not least with Covid. If he is really struggling the Democrats are in deep trouble. I think what is left will favour him and he will make it but unless something changes next year could be a Democratic bloodbath.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Alistair said:

    Gop take contact of of Virgina Hoise of Delegates as well.

    That's really big.

    Gerrymandering and voter suppression next? Stacking the courts? Tax cuts for the rich? All non-Trump GOP SOP.
    No, or at least, not yet. The Democrats still control the Virginia state senate which isn’t up for re-election for another two years.
  • IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    It’s a fairly meaningless exercise to compare England with other countries, as it’s quite unique. It’s like saying France is like Italy. Well up to a point, but it’s not really like Italy. Italy is like Italy and France is like France.

    England is sod all like New Zealand for all that it is more like New Zealand than it is, say, Eritrea.

    It's not meaningless. For example, it tells you where you could be happy as an expat

    I had this debate with a Swiss businessman when I was in Switzerland in September. His thesis was that "you can never be truly comfortable or at ease in any country other than your own". He was speaking as a worldly Swiss man who has lived in multiple countries

    I disagreed. I told him as a Brit I felt entirely at home in Australia. At ease. I know the language, the sports, the politics, the jokes, I get virtually all of it. They go down the pub. They argue about cricket. We all know Shakespeare

    Australia is no more alien to me than the Hebrides or north Norfolk. It feels like a unique bit of Britain with a different climate (that is not meant to be patronising)

    Ireland is almost that yet there is something more alien in the culture, which must be the legacy of Catholicism (and, now, EU membership)

    France feels very foreign. Ditto Spain, Germany or Italy. I am not automatically at ease in these countries, beautiful and cultured as they are. I LOVE holidaying in these places, but that is different

    And on that uncontroversial note, goodnight
    You have clearly never spent time in Darwin.
    Good morning fellow PB-=es. Colder this morning; first time I've met cold this winter.

    Australia and New Zealand are like Britain, but 'not quite'. But there again, all of Britain isn't 'alike'. Wales, even the English speaking areas, is different to Essex. And Scotland is different again.
    I think personally that for example Nottingham is more like Melbourne than it is either London or Congleton.
    Remind me never to go to Melbourne.
    We loved Melbourne on our visit
    An unusual example of a city where the suburbs (some, at least) are more attractive than the city centre.
    We quite liked the city but also the suburbs

    We even went on a neighbours tour visiting ramsay street and the film studios together with meeting a couple of the actors

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited November 2021

    Scott_xP said:

    Anyway, glad to see the Tories look at the GOP and see opportunity. This Patterson story just demonstrates the point that Tories think the rules don't apply to them. We've already had senior cabinet ministers found to have broken the ministerial code and being let off by the PM. Then an investigation into the PM doing the same spiked by Number 10 saying they would overrule any findings against the PM. And now Patterson, where they are prepared to rip up the entire parliamentary standards regime to stop his suspension.

    They are going to whip the vote

    Of course they are. This is the government that does not believe it should be subjected to any kind of independent scrutiny. And as they remove fundamental freedoms from British citizens, Tory MPs also vote to ensure that they have full freedom to line their own pockets. This is what happens when a venal, mendacious, grifter is in charge. We are moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy. And, as you see on here, there will always be people who are happy to justify it.

    You're being ridiculous. Just because you go extreme in your criticism doesn't make people not believing your extreme ravings "justifying moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy" (which we're not doing anything of the sort).

    There's been very serious allegations made about the credibility of the report. The proper thing to do would be to allow a neutral appeal process to sort it out, if the appeal confirms the report then he should face punishment. If the appeal shows the report was as alleged deeply flawed, then that should be the end of the matter.

    That some people wish to do away with principles of justice, doesn't make those defending those principles happy to have a quasi-democracy.
    Just checking, have you read the report that you appear to have expended thousands of words upon yet?
    No, its 150 pages, I have absolutely no intention of reading it.

    I have read his criticism of the flaws of the report and they are very serious allegations.

    If he's telling the truth, there should be an appeal to sort it out. If an appeal upholds the report then that's fair enough, if the appeal determines that the report was flawed as alleged then that's fair enough too.

    What's wrong with that? Should nobody ever have the right of appeal?
    Going on and on and on about the injustices of a report that you haven’t read is peak Phil. Marvellous stuff!
    I'm not "going on and on" about it, I didn't even bring it up, others did. I've said there should be an appeal process to sort it out.

    In your eyes do you think nobody has ever been found guilty by a flawed process and there should never be an appeal process available to anybody, ever?
    If Paterson avoids censure as Conservative MPs whip to stifle a report that appears robust to most except Owen Paterson, it will cap a disturbing week for the Conservative Party. Under the cover of COP26 they have also reinstated the outrageous Rob Roberts.

    Rules are either to be paid lip service to or don't apply at all.
  • rkrkrk said:

    Alistair said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Fivethirtyeight I've noticed do seem to like trying to be super clever in their election analysis, coming up with all sorts of angles and endlessly looking for a more nuanced, alternative take. I guess they need to write stories.

    But the story of Virginia at least seems to be: " in a state that voted for Biden by 10 points, voters said in exit polls that they were evenly divided in who they voted for in 2020".

    So either a lot of people have switched and are misremembering... or... much more likely... more democrats stayed at home vs. republicans. Simple and classic issue for the Dems in off-years.

    Yes, 538's main problem with their non-hard numbers based analysis is that it is dripping with "savvy", inside baseball, takes that do not stand up to even the slightest scrutiny.
    Yes, it's amazing how what started as a data-driven journalism project has actually morphed into this. Obviously still good stuff on there, but I guess the real function of that inside baseball stuff is that it drives clicks and attention.
    otoh concentrating only on the numbers without context has led 538 astray in the past, such as always tipping Brazil to win the World Cup because they did not realise Europe and South America are different.

    From listening to 538 podcasts, I'd say a lot of 538 contributors lean Democrat so perhaps that can lead to an element of wishful thinking.
  • kjh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Anyway, glad to see the Tories look at the GOP and see opportunity. This Patterson story just demonstrates the point that Tories think the rules don't apply to them. We've already had senior cabinet ministers found to have broken the ministerial code and being let off by the PM. Then an investigation into the PM doing the same spiked by Number 10 saying they would overrule any findings against the PM. And now Patterson, where they are prepared to rip up the entire parliamentary standards regime to stop his suspension.

    They are going to whip the vote

    Of course they are. This is the government that does not believe it should be subjected to any kind of independent scrutiny. And as they remove fundamental freedoms from British citizens, Tory MPs also vote to ensure that they have full freedom to line their own pockets. This is what happens when a venal, mendacious, grifter is in charge. We are moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy. And, as you see on here, there will always be people who are happy to justify it.

    You're being ridiculous. Just because you go extreme in your criticism doesn't make people not believing your extreme ravings "justifying moving rapidly into a quasi-democracy" (which we're not doing anything of the sort).

    There's been very serious allegations made about the credibility of the report. The proper thing to do would be to allow a neutral appeal process to sort it out, if the appeal confirms the report then he should face punishment. If the appeal shows the report was as alleged deeply flawed, then that should be the end of the matter.

    That some people wish to do away with principles of justice, doesn't make those defending those principles happy to have a quasi-democracy.
    Just checking, have you read the report that you appear to have expended thousands of words upon yet?
    No, its 150 pages, I have absolutely no intention of reading it.

    I have read his criticism of the flaws of the report and they are very serious allegations.

    If he's telling the truth, there should be an appeal to sort it out. If an appeal upholds the report then that's fair enough, if the appeal determines that the report was flawed as alleged then that's fair enough too.

    What's wrong with that? Should nobody ever have the right of appeal?
    But when a French fisherman says he is not being allowed to fish somewhere he says he has always fished you are adamant he is wrong.

    In both cases you might be right, but you make these statements without looking at the evidence.

    As @Dura_Ace put it this site is full of experts on everything, without any actual in depth knowledge.
    That's not true at all.

    The French fisherman should be able to provide evidence that they have fished there.

    If a French fisherman is denied a licence despite having provided the required evidence, they I will happily apply the same principle as I do here. I would be happy for the fisherman to be able to appeal a flawed process if they can demonstrate flaws in the process.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,907

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    It’s a fairly meaningless exercise to compare England with other countries, as it’s quite unique. It’s like saying France is like Italy. Well up to a point, but it’s not really like Italy. Italy is like Italy and France is like France.

    England is sod all like New Zealand for all that it is more like New Zealand than it is, say, Eritrea.

    It's not meaningless. For example, it tells you where you could be happy as an expat

    I had this debate with a Swiss businessman when I was in Switzerland in September. His thesis was that "you can never be truly comfortable or at ease in any country other than your own". He was speaking as a worldly Swiss man who has lived in multiple countries

    I disagreed. I told him as a Brit I felt entirely at home in Australia. At ease. I know the language, the sports, the politics, the jokes, I get virtually all of it. They go down the pub. They argue about cricket. We all know Shakespeare

    Australia is no more alien to me than the Hebrides or north Norfolk. It feels like a unique bit of Britain with a different climate (that is not meant to be patronising)

    Ireland is almost that yet there is something more alien in the culture, which must be the legacy of Catholicism (and, now, EU membership)

    France feels very foreign. Ditto Spain, Germany or Italy. I am not automatically at ease in these countries, beautiful and cultured as they are. I LOVE holidaying in these places, but that is different

    And on that uncontroversial note, goodnight
    You have clearly never spent time in Darwin.
    Good morning fellow PB-=es. Colder this morning; first time I've met cold this winter.

    Australia and New Zealand are like Britain, but 'not quite'. But there again, all of Britain isn't 'alike'. Wales, even the English speaking areas, is different to Essex. And Scotland is different again.
    I think personally that for example Nottingham is more like Melbourne than it is either London or Congleton.
    Remind me never to go to Melbourne.
    We loved Melbourne on our visit
    An unusual example of a city where the suburbs (some, at least) are more attractive than the city centre.
    Like London then, where all the good stuff is in zone 2.
    Zone 2 is still inner London, the suburbs are zone 3 and beyond
This discussion has been closed.