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December 2024: A tongue-in-cheek prediction – politicalbetting.com
December 2024: A tongue-in-cheek prediction – politicalbetting.com
The new premier cast her eye across the Cabinet table and took in the empty room. Soon her newly assembled cabinet would gather for the first meeting since the General Election of December 2024.
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Ummm, surely this should read "...for raising interest rates to 3% to try to tackle inflation."
I am very confident in this bet though
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/oct/27/paul-dacre-will-get-second-chance-to-apply-for-ofcom-chair-ministers-confirm
The chutzpath is astonishing.
(edit, I see it already has.)
Islington population density 16,097 / km^2
What figure do you have for Copenhagen that its higher than London?
What I was getting at is that the government is more likely to go to war with the BoE if they raise rates too much. I think the government would rather accept inflation rather than pain to those with mortgages.
Also I'm not sure the damage shown counts as Accidental...
Population (1 January 2021)[3]
• City 799,033
• Density 4,400/km2 (12,000/sq mi)
• Urban 1,336,982
• Urban density 4,600/km2 (12,000/sq mi)
• Metro 2,057,142
• Metro density 1,200/km2 (3,000/sq mi)
For London,
Area
• Total[A] 1,572 km2 (607 sq mi)
• Urban 1,737.9 km2 (671.0 sq mi)
• Metro 8,382 km2 (3,236 sq mi)
• City of London 2.90 km2 (1.12 sq mi)
• Greater London 1,569 km2 (606 sq mi)
Population (2021)[5]
• Total[A] 8,961,989[1]
• Density 5,666/km2 (14,670/sq mi)
• Urban 9,950,000
• Metro 14,257,962
• City of London 8,706
• Greater London 9,425,622
which gives urban density as 5,725/km2 and metro density as 1,700/km2
They have "Labour poll lead before 2 November" (1.2 no, 4.7 yes) but this is the only one I can see.
@CorrectHorseBattery - please can you confirm. You may have £3k on 2 Nov rather than end of year? If so you only have six days - not impossible, but ...
There's a huge amount of work to do on unravelling infrastructure modes, which needs funding (if we are into hypothecated taxes), or to pay for HS2B (Boris having used the money to inflate the housing market, and to stuff nimbies mouths with gold
London may be a bit of a canary in the coalmine before long. Mayor Sadiq's latest may raise some ire, but from whom, and will they be a majority?
That would kill off a whole generation of gammonati in one collective paroxysm.
Under Copenhagen Metropolitan Area it says 725/km^2 which is where I got my figure from.
Well hidden, indeed.
Great knockabout stuff from @rottenborough
Reeves looks and sounds like a leader. Dressed for business rather than teaching primary school; nice deep voice like post-elocution Thatcher; no sibilance like Nandy; can deliver a joke; can think on her feet. Policies unneeded in this post-truth age.
As noted on the last thread, Bet365 cut her from 16/1 into 7/1.
Let's see how she gets through the budget debate next.
I think the last date for an election under reinstated royal prerogative would be early 2025, iirc, not December 24 as commonly presumed, I think dissolution is the thing that has to take place within 5 years. But I could be remembering wrong.
I also think that if the polls turn bad Boris knows he has another 63 in majority to defend if he can jettison Scotland and NI in good time. If the polls turned terrible this winter, I think he is venal enough to grant Sindyref2 for personal convenience. (Whether the loss of Scotland in addition to all else would just provoke an even bigger backlash may not occur to the chancer).
It is like when I said the purpose of HS2 was to build London Birmingham David Attenborough (Electric) Airport and some scamp's riposte was to suggest London Wolverhampton Walter Mitty Airport.
Because if the Conservatives lose from their starting point, it will be down to them having failed rather than any brilliance by the opposition. But then you look at graphs like this one;
And it's not hard to see how the government can lose.
(And for those who reasonably point out how well EICINPM was doing in 2012-3ish, check out the boomlet in 2014-15. Looks like that saved Cameron's bacon, so to speak.)
Definitely one to watch.
And, without very much happening (lots of noise but not much that's obviously permanently cut through), the gap has been closing by a couple of points a month since June (C down about 1.4 points, L up about 0.6 points a month).
Density is really just a starting point on a proper analysis.
If they don't take some seats off the SNP then their targets need to look at seats that are up to 150th on their list. For example Basingstoke, requiring a 12.97% swing, 148th on the list. JRM' s seat would also have to be in the frame.
We could do loads worse than a Labour government led by Rachel Reeves and her all women cabinet, but it is still a Black Swan. It won't happen.
Back in reality, Labour have a much tougher sell: We can't win, but the centre left Labour led alliance government, with all the instability of the SNP as part of it, is better than a Tory government.
For myself, I would vote for the first, which can't happen, but not the second, which easily could.
This is Labour's real dilemma.
Stranger things have happened!
Covid cases and deaths scaled almost perfectly with density through the pandemic in like for like areas.
Eagle-eyed @nickeardleybbc has spotted that the draught tax cut only applies if kegs are larger than 40 litres. Most crafties distribute in a smaller barrel - like these, called pony kegs, which are about 30L. So I don't think these kegs from today's photoshoot would qualify https://twitter.com/silvesterldn/status/1453391623975493635/photo/1
(I suspect that's mutual tbf 😂)
It isn't going to Labour.
Surely not, I suspect she speaks very highly and wistfully of you!
And how much of the big boost in Departmental spending is going to go on public sector pay? Quite a lot I suspect.
(*What is an infinitesimally small chance multiplied by an infinitesimally small chance anyway?)
I imagine higher rates of cycling help, at least, versus sitting on the tube/train/bus to travel to work. There's probably more aspects to this than we can imagine, some of which will be driven by local-scale densities (but probably not wide-scale densities, is my guess).
Take a look at a satellite view of Copenhagen. Scroll south to the island of Amager, and look at the west side of it. Huge areas of empty land (reclaimed from the sea, as it happens, and only recently-ish opened to the public after being a firing range for a long time) That empty spaces lowers the density by adding to the area, but what it really means is that everyone who lives around it, see Islandsbrygge, is crowded into large apartment buildings. So the "density" that counts here is on the street level.
This is why bulk densities are largely worthless. What matters is how frequently people are in contact with others, and under what conditions.
Swipes 4% from GDP (pandemic 2%)
(don’t expect anyone in govt (or Labour) to start talking about this self-mutilation)
https://twitter.com/Rob_Merrick/status/1453395830069682183
It has the second lowest death rate per 100,000 people.
When I do Spearman's rank correlation on regions by population vs regions by deaths-> the coefficient is 0.0833...
I.e. basically no relationship.
Not even remotely possible to be fair
I doubt either would remember me at all, especially as the first was about 35 years ago and the second about 25 years ago!
And for that matter, we would have said the same in 2010 for D J Trump to become POTUS 😬
There's still time though, graphic here if you need it
https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1453396533223829510?s=20