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Time for budget bingo – will Sunak say these words/phrases? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,326

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    geoffw said:

    Farooq said:

    Thank God schools don’t bother with royal history now. I can think of almost nothing more tedious.

    It's slightly useful to give you a hook onto which you can hang the interesting history. For instance, the history of the church pivots on Henry VIII and the reason Alfred burned the cakes, if that even happened, was because he was on the run from the Danes. So it all links in. That said, you're right. It's dull as fuck just on its own.
    Move over history, it's herstory now.

    As in, herstory is nearly finished?
    Move over, Babs. It's time for Charles the Thick.
    Charles is not thick, in fact he will probably be our brightest monarch since Edward VIIth and our first Oxbridge graduate on the throne since his great great grandfather too who also had a reasonable but short reign overshadowed by that of his mother and son
    So you're saying the queen is thick? To the tower with you, young man. To the tower.
    Not thick, just not an intellectual like Charles
    Charles really isn’t that bright. He’s moderately intelligent, well read but few original thoughts. So much like the average person.
    The top royals have access to the more interesting people in society. But they don’t all make best use of it. See Harry. Charlie however proved himself decades ahead of the curve on the environment, the biggest global problem of the early 21st Century, and arguably too on housing policy.

    I don’t care much for the royal family as an institution but I’m quite looking forward to seeing what Charles will make of the role. Far more so than his nice but dim son.
    Yes, he may well be quite a good King.

    Not that we get any say in the matter. Its a close call that we are not having Prince Andrew as King.
    Would take a hell of an accident to get Andrew back to number one in the line of succession.
    Sooner or later we will get a really unpopular monarch, like Andrew. How many here would remain monarchists and grit their teeth for 20-30 years of King Andrew of equivalent? The system requires you to take the rough with the smooth.
  • Options

    Ten O'Clock News - Big_G was absolutely right. Dishi has leaked that they are lifting the pay freeze on the poor sods who worked in critical public services throughout the pox.

    But won't say by how much.

    Or give even a suggestion about where this how much will come for.

    Until next year. So its a budget leak of a "pledge" that isn't costed. Isn't happening. But people absolutely should vote for possible jam next year.

    I take it all back.

    That was announced yesterday and subject to the pay review body recommendations
  • Options

    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Third like Charles

    Changing name on becoming king would be such an act of unforced out of touch wankerdom that I am pretty certain he'll do it and be Edward 9 or something.
    George VII would be favourite.

    Charles has unfortunate links to regicides and adulterers, Philip is complicated by the fact nobody is sure whether the other King Philip counts in regnal numbers, and all the Arthurs died before they could take the throne.
    Links to adulterers? I understood it was a bit closer to home than that!

    (Allegedly etc. My main source is 'The Crown')
    Charles II was OK, wasn't he? Restoration, Royal Society and all that?
    he brought back partying!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FA5abHKvUBQ
  • Options
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    geoffw said:

    Farooq said:

    Thank God schools don’t bother with royal history now. I can think of almost nothing more tedious.

    It's slightly useful to give you a hook onto which you can hang the interesting history. For instance, the history of the church pivots on Henry VIII and the reason Alfred burned the cakes, if that even happened, was because he was on the run from the Danes. So it all links in. That said, you're right. It's dull as fuck just on its own.
    Move over history, it's herstory now.

    As in, herstory is nearly finished?
    Move over, Babs. It's time for Charles the Thick.
    Charles is not thick, in fact he will probably be our brightest monarch since Edward VIIth and our first Oxbridge graduate on the throne since his great great grandfather too who also had a reasonable but short reign overshadowed by that of his mother and son
    So you're saying the queen is thick? To the tower with you, young man. To the tower.
    Not thick, just not an intellectual like Charles
    Charles really isn’t that bright. He’s moderately intelligent, well read but few original thoughts. So much like the average person.
    The top royals have access to the more interesting people in society. But they don’t all make best use of it. See Harry. Charlie however proved himself decades ahead of the curve on the environment, the biggest global problem of the early 21st Century, and arguably too on housing policy.

    I don’t care much for the royal family as an institution but I’m quite looking forward to seeing what Charles will make of the role. Far more so than his nice but dim son.
    Yes, he may well be quite a good King.

    Not that we get any say in the matter. Its a close call that we are not having Prince Andrew as King.
    Would take a hell of an accident to get Andrew back to number one in the line of succession.
    No, but a horse riding accident in the 1970s or similar would have done it.
    No need to be so rude about Princess Anne.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    I think what makes learning about royal history boring is all those numbers. Which one was Edward VI again, son of Henry VII or was it VIII?

    I think we should bring back the nicknames. We've had Longshanks, Ironside, The Unready. Let's bring that back.

    The French did it too. We had Charles the Hammer, so let's have our very own tribute to that... Charles the Spanner.
  • Options
    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,814
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the budget there is a real cat and mouse game going on. The government hold the Commons in absolute contempt, used to blame Bercow for raising opposition and surely will soon start casting aspersions on Hoyle.

    Mister Speaker - as the previous title-holder demonstrated - has a wide range of measures available. Whilst Holye - unlike Bercow - isn't likely to make up rules as they go along and freestyle, there are swathes of rules he can deploy to smash down the government.

    It will be interesting to watch when this undoubtedly escalates into open warfare. The Leader of the House used to be the affable chap always quoting Erskine May to defend the rights of backbenchers against the government. How will he object to that very principle being slapped in his face...?

    'Smashed down the government' - bit over the top

    HMG should respect Parliament but the leaks have happened under every government.

    I expect Hoyle will have a go before the statement then the budget will dominate the agenda until COP26

    Bit over the top? The Spectator suggests that the Deputy Speaker simply thank Dishi for his Budget statement when he stands up and hands over to Starmer. And she could.

    Leaks have never - ever - happened on this scale for the budget. The entire budget. Briefed to the press. So that they had 3 days to report the juiciest sections.
    If Starmer's speech team are any good, the leaks ought to make his impossible job much easier. He knows what he's replying to.

    Admittedly, that's a fairly big if.

    Meanwhile, LBC are flagging the student loan thing (i.e. a tax rise that isn't technically a tax rise and magically only affects younger people)... That's not on, is it?
    As HYUFD will point out, young people generally do not vote Tory and are therefore fair game. If they didn't want to be taxed to death they should have voted Tory in 2019 - especially all the ones who were too young. If they had the best interests of the country would stop them now being taxed to death.
    In more seriousness, I’m 48, and not personally affected by this.
    But those arseholes are fucking over my daughters.

    If this does come to pass, I will be angrier with them than for a long time. But it will only last as long as my kids are affected. So, a little over forty years, if the rumours are true.
    And the Tories are going to be hoping that people will migrate to voting for them during the years that they are fucking them over.

    The Tories have not won under 35s since 1987.

    The Tories can win a majority as long as they win most over 45s and probably hold onto power as long as they win over 50s. Even now most people get on the property ladder by 40. They then have assets and so income taxes are less of an issue as they also have an asset's value to protect.

    I doubt Rishi will raise income tax however and I hope he does not
    28 year olds will be 38 in ten years time.
    Ten years later, they will be 48. And with still nearly 15 years left to pay, because the Tories will have retrospectively changed the terms of their loan.

    In the past, people have tended to migrate towards the Tories as they age. In the future, they will have far more reason not to migrate.

    Those who graduated before 2012 will be a diminishing share of the electorate.
    And, of course, parents of those (such as myself) will also be angry.
    And I already have a house, so the Tories don’t have anything to hold out for me. Fuck them.
    They may well be 38 in ten years time, however the Tories can still win a majority even if most of them vote Labour as long as they win most over 45s. Even when they get to 48 and even if most still vote Labour the Tories can still likely win most seats as long as they win most over 50s.

    In the past people have migrated to the Tories as they buy property, they still do today. The one exception was Blair in 1997 who won every generation including over 65s but that was a once in a century landslide defeat for the Tories unlikely ever to be repeated in my lifetime

    And when they’re 52 and would formerly be free of student loan debt and now have ten extra years to go, you think they’ll lunge for the Tories?

    I’ve got property, yet, mysteriously, I have no extra attraction to the Tories. Why should I? What benefit do I get from them? I’ve got my house now.

    Although if people don’t get free of student debt until they’re in their sixties, that’ll affect how much money they have to spend on property.

    And, of course, it’s not winner-takes-all in age groups. If you shift from, say, 45-40 behind in and age group to 55-30 behind, it’s not as if it’s no effect, even though you were losing before and would be losing again.
    By then Labour would likely have been in power and have removed it but the assets they have to protect will outweigh in terms of house value the remaining student loan debt left.

    As far as I can see you are an ideological leftwinger who would never vote Tory, so atypical, I am an ideological rightwinger who voted Tory even as a student, so atypical, I am talking the average voter.

    Nope.
    I voted Tory in 2005 and 2010. And supported the Coalition.
    Most of those who know me would laugh like a drain to hear me described as “an ideological leftwinger.”

    I can expound for hours on the superiority of free markets over state control. If pushed, I would have voted anyone-but-Corbyn both of the last two times. Someone who would be identified on any political spectrum as “Orange Book Liberal or Cameroon Conservative” is NOT who you should be pushing away.

    And describing as an “ideological leftwinger…” Heh.
    That’s funny. I think you tend to identify everyone who disagrees with you as that.
    So you voted Tory when they lost in 2005 and failed to win a majority in 2010 but did not vote Tory when they won majorities in 2015 and 2019. So again you are atypical.

    If you prefer free markets to state control that can just make you a liberal, it does not mean you are a Tory.

    We won a majority of 80 in 2019 when most Orange Book Liberals voted LD as did plenty of Cameron Conservatives because we won UKIP 2015 voters and Labour Leavers.

    According to your implied definition, only the swingiest of swing voters are “typical”
    Your definition has typical voters being a small minority.
    But I doubt you can even recognise that.

    Or that you’ve effectively acknowledged that for parents to ensure their children don’t lose out in life, they have to ensure the Tories are defeated.

    Not that the Tories would suddenly be flavour of the month after their policy is overturned or they lose power.

    Traditionally, the Lib Dems got students. Like traditionally the Tories got people as they aged. Traditions break.

    Just ask Nick Clegg or the Lib Dems how quick it is to be forgiven after screwing over students.
    Normally Labour got students actually, they just went LD under Charles Kennedy in 2005 and in 2010 in a brief protest over Blair's fees. They are back voting Labour again.

    As I pointed out similarly over 55s normally voted Tory but voted for Blair in 1997, then went back to voting Tory again and still vote Tory now
    The student vote was once a decent chunk of the Lib Dem vote. It no longer is. Unless you believe that a similar proportion of them vote Lib Dem in 2017 or 2019 as did in, say, 2001 (24% of 18-24s) or 1997 (16% of 18-24s).

    And I’m pointing out that if you piss on 55-year-olds for forty years, you should not expect them to have quite the attraction for you that they used to do.
    You seem intent on wanting to believe that they will miraculously forgive and forget everything when they hit a certain point in their lives.
    Just because things have happened before doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to happen again. Not if you change the input conditions.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,148
    Selebian said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the budget there is a real cat and mouse game going on. The government hold the Commons in absolute contempt, used to blame Bercow for raising opposition and surely will soon start casting aspersions on Hoyle.

    Mister Speaker - as the previous title-holder demonstrated - has a wide range of measures available. Whilst Holye - unlike Bercow - isn't likely to make up rules as they go along and freestyle, there are swathes of rules he can deploy to smash down the government.

    It will be interesting to watch when this undoubtedly escalates into open warfare. The Leader of the House used to be the affable chap always quoting Erskine May to defend the rights of backbenchers against the government. How will he object to that very principle being slapped in his face...?

    'Smashed down the government' - bit over the top

    HMG should respect Parliament but the leaks have happened under every government.

    I expect Hoyle will have a go before the statement then the budget will dominate the agenda until COP26

    Bit over the top? The Spectator suggests that the Deputy Speaker simply thank Dishi for his Budget statement when he stands up and hands over to Starmer. And she could.

    Leaks have never - ever - happened on this scale for the budget. The entire budget. Briefed to the press. So that they had 3 days to report the juiciest sections.
    If Starmer's speech team are any good, the leaks ought to make his impossible job much easier. He knows what he's replying to.

    Admittedly, that's a fairly big if.

    Meanwhile, LBC are flagging the student loan thing (i.e. a tax rise that isn't technically a tax rise and magically only affects younger people)... That's not on, is it?
    As HYUFD will point out, young people generally do not vote Tory and are therefore fair game. If they didn't want to be taxed to death they should have voted Tory in 2019 - especially all the ones who were too young. If they had the best interests of the country would stop them now being taxed to death.
    In more seriousness, I’m 48, and not personally affected by this.
    But those arseholes are fucking over my daughters.

    If this does come to pass, I will be angrier with them than for a long time. But it will only last as long as my kids are affected. So, a little over forty years, if the rumours are true.
    And the Tories are going to be hoping that people will migrate to voting for them during the years that they are fucking them over.

    The Tories have not won under 35s since 1987.

    The Tories can win a majority as long as they win most over 45s and probably hold onto power as long as they win over 50s. Even now most people get on the property ladder by 40. They then have assets and so income taxes are less of an issue as they also have an asset's value to protect.

    I doubt Rishi will raise income tax however and I hope he does not
    28 year olds will be 38 in ten years time.
    Ten years later, they will be 48. And with still nearly 15 years left to pay, because the Tories will have retrospectively changed the terms of their loan.

    In the past, people have tended to migrate towards the Tories as they age. In the future, they will have far more reason not to migrate.

    Those who graduated before 2012 will be a diminishing share of the electorate.
    And, of course, parents of those (such as myself) will also be angry.
    And I already have a house, so the Tories don’t have anything to hold out for me. Fuck them.
    They may well be 38 in ten years time, however the Tories can still win a majority even if most of them vote Labour as long as they win most over 45s. Even when they get to 48 and even if most still vote Labour the Tories can still likely win most seats as long as they win most over 50s.

    In the past people have migrated to the Tories as they buy property, they still do today. The one exception was Blair in 1997 who won every generation including over 65s but that was a once in a century landslide defeat for the Tories unlikely ever to be repeated in my lifetime

    And when they’re 52 and would formerly be free of student loan debt and now have ten extra years to go, you think they’ll lunge for the Tories?

    I’ve got property, yet, mysteriously, I have no extra attraction to the Tories. Why should I? What benefit do I get from them? I’ve got my house now.

    Although if people don’t get free of student debt until they’re in their sixties, that’ll affect how much money they have to spend on property.

    And, of course, it’s not winner-takes-all in age groups. If you shift from, say, 45-40 behind in and age group to 55-30 behind, it’s not as if it’s no effect, even though you were losing before and would be losing again.
    By then Labour would likely have been in power and have removed it but the assets they have to protect will outweigh in terms of house value the remaining student loan debt left.

    As far as I can see you are an ideological leftwinger who would never vote Tory, so atypical, I am an ideological rightwinger who voted Tory even as a student, so atypical, I am talking the average voter.

    Nope.
    I voted Tory in 2005 and 2010. And supported the Coalition.
    Most of those who know me would laugh like a drain to hear me described as “an ideological leftwinger.”

    I can expound for hours on the superiority of free markets over state control. If pushed, I would have voted anyone-but-Corbyn both of the last two times. Someone who would be identified on any political spectrum as “Orange Book Liberal or Cameroon Conservative” is NOT who you should be pushing away.

    And describing as an “ideological leftwinger…” Heh.
    That’s funny. I think you tend to identify everyone who disagrees with you as that.
    If you meet a left-winger, then you've met a left-winger.
    If you meet left-wingers all day, then maybe you're a little too right-wing?

    With apologies to Raylan Givens.
    In my case it’s mainly because I work at University...😀
    How odd. My university colleagues are all very centrist, but I do find everyone else I meet to be insufferably right wing :wink:
    I occasionally help out with the local Lions club. The contrast in attitudes between my university colleagues and the collection of mostly older, white, retired Lions is stark. Put it this way, very different opinions about Brexit.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the budget there is a real cat and mouse game going on. The government hold the Commons in absolute contempt, used to blame Bercow for raising opposition and surely will soon start casting aspersions on Hoyle.

    Mister Speaker - as the previous title-holder demonstrated - has a wide range of measures available. Whilst Holye - unlike Bercow - isn't likely to make up rules as they go along and freestyle, there are swathes of rules he can deploy to smash down the government.

    It will be interesting to watch when this undoubtedly escalates into open warfare. The Leader of the House used to be the affable chap always quoting Erskine May to defend the rights of backbenchers against the government. How will he object to that very principle being slapped in his face...?

    'Smashed down the government' - bit over the top

    HMG should respect Parliament but the leaks have happened under every government.

    I expect Hoyle will have a go before the statement then the budget will dominate the agenda until COP26

    Bit over the top? The Spectator suggests that the Deputy Speaker simply thank Dishi for his Budget statement when he stands up and hands over to Starmer. And she could.

    Leaks have never - ever - happened on this scale for the budget. The entire budget. Briefed to the press. So that they had 3 days to report the juiciest sections.
    If Starmer's speech team are any good, the leaks ought to make his impossible job much easier. He knows what he's replying to.

    Admittedly, that's a fairly big if.

    Meanwhile, LBC are flagging the student loan thing (i.e. a tax rise that isn't technically a tax rise and magically only affects younger people)... That's not on, is it?
    As HYUFD will point out, young people generally do not vote Tory and are therefore fair game. If they didn't want to be taxed to death they should have voted Tory in 2019 - especially all the ones who were too young. If they had the best interests of the country would stop them now being taxed to death.
    In more seriousness, I’m 48, and not personally affected by this.
    But those arseholes are fucking over my daughters.

    If this does come to pass, I will be angrier with them than for a long time. But it will only last as long as my kids are affected. So, a little over forty years, if the rumours are true.
    And the Tories are going to be hoping that people will migrate to voting for them during the years that they are fucking them over.

    The Tories have not won under 35s since 1987.

    The Tories can win a majority as long as they win most over 45s and probably hold onto power as long as they win over 50s. Even now most people get on the property ladder by 40. They then have assets and so income taxes are less of an issue as they also have an asset's value to protect.

    I doubt Rishi will raise income tax however and I hope he does not
    28 year olds will be 38 in ten years time.
    Ten years later, they will be 48. And with still nearly 15 years left to pay, because the Tories will have retrospectively changed the terms of their loan.

    In the past, people have tended to migrate towards the Tories as they age. In the future, they will have far more reason not to migrate.

    Those who graduated before 2012 will be a diminishing share of the electorate.
    And, of course, parents of those (such as myself) will also be angry.
    And I already have a house, so the Tories don’t have anything to hold out for me. Fuck them.
    They may well be 38 in ten years time, however the Tories can still win a majority even if most of them vote Labour as long as they win most over 45s. Even when they get to 48 and even if most still vote Labour the Tories can still likely win most seats as long as they win most over 50s.

    In the past people have migrated to the Tories as they buy property, they still do today. The one exception was Blair in 1997 who won every generation including over 65s but that was a once in a century landslide defeat for the Tories unlikely ever to be repeated in my lifetime

    And when they’re 52 and would formerly be free of student loan debt and now have ten extra years to go, you think they’ll lunge for the Tories?

    I’ve got property, yet, mysteriously, I have no extra attraction to the Tories. Why should I? What benefit do I get from them? I’ve got my house now.

    Although if people don’t get free of student debt until they’re in their sixties, that’ll affect how much money they have to spend on property.

    And, of course, it’s not winner-takes-all in age groups. If you shift from, say, 45-40 behind in and age group to 55-30 behind, it’s not as if it’s no effect, even though you were losing before and would be losing again.
    By then Labour would likely have been in power and have removed it but the assets they have to protect will outweigh in terms of house value the remaining student loan debt left.

    As far as I can see you are an ideological leftwinger who would never vote Tory, so atypical, I am an ideological rightwinger who voted Tory even as a student, so atypical, I am talking the average voter.

    Nope.
    I voted Tory in 2005 and 2010. And supported the Coalition.
    Most of those who know me would laugh like a drain to hear me described as “an ideological leftwinger.”

    I can expound for hours on the superiority of free markets over state control. If pushed, I would have voted anyone-but-Corbyn both of the last two times. Someone who would be identified on any political spectrum as “Orange Book Liberal or Cameroon Conservative” is NOT who you should be pushing away.

    And describing as an “ideological leftwinger…” Heh.
    That’s funny. I think you tend to identify everyone who disagrees with you as that.
    So you voted Tory when they lost in 2005 and failed to win a majority in 2010 but did not vote Tory when they won majorities in 2015 and 2019. So again you are atypical.

    If you prefer free markets to state control that can just make you a liberal, it does not mean you are a Tory.

    We won a majority of 80 in 2019 when most Orange Book Liberals voted LD as did plenty of Cameron Conservatives because we won UKIP 2015 voters and Labour Leavers.

    According to your implied definition, only the swingiest of swing voters are “typical”
    Your definition has typical voters being a small minority.
    But I doubt you can even recognise that.

    Or that you’ve effectively acknowledged that for parents to ensure their children don’t lose out in life, they have to ensure the Tories are defeated.

    Not that the Tories would suddenly be flavour of the month after their policy is overturned or they lose power.

    Traditionally, the Lib Dems got students. Like traditionally the Tories got people as they aged. Traditions break.

    Just ask Nick Clegg or the Lib Dems how quick it is to be forgiven after screwing over students.
    Normally Labour got students actually, they just went LD under Charles Kennedy in 2005 and in 2010 in a brief protest over Blair's fees. They are back voting Labour again.

    As I pointed out similarly over 55s normally voted Tory but voted for Blair in 1997, then went back to voting Tory again and still vote Tory now
    I am not voting conservative unless they win my vote back, but then you have already excommunicated me along with many more who do not share your 1950 Little Englander outlook
    Unless you demand the interning of British Citizens abroad for their crime of worshipping the wrong God or having the wrong genes, you aren't worthy of the Essicks Massiv.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,576

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    geoffw said:

    Farooq said:

    Thank God schools don’t bother with royal history now. I can think of almost nothing more tedious.

    It's slightly useful to give you a hook onto which you can hang the interesting history. For instance, the history of the church pivots on Henry VIII and the reason Alfred burned the cakes, if that even happened, was because he was on the run from the Danes. So it all links in. That said, you're right. It's dull as fuck just on its own.
    Move over history, it's herstory now.

    As in, herstory is nearly finished?
    Move over, Babs. It's time for Charles the Thick.
    Charles is not thick, in fact he will probably be our brightest monarch since Edward VIIth and our first Oxbridge graduate on the throne since his great great grandfather too who also had a reasonable but short reign overshadowed by that of his mother and son
    So you're saying the queen is thick? To the tower with you, young man. To the tower.
    Not thick, just not an intellectual like Charles
    Charles really isn’t that bright. He’s moderately intelligent, well read but few original thoughts. So much like the average person.
    The top royals have access to the more interesting people in society. But they don’t all make best use of it. See Harry. Charlie however proved himself decades ahead of the curve on the environment, the biggest global problem of the early 21st Century, and arguably too on housing policy.

    I don’t care much for the royal family as an institution but I’m quite looking forward to seeing what Charles will make of the role. Far more so than his nice but dim son.
    Yes, he may well be quite a good King.

    Not that we get any say in the matter. Its a close call that we are not having Prince Andrew as King.
    Would take a hell of an accident to get Andrew back to number one in the line of succession.
    Sooner or later we will get a really unpopular monarch, like Andrew. How many here would remain monarchists and grit their teeth for 20-30 years of King Andrew of equivalent? The system requires you to take the rough with the smooth.
    George IV was pelted by the London Mob when out in his carriage I believe.
  • Options
    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Third like Charles

    Changing name on becoming king would be such an act of unforced out of touch wankerdom that I am pretty certain he'll do it and be Edward 9 or something.
    George VII would be favourite.

    Charles has unfortunate links to regicides and adulterers, Philip is complicated by the fact nobody is sure whether the other King Philip counts in regnal numbers, and all the Arthurs died before they could take the throne.
    Links to adulterers? I understood it was a bit closer to home than that!

    (Allegedly etc. My main source is 'The Crown')
    Wouldn't the person someone commits adultery with also be an adulterer?
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    geoffw said:

    Farooq said:

    Thank God schools don’t bother with royal history now. I can think of almost nothing more tedious.

    It's slightly useful to give you a hook onto which you can hang the interesting history. For instance, the history of the church pivots on Henry VIII and the reason Alfred burned the cakes, if that even happened, was because he was on the run from the Danes. So it all links in. That said, you're right. It's dull as fuck just on its own.
    Move over history, it's herstory now.

    As in, herstory is nearly finished?
    Move over, Babs. It's time for Charles the Thick.
    Charles is not thick, in fact he will probably be our brightest monarch since Edward VIIth and our first Oxbridge graduate on the throne since his great great grandfather too who also had a reasonable but short reign overshadowed by that of his mother and son
    So you're saying the queen is thick? To the tower with you, young man. To the tower.
    Not thick, just not an intellectual like Charles
    Charles really isn’t that bright. He’s moderately intelligent, well read but few original thoughts. So much like the average person.
    The top royals have access to the more interesting people in society. But they don’t all make best use of it. See Harry. Charlie however proved himself decades ahead of the curve on the environment, the biggest global problem of the early 21st Century, and arguably too on housing policy.

    I don’t care much for the royal family as an institution but I’m quite looking forward to seeing what Charles will make of the role. Far more so than his nice but dim son.
    Yes, he may well be quite a good King.

    Not that we get any say in the matter. Its a close call that we are not having Prince Andrew as King.
    Would take a hell of an accident to get Andrew back to number one in the line of succession.
    No, but a horse riding accident in the 1970s or similar would have done it.
    The Saxons had it right in choosing the most suitable heir for the job and buying off the rest. It was the bastard from normandy that insisted on the roulette of primogeniture.

    Can you imagine if Randy was the one limbering up on the touch line in his tracksuit right now. Ugh.
  • Options
    rpjs said:

    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Third like Charles

    Changing name on becoming king would be such an act of unforced out of touch wankerdom that I am pretty certain he'll do it and be Edward 9 or something.
    George VII would be favourite.

    Charles has unfortunate links to regicides and adulterers, Philip is complicated by the fact nobody is sure whether the other King Philip counts in regnal numbers, and all the Arthurs died before they could take the throne.
    Links to adulterers? I understood it was a bit closer to home than that!

    (Allegedly etc. My main source is 'The Crown')
    Wouldn't the person someone commits adultery with also be an adulterer?
    Not if they do not know
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    edited October 2021
    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    geoffw said:

    Farooq said:

    Thank God schools don’t bother with royal history now. I can think of almost nothing more tedious.

    It's slightly useful to give you a hook onto which you can hang the interesting history. For instance, the history of the church pivots on Henry VIII and the reason Alfred burned the cakes, if that even happened, was because he was on the run from the Danes. So it all links in. That said, you're right. It's dull as fuck just on its own.
    Move over history, it's herstory now.

    As in, herstory is nearly finished?
    Move over, Babs. It's time for Charles the Thick.
    Charles is not thick, in fact he will probably be our brightest monarch since Edward VIIth and our first Oxbridge graduate on the throne since his great great grandfather too who also had a reasonable but short reign overshadowed by that of his mother and son
    So you're saying the queen is thick? To the tower with you, young man. To the tower.
    Not thick, just not an intellectual like Charles
    Charles really isn’t that bright. He’s moderately intelligent, well read but few original thoughts. So much like the average person.
    The top royals have access to the more interesting people in society. But they don’t all make best use of it. See Harry. Charlie however proved himself decades ahead of the curve on the environment, the biggest global problem of the early 21st Century, and arguably too on housing policy.

    I don’t care much for the royal family as an institution but I’m quite looking forward to seeing what Charles will make of the role. Far more so than his nice but dim son.
    Yes, he may well be quite a good King.

    Not that we get any say in the matter. Its a close call that we are not having Prince Andrew as King.
    Would take a hell of an accident to get Andrew back to number one in the line of succession.
    No, but a horse riding accident in the 1970s or similar would have done it.
    The Saxons had it right in choosing the most suitable heir for the job and buying off the rest. It was the bastard from normandy that insisted on the roulette of primogeniture.

    Can you imagine if Randy was the one limbering up on the touch line in his tracksuit right now. Ugh.
    As we are a constitutional monarchy not an absolute monarchy most of us would not notice much difference whoever is monarch.

    It may be better to have more educated and moral monarchs than thick womanisers but we have had plenty of both in our past and often the latter proved better on the battlefield which in the Middle Ages was a key part of their role even if the former proved better in terms of improving the arts and making just laws.

    Andrew may not be an Oxbridge graduate like his older brother but he fought in the Falklands War while Charles never saw combat
  • Options
    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,814
    27-12-23-22-19-16-24-26-30-5-5-9

    (18-24 age share of vote for Lib Dem or predecessor parties since 1974. Nope, no significant change in the last three elections. Can’t see anything there)
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,119
    edited October 2021
    The Tories still getting an absolute hammering over the raw sewage in the oceans and rivers debacle on social media and the news. This is typical of the comment. Nothing to confirm it’s veracity of course. The party media management is totally shambolic.



    https://twitter.com/holnicotenh/status/1452962051211636746?s=21
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,403
    rpjs said:

    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Third like Charles

    Changing name on becoming king would be such an act of unforced out of touch wankerdom that I am pretty certain he'll do it and be Edward 9 or something.
    George VII would be favourite.

    Charles has unfortunate links to regicides and adulterers, Philip is complicated by the fact nobody is sure whether the other King Philip counts in regnal numbers, and all the Arthurs died before they could take the throne.
    Links to adulterers? I understood it was a bit closer to home than that!

    (Allegedly etc. My main source is 'The Crown')
    Wouldn't the person someone commits adultery with also be an adulterer?
    Good question - I'm not sure. If the other person is unmarried then no? Or do I misunderstand the definition?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the budget there is a real cat and mouse game going on. The government hold the Commons in absolute contempt, used to blame Bercow for raising opposition and surely will soon start casting aspersions on Hoyle.

    Mister Speaker - as the previous title-holder demonstrated - has a wide range of measures available. Whilst Holye - unlike Bercow - isn't likely to make up rules as they go along and freestyle, there are swathes of rules he can deploy to smash down the government.

    It will be interesting to watch when this undoubtedly escalates into open warfare. The Leader of the House used to be the affable chap always quoting Erskine May to defend the rights of backbenchers against the government. How will he object to that very principle being slapped in his face...?

    'Smashed down the government' - bit over the top

    HMG should respect Parliament but the leaks have happened under every government.

    I expect Hoyle will have a go before the statement then the budget will dominate the agenda until COP26

    Bit over the top? The Spectator suggests that the Deputy Speaker simply thank Dishi for his Budget statement when he stands up and hands over to Starmer. And she could.

    Leaks have never - ever - happened on this scale for the budget. The entire budget. Briefed to the press. So that they had 3 days to report the juiciest sections.
    If Starmer's speech team are any good, the leaks ought to make his impossible job much easier. He knows what he's replying to.

    Admittedly, that's a fairly big if.

    Meanwhile, LBC are flagging the student loan thing (i.e. a tax rise that isn't technically a tax rise and magically only affects younger people)... That's not on, is it?
    As HYUFD will point out, young people generally do not vote Tory and are therefore fair game. If they didn't want to be taxed to death they should have voted Tory in 2019 - especially all the ones who were too young. If they had the best interests of the country would stop them now being taxed to death.
    In more seriousness, I’m 48, and not personally affected by this.
    But those arseholes are fucking over my daughters.

    If this does come to pass, I will be angrier with them than for a long time. But it will only last as long as my kids are affected. So, a little over forty years, if the rumours are true.
    And the Tories are going to be hoping that people will migrate to voting for them during the years that they are fucking them over.

    The Tories have not won under 35s since 1987.

    The Tories can win a majority as long as they win most over 45s and probably hold onto power as long as they win over 50s. Even now most people get on the property ladder by 40. They then have assets and so income taxes are less of an issue as they also have an asset's value to protect.

    I doubt Rishi will raise income tax however and I hope he does not
    28 year olds will be 38 in ten years time.
    Ten years later, they will be 48. And with still nearly 15 years left to pay, because the Tories will have retrospectively changed the terms of their loan.

    In the past, people have tended to migrate towards the Tories as they age. In the future, they will have far more reason not to migrate.

    Those who graduated before 2012 will be a diminishing share of the electorate.
    And, of course, parents of those (such as myself) will also be angry.
    And I already have a house, so the Tories don’t have anything to hold out for me. Fuck them.
    They may well be 38 in ten years time, however the Tories can still win a majority even if most of them vote Labour as long as they win most over 45s. Even when they get to 48 and even if most still vote Labour the Tories can still likely win most seats as long as they win most over 50s.

    In the past people have migrated to the Tories as they buy property, they still do today. The one exception was Blair in 1997 who won every generation including over 65s but that was a once in a century landslide defeat for the Tories unlikely ever to be repeated in my lifetime

    And when they’re 52 and would formerly be free of student loan debt and now have ten extra years to go, you think they’ll lunge for the Tories?

    I’ve got property, yet, mysteriously, I have no extra attraction to the Tories. Why should I? What benefit do I get from them? I’ve got my house now.

    Although if people don’t get free of student debt until they’re in their sixties, that’ll affect how much money they have to spend on property.

    And, of course, it’s not winner-takes-all in age groups. If you shift from, say, 45-40 behind in and age group to 55-30 behind, it’s not as if it’s no effect, even though you were losing before and would be losing again.
    By then Labour would likely have been in power and have removed it but the assets they have to protect will outweigh in terms of house value the remaining student loan debt left.

    As far as I can see you are an ideological leftwinger who would never vote Tory, so atypical, I am an ideological rightwinger who voted Tory even as a student, so atypical, I am talking the average voter.

    Nope.
    I voted Tory in 2005 and 2010. And supported the Coalition.
    Most of those who know me would laugh like a drain to hear me described as “an ideological leftwinger.”

    I can expound for hours on the superiority of free markets over state control. If pushed, I would have voted anyone-but-Corbyn both of the last two times. Someone who would be identified on any political spectrum as “Orange Book Liberal or Cameroon Conservative” is NOT who you should be pushing away.

    And describing as an “ideological leftwinger…” Heh.
    That’s funny. I think you tend to identify everyone who disagrees with you as that.
    So you voted Tory when they lost in 2005 and failed to win a majority in 2010 but did not vote Tory when they won majorities in 2015 and 2019. So again you are atypical.

    If you prefer free markets to state control that can just make you a liberal, it does not mean you are a Tory.

    We won a majority of 80 in 2019 when most Orange Book Liberals voted LD as did plenty of Cameron Conservatives because we won UKIP 2015 voters and Labour Leavers.

    According to your implied definition, only the swingiest of swing voters are “typical”
    Your definition has typical voters being a small minority.
    But I doubt you can even recognise that.

    Or that you’ve effectively acknowledged that for parents to ensure their children don’t lose out in life, they have to ensure the Tories are defeated.

    Not that the Tories would suddenly be flavour of the month after their policy is overturned or they lose power.

    Traditionally, the Lib Dems got students. Like traditionally the Tories got people as they aged. Traditions break.

    Just ask Nick Clegg or the Lib Dems how quick it is to be forgiven after screwing over students.
    Normally Labour got students actually, they just went LD under Charles Kennedy in 2005 and in 2010 in a brief protest over Blair's fees. They are back voting Labour again.

    As I pointed out similarly over 55s normally voted Tory but voted for Blair in 1997, then went back to voting Tory again and still vote Tory now
    I am not voting conservative unless they win my vote back, but then you have already excommunicated me along with many more who do not share your 1950 Little Englander outlook
    Given you are a former Blair voting Remainer if Starmer cannot even win you back he may as well pack up and go home
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,358
    edited October 2021
    Oooh a new referendum.


    Absolute unalloyed joy.

    The British public are in favour of a referendum on the Government’s net zero proposals, a new poll has shown.

    Forty two per cent of adults said they supported a vote on the plan, whilst 30 per cent opposed it, and 28 per cent did not declare a preference, according to a YouGov survey conducted this month.

    When the “don’t knows” were excluded from the results, a majority of 58 per cent wanted a ballot on the issue.

    The survey showed that of those who expressed a preference, more than 50 per cent of each category polled supported a referendum on net zero. This included 18- to 24-year-olds, middle class voters, Londoners, Remainers, both men and women, and Liberal Democrat backers....

    ....The polling was commissioned by Car26.org, a new campaign group calling for a referendum on net zero proposals and a pause in eco regulations until such a ballot is held.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/10/26/britons-want-referendum-no-10s-net-zero-plans-next-general-election/
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,078
    Taz said:

    The Tories still getting an absolute hammering over the raw sewage in the oceans and rivers debacle on social media and the news. This is typical of the comment. Nothing to confirm it’s veracity of course. The party media management is totally shambolic.



    https://twitter.com/holnicotenh/status/1452962051211636746?s=21

    Con +10
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,148

    Oooh a new referendum.


    Absolute unalloyed joy.

    The British public are in favour of a referendum on the Government’s net zero proposals, a new poll has shown.

    Forty two per cent of adults said they supported a vote on the plan, whilst 30 per cent opposed it, and 28 per cent did not declare a preference, according to a YouGov survey conducted this month.

    When the “don’t knows” were excluded from the results, a majority of 58 per cent wanted a ballot on the issue.

    The survey showed that of those who expressed a preference, more than 50 per cent of each category polled supported a referendum on net zero. This included 18- to 24-year-olds, middle class voters, Londoners, Remainers, both men and women, and Liberal Democrat backers....

    ....The polling was commissioned by Car26.org, a new campaign group calling for a referendum on net zero proposals and a pause in eco regulations until such a ballot is held.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/10/26/britons-want-referendum-no-10s-net-zero-plans-next-general-election/

    52:48 again!!!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    edited October 2021

    27-12-23-22-19-16-24-26-30-5-5-9

    (18-24 age share of vote for Lib Dem or predecessor parties since 1974. Nope, no significant change in the last three elections. Can’t see anything there)

    So Labour won 18-24s in every general election then except 2010 effectively when the LDs won them and then promptly lost them again in 2015 post fees rise, thanks for confirming
  • Options
    Selebian said:

    rpjs said:

    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Third like Charles

    Changing name on becoming king would be such an act of unforced out of touch wankerdom that I am pretty certain he'll do it and be Edward 9 or something.
    George VII would be favourite.

    Charles has unfortunate links to regicides and adulterers, Philip is complicated by the fact nobody is sure whether the other King Philip counts in regnal numbers, and all the Arthurs died before they could take the throne.
    Links to adulterers? I understood it was a bit closer to home than that!

    (Allegedly etc. My main source is 'The Crown')
    Wouldn't the person someone commits adultery with also be an adulterer?
    Good question - I'm not sure. If the other person is unmarried then no? Or do I misunderstand the definition?
    Sometimes the person doesn't know they are committing adultery.

    They don't know the other person is married.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    geoffw said:

    Farooq said:

    Thank God schools don’t bother with royal history now. I can think of almost nothing more tedious.

    It's slightly useful to give you a hook onto which you can hang the interesting history. For instance, the history of the church pivots on Henry VIII and the reason Alfred burned the cakes, if that even happened, was because he was on the run from the Danes. So it all links in. That said, you're right. It's dull as fuck just on its own.
    Move over history, it's herstory now.

    As in, herstory is nearly finished?
    Move over, Babs. It's time for Charles the Thick.
    Charles is not thick, in fact he will probably be our brightest monarch since Edward VIIth and our first Oxbridge graduate on the throne since his great great grandfather too who also had a reasonable but short reign overshadowed by that of his mother and son
    So you're saying the queen is thick? To the tower with you, young man. To the tower.
    Not thick, just not an intellectual like Charles
    Charles really isn’t that bright. He’s moderately intelligent, well read but few original thoughts. So much like the average person.
    The top royals have access to the more interesting people in society. But they don’t all make best use of it. See Harry. Charlie however proved himself decades ahead of the curve on the environment, the biggest global problem of the early 21st Century, and arguably too on housing policy.

    I don’t care much for the royal family as an institution but I’m quite looking forward to seeing what Charles will make of the role. Far more so than his nice but dim son.
    Yes, he may well be quite a good King.

    Not that we get any say in the matter. Its a close call that we are not having Prince Andrew as King.
    Would take a hell of an accident to get Andrew back to number one in the line of succession.
    Sooner or later we will get a really unpopular monarch, like Andrew. How many here would remain monarchists and grit their teeth for 20-30 years of King Andrew of equivalent? The system requires you to take the rough with the smooth.
    The worrying tangent to that is, would we ever know? If a hypothetical King Jimmy was on the throne, routinely abusing his position of trust would it be all hush hush? "Lesser" institutions have bent over backwards done their utmost to brush scandal under the carpet, what would be done for the monarch himself?

    This is the serious reason behind my excitable iconoclasm this evening. We need to get used to imagining these people as venal, stupid, selfish, and corrupt, because there's a strong risk of unchecked ("soft") power falling into the wrong hands. Better to tear down the institution completely; it does nothing for us. But falling short of that, let's assume they're as likely to be worthless tossers as they are paragons of virtue. Just like everyone else.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,119

    Taz said:

    The Tories still getting an absolute hammering over the raw sewage in the oceans and rivers debacle on social media and the news. This is typical of the comment. Nothing to confirm it’s veracity of course. The party media management is totally shambolic.



    https://twitter.com/holnicotenh/status/1452962051211636746?s=21

    Con +10
    Yeah, quite probably given the polling.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the budget there is a real cat and mouse game going on. The government hold the Commons in absolute contempt, used to blame Bercow for raising opposition and surely will soon start casting aspersions on Hoyle.

    Mister Speaker - as the previous title-holder demonstrated - has a wide range of measures available. Whilst Holye - unlike Bercow - isn't likely to make up rules as they go along and freestyle, there are swathes of rules he can deploy to smash down the government.

    It will be interesting to watch when this undoubtedly escalates into open warfare. The Leader of the House used to be the affable chap always quoting Erskine May to defend the rights of backbenchers against the government. How will he object to that very principle being slapped in his face...?

    'Smashed down the government' - bit over the top

    HMG should respect Parliament but the leaks have happened under every government.

    I expect Hoyle will have a go before the statement then the budget will dominate the agenda until COP26

    Bit over the top? The Spectator suggests that the Deputy Speaker simply thank Dishi for his Budget statement when he stands up and hands over to Starmer. And she could.

    Leaks have never - ever - happened on this scale for the budget. The entire budget. Briefed to the press. So that they had 3 days to report the juiciest sections.
    If Starmer's speech team are any good, the leaks ought to make his impossible job much easier. He knows what he's replying to.

    Admittedly, that's a fairly big if.

    Meanwhile, LBC are flagging the student loan thing (i.e. a tax rise that isn't technically a tax rise and magically only affects younger people)... That's not on, is it?
    As HYUFD will point out, young people generally do not vote Tory and are therefore fair game. If they didn't want to be taxed to death they should have voted Tory in 2019 - especially all the ones who were too young. If they had the best interests of the country would stop them now being taxed to death.
    In more seriousness, I’m 48, and not personally affected by this.
    But those arseholes are fucking over my daughters.

    If this does come to pass, I will be angrier with them than for a long time. But it will only last as long as my kids are affected. So, a little over forty years, if the rumours are true.
    And the Tories are going to be hoping that people will migrate to voting for them during the years that they are fucking them over.

    The Tories have not won under 35s since 1987.

    The Tories can win a majority as long as they win most over 45s and probably hold onto power as long as they win over 50s. Even now most people get on the property ladder by 40. They then have assets and so income taxes are less of an issue as they also have an asset's value to protect.

    I doubt Rishi will raise income tax however and I hope he does not
    28 year olds will be 38 in ten years time.
    Ten years later, they will be 48. And with still nearly 15 years left to pay, because the Tories will have retrospectively changed the terms of their loan.

    In the past, people have tended to migrate towards the Tories as they age. In the future, they will have far more reason not to migrate.

    Those who graduated before 2012 will be a diminishing share of the electorate.
    And, of course, parents of those (such as myself) will also be angry.
    And I already have a house, so the Tories don’t have anything to hold out for me. Fuck them.
    They may well be 38 in ten years time, however the Tories can still win a majority even if most of them vote Labour as long as they win most over 45s. Even when they get to 48 and even if most still vote Labour the Tories can still likely win most seats as long as they win most over 50s.

    In the past people have migrated to the Tories as they buy property, they still do today. The one exception was Blair in 1997 who won every generation including over 65s but that was a once in a century landslide defeat for the Tories unlikely ever to be repeated in my lifetime

    And when they’re 52 and would formerly be free of student loan debt and now have ten extra years to go, you think they’ll lunge for the Tories?

    I’ve got property, yet, mysteriously, I have no extra attraction to the Tories. Why should I? What benefit do I get from them? I’ve got my house now.

    Although if people don’t get free of student debt until they’re in their sixties, that’ll affect how much money they have to spend on property.

    And, of course, it’s not winner-takes-all in age groups. If you shift from, say, 45-40 behind in and age group to 55-30 behind, it’s not as if it’s no effect, even though you were losing before and would be losing again.
    By then Labour would likely have been in power and have removed it but the assets they have to protect will outweigh in terms of house value the remaining student loan debt left.

    As far as I can see you are an ideological leftwinger who would never vote Tory, so atypical, I am an ideological rightwinger who voted Tory even as a student, so atypical, I am talking the average voter.

    Nope.
    I voted Tory in 2005 and 2010. And supported the Coalition.
    Most of those who know me would laugh like a drain to hear me described as “an ideological leftwinger.”

    I can expound for hours on the superiority of free markets over state control. If pushed, I would have voted anyone-but-Corbyn both of the last two times. Someone who would be identified on any political spectrum as “Orange Book Liberal or Cameroon Conservative” is NOT who you should be pushing away.

    And describing as an “ideological leftwinger…” Heh.
    That’s funny. I think you tend to identify everyone who disagrees with you as that.
    So you voted Tory when they lost in 2005 and failed to win a majority in 2010 but did not vote Tory when they won majorities in 2015 and 2019. So again you are atypical.

    If you prefer free markets to state control that can just make you a liberal, it does not mean you are a Tory.

    We won a majority of 80 in 2019 when most Orange Book Liberals voted LD as did plenty of Cameron Conservatives because we won UKIP 2015 voters and Labour Leavers.

    According to your implied definition, only the swingiest of swing voters are “typical”
    Your definition has typical voters being a small minority.
    But I doubt you can even recognise that.

    Or that you’ve effectively acknowledged that for parents to ensure their children don’t lose out in life, they have to ensure the Tories are defeated.

    Not that the Tories would suddenly be flavour of the month after their policy is overturned or they lose power.

    Traditionally, the Lib Dems got students. Like traditionally the Tories got people as they aged. Traditions break.

    Just ask Nick Clegg or the Lib Dems how quick it is to be forgiven after screwing over students.
    Normally Labour got students actually, they just went LD under Charles Kennedy in 2005 and in 2010 in a brief protest over Blair's fees. They are back voting Labour again.

    As I pointed out similarly over 55s normally voted Tory but voted for Blair in 1997, then went back to voting Tory again and still vote Tory now
    I am not voting conservative unless they win my vote back, but then you have already excommunicated me along with many more who do not share your 1950 Little Englander outlook
    Given you are a former Blair voting Remainer if Starmer cannot even win you back he may as well pack up and go home
    You are doing a great job of discarding conservatives who have supported the party long before you were even in nappies and you need to realise you are one of the best examples of why not to vote conservative
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    edited October 2021

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    geoffw said:

    Farooq said:

    Thank God schools don’t bother with royal history now. I can think of almost nothing more tedious.

    It's slightly useful to give you a hook onto which you can hang the interesting history. For instance, the history of the church pivots on Henry VIII and the reason Alfred burned the cakes, if that even happened, was because he was on the run from the Danes. So it all links in. That said, you're right. It's dull as fuck just on its own.
    Move over history, it's herstory now.

    As in, herstory is nearly finished?
    Move over, Babs. It's time for Charles the Thick.
    Charles is not thick, in fact he will probably be our brightest monarch since Edward VIIth and our first Oxbridge graduate on the throne since his great great grandfather too who also had a reasonable but short reign overshadowed by that of his mother and son
    So you're saying the queen is thick? To the tower with you, young man. To the tower.
    Not thick, just not an intellectual like Charles
    Charles really isn’t that bright. He’s moderately intelligent, well read but few original thoughts. So much like the average person.
    The top royals have access to the more interesting people in society. But they don’t all make best use of it. See Harry. Charlie however proved himself decades ahead of the curve on the environment, the biggest global problem of the early 21st Century, and arguably too on housing policy.

    I don’t care much for the royal family as an institution but I’m quite looking forward to seeing what Charles will make of the role. Far more so than his nice but dim son.
    Yes, he may well be quite a good King.

    Not that we get any say in the matter. Its a close call that we are not having Prince Andrew as King.
    Would take a hell of an accident to get Andrew back to number one in the line of succession.
    Sooner or later we will get a really unpopular monarch, like Andrew. How many here would remain monarchists and grit their teeth for 20-30 years of King Andrew of equivalent? The system requires you to take the rough with the smooth.
    I would loyally support King Andrew or anyone else who is monarch as a loyal Tory monarchist, albeit I accept that is a minority view.

    However, the Queen, Charles, William, Harry and their children would all have to die in Andrew's lifetime for him to become King so the chances are near 0%
  • Options
    Cancel HS2 now!

    HS2 under fire for buying French steel

    Rail project says Sendin was selected after contract with UK supplier fell through even though French standards do not meet UK requirements


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/10/26/hs2-fire-buying-french-steel/
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,403

    Selebian said:

    rpjs said:

    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Third like Charles

    Changing name on becoming king would be such an act of unforced out of touch wankerdom that I am pretty certain he'll do it and be Edward 9 or something.
    George VII would be favourite.

    Charles has unfortunate links to regicides and adulterers, Philip is complicated by the fact nobody is sure whether the other King Philip counts in regnal numbers, and all the Arthurs died before they could take the throne.
    Links to adulterers? I understood it was a bit closer to home than that!

    (Allegedly etc. My main source is 'The Crown')
    Wouldn't the person someone commits adultery with also be an adulterer?
    Good question - I'm not sure. If the other person is unmarried then no? Or do I misunderstand the definition?
    Sometimes the person doesn't know they are committing adultery.

    They don't know the other person is married.
    This seems to shed some light
    https://www.nytimes.com/1997/06/15/magazine/adultery-and-fraternization.html

    Apparently only adulterer (under old definitions at least) if involving a married woman. With married man just fornication. Due to adultery requiring adulteration of the blood line.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    geoffw said:

    Farooq said:

    Thank God schools don’t bother with royal history now. I can think of almost nothing more tedious.

    It's slightly useful to give you a hook onto which you can hang the interesting history. For instance, the history of the church pivots on Henry VIII and the reason Alfred burned the cakes, if that even happened, was because he was on the run from the Danes. So it all links in. That said, you're right. It's dull as fuck just on its own.
    Move over history, it's herstory now.

    As in, herstory is nearly finished?
    Move over, Babs. It's time for Charles the Thick.
    Charles is not thick, in fact he will probably be our brightest monarch since Edward VIIth and our first Oxbridge graduate on the throne since his great great grandfather too who also had a reasonable but short reign overshadowed by that of his mother and son
    So you're saying the queen is thick? To the tower with you, young man. To the tower.
    Not thick, just not an intellectual like Charles
    Charles really isn’t that bright. He’s moderately intelligent, well read but few original thoughts. So much like the average person.
    The top royals have access to the more interesting people in society. But they don’t all make best use of it. See Harry. Charlie however proved himself decades ahead of the curve on the environment, the biggest global problem of the early 21st Century, and arguably too on housing policy.

    I don’t care much for the royal family as an institution but I’m quite looking forward to seeing what Charles will make of the role. Far more so than his nice but dim son.
    Yes, he may well be quite a good King.

    Not that we get any say in the matter. Its a close call that we are not having Prince Andrew as King.
    Would take a hell of an accident to get Andrew back to number one in the line of succession.
    Sooner or later we will get a really unpopular monarch, like Andrew. How many here would remain monarchists and grit their teeth for 20-30 years of King Andrew of equivalent? The system requires you to take the rough with the smooth.
    I would loyally support King Andrew or anyone else who is monarch as a loyal Tory monarchist, albeit I accept that is a minority view.

    However, the Queen, Charles, William, Harry and their children would all have to die in Andrew's lifetime for him to become King so the chances are near 0%
    Of course you would
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952
    edited October 2021
    Taz said:

    The Tories still getting an absolute hammering over the raw sewage in the oceans and rivers debacle on social media and the news. This is typical of the comment. Nothing to confirm it’s veracity of course. The party media management is totally shambolic.



    https://twitter.com/holnicotenh/status/1452962051211636746?s=21

    Yep.
    49 hours straight into a harbour in Hampshire.
    Nearly 1000 hours into the Thames last year.
    It's no use saying it always happened. Folk don't know that. And they think it stinks. Which it does.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    geoffw said:

    Farooq said:

    Thank God schools don’t bother with royal history now. I can think of almost nothing more tedious.

    It's slightly useful to give you a hook onto which you can hang the interesting history. For instance, the history of the church pivots on Henry VIII and the reason Alfred burned the cakes, if that even happened, was because he was on the run from the Danes. So it all links in. That said, you're right. It's dull as fuck just on its own.
    Move over history, it's herstory now.

    As in, herstory is nearly finished?
    Move over, Babs. It's time for Charles the Thick.
    Charles is not thick, in fact he will probably be our brightest monarch since Edward VIIth and our first Oxbridge graduate on the throne since his great great grandfather too who also had a reasonable but short reign overshadowed by that of his mother and son
    So you're saying the queen is thick? To the tower with you, young man. To the tower.
    Not thick, just not an intellectual like Charles
    Charles really isn’t that bright. He’s moderately intelligent, well read but few original thoughts. So much like the average person.
    The top royals have access to the more interesting people in society. But they don’t all make best use of it. See Harry. Charlie however proved himself decades ahead of the curve on the environment, the biggest global problem of the early 21st Century, and arguably too on housing policy.

    I don’t care much for the royal family as an institution but I’m quite looking forward to seeing what Charles will make of the role. Far more so than his nice but dim son.
    Yes, he may well be quite a good King.

    Not that we get any say in the matter. Its a close call that we are not having Prince Andrew as King.
    Would take a hell of an accident to get Andrew back to number one in the line of succession.
    Sooner or later we will get a really unpopular monarch, like Andrew. How many here would remain monarchists and grit their teeth for 20-30 years of King Andrew of equivalent? The system requires you to take the rough with the smooth.
    I would loyally support King Andrew or anyone else who is monarch as a loyal Tory monarchist, albeit I accept that is a minority view.

    However, the Queen, Charles, William, Harry and their children would all have to die in Andrew's lifetime for him to become King so the chances are near 0%
    You aren't the only one with a "minority view"
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,179

    Oooh a new referendum.


    Absolute unalloyed joy.

    The British public are in favour of a referendum on the Government’s net zero proposals, a new poll has shown.

    Forty two per cent of adults said they supported a vote on the plan, whilst 30 per cent opposed it, and 28 per cent did not declare a preference, according to a YouGov survey conducted this month.

    When the “don’t knows” were excluded from the results, a majority of 58 per cent wanted a ballot on the issue.

    The survey showed that of those who expressed a preference, more than 50 per cent of each category polled supported a referendum on net zero. This included 18- to 24-year-olds, middle class voters, Londoners, Remainers, both men and women, and Liberal Democrat backers....

    ....The polling was commissioned by Car26.org, a new campaign group calling for a referendum on net zero proposals and a pause in eco regulations until such a ballot is held.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/10/26/britons-want-referendum-no-10s-net-zero-plans-next-general-election/

    Only those who want to vote against it want a referendum I suspect.
  • Options
    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    rpjs said:

    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Third like Charles

    Changing name on becoming king would be such an act of unforced out of touch wankerdom that I am pretty certain he'll do it and be Edward 9 or something.
    George VII would be favourite.

    Charles has unfortunate links to regicides and adulterers, Philip is complicated by the fact nobody is sure whether the other King Philip counts in regnal numbers, and all the Arthurs died before they could take the throne.
    Links to adulterers? I understood it was a bit closer to home than that!

    (Allegedly etc. My main source is 'The Crown')
    Wouldn't the person someone commits adultery with also be an adulterer?
    Good question - I'm not sure. If the other person is unmarried then no? Or do I misunderstand the definition?
    Sometimes the person doesn't know they are committing adultery.

    They don't know the other person is married.
    This seems to shed some light
    https://www.nytimes.com/1997/06/15/magazine/adultery-and-fraternization.html

    Apparently only adulterer (under old definitions at least) if involving a married woman. With married man just fornication. Due to adultery requiring adulteration of the blood line.
    Trust me, you haven't lived until you've been named as co-respondent in someone else's divorce proceedings.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    edited October 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the budget there is a real cat and mouse game going on. The government hold the Commons in absolute contempt, used to blame Bercow for raising opposition and surely will soon start casting aspersions on Hoyle.

    Mister Speaker - as the previous title-holder demonstrated - has a wide range of measures available. Whilst Holye - unlike Bercow - isn't likely to make up rules as they go along and freestyle, there are swathes of rules he can deploy to smash down the government.

    It will be interesting to watch when this undoubtedly escalates into open warfare. The Leader of the House used to be the affable chap always quoting Erskine May to defend the rights of backbenchers against the government. How will he object to that very principle being slapped in his face...?

    'Smashed down the government' - bit over the top

    HMG should respect Parliament but the leaks have happened under every government.

    I expect Hoyle will have a go before the statement then the budget will dominate the agenda until COP26

    Bit over the top? The Spectator suggests that the Deputy Speaker simply thank Dishi for his Budget statement when he stands up and hands over to Starmer. And she could.

    Leaks have never - ever - happened on this scale for the budget. The entire budget. Briefed to the press. So that they had 3 days to report the juiciest sections.
    If Starmer's speech team are any good, the leaks ought to make his impossible job much easier. He knows what he's replying to.

    Admittedly, that's a fairly big if.

    Meanwhile, LBC are flagging the student loan thing (i.e. a tax rise that isn't technically a tax rise and magically only affects younger people)... That's not on, is it?
    As HYUFD will point out, young people generally do not vote Tory and are therefore fair game. If they didn't want to be taxed to death they should have voted Tory in 2019 - especially all the ones who were too young. If they had the best interests of the country would stop them now being taxed to death.
    In more seriousness, I’m 48, and not personally affected by this.
    But those arseholes are fucking over my daughters.

    If this does come to pass, I will be angrier with them than for a long time. But it will only last as long as my kids are affected. So, a little over forty years, if the rumours are true.
    And the Tories are going to be hoping that people will migrate to voting for them during the years that they are fucking them over.

    The Tories have not won under 35s since 1987.

    The Tories can win a majority as long as they win most over 45s and probably hold onto power as long as they win over 50s. Even now most people get on the property ladder by 40. They then have assets and so income taxes are less of an issue as they also have an asset's value to protect.

    I doubt Rishi will raise income tax however and I hope he does not
    28 year olds will be 38 in ten years time.
    Ten years later, they will be 48. And with still nearly 15 years left to pay, because the Tories will have retrospectively changed the terms of their loan.

    In the past, people have tended to migrate towards the Tories as they age. In the future, they will have far more reason not to migrate.

    Those who graduated before 2012 will be a diminishing share of the electorate.
    And, of course, parents of those (such as myself) will also be angry.
    And I already have a house, so the Tories don’t have anything to hold out for me. Fuck them.
    They may well be 38 in ten years time, however the Tories can still win a majority even if most of them vote Labour as long as they win most over 45s. Even when they get to 48 and even if most still vote Labour the Tories can still likely win most seats as long as they win most over 50s.

    In the past people have migrated to the Tories as they buy property, they still do today. The one exception was Blair in 1997 who won every generation including over 65s but that was a once in a century landslide defeat for the Tories unlikely ever to be repeated in my lifetime

    And when they’re 52 and would formerly be free of student loan debt and now have ten extra years to go, you think they’ll lunge for the Tories?

    I’ve got property, yet, mysteriously, I have no extra attraction to the Tories. Why should I? What benefit do I get from them? I’ve got my house now.

    Although if people don’t get free of student debt until they’re in their sixties, that’ll affect how much money they have to spend on property.

    And, of course, it’s not winner-takes-all in age groups. If you shift from, say, 45-40 behind in and age group to 55-30 behind, it’s not as if it’s no effect, even though you were losing before and would be losing again.
    By then Labour would likely have been in power and have removed it but the assets they have to protect will outweigh in terms of house value the remaining student loan debt left.

    As far as I can see you are an ideological leftwinger who would never vote Tory, so atypical, I am an ideological rightwinger who voted Tory even as a student, so atypical, I am talking the average voter.

    Nope.
    I voted Tory in 2005 and 2010. And supported the Coalition.
    Most of those who know me would laugh like a drain to hear me described as “an ideological leftwinger.”

    I can expound for hours on the superiority of free markets over state control. If pushed, I would have voted anyone-but-Corbyn both of the last two times. Someone who would be identified on any political spectrum as “Orange Book Liberal or Cameroon Conservative” is NOT who you should be pushing away.

    And describing as an “ideological leftwinger…” Heh.
    That’s funny. I think you tend to identify everyone who disagrees with you as that.
    So you voted Tory when they lost in 2005 and failed to win a majority in 2010 but did not vote Tory when they won majorities in 2015 and 2019. So again you are atypical.

    If you prefer free markets to state control that can just make you a liberal, it does not mean you are a Tory.

    We won a majority of 80 in 2019 when most Orange Book Liberals voted LD as did plenty of Cameron Conservatives because we won UKIP 2015 voters and Labour Leavers.

    According to your implied definition, only the swingiest of swing voters are “typical”
    Your definition has typical voters being a small minority.
    But I doubt you can even recognise that.

    Or that you’ve effectively acknowledged that for parents to ensure their children don’t lose out in life, they have to ensure the Tories are defeated.

    Not that the Tories would suddenly be flavour of the month after their policy is overturned or they lose power.

    Traditionally, the Lib Dems got students. Like traditionally the Tories got people as they aged. Traditions break.

    Just ask Nick Clegg or the Lib Dems how quick it is to be forgiven after screwing over students.
    Normally Labour got students actually, they just went LD under Charles Kennedy in 2005 and in 2010 in a brief protest over Blair's fees. They are back voting Labour again.

    As I pointed out similarly over 55s normally voted Tory but voted for Blair in 1997, then went back to voting Tory again and still vote Tory now
    The student vote was once a decent chunk of the Lib Dem vote. It no longer is. Unless you believe that a similar proportion of them vote Lib Dem in 2017 or 2019 as did in, say, 2001 (24% of 18-24s) or 1997 (16% of 18-24s).

    And I’m pointing out that if you piss on 55-year-olds for forty years, you should not expect them to have quite the attraction for you that they used to do.
    You seem intent on wanting to believe that they will miraculously forgive and forget everything when they hit a certain point in their lives.
    Just because things have happened before doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to happen again. Not if you change the input conditions.
    Once people own a property that is their main asset more than offsetting any student loans, they will then almost always vote Tory to keep that asset's value rising and keep out Labour unless there is an ultra centrist Labour leader like Blair who they trust to keep the economy growing and house prices rising as was the case in 1997
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,576
    Selebian said:

    rpjs said:

    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Third like Charles

    Changing name on becoming king would be such an act of unforced out of touch wankerdom that I am pretty certain he'll do it and be Edward 9 or something.
    George VII would be favourite.

    Charles has unfortunate links to regicides and adulterers, Philip is complicated by the fact nobody is sure whether the other King Philip counts in regnal numbers, and all the Arthurs died before they could take the throne.
    Links to adulterers? I understood it was a bit closer to home than that!

    (Allegedly etc. My main source is 'The Crown')
    Wouldn't the person someone commits adultery with also be an adulterer?
    Good question - I'm not sure. If the other person is unmarried then no? Or do I misunderstand the definition?
    Isn't the correct template "co-respondent"?
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,148
    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    The Tories still getting an absolute hammering over the raw sewage in the oceans and rivers debacle on social media and the news. This is typical of the comment. Nothing to confirm it’s veracity of course. The party media management is totally shambolic.



    https://twitter.com/holnicotenh/status/1452962051211636746?s=21

    Yep.
    49 hours straight into a harbour in Hampshire.
    Nearly 1000 hours into the Thames last year.
    It's no use saying it always happened. Folk don't know that. And they think it stinks. Which it does.
    So time to do something about it. I did hear that there was a clause that woul£ make the water companies responsible for what others might put into the rivers, which seemed odd. I have problem with ratcheting up the pressure get cleaner rivers and seas.
    Although we won’t be stopping all those fish from peeing in the water too...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    edited October 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the budget there is a real cat and mouse game going on. The government hold the Commons in absolute contempt, used to blame Bercow for raising opposition and surely will soon start casting aspersions on Hoyle.

    Mister Speaker - as the previous title-holder demonstrated - has a wide range of measures available. Whilst Holye - unlike Bercow - isn't likely to make up rules as they go along and freestyle, there are swathes of rules he can deploy to smash down the government.

    It will be interesting to watch when this undoubtedly escalates into open warfare. The Leader of the House used to be the affable chap always quoting Erskine May to defend the rights of backbenchers against the government. How will he object to that very principle being slapped in his face...?

    'Smashed down the government' - bit over the top

    HMG should respect Parliament but the leaks have happened under every government.

    I expect Hoyle will have a go before the statement then the budget will dominate the agenda until COP26

    Bit over the top? The Spectator suggests that the Deputy Speaker simply thank Dishi for his Budget statement when he stands up and hands over to Starmer. And she could.

    Leaks have never - ever - happened on this scale for the budget. The entire budget. Briefed to the press. So that they had 3 days to report the juiciest sections.
    If Starmer's speech team are any good, the leaks ought to make his impossible job much easier. He knows what he's replying to.

    Admittedly, that's a fairly big if.

    Meanwhile, LBC are flagging the student loan thing (i.e. a tax rise that isn't technically a tax rise and magically only affects younger people)... That's not on, is it?
    As HYUFD will point out, young people generally do not vote Tory and are therefore fair game. If they didn't want to be taxed to death they should have voted Tory in 2019 - especially all the ones who were too young. If they had the best interests of the country would stop them now being taxed to death.
    In more seriousness, I’m 48, and not personally affected by this.
    But those arseholes are fucking over my daughters.

    If this does come to pass, I will be angrier with them than for a long time. But it will only last as long as my kids are affected. So, a little over forty years, if the rumours are true.
    And the Tories are going to be hoping that people will migrate to voting for them during the years that they are fucking them over.

    The Tories have not won under 35s since 1987.

    The Tories can win a majority as long as they win most over 45s and probably hold onto power as long as they win over 50s. Even now most people get on the property ladder by 40. They then have assets and so income taxes are less of an issue as they also have an asset's value to protect.

    I doubt Rishi will raise income tax however and I hope he does not
    28 year olds will be 38 in ten years time.
    Ten years later, they will be 48. And with still nearly 15 years left to pay, because the Tories will have retrospectively changed the terms of their loan.

    In the past, people have tended to migrate towards the Tories as they age. In the future, they will have far more reason not to migrate.

    Those who graduated before 2012 will be a diminishing share of the electorate.
    And, of course, parents of those (such as myself) will also be angry.
    And I already have a house, so the Tories don’t have anything to hold out for me. Fuck them.
    They may well be 38 in ten years time, however the Tories can still win a majority even if most of them vote Labour as long as they win most over 45s. Even when they get to 48 and even if most still vote Labour the Tories can still likely win most seats as long as they win most over 50s.

    In the past people have migrated to the Tories as they buy property, they still do today. The one exception was Blair in 1997 who won every generation including over 65s but that was a once in a century landslide defeat for the Tories unlikely ever to be repeated in my lifetime

    And when they’re 52 and would formerly be free of student loan debt and now have ten extra years to go, you think they’ll lunge for the Tories?

    I’ve got property, yet, mysteriously, I have no extra attraction to the Tories. Why should I? What benefit do I get from them? I’ve got my house now.

    Although if people don’t get free of student debt until they’re in their sixties, that’ll affect how much money they have to spend on property.

    And, of course, it’s not winner-takes-all in age groups. If you shift from, say, 45-40 behind in and age group to 55-30 behind, it’s not as if it’s no effect, even though you were losing before and would be losing again.
    By then Labour would likely have been in power and have removed it but the assets they have to protect will outweigh in terms of house value the remaining student loan debt left.

    As far as I can see you are an ideological leftwinger who would never vote Tory, so atypical, I am an ideological rightwinger who voted Tory even as a student, so atypical, I am talking the average voter.

    Nope.
    I voted Tory in 2005 and 2010. And supported the Coalition.
    Most of those who know me would laugh like a drain to hear me described as “an ideological leftwinger.”

    I can expound for hours on the superiority of free markets over state control. If pushed, I would have voted anyone-but-Corbyn both of the last two times. Someone who would be identified on any political spectrum as “Orange Book Liberal or Cameroon Conservative” is NOT who you should be pushing away.

    And describing as an “ideological leftwinger…” Heh.
    That’s funny. I think you tend to identify everyone who disagrees with you as that.
    So you voted Tory when they lost in 2005 and failed to win a majority in 2010 but did not vote Tory when they won majorities in 2015 and 2019. So again you are atypical.

    If you prefer free markets to state control that can just make you a liberal, it does not mean you are a Tory.

    We won a majority of 80 in 2019 when most Orange Book Liberals voted LD as did plenty of Cameron Conservatives because we won UKIP 2015 voters and Labour Leavers.

    According to your implied definition, only the swingiest of swing voters are “typical”
    Your definition has typical voters being a small minority.
    But I doubt you can even recognise that.

    Or that you’ve effectively acknowledged that for parents to ensure their children don’t lose out in life, they have to ensure the Tories are defeated.

    Not that the Tories would suddenly be flavour of the month after their policy is overturned or they lose power.

    Traditionally, the Lib Dems got students. Like traditionally the Tories got people as they aged. Traditions break.

    Just ask Nick Clegg or the Lib Dems how quick it is to be forgiven after screwing over students.
    Normally Labour got students actually, they just went LD under Charles Kennedy in 2005 and in 2010 in a brief protest over Blair's fees. They are back voting Labour again.

    As I pointed out similarly over 55s normally voted Tory but voted for Blair in 1997, then went back to voting Tory again and still vote Tory now
    I am not voting conservative unless they win my vote back, but then you have already excommunicated me along with many more who do not share your 1950 Little Englander outlook
    Given you are a former Blair voting Remainer if Starmer cannot even win you back he may as well pack up and go home
    You are doing a great job of discarding conservatives who have supported the party long before you were even in nappies and you need to realise you are one of the best examples of why not to vote conservative
    You voted Blair in 1997 and 2001, you voted Remain, you are more likely therefore to leave Boris and move to Starmer Labour or the LDs than Labour Leave voters who voted for Boris in 2019. Boris can still win even if he loses you if he keeps most of the latter
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,576

    Selebian said:

    rpjs said:

    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Third like Charles

    Changing name on becoming king would be such an act of unforced out of touch wankerdom that I am pretty certain he'll do it and be Edward 9 or something.
    George VII would be favourite.

    Charles has unfortunate links to regicides and adulterers, Philip is complicated by the fact nobody is sure whether the other King Philip counts in regnal numbers, and all the Arthurs died before they could take the throne.
    Links to adulterers? I understood it was a bit closer to home than that!

    (Allegedly etc. My main source is 'The Crown')
    Wouldn't the person someone commits adultery with also be an adulterer?
    Good question - I'm not sure. If the other person is unmarried then no? Or do I misunderstand the definition?
    Sometimes the person doesn't know they are committing adultery.

    They don't know the other person is married.
    When it involves Royals though there must be a fair chance that even the thickest courtier knew the King was married.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the budget there is a real cat and mouse game going on. The government hold the Commons in absolute contempt, used to blame Bercow for raising opposition and surely will soon start casting aspersions on Hoyle.

    Mister Speaker - as the previous title-holder demonstrated - has a wide range of measures available. Whilst Holye - unlike Bercow - isn't likely to make up rules as they go along and freestyle, there are swathes of rules he can deploy to smash down the government.

    It will be interesting to watch when this undoubtedly escalates into open warfare. The Leader of the House used to be the affable chap always quoting Erskine May to defend the rights of backbenchers against the government. How will he object to that very principle being slapped in his face...?

    'Smashed down the government' - bit over the top

    HMG should respect Parliament but the leaks have happened under every government.

    I expect Hoyle will have a go before the statement then the budget will dominate the agenda until COP26

    Bit over the top? The Spectator suggests that the Deputy Speaker simply thank Dishi for his Budget statement when he stands up and hands over to Starmer. And she could.

    Leaks have never - ever - happened on this scale for the budget. The entire budget. Briefed to the press. So that they had 3 days to report the juiciest sections.
    If Starmer's speech team are any good, the leaks ought to make his impossible job much easier. He knows what he's replying to.

    Admittedly, that's a fairly big if.

    Meanwhile, LBC are flagging the student loan thing (i.e. a tax rise that isn't technically a tax rise and magically only affects younger people)... That's not on, is it?
    As HYUFD will point out, young people generally do not vote Tory and are therefore fair game. If they didn't want to be taxed to death they should have voted Tory in 2019 - especially all the ones who were too young. If they had the best interests of the country would stop them now being taxed to death.
    In more seriousness, I’m 48, and not personally affected by this.
    But those arseholes are fucking over my daughters.

    If this does come to pass, I will be angrier with them than for a long time. But it will only last as long as my kids are affected. So, a little over forty years, if the rumours are true.
    And the Tories are going to be hoping that people will migrate to voting for them during the years that they are fucking them over.

    The Tories have not won under 35s since 1987.

    The Tories can win a majority as long as they win most over 45s and probably hold onto power as long as they win over 50s. Even now most people get on the property ladder by 40. They then have assets and so income taxes are less of an issue as they also have an asset's value to protect.

    I doubt Rishi will raise income tax however and I hope he does not
    28 year olds will be 38 in ten years time.
    Ten years later, they will be 48. And with still nearly 15 years left to pay, because the Tories will have retrospectively changed the terms of their loan.

    In the past, people have tended to migrate towards the Tories as they age. In the future, they will have far more reason not to migrate.

    Those who graduated before 2012 will be a diminishing share of the electorate.
    And, of course, parents of those (such as myself) will also be angry.
    And I already have a house, so the Tories don’t have anything to hold out for me. Fuck them.
    They may well be 38 in ten years time, however the Tories can still win a majority even if most of them vote Labour as long as they win most over 45s. Even when they get to 48 and even if most still vote Labour the Tories can still likely win most seats as long as they win most over 50s.

    In the past people have migrated to the Tories as they buy property, they still do today. The one exception was Blair in 1997 who won every generation including over 65s but that was a once in a century landslide defeat for the Tories unlikely ever to be repeated in my lifetime

    And when they’re 52 and would formerly be free of student loan debt and now have ten extra years to go, you think they’ll lunge for the Tories?

    I’ve got property, yet, mysteriously, I have no extra attraction to the Tories. Why should I? What benefit do I get from them? I’ve got my house now.

    Although if people don’t get free of student debt until they’re in their sixties, that’ll affect how much money they have to spend on property.

    And, of course, it’s not winner-takes-all in age groups. If you shift from, say, 45-40 behind in and age group to 55-30 behind, it’s not as if it’s no effect, even though you were losing before and would be losing again.
    By then Labour would likely have been in power and have removed it but the assets they have to protect will outweigh in terms of house value the remaining student loan debt left.

    As far as I can see you are an ideological leftwinger who would never vote Tory, so atypical, I am an ideological rightwinger who voted Tory even as a student, so atypical, I am talking the average voter.

    Nope.
    I voted Tory in 2005 and 2010. And supported the Coalition.
    Most of those who know me would laugh like a drain to hear me described as “an ideological leftwinger.”

    I can expound for hours on the superiority of free markets over state control. If pushed, I would have voted anyone-but-Corbyn both of the last two times. Someone who would be identified on any political spectrum as “Orange Book Liberal or Cameroon Conservative” is NOT who you should be pushing away.

    And describing as an “ideological leftwinger…” Heh.
    That’s funny. I think you tend to identify everyone who disagrees with you as that.
    So you voted Tory when they lost in 2005 and failed to win a majority in 2010 but did not vote Tory when they won majorities in 2015 and 2019. So again you are atypical.

    If you prefer free markets to state control that can just make you a liberal, it does not mean you are a Tory.

    We won a majority of 80 in 2019 when most Orange Book Liberals voted LD as did plenty of Cameron Conservatives because we won UKIP 2015 voters and Labour Leavers.

    According to your implied definition, only the swingiest of swing voters are “typical”
    Your definition has typical voters being a small minority.
    But I doubt you can even recognise that.

    Or that you’ve effectively acknowledged that for parents to ensure their children don’t lose out in life, they have to ensure the Tories are defeated.

    Not that the Tories would suddenly be flavour of the month after their policy is overturned or they lose power.

    Traditionally, the Lib Dems got students. Like traditionally the Tories got people as they aged. Traditions break.

    Just ask Nick Clegg or the Lib Dems how quick it is to be forgiven after screwing over students.
    Normally Labour got students actually, they just went LD under Charles Kennedy in 2005 and in 2010 in a brief protest over Blair's fees. They are back voting Labour again.

    As I pointed out similarly over 55s normally voted Tory but voted for Blair in 1997, then went back to voting Tory again and still vote Tory now
    I am not voting conservative unless they win my vote back, but then you have already excommunicated me along with many more who do not share your 1950 Little Englander outlook
    1950? He seems to view the Conservatives as the Tory Party of landed gentry, church and state of 1750.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,119

    Cancel HS2 now!

    HS2 under fire for buying French steel

    Rail project says Sendin was selected after contract with UK supplier fell through even though French standards do not meet UK requirements


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/10/26/hs2-fire-buying-french-steel/

    Surely if they are supplying to the UK market they are supplying to,the standard required by the bid request document.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the budget there is a real cat and mouse game going on. The government hold the Commons in absolute contempt, used to blame Bercow for raising opposition and surely will soon start casting aspersions on Hoyle.

    Mister Speaker - as the previous title-holder demonstrated - has a wide range of measures available. Whilst Holye - unlike Bercow - isn't likely to make up rules as they go along and freestyle, there are swathes of rules he can deploy to smash down the government.

    It will be interesting to watch when this undoubtedly escalates into open warfare. The Leader of the House used to be the affable chap always quoting Erskine May to defend the rights of backbenchers against the government. How will he object to that very principle being slapped in his face...?

    'Smashed down the government' - bit over the top

    HMG should respect Parliament but the leaks have happened under every government.

    I expect Hoyle will have a go before the statement then the budget will dominate the agenda until COP26

    Bit over the top? The Spectator suggests that the Deputy Speaker simply thank Dishi for his Budget statement when he stands up and hands over to Starmer. And she could.

    Leaks have never - ever - happened on this scale for the budget. The entire budget. Briefed to the press. So that they had 3 days to report the juiciest sections.
    If Starmer's speech team are any good, the leaks ought to make his impossible job much easier. He knows what he's replying to.

    Admittedly, that's a fairly big if.

    Meanwhile, LBC are flagging the student loan thing (i.e. a tax rise that isn't technically a tax rise and magically only affects younger people)... That's not on, is it?
    As HYUFD will point out, young people generally do not vote Tory and are therefore fair game. If they didn't want to be taxed to death they should have voted Tory in 2019 - especially all the ones who were too young. If they had the best interests of the country would stop them now being taxed to death.
    In more seriousness, I’m 48, and not personally affected by this.
    But those arseholes are fucking over my daughters.

    If this does come to pass, I will be angrier with them than for a long time. But it will only last as long as my kids are affected. So, a little over forty years, if the rumours are true.
    And the Tories are going to be hoping that people will migrate to voting for them during the years that they are fucking them over.

    The Tories have not won under 35s since 1987.

    The Tories can win a majority as long as they win most over 45s and probably hold onto power as long as they win over 50s. Even now most people get on the property ladder by 40. They then have assets and so income taxes are less of an issue as they also have an asset's value to protect.

    I doubt Rishi will raise income tax however and I hope he does not
    28 year olds will be 38 in ten years time.
    Ten years later, they will be 48. And with still nearly 15 years left to pay, because the Tories will have retrospectively changed the terms of their loan.

    In the past, people have tended to migrate towards the Tories as they age. In the future, they will have far more reason not to migrate.

    Those who graduated before 2012 will be a diminishing share of the electorate.
    And, of course, parents of those (such as myself) will also be angry.
    And I already have a house, so the Tories don’t have anything to hold out for me. Fuck them.
    They may well be 38 in ten years time, however the Tories can still win a majority even if most of them vote Labour as long as they win most over 45s. Even when they get to 48 and even if most still vote Labour the Tories can still likely win most seats as long as they win most over 50s.

    In the past people have migrated to the Tories as they buy property, they still do today. The one exception was Blair in 1997 who won every generation including over 65s but that was a once in a century landslide defeat for the Tories unlikely ever to be repeated in my lifetime

    And when they’re 52 and would formerly be free of student loan debt and now have ten extra years to go, you think they’ll lunge for the Tories?

    I’ve got property, yet, mysteriously, I have no extra attraction to the Tories. Why should I? What benefit do I get from them? I’ve got my house now.

    Although if people don’t get free of student debt until they’re in their sixties, that’ll affect how much money they have to spend on property.

    And, of course, it’s not winner-takes-all in age groups. If you shift from, say, 45-40 behind in and age group to 55-30 behind, it’s not as if it’s no effect, even though you were losing before and would be losing again.
    By then Labour would likely have been in power and have removed it but the assets they have to protect will outweigh in terms of house value the remaining student loan debt left.

    As far as I can see you are an ideological leftwinger who would never vote Tory, so atypical, I am an ideological rightwinger who voted Tory even as a student, so atypical, I am talking the average voter.

    Nope.
    I voted Tory in 2005 and 2010. And supported the Coalition.
    Most of those who know me would laugh like a drain to hear me described as “an ideological leftwinger.”

    I can expound for hours on the superiority of free markets over state control. If pushed, I would have voted anyone-but-Corbyn both of the last two times. Someone who would be identified on any political spectrum as “Orange Book Liberal or Cameroon Conservative” is NOT who you should be pushing away.

    And describing as an “ideological leftwinger…” Heh.
    That’s funny. I think you tend to identify everyone who disagrees with you as that.
    So you voted Tory when they lost in 2005 and failed to win a majority in 2010 but did not vote Tory when they won majorities in 2015 and 2019. So again you are atypical.

    If you prefer free markets to state control that can just make you a liberal, it does not mean you are a Tory.

    We won a majority of 80 in 2019 when most Orange Book Liberals voted LD as did plenty of Cameron Conservatives because we won UKIP 2015 voters and Labour Leavers.

    According to your implied definition, only the swingiest of swing voters are “typical”
    Your definition has typical voters being a small minority.
    But I doubt you can even recognise that.

    Or that you’ve effectively acknowledged that for parents to ensure their children don’t lose out in life, they have to ensure the Tories are defeated.

    Not that the Tories would suddenly be flavour of the month after their policy is overturned or they lose power.

    Traditionally, the Lib Dems got students. Like traditionally the Tories got people as they aged. Traditions break.

    Just ask Nick Clegg or the Lib Dems how quick it is to be forgiven after screwing over students.
    Normally Labour got students actually, they just went LD under Charles Kennedy in 2005 and in 2010 in a brief protest over Blair's fees. They are back voting Labour again.

    As I pointed out similarly over 55s normally voted Tory but voted for Blair in 1997, then went back to voting Tory again and still vote Tory now
    I am not voting conservative unless they win my vote back, but then you have already excommunicated me along with many more who do not share your 1950 Little Englander outlook
    1950? He seems to view the Conservatives as the Tory Party of landed gentry, church and state of 1750.
    I picture HYUFD sitting at his keyboard wearing a powdered wig.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,403

    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    rpjs said:

    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Third like Charles

    Changing name on becoming king would be such an act of unforced out of touch wankerdom that I am pretty certain he'll do it and be Edward 9 or something.
    George VII would be favourite.

    Charles has unfortunate links to regicides and adulterers, Philip is complicated by the fact nobody is sure whether the other King Philip counts in regnal numbers, and all the Arthurs died before they could take the throne.
    Links to adulterers? I understood it was a bit closer to home than that!

    (Allegedly etc. My main source is 'The Crown')
    Wouldn't the person someone commits adultery with also be an adulterer?
    Good question - I'm not sure. If the other person is unmarried then no? Or do I misunderstand the definition?
    Sometimes the person doesn't know they are committing adultery.

    They don't know the other person is married.
    This seems to shed some light
    https://www.nytimes.com/1997/06/15/magazine/adultery-and-fraternization.html

    Apparently only adulterer (under old definitions at least) if involving a married woman. With married man just fornication. Due to adultery requiring adulteration of the blood line.
    Trust me, you haven't lived until you've been named as co-respondent in someone else's divorce proceedings.
    I'll take your word for it!
  • Options

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    geoffw said:

    Farooq said:

    Thank God schools don’t bother with royal history now. I can think of almost nothing more tedious.

    It's slightly useful to give you a hook onto which you can hang the interesting history. For instance, the history of the church pivots on Henry VIII and the reason Alfred burned the cakes, if that even happened, was because he was on the run from the Danes. So it all links in. That said, you're right. It's dull as fuck just on its own.
    Move over history, it's herstory now.

    As in, herstory is nearly finished?
    Move over, Babs. It's time for Charles the Thick.
    Charles is not thick, in fact he will probably be our brightest monarch since Edward VIIth and our first Oxbridge graduate on the throne since his great great grandfather too who also had a reasonable but short reign overshadowed by that of his mother and son
    So you're saying the queen is thick? To the tower with you, young man. To the tower.
    Not thick, just not an intellectual like Charles
    Charles really isn’t that bright. He’s moderately intelligent, well read but few original thoughts. So much like the average person.
    The top royals have access to the more interesting people in society. But they don’t all make best use of it. See Harry. Charlie however proved himself decades ahead of the curve on the environment, the biggest global problem of the early 21st Century, and arguably too on housing policy.

    I don’t care much for the royal family as an institution but I’m quite looking forward to seeing what Charles will make of the role. Far more so than his nice but dim son.
    Yes, he may well be quite a good King.

    Not that we get any say in the matter. Its a close call that we are not having Prince Andrew as King.
    Would take a hell of an accident to get Andrew back to number one in the line of succession.
    Sooner or later we will get a really unpopular monarch, like Andrew. How many here would remain monarchists and grit their teeth for 20-30 years of King Andrew of equivalent? The system requires you to take the rough with the smooth.
    Sooner or later? We'll get that as soon as Operation London Bridge.

    Though one thing is that going forwards the monarchy could quite possibly always be a gerontocracy. Charles is already past retirement age and if he lives as long as either of his parents, then William would be at or close to it too by then.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the budget there is a real cat and mouse game going on. The government hold the Commons in absolute contempt, used to blame Bercow for raising opposition and surely will soon start casting aspersions on Hoyle.

    Mister Speaker - as the previous title-holder demonstrated - has a wide range of measures available. Whilst Holye - unlike Bercow - isn't likely to make up rules as they go along and freestyle, there are swathes of rules he can deploy to smash down the government.

    It will be interesting to watch when this undoubtedly escalates into open warfare. The Leader of the House used to be the affable chap always quoting Erskine May to defend the rights of backbenchers against the government. How will he object to that very principle being slapped in his face...?

    'Smashed down the government' - bit over the top

    HMG should respect Parliament but the leaks have happened under every government.

    I expect Hoyle will have a go before the statement then the budget will dominate the agenda until COP26

    Bit over the top? The Spectator suggests that the Deputy Speaker simply thank Dishi for his Budget statement when he stands up and hands over to Starmer. And she could.

    Leaks have never - ever - happened on this scale for the budget. The entire budget. Briefed to the press. So that they had 3 days to report the juiciest sections.
    If Starmer's speech team are any good, the leaks ought to make his impossible job much easier. He knows what he's replying to.

    Admittedly, that's a fairly big if.

    Meanwhile, LBC are flagging the student loan thing (i.e. a tax rise that isn't technically a tax rise and magically only affects younger people)... That's not on, is it?
    As HYUFD will point out, young people generally do not vote Tory and are therefore fair game. If they didn't want to be taxed to death they should have voted Tory in 2019 - especially all the ones who were too young. If they had the best interests of the country would stop them now being taxed to death.
    In more seriousness, I’m 48, and not personally affected by this.
    But those arseholes are fucking over my daughters.

    If this does come to pass, I will be angrier with them than for a long time. But it will only last as long as my kids are affected. So, a little over forty years, if the rumours are true.
    And the Tories are going to be hoping that people will migrate to voting for them during the years that they are fucking them over.

    The Tories have not won under 35s since 1987.

    The Tories can win a majority as long as they win most over 45s and probably hold onto power as long as they win over 50s. Even now most people get on the property ladder by 40. They then have assets and so income taxes are less of an issue as they also have an asset's value to protect.

    I doubt Rishi will raise income tax however and I hope he does not
    28 year olds will be 38 in ten years time.
    Ten years later, they will be 48. And with still nearly 15 years left to pay, because the Tories will have retrospectively changed the terms of their loan.

    In the past, people have tended to migrate towards the Tories as they age. In the future, they will have far more reason not to migrate.

    Those who graduated before 2012 will be a diminishing share of the electorate.
    And, of course, parents of those (such as myself) will also be angry.
    And I already have a house, so the Tories don’t have anything to hold out for me. Fuck them.
    They may well be 38 in ten years time, however the Tories can still win a majority even if most of them vote Labour as long as they win most over 45s. Even when they get to 48 and even if most still vote Labour the Tories can still likely win most seats as long as they win most over 50s.

    In the past people have migrated to the Tories as they buy property, they still do today. The one exception was Blair in 1997 who won every generation including over 65s but that was a once in a century landslide defeat for the Tories unlikely ever to be repeated in my lifetime

    And when they’re 52 and would formerly be free of student loan debt and now have ten extra years to go, you think they’ll lunge for the Tories?

    I’ve got property, yet, mysteriously, I have no extra attraction to the Tories. Why should I? What benefit do I get from them? I’ve got my house now.

    Although if people don’t get free of student debt until they’re in their sixties, that’ll affect how much money they have to spend on property.

    And, of course, it’s not winner-takes-all in age groups. If you shift from, say, 45-40 behind in and age group to 55-30 behind, it’s not as if it’s no effect, even though you were losing before and would be losing again.
    By then Labour would likely have been in power and have removed it but the assets they have to protect will outweigh in terms of house value the remaining student loan debt left.

    As far as I can see you are an ideological leftwinger who would never vote Tory, so atypical, I am an ideological rightwinger who voted Tory even as a student, so atypical, I am talking the average voter.

    Nope.
    I voted Tory in 2005 and 2010. And supported the Coalition.
    Most of those who know me would laugh like a drain to hear me described as “an ideological leftwinger.”

    I can expound for hours on the superiority of free markets over state control. If pushed, I would have voted anyone-but-Corbyn both of the last two times. Someone who would be identified on any political spectrum as “Orange Book Liberal or Cameroon Conservative” is NOT who you should be pushing away.

    And describing as an “ideological leftwinger…” Heh.
    That’s funny. I think you tend to identify everyone who disagrees with you as that.
    So you voted Tory when they lost in 2005 and failed to win a majority in 2010 but did not vote Tory when they won majorities in 2015 and 2019. So again you are atypical.

    If you prefer free markets to state control that can just make you a liberal, it does not mean you are a Tory.

    We won a majority of 80 in 2019 when most Orange Book Liberals voted LD as did plenty of Cameron Conservatives because we won UKIP 2015 voters and Labour Leavers.

    According to your implied definition, only the swingiest of swing voters are “typical”
    Your definition has typical voters being a small minority.
    But I doubt you can even recognise that.

    Or that you’ve effectively acknowledged that for parents to ensure their children don’t lose out in life, they have to ensure the Tories are defeated.

    Not that the Tories would suddenly be flavour of the month after their policy is overturned or they lose power.

    Traditionally, the Lib Dems got students. Like traditionally the Tories got people as they aged. Traditions break.

    Just ask Nick Clegg or the Lib Dems how quick it is to be forgiven after screwing over students.
    Normally Labour got students actually, they just went LD under Charles Kennedy in 2005 and in 2010 in a brief protest over Blair's fees. They are back voting Labour again.

    As I pointed out similarly over 55s normally voted Tory but voted for Blair in 1997, then went back to voting Tory again and still vote Tory now
    I am not voting conservative unless they win my vote back, but then you have already excommunicated me along with many more who do not share your 1950 Little Englander outlook
    Given you are a former Blair voting Remainer if Starmer cannot even win you back he may as well pack up and go home
    You are doing a great job of discarding conservatives who have supported the party long before you were even in nappies and you need to realise you are one of the best examples of why not to vote conservative
    You voted Blair in 1997 and 2001, you voted Remain, you are more likely therefore to leave Boris and move to Starmer Labour or the LDs than Labour Leave voters who voted for Boris in 2019. Boris can still win even if he loses you if he keeps most of the latter
    Believe you me if he loses the ones you have already excommunicated the conservative party will not be in office
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    stodge said:


    I am using the ONS mid-2021 population figures. Which are the most accurate numbers for people actually existing.

    The dashboard is (partly) using the NIMS population numbers. Which are less accurate.

    I was also speak of the 1st dose rates.

    You seem curiously interested in perception - why?

    I've had this debate with @Philip_Thompson in the past - it seems absurd the Government's own website should be using inaccurate data. You and he are adamant the ONS numbers are correct yet the website uses NIMS.

    I talk about perception because this website is called Politicalbetting.com.

    Politics is about perception - that's all it is about to be honest. Getting past what people think is the truth to what is actually the truth - the percentage of Muslims in the population, the level of crime in their neighbourhood - is the difficult bit.

    What the public thinks to be true is especially important for a populist Government which wants to be seen to be on the right side of public opinion at all times so perception is very important.

    It's all very well churning out the "facts" on a daily basis but the perceptions people have about cases, deaths, vaccines, mask wearing, social distancing aren't always what the figures would lead you to believe.

    Sometimes we have to step back and ask ourselves how we would convince someone at the bus stop or for @Anabobazina's benefit, someone down the pub, what they believe to be the truth is wrong and the data you present is in fact accurate.
    The government has already admitted that NIMS is an overestimate. Mid-2021 ONS data is clearly the most accurate population projection we have. I don't know why it isn't being used for the lower level data.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    edited October 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the budget there is a real cat and mouse game going on. The government hold the Commons in absolute contempt, used to blame Bercow for raising opposition and surely will soon start casting aspersions on Hoyle.

    Mister Speaker - as the previous title-holder demonstrated - has a wide range of measures available. Whilst Holye - unlike Bercow - isn't likely to make up rules as they go along and freestyle, there are swathes of rules he can deploy to smash down the government.

    It will be interesting to watch when this undoubtedly escalates into open warfare. The Leader of the House used to be the affable chap always quoting Erskine May to defend the rights of backbenchers against the government. How will he object to that very principle being slapped in his face...?

    'Smashed down the government' - bit over the top

    HMG should respect Parliament but the leaks have happened under every government.

    I expect Hoyle will have a go before the statement then the budget will dominate the agenda until COP26

    Bit over the top? The Spectator suggests that the Deputy Speaker simply thank Dishi for his Budget statement when he stands up and hands over to Starmer. And she could.

    Leaks have never - ever - happened on this scale for the budget. The entire budget. Briefed to the press. So that they had 3 days to report the juiciest sections.
    If Starmer's speech team are any good, the leaks ought to make his impossible job much easier. He knows what he's replying to.

    Admittedly, that's a fairly big if.

    Meanwhile, LBC are flagging the student loan thing (i.e. a tax rise that isn't technically a tax rise and magically only affects younger people)... That's not on, is it?
    As HYUFD will point out, young people generally do not vote Tory and are therefore fair game. If they didn't want to be taxed to death they should have voted Tory in 2019 - especially all the ones who were too young. If they had the best interests of the country would stop them now being taxed to death.
    In more seriousness, I’m 48, and not personally affected by this.
    But those arseholes are fucking over my daughters.

    If this does come to pass, I will be angrier with them than for a long time. But it will only last as long as my kids are affected. So, a little over forty years, if the rumours are true.
    And the Tories are going to be hoping that people will migrate to voting for them during the years that they are fucking them over.

    The Tories have not won under 35s since 1987.

    The Tories can win a majority as long as they win most over 45s and probably hold onto power as long as they win over 50s. Even now most people get on the property ladder by 40. They then have assets and so income taxes are less of an issue as they also have an asset's value to protect.

    I doubt Rishi will raise income tax however and I hope he does not
    28 year olds will be 38 in ten years time.
    Ten years later, they will be 48. And with still nearly 15 years left to pay, because the Tories will have retrospectively changed the terms of their loan.

    In the past, people have tended to migrate towards the Tories as they age. In the future, they will have far more reason not to migrate.

    Those who graduated before 2012 will be a diminishing share of the electorate.
    And, of course, parents of those (such as myself) will also be angry.
    And I already have a house, so the Tories don’t have anything to hold out for me. Fuck them.
    They may well be 38 in ten years time, however the Tories can still win a majority even if most of them vote Labour as long as they win most over 45s. Even when they get to 48 and even if most still vote Labour the Tories can still likely win most seats as long as they win most over 50s.

    In the past people have migrated to the Tories as they buy property, they still do today. The one exception was Blair in 1997 who won every generation including over 65s but that was a once in a century landslide defeat for the Tories unlikely ever to be repeated in my lifetime

    And when they’re 52 and would formerly be free of student loan debt and now have ten extra years to go, you think they’ll lunge for the Tories?

    I’ve got property, yet, mysteriously, I have no extra attraction to the Tories. Why should I? What benefit do I get from them? I’ve got my house now.

    Although if people don’t get free of student debt until they’re in their sixties, that’ll affect how much money they have to spend on property.

    And, of course, it’s not winner-takes-all in age groups. If you shift from, say, 45-40 behind in and age group to 55-30 behind, it’s not as if it’s no effect, even though you were losing before and would be losing again.
    By then Labour would likely have been in power and have removed it but the assets they have to protect will outweigh in terms of house value the remaining student loan debt left.

    As far as I can see you are an ideological leftwinger who would never vote Tory, so atypical, I am an ideological rightwinger who voted Tory even as a student, so atypical, I am talking the average voter.

    Nope.
    I voted Tory in 2005 and 2010. And supported the Coalition.
    Most of those who know me would laugh like a drain to hear me described as “an ideological leftwinger.”

    I can expound for hours on the superiority of free markets over state control. If pushed, I would have voted anyone-but-Corbyn both of the last two times. Someone who would be identified on any political spectrum as “Orange Book Liberal or Cameroon Conservative” is NOT who you should be pushing away.

    And describing as an “ideological leftwinger…” Heh.
    That’s funny. I think you tend to identify everyone who disagrees with you as that.
    So you voted Tory when they lost in 2005 and failed to win a majority in 2010 but did not vote Tory when they won majorities in 2015 and 2019. So again you are atypical.

    If you prefer free markets to state control that can just make you a liberal, it does not mean you are a Tory.

    We won a majority of 80 in 2019 when most Orange Book Liberals voted LD as did plenty of Cameron Conservatives because we won UKIP 2015 voters and Labour Leavers.

    According to your implied definition, only the swingiest of swing voters are “typical”
    Your definition has typical voters being a small minority.
    But I doubt you can even recognise that.

    Or that you’ve effectively acknowledged that for parents to ensure their children don’t lose out in life, they have to ensure the Tories are defeated.

    Not that the Tories would suddenly be flavour of the month after their policy is overturned or they lose power.

    Traditionally, the Lib Dems got students. Like traditionally the Tories got people as they aged. Traditions break.

    Just ask Nick Clegg or the Lib Dems how quick it is to be forgiven after screwing over students.
    Normally Labour got students actually, they just went LD under Charles Kennedy in 2005 and in 2010 in a brief protest over Blair's fees. They are back voting Labour again.

    As I pointed out similarly over 55s normally voted Tory but voted for Blair in 1997, then went back to voting Tory again and still vote Tory now
    I am not voting conservative unless they win my vote back, but then you have already excommunicated me along with many more who do not share your 1950 Little Englander outlook
    Given you are a former Blair voting Remainer if Starmer cannot even win you back he may as well pack up and go home
    You are doing a great job of discarding conservatives who have supported the party long before you were even in nappies and you need to realise you are one of the best examples of why not to vote conservative
    You voted Blair in 1997 and 2001, you voted Remain, you are more likely therefore to leave Boris and move to Starmer Labour or the LDs than Labour Leave voters who voted for Boris in 2019. Boris can still win even if he loses you if he keeps most of the latter
    Believe you me if he loses the ones you have already excommunicated the conservative party will not be in office
    As long as he holds those who have always voted Tory and those who voted UKIP in 2015 and Labour Leavers who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 Boris will be re elected with another majority, even if he loses everyone else
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    edited October 2021
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the budget there is a real cat and mouse game going on. The government hold the Commons in absolute contempt, used to blame Bercow for raising opposition and surely will soon start casting aspersions on Hoyle.

    Mister Speaker - as the previous title-holder demonstrated - has a wide range of measures available. Whilst Holye - unlike Bercow - isn't likely to make up rules as they go along and freestyle, there are swathes of rules he can deploy to smash down the government.

    It will be interesting to watch when this undoubtedly escalates into open warfare. The Leader of the House used to be the affable chap always quoting Erskine May to defend the rights of backbenchers against the government. How will he object to that very principle being slapped in his face...?

    'Smashed down the government' - bit over the top

    HMG should respect Parliament but the leaks have happened under every government.

    I expect Hoyle will have a go before the statement then the budget will dominate the agenda until COP26

    Bit over the top? The Spectator suggests that the Deputy Speaker simply thank Dishi for his Budget statement when he stands up and hands over to Starmer. And she could.

    Leaks have never - ever - happened on this scale for the budget. The entire budget. Briefed to the press. So that they had 3 days to report the juiciest sections.
    If Starmer's speech team are any good, the leaks ought to make his impossible job much easier. He knows what he's replying to.

    Admittedly, that's a fairly big if.

    Meanwhile, LBC are flagging the student loan thing (i.e. a tax rise that isn't technically a tax rise and magically only affects younger people)... That's not on, is it?
    As HYUFD will point out, young people generally do not vote Tory and are therefore fair game. If they didn't want to be taxed to death they should have voted Tory in 2019 - especially all the ones who were too young. If they had the best interests of the country would stop them now being taxed to death.
    In more seriousness, I’m 48, and not personally affected by this.
    But those arseholes are fucking over my daughters.

    If this does come to pass, I will be angrier with them than for a long time. But it will only last as long as my kids are affected. So, a little over forty years, if the rumours are true.
    And the Tories are going to be hoping that people will migrate to voting for them during the years that they are fucking them over.

    The Tories have not won under 35s since 1987.

    The Tories can win a majority as long as they win most over 45s and probably hold onto power as long as they win over 50s. Even now most people get on the property ladder by 40. They then have assets and so income taxes are less of an issue as they also have an asset's value to protect.

    I doubt Rishi will raise income tax however and I hope he does not
    28 year olds will be 38 in ten years time.
    Ten years later, they will be 48. And with still nearly 15 years left to pay, because the Tories will have retrospectively changed the terms of their loan.

    In the past, people have tended to migrate towards the Tories as they age. In the future, they will have far more reason not to migrate.

    Those who graduated before 2012 will be a diminishing share of the electorate.
    And, of course, parents of those (such as myself) will also be angry.
    And I already have a house, so the Tories don’t have anything to hold out for me. Fuck them.
    They may well be 38 in ten years time, however the Tories can still win a majority even if most of them vote Labour as long as they win most over 45s. Even when they get to 48 and even if most still vote Labour the Tories can still likely win most seats as long as they win most over 50s.

    In the past people have migrated to the Tories as they buy property, they still do today. The one exception was Blair in 1997 who won every generation including over 65s but that was a once in a century landslide defeat for the Tories unlikely ever to be repeated in my lifetime

    And when they’re 52 and would formerly be free of student loan debt and now have ten extra years to go, you think they’ll lunge for the Tories?

    I’ve got property, yet, mysteriously, I have no extra attraction to the Tories. Why should I? What benefit do I get from them? I’ve got my house now.

    Although if people don’t get free of student debt until they’re in their sixties, that’ll affect how much money they have to spend on property.

    And, of course, it’s not winner-takes-all in age groups. If you shift from, say, 45-40 behind in and age group to 55-30 behind, it’s not as if it’s no effect, even though you were losing before and would be losing again.
    By then Labour would likely have been in power and have removed it but the assets they have to protect will outweigh in terms of house value the remaining student loan debt left.

    As far as I can see you are an ideological leftwinger who would never vote Tory, so atypical, I am an ideological rightwinger who voted Tory even as a student, so atypical, I am talking the average voter.

    Nope.
    I voted Tory in 2005 and 2010. And supported the Coalition.
    Most of those who know me would laugh like a drain to hear me described as “an ideological leftwinger.”

    I can expound for hours on the superiority of free markets over state control. If pushed, I would have voted anyone-but-Corbyn both of the last two times. Someone who would be identified on any political spectrum as “Orange Book Liberal or Cameroon Conservative” is NOT who you should be pushing away.

    And describing as an “ideological leftwinger…” Heh.
    That’s funny. I think you tend to identify everyone who disagrees with you as that.
    So you voted Tory when they lost in 2005 and failed to win a majority in 2010 but did not vote Tory when they won majorities in 2015 and 2019. So again you are atypical.

    If you prefer free markets to state control that can just make you a liberal, it does not mean you are a Tory.

    We won a majority of 80 in 2019 when most Orange Book Liberals voted LD as did plenty of Cameron Conservatives because we won UKIP 2015 voters and Labour Leavers.

    According to your implied definition, only the swingiest of swing voters are “typical”
    Your definition has typical voters being a small minority.
    But I doubt you can even recognise that.

    Or that you’ve effectively acknowledged that for parents to ensure their children don’t lose out in life, they have to ensure the Tories are defeated.

    Not that the Tories would suddenly be flavour of the month after their policy is overturned or they lose power.

    Traditionally, the Lib Dems got students. Like traditionally the Tories got people as they aged. Traditions break.

    Just ask Nick Clegg or the Lib Dems how quick it is to be forgiven after screwing over students.
    Normally Labour got students actually, they just went LD under Charles Kennedy in 2005 and in 2010 in a brief protest over Blair's fees. They are back voting Labour again.

    As I pointed out similarly over 55s normally voted Tory but voted for Blair in 1997, then went back to voting Tory again and still vote Tory now
    I am not voting conservative unless they win my vote back, but then you have already excommunicated me along with many more who do not share your 1950 Little Englander outlook
    1950? He seems to view the Conservatives as the Tory Party of landed gentry, church and state of 1750.
    I picture HYUFD sitting at his keyboard wearing a powdered wig.
    I am certainly keen on old school, traditional coffee houses and centuries old rural inns
  • Options
    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,770

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Thank God schools don’t bother with royal history now. I can think of almost nothing more tedious.

    Blimey, you were lucky never to study trigonometry.
    I loved trigonometry - can still remember SoHCaHToA to this day.
    That's a sine of intelligence.
    You just said that cos you wanted to show off.
    And I wanted to go off at a tangent.
    You are hereby suspended sine die
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,256
    edited October 2021
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the budget there is a real cat and mouse game going on. The government hold the Commons in absolute contempt, used to blame Bercow for raising opposition and surely will soon start casting aspersions on Hoyle.

    Mister Speaker - as the previous title-holder demonstrated - has a wide range of measures available. Whilst Holye - unlike Bercow - isn't likely to make up rules as they go along and freestyle, there are swathes of rules he can deploy to smash down the government.

    It will be interesting to watch when this undoubtedly escalates into open warfare. The Leader of the House used to be the affable chap always quoting Erskine May to defend the rights of backbenchers against the government. How will he object to that very principle being slapped in his face...?

    'Smashed down the government' - bit over the top

    HMG should respect Parliament but the leaks have happened under every government.

    I expect Hoyle will have a go before the statement then the budget will dominate the agenda until COP26

    Bit over the top? The Spectator suggests that the Deputy Speaker simply thank Dishi for his Budget statement when he stands up and hands over to Starmer. And she could.

    Leaks have never - ever - happened on this scale for the budget. The entire budget. Briefed to the press. So that they had 3 days to report the juiciest sections.
    If Starmer's speech team are any good, the leaks ought to make his impossible job much easier. He knows what he's replying to.

    Admittedly, that's a fairly big if.

    Meanwhile, LBC are flagging the student loan thing (i.e. a tax rise that isn't technically a tax rise and magically only affects younger people)... That's not on, is it?
    As HYUFD will point out, young people generally do not vote Tory and are therefore fair game. If they didn't want to be taxed to death they should have voted Tory in 2019 - especially all the ones who were too young. If they had the best interests of the country would stop them now being taxed to death.
    In more seriousness, I’m 48, and not personally affected by this.
    But those arseholes are fucking over my daughters.

    If this does come to pass, I will be angrier with them than for a long time. But it will only last as long as my kids are affected. So, a little over forty years, if the rumours are true.
    And the Tories are going to be hoping that people will migrate to voting for them during the years that they are fucking them over.

    The Tories have not won under 35s since 1987.

    The Tories can win a majority as long as they win most over 45s and probably hold onto power as long as they win over 50s. Even now most people get on the property ladder by 40. They then have assets and so income taxes are less of an issue as they also have an asset's value to protect.

    I doubt Rishi will raise income tax however and I hope he does not
    28 year olds will be 38 in ten years time.
    Ten years later, they will be 48. And with still nearly 15 years left to pay, because the Tories will have retrospectively changed the terms of their loan.

    In the past, people have tended to migrate towards the Tories as they age. In the future, they will have far more reason not to migrate.

    Those who graduated before 2012 will be a diminishing share of the electorate.
    And, of course, parents of those (such as myself) will also be angry.
    And I already have a house, so the Tories don’t have anything to hold out for me. Fuck them.
    They may well be 38 in ten years time, however the Tories can still win a majority even if most of them vote Labour as long as they win most over 45s. Even when they get to 48 and even if most still vote Labour the Tories can still likely win most seats as long as they win most over 50s.

    In the past people have migrated to the Tories as they buy property, they still do today. The one exception was Blair in 1997 who won every generation including over 65s but that was a once in a century landslide defeat for the Tories unlikely ever to be repeated in my lifetime

    And when they’re 52 and would formerly be free of student loan debt and now have ten extra years to go, you think they’ll lunge for the Tories?

    I’ve got property, yet, mysteriously, I have no extra attraction to the Tories. Why should I? What benefit do I get from them? I’ve got my house now.

    Although if people don’t get free of student debt until they’re in their sixties, that’ll affect how much money they have to spend on property.

    And, of course, it’s not winner-takes-all in age groups. If you shift from, say, 45-40 behind in and age group to 55-30 behind, it’s not as if it’s no effect, even though you were losing before and would be losing again.
    By then Labour would likely have been in power and have removed it but the assets they have to protect will outweigh in terms of house value the remaining student loan debt left.

    As far as I can see you are an ideological leftwinger who would never vote Tory, so atypical, I am an ideological rightwinger who voted Tory even as a student, so atypical, I am talking the average voter.

    Nope.
    I voted Tory in 2005 and 2010. And supported the Coalition.
    Most of those who know me would laugh like a drain to hear me described as “an ideological leftwinger.”

    I can expound for hours on the superiority of free markets over state control. If pushed, I would have voted anyone-but-Corbyn both of the last two times. Someone who would be identified on any political spectrum as “Orange Book Liberal or Cameroon Conservative” is NOT who you should be pushing away.

    And describing as an “ideological leftwinger…” Heh.
    That’s funny. I think you tend to identify everyone who disagrees with you as that.
    So you voted Tory when they lost in 2005 and failed to win a majority in 2010 but did not vote Tory when they won majorities in 2015 and 2019. So again you are atypical.

    If you prefer free markets to state control that can just make you a liberal, it does not mean you are a Tory.

    We won a majority of 80 in 2019 when most Orange Book Liberals voted LD as did plenty of Cameron Conservatives because we won UKIP 2015 voters and Labour Leavers.

    According to your implied definition, only the swingiest of swing voters are “typical”
    Your definition has typical voters being a small minority.
    But I doubt you can even recognise that.

    Or that you’ve effectively acknowledged that for parents to ensure their children don’t lose out in life, they have to ensure the Tories are defeated.

    Not that the Tories would suddenly be flavour of the month after their policy is overturned or they lose power.

    Traditionally, the Lib Dems got students. Like traditionally the Tories got people as they aged. Traditions break.

    Just ask Nick Clegg or the Lib Dems how quick it is to be forgiven after screwing over students.
    Normally Labour got students actually, they just went LD under Charles Kennedy in 2005 and in 2010 in a brief protest over Blair's fees. They are back voting Labour again.

    As I pointed out similarly over 55s normally voted Tory but voted for Blair in 1997, then went back to voting Tory again and still vote Tory now
    I am not voting conservative unless they win my vote back, but then you have already excommunicated me along with many more who do not share your 1950 Little Englander outlook
    Given you are a former Blair voting Remainer if Starmer cannot even win you back he may as well pack up and go home
    You are doing a great job of discarding conservatives who have supported the party long before you were even in nappies and you need to realise you are one of the best examples of why not to vote conservative
    You voted Blair in 1997 and 2001, you voted Remain, you are more likely therefore to leave Boris and move to Starmer Labour or the LDs than Labour Leave voters who voted for Boris in 2019. Boris can still win even if he loses you if he keeps most of the latter
    Believe you me if he loses the ones you have already excommunicated the conservative party will not be in office
    As long as he holds those who have always voted Tory and those who voted UKIP in 2015 and Labour Leavers who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 Boris will be re elected with another majority, even if he loses everyone else
    You are not an advert for the conservative party in any shape or form, and you are unique as in my near 50 years involvement with the party here in North Wales I have never met anyone quite so like you, thankfully
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,317

    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    The Tories still getting an absolute hammering over the raw sewage in the oceans and rivers debacle on social media and the news. This is typical of the comment. Nothing to confirm it’s veracity of course. The party media management is totally shambolic.



    https://twitter.com/holnicotenh/status/1452962051211636746?s=21

    Yep.
    49 hours straight into a harbour in Hampshire.
    Nearly 1000 hours into the Thames last year.
    It's no use saying it always happened. Folk don't know that. And they think it stinks. Which it does.
    So time to do something about it. I did hear that there was a clause that woul£ make the water companies responsible for what others might put into the rivers, which seemed odd. I have problem with ratcheting up the pressure get cleaner rivers and seas.
    Although we won’t be stopping all those fish from peeing in the water too...
    The Thames Tideway project, which deals with nearly all of the problem in London is due to be tunnel complete next year and fully in operation in 2025.
  • Options

    Selebian said:

    rpjs said:

    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Third like Charles

    Changing name on becoming king would be such an act of unforced out of touch wankerdom that I am pretty certain he'll do it and be Edward 9 or something.
    George VII would be favourite.

    Charles has unfortunate links to regicides and adulterers, Philip is complicated by the fact nobody is sure whether the other King Philip counts in regnal numbers, and all the Arthurs died before they could take the throne.
    Links to adulterers? I understood it was a bit closer to home than that!

    (Allegedly etc. My main source is 'The Crown')
    Wouldn't the person someone commits adultery with also be an adulterer?
    Good question - I'm not sure. If the other person is unmarried then no? Or do I misunderstand the definition?
    Sometimes the person doesn't know they are committing adultery.

    They don't know the other person is married.
    Or they don’t know they are married;

    [Spoilers for Casablanca]


    Remember the Paris sequence in Casablanca. She thought she was a widow and only found out that her husband was still alive the day she was supposed to leave with Rick.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the budget there is a real cat and mouse game going on. The government hold the Commons in absolute contempt, used to blame Bercow for raising opposition and surely will soon start casting aspersions on Hoyle.

    Mister Speaker - as the previous title-holder demonstrated - has a wide range of measures available. Whilst Holye - unlike Bercow - isn't likely to make up rules as they go along and freestyle, there are swathes of rules he can deploy to smash down the government.

    It will be interesting to watch when this undoubtedly escalates into open warfare. The Leader of the House used to be the affable chap always quoting Erskine May to defend the rights of backbenchers against the government. How will he object to that very principle being slapped in his face...?

    'Smashed down the government' - bit over the top

    HMG should respect Parliament but the leaks have happened under every government.

    I expect Hoyle will have a go before the statement then the budget will dominate the agenda until COP26

    Bit over the top? The Spectator suggests that the Deputy Speaker simply thank Dishi for his Budget statement when he stands up and hands over to Starmer. And she could.

    Leaks have never - ever - happened on this scale for the budget. The entire budget. Briefed to the press. So that they had 3 days to report the juiciest sections.
    If Starmer's speech team are any good, the leaks ought to make his impossible job much easier. He knows what he's replying to.

    Admittedly, that's a fairly big if.

    Meanwhile, LBC are flagging the student loan thing (i.e. a tax rise that isn't technically a tax rise and magically only affects younger people)... That's not on, is it?
    As HYUFD will point out, young people generally do not vote Tory and are therefore fair game. If they didn't want to be taxed to death they should have voted Tory in 2019 - especially all the ones who were too young. If they had the best interests of the country would stop them now being taxed to death.
    In more seriousness, I’m 48, and not personally affected by this.
    But those arseholes are fucking over my daughters.

    If this does come to pass, I will be angrier with them than for a long time. But it will only last as long as my kids are affected. So, a little over forty years, if the rumours are true.
    And the Tories are going to be hoping that people will migrate to voting for them during the years that they are fucking them over.

    The Tories have not won under 35s since 1987.

    The Tories can win a majority as long as they win most over 45s and probably hold onto power as long as they win over 50s. Even now most people get on the property ladder by 40. They then have assets and so income taxes are less of an issue as they also have an asset's value to protect.

    I doubt Rishi will raise income tax however and I hope he does not
    28 year olds will be 38 in ten years time.
    Ten years later, they will be 48. And with still nearly 15 years left to pay, because the Tories will have retrospectively changed the terms of their loan.

    In the past, people have tended to migrate towards the Tories as they age. In the future, they will have far more reason not to migrate.

    Those who graduated before 2012 will be a diminishing share of the electorate.
    And, of course, parents of those (such as myself) will also be angry.
    And I already have a house, so the Tories don’t have anything to hold out for me. Fuck them.
    They may well be 38 in ten years time, however the Tories can still win a majority even if most of them vote Labour as long as they win most over 45s. Even when they get to 48 and even if most still vote Labour the Tories can still likely win most seats as long as they win most over 50s.

    In the past people have migrated to the Tories as they buy property, they still do today. The one exception was Blair in 1997 who won every generation including over 65s but that was a once in a century landslide defeat for the Tories unlikely ever to be repeated in my lifetime

    And when they’re 52 and would formerly be free of student loan debt and now have ten extra years to go, you think they’ll lunge for the Tories?

    I’ve got property, yet, mysteriously, I have no extra attraction to the Tories. Why should I? What benefit do I get from them? I’ve got my house now.

    Although if people don’t get free of student debt until they’re in their sixties, that’ll affect how much money they have to spend on property.

    And, of course, it’s not winner-takes-all in age groups. If you shift from, say, 45-40 behind in and age group to 55-30 behind, it’s not as if it’s no effect, even though you were losing before and would be losing again.
    By then Labour would likely have been in power and have removed it but the assets they have to protect will outweigh in terms of house value the remaining student loan debt left.

    As far as I can see you are an ideological leftwinger who would never vote Tory, so atypical, I am an ideological rightwinger who voted Tory even as a student, so atypical, I am talking the average voter.

    Nope.
    I voted Tory in 2005 and 2010. And supported the Coalition.
    Most of those who know me would laugh like a drain to hear me described as “an ideological leftwinger.”

    I can expound for hours on the superiority of free markets over state control. If pushed, I would have voted anyone-but-Corbyn both of the last two times. Someone who would be identified on any political spectrum as “Orange Book Liberal or Cameroon Conservative” is NOT who you should be pushing away.

    And describing as an “ideological leftwinger…” Heh.
    That’s funny. I think you tend to identify everyone who disagrees with you as that.
    So you voted Tory when they lost in 2005 and failed to win a majority in 2010 but did not vote Tory when they won majorities in 2015 and 2019. So again you are atypical.

    If you prefer free markets to state control that can just make you a liberal, it does not mean you are a Tory.

    We won a majority of 80 in 2019 when most Orange Book Liberals voted LD as did plenty of Cameron Conservatives because we won UKIP 2015 voters and Labour Leavers.

    According to your implied definition, only the swingiest of swing voters are “typical”
    Your definition has typical voters being a small minority.
    But I doubt you can even recognise that.

    Or that you’ve effectively acknowledged that for parents to ensure their children don’t lose out in life, they have to ensure the Tories are defeated.

    Not that the Tories would suddenly be flavour of the month after their policy is overturned or they lose power.

    Traditionally, the Lib Dems got students. Like traditionally the Tories got people as they aged. Traditions break.

    Just ask Nick Clegg or the Lib Dems how quick it is to be forgiven after screwing over students.
    Normally Labour got students actually, they just went LD under Charles Kennedy in 2005 and in 2010 in a brief protest over Blair's fees. They are back voting Labour again.

    As I pointed out similarly over 55s normally voted Tory but voted for Blair in 1997, then went back to voting Tory again and still vote Tory now
    I am not voting conservative unless they win my vote back, but then you have already excommunicated me along with many more who do not share your 1950 Little Englander outlook
    1950? He seems to view the Conservatives as the Tory Party of landed gentry, church and state of 1750.
    Though we don't hear so much about the Church (i.e. no Catholics) these days for some reason.

    More importantly, "go and join the other lot then" was the slogan of a certain type of Jez-loyalist; it's not a healthy sign in a political party.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,468

    Oooh a new referendum.


    Absolute unalloyed joy.

    The British public are in favour of a referendum on the Government’s net zero proposals, a new poll has shown.

    Forty two per cent of adults said they supported a vote on the plan, whilst 30 per cent opposed it, and 28 per cent did not declare a preference, according to a YouGov survey conducted this month.

    When the “don’t knows” were excluded from the results, a majority of 58 per cent wanted a ballot on the issue.

    The survey showed that of those who expressed a preference, more than 50 per cent of each category polled supported a referendum on net zero. This included 18- to 24-year-olds, middle class voters, Londoners, Remainers, both men and women, and Liberal Democrat backers....

    ....The polling was commissioned by Car26.org, a new campaign group calling for a referendum on net zero proposals and a pause in eco regulations until such a ballot is held.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/10/26/britons-want-referendum-no-10s-net-zero-plans-next-general-election/

    Bollocks to that.
    The over sixties will vote to burn the planet rather than be inconvenienced.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,179

    Peston
    @itvpeston

    After #Budget2021 sets out the future for the British economy, Chancellor @RishiSunak will speak to
    @Peston


    An unmissable interview tomorrow Downwards arrow

    Television 𝟭𝟬𝟰𝟱 𝗣𝗠
    @itv

    #peston


    ===

    Translation: At 1045pm the Chancellor will remind people what he reminded the House of Commons at 12:30 he had told Marr on Sunday.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,532
    Just one last thought on the raw sewage debacle; apologies for posting on this again.
    It strikes me that the communities most affected, and pissed off, by the discharge of raw sewage into the sea are coastal communities. And although I haven't done the analysis, I'm pretty confident that the vast majority of those coastal communities have Tory MPs; some by slender margins. Very poor politics by the Tories.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,179
    Nigelb said:

    Oooh a new referendum.


    Absolute unalloyed joy.

    The British public are in favour of a referendum on the Government’s net zero proposals, a new poll has shown.

    Forty two per cent of adults said they supported a vote on the plan, whilst 30 per cent opposed it, and 28 per cent did not declare a preference, according to a YouGov survey conducted this month.

    When the “don’t knows” were excluded from the results, a majority of 58 per cent wanted a ballot on the issue.

    The survey showed that of those who expressed a preference, more than 50 per cent of each category polled supported a referendum on net zero. This included 18- to 24-year-olds, middle class voters, Londoners, Remainers, both men and women, and Liberal Democrat backers....

    ....The polling was commissioned by Car26.org, a new campaign group calling for a referendum on net zero proposals and a pause in eco regulations until such a ballot is held.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/10/26/britons-want-referendum-no-10s-net-zero-plans-next-general-election/

    Bollocks to that.
    The over sixties will vote to burn the planet rather than be inconvenienced.
    Something must be done, as long as it is the bloke down the street doing it and not me.
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Nigelb said:

    Oooh a new referendum.


    Absolute unalloyed joy.

    The British public are in favour of a referendum on the Government’s net zero proposals, a new poll has shown.

    Forty two per cent of adults said they supported a vote on the plan, whilst 30 per cent opposed it, and 28 per cent did not declare a preference, according to a YouGov survey conducted this month.

    When the “don’t knows” were excluded from the results, a majority of 58 per cent wanted a ballot on the issue.

    The survey showed that of those who expressed a preference, more than 50 per cent of each category polled supported a referendum on net zero. This included 18- to 24-year-olds, middle class voters, Londoners, Remainers, both men and women, and Liberal Democrat backers....

    ....The polling was commissioned by Car26.org, a new campaign group calling for a referendum on net zero proposals and a pause in eco regulations until such a ballot is held.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/10/26/britons-want-referendum-no-10s-net-zero-plans-next-general-election/

    Bollocks to that.
    The over sixties will vote to burn the planet rather than be inconvenienced.
    Incinerate not burn
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,179
    philiph said:

    Nigelb said:

    Oooh a new referendum.


    Absolute unalloyed joy.

    The British public are in favour of a referendum on the Government’s net zero proposals, a new poll has shown.

    Forty two per cent of adults said they supported a vote on the plan, whilst 30 per cent opposed it, and 28 per cent did not declare a preference, according to a YouGov survey conducted this month.

    When the “don’t knows” were excluded from the results, a majority of 58 per cent wanted a ballot on the issue.

    The survey showed that of those who expressed a preference, more than 50 per cent of each category polled supported a referendum on net zero. This included 18- to 24-year-olds, middle class voters, Londoners, Remainers, both men and women, and Liberal Democrat backers....

    ....The polling was commissioned by Car26.org, a new campaign group calling for a referendum on net zero proposals and a pause in eco regulations until such a ballot is held.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/10/26/britons-want-referendum-no-10s-net-zero-plans-next-general-election/

    Bollocks to that.
    The over sixties will vote to burn the planet rather than be inconvenienced.
    Incinerate not burn
    The planet will be just fine. Those who live on the biosphere, erm...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    edited October 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the budget there is a real cat and mouse game going on. The government hold the Commons in absolute contempt, used to blame Bercow for raising opposition and surely will soon start casting aspersions on Hoyle.

    Mister Speaker - as the previous title-holder demonstrated - has a wide range of measures available. Whilst Holye - unlike Bercow - isn't likely to make up rules as they go along and freestyle, there are swathes of rules he can deploy to smash down the government.

    It will be interesting to watch when this undoubtedly escalates into open warfare. The Leader of the House used to be the affable chap always quoting Erskine May to defend the rights of backbenchers against the government. How will he object to that very principle being slapped in his face...?

    'Smashed down the government' - bit over the top

    HMG should respect Parliament but the leaks have happened under every government.

    I expect Hoyle will have a go before the statement then the budget will dominate the agenda until COP26

    Bit over the top? The Spectator suggests that the Deputy Speaker simply thank Dishi for his Budget statement when he stands up and hands over to Starmer. And she could.

    Leaks have never - ever - happened on this scale for the budget. The entire budget. Briefed to the press. So that they had 3 days to report the juiciest sections.
    If Starmer's speech team are any good, the leaks ought to make his impossible job much easier. He knows what he's replying to.

    Admittedly, that's a fairly big if.

    Meanwhile, LBC are flagging the student loan thing (i.e. a tax rise that isn't technically a tax rise and magically only affects younger people)... That's not on, is it?
    As HYUFD will point out, young people generally do not vote Tory and are therefore fair game. If they didn't want to be taxed to death they should have voted Tory in 2019 - especially all the ones who were too young. If they had the best interests of the country would stop them now being taxed to death.
    In more seriousness, I’m 48, and not personally affected by this.
    But those arseholes are fucking over my daughters.

    If this does come to pass, I will be angrier with them than for a long time. But it will only last as long as my kids are affected. So, a little over forty years, if the rumours are true.
    And the Tories are going to be hoping that people will migrate to voting for them during the years that they are fucking them over.

    The Tories have not won under 35s since 1987.

    The Tories can win a majority as long as they win most over 45s and probably hold onto power as long as they win over 50s. Even now most people get on the property ladder by 40. They then have assets and so income taxes are less of an issue as they also have an asset's value to protect.

    I doubt Rishi will raise income tax however and I hope he does not
    28 year olds will be 38 in ten years time.
    Ten years later, they will be 48. And with still nearly 15 years left to pay, because the Tories will have retrospectively changed the terms of their loan.

    In the past, people have tended to migrate towards the Tories as they age. In the future, they will have far more reason not to migrate.

    Those who graduated before 2012 will be a diminishing share of the electorate.
    And, of course, parents of those (such as myself) will also be angry.
    And I already have a house, so the Tories don’t have anything to hold out for me. Fuck them.
    They may well be 38 in ten years time, however the Tories can still win a majority even if most of them vote Labour as long as they win most over 45s. Even when they get to 48 and even if most still vote Labour the Tories can still likely win most seats as long as they win most over 50s.

    In the past people have migrated to the Tories as they buy property, they still do today. The one exception was Blair in 1997 who won every generation including over 65s but that was a once in a century landslide defeat for the Tories unlikely ever to be repeated in my lifetime

    And when they’re 52 and would formerly be free of student loan debt and now have ten extra years to go, you think they’ll lunge for the Tories?

    I’ve got property, yet, mysteriously, I have no extra attraction to the Tories. Why should I? What benefit do I get from them? I’ve got my house now.

    Although if people don’t get free of student debt until they’re in their sixties, that’ll affect how much money they have to spend on property.

    And, of course, it’s not winner-takes-all in age groups. If you shift from, say, 45-40 behind in and age group to 55-30 behind, it’s not as if it’s no effect, even though you were losing before and would be losing again.
    By then Labour would likely have been in power and have removed it but the assets they have to protect will outweigh in terms of house value the remaining student loan debt left.

    As far as I can see you are an ideological leftwinger who would never vote Tory, so atypical, I am an ideological rightwinger who voted Tory even as a student, so atypical, I am talking the average voter.

    Nope.
    I voted Tory in 2005 and 2010. And supported the Coalition.
    Most of those who know me would laugh like a drain to hear me described as “an ideological leftwinger.”

    I can expound for hours on the superiority of free markets over state control. If pushed, I would have voted anyone-but-Corbyn both of the last two times. Someone who would be identified on any political spectrum as “Orange Book Liberal or Cameroon Conservative” is NOT who you should be pushing away.

    And describing as an “ideological leftwinger…” Heh.
    That’s funny. I think you tend to identify everyone who disagrees with you as that.
    So you voted Tory when they lost in 2005 and failed to win a majority in 2010 but did not vote Tory when they won majorities in 2015 and 2019. So again you are atypical.

    If you prefer free markets to state control that can just make you a liberal, it does not mean you are a Tory.

    We won a majority of 80 in 2019 when most Orange Book Liberals voted LD as did plenty of Cameron Conservatives because we won UKIP 2015 voters and Labour Leavers.

    According to your implied definition, only the swingiest of swing voters are “typical”
    Your definition has typical voters being a small minority.
    But I doubt you can even recognise that.

    Or that you’ve effectively acknowledged that for parents to ensure their children don’t lose out in life, they have to ensure the Tories are defeated.

    Not that the Tories would suddenly be flavour of the month after their policy is overturned or they lose power.

    Traditionally, the Lib Dems got students. Like traditionally the Tories got people as they aged. Traditions break.

    Just ask Nick Clegg or the Lib Dems how quick it is to be forgiven after screwing over students.
    Normally Labour got students actually, they just went LD under Charles Kennedy in 2005 and in 2010 in a brief protest over Blair's fees. They are back voting Labour again.

    As I pointed out similarly over 55s normally voted Tory but voted for Blair in 1997, then went back to voting Tory again and still vote Tory now
    I am not voting conservative unless they win my vote back, but then you have already excommunicated me along with many more who do not share your 1950 Little Englander outlook
    1950? He seems to view the Conservatives as the Tory Party of landed gentry, church and state of 1750.
    Though we don't hear so much about the Church (i.e. no Catholics) these days for some reason.

    More importantly, "go and join the other lot then" was the slogan of a certain type of Jez-loyalist; it's not a healthy sign in a political party.
    The Tories are a broader church as far as religion goes now, we had our first Catholic leader in IDS in 2001 and now have our second in Boris, the first Catholic PM in office, JRM is Roman Catholic as well. The Tories even won Catholics in 2019 even though Corbyn won them in 2017.

    However our core vote still remains Anglicans and Protestant evangelicals who the Tories won in 2017 and 2019. Jews also now vote Tory when they used to vote Labour with Howard in 2003 the first practicing Jewish Tory leader.

    Muslims and atheists however tend to be part of Labour's core vote, Corbyn won them in both 2017 and 2019
  • Options

    Just one last thought on the raw sewage debacle; apologies for posting on this again.
    It strikes me that the communities most affected, and pissed off, by the discharge of raw sewage into the sea are coastal communities. And although I haven't done the analysis, I'm pretty confident that the vast majority of those coastal communities have Tory MPs; some by slender margins. Very poor politics by the Tories.

    I think you're right about the costal thing- there are Brexity fishermen who flipped quite a few seats over the last couple of GEs.

    It's one of the curious things about this very populist government, though. They seem to have ears of tin and feet of lead for this sort of thing. (We saw something similar with the not-school lunches last year.)

    An issue comes up, the opposition make hay with it, the government tries to be strong, backbenchers go over the top to defend the indefensible, then a few days later the government climbs down. But at least some people will remember the bit where the government said it would do something awful.

    Like you say, poor politics, and it seems to be something habitual or structural.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952

    Just one last thought on the raw sewage debacle; apologies for posting on this again.
    It strikes me that the communities most affected, and pissed off, by the discharge of raw sewage into the sea are coastal communities. And although I haven't done the analysis, I'm pretty confident that the vast majority of those coastal communities have Tory MPs; some by slender margins. Very poor politics by the Tories.

    I think you're right about the costal thing- there are Brexity fishermen who flipped quite a few seats over the last couple of GEs.

    It's one of the curious things about this very populist government, though. They seem to have ears of tin and feet of lead for this sort of thing. (We saw something similar with the not-school lunches last year.)

    An issue comes up, the opposition make hay with it, the government tries to be strong, backbenchers go over the top to defend the indefensible, then a few days later the government climbs down. But at least some people will remember the bit where the government said it would do something awful.

    Like you say, poor politics, and it seems to be something habitual or structural.
    If they are looking for advice, I would charge pretty reasonable rates for suggesting raw sewage discharge may prove not to be overly popular.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,967
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the budget there is a real cat and mouse game going on. The government hold the Commons in absolute contempt, used to blame Bercow for raising opposition and surely will soon start casting aspersions on Hoyle.

    Mister Speaker - as the previous title-holder demonstrated - has a wide range of measures available. Whilst Holye - unlike Bercow - isn't likely to make up rules as they go along and freestyle, there are swathes of rules he can deploy to smash down the government.

    It will be interesting to watch when this undoubtedly escalates into open warfare. The Leader of the House used to be the affable chap always quoting Erskine May to defend the rights of backbenchers against the government. How will he object to that very principle being slapped in his face...?

    'Smashed down the government' - bit over the top

    HMG should respect Parliament but the leaks have happened under every government.

    I expect Hoyle will have a go before the statement then the budget will dominate the agenda until COP26

    Bit over the top? The Spectator suggests that the Deputy Speaker simply thank Dishi for his Budget statement when he stands up and hands over to Starmer. And she could.

    Leaks have never - ever - happened on this scale for the budget. The entire budget. Briefed to the press. So that they had 3 days to report the juiciest sections.
    If Starmer's speech team are any good, the leaks ought to make his impossible job much easier. He knows what he's replying to.

    Admittedly, that's a fairly big if.

    Meanwhile, LBC are flagging the student loan thing (i.e. a tax rise that isn't technically a tax rise and magically only affects younger people)... That's not on, is it?
    As HYUFD will point out, young people generally do not vote Tory and are therefore fair game. If they didn't want to be taxed to death they should have voted Tory in 2019 - especially all the ones who were too young. If they had the best interests of the country would stop them now being taxed to death.
    In more seriousness, I’m 48, and not personally affected by this.
    But those arseholes are fucking over my daughters.

    If this does come to pass, I will be angrier with them than for a long time. But it will only last as long as my kids are affected. So, a little over forty years, if the rumours are true.
    And the Tories are going to be hoping that people will migrate to voting for them during the years that they are fucking them over.

    The Tories have not won under 35s since 1987.

    The Tories can win a majority as long as they win most over 45s and probably hold onto power as long as they win over 50s. Even now most people get on the property ladder by 40. They then have assets and so income taxes are less of an issue as they also have an asset's value to protect.

    I doubt Rishi will raise income tax however and I hope he does not
    28 year olds will be 38 in ten years time.
    Ten years later, they will be 48. And with still nearly 15 years left to pay, because the Tories will have retrospectively changed the terms of their loan.

    In the past, people have tended to migrate towards the Tories as they age. In the future, they will have far more reason not to migrate.

    Those who graduated before 2012 will be a diminishing share of the electorate.
    And, of course, parents of those (such as myself) will also be angry.
    And I already have a house, so the Tories don’t have anything to hold out for me. Fuck them.
    They may well be 38 in ten years time, however the Tories can still win a majority even if most of them vote Labour as long as they win most over 45s. Even when they get to 48 and even if most still vote Labour the Tories can still likely win most seats as long as they win most over 50s.

    In the past people have migrated to the Tories as they buy property, they still do today. The one exception was Blair in 1997 who won every generation including over 65s but that was a once in a century landslide defeat for the Tories unlikely ever to be repeated in my lifetime

    And when they’re 52 and would formerly be free of student loan debt and now have ten extra years to go, you think they’ll lunge for the Tories?

    I’ve got property, yet, mysteriously, I have no extra attraction to the Tories. Why should I? What benefit do I get from them? I’ve got my house now.

    Although if people don’t get free of student debt until they’re in their sixties, that’ll affect how much money they have to spend on property.

    And, of course, it’s not winner-takes-all in age groups. If you shift from, say, 45-40 behind in and age group to 55-30 behind, it’s not as if it’s no effect, even though you were losing before and would be losing again.
    By then Labour would likely have been in power and have removed it but the assets they have to protect will outweigh in terms of house value the remaining student loan debt left.

    As far as I can see you are an ideological leftwinger who would never vote Tory, so atypical, I am an ideological rightwinger who voted Tory even as a student, so atypical, I am talking the average voter.

    Nope.
    I voted Tory in 2005 and 2010. And supported the Coalition.
    Most of those who know me would laugh like a drain to hear me described as “an ideological leftwinger.”

    I can expound for hours on the superiority of free markets over state control. If pushed, I would have voted anyone-but-Corbyn both of the last two times. Someone who would be identified on any political spectrum as “Orange Book Liberal or Cameroon Conservative” is NOT who you should be pushing away.

    And describing as an “ideological leftwinger…” Heh.
    That’s funny. I think you tend to identify everyone who disagrees with you as that.
    So you voted Tory when they lost in 2005 and failed to win a majority in 2010 but did not vote Tory when they won majorities in 2015 and 2019. So again you are atypical.

    If you prefer free markets to state control that can just make you a liberal, it does not mean you are a Tory.

    We won a majority of 80 in 2019 when most Orange Book Liberals voted LD as did plenty of Cameron Conservatives because we won UKIP 2015 voters and Labour Leavers.

    According to your implied definition, only the swingiest of swing voters are “typical”
    Your definition has typical voters being a small minority.
    But I doubt you can even recognise that.

    Or that you’ve effectively acknowledged that for parents to ensure their children don’t lose out in life, they have to ensure the Tories are defeated.

    Not that the Tories would suddenly be flavour of the month after their policy is overturned or they lose power.

    Traditionally, the Lib Dems got students. Like traditionally the Tories got people as they aged. Traditions break.

    Just ask Nick Clegg or the Lib Dems how quick it is to be forgiven after screwing over students.
    Normally Labour got students actually, they just went LD under Charles Kennedy in 2005 and in 2010 in a brief protest over Blair's fees. They are back voting Labour again.

    As I pointed out similarly over 55s normally voted Tory but voted for Blair in 1997, then went back to voting Tory again and still vote Tory now
    I am not voting conservative unless they win my vote back, but then you have already excommunicated me along with many more who do not share your 1950 Little Englander outlook
    1950? He seems to view the Conservatives as the Tory Party of landed gentry, church and state of 1750.
    I picture HYUFD sitting at his keyboard wearing a powdered wig.
    Pressing the keyboard with a quill pen.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,468
    edited October 2021
    sarissa said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Thank God schools don’t bother with royal history now. I can think of almost nothing more tedious.

    Blimey, you were lucky never to study trigonometry.
    I loved trigonometry - can still remember SoHCaHToA to this day.
    That's a sine of intelligence.
    You just said that cos you wanted to show off.
    And I wanted to go off at a tangent.
    You are hereby suspended sine die
    That seems an obtuse reflex action.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Just one last thought on the raw sewage debacle; apologies for posting on this again.
    It strikes me that the communities most affected, and pissed off, by the discharge of raw sewage into the sea are coastal communities. And although I haven't done the analysis, I'm pretty confident that the vast majority of those coastal communities have Tory MPs; some by slender margins. Very poor politics by the Tories.

    I think you're right about the costal thing- there are Brexity fishermen who flipped quite a few seats over the last couple of GEs.

    It's one of the curious things about this very populist government, though. They seem to have ears of tin and feet of lead for this sort of thing. (We saw something similar with the not-school lunches last year.)

    An issue comes up, the opposition make hay with it, the government tries to be strong, backbenchers go over the top to defend the indefensible, then a few days later the government climbs down. But at least some people will remember the bit where the government said it would do something awful.

    Like you say, poor politics, and it seems to be something habitual or structural.
    Let them eat cake hake cack!
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    edited October 2021

    Just one last thought on the raw sewage debacle; apologies for posting on this again.
    It strikes me that the communities most affected, and pissed off, by the discharge of raw sewage into the sea are coastal communities. And although I haven't done the analysis, I'm pretty confident that the vast majority of those coastal communities have Tory MPs; some by slender margins. Very poor politics by the Tories.

    I think you're right about the costal thing- there are Brexity fishermen who flipped quite a few seats over the last couple of GEs.

    It's one of the curious things about this very populist government, though. They seem to have ears of tin and feet of lead for this sort of thing. (We saw something similar with the not-school lunches last year.)

    An issue comes up, the opposition make hay with it, the government tries to be strong, backbenchers go over the top to defend the indefensible, then a few days later the government climbs down. But at least some people will remember the bit where the government said it would do something awful.

    Like you say, poor politics, and it seems to be something habitual or structural.
    I think the reflex is to dismiss an issue as Twitter bubble if a. It appears mainly on social media, b. The people shouting most loudly about it are what they perceive as the metropolitan remoaners. It blinds them to the salience of the actual issue at hand. Hence they get it right sometimes, and woefully wrong at other times.

    Shit being dumped in the sea is such a physical, tangible, easily imagined thing it’s the perfect environmental cause célèbre. It’s also easy to compare the UK unfavourably with our neighbours. It’s up there with peat cutting or paving over wetlands in the visible despoiling stakes. The kind of thing there can never be too much noise made about, because there is no such thing as too little water pollution.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    geoffw said:

    Farooq said:

    Thank God schools don’t bother with royal history now. I can think of almost nothing more tedious.

    It's slightly useful to give you a hook onto which you can hang the interesting history. For instance, the history of the church pivots on Henry VIII and the reason Alfred burned the cakes, if that even happened, was because he was on the run from the Danes. So it all links in. That said, you're right. It's dull as fuck just on its own.
    Move over history, it's herstory now.

    As in, herstory is nearly finished?
    Move over, Babs. It's time for Charles the Thick.
    Charles is not thick, in fact he will probably be our brightest monarch since Edward VIIth and our first Oxbridge graduate on the throne since his great great grandfather too who also had a reasonable but short reign overshadowed by that of his mother and son
    So you're saying the queen is thick? To the tower with you, young man. To the tower.
    Not thick, just not an intellectual like Charles
    Charles really isn’t that bright. He’s moderately intelligent, well read but few original thoughts. So much like the average person.
    Unfortunately, what he read was Laurens van der Post.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,403

    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    The Tories still getting an absolute hammering over the raw sewage in the oceans and rivers debacle on social media and the news. This is typical of the comment. Nothing to confirm it’s veracity of course. The party media management is totally shambolic.



    https://twitter.com/holnicotenh/status/1452962051211636746?s=21

    Yep.
    49 hours straight into a harbour in Hampshire.
    Nearly 1000 hours into the Thames last year.
    It's no use saying it always happened. Folk don't know that. And they think it stinks. Which it does.
    So time to do something about it. I did hear that there was a clause that woul£ make the water companies responsible for what others might put into the rivers, which seemed odd. I have problem with ratcheting up the pressure get cleaner rivers and seas.
    Although we won’t be stopping all those fish from peeing in the water too...
    On the others bit, I haven't read it but suspect it was to prevent the water companies simply outsourcing to acme sewage Co who might have questionable practices and therefore avoiding direct liability themselves. May have been badly drafted to catch other eventualities. It wouldn't be the first time...
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,593
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the budget there is a real cat and mouse game going on. The government hold the Commons in absolute contempt, used to blame Bercow for raising opposition and surely will soon start casting aspersions on Hoyle.

    Mister Speaker - as the previous title-holder demonstrated - has a wide range of measures available. Whilst Holye - unlike Bercow - isn't likely to make up rules as they go along and freestyle, there are swathes of rules he can deploy to smash down the government.

    It will be interesting to watch when this undoubtedly escalates into open warfare. The Leader of the House used to be the affable chap always quoting Erskine May to defend the rights of backbenchers against the government. How will he object to that very principle being slapped in his face...?

    'Smashed down the government' - bit over the top

    HMG should respect Parliament but the leaks have happened under every government.

    I expect Hoyle will have a go before the statement then the budget will dominate the agenda until COP26

    Bit over the top? The Spectator suggests that the Deputy Speaker simply thank Dishi for his Budget statement when he stands up and hands over to Starmer. And she could.

    Leaks have never - ever - happened on this scale for the budget. The entire budget. Briefed to the press. So that they had 3 days to report the juiciest sections.
    If Starmer's speech team are any good, the leaks ought to make his impossible job much easier. He knows what he's replying to.

    Admittedly, that's a fairly big if.

    Meanwhile, LBC are flagging the student loan thing (i.e. a tax rise that isn't technically a tax rise and magically only affects younger people)... That's not on, is it?
    As HYUFD will point out, young people generally do not vote Tory and are therefore fair game. If they didn't want to be taxed to death they should have voted Tory in 2019 - especially all the ones who were too young. If they had the best interests of the country would stop them now being taxed to death.
    In more seriousness, I’m 48, and not personally affected by this.
    But those arseholes are fucking over my daughters.

    If this does come to pass, I will be angrier with them than for a long time. But it will only last as long as my kids are affected. So, a little over forty years, if the rumours are true.
    And the Tories are going to be hoping that people will migrate to voting for them during the years that they are fucking them over.

    The Tories have not won under 35s since 1987.

    The Tories can win a majority as long as they win most over 45s and probably hold onto power as long as they win over 50s. Even now most people get on the property ladder by 40. They then have assets and so income taxes are less of an issue as they also have an asset's value to protect.

    I doubt Rishi will raise income tax however and I hope he does not
    28 year olds will be 38 in ten years time.
    Ten years later, they will be 48. And with still nearly 15 years left to pay, because the Tories will have retrospectively changed the terms of their loan.

    In the past, people have tended to migrate towards the Tories as they age. In the future, they will have far more reason not to migrate.

    Those who graduated before 2012 will be a diminishing share of the electorate.
    And, of course, parents of those (such as myself) will also be angry.
    And I already have a house, so the Tories don’t have anything to hold out for me. Fuck them.
    They may well be 38 in ten years time, however the Tories can still win a majority even if most of them vote Labour as long as they win most over 45s. Even when they get to 48 and even if most still vote Labour the Tories can still likely win most seats as long as they win most over 50s.

    In the past people have migrated to the Tories as they buy property, they still do today. The one exception was Blair in 1997 who won every generation including over 65s but that was a once in a century landslide defeat for the Tories unlikely ever to be repeated in my lifetime

    And when they’re 52 and would formerly be free of student loan debt and now have ten extra years to go, you think they’ll lunge for the Tories?

    I’ve got property, yet, mysteriously, I have no extra attraction to the Tories. Why should I? What benefit do I get from them? I’ve got my house now.

    Although if people don’t get free of student debt until they’re in their sixties, that’ll affect how much money they have to spend on property.

    And, of course, it’s not winner-takes-all in age groups. If you shift from, say, 45-40 behind in and age group to 55-30 behind, it’s not as if it’s no effect, even though you were losing before and would be losing again.
    By then Labour would likely have been in power and have removed it but the assets they have to protect will outweigh in terms of house value the remaining student loan debt left.

    As far as I can see you are an ideological leftwinger who would never vote Tory, so atypical, I am an ideological rightwinger who voted Tory even as a student, so atypical, I am talking the average voter.

    Nope.
    I voted Tory in 2005 and 2010. And supported the Coalition.
    Most of those who know me would laugh like a drain to hear me described as “an ideological leftwinger.”

    I can expound for hours on the superiority of free markets over state control. If pushed, I would have voted anyone-but-Corbyn both of the last two times. Someone who would be identified on any political spectrum as “Orange Book Liberal or Cameroon Conservative” is NOT who you should be pushing away.

    And describing as an “ideological leftwinger…” Heh.
    That’s funny. I think you tend to identify everyone who disagrees with you as that.
    So you voted Tory when they lost in 2005 and failed to win a majority in 2010 but did not vote Tory when they won majorities in 2015 and 2019. So again you are atypical.

    If you prefer free markets to state control that can just make you a liberal, it does not mean you are a Tory.

    We won a majority of 80 in 2019 when most Orange Book Liberals voted LD as did plenty of Cameron Conservatives because we won UKIP 2015 voters and Labour Leavers.

    According to your implied definition, only the swingiest of swing voters are “typical”
    Your definition has typical voters being a small minority.
    But I doubt you can even recognise that.

    Or that you’ve effectively acknowledged that for parents to ensure their children don’t lose out in life, they have to ensure the Tories are defeated.

    Not that the Tories would suddenly be flavour of the month after their policy is overturned or they lose power.

    Traditionally, the Lib Dems got students. Like traditionally the Tories got people as they aged. Traditions break.

    Just ask Nick Clegg or the Lib Dems how quick it is to be forgiven after screwing over students.
    Normally Labour got students actually, they just went LD under Charles Kennedy in 2005 and in 2010 in a brief protest over Blair's fees. They are back voting Labour again.

    As I pointed out similarly over 55s normally voted Tory but voted for Blair in 1997, then went back to voting Tory again and still vote Tory now
    I am not voting conservative unless they win my vote back, but then you have already excommunicated me along with many more who do not share your 1950 Little Englander outlook
    1950? He seems to view the Conservatives as the Tory Party of landed gentry, church and state of 1750.
    Though we don't hear so much about the Church (i.e. no Catholics) these days for some reason.

    More importantly, "go and join the other lot then" was the slogan of a certain type of Jez-loyalist; it's not a healthy sign in a political party.
    The Tories are a broader church as far as religion goes now, we had our first Catholic leader in IDS in 2001 and now have our second in Boris, the first Catholic PM in office, JRM is Roman Catholic as well. The Tories even won Catholics in 2019 even though Corbyn won them in 2017.

    However our core vote still remains Anglicans and Protestant evangelicals who the Tories won in 2017 and 2019. Jews also now vote Tory when they used to vote Labour with Howard in 2003 the first practicing Jewish Tory leader.

    Muslims and atheists however tend to be part of Labour's core vote, Corbyn won them in both 2017 and 2019
    So are Catholic Atheists more Labour leaning than Protestant Atheists?

    Thank Christ that we are not a nation where religion is not a strong indicator of voting intention.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    rpjs said:

    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Third like Charles

    Changing name on becoming king would be such an act of unforced out of touch wankerdom that I am pretty certain he'll do it and be Edward 9 or something.
    George VII would be favourite.

    Charles has unfortunate links to regicides and adulterers, Philip is complicated by the fact nobody is sure whether the other King Philip counts in regnal numbers, and all the Arthurs died before they could take the throne.
    Links to adulterers? I understood it was a bit closer to home than that!

    (Allegedly etc. My main source is 'The Crown')
    Wouldn't the person someone commits adultery with also be an adulterer?
    Not necessarily.

    Adultery is sleeping with someone who is not your spouse, no? The person one commits adultery with - assuming they are not married - is not committing adultery.

    Likewise, it's not premarital sex if you never get married.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    rcs1000 said:

    rpjs said:

    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Third like Charles

    Changing name on becoming king would be such an act of unforced out of touch wankerdom that I am pretty certain he'll do it and be Edward 9 or something.
    George VII would be favourite.

    Charles has unfortunate links to regicides and adulterers, Philip is complicated by the fact nobody is sure whether the other King Philip counts in regnal numbers, and all the Arthurs died before they could take the throne.
    Links to adulterers? I understood it was a bit closer to home than that!

    (Allegedly etc. My main source is 'The Crown')
    Wouldn't the person someone commits adultery with also be an adulterer?
    Not necessarily.

    Adultery is sleeping with someone who is not your spouse, no? The person one commits adultery with - assuming they are not married - is not committing adultery.

    Likewise, it's not premarital sex if you never get married.
    It's not adultery if [...legal notice: some words removed...], like Andrew
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,705

    And was HRH the Prince of Wales’s work marked anonymously?

    I would be amazed if any Royal's work was marked anonymously.
    I expect their grade is boosted by at least one.

  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    And was HRH the Prince of Wales’s work marked anonymously?

    I would be amazed if any Royal's work was marked anonymously.
    I expect their grade is boosted by at least one.

    I'd be more concerned about the anonymity of the marker, after giving a score of 2:2. That sort of thing [...legal notice: some words removed...] Parisian tunnel.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    edited October 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the budget there is a real cat and mouse game going on. The government hold the Commons in absolute contempt, used to blame Bercow for raising opposition and surely will soon start casting aspersions on Hoyle.

    Mister Speaker - as the previous title-holder demonstrated - has a wide range of measures available. Whilst Holye - unlike Bercow - isn't likely to make up rules as they go along and freestyle, there are swathes of rules he can deploy to smash down the government.

    It will be interesting to watch when this undoubtedly escalates into open warfare. The Leader of the House used to be the affable chap always quoting Erskine May to defend the rights of backbenchers against the government. How will he object to that very principle being slapped in his face...?

    'Smashed down the government' - bit over the top

    HMG should respect Parliament but the leaks have happened under every government.

    I expect Hoyle will have a go before the statement then the budget will dominate the agenda until COP26

    Bit over the top? The Spectator suggests that the Deputy Speaker simply thank Dishi for his Budget statement when he stands up and hands over to Starmer. And she could.

    Leaks have never - ever - happened on this scale for the budget. The entire budget. Briefed to the press. So that they had 3 days to report the juiciest sections.
    If Starmer's speech team are any good, the leaks ought to make his impossible job much easier. He knows what he's replying to.

    Admittedly, that's a fairly big if.

    Meanwhile, LBC are flagging the student loan thing (i.e. a tax rise that isn't technically a tax rise and magically only affects younger people)... That's not on, is it?
    As HYUFD will point out, young people generally do not vote Tory and are therefore fair game. If they didn't want to be taxed to death they should have voted Tory in 2019 - especially all the ones who were too young. If they had the best interests of the country would stop them now being taxed to death.
    In more seriousness, I’m 48, and not personally affected by this.
    But those arseholes are fucking over my daughters.

    If this does come to pass, I will be angrier with them than for a long time. But it will only last as long as my kids are affected. So, a little over forty years, if the rumours are true.
    And the Tories are going to be hoping that people will migrate to voting for them during the years that they are fucking them over.

    The Tories have not won under 35s since 1987.

    The Tories can win a majority as long as they win most over 45s and probably hold onto power as long as they win over 50s. Even now most people get on the property ladder by 40. They then have assets and so income taxes are less of an issue as they also have an asset's value to protect.

    I doubt Rishi will raise income tax however and I hope he does not
    28 year olds will be 38 in ten years time.
    Ten years later, they will be 48. And with still nearly 15 years left to pay, because the Tories will have retrospectively changed the terms of their loan.

    In the past, people have tended to migrate towards the Tories as they age. In the future, they will have far more reason not to migrate.

    Those who graduated before 2012 will be a diminishing share of the electorate.
    And, of course, parents of those (such as myself) will also be angry.
    And I already have a house, so the Tories don’t have anything to hold out for me. Fuck them.
    They may well be 38 in ten years time, however the Tories can still win a majority even if most of them vote Labour as long as they win most over 45s. Even when they get to 48 and even if most still vote Labour the Tories can still likely win most seats as long as they win most over 50s.

    In the past people have migrated to the Tories as they buy property, they still do today. The one exception was Blair in 1997 who won every generation including over 65s but that was a once in a century landslide defeat for the Tories unlikely ever to be repeated in my lifetime

    And when they’re 52 and would formerly be free of student loan debt and now have ten extra years to go, you think they’ll lunge for the Tories?

    I’ve got property, yet, mysteriously, I have no extra attraction to the Tories. Why should I? What benefit do I get from them? I’ve got my house now.

    Although if people don’t get free of student debt until they’re in their sixties, that’ll affect how much money they have to spend on property.

    And, of course, it’s not winner-takes-all in age groups. If you shift from, say, 45-40 behind in and age group to 55-30 behind, it’s not as if it’s no effect, even though you were losing before and would be losing again.
    By then Labour would likely have been in power and have removed it but the assets they have to protect will outweigh in terms of house value the remaining student loan debt left.

    As far as I can see you are an ideological leftwinger who would never vote Tory, so atypical, I am an ideological rightwinger who voted Tory even as a student, so atypical, I am talking the average voter.

    Nope.
    I voted Tory in 2005 and 2010. And supported the Coalition.
    Most of those who know me would laugh like a drain to hear me described as “an ideological leftwinger.”

    I can expound for hours on the superiority of free markets over state control. If pushed, I would have voted anyone-but-Corbyn both of the last two times. Someone who would be identified on any political spectrum as “Orange Book Liberal or Cameroon Conservative” is NOT who you should be pushing away.

    And describing as an “ideological leftwinger…” Heh.
    That’s funny. I think you tend to identify everyone who disagrees with you as that.
    So you voted Tory when they lost in 2005 and failed to win a majority in 2010 but did not vote Tory when they won majorities in 2015 and 2019. So again you are atypical.

    If you prefer free markets to state control that can just make you a liberal, it does not mean you are a Tory.

    We won a majority of 80 in 2019 when most Orange Book Liberals voted LD as did plenty of Cameron Conservatives because we won UKIP 2015 voters and Labour Leavers.

    According to your implied definition, only the swingiest of swing voters are “typical”
    Your definition has typical voters being a small minority.
    But I doubt you can even recognise that.

    Or that you’ve effectively acknowledged that for parents to ensure their children don’t lose out in life, they have to ensure the Tories are defeated.

    Not that the Tories would suddenly be flavour of the month after their policy is overturned or they lose power.

    Traditionally, the Lib Dems got students. Like traditionally the Tories got people as they aged. Traditions break.

    Just ask Nick Clegg or the Lib Dems how quick it is to be forgiven after screwing over students.
    Normally Labour got students actually, they just went LD under Charles Kennedy in 2005 and in 2010 in a brief protest over Blair's fees. They are back voting Labour again.

    As I pointed out similarly over 55s normally voted Tory but voted for Blair in 1997, then went back to voting Tory again and still vote Tory now
    I am not voting conservative unless they win my vote back, but then you have already excommunicated me along with many more who do not share your 1950 Little Englander outlook
    1950? He seems to view the Conservatives as the Tory Party of landed gentry, church and state of 1750.
    Though we don't hear so much about the Church (i.e. no Catholics) these days for some reason.

    More importantly, "go and join the other lot then" was the slogan of a certain type of Jez-loyalist; it's not a healthy sign in a political party.
    The Tories are a broader church as far as religion goes now, we had our first Catholic leader in IDS in 2001 and now have our second in Boris, the first Catholic PM in office, JRM is Roman Catholic as well. The Tories even won Catholics in 2019 even though Corbyn won them in 2017.

    However our core vote still remains Anglicans and Protestant evangelicals who the Tories won in 2017 and 2019. Jews also now vote Tory when they used to vote Labour with Howard in 2003 the first practicing Jewish Tory leader.

    Muslims and atheists however tend to be part of Labour's core vote, Corbyn won them in both 2017 and 2019
    So are Catholic Atheists more Labour leaning than Protestant Atheists?

    Thank Christ that we are not a nation where religion is not a strong indicator of voting intention.
    I would imagine Catholic heritage atheists and agnostics are more Labour or SNP leaning than Protestant heritage atheists and agnostics yes, especially as the former will more often come from Labour leaning areas like Liverpool, Salford, inner London, Birmingham and SNP leaning and formerly Labour leaning areas like Paisley and Glasgow
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,447
    Why have I had to wade through 27 puns from people who have all painted themselves into various corners?
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the budget there is a real cat and mouse game going on. The government hold the Commons in absolute contempt, used to blame Bercow for raising opposition and surely will soon start casting aspersions on Hoyle.

    Mister Speaker - as the previous title-holder demonstrated - has a wide range of measures available. Whilst Holye - unlike Bercow - isn't likely to make up rules as they go along and freestyle, there are swathes of rules he can deploy to smash down the government.

    It will be interesting to watch when this undoubtedly escalates into open warfare. The Leader of the House used to be the affable chap always quoting Erskine May to defend the rights of backbenchers against the government. How will he object to that very principle being slapped in his face...?

    'Smashed down the government' - bit over the top

    HMG should respect Parliament but the leaks have happened under every government.

    I expect Hoyle will have a go before the statement then the budget will dominate the agenda until COP26

    Bit over the top? The Spectator suggests that the Deputy Speaker simply thank Dishi for his Budget statement when he stands up and hands over to Starmer. And she could.

    Leaks have never - ever - happened on this scale for the budget. The entire budget. Briefed to the press. So that they had 3 days to report the juiciest sections.
    If Starmer's speech team are any good, the leaks ought to make his impossible job much easier. He knows what he's replying to.

    Admittedly, that's a fairly big if.

    Meanwhile, LBC are flagging the student loan thing (i.e. a tax rise that isn't technically a tax rise and magically only affects younger people)... That's not on, is it?
    As HYUFD will point out, young people generally do not vote Tory and are therefore fair game. If they didn't want to be taxed to death they should have voted Tory in 2019 - especially all the ones who were too young. If they had the best interests of the country would stop them now being taxed to death.
    In more seriousness, I’m 48, and not personally affected by this.
    But those arseholes are fucking over my daughters.

    If this does come to pass, I will be angrier with them than for a long time. But it will only last as long as my kids are affected. So, a little over forty years, if the rumours are true.
    And the Tories are going to be hoping that people will migrate to voting for them during the years that they are fucking them over.

    The Tories have not won under 35s since 1987.

    The Tories can win a majority as long as they win most over 45s and probably hold onto power as long as they win over 50s. Even now most people get on the property ladder by 40. They then have assets and so income taxes are less of an issue as they also have an asset's value to protect.

    I doubt Rishi will raise income tax however and I hope he does not
    28 year olds will be 38 in ten years time.
    Ten years later, they will be 48. And with still nearly 15 years left to pay, because the Tories will have retrospectively changed the terms of their loan.

    In the past, people have tended to migrate towards the Tories as they age. In the future, they will have far more reason not to migrate.

    Those who graduated before 2012 will be a diminishing share of the electorate.
    And, of course, parents of those (such as myself) will also be angry.
    And I already have a house, so the Tories don’t have anything to hold out for me. Fuck them.
    They may well be 38 in ten years time, however the Tories can still win a majority even if most of them vote Labour as long as they win most over 45s. Even when they get to 48 and even if most still vote Labour the Tories can still likely win most seats as long as they win most over 50s.

    In the past people have migrated to the Tories as they buy property, they still do today. The one exception was Blair in 1997 who won every generation including over 65s but that was a once in a century landslide defeat for the Tories unlikely ever to be repeated in my lifetime

    And when they’re 52 and would formerly be free of student loan debt and now have ten extra years to go, you think they’ll lunge for the Tories?

    I’ve got property, yet, mysteriously, I have no extra attraction to the Tories. Why should I? What benefit do I get from them? I’ve got my house now.

    Although if people don’t get free of student debt until they’re in their sixties, that’ll affect how much money they have to spend on property.

    And, of course, it’s not winner-takes-all in age groups. If you shift from, say, 45-40 behind in and age group to 55-30 behind, it’s not as if it’s no effect, even though you were losing before and would be losing again.
    By then Labour would likely have been in power and have removed it but the assets they have to protect will outweigh in terms of house value the remaining student loan debt left.

    As far as I can see you are an ideological leftwinger who would never vote Tory, so atypical, I am an ideological rightwinger who voted Tory even as a student, so atypical, I am talking the average voter.

    Nope.
    I voted Tory in 2005 and 2010. And supported the Coalition.
    Most of those who know me would laugh like a drain to hear me described as “an ideological leftwinger.”

    I can expound for hours on the superiority of free markets over state control. If pushed, I would have voted anyone-but-Corbyn both of the last two times. Someone who would be identified on any political spectrum as “Orange Book Liberal or Cameroon Conservative” is NOT who you should be pushing away.

    And describing as an “ideological leftwinger…” Heh.
    That’s funny. I think you tend to identify everyone who disagrees with you as that.
    So you voted Tory when they lost in 2005 and failed to win a majority in 2010 but did not vote Tory when they won majorities in 2015 and 2019. So again you are atypical.

    If you prefer free markets to state control that can just make you a liberal, it does not mean you are a Tory.

    We won a majority of 80 in 2019 when most Orange Book Liberals voted LD as did plenty of Cameron Conservatives because we won UKIP 2015 voters and Labour Leavers.

    According to your implied definition, only the swingiest of swing voters are “typical”
    Your definition has typical voters being a small minority.
    But I doubt you can even recognise that.

    Or that you’ve effectively acknowledged that for parents to ensure their children don’t lose out in life, they have to ensure the Tories are defeated.

    Not that the Tories would suddenly be flavour of the month after their policy is overturned or they lose power.

    Traditionally, the Lib Dems got students. Like traditionally the Tories got people as they aged. Traditions break.

    Just ask Nick Clegg or the Lib Dems how quick it is to be forgiven after screwing over students.
    Normally Labour got students actually, they just went LD under Charles Kennedy in 2005 and in 2010 in a brief protest over Blair's fees. They are back voting Labour again.

    As I pointed out similarly over 55s normally voted Tory but voted for Blair in 1997, then went back to voting Tory again and still vote Tory now
    I am not voting conservative unless they win my vote back, but then you have already excommunicated me along with many more who do not share your 1950 Little Englander outlook
    1950? He seems to view the Conservatives as the Tory Party of landed gentry, church and state of 1750.
    Though we don't hear so much about the Church (i.e. no Catholics) these days for some reason.

    More importantly, "go and join the other lot then" was the slogan of a certain type of Jez-loyalist; it's not a healthy sign in a political party.
    The Tories are a broader church as far as religion goes now, we had our first Catholic leader in IDS in 2001 and now have our second in Boris, the first Catholic PM in office, JRM is Roman Catholic as well. The Tories even won Catholics in 2019 even though Corbyn won them in 2017.

    However our core vote still remains Anglicans and Protestant evangelicals who the Tories won in 2017 and 2019. Jews also now vote Tory when they used to vote Labour with Howard in 2003 the first practicing Jewish Tory leader.

    Muslims and atheists however tend to be part of Labour's core vote, Corbyn won them in both 2017 and 2019
    So are Catholic Atheists more Labour leaning than Protestant Atheists?

    Thank Christ that we are not a nation where religion is not a strong indicator of voting intention.
    I would imagine Catholic atheists and agnostics are more Labour or SNP leaning than Protestant atheists and agnostics yes, especially as the former will more often come from Labour leaning areas like Liverpool, inner London, Birmingham and Glasgow
    24.3% in the Glasgow regional list in the 2021 election
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,967
    edited October 2021
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the budget there is a real cat and mouse game going on. The government hold the Commons in absolute contempt, used to blame Bercow for raising opposition and surely will soon start casting aspersions on Hoyle.

    Mister Speaker - as the previous title-holder demonstrated - has a wide range of measures available. Whilst Holye - unlike Bercow - isn't likely to make up rules as they go along and freestyle, there are swathes of rules he can deploy to smash down the government.

    It will be interesting to watch when this undoubtedly escalates into open warfare. The Leader of the House used to be the affable chap always quoting Erskine May to defend the rights of backbenchers against the government. How will he object to that very principle being slapped in his face...?

    'Smashed down the government' - bit over the top

    HMG should respect Parliament but the leaks have happened under every government.

    I expect Hoyle will have a go before the statement then the budget will dominate the agenda until COP26

    Bit over the top? The Spectator suggests that the Deputy Speaker simply thank Dishi for his Budget statement when he stands up and hands over to Starmer. And she could.

    Leaks have never - ever - happened on this scale for the budget. The entire budget. Briefed to the press. So that they had 3 days to report the juiciest sections.
    If Starmer's speech team are any good, the leaks ought to make his impossible job much easier. He knows what he's replying to.

    Admittedly, that's a fairly big if.

    Meanwhile, LBC are flagging the student loan thing (i.e. a tax rise that isn't technically a tax rise and magically only affects younger people)... That's not on, is it?
    As HYUFD will point out, young people generally do not vote Tory and are therefore fair game. If they didn't want to be taxed to death they should have voted Tory in 2019 - especially all the ones who were too young. If they had the best interests of the country would stop them now being taxed to death.
    In more seriousness, I’m 48, and not personally affected by this.
    But those arseholes are fucking over my daughters.

    If this does come to pass, I will be angrier with them than for a long time. But it will only last as long as my kids are affected. So, a little over forty years, if the rumours are true.
    And the Tories are going to be hoping that people will migrate to voting for them during the years that they are fucking them over.

    The Tories have not won under 35s since 1987.

    The Tories can win a majority as long as they win most over 45s and probably hold onto power as long as they win over 50s. Even now most people get on the property ladder by 40. They then have assets and so income taxes are less of an issue as they also have an asset's value to protect.

    I doubt Rishi will raise income tax however and I hope he does not
    28 year olds will be 38 in ten years time.
    Ten years later, they will be 48. And with still nearly 15 years left to pay, because the Tories will have retrospectively changed the terms of their loan.

    In the past, people have tended to migrate towards the Tories as they age. In the future, they will have far more reason not to migrate.

    Those who graduated before 2012 will be a diminishing share of the electorate.
    And, of course, parents of those (such as myself) will also be angry.
    And I already have a house, so the Tories don’t have anything to hold out for me. Fuck them.
    They may well be 38 in ten years time, however the Tories can still win a majority even if most of them vote Labour as long as they win most over 45s. Even when they get to 48 and even if most still vote Labour the Tories can still likely win most seats as long as they win most over 50s.

    In the past people have migrated to the Tories as they buy property, they still do today. The one exception was Blair in 1997 who won every generation including over 65s but that was a once in a century landslide defeat for the Tories unlikely ever to be repeated in my lifetime

    And when they’re 52 and would formerly be free of student loan debt and now have ten extra years to go, you think they’ll lunge for the Tories?

    I’ve got property, yet, mysteriously, I have no extra attraction to the Tories. Why should I? What benefit do I get from them? I’ve got my house now.

    Although if people don’t get free of student debt until they’re in their sixties, that’ll affect how much money they have to spend on property.

    And, of course, it’s not winner-takes-all in age groups. If you shift from, say, 45-40 behind in and age group to 55-30 behind, it’s not as if it’s no effect, even though you were losing before and would be losing again.
    By then Labour would likely have been in power and have removed it but the assets they have to protect will outweigh in terms of house value the remaining student loan debt left.

    As far as I can see you are an ideological leftwinger who would never vote Tory, so atypical, I am an ideological rightwinger who voted Tory even as a student, so atypical, I am talking the average voter.

    Nope.
    I voted Tory in 2005 and 2010. And supported the Coalition.
    Most of those who know me would laugh like a drain to hear me described as “an ideological leftwinger.”

    I can expound for hours on the superiority of free markets over state control. If pushed, I would have voted anyone-but-Corbyn both of the last two times. Someone who would be identified on any political spectrum as “Orange Book Liberal or Cameroon Conservative” is NOT who you should be pushing away.

    And describing as an “ideological leftwinger…” Heh.
    That’s funny. I think you tend to identify everyone who disagrees with you as that.
    So you voted Tory when they lost in 2005 and failed to win a majority in 2010 but did not vote Tory when they won majorities in 2015 and 2019. So again you are atypical.

    If you prefer free markets to state control that can just make you a liberal, it does not mean you are a Tory.

    We won a majority of 80 in 2019 when most Orange Book Liberals voted LD as did plenty of Cameron Conservatives because we won UKIP 2015 voters and Labour Leavers.

    According to your implied definition, only the swingiest of swing voters are “typical”
    Your definition has typical voters being a small minority.
    But I doubt you can even recognise that.

    Or that you’ve effectively acknowledged that for parents to ensure their children don’t lose out in life, they have to ensure the Tories are defeated.

    Not that the Tories would suddenly be flavour of the month after their policy is overturned or they lose power.

    Traditionally, the Lib Dems got students. Like traditionally the Tories got people as they aged. Traditions break.

    Just ask Nick Clegg or the Lib Dems how quick it is to be forgiven after screwing over students.
    Normally Labour got students actually, they just went LD under Charles Kennedy in 2005 and in 2010 in a brief protest over Blair's fees. They are back voting Labour again.

    As I pointed out similarly over 55s normally voted Tory but voted for Blair in 1997, then went back to voting Tory again and still vote Tory now
    I am not voting conservative unless they win my vote back, but then you have already excommunicated me along with many more who do not share your 1950 Little Englander outlook
    1950? He seems to view the Conservatives as the Tory Party of landed gentry, church and state of 1750.
    Though we don't hear so much about the Church (i.e. no Catholics) these days for some reason.

    More importantly, "go and join the other lot then" was the slogan of a certain type of Jez-loyalist; it's not a healthy sign in a political party.
    The Tories are a broader church as far as religion goes now, we had our first Catholic leader in IDS in 2001 and now have our second in Boris, the first Catholic PM in office, JRM is Roman Catholic as well. The Tories even won Catholics in 2019 even though Corbyn won them in 2017.

    However our core vote still remains Anglicans and Protestant evangelicals who the Tories won in 2017 and 2019. Jews also now vote Tory when they used to vote Labour with Howard in 2003 the first practicing Jewish Tory leader.

    Muslims and atheists however tend to be part of Labour's core vote, Corbyn won them in both 2017 and 2019
    So are Catholic Atheists more Labour leaning than Protestant Atheists?

    Thank Christ that we are not a nation where religion is not a strong indicator of voting intention.
    I would imagine Catholic heritage atheists and agnostics are more Labour or SNP leaning than Protestant heritage atheists and agnostics yes, especially as the former will more often come from Labour leaning areas like Liverpool, Salford, inner London, Birmingham and Glasgow
    Or are they more Labour leaning because they have more Catholic heritage voters? Chicken and egg.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,326
    TimS said:

    Just one last thought on the raw sewage debacle; apologies for posting on this again.
    It strikes me that the communities most affected, and pissed off, by the discharge of raw sewage into the sea are coastal communities. And although I haven't done the analysis, I'm pretty confident that the vast majority of those coastal communities have Tory MPs; some by slender margins. Very poor politics by the Tories.

    I think you're right about the costal thing- there are Brexity fishermen who flipped quite a few seats over the last couple of GEs.

    It's one of the curious things about this very populist government, though. They seem to have ears of tin and feet of lead for this sort of thing. (We saw something similar with the not-school lunches last year.)

    An issue comes up, the opposition make hay with it, the government tries to be strong, backbenchers go over the top to defend the indefensible, then a few days later the government climbs down. But at least some people will remember the bit where the government said it would do something awful.

    Like you say, poor politics, and it seems to be something habitual or structural.
    I think the reflex is to dismiss an issue as Twitter bubble if a. It appears mainly on social media, b. The people shouting most loudly about it are what they perceive as the metropolitan remoaners. It blinds them to the salience of the actual issue at hand. Hence they get it right sometimes, and woefully wrong at other times.

    Shit being dumped in the sea is such a physical, tangible, easily imagined thing it’s the perfect environmental cause célèbre. It’s also easy to compare the UK unfavourably with our neighbours. It’s up there with peat cutting or paving over wetlands in the visible despoiling stakes. The kind of thing there can never be too much noise made about, because there is no such thing as too little water pollution.
    It's causing a noticeable stir on Nextdoor, the least political of social media (a typical post is "I saw a stray dog with a green collar, might it be yours?") - lots of people asking how come Hunt abstained, why isn't he referring to it in his constituency emails? We're a long way from the sea, but people worry about rivers too.

    There are two levels to it. The not very political just think "the Government wants to let big companies dump shit in the sea? Yuck, probably it's their mates". The more political follow both the government argument that the companies would put prices up to pay for better practice, but also the opposition argument that they shouldn't have been left to pay fat dividends earlier and then run to the Government or consumers for a bailout. Same as as rail and energy companies.

    Nationalising natural monopolies used to be accepted wisdom - even my Tory parents felt that of course it makes sense. If they're run badly, you can change the government, but how do you change Southern Water? Almost nobody wants to nationalise something with genuine competition like Rice Krispies, but the case against monopolies makes itself.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,144

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    geoffw said:

    Farooq said:

    Thank God schools don’t bother with royal history now. I can think of almost nothing more tedious.

    It's slightly useful to give you a hook onto which you can hang the interesting history. For instance, the history of the church pivots on Henry VIII and the reason Alfred burned the cakes, if that even happened, was because he was on the run from the Danes. So it all links in. That said, you're right. It's dull as fuck just on its own.
    Move over history, it's herstory now.

    As in, herstory is nearly finished?
    Move over, Babs. It's time for Charles the Thick.
    Charles is not thick, in fact he will probably be our brightest monarch since Edward VIIth and our first Oxbridge graduate on the throne since his great great grandfather too who also had a reasonable but short reign overshadowed by that of his mother and son
    So you're saying the queen is thick? To the tower with you, young man. To the tower.
    Not thick, just not an intellectual like Charles
    Charles really isn’t that bright. He’s moderately intelligent, well read but few original thoughts. So much like the average person.
    The top royals have access to the more interesting people in society. But they don’t all make best use of it. See Harry. Charlie however proved himself decades ahead of the curve on the environment, the biggest global problem of the early 21st Century, and arguably too on housing policy.

    I don’t care much for the royal family as an institution but I’m quite looking forward to seeing what Charles will make of the role. Far more so than his nice but dim son.
    Yes, he may well be quite a good King.

    Not that we get any say in the matter. Its a close call that we are not having Prince Andrew as King.
    Would take a hell of an accident to get Andrew back to number one in the line of succession.
    Sooner or later we will get a really unpopular monarch, like Andrew. How many here would remain monarchists and grit their teeth for 20-30 years of King Andrew of equivalent? The system requires you to take the rough with the smooth.
    They forced Edward to abdicate. The system we have is that Parliament chooses the Monarch if it has to because the present incumbent is sufficiently intolerable.

    We pretend most of the time that this isn't the case, but if you had a really bad Monarch it is what has happened in the past, and it has been the sufficient degree of flexibility that has avoided a Republic.
  • Options

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    geoffw said:

    Farooq said:

    Thank God schools don’t bother with royal history now. I can think of almost nothing more tedious.

    It's slightly useful to give you a hook onto which you can hang the interesting history. For instance, the history of the church pivots on Henry VIII and the reason Alfred burned the cakes, if that even happened, was because he was on the run from the Danes. So it all links in. That said, you're right. It's dull as fuck just on its own.
    Move over history, it's herstory now.

    As in, herstory is nearly finished?
    Move over, Babs. It's time for Charles the Thick.
    Charles is not thick, in fact he will probably be our brightest monarch since Edward VIIth and our first Oxbridge graduate on the throne since his great great grandfather too who also had a reasonable but short reign overshadowed by that of his mother and son
    So you're saying the queen is thick? To the tower with you, young man. To the tower.
    Not thick, just not an intellectual like Charles
    Charles really isn’t that bright. He’s moderately intelligent, well read but few original thoughts. So much like the average person.
    The top royals have access to the more interesting people in society. But they don’t all make best use of it. See Harry. Charlie however proved himself decades ahead of the curve on the environment, the biggest global problem of the early 21st Century, and arguably too on housing policy.

    I don’t care much for the royal family as an institution but I’m quite looking forward to seeing what Charles will make of the role. Far more so than his nice but dim son.
    Yes, he may well be quite a good King.

    Not that we get any say in the matter. Its a close call that we are not having Prince Andrew as King.
    Would take a hell of an accident to get Andrew back to number one in the line of succession.
    Sooner or later we will get a really unpopular monarch, like Andrew. How many here would remain monarchists and grit their teeth for 20-30 years of King Andrew of equivalent? The system requires you to take the rough with the smooth.
    They forced Edward to abdicate. The system we have is that Parliament chooses the Monarch if it has to because the present incumbent is sufficiently intolerable.

    We pretend most of the time that this isn't the case, but if you had a really bad Monarch it is what has happened in the past, and it has been the sufficient degree of flexibility that has avoided a Republic.
    So do you expect Charles to abdicate?

    Or are we bound to a sequence of pensioner Kings who only ascend to the throne in their seventies or beyond too infirm to credibly do much for the country on the global stage as Her Majesty was able to do when she was younger?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,939

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    geoffw said:

    Farooq said:

    Thank God schools don’t bother with royal history now. I can think of almost nothing more tedious.

    It's slightly useful to give you a hook onto which you can hang the interesting history. For instance, the history of the church pivots on Henry VIII and the reason Alfred burned the cakes, if that even happened, was because he was on the run from the Danes. So it all links in. That said, you're right. It's dull as fuck just on its own.
    Move over history, it's herstory now.

    As in, herstory is nearly finished?
    Move over, Babs. It's time for Charles the Thick.
    Charles is not thick, in fact he will probably be our brightest monarch since Edward VIIth and our first Oxbridge graduate on the throne since his great great grandfather too who also had a reasonable but short reign overshadowed by that of his mother and son
    So you're saying the queen is thick? To the tower with you, young man. To the tower.
    Not thick, just not an intellectual like Charles
    Charles really isn’t that bright. He’s moderately intelligent, well read but few original thoughts. So much like the average person.
    The top royals have access to the more interesting people in society. But they don’t all make best use of it. See Harry. Charlie however proved himself decades ahead of the curve on the environment, the biggest global problem of the early 21st Century, and arguably too on housing policy.

    I don’t care much for the royal family as an institution but I’m quite looking forward to seeing what Charles will make of the role. Far more so than his nice but dim son.
    Yes, he may well be quite a good King.

    Not that we get any say in the matter. Its a close call that we are not having Prince Andrew as King.
    Would take a hell of an accident to get Andrew back to number one in the line of succession.
    Sooner or later we will get a really unpopular monarch, like Andrew. How many here would remain monarchists and grit their teeth for 20-30 years of King Andrew of equivalent? The system requires you to take the rough with the smooth.
    They forced Edward to abdicate. The system we have is that Parliament chooses the Monarch if it has to because the present incumbent is sufficiently intolerable.

    We pretend most of the time that this isn't the case, but if you had a really bad Monarch it is what has happened in the past, and it has been the sufficient degree of flexibility that has avoided a Republic.
    I applaud the pinhead dancing. The monarchy is a generic lottery. That’s it. If we have “a really bad monarch” Parliament can theoretically force them to abdicate in the hope that the next person on the fruit machine is a bowl of cherries. Fab!
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,144

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    geoffw said:

    Farooq said:

    Thank God schools don’t bother with royal history now. I can think of almost nothing more tedious.

    It's slightly useful to give you a hook onto which you can hang the interesting history. For instance, the history of the church pivots on Henry VIII and the reason Alfred burned the cakes, if that even happened, was because he was on the run from the Danes. So it all links in. That said, you're right. It's dull as fuck just on its own.
    Move over history, it's herstory now.

    As in, herstory is nearly finished?
    Move over, Babs. It's time for Charles the Thick.
    Charles is not thick, in fact he will probably be our brightest monarch since Edward VIIth and our first Oxbridge graduate on the throne since his great great grandfather too who also had a reasonable but short reign overshadowed by that of his mother and son
    So you're saying the queen is thick? To the tower with you, young man. To the tower.
    Not thick, just not an intellectual like Charles
    Charles really isn’t that bright. He’s moderately intelligent, well read but few original thoughts. So much like the average person.
    The top royals have access to the more interesting people in society. But they don’t all make best use of it. See Harry. Charlie however proved himself decades ahead of the curve on the environment, the biggest global problem of the early 21st Century, and arguably too on housing policy.

    I don’t care much for the royal family as an institution but I’m quite looking forward to seeing what Charles will make of the role. Far more so than his nice but dim son.
    Yes, he may well be quite a good King.

    Not that we get any say in the matter. Its a close call that we are not having Prince Andrew as King.
    Would take a hell of an accident to get Andrew back to number one in the line of succession.
    Sooner or later we will get a really unpopular monarch, like Andrew. How many here would remain monarchists and grit their teeth for 20-30 years of King Andrew of equivalent? The system requires you to take the rough with the smooth.
    They forced Edward to abdicate. The system we have is that Parliament chooses the Monarch if it has to because the present incumbent is sufficiently intolerable.

    We pretend most of the time that this isn't the case, but if you had a really bad Monarch it is what has happened in the past, and it has been the sufficient degree of flexibility that has avoided a Republic.
    So do you expect Charles to abdicate?

    Or are we bound to a sequence of pensioner Kings who only ascend to the throne in their seventies or beyond too infirm to credibly do much for the country on the global stage as Her Majesty was able to do when she was younger?
    If Charles interferes in politics sufficiently in the way that some Republicans hope will aid their cause I would expect him to be forced to abdicate to avoid that outcome.

    If he knuckles down and plays along then we'd be set for a succession of elderly monarchs, which I don't think is necessarily a problem in itself. There will always be a youngest generation to play its part.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,939

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    geoffw said:

    Farooq said:

    Thank God schools don’t bother with royal history now. I can think of almost nothing more tedious.

    It's slightly useful to give you a hook onto which you can hang the interesting history. For instance, the history of the church pivots on Henry VIII and the reason Alfred burned the cakes, if that even happened, was because he was on the run from the Danes. So it all links in. That said, you're right. It's dull as fuck just on its own.
    Move over history, it's herstory now.

    As in, herstory is nearly finished?
    Move over, Babs. It's time for Charles the Thick.
    Charles is not thick, in fact he will probably be our brightest monarch since Edward VIIth and our first Oxbridge graduate on the throne since his great great grandfather too who also had a reasonable but short reign overshadowed by that of his mother and son
    So you're saying the queen is thick? To the tower with you, young man. To the tower.
    Not thick, just not an intellectual like Charles
    Charles really isn’t that bright. He’s moderately intelligent, well read but few original thoughts. So much like the average person.
    The top royals have access to the more interesting people in society. But they don’t all make best use of it. See Harry. Charlie however proved himself decades ahead of the curve on the environment, the biggest global problem of the early 21st Century, and arguably too on housing policy.

    I don’t care much for the royal family as an institution but I’m quite looking forward to seeing what Charles will make of the role. Far more so than his nice but dim son.
    Yes, he may well be quite a good King.

    Not that we get any say in the matter. Its a close call that we are not having Prince Andrew as King.
    Would take a hell of an accident to get Andrew back to number one in the line of succession.
    Sooner or later we will get a really unpopular monarch, like Andrew. How many here would remain monarchists and grit their teeth for 20-30 years of King Andrew of equivalent? The system requires you to take the rough with the smooth.
    They forced Edward to abdicate. The system we have is that Parliament chooses the Monarch if it has to because the present incumbent is sufficiently intolerable.

    We pretend most of the time that this isn't the case, but if you had a really bad Monarch it is what has happened in the past, and it has been the sufficient degree of flexibility that has avoided a Republic.
    So do you expect Charles to abdicate?

    Or are we bound to a sequence of pensioner Kings who only ascend to the throne in their seventies or beyond too infirm to credibly do much for the country on the global stage as Her Majesty was able to do when she was younger?
    If Charles interferes in politics sufficiently in the way that some Republicans hope will aid their cause I would expect him to be forced to abdicate to avoid that outcome.

    If he knuckles down and plays along then we'd be set for a succession of elderly monarchs, which I don't think is necessarily a problem in itself. There will always be a youngest generation to play its part.
    I’m actually relatively sanguine about having a monarchy, I find the contortions monarchists have to adopt to defend the system so amusing it would be a shame to lose it.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,144
    edited October 2021

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    geoffw said:

    Farooq said:

    Thank God schools don’t bother with royal history now. I can think of almost nothing more tedious.

    It's slightly useful to give you a hook onto which you can hang the interesting history. For instance, the history of the church pivots on Henry VIII and the reason Alfred burned the cakes, if that even happened, was because he was on the run from the Danes. So it all links in. That said, you're right. It's dull as fuck just on its own.
    Move over history, it's herstory now.

    As in, herstory is nearly finished?
    Move over, Babs. It's time for Charles the Thick.
    Charles is not thick, in fact he will probably be our brightest monarch since Edward VIIth and our first Oxbridge graduate on the throne since his great great grandfather too who also had a reasonable but short reign overshadowed by that of his mother and son
    So you're saying the queen is thick? To the tower with you, young man. To the tower.
    Not thick, just not an intellectual like Charles
    Charles really isn’t that bright. He’s moderately intelligent, well read but few original thoughts. So much like the average person.
    The top royals have access to the more interesting people in society. But they don’t all make best use of it. See Harry. Charlie however proved himself decades ahead of the curve on the environment, the biggest global problem of the early 21st Century, and arguably too on housing policy.

    I don’t care much for the royal family as an institution but I’m quite looking forward to seeing what Charles will make of the role. Far more so than his nice but dim son.
    Yes, he may well be quite a good King.

    Not that we get any say in the matter. Its a close call that we are not having Prince Andrew as King.
    Would take a hell of an accident to get Andrew back to number one in the line of succession.
    Sooner or later we will get a really unpopular monarch, like Andrew. How many here would remain monarchists and grit their teeth for 20-30 years of King Andrew of equivalent? The system requires you to take the rough with the smooth.
    They forced Edward to abdicate. The system we have is that Parliament chooses the Monarch if it has to because the present incumbent is sufficiently intolerable.

    We pretend most of the time that this isn't the case, but if you had a really bad Monarch it is what has happened in the past, and it has been the sufficient degree of flexibility that has avoided a Republic.
    I applaud the pinhead dancing. The monarchy is a generic lottery. That’s it. If we have “a really bad monarch” Parliament can theoretically force them to abdicate in the hope that the next person on the fruit machine is a bowl of cherries. Fab!
    You misunderstand. I am no Monarchist.

    I'm just trying to explain to my fellow Republicans that waiting until there's an unpopular Monarch is a losing strategy, because we don't live under an inflexible absolute monarchy, but a flexible constitutional monarchy that's already managed to deal with inadequate/unpopular/dangerous monarchs.

    It's not the case that the country is at the mercy of a generic lottery because the succession is determined by Statute Law, and is therefore capable of being amended (as it was recently with the effect of putting Charlotte ahead of Louis in the line of succession).

    It's the institution of monarchy that monarchists are principally loyal to. Any individual monarch can be dispensed with if they threaten the institution.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,906
    No messing around with the US FDA

    FDA advisers voted 17-0 (1 abstain) in favor of authorization of the Pfizer #covid19 #vaccine for 5 to 11 year olds.
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    No messing around with the US FDA

    FDA advisers voted 17-0 (1 abstain) in favor of authorization of the Pfizer #covid19 #vaccine for 5 to 11 year olds.

    Not sure that's needed for the kids themselves, but given low vaccine takeup Stateside, that'll help blue cities and states achieve herd immunity.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,906
    Meanwhile I'd love to see the SEIR model that supports Finn's view here

    If you boost people before they need the vaccine, it could "actually run the risk of making things worse rather than better", warns Professor Adam Finn, a member of the JCVI Committee.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,906
    rcs1000 said:

    rpjs said:

    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Third like Charles

    Changing name on becoming king would be such an act of unforced out of touch wankerdom that I am pretty certain he'll do it and be Edward 9 or something.
    George VII would be favourite.

    Charles has unfortunate links to regicides and adulterers, Philip is complicated by the fact nobody is sure whether the other King Philip counts in regnal numbers, and all the Arthurs died before they could take the throne.
    Links to adulterers? I understood it was a bit closer to home than that!

    (Allegedly etc. My main source is 'The Crown')
    Wouldn't the person someone commits adultery with also be an adulterer?
    Not necessarily.

    Adultery is sleeping with someone who is not your spouse, no? The person one commits adultery with - assuming they are not married - is not committing adultery.

    Likewise, it's not premarital sex if you never get married.
    Hah. Not sure this err.. technicality would wash with my other half :D
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,983
    kjh said:



    Do think he got to Cambridge on his ability or his connections?

    Charles did 6 weeks at BRNC and was commissioned in the FAA. Aircrew and Warfare officers normally do a 49 week course. Even the 'Vicars and Tarts' short course is 30 weeks. I am sure that was entirely on merit too.
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    OT - so what odds can I get, for betting that CoE will NOT use ANY of these words or phrases:

    > aardvark
    > barfbag
    > catamite
    > dingleberry
    > earwax
    > flint dildo
    > gigolo
    > hermaphrodite
    > ipetigo
    > jockstrap
    > lickspittal
    > monkeynuts
    > necrophiliac
    > orifice
    > pee-pee
    > Quasimodo
    > rump roast
    > sex machine
    > toaster oven
    > urinal
    > vampire
    > wangdoodle
    > xylophone
    > yahoo
    > zither
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the budget there is a real cat and mouse game going on. The government hold the Commons in absolute contempt, used to blame Bercow for raising opposition and surely will soon start casting aspersions on Hoyle.

    Mister Speaker - as the previous title-holder demonstrated - has a wide range of measures available. Whilst Holye - unlike Bercow - isn't likely to make up rules as they go along and freestyle, there are swathes of rules he can deploy to smash down the government.

    It will be interesting to watch when this undoubtedly escalates into open warfare. The Leader of the House used to be the affable chap always quoting Erskine May to defend the rights of backbenchers against the government. How will he object to that very principle being slapped in his face...?

    'Smashed down the government' - bit over the top

    HMG should respect Parliament but the leaks have happened under every government.

    I expect Hoyle will have a go before the statement then the budget will dominate the agenda until COP26

    Bit over the top? The Spectator suggests that the Deputy Speaker simply thank Dishi for his Budget statement when he stands up and hands over to Starmer. And she could.

    Leaks have never - ever - happened on this scale for the budget. The entire budget. Briefed to the press. So that they had 3 days to report the juiciest sections.
    If Starmer's speech team are any good, the leaks ought to make his impossible job much easier. He knows what he's replying to.

    Admittedly, that's a fairly big if.

    Meanwhile, LBC are flagging the student loan thing (i.e. a tax rise that isn't technically a tax rise and magically only affects younger people)... That's not on, is it?
    As HYUFD will point out, young people generally do not vote Tory and are therefore fair game. If they didn't want to be taxed to death they should have voted Tory in 2019 - especially all the ones who were too young. If they had the best interests of the country would stop them now being taxed to death.
    In more seriousness, I’m 48, and not personally affected by this.
    But those arseholes are fucking over my daughters.

    If this does come to pass, I will be angrier with them than for a long time. But it will only last as long as my kids are affected. So, a little over forty years, if the rumours are true.
    And the Tories are going to be hoping that people will migrate to voting for them during the years that they are fucking them over.

    The Tories have not won under 35s since 1987.

    The Tories can win a majority as long as they win most over 45s and probably hold onto power as long as they win over 50s. Even now most people get on the property ladder by 40. They then have assets and so income taxes are less of an issue as they also have an asset's value to protect.

    I doubt Rishi will raise income tax however and I hope he does not
    28 year olds will be 38 in ten years time.
    Ten years later, they will be 48. And with still nearly 15 years left to pay, because the Tories will have retrospectively changed the terms of their loan.

    In the past, people have tended to migrate towards the Tories as they age. In the future, they will have far more reason not to migrate.

    Those who graduated before 2012 will be a diminishing share of the electorate.
    And, of course, parents of those (such as myself) will also be angry.
    And I already have a house, so the Tories don’t have anything to hold out for me. Fuck them.
    They may well be 38 in ten years time, however the Tories can still win a majority even if most of them vote Labour as long as they win most over 45s. Even when they get to 48 and even if most still vote Labour the Tories can still likely win most seats as long as they win most over 50s.

    In the past people have migrated to the Tories as they buy property, they still do today. The one exception was Blair in 1997 who won every generation including over 65s but that was a once in a century landslide defeat for the Tories unlikely ever to be repeated in my lifetime

    And when they’re 52 and would formerly be free of student loan debt and now have ten extra years to go, you think they’ll lunge for the Tories?

    I’ve got property, yet, mysteriously, I have no extra attraction to the Tories. Why should I? What benefit do I get from them? I’ve got my house now.

    Although if people don’t get free of student debt until they’re in their sixties, that’ll affect how much money they have to spend on property.

    And, of course, it’s not winner-takes-all in age groups. If you shift from, say, 45-40 behind in and age group to 55-30 behind, it’s not as if it’s no effect, even though you were losing before and would be losing again.
    By then Labour would likely have been in power and have removed it but the assets they have to protect will outweigh in terms of house value the remaining student loan debt left.

    As far as I can see you are an ideological leftwinger who would never vote Tory, so atypical, I am an ideological rightwinger who voted Tory even as a student, so atypical, I am talking the average voter.

    Nope.
    I voted Tory in 2005 and 2010. And supported the Coalition.
    Most of those who know me would laugh like a drain to hear me described as “an ideological leftwinger.”

    I can expound for hours on the superiority of free markets over state control. If pushed, I would have voted anyone-but-Corbyn both of the last two times. Someone who would be identified on any political spectrum as “Orange Book Liberal or Cameroon Conservative” is NOT who you should be pushing away.

    And describing as an “ideological leftwinger…” Heh.
    That’s funny. I think you tend to identify everyone who disagrees with you as that.
    So you voted Tory when they lost in 2005 and failed to win a majority in 2010 but did not vote Tory when they won majorities in 2015 and 2019. So again you are atypical.

    If you prefer free markets to state control that can just make you a liberal, it does not mean you are a Tory.

    We won a majority of 80 in 2019 when most Orange Book Liberals voted LD as did plenty of Cameron Conservatives because we won UKIP 2015 voters and Labour Leavers.

    According to your implied definition, only the swingiest of swing voters are “typical”
    Your definition has typical voters being a small minority.
    But I doubt you can even recognise that.

    Or that you’ve effectively acknowledged that for parents to ensure their children don’t lose out in life, they have to ensure the Tories are defeated.

    Not that the Tories would suddenly be flavour of the month after their policy is overturned or they lose power.

    Traditionally, the Lib Dems got students. Like traditionally the Tories got people as they aged. Traditions break.

    Just ask Nick Clegg or the Lib Dems how quick it is to be forgiven after screwing over students.
    Normally Labour got students actually, they just went LD under Charles Kennedy in 2005 and in 2010 in a brief protest over Blair's fees. They are back voting Labour again.

    As I pointed out similarly over 55s normally voted Tory but voted for Blair in 1997, then went back to voting Tory again and still vote Tory now
    I am not voting conservative unless they win my vote back, but then you have already excommunicated me along with many more who do not share your 1950 Little Englander outlook
    1950? He seems to view the Conservatives as the Tory Party of landed gentry, church and state of 1750.
    The Tory Party of 1750 accepted the results of elections.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,149

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    geoffw said:

    Farooq said:

    Thank God schools don’t bother with royal history now. I can think of almost nothing more tedious.

    It's slightly useful to give you a hook onto which you can hang the interesting history. For instance, the history of the church pivots on Henry VIII and the reason Alfred burned the cakes, if that even happened, was because he was on the run from the Danes. So it all links in. That said, you're right. It's dull as fuck just on its own.
    Move over history, it's herstory now.

    As in, herstory is nearly finished?
    Move over, Babs. It's time for Charles the Thick.
    Charles is not thick, in fact he will probably be our brightest monarch since Edward VIIth and our first Oxbridge graduate on the throne since his great great grandfather too who also had a reasonable but short reign overshadowed by that of his mother and son
    So you're saying the queen is thick? To the tower with you, young man. To the tower.
    Not thick, just not an intellectual like Charles
    Charles really isn’t that bright. He’s moderately intelligent, well read but few original thoughts. So much like the average person.
    The top royals have access to the more interesting people in society. But they don’t all make best use of it. See Harry. Charlie however proved himself decades ahead of the curve on the environment, the biggest global problem of the early 21st Century, and arguably too on housing policy.

    I don’t care much for the royal family as an institution but I’m quite looking forward to seeing what Charles will make of the role. Far more so than his nice but dim son.
    Yes, he may well be quite a good King.

    Not that we get any say in the matter. Its a close call that we are not having Prince Andrew as King.
    Would take a hell of an accident to get Andrew back to number one in the line of succession.
    Sooner or later we will get a really unpopular monarch, like Andrew. How many here would remain monarchists and grit their teeth for 20-30 years of King Andrew of equivalent? The system requires you to take the rough with the smooth.
    They forced Edward to abdicate. The system we have is that Parliament chooses the Monarch if it has to because the present incumbent is sufficiently intolerable.

    We pretend most of the time that this isn't the case, but if you had a really bad Monarch it is what has happened in the past, and it has been the sufficient degree of flexibility that has avoided a Republic.
    So do you expect Charles to abdicate?

    Or are we bound to a sequence of pensioner Kings who only ascend to the throne in their seventies or beyond too infirm to credibly do much for the country on the global stage as Her Majesty was able to do when she was younger?
    The rules of succession are a social construct, they only exist to create an unambiguous schelling point. If we're all ready for the passing of Queen Elizabeth with our "long live Queen Judy Dench" tweets there's no need for any of this Charles business.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    geoffw said:

    Farooq said:

    Thank God schools don’t bother with royal history now. I can think of almost nothing more tedious.

    It's slightly useful to give you a hook onto which you can hang the interesting history. For instance, the history of the church pivots on Henry VIII and the reason Alfred burned the cakes, if that even happened, was because he was on the run from the Danes. So it all links in. That said, you're right. It's dull as fuck just on its own.
    Move over history, it's herstory now.

    As in, herstory is nearly finished?
    Move over, Babs. It's time for Charles the Thick.
    Charles is not thick, in fact he will probably be our brightest monarch since Edward VIIth and our first Oxbridge graduate on the throne since his great great grandfather too who also had a reasonable but short reign overshadowed by that of his mother and son
    So you're saying the queen is thick? To the tower with you, young man. To the tower.
    Not thick, just not an intellectual like Charles
    Charles really isn’t that bright. He’s moderately intelligent, well read but few original thoughts. So much like the average person.
    The top royals have access to the more interesting people in society. But they don’t all make best use of it. See Harry. Charlie however proved himself decades ahead of the curve on the environment, the biggest global problem of the early 21st Century, and arguably too on housing policy.

    I don’t care much for the royal family as an institution but I’m quite looking forward to seeing what Charles will make of the role. Far more so than his nice but dim son.
    Yes, he may well be quite a good King.

    Not that we get any say in the matter. Its a close call that we are not having Prince Andrew as King.
    Would take a hell of an accident to get Andrew back to number one in the line of succession.
    No, but a horse riding accident in the 1970s or similar would have done it.
    The Saxons had it right in choosing the most suitable heir for the job and buying off the rest. It was the bastard from normandy that insisted on the roulette of primogeniture.
    Interestingly that isn’t correct. William II Rufus, for example, was the second son of William the Conqueror. Stephen was elected by the barons in default of a male heir to Henry I.

    It wasn’t until the reign of Edward III that succession was formalised as male-line primogeniture, and that was as much as anything a response to the French Salic Law designed to freeze him out of succession to the French throne when the House of Capet died out.

    Ironically, this supposed settling of the constitutional question was then to cause endless trouble during the Wars of the Roses in both 1460 and 1483. To the extent that Henry VIII, lacking a male heir, actually repealed it and said he had the right to nominate his successor. A power ultimately used by Elizabeth I to nominate James even though the Grey family arguably had a better claim on paper.

    Subsequently monarchs were elected in 1688 and in 1714 setting aside the claims of direct primogeniture.

    It wasn’t until the Act of Settlement was first used on the latter date that primogeniture became the actual law.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,973
    Good morning, everyone.

    The Time Traveller's Guide to Restoration Britain, by Ian Mortimer, is 'set' in the time of Charles II and well worth a read. It's impressive how the king managed to have so many children, yet not one of them was a legitimate heir (I believe one or two might have been lost, alas, but the survivors were all bastards).
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,960
    edited October 2021
    ydoethur said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    geoffw said:

    Farooq said:

    Thank God schools don’t bother with royal history now. I can think of almost nothing more tedious.

    It's slightly useful to give you a hook onto which you can hang the interesting history. For instance, the history of the church pivots on Henry VIII and the reason Alfred burned the cakes, if that even happened, was because he was on the run from the Danes. So it all links in. That said, you're right. It's dull as fuck just on its own.
    Move over history, it's herstory now.

    As in, herstory is nearly finished?
    Move over, Babs. It's time for Charles the Thick.
    Charles is not thick, in fact he will probably be our brightest monarch since Edward VIIth and our first Oxbridge graduate on the throne since his great great grandfather too who also had a reasonable but short reign overshadowed by that of his mother and son
    So you're saying the queen is thick? To the tower with you, young man. To the tower.
    Not thick, just not an intellectual like Charles
    Charles really isn’t that bright. He’s moderately intelligent, well read but few original thoughts. So much like the average person.
    The top royals have access to the more interesting people in society. But they don’t all make best use of it. See Harry. Charlie however proved himself decades ahead of the curve on the environment, the biggest global problem of the early 21st Century, and arguably too on housing policy.

    I don’t care much for the royal family as an institution but I’m quite looking forward to seeing what Charles will make of the role. Far more so than his nice but dim son.
    Yes, he may well be quite a good King.

    Not that we get any say in the matter. Its a close call that we are not having Prince Andrew as King.
    Would take a hell of an accident to get Andrew back to number one in the line of succession.
    No, but a horse riding accident in the 1970s or similar would have done it.
    The Saxons had it right in choosing the most suitable heir for the job and buying off the rest. It was the bastard from normandy that insisted on the roulette of primogeniture.
    Interestingly that isn’t correct. William II Rufus, for example, was the second son of William the Conqueror. Stephen was elected by the barons in default of a male heir to Henry I.

    It wasn’t until the reign of Edward III that succession was formalised as male-line primogeniture, and that was as much as anything a response to the French Salic Law designed to freeze him out of succession to the French throne when the House of Capet died out.

    Ironically, this supposed settling of the constitutional question was then to cause endless trouble during the Wars of the Roses in both 1460 and 1483. To the extent that Henry VIII, lacking a male heir, actually repealed it and said he had the right to nominate his successor. A power ultimately used by Elizabeth I to nominate James even though the Grey family arguably had a better claim on paper.

    Subsequently monarchs were elected in 1688 and in 1714 setting aside the claims of direct primogeniture.

    It wasn’t until the Act of Settlement was first used on the latter date that primogeniture became the actual law.
    Wasn't there a 'situation' around Wars of the Roses time when there was considerable doubt over whether a son of the Queen had actually been fathered by the King?

    And who would have been King in 1688 if James II (IIRC) hadn't become monarch?

    And Good Morning one and all. Although OKC is feeling his age somewhat today, having had a 'small' fall yesterday.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    Good morning, everyone.

    The Time Traveller's Guide to Restoration Britain, by Ian Mortimer, is 'set' in the time of Charles II and well worth a read. It's impressive how the king managed to have so many children, yet not one of them was a legitimate heir (I believe one or two might have been lost, alas, but the survivors were all bastards).

    Particularly Monmouth. Cowardly one too.
This discussion has been closed.